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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191151
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
651 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models show an upper level ridge building over the Central Plains,
sliding east across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys
late today into Sunday. This will keep conditions dry and mild
across the region through the weekend.  Winds will shift back to
the south on Sunday, helping temperatures climb into the upper
70s.  Clouds will increase Sunday night ahead of our next weather
system.

Models in are good agreement on timing of moving a cold front
across the PAH forecast area Monday into Monday night.
Precipitation chances will move into mainly western portions of
the area by 18z Monday, and went with chance pops across southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois. ECMWF generates some light QPF
farther east than GFS and NAM, so included slight chance pops
across the rest of the fa. Chances will increase through the day,
with good chance pops across all but our far east counties Monday
afternoon, and across the entire area Monday night. GFS and NAM
both generate some CAPE across the entire region Monday and Monday
night, with LI`s of -1 to -3 through the day Monday, so continued
to include slight chances of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The extended forecast period appears to be fairly quiet early
on...but the signal for precipitation looks to be fairly strong for
Thursday night through Friday.

In the meantime, we will see a front exiting the area on Tuesday.
There is a small possibility of lingering POPS in western KY early
Tuesday morning as the front exits. Although we might see a few
degree cool down behind this front...it still looks like highs in
the lower 70s will be likely on Tuesday.

An upper level ridge will start to build into the region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure at the sfc will allow
for winds to be easterly which will keep us in the low 70s.

Our warm up will occur on Thursday when winds become southerly as
the sfc high moves east. In fact, winds will likely become rather
gusty. Meanwhile, we will be watching a cold front advancing from
the west. Models indicate that most of the area should probably stay
dry on Thursday. If precipitation occurs, it would be most likely
across our western fringes. However, the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF are in
very good agreement that the best chances for precipitation will be
Thursday evening/overnight and into Friday. GFS ensembles also
support this timing. However, the 00Z ECMWF came in with a lot less
QPF and much faster with timing. Therefore, will not get too carried
away with POPS since this system is still not totally resolved well
by the models. But, looking back on several runs of the GFS, it does
seem to be the most consistent at this time.

Precipitation should be exiting the area late in the day on
Friday...which will make for dry conditions for Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 651 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with just
occasional high clouds, and FEW040 cumulus possible this
afternoon. Winds will be from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts,
decreasing to 4 kts or less after 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST




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000
FXUS63 KJKL 191150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS AS WELL AS THE LOW
TEMPERATURE GRID FOR THIS MORNING. ALSO...ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER
GRIDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN THE PIVOT AND RESURGENCE OF
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE SEEN IN THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOP. THESE
UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

DESPITE SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
THROUGH MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK UP DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 15 KTS OR SO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL SETTLE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






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000
FXUS63 KLMK 191041
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
641 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

A very pleasant weekend is in store for the Ohio Valley as
upper-level ridging establishes itself across the region.

Surface high pressure centered to the northeast of the region will
bring mostly sunny skies today (after some high cirrus clouds this
morning).  The orientation of the surface ridge will bring ENE winds
to the Ohio Valley today.  While this wind direction is not
typically conducive to warming, guidance has been running a cool
bias in recent weeks under mostly sunny conditions.  Given this fact
and drier air being advected in on these ENE winds (dewpoints in the
upper 30s to lower 40s by this afternoon), will bump temperatures up
a degree or two above guidance which puts highs in the low to mid
70s.

Overnight, skies will remain clear and winds will die down.  This
will allow for a quick drop off in temperatures after sunset given
the good radiational cooling conditions.  Lows will fall into the
mid 40s (perhaps lower 40s or even some upper 30s in sheltered
locations).

Easter Sunday is shaping up to be an incredibly pleasant day across
the Ohio Valley.  850mb temps will rise to near 10C, which coupled
with ample sunshine and dry low-levels, should allow temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s (a few degrees above
guidance).  These temperatures along with light winds should make
for a great day to be outdoors.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Surface and upper ridge axes near the Appalachians will shift
eastward Sunday night and Monday, giving way to deepening return
flow ahead of the next weak cold front. Gulf never really opens up,
so moisture return will be quite limited, with dewpoints struggling
into the 50s. Normal model bias in this pattern would suggest that
guidance is too cool, but low-level thickness progs actually support
the cooler NAM MOS for Monday`s max temps. Sunday night mins close
to consensus, as the pre-frontal SW flow is still a bit too weak.

Best chance for precip is Monday night as PWATs jump neatly above
75th percentile values, and at least some elevated instability
develops. Will carry at least a high-end chance POP Monday night
into Tuesday morning, and later shifts will likely bump one of those
periods into likely once confidence increases in the timing.

Look for increasing heights Tuesday night on through Thursday, as a
shortwave upper ridge builds in again. Expect mainly dry weather and
near-normal temps as we`ll be on the southern periphery of the main
surface high. ECMWF spits out some QPF Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts through, but will not jump on that yet as the GFS does
not agree.

Next wave will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley on Friday,
give or take a half a day. Will carry low-end chance POP, mainly
during the day, owing to the uncertainty in the exact timing. Either
way, it`s a low-amplitude wave aloft with no strong Canadian surface
high following, so temps will remain at or above climo even into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period.  The
cirrus deck currently over the region will quickly dissipate and
push east this morning, allowing sites to go mainly clear. After
light and variable winds early this morning, winds will increase
to around 10 knots out of the ENE this afternoon. Winds will die
down once again tonight with generally clear skies prevailing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 190807
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

Models show an upper level ridge building over the Central Plains,
sliding east across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys
late today into Sunday. This will keep conditions dry and mild
across the region through the weekend.  Winds will shift back to
the south on Sunday, helping temperatures climb into the upper
70s.  Clouds will increase Sunday night ahead of our next weather
system.

Models in are good agreement on timing of moving a cold front
across the PAH forecast area Monday into Monday night.
Precipitation chances will move into mainly western portions of
the area by 18z Monday, and went with chance pops across southeast
Missouri and southwest Illinois. ECMWF generates some light QPF
farther east than GFS and NAM, so included slight chance pops
across the rest of the fa. Chances will increase through the day,
with good chance pops across all but our far east counties Monday
afternoon, and across the entire area Monday night. GFS and NAM
both generate some CAPE across the entire region Monday and Monday
night, with LI`s of -1 to -3 through the day Monday, so continued
to include slight chances of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

The extended forecast period appears to be fairly quiet early
on...but the signal for precipitation looks to be fairly strong for
Thursday night through Friday.

In the meantime, we will see a front exiting the area on Tuesday.
There is a small possibility of lingering POPS in western KY early
Tuesday morning as the front exits. Although we might see a few
degree cool down behind this front...it still looks like highs in
the lower 70s will be likely on Tuesday.

An upper level ridge will start to build into the region late
Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure at the sfc will allow
for winds to be easterly which will keep us in the low 70s.

Our warm up will occur on Thursday when winds become southerly as
the sfc high moves east. In fact, winds will likely become rather
gusty. Meanwhile, we will be watching a cold front advancing from
the west. Models indicate that most of the area should probably stay
dry on Thursday. If precipitation occurs, it would be most likely
across our western fringes. However, the 00Z and 12Z ECMWF are in
very good agreement that the best chances for precipitation will be
Thursday evening/overnight and into Friday. GFS ensembles also
support this timing. However, the 00Z ECMWF came in with a lot less
QPF and much faster with timing. Therefore, will not get too carried
away with POPS since this system is still not totally resolved well
by the models. But, looking back on several runs of the GFS, it does
seem to be the most consistent at this time.

