000
FXUS63 KPAH 221656
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AVIATION UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOWER TROP S-SWLYS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP AMPLE MOISTURE THRU THE
COLUMN TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE
DAYTIME ATMOS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SO
WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE
ACTED UPON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH ENERGY PINWHEELING AROUND
BASE OF MEAN LONG WAVE TROF TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TREND MORE
OR LESS CONTINUES WITH A PRIMARY AND THEN 2NDARY UPPER TROF
PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS MUCH OF THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS AND REMAINS SO.

THE CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIME WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WE GET INTO THE POST SYSTEM/WAKE AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN THE COLUMN. THE
RESULT WILL BE MID WEEK MUGGY 80S/60S TRANSITIONING TO COMFORTABLE
70S/50S BY WEEKS END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.

MODELS REMAIN STUBBORNLY UNCOMPROMISING IN THEIR HANDLING OF A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DEVELOPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS
THEREFORE MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. AN INSPECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CERTAINLY LENDS SUPPORT TO THE SCENARIO
PORTRAYED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS.

CONSEQUENTLY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE A MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NECESSARY.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

CLOUDS ROTATING AROUND H5 LOW OVER NRN IA LATE THIS MORNING. WILL
HAVE SCT-BKN CU/STRATO-CU THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLD/SCT
-SHRA AND PERHAPS TS. WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
SW BREEZE WITH A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LEVEL OFF TONIGHT AND VEER SLIGHTLY WEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221646
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1245 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

Areas of low pressure will move from Iowa to lower Michigan today,
with surface trofs dropping to the south.  One such trof, combined
with an upper shortwave, should help to spark renewed showers and
thunderstorms today.  A few stronger storms could develop, with
marginally severe wind gusts as the main threat and marginally
severe hail as a secondary concern.  Any tornadic activity would be
confined to just a brief spin-up where local convective boundaries
interact.

High temperatures today will be highly dependent on cloud and shower
coverage.  Will go for highs around 80, which is consistent with
current guidance, the inherited forecast, and surrounding offices.
The warmest temperatures should be in the east.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should wane this evening, with a
fairly quiet overnight period.  The mercury will drop to around the
60 degree mark.

On Thursday the upper trof axis will finally swing through and give
us one last chance of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Moisture will be more shallow and instability not as great, so
severe weather is not expected.  Some small hail could fall from the
taller storms, though, as the upper trof moves in and wet bulb zero
heights drop.  High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s.

.Long Term (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

An amplified 500mb pattern continues late Thursday with a deep
stationary closed low forecast over the Pacific Northwest. A narrow
ridge is expected to extend north into the Canadian Front Range.
Closer to home, a very deep, cold and yet progressive trough is
expected to extend southward from Hudson`s Bay through the Great
Lakes. It is this feature that will usher in a very pleasant weekend
with cool temperatures for late May.

A relatively sharp cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River
late in the afternoon on Thursday. Much drier air will move south
overnight all the way through Tennessee as strong high pressure of
Canadian origin builds southward along the Mississippi River valley.
Brisk northwest winds late Thursday afternoon will become northerly
and continue at 10 to 15 mph through the evening hours.

Residual cloudiness Thursday evening will clear by dawn Friday.
Temperatures will cool off rapidly and bottom out in the upper 40s.
Expect mostly clear skies and cool temperatures Friday through late
Saturday. With high pressure building right over Indiana on Friday,
winds will become light from the northeast during the afternoon and
will become nearly calm by early Saturday. Despite nearly cloud-free
skies Friday afternoon, highs will struggle to reach 70, with upper
60s likely across the Bluegrass. After another cool night with lows
in the upper 40s, Saturday will warm a couple of degrees into the
lower 70s.

500mb heights will begin to build over the southern Plains by
Sunday. Eventually, ridging is forecast to expand across the Plains
and eventually into the Lower Ohio Valley from Tuesday through the
rest of the upcoming work week. This will eventually bring
mid-summer heat to much of the mid-section of the CONUS.

During this period of transition, Sunday through Tuesday, northwest
flow aloft will persist over the Lower Ohio Valley. A boundary will
develop by late Sunday across the region, separating cool dry air
and easterly winds over Ohio from more humid air advancing north
along the Mississippi River. In general, this front may lie over
northern Kentucky late Sunday, slowly moving north of the
Commonwealth through Tuesday. Moisture pooling along this boundary
coupled with occasional disturbances sliding southeastward may bring
occasional rounds of convection. The ECMWF is the farthest south
with precipitation of any of the long-term guidance, developing
widespread showers during the day Sunday right over Kentucky. Prefer
the slightly farther north GFS, which presents greater chances of
occasional convection across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass
Region.

Despite increasing clouds, low dewpoints will keep Sunday quite mild
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Both temperatures and humidities
will rise towards Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s
expected.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1245 PM EDT Wed May 22 2013

SW winds are well established over Kentucky, and mixing has picked
up just enough to support gusts near 20 kt at SDF. Speeds increasing
just enough at BWG and LEX, and we expect to see gusts by the valid
time of the TAFs. Mid-level clouds have been the limiting factor in
convection thus far, but we are starting to see some Cu and expect
that will continue to increase with heating.

POPs are quite high but it is still difficult to pin down when and
whether any storms will impact each terminal. At this point, will
carry VCTS from 20Z until 00Z Thursday, with prevailing VFR.
However, once storms do develop an update will likely be required to
get a better handle on actual impacts. If any storms directly affect
any of the airports, conditions will likely drop to MVFR if not IFR,
but only for a brief period.

Storms and winds will diminish this evening, but a VFR ceiling will
remain through the night. Broad frontal wind shift will give us SW
flow through the night, and then due west on Thursday with a VFR
ceiling. Upper-level impulse and associated cold pool aloft will
move ESE through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, and will likely
trigger scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms. However, the
better chances are in SDF and LEX, and will be late enough in the
day to be mainly limited to the 24-30 hour planning period in the
SDF TAF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........RAS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1037 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DELAY THE ONSET OF SHOWERS UNTIL AFTER NOON.
THERE IS ENOUGH DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...THAT CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY
LOW IN FIGURING OUT EXACTLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL BE.
IN GENERAL...IT IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY. THE NAM WAS SHOWING
SOME MID LEVEL WARMING AND A BIT OF A CAP POSSIBLY FORMING AROUND 500
HPA. AS SUCH ALL THE STABILITY INDUCES ARE SHOWING LESS LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MIDDLE TN/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.
THIS SHOULD WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...WE STILL EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF IT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE LONG WAVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER IT STILL KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE ACROSS OUR AREA THAN
THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MORE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW...BRINGING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD AFFECT SME AND LOZ OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. AFTER ABOUT 17Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND/OR STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 18Z AND
0Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
VALLEY FOG MAY REDEVELOP BY 6Z AND POSSIBLY BRING MVFR OR LOWER VSBY
TO THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221127 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
727 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

GRIDS WERE UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
MOVING NORTHEAST FROM EASTERN MIDDLE TN/CUMBERLAND PLATEAU REGION.
THIS SHOULD WORK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND PROBABLY WEAKEN WITH TIME. OTHERWISE...WE STILL EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME OF IT IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING POSSIBLY BEING SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE LONG WAVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER IT STILL KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE ACROSS OUR AREA THAN
THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MORE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW...BRINGING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD AFFECT SME AND LOZ OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. AFTER ABOUT 17Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND/OR STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KY. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT BETWEEN 18Z AND
0Z. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION...GENERALLY VFR IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH
VALLEY FOG MAY REDEVELOP BY 6Z AND POSSIBLY BRING MVFR OR LOWER VIS
TO THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221118
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

Areas of low pressure will move from Iowa to lower Michigan today,
with surface trofs dropping to the south.  One such trof, combined
with an upper shortwave, should help to spark renewed showers and
thunderstorms today.  A few stronger storms could develop, with
marginally severe wind gusts as the main threat and marginally
severe hail as a secondary concern.  Any tornadic activity would be
confined to just a brief spin-up where local convective boundaries
interact.

High temperatures today will be highly dependent on cloud and shower
coverage.  Will go for highs around 80, which is consistent with
current guidance, the inherited forecast, and surrounding offices.
The warmest temperatures should be in the east.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should wane this evening, with a
fairly quiet overnight period.  The mercury will drop to around the
60 degree mark.

On Thursday the upper trof axis will finally swing through and give
us one last chance of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Moisture will be more shallow and instability not as great, so
severe weather is not expected.  Some small hail could fall from the
taller storms, though, as the upper trof moves in and wet bulb zero
heights drop.  High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s.

.Long Term (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 22 2013

An amplified 500mb pattern continues late Thursday with a deep
stationary closed low forecast over the Pacific Northwest. A narrow
ridge is expected to extend north into the Canadian Front Range.
Closer to home, a very deep, cold and yet progressive trough is
expected to extend southward from Hudson`s Bay through the Great
Lakes. It is this feature that will usher in a very pleasant weekend
with cool temperatures for late May.

A relatively sharp cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River
late in the afternoon on Thursday. Much drier air will move south
overnight all the way through Tennessee as strong high pressure of
Canadian origin builds southward along the Mississippi River valley.
Brisk northwest winds late Thursday afternoon will become northerly
and continue at 10 to 15 mph through the evening hours.

Residual cloudiness Thursday evening will clear by dawn Friday.
Temperatures will cool off rapidly and bottom out in the upper 40s.
Expect mostly clear skies and cool temperatures Friday through late
Saturday. With high pressure building right over Indiana on Friday,
winds will become light from the northeast during the afternoon and
will become nearly calm by early Saturday. Despite nearly cloud-free
skies Friday afternoon, highs will struggle to reach 70, with upper
60s likely across the Bluegrass. After another cool night with lows
in the upper 40s, Saturday will warm a couple of degrees into the
lower 70s.

500mb heights will begin to build over the southern Plains by
Sunday. Eventually, ridging is forecast to expand across the Plains
and eventually into the Lower Ohio Valley from Tuesday through the
rest of the upcoming work week. This will eventually bring
mid-summer heat to much of the mid-section of the CONUS.

During this period of transition, Sunday through Tuesday, northwest
flow aloft will persist over the Lower Ohio Valley. A boundary will
develop by late Sunday across the region, separating cool dry air
and easterly winds over Ohio from more humid air advancing north
along the Mississippi River. In general, this front may lie over
northern Kentucky late Sunday, slowly moving north of the
Commonwealth through Tuesday. Moisture pooling along this boundary
coupled with occasional disturbances sliding southeastward may bring
occasional rounds of convection. The ECMWF is the farthest south
with precipitation of any of the long-term guidance, developing
widespread showers during the day Sunday right over Kentucky. Prefer
the slightly farther north GFS, which presents greater chances of
occasional convection across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass
Region.

Despite increasing clouds, low dewpoints will keep Sunday quite mild
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Both temperatures and humidities
will rise towards Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s
expected.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

IFR and even some LIFR ceilings formed west of SDF and BWG earlier
this morning.  So far there have been no signs of low clouds at any
of the airports.  Will tentatively continue with a VFR TAF for all
three sites, but SDF and BWG will have to be closely monitored for
any low cloud development.

Some valley fog has also formed this morning, but is not expected to
impact the terminals.

During the daylight hours winds will pick up from the SSW and
convection is expected to redevelop by afternoon as the atmosphere
warms and an upper level disturbance interacts with a weak surface
trof.

For now will allow the convection to die back in the evening and
keep the TAFs dry for tonight. Winds will gradually turn to the west
by Thursday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13/RAS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220833 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THE LONG WAVE BLOCKY PATTERN THAT
WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A
LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM CANADA. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT DOWN INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF
THIS FEATURE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...HOWEVER IT STILL KEEPS THIS
BOUNDARY POSITIONED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND MORE ACROSS OUR AREA THAN
THE GFS...WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MORE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. AS
SUCH...WILL CONTINUE TO COMPROMISE WITH A BLEND FOR NOW...BRINGING IN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN CHANCE POPS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FIRST 6
TO 10 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS IN...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MINIMAL
ATTM. AND/AFTER ABOUT 15Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AND SEVERE THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL
THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE 18Z AND 0Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. AT THE TAF SITES...SOME
MVFR IN BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KPAH 220826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

LOWER TROP S-SWLYS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP AMPLE MOISTURE THRU THE
COLUMN TODAY. DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE THE
DAYTIME ATMOS TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. SO
WITH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SUFFICIENTLY IN PLACE...IT SHOULD BE
ACTED UPON AS HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WITH ENERGY PINWHEELING AROUND
BASE OF MEAN LONG WAVE TROF TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS TREND MORE
OR LESS CONTINUES WITH A PRIMARY AND THEN 2NDARY UPPER TROF
PASSAGE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS MUCH OF THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FOR THE LAST 3 DAYS AND REMAINS SO.

THE CHANGE IN WEATHER REGIME WILL OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AS WE GET INTO THE POST SYSTEM/WAKE AIRMASS WHICH WILL BE
PLEASANTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WORKING DOWN THE COLUMN. THE
RESULT WILL BE MID WEEK MUGGY 80S/60S TRANSITIONING TO COMFORTABLE
70S/50S BY WEEKS END.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF DRY AND MILD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING HIGH.

MODELS REMAIN STUBBORNLY UNCOMPROMISING IN THEIR HANDLING OF A
BAROCLINIC ZONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS RATHER LOW...ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF
DEVELOPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS
THEREFORE MUCH WETTER THAN THE GFS. AN INSPECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF THE ECMWF AND GFS CERTAINLY LENDS SUPPORT TO THE SCENARIO
PORTRAYED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS.

CONSEQUENTLY...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY SHOULD RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...WHICH WOULD IMPLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MUCH OF WESTERN KENTUCKY WHERE A MID LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED. THE GOING FORECAST
HANDLES THIS WELL...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NECESSARY.

WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MOST RECENT BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS ERN TAF SITES
(KEVV/KOWB) AT THIS WRITING WILL TEMPORARILY RESTRICT CIGS TO MVFR
THRU EARLY AM. NEW DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH LOW VFR CIGS RESTRICTED TO MVFR AT TIMES IN
-SHRA/-TSRA WHICH LIKEWISE COULD PRODUCE MVFR RESTRICTED VSBYS. A
GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE
TERMINAL EFFECTIVE VALID TIME LENDS TOWARD A VICINITY APPROACH FOR
THE LINGERING POP CHANCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW HAD MEANDERED TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. TO ITS SOUTH A RATHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS WORKING TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY
REGIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO WORK INTO THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO REACH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES/LOWER TO MID OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY REGION BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
SHOULD TRACK WELL INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH THE TRIALING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE COMMONWEALTH
TODAY...THOUGH IT SHOULD NOT CROSS EASTERN KY UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

THE REGION IS CURRENTLY IN A LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED OVER
WESTERN KY AND IN THE MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUE EVENING HAS WORKED INTO
THE CWA. IT IS LIKELY RATHER ILL DEFINED ATTM...BUT STILL MAY BE
ENOUGH TO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. ALSO...DEBRIS
CLOUDS OR PERHAPS SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN
THE DAY AS REMAINING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN WORKS
NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY. HOWEVER...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND SOME LIMITED HEATING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RATHER QUICKLY
REACH THE 80S BY MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME THAT WINDS ALOFT WILL
ALSO BE INCREASING WITH LOW LEVEL JET CORE REMAINING GENERALLY TO OUR
WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH
AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...A LINE OR
SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP TO OUR WEST OR
PERHAPS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND WORK ACROSS THE AREA INTO
THE EVENING. THE FORECAST WIND PROFILE IS RATHER UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS LIMITED AND CONSIDERING FEW HAIL REPORTS FROM
TUE AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHEAR
WILL BE A BIT BETTER GENERALLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE I 64 CORRIDOR AND
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN THE HWO...THE SLIGHT RISK
AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST TONIGHT...BUT
AT THE SAME TIME...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND LEAD SHORTWAVE
WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE AREA. CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT WELL
INTO THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...BUT COVERAGE OF THUNDER
SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON AND WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING INTENSITY SHOULD WANE BY 3Z...OR 11 PM EDT...IF NOT
EARLIER.

