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000
FXUS63 KJKL 281507
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PIKE COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH SUCH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE NOTHING HAS BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR. HOWEVER...
KPBX HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW ON AND OFF THIS MORNING. THE
VISIBILITY EVEN DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...1 3/4
SM. SO SNOWFALL IS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN JUST THE ISOLATED FLURRY OR
TWO WITH SOME VERY LOCALIZED UPSLOPE LIFTING GOING ON IN THAT AREA.
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO MENTION SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. ALSO BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THIS CLEARING DOWN AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS CIGS START TO DROP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281507
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE PIKE COUNTY THIS MORNING. WITH SUCH A SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE NOTHING HAS BEEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR. HOWEVER...
KPBX HAS BEEN REPORTING LIGHT SNOW ON AND OFF THIS MORNING. THE
VISIBILITY EVEN DROPPED BELOW 2 MILES FOR A PERIOD OF TIME...1 3/4
SM. SO SNOWFALL IS A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN JUST THE ISOLATED FLURRY OR
TWO WITH SOME VERY LOCALIZED UPSLOPE LIFTING GOING ON IN THAT AREA.
UPDATED THE FORECAST PACKAGE TO MENTION SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRY
ACTIVITY IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. ALSO BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THIS CLEARING DOWN AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS CIGS START TO DROP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THIS CLEARING DOWN AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS CIGS START TO DROP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THIS CLEARING DOWN AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS CIGS START TO DROP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THIS CLEARING DOWN AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS CIGS START TO DROP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

STILL SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE FAR EAST ALONG WITH A STRAY FLURRY
POSSIBLE. HAVE SLOWED THIS CLEARING DOWN AND ALSO FINE TUNED THE
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE EVENING FROM THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTINESS POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAWN IN THE NORTHWEST
PARTS OF THE AREA AS CIGS START TO DROP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

The small patch of MVFR ceilings in the kowb/kevv areas has all but
disappeared as of 11z. VFR conditions should prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
late today. Cigs will lower tonight, but should still remain at or
above 10k feet.

Light east winds will veer to the southeast and increase to around
10 knots this afternoon. Gusty surface winds and/or llws are
possible late tonight as a southwest low level jet increases to
around 50 knots at 5k feet.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 281049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will
keep our weather quiet with mostly clear skies and generally light
winds into this evening.  A storm system approaching from the west
will increase winds and clouds after midnight. Widely scattered
light precipitation will be possible towards the end of the SDF TAF
period but impacts are expected to be small enough to leave out for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will
keep our weather quiet with mostly clear skies and generally light
winds into this evening.  A storm system approaching from the west
will increase winds and clouds after midnight. Widely scattered
light precipitation will be possible towards the end of the SDF TAF
period but impacts are expected to be small enough to leave out for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will
keep our weather quiet with mostly clear skies and generally light
winds into this evening.  A storm system approaching from the west
will increase winds and clouds after midnight. Widely scattered
light precipitation will be possible towards the end of the SDF TAF
period but impacts are expected to be small enough to leave out for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281049
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 549 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure moving from the Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will
keep our weather quiet with mostly clear skies and generally light
winds into this evening.  A storm system approaching from the west
will increase winds and clouds after midnight. Widely scattered
light precipitation will be possible towards the end of the SDF TAF
period but impacts are expected to be small enough to leave out for
now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
426 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AS WE MOVE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO MIX AND
THEN TO ALL SNOW. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD THINK
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE QUITE LIGHT. DO KEEP THE MENTION OF SLIGHT
CHANCES RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGES INTO EARLY FRIDAY GIVEN THE NW FLOW
THAT SETUP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THAT PERIOD. THIS SURFACE LOW
WILL RESTRENGTHEN ACROSS NEW ENGLAND STATES AS SURFACE HIGH DIVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THIS FRONT DOES BRING COLDER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS DROPPING
INTO THE TEENS FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST AND THIS WILL BRING RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO REASONABLE REBOUND IN TEMPS
WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST
SPOTS. THEN ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
DESERT SW AND PLAINS SATURDAY. THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BE THE NEXT BIG WEATHER MAKER TO AFFECT EASTERN KY THIS COMING
WEEKEND. THAT SAID THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS
BEEN QUITE NOTICEABLE FROM RUN TO RUN. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE GFS IN
REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTED MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...HOWEVER LATEST 00Z/28 IS A BIT MORE INLINE WITH THE LATEST
00Z/28 ECMWF. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE 00Z/28 GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PERTURBATIONS THE SURFACE LOW LOCATIONS VARY
QUITE A BIT. THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON
TIMING AND AMTS OF PRECIP. THIS TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLL IN
TIMING OF PRECIP CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND HOW MUCH
SNOW WE ACTUALLY SEE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY HAVE TRIED TO FOLLOW A MODEL
BLEND APPROACH AT THIS POINT AND ALSO TRIED TO STAY IN REASONABLE
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. KEEP IN MIND RIGHT NOW MUCH OF
THE QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO FALL IN THE FORM
OF RAIN ON SUNDAY WHERE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THAT PERIOD. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY THINK THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

MOVING INTO MONDAY WOULD EXPECT TEMPS TO GENERALLY DROP THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AMT OF DROP WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. THAT SAID THIS SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS AND EVEN
SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME SPOTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY BRINGING SOME RETURN FLOW AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S SOUTH AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KPAH 280916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A small patch of MVFR ceilings will hang tough in the kowb/kevv
areas til around 12z. Otherwise, clearing has occurred at all taf
sites. VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds later today. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots by
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY/RJP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 280916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday night)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A sunny and milder day is anticipated today as a narrow 500 mb
ridge axis traverses the Mississippi Valley this afternoon. The
forecast models are in good agreement on high temps and appear
reasonably good. The exception is in the Ozark foothills of se
Missouri, where guidance was several degrees too cool Tuesday.
This appears to be the case again today. Guidance shows kpof cooler
today than on Tuesday, despite full sun and decent warm advection.

Clouds will increase tonight as a low pressure center tracks east
from the central Plains to northeast Illinois. The trailing cold
front will reach southeast MO and southern IL around 12z. Despite
moderately strong forcing and a 50-knot southwest low level jet,
none of the latest models depict qpf with the front over southeast
MO. Some very light rain develops east of the Mississippi River on
a few of the models, namely the 00z gfs and ecmwf. Will maintain
slight chance pops in those areas for late tonight and Thursday
morning.

Thursday night into Friday, cold high pressure builds southeast
from the northern Plains into the Illinois/Indiana region. This
high should be strong enough to clear out the low clouds Thursday
night. Despite sunshine on Friday, highs should only range from
the mid 30s along I-64 to the lower 40s around kpof. Clouds will
begin to increase Friday night, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

Despite model run to run issues, a trend can be found when
clustering 2 days worth of the EC/GFS solutions (minus the 12z GFS),
and recent GEM. First trend is increasing precip chances late
Saturday night into Sunday, with the second a tilt toward a warmer
scenario, and mainly rain for our area Saturday night through
Sunday, possibly ending as light snow Sunday night. The model
variance handling the split flow scenario seems to have stabilized.
Timing still a bit of an issue, perhaps slower onset late Saturday
into Saturday night, and then with the ending precip Sunday night
(EC faster, 00z GFS has slowed down). Timing moving the main upper
trof through late in the weekend is closer from one model to
another. Saturday is essentially dry, save for maybe the Ozark
foothill region by evening, with increasing PoPs from west to east
Saturday night. Kept rain/snow possibility north, rain south.
Impacts seem minimal northern 1/3, if any at all. Sunday should be
mainly rain all areas, but kept a slight chance mention of S- mainly
nrn 1/3 of the CWFA. Cannot rule out entirely the possibility some
models may shift back the other direction (a little colder), so do
not want to exclude the snow mention. However, that is not the trend
at this time. Monday and Tuesday will be colder, with dry weather
the rule as strong high pressure builds SE across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 315 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2015

A small patch of MVFR ceilings will hang tough in the kowb/kevv
areas til around 12z. Otherwise, clearing has occurred at all taf
sites. VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds later today. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast winds
will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots by
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY/RJP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280850 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280850 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

08Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING A DECENT NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION FOUND IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WHERE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS KEEPING
SOME STRATUS AROUND. IN FACT...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FALLING
OUT OF THESE AS SEEN IN THE KPBX OBS AND THE RADAR IMAGES FROM RLX.
IN THE CLEAR AREAS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING STEADILY WITH THE
RIDGES AND THE VALLEYS LEADING THE PACK...THOUGH AS THE NIGHT HAS
WORN ON THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE DROPPED THE FURTHEST...WHILE THE MORE
OPEN LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN LAGGING...THUS FAR. READINGS AT 3 AM VARY
FROM THE MID TEENS ON THE RIDGES AND THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS WHILE
LOWER 20S ARE FOUND IN MORE OPEN PLACES LIKE SME AND LOZ AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN VALLEYS OF EKQ AND 1A6. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
GENERALLY IN THE MID TEENS TO NEAR 10 ABOVE AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE RETREAT OF THE DEEP
NORTHEAST TROUGH AND WITH IT THE ENERGY STREAM THAT RAN FROM NNW TO
SSE OVER OUR EASTERN BORDER. BRIEF RIDGING WILL FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KENTUCKY THOUGH ANOTHER DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BE
TRAILING QUICKLY BEHIND THESE HIGHER HEIGHTS. THIS TROUGH SLIPS INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY BY MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH A COUPLE OF BATCHES
OF TRAILING ENERGY THAT WILL EVENTUALLY FORM A DEEPER TROUGH FOR THE
NORTHEAST COAST BY WEEK/S END. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES IN THE
SHORT TERM...HAVE FAVORED A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
NAM12 FOR WX DETAILS ON THURSDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE AT DAWN. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW
READINGS TO CLIMB SMARTLY INTO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH AND LOWER 40S
SOUTH EVEN AS HIGH CLOUDS START TO ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THESE HIGH CLOUDS...AND WINDS STARTING TO REACT TO THE SFC
LOW...WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT A DECENT DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING SUNSET FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
EASTERN VALLEYS TO FALL OFF THE FURTHEST AND BE THE LAST TO ENGAGE
WITH THE INCREASING SOUTHERN SFC FLOW...WAITING UNTIL CLOSER TOWARDS
DAWN TO BREAK THEIR TEMPERATURE FALL AND START TO RISE. MEANWHILE...
RIDGES AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP OFF
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THE THICKENING CLOUDS AND
INCREASING SOUTHERN WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB IN THE HOURS BEFORE
DAWN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. PCPN CHANCES SHOULD
ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THURSDAY MORNING WITH
PLACES LIKELY WARMING QUICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MIX AT THE ONSET.
THIS WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED BUT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ENOUGH
OF A CONCERN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE GRIDS...ZONES...OR HWO. AS THE SFC
LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH LATER THURSDAY...ITS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
A BAND OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA THAT AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR DOES
FOLLOW ON WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH THE
LINGERING RAIN BY 00Z FRIDAY IN THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HAVE ADDED A MIX FOR THIS IN THE WX GRIDS TOWARDS THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THE SUPERBLEND
THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME FAIRLY SUBSTANTIVE...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS WINDS...
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE INBOUND FRONTAL SYSTEM. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY...THOUGH WITH ADDED TIMING DETAILS IN THE SPATIAL COVERAGE
OF THE POP/WX GRIDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...IN PARTICULAR.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280814
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 234 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

High pressure over the upper Ohio Valley today will provide us with
mostly sunny skies, light breezes, and temperatures just a few
degrees cooler than normal.

Tonight the high will advance to the East Coast as developing low
pressure moves from Omaha to Chicago.  Temperatures will likely
bottom out by midnight and then begin to creep back up as winds turn
southwesterly and increase to 10 to 15 mph.  Clouds will increase
but little if any measurable precipitation is expected as dry air in
the low levels will take some time to overcome.  Nevertheless, if
any precipitation does make it to the surface, it could be in the
form of a very light wintry mix over the Blue Grass with very light
rain elsewhere.  The best chance for precipitation will be after 4am.

Light rain chances will increase on Thursday as the Chicago low
heads for Toronto and swings its trailing cold front through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.  Moisture is shallow and rainfall
amounts are expected to be on the order of a tenth of an inch.

Southwest winds could get rather gusty Thursday morning and early
afternoon, with gusts of 20 to 25 mph possible.  These winds will
help pull temperatures into the mid 40s to low 50s by midday, but
then temps will fall back into the low and mid 40s by evening behind
the cold front.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 28 2015

...Wintry Mix Possible Late This Weekend...

The main focus in the long term period is on the potential wintry
mix late this weekend across parts of the Ohio Valley.

Thursday night the weather pattern is expected to feature the
departing clipper strengthening across the Northeast US while strong
Canadian high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the
northwest. Lingering moisture trapped within a low level inversion
will likely keep clouds in place east of I-65 Thursday night. The
north/northeast flow will act to anchor the moisture in place Friday
morning, so there is some question on how much clearing will take
place across the northeastern portions of the forecast area during
the day. The 28.00z NAM soundings are the most aggressive with this
inversion/moisture setup, holding a stratus deck in place east/north
of Louisville metro. For now, incorporated a gradual but delayed
clearing trend Friday afternoon. Other areas likely to see more
sunshine as the surface high continues to build southeastward. It`ll
be a seasonably cool day with high temperatures a couple degrees
either side of 32F for most. The exception will be across
south-central KY where mid/upper 30s are expected.

