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000
FXUS63 KLMK 311933
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an abnormally
amplified regime for late July, as an eastern trough/western ridge
pattern continues.  This general pattern will continue through the
short term period.

A few vertical cumulus clouds are showing up on the latest visible
imagery this afternoon, especially down across southern KY near the
Bowling Green area.  While a stray shower or sprinkle is possible
from these clouds, coverage does not appear high enough to warrant a
mention in the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon.  Highs
look to top out in the middle 80s.

Clouds will dissipate tonight with the setting sun.  While there may
be some more mid and high level clouds pushing into portions of
southern and southeastern KY, still think most locations will remain
partly cloudy to mostly clear.  Therefore, expect another cool night
as lows fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

On Friday, some guidance continues to try and hint at some
precipitation potential.  However, looking at PWATs, there appears
to be a pocket of dry air that remains in place across north-central
KY and southern IN, which will likely help limit coverage.  Think
the best potential of showers/isolated storms will be across the far
western CWA where an incoming PV anomaly will help provide lift and
in the far eastern CWA where deeper moisture will reside.  Was not
confident enough to take precipitation completely out of the
forecast for central regions of the CWA (including the Louisville
metro), but suspect these areas will remain dry given limited
forcing and moisture (hi-res WRF-ARW supports this thinking).
Deep moisture will increase somewhat (PWATs go to 1.5 inches) on
Friday night ahead of a PV anomaly diving through the mean trough.
However, given the tendency for cold core showers to be diurnally
driven, still think most will remain dry.  Will once again only
leave in very slim chances for Friday night.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Upper trough looks to dominate throughout the early half of the
long-term period. With vort maxes rotating through, the Ohio Valley
will be left in an unsettled pattern through the weekend. The focus
for thunderstorms will be over much of the forecast area on
Saturday, primarily during the peak heating of the day but slight
chances in the night period (primarily evening hours) cannot be
ruled out. For Sunday, the eastern half of the forecast area could
see some slight thunderstorm chances. Only slight chance because the
trough axis, vort max, and moisture will be moving eastward. Sunday
night through Wednesday looks to be dry as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface fights for
control.

High pressure will be getting pushed out as deterministic models
indicate a low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Midwest.
Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF have come into some agreement with
the placement of the low, having it remain well to the north of this
forecast area, tracking through the Great Lakes toward the end of
this forecast period. A frontal boundary will accompany this low and
provide a focus for additional thunderstorm chances. Details this
far out are somewhat unreliable but PoPs currently look to enter in
from the NW late Wednesday with more widespread chances Thursday.

Temperatures will attempt to return to near normal for this time of
year early next week. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will vie to be
some of the lowest of the period, ranging in the low to mid 80s.
Highs on Monday through Wednesday will be close to or exceeding 90
degrees. Thursday currently looks to be somewhere in between with
highs in the mid to upper 80s but will likely be dependent on cloud
cover/precip and placement of the front. Lows shouldn`t fluctuate
too much, generally in the 60s throughout the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in control, allowing for just some scattered
cumulus to develop once again this afternoon.  These cumulus will
largely dissipate tonight, however some mid and upper level
cloudiness may push into mainly KLEX and KBWG overnight into
Friday.  Winds through the period will remain rather light and
variable.  Depending on the amount of incoming cloud cover
overnight, some light fog may briefly develop once again at KLEX,
but given dewpoints mixing out into the middle 50s this afternoon,
will leave out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311933
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an abnormally
amplified regime for late July, as an eastern trough/western ridge
pattern continues.  This general pattern will continue through the
short term period.

A few vertical cumulus clouds are showing up on the latest visible
imagery this afternoon, especially down across southern KY near the
Bowling Green area.  While a stray shower or sprinkle is possible
from these clouds, coverage does not appear high enough to warrant a
mention in the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon.  Highs
look to top out in the middle 80s.

Clouds will dissipate tonight with the setting sun.  While there may
be some more mid and high level clouds pushing into portions of
southern and southeastern KY, still think most locations will remain
partly cloudy to mostly clear.  Therefore, expect another cool night
as lows fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

On Friday, some guidance continues to try and hint at some
precipitation potential.  However, looking at PWATs, there appears
to be a pocket of dry air that remains in place across north-central
KY and southern IN, which will likely help limit coverage.  Think
the best potential of showers/isolated storms will be across the far
western CWA where an incoming PV anomaly will help provide lift and
in the far eastern CWA where deeper moisture will reside.  Was not
confident enough to take precipitation completely out of the
forecast for central regions of the CWA (including the Louisville
metro), but suspect these areas will remain dry given limited
forcing and moisture (hi-res WRF-ARW supports this thinking).
Deep moisture will increase somewhat (PWATs go to 1.5 inches) on
Friday night ahead of a PV anomaly diving through the mean trough.
However, given the tendency for cold core showers to be diurnally
driven, still think most will remain dry.  Will once again only
leave in very slim chances for Friday night.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Upper trough looks to dominate throughout the early half of the
long-term period. With vort maxes rotating through, the Ohio Valley
will be left in an unsettled pattern through the weekend. The focus
for thunderstorms will be over much of the forecast area on
Saturday, primarily during the peak heating of the day but slight
chances in the night period (primarily evening hours) cannot be
ruled out. For Sunday, the eastern half of the forecast area could
see some slight thunderstorm chances. Only slight chance because the
trough axis, vort max, and moisture will be moving eastward. Sunday
night through Wednesday looks to be dry as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface fights for
control.

High pressure will be getting pushed out as deterministic models
indicate a low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Midwest.
Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF have come into some agreement with
the placement of the low, having it remain well to the north of this
forecast area, tracking through the Great Lakes toward the end of
this forecast period. A frontal boundary will accompany this low and
provide a focus for additional thunderstorm chances. Details this
far out are somewhat unreliable but PoPs currently look to enter in
from the NW late Wednesday with more widespread chances Thursday.

Temperatures will attempt to return to near normal for this time of
year early next week. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will vie to be
some of the lowest of the period, ranging in the low to mid 80s.
Highs on Monday through Wednesday will be close to or exceeding 90
degrees. Thursday currently looks to be somewhere in between with
highs in the mid to upper 80s but will likely be dependent on cloud
cover/precip and placement of the front. Lows shouldn`t fluctuate
too much, generally in the 60s throughout the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in control, allowing for just some scattered
cumulus to develop once again this afternoon.  These cumulus will
largely dissipate tonight, however some mid and upper level
cloudiness may push into mainly KLEX and KBWG overnight into
Friday.  Winds through the period will remain rather light and
variable.  Depending on the amount of incoming cloud cover
overnight, some light fog may briefly develop once again at KLEX,
but given dewpoints mixing out into the middle 50s this afternoon,
will leave out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311933
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an abnormally
amplified regime for late July, as an eastern trough/western ridge
pattern continues.  This general pattern will continue through the
short term period.

A few vertical cumulus clouds are showing up on the latest visible
imagery this afternoon, especially down across southern KY near the
Bowling Green area.  While a stray shower or sprinkle is possible
from these clouds, coverage does not appear high enough to warrant a
mention in the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon.  Highs
look to top out in the middle 80s.

Clouds will dissipate tonight with the setting sun.  While there may
be some more mid and high level clouds pushing into portions of
southern and southeastern KY, still think most locations will remain
partly cloudy to mostly clear.  Therefore, expect another cool night
as lows fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

On Friday, some guidance continues to try and hint at some
precipitation potential.  However, looking at PWATs, there appears
to be a pocket of dry air that remains in place across north-central
KY and southern IN, which will likely help limit coverage.  Think
the best potential of showers/isolated storms will be across the far
western CWA where an incoming PV anomaly will help provide lift and
in the far eastern CWA where deeper moisture will reside.  Was not
confident enough to take precipitation completely out of the
forecast for central regions of the CWA (including the Louisville
metro), but suspect these areas will remain dry given limited
forcing and moisture (hi-res WRF-ARW supports this thinking).
Deep moisture will increase somewhat (PWATs go to 1.5 inches) on
Friday night ahead of a PV anomaly diving through the mean trough.
However, given the tendency for cold core showers to be diurnally
driven, still think most will remain dry.  Will once again only
leave in very slim chances for Friday night.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Upper trough looks to dominate throughout the early half of the
long-term period. With vort maxes rotating through, the Ohio Valley
will be left in an unsettled pattern through the weekend. The focus
for thunderstorms will be over much of the forecast area on
Saturday, primarily during the peak heating of the day but slight
chances in the night period (primarily evening hours) cannot be
ruled out. For Sunday, the eastern half of the forecast area could
see some slight thunderstorm chances. Only slight chance because the
trough axis, vort max, and moisture will be moving eastward. Sunday
night through Wednesday looks to be dry as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface fights for
control.

High pressure will be getting pushed out as deterministic models
indicate a low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Midwest.
Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF have come into some agreement with
the placement of the low, having it remain well to the north of this
forecast area, tracking through the Great Lakes toward the end of
this forecast period. A frontal boundary will accompany this low and
provide a focus for additional thunderstorm chances. Details this
far out are somewhat unreliable but PoPs currently look to enter in
from the NW late Wednesday with more widespread chances Thursday.

Temperatures will attempt to return to near normal for this time of
year early next week. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will vie to be
some of the lowest of the period, ranging in the low to mid 80s.
Highs on Monday through Wednesday will be close to or exceeding 90
degrees. Thursday currently looks to be somewhere in between with
highs in the mid to upper 80s but will likely be dependent on cloud
cover/precip and placement of the front. Lows shouldn`t fluctuate
too much, generally in the 60s throughout the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in control, allowing for just some scattered
cumulus to develop once again this afternoon.  These cumulus will
largely dissipate tonight, however some mid and upper level
cloudiness may push into mainly KLEX and KBWG overnight into
Friday.  Winds through the period will remain rather light and
variable.  Depending on the amount of incoming cloud cover
overnight, some light fog may briefly develop once again at KLEX,
but given dewpoints mixing out into the middle 50s this afternoon,
will leave out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311933
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an abnormally
amplified regime for late July, as an eastern trough/western ridge
pattern continues.  This general pattern will continue through the
short term period.

A few vertical cumulus clouds are showing up on the latest visible
imagery this afternoon, especially down across southern KY near the
Bowling Green area.  While a stray shower or sprinkle is possible
from these clouds, coverage does not appear high enough to warrant a
mention in the forecast for the remainder of the afternoon.  Highs
look to top out in the middle 80s.

Clouds will dissipate tonight with the setting sun.  While there may
be some more mid and high level clouds pushing into portions of
southern and southeastern KY, still think most locations will remain
partly cloudy to mostly clear.  Therefore, expect another cool night
as lows fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s.

On Friday, some guidance continues to try and hint at some
precipitation potential.  However, looking at PWATs, there appears
to be a pocket of dry air that remains in place across north-central
KY and southern IN, which will likely help limit coverage.  Think
the best potential of showers/isolated storms will be across the far
western CWA where an incoming PV anomaly will help provide lift and
in the far eastern CWA where deeper moisture will reside.  Was not
confident enough to take precipitation completely out of the
forecast for central regions of the CWA (including the Louisville
metro), but suspect these areas will remain dry given limited
forcing and moisture (hi-res WRF-ARW supports this thinking).
Deep moisture will increase somewhat (PWATs go to 1.5 inches) on
Friday night ahead of a PV anomaly diving through the mean trough.
However, given the tendency for cold core showers to be diurnally
driven, still think most will remain dry.  Will once again only
leave in very slim chances for Friday night.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Upper trough looks to dominate throughout the early half of the
long-term period. With vort maxes rotating through, the Ohio Valley
will be left in an unsettled pattern through the weekend. The focus
for thunderstorms will be over much of the forecast area on
Saturday, primarily during the peak heating of the day but slight
chances in the night period (primarily evening hours) cannot be
ruled out. For Sunday, the eastern half of the forecast area could
see some slight thunderstorm chances. Only slight chance because the
trough axis, vort max, and moisture will be moving eastward. Sunday
night through Wednesday looks to be dry as the pattern transitions
to zonal flow aloft and high pressure at the surface fights for
control.

