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000
FXUS63 KJKL 210536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE TAF SITES AT JKL AND SJS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SYM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH FOG AND AN OVC DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH 7Z OR SO. BASED ON
TRENDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUDS AT SYM
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 8Z...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
BY 9Z. A FEW LOW AND HIGHS CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1236 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

THE TAF SITES AT JKL AND SJS WILL EXPERIENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SYM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
WITH FOG AND AN OVC DECK OF STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH 7Z OR SO. BASED ON
TRENDS OBSERVED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUDS AT SYM
SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 8Z...GIVING WAY TO CLEAR SKIES
BY 9Z. A FEW LOW AND HIGHS CLOUDS MAY MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AROUND 12Z TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 210456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

I got burned by rapid erosion of stratocumulus, so have updated TAF
for KSDF. It`s not altogether unexpected...just put too much faith
in the very narrow saturated layer around 025 AGL, but with no
dynamic forcing, diurnal subsidence prevailed.  KLEX is still on the
edge of this cloud shield. Will hold off there for now, but update
likely there as well, along with tweaks to sky grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Skies have cleared at the TAF sites tonight with just some high
clouds streaming across the region. With clear skies and light and
variable to calm winds some light fog will is expected overnight.
Visibilities should stay mainly in the MVFR range. Winds will be
light through the day out of the E to ESE with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JBS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 210456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

I got burned by rapid erosion of stratocumulus, so have updated TAF
for KSDF. It`s not altogether unexpected...just put too much faith
in the very narrow saturated layer around 025 AGL, but with no
dynamic forcing, diurnal subsidence prevailed.  KLEX is still on the
edge of this cloud shield. Will hold off there for now, but update
likely there as well, along with tweaks to sky grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Skies have cleared at the TAF sites tonight with just some high
clouds streaming across the region. With clear skies and light and
variable to calm winds some light fog will is expected overnight.
Visibilities should stay mainly in the MVFR range. Winds will be
light through the day out of the E to ESE with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JBS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

I got burned by rapid erosion of stratocumulus, so have updated TAF
for KSDF. It`s not altogether unexpected...just put too much faith
in the very narrow saturated layer around 025 AGL, but with no
dynamic forcing, diurnal subsidence prevailed.  KLEX is still on the
edge of this cloud shield. Will hold off there for now, but update
likely there as well, along with tweaks to sky grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Skies have cleared at the TAF sites tonight with just some high
clouds streaming across the region. With clear skies and light and
variable to calm winds some light fog will is expected overnight.
Visibilities should stay mainly in the MVFR range. Winds will be
light through the day out of the E to ESE with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JBS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1156 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

I got burned by rapid erosion of stratocumulus, so have updated TAF
for KSDF. It`s not altogether unexpected...just put too much faith
in the very narrow saturated layer around 025 AGL, but with no
dynamic forcing, diurnal subsidence prevailed.  KLEX is still on the
edge of this cloud shield. Will hold off there for now, but update
likely there as well, along with tweaks to sky grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1153 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Skies have cleared at the TAF sites tonight with just some high
clouds streaming across the region. With clear skies and light and
variable to calm winds some light fog will is expected overnight.
Visibilities should stay mainly in the MVFR range. Winds will be
light through the day out of the E to ESE with mostly clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JBS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS DISSIPATED WHILE SOME LINGERING LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE NORTH IS STILL HANGING AROUND. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR VALLEY TEMPS TO DROP A BIT LOWER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
THE BLUEGRASS COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM DURING THE
DAY HAS KEPT TEMPS DOWN INTO THIS EVENING. SO HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER. HAVE ALSO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS DOWN A
DEGREE FOR TODAY DUE TO THE COOLER START TO THE DAY AND NO
TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY EXPECTED. A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 210310
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 910 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Distinct cloud line following the sharp surface ridge axis this
evening from northeast to southwest across Southern Illinois and
Southeast Missouri. The 5km resolution of the NAM-WRF model
guidance appears to be approximating the persistence of the cloud
line well through the overnight hours. Adjusted temperature and
dewpoint forecast to reflect diabatic variations in
radiation/advective issues under the cloud cover. See some
potential for patchy fog along the cloud edge along the clear sky
side...so added overnight. Not ready to issue any statement until
coverage of light fog becomes more prevalent.

No other changes made beyond first period (tonight) forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210310
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 910 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Distinct cloud line following the sharp surface ridge axis this
evening from northeast to southwest across Southern Illinois and
Southeast Missouri. The 5km resolution of the NAM-WRF model
guidance appears to be approximating the persistence of the cloud
line well through the overnight hours. Adjusted temperature and
dewpoint forecast to reflect diabatic variations in
radiation/advective issues under the cloud cover. See some
potential for patchy fog along the cloud edge along the clear sky
side...so added overnight. Not ready to issue any statement until
coverage of light fog becomes more prevalent.

No other changes made beyond first period (tonight) forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210310
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 910 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Distinct cloud line following the sharp surface ridge axis this
evening from northeast to southwest across Southern Illinois and
Southeast Missouri. The 5km resolution of the NAM-WRF model
guidance appears to be approximating the persistence of the cloud
line well through the overnight hours. Adjusted temperature and
dewpoint forecast to reflect diabatic variations in
radiation/advective issues under the cloud cover. See some
potential for patchy fog along the cloud edge along the clear sky
side...so added overnight. Not ready to issue any statement until
coverage of light fog becomes more prevalent.

No other changes made beyond first period (tonight) forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210310
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
910 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 910 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Distinct cloud line following the sharp surface ridge axis this
evening from northeast to southwest across Southern Illinois and
Southeast Missouri. The 5km resolution of the NAM-WRF model
guidance appears to be approximating the persistence of the cloud
line well through the overnight hours. Adjusted temperature and
dewpoint forecast to reflect diabatic variations in
radiation/advective issues under the cloud cover. See some
potential for patchy fog along the cloud edge along the clear sky
side...so added overnight. Not ready to issue any statement until
coverage of light fog becomes more prevalent.

No other changes made beyond first period (tonight) forecast at
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014


...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

I got burned by rapid erosion of stratocumulus, so have updated TAF
for KSDF. It`s not altogether unexpected...just put too much faith
in the very narrow saturated layer around 025 AGL, but with no
dynamic forcing, diurnal subsidence prevailed.  KLEX is still on the
edge of this cloud shield. Will hold off there for now, but update
likely there as well, along with tweaks to sky grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Low VFR cloud deck roughly N of a LEX-SDF-EVV line starting to erode
in the west but cigs lowering to MVFR in the east. This pattern
matches up well with NAM SFC-850 RH, so will loosely base timing of
SDF and LEX cigs on this, with improving conditions at SDF but
lingering MVFR cigs though at least 06Z at LEX. Only fly in the
ointment is near-SFC RH of 90% at both sites lingering through the
night, which could keep MVFR level cigs lingering. Winds at both
sites NNE under 5 kts through the overnight hrs.

With CLR-SCT clouds at BWG, MVFR vsbys are a possibility, and with
winds light and variable there, will continue going forecast of MVFR
vsbys in fog developing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JBS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JBS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 210145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014


...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

I got burned by rapid erosion of stratocumulus, so have updated TAF
for KSDF. It`s not altogether unexpected...just put too much faith
in the very narrow saturated layer around 025 AGL, but with no
dynamic forcing, diurnal subsidence prevailed.  KLEX is still on the
edge of this cloud shield. Will hold off there for now, but update
likely there as well, along with tweaks to sky grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Low VFR cloud deck roughly N of a LEX-SDF-EVV line starting to erode
in the west but cigs lowering to MVFR in the east. This pattern
matches up well with NAM SFC-850 RH, so will loosely base timing of
SDF and LEX cigs on this, with improving conditions at SDF but
lingering MVFR cigs though at least 06Z at LEX. Only fly in the
ointment is near-SFC RH of 90% at both sites lingering through the
night, which could keep MVFR level cigs lingering. Winds at both
sites NNE under 5 kts through the overnight hrs.

With CLR-SCT clouds at BWG, MVFR vsbys are a possibility, and with
winds light and variable there, will continue going forecast of MVFR
vsbys in fog developing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JBS
Short Term.....ZBT
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JBS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THIS EVENING APPEARS TO BE WITH CLOUD COVER
THAT IS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A DISTURBANCE
THAT IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEHIND THIS TO THE WEST...WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO INTERIM
AFFECT THE HOURLY TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL ADJUST
ACCORDING. ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH...WHERE THIS AREA WILL LIKELY
CLEAR OUT BEFORE AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY DO. SO MADE A
FEW TWEAKS TO HOURLY TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS GOOD TO GO AND A NEW ZFP WILL NOT BE REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 706 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MOST PLACES TONIGHT WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...SOME LOWER CEILINGS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWA BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH.
HAVE PUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH AND CLEARING OUT THE AREA IN
THE SOUTH AS THIS CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT TO THE EAST. AT SME AND
LOZ...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THEM CLEARING OUT THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS DAWN. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KPAH 202332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KPAH 202332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
532 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 532 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Although a little westward progression of the cloud cover may
still clear out things for KCGI, the late day clearing for this
area appears to have stopped for now and a resumption of upper
MVFR ceilings will likely stay in place for the forecast period.
There is even a period after midnight that light drizzle may be an
issue.

