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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301501
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOST OF THE FOG THAT FORMED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS NOW GONE. HOWEVER...CURRENT OBS INDICATE THAT
SOME FOG IS STILL STUBBORNLY HANGING ON THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEYS. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH THIS FOG...WHICH SHOULD BE
GONE BY NOON TODAY IF NOT SOONER. THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WERE BOTH UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
DENSE FOG FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES AND NEW PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED THIS
MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. WITH THE DENSE FOG NOW BECOMING MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS ANY REMAINING LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AND ANY ISSUES IT MAY BE CAUSING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY
RIVER VALLEYS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND NOW MENTIONS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG FOR LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
ADD IN A BIT MORE FOG THROUGH 15Z TODAY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOK PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED
AGAIN AROUND 11 AM TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER MENTION OF FOG AND DENSE FOG
FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 301501
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MOST OF THE FOG THAT FORMED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY IS NOW GONE. HOWEVER...CURRENT OBS INDICATE THAT
SOME FOG IS STILL STUBBORNLY HANGING ON THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY RIVER VALLEYS. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO DEAL WITH THIS FOG...WHICH SHOULD BE
GONE BY NOON TODAY IF NOT SOONER. THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT AND
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WERE BOTH UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF
DENSE FOG FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES AND NEW PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED THIS
MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. WITH THE DENSE FOG NOW BECOMING MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS ANY REMAINING LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AND ANY ISSUES IT MAY BE CAUSING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY
RIVER VALLEYS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND NOW MENTIONS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG FOR LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
ADD IN A BIT MORE FOG THROUGH 15Z TODAY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOK PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED
AGAIN AROUND 11 AM TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER MENTION OF FOG AND DENSE FOG
FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301406
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1006 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES AND NEW PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED THIS
MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. WITH THE DENSE FOG NOW BECOMING MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS ANY REMAINING LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AND ANY ISSUES IT MAY BE CAUSING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY
RIVER VALLEYS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND NOW MENTIONS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG FOR LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
ADD IN A BIT MORE FOG THROUGH 15Z TODAY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOK PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED
AGAIN AROUND 11 AM TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER MENTION OF FOG AND DENSE FOG
FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301406
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1006 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A NUMBER OF PRODUCT UPDATES AND NEW PRODUCTS WERE ISSUED THIS
MORNING. THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THAT HAD OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND
DISSIPATE. WITH THE DENSE FOG NOW BECOMING MORE PATCHY IN
NATURE...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO ADDRESS ANY REMAINING LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AND ANY ISSUES IT MAY BE CAUSING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
PREVIOUSLY COVERED BY THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
ANY REMAINING DENSE FOG IS OCCURRING IN THE CUMBERLAND AND BIG SANDY
RIVER VALLEYS. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE CANCELLATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND NOW MENTIONS LOCALLY
DENSE FOG FOR LATE THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO
ADD IN A BIT MORE FOG THROUGH 15Z TODAY TO MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THE FORECAST AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER LOOK PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED
AGAIN AROUND 11 AM TO REMOVE ANY FURTHER MENTION OF FOG AND DENSE FOG
FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 301107
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.

With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.

The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.

At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.

In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.

The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue SEP 3029 2014

Little change from previous forecast package. Kept lingering
mention of IFR/MVFR fog for the first hour at KCGI/KPAH, but
shifted immediately to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 301107
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.

With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.

The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.

At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.

In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.

The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue SEP 3029 2014

Little change from previous forecast package. Kept lingering
mention of IFR/MVFR fog for the first hour at KCGI/KPAH, but
shifted immediately to VFR conditions for the remainder of the
forecast period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...Smith





000
FXUS63 KJKL 301046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 301046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 301046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 301046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE EARLY MORNING WORDING. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REPORTING A QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY. NO NEED
TO MAKE ANY OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND PLAN TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PART HELD BACK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. IT
IS THIS TIME FRAME...AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY...THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER
SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF. THE LATEST VERSION
OF THE OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN
UPPER LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS
OVER KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS
MUCH OF AN OUTLIER AS ITS 12Z VERSION EARLIER IN THE SHIFT.
NEVERTHELESS...THE TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT ALL...THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION
FOR THE OHIO VALLEY. FOR WX DETAILS FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL...SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED...INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED GRIDS...
THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE NEWEST ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST...
MOST LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LIFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE THE FOG LIFTS AND BURNS OFF BY MID
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN TO THE AREA WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL AGAIN SET UP ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
AND HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE TAFS YET AGAIN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 301041
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley.  There were two troughs of note, one compact
trough pushing southeast through the Great Lakes, with another
upstream trough centered over the Central Plains.  The Great Lakes
trough will be the main focus of this short term period, as it will
help drive a weak surface front through the region today.

Conditions remain tranquil early this morning as high pressure
remains in control.  Have been keeping a close eye on area
observations/webcams as some fog continues to remain a possibility,
mainly across portions of south-central KY where the drier air did
not penetrate Monday afternoon.  So far nothing seems to be too
dense in nature, but this may change so we will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

Otherwise, today will be another pleasant late-September day.  The
aforementioned potent PV anomaly/compact trough will push southeast
through Ohio today, driving a weak cold front south from IN/OH into
KY by late this afternoon.  This front will be moisture-starved,
thus do not expect anything more than a few clouds along it.  There
is also not much of an airmass change behind the front, so
temperatures should still be rather mild today across all areas.
Given the dry grounds, guidance continues to have a cool bias, thus
will go above the consensus for highs today.  This puts temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The weak front will completely wash out over the region tonight as
winds go mainly calm with mostly clear skies.  Radiational cooling
will lead to temperatures dropping into the low and mid 50s once
again, with some patchy fog once again possible.

Wednesday will feature more of the same as mild temperatures and
sunny skies continue.  Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s once
again.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The warmth of the past week will come to an end during this long
term as a pattern change brings upper trofs into the region from
the northwest Friday morning, Friday night, and Monday.

With the first trof, a surface cold front will cross the region from
west to east Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible by Thursday afternoon and will become widespread Thursday
night into Friday morning before tapering off from west to east over
the course of the day Friday. Though we will see an increase in the
low level jet Thursday night and there will be some instability
available, sounding progs suggest any storms will be elevated.
Also, the column will be very moist as precipitable water values
rise well above normal for early October.  These factors combined
with the climatologically unfavorable time of day of the fropa
indicate that severe storms will be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain
will be a possibility, but with as dry as we`ve been for the past
2-3 weeks, flooding shouldn`t be a problem.

For temperatures on Thursday...models have been running too cool
recently with their MaxT`s, plus we`ll be ahead of the approaching
cold front and pattern change, so will go a little warmer than
guidance for high temperatures despite cloud and rain chances. Will
aim for readings solidly in the middle 80s.

Behind the front on Friday, lower 70s for highs look good for most
locations.  Friday could be a rather breezy day, with WNW winds
gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon.

High pressure is expected to nose in behind the departing weather
maker, keeping a secondary cool front to our north.  Will go with
dry weather for the weekend as a result. Then by Monday the next
upper trof and surface connection will enter the picture and bring
another chance of showers, though this system looks much weaker and
drier than the Thursday night event.

Chose to go on the cool side of guidance this weekend with
persistent upper troffing expected (especially Saturday and
Monday).  Will go with 60-65 on Saturday and 60s on Sunday, with
70-75 on Monday.  The chilliest morning will be Sunday morning as
lows drop into the lower and middle 40s with upper 30s in the usual
cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The main TAF concerns will be fog this morning at KBWG, with an
additional chance for fog/low stratus tonight into Wednesday
morning.  As expected, KBWG has been bouncing from MVFR to LIFR this
morning, which will likely continue for the next few hours.  All
sites will then go VFR for the remainder of the day.  Will have to
watch the evolution of low cigs to the north across Indiana as a
weak cold front approaches the region, but these should mix out by
the time they get toward KSDF later this morning.

The weak front will wash out across the region tonight.  Depending
on exactly where it lays out, some fog/stratus development will be
possible.  For now, will introduce MVFR vsbys to KBWG and KLEX, but
some low stratus appears possible as well (similar to what is going
on currently in Indiana along the front).

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301041
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley.  There were two troughs of note, one compact
trough pushing southeast through the Great Lakes, with another
upstream trough centered over the Central Plains.  The Great Lakes
trough will be the main focus of this short term period, as it will
help drive a weak surface front through the region today.

Conditions remain tranquil early this morning as high pressure
remains in control.  Have been keeping a close eye on area
observations/webcams as some fog continues to remain a possibility,
mainly across portions of south-central KY where the drier air did
not penetrate Monday afternoon.  So far nothing seems to be too
dense in nature, but this may change so we will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

Otherwise, today will be another pleasant late-September day.  The
aforementioned potent PV anomaly/compact trough will push southeast
through Ohio today, driving a weak cold front south from IN/OH into
KY by late this afternoon.  This front will be moisture-starved,
thus do not expect anything more than a few clouds along it.  There
is also not much of an airmass change behind the front, so
temperatures should still be rather mild today across all areas.
Given the dry grounds, guidance continues to have a cool bias, thus
will go above the consensus for highs today.  This puts temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The weak front will completely wash out over the region tonight as
winds go mainly calm with mostly clear skies.  Radiational cooling
will lead to temperatures dropping into the low and mid 50s once
again, with some patchy fog once again possible.

Wednesday will feature more of the same as mild temperatures and
sunny skies continue.  Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s once
again.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The warmth of the past week will come to an end during this long
term as a pattern change brings upper trofs into the region from
the northwest Friday morning, Friday night, and Monday.

With the first trof, a surface cold front will cross the region from
west to east Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible by Thursday afternoon and will become widespread Thursday
night into Friday morning before tapering off from west to east over
the course of the day Friday. Though we will see an increase in the
low level jet Thursday night and there will be some instability
available, sounding progs suggest any storms will be elevated.
Also, the column will be very moist as precipitable water values
rise well above normal for early October.  These factors combined
with the climatologically unfavorable time of day of the fropa
indicate that severe storms will be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain
will be a possibility, but with as dry as we`ve been for the past
2-3 weeks, flooding shouldn`t be a problem.

For temperatures on Thursday...models have been running too cool
recently with their MaxT`s, plus we`ll be ahead of the approaching
cold front and pattern change, so will go a little warmer than
guidance for high temperatures despite cloud and rain chances. Will
aim for readings solidly in the middle 80s.

Behind the front on Friday, lower 70s for highs look good for most
locations.  Friday could be a rather breezy day, with WNW winds
gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon.

High pressure is expected to nose in behind the departing weather
maker, keeping a secondary cool front to our north.  Will go with
dry weather for the weekend as a result. Then by Monday the next
upper trof and surface connection will enter the picture and bring
another chance of showers, though this system looks much weaker and
drier than the Thursday night event.

Chose to go on the cool side of guidance this weekend with
persistent upper troffing expected (especially Saturday and
Monday).  Will go with 60-65 on Saturday and 60s on Sunday, with
70-75 on Monday.  The chilliest morning will be Sunday morning as
lows drop into the lower and middle 40s with upper 30s in the usual
cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The main TAF concerns will be fog this morning at KBWG, with an
additional chance for fog/low stratus tonight into Wednesday
morning.  As expected, KBWG has been bouncing from MVFR to LIFR this
morning, which will likely continue for the next few hours.  All
sites will then go VFR for the remainder of the day.  Will have to
watch the evolution of low cigs to the north across Indiana as a
weak cold front approaches the region, but these should mix out by
the time they get toward KSDF later this morning.

The weak front will wash out across the region tonight.  Depending
on exactly where it lays out, some fog/stratus development will be
possible.  For now, will introduce MVFR vsbys to KBWG and KLEX, but
some low stratus appears possible as well (similar to what is going
on currently in Indiana along the front).

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301041
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley.  There were two troughs of note, one compact
trough pushing southeast through the Great Lakes, with another
upstream trough centered over the Central Plains.  The Great Lakes
trough will be the main focus of this short term period, as it will
help drive a weak surface front through the region today.

Conditions remain tranquil early this morning as high pressure
remains in control.  Have been keeping a close eye on area
observations/webcams as some fog continues to remain a possibility,
mainly across portions of south-central KY where the drier air did
not penetrate Monday afternoon.  So far nothing seems to be too
dense in nature, but this may change so we will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

Otherwise, today will be another pleasant late-September day.  The
aforementioned potent PV anomaly/compact trough will push southeast
through Ohio today, driving a weak cold front south from IN/OH into
KY by late this afternoon.  This front will be moisture-starved,
thus do not expect anything more than a few clouds along it.  There
is also not much of an airmass change behind the front, so
temperatures should still be rather mild today across all areas.
Given the dry grounds, guidance continues to have a cool bias, thus
will go above the consensus for highs today.  This puts temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The weak front will completely wash out over the region tonight as
winds go mainly calm with mostly clear skies.  Radiational cooling
will lead to temperatures dropping into the low and mid 50s once
again, with some patchy fog once again possible.

Wednesday will feature more of the same as mild temperatures and
sunny skies continue.  Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s once
again.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The warmth of the past week will come to an end during this long
term as a pattern change brings upper trofs into the region from
the northwest Friday morning, Friday night, and Monday.