DAYTIME HEATING ON THU COMBINED WITH THE COLD FRONT WORKING ACROSS
EASTERN KY AND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS TO WORK THROUGH
SHOULD GENERALLY COINCIDE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR SHOWERS THOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FIRST 6
TO 10 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS IN...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MINIMAL
ATTM. AND/AFTER ABOUT 15Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AND SEVERE THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL
THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE 18Z AND 0Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. AT THE TAF SITES...SOME
MVFR IN BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 220714
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.Short Term (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

Areas of low pressure will move from Iowa to lower Michigan today,
with surface trofs dropping to the south.  One such trof, combined
with an upper shortwave, should help to spark renewed showers and
thunderstorms today.  A few stronger storms could develop, with
marginally severe wind gusts as the main threat and marginally
severe hail as a secondary concern.  Any tornadic activity would be
confined to just a brief spin-up where local convective boundaries
interact.

High temperatures today will be highly dependent on cloud and shower
coverage.  Will go for highs around 80, which is consistent with
current guidance, the inherited forecast, and surrounding offices.
The warmest temperatures should be in the east.

Shower and thunderstorm activity should wane this evening, with a
fairly quiet overnight period.  The mercury will drop to around the
60 degree mark.

On Thursday the upper trof axis will finally swing through and give
us one last chance of showers and thunderstorms with this system.
Moisture will be more shallow and instability not as great, so
severe weather is not expected.  Some small hail could fall from the
taller storms, though, as the upper trof moves in and wet bulb zero
heights drop.  High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s.

.Long Term (Thursday Night - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Tue May 22 2013

An amplified 500mb pattern continues late Thursday with a deep
stationary closed low forecast over the Pacific Northwest. A narrow
ridge is expected to extend north into the Canadian Front Range.
Closer to home, a very deep, cold and yet progressive trough is
expected to extend southward from Hudson`s Bay through the Great
Lakes. It is this feature that will usher in a very pleasant weekend
with cool temperatures for late May.

A relatively sharp cold front will move southeast of the Ohio River
late in the afternoon on Thursday. Much drier air will move south
overnight all the way through Tennessee as strong high pressure of
Canadian origin builds southward along the Mississippi River valley.
Brisk northwest winds late Thursday afternoon will become northerly
and continue at 10 to 15 mph through the evening hours.

Residual cloudiness Thursday evening will clear by dawn Friday.
Temperatures will cool off rapidly and bottom out in the upper 40s.
Expect mostly clear skies and cool temperatures Friday through late
Saturday. With high pressure building right over Indiana on Friday,
winds will become light from the northeast during the afternoon and
will become nearly calm by early Saturday. Despite nearly cloud-free
skies Friday afternoon, highs will struggle to reach 70, with upper
60s likely across the Bluegrass. After another cool night with lows
in the upper 40s, Saturday will warm a couple of degrees into the
lower 70s.

500mb heights will begin to build over the southern Plains by
Sunday. Eventually, ridging is forecast to expand across the Plains
and eventually into the Lower Ohio Valley from Tuesday through the
rest of the upcoming work week. This will eventually bring mid-summer
heat to much of the mid-section of the CONUS.

During this period of transition, Sunday through Tuesday, northwest
flow aloft will persist over the Lower Ohio Valley. A boundary will
develop by late Sunday across the region, separating cool dry air and
easterly winds over Ohio from more humid air advancing north along
the Mississippi River. In general, this front may lie over northern
Kentucky late Sunday, slowly moving north of the Commonwealth
through Tuesday. Moisture pooling along this boundary coupled with
occasional disturbances sliding southeastward may bring occasional
rounds of convection. The ECMWF is the farthest south with
precipitation of any of the long-term guidance, developing
widespread showers during the day Sunday right over Kentucky. Prefer
the slightly farther north GFS, which presents greater chances of
occasional convection across southern Indiana and the Bluegrass
Region.

Despite increasing clouds, low dewpoints will keep Sunday quite mild
with highs in the mid to upper 70s. Both temperatures and humidities
will rise towards Tuesday with highs in the lower to mid 80s
expected.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

The morning hours should be quiet at all three TAF sites, with SSW
winds around 6-9 knots.  The low level jet is increasing, but should
remain right at or just below LLWS criteria.  It`s almost all speed
shear, with very little if any directional shear.

LIFR ceilings formed at CKV and HOP earlier, and fog was seen to
form on the Mammoth Cave NP web cam.  These are a concern for BWG,
but right now the hope is that there is enough of a breeze and upper
cloud cover to prevent sub-VFR conditions at the airport.  Will
continue to monitor.

During the daylight hours winds will pick up from the SSW and
convection may reform by afternoon as the atmosphere warms.

For now will allow the convection to die back in the evening and
keep the TAFs dry for tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220602 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

HOURLY TEMP...DEWPOINT AND SKY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON
RECENT OBS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS WORKING ITS
WAY INTO THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION. EAST KY IS GENERALLY WORKED OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE WESTERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AS THIS WORKS IN. PATCHY FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DID AN OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO BETTER TIME THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST
TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS OUR RAIN COOLED
AIR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT LEFT WITH THIS TO
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE HILLS
EARLY THIS NIGHT AND IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST
MATCHED UP THE CURRENT OBS AND TREND TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE HWO AND
ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A RELATIVE LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE FIRST 6
TO 10 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOALTED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND
PERHAPS AN ISOALTED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WORKS IN...BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER MINIMAL
ATTM. AND/AFTER ABOUT 15Z...CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN AND SEVERE THREAT AND STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD IMPACT ALL
THREE TAF SITES AT SOME POINT DURING THE 18Z AND 0Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF
ANY CONVECTION...VALLEY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME DENSE
IN RIVER VALLEYS...BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 13Z. AT THE TAF SITES...SOME
MVFR IN BR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z OR 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 220527
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
127 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

A parade of MCSs has taken shape in the WSW flow from the southern
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. One MCS dissipated as it
moved across Kentucky this morning, and the next MCS in line has a
leading convective line extending from just SE of Elizabethtown,
southward into middle Tennessee. Near-severe wind gusts have been
observed already, and the potential remains for SVR winds in an
unstable and mostly unidirectionally-sheared environment. Hail is a
lesser threat, and tornado threat will be very minimal.

Expect showers and storms to continue for the next few hours, and
will try to delineate between the more numerous storms south of the
Bluegrass Parkway and the hit-and-miss activity that remains
possible farther north, but has not developed yet.

The evening looks to be dry as the heating of the day will be lost,
and we will be in a lull between systems. POPs will ramp up again
toward morning, especially in the west as low-level jetting
increases and fuels yet another MCS.

Tomorrow morning will look fairly similar to this morning, only with
the MCS closer to central Kentucky and probably lasting longer as
the low-level jet is a bit more persistent just ahead of the front.
MCS should still weaken or dissipate by midday, but will again leave
behind plenty of boundaries in an juicy environment. This bodes well
for re-development in the heat of the afternoon, which supports
likely POPs again.

Precip will diminish from west to east, mainly Wednesday evening as
the front pushes in and deeper moisture is shunted to our south and
east.

Not much confidence in the temp forecast as it will be modulated by
clouds and precip. Expect mins in the lower/mid 60s, with daytime
temps hitting 80. Max temps have the higher bust potential, as too
much rain will keep us in the mid 70s, while substantial breaks of
sunshine will give us mid 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

At the start of the long-term period, the slow moving cold front
that is currently across the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
will be exiting our forecast area to the east. The convection
associated with the front will be pushed east and we should start
Thursday dry. However, the upper trough axis will be swinging across
the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Believe some
low-topped showers will develop in afternoon, which could produce
locally gusty winds. There could be some thunder with these showers,
but it will be isolated as cloud tops will be around or just
slightly above the freezing level. Breezy southwest winds will
become northwesterly through the day Thursday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will continue through the
weekend, as high pressure of Canadian origin builds southward
through the Mississippi Valley Friday and into the Ohio Valley for
the holiday weekend. Despite clearing skies, Friday will stay quite
cool, with highs ranging from the middle 60s to right around 70
degrees. Temperatures will slowly moderate to low 70s in our north
to upper 70s in our south by Sunday, as ridging aloft edges back
over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows during the weekend will be
rather cool with the low humidity. Expect lows around 50 degrees
Saturday morning, rising into the middle 50s Sunday morning.

By late Sunday, ridging will strengthen across the southern Plains,
with northwest flow aloft developing across the Ohio Valley. A warm
front will move northward across the forecast area, with moisture
beginning to pool late Sunday along and north of this boundary. The
warm front is expected to stretch along a line from Iowa southeast
through northern Kentucky Monday and shift north Tuesday. However,
there is a lot of model spread associated with the placement of this
boundary. The placement is significant because isolated to scattered
convection is expected to periodically develop along this boundary
and propagate in waves southeastward late Sunday through Monday and
perhaps even into Tuesday. This will spread showers and storms
across the region, but timing and locations to be impacted are much
in question. So, will continue with the running forecast of a slight
chance.

As for temperatures Monday through Tuesday, we should see a warm up
if heights aloft increase and the warm front lifts north. Will go
with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s, but
this has a high bust potential if waves of storms track across the
region and cloud cover inundates the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 127 AM EDT Wed May 22 2013

The morning hours should be quiet at all three TAF sites, with SSW
winds around 6-9 knots.  The low level jet is increasing, but should
remain right at or just below LLWS criteria.  It`s almost all speed
shear, with very little if any directional shear.

LIFR ceilings formed at CKV and HOP earlier, and fog was seen to
form on the Mammoth Cave NP web cam.  These are a concern for BWG,
but right now the hope is that there is enough of a breeze and upper
cloud cover to prevent sub-VFR conditions at the airport.  Will
continue to monitor.

During the daylight hours winds will pick up from the SSW and
convection may reform by afternoon as the atmosphere warms.

For now will allow the convection to die back in the evening and
keep the TAFs dry for tonight.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KPAH 220505
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1205 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

SEVERAL GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE OF WHICH IS TO
TAKE THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY. AS WAVES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME REGENERATION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SO
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT CLEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER WEST KENTUCKY AT
06Z HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOMORROW AND AS STORMS WEAKEN
IN THE MORNING...SOME SUNSHINE MAY CREATE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

WE MOVE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT BY 06Z THURSDAY...BUT BRING
BACKS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS COME IN BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. BY 12Z SATURDAY...ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE
GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING FARTHER EAST AND A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THUS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
NORTH AND KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY. GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND
PREFER TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTH. GFS THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND BUILDING NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY.  AFTER A COOLER START
TO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. CIGS AND VBSYS WILL TEND TO LOWER THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS AND TYPICAL NOCTURNAL TRENDS.
PRECIP WILL END WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSES...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS WILL RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE DAY...AND
SHOULD BE VFR BY LATE MORNING. SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT WED
EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WINDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220315 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DID AN OVERNIGHT UPDATE TO BETTER TIME THE NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
MESOSCALE FEATURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST
TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT COMES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS OUR RAIN COOLED
AIR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH LIFT LEFT WITH THIS TO
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH DAWN. HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE HILLS
EARLY THIS NIGHT AND IN THE VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN. OTHERWISE...JUST
MATCHED UP THE CURRENT OBS AND TREND TO THE T AND TD GRIDS. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS ALONG WITH THE HWO AND
ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING BUT MOSTLY IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS. THINKING THAT SOME MIST MAY DRIFT ACROSS JKL IN THE MORNING.
EXPECTING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 220105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS.
THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE LINE OF STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO WEST
VIRGINIA. WIDESPREAD DAMAGE WAS REPORTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS WHAT THE SQUALL
LINE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL DO. BY RAW
EXTRAPOLATION...THE LINE WOULD BE MOVING NEAR EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...AM GOING WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS
THAT THE LINE WILL DIE OUT JUST AS IT ENTERS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TONIGHT TO SEE WHAT IT DOES. AS THE LOWER
PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...IT WILL BE MUCH HARDER TO MIX
DOWN ANY STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE...SO IT SHOULD MAINLY BE A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT. THINGS WILL GET MORE ACTIVE AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE TOMORROW. CONDITIONS ARE MOSTLY VFR ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECTING SOME VALLEY FOG THIS MORNING BUT MOSTLY IN THE DEEP
VALLEYS. THINKING THAT SOME MIST MAY DRIFT ACROSS JKL IN THE MORNING.
EXPECTING THE BIGGEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TAF.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KLMK 220056
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
856 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 855 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

The next line of storms on radar will be moving into western
portions of the forecast area within the next hour. The strongest
portion of this line is at the northern end and this area should
track along and north of the Ohio River. How long this system holds
together is somewhat in question. Most mesoscale models show it
weakening as it continues east tonight and becoming more scattered
in nature. The models don`t have a great handle on the ongoing
strength. However, the general trend seems reasonable. The next line
of storms will them move in towards morning as a weak LLJ develops
and a shortwave approaches. Rather than try and time this out
specifically, have kept pops in the likely category for most of the
night across the western portion of the forecast area. Further east
the precipitation chances will be more scattered in nature overnight.

Issued at 630 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

The storms have moved out of the area this evening and the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. The next batch of storms is
just starting to move into far western Kentucky this evening. These
storms are expected to move into the forecast area late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Have adjusted pops down over the next
few hours before ramping them up again overnight. Updates are
already out.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

A parade of MCSs has taken shape in the WSW flow from the southern
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. One MCS dissipated as it
moved across Kentucky this morning, and the next MCS in line has a
leading convective line extending from just SE of Elizabethtown,
southward into middle Tennessee. Near-severe wind gusts have been
observed already, and the potential remains for SVR winds in an
unstable and mostly unidirectionally-sheared environment. Hail is a
lesser threat, and tornado threat will be very minimal.

Expect showers and storms to continue for the next few hours, and
will try to delineate between the more numerous storms south of the
Bluegrass Parkway and the hit-and-miss activity that remains
possible farther north, but has not developed yet.

The evening looks to be dry as the heating of the day will be lost,
and we will be in a lull between systems. POPs will ramp up again
toward morning, especially in the west as low-level jetting
increases and fuels yet another MCS.

Tomorrow morning will look fairly similar to this morning, only with
the MCS closer to central Kentucky and probably lasting longer as
the low-level jet is a bit more persistent just ahead of the front.
MCS should still weaken or dissipate by midday, but will again leave
behind plenty of boundaries in an juicy environment. This bodes well
for re-development in the heat of the afternoon, which supports
likely POPs again.

Precip will diminish from west to east, mainly Wednesday evening as
the front pushes in and deeper moisture is shunted to our south and
east.

Not much confidence in the temp forecast as it will be modulated by
clouds and precip. Expect mins in the lower/mid 60s, with daytime
temps hitting 80. Max temps have the higher bust potential, as too
much rain will keep us in the mid 70s, while substantial breaks of
sunshine will give us mid 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

At the start of the long-term period, the slow moving cold front
that is currently across the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
will be exiting our forecast area to the east. The convection
associated with the front will be pushed east and we should start
Thursday dry. However, the upper trough axis will be swinging across
the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Believe some
low-topped showers will develop in afternoon, which could produce
locally gusty winds. There could be some thunder with these showers,
but it will be isolated as cloud tops will be around or just
slightly above the freezing level. Breezy southwest winds will
become northwesterly through the day Thursday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will continue through the
weekend, as high pressure of Canadian origin builds southward
through the Mississippi Valley Friday and into the Ohio Valley for
the holiday weekend. Despite clearing skies, Friday will stay quite
cool, with highs ranging from the middle 60s to right around 70
degrees. Temperatures will slowly moderate to low 70s in our north
to upper 70s in our south by Sunday, as ridging aloft edges back
over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows during the weekend will be
rather cool with the low humidity. Expect lows around 50 degrees
Saturday morning, rising into the middle 50s Sunday morning.

By late Sunday, ridging will strengthen across the southern Plains,
with northwest flow aloft developing across the Ohio Valley. A warm
front will move northward across the forecast area, with moisture
beginning to pool late Sunday along and north of this boundary. The
warm front is expected to stretch along a line from Iowa southeast
through northern Kentucky Monday and shift north Tuesday. However,
there is a lot of model spread associated with the placement of this
boundary. The placement is significant because isolated to scattered
convection is expected to periodically develop along this boundary
and propagate in waves southeastward late Sunday through Monday and
perhaps even into Tuesday. This will spread showers and storms
across the region, but timing and locations to be impacted are much
in question. So, will continue with the running forecast of a slight
chance.

