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000
FXUS63 KJKL 291445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 291445 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LOW PRESSURE OUT TO THE WEST. THE EARLIER
VALLEY FOG HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA WITH MAINLY SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA. JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA
ATTM...BUT WITH A LACK OF DEBRIS CLOUDS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY WHEN COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY...BUT DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S MOST LOCATIONS
UNDER THE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WINDS HAVE PICKED UP A BIT FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WHILE THE
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE STICKY MID TO UPPER 60S. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST MAINLY FOR NEAR TERM CONDITIONS AND TRENDS WHILE ALSO
REMOVING THE FOG. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WHILE A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 291347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291347
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
947 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 940 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

High-res model forecast reflectivity show bands of precipitation
getting started as early as the next hour. Just a little bit of
sunshine would help to provide showers compared to the extensive
cloud cover yesterday that prevented showers until the afternoon.
Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday, but capped it at
scattered (30-50%). Temperatures will vary through the day based on
where those showers/storms popped up, but in general have highs in
the lower 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO JIVE BETTER WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. ALSO SLOWED THE POPS A BIT MORE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE HRRR MODEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 819 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE BURNING OFF THROUGH 13Z. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS.
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT DUSK...WITH SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY
DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS AFTER 06Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL PEAK IN THE 5 TO 10 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 291053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Some light fog/low stratus will be possible at the TAF sites this
morning.  Any restrictions should remain in the high end MVFR
category and be brief.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 290826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT RIGHT
ON THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS SUCH...MOST
MODELS ARE DRIER WITH QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
REDUCE POPS CONSIDERABLY...ESP OVER OUR N/W COUNTIES. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO REDUCE MORE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AREAS WITH
TIME. WILL ALSO REMOVE THUNDER RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE COOLER 60S AND 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 290826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT RIGHT
ON THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS SUCH...MOST
MODELS ARE DRIER WITH QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
REDUCE POPS CONSIDERABLY...ESP OVER OUR N/W COUNTIES. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO REDUCE MORE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AREAS WITH
TIME. WILL ALSO REMOVE THUNDER RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE COOLER 60S AND 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT RIGHT
ON THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS SUCH...MOST
MODELS ARE DRIER WITH QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
REDUCE POPS CONSIDERABLY...ESP OVER OUR N/W COUNTIES. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO REDUCE MORE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AREAS WITH
TIME. WILL ALSO REMOVE THUNDER RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE COOLER 60S AND 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290812
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&



&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290812
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OFF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MEANWHILE...
ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS
WILL HELP TO BREAK DOWN THE OVERALL LONGWAVE TROUGHING PATTERN THAT
HAS EXISTED OVER MUCH OF THE LAST WEEK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...KY WILL FIND ITSELF WEDGED IN BETWEEN
THESE TWO RIDGES...WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AMPLIFYING OVER THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED. EXPECT THIS
TROUGH TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT...STAYING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED...WHILE WEAK RIDGING SLIDES IN JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PATTERN TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF KY THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BE COLLOCATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AT THE
START OF THE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THIS LOW
NEWRD...ATTACHING TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN
COAST OF CANADA. AS SUCH...THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SPAN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE OF KY THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...CREATING A
DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
WARM MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AND GIVEN THE
BLOCKED NATURE OF THIS CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW...EXPECT THERE TO BE
LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT...SHIFTING ONLY SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TN BORDER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT WILL AT LEAST ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF
THE DEVELOP UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

EXPECT BEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO BE ON SUNDAY...AS HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE
BOUNDARY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DIRECTIONAL
SHEER OR SPEED SHEER...AND SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW HIGH AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...WILL OFFSET ANY OF THE HIGHER CAPE
AMOUNTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...BUT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS
WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THE BOUNDARY THEN SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THIS WILL CREATE A WIND SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH
COOLER AND MORE STABLE NW FLOW TAKING HOLD. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THIS REGIME...AS WILL THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THAT BEING SAID...THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE IN SUCH A CLOSE PROXIMITY THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH AND SE CWA...CANNOT BE RULED
OUT EACH DAY. SO ESSENTIALLY...POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OVERALL COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND MORE MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO
THE CWA.

GIVEN DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE
SUPERBLEND OF MODELS SEEMED TO HANDLE POPS AND OTHER PARAMETERS
FAIRLY WELL. THE ONLY MAJOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE MODEL BLEND WAS TO
UNDERCUT POPS SOME DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS DUE TO LOSS OF
INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH THE SUPERBLEND 12 HOUR GRIDS ARE
JUST NOT CAPABLE OF PICKING UP ON. TEMPS...WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER
ALL SEEMED QUITE REASONABLE AND WITHIN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&



&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 290800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290800
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
400 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Locations that saw rainfall yesterday may start the morning with
some patchy fog.  Fog should quickly burn off after sunrise.

The region will remain in a warm, moist airmass today with a few
upper level shortwaves expected to spark isld-sct convection
throughout the day.  Wind profiles will remain supports of multicell
clusters below severe limits.  The strongest storms may produce
gusty winds or small hail as a decent amount of CAPE should build
over the region with skies starting out mostly sunny.  Precipitable
water values should be between 1.5-1.7 inches which is on the higher
end of climatology for May.  This should result in efficient precip
producers with briefly heavy rainfall. High temps should reach the
low to mid 80s today...potentially cooler in spots that see rainfall.

Tonight the convection should cease or become widely scattered in
nature.  According to most of the mesoscale models, most locations
will stay dry tonight.  Thus, have lowered POPs to 20% for much of
the overnight hours with an increase in POPs just before sunrise
when an upper level shortwave is progged to enter the area.  Low
temps will remain mild in the mid 60s to around 70.

Saturday convective activity should pick up around or shortly after
sunrise.  Shortwave activity will increase ahead of an approaching
cold front and upper trough.  40-70% cover of showers/storms is
expected for Saturday with the best chances west of I-65.  With
slightly better wind profiles and modest CAPE, strong storms with
gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall will certainly be
possible.  High temps should range through the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 358 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

The medium range guidance continues to be in general agreement on
the front end of the forecast package.  An upper level trough axis
will be approaching the region at the beginning of the period
bringing several rounds of shower and thunderstorms to the region.
Highest potential here will be from Saturday night through about
Monday afternoon.  While instability will be generally decent, the
rich/deep moisture profiles look to keep severe weather chances down
a bit.  Damaging winds and perhaps an isolated hail threat look like
the main severe weather hazards.  However, of more concern will be
the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall with such high
moisture in place.  Temperatures during this period will likely be
held down due to clouds and moisture.  For this forecast, have stuck
closer to the lower end of the multi-model consensus here with highs
in the lower-mid 70s and overnight lows in the lower-middle 60s.

By late Monday, the upper level trough looks to shift slightly more
to the east.  The trough axis will likely be a little slower moving
out than the current model suggest, thus diurnally driven convection
looks likely for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.  More breaks in the
clouds look likely for Tuesday which should allow temperatures to
warm into the lower 80s.  By Wednesday, the models take the east
coast trough and allow the southern base of the trough to cut off.
The main differences in the models at this point are whether or not
the upper low will retrograde westward toward the MS delta region,
or if it will temporarily stall over the northern Gulf coast and
then head east.  The GFS and it camp of ensembles suggest more of
the retrograde solution, while the Op Euro does the latter with a
temp stall and then movement off to the east.  While these are
different solutions in regards to the upper levels, both models do
suggest some sort of tropical development off the SE coast by late
week.  The moisture from that system may eventually impact our
region later in the week as well.