With the first trof, a surface cold front will cross the region from
west to east Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible by Thursday afternoon and will become widespread Thursday
night into Friday morning before tapering off from west to east over
the course of the day Friday. Though we will see an increase in the
low level jet Thursday night and there will be some instability
available, sounding progs suggest any storms will be elevated.
Also, the column will be very moist as precipitable water values
rise well above normal for early October.  These factors combined
with the climatologically unfavorable time of day of the fropa
indicate that severe storms will be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain
will be a possibility, but with as dry as we`ve been for the past
2-3 weeks, flooding shouldn`t be a problem.

For temperatures on Thursday...models have been running too cool
recently with their MaxT`s, plus we`ll be ahead of the approaching
cold front and pattern change, so will go a little warmer than
guidance for high temperatures despite cloud and rain chances. Will
aim for readings solidly in the middle 80s.

Behind the front on Friday, lower 70s for highs look good for most
locations.  Friday could be a rather breezy day, with WNW winds
gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon.

High pressure is expected to nose in behind the departing weather
maker, keeping a secondary cool front to our north.  Will go with
dry weather for the weekend as a result. Then by Monday the next
upper trof and surface connection will enter the picture and bring
another chance of showers, though this system looks much weaker and
drier than the Thursday night event.

Chose to go on the cool side of guidance this weekend with
persistent upper troffing expected (especially Saturday and
Monday).  Will go with 60-65 on Saturday and 60s on Sunday, with
70-75 on Monday.  The chilliest morning will be Sunday morning as
lows drop into the lower and middle 40s with upper 30s in the usual
cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The main TAF concerns will be fog this morning at KBWG, with an
additional chance for fog/low stratus tonight into Wednesday
morning.  As expected, KBWG has been bouncing from MVFR to LIFR this
morning, which will likely continue for the next few hours.  All
sites will then go VFR for the remainder of the day.  Will have to
watch the evolution of low cigs to the north across Indiana as a
weak cold front approaches the region, but these should mix out by
the time they get toward KSDF later this morning.

The weak front will wash out across the region tonight.  Depending
on exactly where it lays out, some fog/stratus development will be
possible.  For now, will introduce MVFR vsbys to KBWG and KLEX, but
some low stratus appears possible as well (similar to what is going
on currently in Indiana along the front).

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301041
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley.  There were two troughs of note, one compact
trough pushing southeast through the Great Lakes, with another
upstream trough centered over the Central Plains.  The Great Lakes
trough will be the main focus of this short term period, as it will
help drive a weak surface front through the region today.

Conditions remain tranquil early this morning as high pressure
remains in control.  Have been keeping a close eye on area
observations/webcams as some fog continues to remain a possibility,
mainly across portions of south-central KY where the drier air did
not penetrate Monday afternoon.  So far nothing seems to be too
dense in nature, but this may change so we will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

Otherwise, today will be another pleasant late-September day.  The
aforementioned potent PV anomaly/compact trough will push southeast
through Ohio today, driving a weak cold front south from IN/OH into
KY by late this afternoon.  This front will be moisture-starved,
thus do not expect anything more than a few clouds along it.  There
is also not much of an airmass change behind the front, so
temperatures should still be rather mild today across all areas.
Given the dry grounds, guidance continues to have a cool bias, thus
will go above the consensus for highs today.  This puts temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The weak front will completely wash out over the region tonight as
winds go mainly calm with mostly clear skies.  Radiational cooling
will lead to temperatures dropping into the low and mid 50s once
again, with some patchy fog once again possible.

Wednesday will feature more of the same as mild temperatures and
sunny skies continue.  Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s once
again.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The warmth of the past week will come to an end during this long
term as a pattern change brings upper trofs into the region from
the northwest Friday morning, Friday night, and Monday.

With the first trof, a surface cold front will cross the region from
west to east Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible by Thursday afternoon and will become widespread Thursday
night into Friday morning before tapering off from west to east over
the course of the day Friday. Though we will see an increase in the
low level jet Thursday night and there will be some instability
available, sounding progs suggest any storms will be elevated.
Also, the column will be very moist as precipitable water values
rise well above normal for early October.  These factors combined
with the climatologically unfavorable time of day of the fropa
indicate that severe storms will be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain
will be a possibility, but with as dry as we`ve been for the past
2-3 weeks, flooding shouldn`t be a problem.

For temperatures on Thursday...models have been running too cool
recently with their MaxT`s, plus we`ll be ahead of the approaching
cold front and pattern change, so will go a little warmer than
guidance for high temperatures despite cloud and rain chances. Will
aim for readings solidly in the middle 80s.

Behind the front on Friday, lower 70s for highs look good for most
locations.  Friday could be a rather breezy day, with WNW winds
gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon.

High pressure is expected to nose in behind the departing weather
maker, keeping a secondary cool front to our north.  Will go with
dry weather for the weekend as a result. Then by Monday the next
upper trof and surface connection will enter the picture and bring
another chance of showers, though this system looks much weaker and
drier than the Thursday night event.

Chose to go on the cool side of guidance this weekend with
persistent upper troffing expected (especially Saturday and
Monday).  Will go with 60-65 on Saturday and 60s on Sunday, with
70-75 on Monday.  The chilliest morning will be Sunday morning as
lows drop into the lower and middle 40s with upper 30s in the usual
cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The main TAF concerns will be fog this morning at KBWG, with an
additional chance for fog/low stratus tonight into Wednesday
morning.  As expected, KBWG has been bouncing from MVFR to LIFR this
morning, which will likely continue for the next few hours.  All
sites will then go VFR for the remainder of the day.  Will have to
watch the evolution of low cigs to the north across Indiana as a
weak cold front approaches the region, but these should mix out by
the time they get toward KSDF later this morning.

The weak front will wash out across the region tonight.  Depending
on exactly where it lays out, some fog/stratus development will be
possible.  For now, will introduce MVFR vsbys to KBWG and KLEX, but
some low stratus appears possible as well (similar to what is going
on currently in Indiana along the front).

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION HELD BECK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IT IS THIS TIME FRAME AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...
BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST VERSION OF THE
OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS OVER
KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS MUCH
OF AN OUTLIER AS IT SEEMED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR
THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR
AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION HELD BECK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IT IS THIS TIME FRAME AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...
BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST VERSION OF THE
OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS OVER
KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS MUCH
OF AN OUTLIER AS IT SEEMED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR
THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR
AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300748
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.

With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.

The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.

At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.

In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.

The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...DH






000
FXUS63 KPAH 300748
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The main weather system for the short term forecast period still
remains focused on Thursday and Thursday night. Medium range, and
now, short range guidance suggests that the best lift and forcing
shall remain limited to the aforementioned time period. This has
been consistent with the model runs since late last week.

With respect to severe potential, using the operational GFS as a
convective template, the time period between 23z-04z (6 pm - 11 pm
CDT) Friday, inclusive, is supportive of at least isolated to
scattered severe storms. The 0-1km and 0-6km Bulk shear remains
between 20-25 knots and 40 to 45 knots, respectively between 00z
and 06z Friday...with Mixed Layer and Most Unstable layer CAPE
edging into a northeast oriented gradient between 1200-1400 j/kg.

The Day 3 Slight Risk area defined by SPC fits very well with the
area of interest over Southeast Missouri Thursday evening.

At this point in time, suspect that there may be some wind damage
potential (entraining very dry air aloft into marginally favorable
layer lapse rates) with a squall line moving into and off of the
Southeast Missouri foothills between 00-03z Friday. Beyond that
time, low level convergence, originally associated with a surface
wave moving through eastern Missouri at the time, will take most
of the enhanced low level convergence and shear rapidly northeast
out of the area by 06z Friday. Other than this limited severe
weather potential, a broad swatch of 1-1.25 inches of rain will be
the primary activity with the passage of the weather system
Thursday and Thursday night.

In the very near term, fog potential will still be an issue for this
morning. Issued an SPS for locally dense fog once again. All though
the high resolution 3km HRRR continues to overreach on coverage, the
13km RAP and 4km NAM-WRF (NMM version) appear to suggest that
Southeast Illinois could see more widespread fog through daybreak.

The influx of moisture should increase after today will limit the
25-30 degree diurnal swing of temperatures experience during the
last few days. Went slightly above the warmest guidance today for
maximum temperatures. More normal diurnal range of temperatures
can then be expected prior to the development of convection late
night Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

The pattern will generally be an upper level trof over the east U.S.
with strong flow coming into the CONUS across the Pacific NW, and
some riding over the SW U.S. extending into Mexico. Mainly dry
weather is expected. A cold front will depart the area early Friday
with decreasing chances of showers in the morning. High pressure
will build in, and lead to a cooler Saturday. Not sure how cool
though, as the GFS shows 925-850mb warm advection developing as
early as 12-18z Sat. Temperatures will moderate back to seasonal
norms Sunday-Monday. Will keep an eye on a frontal system the models
advertise Sunday night into early Monday. 00z GFS develops some
convection, however prior runs did not. ECMWF stays generally dry.
Will keep it dry for now and monitor trends.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...CN
Aviation...DH





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley.  There were two troughs of note, one compact
trough pushing southeast through the Great Lakes, with another
upstream trough centered over the Central Plains.  The Great Lakes
trough will be the main focus of this short term period, as it will
help drive a weak surface front through the region today.

Conditions remain tranquil early this morning as high pressure
remains in control.  Have been keeping a close eye on area
observations/webcams as some fog continues to remain a possibility,
mainly across portions of south-central KY where the drier air did
not penetrate Monday afternoon.  So far nothing seems to be too
dense in nature, but this may change so we will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

Otherwise, today will be another pleasant late-September day.  The
aforementioned potent PV anomaly/compact trough will push southeast
through Ohio today, driving a weak cold front south from IN/OH into
KY by late this afternoon.  This front will be moisture-starved,
thus do not expect anything more than a few clouds along it.  There
is also not much of an airmass change behind the front, so
temperatures should still be rather mild today across all areas.
Given the dry grounds, guidance continues to have a cool bias, thus
will go above the consensus for highs today.  This puts temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The weak front will completely wash out over the region tonight as
winds go mainly calm with mostly clear skies.  Radiational cooling
will lead to temperatures dropping into the low and mid 50s once
again, with some patchy fog once again possible.

Wednesday will feature more of the same as mild temperatures and
sunny skies continue.  Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s once
again.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The warmth of the past week will come to an end during this long
term as a pattern change brings upper trofs into the region from
the northwest Friday morning, Friday night, and Monday.

With the first trof, a surface cold front will cross the region from
west to east Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible by Thursday afternoon and will become widespread Thursday
night into Friday morning before tapering off from west to east over
the course of the day Friday. Though we will see an increase in the
low level jet Thursday night and there will be some instability
available, sounding progs suggest any storms will be elevated.
Also, the column will be very moist as precipitable water values
rise well above normal for early October.  These factors combined
with the climatologically unfavorable time of day of the fropa
indicate that severe storms will be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain
will be a possibility, but with as dry as we`ve been for the past
2-3 weeks, flooding shouldn`t be a problem.

For temperatures on Thursday...models have been running too cool
recently with their MaxT`s, plus we`ll be ahead of the approaching
cold front and pattern change, so will go a little warmer than
guidance for high temperatures despite cloud and rain chances. Will
aim for readings solidly in the middle 80s.

Behind the front on Friday, lower 70s for highs look good for most
locations.  Friday could be a rather breezy day, with WNW winds
gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon.

High pressure is expected to nose in behind the departing weather
maker, keeping a secondary cool front to our north.  Will go with
dry weather for the weekend as a result. Then by Monday the next
upper trof and surface connection will enter the picture and bring
another chance of showers, though this system looks much weaker and
drier than the Thursday night event.

Chose to go on the cool side of guidance this weekend with
persistent upper troffing expected (especially Saturday and
Monday).  Will go with 60-65 on Saturday and 60s on Sunday, with
70-75 on Monday.  The chilliest morning will be Sunday morning as
lows drop into the lower and middle 40s with upper 30s in the usual
cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Main concern remains with this TAF package remains fog potential at
KLEX and KBWG.  The overall trend in guidance has been to back off
on the fog potential this morning at these locations.  This seems
reasonable given the amount of drier air that was able to work in
Monday afternoon.  Will leave the period of LIFR vsbys in at KBWG,
but will shorten the timeframe of the TEMPO group.  KLEX will likely
remain VFR and have removed their MVFR TEMPO group given the latest
guidance trends and dewpoint depressions still around 6 degrees.

Any fog will quickly burn off later this morning, leaving VFR
conditions.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NNW, with
just a few passing clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300706
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features weak ridging aloft
over the Ohio Valley.  There were two troughs of note, one compact
trough pushing southeast through the Great Lakes, with another
upstream trough centered over the Central Plains.  The Great Lakes
trough will be the main focus of this short term period, as it will
help drive a weak surface front through the region today.

Conditions remain tranquil early this morning as high pressure
remains in control.  Have been keeping a close eye on area
observations/webcams as some fog continues to remain a possibility,
mainly across portions of south-central KY where the drier air did
not penetrate Monday afternoon.  So far nothing seems to be too
dense in nature, but this may change so we will continue to monitor
through the morning hours.

Otherwise, today will be another pleasant late-September day.  The
aforementioned potent PV anomaly/compact trough will push southeast
through Ohio today, driving a weak cold front south from IN/OH into
KY by late this afternoon.  This front will be moisture-starved,
thus do not expect anything more than a few clouds along it.  There
is also not much of an airmass change behind the front, so
temperatures should still be rather mild today across all areas.
Given the dry grounds, guidance continues to have a cool bias, thus
will go above the consensus for highs today.  This puts temperatures
in the low to mid 80s.

