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000
FXUS63 KLMK 051012
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
612 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 612 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Clouds in association with an upper low moving overhead will pass
over the airports today. Ceilings will start out below fuel
alternate at SDF and LEX before slowly improving to low-end VFR by
this afternoon. Bases probably won`t be quite as low at BWG but
there will still be the possibility of MVFR stratocu there this
morning.

Winds will come in from the northwest and could get just a little
frisky at times, gusting into the 15-20kt range.

A batch of light rain showers will move through during the first few
hours of the TAF period, especially at LEX and SDF. Additional
scattered shower development will be possible around LEX this
afternoon and early evening.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13



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000
FXUS63 KJKL 050825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEAMPLIFYING OF THE
INITIAL BLOCKY PATTERN AS A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS OVER THE CONUS
WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID ATLANTIC ONE WILL LOSE
ITS INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND AS IT
STARTS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW HEIGHT RISES AND RIDGING
TO SPREAD INTO THE BLUEGRASS STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
WILL BE LIMITED FOR OUR PART OF THE REGION BY ADDITIONAL
TROUGHINESS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE AREA
PRIMED FOR WEAK SHORT WAVES TO PASS OVERHEAD IN FAIRLY FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW. IN GENERAL...THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE GREAT
LAKES TROUGH THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND WILL BE DAMPENED OUT VIA
THE BLEND FOR GRIDDED FORECAST PURPOSES. MEANWHILE...FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK THE WESTERN
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND OPEN UP ALLOWING BITS OF
ITS ENERGY TO SLIP EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NOW WEAKENING SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS ACTION
IS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF KENTUCKY AND MORE BOUTS OF
ENERGY MOVING OVER OUR CWA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE PATTERN THEN
CONTINUES ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ENDING UP
WITH TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA AND FLATTER...MORE ZONAL...
HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH ALONG WITH LIMITED PACKETS OF ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. GIVEN THE COMPLICATIONS OF THIS EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL STICK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED MODEL SOLUTION
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS THE STACKED LOW TO OUR EAST LOSES
ITS INFLUENCE. AS PART OF THIS PROCESS...A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
PASSES THROUGH KENTUCKY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INITIALLY AND THEN THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES
THAT AFTERNOON. IN FACT...ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG GIVEN MODERATE CAPE...LOW
LIS...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIP
SOUTH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
HANG UP OVER EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE START THE NEW WEEK. WITH
THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE ANTICIPATED. ON SUNDAY
THE FRONT AND PCPN WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DO BETTER FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH WITH MID AND
UPPER 70S ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FUEL THE
INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH ANY
SHOWERS DURING THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AS FOR THE CR INIT...MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES
EACH NIGHT ANTICIPATING MINIMAL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCES ASIDE
FROM SATURDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. ALSO TWEAKED THE POPS FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE LATEST
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS



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000
FXUS63 KPAH 050745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

A deep upper level low will move from the Ohio Valley into the
southeastern U.S. today. Deep cyclonic northerly flow will result
in cooler than normal temperatures today. A substantial amount of
cloud cover is also expected across the eastern half of the area,
including much of southwest Indiana, southeast Illinois, and the
Pennyrile region of western Kentucky. Sunshine should be more
predominant further west. This will result in a rather large
temperature gradient this afternoon, as high temperatures range
from the lower 60s in southwest Indiana and the Kentucky Pennyrile
to the lower 70s across the Missouri Ozarks.

In the wake of the departing low, a large ridge of high pressure
will migrate eastward from the Plains through late week. This will
result in dry weather and more sunshine Friday and during much of
Saturday. By late Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, the ridge
will be suppressed to the south by a deepening low over southeast
Canada. A cold front is forecast to drop south into the area by
Saturday night, which will bring the chance of showers and
thunderstorms back to northern and eastern portions of the area
late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

A moderating trend is expected through the short term. Highs will
warm back into the 70s on Friday and then the lower 80s by Saturday.
Lows will warm from the 40s tonight into the 50s Friday night, and
then near 60 Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

An unsettled period is forecast. Model preference includes more
weight given to the ECE, minor GFS incorporation Sun/Mon. For
Tuesday through Wednesday relied more upon the ECM/GEFS and some GEM
incorporation. At the beginning of the period the models and their
ensemble mean solutions are in decent agreement based on 00z/12z
data. However as the h5 low at the beginning of the period over the
west U.S. heads east, it becomes increasingly unclear how the
pattern will evolve.

A surface front is forecast to be somewhere across our CWFA Sunday
through early Monday. After that, it`s forecast to lift NE and we
warm sector through Wednesday. For Sunday and Sunday night, best
chance PoPs for convection will be over northern areas. For Monday
through Monday night, the focus will be increasing PoPs from the
west as upper level energy approaches. For Tuesday through
Wednesday, chance PoPs for convection will continue given the active
pattern and available moisture. It will be warm and seasonably humid
through the period. Used an operational/ensemble MOS blend for temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu May 5 2016

As an upper low drops south across the Ohio Valley into the
southeastern U.S. today, more cloud cover is anticipated across
the eastern terminals, where broken to overcast VFR ceilings could
teeter with MVFR levels by mid to late morning. Further west, a
period of VFR ceilings is expected at KPAH and perhaps KCGI around
midday, but clouds should largely be scattered through much of
the day. Northerly winds will pick up to 10 to 15 knots with gusts
into the 20s. Winds should subside Thursday evening as skies
clear.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050704
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
304 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Anomalous closed upper low very close to Cincinnati continues to
dive SSE into eastern Kentucky, with a smattering of showers across
southern Indiana. Main challenge through tonight is the evolution of
POPs with the continued battle between cold pool aloft and mid-level
drying.

Either way, expect unseasonably cool temps and plenty of cloud cover
today into this evening. High chance POPs will be focused mainly on
the morning as the current batch of showers moves through. Have
followed cooler NAM MOS for max temps, as abundant cloud cover will
really inhibit any recovery this afternoon. Another weaker vort
pinwheeling around the low could spark a few more showers late this
afternoon into this evening, but will limit that to a slight chance
in our eastern counties.

Skies will clear late this evening and Friday looks like the pick of
the week with upper ridging trying to build in from the west. After
a cool start, expect plenty of sunshine and temps recovering to near
normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

Fairly active and progressive pattern shaping up for the long term,
as we will transition from a NW flow pattern over the weekend to a
mean trof over the Plains and weak ridging over the Southeast CONUS
for much of next week. Forecast confidence, especially in the
specifics and timing, is low to moderate even on Saturday.

A weak impulse late Friday night and Saturday will bring at least
clouds, and perhaps a few showers. Forcing aloft appears weak, as
does the surface reflection, but too much model agreement to
discount. Thus will carry slight chance POPs, mainly across the
Bluegrass region.

Later Saturday a stronger wave dives into the Great Lakes, pushing a
surface cold front southward across Indiana. Exactly when and how
far south this boundary fires on Saturday afternoon will be crucial,
and the GFS/ECMWF both agree on getting precip as far south as the I-
64 corridor by 00Z Sunday, but it`s worth noting that the NAM12 is
noticeably slower, and holds off until later in the evening. Will
favor the warmer NAM MOS for Sat highs as temps tend to overachieve
in this pre-frontal regime. This will support marginal instability
in the presence of enough deep-layer shear to fuel a few strong
storms. This system certainly bears watch for timing, especially
relative to any outdoor plans late Sat afternoon into the evening.

Carried likely POPs Saturday night as showers and storms should
spread south across most of the area. Sunday is a transitional day
as the flow aloft becomes more southwesterly, heralding a more humid
and unsettled pattern. Expect rounds of showers and storms, but any
individual impulses are too difficult to time this far out.
Therefore POPs for any given period are limited to chance, and no
day can yet be pegged as a washout. Temps will run on the high side
of climo, especially by night with a humid air mass and ample cloud
cover.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

An area of light rain associated with an upper low sinking from
Indiana into Kentucky will move through the TAF sites early this
morning, especially SDF and LEX. Model data and upstream obs support
a chance of MVFR ceilings for a few hours around dawn.

Sratocu ceilings will very slowly rise today, becoming low-end VFR
by afternoon. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening but should not be significant for aviation.