Precipitation should be exiting the area late in the day on
Friday...which will make for dry conditions for Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions VFR
throughout the region for the entire 06Z TAF period. The outflow
cirrus shield will shift east by morning, and some cu development
will be possible for the afternoon and evening. Winds will be from
the northeast through the period. Speeds may pick up to near
10kts in the afternoon.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190730 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND STRETCHED SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A LOW PRESSURE
AREA IS SLOWLY PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS
SOUTHERN SYSTEM IS KEEPING HIGH CLOUDS...GENERALLY THICKER
SOUTHEAST...OVER THE CWA THIS NIGHT. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW...HAS SLOWED THE DECLINE OF TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST PLACES OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS THE MOST SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE EAST...AND A FEW IN THE SOUTHWEST LIKE EKQ...WHERE READINGS ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE MID AND UPPER 50S ARE MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE RUNNING IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S THROUGH
THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA COMPARED TO THE LOW AND MID 40S OVER
THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST DESPITE THE CURRENT UNSTABLE MID LEVEL
PATTERN. KENTUCKY WILL BE SPLIT BY AMPLIFIED FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND
NORTH...FEATURING DEEP AND...IN SOME CASES...CLOSED OFF LOWS. THIS
IS AN UNUSUAL SETUP...BUT WHILE IT HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL REAP THE BENEFITS OF QUIET WEATHER. LOCAL MID LEVEL
RIDGING IN THE SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM WILL KEEP ENERGY FAR AWAY
FROM EAST KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIME. AS SUCH...HAVE FOLLOWED A MODEL
BLEND FOR WEATHER DETAILS THROUGH SUNDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST
DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN MOST PLACES. CLEARER
SKIES TONIGHT WILL MAKE FOR A BETTER SETUP LEADING TO RIDGE VERSUS
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A RETURN OF
SOME MID AND LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL HELP SUPPORT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S FOR EAST KENTUCKY.

STARTED WITH THE CONSSHORT AND BIAS CORRECTED CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR
THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. DID
ADJUST THE TEMPERATURES COLDER IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT AND ALSO
TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DRIER EACH AFTERNOON. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN THE
LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...IN LINE WITH ALL THE
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF PERHAPS BEING A BIT
SLOWER THAN THE GFS TO START THINGS OFF. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH YET ANOTHER WARM UP ON
TAP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER
COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ARE A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THE ECWMF IS QUITE
A BIT SLOWER...LESS MOIST AND WEAKER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM THAN
THE GFS. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED A BLEND BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WITH MAX PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF
ONLY 30 PERCENT DURING SYSTEM PASSAGE. OVERALL...A VERY PLEASANT
WEEK IS ON TAP...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S AND 70S EACH
DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

A very pleasant weekend is in store for the Ohio Valley as
upper-level ridging establishes itself across the region.

Surface high pressure centered to the northeast of the region will
bring mostly sunny skies today (after some high cirrus clouds this
morning).  The orientation of the surface ridge will bring ENE winds
to the Ohio Valley today.  While this wind direction is not
typically conducive to warming, guidance has been running a cool
bias in recent weeks under mostly sunny conditions.  Given this fact
and drier air being advected in on these ENE winds (dewpoints in the
upper 30s to lower 40s by this afternoon), will bump temperatures up
a degree or two above guidance which puts highs in the low to mid
70s.

Overnight, skies will remain clear and winds will die down.  This
will allow for a quick drop off in temperatures after sunset given
the good radiational cooling conditions.  Lows will fall into the
mid 40s (perhaps lower 40s or even some upper 30s in sheltered
locations).

Easter Sunday is shaping up to be an incredibly pleasant day across
the Ohio Valley.  850mb temps will rise to near 10C, which coupled
with ample sunshine and dry low-levels, should allow temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s (a few degrees above
guidance).  These temperatures along with light winds should make
for a great day to be outdoors.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Surface and upper ridge axes near the Appalachians will shift
eastward Sunday night and Monday, giving way to deepening return
flow ahead of the next weak cold front. Gulf never really opens up,
so moisture return will be quite limited, with dewpoints struggling
into the 50s. Normal model bias in this pattern would suggest that
guidance is too cool, but low-level thickness progs actually support
the cooler NAM MOS for Monday`s max temps. Sunday night mins close
to consensus, as the pre-frontal SW flow is still a bit too weak.

Best chance for precip is Monday night as PWATs jump neatly above
75th percentile values, and at least some elevated instability
develops. Will carry at least a high-end chance POP Monday night
into Tuesday morning, and later shifts will likely bump one of those
periods into likely once confidence increases in the timing.

Look for increasing heights Tuesday night on through Thursday, as a
shortwave upper ridge builds in again. Expect mainly dry weather and
near-normal temps as we`ll be on the southern periphery of the main
surface high. ECMWF spits out some QPF Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts through, but will not jump on that yet as the GFS does
not agree.

Next wave will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley on Friday,
give or take a half a day. Will carry low-end chance POP, mainly
during the day, owing to the uncertainty in the exact timing. Either
way, it`s a low-amplitude wave aloft with no strong Canadian surface
high following, so temps will remain at or above climo even into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period.  The
broken cirrus deck currently over the region will slowly push east
overnight, allowing sites to go mainly clear by the daylight hours.
After light and variable winds early this morning, winds will
increase to around 10 knots out of the ENE today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

A very pleasant weekend is in store for the Ohio Valley as
upper-level ridging establishes itself across the region.

Surface high pressure centered to the northeast of the region will
bring mostly sunny skies today (after some high cirrus clouds this
morning).  The orientation of the surface ridge will bring ENE winds
to the Ohio Valley today.  While this wind direction is not
typically conducive to warming, guidance has been running a cool
bias in recent weeks under mostly sunny conditions.  Given this fact
and drier air being advected in on these ENE winds (dewpoints in the
upper 30s to lower 40s by this afternoon), will bump temperatures up
a degree or two above guidance which puts highs in the low to mid
70s.

Overnight, skies will remain clear and winds will die down.  This
will allow for a quick drop off in temperatures after sunset given
the good radiational cooling conditions.  Lows will fall into the
mid 40s (perhaps lower 40s or even some upper 30s in sheltered
locations).

Easter Sunday is shaping up to be an incredibly pleasant day across
the Ohio Valley.  850mb temps will rise to near 10C, which coupled
with ample sunshine and dry low-levels, should allow temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s (a few degrees above
guidance).  These temperatures along with light winds should make
for a great day to be outdoors.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

Surface and upper ridge axes near the Appalachians will shift
eastward Sunday night and Monday, giving way to deepening return
flow ahead of the next weak cold front. Gulf never really opens up,
so moisture return will be quite limited, with dewpoints struggling
into the 50s. Normal model bias in this pattern would suggest that
guidance is too cool, but low-level thickness progs actually support
the cooler NAM MOS for Monday`s max temps. Sunday night mins close
to consensus, as the pre-frontal SW flow is still a bit too weak.

Best chance for precip is Monday night as PWATs jump neatly above
75th percentile values, and at least some elevated instability
develops. Will carry at least a high-end chance POP Monday night
into Tuesday morning, and later shifts will likely bump one of those
periods into likely once confidence increases in the timing.

Look for increasing heights Tuesday night on through Thursday, as a
shortwave upper ridge builds in again. Expect mainly dry weather and
near-normal temps as we`ll be on the southern periphery of the main
surface high. ECMWF spits out some QPF Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts through, but will not jump on that yet as the GFS does
not agree.

Next wave will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley on Friday,
give or take a half a day. Will carry low-end chance POP, mainly
during the day, owing to the uncertainty in the exact timing. Either
way, it`s a low-amplitude wave aloft with no strong Canadian surface
high following, so temps will remain at or above climo even into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period.  The
broken cirrus deck currently over the region will slowly push east
overnight, allowing sites to go mainly clear by the daylight hours.
After light and variable winds early this morning, winds will
increase to around 10 knots out of the ENE today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 190605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TOUCHED UP THE LOWS AND HOURLY CURVES FOR BOTH THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OF
VARYING THICKNESS...MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ENOUGH
THAT THEY ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS...IN THE
MID 40S VERSUS UPPER 50S...WITH RESPECT TO A DROP OFF IN TEMPS
DURING THESE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPDATED AVIATION GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 190605 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

TOUCHED UP THE LOWS AND HOURLY CURVES FOR BOTH THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS OF
VARYING THICKNESS...MANY OF THE EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE DECOUPLED ENOUGH
THAT THEY ARE RUNNING AHEAD OF THE RIDGES AND MORE OPEN AREAS...IN THE
MID 40S VERSUS UPPER 50S...WITH RESPECT TO A DROP OFF IN TEMPS
DURING THESE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS FOR THIS AND
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE UPDATED AVIATION GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 OR SO KTS
POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 190442
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1242 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period.  The
broken cirrus deck currently over the region will slowly push east
overnight, allowing sites to go mainly clear by the daylight hours.
After light and variable winds early this morning, winds will
increase to around 10 knots out of the ENE today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 190442
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a sunny
and pleasant Easter weekend to the region. MOS guidance has been a
bit too cool in this dry air during the daytime hours, so nudged
highs up a few degrees from previous forecasts. Would not be
surprised if a few locations touch 80 degrees on Easter Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance remain
collectively similar in pushing a mean low amplitude shortwave
trough through the WFO PAH forecast area at the beginning of the
extended forecast period (Monday). The lack of broad scale, enhanced
forcing suggests that any precipitation coverage will remain
scattered with only pockets of instability for any thunderstorm
development. Any lift will move east coincident with the trough
passage, so rain chances should diminish quickly Monday night.

