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000
FXUS63 KPAH 061751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
KCGI/KEVV/KOWB. ISOLATED -TSRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT KCGI THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OVERNIGHT MID CLOUDS
LOWER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. TIMING OF POTENTIAL
SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS IS NOT CLEAR SO COVERED WITH A
PROB30 FOR MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SCATTERED CUMULUS AND SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
KCGI/KEVV/KOWB. ISOLATED -TSRA CAN`T BE RULED OUT AT KCGI THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THREAT IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. OVERNIGHT MID CLOUDS
LOWER AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NW. TIMING OF POTENTIAL
SHRA/TSRA AFFECTING TERMINALS IS NOT CLEAR SO COVERED WITH A
PROB30 FOR MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS. MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT INTO TMRW MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SP


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 061729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

A mostly VFR TAF is forecast although several uncertainties exist
for this TAF period.  For the rest of the afternoon, there is a
small chance for an isld shower/storm mainly near BWG so did include
a VCSH there.  Diurnal cu should dissipate this evening leaving only
a few upper level clouds for much of the overnight period.  A low
level jet of 25-30 kts is expected to develop after 6Z across the
Ohio Valley.  Soundings indicate some marginal low level wind shear
may be possible between 8-13Z, but will let the evening TAF issuance
make that decision since it`s marginal.  Also some light br may
develop at BWG/LEX during the pre-dawn hours given a very moist low
level atmosphere.  Scattered convection will form tomorrow morning
ahead of an approaching cold front.  Convection will become more
numerous tomorrow afternoon with t-storms possible at the TAF
sites.  Winds will be SSW through the TAF period becoming gusty
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

A mostly VFR TAF is forecast although several uncertainties exist
for this TAF period.  For the rest of the afternoon, there is a
small chance for an isld shower/storm mainly near BWG so did include
a VCSH there.  Diurnal cu should dissipate this evening leaving only
a few upper level clouds for much of the overnight period.  A low
level jet of 25-30 kts is expected to develop after 6Z across the
Ohio Valley.  Soundings indicate some marginal low level wind shear
may be possible between 8-13Z, but will let the evening TAF issuance
make that decision since it`s marginal.  Also some light br may
develop at BWG/LEX during the pre-dawn hours given a very moist low
level atmosphere.  Scattered convection will form tomorrow morning
ahead of an approaching cold front.  Convection will become more
numerous tomorrow afternoon with t-storms possible at the TAF
sites.  Winds will be SSW through the TAF period becoming gusty
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KJKL 061518 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON
RIDGES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061518 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1118 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. IN
BETWEEN THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM AND A TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT
LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY REGION...SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS BUILDING
TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION TODAY TO
EASTERN LOCATIONS...WITH A DAY TO DRY OUT FOR MOST.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR
TRENDS. THIS LED TO LOWERING MAX T A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA DUE TO THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON
RIDGES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KLMK 061428
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061428
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061428
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061428
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061428
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061428
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1028 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1025 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Updated the forecast to remove fog wording as much of the fog has
burned off or will shortly.  The rest of the day should be mostly
sunny to partly cloudy with an isolated shower or storm possible
over south central and west central KY.  A few storms have formed
over southeast MO this morning and are moving east, but think that
they will at least weaken if not dissipate by the time they reach
our region to due to capping/subsidence from the ridge in place.
High temps still look to top out in the mid to upper 80s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 061204
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 804 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

MOST LOCATIONS HAD VERY LOW CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY AT TAF
ISSUANCE. THERE WERE ALSO SOME SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE
THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY VFR FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS MAY PERSIST OR EVEN REDEVELOP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE IS NEAR THE WV BORDER. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIE
OUT THIS EVENING. FOG WILL DEVELOP IN VALLEYS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
OUTWARD. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY THOSE NOT ON
RIDGES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KPAH 061142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LAST
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS FIVE HUNDRED FEET. THIS LOW STRATUS
SPREAD ACROSS KPAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH KEVV/KOWB BEFORE
THEIR BASES CLIMB TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN LESS OF A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...THEN A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 061142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LAST
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS FIVE HUNDRED FEET. THIS LOW STRATUS
SPREAD ACROSS KPAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH KEVV/KOWB BEFORE
THEIR BASES CLIMB TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN LESS OF A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...THEN A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LAST
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS FIVE HUNDRED FEET. THIS LOW STRATUS
SPREAD ACROSS KPAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH KEVV/KOWB BEFORE
THEIR BASES CLIMB TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN LESS OF A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...THEN A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061142
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK FORMED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LAST
NIGHT...WITH CIGS AS LOW AS FIVE HUNDRED FEET. THIS LOW STRATUS
SPREAD ACROSS KPAH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
RISE THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS BY LATE
THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY NOT REACH KEVV/KOWB BEFORE
THEIR BASES CLIMB TO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE FOG HAS BEEN LESS OF A
PROBLEM THIS MORNING...WITH PRIMARILY MVFR VSBYS.

DURING THE AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS...BUT TOO MINIMAL TO WARRANT
MENTION IN TAFS.

THE DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET...THEN A MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES CENTRAL
MISSOURI. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF PRECIP...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KLMK 061054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 061054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Main challenge is how long the fog will persist in BWG, which has
been mostly socked in for the last couple hours. Will most likely
initialize LIFR, with a gradual lifting of the fog/stratus by
mid-morning and finally scouring out late morning.

LEX briefly went to IFR earlier, but at the moment is running VFR.
Will initialize prevailing VFR, but probably include a TEMPO for
MVFR but that will be a last minute decision.

Expect light SW winds and shallow diurnal cu this afternoon. Not
expecting a repeat of the fog tonight, as the gradient tightens up
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed overnight. Planning period
at SDF will see increasing SW winds and a VFR ceiling, but not
enough confidence to put any precip in the TAF yet.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 061040
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061040
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES...BUT
DECIDED TO KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH RES MODELS PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.
ALSO FRESHENED UP T/TD GRIDS TO ALIGN WITH MOST RECENT OBS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060844
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE PASSING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL SEND
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.
IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. MODELS SHOW
VARIATION CONCERNING HOW FAR SOUTH IT MAKES IT...AND THIS PLAYS A
ROLE IN THE POP. HAVE USED A POP GRADIENT WITH HIGHER POPS IN THE
NORTH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SE CONUS AND THEN SLOWLY RETROGRADES TO
THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME CONVECTION
POPPING UP WITH THE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE WILL NOT BE UNDER THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE. HOWEVER...THE POP WILL BE FAIRLY LOW...AND THE GREATER
CHANCE WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST...FURTHER REMOVED FROM
THE RIDGE AND CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 060843
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060843
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060843
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060757
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

A FEW STUBBORN SHOWERS REMAIN IN EASTERN KENTUCKY AS OF 330 AM BUT
SHOULDN`T CAUSE ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THIS MORNING.
SO HAVE DECIDED TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A BIT EARLY. WITH A
MOIST GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES...AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE SET IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 1/2 MI OR LESS IN
SPOTS. THIS IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND WILL INCLUDE
IT IN THE HWO.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING OF CONDITIONS AND SKY
COVER FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE MAY BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK FROM THE RAIN UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW
WILL REACH THE MID 80S...RIGHT AT NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF
JULY. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME WE WILL SEE THE 85 DEGREE MARK IN
OVER A WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060711
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Surface pressure pattern remains quite sloppy, while an upper low
continues to retreat slowly eastward into the Appalachians, giving
way to shortwave ridging. In spite of SW flow and a warm and moist
boundary-layer, deep moisture will be on the decrease with
precipitable water dropping to just over an inch. Soundings will
still be unstable, making it hard to rule out an isolated pop-up
over south central or east central Kentucky, but this only warrants
the slightest of slight chances. Afternoon highs will recover to
near climo for the first time in July.

Tonight will see clouds increasing and a more mixy SSW flow as a
front approaches the area from the NW. A fairly vigorous shortwave
trof will be pushing across the upper Great Lakes late tonight and
Tuesday, and should drive the front well into the Ohio Valley, where
it will hang up. POPs late tonight will be limited to slight chance
west of I-65, but will increase sharply Tuesday with the front in
the area. Forcing for SVR will remain well to our north, but heavy
rain threat will ramp up as the front lays out parallel to the flow
aloft.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 308 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature weak zonal flow across the Ohio Valley.  This regime will
amplify through the period, as a Southeast ridge strengthens and
builds into the Ohio Valley. This large-scale ridging will bring
warmer temperatures to the region, along with less in the way of
precipitation chances.