Winds during the daylight hours today will come in from the
northwest, possibly gusting to 15-20kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050659
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS DRY AS ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS
SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A VORT MAX IS
DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING...AND LIKELY CLIP THE COUNTIES IN THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY...OR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY POPS AS THIS ACTIVITY DROPS SOUTH...BUT MAY DECIDE TO GO UP
TO CATEGORICAL IF SHOWERS HOLD TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY.
AS THE VORT MAX EXITS SOUTH THIS MORNING...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND WE MAY SEE SOME UPSLOPE SHOWERS DEVELOP
ON THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE DEPARTING VORT MAX. WITH 850MB TEMPS
GETTING CLOSE TO -1C THIS MORNING...IT WOULD BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
SNOW FLAKES ON BLACK MOUNTAIN. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN SHIFT SOUTH BY
MIDDAY.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTH FROM OHIO. THIS TIME AROUND...IT LOOKS LIKE
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SET TO BE IMPACTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE MUCH HIGHER WITH POPS AS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
ABUNDANT. WE ALSO HAVE UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODELS HAD INDICATED SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
YESTERDAY...TODAYS RUNS HAVE LOOKED MUCH LESS FAVORABLE...SO
DESPITE THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS...WILL MAINTAIN NO THUNDER. IF WE
WERE TO GET SOME STORMS...HAIL WOULD BE A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY WITH
THE LOW FREEZING LEVELS. BY TONIGHT...THE WAVE WILL EXIT
SOUTH...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME
LOW POPS FOR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. FINALLY...ON
FRIDAY...ONE LAST WAVE LOOKS TO DROP SOUTH WITH A POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY COOL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WITH
TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF AROUND 40 THIS MORNING...HAVE CUT BACK
HIGHS FOR TODAY BASICALLY BACK INTO THE LOW 50S...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW LOCATIONS FAILING TO CRACK 50...ESPECIALLY
ON THE RIDGES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP BACK INTO THE 40S...BUT CLOUD
COVER SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM GOING TOO MUCH LOWER THAN HIGHS
TODAY. ON FRIDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM SLIGHTLY ALLOWING
FOR A SLIGHTLY MILDER DAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S.
STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT
LOWER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM. INCREASED POPS
QUITE A BIT AND MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF JACKSON AND HAZARD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVEN IMPACT AREAS
A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
WITH SOME CLEARING COMING OVER THE AREA. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS
ALREADY REACHED 36...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH JUST ABOUT TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. CERTAINLY A CHILLY MORNING OUT THERE. THIS
COLD START...COMBINED WITH THE DAMP AND CLOUDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR SOME OF THE AREA FOR
THE UPCOMING DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHOWERS HAVE EXITED TO THE SOUTH WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NEXT WAVE IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA/SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WILL SPREAD SHOWERS
BACK INTO THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 5 AM. INCREASED POPS
QUITE A BIT AND MAY NEED TO GO FURTHER AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
EXPAND. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A DAMP MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF JACKSON AND HAZARD. A FEW SHOWERS COULD EVEN IMPACT AREAS
A BIT FARTHER NORTHEAST. ALSO TWEAKED TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT
WITH SOME CLEARING COMING OVER THE AREA. BLACK MOUNTAIN HAS
ALREADY REACHED 36...WITH AREAS IN THE NORTH JUST ABOUT TO DIP
INTO THE UPPER 30S. CERTAINLY A CHILLY MORNING OUT THERE. THIS
COLD START...COMBINED WITH THE DAMP AND CLOUDY WEATHER FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY MAY KEEP HIGHS IN THE 40S FOR SOME OF THE AREA FOR
THE UPCOMING DAY. WILL BE TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT THIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE PRESENTLY...WE WILL SEE CIGS
START TO COME DOWN TOWARDS DAYBREAK...AS A UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS
MAINLY JUST MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL GO THIS
ROUTE IN THE TAFS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY...WITH A
BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
WAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH MORE RAIN SHOWERS AND CIGS AGAIN DROPPING BACK TO
MVFR. UPSLOPE FLOW MAY KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050511
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peek through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

An area of light rain associated with an upper low sinking from
Indiana into Kentucky will move through the TAF sites early this
morning, especially SDF and LEX. Model data and upstream obs support
a chance of MVFR ceilings for a few hours around dawn.

Sratocu ceilings will very slowly rise today, becoming low-end VFR
by afternoon. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening but should not be significant for aviation.

Winds during the daylight hours today will come in from the
northwest, possibly gusting to 15-20kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050511
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
111 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peek through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 110 AM EDT Thu May 5 2016

An area of light rain associated with an upper low sinking from
Indiana into Kentucky will move through the TAF sites early this
morning, especially SDF and LEX. Model data and upstream obs support
a chance of MVFR ceilings for a few hours around dawn.

Sratocu ceilings will very slowly rise today, becoming low-end VFR
by afternoon. A few showers will be possible this afternoon and
evening but should not be significant for aviation.

Winds during the daylight hours today will come in from the
northwest, possibly gusting to 15-20kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN
TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET
IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE
INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1100 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS. THESE HAVE BECOME MORE SHALLOW IN NATURE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT THIS POINT. THE
LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
ROTATING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAWN. THIS MAY BE A BIT ON
THE FAST-SIDE...SO HAVE STUCK WITH THE INHERITED FORECAST TIMING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID 40S IN PLACES
ALREADY...WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. CLOUDS LOOK TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN FROM INDIANA...SO AROUND
40 DEGREES STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A LOW. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED SOME
PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
HOLES IN THE CLOUD COVER. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN
TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET
IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE
INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050201
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
900 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Latest radar mosaics indicate some light echoes developing in the
upper Wabash Valley. The strong upper-level low over northern
Indiana will move slowly south along the Indiana/Ohio border
overnight. The light precip on radar should move south in tandem
with the upper low, passing across southwest IN and the Wabash
Valley overnight. Some precip could eventually brush eastern parts
of the Pennyrile region of west KY. Will add slight chance pops for
the aforementioned areas overnight. Most places should not measure.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Most of the near term will be fairly benign when come to the
sensible weather across the quad state region. However, an
unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from
the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in
areas east of the MS River on Thursday. Some locations over
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western KY may
struggle to reach 60 degrees Thu afternoon. Friday looks much
nicer area wide as the upper low shifts east to the Eastern
Seaboard allowing a ridge to build in from the west. After chilly
lows in the mid 40s Friday morning, daytime readings should climb
rapidly into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Models are in decent agreement showing surface low pressure over the
central Plains and a cold front sliding south into the PAH forecast
area Saturday night, with the front bisecting our area by 12z
Sunday. Models vary a little on just how far south the front will
get, but they do agree in keeping precipitation chances mainly north
of the front Saturday night into Sunday night. This results in most
of our southern counties remaining dry Saturday night into Sunday
evening. Went with good chances of showers and thunderstorms across
southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and much of southern Illinois
Saturday night, with chances pivoting to include southeast Missouri
by Sunday night.

For early in the work week, models show the surface low meandering
over the Central Plains finally moving slowly east as an upper level
ridge over our region weakens and slides east.  Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be fairly low on Monday, then increase
significantly Monday night as the low moves a little closer.  Models
indicate our best precipitation chances and most significant
rainfall amounts will be late Monday night into Tuesday night.  By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, models diverge on timing and track of
the low, with the ECMWF faster and farther north than the GFS.  The
ECMWF solution would give us dry conditions for Wednesday, while the
GFS solution keeps chances of showers and storms in our area through
the day. Based on the strength and slow movement of the
aforementioned upper level ridge, preference has been to go with the
slower solutions, so continued chances of showers and storms into
Wednesday.

