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000
FXUS63 KJKL 242025 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WENT TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH
RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT
DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY









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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

Fair weather high pressure will stay in control through the
weekend. Unlike the last high pressure, which came southeast of
Canada, this one will build in from the west and will be quite a
bit milder. Expect warm and pleasant afternoons with highs well
in the 70s to around 80, and overnight lows down in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

High pressure will move off the southeast coast on Monday, then
models show a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region
by 12z Tuesday.  GFS, ECMWF and GEM bring the associated cold front
just northwest of our region by 12z Tuesday.  ECMWF is about 6 hours
faster bringing some precip into our far west/northwest counties
before 12z Tuesday, while GFS/GEM hold off until after 12z, but
models are in much better agreement overall.  Continued with some
small pops for our far west/northwest counties late Monday night,
then high chance pops across the entire PAH forecast area Tuesday.
By 12z Wednesday, models show the front southeast of our region, so
our northwest counties should be dry Tuesday night, with precip
tapering off across the rest of our counties from northwest to
southeast Tuesday night into early Wednesday.  After dry conditions
Wednesday night, models show a weak upper level trof, and some show
a smattering of precip.  Went with some slight chance pops for
showers for now.  Dry conditions are expected for Friday.

With gusty south winds and some sunshine, temperatures will remain
well above normal Monday and Monday night.  A cool down will begin
Tuesday with the clouds and precip and especially Tuesday night into
Wednesday behind the cold front.  Readings for the end of the work
week will be near to slightly below normal.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Low clouds finally made it to the taf sites by 11z. Most cigs are
vfr...but mvfr cigs reached kcgi. The clouds will inhibit any
significant fog formation. Based on the abundance of low clouds
upstream across Missouri and Illinois...it will take some time for
clearing to occur. Expect daytime heating to finally scatter out the
clouds late this morning or early this afternoon. Late tonight...it
is likely that some low clouds or fog will develop in a weak
southwest wind flow of moist air.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST







000
FXUS63 KJKL 241919
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

BASICALLY A TEMP FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SKIES ARE CLEARING OUT BEHIND AN
EXITING MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
TEMPORARILY OVERNIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SATURDAY AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW
SPRINKLES THOUGH WET TOTALLY DRY IN THE ZONES AND GRIDS FOR NOW.
FROM THERE OUR WEATHER REMAINS DRY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR RIVER VALLEYS. INHERITED
SOME EXCELLENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS. NUDGING TO A BLEND OF MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDED VERY MINOR CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE WEATHER STORY AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY
EARLY IN THE WEEK. FOR REFERENCE...RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/27 ARE 83 AT
JACKSON AND 81 AT LONDON. RECORD HIGHS FOR 10/28 ARE 78 AT JACKSON
AND 84 AT LONDON. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN LAKES BY TUESDAY. A
SHEARED COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS KY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY LIMITED AND WILL FOLLOW PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING AND LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT CONTINUE WITH THE FAIRLY HIGH SHOWER CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS FIRST COLD FRONT FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
APPROACH OF A SECOND UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND THEN INTRODUCE THE COLDEST
AIR OF THE SEASON FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW COMING
INTO LINE WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ON THIS IDEA. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE WE
COULD EXPERIENCE A KILLING FREEZE NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH IS JUST
BEYOND THE TIME FRAME OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH
RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT
DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY






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000
FXUS63 KLMK 241911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper vort max is now centered over eastern KY, with our CWA
generally in a subsident regime behind this feature. Most of the
clouds have thinned and scattered, however a few clouds will remain
in the region for the afternoon and evening. Temperatures are
currently in the low and mid 60s, with a few locations likely on
their way to the upper 60s.

Do expect a mostly clear night, however do have potential for some
variable cloudiness at times, especially toward dawn. Will only
mention patchy fog coverage across our eastern and southeastern
zones, closest to the center of the surface high and far enough
removed from the light gradient winds that will pick up toward dawn.
Do expect to have a fairly wide range in low temperatures with the
coolest air across our eastern CWA in the low and mid 40s. Our NW
CWA will be milder around 50 for lows as some low clouds and a light
SW wind should take over toward dawn.

Will see a batch of lower clouds move into the area around sunrise
ahead of a weak frontal boundary that is set to move through later
tomorrow. Moisture looks just deep enough across southern Indiana
that we could squeeze out a sprinkle, however without the presence
of a stronger forcing mechanism would prefer to leave any mention
out for now. Otherwise, expect sky cover to go from mostly cloudy in
the morning, to seeing some breaks in the afternoon, especially in
our west. This will make out temperature forecast a bit tricky as
temperatures will be somewhat dependent on how much sun we see. Will
get an steady warm advective component ahead of the front also so
still feel pretty good about mostly low and mid 70s across the
region. A few NE counties in the Bluegrass may be confined to the
upper 60s.

The frontal boundary passes late tomorrow afternoon into the evening with
little more than a wind shift. Expect a mostly clear night with lows
mostly in the 45-50 range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The long term will feature a fairly active pattern in generally a
meridional flow across the CONUS which looks to become more
amplified toward the end of next week.

Sun/Mon look to be dry with warmer than normal temps as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging rule the region.  Mon (highs in the
lower 80s) will be noticeably warmer than Sun (highs in the 70s) due
to gusty southwest winds in return flow on the back side of the sfc
high pressure.  These winds will advect in unseasonably warm air
which may come close to record high temps on the 27th and record
warm low temps on the 28th.  Here are those records:

               Record Max for Oct 27     Record Warm Low for Oct 28
Louisville        84 (1940)               64 (1991 and previous yrs)
Lexington         87 (1940)               64 (1984)
Bowling Green     87 (1919)               65 (1984)
Frankfort         89 (1940)               61 (1899)

Clouds will be on the increase Tues with a cold front bringing rain
to the region late Tues into Wed.  This front looks to bring a band
of light, slow moving rain with a few rumbles of thunder through the
area mainly Tues night, but extending into Wed morning across south
central KY.  QPF amounts are expected to total less than a quarter
inch from this rainfall.  Temps should still warm solidly into the
mid 70s for highs Tues afternoon and then falling back into the
lower 60s for highs Wed afternoon.

For the end of the week, expect generally a cool pattern to dominate
as ridging builds over the Rockies with troughing over the Midwest
in response to this amplification.  Another light precipitation
chance may accompany an upper level shortwave trough in the
Thurs/Fri time frame.  Some long range models indicate a good cold
shot of air for next weekend (Nov 1 and 2) which may result in a
killing freeze for agricultural interests.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the day. Thin layer
of lower clouds just above the MVFR/VFR threshold are dissipating to
the west of SDF/BWG, so will only mention Few-Sct coverage to start
the period. Expect only light winds, with any noticeable gradient
mainly out of the WSW.