The 00Z suite of guidance has come in with general agreement on a
more amplified regime through the long term period, which is now two
model cycles in a row (00Z, 12Z) that has shown this.  Therefore,
have trended the forecast quite a bit drier Wednesday night-Sunday,
as it appears this large-scale ridging will win out, especially
across southern and central KY.

A cold front will sag into the region Tuesday night, but will be
stalling as it becomes parallel to the upper-level flow.  Therefore,
showers/thunderstorms will have a tough time making it into southern
KY, so have confined the better pops to the northern half of the
forecast area.

The upper-level flow then turns more southwesterly by Wednesday,
which will allow what`s left of the boundary to lift north as an
effective warm front.  Given this boundary exiting the area, little
focus will remain for thunderstorm coverage on Wednesday, especially
across southern KY.  With less expected convection, have upped
temperatures quite a bit for Wednesday which puts highs in the mid
to even upper 80s.

The remainder of the long term will be characterized by the main
front residing north of the region, which will keep the better focus
for convection off to the north of the forecast area.  There may be
outflow boundaries and differential heating boundaries that spark
convection at times Thursday through Sunday, especially during peak
heating, but the signal just is not there for anything widespread as
the upper ridge will be in place over the Ohio Valley.  This is
certainly welcomed news as the region needs some time to dry out
from the recent soaking we`ve seen as of late.

Given the ridge building in and expected sunshine, temperatures will
be quite warm by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as
readings push into the upper 80s and lower 90s.  This heat coupled
with dewpoints in the 70s will help push heat indices near 100
degrees at times.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Minor restrictions to vis already showing up in LEX and BWG, and
that will be our challenge overnight. Calm winds, clearing skies,
and plenty of low-level moisture all support fog formation. However,
the night is very short, there is some slightly drier air trying to
filter in, and even the usually pessimistic NAM MOS guidance isn`t
hitting it that hard. Other bit of uncertainty in LEX is how much of
an influence the lingering mid-level clouds associated with the
upper low will be. All that said, will initialize with MVFR
visibilities and go with at least a TEMPO IFR for a few hrs around
daybreak. SDF is already a bit drier and always more mixy, so will
stay unrestricted there.

Should mix out any fog/stratus by late morning, with light SW winds
and just diurnal cu expected for the rest of Monday. Any return of
precip Monday night is a low probability, and most likely beyond the
valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 060640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060640
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA BUT EXPECT THEM TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. SO HAVE FRESHENED UP POPS TO
REFLECT THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED T/TD GRIDS TO
REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. DENSE FOG IS A CONCERN TONIGHT AS MUCH OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES OF 1/2 MILE OR LESS SO
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060548
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR JKL AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT THOSE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...FOG HAS
ALREADY SET IN ACROSS THE REMAINING TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
BEFORE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND 14Z...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
THEREAFTER. WITH CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ087-
088-107-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KLMK 060510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Minor restrictions to vis already showing up in LEX and BWG, and
that will be our challenge overnight. Calm winds, clearing skies,
and plenty of low-level moisture all support fog formation. However,
the night is very short, there is some slightly drier air trying to
filter in, and even the usually pessimistic NAM MOS guidance isn`t
hitting it that hard. Other bit of uncertainty in LEX is how much of
an influence the lingering mid-level clouds associated with the
upper low will be. All that said, will initialize with MVFR
visibilities and go with at least a TEMPO IFR for a few hrs around
daybreak. SDF is already a bit drier and always more mixy, so will
stay unrestricted there.

Should mix out any fog/stratus by late morning, with light SW winds
and just diurnal cu expected for the rest of Monday. Any return of
precip Monday night is a low probability, and most likely beyond the
valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 060510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Minor restrictions to vis already showing up in LEX and BWG, and
that will be our challenge overnight. Calm winds, clearing skies,
and plenty of low-level moisture all support fog formation. However,
the night is very short, there is some slightly drier air trying to
filter in, and even the usually pessimistic NAM MOS guidance isn`t
hitting it that hard. Other bit of uncertainty in LEX is how much of
an influence the lingering mid-level clouds associated with the
upper low will be. All that said, will initialize with MVFR
visibilities and go with at least a TEMPO IFR for a few hrs around
daybreak. SDF is already a bit drier and always more mixy, so will
stay unrestricted there.

Should mix out any fog/stratus by late morning, with light SW winds
and just diurnal cu expected for the rest of Monday. Any return of
precip Monday night is a low probability, and most likely beyond the
valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Minor restrictions to vis already showing up in LEX and BWG, and
that will be our challenge overnight. Calm winds, clearing skies,
and plenty of low-level moisture all support fog formation. However,
the night is very short, there is some slightly drier air trying to
filter in, and even the usually pessimistic NAM MOS guidance isn`t
hitting it that hard. Other bit of uncertainty in LEX is how much of
an influence the lingering mid-level clouds associated with the
upper low will be. All that said, will initialize with MVFR
visibilities and go with at least a TEMPO IFR for a few hrs around
daybreak. SDF is already a bit drier and always more mixy, so will
stay unrestricted there.

Should mix out any fog/stratus by late morning, with light SW winds
and just diurnal cu expected for the rest of Monday. Any return of
precip Monday night is a low probability, and most likely beyond the
valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060510
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
110 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2015

Minor restrictions to vis already showing up in LEX and BWG, and
that will be our challenge overnight. Calm winds, clearing skies,
and plenty of low-level moisture all support fog formation. However,
the night is very short, there is some slightly drier air trying to
filter in, and even the usually pessimistic NAM MOS guidance isn`t
hitting it that hard. Other bit of uncertainty in LEX is how much of
an influence the lingering mid-level clouds associated with the
upper low will be. All that said, will initialize with MVFR
visibilities and go with at least a TEMPO IFR for a few hrs around
daybreak. SDF is already a bit drier and always more mixy, so will
stay unrestricted there.