Southwest flow south of the front will keep us unseasonably warm
Saturday into Saturday night, with highs Saturday in the lower 80s
and lows Saturday night in the 55 to 60 degree range.  With the
front bisecting our area Sunday, our temperature range will be wider
with highs in the lower 70s north to lower 80s southwest. With the
front in our region and additional clouds and rain for the first
half of the week, temperatures will be fairly consistent, with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Upper Low will be dropping south across Ohio valley tonight. As it
does, trajectories draw low VFR clouds into/across terminals.
These will be especially diurnally enhanced, so despite some
scattering tonight, expect cigs to develop again tmrw from mid am
to mid pm. Northerlies likewise will enhance/peak with gusts
during the heating hours...and wane on either side of the
insolation curve.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 042356 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN
TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET
IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE
INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 042356 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...SPARKED FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
THIS LINE PUT DOWN QUITE A FEW INSTANCES OF PEA-SIZED HAIL AS WELL
AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. EXPECT THE WEAKENING
TREND TO CONTINUE AS LAPSE RATES BECOME LESS STEEP THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND THE WAVE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. WILL
HANG ONTO ISOLATED THUNDER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BEFORE LIKELY
ELIMINATING IT FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. UPDATES WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT OFF TO
THE EAST IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. CONDITIONS COULD DROP DOWN
TEMPORARILY TO IFR WITHIN THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THIS LINE EXITS...WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE SCARCE. SOME FOG MAY SET
IN ACROSS SOME OF THE VALLEYS THAT SAW RAINFALL EARLIER AND HAVE
INCLUDED AN MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION AT SME BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z.
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD KEEP THE FOG FROM BECOMING TOO DENSE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
AFTER 12Z THU. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042348
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
748 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Forecast was updated based on recent radar trends and cloud cover.
Initial wave that sparked a few lines of showers and storms has
since passed through the area. Add in waning daytime heating, and
most of the convection has dissipated. As a result, the threat for
small to marginally severe hail has ended. Expect a generally dry
evening outside a stray shower or two.

Another upper level wave will pivot into southern Indiana and
central Kentucky overnight which will be the forcing to spark
another round of light rain showers or sprinkles, along with
increased cloud cover. This along with steady northwest winds, may
act to keep temperatures up a bit higher than currently forecast,
but with such a cold air mass in place, will hold onto current
forecast right now.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042317
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
717 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042317
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
717 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 710 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Plan on VFR conditions this evening as first upper level wave has
passed through central Kentucky. Latest satellite imagery shows
diurnal strato-cu upstream, so some of this will dissipate after
00z. However, another upper level wave will swing into north-central
Kentucky late overnight into the first part of Thursday morning.
This will bring MVFR ceilings, likely just under fuel-alternate
levels, and the chance for sprinkles or light rain showers. This
would most likely impact SDF/LEX.

Expect the lower ceilings to persist through most of Thursday
morning, then improve to VFR by afternoon as the wave passes the
area. Winds will become gusty out of the northwest again with gusts
to near 20 kts likely.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042231
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Most of the near term will be fairly benign when come to the
sensible weather across the quad state region. However, an
unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from
the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in
areas east of the MS River on Thursday. Some locations over
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western KY may
struggle to reach 60 degrees Thu afternoon. Friday looks much
nicer area wide as the upper low shifts east to the Eastern
Seaboard allowing a ridge to build in from the west. After chilly
lows in the mid 40s Friday morning, daytime readings should climb
rapidly into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Models are in decent agreement showing surface low pressure over the
central Plains and a cold front sliding south into the PAH forecast
area Saturday night, with the front bisecting our area by 12z
Sunday. Models vary a little on just how far south the front will
get, but they do agree in keeping precipitation chances mainly north
of the front Saturday night into Sunday night. This results in most
of our southern counties remaining dry Saturday night into Sunday
evening. Went with good chances of showers and thunderstorms across
southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and much of southern Illinois
Saturday night, with chances pivoting to include southeast Missouri
by Sunday night.

For early in the work week, models show the surface low meandering
over the Central Plains finally moving slowly east as an upper level
ridge over our region weakens and slides east.  Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be fairly low on Monday, then increase
significantly Monday night as the low moves a little closer.  Models
indicate our best precipitation chances and most significant
rainfall amounts will be late Monday night into Tuesday night.  By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, models diverge on timing and track of
the low, with the ECMWF faster and farther north than the GFS.  The
ECMWF solution would give us dry conditions for Wednesday, while the
GFS solution keeps chances of showers and storms in our area through
the day. Based on the strength and slow movement of the
aforementioned upper level ridge, preference has been to go with the
slower solutions, so continued chances of showers and storms into
Wednesday.

Southwest flow south of the front will keep us unseasonably warm
Saturday into Saturday night, with highs Saturday in the lower 80s
and lows Saturday night in the 55 to 60 degree range.  With the
front bisecting our area Sunday, our temperature range will be wider
with highs in the lower 70s north to lower 80s southwest. With the
front in our region and additional clouds and rain for the first
half of the week, temperatures will be fairly consistent, with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Upper Low will be dropping south across Ohio valley tonight. As it
does, trajectories draw low VFR clouds into/across terminals.
These will be especially diurnally enhanced, so despite some
scattering tonight, expect cigs to develop again tmrw from mid am
to mid pm. Northerlies likewise will enhance/peak with gusts
during the heating hours...and wane on either side of the
insolation curve.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042231
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
531 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Most of the near term will be fairly benign when come to the
sensible weather across the quad state region. However, an
unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from
the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in
areas east of the MS River on Thursday. Some locations over
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western KY may
struggle to reach 60 degrees Thu afternoon. Friday looks much
nicer area wide as the upper low shifts east to the Eastern
Seaboard allowing a ridge to build in from the west. After chilly
lows in the mid 40s Friday morning, daytime readings should climb
rapidly into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Models are in decent agreement showing surface low pressure over the
central Plains and a cold front sliding south into the PAH forecast
area Saturday night, with the front bisecting our area by 12z
Sunday. Models vary a little on just how far south the front will
get, but they do agree in keeping precipitation chances mainly north
of the front Saturday night into Sunday night. This results in most
of our southern counties remaining dry Saturday night into Sunday
evening. Went with good chances of showers and thunderstorms across
southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and much of southern Illinois
Saturday night, with chances pivoting to include southeast Missouri
by Sunday night.

For early in the work week, models show the surface low meandering
over the Central Plains finally moving slowly east as an upper level
ridge over our region weakens and slides east.  Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be fairly low on Monday, then increase
significantly Monday night as the low moves a little closer.  Models
indicate our best precipitation chances and most significant
rainfall amounts will be late Monday night into Tuesday night.  By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, models diverge on timing and track of
the low, with the ECMWF faster and farther north than the GFS.  The
ECMWF solution would give us dry conditions for Wednesday, while the
GFS solution keeps chances of showers and storms in our area through
the day. Based on the strength and slow movement of the
aforementioned upper level ridge, preference has been to go with the
slower solutions, so continued chances of showers and storms into
Wednesday.

Southwest flow south of the front will keep us unseasonably warm
Saturday into Saturday night, with highs Saturday in the lower 80s
and lows Saturday night in the 55 to 60 degree range.  With the
front bisecting our area Sunday, our temperature range will be wider
with highs in the lower 70s north to lower 80s southwest. With the
front in our region and additional clouds and rain for the first
half of the week, temperatures will be fairly consistent, with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Upper Low will be dropping south across Ohio valley tonight. As it
does, trajectories draw low VFR clouds into/across terminals.
These will be especially diurnally enhanced, so despite some
scattering tonight, expect cigs to develop again tmrw from mid am
to mid pm. Northerlies likewise will enhance/peak with gusts
during the heating hours...and wane on either side of the
insolation curve.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042016
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Most of the near term will be fairly benign when come to the
sensible weather across the quad state region. However, an
unusually deep mid/upper level low dropping directly south from
the Great Lakes region will keep things rather cloudy and cool in
areas east of the MS River on Thursday. Some locations over
southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western KY may
struggle to reach 60 degrees Thu afternoon. Friday looks much
nicer area wide as the upper low shifts east to the Eastern
Seaboard allowing a ridge to build in from the west. After chilly
lows in the mid 40s Friday morning, daytime readings should climb
rapidly into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Models are in decent agreement showing surface low pressure over the
central Plains and a cold front sliding south into the PAH forecast
area Saturday night, with the front bisecting our area by 12z
Sunday. Models vary a little on just how far south the front will
get, but they do agree in keeping precipitation chances mainly north
of the front Saturday night into Sunday night. This results in most
of our southern counties remaining dry Saturday night into Sunday
evening. Went with good chances of showers and thunderstorms across
southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky and much of southern Illinois
Saturday night, with chances pivoting to include southeast Missouri
by Sunday night.

For early in the work week, models show the surface low meandering
over the Central Plains finally moving slowly east as an upper level
ridge over our region weakens and slides east.  Shower and
thunderstorm chances will be fairly low on Monday, then increase
significantly Monday night as the low moves a little closer.  Models
indicate our best precipitation chances and most significant
rainfall amounts will be late Monday night into Tuesday night.  By
Tuesday night into Wednesday, models diverge on timing and track of
the low, with the ECMWF faster and farther north than the GFS.  The
ECMWF solution would give us dry conditions for Wednesday, while the
GFS solution keeps chances of showers and storms in our area through
the day. Based on the strength and slow movement of the
aforementioned upper level ridge, preference has been to go with the
slower solutions, so continued chances of showers and storms into
Wednesday.