Otherwise, VFR conditions should persist for the KPAH, KEVV, KOWB
TAF sites through the end of the forecast period under light
southeast winds. Some diurnally induced MVFR ceilings was briefly
included during the morning hours at KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith





000
FXUS63 KLMK 202318
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Low VFR cloud deck roughly N of a LEX-SDF-EVV line starting to erode
in the west but cigs lowering to MVFR in the east. This pattern
matches up well with NAM SFC-850 RH, so will loosely base timing of
SDF and LEX cigs on this, with improving conditions at SDF but
lingering MVFR cigs though at least 06Z at LEX. Only fly in the
ointment is near-SFC RH of 90% at both sites lingering through the
night, which could keep MVFR level cigs lingering. Winds at both
sites NNE under 5 kts through the overnight hrs.

With CLR-SCT clouds at BWG, MVFR vsbys are a possibility, and with
winds light and variable there, will continue going forecast of MVFR
vsbys in fog developing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........JBS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 202318
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Low VFR cloud deck roughly N of a LEX-SDF-EVV line starting to erode
in the west but cigs lowering to MVFR in the east. This pattern
matches up well with NAM SFC-850 RH, so will loosely base timing of
SDF and LEX cigs on this, with improving conditions at SDF but
lingering MVFR cigs though at least 06Z at LEX. Only fly in the
ointment is near-SFC RH of 90% at both sites lingering through the
night, which could keep MVFR level cigs lingering. Winds at both
sites NNE under 5 kts through the overnight hrs.

With CLR-SCT clouds at BWG, MVFR vsbys are a possibility, and with
winds light and variable there, will continue going forecast of MVFR
vsbys in fog developing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........JBS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 202106
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 202106
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 PM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Forecast confidence is relatively good through the short term
period.

Decreasing low level moisture, high pressure at the surface, and
zonal flow aloft are finally taking their toll on the stubborn low
level cloud cover.

These same conditions should produce the opportunity for star gazing
tonight and plenty of sunshine on Sunday, especially east of the
Mississippi river. As is often the case this time of year, the lack
of cloud cover won`t last long.

With the passage of a short wave Sunday night, expect an increase in
cloud cover but no precipitation due to a relative lack of deep
moisture and our being in somewhat of a col between the sub-tropical
jet stream to the southeast and the polar jet stream nosing in from
the plains.

As a storm system develops over the northern plains, a sharp H5
trough extending southwest from it across the central plains will
push a cold front toward our region. This combined with the eventual
merging of the aforementioned jet streams over our area and an
increase of deep moisture will produce increasing precipitation
chances from the west through the end of the period. Models still in
minor disagreement on the exact location of the surface boundary at
the end of the period, but the end result should be nearly the
same.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

Models take a surface low on a similar track but with different
timing Tuesday through Wednesday night.  Models bring the low
northeast across the PAH forecast area Tuesday night, then the ECMWF
tracks the low into the Great Lakes region 6 to 12 hours faster than
the GFS and GEM.  This leads to better confidence in keeping likely
pops across our region Tuesday and Tuesday night, but timing of the
low leads to some uncertainty how quickly colder air will filter
into the region on Wednesday.  Tuesday precipitation will be all
rain, then as temperatures drop off into the middle to upper 30s
Tuesday night, went with a rain/snow mix after 06z Wednesday mainly
across the western two thirds of our counties.  On Wednesday, high
temperatures should be around mid morning, with steady or falling
temperatures in the afternoon.  Continued with a rain/snow mix
across most of our forecast area Wednesday morning, spreading east
across all of our counties Wednesday afternoon.  A little light snow
may linger in our far eastern counties Wednesday night.  Snow
accumulation is not expected at this time.

For Christmas day, conditions should be dry with plenty of
sunshine.  Winds will shift back to the southwest to south, helping
temperatures rebound to near seasonal readings in the 40s.
Moderating conditions will continue into Friday with the breezy
south to southwest winds.  On Friday, GFS and ECMWF take low
pressure system north of our region, dragging a weak cold front
through the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.  Models
generate some light QPF, especially east of the Mississippi river.
Continued with chance/slight chance pops for Friday into Friday
evening, possibly changing to a rain/snow mix if enough moisture
lingers as low temperatures fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Dry and cooler conditions are expected for Saturday as high pressure
builds into the central U.S..

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 306 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST






000
FXUS63 KJKL 202053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WHILE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE ALIGNED
ALONG THE GULF. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND...WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING NOSING IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS ALLOWING
FOR SOME DECENT CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN KY/TN. THIS WILL LIKELY WORK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS
BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-75 AS WELL AS
THE BLUEGRASS SEEING THE COLDER READINGS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RETURNING
TO NEAR SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE...THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BE AMPLIFYING AS DEEPER TROUGHING TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RIDE FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND SOME
INFLUECE FROM A WEAKER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS SURFACE SYSTEM. AS
SUCH...LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ESTABLISHED EARLY ON...WITH SOME
UPPER 20S LIKELY IN THE NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
WARM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT...AS LOW CLOUDS INCREASE
QUICKLY...AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ENGAGE. WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO THREATEN SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY TOWARDS
DAWN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY AS WE MOVE INTO CHRISTMAS
WEEK. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NE
CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO LESSEN THE
INFLUENCE ON EASTERN KY. THEREFORE THINKING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN SE FLOW WILL
SEE A CONTINUED WARMING TREND AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL GENERALLY MAKE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.

NOW THE SYSTEM MOST HAVE BEEN WATCHING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPLICATIONS FOR CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PLANS. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN SETTING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AS WE MOVE INTO TUESDAY. POPS
WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS STREAM INTO
THE REGION. ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCONTINUITY IN
THE MODELS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
DEVELOPS A CUTOFF LOW AT THE 500MB LEVEL THAT TRACKS N INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER THE
ECMWF KEEPS THE CUTOFF ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST BUT HAS A SIMILAR
TRACK HOWEVER IT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY WEDNESDAY. GIVEN
THIS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND FOR GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO RESOLVE THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.

SO WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...MUCH OF THE BEGINNING
STAGES OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN AS STRONG JET ENERGY CONTINUES
TO SURGE WARM AND MOIST AIR UP FROM THE S AND SW ESPECIALLY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY
DO WE GET COLD AIR INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE MOISTURE
IS CUTOFF. THE GFS HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF COLD AIR COMPARED TO THE
12Z ECMWF. COMPARING THE GFS TO PREVIOUS RUNS THE COLDER AIR IS
SLOWER TO MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. EITHER WAY IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY WITH 24 HOUR
HIGHS BEING REACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RIGHT NOW IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SO INITIALLY THINKING THIS CHANGE OVER PERIOD WILL LEAD TO
LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION GIVEN WARMER GROUND TEMPS. THE ISSUE
BECOMES MOVING INTO OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW
FREEZING. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS DO INDICATE ABRUPT DRYING AS
WE MOVE INTO LATER WEDNESDAY THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT MORE OF A WRAP
AROUND SNOW SHOWER SCENARIO BY THIS POINT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO LITTLE
IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS HOWEVER SLICK SPOTS COULD STILL BE A ISSUE GIVEN
THE COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE CAVEAT HERE WOULD BE THE
WINDY CONDITIONS WOULD DRY THE REGION OUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES.
INTO THE REGION

THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIE DOWN BY EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. BOTH THE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO SOME ALIGNMENT IN BRINGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW THE BLEND BRINGING
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KLMK 202031
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Much of the area around SDF/LEX/BWG remains VFR at this hour with
2000-2500 ft MVFR ceilings across southern Indiana and southwest
Ohio. Expecting VFR clouds to persist through the period with
light/variable winds this evening becoming more northeasterly to
easterly overnight. There are some indications that clouds could
scatter out overnight into Sunday morning, especially at BWG. Less
confident at SDF/LEX. If clouds do scatter out, the baggy wind field
and residual low-level moisture could result in light fog at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........ZBT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 202031
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a quasi-zonal upper
level flow east of the Rockies while an active northern and southern
jet moves across the west coast. A few weak shortwaves have been
moving through the flow across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley,
which were responsible for this morning`s light snow. At the
surface, weak high pressure is loosely centered northeast of the
area. Temperatures are running around 5 degrees below mid-December
normals, mainly in the mid 30s to lower 40s.

A dry evening/night is in store for the area with the main forecast
challenge cloud cover. Subsidence in the wake of the departing upper
level shortwave and drier mid levels should keep clouds variable.
Areas along/south of the KY parkways are likely to see more clearing
while southern Indiana locations should be partly to mostly cloudy.
Lows will vary greatly depending on where clear pockets develop, but
are expected to range from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Patchy
light fog may develop across southern/central KY due to the light
wind field, residual low level moisture and expected clearing skies.

For Sunday, much of the day we`ll be under the influence of high
pressure as it slowly moves to the northeast. Plan on light
easterly/northeasterly winds and high temperatures in the mid 40s.
Southeasterly to southerly flow develops Sunday night with weak warm
air advection beginning. Clouds will be on the increase during the
night from south to north and with the boundary layer remaining a
bit more mixed, lows will only fall into the mid/upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 315 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Active Weather Likely Christmas Eve...

Upper pattern will begin to amplify on Monday, and will open the
door for a mild but unsettled first half of the week. Confidence in
the overall pattern is fairly high, but limiting factors are in the
sensible wx impacts on Monday and more in the timing thereafter.

SW flow will deepen on Monday, but the best moisture feed will
remain off to our west. Still could see weak isentropic lift with a
warm advection wing, so will hold onto a slight chance for some
light rain.

Increasing warm advection with POPs continuing to ramp up Monday
night and Tuesday. Leaned on the warmer end of guidance for temps,
and that might not be warm enough. Will need to rely on the onset of
rain and resulting wet-bulb effects to get temps below 50 on Monday
night.