The weak front will completely wash out over the region tonight as
winds go mainly calm with mostly clear skies.  Radiational cooling
will lead to temperatures dropping into the low and mid 50s once
again, with some patchy fog once again possible.

Wednesday will feature more of the same as mild temperatures and
sunny skies continue.  Highs will top out in the low to mid 80s once
again.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

The warmth of the past week will come to an end during this long
term as a pattern change brings upper trofs into the region from
the northwest Friday morning, Friday night, and Monday.

With the first trof, a surface cold front will cross the region from
west to east Friday.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible by Thursday afternoon and will become widespread Thursday
night into Friday morning before tapering off from west to east over
the course of the day Friday. Though we will see an increase in the
low level jet Thursday night and there will be some instability
available, sounding progs suggest any storms will be elevated.
Also, the column will be very moist as precipitable water values
rise well above normal for early October.  These factors combined
with the climatologically unfavorable time of day of the fropa
indicate that severe storms will be unlikely.  Locally heavy rain
will be a possibility, but with as dry as we`ve been for the past
2-3 weeks, flooding shouldn`t be a problem.

For temperatures on Thursday...models have been running too cool
recently with their MaxT`s, plus we`ll be ahead of the approaching
cold front and pattern change, so will go a little warmer than
guidance for high temperatures despite cloud and rain chances. Will
aim for readings solidly in the middle 80s.

Behind the front on Friday, lower 70s for highs look good for most
locations.  Friday could be a rather breezy day, with WNW winds
gusting to around 25 mph in the afternoon.

High pressure is expected to nose in behind the departing weather
maker, keeping a secondary cool front to our north.  Will go with
dry weather for the weekend as a result. Then by Monday the next
upper trof and surface connection will enter the picture and bring
another chance of showers, though this system looks much weaker and
drier than the Thursday night event.

Chose to go on the cool side of guidance this weekend with
persistent upper troffing expected (especially Saturday and
Monday).  Will go with 60-65 on Saturday and 60s on Sunday, with
70-75 on Monday.  The chilliest morning will be Sunday morning as
lows drop into the lower and middle 40s with upper 30s in the usual
cold spots.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Main concern remains with this TAF package remains fog potential at
KLEX and KBWG.  The overall trend in guidance has been to back off
on the fog potential this morning at these locations.  This seems
reasonable given the amount of drier air that was able to work in
Monday afternoon.  Will leave the period of LIFR vsbys in at KBWG,
but will shorten the timeframe of the TEMPO group.  KLEX will likely
remain VFR and have removed their MVFR TEMPO group given the latest
guidance trends and dewpoint depressions still around 6 degrees.

Any fog will quickly burn off later this morning, leaving VFR
conditions.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NNW, with
just a few passing clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300523
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A LOT
OF FOG SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ALREADY AND IT CONTINUE TO EXPAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...AND MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND UPSTREAM REPORTING
WINDS OF 3KTS OR LESS CONTINUING TO AFFIRM WEAK ADVECTION AT BEST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST SOME OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOG BLANKET LIKELY TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300523
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME AS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A LOT
OF FOG SHOWING UP ON SATELLITE ALREADY AND IT CONTINUE TO EXPAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...AND MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND UPSTREAM REPORTING
WINDS OF 3KTS OR LESS CONTINUING TO AFFIRM WEAK ADVECTION AT BEST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST SOME OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOG BLANKET LIKELY TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 300503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main focus in the short term is where fog will form overnight. Dry
dewpoints made a surge southeastward across the region late this
afternoon. Still think the most concentrated areas of fog will be in
rivers and valleys across our southeastern counties. Have tweaked
the grids a little to match the observational trends towards where
the fog has the best chance to form. Otherwise should be a quiet
night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region through Tues
night with upper level ridging moving in late Tues.  This will
result in dry conditions with temps slightly above seasonal normals.
Low temps tonight and Tues night will be in the low to mid 50s with
tonight being slightly cooler.  Tuesday`s highs will be in the lower
80s...similar to today.

The one forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility
of fog perhaps dense in some areas late tonight into Tues morning.
This morning many places across the area saw fog with patchy dense
fog in some spots.  Tonight with light winds, a decent inversion,
and lingering low level moisture, fog will again be possible
especially over south central KY where the least amount of light dry
air advection/mix down has occurred this afternoon.  Thus, will
paint south central KY with areas of fog keeping in mind that some
patchy dense fog will again be possible.  Over north central KY
patchy fog will be possible with a lesser chance for fog development
over southern Indiana (the driest area).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The long term period will begin with weak ridging aloft and winds
shifting to southerly as surface high pressure shifts east.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain above normal
for this time of year. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday
morning.

We will see a change in the pattern as an upper level trough builds
in through the second half of the week. A cold front associated with
this system will move through Friday bringing with it the best
chance for rain in quite some time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to develop in the warm sector ahead of this
system Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation during
the day will be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

Rain chances will increase into the overnight hours as the front
nears. Will continue with likely pops (70%) for this system
overnight. Severe weather does not look likely, but storms could
produce some gusty winds. In addition PWAT values will rise to
around 1.8" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, storms will be very efficient rain producers. However,
this system should be pretty progressive, so do not think flooding
will be a major issue, though some ponding of water could occur in
low lying and flood prone areas. The rain will move out as the front
swings through Friday with Friday night expected to be dry. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front and dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Thursday will remain warm with highs in the 80s.
Friday`s highs will be tricky with the rain, clouds, and front
moving through. For now it looks like highs will be in the lower
70s. Much cooler air will push in behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 40s Saturday morning and will be even cooler Sunday
morning in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will top out in
the lower to mid 60s. A gradual warm up will then begin through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Main concern remains with this TAF package remains fog potential at
KLEX and KBWG.  The overall trend in guidance has been to back off
on the fog potential this morning at these locations.  This seems
reasonable given the amount of drier air that was able to work in
Monday afternoon.  Will leave the period of LIFR vsbys in at KBWG,
but will shorten the timeframe of the TEMPO group.  KLEX will likely
remain VFR and have removed their MVFR TEMPO group given the latest
guidance trends and dewpoint depressions still around 6 degrees.

Any fog will quickly burn off later this morning, leaving VFR
conditions.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NNW, with
just a few passing clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main focus in the short term is where fog will form overnight. Dry
dewpoints made a surge southeastward across the region late this
afternoon. Still think the most concentrated areas of fog will be in
rivers and valleys across our southeastern counties. Have tweaked
the grids a little to match the observational trends towards where
the fog has the best chance to form. Otherwise should be a quiet
night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region through Tues
night with upper level ridging moving in late Tues.  This will
result in dry conditions with temps slightly above seasonal normals.
Low temps tonight and Tues night will be in the low to mid 50s with
tonight being slightly cooler.  Tuesday`s highs will be in the lower
80s...similar to today.

The one forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility
of fog perhaps dense in some areas late tonight into Tues morning.
This morning many places across the area saw fog with patchy dense
fog in some spots.  Tonight with light winds, a decent inversion,
and lingering low level moisture, fog will again be possible
especially over south central KY where the least amount of light dry
air advection/mix down has occurred this afternoon.  Thus, will
paint south central KY with areas of fog keeping in mind that some
patchy dense fog will again be possible.  Over north central KY
patchy fog will be possible with a lesser chance for fog development
over southern Indiana (the driest area).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The long term period will begin with weak ridging aloft and winds
shifting to southerly as surface high pressure shifts east.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain above normal
for this time of year. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday
morning.

We will see a change in the pattern as an upper level trough builds
in through the second half of the week. A cold front associated with
this system will move through Friday bringing with it the best
chance for rain in quite some time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to develop in the warm sector ahead of this
system Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation during
the day will be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

Rain chances will increase into the overnight hours as the front
nears. Will continue with likely pops (70%) for this system
overnight. Severe weather does not look likely, but storms could
produce some gusty winds. In addition PWAT values will rise to
around 1.8" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, storms will be very efficient rain producers. However,
this system should be pretty progressive, so do not think flooding
will be a major issue, though some ponding of water could occur in
low lying and flood prone areas. The rain will move out as the front
swings through Friday with Friday night expected to be dry. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front and dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Thursday will remain warm with highs in the 80s.
Friday`s highs will be tricky with the rain, clouds, and front
moving through. For now it looks like highs will be in the lower
70s. Much cooler air will push in behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 40s Saturday morning and will be even cooler Sunday
morning in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will top out in
the lower to mid 60s. A gradual warm up will then begin through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Main concern remains with this TAF package remains fog potential at
KLEX and KBWG.  The overall trend in guidance has been to back off
on the fog potential this morning at these locations.  This seems
reasonable given the amount of drier air that was able to work in
Monday afternoon.  Will leave the period of LIFR vsbys in at KBWG,
but will shorten the timeframe of the TEMPO group.  KLEX will likely
remain VFR and have removed their MVFR TEMPO group given the latest
guidance trends and dewpoint depressions still around 6 degrees.

Any fog will quickly burn off later this morning, leaving VFR
conditions.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NNW, with
just a few passing clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main focus in the short term is where fog will form overnight. Dry
dewpoints made a surge southeastward across the region late this
afternoon. Still think the most concentrated areas of fog will be in
rivers and valleys across our southeastern counties. Have tweaked
the grids a little to match the observational trends towards where
the fog has the best chance to form. Otherwise should be a quiet
night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region through Tues
night with upper level ridging moving in late Tues.  This will
result in dry conditions with temps slightly above seasonal normals.
Low temps tonight and Tues night will be in the low to mid 50s with
tonight being slightly cooler.  Tuesday`s highs will be in the lower
80s...similar to today.

The one forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility
of fog perhaps dense in some areas late tonight into Tues morning.
This morning many places across the area saw fog with patchy dense
fog in some spots.  Tonight with light winds, a decent inversion,
and lingering low level moisture, fog will again be possible
especially over south central KY where the least amount of light dry
air advection/mix down has occurred this afternoon.  Thus, will
paint south central KY with areas of fog keeping in mind that some
patchy dense fog will again be possible.  Over north central KY
patchy fog will be possible with a lesser chance for fog development
over southern Indiana (the driest area).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The long term period will begin with weak ridging aloft and winds
shifting to southerly as surface high pressure shifts east.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain above normal
for this time of year. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday
morning.

We will see a change in the pattern as an upper level trough builds
in through the second half of the week. A cold front associated with
this system will move through Friday bringing with it the best
chance for rain in quite some time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to develop in the warm sector ahead of this
system Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation during
the day will be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

Rain chances will increase into the overnight hours as the front
nears. Will continue with likely pops (70%) for this system
overnight. Severe weather does not look likely, but storms could
produce some gusty winds. In addition PWAT values will rise to
around 1.8" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, storms will be very efficient rain producers. However,
this system should be pretty progressive, so do not think flooding
will be a major issue, though some ponding of water could occur in
low lying and flood prone areas. The rain will move out as the front
swings through Friday with Friday night expected to be dry. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front and dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Thursday will remain warm with highs in the 80s.
Friday`s highs will be tricky with the rain, clouds, and front
moving through. For now it looks like highs will be in the lower
70s. Much cooler air will push in behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 40s Saturday morning and will be even cooler Sunday
morning in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will top out in
the lower to mid 60s. A gradual warm up will then begin through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Main concern remains with this TAF package remains fog potential at
KLEX and KBWG.  The overall trend in guidance has been to back off
on the fog potential this morning at these locations.  This seems
reasonable given the amount of drier air that was able to work in
Monday afternoon.  Will leave the period of LIFR vsbys in at KBWG,
but will shorten the timeframe of the TEMPO group.  KLEX will likely
remain VFR and have removed their MVFR TEMPO group given the latest
guidance trends and dewpoint depressions still around 6 degrees.

Any fog will quickly burn off later this morning, leaving VFR
conditions.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NNW, with
just a few passing clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300503
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main focus in the short term is where fog will form overnight. Dry
dewpoints made a surge southeastward across the region late this
afternoon. Still think the most concentrated areas of fog will be in
rivers and valleys across our southeastern counties. Have tweaked
the grids a little to match the observational trends towards where
the fog has the best chance to form. Otherwise should be a quiet
night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region through Tues
night with upper level ridging moving in late Tues.  This will
result in dry conditions with temps slightly above seasonal normals.
Low temps tonight and Tues night will be in the low to mid 50s with
tonight being slightly cooler.  Tuesday`s highs will be in the lower
80s...similar to today.

The one forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility
of fog perhaps dense in some areas late tonight into Tues morning.
This morning many places across the area saw fog with patchy dense
fog in some spots.  Tonight with light winds, a decent inversion,
and lingering low level moisture, fog will again be possible
especially over south central KY where the least amount of light dry
air advection/mix down has occurred this afternoon.  Thus, will
paint south central KY with areas of fog keeping in mind that some
patchy dense fog will again be possible.  Over north central KY
patchy fog will be possible with a lesser chance for fog development
over southern Indiana (the driest area).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The long term period will begin with weak ridging aloft and winds
shifting to southerly as surface high pressure shifts east.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain above normal
for this time of year. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday
morning.