The next weather system moves slowly into the region on Thursday,
and a Northern Plans low moves into the upper Midwest on Friday. The
12z Friday GFS/GFS Ensemble takes a more northerly track with this
system through the Upper Great Lakes. This will impact the degree of
intrusion of higher theta-e air and proximity of colder upper level
temperatures and shear into the region. Given this uncertainty, a
decision was made to keep PoPs in the chance category through Friday.
It is too early to determine any potential for severe thunderstorms
with pre-frontal/frontal convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1141 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep conditions VFR
throughout the region for the entire 06Z TAF period. The outflow
cirrus shield will shift east by morning, and some cu development
will be possible for the afternoon and evening. Winds will be from
the northeast through the period. Speeds may pick up to near
10kts in the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190442
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1242 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1241 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2014

VFR conditions will prevail through the valid TAF period.  The
broken cirrus deck currently over the region will slowly push east
overnight, allowing sites to go mainly clear by the daylight hours.
After light and variable winds early this morning, winds will
increase to around 10 knots out of the ENE today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 190219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 190219 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DESPITE THICKER CLOUDS HANGING IN THERE ACROSS THE AREA...SOME OF THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE DECOUPLING...CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE
LOWER 50S...WHILE BROADER VALLEYS AND RIDGETOPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S. WILL INCLUDE A SPLIT IN THE ZONES AND HAVE ADJUSTED
SOME OF THE LOWS IN PLACES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 182349 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 182349 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

HAVE INCREASED THE CLOUDS A BIT INTO THIS EVENING...AS THE LATEST IR
SATELLITE SHOWS AN OVERALL UPTICK IN THE THICKER CIRRUS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD KEEP MOST RIDGES AND VALLEYS WITHIN A 5 DEGREE RANGE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

BESIDES SOME THICKER HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH DAWN...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KPAH 182327
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a sunny
and pleasant Easter weekend to the region. MOS guidance has been a
bit too cool in this dry air during the daytime hours, so nudged
highs up a few degrees from previous forecasts. Would not be
surprised if a few locations touch 80 degrees on Easter Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance remain
collectively similar in pushing a mean low amplitude shortwave
trough through the WFO PAH forecast area at the beginning of the
extended forecast period (Monday). The lack of broad scale, enhanced
forcing suggests that any precipitation coverage will remain
scattered with only pockets of instability for any thunderstorm
development. Any lift will move east coincident with the trough
passage, so rain chances should diminish quickly Monday night.

The next weather system moves slowly into the region on Thursday,
and a Northern Plans low moves into the upper Midwest on Friday. The
12z Friday GFS/GFS Ensemble takes a more northerly track with this
system through the Upper Great Lakes. This will impact the degree of
intrusion of higher theta-e air and proximity of colder upper level
temperatures and shear into the region. Given this uncertainty, a
decision was made to keep PoPs in the chance category through Friday.
It is too early to determine any potential for severe thunderstorms
with pre-frontal/frontal convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 627 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

6-8kft clouds should dissipate quickly this evening. The strong
storm system over the Gulf Coast may spread some high cloud into
the KOWB area overnight. As the Gulf Coast storm moves eastward
the high cloud will move east, leaving only a few cu across our
area for Saturday. High pressure will build in at the surface and
aloft on Saturday, so east northeast winds under 10kts can be
expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 182255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A long north-south ridge of high pressure crossing the region will
keep vsbys VFR and cirrus as the main cloud type through this
forecast period. After light and variable winds tonight they will
concentrate out of the ENE around ten knots on Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 182255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A long north-south ridge of high pressure crossing the region will
keep vsbys VFR and cirrus as the main cloud type through this
forecast period. After light and variable winds tonight they will
concentrate out of the ENE around ten knots on Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KPAH 182027
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a sunny
and pleasant Easter weekend to the region. MOS guidance has been a
bit too cool in this dry air during the daytime hours, so nudged
highs up a few degrees from previous forecasts. Would not be
surprised if a few locations touch 80 degrees on Easter Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 326 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The medium range deterministic and ensemble guidance remain
collectively similar in pushing a mean low amplitude shortwave
trough through the WFO PAH forecast area at the beginning of the
extended forecast period (Monday). The lack of broad scale, enhanced
forcing suggests that any precipitation coverage will remain
scattered with only pockets of instability for any thunderstorm
development. Any lift will move east coincident with the trough
passage, so rain chances should diminish quickly Monday night.

The next weather system moves slowly into the region on Thursday,
and a Northern Plans low moves into the upper Midwest on Friday. The
12z Friday GFS/GFS Ensemble takes a more northerly track with this
system through the Upper Great Lakes. This will impact the degree of
intrusion of higher theta-e air and proximity of colder upper level
temperatures and shear into the region. Given this uncertainty, a
decision was made to keep PoPs in the chance category through Friday.
It is too early to determine any potential for severe thunderstorms
with pre-frontal/frontal convective activity.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds
throughout the TAF period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 182003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Strong high pressure at the surface and aloft will bring a sunny
and pleasant Easter weekend to the region. MOS guidance has been a
bit too cool in this dry air during the daytime hours, so nudged
highs up a few degrees from previous forecasts. Would not be
surprised if a few locations touch 80 degrees on Easter Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

To be issued shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds
throughout the TAF period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Storm system across the southeast U.S. will help to keep our weather
quiet this period. We will see a steady north to northeasterly wind
at the surface, in the flow around this system. There is a cloud
gradient from northwest to southeast today, with cirrus streaming
north from this low, but these clouds should shift east tonight.
Despite the sunshine tomorrow, lower thicknesses, kept low by that
closed low to our southeast, will mean temperatures stay within 5
degrees of normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Sunday - Friday...

An amplified upper level ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley
on Sunday, upstream of a closed upper low off the SE CONUS. This
will result in a warm and dry day with temperatures nearly 10
degrees above normal for this time of year. Most highs should stay
in the upper 70s although a few spots may touch 80 degrees. Sunday
night will be continued dry with mild overnight lows in the low and
mid 50s. Expect to see a light southerly wind to develop toward
dawn, along with increasing upper level sky cover.

By Monday, the upper level ridge axis will move off to the east.
Meanwhile, a shortwave will dive across the northern Plains heading
into the Great Lakes. An associated surface low will strengthen
ahead of this feature with some weak isentropic ascent possible over
the Ohio Valley. Forecast models continue to depict QPF over our
area on Monday, however agree with previous forecast reasoning in
keeping low chances across our western CWA further removed from the
upper level ridge. The main chances for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will arrive Monday night into early Tuesday as the
aforementioned surface low slides across the Great Lakes, dragging a
cold front through our region as it does so. There continues to be
some question as to how much moisture this system will have to work
with as return flow from the Gulf looks to be limited by the upper
level ridge in place the day before.

Highs Monday will be a bit cooler in the mid 70s under increased sky
cover. Monday night will be even milder than Sunday night under a
steady southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front. Tuesday
will see highs in the lower 70s despite being post frontal as we`ll
see some peaks at the sun in the afternoon and cooler air lags
behind a bit.