Likely/categorical POPs will run Tuesday into Wednesday, with the
best chances centered on Tuesday night under a strong moisture feed.
New uncertainty with the timing creeps in as the GFS tries to close
off a 500mb low over the southern Plains. This solution also tracks
the deepening surface cyclone right up the I-65 corridor, which
would enhance our chances for thunder. Will not jump on this
solution at this time, but continue to trend slower and therefore
warmer. Net result is temps in the 40s at 12Z Wed, which will be our
Tue night low and Wed high. This moves the window for a rain/snow
changeover more into Wednesday evening, with minor snow accumulation
possible Wednesday night if any snow showers are heavy enough as
Santa makes his rounds.

Precip should cut off before dawn on Christmas Day, with mild and
dry conditions late in the week as progressive upper ridging
dominates. Next system works into the Plains on Friday without
really phasing the northern and southern streams. Will run chance
POPs Friday night into Saturday as the cold front pushes through the
Ohio Valley. Temps close enough to freezing to keep an uncertain
precip type near and north of the Ohio River, but confident in all
liquid farther south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Much of the area around SDF/LEX/BWG remains VFR at this hour with
2000-2500 ft MVFR ceilings across southern Indiana and southwest
Ohio. Expecting VFR clouds to persist through the period with
light/variable winds this evening becoming more northeasterly to
easterly overnight. There are some indications that clouds could
scatter out overnight into Sunday morning, especially at BWG. Less
confident at SDF/LEX. If clouds do scatter out, the baggy wind field
and residual low-level moisture could result in light fog at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201834 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201834 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201834 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 201834 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 134 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO REIGN ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE LIFTING.
CLOUD DECKS WILL RANGE FROM 5-7K FEET AGL THROUGH THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The AVIATION discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

With low level moisture expected to slowly decrease from the west,
low VFR cigs should improve accordingly, especially after 23Z.
Through most of the period, winds will either be calm or light
and variable, then picking up slightly out of the east to
southeast AOB 5 knots toward the very end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 201708
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Main forcing that brought light snow to the area this morning has
moved off into Ohio, so the remainder of the day is expected to be
dry. The afternoon forecast is largely on track, though the
challenge is cloud cover. Models are not handling the low/mid level
moisture very well at all as there is a large, although thin, deck
of clouds upstream. The HRRR seems to have a somewhat decent handle
on the current situation, so trended the forecast in that direction,
but went more pessimistic given current satellite and low sun angle
this time of year. This gives more of an cloudy/overcast afternoon
to the area, though there could be some breaks along/south of the KY
parkways. As a result of the increased clouds, lowered high
temperatures a degree or two.

Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1204 PM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Much of the area around SDF/LEX/BWG remains VFR at this hour with
2000-2500 ft MVFR ceilings across southern Indiana and southwest
Ohio. Expecting VFR clouds to persist through the period with
light/variable winds this evening becoming more northeasterly to
easterly overnight. There are some indications that clouds could
scatter out overnight into Sunday morning, especially at BWG. Less
confident at SDF/LEX. If clouds do scatter out, the baggy wind field
and residual low-level moisture could result in light fog.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201609 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1109 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

RADAR ECHOES ARE WINDING DOWN QUICKLY NOW AS FORCING EXITS OFF TO THE
EAST. ANY REMAINING FLURRIES SHOULD BE DONE BEFORE 1 PM. FRESHENED UP
THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE LATEST TRENDS. A NICE BAND OF CLEARING
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND EXPANDS SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE UPPER HALF OF MISSISSIPPI. THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REMAINS
ON THE FRINGE OF THIS CLEARING AND THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS DO
NOT SHOW THIS CLEARING EXPANDING ANY MORE TO THE NORTHEAST
NECESSARILY. AS SUCH...HAVE A GENERAL THINNING OF THE CLOUD COVER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PER THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE AND INHERITED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
RUNNING A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH. AS SUCH...LOWERED
THE HIGHS A BIT...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 30 NORTH OF
I-64...TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUIET CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
JKL..SYM...AND SJS THROUGH AROUND 15Z TODAY. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6 AND 10K WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WHOLE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY AFTER 0Z WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201528
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Main forcing that brought light snow to the area this morning has
moved off into Ohio, so the remainder of the day is expected to be
dry. The afternoon forecast is largely on track, though the
challenge is cloud cover. Models are not handling the low/mid level
moisture very well at all as there is a large, although thin, deck
of clouds upstream. The HRRR seems to have a somewhat decent handle
on the current situation, so trended the forecast in that direction,
but went more pessimistic given current satellite and low sun angle
this time of year. This gives more of an cloudy/overcast afternoon
to the area, though there could be some breaks along/south of the KY
parkways. As a result of the increased clouds, lowered high
temperatures a degree or two.

Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201528
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Main forcing that brought light snow to the area this morning has
moved off into Ohio, so the remainder of the day is expected to be
dry. The afternoon forecast is largely on track, though the
challenge is cloud cover. Models are not handling the low/mid level
moisture very well at all as there is a large, although thin, deck
of clouds upstream. The HRRR seems to have a somewhat decent handle
on the current situation, so trended the forecast in that direction,
but went more pessimistic given current satellite and low sun angle
this time of year. This gives more of an cloudy/overcast afternoon
to the area, though there could be some breaks along/south of the KY
parkways. As a result of the increased clouds, lowered high
temperatures a degree or two.

Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201528
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Main forcing that brought light snow to the area this morning has
moved off into Ohio, so the remainder of the day is expected to be
dry. The afternoon forecast is largely on track, though the
challenge is cloud cover. Models are not handling the low/mid level
moisture very well at all as there is a large, although thin, deck
of clouds upstream. The HRRR seems to have a somewhat decent handle
on the current situation, so trended the forecast in that direction,
but went more pessimistic given current satellite and low sun angle
this time of year. This gives more of an cloudy/overcast afternoon
to the area, though there could be some breaks along/south of the KY
parkways. As a result of the increased clouds, lowered high
temperatures a degree or two.

Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201528
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Main forcing that brought light snow to the area this morning has
moved off into Ohio, so the remainder of the day is expected to be
dry. The afternoon forecast is largely on track, though the
challenge is cloud cover. Models are not handling the low/mid level
moisture very well at all as there is a large, although thin, deck
of clouds upstream. The HRRR seems to have a somewhat decent handle
on the current situation, so trended the forecast in that direction,
but went more pessimistic given current satellite and low sun angle
this time of year. This gives more of an cloudy/overcast afternoon
to the area, though there could be some breaks along/south of the KY
parkways. As a result of the increased clouds, lowered high
temperatures a degree or two.

Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
827 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201327
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
827 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 815 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Radar returns, automated observations and spotter reports confirm
that the light snow continues across the Louisville metro area and
points north and east. With temperatures remaining in the upper 20s
to around 30, slick spots on untreated roads, particularly bridges
and overpasses could develop. Adjusted forecast grids and continued
SPS for portions of the area.

The main forcing for this activity is an upper level shortwave and
this is rapidly moving out of the area, so I`m expecting this
activity to end west to east over the next few hours.

Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZBT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

A large, solid mass of lower VFR clouds covers the entire region
this morning. It doesn`t look good for them to scatter or clear.
Hopefully, subsidence in the cloud layer will be strong enough to
help the clouds dissipate over portions of the area this
afternoon. In the meantime, would not be surprised to see a few
hours of an MVFR ceiling at KCGI this morning. If clouds do
scatter out or clear late this afternoon, that could set the stage
for fog development. At this time, that seems most likely at KEVV.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201132
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS AND THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT
TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
IN OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THAT PAST HOUR OR SO. SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND SHOULD CONTINUE
OFF AND ON THROUGH AROUND 15Z BEFORE EXITING THAT PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE THESE
SNOW SHOWERS OCCUR. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTS OF LIGHT SNOW IN
PIKEVILLE DURING THE PAST HOUR. THE NEW ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL ALSO BE UPDATED TO DEAL WITH THE
SNOW UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUITE CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
JKL..SYM...AND SJS THROUGH AROUND 15Z TODAY. A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD COVER BETWEEN 6 AND 10K WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE
WHOLE OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH AROUND 0Z THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY AFTER 0Z WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201051
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
551 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some very light snow or flurries may move through SDF and LEX over
the next couple of hours. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected
through the TAF period. Skies will be cloudy through most of the day
but ceilings should remain mainly VFR. Clouds may begin to scatter
out late this afternoon into this evening. Winds will be light and
out of the north today. They will become variable to calm overnight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201043
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
543 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 542 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Light snow continues across portions of southern IN and north
central KY this morning. Some light accumulations have been reported
on cars and area roadways this morning for this activity. Updated
the grids to reflect current radar trends and issued an SPS talking
about slick spots. Still think most of this activity should move out
of the area by around sunrise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The last of the light snow and sleet will be pushing east out of
the Evansville Tri State in the next hour or so. Have not heard of
any accumulations or impacts. The bigger question going forward is
how long will the lower clouds linger over the region. Looking at
the GFS and NAM RH, it appears that the cloud layer is
substantial and would not likely dissipate on its own. Low-level
winds are weak, so advecting them out of the area does not seem
very likely either.

Made some last minute adjustments to hang onto mostly cloudy
skies through the day over southeast Missouri and southern
Illinois. Undercut guidance a bit in these areas, and leaned
toward the warmer MAV highs in the southeast where some clearing
is forecast.