High pressure will be getting pushed out as deterministic models
indicate a low ejecting out of the Rockies and into the Midwest.
Both the 12Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF have come into some agreement with
the placement of the low, having it remain well to the north of this
forecast area, tracking through the Great Lakes toward the end of
this forecast period. A frontal boundary will accompany this low and
provide a focus for additional thunderstorm chances. Details this
far out are somewhat unreliable but PoPs currently look to enter in
from the NW late Wednesday with more widespread chances Thursday.

Temperatures will attempt to return to near normal for this time of
year early next week. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will vie to be
some of the lowest of the period, ranging in the low to mid 80s.
Highs on Monday through Wednesday will be close to or exceeding 90
degrees. Thursday currently looks to be somewhere in between with
highs in the mid to upper 80s but will likely be dependent on cloud
cover/precip and placement of the front. Lows shouldn`t fluctuate
too much, generally in the 60s throughout the long-term.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in control, allowing for just some scattered
cumulus to develop once again this afternoon.  These cumulus will
largely dissipate tonight, however some mid and upper level
cloudiness may push into mainly KLEX and KBWG overnight into
Friday.  Winds through the period will remain rather light and
variable.  Depending on the amount of incoming cloud cover
overnight, some light fog may briefly develop once again at KLEX,
but given dewpoints mixing out into the middle 50s this afternoon,
will leave out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........KJD




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 311911
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the vicinity of the PAH forecast area, the flow aloft and at the
sfc is forecast by the deterministic med range models to slowly
weaken over the weekend as the influence of an expansive wrn/central
CONUS ridge increases into next week. A ridge of high pressure at
the sfc is not expected to move much through mid week. Thus, stable,
dry weather will prevail for most of the extended period. Little
moisture or temp advection is expected, just the diurnal heating
effects of the summer sun, which will result in slowly increasing
temps and little change in the lower 60s dewpoints until Day 7 (Thu).

As early as Wed night, the nwrn counties may pick up a few showers
or tstms as mid level shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow begins to
enter the center of the country. Sfc low pressure will be associated
with this feature, so by then there will be an increased sfc
pressure gradient across the PAH forecast area. Better swrly low
level flow should result in an accompanying increase in available
moisture and instability for scattered shower and tstm development
across the region by daytime Thu. There is some variability in the
deterministic models as to the speed of the system at this time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 311911
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the vicinity of the PAH forecast area, the flow aloft and at the
sfc is forecast by the deterministic med range models to slowly
weaken over the weekend as the influence of an expansive wrn/central
CONUS ridge increases into next week. A ridge of high pressure at
the sfc is not expected to move much through mid week. Thus, stable,
dry weather will prevail for most of the extended period. Little
moisture or temp advection is expected, just the diurnal heating
effects of the summer sun, which will result in slowly increasing
temps and little change in the lower 60s dewpoints until Day 7 (Thu).

As early as Wed night, the nwrn counties may pick up a few showers
or tstms as mid level shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow begins to
enter the center of the country. Sfc low pressure will be associated
with this feature, so by then there will be an increased sfc
pressure gradient across the PAH forecast area. Better swrly low
level flow should result in an accompanying increase in available
moisture and instability for scattered shower and tstm development
across the region by daytime Thu. There is some variability in the
deterministic models as to the speed of the system at this time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 311911
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the vicinity of the PAH forecast area, the flow aloft and at the
sfc is forecast by the deterministic med range models to slowly
weaken over the weekend as the influence of an expansive wrn/central
CONUS ridge increases into next week. A ridge of high pressure at
the sfc is not expected to move much through mid week. Thus, stable,
dry weather will prevail for most of the extended period. Little
moisture or temp advection is expected, just the diurnal heating
effects of the summer sun, which will result in slowly increasing
temps and little change in the lower 60s dewpoints until Day 7 (Thu).

As early as Wed night, the nwrn counties may pick up a few showers
or tstms as mid level shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow begins to
enter the center of the country. Sfc low pressure will be associated
with this feature, so by then there will be an increased sfc
pressure gradient across the PAH forecast area. Better swrly low
level flow should result in an accompanying increase in available
moisture and instability for scattered shower and tstm development
across the region by daytime Thu. There is some variability in the
deterministic models as to the speed of the system at this time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 311911
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
211 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

In the vicinity of the PAH forecast area, the flow aloft and at the
sfc is forecast by the deterministic med range models to slowly
weaken over the weekend as the influence of an expansive wrn/central
CONUS ridge increases into next week. A ridge of high pressure at
the sfc is not expected to move much through mid week. Thus, stable,
dry weather will prevail for most of the extended period. Little
moisture or temp advection is expected, just the diurnal heating
effects of the summer sun, which will result in slowly increasing
temps and little change in the lower 60s dewpoints until Day 7 (Thu).

As early as Wed night, the nwrn counties may pick up a few showers
or tstms as mid level shrtwv energy in the nrn stream flow begins to
enter the center of the country. Sfc low pressure will be associated
with this feature, so by then there will be an increased sfc
pressure gradient across the PAH forecast area. Better swrly low
level flow should result in an accompanying increase in available
moisture and instability for scattered shower and tstm development
across the region by daytime Thu. There is some variability in the
deterministic models as to the speed of the system at this time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







  [top]

000
FXUS63 KJKL 311835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER AND TEMPS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT THE TAFS TO STAY MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE AVIATION PERIOD AS
CLOUDS AROUND 4K FEET BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
STAY THAT WAY INTO FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
KENTUCKY. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FOG IN THE VALLEY SPOTS LATE TONIGHT
INTO DAWN SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT SME AND LOZ. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A weak disturbance moving into the lower MS river valley is/will
result in smallish overrunning Pops for mainly srn ptns SEMO and
far swky thru this evening. Meanwhile, a 2ndary trof axis will
evolve upon approach Friday, making passage this weekend. That too
will result in smallish Pops for the area, ending in the east by
12Z Sunday as the primary trof clears. Until then, temps
moderating to the mid-upr 80s for highs, and mid-upr 60s for lows,
with corresponding dew points in the 60s, will warrant a
continuing slgt-small chance Pop in the short term portion of the
forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 122 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

A disturbance moving south of the flight terminals will result in
overrunning low vfr cigs for kcgi/kpah, and perhaps tempo or
conditional clouding into the mvfr range briefly late this pm or
evening. Also, late night-early tmrw morning mvfr fog is possible,
at all terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

A broad immobile longwave 500mb trough continues over the Great
Lakes, seemingly locked in place be bracketing ridges over the
inland Pacific Northwest and the eastern Atlantic. This trough will
not move much during the next several days.

Currently, a shortwave trough and corresponding inverted surface
front is moving through northern Texas. This feature will continue
to dig southeast around the longwave trough over the Lakes. Rain and
cloud cover will miss to our south, with widespread showers expected
over Arkansas and southern Missouri late this afternoon, spreading
east across the northern Gulf States by Friday afternoon.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will remain in a benign
weather pattern for the next several days. A light pressure gradient
will lead to nearly calm winds at night and light winds each
afternoon. Expect westerly winds this afternoon at around 5 mph,
becoming light northeasterly by Friday afternoon. High cloudiness
associated with the Texas shortwave will erode by morning, with just
some afternoon fair weather cumulus developing both today and Friday
afternoons. Will continue just a slight chance of some isolated
thunder Friday afternoon.

Under the influence of a modifying trough, temperatures will rise a
couple of degrees today and Friday, but still remaining a few
degrees below normal. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s, with
lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

=============================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
=============================

In the long term, a rather amplified upper flow pattern is expected
to persist across North America with a ridge out over the western US
and a trough over the eastern US.  The Ohio Valley will remain under
the influence of the upper trough early in the period.  Some weak
vorticity within the flow is expected to transverse through the base
of the trough in the early part of the extended.  As the weekend
draws to a close, the upper trough is expected to lift out as the
western Atlantic ridge will attempt to retrograde eastward into the
eastern US.  As this occurs, the upper ridge over the western US
looks to close off.  The Ohio Valley will reside in a cull between
these two ridges early next week.  However, these two ridge will
link up by midweek resulting in more of zonal pattern developing
across the eastern US.  By the end of the period, the deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in agreement with another strong vorticity
lobe dropping into the northern US which will eventually render the
flow back to a trough west/ridge east pattern with the strong
possibility of an upper level low getting cut off across the Ohio
Valley.

=============================
Model Preference & Confidence
=============================

As for model preference, a 33/33/33 blend of the previous forecast
and the 00Z OP GFS and 00Z OP Euro were used for the early part of
the extended period (weekend period).  For early to middle of next
week, generally used a 50/50 blend of the OP GFS and Euro along with
their respective ensembles.  A slightly higher weight was given to
the ensemble solutions.  Forecast confidence through the period is
slightly above average with respect to temperatures and
precipitation.  We heavily leaned on the SuperBlend guidance for
temperatures through the upcoming period.

=============================
Sensible Weather Impacts
=============================

At the beginning of the long term period, we expect mainly partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as we will be under the influence of the
upper trough.  With this feature in the region, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Saturday
night.  A marked decrease in activity is expected by Sunday as the
upper trough lifts out.  Overall coverage of convection is expected
to be scattered at best and will probably not put a big dent in any
of our rainfall deficits.  Drier and warmer conditions are expected
as we move into early next week.  Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near seasonal normals from Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs on Saturday will generally run from the upper 70s in
the east to the lower-middle 80s in the west.  Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected on Sunday with mainly 80s.  More
seasonable middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday and Tuesday
with upper 80s to near 90 expected by Wednesday.  Overnight lows
will generally be in the middle to upper 60s.

A turn to more unsettled weather looks likely toward the end of the
forecast period and into next weekend as the aforementioned upper
level cut off low develops across the region. This would likely
result in cooler temperatures returning to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in control, allowing for just some scattered
cumulus to develop once again this afternoon.  These cumulus will
largely dissipate tonight, however some mid and upper level
cloudiness may push into mainly KLEX and KBWG overnight into
Friday.  Winds through the period will remain rather light and
variable.  Depending on the amount of incoming cloud cover
overnight, some light fog may briefly develop once again at KLEX,
but given dewpoints mixing out into the middle 50s this afternoon,
will leave out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

A broad immobile longwave 500mb trough continues over the Great
Lakes, seemingly locked in place be bracketing ridges over the
inland Pacific Northwest and the eastern Atlantic. This trough will
not move much during the next several days.

Currently, a shortwave trough and corresponding inverted surface
front is moving through northern Texas. This feature will continue
to dig southeast around the longwave trough over the Lakes. Rain and
cloud cover will miss to our south, with widespread showers expected
over Arkansas and southern Missouri late this afternoon, spreading
east across the northern Gulf States by Friday afternoon.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will remain in a benign
weather pattern for the next several days. A light pressure gradient
will lead to nearly calm winds at night and light winds each
afternoon. Expect westerly winds this afternoon at around 5 mph,
becoming light northeasterly by Friday afternoon. High cloudiness
associated with the Texas shortwave will erode by morning, with just
some afternoon fair weather cumulus developing both today and Friday
afternoons. Will continue just a slight chance of some isolated
thunder Friday afternoon.

Under the influence of a modifying trough, temperatures will rise a
couple of degrees today and Friday, but still remaining a few
degrees below normal. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s, with
lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

=============================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
=============================

In the long term, a rather amplified upper flow pattern is expected
to persist across North America with a ridge out over the western US
and a trough over the eastern US.  The Ohio Valley will remain under
the influence of the upper trough early in the period.  Some weak
vorticity within the flow is expected to transverse through the base
of the trough in the early part of the extended.  As the weekend
draws to a close, the upper trough is expected to lift out as the
western Atlantic ridge will attempt to retrograde eastward into the
eastern US.  As this occurs, the upper ridge over the western US
looks to close off.  The Ohio Valley will reside in a cull between
these two ridges early next week.  However, these two ridge will
link up by midweek resulting in more of zonal pattern developing
across the eastern US.  By the end of the period, the deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in agreement with another strong vorticity
lobe dropping into the northern US which will eventually render the
flow back to a trough west/ridge east pattern with the strong
possibility of an upper level low getting cut off across the Ohio
Valley.