Should mix out any fog/stratus by late morning, with light SW winds
and just diurnal cu expected for the rest of Monday. Any return of
precip Monday night is a low probability, and most likely beyond the
valid TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 060452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST CO/CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH VARIATIONS IN THE
RADIATIONAL LOSS CLOUD COVER AND ANTECEDENT CANADIAN FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUME ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROPS WILL BE SLOWED TO THE POINT
THAT OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE DELAYED OR BECOME NON-
EXISTENT IN SOME AREAS. ANY FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE EASTERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND IN FAVORED PROTECTED AREA OF CROWLEY`S RIDGE AND THE SHAWNEE
HILLS...WHERE SHARP ELEVATION CHANGES WILL FAVOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MODIFY THERMAL LAYER HUMIDITY PROFILES TO
GENERATE PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST CO/CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH VARIATIONS IN THE
RADIATIONAL LOSS CLOUD COVER AND ANTECEDENT CANADIAN FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUME ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROPS WILL BE SLOWED TO THE POINT
THAT OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE DELAYED OR BECOME NON-
EXISTENT IN SOME AREAS. ANY FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE EASTERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND IN FAVORED PROTECTED AREA OF CROWLEY`S RIDGE AND THE SHAWNEE
HILLS...WHERE SHARP ELEVATION CHANGES WILL FAVOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MODIFY THERMAL LAYER HUMIDITY PROFILES TO
GENERATE PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO SPIRAL IN FROM WEST
VIRGINIA...WHILE ANOTHER NEARLY STATIONARY BAND IS GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS AND POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. WILL MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
EAST...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WEAKENING TREND...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED
THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO
HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST...SO WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN
JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060236
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
936 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST CO/CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH VARIATIONS IN THE
RADIATIONAL LOSS CLOUD COVER AND ANTECEDENT CANADIAN FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUME ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROPS WILL BE SLOWED TO THE POINT
THAT OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE DELAYED OR BECOME NON-
EXISTENT IN SOME AREAS. ANY FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE EASTERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND IN FAVORED PROTECTED AREA OF CROWLEY`S RIDGE AND THE SHAWNEE
HILLS...WHERE SHARP ELEVATION CHANGES WILL FAVOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MODIFY THERMAL LAYER HUMIDITY PROFILES TO
GENERATE PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING TODAY AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WENT ON
THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF GUIDANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING QUICKLY AROUND
SUNRISE. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060236
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
936 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN
RESPONSE TO THE NORTHEAST CO/CENTRAL NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW...BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING SHOULD INCREASE OVERNIGHT. WITH VARIATIONS IN THE
RADIATIONAL LOSS CLOUD COVER AND ANTECEDENT CANADIAN FOREST FIRE
SMOKE PLUME ALOFT...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SURFACE
WINDS...TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT DROPS WILL BE SLOWED TO THE POINT
THAT OVERNIGHT FOG PRODUCTION WILL BE DELAYED OR BECOME NON-
EXISTENT IN SOME AREAS. ANY FOG WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA...THE EASTERN PENNYRILE AREA OF WEST KENTUCKY
AND IN FAVORED PROTECTED AREA OF CROWLEY`S RIDGE AND THE SHAWNEE
HILLS...WHERE SHARP ELEVATION CHANGES WILL FAVOR COLD AIR DRAINAGE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MODIFY THERMAL LAYER HUMIDITY PROFILES TO
GENERATE PATCHY FOG IN THESE AREAS.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING TODAY AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WENT ON
THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF GUIDANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING QUICKLY AROUND
SUNRISE. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060132
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060132
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060132
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060132
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Last of the showers are ending. Winds are fairly light across the
area, and many spots have dewpoints in the upper 60s, close to or
below current forecast lows. Have bumped up fog wording to areas for
many locations, though think it will still be patchy in the
Louisville metro thanks to a late afternoon drop in dewpoints.
Guidance is not calling for dense fog at this point, perhaps because
of lingering moisture in the low levels that could generate some
cloud cover. Will hold off any dense fog products, but overnight
crew may have to go with them as we see how visibility and cloud
trends go overnight.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLOWLY PIVOTING AWAY FROM THE AREA.
CONVECTION HAS DWINDLED ACROSS OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND
GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND DIMINISHING FORCING THROUGH
TONIGHT...HAVE LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE ON TIME. TO THE
EAST...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM WILL
STILL BE THREATENING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF THE
WATCH AS IS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR ANY SLOW-
MOVING CELLS. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND POPS TO MATCH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
ALSO ALLOWED FOR A LITTLE MORE FOG GIVEN ALL OF THE RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SMALL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN JKL AND SJS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM
A SHOWER OR STORM WILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING...BEFORE IFR OR WORSE FOG LIKELY SETS IN. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z MONDAY...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE FOG FORMATION ONCE AGAIN. WITH GOOD
MIXING TODAY AND A LIGHT SOUTH WIND DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT...WENT ON
THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE OF GUIDANCE. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW PERIODS OF
IFR CONDITIONS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING QUICKLY AROUND
SUNRISE. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...BUT THE EXPECTED COVERAGE
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 052333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 052333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052333
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
733 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 730 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Have some slightly reduced visibilities, just under 10 miles, this
hour at KLEX AND KSDF. The latter site however had a dewpoint drop
down to near 60 in the last hour though. This dry air mixing down
should help to keep KSDF from dropping below VFR toward daybreak,
but KLEX and even KBWG should see at least MVFR after midnight,
given low level moisture in place there. IFR conditions cannot be
ruled out toward daybreak as well, given light winds and relatively
clear skies.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 051958
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND D
04-06Z...AND COULD TANK INTO IFR/LO IFR CATEGORIES 08-13Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 051958
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE. UNTIL THEN...WE CAN EXPECT MAINLY RAINFREE
CONDITIONS AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROF. ON THE FLIP SIDE...HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE RAMPED UP SOME MORE MONDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE MID 90S MOST LOCATIONS. AS STATED EARLIER...WILL
NEED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHCS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THINKING IS STILL MAINLY
NON SEVERE AT THIS TIME...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL ON
INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME ADDED
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT SHOULD BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

FRONT WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE IT ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE REGION
BEFORE STALLING OUT TUESDAY NIGHT/WED. THEREFORE...WILL NEED TO
KEEP DECENT SHOWER/STORM CHCS IN FOR THAT TIME FRAME. STILL LOOKS
AS THOUGH BEST CHCS WILL BE UP ALONG THE I-64 CORRIDOR...ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SFC BOUNDARY. STRENGTH OF ANY STORMS WILL AGAIN
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL START WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN OF LATE. BETTER THAN AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE MID WEEK TRANSITIONS TO AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BY LATE WEEK
AND THE WEEKEND GIVEN CONTINUED MODEL VARIABILITY.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY TRAVERSE THE PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BETTER CHANCES WILL EXIST
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64...WITH LOWER CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH
TOWARDS THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS.

BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE TRENDING IN A DRIER
DIRECTION AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS NORTH INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN STARTED TO
INDICATE THIS A FEW RUNS BACK...AND THE CANADIAN HAS ADDED SOME
CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WAS THE
ECMWF...AT LEAST AS OF ITS 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS ALSO
TRENDED DRIER BY LATE WEEK AS THE MAIN ENERGY SHIFTS WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA.

UNFORTUNATELY...THERE WAS LITTLE COLLABORATIVE STOMACH TO REDUCE OR
ELIMINATE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES MUCH FROM THE INITIALIZED
BLEND. SO WE ENDED UP LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...
EVEN THOUGH OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT MUCH OF THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY PERIOD MAY WELL END UP DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL. HIGHS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY AROUND D
04-06Z...AND COULD TANK INTO IFR/LO IFR CATEGORIES 08-13Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051948
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051948
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...A MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION. SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG SANDY REGION AND IN THE SOMERSET VICINITY. THESE
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES.

THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY MEANDER NORTHEAST THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT TOWARD THE NE KY/WESTERN WV/SOUTHERN OH AREA. THIS MID
LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEPART INTO THE MID AND UPPER OH VALLEY
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROUGH
WILL MOVE FROM THE PLAINS STATES AND ENTER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. UNTIL THEN...SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN A THREAT AND
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT AS IS AT THIS
POINT. SOME STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND FOG DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY
DENSE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FOG NOT BEING CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS.

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. A RELATIVE LULL IN
PRECIP CHANCES IS EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
INTO MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT IN BETWEEN THE DEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW
AND THE APPROACHING. IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051909
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Light rain over LEX will move out over the next few hours as an
upper level low shifts eastward. Ceilings are expected to rise to
VFR after the precipitation moves out. Thereafter, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail through the evening hours. Some light
fog will be possible once again tomorrow morning at LEX and BWG.
This should dissipate by mid morning with winds out of the SW and
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051909
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a well defined circulation
in the upper level flow over eastern Kentucky. At the surface low
pressure is centered near the KY/VA border. The majority of the
showers this afternoon will be across east central Kentucky where
light to moderate rains continue. There could be a few stronger
showers around the Lake Cumberland area. However, for the most part
these should only produce brief heavy rainfall and are not expected
to cause any additional flooding issues. Therefore have decided to
cancel the Flash Flood Watch this afternoon. Short term models also
have isolated to scattered showers developing across southwestern
portions of south central KY this afternoon. These should wane by
late afternoon.

All of the rain should move out of the area by early evening. The
overnight hours are expected to be dry with light to calm winds and
partly to mostly cloudy skies. With plenty of low level moisture,
some patchy fog may develop across the region, so have added that in
to the forecast.

Southwesterly flow will set up tomorrow ahead of a cold front which
will begin to approach the region tomorrow night. There will be
little in the way of large scale forcing tomorrow. However,
relatively unstable soundings and a very weak upper level
disturbance moving through the flow could spark isolated showers
and/or thunderstorms. Rain chances will be on the increase late
Monday night as the cold front nears from the northwest.

Temperatures Monday are expected to be on the warm side with highs
in the mid to upper 80s. Lows tonight and tomorrow night will be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Tuesday still looks to be the wettest day in the long term period as
a front drops southeast into the Ohio Valley.  Although the
strongest mid to upper level flow should remain to our north, there
may be enough 0-6 km bulk shear to produce some strong storms with
gusty winds.  Storm strength will also depend on available
instability.  While models are showing some, it may be difficult to
build much if we start the day cloudy with an initial round of
showers/storms.  Will need to watch the evolution/timing of this
weather system in coming days.