We`ll see a dry period of weather Tuesday night through Thursday as
progressive upper level ridging builds back over the region, and
high pressure at the surface also holds. Temperatures Wednesday will
be the coolest of the period and should top out right around 70
degrees. Thursday will be back in the mid 70s. Overnight lows during
mid week will generally be near the normal mark.

Confidence decreases by the end of next week as the progressive
upper level ridge pushes off to the east and the next trough moves
in. There is general agreement in the next wave developing, however
timing is certainly in question. Will go with low chances for
showers and a t-storm during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 181836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE DYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY HAS BEEN WITH THE SYSTEM ON THE SOUTHERN
STREAM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TOMORROW AND DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE REALLY WILL NOT BE THAT NOTICEABLE A
DIFFERENCE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
TOMORROW BECAUSE THE CLOUDS WILL HAVE DECREASED. FOR TEMPERATURES...
WENT WITH THE MODEL BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CHANGES BASED ON
ELEVATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WARM CONDITIONS
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE BEING FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A WARM UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014


VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KPAH 181716
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Updated aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light showers in southeast Missouri should continue to make their
way east as a weak cold front moves across and washes out over the
PAH forecast area today. The showers should mainly affect the
southern half of the area where the is a little better moisture
available. Kept pops in the slight chance category due to the
expected widely scattered nature and very light QPF amounts. By
late afternoon, models indicate showers should end as an upper
level ridge begins building in from the west. With the front
washing out, no cooler air will work its way into the area, and
temperatures this afternoon and tonight will actually be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build eastward through the
weekend. This will keep conditions dry through Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, and with a
return of southerly winds on Sunday, readings will reach the
middle to upper 70s, which will be 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave is now
forecast to bring precipitation chances into the far western
sections of our CWA by late Sunday night versus late Sunday
afternoon. Models still not in the best agreement on the track and
timing of this system. Precipitation chances are now expected to be
highest Monday and Monday night as the system tracks across the
region. Instability parameters still expected to be strong enough to
continue the mention of thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday
night.  On the back side of the aforementioned system,
precipitation chances may linger over the far southeast sections
of our CWA on Tuesday.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should
keep the region dry and warmer through Wednesday night. With the
approach of the next weather system, precipitation chances may begin
to increase from the west on Thursday. Long term models in terrible
agreement on the handling of this system. For example, the ECMWF
brings precipitation well into our CWA on Thursday while the GFS
keeps it dry through Thursday night. Consequently went with a
compromise and introduced POPS only over the northwest sections of
our CWA on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the entire
long term portion of the forecast with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

High pressure will bring mainly clear skies and light winds
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KLMK 181650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181650
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Seeing some clouds develop on the edge of the cirrus shield, now
stretching frmo KBWG to KSDF. These clouds are fairly high-based
though at 4500 feet, so VFR conditions look to prevail. AMDAR
soundings still show a pretty strong cap at 7500 feet, so it should
be hard to get any precip today, even with a weak front in the
region. Winds will become more northeasterly Saturday as a storm
system passes through the southeast U.S.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181325
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 181325
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Forecast soundings match up with morning AMDAR soundings showing a
thin saturated layer around 6-7 kft, with a strong inversion above
it and dry air below. Dissipating front remains to our northwest.
Given the negative factors for precipitation, will remove pops from
the morning forecast but still keep us mostly cloudy. Temperatures
still should get up to around 70 for most locations. The pressure
gradient is nil in the vicinity of this front, so have light and
variable winds.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KPAH 181216
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
716 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 716 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Updated aviation section for 12z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light showers in southeast Missouri should continue to make their
way east as a weak cold front moves across and washes out over the
PAH forecast area today. The showers should mainly affect the
southern half of the area where the is a little better moisture
available. Kept pops in the slight chance category due to the
expected widely scattered nature and very light QPF amounts. By
late afternoon, models indicate showers should end as an upper
level ridge begins building in from the west. With the front
washing out, no cooler air will work its way into the area, and
temperatures this afternoon and tonight will actually be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build eastward through the
weekend. This will keep conditions dry through Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, and with a
return of southerly winds on Sunday, readings will reach the
middle to upper 70s, which will be 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave is now
forecast to bring precipitation chances into the far western
sections of our CWA by late Sunday night versus late Sunday
afternoon. Models still not in the best agreement on the track and
timing of this system. Precipitation chances are now expected to be
highest Monday and Monday night as the system tracks across the
region. Instability parameters still expected to be strong enough to
continue the mention of thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday
night.  On the back side of the aforementioned system,
precipitation chances may linger over the far southeast sections
of our CWA on Tuesday.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should
keep the region dry and warmer through Wednesday night. With the
approach of the next weather system, precipitation chances may begin
to increase from the west on Thursday. Long term models in terrible
agreement on the handling of this system. For example, the ECMWF
brings precipitation well into our CWA on Thursday while the GFS
keeps it dry through Thursday night. Consequently went with a
compromise and introduced POPS only over the northwest sections of
our CWA on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the entire
long term portion of the forecast with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 716 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with mainly some
mid clouds today and mostly clear skies tonight. Light winds will
become northeast around 5 kts today, becoming light after 00z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KJKL 181053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO THICKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
THICKER CLOUDS TO PREVENT RADIATING...TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER
VALLEY HAVE CREPT HIGHER...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS TREND IN THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH
INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY
OF WARM DRY AIR IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...IS
WHERE THE PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WOULD
BE OUR WEATHER PRODUCER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOULD THE MODELS
TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT. INITIALLY THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TWO MODELS
QUICKLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THE WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT TO BEGIN THE WEEK. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE
ARE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR SPILLING
INTO THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
BY WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND AND
CLOUDS WE END UP GETTING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
NOT COOL THING OFF VERY MUCH AS IT LOOKS TO BE AN ILL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS IT PASSES BY. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND 70 EACH
DAY. THE AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 181053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

MID/HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO THICKEN EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WITH
THICKER CLOUDS TO PREVENT RADIATING...TEMPERATURES IN THE COLDER
VALLEY HAVE CREPT HIGHER...AND HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS TREND IN THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH
INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY
OF WARM DRY AIR IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...IS
WHERE THE PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WOULD
BE OUR WEATHER PRODUCER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOULD THE MODELS
TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT. INITIALLY THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TWO MODELS
QUICKLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THE WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT TO BEGIN THE WEEK. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE
ARE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR SPILLING
INTO THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
BY WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND AND
CLOUDS WE END UP GETTING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
NOT COOL THING OFF VERY MUCH AS IT LOOKS TO BE AN ILL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS IT PASSES BY. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND 70 EACH
DAY. THE AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KLMK 181053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 181053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 181053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 181053
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will move through the region today.  The lack
of forcing should result in mainly cloudy and dry conditions.  A few
isolated showers may pass near the KBWG terminal, but such isolated
nature precludes a mention in the TAF at this time.  VFR conditions
are expected through the period with mainly light and variable
winds.  Expect a clearing of skies after 19/00Z with VFR conditions
continuing through the remainder of the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KPAH 180807
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

Light showers in southeast Missouri should continue to make their
way east as a weak cold front moves across and washes out over the
PAH forecast area today. The showers should mainly affect the
southern half of the area where the is a little better moisture
available. Kept pops in the slight chance category due to the
expected widely scattered nature and very light QPF amounts. By
late afternoon, models indicate showers should end as an upper
level ridge begins building in from the west. With the front
washing out, no cooler air will work its way into the area, and
temperatures this afternoon and tonight will actually be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday.

The upper level ridge will continue to build eastward through the
weekend. This will keep conditions dry through Sunday.
Temperatures will continue to warm through the weekend, and with a
return of southerly winds on Sunday, readings will reach the
middle to upper 70s, which will be 4 to 8 degrees above seasonal
normals.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave is now
forecast to bring precipitation chances into the far western
sections of our CWA by late Sunday night versus late Sunday
afternoon. Models still not in the best agreement on the track and
timing of this system. Precipitation chances are now expected to be
highest Monday and Monday night as the system tracks across the
region. Instability parameters still expected to be strong enough to
continue the mention of thunder Sunday night, Monday, and Monday
night.  On the back side of the aforementioned system,
precipitation chances may linger over the far southeast sections
of our CWA on Tuesday.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should
keep the region dry and warmer through Wednesday night. With the
approach of the next weather system, precipitation chances may begin
to increase from the west on Thursday. Long term models in terrible
agreement on the handling of this system. For example, the ECMWF
brings precipitation well into our CWA on Thursday while the GFS
keeps it dry through Thursday night. Consequently went with a
compromise and introduced POPS only over the northwest sections of
our CWA on Thursday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the entire
long term portion of the forecast with highs topping out in the mid
to upper 70s.