For Saturday, zonal to weak ridging flow moves overhead as the
southwest US trough digs all the way south of the US border. We`ll
likely start off seasonably cold with good radiational cooling
conditions Friday night but rebound into the upper 30s to lower 40s
with a fair amount of sunshine and light winds.

Now onto the late weekend system. The 28.00z guidance wasn`t much of
a confidence booster as models have yet to stabilize on a particular
solution or placement of synoptic features. The lack of run to run
and model to model consistency leaves a lot to be desired in regard
to precipitation type late Saturday night through early Monday
morning. The 28.00z GFS/GEM trended toward a similar path compared
to previous runs and at this time take the surface low on a Memphis
to Louisville to Columbus, Ohio track. Meanwhile, the ECMWF solution
shows a weaker surface low but stronger, faster upper level wave
across the area. The GFS/GEM camp would be warmer /mostly rain/
solution while ECMWF doesn`t draw as much warm air northward thus
brings the wintry mix a bit further south into the forecast area.

At this time, precipitation is expected to spread into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning and could begin as light snow or
a wintry mix. There could be some impacts here as we`ll have a cold,
dry surface and road temperatures likely to be on the colder side
too. If precipitation begins close to or before sunrise, this could
be more problematic.  Then, as warmer air is drawn northward, a
changeover to all rain is likely for most if not all of the area. At
this point, the greatest chances for a period of accumulating snow
look to be across southern Indiana and points northward. While
Sunday into Sunday night would be the main timeframe for
precipitation to fall, once the surface low passes the area, much
colder air begins to quickly dive southward. Another changeover to
wet snow before precipitation tapers off is possible overnight into
Monday morning.

A blend approach was used for the forecast, showing a brief period
of light snow to mix to all rain Saturday night into Sunday morning.
With highs Sunday possibly well into the 40s, transitioned weather
to all rain for much of the day, then brought back a rain/snow mix
to snow late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Confidence is below average in regard to ptype, and the lack of
consistency in the models reduces our confidence even more. If the
thermal profiles are slightly cooler, then the accumulating snow
band could lie further south. This system has a long way to go
before being well sampled so changes and oscillations between the
models are expected. However, there is potential for some impacts to
portions of the area later this weekend into Monday morning, so stay
tuned to the latest.

In the wake of this system, there are signals that a shot of Arctic
cold will encompass much of the Upper Midwest through the Ohio
Valley. This could bring a period of unseasonably cold air with
highs in the lower 30s and overnight lows in the teens.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280635 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA...THEY HAVE MANAGED TO BUILD INTO THE FAR EAST THANKS TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING FROM THESE EASTERN CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MIX OF WEAK CAA AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE RIDGES CAN BE AS COOL
AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE MORE OPEN AREAS
ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER. FOR INSTANCE...JKL IS CURRENTLY 19 DEGREES WHILE
QUICKSAND IS AT 17 AND SME/LOZ ARE 25 AND 23 RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE INTRICACIES THROUGH DAWN. THESE
GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280635 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA...THEY HAVE MANAGED TO BUILD INTO THE FAR EAST THANKS TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING FROM THESE EASTERN CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MIX OF WEAK CAA AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE RIDGES CAN BE AS COOL
AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE MORE OPEN AREAS
ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER. FOR INSTANCE...JKL IS CURRENTLY 19 DEGREES WHILE
QUICKSAND IS AT 17 AND SME/LOZ ARE 25 AND 23 RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE INTRICACIES THROUGH DAWN. THESE
GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280635 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA...THEY HAVE MANAGED TO BUILD INTO THE FAR EAST THANKS TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING FROM THESE EASTERN CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MIX OF WEAK CAA AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE RIDGES CAN BE AS COOL
AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE MORE OPEN AREAS
ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER. FOR INSTANCE...JKL IS CURRENTLY 19 DEGREES WHILE
QUICKSAND IS AT 17 AND SME/LOZ ARE 25 AND 23 RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE INTRICACIES THROUGH DAWN. THESE
GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280635 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

WHILE THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE RETREATED SOUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE AREA...THEY HAVE MANAGED TO BUILD INTO THE FAR EAST THANKS TO
NORTHEAST FLOW AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS FALLING FROM THESE EASTERN CLOUDS AND THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE FORECAST FOR A VERY SMALL PORTION OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...SKIES
ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH A MIX OF WEAK CAA AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING TAKING PLACE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE RIDGES CAN BE AS COOL
AS THE DEEPER VALLEYS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WHILE THE MORE OPEN AREAS
ARE SLIGHTLY MILDER. FOR INSTANCE...JKL IS CURRENTLY 19 DEGREES WHILE
QUICKSAND IS AT 17 AND SME/LOZ ARE 25 AND 23 RESPECTIVELY. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THESE INTRICACIES THROUGH DAWN. THESE
GRID UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

ASIDE FROM SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER SJS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY THEN
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1156 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Low clouds are slowly eroding at BWG and will be gone before flights
resume in the morning.  Otherwise, high pressure moving from the
Ohio Valley to the Appalachians will keep our weather quiet with
mostly clear skies and generally light winds.  A storm system
approaching from the west will increase winds and clouds at SDF
towards the tail end of this TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280234
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
934 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 933 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Nashville radar shows the light wintry precipitation has moved south
of the TN/KY border. Dry conditions are expected the rest of the
night. Just did a quick update to bring the forecast in line with
current conditions. Otherwise, it is in good shape.

Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280226
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS/JKL TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
STEADILY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING HOURS. BY 1 OR 2Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280226
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS/JKL TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
STEADILY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING HOURS. BY 1 OR 2Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 280226
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK ZONE UPDATE. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST WERE TO REMOVE OUTDATED EVENING WIND WORDING FROM THE FIRST
PERIOD OF THE ZONE TEXT PRODUCT TO MENTION ONLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR EACH COUNTY IN THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK OVERALL SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS/JKL TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
STEADILY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING HOURS. BY 1 OR 2Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
745 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
745 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 743 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have has some reports of some very light mixed wintry precip across
the far southwestern portion of the forecast area this evening.
Radar mosaic shows some light returns that continue to shift off to
the southeast. Did issue a short SPS for this activity as there have
been one or two reports of some very light accumulations on
secondary roads. This activity is expected to move out of the area
over the next couple of hours with dry conditions for the remainder
of the night. Updated the forecast to add in a few hours of the
mixed precip this evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 272353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD SO FAR THIS EVENING. SKIES CONTINUE TO
STEADILY CLEAR FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS IN OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE LOWER 30S AND 20S AND EVENTUALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS/JKL TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
STEADILY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING HOURS. BY 1 OR 2Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KPAH 272340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Low VFR and MVFR ceilings centered on the Wabash River Valley should
continue a trend of gradual erosion from the southwest and northeast
through the evening. Current thinking is that KCGI and KPAH will be
mainly clear by early evening, with clearing at KEVV and KOWB around
midnight. Once skies clear, VFR conditions should prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
on Wednesday. As high pressure shifts east of the area, light north
to east winds tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to
near 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KPAH 272340
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Low VFR and MVFR ceilings centered on the Wabash River Valley should
continue a trend of gradual erosion from the southwest and northeast
through the evening. Current thinking is that KCGI and KPAH will be
mainly clear by early evening, with clearing at KEVV and KOWB around
midnight. Once skies clear, VFR conditions should prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
on Wednesday. As high pressure shifts east of the area, light north
to east winds tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to
near 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272250
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
550 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 545 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will build across the region tonight from the north
and shift off to the east tomorrow. Skies have cleared at LEX
already this afternoon and have become VFR at SDF early this
evening. They are expected to clear over the next few hours. MVFR
clouds will hang around at BWG for most of the night before lifting
early tomorrow morning. VFR conditions are expected through the day
tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable tonight, shifting to
southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 272146
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 446 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THERE ARE TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS OF CONCERN TO AFFECT THE REGION DURING
THE PERIOD. ONE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND ANOTHER FROM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE
FIRST SYSTEM. FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM...WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON IT
COMING INTO BEING...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF VARIATION IN ITS TRACK.

THE FIRST SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT WITH A PARENT LOW PASSING WELL TO
OUR NORTH. PRECIP MAY OCCUR IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG THE FRONT...AND IN THE LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME WINTERY PRECIP IN
OUR NW COUNTIES EARLY IN THE DAY THURSDAY...BUT THE PROBABILITY
APPEARS TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION AT THIS POINT. ONCE THE LOW LEVELS
CHILL ENOUGH...ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD GO OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...BUT EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH IS THE BIG QUESTION. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GFS...RESULTING IN ITS SURFACE LOW BEING FURTHER
SOUTH. THE ECMWF SURFACE LOW TRACK IS ENE ACROSS THE JKL FORECAST
AREA...WHILE THE 12Z GFS TAKES IT EAST ACROSS IN AND OH.
INTERESTINGLY...THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH...
WITH THE LOW TRACKING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE CAROLINA. THE TRACK WILL
HAVE A VERY LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP TYPE. THE
NORTHERN TRACK WOULD LEAVE US WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIP...WHILE THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE WOULD BRING
SIGNIFICANT SNOW. HAVE USED A MODEL COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE
ECMWF. THIS GIVES SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AT THE ONSET...WITH A
CHANGE TO RAIN...AND THEN BACK TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS.
HOWEVER...IT IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TEMPS AND PRECIP
TYPE...AND THE SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CEILINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM








000
FXUS63 KJKL 272050
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM







000
FXUS63 KJKL 272050
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
350 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SLOWLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES
FROM THE NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER
WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT A WEAK TROUGH SWINGING
AROUND THE MASSIVE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING THE NEW
ENGLAND AREA TONIGHT WILL SWING THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN. AT
THIS POINT...THINKING THIS WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST IN WV AND VA BUT
MAY RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER SKIRTING NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY.
BESIDES THIS FEATURE...SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT
ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO BOTTOM OUT INTO THE LOWER TEENS...POSSIBLY
SOME SINGLE DIGITS IN THE FAR NORTHERN BLUEGRASS.

FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE UPPER 30S AND EVEN AROUND 40 IN LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE READY TO MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IT SEEMS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
ACHIEVED EARLY IN THE NIGHT AS BY 06Z...WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS DAWN AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE. IN FACT WOULD
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE ON THE REBOUND TOWARDS DAWN. SOME CONCERN
HERE IS WITH ANY FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING VALLEY TEMPERATURES AS THE
RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. THINKING THAT DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF DRY
AIR...AND THE SLOWER APPROACH OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL WARM JUST
ENOUGH WHERE FREEZING PRECIP WONT BE A THREAT AND IF THE COLUMN DOES
WET BULB...SNOW WILL BE THE LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. THOUGH...THIS IS
DEFINITELY A SCENARIO TO MONITOR. SO WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
TOWARDS DAWN WITH THIS PRECIP MOVING IN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272020
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 272020
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Current satellite and observations show dry air advecting in from
the northeast.  Clearing line is working southwestward across the
forecast area.  Despite the clearing over in the Bluegrass,
temperatures have not really spiked up all that much with readings
generally in the lower 30s.  Further west, clearing is working in
and temperatures were in the lower to middle 30s.

In the near term, we expect the clearing line to work slowly to the
south and west through the evening hours.  Temperatures will fall
from the lower-middle 30s down into the mid-upper 20s this evening.
For the overnight period, the forecast challenge will be how far
southwest the clearing line will get.  Clouds are likely to hold
tough across our far southwestern CWA...but eventually clear out
toward dawn.  Winds are expected to be light and with the lower
dewpoints advecting in from the west, fog does not look to be a
concern at this time.  Overnight lows will be the coldest in the
Bluegrass region with readings dropping into the 10-15 degree
range.  Middle teens look likely across the I-65 corridor with the
warmest readings down across the west/southwest with lower 20s.

High pressure will drift across the region during the day on
Wednesday resulting in mostly sunny conditions.   Temperatures will
be slightly below seasonal normals with highs in the upper 30s in
the northeast to the mid 40s in the southwest.  Generally stuck
close to the bias-corrected Canadian GEM raw numbers here which have
verified well in the last few days.

High pressure will drift eastward into southern New England
Wednesday night.  A stronger southwesterly flow will pick up during
the evening and overnight hours.  Some weak isentropic lift will
push in late which will result in an increase in cloudiness early
on.  Some light precipitation will likely develop late tomorrow
night.  Temperatures will likely hit their lows around midnight and
then slowly rise through the overnight hours on the increasing warm
air advection.  Some precipitation that develops early enough may be
a wintry mix...especially across the Bluegrass region.  Overnight
lows look to cool into the lower 30s in the NE with mid-upper 30s
across the central and western areas.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Thursday - Thursday Night...

A PV anomaly and it associated surface low will slide across the
lower Great Lakes on Thursday, swinging light precipitation and a
cold front through the area through late Thursday evening. Light
precipitation is expected to be ongoing in the morning and expect
that we might see a race against time in our NE between temperatures
rising above freezing and overrunning precipitation arrival. At this
time, its still looks like there could be potential for a brief and
light wintry mix in that region. Elsewhere, temp profiles look more
favorable for plain rain, although web-bulbs will be close to the
freezing mark so will still have to monitor over the coming forecast
cycles.