=============================
Model Preference & Confidence
=============================

As for model preference, a 33/33/33 blend of the previous forecast
and the 00Z OP GFS and 00Z OP Euro were used for the early part of
the extended period (weekend period).  For early to middle of next
week, generally used a 50/50 blend of the OP GFS and Euro along with
their respective ensembles.  A slightly higher weight was given to
the ensemble solutions.  Forecast confidence through the period is
slightly above average with respect to temperatures and
precipitation.  We heavily leaned on the SuperBlend guidance for
temperatures through the upcoming period.

=============================
Sensible Weather Impacts
=============================

At the beginning of the long term period, we expect mainly partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as we will be under the influence of the
upper trough.  With this feature in the region, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Saturday
night.  A marked decrease in activity is expected by Sunday as the
upper trough lifts out.  Overall coverage of convection is expected
to be scattered at best and will probably not put a big dent in any
of our rainfall deficits.  Drier and warmer conditions are expected
as we move into early next week.  Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near seasonal normals from Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs on Saturday will generally run from the upper 70s in
the east to the lower-middle 80s in the west.  Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected on Sunday with mainly 80s.  More
seasonable middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday and Tuesday
with upper 80s to near 90 expected by Wednesday.  Overnight lows
will generally be in the middle to upper 60s.

A turn to more unsettled weather looks likely toward the end of the
forecast period and into next weekend as the aforementioned upper
level cut off low develops across the region. This would likely
result in cooler temperatures returning to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.  High
pressure will remain in control, allowing for just some scattered
cumulus to develop once again this afternoon.  These cumulus will
largely dissipate tonight, however some mid and upper level
cloudiness may push into mainly KLEX and KBWG overnight into
Friday.  Winds through the period will remain rather light and
variable.  Depending on the amount of incoming cloud cover
overnight, some light fog may briefly develop once again at KLEX,
but given dewpoints mixing out into the middle 50s this afternoon,
will leave out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 311405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 311405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER EAST KENTUCKY. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS JUST ABOUT BURNED OFF AND SKIES ARE CLEAR
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING STRATUS IN THE FAR SOUTH BENEATH SOME
MID LEVEL ONES. WITH THE SUNSHINE THIS MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
PROMPTLY REBOUND FROM THE LOWS...MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S...
INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP A
BIT...TOO...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THERE...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT A PLEASANT ENOUGH SUMMER DAY...WARMER THAN IT HAS
BEEN...THAT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE DOWN ALONG
THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS WHERE SOME SHOWERS MAY SNEAK IN BY
EARLY EVENING FROM A SFC WAVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE THE SKY AND WX GRIDS THIS MORNING AND
ALSO TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF FRESHENED ZONES AND A FOG LESS HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KPAH 311140
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Updated the pubic grids an hour ago to add patchy dense fog to
southern Illinois and adjacent portions of southeast Missouri.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak troughing in the upper-levels of the troposphere, and a very
weak surface pressure pattern make for a low-confidence cloud and
precipitation forecast. If any showers or storms can develop today,
they will not likely be widespread enough to warrant mentioning
at KPAH and KCGI. Some of the latest guidance even develops some
convection near these sites overnight tonight. Will let later
issuances consider that possibility. Patchy dense fog at KPAH and
KCGI should dissipate very quickly this morning. If skies are
mostly clear tonight, fog is a good bet to develop at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 311140
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Updated the pubic grids an hour ago to add patchy dense fog to
southern Illinois and adjacent portions of southeast Missouri.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak troughing in the upper-levels of the troposphere, and a very
weak surface pressure pattern make for a low-confidence cloud and
precipitation forecast. If any showers or storms can develop today,
they will not likely be widespread enough to warrant mentioning
at KPAH and KCGI. Some of the latest guidance even develops some
convection near these sites overnight tonight. Will let later
issuances consider that possibility. Patchy dense fog at KPAH and
KCGI should dissipate very quickly this morning. If skies are
mostly clear tonight, fog is a good bet to develop at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 311140
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Updated the pubic grids an hour ago to add patchy dense fog to
southern Illinois and adjacent portions of southeast Missouri.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak troughing in the upper-levels of the troposphere, and a very
weak surface pressure pattern make for a low-confidence cloud and
precipitation forecast. If any showers or storms can develop today,
they will not likely be widespread enough to warrant mentioning
at KPAH and KCGI. Some of the latest guidance even develops some
convection near these sites overnight tonight. Will let later
issuances consider that possibility. Patchy dense fog at KPAH and
KCGI should dissipate very quickly this morning. If skies are
mostly clear tonight, fog is a good bet to develop at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 311140
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Updated the pubic grids an hour ago to add patchy dense fog to
southern Illinois and adjacent portions of southeast Missouri.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Weak troughing in the upper-levels of the troposphere, and a very
weak surface pressure pattern make for a low-confidence cloud and
precipitation forecast. If any showers or storms can develop today,
they will not likely be widespread enough to warrant mentioning
at KPAH and KCGI. Some of the latest guidance even develops some
convection near these sites overnight tonight. Will let later
issuances consider that possibility. Patchy dense fog at KPAH and
KCGI should dissipate very quickly this morning. If skies are
mostly clear tonight, fog is a good bet to develop at all sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 311109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 311109
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENERGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

ONCE FOG BURNS OFF AT KSME...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THE TAF SITES. EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF
POTENTIAL MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN
FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR A TIME
CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME DUE TO LIGHT BUT PREDOMINATE SW FLOW...AS WAS
THE CASE THIS MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. VFR CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AT
KSME AND KLOZ AHEAD OF RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL POISED TO IMPACT FAR SE
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
ISOLATED AND WILL POTENTIALLY NEAR THE TAF SITES SO LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THAT UNCERTAINTY WARRANTED IT NOT BEING INCLUDED IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

A broad immobile longwave 500mb trough continues over the Great
Lakes, seemingly locked in place be bracketing ridges over the
inland Pacific Northwest and the eastern Atlantic. This trough will
not move much during the next several days.

Currently, a shortwave trough and corresponding inverted surface
front is moving through northern Texas. This feature will continue
to dig southeast around the longwave trough over the Lakes. Rain and
cloud cover will miss to our south, with widespread showers expected
over Arkansas and southern Missouri late this afternoon, spreading
east across the northern Gulf States by Friday afternoon.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will remain in a benign
weather pattern for the next several days. A light pressure gradient
will lead to nearly calm winds at night and light winds each
afternoon. Expect westerly winds this afternoon at around 5 mph,
becoming light northeasterly by Friday afternoon. High cloudiness
associated with the Texas shortwave will erode by morning, with just
some afternoon fair weather cumulus developing both today and Friday
afternoons. Will continue just a slight chance of some isolated
thunder Friday afternoon.

Under the influence of a modifying trough, temperatures will rise a
couple of degrees today and Friday, but still remaining a few
degrees below normal. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s, with
lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

=============================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
=============================

In the long term, a rather amplified upper flow pattern is expected
to persist across North America with a ridge out over the western US
and a trough over the eastern US.  The Ohio Valley will remain under
the influence of the upper trough early in the period.  Some weak
vorticity within the flow is expected to transverse through the base
of the trough in the early part of the extended.  As the weekend
draws to a close, the upper trough is expected to lift out as the
western Atlantic ridge will attempt to retrograde eastward into the
eastern US.  As this occurs, the upper ridge over the western US
looks to close off.  The Ohio Valley will reside in a cull between
these two ridges early next week.  However, these two ridge will
link up by midweek resulting in more of zonal pattern developing
across the eastern US.  By the end of the period, the deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in agreement with another strong vorticity
lobe dropping into the northern US which will eventually render the
flow back to a trough west/ridge east pattern with the strong
possibility of an upper level low getting cut off across the Ohio
Valley.

=============================
Model Preference & Confidence
=============================

As for model preference, a 33/33/33 blend of the previous forecast
and the 00Z OP GFS and 00Z OP Euro were used for the early part of
the extended period (weekend period).  For early to middle of next
week, generally used a 50/50 blend of the OP GFS and Euro along with
their respective ensembles.  A slightly higher weight was given to
the ensemble solutions.  Forecast confidence through the period is
slightly above average with respect to temperatures and
precipitation.  We heavily leaned on the SuperBlend guidance for
temperatures through the upcoming period.

=============================
Sensible Weather Impacts
=============================

At the beginning of the long term period, we expect mainly partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as we will be under the influence of the
upper trough.  With this feature in the region, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Saturday
night.  A marked decrease in activity is expected by Sunday as the
upper trough lifts out.  Overall coverage of convection is expected
to be scattered at best and will probably not put a big dent in any
of our rainfall deficits.  Drier and warmer conditions are expected
as we move into early next week.  Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near seasonal normals from Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs on Saturday will generally run from the upper 70s in
the east to the lower-middle 80s in the west.  Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected on Sunday with mainly 80s.  More
seasonable middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday and Tuesday
with upper 80s to near 90 expected by Wednesday.  Overnight lows
will generally be in the middle to upper 60s.

A turn to more unsettled weather looks likely toward the end of the
forecast period and into next weekend as the aforementioned upper
level cut off low develops across the region. This would likely
result in cooler temperatures returning to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Clear skies and calm
winds this morning will give way to some afternoon fair weather
cumulus. Winds will increase from the west at 5 mph or less this afternoon.
Skies will clear this evening and winds will become calm once again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 311040
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

A broad immobile longwave 500mb trough continues over the Great
Lakes, seemingly locked in place be bracketing ridges over the
inland Pacific Northwest and the eastern Atlantic. This trough will
not move much during the next several days.

Currently, a shortwave trough and corresponding inverted surface
front is moving through northern Texas. This feature will continue
to dig southeast around the longwave trough over the Lakes. Rain and
cloud cover will miss to our south, with widespread showers expected
over Arkansas and southern Missouri late this afternoon, spreading
east across the northern Gulf States by Friday afternoon.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will remain in a benign
weather pattern for the next several days. A light pressure gradient
will lead to nearly calm winds at night and light winds each
afternoon. Expect westerly winds this afternoon at around 5 mph,
becoming light northeasterly by Friday afternoon. High cloudiness
associated with the Texas shortwave will erode by morning, with just
some afternoon fair weather cumulus developing both today and Friday
afternoons. Will continue just a slight chance of some isolated
thunder Friday afternoon.

Under the influence of a modifying trough, temperatures will rise a
couple of degrees today and Friday, but still remaining a few
degrees below normal. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s, with
lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

=============================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
=============================

In the long term, a rather amplified upper flow pattern is expected
to persist across North America with a ridge out over the western US
and a trough over the eastern US.  The Ohio Valley will remain under
the influence of the upper trough early in the period.  Some weak
vorticity within the flow is expected to transverse through the base
of the trough in the early part of the extended.  As the weekend
draws to a close, the upper trough is expected to lift out as the
western Atlantic ridge will attempt to retrograde eastward into the
eastern US.  As this occurs, the upper ridge over the western US
looks to close off.  The Ohio Valley will reside in a cull between
these two ridges early next week.  However, these two ridge will
link up by midweek resulting in more of zonal pattern developing
across the eastern US.  By the end of the period, the deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in agreement with another strong vorticity
lobe dropping into the northern US which will eventually render the
flow back to a trough west/ridge east pattern with the strong
possibility of an upper level low getting cut off across the Ohio
Valley.