With regards to sensible weather, given the increasing of heights
aloft and with the cut off to the south, we should see more of a
diurnally driven convection pattern for mid to late week.  Coverage
of precipitation looks to be scattered each afternoon.  Temperatures
look to warm a little bit as the week goes on with afternoon highs
in the mid 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to around 70.

Total QPF amounts for the week still look rather decent with both
the GFS and Euro runs putting out 2-3 inches.  The GFS solutions
seem to be a bit overdone in both coverage and amounts, with the
Euro solutions looking more realistic.  Still think there is
potential for some localized hydro issues early in the period with
heavy rainfall and the possibility of locations seeing
repeated/training of storms.  This will be something to keep an eye
on in later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER. EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS ON THE MORE HUMID SIDE OF
THE BOUNDARY...WITH THE AIR MASS NOTICEABLY MORE STICKY COMPARED
TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. A WEAK IMPULSE OR TWO WILL ONCE AGAIN PASS
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE
TRAJECTORY OF THESE IMPULSES...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKER CAP IN
PLACE AND LIKELY MORE INSTABILITY BUILDING TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION SEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET. HIGHS
WILL BE WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH LESS CLOUDS...GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

CONVECTION WILL DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...AND PATCHY
FOG SETTING UP...PARTICULARLY AT LOCATIONS THAT SEE SUSTAINED
RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER THERE ALSO BE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO
MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP MORE OF A GRADIENT OF POPS ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH BETTER STORM CHANCES NEAR I-64...AND LESSER CHANCES TO
THE SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S IN THE
NORTH...TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290653 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290653 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVED NORTH ALONG THE
WESTERN FRINGE OF OUR AREA...HOWEVER THESE HAVE DISSIPATED IN THE
LAST HOUR...AND THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE A POP MINIMUM
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...BEFORE A SLIGHT UPTICK MAY ONCE
AGAIN OCCUR TOWARDS DAWN. FRESHENED UP SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO ALLOWED FOR A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WITH MUCH OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THINNING OUT WITH TIME...HOWEVER IN GENERAL THE FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN PLAGUE THE VALLEYS THROUGH
13Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING. SME WILL BE HIT HARD...WITH AIRFIELD
MINIMUMS LIKELY HOLDING ON THROUGH DAWN. EXPECT MVFR FOR THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LOZ COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY GO DOWN TO
IFR OR LOWER...GIVEN THE CLEARING TRENDS. ONCE THE FOG
DISSIPATES...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WARRANTING AT LEAST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL
LOCATIONS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290533
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
133 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Light fog/low stratus will once again pose a TAF challenge for
tonight.  LEX did receive some light rain late this evening so think
that this TAF site will probably see the worst flight conditions
toward sunrise.  Went ahead and dropped their cigs to low end MVFR.
They could dip into the IFR cat as well, but not confident enough to
add this to the TAFs attm.  With low level winds slightly elevated
just off the sfc, think that low end MVFR is more likely.  BWG/SDF
should still see MVFR conditions after 9Z as well.  Flight
conditions should return to VFR after sunrise with perhaps LEX
taking a bit more time to recover.

Isolated to scattered showers/storms will again be around throughout
the day today and will include in the TAF sites with reduced flight
conditions possible in convection.

Winds will range from E to S early this morning remaining under 7
kts for most of the early morning hours.  Winds will increase to 8
to 12 kts for the daylight hours today becoming predominantly SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 290446 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290446 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 290446 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290446 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1146 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KLMK 290417
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290417
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1215 AM EDT Fri May 29 2015

Increased POPs to 20-30% over portions of south central and east
central KY overnight as showery activity has picked up in these
areas over the last hour.  According to the 0Z NAM, this light
activity should persist through the overnight hours.

Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 290200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS SO HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT
AS WELL AS BUMPED POPS DOWN. ALSO UPDATED TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT
MOST RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUES TO PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AREA AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES (LBL) AREA
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND NARROW BAND OF DIFFRENTIAL VORTICITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL MO MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX) HAS LED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SHORT
TERM CONVECTION. THE 12Z NAM-WRF (NMM VERSION) SEEMS TO HANDLE
THESE FEATURES WELL AND WAS USED TO TEMPLATE THE EVENING
CONVECTION. THROUGH MID-EVENING...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LBL BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO
REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES IN THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MAY BE OFF A FEW MILES IN GRID LOCATION FROM HOUR TO
HOUR...BUT TRYING TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES WITHIN THE 2.5KM GRID
SPACING. THE MORE COURSE TEXT AND TABULUAR FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY
NOT INDICATE THESE FINER WEATHER FEATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUES TO PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AREA AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES (LBL) AREA
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND NARROW BAND OF DIFFRENTIAL VORTICITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL MO MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX) HAS LED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SHORT
TERM CONVECTION. THE 12Z NAM-WRF (NMM VERSION) SEEMS TO HANDLE
THESE FEATURES WELL AND WAS USED TO TEMPLATE THE EVENING
CONVECTION. THROUGH MID-EVENING...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LBL BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO
REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES IN THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MAY BE OFF A FEW MILES IN GRID LOCATION FROM HOUR TO
HOUR...BUT TRYING TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES WITHIN THE 2.5KM GRID
SPACING. THE MORE COURSE TEXT AND TABULUAR FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY
NOT INDICATE THESE FINER WEATHER FEATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 290111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUES TO PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AREA AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES (LBL) AREA
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND NARROW BAND OF DIFFRENTIAL VORTICITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL MO MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX) HAS LED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SHORT
TERM CONVECTION. THE 12Z NAM-WRF (NMM VERSION) SEEMS TO HANDLE
THESE FEATURES WELL AND WAS USED TO TEMPLATE THE EVENING
CONVECTION. THROUGH MID-EVENING...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LBL BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO
REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES IN THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MAY BE OFF A FEW MILES IN GRID LOCATION FROM HOUR TO
HOUR...BUT TRYING TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES WITHIN THE 2.5KM GRID
SPACING. THE MORE COURSE TEXT AND TABULUAR FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY
NOT INDICATE THESE FINER WEATHER FEATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUES TO PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AREA AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES (LBL) AREA
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND NARROW BAND OF DIFFRENTIAL VORTICITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL MO MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX) HAS LED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SHORT
TERM CONVECTION. THE 12Z NAM-WRF (NMM VERSION) SEEMS TO HANDLE
THESE FEATURES WELL AND WAS USED TO TEMPLATE THE EVENING
CONVECTION. THROUGH MID-EVENING...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LBL BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO
REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES IN THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MAY BE OFF A FEW MILES IN GRID LOCATION FROM HOUR TO
HOUR...BUT TRYING TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES WITHIN THE 2.5KM GRID
SPACING. THE MORE COURSE TEXT AND TABULUAR FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY
NOT INDICATE THESE FINER WEATHER FEATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUES TO PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AREA AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES (LBL) AREA
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND NARROW BAND OF DIFFRENTIAL VORTICITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL MO MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX) HAS LED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SHORT
TERM CONVECTION. THE 12Z NAM-WRF (NMM VERSION) SEEMS TO HANDLE
THESE FEATURES WELL AND WAS USED TO TEMPLATE THE EVENING
CONVECTION. THROUGH MID-EVENING...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LBL BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO
REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES IN THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MAY BE OFF A FEW MILES IN GRID LOCATION FROM HOUR TO
HOUR...BUT TRYING TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES WITHIN THE 2.5KM GRID
SPACING. THE MORE COURSE TEXT AND TABULUAR FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY
NOT INDICATE THESE FINER WEATHER FEATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 290111
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 811 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUES TO PERSIST
OVER PARTS OF THE PURCHASE AREA AND LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES (LBL) AREA
THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...INSTABILITY AND NARROW BAND OF DIFFRENTIAL VORTICITY AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL MO MCV (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX) HAS LED TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SHORT
TERM CONVECTION. THE 12Z NAM-WRF (NMM VERSION) SEEMS TO HANDLE
THESE FEATURES WELL AND WAS USED TO TEMPLATE THE EVENING
CONVECTION. THROUGH MID-EVENING...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SETTLE OVER THE LBL BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES...WINDS AND OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO
REFLECT THE MINOR CHANGES IN THIS MESOSCALE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. MAY BE OFF A FEW MILES IN GRID LOCATION FROM HOUR TO
HOUR...BUT TRYING TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES WITHIN THE 2.5KM GRID
SPACING. THE MORE COURSE TEXT AND TABULUAR FORECAST PRODUCTS MAY
NOT INDICATE THESE FINER WEATHER FEATURES.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
727 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Another complex overnight TAF period is in store as lingering
low-level moisture will combine with weak low-level moisture
transport to potentially cause flight restrictions.  All sites
should remain VFR and precipitation-free through at least 06Z
tonight.  After 06Z, light fog and/or low stratus will be possible.
There will be more of a gradient wind tonight (around 5 knots by
12Z) which should help limit any dense fog.  Also, the breaks in the
clouds this afternoon allowed all sites to mix dewpoints into the
mid 60s, which is below the crossover temperatures.  However,
guidance continues to hint at an MVFR deck developing just before
sunrise as low-level moisture transport commences ahead of a
disturbance passing to the northwest.  It appears the lowest
restrictions will likely be at KBWG where fuel-alternate or even
high-end IFR conditions may be possible, with KLEX and KSDF expected
to see high-end MVFR cigs/vsbys.  Admittedly, this is not a high
confidence scenario.