&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The cold front has effectively washed out to our north, and light
winds are transitioning more to a north or northeast direction
throughout the area. They may be variable through the night, and
then eventually become northeast by Friday afternoon. That should
continue through the evening as well.

A few light showers are moving northeast out of north central
Arkansas, but they will be encountering drier air as they approach
our area overnight. Would be surprised if there is any measurable
precipitation overnight. Any ceilings overnight should be aoa
10kft, but a scattered layer 5-7kft will be possible. These layers
may be in play for a good bit of the day Friday, but would expect
most areas to become clear by evening.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH
INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY
OF WARM DRY AIR IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...IS
WHERE THE PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WOULD
BE OUR WEATHER PRODUCER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOULD THE MODELS
TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT. INITIALLY THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TWO MODELS
QUICKLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THE WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT TO BEGIN THE WEEK. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE
ARE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR SPILLING
INTO THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
BY WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND AND
CLOUDS WE END UP GETTING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
NOT COOL THING OFF VERY MUCH AS IT LOOKS TO BE AN ILL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS IT PASSES BY. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND 70 EACH
DAY. THE AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 180743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH
INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE OVERALL
LARGE SCALE WILL FEATURE A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WITH PLENTY
OF WARM DRY AIR IN PLACE WE SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER...IS
WHERE THE PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WOULD
BE OUR WEATHER PRODUCER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SHOULD THE MODELS
TURN OUT TO BE RIGHT. INITIALLY THERE WERE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE TWO MODELS
QUICKLY CAME INTO AGREEMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THE WEATHER FEATURES OF NOTE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING FRONT TO BEGIN THE WEEK. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND
FAIRLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...NOTHING MORE THAN GARDEN VARIETY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MASS IS PROGGED TO SETTLE OVER THE
ARE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND DRY AIR SPILLING
INTO THE AREA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM
BY WHICH OUR TEMPERATURES WARM AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. IN GENERAL...DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD TOP OUT
IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 70S DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WIND AND
CLOUDS WE END UP GETTING. THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY
NOT COOL THING OFF VERY MUCH AS IT LOOKS TO BE AN ILL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL LITTLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS AS IT PASSES BY. HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL STILL PROBABLY TOP OUT AROUND 70 EACH
DAY. THE AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MODIFY TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS AGAIN POSSIBLY RISING INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180736
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH
INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KJKL 180736
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

DURING THE NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A DYING SURFACE COLD
FRONT WAS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
RESPECTIVELY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE TROUGH WAS HEADING
TOWARD THE GULF COAST REGION AND WAS TRIGGERING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT THERE. AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO THE
OHIO VALLEY.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEGRADE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN LOW AND WILL NOT BRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIR
MASS. THE SOUTHERN LOW WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE ENE THROUGH
SATURDAY. WE WILL REMAIN AT THE NW PERIPHERY OF ITS INFLUENCE. OUR
LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
PRECIP. HOWEVER...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT THIS MORNING. THE
CLOUD SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO SHOW AN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE SE WITH
TIME...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING FOR SUNNY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY.

WITH THE CLOUDS BEING MOSTLY CIRRUS TODAY...WILL LOOK FOR ENOUGH
INSOLATION FOR MILD AFTERNOON TEMPS AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE THICKNESS OF THE CLOUDS. IF THE CLOUDS ARE DENSE
ENOUGH...IT COULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 180727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 180727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 180727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 180727
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

Weakening surface cold front is pushing toward the Wabash River
early this morning.  Area 88-D`s are showing a few returns, but
observations show nothing hitting the ground.  The front will slowly
move eastward later today.  In the meantime, mostly cloudy skies
will continue across the region as a thick veil of mid-high level
cloudiness remains across the region.  The clouds have kept
temperatures warmer than in previous mornings with NWS observation
points and Kentucky Mesonet stations showing readings generally in
the lower to middle 40s.  The data suggests that we are still seeing
a little big of a ridge/valley split again...but not as dramatic as
in the last few nights. We expect temperatures to fall a few more
degrees before sunrise with minimums dropping into the mid-upper 30s
in the cool spots with lower 40s elsewhere.

For today, the latest model guidance continues to trend drier with
the front crossing the region today.  The underlying cause of the
drier solutions is the rapidly developing upper cut-off low
developing across northern Gulf.  This feature will tend to keep all
the moisture well to our south.  Have trimmed back PoPs a bit more,
especially across the north. Still think a stray shower may
transverse our southern counties, but overall most areas will remain
dry today.  Clouds will keep temperatures down slightly with highs
topping out in the upper 60s to around 70.

For tonight and Saturday, upper level cut off low across the SE US
will continue to slowly work eastward.  Drier influx of air will
push in tonight and into Saturday which will bring increasingly
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny conditions for Saturday.  Lows
tonight will cool into the lower to middle 40s with highs on
Saturday warming into the 70-75 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature split flow across the Ohio Valley.  However, this will
transition to more of a western trough/eastern ridge upper-level
regime towards the end of the long term period, meaning warmer
temperatures are likely through the long term period.

Easter Sunday is shaping out to be a very pleasant day across the
region, perfect for hunting eggs and enjoying the outdoors.
Temperatures will rise into the middle and upper 70s (perhaps
flirting with 80 in a few locations) under mostly sunny skies.
Winds will be rather light as well, as a surface ridge slides
through the Ohio Valley.

A weak PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will slide
toward the region Monday into Tuesday.  Have taken a bit of a model
blend to handle this system.  Think the ECMWF is a bit too
aggressive with the precip arrival on Monday, as it tries to develop
some convection well ahead of the surface front within the warm
conveyor belt.  Given the general lack of low-level moisture with
this system due to high pressure over the northern Gulf, and the
indication of a weak cap in the forecast soundings, think the
majority of Monday will likely stay dry. So, will side with the GFS
and lean toward a later arrival to the precipitation, and only keep
slight chance/chance wording in for Monday.  Coverage looks to
increase a bit overnight Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front
and trough swing through.  Think the GFS is too aggressive in this
timeframe with QPF given the general lack of deep moisture and
forcing for ascent, so have sided more toward the ECMWF for QPF
Monday night.

The showers and isolated thunderstorms will push east by late
Tuesday afternoon, allowing things to dry out through at least
Thursday.  Temperatures Tuesday behind the front will be slightly
cooler, in the low to middle 70s, but should moderate back into the
upper 70s by Thursday.

The ECWMF tries to bring the next system into the Ohio Valley
Thursday night into Friday.  However, with the upper-level flow
undergoing amplification, think the ECMWF is likely too quick with
this feature.  With this reasoning, have kept Thursday night dry and
limited pops to 20% on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 180616
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CIRRUS IS EXTENSIVE OVER THE AREA AND HAVE RAISED SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF SLOWER THAN WAS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES...AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
UPWARD A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUITE THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE/HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 180616
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CIRRUS IS EXTENSIVE OVER THE AREA AND HAVE RAISED SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF SLOWER THAN WAS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES...AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
UPWARD A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUITE THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE/HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 180616
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CIRRUS IS EXTENSIVE OVER THE AREA AND HAVE RAISED SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF SLOWER THAN WAS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES...AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
UPWARD A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUITE THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE/HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 180616
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

CIRRUS IS EXTENSIVE OVER THE AREA AND HAVE RAISED SKY COVER FOR
TONIGHT. ALSO...TEMPS ARE FALLING OFF SLOWER THAN WAS FORECAST...
ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES...AND HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT FORECAST LOWS
UPWARD A BIT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUITE THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE/HAL
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 180514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 113 AM EDT Fri Apr 18 2014

A weak surface front will approach the region this morning.  With
the lack of any significant forcing, this front will just be
accompanied by mid-high level cloudiness.  VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period with generally light and
variable winds.  We will likely see a bit of cu develop during the
day tomorrow with bases around 5kft AGL.  Clearing skies are
expected toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KPAH 180455
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The trend toward minimal PoP/Weather impact for tonight through
Friday continues with this package. Ironically, the NAM-WRF model
family, including the Short Range Ensemble (SREF) remains the most
aggressive in saturating parcels enough to support at least small
precipitation chances.