For mid week, the front looks to stall over our region initially
with uncertainty still in how quickly a SE CONUS ridge will work
into the Ohio Valley and just how strong it will get.  Most mid
range models continue to support shortwaves riding along the
boundary producing multiple rounds of showers/storms Tues night/Wed.
By Wed night/Thurs, most models indicate that the boundary will be
far enough north, to result in lesser POPs.  Even the recent, wetter
outlier (the Euro) has trended drier on its 12Z run.  However, the
door is still open for diurnally based convection peaking during the
afternoon/evening hours.  This pattern looks to potentially hold
through the weekend with daily POPs.  If the recent drier
model consensus holds, at least some dry periods during the
overnight hours might be added to the forecast beyond mid week.

Temperatures will generally range through the 80s for highs for
Tues-Thurs with lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.  As the ridge
builds into the Ohio Valley, it will bring a warmer airmass
resulting in high temps in the mid 80s to lower 90s for Fri-Sun with
lows in the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Light rain over LEX will move out over the next few hours as an
upper level low shifts eastward. Ceilings are expected to rise to
VFR after the precipitation moves out. Thereafter, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail through the evening hours. Some light
fog will be possible once again tomorrow morning at LEX and BWG.
This should dissipate by mid morning with winds out of the SW and
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE LOOKS TO
REMAIN RATHER FLAT WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY JUST TO THE NORTH OF ITS CORE. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MEANDER AROUND TO OUR NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT WILL NECESSITATE A
DAILY MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS WERE
NUDGED UPWARD INTO THE MUGGY MID AND UPPER 80S TOWARD THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051727 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051727 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY REGION
AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION.
SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS EAST
KY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN TN AND SW VA. THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE REGION HAS HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM WHERE THE LOW CLOUDS
BROKE INTO THE 70S. THE STRONGER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
OCCUR ACROSS THAT REGION. ANY LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE
STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RUN THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RATHER LOW FFG VALUES AT PRESENT FOLLOWING THE
RECENT WET PERIOD OF THE LAST ONE TO TWO WEEKS. THIS FFA CONTINUES
UNTIL THE EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND LINGERS INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TIMING STILL LOOKS REASONABLE ATTM.

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND
OBSERVATION TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM IF TO VFR AT THE TAF SITES. THE BEST
CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND IN BETWEEN BANDS
OF SHOWERS. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 0Z. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT...BUT STRATUS BUILD DOWN AND OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR AT THE
TAF SITES BETWEEN 5Z AND 13Z. CIGS SHOULD LIFT AND VIS IMPROVE FOR
MVFR TO VFR LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM DEPARTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KLMK 051646
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Light rain over LEX will move out over the next few hours as an
upper level low shifts eastward. Ceilings are expected to rise to
VFR after the precipitation moves out. Thereafter, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail through the evening hours. Some light
fog will be possible once again tomorrow morning at LEX and BWG.
This should dissipate by mid morning with winds out of the SW and
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051646
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Light rain over LEX will move out over the next few hours as an
upper level low shifts eastward. Ceilings are expected to rise to
VFR after the precipitation moves out. Thereafter, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail through the evening hours. Some light
fog will be possible once again tomorrow morning at LEX and BWG.
This should dissipate by mid morning with winds out of the SW and
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051646
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Light rain over LEX will move out over the next few hours as an
upper level low shifts eastward. Ceilings are expected to rise to
VFR after the precipitation moves out. Thereafter, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail through the evening hours. Some light
fog will be possible once again tomorrow morning at LEX and BWG.
This should dissipate by mid morning with winds out of the SW and
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051646
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1244 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Light rain over LEX will move out over the next few hours as an
upper level low shifts eastward. Ceilings are expected to rise to
VFR after the precipitation moves out. Thereafter, VFR conditions
and light winds will prevail through the evening hours. Some light
fog will be possible once again tomorrow morning at LEX and BWG.
This should dissipate by mid morning with winds out of the SW and
partly cloudy skies for the remainder of Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051455 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LAKE
CUMBERLAND REGION. BANDS OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS WITH DECENT
RAINFALL RATES ARE ROTATING AROUND IT. A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE
MTN PARKWAY CORRIDOR HAVE PICKED UP 1 TO 2 INCHES SINCE SUNRISE.
THE INITIAL BAND/DEFORMATION ZONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS HAS MOVED
NORTH TO NEAR THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR AND GRADUALLY WEAKENED.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AND OVER PARTS
OF EAST TN. SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTER COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES TO DEVELOP. LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE OF PERSISTENT SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL RUN THE
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AS THE GROUND IS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE WET WEATHER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.

ATTM..WE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTH TO INCLUDE
ALL BUT FLEMING COUNTY WHICH AS GENERALLY BE DRIER THAN THE REST
OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-107-109-
110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KLMK 051329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Restrictions will continue at KBWG and at KLEX this morning before
conditions improve at all sites through the afternoon.  IFR cigs
will continue to be possible at KBWG through the mid-morning hours,
before conditions improve.  It is looking increasingly likely that
KLEX will get in some shower activity this morning, but will leave
prevailing -TSRA out of the forecast for now as there does not
appear to be much lightning.  With the rain moving through this
morning, KLEX will likely see MVFR vsbys and cigs.

Otherwise, conditions will improve to VFR at all sites late this
morning through early this afternoon.  KLEX will stand the best
chance of seeing renewed showers/storms this afternoon, whereas KSDF
and KBWG should remain mainly dry.  All sites will remain VFR this
evening into tonight, although some light fog may plague mainly KLEX
and KBWG toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Restrictions will continue at KBWG and at KLEX this morning before
conditions improve at all sites through the afternoon.  IFR cigs
will continue to be possible at KBWG through the mid-morning hours,
before conditions improve.  It is looking increasingly likely that
KLEX will get in some shower activity this morning, but will leave
prevailing -TSRA out of the forecast for now as there does not
appear to be much lightning.  With the rain moving through this
morning, KLEX will likely see MVFR vsbys and cigs.

Otherwise, conditions will improve to VFR at all sites late this
morning through early this afternoon.  KLEX will stand the best
chance of seeing renewed showers/storms this afternoon, whereas KSDF
and KBWG should remain mainly dry.  All sites will remain VFR this
evening into tonight, although some light fog may plague mainly KLEX
and KBWG toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Restrictions will continue at KBWG and at KLEX this morning before
conditions improve at all sites through the afternoon.  IFR cigs
will continue to be possible at KBWG through the mid-morning hours,
before conditions improve.  It is looking increasingly likely that
KLEX will get in some shower activity this morning, but will leave
prevailing -TSRA out of the forecast for now as there does not
appear to be much lightning.  With the rain moving through this
morning, KLEX will likely see MVFR vsbys and cigs.

Otherwise, conditions will improve to VFR at all sites late this
morning through early this afternoon.  KLEX will stand the best
chance of seeing renewed showers/storms this afternoon, whereas KSDF
and KBWG should remain mainly dry.  All sites will remain VFR this
evening into tonight, although some light fog may plague mainly KLEX
and KBWG toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051329
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
929 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 926 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A band of rain continues to pivot across east and south central KY.
The strongest cores this morning are across south central KY with
light to moderate rains further to the north. Short term and
mesoscale models show much of this activity weakening over the next
couple of hours as the upper level low shifts eastward and dry air
gets entrained into the system. There could still be some
redevelopment across southeastern portions of the forecast area this
afternoon, however. Due to the expected weakening of the line
further to the north, and only light to moderate rains ongoing, have
decided not to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the north at this
time. The grids were updated to reflect ongoing precipitation and
expected trends through the day.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Restrictions will continue at KBWG and at KLEX this morning before
conditions improve at all sites through the afternoon.  IFR cigs
will continue to be possible at KBWG through the mid-morning hours,
before conditions improve.  It is looking increasingly likely that
KLEX will get in some shower activity this morning, but will leave
prevailing -TSRA out of the forecast for now as there does not
appear to be much lightning.  With the rain moving through this
morning, KLEX will likely see MVFR vsbys and cigs.