For tomorrow, the low cloud deck may once again hang on into the
late morning or early afternoon hours, which may once again limit
afternoon instability.  Therefore, will continue with VCSH wording
and not include any VCTS mention until trends in cloud cover and
resultant instability are better ascertained.  Winds will be out of
the SSW around 10 knots tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 282316 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 282316 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 282316 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 282316 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
616 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...CLW
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 282310
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THIS
EVENING MAINLY AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. EXPECT THESE
SHOWERS SHOULD WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST...HAVE ALIGNED T AND TD
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING...MAINLY AFFECTING SME AND POSSIBLY LOZ OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POSSIBLE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS
AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID
ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT THE SME SITE FOR LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA
MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 282211
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282211
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282211
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 610 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Have adjusted the forecast to reflect the latest radar trends.  A
few showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across the region,
having been forced by a differential heating/convergence boundary
from an MCV across southern KY.  Trends over the past hour have been
for this activity to weaken as it loses what little instability it
had to work with due to the low-level clouds we had through much of
the day.  Therefore, will adjust pops to where precip is currently,
but quickly trend the forecast dry by later this evening.  The rest
of the forecast looks in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281930 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN THROUGH THE AREA -
AWASH IN A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS. ALOFT - AN MCV IS MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY. THIS IS SUPPORTING
A LARGE AREA OF THICK CIRRUS IN THE FORM OF DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THIS HAS ALSO SUPPORTED AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN BENEATH THE THICK CLOUDS...LIKEWISE SUPPRESSING
TEMPERATURES KEEPING THEM IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ON THE FRINGES OF
THIS AREA...THE CLOUDS ARE MORE CUMULIFORM AND TEMPERATURES HAVE
RISEN INTO THE 80S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN SLOW GOING...
DESPITE AN UPTICK IN THE STRENGTH OF SHOWERS ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THROUGHOUT THE AREA...WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WHILE DEWPOINTS HOLD IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MINOR CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY
DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION. THESE HEIGHTS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT A TROUGH
DOES APPROACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVELS ON THE WX
THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE MINIMAL IN COMPARISON TO THE DIURNAL
CYCLE. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM12.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THE MCV MAY
SUSTAIN SOME SHOWERS BENEATH IT THROUGH THE NIGHT. PATCHY FOG...
LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE ANTICIPATED AGAIN TONIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT
SEE GOOD CLEARING AND THAT HAD PICKED UP SOME RAIN EARLIER IN THE
DAY. FOR FRIDAY THE ONLY LIMITATION ON THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING
WILL BE A LACK OF A TRIGGER AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY AROUND. THE NAM12 AND ECMWF/GFS DO SHOW A WAVE OF
CONVECTION PASSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
HELPING TO JUSTIFY OUR HIGHER POPS FORECAST THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT...EXPECT PARTIAL CLEARING AS THE CONVECTION
WANES ALLOWING FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
LINGER INTO DAWN.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY. MADE SOME MINOR RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES
FOR LOWS AND HOURLY TEMPS EACH NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV AND WETTER MET GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A MORE EXAGGERATED DIURNAL CYCLE IN
THE HOURLY POPS/WX GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

RIDGING WILL DAMPEN OUT A BIT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR LESS ACTIVITY WILL BE SATURDAY...BUT
BY SUNDAY...FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE VIRTUALLY OVERHEAD AND WEATHER
LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN  DEVELOP
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SOME WEAK IMPULSES KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. BY WEEKS END...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
BACK OVER THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AGAIN ON THE INCREASE.
HOWEVER...AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BENEATH THE RIDGE AS WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH 80S
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60S. NO REAL
SIGNS OF ANY COOL DOWNS ON THE HORIZON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KPAH 281929
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LOW VFR TO MVFR CU DECKS DIURNALLY ENHANCED WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...BUT IS NOT A
HIGH PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
WRITING. OTHERWISE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SCT-BKN RANGE...AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE LATE BUT AGAIN...IT`S MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION
THIS WRITING. STORM CHANCES APPEAR AGAIN TMRW AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND INTRODUCE VICINITY MENTION WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 281929
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LOW VFR TO MVFR CU DECKS DIURNALLY ENHANCED WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...BUT IS NOT A
HIGH PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
WRITING. OTHERWISE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SCT-BKN RANGE...AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE LATE BUT AGAIN...IT`S MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION
THIS WRITING. STORM CHANCES APPEAR AGAIN TMRW AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND INTRODUCE VICINITY MENTION WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 281929
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LOW VFR TO MVFR CU DECKS DIURNALLY ENHANCED WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...BUT IS NOT A
HIGH PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
WRITING. OTHERWISE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SCT-BKN RANGE...AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE LATE BUT AGAIN...IT`S MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION
THIS WRITING. STORM CHANCES APPEAR AGAIN TMRW AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND INTRODUCE VICINITY MENTION WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 281929
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
229 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VISIBLE SHOTS SHOW MILKY SKY WITH CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENTS ENHANCED
DIURNALLY THIS PM. ISOLATED CONVECTION STARTING TO DEVELOP AROUND
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF FA. WILL CARRY SLGT CHANCE POPS
INTO THE NIGHT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. WHERE SKIES CLEAR...LIGHT
WIND REGIME MAY AGAIN LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE PATCHY FOG LATE
TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MORNING...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