A tricky forecast for tonight at the TAF sites as data and
persistence would suggest a chance for some brief visibility
restrictions toward dawn. However, not confident enough to mention
in the TAFs yet due to uncertainty in some cloud cover both in the
upper levels, and in a potential thin layer of clouds near the
surface. Will mention VFR for now, but potential for MVFR vis or
cigs can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 241810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED IF THERE WERE A
FEW DROPS OR SPRINKLES REACHING THE GROUND IN SPOTS. HOWEVER...
COVERAGE OR THREAT OF SPRINKLES IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN THE UPDATE. TEMPS ARE RUNNING BEHIND EXPECTED LEVELS IN THE EAST
WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS LINERGED A BIT LONGER TODAY. TWEAKED AFTERNOON
HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO...MAINLY IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR
DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DISTURBANCE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
SOME DECENT VIRGA BEING PRODUCED WITHIN SEVERAL BANDS OF ACCAS THAT
ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE AREA. WEATHER GENERALLY LOOKS QUIET THROUGH
THE FOREACAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE OPTIMISTIC WITH
RESPECT FOR FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. OVERALL EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE
RESTRICTED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING AT OUR TERMINALS THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR SO RIGHT AT
DAWN...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH A
SOUTHWEST TENDENCY BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS A BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRIZED IF
THERE WERE A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND FOR GOOD MEASURE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 8KTS AND BECOME WESTERLY JUST BEYOND THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KLMK 241705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Forecast is on track this morning as upper disturbance is pushing
east across the area. Sprinkles that had threatened southern Indiana
this morning have diminished, however ill deal with variable
cloudiness throughout the day. Temperatures look on pace to climb
to the mid and upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the day. Thin layer
of lower clouds just above the MVFR/VFR threshold are dissipating to
the west of SDF/BWG, so will only mention Few-Sct coverage to start
the period. Expect only light winds, with any noticeable gradient
mainly out of the WSW.

A tricky forecast for tonight at the TAF sites as data and
persistence would suggest a chance for some brief visibility
restrictions toward dawn. However, not confident enough to mention
in the TAFs yet due to uncertainty in some cloud cover both in the
upper levels, and in a potential thin layer of clouds near the
surface. Will mention VFR for now, but potential for MVFR vis or
cigs can`t be ruled out.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 241555
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Forecast is on track this morning as upper disturbance is pushing
east across the area. Sprinkles that had threatened southern Indiana
this morning have diminished, however ill deal with variable
cloudiness throughout the day. Temperatures look on pace to climb
to the mid and upper 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Patchy fog has developed across portions of the area early this
morning, but so far has avoided the TAF sites.  Nevertheless, will
still need to account for the possibility of some BR at BWG and LEX
for the first hour after sunrise.

A large shield of clouds coming in from the northwest will spread
across the area today, especially at SDF and LEX where ceilings are
expected, but should remain slightly VFR.

The clouds may clear out this evening before new clouds move in
after midnight, but any ceilings tonight should be VFR so we kept
the TAF simple rather than breaking it up into several lines of VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 241435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR
DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MVFR FOG AT SJS AND ELSEWHERE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. EXPECT FOG TO BE
EVEN LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. APPEARS FOG HAS LIFTED AND/OR
DISSIPATED AT MOST LOCATIONS. MID LEVEL DECK AROUND 14-15K FT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE EAST. MID...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BUT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. MODELS SUGGEST UPSTREAM BAND OF
LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY
TODAY WILL BREAK UP AS IT MOVES THROUGH. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL
MOISTURE TO KEEP AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED HOURLY TEMPS AND TWEAKED SKY COVER JUST A
BIT FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING. ZONES WERE UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MVFR FOG AT SJS AND ELSEWHERE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. EXPECT FOG TO BE
EVEN LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 241155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO
TOUCHED UP THE SKY COVER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE MVFR FOG AT SJS AND ELSEWHERE WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. EXPECT FOG TO BE
EVEN LESS OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT AFTER ANOTHER DAY OF DRYING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KPAH 241135
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last in a series of shortwaves in this northwest flow pattern is
progressing through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
Areas of mid clouds are accompanying this shortwave across our
region this morning. Some patchy fog may form where skies are still
clear through sunrise...mainly in western Kentucky. In the wake of
the shortwave passage...skies will become mainly sunny this
afternoon. Light west to southwest winds combined with the
increasing sunshine will push highs to around 70.

Tonight...low level warm moist advection associated with southwest
winds should result in some increase in low cloudiness. Low temps
will be mainly in the lower 50s.

Over the weekend...a large upper ridge over the Plains will progress
eastward across the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bring
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Most of the model guidance is
warmer than previous runs...especially for Sunday. Highs should
reach 80 across a large portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

Little in the way of cloudiness or wind is expected Saturday night.
Strong radiational cooling will result in a rather chilly start to
Sunday...with lows in the upper 40s in most places. Conditions will
be favorable for ground fog late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Not much change to the long term. Going forecast on track. Just some
timing adjustments. Will use a blend of previous input with the
latest trends seen via the GFS/ECMWF ops and ensemble mean
solutions. General agreement exists overall. Parent h5 system still
forecast to track across the northern tier of states along the
US/Canadian border, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Tue. A
trailing cold front at that time will be approaching our NW CWFA
counties. Tuesday still looks like the day with the best chance of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two as the front weakens and
moves through. Will taper off PoPs from NW to SE Tuesday night, with
small chances of showers limited to our AR/TN border counties
Wednesday. We have no PoPs in for Wednesday night and Thursday. That
may change as the ensembles still show the mean trof position to our
west, with the ops models hinting that another wave may move across
the area Halloween. Will wait for more run to run continuity as
variability continues to exist. Monday dry and unseasonably warm,
then we cool back down with the passage of the front Tuesday. A
blend of existing numbers, HPC and MOS were used for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Low clouds finally made it to the taf sites by 11z. Most cigs are
vfr...but mvfr cigs reached kcgi. The clouds will inhibit any
significant fog formation. Based on the abundance of low clouds
upstream across Missouri and Illinois...it will take some time for
clearing to occur. Expect daytime heating to finally scatter out the
clouds late this morning or early this afternoon. Late tonight...it
is likely that some low clouds or fog will develop in a weak
southwest wind flow of moist air.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN











000
FXUS63 KLMK 241119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 719 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Patchy fog has developed across portions of the area early this
morning, but so far has avoided the TAF sites.  Nevertheless, will
still need to account for the possibility of some BR at BWG and LEX
for the first hour after sunrise.

A large shield of clouds coming in from the northwest will spread
across the area today, especially at SDF and LEX where ceilings are
expected, but should remain slightly VFR.

The clouds may clear out this evening before new clouds move in
after midnight, but any ceilings tonight should be VFR so we kept
the TAF simple rather than breaking it up into several lines of VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KPAH 240801
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The last in a series of shortwaves in this northwest flow pattern is
progressing through the middle Mississippi Valley this morning.
Areas of mid clouds are accompanying this shortwave across our
region this morning. Some patchy fog may form where skies are still
clear through sunrise...mainly in western Kentucky. In the wake of
the shortwave passage...skies will become mainly sunny this
afternoon. Light west to southwest winds combined with the
increasing sunshine will push highs to around 70.

Tonight...low level warm moist advection associated with southwest
winds should result in some increase in low cloudiness. Low temps
will be mainly in the lower 50s.

Over the weekend...a large upper ridge over the Plains will progress
eastward across the Mississippi Valley. This ridge will bring
unseasonably warm and dry conditions. Most of the model guidance is
warmer than previous runs...especially for Sunday. Highs should
reach 80 across a large portion of the forecast area on Sunday.