We will see a change in the pattern as an upper level trough builds
in through the second half of the week. A cold front associated with
this system will move through Friday bringing with it the best
chance for rain in quite some time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to develop in the warm sector ahead of this
system Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation during
the day will be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

Rain chances will increase into the overnight hours as the front
nears. Will continue with likely pops (70%) for this system
overnight. Severe weather does not look likely, but storms could
produce some gusty winds. In addition PWAT values will rise to
around 1.8" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, storms will be very efficient rain producers. However,
this system should be pretty progressive, so do not think flooding
will be a major issue, though some ponding of water could occur in
low lying and flood prone areas. The rain will move out as the front
swings through Friday with Friday night expected to be dry. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front and dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Thursday will remain warm with highs in the 80s.
Friday`s highs will be tricky with the rain, clouds, and front
moving through. For now it looks like highs will be in the lower
70s. Much cooler air will push in behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 40s Saturday morning and will be even cooler Sunday
morning in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will top out in
the lower to mid 60s. A gradual warm up will then begin through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

Main concern remains with this TAF package remains fog potential at
KLEX and KBWG.  The overall trend in guidance has been to back off
on the fog potential this morning at these locations.  This seems
reasonable given the amount of drier air that was able to work in
Monday afternoon.  Will leave the period of LIFR vsbys in at KBWG,
but will shorten the timeframe of the TEMPO group.  KLEX will likely
remain VFR and have removed their MVFR TEMPO group given the latest
guidance trends and dewpoint depressions still around 6 degrees.

Any fog will quickly burn off later this morning, leaving VFR
conditions.  Winds will continue to be light out of the NNW, with
just a few passing clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...AND MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND UPSTREAM REPORTING
WINDS OF 3KTS OR LESS CONTINUING TO AFFIRM WEAK ADVECTION AT BEST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST SOME OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOG BLANKET LIKELY TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...AND MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND UPSTREAM REPORTING
WINDS OF 3KTS OR LESS CONTINUING TO AFFIRM WEAK ADVECTION AT BEST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST SOME OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOG BLANKET LIKELY TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...AND MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND UPSTREAM REPORTING
WINDS OF 3KTS OR LESS CONTINUING TO AFFIRM WEAK ADVECTION AT BEST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST SOME OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOG BLANKET LIKELY TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300243 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A GOOD BET TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR...WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S
AND LOWER 60S...AND MANY OBSERVATIONS NEAR AND UPSTREAM REPORTING
WINDS OF 3KTS OR LESS CONTINUING TO AFFIRM WEAK ADVECTION AT BEST.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO ADJUST SOME OF THE LOW
TEMPERATURES UP A BIT BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS
AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED FOG BLANKET LIKELY TO INHIBIT SOME OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300041 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300041 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AND AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES
ARE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR
JUST UPSTREAM...HOWEVER THE ADVECTION IS WEAK. DEW POINTS ARE STILL
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH MID 50S DEW
POINTS WORKING INTO THE I-64 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THESE TRENDS...HAVE
BEEFED UP THE FOG FOR TONIGHT. SO FAR THE LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
REASONABLE...HOWEVER WE WILL TAKE A BETTER LOOK AT THESE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 841 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 292319
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
719 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main focus in the short term is where fog will form overnight. Dry
dewpoints made a surge southeastward across the region late this
afternoon. Still think the most concentrated areas of fog will be in
rivers and valleys across our southeastern counties. Have tweaked
the grids a little to match the observational trends towards where
the fog has the best chance to form. Otherwise should be a quiet
night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region through Tues
night with upper level ridging moving in late Tues.  This will
result in dry conditions with temps slightly above seasonal normals.
Low temps tonight and Tues night will be in the low to mid 50s with
tonight being slightly cooler.  Tuesday`s highs will be in the lower
80s...similar to today.

The one forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility
of fog perhaps dense in some areas late tonight into Tues morning.
This morning many places across the area saw fog with patchy dense
fog in some spots.  Tonight with light winds, a decent inversion,
and lingering low level moisture, fog will again be possible
especially over south central KY where the least amount of light dry
air advection/mix down has occurred this afternoon.  Thus, will
paint south central KY with areas of fog keeping in mind that some
patchy dense fog will again be possible.  Over north central KY
patchy fog will be possible with a lesser chance for fog development
over southern Indiana (the driest area).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The long term period will begin with weak ridging aloft and winds
shifting to southerly as surface high pressure shifts east.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain above normal
for this time of year. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday
morning.

We will see a change in the pattern as an upper level trough builds
in through the second half of the week. A cold front associated with
this system will move through Friday bringing with it the best
chance for rain in quite some time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to develop in the warm sector ahead of this
system Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation during
the day will be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

Rain chances will increase into the overnight hours as the front
nears. Will continue with likely pops (70%) for this system
overnight. Severe weather does not look likely, but storms could
produce some gusty winds. In addition PWAT values will rise to
around 1.8" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, storms will be very efficient rain producers. However,
this system should be pretty progressive, so do not think flooding
will be a major issue, though some ponding of water could occur in
low lying and flood prone areas. The rain will move out as the front
swings through Friday with Friday night expected to be dry. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front and dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Thursday will remain warm with highs in the 80s.
Friday`s highs will be tricky with the rain, clouds, and front
moving through. For now it looks like highs will be in the lower
70s. Much cooler air will push in behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 40s Saturday morning and will be even cooler Sunday
morning in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will top out in
the lower to mid 60s. A gradual warm up will then begin through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main concern remains fog potential at BWG/LEX. The latter site had
some much drier air mix down this afternoon, dewpoints down to the
low 50s. With forecast lows in the mid 50s, have backed off on MVFR
conditions there towards daybreak. BWG dropped in the last hour or
two as well, but is still right at forecast lows. Considered bumping
up the worst conditions, but climatology in these situations would
indicate a lot of jumping around from MVFR to LIFR conditions at
that terminal around daybreak. In addition, LAV guidance still calls
for the worst category. Conditions should improve quickly after
sunrise.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292257
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.(Previous) Update...
UPDATE Under ridging aloft, drier air mixed down to the sfc this
afternoon, more than yesterday. This may reduce the
intensity/coverage of any overnight patchy fog, especially in the
ern half of the region. Therefore, we have downplayed the
overnight fog forecast somewhat. Also updated the aviation
discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of
our region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into Canada,
leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of energy will
be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may result in a quick
ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region between 06Z and 12Z
Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 292257
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.(Previous) Update...
UPDATE Under ridging aloft, drier air mixed down to the sfc this
afternoon, more than yesterday. This may reduce the
intensity/coverage of any overnight patchy fog, especially in the
ern half of the region. Therefore, we have downplayed the
overnight fog forecast somewhat. Also updated the aviation
discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of
our region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into Canada,
leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of energy will
be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may result in a quick
ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region between 06Z and 12Z
Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 292257
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.(Previous) Update...
UPDATE Under ridging aloft, drier air mixed down to the sfc this
afternoon, more than yesterday. This may reduce the
intensity/coverage of any overnight patchy fog, especially in the
ern half of the region. Therefore, we have downplayed the
overnight fog forecast somewhat. Also updated the aviation
discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of
our region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into Canada,
leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of energy will
be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may result in a quick
ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region between 06Z and 12Z
Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 292257
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
557 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.(Previous) Update...
UPDATE Under ridging aloft, drier air mixed down to the sfc this
afternoon, more than yesterday. This may reduce the
intensity/coverage of any overnight patchy fog, especially in the
ern half of the region. Therefore, we have downplayed the
overnight fog forecast somewhat. Also updated the aviation
discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of
our region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into Canada,
leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of energy will
be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may result in a quick
ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region between 06Z and 12Z
Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 555 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Patchy vsby restrictions in fog is possible tonight, like previous
nights. Will monitor evening trends, however, as drier air did
work down the column late this afternoon. Otherwise VFR continues
with few-sct diurnal cu developing in 4-5K foot range again tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 292139
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
437 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Under ridging aloft, drier air mixed down to the sfc this afternoon,
more than yesterday. This may reduce the intensity/coverage of any
overnight patchy fog, especially in the ern half of the region.
Therefore, we have downplayed the overnight fog forecast somewhat.
Also updated the aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of
our region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into Canada,
leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of energy will
be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may result in a quick
ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region between 06Z and 12Z
Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 437 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The primary challenge for the TAFs is vsby restrictions due to
patchy fog overnight, though the morning atmospheric column may be
drier than the previous morning, especially in the ern half of the
region, due to drier air mixing down to the sfc this afternoon.
Under the same air mass and light wind regime, it is still probable
that KCGI will fog in again with 1/2 to 1/4 vsby for at least
several hours, and LIFR cigs are still possible. Elsewhere, patchy
MVFR/IFR fog may occur, mainly in the general vicinity of bodies of
water. Vsbys should begin to improve noticeably by 1230Z-1300Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB









000
FXUS63 KPAH 292139
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
437 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Under ridging aloft, drier air mixed down to the sfc this afternoon,
more than yesterday. This may reduce the intensity/coverage of any
overnight patchy fog, especially in the ern half of the region.
Therefore, we have downplayed the overnight fog forecast somewhat.
Also updated the aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of
our region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into Canada,
leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of energy will
be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may result in a quick
ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region between 06Z and 12Z
Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 437 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The primary challenge for the TAFs is vsby restrictions due to
patchy fog overnight, though the morning atmospheric column may be
drier than the previous morning, especially in the ern half of the
region, due to drier air mixing down to the sfc this afternoon.
Under the same air mass and light wind regime, it is still probable
that KCGI will fog in again with 1/2 to 1/4 vsby for at least
several hours, and LIFR cigs are still possible. Elsewhere, patchy
MVFR/IFR fog may occur, mainly in the general vicinity of bodies of
water. Vsbys should begin to improve noticeably by 1230Z-1300Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB










000
FXUS63 KJKL 292025 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292025 CCA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292010
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The PAH forecast area will be under general mid level ridging and
a high sfc pressure/weak sfc pressure gradient scenario for the
next 2 1/2 days or so. Meanwhile, a weak sfc boundary, driven by a
departing Great Lakes upper level low, will flirt with our
northernmost tier of counties late Tue/early Wed, with only a
slight increase in cloud cover the only expected effect. By Wed
afternoon, low level return flow is forecast to re-establish
itself ahead of a robust frontal system approaching from the
Plains.

However, the latest models indicate that pcpn in far nwrn parts of our
region will likely be delayed until after midnight Wed night at
the earliest. This will be due to initial mid level shrtwv energy
digging through the nrn Plains late Tue, than departing into
Canada, leaving swrly flow aloft in place. The main ewd push of
energy will be a full latitudinal shrtwv Wed night, which may
result in a quick ramp-up of PoPs for the wrn half of the region
between 06Z and 12Z Thu, but certainly after that.

Temps were peaking slightly above forecast values today, and
under a similar (weak) wind field and air mass, the same thing
should happen on Tue. The forecast was adjusted accordingly from
the blended model output. Patchy fog, some dense, is still
possible tonight around the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Fairly high confidence in the extended forecast period.

The period will begin with a significant short wave and associated
cold front ejecting eastward through the plains, reaching the MS
River Valley late Thu or Thu night. Timing is still a bit
questionable with the features, but most models are within 3-6 hours
of each other. Also, still is some question as to whether the mid
level short wave can attain a bit of a negative tilt before reaching
our area, but forcing and moisture look more than sufficient to
support squall line development to our west Thursday. This line of
convection should translate east into our forecast area Thursday
night. The degree of shear and leftover instability will likely
determine how strong and storms become, but the possibility of some
type of convective watch box cannot be ruled out. Worth keeping an
eye on though. Higher PWATS pooling ahead of the system may also
contribute to a potential for some locally heavy rainfall.

Cold front will pass through the region by sunrise Friday, and usher
much cooler and drier air in for the Friday through Sunday time
frame. Could be quite chilly at night over the weekend, with many
areas well down into the 40s both mornings. Would not be surprised
if most locations get no higher that the 60s Saturday, or if we end
up with some 30s Saturday night up along the I-64 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

The primary challenge for the TAFs is vsby restrictions due to
patchy fog overnight. Under the same air mass and light wind
regime, it is likely that KCGI will fog in again with 1/2 to 1/4
vsby for at least several hours, and LIFR cigs are possible.
Elsewhere, patchy fog may occur, some possibly dense, mainly in the
general vicinity of bodies of water. Vsbys should begin to improve
noticeably by 13Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.
THE CONSENSUS VIEW IS FOR A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE MOST EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD SEE FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS SCATTERED LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY THIS EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONCE
THIS INITIAL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FAIRLY
WELL DEVELOPED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA
FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT...WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY...AND LOWS IN THE 50S
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG WILL BE ON TAP
AGAIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AS WELL...PARTICULARLY NEAR RIVERS
AND LAKES. ALL IN ALL THE FOLKS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS IT GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM AN
AXIS OF THE MID SOUTH TO GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEPART THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND
MOVE ON OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC. AT THE SAME TIME...ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
THE WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE FROM THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EAST AND APPROACH THE MS
VALLEY REGION AND UPPER MIDWEST REGION BY THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD DEPART INTO THE ATLANTIC TO END
THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DEEP
EARLY FALL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS...THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
EASTERN KY ON THU NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SECONDARY
SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING AND USHER IN POSSIBLY THE COLDEST AIR MASS SO FAR
THIS FALL. MODELS ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE TROUGH IN
NW FLOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL BRING MILD...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WED INTO THU. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE LOW...TO PERHAPS MID 80S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS BOTH DAYS.
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...A NON IDEAL DOWNSLOPING
COMPONENT TO THE WIND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME OF THE HIGHER READINGS IN
VALLEYS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE VA BORDER AT LOCATIONS SUCH AS
HARLAN...CUMBERLAND...WHITESBURG...JENKINS...AND ELKHORN CITY. THE
PATTERN FAVORS A MEDIUM TO LARGE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT ON WED NIGHT AS
WELL. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS A RATHER
SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON THU NIGHT.

RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD
BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE TO THE REGION FROM LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...A SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
MOVE INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION ON TUE NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAKE
ON A NEGATIVE TILT...LEADING TO BETTER FORCING AND CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS EVENT. THE ECMWF
REMAINS A BIT FASTER BRINGING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDER LATE THU NIGHT...DESPITE THE
RATHER UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY LINGER INTO FRI MORNING FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM MIDDAY FRI
TO FRI EVENING...WINDS COULD ALSO BE GUSTY...BUT THE GFS RUNS ARE A
BIT STRONGER WITH WINDS ALOFT AND MOMENTUM MIX DOWN POTENTIAL
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF RUNS. LIKELY POPS RESULTED FROM THE MODEL
BLEND...WITH THIS LIKELY BECOMING A CATEGORICAL EVENT AT SOME POINT
AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.

THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT APPROACHES
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH RECENT ECMWF RUNS SLOWER AND DEEPER/LOWER WITH
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY FROM FRI NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AND COLDER WITH THE AIR MASS BY AT LEAST 3 TO 5
DEGREES C FROM LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY ON SUNDAY. THIS LEADS TO
THE DISPARITY IN GUIDANCE MAX T FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY OF AT LEAST 8 TO
13 DEGREES FROM COLDEST TO WARMEST AND MIN T DIFFERENCES ON THE
ORDER OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE. OVERNIGHT MINS...ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT
MAY LARGELY DEPEND ON THE DEGREES OF CLEARING OR THE PRESENCE OF ANY
LOW AND MID CLOUDS AS SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
TROUGH. A STRONGER WAVE ON SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY SHOULD BRING AT
LEAST MORE CLOUD COVER IF NOT THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
THE COLDER ECMWF SOLUTIONS WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER SAT
NIGHT...WHILE THE WARMER GFS IS ALSO MORE MOIST...SO CONFIDENCE IN
MIN T IS NOT HIGH. WITH CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED...MIN T MAY BE MORE
ELEVATION/COLD AIR ADVECTION DEPENDENT...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING...THUS RIDGETOPS AND THE HIGHEST TERRAIN COULD END UP BEING
THE COLDEST ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT.

GIVEN THAT THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A THEME OF THE GFS WARMER AND
THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER FROM SAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
MODEL BLEND SEEMED TO BE THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION AT THIS TIME. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THE PERIOD BEGINS MILD AND THEN ENDS WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291855
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region through Tues
night with upper level ridging moving in late Tues.  This will
result in dry conditions with temps slightly above seasonal normals.
Low temps tonight and Tues night will be in the low to mid 50s with
tonight being slightly cooler.  Tuesday`s highs will be in the lower
80s...similar to today.

The one forecast concern in the short term period is the possibility
of fog perhaps dense in some areas late tonight into Tues morning.
This morning many places across the area saw fog with patchy dense
fog in some spots.  Tonight with light winds, a decent inversion,
and lingering low level moisture, fog will again be possible
especially over south central KY where the least amount of light dry
air advection/mix down has occurred this afternoon.  Thus, will
paint south central KY with areas of fog keeping in mind that some
patchy dense fog will again be possible.  Over north central KY
patchy fog will be possible with a lesser chance for fog development
over southern Indiana (the driest area).

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The long term period will begin with weak ridging aloft and winds
shifting to southerly as surface high pressure shifts east.
Temperatures Wednesday and Wednesday night will remain above normal
for this time of year. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 70s
to lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday
morning.

We will see a change in the pattern as an upper level trough builds
in through the second half of the week. A cold front associated with
this system will move through Friday bringing with it the best
chance for rain in quite some time. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms look to develop in the warm sector ahead of this
system Thursday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation during
the day will be across southern Indiana and west central Kentucky.

Rain chances will increase into the overnight hours as the front
nears. Will continue with likely pops (70%) for this system
overnight. Severe weather does not look likely, but storms could
produce some gusty winds. In addition PWAT values will rise to
around 1.8" which is above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Thus, storms will be very efficient rain producers. However,
this system should be pretty progressive, so do not think flooding
will be a major issue, though some ponding of water could occur in
low lying and flood prone areas. The rain will move out as the front
swings through Friday with Friday night expected to be dry. Surface
high pressure will build in behind the front and dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Thursday will remain warm with highs in the 80s.
Friday`s highs will be tricky with the rain, clouds, and front
moving through. For now it looks like highs will be in the lower
70s. Much cooler air will push in behind the front. Lows will be in
the upper 40s Saturday morning and will be even cooler Sunday
morning in the lower to mid 40s. Highs on Saturday will top out in
the lower to mid 60s. A gradual warm up will then begin through the
second half of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The main TAF concern will be fog tonight at BWG/LEX.  Drying is
occurring near the SDF/LEX terminals this afternoon with slight
drying expected later this afternoon at BWG.  This slightly drier
air will be a critical element to tonight`s fog forecast.  Because
of the drying at SDF/LEX think that any fog formation will be light
or none existent late tonight into tomorrow morning.  At worst, LEX
looks to dip into the MVFR cat for a few hours around dawn.  Enough
low level moisture is forecast to remain near BWG for fog in the
IFR/LIFR cat.  MOS guidance continues to hit fog hard at BWG, and
with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak.  Other than fog at LEX/BWG late tonight into
tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291738
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
138 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1050 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Most of the fog has dissipated so will remove from the forecast.
Skies will become mostly sunny throughout the rest of the day with
highs in the lower 80s.

Issued 755 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated the forecast to include patchy fog with patchy dense fog in
a few areas.  Observations across the region reveal fog mainly in
areas where it rained yesterday and in typical fog prone locations.
Some observations and webcams indicated fog was dense at times in a
few locations.  Thus, issued an SPS for patchy dense fog through
10am.  Fog should dissipate by mid morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The main TAF concern will be fog tonight at BWG/LEX.  Drying is
occurring near the SDF/LEX terminals this afternoon with slight
drying expected later this afternoon at BWG.  This slightly drier
air will be a critical element to tonight`s fog forecast.  Because
of the drying at SDF/LEX think that any fog formation will be light
or none existent late tonight into tomorrow morning.  At worst, LEX
looks to dip into the MVFR cat for a few hours around dawn.  Enough
low level moisture is forecast to remain near BWG for fog in the
IFR/LIFR cat.  MOS guidance continues to hit fog hard at BWG, and
with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak.  Other than fog at LEX/BWG late tonight into
tomorrow morning, VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. SKIES HAVE BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FALLING FROM
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES PAST. ANY EXISTING SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR THE DAY. SKIES HAVE BECOME
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
BROAD FIELD OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN FALLING FROM
SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WE COULD SEE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHOWERS POP UP FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES PAST. ANY EXISTING SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNSET...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
NO ZONE UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. A BROAD FIELD OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO
REVEALS THAT A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES HAVE ALSO
POPPED UP. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE SUN HEATS THINGS UP. THE SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY AND BE GONE JUST AFTER SUN SET. AREAS OF MOSTLY VALLEY FOG
CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE DENSEST FOG. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVERNIGHT...IT IS LIKELY THAT
ALL THE TAF SITES EXCEPT SYM WILL SEE DENSE FOG BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z
TOMORROW. THE FOG SHOULD BE GONE BY BETWEEN 10 AND 1030 AM ON TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1107 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1050 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Most of the fog has dissipated so will remove from the forecast.
Skies will become mostly sunny throughout the rest of the day with
highs in the lower 80s.

Issued 755 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated the forecast to include patchy fog with patchy dense fog in
a few areas.  Observations across the region reveal fog mainly in
areas where it rained yesterday and in typical fog prone locations.
Some observations and webcams indicated fog was dense at times in a
few locations.  Thus, issued an SPS for patchy dense fog through
10am.  Fog should dissipate by mid morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1107 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1050 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Most of the fog has dissipated so will remove from the forecast.
Skies will become mostly sunny throughout the rest of the day with
highs in the lower 80s.

Issued 755 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated the forecast to include patchy fog with patchy dense fog in
a few areas.  Observations across the region reveal fog mainly in
areas where it rained yesterday and in typical fog prone locations.
Some observations and webcams indicated fog was dense at times in a
few locations.  Thus, issued an SPS for patchy dense fog through
10am.  Fog should dissipate by mid morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1107 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1050 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Most of the fog has dissipated so will remove from the forecast.
Skies will become mostly sunny throughout the rest of the day with
highs in the lower 80s.

Issued 755 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated the forecast to include patchy fog with patchy dense fog in
a few areas.  Observations across the region reveal fog mainly in
areas where it rained yesterday and in typical fog prone locations.
Some observations and webcams indicated fog was dense at times in a
few locations.  Thus, issued an SPS for patchy dense fog through
10am.  Fog should dissipate by mid morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291507
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1107 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1050 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Most of the fog has dissipated so will remove from the forecast.
Skies will become mostly sunny throughout the rest of the day with
highs in the lower 80s.

Issued 755 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated the forecast to include patchy fog with patchy dense fog in
a few areas.  Observations across the region reveal fog mainly in
areas where it rained yesterday and in typical fog prone locations.
Some observations and webcams indicated fog was dense at times in a
few locations.  Thus, issued an SPS for patchy dense fog through
10am.  Fog should dissipate by mid morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291450
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CIGS THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING SOME OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. AT THIS
TIME...NONE OF THE TAF SITES ARE REPORTING. SME STILL HAD A CIG OF
300 FEET AT 1445Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY
NOON TODAY. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291450
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CIGS THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING SOME OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. AT THIS
TIME...NONE OF THE TAF SITES ARE REPORTING. SME STILL HAD A CIG OF
300 FEET AT 1445Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY
NOON TODAY. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291202
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MANY LOCATIONS
WERE IFR OR WORSE DUE TO FOG. AREAS WHICH TEND TO BE MORE DIFFICULT
TO FOG IN WERE LARGELY VFR. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS
MORNING...LEAVING VFR TO LAST INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER HEATING TAKES PLACE TODAY...THEN DIE OUT TOWARD
EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT...SPREADING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291202
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

CONDITIONS VARIED WIDELY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MANY LOCATIONS
WERE IFR OR WORSE DUE TO FOG. AREAS WHICH TEND TO BE MORE DIFFICULT
TO FOG IN WERE LARGELY VFR. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE THIS
MORNING...LEAVING VFR TO LAST INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP AFTER HEATING TAKES PLACE TODAY...THEN DIE OUT TOWARD
EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT. VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT...SPREADING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291159
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
759 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 755 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Updated the forecast to include patchy fog with patchy dense fog in
a few areas.  Observations across the region reveal fog mainly in
areas where it rained yesterday and in typical fog prone locations.
Some observations and webcams indicated fog was dense at times in a
few locations.  Thus, issued an SPS for patchy dense fog through
10am.  Fog should dissipate by mid morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 291119
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.

Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.

Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.

The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.

In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

With the 12z Monday issuance, kept a mention of MIFG in place for
KCGI and KPAH. Dealing with ground fog or an elevated and shallow
fog layer overnight. Attempted to deal with this feature with a
higher prevailing visibility with embedded patches of dense ground
fog. The remaining groups basically account for variance of wind
from calm to a prevailing wind direction during maximum mixing,
then back again to calm winds with the development of an inversion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 291119
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.

Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.

Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.

The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.

In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 619 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

With the 12z Monday issuance, kept a mention of MIFG in place for
KCGI and KPAH. Dealing with ground fog or an elevated and shallow
fog layer overnight. Attempted to deal with this feature with a
higher prevailing visibility with embedded patches of dense ground
fog. The remaining groups basically account for variance of wind
from calm to a prevailing wind direction during maximum mixing,
then back again to calm winds with the development of an inversion.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Smith







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291112
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291112
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291112
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291112
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
712 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Weak surface gradient in place means that fog will be the main
challenge, initially in BWG and again toward daybreak Tuesday in BWG
and LEX.

BWG has been up and down multiple times, from MVFR to below field
mins and back. Will most likely initialize that with a TEMPO for the
first hour, but will need to be an issuance time decision. SDF and
LEX have had enough mid-level cloud cover to preclude fog formation
and will initialize VFR.

Light northerly flow later this morning and through the afternoon
will drag slightly drier air into the region. However, we are
setting up for perhaps an even more significant fog event on Tuesday
morning. Low-level winds remain quite weak, skies will be clear most
of the night, and min temps are forecast to dip a few degrees below
this afternoon`s dewpoints. MOS guidance is hitting fog hard in BWG,
and with good agreement between the GFS and NAM MOS, will take
visibilities to MVFR after midnight, and sock in with VLIFR a couple
hrs before daybreak. LEX should not be as foggy, but still expect to
go MVFR for a few hrs. Heat island effects should keep SDF
unrestricted.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 290818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.

Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.

Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.

The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.

In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.