Any mix in our NE should change to all rain quickly on Thursday,
with measurable precipitation likely less than a tenth of an inch.
Cold air will move in behind the departing cold front Thursday
evening and try to change some of the lingering precipitation back
over to snow. As the previous forecast mentioned, p-type will be in
question as saturation will struggle to be above -5C. Will continue
to mention a mix changing over from west to east through
evening/overnight.

Expect Thursday to briefly get mild ahead of the front with highs
topping out mostly in the mid and upper 40s. Temps crash Thursday
night with lows finding their way to the 25-30 range.

Friday - Saturday...

Dry conditions return Friday through Saturday as surface high
pressure slides into the area underneath benign NW flow aloft. Highs
on Friday aren`t expected to make it out of the 30s, with some
improvement on Saturday into the upper 30s and low 40s. Lows Friday
night should be quite cool in the 20-25 range. Perhaps a few teens
could appear in our far east.

Saturday Night - Monday Morning...

...Continue to Monitor Potential for Wintry Weather...

Split stream flow will begin to converge over the eastern Plains
Saturday night, with a weakly coupled jet structure somewhere near
our just of the region. This should allow for cyclogenesis somewhere
near our CWA as the jet streams phase and organize deep moisture
over the area. Much like Thursday, will have a situation Saturday
night into Sunday morning where surface temperatures will be close
to freezing with overrunning precipitation winning the saturation
battle. Will start off with a wintry mix over a good portion of the
area Saturday night, however expect a warm sector to develop ahead
of the strengthening surface low, given the recent north trends. At
some point, expect mostly rain to take over, with our north possibly
holding onto a mix. The surface low then passes late Sunday
afternoon into the evening with cold air then wrapping back into our
area. This scenario would bring a change over back to all snow
through Sunday night, where much more robust moisture is likely to
be present.

The above scenario would play out, give a solution similar to the
27/12Z ECMWF. There are still plenty of available solutions that
could end up resulting in mostly snow or mostly rain. Likely won`t
be able to gain much more confidence on this potential wintery
precipitation until after our Thursday system. In other words,
confidence is low in saying anything more than there is a healthy
storm coming and all p-types are on the table at this point.

We would likely dry out through Monday with colder temps and some
sort of dry northwest flow taking over.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KPAH 271903
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
103 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problemmatic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Stubborn mainly MVFR decks remain over the bulk of the FA along/east
of the Mississippi this pm, even as high pressure starts to work
in from the west with its drier air intrusion. As this transition
gradually occurs, we`ll see KCGI and KPAH clear this evening,
while KOWB and KEVV may take well into the night. Tmrw sees winds
try to turn around again later in the planning period, with selys
developing and some high clouds increasing in advance of a
developing system upstream.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 271903
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
103 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problemmatic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Stubborn mainly MVFR decks remain over the bulk of the FA along/east
of the Mississippi this pm, even as high pressure starts to work
in from the west with its drier air intrusion. As this transition
gradually occurs, we`ll see KCGI and KPAH clear this evening,
while KOWB and KEVV may take well into the night. Tmrw sees winds
try to turn around again later in the planning period, with selys
developing and some high clouds increasing in advance of a
developing system upstream.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271901
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA
OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT
DIVED SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER FOR THIS AND HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS.
DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY AS THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271901
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA
OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT
DIVED SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER FOR THIS AND HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS.
DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY AS THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271901
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA
OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT
DIVED SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER FOR THIS AND HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS.
DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY AS THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271901
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 201 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES HAVE BEGUN TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE AREA
OF CLOUD COVER SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT
DIVED SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED CLOUD
COVER FOR THIS AND HAVE TAKEN OUT THE MENTION OF FLURRIES FOR THIS.
DID ADJUST THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY AS THE CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271755
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...
WITH CLEAR SKIES BEING REPORTED AT THE SYM/SJS TAF SITES. IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR CWA...EXPECT CIELINGS TO
GRADUALLY LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM MVFR TO VFR THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. BY 23Z... ALL TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS. WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JVM






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1203 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1202 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Cloudy skies are expected to continue across the terminals this
afternoon.  The worst ceiling conditions will be down at KBWG where
IFR conditions will be seen.  However, ceilings are expected to lift
through the afternoon hours with MVFR conditions returning around
27/20-21Z.  Up at KSDF, visibilities continue to improve and should
remain VFR through the afternoon.  Ceilings will start off as MVFR
but should reach VFR levels around 27/19-21Z. KLEX looks to remain
VFR throughout the period.  Some cloudiness will persist through the
early part of the period, but clearing to the north of the terminal
will move in around 27/19-20Z.

For tonight, VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX.  However,
some low cloudiness look to stay in place at KBWG where MVFR
ceilings look to persist into the late evening hours.  Winds are
expected to remain light and variable. However, overall boundary
layer winds look to remain elevated to prevent fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEXT BATCH...AND LIKELY LAST ONE...
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ONES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE JKL/SYM/SJS TAF SITES.
HAVE UPDATED THESE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THEIR CURRENT IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AND THEN VFR
LIKELY BY 17Z. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR TONIGHT DECIDED
TO ADD SOME IFR STRATUS IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEXT BATCH...AND LIKELY LAST ONE...
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ONES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE JKL/SYM/SJS TAF SITES.
HAVE UPDATED THESE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THEIR CURRENT IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AND THEN VFR
LIKELY BY 17Z. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR TONIGHT DECIDED
TO ADD SOME IFR STRATUS IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEXT BATCH...AND LIKELY LAST ONE...
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ONES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE JKL/SYM/SJS TAF SITES.
HAVE UPDATED THESE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THEIR CURRENT IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AND THEN VFR
LIKELY BY 17Z. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR TONIGHT DECIDED
TO ADD SOME IFR STRATUS IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND A FEW
FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE DISSIPATED AND THE
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DWINDLED SIGNIFICANTLY. STILL CAN RULE OUT A
SLIGHT VISIBILITY REDUCTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND REMOVED SNOW SHOWER WORDING BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLURRIES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE ISSUED A NEW ZFP FOR THESE CHANGES BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEXT BATCH...AND LIKELY LAST ONE...
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ONES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE JKL/SYM/SJS TAF SITES.
HAVE UPDATED THESE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THEIR CURRENT IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AND THEN VFR
LIKELY BY 17Z. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR TONIGHT DECIDED
TO ADD SOME IFR STRATUS IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Freezing drizzle and flurries have been showing signs of dissipating
over the last hour or two and this trend is expected to continue.
Terminals should only have to deal with the very light wintry mix
for the first one to three hours of the TAF period.  After that,
ceilings will gradually improve, becoming VFR at SDF and LEX by mid
day and BWG by this evening.  High pressure sliding by to our north
will give us clear skies tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Freezing drizzle and flurries have been showing signs of dissipating
over the last hour or two and this trend is expected to continue.
Terminals should only have to deal with the very light wintry mix
for the first one to three hours of the TAF period.  After that,
ceilings will gradually improve, becoming VFR at SDF and LEX by mid
day and BWG by this evening.  High pressure sliding by to our north
will give us clear skies tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Freezing drizzle and flurries have been showing signs of dissipating
over the last hour or two and this trend is expected to continue.
Terminals should only have to deal with the very light wintry mix
for the first one to three hours of the TAF period.  After that,
ceilings will gradually improve, becoming VFR at SDF and LEX by mid
day and BWG by this evening.  High pressure sliding by to our north
will give us clear skies tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1020 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Morning satellite imagery indicates mostly cloudy skies across the
forecast area this morning.  Some breaks in the clouds were noted
over our far SW CWA and our far NE CWA.  Expect the cloudiness
upstream to keep things mostly cloudy into the early afternoon
hours, before clouds start to mixout this evening and into the
overnight hours.  NWS and KY Mesonet observations show temperatures
in the lower-mid 20s in the NE with upper 20s to the lower 30s out
in the central and SW CWA.  With more cloud cover expected, not
anticipating much in the way of a temperature rise today with
readings staying in the upper 20s to around 30 in the NE with
lower-middle 30s elsewhere.

Precipitation this morning has continued to wind down as well with
little in the way of reflectivity from other radars.  We could still
have a few pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but they will
likely be very few and far between.  As a result, the Traveler`s
Advisory has been allowed to expire.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Freezing drizzle and flurries have been showing signs of dissipating
over the last hour or two and this trend is expected to continue.
Terminals should only have to deal with the very light wintry mix
for the first one to three hours of the TAF period.  After that,
ceilings will gradually improve, becoming VFR at SDF and LEX by mid
day and BWG by this evening.  High pressure sliding by to our north
will give us clear skies tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271225 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEXT BATCH...AND LIKELY LAST ONE...
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ONES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE JKL/SYM/SJS TAF SITES.
HAVE UPDATED THESE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THEIR CURRENT IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AND THEN VFR
LIKELY BY 17Z. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR TONIGHT DECIDED
TO ADD SOME IFR STRATUS IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271225 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A NEW SNOW BAND DEVELOPED OVER THE BLUEGRASS AREA AND HAS NOW SLIPPED
SOUTHEAST INTO OUR CWA RIDING JUST A TAD NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE. ONLY BELATEDLY DID THE HRRR CATCH ON TO THIS LATEST BAND...
THOUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE SNOW
MOVEMENT AND ADJUSTED THE LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS. ALSO FINE TUNED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 705 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE NEXT BATCH...AND LIKELY LAST ONE...
LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER
ONES WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING THE JKL/SYM/SJS TAF SITES.
HAVE UPDATED THESE WITH A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR AND IFR CIGS AND MVFR
VIS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE THEIR CURRENT IFR CIGS IMPROVE TO MVFR SHORTLY AND THEN VFR
LIKELY BY 17Z. LOOKING AT THE TIME HEIGHT SERIES FOR TONIGHT DECIDED
TO ADD SOME IFR STRATUS IN THE EASTERN TAF SITES IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

A 500 mb vorticity lobe was racing southward in very strong
northerly flow aloft on the back side of the major noreaster. This
feature was producing some light freezing rain or mixed precip
from kevv and kowb northward as of 08z. The precip will end by 12z
per radar and model data output. Radar returns have been weakening
the past couple hours, so there does not appear to be a need for
an sps product.

The main concern for today is cloud cover and its effect on temps.
Satellite and surface reports show overcast skies across the
entire state of Indiana and most of Illinois. Northerly flow
should tend to hold this overcast over sw Indiana/se
Illinois/Pennyrile of west KY most of today. This will limit temp
rises to just 5 to 8 degrees. Further west, skies are clear across
much of se Missouri early this morning. There should be a good
deal of sun today in the kpof area, where 850 mb temps will be
above freezing. Therefore, a rather strong temp gradient is
expected from west to east this afternoon.

A gradual clearing trend is expected across the entire region
tonight as deep layer ridging builds east in the wake of the
noreaster. Low temps will be in the 20s.

On Wednesday, the deep layer ridge will build across the Ohio
Valley. This should result in plenty of sun and somewhat milder
temps.

A cold front will move southeast across Missouri Wednesday night
and the Lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. The forecast models are
mainly dry with the frontal passage until it reaches our area. The
00z ecmwf develops light rain along the front over se Missouri Wed
night. The gfs/sref/nam delay the development of precip until the
front crosses the Mississippi River. Even then, most of the precip
is east of southern IL and far west KY. Will continue with small
pops with this system.

Thursday night should see clearing skies and a little colder air,
with lows around 30. The high pressure system in the wake of the
front will be relatively weak.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will result in dry and seasonal weather Friday into
Friday night. Models for 12z Saturday have an upper low over the
SW U.S. that partially consolidates with the dominant northern
branch by 12z Sunday. Prior model runs of the past few days showed
more of a NW flow influence across our area, with precip
probabilities more uncertain. However the trend is wetter, as the
models show abundant moisture streaming ENE and into the area late
Saturday through Saturday night. The aforementioned low should
cutoff over Baja. Meanwhile an upper trof is forecast move from the
Plains and across the area Sunday/Sunday night. Raised PoPs ahead of
this feature, especially for Saturday night into Sunday. As far as
precip type, the 00z ECMWF has trended milder, and the 00z GFS is
mild. Kept R-S- mention northern areas, but just rain south for
now. On the backside of the system Sunday night, will indicate a
small chance of light snow, then return dry weather Monday as the
upper system and associated surface low head off to the NE U.S.
Temps were a blend of MOS and previous numbers, except for Saturday
night into Sunday. In that time frame more weight was given to the
base model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Satellite imagery shows that skies cleared out over a large portion
of our region overnight. The exception was in the kevv/kowb area,
where cigs fell below 5 hundred feet. With daytime heating, expect
cigs to start rising by mid-morning, reaching mvfr thresholds by
late morning. At kpah/kcgi, a stratocumulus deck should develop
gradually this morning, with mvfr cigs likely by midday. At all
sites, skies will clear out tonight. The timing should be early at
night in the kcgi/kpah areas, and possibly well after midnight in
the kevv/kowb areas.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
530 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

A 500 mb vorticity lobe was racing southward in very strong
northerly flow aloft on the back side of the major noreaster. This
feature was producing some light freezing rain or mixed precip
from kevv and kowb northward as of 08z. The precip will end by 12z
per radar and model data output. Radar returns have been weakening
the past couple hours, so there does not appear to be a need for
an sps product.