Little in the way of cloudiness or wind is expected Saturday night.
Strong radiational cooling will result in a rather chilly start to
Sunday...with lows in the upper 40s in most places. Conditions will
be favorable for ground fog late Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Not much change to the long term. Going forecast on track. Just some
timing adjustments. Will use a blend of previous input with the
latest trends seen via the GFS/ECMWF ops and ensemble mean
solutions. General agreement exists overall. Parent h5 system still
forecast to track across the northern tier of states along the
US/Canadian border, reaching the Great Lakes region by 12z Tue. A
trailing cold front at that time will be approaching our NW CWFA
counties. Tuesday still looks like the day with the best chance of
showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two as the front weakens and
moves through. Will taper off PoPs from NW to SE Tuesday night, with
small chances of showers limited to our AR/TN border counties
Wednesday. We have no PoPs in for Wednesday night and Thursday. That
may change as the ensembles still show the mean trof position to our
west, with the ops models hinting that another wave may move across
the area Halloween. Will wait for more run to run continuity as
variability continues to exist. Monday dry and unseasonably warm,
then we cool back down with the passage of the front Tuesday. A
blend of existing numbers, HPC and MOS were used for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Introduced mention of fog into the tafs for the remainder of tonight
into the early morning hours. Large areas of clearing have developed
in the mid level overcast...allowing some fog to form already at a
few sites. Lower clouds based around 4k feet will attempt to
overspread our region from the northwest toward sunrise. This
cloudiness will help mitigate fog potential if it makes it here.
Vsbys may be worse than forecast if these clouds do not arrive by
sunrise. Once fog burns off...vfr conditions are expected for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN









000
FXUS63 KLMK 240707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

An upper level disturbance that slid southeastward from Illinois
into Indiana during the overnight hours will cross Kentucky this
morning and then move off to the southeast this afternoon.  This
feature will be responsible for a fair amount of cloudiness this
morning, and maybe even a sprinkle or two especially in southern
Indiana.  High pressure at the surface stretching from Texas to
Pennsylvania will keep winds light today. Temperatures this
afternoon will peak in the middle and upper 60s.

Tonight will be quiet with partly cloudy skies.  We will get into
some weak return flow as the aforementioned surface high sags to the
southeast and a cool front approaches from the northwest.  Also,
clouds will begin to increase towards Saturday morning, especially
in southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  We should end up with a
sizable temperature difference across the area for lows, with mid
40s to around 50 in the northwest (more clouds, closer to
approaching front) and around 40 in the southeastern valleys (fewer
clouds, closer to the surface high).

On Saturday the cool front will enter the region but will be
weakening as it does so, and will only have shallow low level
moisture associated with it.  Clouds are expected, but not much in
the way of precipitation other than a sprinkle or two.  Right now
will aim for high temperatures in the upper 60s in the Blue Grass
and low to mid 70s elsewhere, though clouds and fropa timing will
have an effect on where we end up.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

The start of the long term period will feature northwest flow aloft
over the Ohio Valley as a ridge amplifies across the Central
Plains.  This regime will turn to more southwesterly then more zonal
flow over the region through the period, making way for a
significant warmup followed by a return to cooler temperatures.

The long term period will start with a weak surface front pushing to
the east of the region Sunday morning.  However, this front will not
get very far to the southeast as an area of low pressure develops
across the Central Plains.  In response, this front will stall and
then begin to lift back to the north during the day on Sunday.
While the bulk of the warmer air will reside just to the west of the
region, the combination of the front sharpening and pushing north
coupled with expected sunshine, should yield temperatures in the
70s, perhaps upper 70s across southern KY.

Monday looks to be a very warm day, perhaps the last 80 degree day
of the year in some locations.  The warm front will push well to the
north, leaving the Ohio Valley fully within the warm sector.  This
seems to be a day where temperatures could overachieve as we will be
have a strong pressure gradient leading to good southwesterly
surface flow.  Additionally, forecast soundings do not show much in
the way of low-level moisture, which should limit any cloud cover to
passing high/mid-level clouds.  Therefore, have bumped temperatures
up a few degrees from the previous forecast, which puts readings in
the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The aforementioned surface low across the Central Plains will deepen
and push into southern Canada on Tuesday in response to an
approaching PV anomaly.  The best synoptic scale ascent will trek
well north of the Ohio Valley with this system, leaving the region
with just the trailing part of the cold front.  Given the amplified
upper-level regime, a deepening cyclone, and the fact that the Ohio
Valley will be on the trailing edge of the surface front, have
leaned on the slower end of guidance with the fropa.  This puts the
best precipitation chances into the region Tuesday night.  Given the
better dynamics passing to the north and still some questions
regarding timing, am a bit hesitant to raise pops too high at this
time range.  Therefore, will limit them to around 60%.

Guidance had disagreed with the evolution of the front as it passed
through the region, but the 24/00Z cycle has come into better
agreement regarding the front stalling across southern KY.  This
stalled front will keep precipitation chances across southern KY
Wednesday into Wednesday night.  With the frontal passage,
temperatures on Wednesday into Thursday will fall back into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Surface ridging over Kentucky will keep SDF and LEX VFR with light
winds through the TAF period.  Similar conditions will be found at
BWG, with the exception of the possibility of some MVFR BR early
this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240655 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. EVEN SO...A FAIR AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVERHEAD
THIS NIGHT AS A CONSEQUENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A HEALTHY POOL OF ENERGY. THESE CLOUDS RUINED...FOR
MANY IN EASTERN KENTUCKY...A SHOT AT SEEING THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. NOW THEY ARE HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING OUT...LIKELY LEADING TO ONLY
PATCHY FOG FOR THE VALLEYS...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EAST TOWARDS DAWN. IN ADDITION...A FEW SPECKS OF
LIGHT FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
LOCATIONS...AWAY FROM CREEKS...LAKES...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER NEAR
DAWN. CURRENTLY A MODERATE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT EXITS
- RUNNING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE DEEPER EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE
MIDDLE 40S ON THE RIDGES WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL TAKE A SMALL...BUT SHARP...TROUGH THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY THE STRONG BIG BEND RIDGE SPREADING EAST WHILE A
TROUGH AND ITS ENERGY PASS QUICKLY BY TO THE NORTH INTO THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL RISE THROUGHOUT THE
PROCESS PROTECTING THE AREA FROM ANY NORTHERN INTRUSIONS OF COLDER
AIR AND ANY PCPN THREAT. GIVEN THE OVERALL MODEL SAMENESS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE LATEST HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 MODEL MOST CLOSELY FOR
THE SHORT TERM...MAINLY TEMPERATURE/CLOUD...FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
WARMING TEMPS TODAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL TIMES OF
CLOUDS AND CLEARING...DICTATED BY THE FAST FLOW ALOFT...TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH NO REAL THREAT OF PCPN ON THE DOCKET WE CAN
FOCUS THE FORECAST ON THE PLEASANTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...FOR MID
OCTOBER...ON TAP THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO EXPECT READINGS TO STAY
OUT OF THE FROST ZONE TONIGHT WITH LITTLE CONCERN FOR ANY MORE THAN
SOME LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY. ALL
IN ALL...A PLEASANT END TO THE WEEK...WITH TIMES OF LIMITED SUNSHINE
THE ONLY POTENTIAL DRAWBACK.