Southwest flow south of the front will keep us unseasonably warm
Saturday into Saturday night, with highs Saturday in the lower 80s
and lows Saturday night in the 55 to 60 degree range.  With the
front bisecting our area Sunday, our temperature range will be wider
with highs in the lower 70s north to lower 80s southwest. With the
front in our region and additional clouds and rain for the first
half of the week, temperatures will be fairly consistent, with lows
in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and highs in the middle to upper
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed May 4 2016

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites through the period.
However, KEVV/KOWB may see cigs decrease into the 3k ft to 4k ft
at times. Northwest behind the front with speeds of 10 to 20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph will decrease to AOB 10 KTS around
sunset...then pick up again 14-15Z Thu.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041937
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

COOL START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...BUT WE QUICKLY WARM UP
BY SATURDAY. VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AS SPOKES OF VORTICITY RIDE SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THIS CHANCE SHOWERS GIVEN THE SETUP.
BY SATURDAY RETURN FLOW TAKES OVER AND WE SEE WARMER TEMPS SURGE
INTO THE UPPER 70S BY SATURDAY. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEREFORE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER IN THE
FAR NORTH AND EAST. THEN THE MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS...AS
A FRONT DIVES SOUTH AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE INITIAL SHOT WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS SOUTH AND SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACTLY WHERE THE FRONT WILL
SETUP. THEN THE FRONT WILL MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTH...AS
A WARM FRONT BY MONDAY WHERE WE LOOK TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE
WEATHER. THEN TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGRESSES EAST WITH SEVERAL WAVES RIDING INTO THE REGION FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR...BUT WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TO MVFR AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE
CARRIED A VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDER POSSIBILITY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS END. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SBH




000
FXUS63 KLMK 041917
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern early this afternoon features an anomalous
upper-level low across the Great Lakes region. This feature will dig
southeast and amplify significantly through the short term period,
bringing continued cool and dreary conditions to the Ohio Valley.

A strong PV anomaly is diving south into the region his afternoon.
The seasonably cold core of this system (500mb temps around -24 to
-26C) is combining with just enough surface heating to cause MLCAPEs
around 250-500 J/kg.  Given freezing levels around 6-8 thousand
feet, we will continue to see some small hail out of these showers
and scattered thunderstorms.  We`ve already received a few reports
of pea-sized hail across southern IN. Don`t expect a whole lot of
lightning with this activity given the shallow depth of the storms
and non-impressive charge separation, but there have been enough
strikes to continue with thunder wording.

Convection will wane this evening as the sun sets and surface
heating is lost.  However, guidance is suggestive another PV anomaly
will dig southeast through the region late tonight, helping to one
again enhance shower coverage.  Forecast soundings show moisture
saturation will be generally shallow, so will not go overly high
with pops.

The final wave rotating around the upper-level low will move through
mainly areas east of I-65 on Thursday.  This should once again
enhance shower coverage in the eastern CWA.  The western edge is a
bit in question, but for now will keep shower mention along/east of
I-65. Do think we will see quite a bit of stratocu, especially
across the eastern CWA.  These clouds combined with steady cold air
advection should keep temperatures into the 50s through much of the
day. Areas along/west of I-65 may benefit from some late afternoon
sunshine attempting to peak through which should push temperatures
into the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night will finally turn mainly dry as the low shifts to the
east.  Overnight lows will still be chilly, in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an omega block across the CONUS.  This regime will slowly
break down beginning this weekend as a kicker PV anomaly dives into
the Great Lakes region.  Therefore, expect a return to a warmer,
more convectively active period this weekend into next week.

Friday continues to look like the pick day of the next seven.  The
upper-level low will be far enough east that we should see mainly
sunny skies and temperatures warming back into the low/mid 70s as a
result.

A few sprinkles will be possible late Friday night into early
Saturday morning within weak isentropic ascent, but the first part
of Saturday is shaping up to be nice.  Expect a mix of clouds and
sunshine with temperatures climbing into the lower 80s.  However,
things become a bit more dicey as we head into early Saturday
evening and into Saturday night.  Guidance has continued to trend a
bit stronger with the kicker wave mentioned above, now digging
deeper into the Great Lakes region.  This results in a further
south/quicker push of a surface cold front into southern IN by early
Saturday evening.  Guidance is suggestive that enough moisture will
return ahead of this front to give us ample instability (about 800-
1000 J/kg from the GFS - which is typically underdone at these
timeframes).  Deep-layer flow will help push 0-6km shear to around
40-45 knots which could foster a few stronger storms pushing in from
the north on Saturday evening.  This is something we will have to
continue to monitor over the next couple of days as timing could
certainly change, but those with outdoor plans early Saturday
evening into Saturday night along and north of the I-64 corridor
should continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Otherwise, the upper-level flow will turn more southwesterly by
early next week.  This will make for a more active pattern and will
keep showers/storms in the forecast Monday, but especially into
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z
occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR.  This line
of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours.  Behind the
line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will
provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon.  Due to
lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site,
will continue VCSH through this evening.  A wind shift with the
front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW.  Winds could also
become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon or evening.

Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the
overnight period.  However, low clouds will move back into the
region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward
sunrise.  Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........AMS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041908
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

MULTIPLE BANDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KY...OH AND INDIANA. THERE HAS
NOT BEEN ANY LIGHTNING SO FAR WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM MOREHEAD TO SOMERSET. HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS SHOWING
UP WITH SOME OF THE STORMS FURTHER WEST NEAR AND ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THUNDER
POSSIBILITY IN THE FORECAST.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE
UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE MI INTO KY. THERE IS GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING SE OF KY ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE COLD MID AND UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT THUNDER FOR THURSDAY IN AGREEMENT
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR...BUT WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TO MVFR AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE
CARRIED A VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDER POSSIBILITY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS END. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SBH




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED NDFD SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST THE CURRENT
TIMING DEPICTED IN THE NDFD AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR ONSET OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE HAD
A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THE BAND
OF RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER 17Z OR 1 PM TODAY. FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED WELL...SO ONLY
THE SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR...BUT WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TO MVFR AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE
CARRIED A VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDER POSSIBILITY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS END. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SBH




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED NDFD SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST THE CURRENT
TIMING DEPICTED IN THE NDFD AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR ONSET OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE HAD
A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THE BAND
OF RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER 17Z OR 1 PM TODAY. FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED WELL...SO ONLY
THE SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BE VFR...BUT WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TO MVFR AS
THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. HAVE
CARRIED A VCTS IN THE TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THUNDER POSSIBILITY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AFTER THE SHOWERS END. AFTER THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER WITH MVFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SBH




000
FXUS63 KLMK 041738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs, temps, and sky cover a bit for
late this morning and afternoon based on this morning`s trends. The
line of showers over southern Indiana is expected to continue to
push ESE through the area through this afternoon with scattered
convection bubbling up behind it along the actual front.  The
initial line and/or convection behind the initial precip line may
grow upscale a bit this afternoon enough to cause small to
marginally severe hail.  Convection is expected to diminish by this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z
occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR.  This line
of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours.  Behind the
line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will
provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon.  Due to
lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site,
will continue VCSH through this evening.  A wind shift with the
front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW.  Winds could also
become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon or evening.

Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the
overnight period.  However, low clouds will move back into the
region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward
sunrise.  Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 041738
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
138 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs, temps, and sky cover a bit for
late this morning and afternoon based on this morning`s trends. The
line of showers over southern Indiana is expected to continue to
push ESE through the area through this afternoon with scattered
convection bubbling up behind it along the actual front.  The
initial line and/or convection behind the initial precip line may
grow upscale a bit this afternoon enough to cause small to
marginally severe hail.  Convection is expected to diminish by this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 130 PM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Steady rain was still moving through BWG/LEX as of 1730Z
occasionally reducing flight conditions to IFR or MVFR.  This line
of showers will exit BWG/LEX within the next few hours.  Behind the
line, a cold front and multiple other boundaries exist which will
provide focus for showers and sct storms this afternoon.  Due to
lower coverage and low confidence in a t-storm hitting a TAF site,
will continue VCSH through this evening.  A wind shift with the
front will occur this afternoon from SW to NW.  Winds could also
become gusty especially behind the front up to 20-25 mph this
afternoon or evening.