The main concern for today is cloud cover and its effect on temps.
Satellite and surface reports show overcast skies across the
entire state of Indiana and most of Illinois. Northerly flow
should tend to hold this overcast over sw Indiana/se
Illinois/Pennyrile of west KY most of today. This will limit temp
rises to just 5 to 8 degrees. Further west, skies are clear across
much of se Missouri early this morning. There should be a good
deal of sun today in the kpof area, where 850 mb temps will be
above freezing. Therefore, a rather strong temp gradient is
expected from west to east this afternoon.

A gradual clearing trend is expected across the entire region
tonight as deep layer ridging builds east in the wake of the
noreaster. Low temps will be in the 20s.

On Wednesday, the deep layer ridge will build across the Ohio
Valley. This should result in plenty of sun and somewhat milder
temps.

A cold front will move southeast across Missouri Wednesday night
and the Lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. The forecast models are
mainly dry with the frontal passage until it reaches our area. The
00z ecmwf develops light rain along the front over se Missouri Wed
night. The gfs/sref/nam delay the development of precip until the
front crosses the Mississippi River. Even then, most of the precip
is east of southern IL and far west KY. Will continue with small
pops with this system.

Thursday night should see clearing skies and a little colder air,
with lows around 30. The high pressure system in the wake of the
front will be relatively weak.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will result in dry and seasonal weather Friday into
Friday night. Models for 12z Saturday have an upper low over the
SW U.S. that partially consolidates with the dominant northern
branch by 12z Sunday. Prior model runs of the past few days showed
more of a NW flow influence across our area, with precip
probabilities more uncertain. However the trend is wetter, as the
models show abundant moisture streaming ENE and into the area late
Saturday through Saturday night. The aforementioned low should
cutoff over Baja. Meanwhile an upper trof is forecast move from the
Plains and across the area Sunday/Sunday night. Raised PoPs ahead of
this feature, especially for Saturday night into Sunday. As far as
precip type, the 00z ECMWF has trended milder, and the 00z GFS is
mild. Kept R-S- mention northern areas, but just rain south for
now. On the backside of the system Sunday night, will indicate a
small chance of light snow, then return dry weather Monday as the
upper system and associated surface low head off to the NE U.S.
Temps were a blend of MOS and previous numbers, except for Saturday
night into Sunday. In that time frame more weight was given to the
base model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Satellite imagery shows that skies cleared out over a large portion
of our region overnight. The exception was in the kevv/kowb area,
where cigs fell below 5 hundred feet. With daytime heating, expect
cigs to start rising by mid-morning, reaching mvfr thresholds by
late morning. At kpah/kcgi, a stratocumulus deck should develop
gradually this morning, with mvfr cigs likely by midday. At all
sites, skies will clear out tonight. The timing should be early at
night in the kcgi/kpah areas, and possibly well after midnight in
the kevv/kowb areas.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KLMK 271117
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Freezing drizzle and flurries have been showing signs of dissipating
over the last hour or two and this trend is expected to continue.
Terminals should only have to deal with the very light wintry mix
for the first one to three hours of the TAF period.  After that,
ceilings will gradually improve, becoming VFR at SDF and LEX by mid
day and BWG by this evening.  High pressure sliding by to our north
will give us clear skies tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 271117
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 617 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Freezing drizzle and flurries have been showing signs of dissipating
over the last hour or two and this trend is expected to continue.
Terminals should only have to deal with the very light wintry mix
for the first one to three hours of the TAF period.  After that,
ceilings will gradually improve, becoming VFR at SDF and LEX by mid
day and BWG by this evening.  High pressure sliding by to our north
will give us clear skies tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST
WITH SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. EYES TURN
QUICKLY TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST THAT IS
FORECAST TO PROGRESS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW WILL BE THE DRIVER FOR CHANCES OF PRECIP
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF
PRECIP INCREASING AS WE MOVE TOWARD DAYLIGHT ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIP
WILL BRING A CHANCES OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN LATE MORNING INTO THURSDAY AS WARMER AIR MAKES
ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN THE SOUNDS AS DRYER
AIR IS SEEN IN THE UPPER LEVEL LEADING TO LESS ICE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOW DEEPENING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST US. HERE WE SWITCH TO WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND THEREFORE
HAVE KEPT SOME POPS ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS POINT WOULD THINK
LITTLE TO ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH BEST CHANCES
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AND HIGH PRESSURE TO DROP
SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS WILL USHER IN GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS FOR FRIDAY. THE QUESTION REMAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AS TO HOW
MUCH THE TEMPS BOTTOM OUT. RIGHT NOW WOULD SEEM LIKE BEST CHANCES FOR
DECOUPLING WOULD BE ACROSS THE NORTH AND FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. DID INTRODUCE SOME TEENS TO BETTER MATCH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
AFTER THIS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH RETURN FLOW SATURDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY ABLE TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST US
AND PLAINS STATES. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL EVENTUALLY GET PICK UP BY
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND PROGRESS EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. WE DO INTRODUCE SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THIS MIXING WITH SNOW AND RAIN
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG AND
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS RAIN WILL
ONCE AGAIN TRANSITION TO MIX AND SNOW SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THIS LOW. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THIS SURFACE LOW
AND BEST QPF AHEAD OF COLDER AIR WOULD THINK THAT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIGHT IN TERMS OF ANY SNOW WE ARE ABLE TO GET. KEEP IN MIND THIS
IS STILL IN THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL
HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST WITH SOME NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT ABOVE FREEZING
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270908
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

A 500 mb vorticity lobe was racing southward in very strong
northerly flow aloft on the back side of the major noreaster. This
feature was producing some light freezing rain or mixed precip
from kevv and kowb northward as of 08z. The precip will end by 12z
per radar and model data output. Radar returns have been weakening
the past couple hours, so there does not appear to be a need for
an sps product.

The main concern for today is cloud cover and its effect on temps.
Satellite and surface reports show overcast skies across the
entire state of Indiana and most of Illinois. Northerly flow
should tend to hold this overcast over sw Indiana/se
Illinois/Pennyrile of west KY most of today. This will limit temp
rises to just 5 to 8 degrees. Further west, skies are clear across
much of se Missouri early this morning. There should be a good
deal of sun today in the kpof area, where 850 mb temps will be
above freezing. Therefore, a rather strong temp gradient is
expected from west to east this afternoon.

A gradual clearing trend is expected across the entire region
tonight as deep layer ridging builds east in the wake of the
noreaster. Low temps will be in the 20s.

On Wednesday, the deep layer ridge will build across the Ohio
Valley. This should result in plenty of sun and somewhat milder
temps.

A cold front will move southeast across Missouri Wednesday night
and the Lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. The forecast models are
mainly dry with the frontal passage until it reaches our area. The
00z ecmwf develops light rain along the front over se Missouri Wed
night. The gfs/sref/nam delay the development of precip until the
front crosses the Mississippi River. Even then, most of the precip
is east of southern IL and far west KY. Will continue with small
pops with this system.

Thursday night should see clearing skies and a little colder air,
with lows around 30. The high pressure system in the wake of the
front will be relatively weak.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will result in dry and seasonal weather Friday into
Friday night. Models for 12z Saturday have an upper low over the
SW U.S. that partially consolidates with the dominant northern
branch by 12z Sunday. Prior model runs of the past few days showed
more of a NW flow influence across our area, with precip
probabilities more uncertain. However the trend is wetter, as the
models show abundant moisture streaming ENE and into the area late
Saturday through Saturday night. The aforementioned low should
cutoff over Baja. Meanwhile an upper trof is forecast move from the
Plains and across the area Sunday/Sunday night. Raised PoPs ahead of
this feature, especially for Saturday night into Sunday. As far as
precip type, the 00z ECMWF has trended milder, and the 00z GFS is
mild. Kept R-S- mention northern areas, but just rain south for
now. On the backside of the system Sunday night, will indicate a
small chance of light snow, then return dry weather Monday as the
upper system and associated surface low head off to the NE U.S.
Temps were a blend of MOS and previous numbers, except for Saturday
night into Sunday. In that time frame more weight was given to the
base model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Biggest challenge for the next 24 hours is cloud cover and
ceilings due to an incoming weather system. There are some returns
showing up on radar in the KEVV/KOWB areas, but there have been no
reports of precipitation thus far, but vsbys are down to MVFR. So
will leave the sites precipitation free for now but maintain the
mention of MVFR vsbys and maybe a mention of some flurries later
at KOWB. MVFR cigs look to be the mainstay the remainder of the night
in these areas. Elsewhere, at KCGI/KPAH, cigs are VFR for now.
There is a chance they could drop down close to MVFR given the
reports upstream. Cigs are expected to either lift to VFR or close
to it...or scatter out altogether by the end of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...CW





000
FXUS63 KPAH 270908
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

A 500 mb vorticity lobe was racing southward in very strong
northerly flow aloft on the back side of the major noreaster. This
feature was producing some light freezing rain or mixed precip
from kevv and kowb northward as of 08z. The precip will end by 12z
per radar and model data output. Radar returns have been weakening
the past couple hours, so there does not appear to be a need for
an sps product.

The main concern for today is cloud cover and its effect on temps.
Satellite and surface reports show overcast skies across the
entire state of Indiana and most of Illinois. Northerly flow
should tend to hold this overcast over sw Indiana/se
Illinois/Pennyrile of west KY most of today. This will limit temp
rises to just 5 to 8 degrees. Further west, skies are clear across
much of se Missouri early this morning. There should be a good
deal of sun today in the kpof area, where 850 mb temps will be
above freezing. Therefore, a rather strong temp gradient is
expected from west to east this afternoon.

A gradual clearing trend is expected across the entire region
tonight as deep layer ridging builds east in the wake of the
noreaster. Low temps will be in the 20s.

On Wednesday, the deep layer ridge will build across the Ohio
Valley. This should result in plenty of sun and somewhat milder
temps.

A cold front will move southeast across Missouri Wednesday night
and the Lower Ohio Valley on Thursday. The forecast models are
mainly dry with the frontal passage until it reaches our area. The
00z ecmwf develops light rain along the front over se Missouri Wed
night. The gfs/sref/nam delay the development of precip until the
front crosses the Mississippi River. Even then, most of the precip
is east of southern IL and far west KY. Will continue with small
pops with this system.

Thursday night should see clearing skies and a little colder air,
with lows around 30. The high pressure system in the wake of the
front will be relatively weak.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)...
Issued at 308 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

High pressure will result in dry and seasonal weather Friday into
Friday night. Models for 12z Saturday have an upper low over the
SW U.S. that partially consolidates with the dominant northern
branch by 12z Sunday. Prior model runs of the past few days showed
more of a NW flow influence across our area, with precip
probabilities more uncertain. However the trend is wetter, as the
models show abundant moisture streaming ENE and into the area late
Saturday through Saturday night. The aforementioned low should
cutoff over Baja. Meanwhile an upper trof is forecast move from the
Plains and across the area Sunday/Sunday night. Raised PoPs ahead of
this feature, especially for Saturday night into Sunday. As far as
precip type, the 00z ECMWF has trended milder, and the 00z GFS is
mild. Kept R-S- mention northern areas, but just rain south for
now. On the backside of the system Sunday night, will indicate a
small chance of light snow, then return dry weather Monday as the
upper system and associated surface low head off to the NE U.S.
Temps were a blend of MOS and previous numbers, except for Saturday
night into Sunday. In that time frame more weight was given to the
base model output.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Biggest challenge for the next 24 hours is cloud cover and
ceilings due to an incoming weather system. There are some returns
showing up on radar in the KEVV/KOWB areas, but there have been no
reports of precipitation thus far, but vsbys are down to MVFR. So
will leave the sites precipitation free for now but maintain the
mention of MVFR vsbys and maybe a mention of some flurries later
at KOWB. MVFR cigs look to be the mainstay the remainder of the night
in these areas. Elsewhere, at KCGI/KPAH, cigs are VFR for now.
There is a chance they could drop down close to MVFR given the
reports upstream. Cigs are expected to either lift to VFR or close
to it...or scatter out altogether by the end of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...CW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270835 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WHILE LOCALLY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS RATHER RELAXED AND
THIS IS LIMITING THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT OF THIS NIGHT/S SNOW THREAT.
THE MAIN BANDS OF SNOW ARE BEING PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A SFC TROUGH
AXIS SPLITTING THE STATE AND A STREAM OF MID LEVEL ENERGY RUNNING
NORTH NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ON RADAR...THIS BAND LINES UP WELL WITH THIS
ENERGY STREAM AND IS ALSO ABLE TO TAP INTO EXTRA MOISTURE FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
WITH MOST SITES REPORTING SNOW SEEING 4SM OR BETTER VIS...THOUGH IT
IS LIKELY THAT UNDER THE HIGHEST RADAR RETURNS VIS IS LESS THAN 2
MILES. FOR THESE LOCATIONS...A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHILE MOST OTHER PLACES WILL SEE JUST A
THICK DUSTING OR LESS. AN SPS IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AND IT WILL BE
CONTINUED THROUGH DAWN AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR FOR GOOD MEASURE.
TEMPERATURES...MEANWHILE ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE AREA
WITH DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR SO LOWER AND WINDS LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AS A CLOSED LOW DEEPENS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A STREAM OF ENERGY FLOWS NNW TO SSE OVER KENTUCKY AND INTO THE
BROADER EAST COAST TROUGH TODAY. THIS FLOW WILL BE NUDGED EAST BY A
MODERATELY STRONG RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATER TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY A DEVELOPING
TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
FORECAST AND A BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BATCH OF EARLY MORNING SNOW SHOWERS
TARGETING MAINLY THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW
FLURRIES WILL THEN LINGER INTO EARLY AFTERNOON FOR FAR SOUTHEAST
PARTS OF THE CWA BEFORE ALSO COMING TO AN END BY EARLY EVENING AS THE
CLOUDS ATTEMPT TO CLEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH SOME CONTINUED CAA FROM
THE EAST COAST STORM...WILL MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH...
A BATCH OF LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND HUG OUR EASTERN
ZONES INTO DAWN WEDNESDAY...WHICH MAY SPARE THESE AREAS THE COLDEST
TEMPS. THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR A
POTENTIAL OF SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE STRATUS GETS THICK
ENOUGH. FOR NOW...THOUGH...IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE. OTHERWISE...THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER NORTHERN PASSING SFC LOW WILL HELP TO WARM THE AREA UP ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 30S NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 40S SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO MOVE IN BY
AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST LIMITING SUNSHINE ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS
BREAK UP.

USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR TEMPERATURES...
DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PLUGGING IN THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS FOR
POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A COMBINATION OF THE WETTER MAV AND DRIER
MET TODAY WHILE AGREED WITH THE LOW POPS FROM ALL GUIDANCE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270817
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270817
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will push through the region
early this morning, with little more than a few flurries and a few
patches of very light freezing drizzle left over after the sun
rises.  Clouds will persist through much of the morning, but should
begin to break up this afternoon as drier air moves in.  Though
temperatures will be in the upper 20s early this morning, helping to
foster slick spots on untreated roadways, we should make it into the
middle and upper 30s most at most locations this afternoon (maybe
only lower 30s in the northern Blue Grass).  Winds will be light
from the north.

High pressure advancing from Chicago to Pittsburgh will provide us
with mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and light winds tonight and
Wednesday.  It will be quite chilly when the sun comes up Wednesday
morning, with readings ranging from 11 to 16 in the Blue Grass to 17
to 22 west of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 310 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

The start of the long term period is expected to feature weak upper
level ridging Wed night across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys while
the east coast trough begins to move offshore. Upstream, we`ll be
watching a quick moving shortwave trough coming out of the Upper
Midwest. At the surface, high pressure likely will be centered along
the spine of the Appalachians.

The 27.00z guidance is in reasonable agreement taking the
aforementioned Upper Midwest shortwave through the lower Great Lakes
Thursday, keeping the local area with southerly flow Wednesday
night. Eventually, saturation and lift will begin to win out and
combined with the dry and sub freezing low levels may allow
precipitation to initially fall as a light wintry mix across
northeast KY before the low level temperatures warm into the upper
30s to low 40s. Overall, the best moisture/lift reside in the
low/mid levels and much of the precipitation should be on the
lighter side. The best timing for rain showers looks to be Thursday
morning to early/mid afternoon. The cold front pushes through the
area Thursday afternoon/evening and colder air begins to filter in
in its wake. We`ll have to watch for a brief changeover to wintry
precipitation on the back edge but this may end up being more of a
drizzle situation as there`s a lack of saturation above 850 mb /-5C/.

Northerly to northeasterly flow will then prevail Thursday night
into Friday as Canadian high pressure builds in from the northwest.
Lingering moisture could be trapped within the low level inversion,
keeping clouds in place Thursday night and into parts of Friday.
Otherwise, plan on lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s and highs
Friday to range from the mid to upper 30s. For Saturday, there`s
good consensus we`ll have weak zonal flow aloft with cool Canadian
high pressure at the surface. Likely to see increasing high clouds
from the west associated with the next storm system. Highs are
forecast to top out in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Potential Wintry Weekend Storm System:

An active upper level flow late in the weekend could bring wintry
precipitation to the Ohio and TN Valleys. Split southern/northern
stream pieces of energy will traverse the central Plains while a
surface low takes shape somewhere along the Gulf coast.

The 27.00z GFS came in much warmer than its previous run thanks to a
stronger and more northwesterly surface low track /through
north-central KY/. This scenario would support an all-liquid event.
Meanwhile, the GEM remained the southern outlier, keeping the
surface low across AL/GA. This solution would result in snow for
most, with rain/snow line closer to the TN border. Finally, the
ECMWF lies in the middle, bringing the surface low through middle TN
and a rain/snow line somewhere across central/northern KY. For now,
leaned toward the ECMWF for a compromise, which blends well with the
previous forecast and neighboring offices.

However, a time trend analysis shows that the deterministic models
are struggling with this system, placing synoptic features all
across the OH/TN Valleys. Precipitation type/timing/intensity
confidence is well below average at this point. Given the
uncertainties, will still advertise the rain/snow mix possibilities
late Saturday through early Monday. Despite the lower confidence,
this system still has the potential to bring winter weather to the
region, so keep updated to the latest forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270631
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
131 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 131 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have seen several reports of freezing drizzle from eastern Illinois
through western and southwestern Indiana, plus the OWB MTR and we`re
experiencing some FZDZ here at LMK.  So, have added some freezing
drizzle to the forecast for the next several hours.  Also expanded
the likely snow PoPs farther east to account for the band of snow
currently stretching from SDF to between IND and HUF.


Issued at 1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A narrow band of slightly more significant snow has set up from
Salem to just west of Indianapolis, and is sliding to the SSE.  Have
upped snowfall amounts ahead of this band, including the Louisville
metro, to around half an inch for the pre-dawn hours.


Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270631
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
131 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 131 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

Have seen several reports of freezing drizzle from eastern Illinois
through western and southwestern Indiana, plus the OWB MTR and we`re
experiencing some FZDZ here at LMK.  So, have added some freezing
drizzle to the forecast for the next several hours.  Also expanded
the likely snow PoPs farther east to account for the band of snow
currently stretching from SDF to between IND and HUF.


Issued at 1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A narrow band of slightly more significant snow has set up from
Salem to just west of Indianapolis, and is sliding to the SSE.  Have
upped snowfall amounts ahead of this band, including the Louisville
metro, to around half an inch for the pre-dawn hours.


Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
100 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

PER RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR/SREF GUIDANCE...THE LIGHT SNOW
BANDS THAT AFFECTED THE FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA EARLIER IN
THE EVENING WILL SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT MORE OF THE BREADTH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT LIKELY NOT
LEAVE MUCH MORE THAN A DUSTING BEHIND IN ANY ONE LOCATION. HOWEVER...
ALREADY COLD ROADS COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SLICK SPOTS INTO DAWN
TUESDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO FINE TUNE POPS/WX AND SNOW
AMOUNTS THROUGH THE MORNING. ALSO TWEAKED THE T AND TD GRIDS BASED
ON THE LATEST OBS/TRENDS/BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE THROUGH DAWN. THESE
UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CRUCIAL CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ON TRACK...FRESHENED THEM UP WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...AS WELL AS THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SHOWING AN EVENTUAL LESSENING AS WE HEADED INTO THE
CURRENT PERIOD. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE SW CWA...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE
BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WE HAD OVER CENTRAL KY EARLIER. THAT
BEING SAID...ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS
WAY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS A NOTICEABLE LACK IN
INITIALIZATION...AND FURTHERMORE IT IS SHOWING UNLIKELY ARTIFACTS AS
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES IN. NOT PUTTING MUCH FAITH INTO THE
HRRR AT THIS POINT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP. THE LATEST NAM12 AND
ECMWF ALSO PICK UP ON THIS SECOND BAND...THOUGH THE ECMWF LIKELY HAS
THE BETTER HANDLE ON QPF TOTALS. THIS WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME QUICK SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
KY AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITIES OVER
OUR CWA CURRENTLY ARE ONLY PRODUCING FLURRIES...GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
REPORTS...DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER OUR SW
COUNTIES...BRINGING IN SNOW POTENTIAL A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO ENDED UP BUMPING UP THE QPF BY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IN THE SW BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...BRINGING SNOW
TOTALS UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OVERNIGHT FOR PULASKI...WAYNE...AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST INGEST OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SNOW IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
EARLIER BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SET UP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION
OF EAST KENTUCKY...BUT THE NEXT BATCH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FIRST WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF AFFECTING
THE LOZ AND JKL TAF SITES. HAVE UPDATED THESE TWO WITH SOME MVFR CIGS
AND VIS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IN OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY REMAIN WITH MVFR OR NEAR
MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES AND AN ODD SNOW SHOWER OR
TWO. HAVE KEPT THE SYM AND SJS WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION DUE TO ALL
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS KEEPING THE BETTER SNOW TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DAWN. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP IN MOST PLACES BY MID MORNING
WITH IMPROVING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Biggest challenge for the next 24 hours is cloud cover and
ceilings due to an incoming weather system. There are some returns
showing up on radar in the KEVV/KOWB areas, but there have been no
reports of precipitation thus far, but vsbys are down to MVFR. So
will leave the sites precipitation free for now but maintain the
mention of MVFR vsbys and maybe a mention of some flurries later
at KOWB. MVFR cigs look to be the mainstay the remainder of the night
in these areas. Elsewhere, at KCGI/KPAH, cigs are VFR for now.
There is a chance they could drop down close to MVFR given the
reports upstream. Cigs are expected to either lift to VFR or close
to it...or scatter out altogether by the end of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Biggest challenge for the next 24 hours is cloud cover and
ceilings due to an incoming weather system. There are some returns
showing up on radar in the KEVV/KOWB areas, but there have been no
reports of precipitation thus far, but vsbys are down to MVFR. So
will leave the sites precipitation free for now but maintain the
mention of MVFR vsbys and maybe a mention of some flurries later
at KOWB. MVFR cigs look to be the mainstay the remainder of the night
in these areas. Elsewhere, at KCGI/KPAH, cigs are VFR for now.
There is a chance they could drop down close to MVFR given the
reports upstream. Cigs are expected to either lift to VFR or close
to it...or scatter out altogether by the end of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Biggest challenge for the next 24 hours is cloud cover and
ceilings due to an incoming weather system. There are some returns
showing up on radar in the KEVV/KOWB areas, but there have been no
reports of precipitation thus far, but vsbys are down to MVFR. So
will leave the sites precipitation free for now but maintain the
mention of MVFR vsbys and maybe a mention of some flurries later
at KOWB. MVFR cigs look to be the mainstay the remainder of the night
in these areas. Elsewhere, at KCGI/KPAH, cigs are VFR for now.
There is a chance they could drop down close to MVFR given the
reports upstream. Cigs are expected to either lift to VFR or close
to it...or scatter out altogether by the end of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Biggest challenge for the next 24 hours is cloud cover and
ceilings due to an incoming weather system. There are some returns
showing up on radar in the KEVV/KOWB areas, but there have been no
reports of precipitation thus far, but vsbys are down to MVFR. So
will leave the sites precipitation free for now but maintain the
mention of MVFR vsbys and maybe a mention of some flurries later
at KOWB. MVFR cigs look to be the mainstay the remainder of the night
in these areas. Elsewhere, at KCGI/KPAH, cigs are VFR for now.
There is a chance they could drop down close to MVFR given the
reports upstream. Cigs are expected to either lift to VFR or close
to it...or scatter out altogether by the end of the day Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270534
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A narrow band of slightly more significant snow has set up from
Salem to just west of Indianapolis, and is sliding to the SSE.  Have
upped snowfall amounts ahead of this band, including the Louisville
metro, to around half an inch for the pre-dawn hours.


Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270534
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A narrow band of slightly more significant snow has set up from
Salem to just west of Indianapolis, and is sliding to the SSE.  Have
upped snowfall amounts ahead of this band, including the Louisville
metro, to around half an inch for the pre-dawn hours.


Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1221 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1221 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1220 AM EST Tue Jan 27 2015

A small disturbance diving to the SSE will bring a brief period of
light snow to the region during the pre-dawn hours.  BWG will be the
most affected by the snow, with SDF on the eastern edge and LEX east
of the main axis.  IFR conditions are most likely at BWG, with
transient IFR ceilings possible at SDF for a couple of hours.