Otherwise, conditions will improve to VFR at all sites late this
morning through early this afternoon.  KLEX will stand the best
chance of seeing renewed showers/storms this afternoon, whereas KSDF
and KBWG should remain mainly dry.  All sites will remain VFR this
evening into tonight, although some light fog may plague mainly KLEX
and KBWG toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR
     KYZ066-067-075>078-081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 051136
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PIVOTING WESTWARD INTO TODD
COUNTY KY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEVV/KHOP CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF
A FACTOR THAN SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG
ON THE NMM MODEL. VERY LITTLE FORCING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION GIVEN LITTLE CAP AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
BY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WPC AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUES THROUGH WED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ONLY
80 TO 85 WITH PRECIP ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA EVERY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED E-W OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS WHERE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT TO
THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES WEAK H5 RIDGING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT...IT INDICATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA EVERY PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVING
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE THE NORM...BUT THEN
AGAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH NO PUSH
BEHIND THEM HAVE DIFFICULTY DISPLACING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO 5 OR
6SM IN HAZE BY MID-MORNING AS THE SUN BURNS IT OFF. SOME VSBYS WERE
NEAR ZERO AT SUNRISE...MAINLY THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS. SOON AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM.
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT AREAS OF VFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE PROBABILITY OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 051136
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PIVOTING WESTWARD INTO TODD
COUNTY KY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEVV/KHOP CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF
A FACTOR THAN SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG
ON THE NMM MODEL. VERY LITTLE FORCING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION GIVEN LITTLE CAP AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
BY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WPC AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUES THROUGH WED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ONLY
80 TO 85 WITH PRECIP ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA EVERY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED E-W OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS WHERE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT TO
THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES WEAK H5 RIDGING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT...IT INDICATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA EVERY PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVING
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE THE NORM...BUT THEN
AGAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH NO PUSH
BEHIND THEM HAVE DIFFICULTY DISPLACING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO 5 OR
6SM IN HAZE BY MID-MORNING AS THE SUN BURNS IT OFF. SOME VSBYS WERE
NEAR ZERO AT SUNRISE...MAINLY THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS. SOON AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM.
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT AREAS OF VFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE PROBABILITY OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 051136
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PIVOTING WESTWARD INTO TODD
COUNTY KY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEVV/KHOP CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF
A FACTOR THAN SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG
ON THE NMM MODEL. VERY LITTLE FORCING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION GIVEN LITTLE CAP AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
BY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WPC AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUES THROUGH WED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ONLY
80 TO 85 WITH PRECIP ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA EVERY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED E-W OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS WHERE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT TO
THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES WEAK H5 RIDGING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT...IT INDICATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA EVERY PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVING
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE THE NORM...BUT THEN
AGAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH NO PUSH
BEHIND THEM HAVE DIFFICULTY DISPLACING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO 5 OR
6SM IN HAZE BY MID-MORNING AS THE SUN BURNS IT OFF. SOME VSBYS WERE
NEAR ZERO AT SUNRISE...MAINLY THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS. SOON AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM.
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT AREAS OF VFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE PROBABILITY OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 051136
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PIVOTING WESTWARD INTO TODD
COUNTY KY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEVV/KHOP CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF
A FACTOR THAN SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG
ON THE NMM MODEL. VERY LITTLE FORCING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION GIVEN LITTLE CAP AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
BY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WPC AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUES THROUGH WED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ONLY
80 TO 85 WITH PRECIP ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA EVERY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED E-W OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS WHERE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT TO
THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES WEAK H5 RIDGING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT...IT INDICATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA EVERY PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVING
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE THE NORM...BUT THEN
AGAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH NO PUSH
BEHIND THEM HAVE DIFFICULTY DISPLACING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS IN FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO 5 OR
6SM IN HAZE BY MID-MORNING AS THE SUN BURNS IT OFF. SOME VSBYS WERE
NEAR ZERO AT SUNRISE...MAINLY THE KPAH/KCGI AREAS. SOON AFTER THE
FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM.
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT AREAS OF VFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

FOG APPEARS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. THE PROBABILITY OF IFR IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME...BUT IT MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN FUTURE TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Restrictions will continue at KBWG and at KLEX this morning before
conditions improve at all sites through the afternoon.  IFR cigs
will continue to be possible at KBWG through the mid-morning hours,
before conditions improve.  It is looking increasingly likely that
KLEX will get in some shower activity this morning, but will leave
prevailing -TSRA out of the forecast for now as there does not
appear to be much lightning.  With the rain moving through this
morning, KLEX will likely see MVFR vsbys and cigs.

Otherwise, conditions will improve to VFR at all sites late this
morning through early this afternoon.  KLEX will stand the best
chance of seeing renewed showers/storms this afternoon, whereas KSDF
and KBWG should remain mainly dry.  All sites will remain VFR this
evening into tonight, although some light fog may plague mainly KLEX
and KBWG toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Restrictions will continue at KBWG and at KLEX this morning before
conditions improve at all sites through the afternoon.  IFR cigs
will continue to be possible at KBWG through the mid-morning hours,
before conditions improve.  It is looking increasingly likely that
KLEX will get in some shower activity this morning, but will leave
prevailing -TSRA out of the forecast for now as there does not
appear to be much lightning.  With the rain moving through this
morning, KLEX will likely see MVFR vsbys and cigs.

Otherwise, conditions will improve to VFR at all sites late this
morning through early this afternoon.  KLEX will stand the best
chance of seeing renewed showers/storms this afternoon, whereas KSDF
and KBWG should remain mainly dry.  All sites will remain VFR this
evening into tonight, although some light fog may plague mainly KLEX
and KBWG toward the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 050828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PIVOTING WESTWARD INTO TODD
COUNTY KY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEVV/KHOP CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF
A FACTOR THAN SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG
ON THE NMM MODEL. VERY LITTLE FORCING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION GIVEN LITTLE CAP AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
BY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WPC AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUES THROUGH WED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ONLY
80 TO 85 WITH PRECIP ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA EVERY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED E-W OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS WHERE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT TO
THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES WEAK H5 RIDGING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT...IT INDICATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA EVERY PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVING
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE THE NORM...BUT THEN
AGAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH NO PUSH
BEHIND THEM HAVE DIFFICULTY DISPLACING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN SE MISSOURI.
SOON AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY
SCATTERED...BUT AREAS OF VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 050828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER NORTH MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PIVOTING WESTWARD INTO TODD
COUNTY KY THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE LOW CENTER PULLS SLOWLY
EAST/NORTHEAST TODAY...THE ORGANIZED PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS /NAMELY THE 00Z NMM/
DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE KEVV/KHOP CORRIDOR
DURING THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUDS SHOULD BE LESS OF
A FACTOR THAN SATURDAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER
60S.

ON MONDAY...SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SEASONABLY STRONG INSTABILITY...WITH CAPES LOCALLY OVER 3000 J/KG
ON THE NMM MODEL. VERY LITTLE FORCING WOULD BE NEEDED TO INITIATE
CONVECTION GIVEN LITTLE CAP AND DEW POINTS AROUND 70. A WEAK 500
MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
BY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY. FORECAST POPS WILL BE IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY. HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 90.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TROPICAL HUMIDITY AND RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING WINDS SUGGEST THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. WPC AVERAGE AMOUNTS IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE
LOOK REASONABLE FOR TUES THROUGH WED...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH
OF THE FRONT ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ONLY
80 TO 85 WITH PRECIP ON TUESDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER ALL OR PART OF OUR CWA EVERY 12
HOUR BLOCK OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED E-W OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE
OF THE BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. FROM THURSDAY NIGHT ON IS WHERE MODELS REALLY
BEGIN TO DIVERGE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON THE BOUNDARY AND LIFT IT TO
THE NORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS
INDICATES WEAK H5 RIDGING WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAFFLING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS OUR
CWA. AS A RESULT...IT INDICATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
ALL OR MOST OF OUR CWA EVERY PERIOD. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT. CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING...THIS TIME OF YEAR HAVING
THE H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA WOULD BE THE NORM...BUT THEN
AGAIN WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOW...FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WITH NO PUSH
BEHIND THEM HAVE DIFFICULTY DISPLACING HOT AND HUMID AIRMASSES.

TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY IFR EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT IN SE MISSOURI.
SOON AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING...EXPECT DIURNAL
CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAINLY
SCATTERED...BUT AREAS OF VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS...BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH VISUAL FLIGHT
RULES THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110-
112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 050818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110-
112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL SATURATED...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050726
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SLOW MOVING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BRINGING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA. WITH MANY LOCATIONS
STILL SATURATED...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AS PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KYZ068-069-079-080- 083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
KYZ087-088-109-110-112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KLMK 050659
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features generally weak
upper-level flow throughout much of the CONUS, except for the far
northern Plains through which a strong shortwave trough was
digging.  An upper-level low located within the weak flow aloft was
over portions of TN as of this writing, which will be the main focus
of the short term.