A MORE SUMMER LIKE FEEL OF TEMPS IN THE 80S/60S WILL CONTINUE THRU
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM/OPEN
SECTOR FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE EXCEPTION IS
WITH ITS GRADUAL PASSAGE THRU THE FA SAT NIGHT WE WILL SEE THE
BEGINNING OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WORKING INTO OUR NORTHWEST...WHERE
UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING
WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN HAVING A GREAT TIME DECHIPERING WHAT EXACTLY TO DO WITH THIS
FRONT. SOME MODEL RUNS TAKE IT SOUTH OF THE AREA...SOME KEEP IT IN
SOME PART OF THE REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST TRENDS PUSH THE
FRONT RIGHT ON THROUGH THE AREA THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH THE POSITION AND
MOVEMENT OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT REMAINS IN QUESTION...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IS MESSY ENOUGH THAT WE WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME
SORT OF LOW POP THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL STALL OUT DIRECTLY OVER
THE CWA THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z WEDNESDAY. NOW...DURING THAT TIME...THE
TROUGH ACTUALLY WEAKENS AND A CLOSED LOW SYSTEM FORMS...BUT OF
COURSE MODELS THIS FAR OUT ARE NOT AGREEING ON WHEN AND WHERE THAT
WILL REALLY PLAY OUT. HOWEVER...THERE SEEMS TO BE ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRESENT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD TO CONTINUE TO WARRANT LOW
CHANCE TYPE POPS. ANOTHER QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY TO PLACE THE
HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THIS JUNCTURE...IT WOULD
PROBABLY MAKE MORE SENSE TO BROADBRUSH THE POPS SOMEWHAT UNTIL
MODELS HAVE WORKED OUT SOME OF THE FINER DETAILS. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST TRENDS DO INDICATE THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE CWA. WILL HEDGE IN THAT DIRECTION.

COOLER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS. WITH ALL
THE CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS...IT WILL PROBABLY END
UP BEING RATHER COOL...BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...ALL IT WOULD TAKE
WOULD BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS FOR A SITE TO SEE WARMER
READINGS. THERE IS A SLOW MODERATION BACK TO NORMAL TEMPS BY THE END
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

LOW VFR TO MVFR CU DECKS DIURNALLY ENHANCED WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY OCCUR...BUT IS NOT A
HIGH PROBABILITY ENOUGH TO WARRANT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
WRITING. OTHERWISE SOME MID OR HIGH CLOUD BASES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE SCT-BKN RANGE...AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF PATCHY FOG IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE LATE BUT AGAIN...IT`S MARGINAL ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MENTION
THIS WRITING. STORM CHANCES APPEAR AGAIN TMRW AND WILL GO AHEAD
AND INTRODUCE VICINITY MENTION WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE IN
THE PLANNING PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281849
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281849
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
249 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Cloud cover from this morning, and lingering into the afternoon, has
helped squelch development of precip so far today, despite
pronounced vortmax crossing the Lake Cumberland region this hour.
Still, have some breaks in the clouds now forming, and with that
temperatures are starting to rise. Still have the best chance for
measurable precip close to the vortmax, but would not be surprised
to see an isolated storm pop up anywhere with the heating.

We should get a break from the rain this evening, but low-level
moisture likely will bring another round of at least patchy fog
overnight. Deeper southerly flow late tonight through Friday will
mean continued cloud cover and additional showers/storms, with the
latter starting anytime during the day. Given the uncapped
environment and higher moisture content, still not worried about
severe threats at this point.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The latest model guidance continues to be in generally good
agreement with the pattern through the long term period. An upper
level trough over the Plains will slowly work its way eastward and
become a cutoff low by early next week. It will work its way very
slowly across the deep south through mid week. Chances for showers
and storms will continue off and on through the forecast period.

The most widespread precipitation is expected through the weekend. A
cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday. A secondary
low will form along this front and move northwest across central
Kentucky Saturday night. The front will continue to sag southward on
Sunday, but looks to stall out somewhere near the KY/TN border.
Showers and storms will develop Saturday in the very moist and
unstable environment. A few of the storms could become strong to
marginally severe. Very heavy rainfall is likely with these storms
given moisture will be pooling south of the frontal boundary. Storms
will continue to be likely into the overnight period and Sunday as
the front moves through.

Monday through the middle of the next work week we will see more of
a diurnal pattern to the storms. Storms look to initiate in the
afternoon with daytime heating and diminish in the evening as the
sun sets. These storms will be more scattered in nature, so it will
not rain everywhere every day despite precipitation in the forecast
every day.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday in the wake of the front,
temperatures will rise back into the mid 80s by the middle of the
week with lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY
IN CHECK OVER THE AREA LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA...ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...THE HRRR DOES SEEM OVERDONE WITH
ITS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY AND POPS FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEN SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY
IN CHECK OVER THE AREA LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA...ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...THE HRRR DOES SEEM OVERDONE WITH
ITS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY AND POPS FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEN SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281830 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING MCV LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY HAVE KEPT THE INSTABILITY
IN CHECK OVER THE AREA LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE
CWA SO FAR. HOWEVER...ON THE FRINGES OF THE AREA...ALONG THE
VIRGINIA BORDER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT BETTER
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PARTS
OF THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...THE HRRR DOES SEEM OVERDONE WITH
ITS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS. HAVE TWEAKED THE SKY AND POPS FOR THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND TRENDS...AS WELL AS THE T/TD GRIDS. THESE UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEN SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AROUND MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN STARTING AT MIDDAY FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT FOG FOR THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD STAY CLEAR. DID ADD A TEMPO FOR SOME MVFR VIS WITH BR AT
THE SME SITE FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAIN FROM THE PAST DAY MAY
CONTRIBUTE ENOUGH EXTRA MOISTURE FOR ITS DEVELOPMENT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 281739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 135 PM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Enough moisture around to provide for some flying restrictions
during this period. Showers have stayed limited to south central KY,
mainly east of BWG, and that should remain this afternoon. Have
removed storm wording from all of the terminals given the late start
to warming so far today. With sunset, we should see a reduction in
ceilings again and possibly to vsby through daybreak Friday. Winds
should pick up from the south during the day Friday, with enough
moisture for some showers even during the morning hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281430 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 281430 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY LYING WEST TO EAST
THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITHIN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE. ALOFT -
HEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL...BUT THE REMAINS OF A
SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING. ON SATELLITE...A DECK OF FAIRLY THICK AND OPAQUE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OUR WESTERN FLANK AND SPREADING EAST INTO
THE JKL CWA. THESE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE INSTABILITY
BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD COUNTER ACT THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID LEVEL WAVE WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LATER IN THE
DAY WHEN THE CLOUDS START TO THIN AND BREAK UP...AND INSOLATION
MORE EFFECTIVELY MAKES IT TO THE SFC. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES
ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 60S UNDER THE CLOUDS...TO THE LOWER AND
MID 70S WITH SUNSHINE. DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MOIST LOWER
AND MIDDLE 60S THROUGH THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE
GRIDS WITH THIS IN MIND...INCLUDED A DELAY TO THE RENEWAL OF
CONVECTION. ALSO FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF
ZONES...MAINLY TO DROP MENTION OF EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 840 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Complicated forecast for today as multiple factors will affect if we
get storms. On radar now are some light rain showers over the Lake
Cumberland area extending south into TN. These are ahead of a
slow-moving shortwave over the TN Valley. In addition we have a weak
front located near the Ohio River, with a theta-e ridge axis ahead
of it. There are no showers associated with this feature, instead we
have low clouds. These clouds and some patches of fog should limit
destabilization. Thus have trimmed back pops for the morning hours
along the Ohio River , but kept values in the 30-40 range for south
central KY.