The system should be just south of the airports by the time the sun
comes up.  Low clouds will gradually lift today and clear out
tonight as high pressure enters the region from the north.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270402
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CRUCIAL CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ON TRACK...FRESHENED THEM UP WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...AS WELL AS THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SHOWING AN EVENTUAL LESSENING AS WE HEADED INTO THE
CURRENT PERIOD. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE SW CWA...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE
BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WE HAD OVER CENTRAL KY EARLIER. THAT
BEING SAID...ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS
WAY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS A NOTICEABLE LACK IN
INITIALIZATION...AND FURTHERMORE IT IS SHOWING UNLIKELY ARTIFACTS AS
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES IN. NOT PUTTING MUCH FAITH INTO THE
HRRR AT THIS POINT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP. THE LATEST NAM12 AND
ECMWF ALSO PICK UP ON THIS SECOND BAND...THOUGH THE ECMWF LIKELY HAS
THE BETTER HANDLE ON QPF TOTALS. THIS WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME QUICK SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
KY AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITIES OVER
OUR CWA CURRENTLY ARE ONLY PRODUCING FLURRIES...GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
REPORTS...DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER OUR SW
COUNTIES...BRINGING IN SNOW POTENTIAL A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO ENDED UP BUMPING UP THE QPF BY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IN THE SW BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...BRINGING SNOW
TOTALS UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OVERNIGHT FOR PULASKI...WAYNE...AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST INGEST OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW...MIXED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
TRAVERSING THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE KY
OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KY...AND COULD BEGIN AFFECTING KSME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH
KLOZ SOON TO FOLLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF PRECIP...THE
NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES /KSYM AND KSJS/ MAY MISS OUT ON THE SNOW ALL
TOGETHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ALTERNATE FUEL
REQUIREMENTS AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH VIS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE SAME THRESHOLDS DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT KSME AND
KLOZ. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH A STRONG SURGE OF DRY AIR FALLING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW AND SHORTWAVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AT


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270402
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1102 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

NO CRUCIAL CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE WELL ON TRACK...FRESHENED THEM UP WITH THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...AS WELL AS THE DEW POINTS AND WINDS. FOCUS
CONTINUES TO BE THE SNOW POTENTIAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HRRR HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SNOW EARLIER THIS
EVENING...SHOWING AN EVENTUAL LESSENING AS WE HEADED INTO THE
CURRENT PERIOD. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR FLURRIES ARE
LIKELY ONGOING IN PORTIONS OF THE SW CWA...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE
BREAK IN THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP WE HAD OVER CENTRAL KY EARLIER. THAT
BEING SAID...ANOTHER BAND OF ENHANCED PRECIP IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS
WAY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWARD ACROSS INDIANA. THIS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT INTO THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST HRRR HAS A NOTICEABLE LACK IN
INITIALIZATION...AND FURTHERMORE IT IS SHOWING UNLIKELY ARTIFACTS AS
THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP MOVES IN. NOT PUTTING MUCH FAITH INTO THE
HRRR AT THIS POINT FOR THE INCOMING PRECIP. THE LATEST NAM12 AND
ECMWF ALSO PICK UP ON THIS SECOND BAND...THOUGH THE ECMWF LIKELY HAS
THE BETTER HANDLE ON QPF TOTALS. THIS WILL BE THE THING TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL UPDATES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME QUICK SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
KY AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITIES OVER
OUR CWA CURRENTLY ARE ONLY PRODUCING FLURRIES...GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
REPORTS...DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER OUR SW
COUNTIES...BRINGING IN SNOW POTENTIAL A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO ENDED UP BUMPING UP THE QPF BY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IN THE SW BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...BRINGING SNOW
TOTALS UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OVERNIGHT FOR PULASKI...WAYNE...AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST INGEST OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW...MIXED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
TRAVERSING THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE KY
OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KY...AND COULD BEGIN AFFECTING KSME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH
KLOZ SOON TO FOLLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF PRECIP...THE
NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES /KSYM AND KSJS/ MAY MISS OUT ON THE SNOW ALL
TOGETHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ALTERNATE FUEL
REQUIREMENTS AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH VIS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE SAME THRESHOLDS DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT KSME AND
KLOZ. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH A STRONG SURGE OF DRY AIR FALLING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW AND SHORTWAVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AT


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270252
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
952 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Light snow has moved into the BWG area and will continue off and on
through the overnight hours. Expect light snow to affect SDF late
tonight. There is more uncertainty at LEX, but there may be a few
hours of light snow towards dawn tomorrow.

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through most of the evening
with a chance for IFR conditions into the overnight hours,
particularly at BWG and SDF. Visibilities will drop from time to
time as well in the snow showers. Will keep things more optimistic
at LEX as snow is expected to be lighter there.

Conditions should improve tomorrow morning as the snow moves out and
high pressure builds in. Cloud bases look to begin to rise by
late morning through the early afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270252
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
952 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 951 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Most of the snow from earlier has dissipated with just some very
light returns across portions of central KY and southern IN
remaining. The next disturbance will dive through the northwest flow
overnight. The surface low associated with this is currently over
eastern Iowa. This low will move into western/central KY late
tonight. The 0Z NAM is very similar to the previous runs and brings
a swath of snow into portions of southern IN and west central
Kentucky between 06-12Z. Still think an addition half an inch to an
inch of snow will be possible with this activity, so have kept the
Travelers Advisory. Did expand it a couple of counties to the east
across south central KY based on the latest NAM. Also expanded the
other SPS to cover all our counties. Though confidence is less in
the Bluegrass for any accumulations, if some snow does fall temps
are cold enough a few slick spots could develop on untreated
roadways.

Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Light snow has moved into the BWG area and will continue off and on
through the overnight hours. Expect light snow to affect SDF late
tonight. There is more uncertainty at LEX, but there may be a few
hours of light snow towards dawn tomorrow.

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through most of the evening
with a chance for IFR conditions into the overnight hours,
particularly at BWG and SDF. Visibilities will drop from time to
time as well in the snow showers. Will keep things more optimistic
at LEX as snow is expected to be lighter there.

Conditions should improve tomorrow morning as the snow moves out and
high pressure builds in. Cloud bases look to begin to rise by
late morning through the early afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME QUICK SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
KY AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITIES OVER
OUR CWA CURRENTLY ARE ONLY PRODUCING FLURRIES...GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
REPORTS...DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER OUR SW
COUNTIES...BRINGING IN SNOW POTENTIAL A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO ENDED UP BUMPING UP THE QPF BY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IN THE SW BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...BRINGING SNOW
TOTALS UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OVERNIGHT FOR PULASKI...WAYNE...AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST INGEST OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW...MIXED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
TRAVERSING THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE KY
OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KY...AND COULD BEGIN AFFECTING KSME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH
KLOZ SOON TO FOLLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF PRECIP...THE
NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES /KSYM AND KSJS/ MAY MISS OUT ON THE SNOW ALL
TOGETHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ALTERNATE FUEL
REQUIREMENTS AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH VIS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE SAME THRESHOLDS DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT KSME AND
KLOZ. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH A STRONG SURGE OF DRY AIR FALLING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW AND SHORTWAVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AT
MOST TAF SITES BY 18Z TOMORROW.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

A BAND OF RADAR REFLECTIVITIES IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
SW PORTION OF THE CWA. HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES...WHICH HAVE BEEN
REPORTED TO BE PUTTING DOWN SOME QUICK SNOW IS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL
KY AND MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD. WHILE MOST OF THE REFLECTIVITIES OVER
OUR CWA CURRENTLY ARE ONLY PRODUCING FLURRIES...GIVEN THE UPSTREAM
REPORTS...DID GO AHEAD AND INCREASE POPS OVER OUR SW
COUNTIES...BRINGING IN SNOW POTENTIAL A COUPLE HOURS SOONER THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. ALSO ENDED UP BUMPING UP THE QPF BY A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS IN THE SW BASED ON THE UPSTREAM REPORTS...BRINGING SNOW
TOTALS UP TO ABOUT HALF AN INCH OVERNIGHT FOR PULASKI...WAYNE...AND
MCCREARY COUNTIES. NEAR TERM TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
SHAPE BASED ON THE LATEST INGEST OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 717 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

UPSLOPE FLOW...MIXED WITH A SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS
TRAVERSING THE STATE FROM EAST TO WEST OVERNIGHT...WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF SE KY
OVERNIGHT. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KY...AND COULD BEGIN AFFECTING KSME OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH
KLOZ SOON TO FOLLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION OF PRECIP...THE
NORTHERN MOST TAF SITES /KSYM AND KSJS/ MAY MISS OUT ON THE SNOW ALL
TOGETHER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT. EXPECT CIGS TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN ALTERNATE FUEL
REQUIREMENTS AND IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH VIS EXPECTED
TO DROP TO THE SAME THRESHOLDS DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS AT KSME AND
KLOZ. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON TOMORROW...WITH A STRONG SURGE OF DRY AIR FALLING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING SNOW AND SHORTWAVE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AT
MOST TAF SITES BY 18Z TOMORROW.
&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 262338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Edge of cloud deck is currently between KCGI and KPAH. In
addition, light to moderate snow showers were occurring over
KEVV/KOWB with the showers just ending at KEVV. We will see light
snow showers for much of the evening in these same areas with KOWB
having the better chance. This snowfall may limit vsbys and lower
ceilings from time to time. Elsewhere, we will be dealing with
MFVR cigs for the most part. Cigs may rise up temporarily to VFR but
should remain MVFR for the entire period or be close to it. It is
currently SKC in KCGI but batch of clouds upstream should reach
the site by around 06Z or so and remain in place through the rest
of the TAF period. Winds will gradually become northwest by later
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KPAH 262338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Edge of cloud deck is currently between KCGI and KPAH. In
addition, light to moderate snow showers were occurring over
KEVV/KOWB with the showers just ending at KEVV. We will see light
snow showers for much of the evening in these same areas with KOWB
having the better chance. This snowfall may limit vsbys and lower
ceilings from time to time. Elsewhere, we will be dealing with
MFVR cigs for the most part. Cigs may rise up temporarily to VFR but
should remain MVFR for the entire period or be close to it. It is
currently SKC in KCGI but batch of clouds upstream should reach
the site by around 06Z or so and remain in place through the rest
of the TAF period. Winds will gradually become northwest by later
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KPAH 262338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Edge of cloud deck is currently between KCGI and KPAH. In
addition, light to moderate snow showers were occurring over
KEVV/KOWB with the showers just ending at KEVV. We will see light
snow showers for much of the evening in these same areas with KOWB
having the better chance. This snowfall may limit vsbys and lower
ceilings from time to time. Elsewhere, we will be dealing with
MFVR cigs for the most part. Cigs may rise up temporarily to VFR but
should remain MVFR for the entire period or be close to it. It is
currently SKC in KCGI but batch of clouds upstream should reach
the site by around 06Z or so and remain in place through the rest
of the TAF period. Winds will gradually become northwest by later
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KPAH 262338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Edge of cloud deck is currently between KCGI and KPAH. In
addition, light to moderate snow showers were occurring over
KEVV/KOWB with the showers just ending at KEVV. We will see light
snow showers for much of the evening in these same areas with KOWB
having the better chance. This snowfall may limit vsbys and lower
ceilings from time to time. Elsewhere, we will be dealing with
MFVR cigs for the most part. Cigs may rise up temporarily to VFR but
should remain MVFR for the entire period or be close to it. It is
currently SKC in KCGI but batch of clouds upstream should reach
the site by around 06Z or so and remain in place through the rest
of the TAF period. Winds will gradually become northwest by later
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262336
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Light snow has moved into the BWG area and will continue off and on
through the overnight hours. Expect light snow to affect SDF late
tonight. There is more uncertainty at LEX, but there may be a few
hours of light snow towards dawn tomorrow.

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through most of the evening
with a chance for IFR conditions into the overnight hours,
particularly at BWG and SDF. Visibilities will drop from time to
time as well in the snow showers. Will keep things more optimistic
at LEX as snow is expected to be lighter there.

Conditions should improve tomorrow morning as the snow moves out and
high pressure builds in. Cloud bases look to begin to rise by
late morning through the early afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262336
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
636 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 634 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

The initial area of light to moderate snow that moved in this
afternoon has resulted in a light dusting of snow in portions of
southern IN and west central KY. This activity has become more
showery in nature over the last hour. Hi-res models suggest that
this area of snow showers will continue to diminish over the next
couple of hours. However, some additional light accumulations of a
tenth or two are possible with this activity. In addition, given the
showery nature of the snow, visibilities may drop quickly over
short distances, so travelers should use caution. Still think we
could see another round of snow after midnight as a second wave
drops through the NW flow.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Light snow has moved into the BWG area and will continue off and on
through the overnight hours. Expect light snow to affect SDF late
tonight. There is more uncertainty at LEX, but there may be a few
hours of light snow towards dawn tomorrow.

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through most of the evening
with a chance for IFR conditions into the overnight hours,
particularly at BWG and SDF. Visibilities will drop from time to
time as well in the snow showers. Will keep things more optimistic
at LEX as snow is expected to be lighter there.

Conditions should improve tomorrow morning as the snow moves out and
high pressure builds in. Cloud bases look to begin to rise by
late morning through the early afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262302
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
602 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 558 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Light snow has moved into the BWG area and will continue off and on
through the overnight hours. Expect light snow to affect SDF late
tonight. There is more uncertainty at LEX, but there may be a few
hours of light snow towards dawn tomorrow.

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through most of the evening
with a chance for IFR conditions into the overnight hours,
particularly at BWG and SDF. Visibilities will drop from time to
time as well in the snow showers. Will keep things more optimistic
at LEX as snow is expected to be lighter there.