FOR TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND WINDS FOLLOWED THE LATEST
CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...THROUGH THE FIRST 18 TO 24 HOURS OF
THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
BETTER REFLECT THE RIDGE VALLEY DIFFERENCES ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT. POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE
MINUSCULE VALUES FROM THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VERY MILD/PERHAPS NEAR RECORD WARMTH WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FOR THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE SECONDARY FOCUS
WILL BE AROUND A COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS IT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE DIFFERENCES BECOME
TOUGHER TO RESOLVE. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS DECENT UP TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH LESS CONFIDENCE POST FRONTAL.

TO START THE PERIOD...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS STRONG RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY. SOME PESKY CLOUDS COULD LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT MILDER. CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY ERODE ON SUNDAY AS SUBSIDENCE
TAKES OVER...ALLOWING A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL WITH READINGS INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY...THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH
HIGHS EASILY INTO THE UPPER 70S...AND LIKELY SEEING SOME LOWER 80S
IN PLACES. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WE COULD THREATEN
THE RECORDS. SAME COULD BE SAID ABOUT TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN UP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CONTINUING THE WARMTH. WITH RECORDS SLIGHTLY LOWER ON
TUESDAY...THEY COULD BE MORE IN JEOPARDY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY AND
AGREEMENT...HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH A PERIOD OF LIKELY POPS.
INSTABILITY LOOKS WAY TO WEAK TO SUPPORT ANY THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SLOW DOWN THE FRONT
AND STALL IT JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS IT A BIT
FARTHER NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY KEEP THE THREAT OF RAIN ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF KEEPS
THINGS DRY FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD. OPTING TO KEEP SOME LOW
POPS IN THE FORECAST AS IT MAY NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A WAVE PUSH
NORTH...ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BRINGING SOME RAIN
SHOWERS BACK INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WE
SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THAN IS TYPICAL
THIS NIGHT. FOG WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z AT SME
AND SJS WHERE TD DEPRESSIONS ARE THE LOWEST. SJS WAS KEPT LOWEST...
IFR...DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN FAR EAST KENTUCKY...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER OWING TO THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
OF THERE LATE ON THURSDAY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KPAH 240542
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation discussion for 06Z TAF Issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Introduced mention of fog into the tafs for the remainder of tonight
into the early morning hours. Large areas of clearing have developed
in the mid level overcast...allowing some fog to form already at a
few sites. Lower clouds based around 4k feet will attempt to
overspread our region from the northwest toward sunrise. This
cloudiness will help mitigate fog potential if it makes it here.
Vsbys may be worse than forecast if these clouds do not arrive by
sunrise. Once fog burns off...vfr conditions are expected for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

Aviation...MY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 240535 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE SKY COVER...LOWS...T...TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT REFLECTING CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.
ALSO...THREW IN A SMIDGEN OF FROST IN THE WX GRIDS RIGHT AROUND 12Z IN
THE DEEPEST VALLEYS...THOUGH BY FAR FOG WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT WX
CONCERN IN THOSE LOCATIONS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED PASSING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THESE
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FOG DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATER THAN IS TYPICAL
THIS NIGHT. FOG WILL PRIMARILY BE A CONCERN BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z AT SME
AND SJS WHERE TD DEPRESSIONS ARE THE LOWEST. SJS WAS KEPT LOWEST...
IFR...DUE TO ITS LOCATION IN FAR EAST KENTUCKY...WHERE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER OWING TO THE CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
OF THERE LATE ON THURSDAY. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND
13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THEREAFTER. WIND WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...FRIDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 240438
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

High cirrus clouds, some pretty thick, have overspread much of the
Commonwealth and will help keep our lows a bit warmer than earlier
this morning. Patchy fog will not be as widespread as it was earlier
this morning. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1238 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Surface ridging over Kentucky will keep SDF and LEX VFR with light
winds through the TAF period.  Similar conditions will be found at
BWG, with the exception of the possibility of some MVFR BR early
this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240244 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER.
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 240244 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

NOT MUCH TO UPDATE IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING SOME
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN HOW QUICKLY TEMPS HAVE DROPPED OFF THIS EVENING
HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER.
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KLMK 240114
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
914 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

High cirrus clouds, some pretty thick, have overspread much of the
Commonwealth and will help keep our lows a bit warmer than earlier
this morning. Patchy fog will not be as widespread as it was earlier
this morning as well. Lows will fall into the lower to mid 40s.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

An upper level shortwave trough will move in from the west tonight.
This system will spread high level clouds eastward over the TAF
sites overnight and into the morning hours. Occasional broken
ceilings above 4k ft may develop Friday afternoon with any ceilings
remaining above the MVFR threshold.

Think that fog development will be limited early Friday morning due
to increasing high and mid-level clouds arriving during the pre-dawn
hours. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG and kept SDF VFR
with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog
development.

Light and variable winds overnight will stay light but become
westerly at under 7kt Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 232354 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK TONIGHT. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIURNAL DROP OFF.
CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST HAS ALSO HELD TOGETHER A BIT BETTER
OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. AS SUCH...DID INCREASE
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL WAIT AND SEE
HOW THIS WILL AFFECT THE LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BEFORE MAKING ANY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

LOW STRATOCU HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM IN
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN
BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. HAVE HIT THIS HARDER AT SJS AND LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR EAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS LINGERED A BIT LONGER.
FURTHER WEST...HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR FOG AT SME...AS THE
FOG SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE
FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 232315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning.
Despite the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from
the lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

An upper level shortwave trough will move in from the west tonight.
This system will spread high level clouds eastward over the TAF
sites overnight and into the morning hours. Occasional broken
ceilings above 4k ft may develop Friday afternoon with any ceilings
remaining above the MVFR threshold.

Think that fog development will be limited early Friday morning due
to increasing high and mid-level clouds arriving during the pre-dawn
hours. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG and kept SDF VFR
with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog
development.

Light and variable winds overnight will stay light but become
westerly at under 7kt Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JDG






000
FXUS63 KPAH 232152
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mainly mid decks are anticipated with the passage of the weak
boundary tonight-tmrw morning. This will probably inhibit fog
development tonight, or at least minimize its vsby restrictions if
it does develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 232152
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
452 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 444 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Mainly mid decks are anticipated with the passage of the weak
boundary tonight-tmrw morning. This will probably inhibit fog
development tonight, or at least minimize its vsby restrictions if
it does develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KJKL 232004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
404 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT A
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEASTERN COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WORKING INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS SOUTH APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THE SFC...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TO
NEAR THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY BY DAWN ON SUNDAY...WITH THE TRIALING
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS...BUT LITTLE ELSE. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY.

THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RATHER PROGRESSIVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AND THEN DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH VALLEY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...BUT AS A TROUGH MOVES FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ORGANIZE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND WITH BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURES FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

THEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA AS THE SFC LOW IS PROJECTED TO TRACK WELL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA TOWARD JAMES BAY AT MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE...EVENTUALLY...AND ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCES COULD
LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...AT LEAST IF THE GFS WERE TO
VERIFY.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS...MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE
THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS. THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE REMAINS
WARMER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST...BUT THE SUPERBLEND WAS A TREND
UPWARD. HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 15C...SOME
LOCATIONS COULD TOP 80. OTHERWISE...THE TYPICAL FALL MORNING FOG AND
A RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT SHOULD BE A FEATURED ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PESKY LOW SC DECK IS ONLY JUST NOW BREAKING UP IN THE FAR EAST.
PIKE...MARTIN...AND PORTIONS OF JOHNSON AND FLOYD COUNTIES STILL HAVE
YET TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE. BUT TRANSITING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE...AND RIDGE AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ERODE ANY
LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOWS AND FOG POTENTIAL.
MIXING OF DRIER AIR ALOFT HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED SOLIDLY IN THE
MID 30S TO AROUND 40. LOWEST WAS 36...BRIEFLY AT THE QUICKSAND
MESONET. HARLAN HAS BEEN AT 37 FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S IN OUR
VALLEY LOCATIONS BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DO
NOT SEE HOW FROST COULD BE MUCH OF A THREAT. FOG SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE AS SFC AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS AR/TX/LA SHOULD SET UP CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR RADIATIVE COOLING. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SPOTS THROUGH OUR EASTERN
VALLEYS.

OTHERWISE...WEATHER LOOK TRANQUIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MID...UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FROM OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY TOMORROW MORNING. BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. INHERITED
TEMPS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD FOR THE SHORT TERM. ONLY TWEAKED TEMPS
TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLENDS...RESULTING IN VERY MINOR CHANGES
OVERALL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 231951
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 231951
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof should
pass by just north of the forecast area tonight. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely
just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. The chilly sfc
high that has been over the region for the past couple of days will
finally drift farther east of the area by Friday/Friday night,
allowing a significant warming trend to get underway. Could be
another round of high clouds later Friday night into Sat, but all in
all, should be a nice start to the weekend as temps climb well into
the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 231947
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof
should pass by just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will
likely just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. Chilly
sfc high that has been over the region for the past couple of
days will finally drift farther east of the region by
Friday/Friday night, allowing a significant warming trend to get
underway. Could be another round of high clouds later Friday night
into Sat, but all in all, should be a nice start to the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 231947
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
247 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. An upper level trof
should pass by just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is
that all measurable precip will stay to our north and we will
likely just get mid and high cloud cover from the system. Chilly
sfc high that has been over the region for the past couple of
days will finally drift farther east of the region by
Friday/Friday night, allowing a significant warming trend to get
underway. Could be another round of high clouds later Friday night
into Sat, but all in all, should be a nice start to the weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

Winds will shift to the south Sunday, which will help keep
temperatures well above normal Sunday through Tuesday.  Models,
this latest run at least, are showing some agreement with the
Tuesday into Wednesday cold frontal passage.  Models show the cold
front just west of the PAH forecast area by 12z Tuesday, so showers
will begin moving into western portions of the fa late Monday night
or early Tuesday.  Through the day Tuesday into Tuesday evening,
models show widespread, but not too significant, QPF across the
region.  Went with likely pops west/northwest to low to slight
chance pops southeast for showers and possibly a few thunderstorms
on Tuesday.  Went with likely pops southeast to chance pops
west/northwest Tuesday night for showers. Models differ a little on
when to push the precip on through our area, but overall precip
should be tapering off from northwest to southeast late Tuesday
night, and just kept some low chance to slight chance pops for our
southeast half of counties on Wednesday.  Temperatures will drop off
quite a bit behind the front Tuesday night through Thursday, with
near normal readings Wednesday into Wednesday night, and slightly
below normal readings by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Mid and high clouds will increase this afternoon...but cigs will
be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high pressure
holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog appears
lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some shallow
ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning,
especially across the northern and eastern forecast area. Despite
the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from the
lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain across the Ohio River
Valley through the period, while an upper level shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west tonight. This system will spread
high level clouds eastward over the TAF sites later this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Main forecast challenge is fog development at BWG and LEX overnight.
Soundings show a very deep light wind layer up to 5-6 kft with near
saturation and calm winds at the surface. However, there should be a
scattered/broken high level cloud deck remaining across central KY.
Forecast guidance shows visibility restrictions developing and
various hi-res model forecasts also suggest the possibility for fog.
For now, included a MVFR group at BWG/LEX and kept SDF VFR with the
idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog development.

Otherwise, light/variable winds Friday morning will become westerly
to northwesterly late in the period as a weak front passes through.
VFR conditions expected Friday after any morning fog burns off.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
ridging across the Ohio Valley with a weak shortwave trough moving
through the mid-Mississippi Valley. At the surface, high pressure is
centered across Kentucky/Ohio with mostly sunny skies and seasonably
cool temperatures this afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave trough will swing through the area
this evening through Friday morning, bringing an increase in
mid/high level clouds. 23.12z guidance remains consistent with
previous forecast runs showing that as this system approaches, the
very dry mid and low levels will keep precipitation threat at a
minimum. Looking at hi-res models, some show hint of light rain or
sprinkles moving in from the northwest overnight, but expecting this
to be mainly virga. Kept previous dry forecast going for the area
but could not rule out a sprinkle or two early Friday morning,
especially across the northern and eastern forecast area. Despite
the increased cloud cover tonight, lows look to range from the
lower to middle 40s.

The upper level pattern on Friday becomes more northwesterly in the
wake of the shortwave trough. Plan on morning high clouds to give
way to mostly sunny skies by afternoon with seasonable temperatures.
The overall airmass will slowly moderate and this should allow
temperatures to climb a few degrees higher compared to today. 850 mb
temps rise from +8C to around +10C which supports highs in the
middle to upper 60s. Overall another pleasant October day for the
region.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term will begin with northwesterly flow aloft and a weak
front moving through the area. This frontal passage should be dry
with just an increase in clouds expected. Behind the front high
pressure will build in at the surface and weak ridging will build in
aloft. Highs through the weekend will range from the upper 60s
across the Bluegrass to the mid 70s around the Bowling Green area.
Lows will warm from the mid and upper 40s Sunday morning to the
lower 50s Monday morning.

High pressure will shift off to the east Monday and a low pressure
system will approach from the west. Southerly winds will usher in
warmer air. Highs on Monday look quite warm, topping out in the
upper 70s to around 80. Lows will be on the warmer side as well on
Tuesday morning, only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to move off to
the northeast through midweek, swinging a cold front through the
area. The models are in much better agreement with timing today. The
best chance for rain and a few thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday
night across the region, so have bumped up pops to 50-60% for this
time frame. Showers will continue across east central KY Wednesday
morning as the front begins to slow. There may be a few showers in
the Lake Cumberland region Wednesday night if the front stalls near
the KY/TN border as well.