This afternoon`s development will depend on how quick the clouds
erode. Still think the best shot will be with the slow-moving
shortwave, so have continued the focus in the southern part of the
area. Though any clearing up north could lead to isolated storm
development. Storm motion should be fairly slow given forecast
soundings with little flow in the low levels. Not worried about any
kind of flood issues with the slow flow however as precipitable
waters are not too high. Also, we should not have any issues with
severe weather.

Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Updates........RJS/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 281230
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
730 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...BUT COVER SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED AFT PATCHY MORNING
FOG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 281230
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
730 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...BUT COVER SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED AFT PATCHY MORNING
FOG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 281230
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
730 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...BUT COVER SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED AFT PATCHY MORNING
FOG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 281230
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
730 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 726 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY...BUT COVER SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED AFT PATCHY MORNING
FOG.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 281057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281057
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOME OF OUR FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT
ARE MOVING THROUGH MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES HAVE PRODUCED CLOSE TO
AN INCH OF RAIN OVER THE PAST HOUR TO 90 MINUTES. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ANOTHER AREA OF
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA IN BY 12Z THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH OUT THE
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO POP UP AROUND THE AREA AS WELL. GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH ANY RAIN SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE
EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS MORNING. THE LATEST OBS DATA HAS BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS...BUT
NOTHING THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. SYM WILL BE SOCKED IN BY LIFR FOG
THROUGH 12 OR 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE BREAKING OUT OF THE MUCK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT THESE SHOULD STAY WIDELY
SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT BE WORTH MENTIONING IN THE TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 6Z
TONIGHT. BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z ON FRIDAY FOG MAY AFFECT THE ONE OR
MORE OF THE AIRPORTS...BUT THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...SO FOG HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE 6-12Z PORTION OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281057
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Convection has remained limited to south central KY this morning so
will remove POPs elsewhere before 12Z.  Still think we`ll see an up
tick in shower/storm activity by mid to late morning as the upper
level disturbance moves in from the south.  Patchy fog with some
locally dense patches have been observed.  Visibilities have varied
greatly this morning with isld reports of dense fog.  Therefore will
issue an SPS for patchy dense fog for the next few hours.  Fog
should improve fairly quickly this morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 650 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the day.  With plentiful
sfc moisture from recent rains and very light or calm sfc winds, fog
and low stratus have developed across the region but overall don`t
appear to be affecting the TAF sites as bad as previously thought.
IFR conditions will continue at SDF through the next few hours.
BWG/LEX may go down to MVFR levels briefly this morning.  Conditions
should improve after sunrise, but convection looks to fire along the
aforementioned synoptic features and result in isld-sct coverage of
showers/storms mainly from just after sunrise through late
afternoon.  It`s difficult to pinpoint an exact window of
opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a t-storm today so will
stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves throughout the day.
Although flight conditions could be reduced to MVFR/IFR in any
t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should generally return to VFR
after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be ENE at BWG/SDF and more
SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 280839
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 280839
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED OUT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SLIDES ACROSS THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER. RESIDUAL TROUGHING WILL SWING FROM THE ROCKIES TO ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...KEEPING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BETTER CHANCE POPS WILL
OCCUR FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AND DAMPENS WITH TIME. BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A CUTOFF LOW WILL EMERGE AND DRIFT ALONG THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH RIDGING RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND MIDDLE APPALACHIANS. FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...THIS WILL MEAN LESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...BUT STILL
NOT TOTALLY RAIN-FREE. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE OFFERED A REASONABLE
START TO THE POPS. DID NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE GIVEN VALUES DURING
THE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING...HOWEVER DID CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A
BIT DURING THE OVER-ACTIVE MODELED NIGHTTIME PERIODS WITH LESS
FORCING AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PASSING COLD
FRONT COOLS THINGS DOWN A FEW DEGREES TEMPORARILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. READINGS WILL THEN RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS RIDGING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280707
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Early this morning a weak sfc front was just to our NW while an
upper level impulse was approaching from the southern states.  While
we sit in between these features during the pre-dawn hours, patchy
fog is expected to develop.  Plentiful low level moisture and very
light or calm winds will help fog formation, however, a thick upper
level cloud deck should work to prevent fog from becoming dense in
nature.

As the sfc front and upper level impulse move into the Ohio Valley,
shower/storms will begin to fire over our region around sunrise.
Isld to sct convection will stick with us throughout the day as we
remain in a moist, unstable environment.  Weak trigger mechanisms
and overall wind profiles suggest that convection should remain
below severe limits today.  Still some strong storms with small hail
and strong wind gusts may occur especially this afternoon when CAPE
levels and lapse rates are more favorable.  With slightly less
coverage of precip compared to yesterday, temps should warm into the
low to mid 80s.

Tonight models indicate convection will diminish after sunset with a
dry period expected during the overnight hours.  Models indicate a
weak impulse may bring renewed convection to the area just before
sunset.  Still others would suggest that partial clearing combined
with light winds and moist low levels would again be good for light
patchy fog formation.  Low temps tonight should range through the
60s.

More isld-scattered storms are expected Friday as a weak impulse
pushes through the region.  Again no organized severe weather threat
is expected.  High temps for Fri should be in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z GFS and ECMWF models are in reasonable agreement with
synoptic pattern in extended forecast, indicating unsettled weather
with periodic showers and thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing
over the central Plains on Friday is forecast to evolve into a
slow-moving cutoff low over the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late
this weekend and through the early and mid parts of next week. Ahead
of this feature will be a persistent feed of low-level moist
southerly air over much of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including
central Kentucky and south-central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley including Kentucky over the
weekend and early next week. Scattered showers Friday night will
transition to more numerous showers and thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon through Sunday night. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest
coverage of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and north
of the front is favored at night, and along and south of the front
is favored during the day within greater low-level instability. This
includes much of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but a few strong pulse storms are possible from time to
time especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level inflow suggest periods
of heavy rainfall from many of the storms over the weekend.

During the early and mid parts of next week, the surface front is
forecast to move back north and/or become more ill-defined. With a
persistent moist atmosphere and the mid-level low/trough still to
our south and/or west, more showers and thunderstorms are expected
but overall coverage should diminish with the activity becoming more
diurnally-driven, i.e., a relative max in activity in the afternoon
and early evening, with spotty showers overnight. In this regime,
there could be patchy fog during the overnight periods as well. By
late next week, the evolution of the low/trough becomes tenuous, so
expect lower chances of precip. Overall, there will be a chance of
precip every day of the extended but it won`t rain everywhere
everyday.