A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS
FIRE WEATHER...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 290818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Main challenges for this short term forecast period will be first
period (today) temperatures and relative humidity and timing of
precipitation into the WFO PAH CWA near or after midnight going
into Thursday morning.

Short term guidance indicating a slightly cooler bias with maximum
temperatures for this afternoon high temperatures. These
temperatures are approximately 3-5 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS forecasts. The key balance will be the combination of dry/cold air
advection and subsidence of air parcels below 850 mb. At this
time, am not inclined to go a complete 30 degree spread from
morning minimum temperatures, but at least a 27 degree Fahrenheit
temperatures spread. The 13km RAP guidance is the closest to this
solution for maximum temperatures today.

Ridging across the WFO PAH forecast will remain dominant through
at least 15z-18z (10am-1pm CDT) Wednesday, before cyclonic flow,
increased large scale, lift, differential vorticity, and
acceleration of low level moisture develop and move close to the
area. The main trough axis, near the U.S./Canadian border, near
North Dakota, will be in the process of enhancing/deepening along
the western limb of the trough, deepening the low. This will likely
slow the southeastward movement of the low until along or after
midnight going into Thursday morning. The forecast may still be
too aggressive in timing, but will keep chance PoPs going over the
northwest 1/2 of the WFO PAH CWA until at least 4 am Thursday
morning, before ramping up to match the Thursday daytime PoP
forecast in the extended part of this forecast package.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Above average forecast confidence continues in the long term as
latest model solutions vary slightly with timing and coverage of
the upcoming weather event, but for the most part are still in the
same ball park.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as a storm system approaches from the central plains. As
mentioned above, models are slightly different with timing and
placement of selected parameters of this system, but right now the
best timing and coverage area-wide for showers and thunderstorms
should be Thursday night as the system actually crosses the region.

The cold front should be entering the far western portions of our
CWA around 7 PM Thursday and clearing the far southeast sections
around 7 AM Friday. Precipitation chances Friday morning rapidly
diminish from west to east as the front moves off to the east.

In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure and northwest
flow aloft will usher in a very cool airmass which will keep things
dry and temperatures below normal through the end of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.

A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

Today and Tuesday will probably be the most ideal time period for
fire agency plans for prescribed burns. Should dry air advection
develop as advertised today, widespread minimum relative humidity
values will fall into the 23 to 33 percent range. Ten hour fuel
moisture`s have been staying above at least 9 or 10 percent which
should moderate the speed of fuel drying with tolerance levels.
Mixing heights today and Tuesday will be ideal between 11 am and 9
pm CDT, but diminish from the West as the impact of the upper
ridge dominates over Missouri late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Transport winds and 20 foot winds should remain below 15 mph, but
become more variable in direction on Tuesday and Wednesday. All
factor should remain below critical fire danger levels the next
several days.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS
FIRE WEATHER...Smith







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER HEATING TAKES
PLACE ON MONDAY...THEN DIE OUT TOWARD EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AFTER HEATING TAKES
PLACE ON MONDAY...THEN DIE OUT TOWARD EVENING. HOWEVER...THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 290709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 290709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 290709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Low-amplitude upper pattern continues to be a slow-moving one as it
remains disconnected from the stronger westerly flow well to the
north. Weak trof axis will push east of the lower Ohio Valley today,
giving way to shortwave ridging that will persist into the middle of
the week. Warm and dry conditions will be the rule, leaving us with
mainly a temp and fog forecast.

Daytime temps both today and Tuesday will run several degrees above
normal. Will favor the slightly warmer GFS MOS given how max temps
have overachieved lately. Favorable radiational cooling conditions
tonight will allow temps to drop very close to seasonal normals.
Given the very weak low-level flow, and forecast mins several
degrees below this afternoon`s forecast dewpoints, fog seems to be a
good bet toward daybreak Tuesday. The ability of NW winds this
afternoon to mix down dry air will make all the difference in fog
potential. Will go with areas of fog in the grids and zones, but
will let the day crew evaluate whether dense fog will need to be
mentioned.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a weak ridge over the Ohio Valley, with a strong upstream
trough located over the western CONUS.  This trough will build into
the region through the long term period, marking a pattern shift
from the warm and dry weather to a cooler/wetter regime by the end
of the work week.

Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night will continue to
feature benign weather as the upper-ridge remains in place.  This
regime will make for temperatures continuing to run above normal, as
highs top out in the low to mid 80s on Wednesday, with lows in the
50s and lower 60s.

Clouds will begin to increase on Thursday as the system approaches
from the west.  Warm-air advection associated with the warm conveyor
belt (30-40 kt low-level jet) of this system will spark a few
showers/storms a early as Thursday afternoon across portions of
southern IN, spreading into portions of Kentucky late Thursday
afternoon/evening.  Mid-level lapse rates look quite poor during
this timeframe which will limit overall instability and deep-layer
shear will be on the order of about 30 knots.  Therefore, do not
expect any significant severe weather out of these storms Thursday.

The cold front and associated upper-level kinematics will sweep
through the region overnight Thursday into Friday.  Dprog/dt shows
the trend has been to speed this system up, now pushing the bulk of
the precip through overnight Friday.  Given the timing, guidance
suggests instability along the front will be waning as it pushes
in.  Given surface moisture/temperature advection will not be that
strong ahead of the front, it appears we should decouple enough to
limit the potential for surface-based storms.  Therefore, while a
few bouts of gusty winds may be possible, think these storms will be
on the decline and becoming elevated as they push in, carrying just
a locally heavy rainfall threat.

Precipitation will push out by early Friday afternoon.  Will have to
continue to monitor the timing of fropa, as the slower GFS suggests
the atmosphere could destabilize early Friday afternoon over far
eastern portions of the FA before the front clears the area.  Given
the overall quicker trend in guidance, will lean away from this
solution for now.

In the wake of the front, much cooler air will push into the
region.  Highs Saturday will struggle to get out of the middle 60s.
Overnight lows Saturday night will be dependent on clouds/location
of the surface ridge.  However, if ideal radiational conditions can
be realized, lows in the upper 30s will certainly be possible in
some locations.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 290604
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WITH NEW AVIATION FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY
BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS AND POPS STILL LOOKED
REASONABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290604
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

WITH NEW AVIATION FORECAST...HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER THROUGH TUESDAY
BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL RUNS. TEMPS AND POPS STILL LOOKED
REASONABLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE VA BORDER AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THEY WERE LIGHT AND WILL REMAIN SO UNTIL THEY TAPER OFF ON
MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOG. ITS DEVELOPMENT WAS
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY IN VALLEYS AND BEGINNING TO SPREAD. TAF SITES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR OR LOWER BEFORE DAWN. FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290536
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did extend the isolated
shower mention across the northern third of the CWA for another few
hours. The best area of focus will generally be along the Ohio River
Valley through around Midnight where an inverted surface trough
continues to linger. May also get some upper level support from a
weak upper level disturbance that will roll through the region later
tonight. Most spots will remain dry outside of the weak and isolated
activity.

Previous update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290536
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did extend the isolated
shower mention across the northern third of the CWA for another few
hours. The best area of focus will generally be along the Ohio River
Valley through around Midnight where an inverted surface trough
continues to linger. May also get some upper level support from a
weak upper level disturbance that will roll through the region later
tonight. Most spots will remain dry outside of the weak and isolated
activity.

Previous update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290536
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did extend the isolated
shower mention across the northern third of the CWA for another few
hours. The best area of focus will generally be along the Ohio River
Valley through around Midnight where an inverted surface trough
continues to linger. May also get some upper level support from a
weak upper level disturbance that will roll through the region later
tonight. Most spots will remain dry outside of the weak and isolated
activity.

Previous update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290536
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did extend the isolated
shower mention across the northern third of the CWA for another few
hours. The best area of focus will generally be along the Ohio River
Valley through around Midnight where an inverted surface trough
continues to linger. May also get some upper level support from a
weak upper level disturbance that will roll through the region later
tonight. Most spots will remain dry outside of the weak and isolated
activity.

Previous update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

Main challenge overnight will be fog potential at BWG, where cirrus
shield has cleared within the last hour or two. Temps are progged to
just touch the crossover temperature, but latest MOS guidance is not
hitting the fog as hard as previous runs. High-resolution models
don`t seem to have a very good handle either. Will go with
prevailing MVFR and a TEMPO for IFR visibilities around daybreak.
SDF and LEX will not have as much time to radiate out due to the
lingering mid-level deck, and will have a harder time reaching
crossover temps. Will keep thos sites VFR.

Light W-NW winds expected late in the morning, along with scattered
diurnal cu as mixing picks up. Even better radiational cooling
conditions Monday night will open the door for significant
restrictions to visibility on Tuesday morning, especially in BWG.
Can`t rule out IFR Tuesday morning in LEX either, but that remains
beyond the scope of this TAF issuance.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 290444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.

A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 290444
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1144 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Little change to the existing forecast with the 06Z TAF issuance.
Early morning fog is the only concern, and that should only be an
issue at KCGI and KPAH. However, will have to monitor KEVV
closely, as they had showers all around, but not at, the terminal
early this evening.

A light north wind will mix down by late morning at all sites and
persist through the afternoon. With good radiational cooling
expected again Monday night, would not be surprised to see KCGI
with a reduction to visibility by 06Z Tuesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290252 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290252 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290252 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290252 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1052 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO MATCH UP WITH
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290104 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290104 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290104 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290104 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ALONG THE KY/VA/TN BORDER...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY INITIATING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WHERE
A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH IS NOSING IN FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
ACTIVITY...SLOWLY DIMINISHING IT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERRAIN SHOWERS SEEM TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF SCHEDULE...SO
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 904 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME
PATCHY LIFR FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE DEEPER RIVER
VALLEYS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z. THIS WILL LIKELY AVOID THE TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SJS...WHERE A PERIOD OF LIFR IS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO DROP CEILINGS
DOWN IN THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL RANGE AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290043
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did extend the isolated
shower mention across the northern third of the CWA for another few
hours. The best area of focus will generally be along the Ohio River
Valley through around Midnight where an inverted surface trough
continues to linger. May also get some upper level support from a
weak upper level disturbance that will roll through the region later
tonight. Most spots will remain dry outside of the weak and isolated
activity.

Previous update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast period, however
will have to deal with some visibility restrictions at BWG
overnight. Current radar and visible satellite imagery show some
very isolated showers generally along a surface boundary that
stretches across the lower Ohio River Valley. This activity is
expected to diminish over the next couple of hours with the loss of
heating. Showers are not expected to impact SDF or LEX.

Mainly clear skies are expected overnight with the only real concern
the visibility restrictions at BWG where mainly MVFR is expected,
and possibly a brief period of IFR. Otherwise, winds will shift to
the NW tomorrow with a few mid and high level clouds worth noting.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 290043
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 843 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did extend the isolated
shower mention across the northern third of the CWA for another few
hours. The best area of focus will generally be along the Ohio River
Valley through around Midnight where an inverted surface trough
continues to linger. May also get some upper level support from a
weak upper level disturbance that will roll through the region later
tonight. Most spots will remain dry outside of the weak and isolated
activity.

Previous update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast period, however
will have to deal with some visibility restrictions at BWG
overnight. Current radar and visible satellite imagery show some
very isolated showers generally along a surface boundary that
stretches across the lower Ohio River Valley. This activity is
expected to diminish over the next couple of hours with the loss of
heating. Showers are not expected to impact SDF or LEX.

Mainly clear skies are expected overnight with the only real concern
the visibility restrictions at BWG where mainly MVFR is expected,
and possibly a brief period of IFR. Otherwise, winds will shift to
the NW tomorrow with a few mid and high level clouds worth noting.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 282347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The isolated showers over portions of west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri will dissipate shortly with sunset. KCGI and KPAH will
see strong radiational cooling and subsequent fog development.
Based this forecast on local tendencies in the last few days. Look
for VLIFR conditions at KCGI, and more patchy ground fog at KPAH,
with prevailing MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, some cu may linger
through much of the night, and fog is not expected.

A light north wind will mix down at all terminals through the day
Monday, and just a few cu will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 282347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The isolated showers over portions of west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri will dissipate shortly with sunset. KCGI and KPAH will
see strong radiational cooling and subsequent fog development.
Based this forecast on local tendencies in the last few days. Look
for VLIFR conditions at KCGI, and more patchy ground fog at KPAH,
with prevailing MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, some cu may linger
through much of the night, and fog is not expected.

A light north wind will mix down at all terminals through the day
Monday, and just a few cu will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 282347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The isolated showers over portions of west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri will dissipate shortly with sunset. KCGI and KPAH will
see strong radiational cooling and subsequent fog development.
Based this forecast on local tendencies in the last few days. Look
for VLIFR conditions at KCGI, and more patchy ground fog at KPAH,
with prevailing MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, some cu may linger
through much of the night, and fog is not expected.

A light north wind will mix down at all terminals through the day
Monday, and just a few cu will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 282347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 647 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

The isolated showers over portions of west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri will dissipate shortly with sunset. KCGI and KPAH will
see strong radiational cooling and subsequent fog development.
Based this forecast on local tendencies in the last few days. Look
for VLIFR conditions at KCGI, and more patchy ground fog at KPAH,
with prevailing MVFR conditions. Elsewhere, some cu may linger
through much of the night, and fog is not expected.