=============================
Model Preference & Confidence
=============================

As for model preference, a 33/33/33 blend of the previous forecast
and the 00Z OP GFS and 00Z OP Euro were used for the early part of
the extended period (weekend period).  For early to middle of next
week, generally used a 50/50 blend of the OP GFS and Euro along with
their respective ensembles.  A slightly higher weight was given to
the ensemble solutions.  Forecast confidence through the period is
slightly above average with respect to temperatures and
precipitation.  We heavily leaned on the SuperBlend guidance for
temperatures through the upcoming period.

=============================
Sensible Weather Impacts
=============================

At the beginning of the long term period, we expect mainly partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as we will be under the influence of the
upper trough.  With this feature in the region, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Saturday
night.  A marked decrease in activity is expected by Sunday as the
upper trough lifts out.  Overall coverage of convection is expected
to be scattered at best and will probably not put a big dent in any
of our rainfall deficits.  Drier and warmer conditions are expected
as we move into early next week.  Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near seasonal normals from Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs on Saturday will generally run from the upper 70s in
the east to the lower-middle 80s in the west.  Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected on Sunday with mainly 80s.  More
seasonable middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday and Tuesday
with upper 80s to near 90 expected by Wednesday.  Overnight lows
will generally be in the middle to upper 60s.

A turn to more unsettled weather looks likely toward the end of the
forecast period and into next weekend as the aforementioned upper
level cut off low develops across the region. This would likely
result in cooler temperatures returning to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Clear skies and calm
winds this morning will give way to some afternoon fair weather
cumulus. Winds will increase from the west at 5 mph or less this afternoon.
Skies will clear this evening and winds will become calm once again.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 310834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

CENTER OF THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ROTATE AROUND SOUTHERN
JAMES BAY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS IT REMAINS BLOCKED BETWEEN TWO
STRONG RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SW CONUS...AND ONE OFF THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC COAST. UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS WHERE THE STRONG PULL OF
NORTHERLY AIR BROUGHT WITH IT UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S...BY TODAY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WRLY...AND
THEN EVENTUALLY MORE SWRLY. THIS WILL BEGIN PULLING IN WARMER TEMPS
FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH.

IN ADDITION...THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NO MID LEVEL WAVES MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL HEATING...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PULLING
BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S...JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THEN
FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA...A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STORY IS EXPECTED. A
SMALL WAVE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL PASS NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY...BRINGING A FOCUSED
CENTER OF PRECIP TO GA AND SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS PRECIP MAY
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INTO OUR REGION UNDER THE SW FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
THAT A FEW ISOLATED POPS ALONG THE TN/VA BORDER WERE WARRANTED. IT
WILL ALSO CREATE AN INCREASE IN CIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...PREVENTING TEMPS FROM RISING QUITE AS
HIGH AS THOSE TO THE NORTH. UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S WILL BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...STUCK WITH THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS
ONLY.

THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LEE SIDE OF THE
TROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SHORT RANGE MODELS
ARE ALL STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE EXTENT OF MOISTURE
FROM THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...EXPANDING
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KY BY AFTERNOON TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY...AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE ENEREGY...INCLUDED
MENTION OF THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN CWA NW/WARD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND ENGULFING MUCH OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW. THE
CLOUD COVER IN ADDITION TO RAIN CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY WORK TO
REGULATE THE HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW. THE NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE
WARMEST...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUCCUMB TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN LAST. HOWEVER...THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD SEE WELL
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ONCE MORE...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT...CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA FOR A GOOD RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT UNDER VERY LIGHT SERLY WINDS. THESE LIGHT WINDS AND AN
EXPECTED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WITH THE SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE...COULD
BRING THE RETURN OF FOG TO THE VALLEY LOCATIONS ONCE MORE...THOUGH
INCOMING CLOUDS WILL PREVENT IT FROM BECOMING DENSE AND WIDESPREAD.
CONTINUED WITH PATCHY WORDING FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 310818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 310818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 310818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 310818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Troughing aloft will sharpen across the area through Saturday,
At the surface, the pattern will remain very flat, with very light
winds through the period. The bottom line is that there will be
little warm or moist advection through the period.

The dry airmass will slowly moderate due to transpiration/evaporation,
which may lead to a slight warming trend in low temperatures
tonight and Friday night. High temperatures will be modulated by
cloud cover, and should be capped in the middle 80s where there is
plentiful sunshine. Generally stayed on the cool side of guidance
for highs through the period. Consensus guidance for lows may be a
bit cool, depending on how much airmass modification actually
occurs.

00Z NAM soundings indicate a layer of instability beneath a mid-
level inversion that could possibly produce a few showers toward
midday today, mainly over the southwest half of the area. Not sure
if the mid-level inversion will cap convection, it`s conceivable
that a few thunderstorms could develop as well. Given the weak
flow through the troposphere, any storms should be short-lived and
weak.

As the troughing begins to sharpen Friday, there will be a little
better chance of deep convection developing, but mainly over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. As the main mid/upper-
level trough pivots eastward through the region, the best chance
for convection will be over the eastern half of the area Saturday.
There is even some model signal for development in the east late
Friday night. Given the weak lift and generally poor moisture to
work with, will keep PoPs at or below 30% through the short term
period. Severe weather seems very unlikely given the weak
instability and generally weak flow through the column.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Thursday Night)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

The beginning of the extended forecast period places the WFO PAH
forecast area under increasing influence of the Central/Southern
Plains ridge axis, effectively stopping sufficient lift for
convective activity.

The passage of the middle/upper level trough through the area does
leave a closed circulation over the Southeast U.S., but its
influence is too far displaced to impact the local area, with the
exception of some potential cloudiness over Kentucky.

The medium range models, in various degrees, flatten the upper ridge
early next week, placing the WFO PAH near the base of the westerlies
and the ridge.  A series of minor impulses work toward the area, but
remain sufficiently out of phase to provide focused lift. By next
Wednesday evening, a progressive shortwave moves toward the WFO PAH
forecast are in broad southerly flow.. Could see an adjustment in
the PoPs for next Thursday and Friday time period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...Smith







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

A broad immobile longwave 500mb trough continues over the Great
Lakes, seemingly locked in place be bracketing ridges over the
inland Pacific Northwest and the eastern Atlantic. This trough will
not move much during the next several days.

Currently, a shortwave trough and corresponding inverted surface
front is moving through northern Texas. This feature will continue
to dig southeast around the longwave trough over the Lakes. Rain and
cloud cover will miss to our south, with widespread showers expected
over Arkansas and southern Missouri late this afternoon, spreading
east across the northern Gulf States by Friday afternoon.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will remain in a benign
weather pattern for the next several days. A light pressure gradient
will lead to nearly calm winds at night and light winds each
afternoon. Expect westerly winds this afternoon at around 5 mph,
becoming light northeasterly by Friday afternoon. High cloudiness
associated with the Texas shortwave will erode by morning, with just
some afternoon fair weather cumulus developing both today and Friday
afternoons. Will continue just a slight chance of some isolated
thunder Friday afternoon.

Under the influence of a modifying trough, temperatures will rise a
couple of degrees today and Friday, but still remaining a few
degrees below normal. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s, with
lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

=============================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
=============================

In the long term, a rather amplified upper flow pattern is expected
to persist across North America with a ridge out over the western US
and a trough over the eastern US.  The Ohio Valley will remain under
the influence of the upper trough early in the period.  Some weak
vorticity within the flow is expected to transverse through the base
of the trough in the early part of the extended.  As the weekend
draws to a close, the upper trough is expected to lift out as the
western Atlantic ridge will attempt to retrograde eastward into the
eastern US.  As this occurs, the upper ridge over the western US
looks to close off.  The Ohio Valley will reside in a cull between
these two ridges early next week.  However, these two ridge will
link up by midweek resulting in more of zonal pattern developing
across the eastern US.  By the end of the period, the deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in agreement with another strong vorticity
lobe dropping into the northern US which will eventually render the
flow back to a trough west/ridge east pattern with the strong
possibility of an upper level low getting cut off across the Ohio
Valley.

=============================
Model Preference & Confidence
=============================

As for model preference, a 33/33/33 blend of the previous forecast
and the 00Z OP GFS and 00Z OP Euro were used for the early part of
the extended period (weekend period).  For early to middle of next
week, generally used a 50/50 blend of the OP GFS and Euro along with
their respective ensembles.  A slightly higher weight was given to
the ensemble solutions.  Forecast confidence through the period is
slightly above average with respect to temperatures and
precipitation.  We heavily leaned on the SuperBlend guidance for
temperatures through the upcoming period.

=============================
Sensible Weather Impacts
=============================

At the beginning of the long term period, we expect mainly partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as we will be under the influence of the
upper trough.  With this feature in the region, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Saturday
night.  A marked decrease in activity is expected by Sunday as the
upper trough lifts out.  Overall coverage of convection is expected
to be scattered at best and will probably not put a big dent in any
of our rainfall deficits.  Drier and warmer conditions are expected
as we move into early next week.  Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near seasonal normals from Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs on Saturday will generally run from the upper 70s in
the east to the lower-middle 80s in the west.  Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected on Sunday with mainly 80s.  More
seasonable middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday and Tuesday
with upper 80s to near 90 expected by Wednesday.  Overnight lows
will generally be in the middle to upper 60s.

A turn to more unsettled weather looks likely toward the end of the
forecast period and into next weekend as the aforementioned upper
level cut off low develops across the region. This would likely
result in cooler temperatures returning to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Despite weak troughing aloft, a relatively dry atmosphere and a lack
of any disturbances will lead to clear to partly cloudy skies
through the TAF period.

Pressure gradients will stay quite light through Thursday. Nearly
calm winds through mid morning will become westerly at or below 5kt
by this afternoon.

Broken high cirrus over BWG will become partly cloudy by later this
morning. Scattered afternoon fair-weather cumulus at or above 5k
feet will develop this afternoon with VFR conditions continuing
through early Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

A broad immobile longwave 500mb trough continues over the Great
Lakes, seemingly locked in place be bracketing ridges over the
inland Pacific Northwest and the eastern Atlantic. This trough will
not move much during the next several days.

Currently, a shortwave trough and corresponding inverted surface
front is moving through northern Texas. This feature will continue
to dig southeast around the longwave trough over the Lakes. Rain and
cloud cover will miss to our south, with widespread showers expected
over Arkansas and southern Missouri late this afternoon, spreading
east across the northern Gulf States by Friday afternoon.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will remain in a benign
weather pattern for the next several days. A light pressure gradient
will lead to nearly calm winds at night and light winds each
afternoon. Expect westerly winds this afternoon at around 5 mph,
becoming light northeasterly by Friday afternoon. High cloudiness
associated with the Texas shortwave will erode by morning, with just
some afternoon fair weather cumulus developing both today and Friday
afternoons. Will continue just a slight chance of some isolated
thunder Friday afternoon.

Under the influence of a modifying trough, temperatures will rise a
couple of degrees today and Friday, but still remaining a few
degrees below normal. Highs will generally reach the mid 80s, with
lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 318 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

=============================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
=============================

In the long term, a rather amplified upper flow pattern is expected
to persist across North America with a ridge out over the western US
and a trough over the eastern US.  The Ohio Valley will remain under
the influence of the upper trough early in the period.  Some weak
vorticity within the flow is expected to transverse through the base
of the trough in the early part of the extended.  As the weekend
draws to a close, the upper trough is expected to lift out as the
western Atlantic ridge will attempt to retrograde eastward into the
eastern US.  As this occurs, the upper ridge over the western US
looks to close off.  The Ohio Valley will reside in a cull between
these two ridges early next week.  However, these two ridge will
link up by midweek resulting in more of zonal pattern developing
across the eastern US.  By the end of the period, the deterministic
and ensemble guidance are in agreement with another strong vorticity
lobe dropping into the northern US which will eventually render the
flow back to a trough west/ridge east pattern with the strong
possibility of an upper level low getting cut off across the Ohio
Valley.