Temperatures over the weekend will be dependent on the frontal
position, as there should be a decent difference north to south
across it. Temperatures will also be modulated by where precip is
most prevalent. Next week, daytime temperatures should be seasonal
in general with values modulated by several opportunities for precip
and ample cloud cover. Temperatures at night should remain mild in
most areas.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS REGARDING TIMING OF SHOWER
AND STORM INITIATION EARLY TODAY...OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE...AND
DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AFTER DARK THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCES HAS POPS RANGING FROM NOTHING TO 20 TO 30
PERCENT DEPENDING ON WHICH FORECAST SITE YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.
THE ONLY FIRM TRIGGER FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY LOOKS TO BE A
WEAKENING AND ALREADY ILL DEFINED COLD FRONT. WITH A WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AND SOME LIFT STILL AVAILABLE
ALONG THE FRONT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WHILE PEAK
HEATING IS STILL OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RUN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TOMORROW DUE TO RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS THAT IS SETTING ON TOP OF US. HIGHS TODAY
TOMORROW SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE MAXING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280543
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN
FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COULD AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME. THE FOG
SHOULD ONLY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN MOST INSTANCES...BUT THERE
COULD BE BREIF OCCURRENCES OF IFR OR LOWER FOG SUCH AS IS
OCCURRING AT SME AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. THE
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY EARLIER TONIGHT
HAS PRETTY MUCH COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THIS SAME TREND.
THEREFORE...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS
MORNING WERE REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS THAT HAD BEEN TAKING SHAPE WEST OF THE AREA HAS
NEARLY COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
IN FACT...BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIPITATION FREE UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BKN TO OVC CIGS OF AROUND 5K WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 15 OR
16Z AT THE TAF SITES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ON TAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS
FOR NOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280516
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
116 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

Latest 00z model runs are in reasonable agreement with overall
synoptic weather pattern in extended forecast, indicating a
generally unsettled period with off and on showers and
thunderstorms. General mid-level troughing over the central Plains
on Friday is forecast to evolve into a slow-moving cutoff low over
the mid-to-lower Mississippi Valley late this weekend and through
the early-to-mid parts of next week. Ahead of this feature will be a
persistent feed of low-level moist southerly flow over much of the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, including central Kentucky and south-
central Indiana.

As the mid-level low closes off to our west, it will induce a weak
surface low to our west along a cold front which will sag slowly
southeast into the lower Ohio Valley over the weekend and early next
week. Scattered showers Friday night will become more numerous
Saturday through Sunday, with a diurnal maximum and a relative
nocturnal minimum (but still scattered) in convective activity
expected in general. Difficult to pinpoint where greatest coverage
of rainfall will be over the weekend, but along and just north of
the front at night, and along and south of the front during the day
within greater low-level instability.

At this time, wind fields/system dynamics do not support much severe
weather, but some strong pulse storms are possible from time to time
especially over central Kentucky south of the front during the
afternoons. However, persistent precipitable water values of 1.5-1.8
inches, deep warm cloud depths, moist model soundings, and moisture
replenishment courtesy of continued low-level southerly inflow
suggest periods of heavy rainfall over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 115 AM EDT Thu May 28 2015

The main TAF challenges for this issuance will include low cigs/fog
early this morning and timing the next round of showers/storms
through the region later today.  Currently a sfc front was
approaching from the NW with an upper level impulse pushing north
from TN.  Our region remains in between these features attm, but
each will infringe upon the area throughout the TAF period.  With
plentiful moisture from rains early today and sfc winds expected to
turn light or calm during the pre-dawn hours, fog and low stratus is
expected to drop flight conditions to at least MVFR/IFR and possibly
lower.  Flight restrictions will be most severe between 10-13Z this
morning.  Conditions should improve after sunrise, but convection
looks to fire along the aforementioned synoptic features and result
in isld-sct coverage of showers/storms mainly from just after
sunrise through late afternoon.  It`s a little difficult to pinpoint
an exact window of opportunity for the TAF sites to receive a
t-storm today so will stick with VCTS and see how convection evolves
throughout the day.  Although flight conditions could be reduced to
MVFR/IFR in any t-storm, prevailing flight conditions should
generally return to VFR after sunrise this morning.  Winds will be
ENE at BWG/SDF and more SSE at LEX during the daylight hours today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE GRIDS. ALSO REDUCED
POPS SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA.
OTHER THAN THAT...UPDATED T AND TD GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT
OBS AND SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
851 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 845 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Last of the convection has exited the Bluegrass. To our north and
west, isolated to scattered storms along the cold front in central
Indiana are not organizing and do not appear able to push any
boundaries south. Therefore have continued the trend of backing off
overnight POPs. Most of the area will remain dry, with south central
and east central Kentucky having the best chance for a stray shower
or T-storm.

Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 280005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
805 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED IN THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER SHOWERS SO HAVE ADJUSTED
T AND TD GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
FOR TONIGHT. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED THIS
EVENING. EXPECT ANY REMAINING SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO...ONLY IMPACTING LOZ...JKL AND SYM TAF SITES. ONCE THE
SHOWERS END...EXPECT CIGS TO RISE AND VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY DROP
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AT THE JKL...LOZ...SME AND SJS TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 272350
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 272350
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 272350
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 272350
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 272350
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
650 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KLMK 272344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 735 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms just pulling out of LEX at the moment, leaving
behind mid-level and cirrus debris. Expect a VFR evening with light
south winds, but the main concern overnight will be fog potential.
In this pattern we`ve had a hard time getting the winds to
completely decouple at night, but with the proximity of the front
there is a better chance tonight. Add in wet ground from the rain
this afternoon, as well as the already tight T/Td spreads, and we
have multiple factors coming together for restricted visibility.
Some discrepancy in model guidance with the GFS MOS suggesting dense
fog while the usually pessimistic NAM MOS shows stratus. For now
will go with MVFR visibilities developing after midnight, and TEMPO
groups for a brief IFR restriction around daybreak. High confidence
that LEX will go IFR at least briefly, but moderate at best for SDF
and BWG.

Once we start to mix out late Thursday morning, VFR conditions will
return with sct-bkn diurnal cu and light southerly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 272228
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
628 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 615 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Complex of storms that formed this afternoon, and produced isolated
strong to severe winds, has pushed south and east. Trailing
stratiform rain still lingers across the Bluegrass. Models had
advertised convection developing along the cold front but between
the front hanging farther north than expected, and the atmosphere
being worked over, that has not happened. Updating the forecast to
cut back on POPs for tonight. Believe most of the night will be dry,
but with the juicy air mass still in place it`s hard to rule out a
stray shower. Will also include patchy fog after midnight, mainly
east of I-65, given wet ground and small T/Td spreads.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 272014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. HOWEVER...IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...AND THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED MAINLY
CHANCE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A
LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS
EVENING WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS...THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CAP PRESENT
IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD AGAIN POP UP.
LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE DRY AIR ALOFT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...AND THE FACT THAT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WILL BE ALMOST
NONEXISTENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA. ANYTHING WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY NOT MOVE OVER MUCH REAL ESTATE BEFORE THE
CELLS COMPLETE THEIR LIFE CYCLES. FOR THESE REASONS...POP WILL
STILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY 30-40 PERCENT...LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OUT WITH LOSS OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON
THURSDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 414 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AN ARE OF TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTH
INTO THE PLAINS AND RIDGING EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED EAST OF NEW
ENGLAND. A WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTH FROM AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO.

THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK FROM THE PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN POSSIBLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN THERE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ITS EAST AND NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND LOWER OH VALLEY AND RIDGING ALSO
BUILDS AT LEAST BRIEFLY EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE
OF A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SFC THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE OH VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...
GRADUALLY SCAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND THEN
BECOMING RATHER DIFFUSE BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITHOUT A CLEAN FRONTAL PASSAGE ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AT ANY TIME DURING THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY DURING EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR SATURDAY OPTED TO GO A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODEL BLEND FOR
POPS AS THE ECMWF HOLDS THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND
WEST FOR THAT PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WE HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT THE
POPS A BIT DURING THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS AND THE
MODEL BLEND GENERALLY TEND TO OVERDO CONVECTION THAT IS LARGELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN. WITH THE FRONT OVER THE REGION...THE HIGHEST
POPS...LIKELY WERE USED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A
BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
LINGER. TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN WARM TO NEAR TO IF NOT ABOVE NORMAL
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE RATHER LIMITED
DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY
IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT
HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS
FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN
POP UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT
HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS
FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN
POP UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT
HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS
FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN
POP UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 272000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERTORMS STRETCHED NE/SW THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT
MID AFTERNOON...AND WAS PROGRESSING TOWARD EASTERN KENTUCKY. IF IT
HOLD TOGETHER...IT WILL ARRIVE IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
5 PM. IT IS HEADING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS...SO THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST. HAVE USED CHANCE POPS
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THINKING THAT A LESS
FAVORABLE AIR MASS AND AN EVENTUAL LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING
WILL BRING ITS DEMISE. LATE TONIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH...LIKELY REACHING KENTUCKY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. MODELS SHOW SOME SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIP AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
HAVE USED A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM LIMITING ACTIVITY.

WHAT IS LEFT OF THE DYING FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR MASS AND THE
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT IN THE AREA...SHOWER AND STORM COULD AGAIN
POP UP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KPAH 271938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WE SEE VFR SCT-BKN BASES THRU THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT IS A POSSIBILITY...AND WE`VE
INTRODUCED MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON A TEMPORARY BASIS FOR NOW.
THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DROP
DOWN AND WINDS GOING LIGHT WITH A MOIST BLAYER LINGERING. DIURNAL
CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TMRW BY LATE MORNING IN THE 3-4K FT AGL
RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 271938
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
238 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

MESO ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR LATE DAY CONVECTION TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST...WHERE ONGOING ELEMENTS ARE ADVECTING. VISIBLE
SHOTS/SURFACE PLOT SHOW DRY AIR MIXING INTO THE ALREADY WORKED
OVER AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE...EXPANDING ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND FURTHER UPSTREAM (NORTHWARD/WESTWARD). 88D NOTES SOME
DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...IS JUST NOW GETTING GOING ON THE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH A POP INTO AT LEAST
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

BEYOND THE NEAR TERM...WE SEE AN OPEN/WET SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU THE
ENTIRETY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. AS A NORTHERN STREAM LONG
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX BARRELS ITS WAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR CANADIAN
PROVINCES EN ROUTE TO THE GREAT LAKES...IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER
FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE
RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE
MOVE THRU THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

TEMPS WILL RANGE L-M80S FOR HIGHS AND L-MID60S FOR LOWS AS THE
ATMOS SOUPS UP TO A MORE MUGGY SUMMER LIKE FEEL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

WE CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER WET AS THE FRONT
ENDS UP CROSSES THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. TEMPTED TO GO
HIGHER THAN LIKELY POPS BUT MAY WAIT A BIT LONGER TO RAISE THEM THAT
HIGH. THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

HOWEVER...A FAIRLY POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAD BEEN HAVING A HARD TIME DECIPHERING
HOW TO HANDLE THE PATTERN BEYOND SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE SIGNAL HAS
NOW BECOME RATHER GOOD THAT THE WEEKEND WILL BE PRETTY WET.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE PRETTY DECENT OVER THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
FAIRLY HIGH PW VALUES AND STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...NOTHING
RIGHT NOW POINTS TO ANY REAL FLOODING CONCERNS OTHER THAN LOCALIZED
PROBLEMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF THE THREAT FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING GROWS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY ERRATIC WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEHRE HAVE BEEN A MYRAID OF DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS THE
PAST FEW DAYS...INCLUDING A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING IN OUR VICINITY.
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY. SO...IT WOULD
BE PRUDENT TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME TYPE OF CHANCE GOING WITH THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINITY.

WE SHOULD SEE A PRETTY GOOD DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY...AS 850 MB FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPPER PATTERN
EVOLVES...TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL (LOW 80S) FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WE SEE VFR SCT-BKN BASES THRU THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT IS A POSSIBILITY...AND WE`VE
INTRODUCED MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS ON A TEMPORARY BASIS FOR NOW.
THIS SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DROP
DOWN AND WINDS GOING LIGHT WITH A MOIST BLAYER LINGERING. DIURNAL
CU WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TMRW BY LATE MORNING IN THE 3-4K FT AGL
RANGE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KLMK 271855
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271855
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have line of storms along the I-65 corridor this hour. The northern
part of the line has been the strongest at this point, with the
southern more widespread and less organized. Thinking at this point,
after collaboration with SPC, is that most of the storms the rest of
the afternoon will be below severe limits, so holding off on issuing
a watch at this time. DCAPE`s are not as impressive over the eastern
part of the area.

The next round of storms for the day will depend on how quickly we
recover from this first round. Areas along and north of the I-64
corridor will have the best chance to fire again before sunset, but
looking upstream there is a dearth of low clouds over southern
Illinois. Will limit late afternoon chances to under 40% for now.
Should these late storms fire up, we could additionally see some fog
form overnight, thanks to lighter winds and the extra influx of
moisture.

For Thursday, there will be a little less moisture in place across
the region, but more importantly there should be less of a trigger.
Thus storms that develop should not become organized, though an
isolated wind/hail threat isn`t out of the question. Have gone with
40% or less coverage mainly across south central KY, in the area
with best moisture and isolated coverage in the north. Highs
Thursday should be a touch warmer than today, given the less
coverage of storms. For lows, went pretty much with persistence.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 248 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

An unsettled pattern will continue through the long term period with
rounds of showers and storms expected through the forecast period.
Friday will be quite warm with highs in the mid 80s. The region
should become unstable by afternoon with scattered storms
developing. These should continue into the overnight period.

A stronger shortwave will approach from the west on Saturday. In
addition, a cold front will begin to move in from the northwest by
late in the day. With better forcing aloft and moisture pooling
ahead of the front, storm coverage will increase with a 60-70%
chance for most of the region.