Temperatures Tuesday will remain quite warm, though with cloud cover
and precipitation moving in they are not expected to be as high as
Monday. Highs should top out in the lower to mid 70s. Wednesday will
be some 10 degrees cooler behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain across the Ohio River
Valley through the period, while an upper level shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west tonight. This system will spread
high level clouds eastward over the TAF sites later this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Main forecast challenge is fog development at BWG and LEX overnight.
Soundings show a very deep light wind layer up to 5-6 kft with near
saturation and calm winds at the surface. However, there should be a
scattered/broken high level cloud deck remaining across central KY.
Forecast guidance shows visibility restrictions developing and
various hi-res model forecasts also suggest the possibility for fog.
For now, included a MVFR group at BWG/LEX and kept SDF VFR with the
idea that the cloud cover will preclude extensive fog development.

Otherwise, light/variable winds Friday morning will become westerly
to northwesterly late in the period as a weak front passes through.
VFR conditions expected Friday after any morning fog burns off.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 231817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

PERSISTENT LOW SC DECK IS FINALLY DISSIPATING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. EASTERN LOCATIONS...SJS HAVE BEEN EVEN SLOWER TO MIX OUT AND
ARE ONLY NOW BEGINNING TO SEE SOME BREAKS AND SUNSHINE. LOW CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO CONCERN
US THEREAFTER. WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS...POSSIBLY SOME
MID LEVEL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG. DRIER AIR IS MIXING DOWN BUT SFC DEW POINTS SHOULD
RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE
AREA DECENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION OF FOG
OVERNIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. MAIN THREAT WOULD EXIST AT SME AND
SJS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT REAL HIGH. FOR NOW MENTIONED SOME MVFR AT
SME. COULD SEE SOME FOG AT SJS...IT BEING ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE
BIG SANDY BUT FOR NOW WENT OPTIMISTIC WITH PLANS TO REEVALUATE TRENDS
IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY
NORTHEAST BACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KLMK 231726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 123 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

No major changes made to forecast today. Temperatures have been a
little slow to rise, but overall are trending toward highs in the
lower to middle 60s. Mostly sunny skies will be the rule, with high
level clouds on track to spread eastward over the region later this
afternoon and into the evening hours.

Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

With temperatures warming up in the upper 30s to 40s this morning,
the frost advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise, very minor
tweaks were made to the forecast today. Stratocumulus is slowly
eroding across the eastern forecast area and should give way to
sunny skies in the next few hours. Otherwise, some high level
clouds will spill east over the area this afternoon but overall a
pleasant late October day is on tap for the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

High pressure at the surface will remain across the Ohio River
Valley through the period, while an upper level shortwave trough
begins to move in from the west tonight. This system will spread
high level clouds eastward over the TAF sites later this evening and
through the overnight hours.

Main forecast challenge is fog development at BWG and LEX overnight.
Soundings show a very deep light wind layer up to 5-6 kft with near
saturation and calm winds at the surface. However, there should be a
scattered/broken high level cloud deck remaining across central KY
overnight. Forecast guidance shows visibility restrictions
developing and various hi-res model forecasts also suggest the
possibility for fog. For now, included a MVFR group at BWG/LEX and
kept SDF VFR with the idea that the cloud cover will preclude
extensive fog development.

Otherwise, light/variable winds Friday morning will become westerly
to northwesterly late in the period as a weak front passes through.
VFR conditions expected Friday after any morning fog burns off.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231615
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231615
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONES. UPDATED
HOURLY GRIDS FOR TRENDS IN SKY AND TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231407
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. LOW SC IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE...MIX OUT THIS MORNING. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AS WE ARE STARTING OUT OF THE GATE A BIT SLOW ON DIURNAL RISES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES TO THE ZONE PACKAGE
ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KLMK 231303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
903 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 903 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2014

With temperatures warming up in the upper 30s to 40s this morning,
the frost advisory was allowed to expire. Otherwise, very minor
tweaks were made to the forecast today. Stratocumulus is slowly
eroding across the eastern forecast area and should give way to
sunny skies in the next few hours. Otherwise, some high level
clouds will spill east over the area this afternoon but overall a
pleasant late October day is on tap for the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The MVFR stratus deck continues near KLEX early this morning.
Additionally, shallow ground fog has led to IFR vsbys at KBWG.  Each
of these will quickly dissipate after sunrise, leading to mainly
clear skies and VFR conditions.  Winds will be light and variable
today into tonight as surface high pressure passes through the
region.

For tonight, guidance suggests we may once again see some light fog
at KBWG and KLEX.  However, think increasing high-level clouds
should help to temper this threat, thus will no include any mention
at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 231154
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
652 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Main concerns early this morning are patchy frost and fog. The
coldest temps so far have been in the mid 30s across parts of
southern Illinois...from the kmvn/kmdh corridor east to Harrisburg.
Temps elsewhere were still in the 39 to 44 degree range at 08z. For
most of our region...it appears frost coverage will be patchy this
morning. As far as the fog...there has not been any dense fog so
far...but there will likely be some dense fog patches around
sunrise. Added mention of patchy fog to zones/grids for early this
morning.

Satellite indicates mid and high clouds over western Missouri and
Arkansas are making steady eastward progress. This cloudiness is
associated with a weakening 500 mb shortwave trough that will reach
the Mississippi River this afternoon. Very dry air in the low levels
/associated with the surface high over our region/ will negate any
mention of precip today. Model high temp guidance has been running a
little too cool on recent days...so will keep forecast highs a
degree or two above mos.

During the night tonight...another shortwave trough will move
quickly southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This
system will keep some mid and high cloudiness over our region. Temps
will be milder due to the clouds and light southwest winds behind
the retreating surface ridge.

On Friday...light southwest winds and clearing skies should combine
to push high temps to at least 70 degrees in much of our region. The
relatively mild conditions will continue Friday night.

On Saturday...model guidance is in good agreement that a weak
surface cold front will move southeast across our region. The nam is
the most aggressive with moisture return ahead of this front. The
nam indicates some light precip will accompany the front...but it
remains an outlier. Will keep the forecast dry...but a band of low
cloudiness is likely to precede or accompany the front. Given the
warm start to the day and increasing afternoon sunshine...guidance
highs in the mid to upper 70s look reasonable. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive behind the front Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term is based on a blend of the latest and previous
ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF. This should minimize any
model errors and discrepancies in handling more specific features
within broad progressive w/e flow across the conus. Moderate run to
run issues exist with the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF.

Sunday and Monday should be dry with above normal temperatures. SW
flow aloft will develop, while a warm front lifts north of the
region. By 18z Monday, a strong high should cover the Atlantic
states and coast with low pressure over the upper Midwest, and a
trailing front into the southern high plains. No precip with a very
dry airmass over the region.

Tuesday, energy aloft will move out of the nations mid section,
accompanied by the arrival of a modest cold front. Think most of
Monday night will be dry. However chances for showers increase
substantially Tuesday. As the energy moves NE, with the surface
low moving north of the Great Lakes, the movement of the boundary
and progression of forcing and moisture should slow. Carried higher
PoPs into Tuesday night, then lowered them from NW to SE Wednesday,
dry for now Wednesday night. Have added a thunder mention as
instability parameters suggest the possibility.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 652 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Shallow ground fog will burn off quickly after sunrise. Mid and high
clouds will increase later this morning and this afternoon...but
cigs will be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high
pressure holds sway through this evening. The potential for fog
appears lower tonight due to mid and high cloudiness...but some
shallow ground fog is possible if clouds become scattered.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN










000
FXUS63 KJKL 231110
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS ARE
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE...PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MORNING IN CASE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS
MODELS STILL HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. ONCE
THESE CLOUDS FINALLY DO DISSIPATE...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CLEAR
AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS...THOUGH IT
SHOULD CREATE NO CATEGORY CHANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231044
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
644 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 642 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The MVFR stratus deck continues near KLEX early this morning.
Additionally, shallow ground fog has led to IFR vsbys at KBWG.  Each
of these will quickly dissipate after sunrise, leading to mainly
clear skies and VFR conditions.  Winds will be light and variable
today into tonight as surface high pressure passes through the
region.