Tonight VFR conditions should prevail for a good portion of the
overnight period.  However, low clouds will move back into the
region with perhaps some stray showers as well especially toward
sunrise.  Will include MVFR for tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041432
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1032 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED NDFD SKY COVER...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. BASED ON LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHWEST THE CURRENT
TIMING DEPICTED IN THE NDFD AND OTHER PRODUCTS FOR ONSET OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS GOOD. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE HAD
A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THE BAND
OF RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER 17Z OR 1 PM TODAY. FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED WELL...SO ONLY
THE SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
LIKELY REACH IFR IN SOME SPOTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 041351
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
951 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the forecast to adjust POPs, temps, and sky cover a bit for
late this morning and afternoon based on this morning`s trends. The
line of showers over southern Indiana is expected to continue to
push ESE through the area through this afternoon with scattered
convection bubbling up behind it along the actual front.  The
initial line and/or convection behind the initial precip line may
grow upscale a bit this afternoon enough to cause small to
marginally severe hail.  Convection is expected to diminish by this
evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Deep upper low over Lake Michigan will dive SE into eastern Kentucky
today, driving a surface cold front through the Commonwealth and all
three terminals by mid to late afternoon. Timing and impacts of
precip will be the main challenge, with the wind shift as a
secondary challenge.

Mid-level ceilings are currently in place, and while we expect lower
clouds to move in later this morning, confidence is limited given
the lack of low clouds upstream. Band of showers pinwheeling into
western/central Indiana and southern Illinois will be losing its
initial punch as it swings into Kentucky, but as the upper low
continues its SE track, cold pool showers will increase behind the
front. Will only carry prevailing rain with the initial push in SDF,
with VCSH at LEX and BWG. Late morning precip will be accompanied by
high-end MVFR conditions and SW wind gusts close to 20 kt.

Winds shift to due west or even WNW by mid-afternoon, with ceilings
continuing to lower, possibly into fuel-alternate. Will go with
prevailing SHRA in BWG and LEX, but just VCSH at SDF.

Precip ends and winds shift to NW after sunset, but gusts should lay
down. Ceilings will lift to VFR during the evening. SDF and BWG
should stay up, but stronger cold advection regime and closer
proximity to the upper low will take LEX back down to fuel-alternate
around midnight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 041118 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to good model
agreement.

A lobe of upper level energy swinging around the southwest flank of
a closed H5 low over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front
across the region this morning. With adequate surface based
instability, decent mid level lapse rates, and deep layer moisture,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern half to two
thirds of our CWA this morning. With the freezing level being so
low combined with favorable lapse rates, small hail will be
possible in a few of the stronger showers/thunderstorms.

The upper low is forecast to drop south southeastward along the
IN/OH border this afternoon so small chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the eastern third of our CWA.
Precipitation chances will end by late afternoon as the upper low
slips off to the southeast of the region.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to warm back to near normal by the end of
the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Confidence in the long term is slowly increasing as forecast models
deliver an increasingly consistent message on the evolution of the
overall pattern through the first half of next week.

Starting with Saturday, an upper level ridge will be centered over
the nation`s mid section with two cut-off lows flanking the ridge
over the southwestern U.S. and Mid Atlantic Coast. This blocky type
pattern will modify over the weekend as the East Coast low merges
with a developing low over southeastern Canada. This acts to keep
the immediate forecast area on the northwest flow side of the ridge,
which encourages a backdoor type cold front into the area Saturday
night and Sunday. Models differ somewhat over whether the front
stalls across the area or eventually lifts back to the north as a
warm front Sunday night. By Monday and Monday night, energy from the
western U.S. low begins to stream eastward across the Plains into
the Mississippi Valley.

As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms begins across
the Interstate 64 corridor as early as Saturday afternoon and
evening with the approach of the front. The chance lingers through
the rest of the weekend across mainly southwest Indiana, southern
Illinois, and western Kentucky along and north of the stalled front.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances refocus into the western half
of the area on Monday and then increase across the entire region
Monday night and Tuesday as the western energy draws closer. Despite
the prolonged period of potentially wet weather, more widespread
precipitation should hold off until the Tuesday or Wednesday time
frame.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today with the passage of
a cold front. With the exception of MVFR vsbys in TSRA at
KEVV/KOWB this morning, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 mph early will veer
around to the northwest behind the front with speeds of 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 041118 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
618 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to good model
agreement.

A lobe of upper level energy swinging around the southwest flank of
a closed H5 low over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front
across the region this morning. With adequate surface based
instability, decent mid level lapse rates, and deep layer moisture,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern half to two
thirds of our CWA this morning. With the freezing level being so
low combined with favorable lapse rates, small hail will be
possible in a few of the stronger showers/thunderstorms.

The upper low is forecast to drop south southeastward along the
IN/OH border this afternoon so small chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the eastern third of our CWA.
Precipitation chances will end by late afternoon as the upper low
slips off to the southeast of the region.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to warm back to near normal by the end of
the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Confidence in the long term is slowly increasing as forecast models
deliver an increasingly consistent message on the evolution of the
overall pattern through the first half of next week.

Starting with Saturday, an upper level ridge will be centered over
the nation`s mid section with two cut-off lows flanking the ridge
over the southwestern U.S. and Mid Atlantic Coast. This blocky type
pattern will modify over the weekend as the East Coast low merges
with a developing low over southeastern Canada. This acts to keep
the immediate forecast area on the northwest flow side of the ridge,
which encourages a backdoor type cold front into the area Saturday
night and Sunday. Models differ somewhat over whether the front
stalls across the area or eventually lifts back to the north as a
warm front Sunday night. By Monday and Monday night, energy from the
western U.S. low begins to stream eastward across the Plains into
the Mississippi Valley.

As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms begins across
the Interstate 64 corridor as early as Saturday afternoon and
evening with the approach of the front. The chance lingers through
the rest of the weekend across mainly southwest Indiana, southern
Illinois, and western Kentucky along and north of the stalled front.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances refocus into the western half
of the area on Monday and then increase across the entire region
Monday night and Tuesday as the western energy draws closer. Despite
the prolonged period of potentially wet weather, more widespread
precipitation should hold off until the Tuesday or Wednesday time
frame.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Showers and thunderstorms are possible today with the passage of
a cold front. With the exception of MVFR vsbys in TSRA at
KEVV/KOWB this morning, VFR conditions will prevail at all sites
through the period. Westerly winds AOB 10 mph early will veer
around to the northwest behind the front with speeds of 10 to 20
mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 041054
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
654 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Deep upper low over Lake Michigan will dive SE into eastern Kentucky
today, driving a surface cold front through the Commonwealth and all
three terminals by mid to late afternoon. Timing and impacts of
precip will be the main challenge, with the wind shift as a
secondary challenge.

Mid-level ceilings are currently in place, and while we expect lower
clouds to move in later this morning, confidence is limited given
the lack of low clouds upstream. Band of showers pinwheeling into
western/central Indiana and southern Illinois will be losing its
initial punch as it swings into Kentucky, but as the upper low
continues its SE track, cold pool showers will increase behind the
front. Will only carry prevailing rain with the initial push in SDF,
with VCSH at LEX and BWG. Late morning precip will be accompanied by
high-end MVFR conditions and SW wind gusts close to 20 kt.

Winds shift to due west or even WNW by mid-afternoon, with ceilings
continuing to lower, possibly into fuel-alternate. Will go with
prevailing SHRA in BWG and LEX, but just VCSH at SDF.

Precip ends and winds shift to NW after sunset, but gusts should lay
down. Ceilings will lift to VFR during the evening. SDF and BWG
should stay up, but stronger cold advection regime and closer
proximity to the upper low will take LEX back down to fuel-alternate
around midnight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 041049
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS WE HAD
A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
MOVE ON TO THE EAST BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. LOOKS LIKE THE BAND
OF RAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY
AFTER 17Z OR 1 PM TODAY. FORECAST HAS THAT COVERED WELL...SO ONLY
THE SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE SOME SMALL POPS IN THE EAST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 6 TO 9 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND
LIKELY REACH IFR IN SOME SPOTS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040858
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
458 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
PROVIDE A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS
REASON...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN
FACT...MODELS EVEN SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL
INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL
WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST. AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL
PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND
ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 457 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AS THE PERIOD
STARTS. STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE STILL SHOWN OVER OUR AREA...WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SUPPORT SHOWERS. WITH THE LOW
MOVING FURTHER AWAY...ENOUGH DRYING IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO END. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR THE GULF COAST THEN BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO KY SATURDAY NIGHT.
IT BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY LATE SATURDAY AS IT
APPROACHES. MODELS SHOW THE FRONT STALLING JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...BEFORE TRYING TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT EARLY IN
THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS MAKES THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP
PERSISTENT. WEAK INSTABILITY INDICATED ALSO WARRANTS A MENTION OF
THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 040723
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
323 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

...Showers and Storms with Small Hail This Afternoon...