The surface to mid-level trough continues to sharpen this afternoon
across Kansas and Missouri, and is evident in the persistent lift and
saturation implied through the Infrared, water vapor difference
channels, visible satellite and surface observations under cloud
cover. The NAM-WRF moisture/lift fields appear to match well with
observations, so weighted the short term forecast closer to a
scenario where a narrow Southwest to Northeast zone of lift develops
late tonight and early Friday across the WFO PAH forecast area.
Although the SREF PoPs were the most robust with this feature with
respect to PoPs, a more "watered-down" approach was considered, as
the lift weakens rapidly during the late morning and afternoon on
Friday. The proposed PoPS/Weather expected (mainly over KY/Southeast
IL late tonight and early Friday may still be too robust and we
could end up with a totally dry forecast for Friday.  This
definitely shows the impact of a dramatic shift in the Northern
Hemispheric upper level low on local weather.  Other forecasters had
noted that the ECMWF was at least hinting at a weaker solution
(lower PoPs) on Friday versus the GFS family.

With the loss of significant PoP chances on Friday and decent
ridging behind the weakening frontal boundary moving and decaying
across the area, decided to raise max/min temperature forecast by
roughly two degrees above forecast values.  This may be too
conservative and could be adjusted higher depending on the amount of
evaporation today and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Should be a nice Easter Sunday as we remain between high pressure
off the Northeast Coast and weak low pressure out over the western
Plains. Weak southerly flow and sunshine should help boost
temperatures well into the 70s to near 80.

The system out to our west will slowly make it`s way into our area
early next week. Again, the sfc low looks to be quite weak, and
the mid lvl trof should remain slightly positively tilted. Thus,
will not go too high with POPs or actual rain amounts at this
time. The 12z GFS QPF output just seems overdone over our west and
north given the expected pattern. Leaned toward the lighter ECMWF
for this package. High pressure should finally move back in for
the mid/late week time frame with above normal temperatures
continuing. In fact, high temperatures in the 70s appear likely
this entire long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The cold front has effectively washed out to our north, and light
winds are transitioning more to a north or northeast direction
throughout the area. They may be variable through the night, and
then eventually become northeast by Friday afternoon. That should
continue through the evening as well.

A few light showers are moving northeast out of north central
Arkansas, but they will be encountering drier air as they approach
our area overnight. Would be surprised if there is any measurable
precipitation overnight. Any ceilings overnight should be aoa
10kft, but a scattered layer 5-7kft will be possible. These layers
may be in play for a good bit of the day Friday, but would expect
most areas to become clear by evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...MEFFERT
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 180138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIT THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...ABE




000
FXUS63 KJKL 180138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

QUIT THE RANGE WITH TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. EASTERN VALLEYS HAVE
FALLEN AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 40S WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
REMAINS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. TRIED TO REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES
BETTER IN THE TEMP FORECAST TONIGHT AND OPEN UP THE RANGE EXPECTED IN
OVERNIGHT LOWS. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTH FROM THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
LIKELY STALL THE TEMP DROP IN THE VALLEYS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL TRIM
BACK THE PATCHY FROST MENTION TO JUST OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN VALLEYS.
NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...ABE





000
FXUS63 KPAH 172339
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
639 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 639 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The trend toward minimal PoP/Weather impact for tonight through
Friday continues with this package. Ironically, the NAM-WRF model
family, including the Short Range Ensemble (SREF) remains the most
aggressive in saturating parcels enough to support at least small
precipitation chances.

The surface to mid-level trough continues to sharpen this afternoon
across Kansas and Missouri, and is evident in the persistent lift and
saturation implied through the Infrared, water vapor difference
channels, visible satellite and surface observations under cloud
cover. The NAM-WRF moisture/lift fields appear to match well with
observations, so weighted the short term forecast closer to a
scenario where a narrow Southwest to Northeast zone of lift develops
late tonight and early Friday across the WFO PAH forecast area.
Although the SREF PoPs were the most robust with this feature with
respect to PoPs, a more "watered-down" approach was considered, as
the lift weakens rapidly during the late morning and afternoon on
Friday. The proposed PoPS/Weather expected (mainly over KY/Southeast
IL late tonight and early Friday may still be too robust and we
could end up with a totally dry forecast for Friday.  This
definitely shows the impact of a dramatic shift in the Northern
Hemispheric upper level low on local weather.  Other forecasters had
noted that the ECMWF was at least hinting at a weaker solution
(lower PoPs) on Friday versus the GFS family.

With the loss of significant PoP chances on Friday and decent
ridging behind the weakening frontal boundary moving and decaying
across the area, decided to raise max/min temperature forecast by
roughly two degrees above forecast values.  This may be too
conservative and could be adjusted higher depending on the amount of
evaporation today and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Should be a nice Easter Sunday as we remain between high pressure
off the Northeast Coast and weak low pressure out over the western
Plains. Weak southerly flow and sunshine should help boost
temperatures well into the 70s to near 80.

The system out to our west will slowly make it`s way into our area
early next week. Again, the sfc low looks to be quite weak, and
the mid lvl trof should remain slightly positively tilted. Thus,
will not go too high with POPs or actual rain amounts at this
time. The 12z GFS QPF output just seems overdone over our west and
north given the expected pattern. Leaned toward the lighter ECMWF
for this package. High pressure should finally move back in for
the mid/late week time frame with above normal temperatures
continuing. In fact, high temperatures in the 70s appear likely
this entire long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 639 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Skies are clear over the area this evening, as a storm system
over the Gulf Coast is bottling up the low-level moisture that
would otherwise be feeding into a weak surface boundary that has
stalled out just to our north and west. South winds will become
light and variable overnight, and then the area will be caught up
in the circulation about the Gulf Coast system, resulting in light
north or northeast winds by midday Friday. Clouds will increase
overnight, but most ceilings will be 12-15kft, with an
intermittent ceiling possible around 4-6kft. Precipitation is not
anticipated. Skies will clear in the mid to late morning hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...MEFFERT
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 172324
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...ABE





000
FXUS63 KJKL 172324
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...ABE




000
FXUS63 KLMK 172254
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A weakening front will approach from the northwest tonight. Winds
will become light and variable this evening and continue that way
through tomorrow as the front slowly moves into the area. Cirrus
will continue to stream over the area tonight with a scattered to
broken cu deck developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 172254
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A weakening front will approach from the northwest tonight. Winds
will become light and variable this evening and continue that way
through tomorrow as the front slowly moves into the area. Cirrus
will continue to stream over the area tonight with a scattered to
broken cu deck developing tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KPAH 172013
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

The trend toward minimal PoP/Weather impact for tonight through
Friday continues with this package. Ironically, the NAM-WRF model
family, including the Short Range Ensemble (SREF) remains the most
aggressive in saturating parcels enough to support at least small
precipitation chances.

The surface to mid-level trough continues to sharpen this afternoon
across Kansas and Missouri, and is evident in the persistent lift and
saturation implied through the Infrared, water vapor difference
channels, visible satellite and surface observations under cloud
cover. The NAM-WRF moisture/lift fields appear to match well with
observations, so weighted the short term forecast closer to a
scenario where a narrow Southwest to Northeast zone of lift develops
late tonight and early Friday across the WFO PAH forecast area.
Although the SREF PoPs were the most robust with this feature with
respect to PoPs, a more "watered-down" approach was considered, as
the lift weakens rapidly during the late morning and afternoon on
Friday. The proposed PoPS/Weather expected (mainly over KY/Southeast
IL late tonight and early Friday may still be too robust and we
could end up with a totally dry forecast for Friday.  This
definitely shows the impact of a dramatic shift in the Northern
Hemispheric upper level low on local weather.  Other forecasters had
noted that the ECMWF was at least hinting at a weaker solution
(lower PoPs) on Friday versus the GFS family.