The model consensus is for the clouds to dissipate heading into
this evening, and with the surface high overhead, it should be a
cold night in most locations. Went close to consensus for lows,
and may have to watch for some fog development, especially where
clearing doesn`t occur until the late afternoon or into the
evening. Did not insert fog into the forecast at this time,
because of uncertainties in the sky cover forecast.

The pesky surface high will begin to loosen its grip on the region
Sunday, allowing a light southeast wind to develop in most
locations. If we get some decent sunshine, we should see highs
closer to the warmer MAV numbers, if not the cooler MET numbers
will be better.

The NAM...GFS and ECMWF have delayed the arrival of increasing low-
level moisture and drizzle potential until early Monday.
Therefore, will not have any mention of precipitation until after
12Z Monday. A decent southeast wind is expected throughout the
area Sunday night, and there will eventually be some increase in
cloud cover late. Therefore, should see lows on the mild side
of guidance.

The ECMWF and GFS continue to differ in timing precipitation
through the area Monday. The GFS is not nearly as wet as the ECMWF
Monday, and I really don`t have a good feel for which model is
better. This is not a high confidence situation due to the rapid
development of the upper trough. The details of QPF are not likely
to be well handled just yet. Left mainly 25-30% PoPs in the
forecast for Monday. Strong south winds will develop Monday, and
that should finally help us to warm up into the 50s, if the clouds
are not too thick or widespread. The consensus of available
guidance should do pretty well for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

The upper-level flow pattern will become much more amplified during
the long term period. The flow pattern will remain very progressive.
The result will be a series of fast-moving fronts and low pressure
systems that will bring changeable weather through the week.

As far as the daily details...
A strong cold front will move east across our region on Tuesday as a
500 mb shortwave digs southward through the Plains. The digging
shortwave will provide plenty of forcing for precipitation along and
ahead of the front Monday night and Tuesday. Lapse rates will
steepen with the approach of the trough, which should cause the
precipitation to take on a showery character. Thunder cannot be
ruled out based on the small elevated capes shown by gfs model
soundings. A southwesterly low level jet of 40 to 50 knots is
indicated by the gfs early Tuesday, which will contribute to weak
instability and increasing low level moisture.

Late Tuesday night and Wednesday, the mid levels will gradually dry
out as the negatively-tilted shortwave trough axis lifts northeast
across the Ohio Valley. The primary surface low will be over the
western Great Lakes region, producing a colder west to northwest low
level flow. There may be a changeover to snow late Tuesday night
before the mid levels dry out. The 00z ecmwf hints at a weak
secondary low forming along the front over central Kentucky late
Tuesday night. If this occurs, it could prolong the precipitation
long enough for some light accumulations of snow in areas east of
the Mississippi River. The 00z gfs and its ensemble mean do not
indicate this secondary low. Regardless of the model of choice,
there will likely be scattered snow showers on Wednesday under the
cold/unstable/cyclonic flow. These could be mixed with rain in
southern areas.

On Christmas eve and Christmas Day, the low-level flow will turn
southwesterly in advance of the next upper trough advancing through
the western states. Christmas Day appears dry and mild, but rather
breezy.

On Friday and Friday night, the model consensus is that another cold
front will move east across our region. This front will be preceded
by showers on Friday, which may change to snow showers before ending
Friday night. The upper-level trough associated with this front
appears weaker than the Tuesday system, so forecast precipitation
chances and amounts are lower.

On Saturday, it appears a surface high will build east across the
Mississippi Valley, bringing colder and drier air.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200833
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200833
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200833
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200833
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
333 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 307 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Some light radar returns continue to show up across southern Indiana
and portions of north central Kentucky this morning associated with
a weak PV anomaly. Some light snow may reach the ground under
the strongest echoes, as it did here at the office. However, the
most that is expected is a very light dusting on elevated surfaces.
This activity will continue to push off to the northeast over the
next few hours and should be out of the area by sunrise.

Clouds will stick around for much of the day but should begin to
clear by late afternoon into the evening. High pressure ridging in
from the northeast will keep the area dry through Sunday. Highs
today will range from the upper 30s in the north to the mid 40s in
the south. Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with highs ranging from the
mid 40s to around 50. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 332 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...

Medium range deterministic guidance continues to be in good
agreement with the overall pattern as head into the late weekend and
into early next week.  The upper pattern at the beginning of the
period will feature a broad trough over the inter-mountain west with
ridging along both coasts.  This will place the Ohio Valley in a
broad southwesterly flow aloft early in the period.  As we move into
Monday, the multi-model consensus continues to suggest that the
ridge over the eastern Pacific will build northward into western
Canada.  As this occurs, the Pacific jet will pound it`s way into
Canada and then drop into the Plains.  This will lead to the broad
trough over the inter-mountain west to deepen and close off by
Monday afternoon.  The trough is expected to deepen further
resulting in cyclogenesis over Texas.  This surface low will deepen
as well as it heads NE into the Ohio Valley by late Tuesday night.

We`ll see dry conditions initially in our region at the beginning of
the period, but rain chances will quickly ramp up on Monday as the
broad southwesterly flow pushes quite a bit of moisture up into our
region.  Precipitable water amounts of nearly 1.25 inches look to
be in our vicinity by Tuesday afternoon which is +2 standard
deviations above normal.  Thus, some of the rainfall could be heavy
at times from Monday afternoon through Tuesday night.  With us
remaining in the southwest flow, temperatures will be rather mild
through this portion of the forecast period.  Lows Sunday night will
drop into the lower-middle 30s with highs on Monday warming into the
lower 50s in the north with lower-middle 50s across the south.
Temps will cool off just a bit Monday night with lows mainly in the
lower-mid 40s.  Tuesday look like to be the mildest day of the
period with highs pushing into the upper 50s.  Given the deepening
system and broad southwesterly flow, these numbers for Tuesday are
probably too conservative, and we may see some lower 60 degree
readings down across southern KY.  Some colder air will start to
wrap in late Tuesday night with lows crashing into the mid 30s in
the west with mid-upper 40s in the east.

Wednesday through Friday...

...Very Active Period of Weather Likely for Christmas Eve and into
early Christmas Day...

Latest long term model guidance has been trending westward with the
overall track of the surface low.  The Canadian GEM has been leading
the pack on the westward shift, and the Euro and GFS solutions have
now trended more west with the low.  By Wednesday morning, low
pressure should be in east-central Kentucky with a rather large
precipitation shield encompassing much of the region.  The pressure
gradient will rapidly increase during the morning hours with
sustained winds ramping up to 10-20 MPH by the early afternoon
hours.  The surface low is expected to rapidly intensify during the
afternoon as it races from east-central KY into western Ontario.
Based on the multi-model consensus, we could see the system deepen
by 20+ millibars within a 24 hour period.  As the low pulls away
from the region, we will see winds shift to the northwest and remain
quite elevated with sustained winds of 10-20 MPH and gusts up to
35-40 MPH.  Thermal profiles are slightly warmer during the day
suggestive that much of the precipitation behind the system will be
in the form of rain.  Highs early in the day will be in the upper
30s in the west to the lower-mid 40s in the east and then fall
during the afternoon.

By Christmas Eve, we will see temperature profiles crash from west
to east resulting in a quick change over to snow showers.  Very
blustery and cold conditions look increasingly likely for Christmas
eve with widespread snow shower activity in progress across the
region.  Model soundings continue to show very steep low-level lapse
rates with plenty of moisture in the ice crystal producing layer.
Thus, some snow showers may capable of producing moderate snow at
times during the evening.  While temperatures drop to near freezing,
there will be an opportunity for some minor accumulations.  Given
the relatively warm ground and recent rainfall, any snowfall
accumulation will be dependent upon the intensity of the snow
showers.

The models continue to trend a little faster with the moisture pull
off to the northeast early Christmas morning.  Current thinking is
that we`ll still have some snow shower activity past midnight, but
then rapidly diminish by sunrise.  The flow aloft looks to quickly
revert back to zonal flow which will likely push some drier air into
the region resulting clearing skies during the day.  Temperatures
will be challenging depending on how fast skies clear.  The clear
trend in the models has been warmer, so we have adjusted
temperatures slightly upwards with highs in the upper 30s in the
north to the lower-mid 40s across the south.