The bulk of the region remains in the subsident wake of a passing
shortwave thru the pre-dawn hours, however the lull in precipitation
will be short-lived. As we move into the daylight hours, focus will
shift to an anomalous vorticity maximum evident on water vapor
imagery dropping out of the upper Midwest. As the exit region of a
100 knot upper jet moves into the lower Ohio Valley just after
daybreak, the associated low level response in the form of a 30 knot
low level jet will create an isentropic lift component over our
region. This will create a widespread shield of light to moderate
rain showers (and a few rumbles of thunder) sliding southeast
through our region from just after day break through midday. The
evidence of what will occur is already ongoing over northern IL/IN.

Just behind the stratiform rain shield, a sharp cold front will
follow with steady NW surface winds (NW gusts up around 20-25 mph).
With steepening mid level lapse rates underneath the approaching
closed upper low, and perhaps some surface heating in the afternoon,
numerous instability driven showers and storms will develop late
morning into the afternoon. Forecast soundings show freezing levels
in the 6 to 7 K foot range which will easily support small hail in
many showers given modest instability up through 20-25 thousand
feet. Can`t rule out a few larger hail producers if some afternoon
surface heating is realized.

Forecast models are in excellent agreement with today`s evolution
and timing, which puts initial batch of showers along the I-65
corridor around midday, and along the I-75 corridor by early to mid
afternoon. The instability based showers/storms will then follow
from southern IN into central KY through early and mid afternoon.
Precipitaton should then exit our east by early evening. Most spots
should expect around .25" - .33" inches of rain through the day.
Will continue with high pops given confidence in pattern/coverage,
and current radar presentation upstream. Highs today will be in the
low 60s. It`s also worth noting that a cold air funnel can`t be
ruled out in the post frontal regime underneath the upper low this
afternoon/evening.

Tonight - Thursday...

Closed upper low slides right over the region tonight and into the
Carolina Coast by late Thursday. Enough low level moisture should be
around for isolated to widely scattered rain showers mainly across
our east. This will be a cool period with lows tonight in the 40 to
45 degree range, and highs on Thursday in the upper 50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a few sprinkles Friday night. By late Saturday afternoon and
evening, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible along and north of the Ohio River. At this point, it looks
like any precipitation activity should hold off in the Louisville
region until after 8 PM EDT, but do have to introduce a 20% chance
of a shower early evening.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the 70s on Sunday will
warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings will be a bit
tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

VFR through the night with intermittent mid-level ceilings in the
modest warm advection pattern. Front is on schedule diving into
northern Illinois, with a narrow rain shield just ahead of the
boundary.

Expect the rain shield to dive southeast into Kentucky by late
morning, but should be losing coverage as it is left behind by the
stronger upper forcing. Therefore will only carry prevailing SHRA in
SDF, with just VCSH in BWG and LEX. Ceilings will drop into high-end
MVFR, but we can`t rule out briefly going into fuel-alternate
conditions early/mid afternoon. Will reassess in the 12Z TAFs.

SW winds will pick up with the precip, with gusts just shy of 20 kt,
then shift to due west or WNW mid-afternoon. Will continue VCSH
behind the front as cold air aloft will support showery convection.
Can`t rule out isolated thunder or even small hail, but probability
too low to include in TAFs. Ceilings will lift and NW winds will lay
down around sunset.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040719
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULDPROVIDE
A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN
SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST.
AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO
THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040719
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

A QUIET START TO OUR WEDNESDAY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
HOVERING AROUND 50...UNDER A DECK OF MID CLOUDS IN EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A FEW EARLIER SHOWERS NORTH OF I-64...HAVE SLOWLY BEEN
FADING AWAY AS THEY DROP EAST AND SOUTH. IN FACT...NOT MUCH LEFT
OF THESE SHOWERS PRESENTLY. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF CLEARING SKIES
IS SEEN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SHOULD WORK OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW A
BRIEF DROP INTO THE 40S AS SKIES CLEAR OFF. LOOKING TO OUR
NORTH...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/MICHIGAN. SEVERAL REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL
AND DECENT PRECIPITATION RATES CONTINUE TO BE REPORTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. EVEN HAD SOME MEASURED WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHARP WAVE
TROUGH...PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING AND LIFT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

LATEST HI RES ARW/NMM/HRRR ALL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THIS SYSTEM
WELL. IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION SHOULD START TO MOVE IN SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...REACHING SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THIS INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES SOUTH...WE SHOULD SEE SOME
SLIGHT WEAKENING AS IT OUTRUNS THE MAIN FORCING. HOWEVER...NOT TO
BE DISCOUNTED...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO REFIRE SOME
NEW SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE LINE OF WEAKENING
SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SBCAPE CLIMBING TO
500-1000J/KG...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY CAPABLE. WITH
FREEZING LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5.5KFT...SHOULD NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT
TO GET THUNDER AND SOME SMALL HAIL. WHILE I CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL...HAIL SIZE WILL LIKELY STAY UNDER 1 INCH
DIAMETER. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER
00Z THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FORCING EXITS TO THE SOUTH WITH
TEMPORARY SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN OVERNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WILL
TAKE OVER OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AREAWIDE.
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.

ON THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD WITH MOISTURE
INCREASING AND WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHWEST FAVORING UPSLOPE FLOW.
THIS SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER
SHARP SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULDPROVIDE
A NICE UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE AND FOR THIS REASON...HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE EAST FOR THURSDAY. IN FACT...MODELS EVEN
SHOWING STEEP ENOUGH LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE SOME THUNDER INTO THE
FORECAST...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH RLX`S CURRENT FORECAST.
AGAIN...LOW FREEZING LEVELS WILL PROMOTE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY
STORMS. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH INTO
THE 50S WITH AMPLE CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THUS...WILL STAY COLDER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040714
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
214 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to good model
agreement.

A lobe of upper level energy swinging around the southwest flank of
a closed H5 low over the Great Lakes region will push a cold front
across the region this morning. With adequate surface based
instability, decent mid level lapse rates, and deep layer moisture,
showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern half to two
thirds of our CWA this morning. With the freezing level being so
low combined with favorable lapse rates, small hail will be
possible in a few of the stronger showers/thunderstorms.

The upper low is forecast to drop south southeastward along the
IN/OH border this afternoon so small chances for showers and
thunderstorms are possible over the eastern third of our CWA.
Precipitation chances will end by late afternoon as the upper low
slips off to the southeast of the region.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures.
Temperatures are expected to warm back to near normal by the end of
the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed May 4 2016

Confidence in the long term is slowly increasing as forecast models
deliver an increasingly consistent message on the evolution of the
overall pattern through the first half of next week.

Starting with Saturday, an upper level ridge will be centered over
the nation`s mid section with two cut-off lows flanking the ridge
over the southwestern U.S. and Mid Atlantic Coast. This blocky type
pattern will modify over the weekend as the East Coast low merges
with a developing low over southeastern Canada. This acts to keep
the immediate forecast area on the northwest flow side of the ridge,
which encourages a backdoor type cold front into the area Saturday
night and Sunday. Models differ somewhat over whether the front
stalls across the area or eventually lifts back to the north as a
warm front Sunday night. By Monday and Monday night, energy from the
western U.S. low begins to stream eastward across the Plains into
the Mississippi Valley.