=============================
Model Preference & Confidence
=============================

As for model preference, a 33/33/33 blend of the previous forecast
and the 00Z OP GFS and 00Z OP Euro were used for the early part of
the extended period (weekend period).  For early to middle of next
week, generally used a 50/50 blend of the OP GFS and Euro along with
their respective ensembles.  A slightly higher weight was given to
the ensemble solutions.  Forecast confidence through the period is
slightly above average with respect to temperatures and
precipitation.  We heavily leaned on the SuperBlend guidance for
temperatures through the upcoming period.

=============================
Sensible Weather Impacts
=============================

At the beginning of the long term period, we expect mainly partly to
mostly cloudy conditions as we will be under the influence of the
upper trough.  With this feature in the region, scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible Friday night through Saturday
night.  A marked decrease in activity is expected by Sunday as the
upper trough lifts out.  Overall coverage of convection is expected
to be scattered at best and will probably not put a big dent in any
of our rainfall deficits.  Drier and warmer conditions are expected
as we move into early next week.  Temperatures are expected to
rebound to near seasonal normals from Monday through Wednesday.
Daytime highs on Saturday will generally run from the upper 70s in
the east to the lower-middle 80s in the west.  Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected on Sunday with mainly 80s.  More
seasonable middle to upper 80s are expected on Monday and Tuesday
with upper 80s to near 90 expected by Wednesday.  Overnight lows
will generally be in the middle to upper 60s.

A turn to more unsettled weather looks likely toward the end of the
forecast period and into next weekend as the aforementioned upper
level cut off low develops across the region. This would likely
result in cooler temperatures returning to the area late next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Despite weak troughing aloft, a relatively dry atmosphere and a lack
of any disturbances will lead to clear to partly cloudy skies
through the TAF period.

Pressure gradients will stay quite light through Thursday. Nearly
calm winds through mid morning will become westerly at or below 5kt
by this afternoon.

Broken high cirrus over BWG will become partly cloudy by later this
morning. Scattered afternoon fair-weather cumulus at or above 5k
feet will develop this afternoon with VFR conditions continuing
through early Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND TROUGH
STAYING IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MODELS START OUT
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
AS SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND STARTS DIGGING AN
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES TOWARD
THE AREA IT WILL ERODE THE MID LEVEL CAPPING THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT.
WITH THE CAP GONE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
TO BE ABLE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY
EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE MOVED TO EAST OF THE AREA
AND WILL THROTTLE THE CONVECTION. AS THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY THE HEIGHTS OF THE REMAINING LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE
RISING AND A UPPER LOW WILL BE TRYING BREAK OFF AND DIG TO THE
SOUTH. BY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW A
SHORT WAVE TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL US AND START TO PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL OHIO...STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
KEEP THINGS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN SUMMER TEMPERATURES RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH
THE MODEL BLEND WITH SOME BIAS CORRECTIONS APPLIED.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310611
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310611
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
211 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF SOME RAIN SHOWER POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS AND CIG HEIGHT SHOULD CHANGE VERY
LITTLE...SO NO EXTRA LINE WAS NEEDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 310504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Despite weak troughing aloft, a relatively dry atmosphere and a lack
of any disturbances will lead to clear to partly cloudy skies
through the TAF period.

Pressure gradients will stay quite light through Thursday. Nearly
calm winds through mid morning will become westerly at or below 5kt
by this afternoon.

Broken high cirrus over BWG will become partly cloudy by later this
morning. Scattered afternoon fair-weather cumulus at or above 5k
feet will develop this afternoon with VFR conditions continuing
through early Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

Despite weak troughing aloft, a relatively dry atmosphere and a lack
of any disturbances will lead to clear to partly cloudy skies
through the TAF period.

Pressure gradients will stay quite light through Thursday. Nearly
calm winds through mid morning will become westerly at or below 5kt
by this afternoon.

Broken high cirrus over BWG will become partly cloudy by later this
morning. Scattered afternoon fair-weather cumulus at or above 5k
feet will develop this afternoon with VFR conditions continuing
through early Friday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310245
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

CLOUDS IN THE EAST ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE...SFC COLD FRONT IS
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS UP JUST A BIT IN OUR EASTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
BUT ONCE SKIES BEGIN TO PARTIALLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT TEMPS SHOULD
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AND BEGIN THEIR DIURNAL DROP IN ERNST. HOWEVER...
DID BUMP TEMPS UP JUST A DEGREE OR TWO IN THESE AREAS TO REFLECT THE
SHORTER PERIOD OF OVERNIGHT COOLING. ALSO PICKING UP A COUPLE OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ON RADAR WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE
FOR A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING. BUT HAVE YET TO SEE ANY
THUNDER IN OUR CWA. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
FROM THE FORECAST PACKAGE. OTHERWISE...UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST
HOURLY TRENDS AND FRESHENED UP THE HWO ALONG WITH A MENTION OF SOME
LOCALLY DENSE FOG...MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS LEADING UP
TO SUNRISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






000
FXUS63 KJKL 310105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY






000
FXUS63 KPAH 302342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in decent agreement for this
forecast package, along with most deterministic guidance.

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the axis of the
prominent mid level shrtwv will be moving to the east of the PAH
forecast area. There may be enough unstable moist air in place
between 850 and 700 mb, and lift for a few showers and tstms Sat
afternoon in the Pennyrile region of KY and adjacent parts of swrn
IN. After that, high pressure at the sfc is forecast to sink into
our region, and the mid/upper pattern should become very slack on
the edge of a persistent ridge over the swrn CONUS, and capped for
much of the time, meaning rain-free conditions and a slow warming
trend through next week, as the sun`s energy works on the reasonably
dry air mass.

By Day 7, a cold front will be on the approach but well to our north
as nrn stream shrtwv energy begins to change the mid/upper pattern.
For now, the forecast remains dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 302342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in decent agreement for this
forecast package, along with most deterministic guidance.

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the axis of the
prominent mid level shrtwv will be moving to the east of the PAH
forecast area. There may be enough unstable moist air in place
between 850 and 700 mb, and lift for a few showers and tstms Sat
afternoon in the Pennyrile region of KY and adjacent parts of swrn
IN. After that, high pressure at the sfc is forecast to sink into
our region, and the mid/upper pattern should become very slack on
the edge of a persistent ridge over the swrn CONUS, and capped for
much of the time, meaning rain-free conditions and a slow warming
trend through next week, as the sun`s energy works on the reasonably
dry air mass.

By Day 7, a cold front will be on the approach but well to our north
as nrn stream shrtwv energy begins to change the mid/upper pattern.
For now, the forecast remains dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. An upper level
disturbance will weaken as it shifts southeast from the Plains into
the Lower Mississippi Valley. This should keep any rain just south
of the forecast terminals, though an increase in VFR cloud cover
will be noted, especially at KCGI and KPAH. Winds will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302324
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 722 PM EDT WED Jul 30 2014

Was able to remove the small sliver of slight chance Pops acros our
NW CWA as current radar trends show weakening/diminishing showers.
Was also watching a few blips on radar across west central KY that
formed on a differntial heating boundary from sky cover across our
SW. However, these very isolated showers will no longer be a threat
after the loss of daytime heating, so will not mention. Forecast is
on track tonight with the only other update being current obs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The TAF sites are expected to remain under the influence of an
expansive upper trough through this forecast cycle, however high
pressure at the surface and a relative lack of moisture should be
enough to keep things VFR. The one exception looks to be a brief
period of MVFR possible at LEX toward dawn. Forecast model guidance
actually promotes fog at all TAF sites, however crossover T`s appear
too low at SDF/BWG, and are only marginally supportive at LEX. Other
than the brief MVFR at LEX, expect only a few clouds over night with
light and variable or calm winds. A light gradient out of the SW
will pick up on Thursday, with scattered cu around 5 k feet and some
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302324
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 722 PM EDT WED Jul 30 2014

Was able to remove the small sliver of slight chance Pops acros our
NW CWA as current radar trends show weakening/diminishing showers.
Was also watching a few blips on radar across west central KY that
formed on a differntial heating boundary from sky cover across our
SW. However, these very isolated showers will no longer be a threat
after the loss of daytime heating, so will not mention. Forecast is
on track tonight with the only other update being current obs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The TAF sites are expected to remain under the influence of an
expansive upper trough through this forecast cycle, however high
pressure at the surface and a relative lack of moisture should be
enough to keep things VFR. The one exception looks to be a brief
period of MVFR possible at LEX toward dawn. Forecast model guidance
actually promotes fog at all TAF sites, however crossover T`s appear
too low at SDF/BWG, and are only marginally supportive at LEX. Other
than the brief MVFR at LEX, expect only a few clouds over night with
light and variable or calm winds. A light gradient out of the SW
will pick up on Thursday, with scattered cu around 5 k feet and some
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......JBS
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 302309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The TAF sites are expected to remain under the influence of an
expansive upper trough through this forecast cycle, however high
pressure at the surface and a relative lack of moisture should be
enough to keep things VFR. The one exception looks to be a brief
period of MVFR possible at LEX toward dawn. Forecast model guidance
actually promotes fog at all TAF sites, however crossover T`s appear
too low at SDF/BWG, and are only marginally supportive at LEX. Other
than the brief MVFR at LEX, expect only a few clouds over night with
light and variable or calm winds. A light gradient out of the SW
will pick up on Thursday, with scattered cu around 5 k feet and some
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The TAF sites are expected to remain under the influence of an
expansive upper trough through this forecast cycle, however high
pressure at the surface and a relative lack of moisture should be
enough to keep things VFR. The one exception looks to be a brief
period of MVFR possible at LEX toward dawn. Forecast model guidance
actually promotes fog at all TAF sites, however crossover T`s appear
too low at SDF/BWG, and are only marginally supportive at LEX. Other
than the brief MVFR at LEX, expect only a few clouds over night with
light and variable or calm winds. A light gradient out of the SW
will pick up on Thursday, with scattered cu around 5 k feet and some
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301950 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301950 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301950 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301950 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS
EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH THROUGH OHIO
AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES AND
STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LARGER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS TO
15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL PASS
NORTHWEST OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. OVER FAR EAST
KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER
NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period.  Scattered cu will continue to develop this afternoon.  Some
of these could gain some vertical depth near KLEX, thus cannot rule
out a stray shower there, but will continue to leave the forecast
dry as think most activity will remain off to the north.  Otherwise,
cigs/vsbys will remain VFR at all sites through this evening.

Skies will go partly cloudy tonight as winds go mostly calm.
Despite there not being any light fog the past couple of nights,
think there may be a slightly better chance tonight at KLEX as
low-level moisture is a bit more established.  Therefore, will
introduce a brief period of MVFR vsbys toward dawn.  Otherwise, all
sites should remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features an unusually amplified
pattern for late July, with a large trough across the Great Lakes
region and an upstream ridge across the western CONUS.  This pattern
will persist through the short term period, keeping seasonably cool
conditions in place.

A PV anomaly was diving through the mean upper trough this afternoon
across IN and northern Ohio.  The ascent associated with this
feature has helped to trigger some showers and thunderstorms across
portions of central Indiana and southern Ohio.  As the system
continues to dive southeast, it may just be enough to spark an
isolated shower or rumble of thunder across the Northern Bluegrass.
However, given only marginal low-level moisture and the main upper
cold core off staying off to the north, think most places will
remain dry.

Clouds will diminish with sunset this evening, resulting in another
clear and cool night.  Went close to persistence for low
temperatures tonight, which once again puts them in the mid to upper
50s, with the heat-island cities staying in the lower 60s.

On Thursday and especially into Thursday night, we will likely see a
bit more upper-level cloud cover push into southern and central KY.
This cloudiness will be in association with a weak system meandering
across the Southeast.  Given the dry airmass remaining in place near
the surface, think any precip that may fall in the warm-air
advection regime Thursday night will likely not reach the ground,
thus will continue with a dry forecast.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

August weather begins looking just like much of July with below
normal temperatures and little significant accumulation of
precipitation.