Generally dry conditions are expected for Friday. However, another
quick moving system will be pushing into the region by the late part
of the period.  Temps on Friday may be quite mild within the return
flow regime with upper 40s to lower 50s being possible.  A period of
rain showers looks increasingly likely for Friday night with colder
conditions returning by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200806
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUITE CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200806
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

THE LATEST RUNS OF MOST OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE
FACT THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION IS REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY SO FAR THIS MORNING. SURFACE OBS FROM
AROUND THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN SHOWING NO MEASURABLE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...BUT NO MUCH MORE THAN THAT THUS FAR. WITH THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY PULLING OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND WITH NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ANY POINT DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD OR DURING THE DAY TODAY. THAT
BEING SAID...HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM NOW THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY QUITE A BIT...AND HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA PRECIP
FREE BY 18Z. THE ONLY REASON EVEN LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE LEFT IN
THE FORECAST IS THE FACT THAT A NUMBER OF PRECIP TYPE ECHOES ARE
STILL SHOWING UP ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE AREA. ALSO...THE
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME
MEASURABLE PRECIP COULD REACH THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
WILL GO WITH THIS THINKING FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE THE
FORECAST BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT IF THINGS DO NOT PAN OUT AS PLANNED.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY DUE TO
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL...AS EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW SETS UP DOWNSLOPE WARMING ACROSS THE AREA AND CLOUDS THINS OUT
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER LOW. HIGHS ON SUNDAY COULD TOP OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW READINGS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 50 NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE BORDER AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN STILL EXPECTED THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK. IN
FACT...FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING NORTHEAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK. NAM REMAINS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF PRECIPITATION. STILL NOT
CONVINCED WE WILL OVERCOME THE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THUS...HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. GFS
SEEMS TO BE CATCHING ONTO THE DOWNSLOPING THE BEST...ALTHOUGH THIS
MAY BE DUE TO THE FACT IT DOES NOT CONTAIN AS MANY SHALLOW LAYERS AS
THE NAM DOES. REGARDLESS...THE PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
PRECIPITATION AND IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER WITH CHANCES MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS
MILDER CONDITIONS SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW ONLY STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD...LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY. MUCH MILDER AIR WILL ALSO
SPREAD NORTHWARD. THIS WILL SET UP A FEW VERY MILD DAYS FOR MID TO
LATE DECEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON MONDAY AND AROUND 60 BY
TUESDAY. GUIDANCE IS HIGHER WITH TEMPERATURES INTO TUESDAY...BUT
OPTED TO STAY JUST UNDER THESE NUMBERS AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PUSH
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS IT QUICKLY
DEEPENS. LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS SLOWED EVERYTHING DOWN A BIT INTO THE
DAY WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER EVOLUTION
WITH THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A VERY STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. STRONG FORCING WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST. THE STRONG DYNAMICS ALONE COULD SUPPORT SOME THUNDER
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE IT
OUT FOR ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE AND SEE IF MODELS MIGHT SHOW MORE
SUPPORT IN THE NEXT FEW RUNS. GOING TO BE QUITE WINDY AS WELL
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS. SOME WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 OR 40 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE. STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT (AROUND 50) AS WE SHOULD STAY WELL MIXED AHEAD OF
SUCH A STRONG FRONT. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR EARLY AS THE
FRONT WILL BRING CRASHING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A
SECOND WAVE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. THE COLD AIR WILL BRING A
TRANSITION OVER SNOW AS WE HEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...IF SNOWFALL RATES CAN GET GOOD ENOUGH...WE COULD SEE A
LIGHT COATING BY LATE IN THE DAY IN SOME AREAS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH
MODELS ARE SHOWING A FASTER EXIT OF THE MOISTURE...SO THE WINDOW FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT BIG. THUS...ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LIKELY UNDER AN INCH...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE
HIGHER RIDGES WHERE AN EARLIER TRANSITION WILL BE POSSIBLE.

BY CHRISTMAS...RIDGING SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA...SETTING UP A
QUITE CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE LOW 40S. OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE BY
FRIDAY...BUT THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
KENTUCKY AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
THIS WILL ALSO MEAN MILDER WEATHER RETURNS FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BEFORE A RETURN TO COLDER WEATHER BY NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200607
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
107 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS HOLDING TRUE SO FAR
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON THE RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
RADAR...HOWEVER...AM HOPEFUL THAT WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND
OR SNOW TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT A LOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEW POINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200607
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
107 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST HOURLY OBSERVATIONAL
DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS. THE FORECAST IS HOLDING TRUE SO FAR
WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. THE LATEST SURFACE OBS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND
ANYWHERE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. BASED ON THE RETURNS SHOWING UP IN
RADAR...HOWEVER...AM HOPEFUL THAT WET BULBING WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN AND
OR SNOW TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT A LOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEW POINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEW POINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 106 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

TAF FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION ONSET
NEAR LOZ AND SME AND THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT DOES
FORM. BASED ON SURROUNDING OBS AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA...IT APPEARS
THAT MVFR CONDITIONS WILL THE WORST WE SEE AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sate Dec 20 2014

Light radar returns have begun to spread across the area from the
west. While much of this is not reaching the ground, a few
flurries/light snow will be possible across the area overnight. Also
have seen a few reports of sleet from just south of the KY border in
TN, so went ahead and added sleet into the forecast over south
central KY. Neither the snow or possible sleet should have any
negative impacts overnight.

Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sate Dec 20 2014

Light radar returns have begun to spread across the area from the
west. While much of this is not reaching the ground, a few
flurries/light snow will be possible across the area overnight. Also
have seen a few reports of sleet from just south of the KY border in
TN, so went ahead and added sleet into the forecast over south
central KY. Neither the snow or possible sleet should have any
negative impacts overnight.

Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sate Dec 20 2014

Light radar returns have begun to spread across the area from the
west. While much of this is not reaching the ground, a few
flurries/light snow will be possible across the area overnight. Also
have seen a few reports of sleet from just south of the KY border in
TN, so went ahead and added sleet into the forecast over south
central KY. Neither the snow or possible sleet should have any
negative impacts overnight.

Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200517
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1217 AM EST Sat Dec 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Sate Dec 20 2014

Light radar returns have begun to spread across the area from the
west. While much of this is not reaching the ground, a few
flurries/light snow will be possible across the area overnight. Also
have seen a few reports of sleet from just south of the KY border in
TN, so went ahead and added sleet into the forecast over south
central KY. Neither the snow or possible sleet should have any
negative impacts overnight.

Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200447
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200447
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200447
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200447
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1147 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1145 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

The main challenge for this TAF period will be overnight with the
potential for MVFR ceilings. An upper level disturbance will
continue to cross the area tonight. The atmosphere is beginning to
saturate from the west and light returns can be seen on radar.
Ceilings should lower at all sites overnight. However, whether they
will drop below 3000 ft or remain scattered at that level remains a
bit in question. Have kept things optimistic and VFR at this time.
With this system, BWG and SDF may see some light snow/flurries, but
it is not expected to cause visibility restrictions. Winds will be
light through this TAF period. Clouds are expected to start to clear
late in the afternoon into the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 945 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Updated aviation section.


UPDATE Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

A few sprinkles/flurries/sleet are possible out of VFR/MVFR
clouds at KCGI/KPAH overnightbut should no affect vsbys. Cigs
will drop to IFR with MVFR vsbys between 11z-17z, improving to VFR
after 19z. At KEVV/KOWB, VFR conditions will drop to MVFR after
11z, improving back to VFR after 15z. At all sites, winds will be
from the northeast to east at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE CLOUD COVER FINALLY
STARTING TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK RADAR RETURNS
FINALLY MAKING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE FORECAST
TO INCREASE THE CLOUD COVER FOR THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE
ONLY OTHER FACTOR THAT NEEDED ADJUSTED WAS THE TEMPERATURES. STILL A
FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND TILL A BIT LATER IN THE
NIGHT HAS RESULTED IN SOME OF THE VALLEYS DROPPING OFF A BIT LOWER
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT. WITH THIS...SNOW FROM THE
INCOMING SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE
AFTER DAWN HOURS. THIS PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT SO
ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL BE A DUSTING AT MOST. AS OF 0330Z...IN
WESTERN KY...PRECIP IS DEVELOPING A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND MOVING
NORTHEAST...AT THIS POINT...NOT ALOT OF THAT IS REACHING THE SURFACE
AND MODELS STILL HAVE THIS ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT BEFORE IT MAKES IT
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT IN
THE NORTH BUT THIS AREA OF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE MONITORED. A NEW ZFP
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200154
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200154
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200154
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200154
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200154
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200154
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 854 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Forecast is on track this evening although did make a few minor
tweaks. A southern stream storm system will largely pass by to our
south and east through the overnight, with just enough moisture to
squeeze out some very light snow across our southern counties.
Additionally, a narrow batch of light snow/flurries could fall along
the Ohio River as just enough deep moisture pools ahead of a weak PV
anomaly. Was reluctant to add this mention as it will mainly be
falling out of mid deck. Nevertheless, upstream obs in the Mo
Bootheel are picking up precipitation so will mention a slight
chance after Midnight. Perhaps a sprinkling of very light snow could
dust vehicles and elevated surfaces, but no impacts are expected
otherwise.

Temperatures are running a couple degrees cooler than anticipated so
updated grids to reflect latest trends. The column does look cold
enough for all snow so will not mention a rain/snow mix. Updated
products already out.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200028
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 200028
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
628 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Some returns on radar around KPOF in association with a s/wv
moving east across the region early this evening. Likely some
minimal flurries/light snow/light sleet that shouldn`t amount to
anything. Added slight chance PoPs to cover and used scattered
flurries type wording for the southern 1/3 of the area through the
early morning. Rest of the forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KJKL 192340
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 192340
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

SO FAR THIS EVENING THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE
HOW FAR TEMPS WILL FALL IN THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM TRACKING TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KY MOVE OVER THE AREA. THIS OCCURRENCE WILL
LIKELY CAUSE TEMPS TO BECOME STEADY AND HOLD NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOR LOWS OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THESE LOW TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON TRACK BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPS ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP TOWARDS DAWN. THIS EVENINGS UPDATE WILL NOT
REQUIRE A NEW ZFP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

TAFS...FOR TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WILL NOT CONTAIN FORECASTS BELOW
MVFR BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE CHALLENGING. MVFR CLOUD COVER TO THE
NORTH IN OH IS EVER SO SLOWLY CREEPING TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF SYM AND SJS BUT COULD CREEP SOUTH A BIT IF THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER STREAMING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS ANY SLOWER TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA. FOR NOW MOST PLACES WILL BE VFR OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS. TOWARDS DAWN...MAINLY JKL...LOZ...AND SME WILL
SEE MVFR CLOUD COVER DUE TO PRECIP SKIRTING ALONG THE KY AND TN
BORDER AND EAST INTO EXTREME EASTERN KY. MOST PRECIP SHOULD STAY OUT
OF THE AREA BUT HAVE PUT VCSH IN MOST TAF SITES FOR THE CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. UNLESS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES FURTHER
NORTH...MOST PLACES WILL BE MVFR IN THE SOUTH AND VFR IN THE NORTH.
ANY LOW CLOUD COVER WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 192304
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 192304
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 604 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Expecting mainly VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites,
although do have a few concerns for MVFR vis/ceilings after
midnight. Will watch a southern stream system slide by to our
southeast tonight and tomorrow, however measurable precipitation
should miss all sites. Can`t rule out a few flurries or brief period
of very light snow after Midnight as thermal profile may saturate
enough ahead of a weak mid level disturbance. Won`t mention at this
time, but will continue to monitor.