The upper-level low continues to spread moisture northward into
portions of southern KY early this morning.  Rainfall rates have
come down the past hour given the low-level jet associated
with this system veering more to the east.  However, flash flood
guidance in the Lake Cumberland region is on the order of an inch an
hour, or an 1.5" over 3 hours.  Therefore, even without very tall
convective cores, the moderate rains could be enough to create a few
issues.  In coordination with JKL and OHX, decided to go ahead and
issue a Flash Flood Watch earlier, mainly to cover the previous
heavier rains and the expected steadier rains through this morning.
However, additional scattered storms are possible in this area this
afternoon so went ahead and ran it through 00Z this evening.

In regards to this afternoon, the upper-level low will be pushing
east.  However, vort maxes spinning around it will likely help to
focus bands of convection, some of which will be west of the low`s
center.  The latest hi-res guidance suggests some of this convection
may make it as far west as the I-65 corridor, so have brought the
slight chances a bit further west.  Either way, don`t expect
coverage outside the far eastern CWA to be all that great, so think
most stay dry today.  Highs will climb into the mid 80s over the
west where there will be less cloud cover and precip, but only in
the upper 70s over the east where cloud cover will linger through
much of the day.

All locations will dry out tonight as the upper low pushes well east
of the area.  We may once again see some fog tonight, especially in
areas that see rain today.  Lows will be in the mid to upper 60s.

On Monday, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten as a cold
front pushes into the Midwest.  In the mid/upper levels, shortwave
ridging will be present in the wake of the upper low and ahead of
the approaching Midwest trough.  Therefore, think any convection
will be sparse.  Debated going completely dry with the forecast, but
soundings are generally uncapped and the ridging certainly isn`t
strong.  However, think coverage will be 10% to 20% at best on
Monday afternoon.  Given the southwest flow, temperatures will climb
well into the 80s, perhaps pushing the lower 90s in the typically
warmer spots.  This is usually a type of day where temperatures
overachieve, but given the very wet soils and antecedent conditions,
didn`t get too carried away with high temps.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

A wet pattern takes shape again Monday night through Wednesday, as a
weakening cold front moves SE into the Ohio Valley and hangs up.
Best precip chances Tuesday into Tuesday night, after which forecast
confidence drops off. SVR chances are meager as instability is not
impressive and strongest dynamics track well to our north. However,
heavy rain will become a threat especially Tuesday night and
Wednesday as the front lays out nearly parallel to the flow aloft.
Given recent wet weather, it won`t take much to create additional
flooding issues.

The latter half of the work week remains unsettled and could be
quite a wet pattern somewhere, but the models still don`t quite
agree on where that will be. ECMWF looks like the wetter solution as
it maintains a fairly flat upper pattern, while the GFS pumps up a
SE CONUS upper ridge, which would mean less precip coverage and more
of a diurnal signal. Still not confident enough to jump on either
solution just yet, but isolated/scattered POPs still seem a good bet
either way. The ongoing theme will continue where it`s near
impossible to pick out a completely dry day, but there are no
washout days either. Will keep diurnal temp ranges rather narrow,
with above normal nighttime mins, and daytime highs near or below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Conditions will continue to deteriorate early this morning at KBWG
as low-level moisture works in.  Expect IFR cigs and MVFR to
high-end IFR vsbys to prevail through the mid-morning hours before
conditions improve through this afternoon.  There may be a few
showers or a storm around at the beginning of the period before
activity quickly shifts east over the next few hours.

KLEX and KSDF will be on the edge of the better low-level moisture.
Expect some light BR/HZ under the upper-level cloud shield early
this morning.  KLEX may see a shower or thunderstorm later this
morning into early this afternoon, but main coverage should stay
just to the south of the terminal so will not go with anything more
than VCSH at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050519
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Forecast remains on track for this evening and overnight. Currently
the area is shower/storm free as convection is confined south of the
KY border. As upper level wave begins to pivot to the east/northeast
later tonight, showers and storms will once again spread back into
southern KY and the Lake Cumberland region.

Otherwise, plan on partly to mostly cloudy skies thanks to
debris/anvil clouds moving overhead. This should act to limit
widespread fog and also a day of drying for most will certainly help
as well.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Conditions will continue to deteriorate early this morning at KBWG
as low-level moisture works in.  Expect IFR cigs and MVFR to
high-end IFR vsbys to prevail through the mid-morning hours before
conditions improve through this afternoon.  There may be a few
showers or a storm around at the beginning of the period before
activity quickly shifts east over the next few hours.

KLEX and KSDF will be on the edge of the better low-level moisture.
Expect some light BR/HZ under the upper-level cloud shield early
this morning.  KLEX may see a shower or thunderstorm later this
morning into early this afternoon, but main coverage should stay
just to the south of the terminal so will not go with anything more
than VCSH at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050519
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Forecast remains on track for this evening and overnight. Currently
the area is shower/storm free as convection is confined south of the
KY border. As upper level wave begins to pivot to the east/northeast
later tonight, showers and storms will once again spread back into
southern KY and the Lake Cumberland region.

Otherwise, plan on partly to mostly cloudy skies thanks to
debris/anvil clouds moving overhead. This should act to limit
widespread fog and also a day of drying for most will certainly help
as well.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Conditions will continue to deteriorate early this morning at KBWG
as low-level moisture works in.  Expect IFR cigs and MVFR to
high-end IFR vsbys to prevail through the mid-morning hours before
conditions improve through this afternoon.  There may be a few
showers or a storm around at the beginning of the period before
activity quickly shifts east over the next few hours.

KLEX and KSDF will be on the edge of the better low-level moisture.
Expect some light BR/HZ under the upper-level cloud shield early
this morning.  KLEX may see a shower or thunderstorm later this
morning into early this afternoon, but main coverage should stay
just to the south of the terminal so will not go with anything more
than VCSH at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050519
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Forecast remains on track for this evening and overnight. Currently
the area is shower/storm free as convection is confined south of the
KY border. As upper level wave begins to pivot to the east/northeast
later tonight, showers and storms will once again spread back into
southern KY and the Lake Cumberland region.

Otherwise, plan on partly to mostly cloudy skies thanks to
debris/anvil clouds moving overhead. This should act to limit
widespread fog and also a day of drying for most will certainly help
as well.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Conditions will continue to deteriorate early this morning at KBWG
as low-level moisture works in.  Expect IFR cigs and MVFR to
high-end IFR vsbys to prevail through the mid-morning hours before
conditions improve through this afternoon.  There may be a few
showers or a storm around at the beginning of the period before
activity quickly shifts east over the next few hours.

KLEX and KSDF will be on the edge of the better low-level moisture.
Expect some light BR/HZ under the upper-level cloud shield early
this morning.  KLEX may see a shower or thunderstorm later this
morning into early this afternoon, but main coverage should stay
just to the south of the terminal so will not go with anything more
than VCSH at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050519
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Forecast remains on track for this evening and overnight. Currently
the area is shower/storm free as convection is confined south of the
KY border. As upper level wave begins to pivot to the east/northeast
later tonight, showers and storms will once again spread back into
southern KY and the Lake Cumberland region.

Otherwise, plan on partly to mostly cloudy skies thanks to
debris/anvil clouds moving overhead. This should act to limit
widespread fog and also a day of drying for most will certainly help
as well.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2015

Conditions will continue to deteriorate early this morning at KBWG
as low-level moisture works in.  Expect IFR cigs and MVFR to
high-end IFR vsbys to prevail through the mid-morning hours before
conditions improve through this afternoon.  There may be a few
showers or a storm around at the beginning of the period before
activity quickly shifts east over the next few hours.