Despite some decay of the persistent upper level western U.S. ridge
and eastern U.S. trough, little in the way of active weather will
occur during the extended period.  That doesn`t mean there will be
no precipitation, but don`t look for widespread moisture to fill the
accumulated precip deficit that`s starting to show up across much of
the area.

Shower/thunder chances will first return by midday Friday, then
linger through Saturday night. The highest POPs during this time -
are Saturday night as the long wave trough axis starts to press
eastward. All models are in decent agreement on this, but with the
standard variations on timing and location, will only go with a
broadbrush of 30-40 POPs for now. Given recent trends, it would not
be surprising to see this go through the forecast area without a
drop in some locations, while a few lucky sites get enough to keep
things green.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies will cover the forecast throughout the
period, and while dewpoints will rise into the lower to mid 60s,
they should not go any higher, so the dog days of August will be
late to arrive. Temperatures will hover just below seasonal norms,
which run from the mid to upper 60s for lows and the mid to upper
80s for highs this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period.  Scattered cu will continue to develop this afternoon.  Some
of these could gain some vertical depth near KLEX, thus cannot rule
out a stray shower there, but will continue to leave the forecast
dry as think most activity will remain off to the north.  Otherwise,
cigs/vsbys will remain VFR at all sites through this evening.

Skies will go partly cloudy tonight as winds go mostly calm.
Despite there not being any light fog the past couple of nights,
think there may be a slightly better chance tonight at KLEX as
low-level moisture is a bit more established.  Therefore, will
introduce a brief period of MVFR vsbys toward dawn.  Otherwise, all
sites should remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 301914
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
214 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in decent agreement for this
forecast package, along with most deterministic guidance.

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the axis of the
prominent mid level shrtwv will be moving to the east of the PAH
forecast area. There may be enough unstable moist air in place
between 850 and 700 mb, and lift for a few showers and tstms Sat
afternoon in the Pennyrile region of KY and adjacent parts of swrn
IN. After that, high pressure at the sfc is forecast to sink into
our region, and the mid/upper pattern should become very slack on
the edge of a persistent ridge over the swrn CONUS, and capped for
much of the time, meaning rain-free conditions and a slow warming
trend through next week, as the sun`s energy works on the reasonably
dry air mass.

By Day 7, a cold front will be on the approach but well to our north
as nrn stream shrtwv energy begins to change the mid/upper pattern.
For now, the forecast remains dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For this writing, VFR Cigs will prevail as model time/height
cross sections reveal a gradual lowering of peak RH in the
850-700mb layer. Some flirtation with MVFR decks should, however,
begin late in the planning period. Pops, for now, are low enough
to preclude mention at terminals, but that may need adjustment,
particularly for KCGI/KPAH, where the higher chances reside.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 301914
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
214 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means are in decent agreement for this
forecast package, along with most deterministic guidance.

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the axis of the
prominent mid level shrtwv will be moving to the east of the PAH
forecast area. There may be enough unstable moist air in place
between 850 and 700 mb, and lift for a few showers and tstms Sat
afternoon in the Pennyrile region of KY and adjacent parts of swrn
IN. After that, high pressure at the sfc is forecast to sink into
our region, and the mid/upper pattern should become very slack on
the edge of a persistent ridge over the swrn CONUS, and capped for
much of the time, meaning rain-free conditions and a slow warming
trend through next week, as the sun`s energy works on the reasonably
dry air mass.

By Day 7, a cold front will be on the approach but well to our north
as nrn stream shrtwv energy begins to change the mid/upper pattern.
For now, the forecast remains dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For this writing, VFR Cigs will prevail as model time/height
cross sections reveal a gradual lowering of peak RH in the
850-700mb layer. Some flirtation with MVFR decks should, however,
begin late in the planning period. Pops, for now, are low enough
to preclude mention at terminals, but that may need adjustment,
particularly for KCGI/KPAH, where the higher chances reside.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 301829
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

With the beginning of the extended forecast period, the mean trough
axis with the deterministic medium range guidance moves to the
eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Any lingering
precipitation moves east of the trough axis Friday night into
Saturday over the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

Beyond Saturday, the eastern limb of the ridge axis, centered over
the four corners area of the desert Southwest, moves eastward into
the WFO PAH forecast area. This will bring more stable air aloft and
lesser moisture, effectively capping any convection for the area
through the remainder of the forecast period.  With the lack of
precipitation, etc...and greater thermal thickness and insolation, a
gradual rise in temperatures into the upper 80s can be expected for
the latter part of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For this writing, VFR Cigs will prevail as model time/height
cross sections reveal a gradual lowering of peak RH in the
850-700mb layer. Some flirtation with MVFR decks should, however,
begin late in the planning period. Pops, for now, are low enough
to preclude mention at terminals, but that may need adjustment,
particularly for KCGI/KPAH, where the higher chances reside.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 301829
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
129 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A nice slug of moisture was overrunning the surface and depicted
graphically in the 850-700 mb layer. It shows up nicely on visible
imagery and the radar mosaic even has some shower activity
associated with it to our west. Model time-height cross sections
reveal the presence of this moisture in that layer more or less
through the short term time frame, with the net result being an
introduction and lingering of some small PoPs in our forecast.

A closer examination shows it is tied to some short wave energy
that is/will be rounding the broader long wave trof, meaning it
will take a track into/across the lower MS valley, making passage
by Friday. Highest Pops thus will be in our south and west,
tapering to lowest north and east, with peak Pops (still just in
the chance/scattered category) on its approach/passage, first
Thursday, with just a lingering slgt chance mention Friday. Loss
of diurnal fuel at night s/b enuf to preclude nocturnal mention,
we think.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

With the beginning of the extended forecast period, the mean trough
axis with the deterministic medium range guidance moves to the
eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Any lingering
precipitation moves east of the trough axis Friday night into
Saturday over the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

Beyond Saturday, the eastern limb of the ridge axis, centered over
the four corners area of the desert Southwest, moves eastward into
the WFO PAH forecast area. This will bring more stable air aloft and
lesser moisture, effectively capping any convection for the area
through the remainder of the forecast period.  With the lack of
precipitation, etc...and greater thermal thickness and insolation, a
gradual rise in temperatures into the upper 80s can be expected for
the latter part of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 112 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

For this writing, VFR Cigs will prevail as model time/height
cross sections reveal a gradual lowering of peak RH in the
850-700mb layer. Some flirtation with MVFR decks should, however,
begin late in the planning period. Pops, for now, are low enough
to preclude mention at terminals, but that may need adjustment,
particularly for KCGI/KPAH, where the higher chances reside.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

DID AN UPDATE TO ADD IN A SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH THE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS
AND GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR/NAM12 THE AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD STAY
MAINLY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONCERN
THAT IT COULD BRUSH US THAT IT HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS...
ZONES...AND HWO. ALSO FINE TUNED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...GENERALLY RAISING THEM A COUPLE OF DEGREES. THE UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND GRIDS SENT TO THE WEB AND NDFD SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE
VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT
RULE OUT LOWER VIS AND LOW CIGS FOR A TIME AROUND DAWN IN THE
VALLEYS...BUT ANOTHER DAY OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD
HELP THE BOUNDARY LAYER DRY OUT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT. THE FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Early this morning, dewpts were hovering in the mid to upper 50s so
think that the record low temps (lower 50s) will be safe July 30th.
With dewpt depressions becoming very low this morning, think that
some locations will experience a light patchy fog especially in
valleys and typical fog prone areas.  Any fog that forms will
quickly burn off after sunrise.

The rest of the day will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and slightly warmer temps than yesterday.  Expect high temps to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  Also this
afternoon a shortwave will drop south in the broad upper trough over
the region possibly sparking a shower or isld rumble of thunder over
southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass region of KY.  This setup looks
very similar to Tues but with precip extent possibly more south into
our region.  Therefore did expand the 20% POPs south a bit.

Tonight and Thurs expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as
upper level troughing and sfc ridging continues.  Low temps tonight
look to reach the mid 50s to low 60s with highs in the lower 80s for
Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

A stagnant upper air pattern will feature continued ridging across
the interior Pacific Northwest and troughing across the Great Lakes
and the Lower Ohio Valley. Only towards Monday will the eastern
troughing relax, with slowly building heights commencing east of the
Mississippi River.

Expect dry weather Thursday with generally light winds and
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 60s at night,
which will stay a few degrees below seasonal averages.

The GFS and NAM show a sharpening of the general troughiness over
the Lower Ohio Valley as a weak shortwave descends south across the
upper midwest on Friday. Despite the lack of Gulf moisture, isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible Friday and
Saturday, as the position of the axis of the 500mb trough is
forecast to remain to our west through late Saturday. Our best
coverage, while still just scattered, will occur Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will not change much
from the previous day.

Drier air will arrive Sunday as the 500mb trough axis moves east and
surface high pressure builds east across Illinois and Indiana.
Mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dewpoints and warmer
afternoon highs are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Highs by
Tuesday will slowly rise towards the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period.  Scattered cu will continue to develop this afternoon.  Some
of these could gain some vertical depth near KLEX, thus cannot rule
out a stray shower there, but will continue to leave the forecast
dry as think most activity will remain off to the north.  Otherwise,
cigs/vsbys will remain VFR at all sites through this evening.

Skies will go partly cloudy tonight as winds go mostly calm.
Despite there not being any light fog the past couple of nights,
think there may be a slightly better chance tonight at KLEX as
low-level moisture is a bit more established.  Therefore, will
introduce a brief period of MVFR vsbys toward dawn.  Otherwise, all
sites should remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Early this morning, dewpts were hovering in the mid to upper 50s so
think that the record low temps (lower 50s) will be safe July 30th.
With dewpt depressions becoming very low this morning, think that
some locations will experience a light patchy fog especially in
valleys and typical fog prone areas.  Any fog that forms will
quickly burn off after sunrise.

The rest of the day will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and slightly warmer temps than yesterday.  Expect high temps to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  Also this
afternoon a shortwave will drop south in the broad upper trough over
the region possibly sparking a shower or isld rumble of thunder over
southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass region of KY.  This setup looks
very similar to Tues but with precip extent possibly more south into
our region.  Therefore did expand the 20% POPs south a bit.

Tonight and Thurs expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as
upper level troughing and sfc ridging continues.  Low temps tonight
look to reach the mid 50s to low 60s with highs in the lower 80s for
Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

A stagnant upper air pattern will feature continued ridging across
the interior Pacific Northwest and troughing across the Great Lakes
and the Lower Ohio Valley. Only towards Monday will the eastern
troughing relax, with slowly building heights commencing east of the
Mississippi River.

Expect dry weather Thursday with generally light winds and
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 60s at night,
which will stay a few degrees below seasonal averages.

The GFS and NAM show a sharpening of the general troughiness over
the Lower Ohio Valley as a weak shortwave descends south across the
upper midwest on Friday. Despite the lack of Gulf moisture, isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible Friday and
Saturday, as the position of the axis of the 500mb trough is
forecast to remain to our west through late Saturday. Our best
coverage, while still just scattered, will occur Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will not change much
from the previous day.

Drier air will arrive Sunday as the 500mb trough axis moves east and
surface high pressure builds east across Illinois and Indiana.
Mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dewpoints and warmer
afternoon highs are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Highs by
Tuesday will slowly rise towards the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure will keep mainly VFR conditions through the TAF
period.  Scattered cu will continue to develop this afternoon.  Some
of these could gain some vertical depth near KLEX, thus cannot rule
out a stray shower there, but will continue to leave the forecast
dry as think most activity will remain off to the north.  Otherwise,
cigs/vsbys will remain VFR at all sites through this evening.