With the loss of significant PoP chances on Friday and decent
ridging behind the weakening frontal boundary moving and decaying
across the area, decided to raise max/min temperature forecast by
roughly two degrees above forecast values.  This may be too
conservative and could be adjusted higher depending on the amount of
evaporation today and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Should be a nice Easter Sunday as we remain between high pressure
off the Northeast Coast and weak low pressure out over the western
Plains. Weak southerly flow and sunshine should help boost
temperatures well into the 70s to near 80.

The system out to our west will slowly make it`s way into our area
early next week. Again, the sfc low looks to be quite weak, and
the mid lvl trof should remain slightly positively tilted. Thus,
will not go too high with POPs or actual rain amounts at this
time. The 12z GFS QPF output just seems overdone over our west and
north given the expected pattern. Leaned toward the lighter ECMWF
for this package. High pressure should finally move back in for
the mid/late week time frame with above normal temperatures
continuing. In fact, high temperatures in the 70s appear likely
this entire long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Adjustments for 18z Thursday TAF issuance mainly addresses transition
from unrestricted VFR clouds and wind gusts during maximum midday
insolation and mixing, onward to VFR ceilings in advance of
approaching frontal boundary from the northwest. Additional groups
were introduced for variation in wind direction and a small period
of light rain potential at KPAH and KOWB. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through period despite approaching front.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...MEFFERT
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171904
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 230 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

Weakening cold front is roughly along a line from KLOT to KSTL, with
just a few radar returns noted along it. This front will not make
much progress southeast overnight, as the upper trough behind it
splits into a separate upper low over the Arklatex and another
feature that heads by to our north. Models continue to come in drier
for rain chances Friday, thanks in part to this split keeping more
of the moisture down to our south with a storm developing along the
Gulf coast. We still will see increasing clouds, but have continued
the trend of backing off rain chances, now just isolated over the
northwest third of the forecast area.

As for temperatures, higher dewpoints today and increasing clouds
overnight should mean warmer lows, likely in the 40s for most
places. Highs tomorrow should be similar to today, even with the
cloud coverage, given the warmer start to the day. Readings Friday
night will depend on how strong of a northeasterly flow we set up on
the back side of that storm system mentioned above, which by
daybreak Saturday looks to be along the Georgia coast. For now have
readings a few degrees warmer than tonights.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The latest guidance continues to indicate a warming trend through
the long-term period, as 850 hPa temperatures and 1000-500 hPa
thicknesses increase across the Ohio Valley. The only bump in the
road will be with a frontal passage late Monday and Tuesday, but
this should be a minor event with no major hazardous weather
expected.

This weekend will feature temperatures in the low to middle 70s
Saturday and middle to upper 70s Sunday, with both days having
mostly sunny skies and light winds. Should be a great weekend for
outdoor activities. Clouds will increase late Sunday as our next
weather system approaches the Middle Mississippi Valley.

A progressive upper wave and associated weak surface trough will
push through the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday. Scattered
showers with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
Monday into Tuesday. The cold front will push to our east by Tuesday
night and we turn dry through Thursday, as ridging builds across the
region. Temperatures should be in the 70s for much of next week.
Tuesday appears to be the coolest day with highs in the lower 70s,
with Thursday appearing to be the warmest day with highs around 80.
Overnight lows in the 50s will be common.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 171859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 171859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 171859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 171859
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. THIS EVENING
STARTS OUT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND A
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW IT WILL BE FALLING APART.
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE FOCUSING THE ENERGY ON THE SOUTHERN STREAM WITH
A SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT...THE CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE A LITTLE AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT WAS BEING
INDICATED IN THE MODELS. AS SUCH...THE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE
MORE EFFICIENT AND IT WILL CAUSE THE TEMPERATURES TO FALL MORE TONIGHT
THAN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FROST TO FORM TONIGHT. IT SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO DESERVE AN ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS SOLUTIONS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY AND
PLEASANTLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH OR NEAR PERFECT SPRING LIKE
WEATHER.

SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER AS EARLY AS
LATE MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM ROLLS THOUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION. TO DATE THIS SYSTEM HAS APPEARED
DISORGANIZED. BUT POSSIBLE PHASING IN PART WITH A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH BY EARLY TUESDAY MAY HELP INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION AND IN
TURN THE THREAT OF RAIN. ATTM TIMING AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT WE COULD NOT RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW POP UP
SHOWERS LATE MONDAY...IN LINE WITH NATIONAL GUIDANCE AND NEIGHBORS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW A CAP AT ABOUT H800...A BIT WEAKER IN THE
WEST AND STRONGER IN THE EAST...WHICH MAY INHIBIT ACTIVITY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BUT HEIGHT FALLS ARE SUCH THAT THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH BY LATE IN THE DAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME POP UPS. ALSO...
THERE IS ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THAT ANYTHING THAT MAY
FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. FELT IT
PRUDENT TO REINTRODUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT POP IN THE WEST BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL KEEP INHERITED DRY WEATHER IN THE
EAST UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW CAP GENERALLY BEING LIFTED OUT. BETTER THREAT OF RAIN ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST CATCHES UP TO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME PHASING TAKING PLACE.
THEREAFTER...RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF FAIR...WARM WEATHER TO
FINISH OUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171723
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

A dissipating frontal boundary will approach from the northwest
tonight. Winds ahead of this front the rest of the afternoon will be
from the south and southwest. As the night falls and the pressure
gradient loosens with the front approaching, winds will become light
and variable. Low-level moisture is still lacking with this front,
so expect VFR conditions the rest of this period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 171649
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Quick update to reflect faster rise in surface temperatures
and higher surface wind velocities later this morning and
this afternoon. The 00z Thursday run of the ARW version of the
4 km NAM-WRF is best depicting the transition of temperature and
wind fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

South winds and sunshine through the morning hours will lead to a
nice warm up today, with high temperatures in the middle to upper
60s. Models and numerical guidance indicate increasing clouds late
today and tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Models
continue to trend downward on QPF with the passage of the front.
NAM keeps the entire PAH forecast area dry, while GFS and ECMWF
show just a hundredth here and there late tonight and Friday
morning. Have dropped pops back area wide to slight chances late
tonight, and kept slights going for just our eastern half of
counties Friday morning.

The passage of the front will have no affect on temperatures, with
guidance indicating temperatures on Friday actually a couple of
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will remain seasonal into
Friday night, then climb to slightly above seasonal readings in
the lower to middle 70s for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
by late Sunday afternoon, however models still not in the best
agreement on this. Precipitation chances are only expected to make
it about halfway across the CWA Sunday night, but the best chance
for widespread precipitation still looks better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters still expected to be strong enough to continue the
mention of thunder Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Precipitation chances will slowly diminish from west to east Monday
night as the upper trough passes, however showers on the back side
of the aforementioned system may linger over the far southeast
sections of our CWA Tuesday morning. Still low confidence in this
period due to continual model disagreement.

Temperatures near normal (low 70s) at the beginning of the period
are expected to warm to above normal (upper 70s) by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Adjustments for 18z Thursday TAF issuance mainly addresses transition
from unrestricted VFR clouds and wind gusts during maximum midday
insolation and mixing, onward to VFR ceilings in advance of
approaching frontal boundary from the northwest. Additional groups
were introduced for variation in wind direction and a small period
of light rain potential at KPAH and KOWB. Otherwise, VFR
conditions expected through period despite approaching front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 171509
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1009 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

Quick update to reflect faster rise in surface temperatures
and higher surface wind velocities later this morning and
this afternoon. The 00z Thursday run of the ARW version of the
4 km NAM-WRF is best depicting the transition of temperature and
wind fields.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

South winds and sunshine through the morning hours will lead to a
nice warm up today, with high temperatures in the middle to upper
60s. Models and numerical guidance indicate increasing clouds late
today and tonight ahead of an approaching weak cold front. Models
continue to trend downward on QPF with the passage of the front.
NAM keeps the entire PAH forecast area dry, while GFS and ECMWF
show just a hundredth here and there late tonight and Friday
morning. Have dropped pops back area wide to slight chances late
tonight, and kept slights going for just our eastern half of
counties Friday morning.