As for temperatures Monday through Tuesday, we should see a warm up
if heights aloft increase and the warm front lifts north. Will go
with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s, but
this has a high bust potential if waves of storms track across the
region and cloud cover inundates the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

The TAF forecast remains tricky in regards to convection as there are
several waves of thunderstorms which may affect the sites over the
next 24-36 hours. The most immediate concern is the line of
thunderstorms currently in western KY. Many of the models have this
line weakening as it moves east. However, still think it will affect
SDF and BWG overnight. Timing the line at its current speed puts it
in to these sites between 04-05Z. Have therefore adjusted the TSRA
in the TAFs to reflect this. Beyond this time frame, additional
thunderstorms do look like they may develop towards the morning
hours. However, with uncertainty of development will carry VCTS
after 07Z through the mid morning hours. There should then be a lull
before redevelopment may occur Wednesday afternoon. Will keep the
latter portion of the TAF period dry for now, but thunderstorms may
need to be added as confidence in the forecast increases. Storms at
LEX will be more scattered in nature, especially during the first
half of the TAF period so will keep prevailing TSRA out of the TAFs
there for now.

The other concern for tomorrow will be the development of gusty
winds. Winds will strengthen out of the south through the morning
hours, with gusts in the 20-25 knot range expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........EER
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........EER

000
FXUS63 KPAH 212332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

SEVERAL GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE OF WHICH IS TO
TAKE THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY. AS WAVES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME REGENERATION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SO
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT CLEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER WEST KENTUCKY AT
06Z HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOMORROW AND AS STORMS WEAKEN
IN THE MORNING...SOME SUNSHINE MAY CREATE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

WE MOVE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT BY 06Z THURSDAY...BUT BRING
BACKS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS COME IN BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. BY 12Z SATURDAY...ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE
GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING FARTHER EAST AND A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THUS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
NORTH AND KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY. GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND
PREFER TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTH. GFS THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND BUILDING NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY.  AFTER A COOLER START
TO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

LEADING EDGE OF RAIN AND STORMS WAS OVER KPAH AT 23Z. THE LEADING
EDGE WILL REACH KEVV/KOWB BY 01Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE LEADING EDGE...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL
HOURS OF VFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. AROUND
OR AFTER 06Z...A LARGER AND HEAVIER AREA OF RAIN AND STORMS WILL
AFFECT ALL TAF SITES. THERE MAY BE SOME IFR CONDITIONS FOR BRIEF
PERIODS OF TIME OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE RAIN ENDS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 212324
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

The storms have moved out of the area this evening and the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. The next batch of storms is
just starting to move into far western Kentucky this evening. These
storms are expected to move into the forecast area late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Have adjusted pops down over the next
few hours before ramping them up again overnight. Updates are
already out.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

A parade of MCSs has taken shape in the WSW flow from the southern
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. One MCS dissipated as it
moved across Kentucky this morning, and the next MCS in line has a
leading convective line extending from just SE of Elizabethtown,
southward into middle Tennessee. Near-severe wind gusts have been
observed already, and the potential remains for SVR winds in an
unstable and mostly unidirectionally-sheared environment. Hail is a
lesser threat, and tornado threat will be very minimal.

Expect showers and storms to continue for the next few hours, and
will try to delineate between the more numerous storms south of the
Bluegrass Parkway and the hit-and-miss activity that remains
possible farther north, but has not developed yet.

The evening looks to be dry as the heating of the day will be lost,
and we will be in a lull between systems. POPs will ramp up again
toward morning, especially in the west as low-level jetting
increases and fuels yet another MCS.

Tomorrow morning will look fairly similar to this morning, only with
the MCS closer to central Kentucky and probably lasting longer as
the low-level jet is a bit more persistent just ahead of the front.
MCS should still weaken or dissipate by midday, but will again leave
behind plenty of boundaries in an juicy environment. This bodes well
for re-development in the heat of the afternoon, which supports
likely POPs again.

Precip will diminish from west to east, mainly Wednesday evening as
the front pushes in and deeper moisture is shunted to our south and
east.

Not much confidence in the temp forecast as it will be modulated by
clouds and precip. Expect mins in the lower/mid 60s, with daytime
temps hitting 80. Max temps have the higher bust potential, as too
much rain will keep us in the mid 70s, while substantial breaks of
sunshine will give us mid 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

At the start of the long-term period, the slow moving cold front
that is currently across the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
will be exiting our forecast area to the east. The convection
associated with the front will be pushed east and we should start
Thursday dry. However, the upper trough axis will be swinging across
the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Believe some
low-topped showers will develop in afternoon, which could produce
locally gusty winds. There could be some thunder with these showers,
but it will be isolated as cloud tops will be around or just
slightly above the freezing level. Breezy southwest winds will
become northwesterly through the day Thursday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will continue through the
weekend, as high pressure of Canadian origin builds southward
through the Mississippi Valley Friday and into the Ohio Valley for
the holiday weekend. Despite clearing skies, Friday will stay quite
cool, with highs ranging from the middle 60s to right around 70
degrees. Temperatures will slowly moderate to low 70s in our north
to upper 70s in our south by Sunday, as ridging aloft edges back
over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows during the weekend will be
rather cool with the low humidity. Expect lows around 50 degrees
Saturday morning, rising into the middle 50s Sunday morning.

By late Sunday, ridging will strengthen across the southern Plains,
with northwest flow aloft developing across the Ohio Valley. A warm
front will move northward across the forecast area, with moisture
beginning to pool late Sunday along and north of this boundary. The
warm front is expected to stretch along a line from Iowa southeast
through northern Kentucky Monday and shift north Tuesday. However,
there is a lot of model spread associated with the placement of this
boundary. The placement is significant because isolated to scattered
convection is expected to periodically develop along this boundary
and propagate in waves southeastward late Sunday through Monday and
perhaps even into Tuesday. This will spread showers and storms
across the region, but timing and locations to be impacted are much
in question. So, will continue with the running forecast of a slight
chance.

As for temperatures Monday through Tuesday, we should see a warm up
if heights aloft increase and the warm front lifts north. Will go
with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s, but
this has a high bust potential if waves of storms track across the
region and cloud cover inundates the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

The TAF forecast remains tricky in regards to convection as there are
several waves of thunderstorms which may affect the sites over the
next 24-36 hours. The most immediate concern is the line of
thunderstorms currently in western KY. Many of the models have this
line weakening as it moves east. However, still think it will affect
SDF and BWG overnight. Timing the line at its current speed puts it
in to these sites between 04-05Z. Have therefore adjusted the TSRA
in the TAFs to reflect this. Beyond this time frame, additional
thunderstorms do look like they may develop towards the morning
hours. However, with uncertainty of development will carry VCTS
after 07Z through the mid morning hours. There should then be a lull
before redevelopment may occur Wednesday afternoon. Will keep the
latter portion of the TAF period dry for now, but thunderstorms may
need to be added as confidence in the forecast increases. Storms at
LEX will be more scattered in nature, especially during the first
half of the TAF period so will keep prevailing TSRA out of the TAFs
there for now.

The other concern for tomorrow will be the development of gusty
winds. Winds will strengthen out of the south through the morning
hours, with gusts in the 20-25 knot range expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........EER
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........EER

000
FXUS63 KLMK 212231
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 630 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

The storms have moved out of the area this evening and the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. The next batch of storms is
just starting to move into far western Kentucky this evening. These
storms are expected to move into the forecast area late this evening
and into the overnight hours. Have adjusted pops down over the next
few hours before ramping them up again overnight. Updates are
already out.

&&

.Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

A parade of MCSs has taken shape in the WSW flow from the southern
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. One MCS dissipated as it
moved across Kentucky this morning, and the next MCS in line has a
leading convective line extending from just SE of Elizabethtown,
southward into middle Tennessee. Near-severe wind gusts have been
observed already, and the potential remains for SVR winds in an
unstable and mostly unidirectionally-sheared environment. Hail is a
lesser threat, and tornado threat will be very minimal.

Expect showers and storms to continue for the next few hours, and
will try to delineate between the more numerous storms south of the
Bluegrass Parkway and the hit-and-miss activity that remains
possible farther north, but has not developed yet.

The evening looks to be dry as the heating of the day will be lost,
and we will be in a lull between systems. POPs will ramp up again
toward morning, especially in the west as low-level jetting
increases and fuels yet another MCS.

Tomorrow morning will look fairly similar to this morning, only with
the MCS closer to central Kentucky and probably lasting longer as
the low-level jet is a bit more persistent just ahead of the front.
MCS should still weaken or dissipate by midday, but will again leave
behind plenty of boundaries in an juicy environment. This bodes well
for re-development in the heat of the afternoon, which supports
likely POPs again.

Precip will diminish from west to east, mainly Wednesday evening as
the front pushes in and deeper moisture is shunted to our south and
east.

Not much confidence in the temp forecast as it will be modulated by
clouds and precip. Expect mins in the lower/mid 60s, with daytime
temps hitting 80. Max temps have the higher bust potential, as too
much rain will keep us in the mid 70s, while substantial breaks of
sunshine will give us mid 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

At the start of the long-term period, the slow moving cold front
that is currently across the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
will be exiting our forecast area to the east. The convection
associated with the front will be pushed east and we should start
Thursday dry. However, the upper trough axis will be swinging across
the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Believe some
low-topped showers will develop in afternoon, which could produce
locally gusty winds. There could be some thunder with these showers,
but it will be isolated as cloud tops will be around or just
slightly above the freezing level. Breezy southwest winds will
become northwesterly through the day Thursday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will continue through the
weekend, as high pressure of Canadian origin builds southward
through the Mississippi Valley Friday and into the Ohio Valley for
the holiday weekend. Despite clearing skies, Friday will stay quite
cool, with highs ranging from the middle 60s to right around 70
degrees. Temperatures will slowly moderate to low 70s in our north
to upper 70s in our south by Sunday, as ridging aloft edges back
over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows during the weekend will be
rather cool with the low humidity. Expect lows around 50 degrees
Saturday morning, rising into the middle 50s Sunday morning.

By late Sunday, ridging will strengthen across the southern Plains,
with northwest flow aloft developing across the Ohio Valley. A warm
front will move northward across the forecast area, with moisture
beginning to pool late Sunday along and north of this boundary. The
warm front is expected to stretch along a line from Iowa southeast
through northern Kentucky Monday and shift north Tuesday. However,
there is a lot of model spread associated with the placement of this
boundary. The placement is significant because isolated to scattered
convection is expected to periodically develop along this boundary
and propagate in waves southeastward late Sunday through Monday and
perhaps even into Tuesday. This will spread showers and storms
across the region, but timing and locations to be impacted are much
in question. So, will continue with the running forecast of a slight
chance.

As for temperatures Monday through Tuesday, we should see a warm up
if heights aloft increase and the warm front lifts north. Will go
with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s, but
this has a high bust potential if waves of storms track across the
region and cloud cover inundates the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Still a tricky TAF set, but we seem to be coming into line with
previously advertised conditions as we get enough sunshine to
support heating.  Will initialize BWG with VCTS as a cluster of
storms makes its way east along the KY/TN border. Any direct impact
on the airport will be too brief to carry in the TAF. Convection has
yet to get going near SDF or LEX, but as temperatures warm we do
expect scattered storms to develop. As we are still a few degrees
shy of convective temps, will keep with the previous idea of
introducing VCTS beginning around 20-21Z.

Still looking for this activity to diminish after sunset with the
loss of heating. Will re-introduce precip as prevailing TSRA around
or just after midnight as the nose of a 40-50 kt low-level jet finds
its way into Kentucky. Will most likely see brief restrictions of
MVFR or even IFR later in the night, but look for prevailing VFR for
the vast majority of the time.

The latter few hours of the TAFs on Wednesday morning will be a lull
between complexes, with dry weather and VFR conditions. Only real
concern in this period will be SSW winds gusting into the 20-25 kt
range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........EER
Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RAS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 212028
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND SO A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH WAS
ISSUED FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR
STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL
LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST
FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE WINDS
COULD ARRIVE WELL AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE STORMS TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA HAVE HAD REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND...SO THIS THREAT IS REAL
AND IMMINENT. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...AND THEN WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE
STORMS TOMORROW MAY BE STRONG AS WELL. FOR TEMPERATURES...USED A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE
WATCH IS VALID UNTIL 10 PM TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECMWF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME STRONG LLWS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A TIME OF POST
FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS...THIS WAS NOT
ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST AT THE TAF
STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS THAT GET A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KPAH 212013
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A VERY COMPLEX SITUATION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

SEVERAL GROUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING ON TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN
KENTUCKY.

THE MAIN SHORT WAVE AND MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENTLY
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL ARRIVE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD BE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MIDNIGHT. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS PRODUCE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS...ONE OF WHICH IS TO
TAKE THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL LOOKS
LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5 OVER MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS CURRENTLY. AS WAVES OF STORMS MOVE THROUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME REGENERATION OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT. SO
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE GRIDS.

CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE NOT CLEAR. ISOLATED SEVERE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STORMS MAY RAMP UP AGAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER WEST KENTUCKY AT
06Z HOWEVER CAPE VALUES WILL BE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. WILL HAVE THE
EVENING SHIFT KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITUATION.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST TOMORROW AND AS STORMS WEAKEN
IN THE MORNING...SOME SUNSHINE MAY CREATE SOME BETTER INSTABILITY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SPC HAS PUT THE
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK.

WE MOVE ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION OUT BY 06Z THURSDAY...BUT BRING
BACKS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WITH A WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS COME IN BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS BY FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND COOLER
THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. BY 12Z SATURDAY...ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE
GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING FARTHER EAST AND A
WEAKER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS ALLOWS A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO SET UP FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...THUS SHOWING SOME
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. GEM AND GFS...SHOWING THE STRONGER
SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...KEEP THE BOUNDARY FARTHER
NORTH AND KEEP ANY PRECIP NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SUNDAY. GEM AND GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND
PREFER TO CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THESE SOLUTIONS. WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR EXTREME
NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY...THEN CHANCE POPS NORTH TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT DIPPING
SOUTH. GFS THEN SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDING A LITTLE
FARTHER EAST AND BUILDING NORTH ON MONDAY...WHICH WILL HELP PUSH
THE FRONT BACK NORTH. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST TO
CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY.  AFTER A COOLER START
TO THE WEEKEND...THE SOUTH WINDS WILL LEAD TO GRADUALLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY...WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCT SHRA THROUGH 00Z WITH
LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. INCREASING TSTM CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.  TSTMS
WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...RST

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211947
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...(REST OF THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A SHORT TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE A PERIOD OF GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT...AND A PERIOD OF POOR MODEL AGREEMENT. THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WERE HANDLED VERY WELL BY BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF MODELS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE EXITING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL MEAN COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER TO KICK OFF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT...THINGS GET A BIT MURKY. THE
ECWMF MODEL IS MUCH WETTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
MODEL...BOTH IN THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF ACTUALLY
HAS PRECIPITATION AFFECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS NOT MOVING PRECIP
INTO THE AREA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. FROM THEN ON THE MODELS DO
AGREE FAIRLY WELL...BUT ONLY FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID...LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE USUALLY MORE
RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM EARLY SUNDAY ONWARD. DID NOT DO
A WHOLE LOT OF MAJOR CHANGING TO THE MODEL DATA BASED ON THE AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS WERE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY...SUNDAY...AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN
THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS IT APPEARS A
COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD...THINGS WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE DURING EACH DAYTIME
PERIOD...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME STRONG LLWS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A TIME OF POST
FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS...THIS WAS NOT
ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST AT THE TAF
STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS THAT GET A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211931
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
331 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

A parade of MCSs has taken shape in the WSW flow from the southern
Plains into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. One MCS dissipated as it
moved across Kentucky this morning, and the next MCS in line has a
leading convective line extending from just SE of Elizabethtown,
southward into middle Tennessee. Near-severe wind gusts have been
observed already, and the potential remains for SVR winds in an
unstable and mostly unidirectionally-sheared environment. Hail is a
lesser threat, and tornado threat will be very minimal.