Skies will go partly cloudy tonight as winds go mostly calm.
Despite there not being any light fog the past couple of nights,
think there may be a slightly better chance tonight at KLEX as
low-level moisture is a bit more established.  Therefore, will
introduce a brief period of MVFR vsbys toward dawn.  Otherwise, all
sites should remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER
EAST KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FEW SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO MOVE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA ALREADY THIS MORNING. THE
EARLY MORNING FOG HAS NOW BURNED OFF WITH JUST A SMATTERING OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER THE AREA. MORNING LOWS WERE GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 50S...THOUGH SOME UPPER 40S DID OCCUR WITH A 48 DEGREE READING
AT ISLAND CITY IN OWSLEY COUNTY AS THE COLD SPOT. JACKSON SET A
RECORD WITH 52 DEGREES...THANKS TO EARLY MORNING FOG SETTING IN AND
KNOCKING OFF ABOUT 3 DEGREES...AND LONDON TIED THEIRS AT 54. A GOOD
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP SEND READINGS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S BY LATE AFTERNOON. DO STILL ANTICIPATE A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM ANY SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO DEVELOP...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR THAT IS TOO LOW MENTION IN THE GRIDS OR ZONES...ATTM.
ALSO...UPDATED THE T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND
CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
A FRESH SET OF ZONES WAS ISSUED...PRIMARILY TO REMOVE THE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301158 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301055
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Early this morning, dewpts were hovering in the mid to upper 50s so
think that the record low temps (lower 50s) will be safe July 30th.
With dewpt depressions becoming very low this morning, think that
some locations will experience a light patchy fog especially in
valleys and typical fog prone areas.  Any fog that forms will
quickly burn off after sunrise.

The rest of the day will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and slightly warmer temps than yesterday.  Expect high temps to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  Also this
afternoon a shortwave will drop south in the broad upper trough over
the region possibly sparking a shower or isld rumble of thunder over
southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass region of KY.  This setup looks
very similar to Tues but with precip extent possibly more south into
our region.  Therefore did expand the 20% POPs south a bit.

Tonight and Thurs expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as
upper level troughing and sfc ridging continues.  Low temps tonight
look to reach the mid 50s to low 60s with highs in the lower 80s for
Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

A stagnant upper air pattern will feature continued ridging across
the interior Pacific Northwest and troughing across the Great Lakes
and the Lower Ohio Valley. Only towards Monday will the eastern
troughing relax, with slowly building heights commencing east of the
Mississippi River.

Expect dry weather Thursday with generally light winds and
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 60s at night,
which will stay a few degrees below seasonal averages.

The GFS and NAM show a sharpening of the general troughiness over
the Lower Ohio Valley as a weak shortwave descends south across the
upper midwest on Friday. Despite the lack of Gulf moisture, isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible Friday and
Saturday, as the position of the axis of the 500mb trough is
forecast to remain to our west through late Saturday. Our best
coverage, while still just scattered, will occur Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will not change much
from the previous day.

Drier air will arrive Sunday as the 500mb trough axis moves east and
surface high pressure builds east across Illinois and Indiana.
Mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dewpoints and warmer
afternoon highs are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Highs by
Tuesday will slowly rise towards the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure stretching from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301055
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Early this morning, dewpts were hovering in the mid to upper 50s so
think that the record low temps (lower 50s) will be safe July 30th.
With dewpt depressions becoming very low this morning, think that
some locations will experience a light patchy fog especially in
valleys and typical fog prone areas.  Any fog that forms will
quickly burn off after sunrise.

The rest of the day will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and slightly warmer temps than yesterday.  Expect high temps to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  Also this
afternoon a shortwave will drop south in the broad upper trough over
the region possibly sparking a shower or isld rumble of thunder over
southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass region of KY.  This setup looks
very similar to Tues but with precip extent possibly more south into
our region.  Therefore did expand the 20% POPs south a bit.

Tonight and Thurs expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as
upper level troughing and sfc ridging continues.  Low temps tonight
look to reach the mid 50s to low 60s with highs in the lower 80s for
Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

A stagnant upper air pattern will feature continued ridging across
the interior Pacific Northwest and troughing across the Great Lakes
and the Lower Ohio Valley. Only towards Monday will the eastern
troughing relax, with slowly building heights commencing east of the
Mississippi River.

Expect dry weather Thursday with generally light winds and
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 60s at night,
which will stay a few degrees below seasonal averages.

The GFS and NAM show a sharpening of the general troughiness over
the Lower Ohio Valley as a weak shortwave descends south across the
upper midwest on Friday. Despite the lack of Gulf moisture, isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible Friday and
Saturday, as the position of the axis of the 500mb trough is
forecast to remain to our west through late Saturday. Our best
coverage, while still just scattered, will occur Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will not change much
from the previous day.

Drier air will arrive Sunday as the 500mb trough axis moves east and
surface high pressure builds east across Illinois and Indiana.
Mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dewpoints and warmer
afternoon highs are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Highs by
Tuesday will slowly rise towards the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure stretching from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300837
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
337 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Short term will be dominated by stagnant closed low over southeast
Canada. Short wave energy rotating southeast through the Southern
Plains will probably remain shunted south of our forecast area
Thursday, taking the highest shower/thunderstorm chances across
OK and AR. Will leaving some small chc pops over portions of se MO
just in case that region receives a glancing blow, but any amounts
would be very light.

Another round of short wave energy will rotate southeast through
the Midwest on Friday. Most of this energy should stay north of
our region, but increasing moisture and instability during the day
could aid in at least some isolated thunderstorm development.

With the upper low firmly in place over se Canada will ensure that
temperatures remain below seasonal norms, tho there should be a
couple degrees warming each day. Saw no reason to deviate much
from the MAV/MET MOS numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

With the beginning of the extended forecast period, the mean trough
axis with the deterministic medium range guidance moves to the
eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Any lingering
precipitation moves east of the trough axis Friday night into
Saturday over the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

Beyond Saturday, the eastern limb of the ridge axis, centered over
the four corners area of the desert Southwest, moves eastward into
the WFO PAH forecast area. This will bring more stable air aloft and
lesser moisture, effectively capping any convection for the area
through the remainder of the forecast period.  With the lack of
precipitation, etc...and greater thermal thickness and insolation, a
gradual rise in temperatures into the upper 80s can be expected for
the latter part of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at
KCGI/KPAH between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through
the period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west
to east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Calm winds overnight should pick up
out of the west southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z, then go
calm again after 01Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 300837
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
337 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Short term will be dominated by stagnant closed low over southeast
Canada. Short wave energy rotating southeast through the Southern
Plains will probably remain shunted south of our forecast area
Thursday, taking the highest shower/thunderstorm chances across
OK and AR. Will leaving some small chc pops over portions of se MO
just in case that region receives a glancing blow, but any amounts
would be very light.

Another round of short wave energy will rotate southeast through
the Midwest on Friday. Most of this energy should stay north of
our region, but increasing moisture and instability during the day
could aid in at least some isolated thunderstorm development.

With the upper low firmly in place over se Canada will ensure that
temperatures remain below seasonal norms, tho there should be a
couple degrees warming each day. Saw no reason to deviate much
from the MAV/MET MOS numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

With the beginning of the extended forecast period, the mean trough
axis with the deterministic medium range guidance moves to the
eastern edge of the WFO PAH forecast area. Any lingering
precipitation moves east of the trough axis Friday night into
Saturday over the Pennyrile region of West Kentucky.

Beyond Saturday, the eastern limb of the ridge axis, centered over
the four corners area of the desert Southwest, moves eastward into
the WFO PAH forecast area. This will bring more stable air aloft and
lesser moisture, effectively capping any convection for the area
through the remainder of the forecast period.  With the lack of
precipitation, etc...and greater thermal thickness and insolation, a
gradual rise in temperatures into the upper 80s can be expected for
the latter part of the forecast.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at
KCGI/KPAH between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through
the period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west
to east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Calm winds overnight should pick up
out of the west southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z, then go
calm again after 01Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 300753
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 300753
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KLMK 300650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Early this morning, dewpts were hovering in the mid to upper 50s so
think that the record low temps (lower 50s) will be safe July 30th.
With dewpt depressions becoming very low this morning, think that
some locations will experience a light patchy fog especially in
valleys and typical fog prone areas.  Any fog that forms will
quickly burn off after sunrise.

The rest of the day will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and slightly warmer temps than yesterday.  Expect high temps to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  Also this
afternoon a shortwave will drop south in the broad upper trough over
the region possibly sparking a shower or isld rumble of thunder over
southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass region of KY.  This setup looks
very similar to Tues but with precip extent possibly more south into
our region.  Therefore did expand the 20% POPs south a bit.

Tonight and Thurs expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as
upper level troughing and sfc ridging continues.  Low temps tonight
look to reach the mid 50s to low 60s with highs in the lower 80s for
Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

A stagnant upper air pattern will feature continued ridging across
the interior Pacific Northwest and troughing across the Great Lakes
and the Lower Ohio Valley. Only towards Monday will the eastern
troughing relax, with slowly building heights commencing east of the
Mississippi River.

Expect dry weather Thursday with generally light winds and
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 60s at night,
which will stay a few degrees below seasonal averages.

The GFS and NAM show a sharpening of the general troughiness over
the Lower Ohio Valley as a weak shortwave descends south across the
upper midwest on Friday. Despite the lack of Gulf moisture, isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible Friday and
Saturday, as the position of the axis of the 500mb trough is
forecast to remain to our west through late Saturday. Our best
coverage, while still just scattered, will occur Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will not change much
from the previous day.

Drier air will arrive Sunday as the 500mb trough axis moves east and
surface high pressure builds east across Illinois and Indiana.
Mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dewpoints and warmer
afternoon highs are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Highs by
Tuesday will slowly rise towards the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Just enough low level moisture may combine
with subsidence over the area to create some light MVFR BR at BWG
and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
250 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Early this morning, dewpts were hovering in the mid to upper 50s so
think that the record low temps (lower 50s) will be safe July 30th.
With dewpt depressions becoming very low this morning, think that
some locations will experience a light patchy fog especially in
valleys and typical fog prone areas.  Any fog that forms will
quickly burn off after sunrise.

The rest of the day will feature mostly clear to partly cloudy skies
and slightly warmer temps than yesterday.  Expect high temps to
reach the upper 70s and lower 80s this afternoon.  Also this
afternoon a shortwave will drop south in the broad upper trough over
the region possibly sparking a shower or isld rumble of thunder over
southeast Indiana to the Bluegrass region of KY.  This setup looks
very similar to Tues but with precip extent possibly more south into
our region.  Therefore did expand the 20% POPs south a bit.

Tonight and Thurs expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies as
upper level troughing and sfc ridging continues.  Low temps tonight
look to reach the mid 50s to low 60s with highs in the lower 80s for
Thurs.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

A stagnant upper air pattern will feature continued ridging across
the interior Pacific Northwest and troughing across the Great Lakes
and the Lower Ohio Valley. Only towards Monday will the eastern
troughing relax, with slowly building heights commencing east of the
Mississippi River.

Expect dry weather Thursday with generally light winds and
temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to the lower 60s at night,
which will stay a few degrees below seasonal averages.

The GFS and NAM show a sharpening of the general troughiness over
the Lower Ohio Valley as a weak shortwave descends south across the
upper midwest on Friday. Despite the lack of Gulf moisture, isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening showers are possible Friday and
Saturday, as the position of the axis of the 500mb trough is
forecast to remain to our west through late Saturday. Our best
coverage, while still just scattered, will occur Saturday afternoon
and evening. Temperatures Friday and Saturday will not change much
from the previous day.