The other concern will be for potential MVFR ceilings and perhaps
reduced visibilities in BR/HZ. Time heights/soundings continue to
indicate low level moisture trapped below 2500 feet. Additionally, a
persistent deck of fuel-alternate stratocu remains just to the north
of SDF/LEX. Will stay optimistic that only a Sct deck will develop
by dawn at these sites, however do expect a BKN ceiling at BWG
around dawn. Otherwise, expect a very light N or NE wind overnight,
continuing into Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 192054
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF








000
FXUS63 KJKL 192054
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF









000
FXUS63 KLMK 192012
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Clear slot that developed this morning is being pinched by a low
strato-cu shield pinwheeling out of Ohio. Fuel-alternate ceiling has
come back into LEX, while the deck has remained scattered at SDF and
BWG. Fairly extensive 4000 foot deck is maintaining a VFR ceiling at
BWG.

Expect the lowest clouds to scatter and/or lift early this
afternoon, putting all 3 terminals back in VFR. As the low gets more
organized along the Gulf coast, expect the ceilings from BWG to
spread north into SDF and eventually LEX. Snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out especially in BWG, but low-level dry air will limit the
impact even if it does happen. If anything, with light winds and an
air mass that has been rather stagnant for a solid week,
visibilities could very well go MVFR in haze/mist for a few hrs
early Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 192012
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Clear slot that developed this morning is being pinched by a low
strato-cu shield pinwheeling out of Ohio. Fuel-alternate ceiling has
come back into LEX, while the deck has remained scattered at SDF and
BWG. Fairly extensive 4000 foot deck is maintaining a VFR ceiling at
BWG.

Expect the lowest clouds to scatter and/or lift early this
afternoon, putting all 3 terminals back in VFR. As the low gets more
organized along the Gulf coast, expect the ceilings from BWG to
spread north into SDF and eventually LEX. Snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out especially in BWG, but low-level dry air will limit the
impact even if it does happen. If anything, with light winds and an
air mass that has been rather stagnant for a solid week,
visibilities could very well go MVFR in haze/mist for a few hrs
early Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 192012
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Clear slot that developed this morning is being pinched by a low
strato-cu shield pinwheeling out of Ohio. Fuel-alternate ceiling has
come back into LEX, while the deck has remained scattered at SDF and
BWG. Fairly extensive 4000 foot deck is maintaining a VFR ceiling at
BWG.

Expect the lowest clouds to scatter and/or lift early this
afternoon, putting all 3 terminals back in VFR. As the low gets more
organized along the Gulf coast, expect the ceilings from BWG to
spread north into SDF and eventually LEX. Snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out especially in BWG, but low-level dry air will limit the
impact even if it does happen. If anything, with light winds and an
air mass that has been rather stagnant for a solid week,
visibilities could very well go MVFR in haze/mist for a few hrs
early Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 192012
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Southern stream disturbance remains quite suppressed as it pushes
east across Texas, with minimal surface reflection along the
Louisiana Gulf Coast and a precip shield still struggling to spread
north of Interstate 40. After a decent window of sunshine over parts
of central Kentucky today, clouds will fill back in this evening.
However, any precip tonight will be minimal and limited to south
central Kentucky.

Soundings appear just cold enough for snow, but precip chances will
be limited to 20-30% and QPF will be quite light. Overnight timing
and air temps near freezing will further mitigate the impact of snow
accumulations that will be less than a half inch. Best chance of any
accumulation is near Lake Cumberland, and that`s still not much.

This system will scoot off to the east Saturday morning, with zonal
flow aloft and a NE-SW oriented surface ridge remaining across the
Ohio Valley. Model guidance seems quick to scour out the low clouds,
but given recent trends this seems a bit optimistic. Max temps
Saturday afternoon could be tricky depending on how much clearing
occurs, so will go just under the cooler NAM MOS out of respect for
the seemingly endless cloud cover.

Saturday night will be a few degrees cooler than tonight, and if
skies do manage to clear mid 20s certainly aren`t out of the
question.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

An active, changing weather pattern next week looks to bring a host
of forecast challenges, including precipitation chances/timing/type,
winds and temperatures.

Sunday - Tuesday:

The 19.00z deterministic guidance is in good agreement that Sunday
the upper level pattern will feature a broad longwave trough across
the central Plains with a strengthening 300 mb jet coming into the
Pacific Northwest. The results in some weak downstream ridging
across the Ohio Valley and with surface high pressure across the
mid-Atlantic, seasonable temperatures and dry conditions are
expected. Highs 42-48, coolest across southern Indiana. Guidance has
slowed and shifted further south the system for Sunday night
considerably, so POPs were adjusted down and confined mainly to the
southeast forecast area. Lows 35-40.

By Monday, as the main northern stream energy comes into northern
Plains, an upper level shortwave pinches off and deepens. Ridging
ahead of this trough builds across the area and weak ripples in the
flow are expected to ride through the periphery of this trough,
which will keep rain chances in the forecast. Southerly flow in the
low levels will pull up Gulf moisture with dewpoints climbing into
the 40s. This allows the air mass to become increasingly more moist
through Tuesday as the trough to the west deepens further. In fact,
PWATs increase to 1.15 to 1.25 inches Tuesday afternoon, which is
roughly +2 standard deviations above normal. Additionally, very warm
air surges into the area ahead of the cold front and highs Tuesday
could reach 60 in the south with mid 50s elsewhere on Tuesday.

The 19.12z guidance trended westward with the surface low track, but
a time analysis shows the models really are struggling where exactly
the surface low begins to deepen. Once it lifts toward the Great
Lakes Tuesday evening, colder air pushes into the region behind the
cold front. However, soundings show that the surface to 850 mb
temperatures remain sufficiently warm enough to keep most of the
precipitation in liquid form. It`s not until late Tuesday night that
profiles would support snow, but by then a lot of the moisture/lift
would have exited the area. At this point, continued the rain/snow
mix across the area Tuesday night.

Christmas Eve - Christmas Day:

As the weather system deepens across the Great Lakes region, the
main story for southern Indiana and central Kentucky will be the
blustery winds, noticeably colder conditions and threat for snow
showers Christmas Eve. As the pressure gradient tightens, sustained
west/northwest winds could approach 20 mph with gusts over 30 mph
possible. Plan on highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and combined with
the wind, it`ll feel much colder.

There is likely to be a good fetch of wrap around moisture combined
with a few shortwaves in the cyclonic flow aloft. This environment
would result in wrap around snow showers Wednesday afternoon and
night. Soundings show steep lapse rates, good saturation through the
atmosphere and plenty of low-level lift. Boundary layer temperature
profiles suggest precipitation would fall as snow. A model consensus
of high chance to low likely POPs looks good at this point. It
remains too early to speculate on snow amounts, but there is a
chance for minor/light accumulations Christmas Eve across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky.

For Christmas Day, the upper level flow may become more zonal which
would give the area a seasonable, dry day with a fair amount of
sunshine. However, this depends on how quickly the upper low over
the Great Lakes weakens or departs. For now, kept slight chances of
snow showers across the northeast forecast area with highs ranging
from the upper 30s to mid 40s, or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Clear slot that developed this morning is being pinched by a low
strato-cu shield pinwheeling out of Ohio. Fuel-alternate ceiling has
come back into LEX, while the deck has remained scattered at SDF and
BWG. Fairly extensive 4000 foot deck is maintaining a VFR ceiling at
BWG.

Expect the lowest clouds to scatter and/or lift early this
afternoon, putting all 3 terminals back in VFR. As the low gets more
organized along the Gulf coast, expect the ceilings from BWG to
spread north into SDF and eventually LEX. Snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out especially in BWG, but low-level dry air will limit the
impact even if it does happen. If anything, with light winds and an
air mass that has been rather stagnant for a solid week,
visibilities could very well go MVFR in haze/mist for a few hrs
early Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191932 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 191932 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 191932 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool, breezy day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 191928
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191928
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191928
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191928
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
128 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

The latest 12z modeling continues all model previous trends with a
southward shift in the pressure system`s track tonight. That
means, the same as it has meant each day... i.e. less and less of
a chance of measurable pcpn for the PAH FA. So much so in fact,
we`ll probably eliminate measurable Pops from the forecast. This
appears to be collaborating well with southern/eastern neighbors
likewise downgrading pops to slgt chance mentions.

Satellite/surface obs do show low clouds/fog advecting
northeastward and we`ll make some mention of that into SEMO, again
collaboratively matching LSX/SGF, where it occurred last night as
well. Don`t think we`ll see vsbys to warrant headline, but it`s
something to monitor.