For tonight, guidance suggests we may once again see some light fog
at KBWG and KLEX.  However, think increasing high-level clouds
should help to temper this threat, thus will no include any mention
at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>031-038-045-046-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231038
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
638 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE ALL OF THE JKL CWA THIS
MORNING. LUCKILY...SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS IS
FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW A BIT OF A DISSIPATING TREND...WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY AND MIXING IS ALLOWED TO OCCUR.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS THOUGHTS...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THE BEST DIMINISHMENT
IS ACTUALLY ACROSS THE CWA...PROGRESSING SOUTHWARD. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING IN CASE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE...AS MODELS STILL HAVE A
POOR HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER.

DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN SHORT OF THEIR
ORIGINAL FORECASTED LOWS. AS A RESULT...ENDED UP ADJUSTING BOTH THE
LOW TEMPERATURE AND THE DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS. THIS WILL COMPLETELY ELIMINATE
ANY CHANCES OF FURTHER FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AS
WAS ORIGINALLY MENTIONED IN THE MORNING SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 230836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Main concerns early this morning are patchy frost and fog. The
coldest temps so far have been in the mid 30s across parts of
southern Illinois...from the kmvn/kmdh corridor east to Harrisburg.
Temps elsewhere were still in the 39 to 44 degree range at 08z. For
most of our region...it appears frost coverage will be patchy this
morning. As far as the fog...there has not been any dense fog so
far...but there will likely be some dense fog patches around
sunrise. Added mention of patchy fog to zones/grids for early this
morning.

Satellite indicates mid and high clouds over western Missouri and
Arkansas are making steady eastward progress. This cloudiness is
associated with a weakening 500 mb shortwave trough that will reach
the Mississippi River this afternoon. Very dry air in the low levels
/associated with the surface high over our region/ will negate any
mention of precip today. Model high temp guidance has been running a
little too cool on recent days...so will keep forecast highs a
degree or two above mos.

During the night tonight...another shortwave trough will move
quickly southeast across the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. This
system will keep some mid and high cloudiness over our region. Temps
will be milder due to the clouds and light southwest winds behind
the retreating surface ridge.

On Friday...light southwest winds and clearing skies should combine
to push high temps to at least 70 degrees in much of our region. The
relatively mild conditions will continue Friday night.

On Saturday...model guidance is in good agreement that a weak
surface cold front will move southeast across our region. The nam is
the most aggressive with moisture return ahead of this front. The
nam indicates some light precip will accompany the front...but it
remains an outlier. Will keep the forecast dry...but a band of low
cloudiness is likely to precede or accompany the front. Given the
warm start to the day and increasing afternoon sunshine...guidance
highs in the mid to upper 70s look reasonable. Cooler and drier
conditions will arrive behind the front Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The long term is based on a blend of the latest and previous
ensemble means from the GFS and ECMWF. This should minimize any
model errors and discrepancies in handling more specific features
within broad progressive w/e flow across the conus. Moderate run to
run issues exist with the operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF.

Sunday and Monday should be dry with above normal temperatures. SW
flow aloft will develop, while a warm front lifts north of the
region. By 18z Monday, a strong high should cover the Atlantic
states and coast with low pressure over the upper Midwest, and a
trailing front into the southern high plains. No precip with a very
dry airmass over the region.

Tuesday, energy aloft will move out of the nations mid section,
accompanied by the arrival of a modest cold front. Think most of
Monday night will be dry. However chances for showers increase
substantially Tuesday. As the energy moves NE, with the surface
low moving north of the Great Lakes, the movement of the boundary
and progression of forcing and moisture should slow. Carried higher
PoPs into Tuesday night, then lowered them from NW to SE Wednesday,
dry for now Wednesday night. Have added a thunder mention as
instability parameters suggest the possibility.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Some shallow ground fog will continue to thicken up through sunrise.
There may be some very poor vsby at the asos sites around
sunrise...primarily kpah and kcgi. It should be rather brief...since
the sun will be very effective at burning it off. Mid and high
clouds will increase later this morning and this afternoon...but
cigs will be above 10k feet. Winds will be light as surface high
pressure holds sway through this evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

Short term/aviation...MY
Long term...CTN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 230805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION...AS A
STRONG LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OFF TO OUR EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. EXPECT THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM. A UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS ARE SUPPORTING THAT THIS
WAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS US...DUE TO THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG COASTAL LOW. AS
SUCH...DON/T EXPECT MUCH IMPACTS TO THE REGION OTHER THAN A FEW MORE
CLOUDS FRIDAY.

GIVEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ALL THE MODELS SHOWED EASTERN KY
CLEARING OUT AS OF YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND STAYING CLEAR INTO THIS
MORNING. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLOW SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN KY...RESULTING
IN QUITE THE PERSISTENT BANK OF LOW END VFR AND HIGH END MVFR CLOUDS
CENTERED OVER OUR CWA AND POINTS TO THE NE. HOPEFULLY WITH THE
INFLUENCE OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING BEGINNING THIS MORNING...AS WELL
AS MOVEMENT OF THE LOW TO THE NE...THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL
SUPPORT FOR ONGOING CONDITIONS...TRIED TO USE A BEST GUESS APPROACH
BASED ON THESE ABOVE FACTORS...IN WHICH CASE THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN
BREAKING UP JUST AFTER DAWN. WITHOUT THE AFFECT OF THESE
CLOUDS...TEMPS WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THIS MORNING...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FROST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...CLOUDS HAVE KEPT THE TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING...AND HAVE
PREVENTED ADEQUATE INVERSIONS. THE EXCEPTION IS SITE EKQ ON THE FAR
SW FRINGE OF THE CWA. HERE...ACCORDING TO THE SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS...CLEARING HAS LED TO COOLER TEMPS AND FOG /AS WELL AS
POSSIBLE FROST/ DEVELOPMENT. AS SUCH...IF ANY OF THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE CWA CLEARS OUT JUST BEFORE DAWN...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPS DROP JUST ENOUGH AS TO ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT
HERE TOO. WENT AHEAD AND INCLUDED PATCHY FOG AND FROST FOR MOSTLY
CLEAR VALLEY REGIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230745 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THEY
ALL SHIFT A TROUGH EAST AND OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LARGE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BIG BEND AREA OF TEXAS. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN
EXPAND TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE
IT FLATTENS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION BECOMES MORE ZONAL...FOR A TIME. THERE WILL BE A RESURGENCE
IN THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FOR MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS WITH THIS SO THAT THEY ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. AS
A RESULT...CONFIDENCE HAS IMPROVED THAT A BROAD TROUGH WILL BRUSH
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SOME OF ITS
ASSOCIATED ENERGY PASSING OVER THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE FORECAST.
GIVEN THE IMPROVING MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL BLEND
FOR THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS HIGH WILL MODERATE ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO THE
NORTHWEST - WHOSE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH WARMER AIR INTO THIS
PART OF THE STATE. AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA...SHOWER...AND PERHAPS THUNDER...CHANCES WILL BE
ON THE RISE FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A PRETTY GOOD START WITH CHANGES MADE
MAINLY TO BETTER TIME THE HOURLY POPS TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST. DID ALSO ADD SOME RIDGE AND VALLEY EFFECTS INTO THE LOW
TEMPERATURES GRIDS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KLMK 230714
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
314 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak shortwave
ridging across the Ohio Valley.  However, a shortwave trough will
push in from the northwest tonight into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover and a small chance for a few sprinkles.