Conditions should improve tomorrow morning as the snow moves out and
high pressure builds in. Cloud bases look to begin to rise by
late morning through the early afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
427 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WENDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROMT THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
427 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WENDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROMT THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KPAH 262043
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR cigs prevail early, though breaks in the south/west may at
times scatter KCGI/KPAH to a VFR cig. As a clipper comes in from the
north tonight, it could offer MVFR restricted vsbys in light snow
for our northeast terminals (KEVV/KOWB)...or potentially...a
short-lived restriction to IFR cigs (or vsbys). We carry that mainly
as a temporary late night restriction after the pcpn chance wanes.
Marginally improving cigs/vsbys will commence after daybreak, esp as
we head into the pm hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 262043
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
243 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

MVFR cigs prevail early, though breaks in the south/west may at
times scatter KCGI/KPAH to a VFR cig. As a clipper comes in from the
north tonight, it could offer MVFR restricted vsbys in light snow
for our northeast terminals (KEVV/KOWB)...or potentially...a
short-lived restriction to IFR cigs (or vsbys). We carry that mainly
as a temporary late night restriction after the pcpn chance wanes.
Marginally improving cigs/vsbys will commence after daybreak, esp as
we head into the pm hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 262032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 331 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet and its associated frontogenesis. This first wave will initially
spread through this evening with some very light accums possible
mainly west of I-65 into south central KY. Think any light returns
that get too far east will have more trouble overcoming the slightly
drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Expect that there could be a narrow
band closer to an inch from Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY. Do
think enough snow could fall to coat some roadways, especially
untreated ones. So, will issue a Travelers Advisory across out
western CWA where we think the best chance for the slightly enhance
amounts will be. Further east, will go with a regular Special
Weather Statement where less, if any, impacts are anticipated from a
dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a small
area tonight.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262027
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet. This first wave will initially spread through this evening with
some very light accums possible mainly west of I-65 into south
central KY. Think any light returns that get too far east will have
more trouble overcoming the slightly drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Can`t rule out that some localized
spots could see up to 1 inch. Do think enough snow could fall to
coat some roadways, especially untreated ones. So, will issue a
Travelers Advisory across out western CWA where we think the best
chance for the slightly enhance amounts will be. Further east, will
go with a regular Special Weather Statement where less, if any,
impacts are anticipated from a dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an  Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a
small area tonight. Right now most likely areas affected by this
band would be Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY line just before
and during the morning commute.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 262027
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A Round of Light Snow this Evening, and Again Overnight...

Light snow is currently overspreading the Wabash River Valley and
will slide into our CWA this evening. This snow is associated with
1000-700 mb moisture beneath the left exit region of an upper level
jet. This first wave will initially spread through this evening with
some very light accums possible mainly west of I-65 into south
central KY. Think any light returns that get too far east will have
more trouble overcoming the slightly drier air to the east.

A second wave will then quickly drop through the amplified NNW flow
through the pre-dawn hours, with its associated surface reflection
passing just to our west across western KY. Conditions will be most
favorable for light snow during this time, where additional light
accumulations could occur. Overall, think areas west of I-65 could
see around a half an inch of snow, spreading more SE toward Lake
Cumberland in south central KY. Can`t rule out that some localized
spots could see up to 1 inch. Do think enough snow could fall to
coat some roadways, especially untreated ones. So, will issue a
Travelers Advisory across out western CWA where we think the best
chance for the slightly enhance amounts will be. Further east, will
go with a regular Special Weather Statement where less, if any,
impacts are anticipated from a dusting of snow.

Snowfall rates are not expected to be heavy, in fact data supports a
fairly light snow as saturation only goes up to around -8C.
Additionally, there isn`t a whole lot of moisture to work with. So,
the main concern is that any untreated snow covered roads will be
hazardous during the Tuesday morning commute.

As I type this, the 18z data is coming in much more robust with a
narrow 1 to 2 county wide band that would likely support closer to
an  Advisory if it verified. Can`t rule out an upgrade across a
small area tonight. Right now most likely areas affected by this
band would be Huntingburg, IN to Bowling Green, KY line just before
and during the morning commute.

Should be a sharp cutoff between any heavier amounts in our west to
just a dusting east. Will call this line along and east of I-65.

Any lingering snow should quickly diminish by mid morning with
temperatures slowly rising up through the 30s during the day. Temps
will likely stay around freezing across our NE.

Surface high builds in Tuesday night with cold temperatures in the
mid teens to low 20s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 326 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Significant Weather System May Affect The Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Late In The Weekend...

==================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
==================================

The long term period will start off rather dry across the forecast
area as we remain in northwesterly flow aloft.  A large mid-level
gyre will be located across northeastern New England with a deep
trough extending down the eastern coast of the US.  This trough will
lift out by late Wednesday.  A weak and quick moving upper level
wave will swing through the region on Thursday bringing a round of
precipitation to the region.

Late in the extended period, the models are suggestive of an active
split flow pattern setting up across the CONUS.  Within the southern
stream, the models continue to show a strong signal with a potent
mid-level wave moving out of the southwestern US and into southern
Plains by the weekend.  As this occurs, a large surge of arctic air
will be pushing southward into much of the northern US.  The
combination of these two features will set the stage for a large
baroclinic zone to develop from the southern Plains into the
Mid-Atlantic region.  A rather widespread precipitation shield looks
like a distinct possibility as we head into the late weekend.  The
northern edge of this precipitation field may include significant
wintry precipitation.

==================================
Model Trends/Preference/Confidence
==================================

Overall model agreement can be considered relatively good in the
first half of the extended period.  The timing and spatial patterns
of the Thursday clipper system are relatively good in the GFS and
Euro data sets.  The overall strength of the clipper system is
slightly stronger on the model runs.  This may result in slightly
warmer temps on Thursday followed by much colder conditions Thursday
night and into Friday.

For the late weekend storm evolution, the models had the storm late
last week, lost it over the weekend, and now have brought it back. A
typical pattern we`ve seen within the extended period this winter.
The GFS/Euro/GEM all suggest that we`ll see precipitation from late
Saturday night through early Monday as we`ll be within the
aforementioned baroclinic zone.

The devil in the details here will be the low-level thermal
profiles.  The crux of the forecast will depend on how far south the
PV over Hudson Bay will drop.  The further south it drops, the
deeper the penetration of arctic air into the northern US and into
the OH/TN valleys.  The Euro and Canadian are signaling that it will
drop into south-central Quebec while the OP GFS keeps it a bit
further north.  The current runs of the Euro/GEM would argue for
more wintry precipitation while the GFS run would be more plain rain.

Needless to say, nothing is set in stone here and the models will
continue to oscillate on the pattern over the next few days. Given
the the spreads in the model data, have gone closer to the GFS and
Euro Ensembles here.  Confidence on precipitation for the weekend is
moderate, but temperature and p-ptype confidence remains low at this
time.

==================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
==================================

Dry/cold conditions are expected for Wednesday as we wait for the
approach of the clipper system.  Expect precipitation to move in
from the west late Wednesday and early Thursday.  There remains a
concern that precipitation may get in here while surface
temperatures remain at/below freezing. This could result in some
mixed precipitation at onset...especially in the Bluegrass region.
Strong warm air advection should kick in out ahead of the clipper
resulting in rain showers for the day on Thursday.  Colder air will
surge in behind the clipper resulting in precipitation changing back
over to snow before ending...perhaps yielding a minor accumulation
of snow for some areas.  Highs Wednesday will range from the upper
30s in the NE to the lower 40s in the SW.  Overnight lows Wednesday
night will cool into the lower 30s.  Highs on Thursday will be in
the 45-50 degree range, with lows Thursday night cooling back into
the upper 20s.

Dry and seasonal weather is expected for Friday and Saturday as the
upper level pattern becomes more zonal.  Highs should range from the
mid-upper 30s to the lower 40s.

The weather is expected to take a downhill turn by late Saturday
night and through the day on Sunday as precipitation overspreads the
region from the west.  As discussed above, the models are in good
agreement with a widespread band of precipitation extending from the
southern Plains eastward to the Mid-Atlantic states...with the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys right in the middle of things.  Depending on
the depth and extent of the arctic air, a wintry mix of
precipitation looks to be in the cards for our region.  For now,
have left the forecast with a rain/snow mix in the forecast until
the low-level thermal data becomes more clear.  However, we should
mention that the overall synoptic setup for the this period fits the
conceptual model for significant wintry precipitation for the Ohio
Valley.  This will be something to watch closely over the coming
week...stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Will let the Traveler`s Advisory drop off at 10 AM EST since the sun
is up. Some slick spots will linger so continue to use caution while
traveling this morning.

Will shift the focus westward and into the afternoon as another
round of light wintry precipitation drops quickly south out of the
western Great Lakes. Light snow is already dropping south into
northern Illinois and will continue to work toward our area by late
this afternoon and more solidly into the evening and overnight.
Right now best area of focus looks to be along and west of I-65
where light snow around a half an inch can be expected by dawn on
Tuesday.

Think light snow could start an hour or two earlier than expected
because initial mid deck of clouds may "seed" our lower stratocu
deck with ice crystals. Either way, will likely be issuing a Special
Weather Statement to highlight the new area of concern after the
Travler`s Advisory expires. Did not want to do so until then to
avoid confusion.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A few slick spots this morning with additional light snow
accumulations possible tonight into Tuesday...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified
regime, with a western ridge and downstream trough across the east
coast.  This pattern will continue through the short term period,
with a weak system diving through the building trough aloft to
contend with tonight into Tuesday.

The forecast is pretty much panning out as expected early this
morning, as a compact clipper pushes out of the region.  A weak
deformation band has formed just behind the cold front, back enough
into the cold air to bring a very brief shot of snow for locations
across southern IN/north-central KY.  Hi-res guidance shows this
band continuing to trek east through the morning, but never really
getting its act together.  Isentropic analysis from the synoptic
models depict this as well.  Therefore, think this band will likely
only produce a dusting at best across areas east of I-65 this
morning, with most locations seeing nothing more than a brief period
of some flakes flying.

Even with just a dusting, that could be enough to re-wet the
roadways, freezing again as temperatures fall into the 20s this
morning.  The gusty winds should help dry things out, but still
think there will be a few slick spots, especially on elevated and
less-traveled roadways.  Therefore, will continue with the SPS
through the morning hours.  If the snow band picks back up in
intensity, or if we start getting reports of more widespread issues,
this may be upgraded to a Traveler`s Advisory.

Otherwise, clouds will stick around through much of the day today as
moisture remains trapped under a low-level inversion.  With
northwesterly winds and the expected cloud cover, will keep highs
confined to the middle 30s.

Attention will then quickly shift to a weak system, slated to move
in this evening and last through Tuesday morning.  This system
actually looks to come in two parts, with one PV anomaly moving
through late this afternoon into this evening, helping to saturate
the mid/upper levels.  Snow will be hard to come by with this
initial wave, as the low-levels will be quite dry.  However, a
second PV anomaly will dive southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight
into Tuesday morning, this one having a weak surface reflection with
it.  Cross-sections depict the ascent never really gets deep, with
much of the overnight lift confined from the surface up through
about 700mb.  A weak frontogenetical circulation just to the north
of the surface low looks to set up somewhere along and just to the
west of the I-65 corridor.  It is in this region that snowfall
totals could approach a half inch, with a localized inch amount not
completely out of the question.  The main limiting factor to higher
amounts will be a lack of moisture (only a few hundredths of an inch
of QPF) and that the bulk of the lift will be below the DGZ, which
should cut down on ratios.  Timing with this system will be
problematic though, given the light snow looks to be fall just
before and into the morning commute.  Will not issue any product for
this system quite yet given the ongoing snow/black ice potential,
but will pass concerns along to the day shift.

Otherwise, any light snow will come to an end by mid-morning
Tuesday.  Highs will recover into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

High pressure will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing us chilly conditions.  Lows Wednesday morning will range
from the teens in the Blue Grass to the lower 20s west of I-65.

Low pressure advancing eastward from the Plains will arrive in the
vicinity of Chicago by Thursday morning, with a cold front dropping
down to Texas.  This system will bring showers to the region
Thursday (possibly starting as a light rain/snow mix before the sun
comes up).  Warm air will surge northward ahead of the cold front,
but with frontal passage likely occurring here sometime during the
day, it`s tough to say how warm temps will get before fropa. Will
stick with the mid 40s to low 50s we`ve been advertising recently.

Behind the front Thursday night moisture will leave as cold air
comes in, possibly leading to a brief changeover to light snow as
the precipitation ends.

We`ll get a brief respite Friday and Friday night as high pressure
moves through, with seasonable temperatures.

The weekend is a mess as the models grapple with both northern and
southern stream systems, with the OV in between.  Since there will
likely be *something* in the region, feel we should have some sort
of PoP in the forecast.  Since confidence is low, though, will keep
PoPs small for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Will let the Traveler`s Advisory drop off at 10 AM EST since the sun
is up. Some slick spots will linger so continue to use caution while
traveling this morning.

Will shift the focus westward and into the afternoon as another
round of light wintry precipitation drops quickly south out of the
western Great Lakes. Light snow is already dropping south into
northern Illinois and will continue to work toward our area by late
this afternoon and more solidly into the evening and overnight.
Right now best area of focus looks to be along and west of I-65
where light snow around a half an inch can be expected by dawn on
Tuesday.

Think light snow could start an hour or two earlier than expected
because initial mid deck of clouds may "seed" our lower stratocu
deck with ice crystals. Either way, will likely be issuing a Special
Weather Statement to highlight the new area of concern after the
Travler`s Advisory expires. Did not want to do so until then to
avoid confusion.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A few slick spots this morning with additional light snow
accumulations possible tonight into Tuesday...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified
regime, with a western ridge and downstream trough across the east
coast.  This pattern will continue through the short term period,
with a weak system diving through the building trough aloft to
contend with tonight into Tuesday.