The remainder of the weekend then looks seasonally normal with
highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s or 30s. We`ll hold off on the
Sun night pcpn chance for now, given both the GFS and the
typically wet NAM suggest no qpf into the area thru 12z Monday.
Final call to be collaborated.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

We continue to watch the evolution of a shortwave trough that will
originate from northeast Montana late in the weekend. A closed upper
level low will eventually develop as the system moves southeast.
There continues to be timing issues as models try and resolve the
progression of this system as it matures. Monday is looking drier
and drier but cannot rule out a small chance for rain. However, the
better chances look to arrive on Monday night. But again, models are
having a tough time resolving any energy rotating around what will
become, a very large upper low.

Yesterdays runs showed Monday night into Tuesday being the main time
frame for precip. The 00Z/12Z GFS still shows this to be the case
along with the 12Z GFS ensembles. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF show the
sfc cold front moving through Monday night/Tuesday morning as well.
But the 00Z/12Z ECMWF shunts most of the moisture/precip north of us
and develops another low to the south of us, which brings us better
chances for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night as the low moves
northeast in the Appalachains. The GFS leaves us fairly dry Tuesday
night however, after the frontal passage, except for maybe some
lingering light rain/flurries.

The forecast for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, really depend on
what this upper low decides to do. Every model run has shown a
somewhat different solution. However, the overall consensus
indicates that after the main sfc front passes through, the upper
level trough moves into the region bringing colder weather. So, it
will be a cloudy, cool day with possible periodic light snow
showers. Depending on the strength and timing of any possible waves
rotating around this monster low, we could see varying intensity to
these snow showers, meaning some places could end up getting some
accumulation.

The upper low should move far enough east by Christmas Eve night,
that we should see improvements though and a tapering off of any
activity. For Christmas Day, we should see sunshine and warmer
temperatures as the upper flow becomes more zonal as an upper level
ridge to our west dampens as it tries to build eastward. The weather
for Christmas Day night and the day after Christmas once looked
kinda messy with another frontal passage. But the latest GFS shows
the passage pretty dry. We`ll see...

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 100 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Mass of lower MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys perched to our south/west
will stream in tonight, so anticipate deteriorating conditions in
that regard, as the night wears on. Pcpn, however, should largely
hold off as it is shunted south and east of the terminals, with
the increasingly more southern system track. Conditions should
begin to improve later in the planning period thru the day tmrw,
as the weather system tracks away and high pressure at the surface
gradually increases its strength, and push of drier air thru the
atmospheric column.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191845 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND SKY COVER
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO NUDGED HOURLY TEMPERATURES
PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 191657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1157 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

A narrow swath of dry 850mb air is oriented NW-SE across the Ohio
Valley, providing at least a brief window of sunshine for parts of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main short-term challenge
is the southern stream system still taking shape along the Gulf
coast, and just how far north it will be able to produce any precip
tonight.

Still looks like a narrow window for light snow, mainly from 06-12Z
across south central Kentucky. This continues to look like a
low-probability and low-impact event, as POPs are limited to 20-30,
precip type should be all snow, and QPF is quite meager. If
anything, the current forecast is a bit generous, but will not pull
back any further until the rest of the 12Z model runs come in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Clear slot that developed this morning is being pinched by a low
strato-cu shield pinwheeling out of Ohio. Fuel-alternate ceiling has
come back into LEX, while the deck has remained scattered at SDF and
BWG. Fairly extensive 4000 foot deck is maintaining a VFR ceiling at
BWG.

Expect the lowest clouds to scatter and/or lift early this
afternoon, putting all 3 terminals back in VFR. As the low gets more
organized along the Gulf coast, expect the ceilings from BWG to
spread north into SDF and eventually LEX. Snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out especially in BWG, but low-level dry air will limit the
impact even if it does happen. If anything, with light winds and an
air mass that has been rather stagnant for a solid week,
visibilities could very well go MVFR in haze/mist for a few hrs
early Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 191657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1157 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

A narrow swath of dry 850mb air is oriented NW-SE across the Ohio
Valley, providing at least a brief window of sunshine for parts of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main short-term challenge
is the southern stream system still taking shape along the Gulf
coast, and just how far north it will be able to produce any precip
tonight.

Still looks like a narrow window for light snow, mainly from 06-12Z
across south central Kentucky. This continues to look like a
low-probability and low-impact event, as POPs are limited to 20-30,
precip type should be all snow, and QPF is quite meager. If
anything, the current forecast is a bit generous, but will not pull
back any further until the rest of the 12Z model runs come in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1155 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Clear slot that developed this morning is being pinched by a low
strato-cu shield pinwheeling out of Ohio. Fuel-alternate ceiling has
come back into LEX, while the deck has remained scattered at SDF and
BWG. Fairly extensive 4000 foot deck is maintaining a VFR ceiling at
BWG.

Expect the lowest clouds to scatter and/or lift early this
afternoon, putting all 3 terminals back in VFR. As the low gets more
organized along the Gulf coast, expect the ceilings from BWG to
spread north into SDF and eventually LEX. Snow or flurries can`t be
ruled out especially in BWG, but low-level dry air will limit the
impact even if it does happen. If anything, with light winds and an
air mass that has been rather stagnant for a solid week,
visibilities could very well go MVFR in haze/mist for a few hrs
early Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

A narrow swath of dry 850mb air is oriented NW-SE across the Ohio
Valley, providing at least a brief window of sunshine for parts of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main short-term challenge
is the southern stream system still taking shape along the Gulf
coast, and just how far north it will be able to produce any precip
tonight.

Still looks like a narrow window for light snow, mainly from 06-12Z
across south central Kentucky. This continues to look like a
low-probability and low-impact event, as POPs are limited to 20-30,
precip type should be all snow, and QPF is quite meager. If
anything, the current forecast is a bit generous, but will not pull
back any further until the rest of the 12Z model runs come in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

A narrow swath of dry 850mb air is oriented NW-SE across the Ohio
Valley, providing at least a brief window of sunshine for parts of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main short-term challenge
is the southern stream system still taking shape along the Gulf
coast, and just how far north it will be able to produce any precip
tonight.

Still looks like a narrow window for light snow, mainly from 06-12Z
across south central Kentucky. This continues to look like a
low-probability and low-impact event, as POPs are limited to 20-30,
precip type should be all snow, and QPF is quite meager. If
anything, the current forecast is a bit generous, but will not pull
back any further until the rest of the 12Z model runs come in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

A narrow swath of dry 850mb air is oriented NW-SE across the Ohio
Valley, providing at least a brief window of sunshine for parts of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main short-term challenge
is the southern stream system still taking shape along the Gulf
coast, and just how far north it will be able to produce any precip
tonight.

Still looks like a narrow window for light snow, mainly from 06-12Z
across south central Kentucky. This continues to look like a
low-probability and low-impact event, as POPs are limited to 20-30,
precip type should be all snow, and QPF is quite meager. If
anything, the current forecast is a bit generous, but will not pull
back any further until the rest of the 12Z model runs come in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

A narrow swath of dry 850mb air is oriented NW-SE across the Ohio
Valley, providing at least a brief window of sunshine for parts of
southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main short-term challenge
is the southern stream system still taking shape along the Gulf
coast, and just how far north it will be able to produce any precip
tonight.

Still looks like a narrow window for light snow, mainly from 06-12Z
across south central Kentucky. This continues to look like a
low-probability and low-impact event, as POPs are limited to 20-30,
precip type should be all snow, and QPF is quite meager. If
anything, the current forecast is a bit generous, but will not pull
back any further until the rest of the 12Z model runs come in.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO
VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. TO THE SOUTH A WEAK LOW IS FOUND IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LOCALLY...LOW CLOUDS PLAGUE MUCH OF THE
CWA MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS...BENEATH ARRIVING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 20S
WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO FINE TUNE THE
SKY COVER AND ALSO THE HOURLY T/TD ONES PER THE LATEST OBS...
TRENDS...AND BCCONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
734 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 733 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING THAT CLOUD COVER IS FINALLY STARTING TO BREAK UP A BIT ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA WAS INGESTED
INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS AND FRESHEN UP THE
DATA. ASIDE FROM THAT NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE OR NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area will
even see measurable snow. All in all, tonight`s system looks very
minor and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A
few flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Much of the
area will be covered with VFR ceilings, but partial clearing is
possible over the KEVV and KOWB areas by late morning and afternoon.
Winds at all sites will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area will
even see measurable snow. All in all, tonight`s system looks very
minor and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A
few flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Much of the
area will be covered with VFR ceilings, but partial clearing is
possible over the KEVV and KOWB areas by late morning and afternoon.
Winds at all sites will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area will
even see measurable snow. All in all, tonight`s system looks very
minor and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A
few flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Much of the
area will be covered with VFR ceilings, but partial clearing is
possible over the KEVV and KOWB areas by late morning and afternoon.
Winds at all sites will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
545 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 545 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area will
even see measurable snow. All in all, tonight`s system looks very
minor and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A
few flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Much of the
area will be covered with VFR ceilings, but partial clearing is
possible over the KEVV and KOWB areas by late morning and afternoon.
Winds at all sites will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191132
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191132
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191110
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191110
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Thin strato-cu will trend towards scattering out at SDF and LEX at
the start of the TAF period, although occasional broken ceilings at
around 6k feet can be expected through the morning hours. VFR
ceilings will continue through the afternoon hours and into early
morning Saturday.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with north
winds averaging around 5kt. High and mid level cloudiness will
increase early Saturday morning, but ceilings will stay VFR. There
is a chance of very light snow or flurries developing after midnight
Saturday at BWG.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KPAH 190955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area
will even see measurable snow. Given the continued southward
shift in the forecast models, tonight`s system looks very minor
and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A few
flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 190955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area
will even see measurable snow. Given the continued southward
shift in the forecast models, tonight`s system looks very minor
and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A few
flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 190955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area
will even see measurable snow. Given the continued southward
shift in the forecast models, tonight`s system looks very minor
and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A few
flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 190955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area
will even see measurable snow. Given the continued southward
shift in the forecast models, tonight`s system looks very minor
and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A few
flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 190955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area
will even see measurable snow. Given the continued southward
shift in the forecast models, tonight`s system looks very minor
and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A few
flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST









000
FXUS63 KPAH 190955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Main weather impact through the short term is the potential for
very light snow over the far southern part of the region tonight.