As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms begins across
the Interstate 64 corridor as early as Saturday afternoon and
evening with the approach of the front. The chance lingers through
the rest of the weekend across mainly southwest Indiana, southern
Illinois, and western Kentucky along and north of the stalled front.
Better shower and thunderstorm chances refocus into the western half
of the area on Monday and then increase across the entire region
Monday night and Tuesday as the western energy draws closer. Despite
the prolonged period of potentially wet weather, more widespread
precipitation should hold off until the Tuesday or Wednesday time
frame.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s, with lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Cumulus clouds will melt away around sunset, and northwest winds
will become light and variable. There may be a few isolated showers
lingering in the kcgi area til sunset. Much of the night should be
clear and calm. Toward 12z, skies will cloud up as a cold front
approaches. Widespread vfr cigs are expected through the day
Wednesday. As the cold front passes in the morning, there will be
scattered showers, especially in the kevv/kowb areas. Brief mvfr
conditions are likely in showers, mainly in the kevv/kowb areas.
Winds will turn into the northwest and gust around 25 knots behind
the front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040620
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH BASES AROUND
8KFT...NOT MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF. STILL A FEW SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF I-64...ASSOCIATED WITH A LEFT OVER CONVERGENCE ZONE.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST INTO WEST VIRGINIA THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES THIS MORNING IS MAKING ITS MOVE SOUTH WITH A
DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. HAVE SEEN SOME PERSISTENT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH.
FORTUNATELY...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING MORE NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BY
THE TIME IT GETS HERE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE WIND THREAT TO MAKE
IT INTO OUR AREA TODAY. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS. IN
FACT...ALREADY NUMEROUS REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
NEXT 9 TO 12 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 17Z TODAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 040512
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Still have some very weak radar returns in the northeast and have
trended the forecast to deal with those.  The chance of measurable
rainfall is very slight. Hi-res guidance continues to point to a
solid line of rain moving into the region Wednesday after the
morning rush. Ongoing forecast there looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 105 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

Thursday Night - Friday...

Highly amplified upper pattern features expansive closed lows over
the western and eastern coasts, with a blocking upper ridge over the
center part of the CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be in the deep
norhterly flow between eastern closed low and upper ridge to end the
week. With surface high pressure in place and a lack of moisture,
this will be a dry period with lows Thursday night in the mid 40s.
With rising heights/thicknesses on Friday, temps will rise to the
lower 70s.

Friday Night - Saturday...

The upper ridge begins to break down as we head into the weekend in
response to another shortwave diving through Ontario into the Great
Lakes. As this occurs, a frontal boundary will slide toward the Ohio
River by late on Saturday. With surface high pressure still holding
on, this should also be a mostly dry period. However, cannot rule
out a stray light rain shower Friday night. By late Saturday
afternoon and evening, scattered showers and an isolated
thunderstorm will be possible north of the Ohio River. At this
point, it looks like any precipitation activity should hold off in
the Louisville region until after 8 PM EDT.

Friday night lows will be milder than previous nights with readings
in the low to mid 50s. Saturday highs should be able to top out in
the low 80s before upper clouds arrive in the late afternoon and
evening.

Saturday Night - Tuesday...

A potentially showery period continues through the weekend and into
early next week as the aforementioned frontal boundary stalls over
the region, nearly parallel to the NW flow aloft. With the frontal
boundary serving as a mechanism for moisture convergence, expect
that isolated to scattered showers and storms will then be possible
mainly each afternoon and evening through Monday. A brief lull will
be possible on Monday night as a progressive upper ridge moves
through. Chances for showers or storms then return for Tuesday as
upper pattern transitions to a deep SW flow ahead of an approaching
trough. The associated low level response will help to lift the
aforementioned frontal boundary back north as a warm front, with
scattered showers and storms possible in the isentropic ascent
regime.

Saturday and Sunday night lows will be in the mid and upper 50s,
with lows by Monday night around 60. Highs in the mid and upper 70s
on Sunday will warm to near 80 on Monday and Tuesday. These readings
will be a bit tricky to nail down given a waffling frontal boundary
in the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 105 AM EDT Wed May 4 2016

VFR through the night with intermittent mid-level ceilings in the
modest warm advection pattern. Front is on schedule diving into
northern Illinois, with a narrow rain shield just ahead of the
boundary.

Expect the rain shield to dive southeast into Kentucky by late
morning, but should be losing coverage as it is left behind by the
stronger upper forcing. Therefore will only carry prevailing SHRA in
SDF, with just VCSH in BWG and LEX. Ceilings will drop into high-end
MVFR, but we can`t rule out briefly going into fuel-alternate
conditions early/mid afternoon. Will reassess in the 12Z TAFs.

SW winds will pick up with the precip, with gusts just shy of 20 kt,
then shift to due west or WNW mid-afternoon. Will continue VCSH
behind the front as cold air aloft will support showery convection.
Can`t rule out isolated thunder or even small hail, but probability
too low to include in TAFs. Ceilings will lift and NW winds will lay
down around sunset.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040239 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOW OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040239 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

PARTIAL CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME TEMPERATURE DROP OFF IN
PLACES...HOWEVER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN
OVERNIGHT...SO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S STILL LOOK ON TARGET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO POP UP WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH...AND THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS AT LEAST WEAK RETURNS AT
TIMES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE UPDATED TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOW OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY IN
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The isolated showers have been a bit more persistent than
originally thought, but they should either dissipate or move south
of the area by 10 PM.

Played with hourly trends a bit, especially overnight. All
indications are that the pressure gradient will be tightening up
prior to 12Z, as tomorrow`s storm system approaches. That will
result in increased winds prior to sunrise, and likely an increase
in temperature or at least a levelling out in the 09Z-12Z
timeframe. Lows have not been changed much, if at all, but
especially across the north, they may occur in the wee early
morning hours instead of around sunrise.

UPDATE issued at 556 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Isolated shower activity over Southeast Missouri and into the
Purchase Area of West Kentucky (as well as extreme Southern
Illinois) should diminish markedly with the loss of insolation
(sunshine) and the passage of the southwest to northeast
elongated low to middle level trough later this afternoon and
this evening. There will be some gradual clearing during the
evening hours as upper level wind flow and thermal profiles modify
with weak ridging in advance of the sharp wave moving toward the
WFO PAH forecast area between midnight and 7 am CDT.

The high resolution short term guidance, as well as the medium
range guidance have been pushing up the onset time for
precipitation to move into the Interstate 64 corridor of Southern
Illinois by as much as 3 hours, bringing the first showers into
the area between 230 am and 330 am CDT. From Wednesday morning and
into the afternoon the low/middle lapse rates are quite
impressive (-8 to -10C/km), along with downdraft CAPEs above 1000
per the NAM-WRF guidance for the aforementioned time period. In
addition, with freezing levels between 5500-6300 ft AGL and -20
isotherm levels 15000-16500 ft AGL...small hail and gusty winds
should be a given, even with low level bulk shears in the 15 to 30
knot range. Don`t like to flip flop in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but will have to add a mention of hail and winds back to
that product.

With the fast and sharp passage of the trough axis through the
eastern 1/3rd of the WFO PAH forecast area during the afternoon,
rain should shut off very quickly from northwest to southeast.

This weather compact system will create a sharp gradient of
clouds and temperatures across the WFO PAH forecast area Wednesday
and Thursday...with the warmest temperatures expected to persist
along and West of the Mississippi River each of those days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Lower confidence has set in regarding the weekend forecast. While
mid/upper level ridging is still expected to gradually slide east
toward the region, both the 12z operational GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
models now advertise a surface cold front pushing south into the
region (almost in back door fashion) Saturday night into Sunday.
This will likely force us to introduce at least some low POPs for
showers and even a few thunderstorms, especially over the north
half of the region, Saturday night. GFS is advertising 1000-700 mb
MU CAPES 500-1000 J/kg on the north side of the front. Thus
thunderstorms will definitely need a mention to boot.

A bigger question arises on Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS wants to
shift the upper ridge over top of the forecast area in that time
frame, which would result in the front stalling and lifting back
north as a warm front. On the other hand, ECMWF and even the 12z
Canadian hold the ridge off to our west, keeping us in nw flow aloft
longer. This would result in a much farther push south of the cold
front. Thus, the bust potential on max temps Sunday afternoon is
fairly large. Out of respect for the GFS, will play it closer to the
middle of the road since this is still several days out.

In any event, things looks to become more unsettled next week as the
upper ridge shifts farther east and allows the flow to turn more
swly with time, especially by day 7/Tuesday. In addition,
indications are that an extensive area of low pressure will be
pushing east toward the region. Thus, will increase POPs up into the
high chc category (50 percent or so) for showers and scattered
thunderstorms at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Cumulus clouds will melt away around sunset, and northwest winds
will become light and variable. There may be a few isolated showers
lingering in the kcgi area til sunset. Much of the night should be
clear and calm. Toward 12z, skies will cloud up as a cold front
approaches. Widespread vfr cigs are expected through the day
Wednesday. As the cold front passes in the morning, there will be
scattered showers, especially in the kevv/kowb areas. Brief mvfr
conditions are likely in showers, mainly in the kevv/kowb areas.
Winds will turn into the northwest and gust around 25 knots behind
the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 040149
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
849 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

The isolated showers have been a bit more persistent than
originally thought, but they should either dissipate or move south
of the area by 10 PM.