A light north wind will mix down at all terminals through the day
Monday, and just a few cu will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282300
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast period, however
will have to deal with some visibility restrictions at BWG
overnight. Current radar and visible satellite imagery show some
very isolated showers generally along a surface boundary that
stretches across the lower Ohio River Valley. This activity is
expected to diminish over the next couple of hours with the loss of
heating. Showers are not expected to impact SDF or LEX.

Mainly clear skies are expected overnight with the only real concern
the visibility restrictions at BWG where mainly MVFR is expected,
and possibly a brief period of IFR. Otherwise, winds will shift to
the NW tomorrow with a few mid and high level clouds worth noting.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 282300
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 659 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Mainly VFR conditions expected through this forecast period, however
will have to deal with some visibility restrictions at BWG
overnight. Current radar and visible satellite imagery show some
very isolated showers generally along a surface boundary that
stretches across the lower Ohio River Valley. This activity is
expected to diminish over the next couple of hours with the loss of
heating. Showers are not expected to impact SDF or LEX.

Mainly clear skies are expected overnight with the only real concern
the visibility restrictions at BWG where mainly MVFR is expected,
and possibly a brief period of IFR. Otherwise, winds will shift to
the NW tomorrow with a few mid and high level clouds worth noting.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282138
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 538 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Updated the forecast to trim pops across south central KY. Latest
mesoanalysis shows best moisture convergence and instability along
the inverted surface trough axis which generally stretches along the
lower Ohio River Valley. Additionally, latest visible satellite
shows swelling cu in this area, with less impressive development
across portions of central and southern KY. Will just keep the
showers in the forecast for the next few hours across our north and
west, and will go dry with the loss of daytime heating later this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 281951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AS OF MID AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO REGION. A WEAK UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL
BORDER WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WAS
NEARING THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDED NORTH FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO MEANDER ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA REGION.
IN RATHER WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WEAK RETURNS ON RADAR...VERY
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...BUT THESE REMAIN RATHER SPARSE.

TONIGHT...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THE COMMONWEALTH. AT THE
SAME TIME...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WORK INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AS THE WEAK CLOSED LOW OPENS UP. THIS COMBINATION
SHOULD BRING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS WELL AS LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTHEASTERNMOST TIER OR TWO OF COUNTIES WHERE CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY OR MAY
NOT EXPERIENCE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MONDAY. THE DEEPEST THE MOISTURE WILL GET SHOULD BE EARLY ON MONDAY
AND AT THAT POINT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE WORKING ACROSS
THE REGION. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE GREATEST AT THAT
POINT...AND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WERE USED FOR MONDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. EVEN ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER... ONLY 40 PERCENT POPS WERE USED. MUCH DEEPER
MOISTURE AND ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST FROM THE CREST OF THE SMOKIES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES AND PIEDMONT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT ANY RIDGE/VALLEY
SPLIT POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CLEARING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH FOR ONE INITIALLY IN THE EVENING.
CLOUDS...LINGERING MOISTURE AND MORNING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD LIMIT MAX T ON MONDAY AND HAVE GENERALLY
UNDERCUT THE MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS ACROSS THIS REGION.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...WITH THE
AXIS DEPARTING TO THE EAST AROUND SUNSET ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN WORK ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH BEGINNING TO APPROACH
LATE. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SOME GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING OR
MIDDAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE CLOUDS MAY HANG ON EVEN
LONGER NEARER TO THE VA BORDER. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE
FOR A SMALL RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG...POSSIBLY
DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS...AND THE COLDEST MIN T IN THE VALLEYS NEAR AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY...WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON AS OF LATE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

THE MODELS WERE AGAIN IN PRETTY AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE
GENERAL LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE MID WESTERN CONUS...PRIMARILY OVER
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ANOTHER
WEATHER WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THIS
TIME...IN THE FORM OF A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL TAKE AWHILE TO REACH OUR AREA...AS THE RIDGE COULD BE QUITE
STRONG AND LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ONLY SLOWLY DISPLACED. IT APPEARS
THE UPPER PLAINS LOW WILL FINALLY GAIN ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO PUSH
EASTWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA...DRAGGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE WERE SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE MODELS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OVERALL THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
COLD FRONT. AS WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE ON THURSDAY...WE CAN EXPECTED A FLUX OF MOISTURE
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ONCE THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT ALONG IT. INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...SO ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER WAS INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD LIKELY DO SO
DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A STRONG
RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BEGIN THE
WEEKEND. THIS...ALONG WITH STRENGTH OF THE PARENT UPPER LOW...SHOULD
MAKE FOR A FAIRLY QUICK FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A weak trof of low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley may produce
some VFR cloud decks this afternoon. Other...mainly clear and calm
conditions should prevail through 18Z Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

High forecast confidence within this short5 term period.

High pressure will build back into the region early in the week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Only forecast issue we can see at this point is
the degree of fog formation late at night. Will go with at least
patchy fog tonight/early Monday to help cover for this concern.
Will also use a MOS blend for max/min temp forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

There is high confidence on a front coming through mid to late week.
However the exact timing and precip amounts have lower
confidence...especially considering the last few fropa`s that the
models indicated significant rain produced little to none as the
event neared.

The models continue to speed the system up with the 12z Sunday GFS
leading the pack as usual. I did speed up the arrival time by about
6 hours as well as the departure Friday morning. I did not go as
fast as the GFS but leaned that direction minus about 6 hours. Will
wait for the 12z Sunday ECMWF to make final call closer to press
time. I did enhance winds with this system a few knots above what
the superblend yielded. As previous forecaster did not introduce
diurnal chance Wednesday afternoon. However will monitor model
trends in case the slight capping in forecast soundings erodes.

Otherwise models continue to show a significant cool down in the
systems wake. This should take to or below normals for this time of
year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A weak trof of low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley may produce
some VFR cloud decks this afternoon. Other...mainly clear and calm
conditions should prevail through 18Z Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...GM






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281906
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281906
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281906
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281906
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
306 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Cumulus clouds have developed across the region this afternoon and
very isolated showers are showing up on radar. Some of these showers
are popping up in southern Indiana, so have spread pops across the
entire forecast area. Will continue to carry 20% chance through the
afternoon, but coverage will likely not even be this high. With
sunset any showers will dissipate. In addition the moisture with
this system will shift into eastern KY tonight. Dry conditions are
expected through the remainder of the forecast period.

An upper level trough will swing across the region overnight and
ridging aloft will start to build back in tomorrow into tomorrow
night. Winds will shift to northwesterly and then northerly
tomorrow. However, this is not expected to bring in cooler air as
temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today in the lower to
middle 80s. Lows tonight will be tricky and depend somewhat on how
fast clouds clear. In general they look to range from the upper 50s
to lower 60s. With clear skies tomorrow night, temperatures will be
cooler, dropping into the mid 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Brief upper level ridging will cross the area Tues/Wed resulting in
dry conditions and temps slightly above seasonal normals.  Expect
mostly sunny skies both days with highs topping out in the low to
mid 80s.

The main weather system in the long term is a strong cold front
progged to move through the area late Thurs night into Friday
morning.  Models have sped up the arrival of precip a bit on the 12Z
run with most models indicating that we could indeed see scattered
showers/storms Thurs afternoon ahead of the front.  Thus, trended
the precip window back into late Thurs afternoon for now.  The main
episode of showers/storms associated with this system looks to be
Thurs night into Friday morning and did go ahead and increase POPs
to 60-70% during that time frame.  As far as storm strength goes,
think we could see perhaps some strong cells with gusty winds on
Thurs afternoon/evening before the main convective line arrives.
Think the main threat with this system will be moderate to heavy
rains at times Thurs night as the main line moves through.  PWATs
jump to 1.7-1.8 inches which is 2 standard deviations above normal
for this time of year.  Antecedent ground conditions are dry but are
generally hard in nature which may combine with the heavy rains to
cause brief minor flooding issues.  This weather system looks to be
fairly quick moving with rains moving out from west to east Friday
during the day.

Behind the front, cool and dry conditions will be ushered in for the
weekend.  Expect high temps on Sat only in the 60s with Sunday highs
a bit warmer in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  Overnight lows will take a
dip into the 40s Sun morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281818 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE RECENT
TRENDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE TEMPS THE MOST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...AND THE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LED TO RAISING HIGHS A BIT IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND LOWER THEM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM JUST SW OF JKL TO LOZ TO NEAR EKQ. MEASURABLE RAIN..0.01
INCHES WAS RECORDED AT LOZ AS THESE PASSED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT AS WELL...BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TEMPERATURE RISE IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ALONG WITH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SPRINKLES
HAVE BEEN INSERTED INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...WITH CHANCES OF THESE BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX T WAS ALSO CUT BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF THE SPECTRUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INITIAL
SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT OF VIRGA BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BLENDING TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE VIRGA IS FALLING
INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
DRY AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP
TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WARRANTS A POP ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS AS TIME GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AFTER DAYS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE CONSENSUS
NOW IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERCOME BY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA. MODELS DO PAINT
ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SOME SHOWERS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB...WITH NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. REVISED POPS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AT ONLY 10 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TO NEAR
40 PERCENT BY THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WITH NO SURGE OF COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN THE
MODELS DECENT AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS A FAST MOVER...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLDER SURGE OF
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C BY SUNDAY MORNING. SAFE TO SAY IF THE
MODELS HOLD ON THIS COLD AIR...THIS WOULD BE THE COOLEST PERIOD WE
HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS FALL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE CONCERN GIVEN WE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME
LOSING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AS WE GET
CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281818 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE RECENT
TRENDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE TEMPS THE MOST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...AND THE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LED TO RAISING HIGHS A BIT IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND LOWER THEM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM JUST SW OF JKL TO LOZ TO NEAR EKQ. MEASURABLE RAIN..0.01
INCHES WAS RECORDED AT LOZ AS THESE PASSED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT AS WELL...BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TEMPERATURE RISE IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ALONG WITH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SPRINKLES
HAVE BEEN INSERTED INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...WITH CHANCES OF THESE BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX T WAS ALSO CUT BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF THE SPECTRUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INITIAL
SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT OF VIRGA BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BLENDING TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE VIRGA IS FALLING
INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
DRY AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP
TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WARRANTS A POP ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS AS TIME GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AFTER DAYS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE CONSENSUS
NOW IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERCOME BY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA. MODELS DO PAINT
ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SOME SHOWERS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB...WITH NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. REVISED POPS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AT ONLY 10 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TO NEAR
40 PERCENT BY THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WITH NO SURGE OF COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN THE
MODELS DECENT AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS A FAST MOVER...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLDER SURGE OF
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C BY SUNDAY MORNING. SAFE TO SAY IF THE
MODELS HOLD ON THIS COLD AIR...THIS WOULD BE THE COOLEST PERIOD WE
HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS FALL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE CONCERN GIVEN WE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME
LOSING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AS WE GET
CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281818 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE RECENT
TRENDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE TEMPS THE MOST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...AND THE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LED TO RAISING HIGHS A BIT IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND LOWER THEM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM JUST SW OF JKL TO LOZ TO NEAR EKQ. MEASURABLE RAIN..0.01
INCHES WAS RECORDED AT LOZ AS THESE PASSED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT AS WELL...BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TEMPERATURE RISE IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ALONG WITH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SPRINKLES
HAVE BEEN INSERTED INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...WITH CHANCES OF THESE BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX T WAS ALSO CUT BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF THE SPECTRUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INITIAL
SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT OF VIRGA BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BLENDING TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE VIRGA IS FALLING
INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
DRY AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP
TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WARRANTS A POP ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS AS TIME GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AFTER DAYS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE CONSENSUS
NOW IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERCOME BY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA. MODELS DO PAINT
ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SOME SHOWERS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB...WITH NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. REVISED POPS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AT ONLY 10 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TO NEAR
40 PERCENT BY THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WITH NO SURGE OF COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN THE
MODELS DECENT AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS A FAST MOVER...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLDER SURGE OF
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C BY SUNDAY MORNING. SAFE TO SAY IF THE
MODELS HOLD ON THIS COLD AIR...THIS WOULD BE THE COOLEST PERIOD WE
HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS FALL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE CONCERN GIVEN WE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME
LOSING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AS WE GET
CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281818 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
218 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS WERE UPDATED BASED ON THE RECENT
TRENDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SUPPRESSED THE TEMPS THE MOST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...AND THE LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THIS
LED TO RAISING HIGHS A BIT IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION AND LOWER THEM
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES ARE WORKING ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM JUST SW OF JKL TO LOZ TO NEAR EKQ. MEASURABLE RAIN..0.01
INCHES WAS RECORDED AT LOZ AS THESE PASSED. CLOUD COVER HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER PERSISTENT AS WELL...BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS...PARTICULARLY
IN THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE
TEMPERATURE RISE IN MOST LOCATIONS. SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED ALONG WITH POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SPRINKLES
HAVE BEEN INSERTED INTO THE GRIDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TWO THIRDS OF
THE CWA...WITH CHANCES OF THESE BEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY IN THE EVENING. MAX T WAS ALSO CUT BACK TOWARD THE
COLDER END OF THE SPECTRUM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE INITIAL
SLOW TEMPERATURE RISE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING...WITH A BIT OF VIRGA BEING
PICKED UP ON RADAR. HAVE UPDATED SKY COVER BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BLENDING TO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. THE VIRGA IS FALLING
INTO VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR...AND HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
DRY AT THIS POINT. SOME MODELS DO SHOW SOME LIGHT/SPOTTY PRECIP
TODAY...BUT AM NOT CONVINCED IT WARRANTS A POP ABOVE 10 PERCENT.
WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE TRENDS AS TIME GOES BY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AFTER DAYS OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS...MODELS HAVE FINALLY COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE CONSENSUS
NOW IS FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TO BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST. MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL LIKELY NOT BE OVERCOME BY TOP-DOWN MOISTENING...AND
STRATIFORM PRECIP NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA. MODELS DO PAINT
ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
SOME SHOWERS...BUT THEY SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB...WITH NO
THUNDER EXPECTED AND ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. REVISED POPS WILL PEAK
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AT ONLY 10 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NW COUNTIES TO NEAR
40 PERCENT BY THE VIRGINIA BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...SO CONFIDENCE IS MODEST WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...AND
SLOWLY PUSH EAST THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. WITH NO SURGE OF COOLER WEATHER
EXPECTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...PRODUCING OUR NEXT PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. GIVEN THE
MODELS DECENT AGREEMENT...POPS HAVE BEEN BUMPED UP INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY...MAINLY ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS SPED UP THE FRONT
SLIGHTLY...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL COME THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS A FAST MOVER...SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...A COLDER SURGE OF
AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL MEAN A PERIOD OF
COLDER WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...THE LATEST ECMWF HAS
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO 1C BY SUNDAY MORNING. SAFE TO SAY IF THE
MODELS HOLD ON THIS COLD AIR...THIS WOULD BE THE COOLEST PERIOD WE
HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS FALL. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT FROST/FREEZE CONCERN GIVEN WE MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME
LOSING THE CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CERTAINLY WORTH WATCHING AS WE GET
CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 18Z. HOWEVER...THE THREAT
OF PRECIP AT ANY GIVEN POINT LOOKS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. EVEN WITH THE PRECIP CHANCES...VFR CIGS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
3.5K AND 6KFT ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 281741
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For aviation section only.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A minor PoP and weather adjustment made along a line stretching
from Southwest of Paducah to northeast of Evansville to account
for pre-dawn shower activity along gradient of mid-level moisture
and instability. This activity should diminish in coverage within
an hour or two after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Although small, rain chances will still exist for the Pennyrile
Region of West Kentucky mainly this afternoon, along and east of
the Land Between the Lakes. The slowly ejecting low from Texas
moving northeast toward Arkansas and Louisiana, combined with the southeastward
moving low opening into a shortwave will lead to a slightly
enhanced zone of baroclinicity over Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon.