The forecast is pretty much panning out as expected early this
morning, as a compact clipper pushes out of the region.  A weak
deformation band has formed just behind the cold front, back enough
into the cold air to bring a very brief shot of snow for locations
across southern IN/north-central KY.  Hi-res guidance shows this
band continuing to trek east through the morning, but never really
getting its act together.  Isentropic analysis from the synoptic
models depict this as well.  Therefore, think this band will likely
only produce a dusting at best across areas east of I-65 this
morning, with most locations seeing nothing more than a brief period
of some flakes flying.

Even with just a dusting, that could be enough to re-wet the
roadways, freezing again as temperatures fall into the 20s this
morning.  The gusty winds should help dry things out, but still
think there will be a few slick spots, especially on elevated and
less-traveled roadways.  Therefore, will continue with the SPS
through the morning hours.  If the snow band picks back up in
intensity, or if we start getting reports of more widespread issues,
this may be upgraded to a Traveler`s Advisory.

Otherwise, clouds will stick around through much of the day today as
moisture remains trapped under a low-level inversion.  With
northwesterly winds and the expected cloud cover, will keep highs
confined to the middle 30s.

Attention will then quickly shift to a weak system, slated to move
in this evening and last through Tuesday morning.  This system
actually looks to come in two parts, with one PV anomaly moving
through late this afternoon into this evening, helping to saturate
the mid/upper levels.  Snow will be hard to come by with this
initial wave, as the low-levels will be quite dry.  However, a
second PV anomaly will dive southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight
into Tuesday morning, this one having a weak surface reflection with
it.  Cross-sections depict the ascent never really gets deep, with
much of the overnight lift confined from the surface up through
about 700mb.  A weak frontogenetical circulation just to the north
of the surface low looks to set up somewhere along and just to the
west of the I-65 corridor.  It is in this region that snowfall
totals could approach a half inch, with a localized inch amount not
completely out of the question.  The main limiting factor to higher
amounts will be a lack of moisture (only a few hundredths of an inch
of QPF) and that the bulk of the lift will be below the DGZ, which
should cut down on ratios.  Timing with this system will be
problematic though, given the light snow looks to be fall just
before and into the morning commute.  Will not issue any product for
this system quite yet given the ongoing snow/black ice potential,
but will pass concerns along to the day shift.

Otherwise, any light snow will come to an end by mid-morning
Tuesday.  Highs will recover into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

High pressure will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing us chilly conditions.  Lows Wednesday morning will range
from the teens in the Blue Grass to the lower 20s west of I-65.

Low pressure advancing eastward from the Plains will arrive in the
vicinity of Chicago by Thursday morning, with a cold front dropping
down to Texas.  This system will bring showers to the region
Thursday (possibly starting as a light rain/snow mix before the sun
comes up).  Warm air will surge northward ahead of the cold front,
but with frontal passage likely occurring here sometime during the
day, it`s tough to say how warm temps will get before fropa. Will
stick with the mid 40s to low 50s we`ve been advertising recently.

Behind the front Thursday night moisture will leave as cold air
comes in, possibly leading to a brief changeover to light snow as
the precipitation ends.

We`ll get a brief respite Friday and Friday night as high pressure
moves through, with seasonable temperatures.

The weekend is a mess as the models grapple with both northern and
southern stream systems, with the OV in between.  Since there will
likely be *something* in the region, feel we should have some sort
of PoP in the forecast.  Since confidence is low, though, will keep
PoPs small for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Will let the Traveler`s Advisory drop off at 10 AM EST since the sun
is up. Some slick spots will linger so continue to use caution while
traveling this morning.

Will shift the focus westward and into the afternoon as another
round of light wintry precipitation drops quickly south out of the
western Great Lakes. Light snow is already dropping south into
northern Illinois and will continue to work toward our area by late
this afternoon and more solidly into the evening and overnight.
Right now best area of focus looks to be along and west of I-65
where light snow around a half an inch can be expected by dawn on
Tuesday.

Think light snow could start an hour or two earlier than expected
because initial mid deck of clouds may "seed" our lower stratocu
deck with ice crystals. Either way, will likely be issuing a Special
Weather Statement to highlight the new area of concern after the
Travler`s Advisory expires. Did not want to do so until then to
avoid confusion.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A few slick spots this morning with additional light snow
accumulations possible tonight into Tuesday...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified
regime, with a western ridge and downstream trough across the east
coast.  This pattern will continue through the short term period,
with a weak system diving through the building trough aloft to
contend with tonight into Tuesday.

The forecast is pretty much panning out as expected early this
morning, as a compact clipper pushes out of the region.  A weak
deformation band has formed just behind the cold front, back enough
into the cold air to bring a very brief shot of snow for locations
across southern IN/north-central KY.  Hi-res guidance shows this
band continuing to trek east through the morning, but never really
getting its act together.  Isentropic analysis from the synoptic
models depict this as well.  Therefore, think this band will likely
only produce a dusting at best across areas east of I-65 this
morning, with most locations seeing nothing more than a brief period
of some flakes flying.

Even with just a dusting, that could be enough to re-wet the
roadways, freezing again as temperatures fall into the 20s this
morning.  The gusty winds should help dry things out, but still
think there will be a few slick spots, especially on elevated and
less-traveled roadways.  Therefore, will continue with the SPS
through the morning hours.  If the snow band picks back up in
intensity, or if we start getting reports of more widespread issues,
this may be upgraded to a Traveler`s Advisory.

Otherwise, clouds will stick around through much of the day today as
moisture remains trapped under a low-level inversion.  With
northwesterly winds and the expected cloud cover, will keep highs
confined to the middle 30s.

Attention will then quickly shift to a weak system, slated to move
in this evening and last through Tuesday morning.  This system
actually looks to come in two parts, with one PV anomaly moving
through late this afternoon into this evening, helping to saturate
the mid/upper levels.  Snow will be hard to come by with this
initial wave, as the low-levels will be quite dry.  However, a
second PV anomaly will dive southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight
into Tuesday morning, this one having a weak surface reflection with
it.  Cross-sections depict the ascent never really gets deep, with
much of the overnight lift confined from the surface up through
about 700mb.  A weak frontogenetical circulation just to the north
of the surface low looks to set up somewhere along and just to the
west of the I-65 corridor.  It is in this region that snowfall
totals could approach a half inch, with a localized inch amount not
completely out of the question.  The main limiting factor to higher
amounts will be a lack of moisture (only a few hundredths of an inch
of QPF) and that the bulk of the lift will be below the DGZ, which
should cut down on ratios.  Timing with this system will be
problematic though, given the light snow looks to be fall just
before and into the morning commute.  Will not issue any product for
this system quite yet given the ongoing snow/black ice potential,
but will pass concerns along to the day shift.

Otherwise, any light snow will come to an end by mid-morning
Tuesday.  Highs will recover into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

High pressure will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing us chilly conditions.  Lows Wednesday morning will range
from the teens in the Blue Grass to the lower 20s west of I-65.

Low pressure advancing eastward from the Plains will arrive in the
vicinity of Chicago by Thursday morning, with a cold front dropping
down to Texas.  This system will bring showers to the region
Thursday (possibly starting as a light rain/snow mix before the sun
comes up).  Warm air will surge northward ahead of the cold front,
but with frontal passage likely occurring here sometime during the
day, it`s tough to say how warm temps will get before fropa. Will
stick with the mid 40s to low 50s we`ve been advertising recently.

Behind the front Thursday night moisture will leave as cold air
comes in, possibly leading to a brief changeover to light snow as
the precipitation ends.

We`ll get a brief respite Friday and Friday night as high pressure
moves through, with seasonable temperatures.

The weekend is a mess as the models grapple with both northern and
southern stream systems, with the OV in between.  Since there will
likely be *something* in the region, feel we should have some sort
of PoP in the forecast.  Since confidence is low, though, will keep
PoPs small for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1236 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Will let the Traveler`s Advisory drop off at 10 AM EST since the sun
is up. Some slick spots will linger so continue to use caution while
traveling this morning.

Will shift the focus westward and into the afternoon as another
round of light wintry precipitation drops quickly south out of the
western Great Lakes. Light snow is already dropping south into
northern Illinois and will continue to work toward our area by late
this afternoon and more solidly into the evening and overnight.
Right now best area of focus looks to be along and west of I-65
where light snow around a half an inch can be expected by dawn on
Tuesday.

Think light snow could start an hour or two earlier than expected
because initial mid deck of clouds may "seed" our lower stratocu
deck with ice crystals. Either way, will likely be issuing a Special
Weather Statement to highlight the new area of concern after the
Travler`s Advisory expires. Did not want to do so until then to
avoid confusion.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

...A few slick spots this morning with additional light snow
accumulations possible tonight into Tuesday...

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified
regime, with a western ridge and downstream trough across the east
coast.  This pattern will continue through the short term period,
with a weak system diving through the building trough aloft to
contend with tonight into Tuesday.

The forecast is pretty much panning out as expected early this
morning, as a compact clipper pushes out of the region.  A weak
deformation band has formed just behind the cold front, back enough
into the cold air to bring a very brief shot of snow for locations
across southern IN/north-central KY.  Hi-res guidance shows this
band continuing to trek east through the morning, but never really
getting its act together.  Isentropic analysis from the synoptic
models depict this as well.  Therefore, think this band will likely
only produce a dusting at best across areas east of I-65 this
morning, with most locations seeing nothing more than a brief period
of some flakes flying.

Even with just a dusting, that could be enough to re-wet the
roadways, freezing again as temperatures fall into the 20s this
morning.  The gusty winds should help dry things out, but still
think there will be a few slick spots, especially on elevated and
less-traveled roadways.  Therefore, will continue with the SPS
through the morning hours.  If the snow band picks back up in
intensity, or if we start getting reports of more widespread issues,
this may be upgraded to a Traveler`s Advisory.

Otherwise, clouds will stick around through much of the day today as
moisture remains trapped under a low-level inversion.  With
northwesterly winds and the expected cloud cover, will keep highs
confined to the middle 30s.

Attention will then quickly shift to a weak system, slated to move
in this evening and last through Tuesday morning.  This system
actually looks to come in two parts, with one PV anomaly moving
through late this afternoon into this evening, helping to saturate
the mid/upper levels.  Snow will be hard to come by with this
initial wave, as the low-levels will be quite dry.  However, a
second PV anomaly will dive southeast into the Ohio Valley tonight
into Tuesday morning, this one having a weak surface reflection with
it.  Cross-sections depict the ascent never really gets deep, with
much of the overnight lift confined from the surface up through
about 700mb.  A weak frontogenetical circulation just to the north
of the surface low looks to set up somewhere along and just to the
west of the I-65 corridor.  It is in this region that snowfall
totals could approach a half inch, with a localized inch amount not
completely out of the question.  The main limiting factor to higher
amounts will be a lack of moisture (only a few hundredths of an inch
of QPF) and that the bulk of the lift will be below the DGZ, which
should cut down on ratios.  Timing with this system will be
problematic though, given the light snow looks to be fall just
before and into the morning commute.  Will not issue any product for
this system quite yet given the ongoing snow/black ice potential,
but will pass concerns along to the day shift.

Otherwise, any light snow will come to an end by mid-morning
Tuesday.  Highs will recover into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

High pressure will cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday,
bringing us chilly conditions.  Lows Wednesday morning will range
from the teens in the Blue Grass to the lower 20s west of I-65.

Low pressure advancing eastward from the Plains will arrive in the
vicinity of Chicago by Thursday morning, with a cold front dropping
down to Texas.  This system will bring showers to the region
Thursday (possibly starting as a light rain/snow mix before the sun
comes up).  Warm air will surge northward ahead of the cold front,
but with frontal passage likely occurring here sometime during the
day, it`s tough to say how warm temps will get before fropa. Will
stick with the mid 40s to low 50s we`ve been advertising recently.

Behind the front Thursday night moisture will leave as cold air
comes in, possibly leading to a brief changeover to light snow as
the precipitation ends.

We`ll get a brief respite Friday and Friday night as high pressure
moves through, with seasonable temperatures.

The weekend is a mess as the models grapple with both northern and
southern stream systems, with the OV in between.  Since there will
likely be *something* in the region, feel we should have some sort
of PoP in the forecast.  Since confidence is low, though, will keep
PoPs small for now.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1235 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2015

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected to prevail for much of this
forecast cycle at SDF/BWG as another clipper moves into the area
this evening.

Other than perhaps a brief period of ceilings coming above
fuel-alternate this afternoon, expect low MVFR ceilings to mostly
prevail, along with some MVFR visibilities at times. Light snow will
start to overspread BWG/SDF this evening with a return to ceilings
below fuel alternate and perhaps into IFR range. Light snow should
taper off by mid morning Tuesday, with gradually improving
conditions in a light N wind.

At LEX, much more uncertainty in ceilings and any snow chances. Will
be more conservative with only very light snow and MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261705 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261705 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

MOST SITES HAVE COME DOWN THIS MORNING TO IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. A
FEW SITES ARE SEEING LOWER VIS DUE TO FOG AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING
ACROSS THOSE SITES. COLDER AIR IS SLOWING MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. OTHERWISE A FEW SITES ARE SEEING GUSTY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS AS WINDS BEGIN SWITCHING WEST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES
TO FILTER INTO EASTERN KY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ







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