Of all the considerations we make in preparing a winter forecast,
perhaps the most critical factor in determining how much and what
type of precipitation any one location receives is storm track.
That is certainly the case with tonight`s weather system. It is
interesting to look back on how storm track impacted the forecast
in recent days. Once forecast models began to lock into the
synoptic situation earlier this week, they continued to shift the
track of the surface low further and further south of the region.
As a result, thermodynamic profiles cooled to the extent that what
was once rain forecast across our southern counties became snow.
And the chance for any accumulating snow slowly trickled to
nothing over our northern counties.

That trend has continued with tonight`s model runs--to the point
that I am rather doubtful that anyone within our forecast area
will even see measurable snow. Given the continued southward
shift in the forecast models, tonight`s system looks very minor
and confined to far southern portions of western Kentucky. A few
flurries may be observed in communities north of there, but no
impacts are expected at this point.

Otherwise, the forecast is dry and seasonably cold--albeit with a
gradual moderation in temperatures--through the weekend. Partial
clearing is possible over northeastern sections of the area for a
time today. It will take time for clouds to begin to clear
Saturday, but more sunshine is anticipated on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

Forget about snow, all I want for Christmas is some sunshine!

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS are trending more amplified with the
large/deep low/trough aloft that will dominate the region through
the extended portion of the forecast. They both develop a closed low
over the upper Midwest by Monday, and then bring more energy
southward to the west of it heading into Tuesday. This results in
troughing from the northwest Gulf Coast all the way to the western
Great Lakes by the end of the day Tuesday.

Of course there are differences in the exact orientation and timing
of a cold front passage Monday night into Tuesday, which leads to
differences in timing and location of QPF. It does appear as though
there will be a nice swath of rain with the cold frontal passage,
whenever it moves through. After that, we will be under the
influence of deep cyclonic flow with the upper low not far north of
the area Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The ECMWF is deeper than the GFS and develops a nice swath of what
could be snow across the northeast half of the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The GFS has only faint QPF during this
period, but keeps the low farther north of the area. There is no
sign of a major influx of cold air at the surface, so accumulations
would not be likely. Will keep mainly lower chance PoPs in place
behind the cold front through Wednesday.

As for temperatures, high temperatures Monday will climb to slightly
above normal levels, and depending on the timing of the cold front,
Tuesday could be similarly warm as well. Wednesday will be below
normal with the upper trough in the vicinity. It should climb back
to normal levels Thursday. Lows will be relatively mild through the
period, with readings generally at or above freezing through the
period. The lone exception will be across the north on Wednesday
night, where some upper 20s will be possible.

It looks like sunshine will be difficult to find until Christmas
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

KCGI will see MVFR cigs and VFR/MVFR vsbys through mid morning,
improving to VFR conditions by around midday. At KPAH, VFR
conditions are expected to dip to MVFR late tonight, improving
back to VFR by 15z. KEVV/KOWB may briefly dip to MVFR between 08z
and 13z, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Winds at all sites
will be north to northeast at 5 kts or less.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST








000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190822
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Zonal flow at 500mb continues across the southern tier of the CONUS.
An upper wave currently over Arizona will de-amplify as it crosses
the southern plains later today.

Weak high pressure over the Great Lakes has nosed south across the
Commonwealth. This will keep pressure gradients weak and thus bring
very light winds today through Saturday. Cloud cover will be a
challenge today, as satellite confirms model data indicating only a
thin layer of strato-cu at around 850mb. Breaks in these clouds have
already appeared over southern Indiana. Should this trend continue,
partly cloudy skies may develop across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky by dawn. Eventually, variable cloudiness is expected later
today with some periods of actual sun! Temperatures will peak this
afternoon in the upper 30s.

High and mid level cloudiness will increase overnight as a
disturbance moves across the Gulf States. This shallow amplitude
feature will spread light precipitation as far north as our
Tennessee border early Saturday, but dry air at low levels will not
allow any precipitation to make it as far north as northern
Kentucky. Forecast soundings will be cold enough for snow, and very
light amounts may fall across our far southern counties early
Saturday. However any accumulations will be quite light. Lows early
Saturday will fall into the mid to upper 20s, with highs Saturday
rising into the mid to upper 30s. Mid level moisture will exit later
Saturday morning, but light winds and lingering low level moisture
will probably bring another mostly cloudy day.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 321 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

===================================
Long Term Synoptic Overview
===================================

Not too much in the way of changes from 24 hours ago in the long
term synoptic overview.  A progressive pattern aloft is expected to
be in place at the beginning of the forecast period.  However, in
the early part of the week, the pattern will start to undergo
significant changes.  Teleconnection indices from the deterministic
and ensemble solutions continue to show the pattern transitioning to
an -AO/-NAO/-EPO pattern aloft.  This results in more significant
ridging building across the western CONUS into western Canada with
downstream troughing developing over the northern Plains.  This
upper trough over the northern Plains will continue to strengthen
and cutoff over the Great Lakes region by mid-week.  The upper low
will likely lift northward back into southern Canada with a cold
flow of air pushing into the eastern part of the US.

===================================
Model Preference/Trends/Confidence
===================================

In general sense, the run to run continuity of the models remain
pretty good, sans some of the usual timing issues.  The GEM and Euro
remain steadfast in their development of the western CONUS ridging
and subsequent development of the strong mid-level wave dropping
into the north-central US.  The OP GFS shows this well, though the
parallel GFS sides a bit more with the GEM/Euro solutions.  While
there are some timing issues, the deterministic runs fit well with
the ensembles.  The 19/00Z Euro OP solution is not as gung ho on
developing a strong deep H5 gyre over central Canada late in the
period as the 18/00Z and 18/12Z runs did.  This may be a
manifestation of the large amount of blocking that it develops over
the north Atlantic, and the shifting of the western CONUS ridge
westward.  Its hard to tell if this is just an off run of the model
or the emergence of some trend.  For now, still plan on sticking to
a blend of the Euro ensemble and NAEFS ensembles for this forecast
which will keep forecast continuity.  Forecast confidence on
temperatures and precipitation for the long term period remain at a
medium level at this time.

===================================
Sensible Weather Impacts
===================================

The weather will start off dry on Sunday across the region with a
weak ridge of high pressure drifting through the region. By Monday,
we`ll start to see the central US trough start to drop southward
into the Plains.  As this occurs, we`ll see a mid-level wave push
through the deep south and off the coast.  This feature looks to
bring mainly rain showers to our region.  Overcast and rainy
conditions look to continue Monday night through Wednesday night as
the strong upper trough approaches the region.  Best precipitation
coverage looks to be late in the day on Tuesday through early
Wednesday.  Thermal profiles remain warm through this period with
rain expected.  An increasing pressure gradient will lead to windy
conditions across the region.  Sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with
gusts up to 30 MPH will be seen at times late Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  Highs Sunday will likely warm into the 40s with upper
40s to the lower 50s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

As the upper low deepens and moves into the southern Great Lakes,
we`ll see strong surface cyclogenesis over eastern KY.  This surface
low will deepen considerably on Wednesday race from east KY into the
eastern Great Lakes.  Widespread rain showers will accompany this
system on Wednesday.  In the wake of the surface low passing, we`ll
see a strong northwest flow come in behind, keeping skies very
cloudy and allowing colder air to filter into the region.  We should
see temperatures fall from the lower 50s into the lower 30s by the
evening hours.  Thermal profiles look to cool sufficiently to see
the widespread rain showers change over to snow showers by Wednesday
evening.  While temperatures are expected to remain in the lower
30s, it will feel colder than that due to the blustery northwesterly
winds.  With surface temps expected to bottom out in the lower 30s
late Wednesday night, we could see some light snow accumulations.
This will be something to keep an eye on over the next several days.

The surface and upper low will continue to lift northward on
Thursday into Canada.  This will result in less windy conditions
along with a drying trend.  Some left over snow showers or flurries
will be possible...mainly in the northeastern sections of our area
early Thursday morning.  Some partial clearing may take place by the
afternoon.  Afternoon highs look to rebound into the upper 30s to
the lower 40s in the north with lower 40s down across the south.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1200 AM EST Fri Dec 19 2014

Ceilings through the mid-morning hours will stay VFR with bases
above 4k feet. Some breaks in the clouds will approach SDF and LEX
after 06z, with ceilings occasionally scattering out. Ceilings will
become scattered towards dawn, with variable cloudiness expected
during the day Friday, with any ceilings staying VFR.

Winds will stay very light during the entire TAF period with
north winds averaging around 5kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME MODEST CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AROUND 12Z TODAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH 18Z. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
THEN BE ON TAP THROUGH AROUND 0Z. AFTER THAT...MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WEATHER APPROACHES. THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...IT APPEARS THAT SOME MODEST CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR
AROUND 12Z TODAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE TO BREAK UP AND
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH 18Z. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
THEN BE ON TAP THROUGH AROUND 0Z. AFTER THAT...MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER WEATHER APPROACHES. THE TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







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