KLEX and KSDF will be on the edge of the better low-level moisture.
Expect some light BR/HZ under the upper-level cloud shield early
this morning.  KLEX may see a shower or thunderstorm later this
morning into early this afternoon, but main coverage should stay
just to the south of the terminal so will not go with anything more
than VCSH at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KYZ066-067-075>078-
     081-082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LOTS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. FIGURE ON AT LEAST IFR FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO WIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SITES DIP BACK TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE LATE EVENING AGAIN...BUT DID NOT ADDRESS THAT SO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LOTS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. FIGURE ON AT LEAST IFR FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO WIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SITES DIP BACK TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE LATE EVENING AGAIN...BUT DID NOT ADDRESS THAT SO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LOTS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. FIGURE ON AT LEAST IFR FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO WIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SITES DIP BACK TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE LATE EVENING AGAIN...BUT DID NOT ADDRESS THAT SO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LOTS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. FIGURE ON AT LEAST IFR FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO WIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SITES DIP BACK TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE LATE EVENING AGAIN...BUT DID NOT ADDRESS THAT SO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LOTS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. FIGURE ON AT LEAST IFR FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO WIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SITES DIP BACK TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE LATE EVENING AGAIN...BUT DID NOT ADDRESS THAT SO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050452
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LOTS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. FIGURE ON AT LEAST IFR FOG IN MOST LOCATIONS
BY MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH CLOUDS AND NO WIND. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE SUNDAY...SO MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING. MAY SEE SOME SITES DIP BACK TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THE LATE EVENING AGAIN...BUT DID NOT ADDRESS THAT SO LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050316 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050316 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1116 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS. HAVE
ACCOUNTED FOR BETTER COVERAGE WEST OF I-75 THAT IS ONGOING. THE
MOSAIC RADAR REVEALS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION STILL PIVOTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF TENNESSEE AND THE LATEST HIGHER
RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
DIMINISHING TREND TO THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE BRINGING IN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH WILL FOREGO ANY ADDED HEADLINES
FOR NOW AS THE MORE SUSTAINED HEAVIER CONVECTION LOOKS TO STAY
MAINLY ACROSS TENNESSEE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 050038 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ISOLATED CONVECTION IS SHRINKING IN COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS OUR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE
MOVEMENT...SOME OF THE CELLS ARE PUTTING DOWN SOME HEAVY
LOCALIZED RAINFALL. THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE WILL
WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY IS THEN
EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHEN FORCING BEGINS MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
HAVE TIMED THESE HIGHER POPS A BIT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY...BASED
ON A BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE OVERNIGHT...AS ISOLATED CONVECTION WINDS DOWN AND
LOWER CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CEILINGS WILL THEN LOWER FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SME TO PBX. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KLMK 050016
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
816 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 815 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Forecast remains on track for this evening and overnight. Currently
the area is shower/storm free as convection is confined south of the
KY border. As upper level wave begins to pivot to the east/northeast
later tonight, showers and storms will once again spread back into
southern KY and the Lake Cumberland region.

Otherwise, plan on partly to mostly cloudy skies thanks to
debris/anvil clouds moving overhead. This should act to limit
widespread fog and also a day of drying for most will certainly help
as well.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Main concern is ceilings/visibilities at BWG overnight into early
Sunday morning as a southern stream weather system approaches. With
ample low level moisture and light winds expected, there`s above
average confidence for IFR conditions to develop around 09z.
Ceilings may hold in the 500 to 1000 ft range through 14z.
Visibilities are more tricky as mid/high clouds streaming overhead
may preclude more dense fog. Maintained current forecast of 2-3 sm
developing during the pre-dawn hours.

At LEX/SDF, slightly drier air and a day of drying as well should
keep dense fog potential less likely. Some patchy light fog possible
at LEX though. For Sunday, plan on easterly flow as wave of low
pressure moves southeast of the area. Few to scattered VFR cumulus
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KPAH 042346
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A LARGE SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL SITES TO START
THE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE A GIVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUD
COVER IS IN DOUBT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT WOULD PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT IN THAT EVOLUTION...SO WILL
EMPHASIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER VFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCGI AND KPAH WHERE IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTH
WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 042346
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A LARGE SHIELD OF CIRROSTRATUS HAS SPREAD OVER ALL SITES TO START
THE PERIOD...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF
THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS ARE A GIVEN THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUD
COVER IS IN DOUBT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT WOULD PREVENT
FOG FORMATION. NOT AT ALL CONFIDENT IN THAT EVOLUTION...SO WILL
EMPHASIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LOWER VFR CEILINGS...ESPECIALLY
AT KCGI AND KPAH WHERE IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR BY MID-MORNING WITH A LIGHT SOUTH
WIND DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Main concern is ceilings/visibilities at BWG overnight into early
Sunday morning as a southern stream weather system approaches. With
ample low level moisture and light winds expected, there`s above
average confidence for IFR conditions to develop around 09z.
Ceilings may hold in the 500 to 1000 ft range through 14z.
Visibilities are more tricky as mid/high clouds streaming overhead
may preclude more dense fog. Maintained current forecast of 2-3 sm
developing during the pre-dawn hours.

At LEX/SDF, slightly drier air and a day of drying as well should
keep dense fog potential less likely. Some patchy light fog possible
at LEX though. For Sunday, plan on easterly flow as wave of low
pressure moves southeast of the area. Few to scattered VFR cumulus
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 042313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Main concern is ceilings/visibilities at BWG overnight into early
Sunday morning as a southern stream weather system approaches. With
ample low level moisture and light winds expected, there`s above
average confidence for IFR conditions to develop around 09z.
Ceilings may hold in the 500 to 1000 ft range through 14z.
Visibilities are more tricky as mid/high clouds streaming overhead
may preclude more dense fog. Maintained current forecast of 2-3 sm
developing during the pre-dawn hours.

At LEX/SDF, slightly drier air and a day of drying as well should
keep dense fog potential less likely. Some patchy light fog possible
at LEX though. For Sunday, plan on easterly flow as wave of low
pressure moves southeast of the area. Few to scattered VFR cumulus
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 042313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Main concern is ceilings/visibilities at BWG overnight into early
Sunday morning as a southern stream weather system approaches. With
ample low level moisture and light winds expected, there`s above
average confidence for IFR conditions to develop around 09z.
Ceilings may hold in the 500 to 1000 ft range through 14z.
Visibilities are more tricky as mid/high clouds streaming overhead
may preclude more dense fog. Maintained current forecast of 2-3 sm
developing during the pre-dawn hours.

At LEX/SDF, slightly drier air and a day of drying as well should
keep dense fog potential less likely. Some patchy light fog possible
at LEX though. For Sunday, plan on easterly flow as wave of low
pressure moves southeast of the area. Few to scattered VFR cumulus
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 042313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Main concern is ceilings/visibilities at BWG overnight into early
Sunday morning as a southern stream weather system approaches. With
ample low level moisture and light winds expected, there`s above
average confidence for IFR conditions to develop around 09z.
Ceilings may hold in the 500 to 1000 ft range through 14z.
Visibilities are more tricky as mid/high clouds streaming overhead
may preclude more dense fog. Maintained current forecast of 2-3 sm
developing during the pre-dawn hours.

At LEX/SDF, slightly drier air and a day of drying as well should
keep dense fog potential less likely. Some patchy light fog possible
at LEX though. For Sunday, plan on easterly flow as wave of low
pressure moves southeast of the area. Few to scattered VFR cumulus
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT






000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 041951
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
351 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION AND MERGING WITH A
TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. A
SFC BOUNDARY WILL ALSO APPROACH THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL
KEEP THE BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS GENERALLY STALLED OUT OVER THE
OH VALLEY REGION OR ONLY SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO EASTERN KY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN UNSETTLED AND AT TIMES WET WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KY. POPS WILL HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL FLAVOR FOR
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH WITH THE FRONT STALLING OUT IN THE
VICINITY...CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE AT MIDWEEK WHEN THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO START TO STALL NEAR THE OH RIVER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN CLOSE TO...IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMALS...FOR HIGHS
AND NEAR NORMAL FOR LOWS. TEMPERATURES MAY WARM A BIT AT THE THE
PERIOD...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 041940
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH SITES. COULD BE MVFR CIGS FOR AWHILE THIS
PM... AND POSSIBLY COULD SEE IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 041940
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TIME FRAME...AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW
FROM CLOSE TO THE KY/TN BORDER WEST THROUGH THE MO BOOTHEEL WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT GRADUALLY
WASHES OUT. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGH PRESSURE BE BE SLOWLY BUILDING
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHC POPS DOWN CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SUNDAY JUST IN
CASE AN ISOLATED STORM MAKES IT NORTH OF THE TN BORDER...BUT
EXPECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN PRECIP FREE FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND WARMER AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH MOS LOCATIONS GETTING INTO THE
UPPER HALF OF THE 80S SUNDAY AND CLOSE TO 90 ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SO WILL NEED TO INCREASE NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHCS A
BIT AT TIME TIME. DIURNAL NATURE OF THE CHCS AND WEAK SHEAR VALUES
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH INTO TUE...THOUGH
A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE LEVEL ON INSTABILITY THAT CAN BE GENERATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PATTERN WILL LARGELY BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE...
WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MILDER AND WETTER THAN NORMAL PATTERN THUS
FAR THIS SUMMER. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BETTER THAN AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE GIVEN GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES TO LOWER THAN AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MUCH MORE MODEL VARIABILITY.