Drier air will arrive Sunday as the 500mb trough axis moves east and
surface high pressure builds east across Illinois and Indiana.
Mostly sunny skies with slightly lower dewpoints and warmer
afternoon highs are anticipated Sunday through Tuesday. Highs by
Tuesday will slowly rise towards the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Just enough low level moisture may combine
with subsidence over the area to create some light MVFR BR at BWG
and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300618 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300618 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY
COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BASED ON
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR FOG...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG TO BE CONSTRICTED TO THE DEEPER
RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY.
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Just enough low level moisture may combine
with subsidence over the area to create some light MVFR BR at BWG
and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Just enough low level moisture may combine
with subsidence over the area to create some light MVFR BR at BWG
and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300432 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at
KCGI/KPAH between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through
the period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west
to east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Calm winds overnight should pick up
out of the west southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z, then go
calm again after 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH






000
FXUS63 KPAH 300432 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at
KCGI/KPAH between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through
the period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west
to east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Calm winds overnight should pick up
out of the west southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z, then go
calm again after 01Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KJKL 300228
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR TEMP DIFFERENCES SHOW WE ARE RUNNING A SOLID 3 TO 6
DEGREES LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE AND
LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BOTTOM OUT A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER THAN CURRENT FORECAST MINS. THEREFORE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS
JUST A BIT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONE PACKAGE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING AND SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR LATEST TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEW POINTS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO
THE GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
ANY DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 300057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWING DIMINISHING ECHOS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...
INDICATING THAT SPRINKLES ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE REGION.
PLAN TO REMOVE SPRINKLES BY NEXT UPDATE. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES
ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF ATYPICAL DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL KEEP
THE THREAT OF A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH TOMORROW. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT QUITE
WELL THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT.
CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND MAINLY ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR
LATEST HOURLY TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ALL BENEATH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT LOW ALOFT...COOLER TEMPERATURES
JUST OFF THE SFC ARE ALSO INDUCING STRATO CU ACROSS THE AREA FURTHER
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY. IN FACT...
SEVERAL SPOTS MAY HAVE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TODAY NOT FAR
FROM 70 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z VARY FROM THE MID 60S NORTH OF
THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. DEWPOINTS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS NOTED. ON RADAR...A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND OVER FAR EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART ANY
DISCERNIBLE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA. THE CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY CLEARING OUT...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THEY ALL DEPICT THE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY
COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION AND HOLDING IN PLACE AS A
PIVOT SOUTH OF ITS CORE TAKES PLACE. THIS WILL REACH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE OHIO VALLEY THIS
MEANS CONTINUED LOW HEIGHTS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF DECENT SHORTWAVES RUNNING THROUGH THIS PART OF THE TROUGH TO
AFFECT EAST KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS FROM THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT...FOR LATE JULY...
THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR THE VALLEYS FOR THE COLDER
TEMPS AND KEEP THE RIDGES...ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT...A NOTCH MILDER.
HAVE SET UP THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRID TONIGHT...AND TO A SIMILAR
EXTENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...FOR THIS. IN ADDITION...ANTICIPATE SOME
PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD DAWN IN THE VALLEYS BOTH
NIGHTS. FOR WEDNESDAY PROPER...WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHING...THE NAM12 SPITS OUT SOME LIGHT PCPN IN OUR NORTH. THIS
IS A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING
IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES. GIVEN THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES...WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING...
BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE IT AS JUST SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE
GRIDS AND ZONES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING POINT
FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE
CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM. MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BETTER
REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...OUTSIDE OF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...KEPT THEM SUB 14 PERCENT FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST PERIOD. DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THE POPS ENDED UP CLOSER
TO THE WETTER MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT WILL DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK LEAVING OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER LEVEL
SETUP WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT NOW STALLED ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS TO OUR SOUTH WILL WAFFLE AROUND BEING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE PERIOD WILL START OUT DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS OUR LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY TRANSPORTING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WESTWARD. FOCUSING MECHANISMS ARE DIFFUSE AND WEAK...SO THE NET
RESULT SHOULD BE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT MAINLY FOCUSED DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
PUSHING THE DEEPER MOISTURE BACK TO OUR EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 857 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

CIGS...WHERE THEY EXISTED ARE SCATTERING OUT WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING. THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER TONIGHT SHOULD YIELD
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND VALLEY FOG FORMATION. FOR THIS...HAVE
ALLOWED SOME MVFR FOG AT JKL AND SJS AND A TIME OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
LOZ AND SME BETWEEN 07 AND 13Z. HOWEVER WITH DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...
CROSSOVER DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 50S FORECAST FELT IT PRUDENT TO STAY MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN
GUIDANCE. FOG WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAWN WEDNESDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...BUT
PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST...NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/RAY






000
FXUS63 KPAH 292343 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at all
sites between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west to
east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Light and variable winds early
should go calm around sunset, then pick up out fo the west
southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292343 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

The short term forecast remains largely unchanged, with the same
basic synoptics and only minor/subtle massaging/tweeking
necessary. Cu field today is less expansive/dense than yesterday,
given the lower rh in the lower trop.

Mos suggests patchy fog developing tonight, which is possible. But
it looks like some upstream mid-high cloud could advect in around
the same time frame, thus limiting its expanse.

Tmrw we see 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 6C, but with low
layer flow having a tough time returning (surface high anchors
across FA and to the east), the lower trop will remain moisture
deficient and while we could not totally rule out an isolated
diurnally aided shower or storm, the PoPs remain
low enough to preclude from mention. This represents no
significant change from past few model runs/forecasts.

By Thursday, some more vigorous energy/moisture advection in the
southern stream promotes a slight uptick in the overall PoP, to at
least warrant a slgt chance mention during the diurnally aided
daytime hours. This will apply for all but the far eastern 1/3 of
the FA, where lingering surface high pressure should suppress the
parcel uvm field.

Daytime Highs should return to the lower 80s FA-wide beginning
tmrw. Lows will make a gradual move toward, and will eventually
achieve, the lower 60s by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 116 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Medium confidence in the extended.

The model runs constantly show a persistent trough over the eastern
half of the US. They are also in agreement on tapping into the
monsoonal flow overtopping the high over the southwest. It pulls
this moisture across the plains and reaches the area in concert with
the axis of the upper level trough. It also depicts a pool of
moisture advancing from the north caught up in the northwest flow
from the upper level trough. Forecast sounding are moistening up as
result of this combination...not as dry aloft as previous runs. The
question remains will the western moisture stay far enough north and
northern moisture make it far enough south to produce precip over
the area. Northerly winds indicate a surface reflection from the
upper level system may materialize as a weak cold front late in the
week. Will make final call when the 12z Tue ECMWF arrives. The ECMWF
is and has been advertising a dry weekend with the less consistent
gfs starting to lean that way a bit. Will likely have to maintain a
late week pop but may be able to dry things out for the weekend.
Otherwise the next system appears to be a cold front approaching mid
to late next week.

Not much change in temperatures with a slow warming trend through
the extended and near steady dew points.

Although there is still some run to run discontinuity especially
with the GFS. The models are consistently decreasing pops late
week and into the weekend. However the operational GFS come into
much better agreement with the upper level trough late in the
week. Its previous run indicated a slower cut off upper low over
the lower Ohio Valley. Now the 12z Sunday run shows a progressive
open low lifting out of the area quickly. This would be a
reflection of the lower pops from the extended init. Also with a
north wind predominant through the week with some easterly flow at
times...would not expect to advect adequate moisture for a
widespread rain event. However with a major upper level trough
swinging through and dew points in the 60s combined with daytime
heating could yield at least chance or slight chance for
thunderstorms.

Tweaked temps down a degree or two from what the extended init
yielded mostly for collaboration purposes.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

Surface high pressure should keep the region dry at all TAF sites
through the period. With the exception of possible MVFR fog at all
sites between 09-12Z, VFR conditions should prevail through the
period, however cloud cover is expected to increase from west to
east during the latter half of the period as a storm system
develops over the southern plains. Light and variable winds early
should go calm around sunset, then pick up out fo the west
southwest AOB 5 knots generally after 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...JP
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292246
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Dew points may bump up a couple of degrees
tonight so there could be some MVFR BR at BWG and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292246
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

High pressure building from the Plains to the mid-Atlantic will
provide us with mostly clear/partly cloudy VFR skies and light
west/northwest breezes.  Dew points may bump up a couple of degrees
tonight so there could be some MVFR BR at BWG and LEX around sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 292058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
458 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 458 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Isolated light rain showers have developed this afternoon across
southern and central Indiana in a corridor of enhanced instability
and low level convergence, with enhancement across northern Indiana
due to interaction with a lake breeze boundary. Mesoanalysis shows
that these showers (and thunderstorms north of Indianapolis) should
weaken as they slide south towards increasingly stable air, and also
as the atmosphere stabilizes with the lowering sun. Nevertheless, a
few small light rain showers are threatening the LMK CWA, with a few
sprinkles possibly having already fallen.  Have gone ahead and added
a very small PoP, in the upper teens, generally northwest of a line
from Madison to New Albany to Morgantown for the next couple of
hours.

Any shower that might move into the area will be very small, very
light, and very brief.  Overall, we will still be able to enjoy a
beautiful summer evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

High pressure will build in through this TAF period. Winds will be
out of the northwest at 7-9 knots through the afternoon, becoming
light and variable to calm tonight. They will shift to more westerly
tomorrow. Scattered cu will develop this afternoon and should
dissipate overnight. With high pressure overhead, some light fog
will be possible at BWG and LEX tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 292058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
458 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 458 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

Isolated light rain showers have developed this afternoon across
southern and central Indiana in a corridor of enhanced instability
and low level convergence, with enhancement across northern Indiana
due to interaction with a lake breeze boundary. Mesoanalysis shows
that these showers (and thunderstorms north of Indianapolis) should
weaken as they slide south towards increasingly stable air, and also
as the atmosphere stabilizes with the lowering sun. Nevertheless, a
few small light rain showers are threatening the LMK CWA, with a few
sprinkles possibly having already fallen.  Have gone ahead and added
a very small PoP, in the upper teens, generally northwest of a line
from Madison to New Albany to Morgantown for the next couple of
hours.

Any shower that might move into the area will be very small, very
light, and very brief.  Overall, we will still be able to enjoy a
beautiful summer evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

It has been quite pleasant for late July today with current
temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the region and dewpoints
in the lower 50s. As of 3 pm the only potential record low maximum
temperature is at Frankfort. The current temperature there is 72 and
the record is 74, set in 1994 (and previous years).

The upper level low will remain in place for the short term period.
At the surface, high pressure will continue to build in from the
west tonight. Dewpoints are expected to start rising slowly tonight
into tomorrow, though they should still only be in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. We will see good radiational cooling tonight with mostly
clear skies and light and variable to calm winds. Lows will be a bit
warmer than last night, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60. Some
patchy fog may be possible in river valleys tonight. Below are the
current record and forecast low temperatures for tomorrow.

                Record      Forecast

Bowling Green: 53, 1965     58
    Frankfort: 50, 1965     55
   Louisville: 55, 1965     61
    Lexington: 51, 1965     58

Tomorrow will be a few degrees warmer than today with highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s expected. As a wave drops through the upper
level trough it could bring a few showers to the far northern border
of our forecast area, so added in slight chance pops there. These
will only last for a few hours in the afternoon. Otherwise, dry
conditions are expected. Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature continued upper-level troughing over the region, which will
slowly begin to break down through the long term period.  This will
mean a gradual warmup through the extended, as highs climb back
closer to normal values.

Much of the long term period will remain dry, except perhaps from
Friday into Saturday.  Another reinforcing shortwave trough will
dive south into the Ohio Valley, helping to once again carve out the
upper low over the region.  This cold core aloft may be enough to
spark some mainly diurnally-driven isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms.  However, deep moisture will continue to remain
limited to the Southeast, as PWATs over the Ohio Valley will only be
around 1.25 inches.  So despite the upper-level support, this lack
of moisture coupled with a very disorganized surface pressure
pattern should mean convection will struggle to become too
widespread.

As mentioned above, temperatures through the period will slowly
begin to moderate.  Highs in the mid 80s will persist late this week
into the weekend, before temperature begin to climb back into the
upper 80s and lower 90s by early next week.  Overnight lows will be
in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

High pressure will build in through this TAF period. Winds will be
out of the northwest at 7-9 knots through the afternoon, becoming
light and variable to calm tonight. They will shift to more westerly
tomorrow. Scattered cu will develop this afternoon and should
dissipate overnight. With high pressure overhead, some light fog
will be possible at BWG and LEX tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......EER




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