The front will move through most of the region by Sunday night, but
then looks to stall out near the KY/TN border. It will then move
back north as a warm front early next week. Given daytime heating
and multiple boundaries in the vicinity, storm chances will continue
into the first half of the work week. These look to be scattered in
nature with potential lulls in the activity during the overnight
periods. There will be a slight cool down in the wake of the front
with highs reaching into the mid 70s to around 80 on Sunday and
Monday. Temps will warm a bit back into the low 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 271749
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS ENTERING CENTRAL KY AND MIDDLE TN
FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS OVER EASTERN KY ARE
A BIT LOWER THAN AT PLACES FURTHER WEST...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW
WELL THE STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED AS THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD.
HOWEVER...BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT HAVE USED AN INCREASE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE JKL FORECAST DURING THE
LATE DAY AND EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CLOUDS CONTINUED TO BLANKET MOST PLACES AT MID MORNING...BUT
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW HOLES. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE
FACT THAT THE MID DAY SUN ANGLE IS NEAR THE PEAK FOR THE
YEAR...THINK THAT WE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO ERODE THE SOLID SKY
COVER INTO SCATTERED CLOUDS. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND A LACK OF A
TRIGGER/FOCUS MECHANISM PREVENTING ANY SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

A BIT OF A CHALLENGING FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12 AND
OTHER SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME COMING INTO
AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS ARE PRODUCING VERY LITTLE QPF THROUGH 0Z
FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL IS QUITE A BIT WETTER THAN EITHER OF
THE OTHER TWO MODELS. THE ISSUE APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF A GOOD
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TODAY. THE MOS GUIDANCE IS
ALSO PRODUCING ONLY VERY LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS
THE BOARD FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THAT ALL BEING
SAID...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MORNING HOURS TODAY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. ALSO WENT AHEAD
AND KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS THE
MODELS DO TRY TO BRING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY TO THE
CHANCE RANGE...AS THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO MOVE SOME SORT OF WEAK
BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MOIST AIR STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA...WE COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE
UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.

TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE
WARMER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE AIR MASS WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THE
EXPECTED SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL MOST
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHTS
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM OUT IN THE BALMY LOW TO MID
60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING GRADUALLY
BREAKING DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALONG THE GULF COAST
AS DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS ACROSS THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHERN
U.S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS TO SLOWLY WORK
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION. THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE DID COME IN A BIT LEANER ON THE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES LOOK A BIT MORE
DAMPENED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HAVE STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
GIVEN POPS...HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT A BIT MORE DURING
THE NIGHTTIME PERIODS...SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND THEN COOL A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

CEILINGS HAD RISEN AND BEGUN TO BREAK UP AT MID DAY...ALLOWING
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS HEADING EAST INTO CENTRAL KY AT TAF ISSUANCE
COULD MAKE IT INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA OF EASTERN KY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COULD BRING SUB VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUDING IT IN
THE FORECAST. VALLEY FOG MAY ALSO BRING LOCALIZED IFR LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT UNLESS PRECIP OCCURS...THE FOG
SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE AT TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KLMK 271732
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271732
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271732
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271732
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
132 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1205 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Well-defined line of storms, forming along an outflow boundary from
previous storms over Missouri, is forming new cells that are about
to move into our forecast area. Have changed pops to account for
this line surviving into our area and then a brief lull/lower chance
period before scattered pops return again later this afternoon. The
latter period think the best chance would be along/north of the I-64
corridor. Had a nickel-sized hail report with a cell in PAH`s area,
and still think quarters are possible with the stronger cells as the
afternoon rolls on. DCAPE`s are up as well, so gusty winds will be a
factor also.

Updated 945 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Storm complex to our west is fluctuating. At times it looks like it
is declining then new cells are forming along the line. A few of the
mesoscale models had this activity, but most did not. Following
those models that did have the activity, some weaken it and some
maintain it movinng northeast. Given the clear airmass ahead of the
activity, will lean the direction of maintaining it and possibly
allowing new storms to form along the gust front later this
afternoon. SPC mesoanalysis has forecast CAPES to around 2000 this
afternoon, and this is somewhat in line with GFS/NAM/RUC soundings.
The main threats still look to be damaging winds and quarter-sized
hail.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible this Afternoon/Evening...

A few sprinkles were moving east over east central KY early this
morning.  Other than this very light/isld precip, the rest of the
area was dry with skies becoming mostly clear to partly cloudy west
of I-65.  Expect that we`ll continue to see sky cover slowly
decrease through the morning hours especially after sunrise.  Before
sunrise low stratus and light patchy fog will be possible over
portions of south central and east central KY.

The next chance for showers/storms will arrive this afternoon as an
upper level shortwave trough passes through the Midwest.  The latest
NAM/GFS indicate the wave will be stronger and better organized to
our north, but we`ll still see modest forcing and decent low to mid
level flow resulting in around 30-35 kts 0-6km bulk shear.  If skies
go mostly sunny to partly cloudy for a good portion of the morning
and early afternoon as predicted, we`ll likely see a good amount of
sfc based instability build up...around 2000+ j/kg.  Steep low and
mid level lapse rates will exist too.  For these reasons, think that
damaging winds will certainly pose a threat today in storms that get
going in our area especially along and north of I-64 close to the
best forcing from the upper level shortwave.  Hail up to around 1
inch will also be possible.  Boundaries from storms that initiate to
our NNW may also provide a trigger for storms in our area this
afternoon/evening.

Storm clusters should wane and move east of the area by late evening
with only small storm chances for the rest of tonight.

Thursday small chances for showers/storms will continue as we remain
in a moist, unstable environment.  However, an upper level ridge
moving through the area will certainly work to suppress convection
somewhat.  With a weaker flow, would expect isld to sct pulse-like
storms to bubble up in the late afternoon/evening hours Thurs
although some short range models keep us mostly dry Thurs.

Temperatures should be a tad warmer today than yesterday with highs
in the 82-86 degree range.  Lows tonight will remain mild in the
lower 60s.  Highs Thurs will warm into the 84-88 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed May 27 2015

The main focus in the long term is on precipitation chances as a
moist and seasonably warm air mass holds over the lower Ohio Valley.

Thursday night into Friday the synoptic pattern is expected to
feature a longwave trough from the southern Plains through the Great
Lakes while a ridge remains across the Southeast US. The local area
will be on the periphery of both of these features. Models remain
consistent showing that the ridge will build slightly and in the
absence of any shortwave trough, this period is our `driest` with
only slight chances for afternoon and early evening showers/storms.

More synoptic influence and dynamics are expected Saturday into
early Sunday as a shortwave trough, seen currently in water vapor
imagery off the coast of California, treks through the southwest US
and southern Plains. This system will brush our northwest Saturday
afternoon, enhancing mid/upper level lift. Closer to the surface, a
slow moving front will approach as well. Moisture pool and PWATs
climb along/ahead of the front and with the greater lift, expecting
more widespread showers and thunderstorms. 60 to 70 percent POPs
look good at this time.

Model uncertainties and differences arise Sunday into early next
week as to how progressive this boundary pushes south. 27.00z GFS
was the most aggressive, clearing the front through the entire
forecast area Sunday into Monday, while the GEM and ECMWF held it up
right through central KY. Where the front clears through,
north/northeast flow could bring much drier and somewhat cooler air
in its wake, while to the south, the moist/warm air mass will
remain. By Monday night, guidance pulls this front back north,
bringing back the warmer and more moist conditions.

Temperatures through Saturday are expected to be relatively
persistent with highs in the low 80s and lows in the mid/upper 60s.
Sunday onward is less certain, but if/where the front comes through
then cooler temperatures may prevail. For now, a model consensus of
highs in the upper 70s and lows in the 60s seem reasonable.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 130 PM EDT Wed May 27 2015

Have a line of storms approaching SDF and later LEX, then obs
upstream are clear. Have tried to have a window in the forecast with
no VCTS before they return later this afternoon. BWG a little more
unstable with various rounds of storms possible next several hours.
Should the second set of storms hit the terminals around sunset, fog
likely will develop overnight, given expected lighter winds and that
influx of moisture. Thus may have to go more pessimistic with later
forecasts for daybreak Thursday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS






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