BY MID WEEK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WAIVER ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE
RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IT STANDS TO REASON THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
UNFORTUNATELY...MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AS TO THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND HOW LONG IT TAKES THE
FRONT TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE END RESULT
IS A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF
THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY NEXT WEEKEND...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED
STATES WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ACT TO SHIFT THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE IMMEDIATE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOCALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 64.

A CONTINUATION OF THE MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL START
THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. HIGHS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 AS WARMER AIR ALOFT BUILDS NORTHWARD. LOWS WILL WARM
FROM THE UPPER 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS INTO THE LOWER 70S
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
SOUTH OF THE KCGI/KPAH SITES. COULD BE MVFR CIGS FOR AWHILE THIS
PM... AND POSSIBLY COULD SEE IFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOP IN THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT/VARIABLE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP



000
FXUS63 KLMK 041910
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Ceilings have finally lifted to VFR at all sites early this
afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and
much of the evening hours. Drier air will remain in place over SDF
so VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

More moisture will remain in place for LEX and particularly BWG. A
few showers may affect BWG this afternoon, so have added in VCSH.
However, the showers may stay just to the south of the airport. Any
activity should end by evening. Some light fog looks to develop at
both these sites again tonight. LEX should have a bit more dry air
working in, so have kept ceilings higher. BWG will have calm winds
and plenty of low level moisture, so think conditions could be
similar to this morning with IFR ceilings and visibilities. Once
again, conditions will improve by mid to late morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 041910
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
310 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 307 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Scattered showers have developed this afternoon across mainly south
central KY near the stalled frontal boundary. These showers should
diminish early this evening with just isolated coverage expected
through much of the evening hours. Thus, expect that pretty much all
of the forecast area will have only a 20% or less chance for rain
around time for fireworks celebrations tonight. Temperatures will
be in the mid to upper 70s by sunset.

An upper level trough will move through the region tonight and
Sunday, continuing to slowly shift eastward Sunday night. Moisture
will increase again on the eastern side of this trough tonight with
showers and storms developing again. Storm coverage will increase
late tonight into tomorrow across mainly south and east central
Kentucky. The best chances for showers and storms will be around and
just north of the Lake Cumberland area. However, short term and
mesoscale models do differ a bit in how far east the best storm
coverage will be. It could end up that the higher coverage of storms
is just to the east of the forecast area. These showers and storms
will be efficient rain producers with precipitable water values
rising to around 1.8". If training does occur, some minor flooding
will be possible. However, given model differences, confidence in
widespread problems is low, so will hold off on headlines for now.
Rain will move off to the east tomorrow night with dry conditions
expected for much of the night.

There is the potential for some fog tonight if clouds do clear.
Think this would mainly be across southern IN, similar to this
morning. Lows the next two mornings will range from the mid 60s to
around 70. Highs will be tricky tomorrow and depend on rain
coverage. Highest temps will be across southern IN and along the
Ohio River in the mid 80s. Lowest temps will be in east central KY
where highs may top out only in the upper 70s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

For the start of the work week, we`ll have an upper low exiting the
Ohio Valley leaving us in a brief relatively subsident region within
the overall pattern.  This will result in meager precip chances for
Monday...20-30% at best.  Tuesday a frontal boundary from a low
pressure system traversing southern Canada will move into the
Midwest becoming draped over the Ohio Valley through Wed
night/Thurs.  A wet setup once again looks likely for the middle of
the coming week with multiple upper level shortwaves riding along
the boundary providing several rounds of showers/storms.  This setup
has the potential to pose flooding issues given the very wet end of
June/beginning of July that we`ve already experienced.  The threat
for severe wx looks uncertain and will depend on boundary location
and available instability.  We may have an opportunity to build some
instability Mon/early Tue with low precip chances, some sunshine,
and highs solidly in the 80s area wide.  Highs for Wed/Thurs will
drop back into the upper 70s/lower 80s.  Low temps through mid week
will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

For the latter half of the week, it is unclear whether a southern
ridge will build over the southeast U.S. and into the Ohio Valley
pushing the boundary and active westerly flow north (12Z GFS/GFS
ensembles) or if the southern ridging will stay suppressed resulting
in a continued active, rainy pattern (12Z Euro).  It could be a very
wet first couple weeks of July if the Euro soln plays out.  Have
trended the forecast toward the GFS/GFS ensembles going a little
drier (20-30% precip chances) for the end of the week.  Also, went
with the resultant warmer temps associated with the better ridging.
This would mean high temps back into the upper 80s/lower 90s by
Fri/Sat.  However, given the uncertainty of the pattern, forecast
confidence is low beyond Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2015

Ceilings have finally lifted to VFR at all sites early this
afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon and
much of the evening hours. Drier air will remain in place over SDF
so VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

More moisture will remain in place for LEX and particularly BWG. A
few showers may affect BWG this afternoon, so have added in VCSH.
However, the showers may stay just to the south of the airport. Any
activity should end by evening. Some light fog looks to develop at
both these sites again tonight. LEX should have a bit more dry air
working in, so have kept ceilings higher. BWG will have calm winds
and plenty of low level moisture, so think conditions could be
similar to this morning with IFR ceilings and visibilities. Once
again, conditions will improve by mid to late morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 041857
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
PRESENTLY...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY WIND DOWN AS INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A GOOD LULL FOR OUTDOOR
FESTIVITIES THIS EVENING.

HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ARKANSAS AND WESTERN TENNESSEE
WILL SLOWLY ROTATE EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL
SPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT EXPECTED TRACK...THERE
WILL BE DECENT GRADIENT IN POPS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...DROPPING OFF AS YOU HEAD NORTHWEST TOWARDS LEXINGTON.
GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT AND MOISTURE IN PLACE...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AREN`T THAT GREAT...SO
THUNDER MAY NOT OCCUR...BUT LEFT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS DOWN ON SUNDAY.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS WAVE SHOULD FINALLY MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MAY KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...JUST EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY CONTAIN SOME FAIRLY
DECENT DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NORTH
WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER
KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED.

THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND DEFINITION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...SO THAT
OUR POP WILL BE LOWER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REALIZING THIS DRYING
ALOFT...AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POP TODAY. WITHOUT ANY ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY
REDUCED...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED
8 AM EXPIRATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN OUR POP ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED. YET AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DRAPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS
KENTUCKY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING ONCE
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPS AT
NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMROROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041759
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

UPDATED TO LOWER THUNDER CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. AN ISOLATED
STRIKE OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...JUST EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...WHICH MAY CONTAIN SOME FAIRLY
DECENT DOWNPOURS GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A LULL THIS EVENING BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES NORTH
WITH RAIN SPREADING BACK IN FROM THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MADE SOME UPDATES TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT...BASED ON
LATEST MODEL RUNS HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS...AND A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS PERSISTED SOUTH OF THE FRONT OVER
KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERED.

THE BULK OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS WEEKEND...BUT A
SMALL PIECE OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS AN UPPER LOW.
MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS
TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT WILL LOSE MOMENTUM AND DEFINITION AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEPARTS. ENOUGH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...SO THAT
OUR POP WILL BE LOWER FOR MUCH OF TODAY. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
AREA WILL HAVE THE MOST DIFFICULT TIME REALIZING THIS DRYING
ALOFT...AND WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POP TODAY. WITHOUT ANY ONGOING
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL GREATLY
REDUCED...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED BEFORE ITS SCHEDULED
8 AM EXPIRATION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NE TOWARD KY TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND BRING AN INCREASE IN OUR POP ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
DEPARTS...THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS TO BECOME MORE ZONALLY
ORIENTED. YET AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ALLOWING FOR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
DRAPE ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS
KENTUCKY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
TIME...BUT FOR NOW HAVE ALLOWED FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS SHIFTING ONCE
AGAIN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD INCLUDES CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STRONG STORMS APPEARS TO BE ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS A BETTER DEFINED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND HELPS STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVER JET. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MILD TEMPS AT
NIGHT DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER...LIMITING
DIURNAL RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE
PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING CIGS BACK DOWN BELOW
1000 FEET AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT. CIGS WILL LIFT AGAIN BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO VFR. HOWEVER...PERIODS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMROROW FOR MOST OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS



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