The greater instability will be along the edge of this zone, but
the greater layer precipitable water, between 1.2-1.4 inches,
remains fixed mostly over West Kentucky. Originally considered the
potential for greater coverage of isolated thunderstorms, but
given marginal updrafts, limited mention of any thunderstorms
where combined updrafts may support more robust convection with
marginal instability.

Short term guidance suite was 1-2 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS CWA on-going forecasts, so adjusted max/mins slightly upward for
collaboration purposes.

The evolution of the shifting lows signal a pattern chance to a
low amplitude ridge developing over the area through Tuesday.
Beyond that time, a more dramatic shift in energy will take place
impacting weather conditions in the long term part of this
forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Above average forecast confidence in the long term as latest
model runs in decent agreement.

With the area being on the back side of a surface high and under a
weakening ridge aloft, Wednesday should remain dry. Due to a good
surge of sfc-850 MB dewpoints over our southeast Missouri counties
Wednesday afternoon, the GFS cranks out a tad of QPF there. However,
after looking at soundings, a bubble of warm air between 800-700 MB
should produce just enough inhibition to prevent convection.

Latest long range models are slightly speeding up the onset of
precipitation over our CWA with the approach of a weather system out
of the central plains, so added POPS over the far western and
northwestern sections Wednesday night.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as the aforementioned storm system draws closer. Models are
slightly different with timing and placement of selected parameters
of this system, but right now the best timing and coverage area-wide
for showers and thunderstorms should be Thursday night as the system
actually crosses the region.

Although there is still some disparity among models where timing of
the fropa is concerned, the boundary should be along or near the
eastern border of our CWA at 12Z (7 AM) Friday. Consequently,
precipitation chances on Friday rapidly diminish from west to east.

Over the past couple of days long range models were jockeying back
and forth trying to generate a few sprinkles in the wrap around
moisture over the northeast sections of our CWA Friday night, but
latest runs have backed off on that, so will keep it dry.

In the wake of the front, a strong surface high and northwest flow
aloft will usher in some of the coolest air of the season thus far
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A weak trof of low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley may produce
some VFR cloud decks this afternoon. Other...mainly clear and calm
conditions should prevail through 18Z Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JAP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281741
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1241 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

For aviation section only.

UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A minor PoP and weather adjustment made along a line stretching
from Southwest of Paducah to northeast of Evansville to account
for pre-dawn shower activity along gradient of mid-level moisture
and instability. This activity should diminish in coverage within
an hour or two after sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Although small, rain chances will still exist for the Pennyrile
Region of West Kentucky mainly this afternoon, along and east of
the Land Between the Lakes. The slowly ejecting low from Texas
moving northeast toward Arkansas and Louisiana, combined with the southeastward
moving low opening into a shortwave will lead to a slightly
enhanced zone of baroclinicity over Tennessee and Kentucky this afternoon.

The greater instability will be along the edge of this zone, but
the greater layer precipitable water, between 1.2-1.4 inches,
remains fixed mostly over West Kentucky. Originally considered the
potential for greater coverage of isolated thunderstorms, but
given marginal updrafts, limited mention of any thunderstorms
where combined updrafts may support more robust convection with
marginal instability.

Short term guidance suite was 1-2 degrees cooler than surrounding
NWS CWA on-going forecasts, so adjusted max/mins slightly upward for
collaboration purposes.

The evolution of the shifting lows signal a pattern chance to a
low amplitude ridge developing over the area through Tuesday.
Beyond that time, a more dramatic shift in energy will take place
impacting weather conditions in the long term part of this
forecast package.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

Above average forecast confidence in the long term as latest
model runs in decent agreement.

With the area being on the back side of a surface high and under a
weakening ridge aloft, Wednesday should remain dry. Due to a good
surge of sfc-850 MB dewpoints over our southeast Missouri counties
Wednesday afternoon, the GFS cranks out a tad of QPF there. However,
after looking at soundings, a bubble of warm air between 800-700 MB
should produce just enough inhibition to prevent convection.

Latest long range models are slightly speeding up the onset of
precipitation over our CWA with the approach of a weather system out
of the central plains, so added POPS over the far western and
northwestern sections Wednesday night.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase from the west on
Thursday as the aforementioned storm system draws closer. Models are
slightly different with timing and placement of selected parameters
of this system, but right now the best timing and coverage area-wide
for showers and thunderstorms should be Thursday night as the system
actually crosses the region.

Although there is still some disparity among models where timing of
the fropa is concerned, the boundary should be along or near the
eastern border of our CWA at 12Z (7 AM) Friday. Consequently,
precipitation chances on Friday rapidly diminish from west to east.

Over the past couple of days long range models were jockeying back
and forth trying to generate a few sprinkles in the wrap around
moisture over the northeast sections of our CWA Friday night, but
latest runs have backed off on that, so will keep it dry.

In the wake of the front, a strong surface high and northwest flow
aloft will usher in some of the coolest air of the season thus far
for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A weak trof of low pressure over the lower Ohio Valley may produce
some VFR cloud decks this afternoon. Other...mainly clear and calm
conditions should prevail through 18Z Monday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...JAP
AVIATION...GM






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1135 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Isolated showers have developed this morning in south central
Kentucky. Still looks like we could have some more develop during
the day. This is well covered by the ongoing forecast. Just made
some adjustments to the sky cover grids over the next few hours and
brought the forecast in line with current obs. Otherwise the
forecast is in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a strong closed
upper low across the western CONUS, with a downstream weak ridge
over the Ohio Valley.  A weak disturbance will pass north through
this weakening ridge today into tonight, bringing increasing
cloudiness and a small chance for a few showers.

Upper-level cloudiness continues to increase across the region this
morning as moisture advects in on weak southwest flow aloft.  The
main forecast challenge for today will be precipitation chances.
The latest guidance, specifically the higher-resolution guidance,
continues to advertise some showers developing along a very weak
surface trough and/or a weak deformation axis in the mid-levels.
However, forecast cross-sections continue to depict very dry
mid-levels.  Additionally, guidance suggests a mid-level cap will be
in place which would help to limit coverage/intensity of anything
that does try to develop.  Therefore, have limited pops to just
slight chance for today, as most will certainly stay dry.
Additionally, given the lack of strong surface convergence along
this trough and the presence of the mid-level cap, have taken
thunder mention out for this afternoon.  Can`t rule out a stray
rumble, but do not think it`s worth mentioning across the entire
region given the above reasoning and the fact that instability is
quite weak to begin with.

Otherwise, the main slug of moisture associated with this system
will push into eastern KY tonight, leaving just some lingering cloud
cover over our region.  These clouds should begin to clear from west
to east overnight, making the temperature forecast a bit tricky.
Will go with lows cooler in the west where clearing should occur
first, and warmer further east where clouds will linger.  Expect
readings in the mid 50s west to lower 60s east.

Pleasant conditions will continue into Monday as sunshine becomes
abundant and surface ridging re-establishes itself.  Highs will be
mild, topping out in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Dry and warm pattern will continue through the middle of the week as
the Ohio Valley will be under the influence of shortwave upper
ridging. By Thursday moisture begins to increase as SW flow deepens
ahead of a strong upper trof. GFS and ECMWF hinting at the potential
for showers in the warm advection Thursday, but not about to include
POPs given how moisture-starved we have been for much of the summer.
Another point in favor of a dry forecast is the tendency of the
models to be too fast with this type of system.

Showers and storms are a safe bet at some point either Thursday
night or Friday, as PWATs increase to 1.5 inches or better, and a 40
kt low-level jet cranks up ahead of the front. Still enough
uncertainty in the timing that we will limit POPs to 50% in any
given period, but that is really the only limiting factor.

Front is still progged to sweep through on Friday, with a fairly
sharp cutoff in precip and strong cold advection for the first half
of the weekend. Look for Saturday temps to be well below normal,
with most locations topping out in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1135 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Isolated showers have developed this morning in south central
Kentucky. Still looks like we could have some more develop during
the day. This is well covered by the ongoing forecast. Just made
some adjustments to the sky cover grids over the next few hours and
brought the forecast in line with current obs. Otherwise the
forecast is in good shape.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features a strong closed
upper low across the western CONUS, with a downstream weak ridge
over the Ohio Valley.  A weak disturbance will pass north through
this weakening ridge today into tonight, bringing increasing
cloudiness and a small chance for a few showers.

Upper-level cloudiness continues to increase across the region this
morning as moisture advects in on weak southwest flow aloft.  The
main forecast challenge for today will be precipitation chances.
The latest guidance, specifically the higher-resolution guidance,
continues to advertise some showers developing along a very weak
surface trough and/or a weak deformation axis in the mid-levels.
However, forecast cross-sections continue to depict very dry
mid-levels.  Additionally, guidance suggests a mid-level cap will be
in place which would help to limit coverage/intensity of anything
that does try to develop.  Therefore, have limited pops to just
slight chance for today, as most will certainly stay dry.
Additionally, given the lack of strong surface convergence along
this trough and the presence of the mid-level cap, have taken
thunder mention out for this afternoon.  Can`t rule out a stray
rumble, but do not think it`s worth mentioning across the entire
region given the above reasoning and the fact that instability is
quite weak to begin with.

Otherwise, the main slug of moisture associated with this system
will push into eastern KY tonight, leaving just some lingering cloud
cover over our region.  These clouds should begin to clear from west
to east overnight, making the temperature forecast a bit tricky.
Will go with lows cooler in the west where clearing should occur
first, and warmer further east where clouds will linger.  Expect
readings in the mid 50s west to lower 60s east.

Pleasant conditions will continue into Monday as sunshine becomes
abundant and surface ridging re-establishes itself.  Highs will be
mild, topping out in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Dry and warm pattern will continue through the middle of the week as
the Ohio Valley will be under the influence of shortwave upper
ridging. By Thursday moisture begins to increase as SW flow deepens
ahead of a strong upper trof. GFS and ECMWF hinting at the potential
for showers in the warm advection Thursday, but not about to include
POPs given how moisture-starved we have been for much of the summer.
Another point in favor of a dry forecast is the tendency of the
models to be too fast with this type of system.

Showers and storms are a safe bet at some point either Thursday
night or Friday, as PWATs increase to 1.5 inches or better, and a 40
kt low-level jet cranks up ahead of the front. Still enough
uncertainty in the timing that we will limit POPs to 50% in any
given period, but that is really the only limiting factor.

Front is still progged to sweep through on Friday, with a fairly
sharp cutoff in precip and strong cold advection for the first half
of the weekend. Look for Saturday temps to be well below normal,
with most locations topping out in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2014

Diurnal cu will continue to develop this afternoon with varying
scattered to broken coverage through the afternoon. Some of the
clouds will dissipate overnight, though scattered coverage is still
expected. Guidance is hitting fog/low ceilings pretty hard overnight
at BWG. Do not think it will be as bad as guidance suggests as it
has been overdoing things the last few nights. Will add in some
light fog there towards dawn, however, and monitor trends for the
next issuance. Winds will be light and variable through most of the
period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER





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