Expect showers and storms to continue for the next few hours, and
will try to delineate between the more numerous storms south of the
Bluegrass Parkway and the hit-and-miss activity that remains
possible farther north, but has not developed yet.

The evening looks to be dry as the heating of the day will be lost,
and we will be in a lull between systems. POPs will ramp up again
toward morning, especially in the west as low-level jetting
increases and fuels yet another MCS.

Tomorrow morning will look fairly similar to this morning, only with
the MCS closer to central Kentucky and probably lasting longer as
the low-level jet is a bit more persistent just ahead of the front.
MCS should still weaken or dissipate by midday, but will again leave
behind plenty of boundaries in an juicy environment. This bodes well
for re-development in the heat of the afternoon, which supports
likely POPs again.

Precip will diminish from west to east, mainly Wednesday evening as
the front pushes in and deeper moisture is shunted to our south and
east.

Not much confidence in the temp forecast as it will be modulated by
clouds and precip. Expect mins in the lower/mid 60s, with daytime
temps hitting 80. Max temps have the higher bust potential, as too
much rain will keep us in the mid 70s, while substantial breaks of
sunshine will give us mid 80s.

.Long Term (Thursday - Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

At the start of the long-term period, the slow moving cold front
that is currently across the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley
will be exiting our forecast area to the east. The convection
associated with the front will be pushed east and we should start
Thursday dry. However, the upper trough axis will be swinging across
the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Believe some
low-topped showers will develop in afternoon, which could produce
locally gusty winds. There could be some thunder with these showers,
but it will be isolated as cloud tops will be around or just
slightly above the freezing level. Breezy southwest winds will
become northwesterly through the day Thursday, with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will continue through the
weekend, as high pressure of Canadian origin builds southward
through the Mississippi Valley Friday and into the Ohio Valley for
the holiday weekend. Despite clearing skies, Friday will stay quite
cool, with highs ranging from the middle 60s to right around 70
degrees. Temperatures will slowly moderate to low 70s in our north
to upper 70s in our south by Sunday, as ridging aloft edges back
over the Ohio Valley. Overnight lows during the weekend will be
rather cool with the low humidity. Expect lows around 50 degrees
Saturday morning, rising into the middle 50s Sunday morning.

By late Sunday, ridging will strengthen across the southern Plains,
with northwest flow aloft developing across the Ohio Valley. A warm
front will move northward across the forecast area, with moisture
beginning to pool late Sunday along and north of this boundary. The
warm front is expected to stretch along a line from Iowa southeast
through northern Kentucky Monday and shift north Tuesday. However,
there is a lot of model spread associated with the placement of this
boundary. The placement is significant because isolated to scattered
convection is expected to periodically develop along this boundary
and propagate in waves southeastward late Sunday through Monday and
perhaps even into Tuesday. This will spread showers and storms
across the region, but timing and locations to be impacted are much
in question. So, will continue with the running forecast of a slight
chance.

As for temperatures Monday through Tuesday, we should see a warm up
if heights aloft increase and the warm front lifts north. Will go
with high temperatures ranging from the middle 70s to lower 80s, but
this has a high bust potential if waves of storms track across the
region and cloud cover inundates the forecast area.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Still a tricky TAF set, but we seem to be coming into line with
previously advertised conditions as we get enough sunshine to
support heating.  Will initialize BWG with VCTS as a cluster of
storms makes its way east along the KY/TN border. Any direct impact
on the airport will be too brief to carry in the TAF. Convection has
yet to get going near SDF or LEX, but as temperatures warm we do
expect scattered storms to develop. As we are still a few degrees
shy of convective temps, will keep with the previous idea of
introducing VCTS beginning around 20-21Z.

Still looking for this activity to diminish after sunset with the
loss of heating. Will re-introduce precip as prevailing TSRA around
or just after midnight as the nose of a 40-50 kt low-level jet finds
its way into Kentucky. Will most likely see brief restrictions of
MVFR or even IFR later in the night, but look for prevailing VFR for
the vast majority of the time.

The latter few hours of the TAFs on Wednesday morning will be a lull
between complexes, with dry weather and VFR conditions. Only real
concern in this period will be SSW winds gusting into the 20-25 kt
range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......RAS
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RAS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME UNEXPECTED STRONG
WINDS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT
HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION
RAPID REFRESH MODEL. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE
A TIME OF POST FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN
IMPROVE. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE
STORMS...THIS WAS NOT ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
MIST AT THE TAF STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS
THAT GET A LOT OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING EXTREME INSTABILITY TODAY. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR 4 PM AT JACKSON IS CALLING FOR TOTAL TOTALS
OF 51 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.6. THE CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 3479
JOULES. THE WIND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE A TRIGGER TO GET THE STORMS GOING. THERE IS
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BECAUSE IT IS SO EARLY IN THE DAY...THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE AND MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE UNTIL THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IT
MAY FIRE UP NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AROUND 11 AM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO INITIATE. USED THE OUTPUT OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TO TRY AND TIME SOME IMPULSES THROUGH THE
AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACTUALLY OCCURS. WITH ALL THE CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED OUT TO THE
WEST...THERE ARE BOUND TO BE SOME OLD BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE VALLEY FOG THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO
GENERATE A STORM. ONCE THE STORMS ARE GENERATED...ANY OUTFLOWS THEY
PRODUCE SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. USUALLY WITH THIS
TYPE OF SOUNDING OVER THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WILL BE
PULSE TYPE STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF ANY STRONG BOUNDARIES...TORNADOES ARE VERY
UNLIKELY TODAY AND WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO EVEN HAVE A PRAYER OF FORMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THAT
LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN KY. THIS
LED TO SOME CHANGES IN POPS...GENERALLY TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST
DURING THE AM...AND SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PRE FIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE AIR IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER JUST
UPDATED THEIR OUTLOOK AND PUT EASTERN KENTUCKY IN AN AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT IS FOR STRONG
WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT AND WILL LIKELY SEE
SMALL HAIL IN THE AREA TODAY. WITH THE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IN
THE AREA...THE POSSIBILITY OF GUST FRONTS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE SOME STRONG LLWS. CONFIDENCE
IN THE TIMING OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS NOT HIGH...AND WAS BASED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NAM AND HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN OCCURS...THERE MAY BE A TIME OF POST
FRONTAL MIST WHICH WOULD LAST A FEW HOURS AND THEN IMPROVE. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF THE STORMS...THIS WAS NOT
ADDED TO THE TAFS. ALSO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME MIST AT THE TAF
STATIONS AND VALLEY FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND NEAR AREAS THAT GET A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JJ

000
FXUS63 KPAH 211732
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NEAREST TERM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING CONVECTION/TOR WATCH BOX.
IN GENERAL...THE TREND IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY AS THE
LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. A FEW HEALTHY CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO PULSE...HOWEVER...AND WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WORKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WE`LL ONLY DROP WATCH BOX COUNTIES BEHIND
THE LINE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST...WEAKENING...AND THEN
REFIRING THIS PM/EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS THE
PICTURE. BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A SLGT
RISK OF SVR WILL CONTINUE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PTN OF
THE CWA/ESP SEMO/SWKY/SWIL...INCLUDED IN A LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING
WATCH BOX.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS MO/IL/IN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU
THE AREA. INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH TIME/OVERNIGHT BUT ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY EXTEND THRU THE
NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH AND A HIGH POP/CATEGORICAL MENTION IS
WARRANTED EITHER WAY.

THE UPPER TROF/BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THRU/TO THE EAST OF US THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY EVEN
LINGER THRU THURSDAY AS 2NDARY UPPER TROF PASSAGE ALLOWS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY THU NIGHT...WHEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR STARTS TO OVERTAKE THE COLUMN. 80S AND
60S COOL TO 70S AND 50S THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AND REACH JUST SHY OF THE SEASONAL
80 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THUS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL. BOTH THE GEM AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE...PREFER TO STEER THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
DRIER GFS AT THIS TIME.

WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z. SCT SHRA THROUGH 00Z WITH
LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE. INCREASING TSTM CHANCES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE WITH STORMS.  TSTMS
WILL DECREASE WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z...WITH LOW VFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 8 TO 14 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH GUSTS TO 20
TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211730
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Precip from the overnight MCS is dissipating over central Kentucky
as we speak. Expect to see a break in the action for the next few
hrs, but we remain in a juicy air mass and a boundary-rich
environment. No changes to the afternoon forecast for scattered
shower/T-storm activity, nor the potential for these storms to pulse
up to marginal SVR levels. Expect to update text and point-and-click
within the next hour, after we give this dissipating trend a little
more time.

&&

.Short Term (Today - Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

Early this morning a long line of showers and thunderstorms
stretched from Michigan to Oklahoma.  This line will weaken
considerably as it pushes to the southeast away from the jet energy
that was supporting it earlier.  Will have likely PoPs in southwest
Indiana before dawn, and just chance PoPs across the area after dawn
as the line continues to fall apart.

We should see a break in the action for several hours before
redevelopment takes place this afternoon.  Widespread clouds and
scattered morning showers will prevent us from destabilizing fully,
but some strong storms could still fire in the warm and juicy
atmosphere. It will be interesting to see where the outflow boundary
from this morning`s convection ends up, as that could serve as a
focus for renewed convection.  As for any severe weather, it looks
like marginally severe hail is the primary threat, with marginally
severe wind gusts a secondary threat.  Tornadoes look unlikely,
though local boundary intersections will need to be watched for the
possibility of a brief spin-up.

We may see another break this evening as afternoon convection
wanes.  Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is then expected
during the late night hours as a low level jet revs up from Memphis
to Fort Wayne.  A strong low level inversion is forecast to set up,
so small hail would be the main threat with any stronger storms.

On Wednesday the cold front that has been producing the rough
weather across the nation`s midsection recently will draw nearer
still to the LMK CWA, reaching the lower Wabash and middle
Mississippi Valleys by evening.  Additional shower and thunderstorm
development can be expected on Wednesday, particularly in the
afternoon.  Once again, widespread morning clouds and scattered
showers will prevent us from destabilizing much.  A few strong
storms will still be possible, though, with marginally severe hail
as the primary threat...marginally severe wind gusts secondary...and
tornadoes unlikely other than where local boundaries meet.

Temperatures are also very challenging given the clouds and rain.
For today will shoot for highs mostly in the middle 80s, though that
may be generous if we don`t get some sun this afternoon.  Muggy lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s once again.  Model data
vary widely on how warm we will get on Wednesday.  For now will go
with highs around 80.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Upper air pattern at 500mb late Wednesday is forecast to become
somewhat amplified with thin ridging across the northern plains
sandwiched between a deep closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a slow moving trough centered over the western Great Lakes. This
Great Lakes trough will deepen, with its base swinging across the
Commonwealth by early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will diminish during the evening hours and overnight as
veering mid-level winds will bring lower PWATs east from Missouri.
PWATs of 1.6 inches earlier Wednesday will diminish to under one
inch by dawn Thursday. Still, will maintain at least a chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorms overnight through Thursday
morning.

By late Thursday, a surface trough will move southeast of the Ohio
River, switching our winds to the northwest and eventually bringing
in substantially cooler air. Despite less available moisture, the
presence of the 500mb trough axis and a diffuse frontal boundary
will not preclude scattered low topped showers and isolated thunder
Thursday afternoon.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build southward along the
Mississippi Valley Friday, sliding east towards Ohio by Sunday
morning. Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will arrive by
Friday morning and continue through the entire weekend. Despite
clearing skies, Friday will stay quite cool and refreshing, with
highs only rising into the lower 70s at best. We can expect several
cool nights from Friday to Monday mornings with lows initially
around 50, rising into the upper 50s by Monday morning. Under mostly
clear skies, highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s.

By late Sunday, a slowly progressive 500mb wave pattern will have
moved the Great Lakes trough eastwards over New England. Ridging
will begin to build across the southern Plains, with northwest flow
developing across the Lower Ohio Valley. Moisture will begin to pool
late Sunday along and north of a warm front expected to develop
along a line from Iowa southeast through northern Kentucky. Will
introduce a chance for isolated to scattered convection late Sunday
and Monday, especially across our northern counties. Humidities will
also rise by Monday as southwesterly surface winds develop.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Still a tricky TAF set, but we seem to be coming into line with
previously advertised conditions as we get enough sunshine to
support heating.  Will initialize BWG with VCTS as a cluster of
storms makes its way east along the KY/TN border. Any direct impact
on the airport will be too brief to carry in the TAF. Convection has
yet to get going near SDF or LEX, but as temperatures warm we do
expect scattered storms to develop. As we are still a few degrees
shy of convective temps, will keep with the previous idea of
introducing VCTS beginning around 20-21Z.

Still looking for this activity to diminish after sunset with the
loss of heating. Will re-introduce precip as prevailing TSRA around
or just after midnight as the nose of a 40-50 kt low-level jet finds
its way into Kentucky. Will most likely see brief restrictions of
MVFR or even IFR later in the night, but look for prevailing VFR for
the vast majority of the time.

The latter few hours of the TAFs on Wednesday morning will be a lull
between complexes, with dry weather and VFR conditions. Only real
concern in this period will be SSW winds gusting into the 20-25 kt
range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RAS
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........RAS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211426
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING EXTREME INSTABILITY TODAY. THE
NAM BUFFER SOUNDING FOR 4 PM AT JACKSON IS CALLING FOR TOTAL TOTALS
OF 51 AND A LIFTED INDEX OF -7.6. THE CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE 3479
JOULES. THE WIND IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE
IS VERY LITTLE SHEAR. THERE IS ALSO VERY LITTLE DRY AIR ALOFT. THE
MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE A TRIGGER TO GET THE STORMS GOING. THERE IS
AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY BISECTING EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. BECAUSE IT IS SO EARLY IN THE DAY...THE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE AND MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE
FAVORABLE UNTIL THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES INTO WEST VIRGINIA. IT
MAY FIRE UP NEAR THE WEST VIRGINIA BORDER AROUND 11 AM. WILL HAVE TO
WAIT AND SEE. CURRENTLY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD FEEL ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE GOING TO INITIATE. USED THE OUTPUT OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL TO TRY AND TIME SOME IMPULSES THROUGH THE
AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW UNTIL CONVECTIVE INITIATION
ACTUALLY OCCURS. WITH ALL THE CONVECTION THAT HAS OCCURRED OUT TO THE
WEST...THERE ARE BOUND TO BE SOME OLD BOUNDARIES THAT MOVE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH THE VALLEY FOG THAT OCCURRED THIS
MORNING...SOME DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES MAY BE ABLE TO
GENERATE A STORM. ONCE THE STORMS ARE GENERATED...ANY OUTFLOWS THEY
PRODUCE SHOULD PROPAGATE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. USUALLY WITH THIS
TYPE OF SOUNDING OVER THE AREA...THE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED WILL BE
PULSE TYPE STORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. DUE TO THE LACK OF
WIND SHEAR AND LACK OF ANY STRONG BOUNDARIES...TORNADOES ARE VERY
UNLIKELY TODAY AND WOULD PROBABLY NEED SOME INTERSECTING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TO EVEN HAVE A PRAYER OF FORMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THAT
LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN KY. THIS
LED TO SOME CHANGES IN POPS...GENERALLY TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST
DURING THE AM...AND SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PRE FIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 1330Z. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT LOZ AND SME BY 15Z...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST AT JKL AROUND
16Z. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND THUS VCTS AND CB WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211314
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
914 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Precip from the overnight MCS is dissipating over central Kentucky
as we speak. Expect to see a break in the action for the next few
hrs, but we remain in a juicy air mass and a boundary-rich
environment. No changes to the afternoon forecast for scattered
shower/T-storm activity, nor the potential for these storms to pulse
up to marginal SVR levels. Expect to update text and point-and-click
within the next hour, after we give this dissipating trend a little
more time.

&&

.Short Term (Today - Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

Early this morning a long line of showers and thunderstorms
stretched from Michigan to Oklahoma.  This line will weaken
considerably as it pushes to the southeast away from the jet energy
that was supporting it earlier.  Will have likely PoPs in southwest
Indiana before dawn, and just chance PoPs across the area after dawn
as the line continues to fall apart.