The passage of the front will have no affect on temperatures, with
guidance indicating temperatures on Friday actually a couple of
degrees warmer than today. Temperatures will remain seasonal into
Friday night, then climb to slightly above seasonal readings in
the lower to middle 70s for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

At the beginning of the long term period high pressure at the
surface and weak ridging aloft should make for dry conditions and
near normal temperatures Saturday night.

The approach of a surface front and attendant H5 short wave may
bring precipitation chances into the far western sections of our CWA
by late Sunday afternoon, however models still not in the best
agreement on this. Precipitation chances are only expected to make
it about halfway across the CWA Sunday night, but the best chance
for widespread precipitation still looks better Sunday night and
Monday as these features track across the region. Instability
parameters still expected to be strong enough to continue the
mention of thunder Sunday afternoon, Sunday night, and Monday.

Precipitation chances will slowly diminish from west to east Monday
night as the upper trough passes, however showers on the back side
of the aforementioned system may linger over the far southeast
sections of our CWA Tuesday morning. Still low confidence in this
period due to continual model disagreement.

Temperatures near normal (low 70s) at the beginning of the period
are expected to warm to above normal (upper 70s) by the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 715 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Weak cold front
moving across the area tonight into Friday morning could trigger a
few showers, but chances not enough to include in TAFs. South
winds at 5 to 10 kts with higher gusts today will become light
after 00z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KJKL 171345
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
945 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO EXPIRE THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORY.
ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR THE
TODAY PERIOD. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

THE UPDATE BLENDED OBSERVED EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS INTO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST GRIDS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST
RESULTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE TO OUR EAST WILL BRING ANOTHER FAIR WX DAY TO THE
REGION. DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND SUNSHINE AND A LACK OF
ANY SIGNIFICANT INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL AGAIN RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL LIMIT FIRE WX
CONCERNS.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
LACKING...SO NO PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE FAR SE CONUS AND LEAD
TO SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT THERE. LOCALLY...TEMPS WILL BE
MODERATING...BUT STILL MAY DROP COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE COLDEST VALLEY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY
CHANGE WHICH ALL MODELS SEEM TO BE AGREEING WITH IS TO SLOW DOWN
STORM SYSTEM AS IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...
CONFIDENCE IS NOT TO BAD WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE WEEKEND WILL
BE GORGEOUS ACROSS KENTUCKY AS STRONG RIDGING SETS UP OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY. A MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...PRODUCING A THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO NEED TO INCLUDE
THUNDER. IN FACT...THE OVERALL DYNAMICS ARE AWFULLY WEAK...SO
PRECIPITATION DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT MAY BE AS WIDESPREAD AS IT LOOKED
YESTERDAY. STRONG RIDGING WILL THEN RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA TOWARDS FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...THE EXTENDED LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH MILD
WEATHER THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 171236
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
836 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis will move east of the region today.  A
southerly has already developed across the region this morning.
These winds will become more southwesterly later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Wind speeds today will be between
8-10kts.  VFR cig/vsbys are expected through the period.  Some high
level cloudiness will be seen at the terminals this morning, but
these will thin out and move east throughout the day.  Another round
of high level clouds will move in later tonight in advance of the
next weather system coming into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 171236
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
836 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 835 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The Kentucky Mesonet and other observations around the area
indicate temperatures in our normally cool locations are rising
quickly, thus the threat for frost is over. Have cancelled the rest
of the advisory. Also, given the quick rise so far have trended high
temperatures up a little.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

In the near term, a batch of high level cloudiness will continue to
push eastward through the region this morning.  These clouds will
preclude full radiational cooling this morning.  Temperatures across
the region will vary this morning...depending on elevation.  While
most ASOS and KY mesonet stations are generally in the lower 40s,
the valley locations have decoupled and have readings in the middle
30s.  The higher ridge top locations are still quite warm with
middle to upper 40s being noted across far south-central KY.  Expect
temperatures to continue their nocturnal cooling trends with most
locations dropping into the upper 30s to lower 40s.  Some cooler
spots may get briefly close to freezing.  Current frost advisory
will be kept going...though frost will likely be limited to the
valley and low elevation areas that decouple...and those areas will
be generally east of I-65.  Some scattered areas of frost will be
possible in the low-lying areas west of I-65.

For today, surface high pressure ridge across the eastern US will
continue to move eastward.  This will result in a more southerly
wind flow developing across the region.  High cloud cover this
morning should thin out as the day goes on resulting in mostly sunny
conditions.  Combination of insolation and increasing southerly flow
will result in temperatures warming about another 8-10 degrees over
yesterday`s highs.  Feel that readings in the 63-68 degree range
look good.

For tonight, an upper level trough axis across the Plains will move
eastward into the Ohio Valley.  This feature will bring increasing
cloudiness into the region overnight and into Friday.  There is not
a lot of time for moisture to get advected back up into the region
and there is not much support for lift.  So, the chances of
precipitation for the overnight period look pretty small. Lows will
feature a gradient across the area.  Lowest readings will be in the
Bluegrass region with upper 30s to around 40.  Readings in the
central and west will be in the middle 40s.

For Friday, upper trough axis will swing through the region.
However, upper jet streak will drive southwest of the region and
result in an upper level cut off low developing across the
southeastern US.  Much of Friday will be mostly cloudy across the
region.  Main forcing for precipitation will be located well south
of our area, but combination of modest height falls aloft combined
with a little insolation may produce some isolated showers across
the region.  For now, have backed off on the PoPs during the day
with just a slight chance expected.  Afternoon readings will be very
near seasonal normals with highs in the 65-70 degree range.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

The start of the long term period will feature split flow aloft
across the Ohio Valley, which will transition to more of a western
trough/eastern ridge pattern by the middle of next week.  This
transition within the upper-level pattern will make for a rather
benign long-term period, with moderating temperatures being the main
focus, along with one system Monday into Tuesday.

The system mentioned above in the short term section will be pushing
east of the region by Saturday, making way for a rather pleasant
weekend.  After partly cloudy skies on Saturday and highs in the
lower 70s, temperatures will moderate into the middle 70s by Easter
Sunday with mostly sunny skies.  Have nudged temperatures up a bit
in this timeframe from the previous forecast, given the recent cool
bias seen in guidance under mostly sunny skies with a rather dry
low-level airmass in place.  Would like to see a bit more turbulent
mixing to see things really exceed guidance (surface winds will be
rather light), but a degree or so warmer seems reasonable at this
time.

The latest guidance suite has trended quite a bit slower with the
system Monday into Tuesday.  Dprog/dt fields show this trend is not
just on the 00Z cycle, it has been there the past few runs.
Therefore, have trimmed back pops Sunday night into Monday.  Given
the expected later arrival, temperatures should get a bit warmer
Monday afternoon.  Look for highs in the middle 70s, perhaps higher
if there is less cloud cover than currently anticipated.

The PV anomaly and associated weak surface reflection will push
through Monday night into Tuesday.  High pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will largely limit the moisture return ahead of this system.
This lack of low-level moisture along with generally unimpressive
dynamics means the precipitation will likely fall in the form of
scattered showers, with perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms.

The cold front will push east by Tuesday night, but the airmass
behind it won`t be too much cooler.  Upper-level ridging will
begin to build in Wednesday through the end of the workweek, which
will allow temperatures to moderate.  Will go with highs in the
middle and upper 70s for now, but would not be surprised to see
readings exceed 80 degrees by the latter half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2014

High pressure ridge axis will move east of the region today.  A
southerly has already developed across the region this morning.
These winds will become more southwesterly later this morning and
into the afternoon hours. Wind speeds today will be between
8-10kts.  VFR cig/vsbys are expected through the period.  Some high
level cloudiness will be seen at the terminals this morning, but
these will thin out and move east throughout the day.  Another round
of high level clouds will move in later tonight in advance of the
next weather system coming into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......MJ





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