Clouds continue to persist early this morning across portions of the
Northern Bluegrass.  However, there have been large breaks occurring
in these clouds across portions of southern Ohio, which will
continue to push southwest into KY.  The clouds have kept
temperatures up thus far overnight, which will likely inhibit
widespread frost formation across portions of the Northern
Bluegrass.  Elsewhere, temperatures have fallen into the 30s and
lower 40s.  These readings will continue to drop a few more degrees
over the coming hours, thus some frost formation still appears
likely, especially in sheltered areas.

The region will see abundant sunshine today as surface ridging
remains fixed over the Ohio Valley.  With the surface high parked
over the region, turbulent mixing will be limited.  Thus, despite
850mb temps rising to near 10C, surface temperatures will only top
out in the low to perhaps middle 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will approach the
region.  This will make for an increase in cloud cover from west to
east through the overnight hours into Friday.  This shortwave trough
has limited deep moisture, and will be fighting a rather dry
near-surface airmass.  Therefore, do not expect anything more than
increased cloudiness and perhaps some virga/a few sprinkles out of
this system late tonight into Friday.  Lows tonight will dip into
the lower 40s, with highs on Friday recovering back into the middle
60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

Weak high pressure at the surface Friday night will give way to a
cold front moving through the area Saturday. The front will be
weakening and only some shallow low level moisture will be
associated with it, so while we`ll see an increase in cloudiness it
appears the front will be free of measurable precipitation.  Lows
Friday night and Saturday night should mostly be in the 40s.  Highs
on Saturday ahead of the front may be able to rise into the 70s,
though that will depend in part on just how much cloudiness there
is.  The numbers that are in the forecast right now may be a little
too optimistic.

Sunday through Monday night high pressure over the southeastern U.S.
will keep us dry.  Sunday will be cool with temps in the 60s as the
high is just about overhead.  On Monday, though, we`ll be in return
flow behind the high and ahead of an approaching cold front.
Southerly breezes should help to propel us well into the 70s.

That cold front will draw closer on Tuesday but will remain to our
west, with another day in the 70s in store for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  Unsurprisingly, the models have trended this
front slower, and it looks like the daylight hours Tuesday may be
dry, especially east and southeast of Louisville.

The front will then sweep through Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Leaned more on the GFS for this forecast since it has begun to show
some consistency over the past couple of runs.  The EC has varied
quite a bit from run to run, and the operational run doesn`t look
much like the ensemble mean.  Given that, it looks like we should
have a band of showers, and maybe a few rumbles of thunder, pass
through the entire region Tuesday night, with possible redevelopment
over Kentucky on Wednesday.  Given all this, we have reduced PoPs
Tuesday, kept chance PoPs Tuesday night, and increased PoPs on
Wednesday.

No frosts or freezes are expected through the 30th.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     KYZ023>031-038-045-046-053-054-061>066-070>078-081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY until 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ this morning FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230558
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
158 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DECK OF HIGH END MVFR CIGS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF EASTERN
KY...AND GIVEN THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT THESE CIGS TO SLOWLY WEAR AWAY FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...BRINGING CLEARING VFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE SKIES CLEAR TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO
REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230458
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1257 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

The near-term TAF concern continues to be the persistent MVFR
stratus deck near KLEX.  Given northeast flow at this cloud level,
expect this deck to persist at KLEX for at least the next few
hours.  There may be some breaks at times, but will continue a
broken MVFR deck there into the mid-morning hours.

Some shallow ground fog is possible at KBWG this morning.  However,
guidance has come in a bit more optimistic, and depressions are
still at 4 degrees, so will limit any vsby restrictions to just a
TEMPO group with this issuance.

Otherwise, today will feature just some passing high clouds at all
sites with VFR conditions persisting.  Winds will be light and
variable as a surface ridge crosses the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-
     081-082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     this morning FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230251
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1051 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

PER LATEST IR IMAGERY AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER
THROUGHOUT CWA TO RETAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STILL LEFT A CHANCE FOR SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WEST
OF I-75 NEAR DAWN. SUBSEQUENTLY... KEPT A CHANCE FOR PATCHY VALLEY
FOG AND FROST IN THAT AREA NEAR DAWN. ALSO HAVE BUMPED UP OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 900 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very persistent strato-cu cloud cover continues over the Bluegrass
this evening. The western edge of these clouds are stationary and
lie along a north south line right around Frankfort. Do not think
that the Bluegrass will clear out until the early morning hours.
Patchy frost is still possible across areas where clearing has
already taken place.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 222354 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KJKL 222354 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

GIVEN RECENT INCREASE IN SKY COVER PER RECENT IR IMAGERY...EVEN IN THE
WESTERN MOST LOCATIONS...HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER THROUGH 06Z. BOTH
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A GOOD LL MOIST LAYER THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SO HAVE
COMPROMISED BETWEEN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL OUTPUT. OTHER MAJOR
CHANGE WAS REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF FROST IN THE GRIDS. GIVEN CURRENT
DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 40S AND MOSTLY OVERCAST SKIES...DO
NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUST FROST EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN
LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN. WE DID SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LAST
NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF WARRANTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR/MVFR STRATOCU WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE GONE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC...ALLOWING
FOR CEILINGS TO DROP DOWN TO MVFR AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AS WE COOL
OFF TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATER
THURSDAY MORNING...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KLMK 222319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Clear skies are expected at SDF and BWG tonight and Thursday with no
obstructions to visibilities.

Persistent low strato-cu continues at LEX, with the west edge of the
cloud shield just to the west of the airport. Ceilings are currently
right near 3k feet, near the MVFR-VFR threshold. Clearing at LEX
will slowly develop this evening with clear skies expected towards
midnight and for much of Thursday.

Expect light northeasterly winds of 5kt or less overnight and
Thursday morning before becoming light and variable by afternoon.
With nearly calm winds expected overnight at BWG and LEX, some light
patchy fog may develop towards morning and bring a possibility of
MVFR visibilities, which will improve shortly after sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...FROST ADVISORY from 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     Thursday FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 222203
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
503 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast tonight as a surface
high pressure ridge passes overhead. This may lead to potential
for ground fog...with some ifr conditions possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites. As the high shifts east
tmrw, some high clouds will begin to move in from the west.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








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