We should see a break in the action for several hours before
redevelopment takes place this afternoon.  Widespread clouds and
scattered morning showers will prevent us from destabilizing fully,
but some strong storms could still fire in the warm and juicy
atmosphere. It will be interesting to see where the outflow boundary
from this morning`s convection ends up, as that could serve as a
focus for renewed convection.  As for any severe weather, it looks
like marginally severe hail is the primary threat, with marginally
severe wind gusts a secondary threat.  Tornadoes look unlikely,
though local boundary intersections will need to be watched for the
possibility of a brief spin-up.

We may see another break this evening as afternoon convection
wanes.  Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is then expected
during the late night hours as a low level jet revs up from Memphis
to Fort Wayne.  A strong low level inversion is forecast to set up,
so small hail would be the main threat with any stronger storms.

On Wednesday the cold front that has been producing the rough
weather across the nation`s midsection recently will draw nearer
still to the LMK CWA, reaching the lower Wabash and middle
Mississippi Valleys by evening.  Additional shower and thunderstorm
development can be expected on Wednesday, particularly in the
afternoon.  Once again, widespread morning clouds and scattered
showers will prevent us from destabilizing much.  A few strong
storms will still be possible, though, with marginally severe hail
as the primary threat...marginally severe wind gusts secondary...and
tornadoes unlikely other than where local boundaries meet.

Temperatures are also very challenging given the clouds and rain.
For today will shoot for highs mostly in the middle 80s, though that
may be generous if we don`t get some sun this afternoon.  Muggy lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s once again.  Model data
vary widely on how warm we will get on Wednesday.  For now will go
with highs around 80.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Upper air pattern at 500mb late Wednesday is forecast to become
somewhat amplified with thin ridging across the northern plains
sandwiched between a deep closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a slow moving trough centered over the western Great Lakes. This
Great Lakes trough will deepen, with its base swinging across the
Commonwealth by early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will diminish during the evening hours and overnight as
veering mid-level winds will bring lower PWATs east from Missouri.
PWATs of 1.6 inches earlier Wednesday will diminish to under one
inch by dawn Thursday. Still, will maintain at least a chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorms overnight through Thursday
morning.

By late Thursday, a surface trough will move southeast of the Ohio
River, switching our winds to the northwest and eventually bringing
in substantially cooler air. Despite less available moisture, the
presence of the 500mb trough axis and a diffuse frontal boundary
will not preclude scattered low topped showers and isolated thunder
Thursday afternoon.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build southward along the
Mississippi Valley Friday, sliding east towards Ohio by Sunday
morning. Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will arrive by
Friday morning and continue through the entire weekend. Despite
clearing skies, Friday will stay quite cool and refreshing, with
highs only rising into the lower 70s at best. We can expect several
cool nights from Friday to Monday mornings with lows initially
around 50, rising into the upper 50s by Monday morning. Under mostly
clear skies, highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s.

By late Sunday, a slowly progressive 500mb wave pattern will have
moved the Great Lakes trough eastwards over New England. Ridging
will begin to build across the southern Plains, with northwest flow
developing across the Lower Ohio Valley. Moisture will begin to pool
late Sunday along and north of a warm front expected to develop
along a line from Iowa southeast through northern Kentucky. Will
introduce a chance for isolated to scattered convection late Sunday
and Monday, especially across our northern counties. Humidities will
also rise by Monday as southwesterly surface winds develop.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A complex and, as a result, low confidence forecast.  A storm system
approaching from the Plains will throw unsettled weather at us
throughout the TAF period.

A line of storms is advancing into central Kentucky at 1045Z.  Have
used radar animations to bring this line into the TAF sites over the
next few hours.  The line should be weaker by the time it gets as
far east as the airports, and should be mostly in the form of
showers with isolated TSRA.  SDF stands the best chance at receiving
the most adverse weather from this line.

Once that clears out, we should have several quiet hours from mid
morning through mid afternoon.  The amount of destabilization we`ll
be able to realize this afternoon is in question, given the morning
clouds and showers.  Nevertheless, will forecast scattered
thunderstorm redevelopment during the heat of the day.  Winds may
get a little gusty this afternoon as well...especially if we can get
some decent sunshine.

Another quiet period is expected this evening as the afternoon
convection wanes.  Then, another round of showers and storms should
break out late tonight as the Plains storm system continues its
approach and a low level jet cranks up from Memphis to Toledo.

Needless to say, with all this going on, changes will certainly be
made to the TAFs over the course of the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RAS
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KJKL 211204 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
804 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED BASED ON RECENT OBS AND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CONVECTION WORKING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL KY THAT
LIKELY WILL NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING EASTERN KY. THIS
LED TO SOME CHANGES IN POPS...GENERALLY TO RAISE THEM IN THE WEST
DURING THE AM...AND SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OWB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PREFIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 759 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIAPTE THROUGH 1330Z. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WILL WORK INTO EASTERN KY DURING THE FIRST TWO HOURS OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ISOALTED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT LOZ AND SME BY 15Z...AND POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST AT JKL AROUND
16Z. CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS NOT
EXTREMELY HIGH...BUT CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING MUCH OF
THE PERIOD AND THUS VCTS AND CB WAS USED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 211046
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...



.Short Term (Today - Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

Early this morning a long line of showers and thunderstorms
stretched from Michigan to Oklahoma.  This line will weaken
considerably as it pushes to the southeast away from the jet energy
that was supporting it earlier.  Will have likely PoPs in southwest
Indiana before dawn, and just chance PoPs across the area after dawn
as the line continues to fall apart.

We should see a break in the action for several hours before
redevelopment takes place this afternoon.  Widespread clouds and
scattered morning showers will prevent us from destabilizing fully,
but some strong storms could still fire in the warm and juicy
atmosphere. It will be interesting to see where the outflow boundary
from this morning`s convection ends up, as that could serve as a
focus for renewed convection.  As for any severe weather, it looks
like marginally severe hail is the primary threat, with marginally
severe wind gusts a secondary threat.  Tornadoes look unlikely,
though local boundary intersections will need to be watched for the
possibility of a brief spin-up.

We may see another break this evening as afternoon convection
wanes.  Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is then expected
during the late night hours as a low level jet revs up from Memphis
to Fort Wayne.  A strong low level inversion is forecast to set up,
so small hail would be the main threat with any stronger storms.

On Wednesday the cold front that has been producing the rough
weather across the nation`s midsection recently will draw nearer
still to the LMK CWA, reaching the lower Wabash and middle
Mississippi Valleys by evening.  Additional shower and thunderstorm
development can be expected on Wednesday, particularly in the
afternoon.  Once again, widespread morning clouds and scattered
showers will prevent us from destabilizing much.  A few strong
storms will still be possible, though, with marginally severe hail
as the primary threat...marginally severe wind gusts secondary...and
tornadoes unlikely other than where local boundaries meet.

Temperatures are also very challenging given the clouds and rain.
For today will shoot for highs mostly in the middle 80s, though that
may be generous if we don`t get some sun this afternoon.  Muggy lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s once again.  Model data
vary widely on how warm we will get on Wednesday.  For now will go
with highs around 80.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Upper air pattern at 500mb late Wednesday is forecast to become
somewhat amplified with thin ridging across the northern plains
sandwiched between a deep closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a slow moving trough centered over the western Great Lakes. This
Great Lakes trough will deepen, with its base swinging across the
Commonwealth by early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will diminish during the evening hours and overnight as
veering mid-level winds will bring lower PWATs east from Missouri.
PWATs of 1.6 inches earlier Wednesday will diminish to under one
inch by dawn Thursday. Still, will maintain at least a chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorms overnight through Thursday
morning.

By late Thursday, a surface trough will move southeast of the Ohio
River, switching our winds to the northwest and eventually bringing
in substantially cooler air. Despite less available moisture, the
presence of the 500mb trough axis and a diffuse frontal boundary
will not preclude scattered low topped showers and isolated thunder
Thursday afternoon.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build southward along the
Mississippi Valley Friday, sliding east towards Ohio by Sunday
morning. Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will arrive by
Friday morning and continue through the entire weekend. Despite
clearing skies, Friday will stay quite cool and refreshing, with
highs only rising into the lower 70s at best. We can expect several
cool nights from Friday to Monday mornings with lows initially
around 50, rising into the upper 50s by Monday morning. Under mostly
clear skies, highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s.

By late Sunday, a slowly progressive 500mb wave pattern will have
moved the Great Lakes trough eastwards over New England. Ridging
will begin to build across the southern Plains, with northwest flow
developing across the Lower Ohio Valley. Moisture will begin to pool
late Sunday along and north of a warm front expected to develop
along a line from Iowa southeast through northern Kentucky. Will
introduce a chance for isolated to scattered convection late Sunday
and Monday, especially across our northern counties. Humidities will
also rise by Monday as southwesterly surface winds develop.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A complex and, as a result, low confidence forecast.  A storm system
approaching from the Plains will throw unsettled weather at us
throughout the TAF period.

A line of storms is advancing into central Kentucky at 1045Z.  Have
used radar animations to bring this line into the TAF sites over the
next few hours.  The line should be weaker by the time it gets as
far east as the airports, and should be mostly in the form of
showers with isolated TSRA.  SDF stands the best chance at receiving
the most adverse weather from this line.

Once that clears out, we should have several quiet hours from mid
morning through mid afternoon.  The amount of destabilization we`ll
be able to realize this afternoon is in question, given the morning
clouds and showers.  Nevertheless, will forecast scattered
thunderstorm redevelopment during the heat of the day.  Winds may
get a little gusty this afternoon as well...especially if we can get
some decent sunshine.

Another quiet period is expected this evening as the afternoon
convection wanes.  Then, another round of showers and storms should
break out late tonight as the Plains storm system continues its
approach and a low level jet cranks up from Memphis to Toledo.

Needless to say, with all this going on, changes will certainly be
made to the TAFs over the course of the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KLMK 210958
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
558 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 558 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Raised PoPs for much of the CWA as a line of showers and storms
races eastward from western Kentucky toward southern Indiana and
central Kentucky.  The line is expected to diminish as it moves
east, but our western one or two tiers of counties should still see
widespread convection.  The line has had a history of winds to
nearly 50 mph, though winds are not expected to be that strong by
the time it gets this far east...probably more in the 30 to 40 mph
range along the western LMK CWA border from Jasper to Russellville.

Of most concern is storms along the northern half of the line that
will be moving along the east-west outflow boundaries put out by
showers and storms that came in from the northwest a few hours ago.
At 10Z the east-west boundaries stretched roughly from Frankfort to
Elizabethtown to Owensboro.  Storms riding along those boundaries
will have an increased chance of low level rotation.

&&

.Short Term (Today - Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

Early this morning a long line of showers and thunderstorms
stretched from Michigan to Oklahoma.  This line will weaken
considerably as it pushes to the southeast away from the jet energy
that was supporting it earlier.  Will have likely PoPs in southwest
Indiana before dawn, and just chance PoPs across the area after dawn
as the line continues to fall apart.

We should see a break in the action for several hours before
redevelopment takes place this afternoon.  Widespread clouds and
scattered morning showers will prevent us from destabilizing fully,
but some strong storms could still fire in the warm and juicy
atmosphere. It will be interesting to see where the outflow boundary
from this morning`s convection ends up, as that could serve as a
focus for renewed convection.  As for any severe weather, it looks
like marginally severe hail is the primary threat, with marginally
severe wind gusts a secondary threat.  Tornadoes look unlikely,
though local boundary intersections will need to be watched for the
possibility of a brief spin-up.

We may see another break this evening as afternoon convection
wanes.  Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is then expected
during the late night hours as a low level jet revs up from Memphis
to Fort Wayne.  A strong low level inversion is forecast to set up,
so small hail would be the main threat with any stronger storms.

On Wednesday the cold front that has been producing the rough
weather across the nation`s midsection recently will draw nearer
still to the LMK CWA, reaching the lower Wabash and middle
Mississippi Valleys by evening.  Additional shower and thunderstorm
development can be expected on Wednesday, particularly in the
afternoon.  Once again, widespread morning clouds and scattered
showers will prevent us from destabilizing much.  A few strong
storms will still be possible, though, with marginally severe hail
as the primary threat...marginally severe wind gusts secondary...and
tornadoes unlikely other than where local boundaries meet.

Temperatures are also very challenging given the clouds and rain.
For today will shoot for highs mostly in the middle 80s, though that
may be generous if we don`t get some sun this afternoon.  Muggy lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s once again.  Model data
vary widely on how warm we will get on Wednesday.  For now will go
with highs around 80.

.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Upper air pattern at 500mb late Wednesday is forecast to become
somewhat amplified with thin ridging across the northern plains
sandwiched between a deep closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a slow moving trough centered over the western Great Lakes. This
Great Lakes trough will deepen, with its base swinging across the
Commonwealth by early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will diminish during the evening hours and overnight as
veering mid-level winds will bring lower PWATs east from Missouri.
PWATs of 1.6 inches earlier Wednesday will diminish to under one
inch by dawn Thursday. Still, will maintain at least a chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorms overnight through Thursday
morning.

By late Thursday, a surface trough will move southeast of the Ohio
River, switching our winds to the northwest and eventually bringing
in substantially cooler air. Despite less available moisture, the
presence of the 500mb trough axis and a diffuse frontal boundary
will not preclude scattered low topped showers and isolated thunder
Thursday afternoon.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build southward along the
Mississippi Valley Friday, sliding east towards Ohio by Sunday
morning. Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will arrive by
Friday morning and continue through the entire weekend. Despite
clearing skies, Friday will stay quite cool and refreshing, with
highs only rising into the lower 70s at best. We can expect several
cool nights from Friday to Monday mornings with lows initially
around 50, rising into the upper 50s by Monday morning. Under mostly
clear skies, highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s.

By late Sunday, a slowly progressive 500mb wave pattern will have
moved the Great Lakes trough eastwards over New England. Ridging
will begin to build across the southern Plains, with northwest flow
developing across the Lower Ohio Valley. Moisture will begin to pool
late Sunday along and north of a warm front expected to develop
along a line from Iowa southeast through northern Kentucky. Will
introduce a chance for isolated to scattered convection late Sunday
and Monday, especially across our northern counties. Humidities will
also rise by Monday as southwesterly surface winds develop.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A complex and, as a result, low confidence forecast.  A storm system
approaching from the Plains will throw unsettled weather at us
throughout the TAF period.

Of first concern is the possibility of LLWS early this morning.
Looking at KLVX VWP and surface obs, it looks like there is little
to no directional shear and borderline speed shear, so will leave
LLWS out of the TAFs for now.

A line of storms is advancing across Illinois at 05Z.  Have used
radar animations to bring this line into the TAF sites over the next
several hours.  The line should be weaker by the time it gets this
far east, and should be mostly in the form of showers with isolated
TSRA.

Once that clears out, we should have several quiet hours from mid
morning through mid afternoon.  The amount of destabilization we`ll
be able to realize is in question, given the morning clouds and
showers.  Nevertheless, will forecast scattered thunderstorm
redevelopment during the heat of the day.  Winds may get a little
gusty this afternoon as well...especially if we can get some decent
sunshine.

Another quiet period is expected this evening as the afternoon
convection wanes.  Then, another round of showers and storms should
break out late tonight as the Plains storm system continues its
approach and a low level jet cranks up from Memphis to Fort Wayne.

Needless to say, with all this going on, changes will certainly be
made to the TAFs over the course of the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Mesoscale........13
Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210815 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OWB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.

EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PREFIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLOCKY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH
DETAILS BECOME MORE MURKY BY THIS WEEKEND...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES. AS SUCH...GENERALLY RELIED ON A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...KEEPING GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THREATENING
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF A QUICKER EXIT WITH THIS
FEATURE. INSTABILITY WILL WANE QUICKLY BY LATE IN THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...SO REMOVED THUNDER CHANCES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER QUITE A BIT WITH
THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. THE
ECMWF IS PRETTY TRANSIENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE...AND ALLOWS A WARM
FRONT TO MOVE IN QUICKLY BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY THEN STALLS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER
HERE...AND KEEPS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHUNTED MORE TO THE NORTH.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...DID ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE ECMWF.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH FRIDAY BEING THE COOLEST DAY...AS HIGHS WILL
RETREAT TO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ALREADY LED TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS AND PER OBS THIS MAY BE DENSE IS SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE BIG SANDY/TUG VALLEY REGION ATTM. KI35...K22 AND
KPBX SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE LOWER VIS THROUGH 13Z.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ONLY TAKES LOZ AND SME DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP 16Z AND AFTER...POSSIBLY
SOONER AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA BEFORE 16Z. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME VCTS AND CB FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...PICKING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KPAH 210736
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NEAREST TERM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING CONVECTION/TOR WATCH BOX.
IN GENERAL...THE TREND IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY AS THE
LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. A FEW HEALTHY CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO PULSE...HOWEVER...AND WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WORKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WE`LL ONLY DROP WATCH BOX COUNTIES BEHIND
THE LINE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST...WEAKENING...AND THEN
REFIRING THIS PM/EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS THE
PICTURE. BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A SLGT
RISK OF SVR WILL CONTINUE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PTN OF
THE CWA/ESP SEMO/SWKY/SWIL...INCLUDED IN A LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING
WATCH BOX.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS MO/IL/IN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU
THE AREA. INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH TIME/OVERNIGHT BUT ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY EXTEND THRU THE
NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH AND A HIGH POP/CATEGORICAL MENTION IS
WARRANTED EITHER WAY.

THE UPPER TROF/BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THRU/TO THE EAST OF US THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY EVEN
LINGER THRU THURSAY AS 2NDARY UPPER TROF PASSAGE ALLOWS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY THU NIGHT...WHEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR STARTS TO OVERTAKE THE COLUMN. 80S AND
60S COOL TO 70S AND 50S THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AND REACH JUST SHY OF THE SEASONAL
80 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON
THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THEIR HANDLING OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THUS WITH REGARD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS WELL. BOTH THE GEM AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE
BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE LOCALLY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
ECMWF SEEMS TO SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
WILL MEANDER SOUTH INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY. GIVEN THE RATHER POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND THE PRESENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE...PREFER TO STEER THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
DRIER GFS AT THIS TIME.

WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INITIALIZED GUIDANCE BLEND
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION AT THIS WRITING. GUST FRONTS PRODUCING
WINDS/GUSTS TO 35 KTS PRECEDE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY 30-60
MINUTES WHERE STORM GUSTS MAY LIKEWISE REACH 35 KTS OR BETTER.
EXPECT MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO THEN DETERIORATE TO
MORE MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID MORNING. PM REDEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST
TO LOWEST EAST...WITH RETURN TO MVFR CONDTIONS BY EVENING
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER ROUND HITS TERMINALS/FLIGHT PATHS. IN BOTH
INSTANCES A STRONG STORM MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KPAH 210726
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
226 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

NEAREST TERM IS DEALING WITH REMAINING CONVECTION/TOR WATCH BOX.
IN GENERAL...THE TREND IS DIMINISHING IN STRENGTH/INTENSITY AS THE
LINE SINKS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD. A FEW HEALTHY CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO PULSE...HOWEVER...AND WITH A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WORKING OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WE`LL ONLY DROP WATCH BOX COUNTIES BEHIND
THE LINE.

THE MODELS SHOW THE CONVECTION MOVING EAST...WEAKENING...AND THEN
REFIRING THIS PM/EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET ENTERS THE
PICTURE. BEST LIFT/INSTABILITY WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A SLGT
RISK OF SVR WILL CONTINUE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A PTN OF
THE CWA/ESP SEMO/SWKY/SWIL...INCLUDED IN A LATE DAY-EARLY EVENING
WATCH BOX.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE OPENS UP AND LIFTS ACROSS MO/IL/IN
TONIGHT. THIS WILL DRIVE THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION THRU
THE AREA. INSTABILITY LESSENS WITH TIME/OVERNIGHT BUT ACTIVE
CONVECTION EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY EXTEND THRU THE
NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH AND A HIGH POP/CATEGORICAL MENTION IS
WARRANTED EITHER WAY.

THE UPPER TROF/BEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND DRIVE THE
SYSTEM THRU/TO THE EAST OF US THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT. POPS MAY EVEN
LINGER THRU THURSAY AS 2NDARY UPPER TROF PASSAGE ALLOWS SOME
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY NRN/ERN
PTNS FA. THE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY THU NIGHT...WHEN
PLEASANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR STARTS TO OVERTAKE THE COLUMN. 80S AND
60S COOL TO 70S AND 50S THEREAFTER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE
LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ACTIVE ONGOING CONVECTION AT THIS WRITING. GUST FRONTS PRODUCING
WINDS/GUSTS TO 35 KTS PRECEDE MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY 30-60
MINUTES WHERE STORM GUSTS MAY LIKEWISE REACH 35 KTS OR BETTER.
EXPECT MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY NEXT 2-3 HOURS TO THEN DETERIORATE TO
MORE MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO
VFR BY MID MORNING. PM REDEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS WEST
TO LOWEST EAST...WITH RETURN TO MVFR CONDTIONS BY EVENING
EXPECTED AS ANOTHER ROUND HITS TERMINALS/FLIGHT PATHS. IN BOTH
INSTANCES A STRONG STORM MAY PRODUCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS ALBEIT SHORT-
LIVED.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WORKING TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WORKING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED
NEAR THE SD/MN BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PREFRONTAL CONVECTION HAS
WEAKENED BUT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO HE LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION...NORTH OF THE OWB AND PAH AREA AND THEN CONTINUES
SOUTH GENERALLY ALONG THE MS RIVER AND THEN WEST INTO EAST CENTRAL
AR. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS CONVECTION HAS OUTFLOWED WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IN DOWN TO NEAR THE EVV VICINITY. LOCALLY
ACROSS EASTERN KY 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS NEAR
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND IN SW VA AND VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG
SANDY REGION. SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS SI ALSO PASSING OVERHEAD.


EARLY THIS MORNING...VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND BECOME DENSE
IN SOME AREAS BEFORE DAWN...DESPITE SOME PASSING CIRRUS. COVERAGE OF
THIS SHOULD BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT
EXPERIENCED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 24 HORUS. A PREFIRST PERIOD
WILL BE USED TO COVER THIS.

THE 4Z HRRR AND 0Z NAM GENERALLY SEEM TO BRING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO EASTERN KY IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION ALONG
WITH WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE. THE 0Z NAM AND
0Z GFS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON INSTABILITY FROM MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. THE 0Z NAM FORECASTS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MIDLEVEL DRY
AIR AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALOFT AS COMPARED TO THE 0Z GFS WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE TAME. THE 0Z NAM LIKELY MOISTENS UP THE BOUNDARY LAYER A
TAD TOO MUCH LEADING TO DEWPOINTS NEARING 70 AND RESULTING IN TOTAL
TOTALS OVER 50...CAPE OVER 50 AND LI OF -9C OR LOWER. REALITY WOULD
PROBABLY BE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...MORE ON THE ORDER OF CAPE IN THE
2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE AND LI -4C TO -6C OR SO AND 21Z SREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF CAPE GREATER THAN 2000 J/KG AND LI LESS THAN -4C.
THIS WOULD STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STRONGER STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
LOCALLY SEVERE STORM WITH HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WERE TO BE
ANY CELL MERGERS. A ONE OR TWO HOUR DIFFERENCE IN CU DEVELOPMENT AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T TODAY. HOWEVER...IT STILL
APPEARS THAT MAX T WILL BE CLOSE TO BREAKING THE RECORD FOR TODAY AT
JKL AND POSSIBLY COME CLOSE AT LOZ.

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY AFTER 0Z AS THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT/MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF TONIGHT. IF CLEARING TAKES PLACE...VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BECOME DENSE...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY CONVECTION OCCURS LATER
TODAY. ATTM...WE PLAN NOT MENTION DENSE FOG JUST PATCHY FOG TO AREAS
OF FOG.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE WITH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
GENERALLY TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST. SOME DEGREE OF DEBRIS CLOUDS
MAY WORK ACROSS THE AREA ON WED...BUT MODERATE 0Z MODELS AND 21Z
FORECAST MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MORE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR AS
COMPARED TO TODAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STRENGTHENING OF CONVECTION AS
IT MOVES INTO EASTERN KY AND PROBABLY AN UPTICK IN COVERAGE AS WELL.
ONE OR MORE LINES OF STORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS ON WED...THOUGH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL COULD OCCUR AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIKELY POPS
WERE CONTINUED FOR WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL DETERMINE MAX T ON WED...BUT
EASTERN LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE THIS OCCUR THE LATEST AND SHOULD AVERAGE
WARMER THAN MORE CENTRAL AND WESTERN LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ALREADY LED TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS AND PER OBS THIS MAY BE DENSE IS SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE BIG SANDY/TUG VALLEY REGION ATTM. KI35...K22 AND
KPBX SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE LOWER VIS THROUGH 13Z.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ONLY TAKES LOZ AND SME DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP 16Z AND AFTER...POSSIBLY
SOONER AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA BEFORE 16Z. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME VCTS AND CB FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...PICKING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 210654
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
253 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.Short Term (Today - Wednesday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A difficult and complicated forecast as a storm system approaches
from the Plains...

Early this morning a long line of showers and thunderstorms
stretched from Michigan to Oklahoma.  This line will weaken
considerably as it pushes to the southeast away from the jet energy
that was supporting it earlier.  Will have likely PoPs in southwest
Indiana before dawn, and just chance PoPs across the area after dawn
as the line continues to fall apart.

We should see a break in the action for several hours before
redevelopment takes place this afternoon.  Widespread clouds and
scattered morning showers will prevent us from destabilizing fully,
but some strong storms could still fire in the warm and juicy
atmosphere. It will be interesting to see where the outflow boundary
from this morning`s convection ends up, as that could serve as a
focus for renewed convection.  As for any severe weather, it looks
like marginally severe hail is the primary threat, with marginally
severe wind gusts a secondary threat.  Tornadoes look unlikely,
though local boundary intersections will need to be watched for the
possibility of a brief spin-up.

We may see another break this evening as afternoon convection
wanes.  Renewed shower and thunderstorm activity is then expected
during the late night hours as a low level jet revs up from Memphis
to Fort Wayne.  A strong low level inversion is forecast to set up,
so small hail would be the main threat with any stronger storms.

On Wednesday the cold front that has been producing the rough
weather across the nation`s midsection recently will draw nearer
still to the LMK CWA, reaching the lower Wabash and middle
Mississippi Valleys by evening.  Additional shower and thunderstorm
development can be expected on Wednesday, particularly in the
afternoon.  Once again, widespread morning clouds and scattered
showers will prevent us from destabilizing much.  A few strong
storms will still be possible, though, with marginally severe hail
as the primary threat...marginally severe wind gusts secondary...and
tornadoes unlikely other than where local boundaries meet.

Temperatures are also very challenging given the clouds and rain.
For today will shoot for highs mostly in the middle 80s, though that
may be generous if we don`t get some sun this afternoon.  Muggy lows
tonight will be in the middle and upper 60s once again.  Model data
vary widely on how warm we will get on Wednesday.  For now will go
with highs around 80.


.Long Term (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

Upper air pattern at 500mb late Wednesday is forecast to become
somewhat amplified with thin ridging across the northern plains
sandwiched between a deep closed low off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a slow moving trough centered over the western Great Lakes. This
Great Lakes trough will deepen, with its base swinging across the
Commonwealth by early Friday morning. Showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday will diminish during the evening hours and overnight as
veering mid-level winds will bring lower PWATs east from Missouri.
PWATs of 1.6 inches earlier Wednesday will diminish to under one
inch by dawn Thursday. Still, will maintain at least a chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorms overnight through Thursday
morning.

By late Thursday, a surface trough will move southeast of the Ohio
River, switching our winds to the northwest and eventually bringing
in substantially cooler air. Despite less available moisture, the
presence of the 500mb trough axis and a diffuse frontal boundary
will not preclude scattered low topped showers and isolated thunder
Thursday afternoon.

High pressure of Canadian origin will build southward along the
Mississippi Valley Friday, sliding east towards Ohio by Sunday
morning. Distinctly cooler air with low dewpoints will arrive by
Friday morning and continue through the entire weekend. Despite
clearing skies, Friday will stay quite cool and refreshing, with
highs only rising into the lower 70s at best. We can expect several
cool nights from Friday to Monday mornings with lows initially
around 50, rising into the upper 50s by Monday morning. Under mostly
clear skies, highs Saturday and Sunday will remain in the 70s.

By late Sunday, a slowly progressive 500mb wave pattern will have
moved the Great Lakes trough eastwards over New England. Ridging
will begin to build across the southern plains, with northwest flow
developing across the Lower Ohio Valley. Moisture will begin to pool
late Sunday along and north of a warm front expected to develop
along a line from Iowa southeast through northern Kentucky. Will
introduce a chance for isolated to scattered convection late Sunday
and Monday, especially across our northern counties. Humidities will
also rise by Monday as southwesterly surface winds develop.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A complex and, as a result, low confidence forecast.  A storm system
approaching from the Plains will throw unsettled weather at us
throughout the TAF period.

Of first concern is the possibility of LLWS early this morning.
Looking at KLVX VWP and surface obs, it looks like there is little
to no directional shear and borderline speed shear, so will leave
LLWS out of the TAFs for now.

A line of storms is advancing across Illinois at 05Z.  Have used
radar animations to bring this line into the TAF sites over the next
several hours.  The line should be weaker by the time it gets this
far east, and should be mostly in the form of showers with isolated
TSRA.

Once that clears out, we should have several quiet hours from mid
morning through mid afternoon.  The amount of destabilization we`ll
be able to realize is in question, given the morning clouds and
showers.  Nevertheless, will forecast scattered thunderstorm
redevelopment during the heat of the day.  Winds may get a little
gusty this afternoon as well...especially if we can get some decent
sunshine.

Another quiet period is expected this evening as the afternoon
convection wanes.  Then, another round of showers and storms should
break out late tonight as the Plains storm system continues its
approach and a low level jet cranks up from Memphis to Fort Wayne.

Needless to say, with all this going on, changes will certainly be
made to the TAFs over the course of the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......13
Long Term........JSD
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210613 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. 11-3.9 IMAGERY INDICATES WHAT APPEARS TO BE RATHER
EXTENSIVE FOG OVER THE BIG SANDY REGION AND SOME PATCHY STRATOCU
WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CUMBERLAND MOUNTAINS NEAR THE TN/VA/KY
BORDER AREA. SKY COVER WAS FRESHENED UP A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
BAND TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...SOME DEBRIS CIRRUS FROM STRONGER STORMS OVER THE MIDWEST
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A DEADLY
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FOUND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE
LOW/S COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT AFTER
SPAWNING A HORRIBLY DESTRUCTIVE AND KILLER TORNADO IN THE MOORE
OKLAHOMA AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EAST KENTUCKY...A MILD AND SLIGHTLY
MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS. CLEAR
SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN ALONG
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK SO
HAVE SIMPLY MATCHED UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...INCLUDING
SATELLITE...WITH THIS UPDATE...ON ITS WAY TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
INCLUDED LOWERING POPS TO NEAR NIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALSO TAKING
SKY COVER DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. DID FINE TUNE THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS
WELL...ENHANCING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET LATER TONIGHT...
AS WELL. THIS IS IN THE GRIDS...THE ZONES...AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE BOTH
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH WRAP AROUND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE NEW FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MODELS THEN ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL OR SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THIS BOUNDARY AS A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE THINKING
IS FOR ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
INCREASE SOME NEXT MONDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING ILL DEFINED
AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WENT WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS...20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAVE ALREADY LED TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN THE VALLEYS AND PER OBS THIS MAY BE DENSE IS SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE BIG SANDY/TUG VALLEY REGION ATTM. KI35...K22 AND
KPBX SHOULD EXPERIENCE SOME OF THE LOWER VIS THROUGH 13Z.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE ONLY TAKES LOZ AND SME DOWN TO MVFR AROUND 9Z.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP 16Z AND AFTER...POSSIBLY
SOONER AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE
AREA BEFORE 16Z. WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH SOME VCTS AND CB FOR THIS IN
THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...PICKING
UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 13Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP

000
FXUS63 KLMK 210518
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Low-level debris clouds from convection across the Middle
Mississippi Valley overspread the Lower Ohio Valley early this
morning. This caused a slow warming trend through this afternoon.
However, clouds are breaking up with breezy south-southwest winds
aiding in mixing. Still some time for warming, with mid and upper
80s being common. Louisville could still make a run at 90, but
believe the record of 91 (1934) will remain. Latest guidance and
aircraft soundings continue to illustrate the ridge aloft has us
under a cap. A very thin line of light rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms has developed across eastern Illinois. This will have
a tough time reaching us this afternoon, but could skirt our
northern most counties this evening if it holds together. How much
the cap weakens between now and then will be the determining factor.
The best chance will be farther north in Indiana, where the cap is
weaker.

Heading into tonight and Tuesday, the upper-level ridge over our
area will break down as the central CONUS trough axis moves into the
eastern Plains and upper Midwest, where convection is expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. This upstream convection should
progress eastward into the Ohio Valley late tonight. Latest guidance
indicates this activity should approach the forecast area in a
weakening state during the pre-dawn hours. However, westerlies are
increasing and the ridge aloft will be weakening, so some storms may
hold on. This convection should wane early Tuesday, but will leave
plenty of mesoscale boundaries around the region.

Additional development is expected in the afternoon and evening hours
Tuesday, to our west along a frontal boundary and over our area with
the remnant mesoscale boundaries. SPC has placed areas along and
west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line in a slight risk. With
increasing 0-6km bulk shear of around 25-35 knots and strongly
unstable airmass, multicell clusters would be the convective mode.
Heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning, along with isolated
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. So, severe
storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convection
will push east and weaken in strength, but some models are
indicating another round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
night. Will not get too fancy with the PoP forecast given great
uncertainty among models with timing of these events.

As for temperatures, we will remain rather mild tonight, with temps
ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs Tuesday will be
cooler with the potential outflow/convection in the morning, debris
clouds, and the ridge axis having shifted east. Middle to upper 80s
and humid conditions are on tap. Temperatures Tuesday night should
remain mild, as temperatures drop into the middle and upper 60s.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Unsettled weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, in association
with a slow and complex frontal passage. The best chances for precip
and the strongest storms will be on Wednesday, with a deep
southwesterly moisture feed across the Ohio Valley. Not too excited
about SVR potential as instability will be the limiting factor and
our best guess is that precip will already be ongoing at daybreak.
Still, it merits likely POPs through the day on Wednesday.

Much lower POPs on Wednesday night as the deep moisture will be
shunted to our south and east. Will see high-end chance POPs again
on Thursday as the positively-tilted upper trough swings through the
Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, and decent low-level moisture
remains in place. Best rain chances will be over the Bluegrass,
closer to the more favorable dynamics. This activity will be
shallower and less intense than any storms we see on Wednesday.
Temps through Thursday will be near normal by day, and a few degrees
above normal by night due to a moist air mass and abundant cloud
cover.

Upper trough axis will slip to our east by Thursday evening, opening
the door for a very mild area of Canadian high pressure.
Picture-postcard weather is on tap for Friday and Saturday with
plenty of sunshine, temps a few degrees below normal, and low
humidity.

Temps will recover to near normal during the latter half of the
holiday weekend. However there is some question as to where a
backdoor front will set up, and how efficiently that will focus
precip. Therefore will include a slight chance of showers and storms
from Saturday night onward.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013

A complex and, as a result, low confidence forecast.  A storm system
approaching from the Plains will throw unsettled weather at us
throughout the TAF period.

Of first concern is the possibility of LLWS early this morning.
Looking at KLVX VWP and surface obs, it looks like there is little
to no directional shear and borderline speed shear, so will leave
LLWS out of the TAFs for now.

A line of storms is advancing across Illinois at 05Z.  Have used
radar animations to bring this line into the TAF sites over the next
several hours.  The line should be weaker by the time it gets this
far east, and should be mostly in the form of showers with isolated
TSRA.

Once that clears out, we should have several quiet hours from mid
morning through mid afternoon.  The amount of destabilization we`ll
be able to realize is in question, given the morning clouds and
showers.  Nevertheless, will forecast scattered thunderstorm
redevelopment during the heat of the day.  Winds may get a little
gusty this afternoon as well...especially if we can get some decent
sunshine.

Another quiet period is expected this evening as the afternoon
convection wanes.  Then, another round of showers and storms should
break out late tonight as the Plains storm system continues its
approach and a low level jet cranks up from Memphis to Fort Wayne.

Needless to say, with all this going on, changes will certainly be
made to the TAFs over the course of the day.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........13

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

02Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE A DEADLY
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS FOUND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. THE
LOW/S COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE MOMENT AFTER
SPAWNING A HORRIBLY DESTRUCTIVE AND KILLER TORNADO IN THE MOORE
OKLAHOMA AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FOR EAST KENTUCKY...A MILD AND SLIGHTLY
MUGGY NIGHT CAN BE ANTICIPATED BETWEEN THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS. CLEAR
SKIES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN ALONG
WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SMALL TO MODERATE RIDGE AND VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK SO
HAVE SIMPLY MATCHED UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...INCLUDING
SATELLITE...WITH THIS UPDATE...ON ITS WAY TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
INCLUDED LOWERING POPS TO NEAR NIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALSO TAKING
SKY COVER DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. DID FINE TUNE THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS
WELL...ENHANCING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET LATER TONIGHT...
AS WELL. THIS IS IN THE GRIDS...THE ZONES...AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE BOTH
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH WRAP AROUND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE NEW FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MODELS THEN ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL OR SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THIS BOUNDARY AS A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE THINKING
IS FOR ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
INCREASE SOME NEXT MONDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING ILL DEFINED
AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WENT WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS...20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND THAT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN THE VALLEYS...TOWARD
DAWN. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE LOZ AND SME TAF SITES WITH
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...HAVE ADDED VCTS
AND CB FOR THIS TO ALL THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO
10 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 210154
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
954 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

The ongoing line of thunderstorms stretching from IL to TX will
continue to move east overnight. The latest models have the remnants
of this system moving into the forecast after 06Z tonight and most
of them have th bulk of the storms moving in after 09Z. Have
therefore pushed back the precipitation chances in the forecast
until after 06Z. The line is expected to weaken as it moves into the
forecast area. However, some strong storms will still be a
possibility early tomorrow morning, particularly across southern
Indiana. An isolated severe thunderstorm or two may be possible
across our farthest northwest counties. The threats with any strong
to severe storms still look to be hail and gusty winds.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Low-level debris clouds from convection across the Middle
Mississippi Valley overspread the Lower Ohio Valley early this
morning. This caused a slow warming trend through this afternoon.
However, clouds are breaking up with breezy south-southwest winds
aiding in mixing. Still some time for warming, with mid and upper
80s being common. Louisville could still make a run at 90, but
believe the record of 91 (1934) will remain. Latest guidance and
aircraft soundings continue to illustrate the ridge aloft has us
under a cap. A very thin line of light rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms has developed across eastern Illinois. This will have
a tough time reaching us this afternoon, but could skirt our
northern most counties this evening if it holds together. How much
the cap weakens between now and then will be the determining factor.
The best chance will be farther north in Indiana, where the cap is
weaker.

Heading into tonight and Tuesday, the upper-level ridge over our
area will break down as the central CONUS trough axis moves into the
eastern Plains and upper Midwest, where convection is expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. This upstream convection should
progress eastward into the Ohio Valley late tonight. Latest guidance
indicates this activity should approach the forecast area in a
weakening state during the pre-dawn hours. However, westerlies are
increasing and the ridge aloft will be weakening, so some storms may
hold on. This convection should wane early Tuesday, but will leave
plenty of mesoscale boundaries around the region.

Additional development is expected in the afternoon and evening hours
Tuesday, to our west along a frontal boundary and over our area with
the remnant mesoscale boundaries. SPC has placed areas along and
west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line in a slight risk. With
increasing 0-6km bulk shear of around 25-35 knots and strongly
unstable airmass, multicell clusters would be the convective mode.
Heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning, along with isolated
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. So, severe
storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convection
will push east and weaken in strength, but some models are
indicating another round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
night. Will not get too fancy with the PoP forecast given great
uncertainty among models with timing of these events.

As for temperatures, we will remain rather mild tonight, with temps
ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs Tuesday will be
cooler with the potential outflow/convection in the morning, debris
clouds, and the ridge axis having shifted east. Middle to upper 80s
and humid conditions are on tap. Temperatures Tuesday night should
remain mild, as temperatures drop into the middle and upper 60s.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Unsettled weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, in association
with a slow and complex frontal passage. The best chances for precip
and the strongest storms will be on Wednesday, with a deep
southwesterly moisture feed across the Ohio Valley. Not too excited
about SVR potential as instability will be the limiting factor and
our best guess is that precip will already be ongoing at daybreak.
Still, it merits likely POPs through the day on Wednesday.

Much lower POPs on Wednesday night as the deep moisture will be
shunted to our south and east. Will see high-end chance POPs again
on Thursday as the positively-tilted upper trough swings through the
Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, and decent low-level moisture
remains in place. Best rain chances will be over the Bluegrass,
closer to the more favorable dynamics. This activity will be
shallower and less intense than any storms we see on Wednesday.
Temps through Thursday will be near normal by day, and a few degrees
above normal by night due to a moist air mass and abundant cloud
cover.

Upper trough axis will slip to our east by Thursday evening, opening
the door for a very mild area of Canadian high pressure.
Picture-postcard weather is on tap for Friday and Saturday with
plenty of sunshine, temps a few degrees below normal, and low
humidity.

Temps will recover to near normal during the latter half of the
holiday weekend. However there is some question as to where a
backdoor front will set up, and how efficiently that will focus
precip. Therefore will include a slight chance of showers and storms
from Saturday night onward.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

The main TAF concerns for this forecast period will be marginal LLWS
overnight tonight and then timing of convection for tomorrow.  A
potent low pressure system over the Plains states will continue to
make slow progress eastward toward the Midwest through tomorrow.
Ahead of this system, a 30-35 kt LLJ will get going tonight.
However, according to model soundings, the atmosphere should stay
mixy with sfc winds staying in the 7-11 kt range overnight and no
real good inversion becoming established.  Therefore, decided to
leave LLWS out of the TAFs at this point.

For tomorrow, waves of convection are expected to push through the
TAF sites.  According to the latest high-res model data, the first
wave should occur during the mid morning to early afternoon hours
with a second wave occurring during the evening hours.  Have tried
to indicate these 2 different waves especially in the longer SDF
TAF, but timing will likely need to be adjusted.  The strength of
these waves is in question as well.  We`ll likely see a broken line
of showers and t-storms during the first round tomorrow
morning/early afternoon, but just how intense this first wave will
be is still unknown.  Will need to monitor trends overnight as
convection heads this way.  Have remained on the conservative side
in the TAFs right now with VFR conditions, VCTS, and wind gusts
around 20 kts.  Look for further refinements to t-storm timing and
strength in coming TAF packages.

Sfc winds will generally remain out of the SSE this evening and then
shift to SSW during the early morning hours.  Wind gusts of 18-22
kts will be possible outside of any t-storm tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........EER
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........AMS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 210010 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
810 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

UPDATED THE GRIDS MAINLY TO REFLECT THE CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THIS
INCLUDED LOWERING POPS TO NEAR NIL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALSO TAKING
SKY COVER DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. DID FINE TUNE THE LOW TEMPS TONIGHT AS
WELL...ENHANCING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET LATER TONIGHT...
AS WELL. THIS IS IN THE GRIDS...THE ZONES...AND HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
HWO. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE BOTH
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH WRAP AROUND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE NEW FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MODELS THEN ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL OR SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THIS BOUNDARY AS A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE THINKING
IS FOR ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
INCREASE SOME NEXT MONDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING ILL DEFINED
AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WENT WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS...20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY AND THAT
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE IN THE VALLEYS...TOWARD
DAWN. THIS SHOULD PRIMARILY AFFECT THE LOZ AND SME TAF SITES WITH
CONDITIONS AS LOW AS IFR NEAR SUNRISE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY...HAVE ADDED VCTS
AND CB FOR THIS TO ALL THE TAFS. WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO
10 KTS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY...TUESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF

000
FXUS63 KLMK 202325
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
724 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Low-level debris clouds from convection across the Middle
Mississippi Valley overspread the Lower Ohio Valley early this
morning. This caused a slow warming trend through this afternoon.
However, clouds are breaking up with breezy south-southwest winds
aiding in mixing. Still some time for warming, with mid and upper
80s being common. Louisville could still make a run at 90, but
believe the record of 91 (1934) will remain. Latest guidance and
aircraft soundings continue to illustrate the ridge aloft has us
under a cap. A very thin line of light rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms has developed across eastern Illinois. This will have
a tough time reaching us this afternoon, but could skirt our
northern most counties this evening if it holds together. How much
the cap weakens between now and then will be the determining factor.
The best chance will be farther north in Indiana, where the cap is
weaker.

Heading into tonight and Tuesday, the upper-level ridge over our
area will break down as the central CONUS trough axis moves into the
eastern Plains and upper Midwest, where convection is expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. This upstream convection should
progress eastward into the Ohio Valley late tonight. Latest guidance
indicates this activity should approach the forecast area in a
weakening state during the pre-dawn hours. However, westerlies are
increasing and the ridge aloft will be weakening, so some storms may
hold on. This convection should wane early Tuesday, but will leave
plenty of mesoscale boundaries around the region.

Additional development is expected in the afternoon and evening hours
Tuesday, to our west along a frontal boundary and over our area with
the remnant mesoscale boundaries. SPC has placed areas along and
west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line in a slight risk. With
increasing 0-6km bulk shear of around 25-35 knots and strongly
unstable airmass, multicell clusters would be the convective mode.
Heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning, along with isolated
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. So, severe
storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convection
will push east and weaken in strength, but some models are
indicating another round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
night. Will not get too fancy with the PoP forecast given great
uncertainty among models with timing of these events.

As for temperatures, we will remain rather mild tonight, with temps
ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs Tuesday will be
cooler with the potential outflow/convection in the morning, debris
clouds, and the ridge axis having shifted east. Middle to upper 80s
and humid conditions are on tap. Temperatures Tuesday night should
remain mild, as temperatures drop into the middle and upper 60s.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Unsettled weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, in association
with a slow and complex frontal passage. The best chances for precip
and the strongest storms will be on Wednesday, with a deep
southwesterly moisture feed across the Ohio Valley. Not too excited
about SVR potential as instability will be the limiting factor and
our best guess is that precip will already be ongoing at daybreak.
Still, it merits likely POPs through the day on Wednesday.

Much lower POPs on Wednesday night as the deep moisture will be
shunted to our south and east. Will see high-end chance POPs again
on Thursday as the positively-tilted upper trough swings through the
Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, and decent low-level moisture
remains in place. Best rain chances will be over the Bluegrass,
closer to the more favorable dynamics. This activity will be
shallower and less intense than any storms we see on Wednesday.
Temps through Thursday will be near normal by day, and a few degrees
above normal by night due to a moist air mass and abundant cloud
cover.

Upper trough axis will slip to our east by Thursday evening, opening
the door for a very mild area of Canadian high pressure.
Picture-postcard weather is on tap for Friday and Saturday with
plenty of sunshine, temps a few degrees below normal, and low
humidity.

Temps will recover to near normal during the latter half of the
holiday weekend. However there is some question as to where a
backdoor front will set up, and how efficiently that will focus
precip. Therefore will include a slight chance of showers and storms
from Saturday night onward.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

The main TAF concerns for this forecast period will be marginal LLWS
overnight tonight and then timing of convection for tomorrow.  A
potent low pressure system over the Plains states will continue to
make slow progress eastward toward the Midwest through tomorrow.
Ahead of this system, a 30-35 kt LLJ will get going tonight.
However, according to model soundings, the atmosphere should stay
mixy with sfc winds staying in the 7-11 kt range overnight and no
real good inversion becoming established.  Therefore, decided to
leave LLWS out of the TAFs at this point.

For tomorrow, waves of convection are expected to push through the
TAF sites.  According to the latest high-res model data, the first
wave should occur during the mid morning to early afternoon hours
with a second wave occurring during the evening hours.  Have tried
to indicate these 2 different waves especially in the longer SDF
TAF, but timing will likely need to be adjusted.  The strength of
these waves is in question as well.  We`ll likely see a broken line
of showers and t-storms during the first round tomorrow
morning/early afternoon, but just how intense this first wave will
be is still unknown.  Will need to monitor trends overnight as
convection heads this way.  Have remained on the conservative side
in the TAFs right now with VFR conditions, VCTS, and wind gusts
around 20 kts.  Look for further refinements to t-storm timing and
strength in coming TAF packages.

Sfc winds will generally remain out of the SSE this evening and then
shift to SSW during the early morning hours.  Wind gusts of 18-22
kts will be possible outside of any t-storm tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........AMS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 202321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AIRMASS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AT
THIS TIME SO JUST CU...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SHOULD BE A LULL...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER
SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

MOST OF THE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY UP A LITTLE MORE THAN THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...AVERAGING AROUND 10 KNOTS. THE MAIN CONCERN IS
THE TIMING OF STORMS ACROSS MISSOURI EARLY THIS EVENING. BASED ON
CONVECTION ALLOWING COMPUTER MODELS...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
THESE STORMS TO REACH THE TAF SITES WOULD BE 06Z TO 10Z. THE STORMS
SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME GUSTY WINDS...SINCE THEY WILL MIX DOWN
STRONGER WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE 4000 FOOT LEVEL. ONCE THE
STORMS PASS...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN RESIDUAL FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING. PROBABILITY OF STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CN/KES
AVIATION...MY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Low-level debris clouds from convection across the Middle
Mississippi Valley overspread the Lower Ohio Valley early this
morning. This caused a slow warming trend through this afternoon.
However, clouds are breaking up with breezy south-southwest winds
aiding in mixing. Still some time for warming, with mid and upper
80s being common. Louisville could still make a run at 90, but
believe the record of 91 (1934) will remain. Latest guidance and
aircraft soundings continue to illustrate the ridge aloft has us
under a cap. A very thin line of light rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms has developed across eastern Illinois. This will have
a tough time reaching us this afternoon, but could skirt our
northern most counties this evening if it holds together. How much
the cap weakens between now and then will be the determining factor.
The best chance will be farther north in Indiana, where the cap is
weaker.

Heading into tonight and Tuesday, the upper-level ridge over our
area will break down as the central CONUS trough axis moves into the
eastern Plains and upper Midwest, where convection is expected to
develop this afternoon and evening. This upstream convection should
progress eastward into the Ohio Valley late tonight. Latest guidance
indicates this activity should approach the forecast area in a
weakening state during the pre-dawn hours. However, westerlies are
increasing and the ridge aloft will be weakening, so some storms may
hold on. This convection should wane early Tuesday, but will leave
plenty of mesoscale boundaries around the region.

Additional development is expected in the afternoon and evening hours
Tuesday, to our west along a frontal boundary and over our area with
the remnant mesoscale boundaries. SPC has placed areas along and
west of a Bowling Green to Frankfort line in a slight risk. With
increasing 0-6km bulk shear of around 25-35 knots and strongly
unstable airmass, multicell clusters would be the convective mode.
Heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning, along with isolated
large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. So, severe
storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convection
will push east and weaken in strength, but some models are
indicating another round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday
night. Will not get too fancy with the PoP forecast given great
uncertainty among models with timing of these events.

As for temperatures, we will remain rather mild tonight, with temps
ranging from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs Tuesday will be
cooler with the potential outflow/convection in the morning, debris
clouds, and the ridge axis having shifted east. Middle to upper 80s
and humid conditions are on tap. Temperatures Tuesday night should
remain mild, as temperatures drop into the middle and upper 60s.

.Long Term (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Unsettled weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, in association
with a slow and complex frontal passage. The best chances for precip
and the strongest storms will be on Wednesday, with a deep
southwesterly moisture feed across the Ohio Valley. Not too excited
about SVR potential as instability will be the limiting factor and
our best guess is that precip will already be ongoing at daybreak.
Still, it merits likely POPs through the day on Wednesday.

Much lower POPs on Wednesday night as the deep moisture will be
shunted to our south and east. Will see high-end chance POPs again
on Thursday as the positively-tilted upper trough swings through the
Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley, and decent low-level moisture
remains in place. Best rain chances will be over the Bluegrass,
closer to the more favorable dynamics. This activity will be
shallower and less intense than any storms we see on Wednesday.
Temps through Thursday will be near normal by day, and a few degrees
above normal by night due to a moist air mass and abundant cloud
cover.

Upper trough axis will slip to our east by Thursday evening, opening
the door for a very mild area of Canadian high pressure.
Picture-postcard weather is on tap for Friday and Saturday with
plenty of sunshine, temps a few degrees below normal, and low
humidity.

Temps will recover to near normal during the latter half of the
holiday weekend. However there is some question as to where a
backdoor front will set up, and how efficiently that will focus
precip. Therefore will include a slight chance of showers and storms
from Saturday night onward.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Morning low-level debris clouds should give way to VFR conditions
this afternoon and evening as south-southwest winds help mix the
lower atmosphere and an upper-level ridge of high pressure holds
overhead. Expect a few Cu around 2-4 K feet and some upper level
clouds. Southerly winds will increase to between 10 and 15 mph by
late morning with a few gusts up around 20 mph. Scattered showers
and storms may move into southern Indiana late tonight, in a
weakening state. These appear to approach SDF in the pre-dawn hours.
Not sure what form they will possess, given the weakening. With low
confidence and differences between the latest suite of guidance,
will not mention in the SDF TAF at this time. Another concern is
marginal LLWS at SDF and BWG around 09-13Z. There is a decent
inversion at low levels, but if outflow moves in during this time,
LLWS will be void. Given the uncertainty and marginal status, will
not mention in the TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........RAS
Aviation.........MJP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 201900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE BOTH
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH WRAP AROUND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE NEW FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MODELS THEN ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL OR SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THIS BOUNDARY AS A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE THINKING
IS FOR ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
INCREASE SOME NEXT MONDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING ILL DEFINED
AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WENT WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS...20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU AND SC IS ACROSS THE AREA. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
QUITE VARIABLE RANGING FROM SCT TO OVC...WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 3K FEET TO AROUND 5K FEET. CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS ALSO SCATTERING
OUT LATE. AS SUCH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH
LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBH

000
FXUS63 KJKL 201847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
247 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERIOD SHOULD BEGIN RATHER ACTIVE AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW INITIALLY
OVER THE PLAINS/MO VALLEY REGION AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING TO
ITS SOUTH APPROACHES THE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TUE
NIGHT INTO EARLY ON WED. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD DEEPEN A BIT
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUE NIGHT INTO
WED. A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD TRANSPORT RATHER ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION WITH PW FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WORKING ACROSS EASTERN KY LATER ON WED INTO WED NIGHT. MODELS BRING
SOME INCREASING WINDS ALOFT INTO THE AREA AT THAT POINT...THOUGH THE
STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
WORK SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST REACHING THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION AND
MID ATLANTIC STATES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...THE LOW WILL
TRACK INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WED NIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSING
EASTERN KY ON THU.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A LULL IN CONVECTION FOR A TIME ON TUE NIGHT
BETWEEN RATHER DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONFECTION FROM TUE AND RESURGENCE
LIKELY TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LATE TUE NIGHT. MODEL FORECAST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG WITH TIMING OF MODELS BRINGING PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION INTO EASTERN KY POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THOUGH THE NORTH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET CORE AS HIGHLIGHTED BY
SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SOME OF
THE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED FOR WED IN THE HWO.
LIKELY POPS WERE USED FOR WED IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND
MOS GUIDANCE. THE MAV NUMBERS CONTINUE TO APPEAR TOO WARM UNLESS
THERE ENDS UP BEING LITTLE CLOUD COVER ON WED AND HIGH TEMPS WERE
TRENDED LOWER TOWARD MODEL CONSENSUS/MET GUIDANCE.

POPS WERE CONTINUED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY INTO FRI AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM GRADUALLY WORKS ACROSS THE REGION. THE EXTENDED MODELS
APPEAR TO BE A IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THU INTO FRI.
HOWEVER...LATER IN THE PERIOD THE GFS MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES ACROSS THE PLAINS TO WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION SAT INTO SUN WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
GRID LOAD MODEL CONSENSUS HAD SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SUN
AND THIS WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU AND SC IS ACROSS THE AREA. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
QUITE VARIABLE RANGING FROM SCT TO OVC...WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 3K FEET TO AROUND 5K FEET. CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS ALSO SCATTERING
OUT LATE. AS SUCH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH
LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SBH

000
FXUS63 KPAH 201826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AIRMASS UNSTABLE ACROSS THE AREA...BUT NO LIFTING MECHANISMS AT
THIS TIME SO JUST CU...WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AND GUSTY SSW WINDS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON FOR
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION COULD MOVE
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY.
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAINS TO BE SEEN. SHOULD BE A LULL...THEN A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY. IN TERMS OF TEMPS
USED A BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF/GEM GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS AND OPENING IT UP
AS A PROGRESSIVE/POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...THEN MOVING THIS WAVE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY THE
WEEKEND. A BROAD RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
AND STRONGLY PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...SMALL DIURNAL CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE...ASSOCIATED WITH MINOR/MESOSCALE IMPULSES
MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE IMPACTING THE LAPSE RATES ON A SMALLER
SCALE. THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK POPS/WEATHER ARE ACTUALLY
LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

GIVEN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE UTILIZED TOWARD THIS
FORECAST...MADE SOME UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS ON MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES AND
LOWERED DEWPOINT GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL BIASES. IN
ADDITION...HAD TO VEER SURFACE WINDS SLIGHTLY TO COUNT FOR
INITIALIZATION ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

SCT-BKN CU WITH SSW WINDS GENERALLY 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS
IS UNSTABLE...BUT LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED.
WILL MONITOR TRENDS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY. KEPT PROB30S FOR TSRA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WINDS LEVELING OFF.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KLMK 201732
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
131 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Low-level debris clouds from morning convection across the Middle
Mississippi Valley have overspread the Lower Ohio Valley. These
should break up a bit this afternoon as winds become gusty out of
the southwest and mix the boundary layer. Even with the cloud cover,
temperatures have increased into the low and mid 70s as of 10 AM
EDT. With clouds expected to break up later, will not make many
adjustments to the running forecast at this time.

Otherwise, ridging aloft remains in control. According to the latest
guidance and aircraft soundings, there is a cap aloft. Some models
break that cap this afternoon, while others hold on to at least some
weak inversion. Believe some models are advecting dewpoints that are
too high into the region, creating more available surface-based
CAPE. With this, will side with slightly lower dewpoints and at
least a weak cap. If bombarded with outflow boundaries today, then I
would say there is the potential for pulse storms to develop which
could go big with 2-3K J/kg available. However, outflow from morning
convection washed out before reaching our area and do not see any
convection close by that would help trigger development. So, plan to
continue with a dry forecast this afternoon, but will monitor trends.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Tuesday)...
Issued at 309 AM EDT May 20 2013

The biggest concern for the early morning hours continues to be
patchy fog formation, however steady southerly winds will likely
keep this potential confined to sheltered valleys and spots that
received rainfall yesterday. Will only keep patchy fog wording in
the zones for now. Otherwise expect a dry, mostly clear, and mild
overnight in the mid and upper 60s.

An upper level ridge axis is in place over the Ohio Valley and will
remain that way today. Meanwhile, central CONUS trough and its
associated features will continue to produce severe weather across
the eastern Plains into the Great Lakes. Will keep the forecast dry
over our region as there will be no real trigger for convection. A
couple of concerns worth noting, however. First of all, forecast
soundings do not show as much of a subsidence inversion as had been
forecast in past days. Secondly, the generally uncapped environment
will be quite unstable as temperatures in the upper 80s and dew
points in the upper 60s combine with steep low and mid level lapse
rates. There is potential that differential heating (from upstream
convective debris) or a remnant outflow boundary (also from upstream
convection) could set off a few thunderstorms. The higher resolution
20/00Z SPC WRF model shows this, but has not done well over our area
recently. Anything that is able to go in our environment will likely
go big due to the instability. After collaboration with surrounding
offices, have decided to keep the forecast dry as there is a low
probability of this occurring and coverage is expected to be less
than 20 percent. Will have to watch for areas of moisture
convergence and cu development this afternoon. If any storm does go,
large hail, cloud to ground lightning, and heavy rainfall would be
the main threats.

Temperatures are expected to be even warmer today under partly
cloudy skies and steady southerly flow. The forecast temperature for
Louisville (90) is expected to fall just 1 degree short of the old
record (91 set in 1934). A few spots will likely be right around the
90 degree mark, although the majority of locations will settle for
the upper 80s. Much will depend on cloud cover, especially if
upstream convective debris makes it this far east.

As we move into tonight and Tuesday, the upper level ridge over
our area will break down as the trough axis moves into the eastern
Plains and upper Midwest. With stronger westerlies aloft and a
strongly unstable airmass in place, upstream convection is expected
to survive into the Ohio Valley. Tonight`s chances will only be
across southern Indiana, however by Tuesday much of the CWA will
have solid storm chances (40-50%). This will begin an active period
of weather as the associated cold front hangs back to our west for a
couple of days. SPC has placed areas along and west of a Bowling
Green to Frankfort line in a slight risk. This makes sense given the
increase in 0-6 KM bulk shear around 25-30 knots and the strongly
unstable airmass. Multicell clusters with heavy rainfall and cloud
to ground lightning, along with isolated instances of large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats.

Tonight`s temperatures will again be mild in the upper 60s and low
70s. Tuesday will see a warmup to the upper 80s in most spots.

.Long Term (Tuesday night - Sunday)...
Issued at 306 AM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Thunderstorms will erupt from Illinois to Texas around the beginning
of the long term and will push east into our region overnight
Tuesday night.  While severe weather looks likely out to our west,
the storms will become increasingly elevated as they head eastward
as shown on sounding progs advertising a strong nocturnal inversion
setting up around 925hPa.  So, while the low level jet does crank up
from Memphis to Indianapolis overnight, most of those winds should
stay off the surface.  Wet bulb zeroes look to be a little too high
for anything more than isolated marginally severe hail.  The best
chance for any strong storms will be along and west of Interstate 65.

Wednesday remains complicated.  Surface low pressure will move from
Illinois to Michigan and will drag a cold front into the Mississippi
Valley.  We`ll be under the entrance region of the upper jet and
additional convection is likely.  However, how strong the storms
will be is still a question mark.  Surface based instability may be
hampered depending on how much cloud and shower activity there is
from the previous night`s rain.  Total totals in the upper 40s and
SWEAT index around 300 are marginal for any severe storms (and are
actually lower on Wednesday than Tuesday night).  Wet bulb zeroes do
lower some on Wednesday, though, supporting a little more of a hail
risk.

Scattered storms will remain in the forecast Wednesday night and
Thursday until the aforementioned low pulls off into New England and
drags a secondary cold front through here Thursday evening.
Canadian high pressure will then move in from the north and keep us
dry through at least Saturday.

The forecast for Saturday night-Sunday is almost nil confidence,
with the GFS keeping us dry and the ECMWF bringing in widespread
shower/tstorm activity.  Will lean toward the generally more
reliable ECMWF this far out in the forecast, and even the drier GFS
has a warm front in the Ohio Valley during this time period, further
supporting the idea of a chance of rain.  Will keep PoPs very low.

Will go for high temperatures on Wednesday around 80, though the
prevalence of clouds/precip will have a big effect on that.  Highs
should then be in the 70s for the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Mon May 20 2013

Morning low-level debris clouds should give way to VFR conditions
this afternoon and evening as south-southwest winds help mix the
lower atmosphere and an upper-level ridge of high pressure holds
overhead. Expect a few Cu around 2-4 K feet and some upper level
clouds. Southerly winds will increase to between 10 and 15 mph by
late morning with a few gusts up around 20 mph. Scattered showers
and storms may move into southern Indiana late tonight, in a
weakening state. These appear to approach SDF in the pre-dawn hours.
Not sure what form they will possess, given the weakening. With low
confidence and differences between the latest suite of guidance,
will not mention in the SDF TAF at this time. Another concern is
marginal LLWS at SDF and BWG around 09-13Z. There is a decent
inversion at low levels, but if outflow moves in during this time,
LLWS will be void. Given the uncertainty and marginal status, will
not mention in the TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........MJP
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........MJP