Played with hourly trends a bit, especially overnight. All
indications are that the pressure gradient will be tightening up
prior to 12Z, as tomorrow`s storm system approaches. That will
result in increased winds prior to sunrise, and likely an increase
in temperature or at least a levelling out in the 09Z-12Z
timeframe. Lows have not been changed much, if at all, but
especially across the north, they may occur in the wee early
morning hours instead of around sunrise.

UPDATE issued at 556 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Isolated shower activity over Southeast Missouri and into the
Purchase Area of West Kentucky (as well as extreme Southern
Illinois) should diminish markedly with the loss of insolation
(sunshine) and the passage of the southwest to northeast
elongated low to middle level trough later this afternoon and
this evening. There will be some gradual clearing during the
evening hours as upper level wind flow and thermal profiles modify
with weak ridging in advance of the sharp wave moving toward the
WFO PAH forecast area between midnight and 7 am CDT.

The high resolution short term guidance, as well as the medium
range guidance have been pushing up the onset time for
precipitation to move into the Interstate 64 corridor of Southern
Illinois by as much as 3 hours, bringing the first showers into
the area between 230 am and 330 am CDT. From Wednesday morning and
into the afternoon the low/middle lapse rates are quite
impressive (-8 to -10C/km), along with downdraft CAPEs above 1000
per the NAM-WRF guidance for the aforementioned time period. In
addition, with freezing levels between 5500-6300 ft AGL and -20
isotherm levels 15000-16500 ft AGL...small hail and gusty winds
should be a given, even with low level bulk shears in the 15 to 30
knot range. Don`t like to flip flop in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but will have to add a mention of hail and winds back to
that product.

With the fast and sharp passage of the trough axis through the
eastern 1/3rd of the WFO PAH forecast area during the afternoon,
rain should shut off very quickly from northwest to southeast.

This weather compact system will create a sharp gradient of
clouds and temperatures across the WFO PAH forecast area Wednesday
and Thursday...with the warmest temperatures expected to persist
along and West of the Mississippi River each of those days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Lower confidence has set in regarding the weekend forecast. While
mid/upper level ridging is still expected to gradually slide east
toward the region, both the 12z operational GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
models now advertise a surface cold front pushing south into the
region (almost in back door fashion) Saturday night into Sunday.
This will likely force us to introduce at least some low POPs for
showers and even a few thunderstorms, especially over the north
half of the region, Saturday night. GFS is advertising 1000-700 mb
MU CAPES 500-1000 J/kg on the north side of the front. Thus
thunderstorms will definitely need a mention to boot.

A bigger question arises on Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS wants to
shift the upper ridge over top of the forecast area in that time
frame, which would result in the front stalling and lifting back
north as a warm front. On the other hand, ECMWF and even the 12z
Canadian hold the ridge off to our west, keeping us in nw flow aloft
longer. This would result in a much farther push south of the cold
front. Thus, the bust potential on max temps Sunday afternoon is
fairly large. Out of respect for the GFS, will play it closer to the
middle of the road since this is still several days out.

In any event, things looks to become more unsettled next week as the
upper ridge shifts farther east and allows the flow to turn more
swly with time, especially by day 7/Tuesday. In addition,
indications are that an extensive area of low pressure will be
pushing east toward the region. Thus, will increase POPs up into the
high chc category (50 percent or so) for showers and scattered
thunderstorms at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Cumulus clouds will melt away around sunset, and northwest winds
will become light and variable. There may be a few isolated showers
lingering in the kcgi area til sunset. Much of the night should be
clear and calm. Toward 12z, skies will cloud up as a cold front
approaches. Widespread vfr cigs are expected through the day
Wednesday. As the cold front passes in the morning, there will be
scattered showers, especially in the kevv/kowb areas. Brief mvfr
conditions are likely in showers, mainly in the kevv/kowb areas.
Winds will turn into the northwest and gust around 25 knots behind
the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040023 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOWN OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 040023 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. A FEW SHOWERS ARE DOTTING PORTION OF THE
AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF I-64. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO
ALIGN BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HANG ON FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT
12 TO 15 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...WITH
PLACES IN FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY...INCLUDING SJS...LIKELY SEEING A
WINDOWN OF MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 14Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO BE SEEN
OVERNIGHT...BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIKELY SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST...GENERALLY
IN BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 032330
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
730 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Still have some very weak radar returns in the northeast and have
trended the forecast to deal with those.  The chance of measurable
rainfall is very slight. Hi-res guidance continues to point to a
solid line of rain moving into the region Wednesday after the
morning rush. Ongoing forecast there looks good.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Friday...

Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warmer as the upper low moves
out of our region and up the east coast and upper level ridging
begins to move in from the west.  Highs on Fri look to reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday...

Saturday`s forecast is looking a bit more complicated in recent
model runs.  First of all, longer range models are hinting at a weak
wave bringing a brief burst of showery activity Sat morning to the
region.  Both the last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF show this, however,
it is very weak wave and will hold off for now on adding any very
light POPs for Sat morning at this time.

We should then see a dry period for much of the afternoon/early
evening hours with partly cloudy skies.   Temps on Sat
afternoon/early evening should warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Then late Sat evening (after 8pm) a cold front will dive south from
a low pressure system traversing southern Canada bringing scattered
showers/storms into the region for Sat night.  Severe wx is not
expected for Sat night at this time.  Low temps on Sat night should
hold in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

An active weather pattern looks on track to start next week. Several
small waves will keep low chances for showers/storms Sun/Mon.  A
better chance for more widespread convection will arrive for Tues as
a low pressure system and cold front approach the Midwest.  Temps
will remain at or slightly above seasonal norms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 725 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Expecting a VFR night with variable winds. Wednesday morning winds
will pick up from the southwest and become gusty ahead of a cold
front. Model guidance is in pretty good agreement on the timing of
rains associated with this front, starting at 14/15/16Z for
SDF/BWG/LEX respectively. Line of rain should pass through and then
become more showery late in the day. With cold air aloft, cannot
rule out small hail and/or occasional thunder in the afternoon, but
too low coverage to put in these TAFs. Winds will shift to
northwesterly behind the front Wed afternoon, with MVFR cigs likely
for a period from onset of rain until a few hours behind the front.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 032256
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
556 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Isolated shower activity over Southeast Missouri and into the
Purchase Area of West Kentucky (as well as extreme Southern
Illinois) should diminish markedly with the loss of insolation
(sunshine) and the passage of the southwest to northeast
elongated low to middle level trough later this afternoon and
this evening. There will be some gradual clearing during the
evening hours as upper level wind flow and thermal profiles modify
with weak ridging in advance of the sharp wave moving toward the
WFO PAH forecast area between midnight and 7 am CDT.

The high resolution short term guidance, as well as the medium
range guidance have been pushing up the onset time for
precipitation to move into the Interstate 64 corridor of Southern
Illinois by as much as 3 hours, bringing the first showers into
the area between 230 am and 330 am CDT. From Wednesday morning and
into the afternoon the low/middle lapse rates are quite
impressive (-8 to -10C/km), along with downdraft CAPEs above 1000
per the NAM-WRF guidance for the aforementioned time period. In
addition, with freezing levels between 5500-6300 ft AGL and -20
isotherm levels 15000-16500 ft AGL...small hail and gusty winds
should be a given, even with low level bulk shears in the 15 to 30
knot range. Don`t like to flip flop in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but will have to add a mention of hail and winds back to
that product.

With the fast and sharp passage of the trough axis through the
eastern 1/3rd of the WFO PAH forecast area during the afternoon,
rain should shut off very quickly from northwest to southeast.

This weather compact system will create a sharp gradient of
clouds and temperatures across the WFO PAH forecast area Wednesday
and Thursday...with the warmest temperatures expected to persist
along and West of the Mississippi River each of those days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Lower confidence has set in regarding the weekend forecast. While
mid/upper level ridging is still expected to gradually slide east
toward the region, both the 12z operational GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
models now advertise a surface cold front pushing south into the
region (almost in back door fashion) Saturday night into Sunday.
This will likely force us to introduce at least some low POPs for
showers and even a few thunderstorms, especially over the north
half of the region, Saturday night. GFS is advertising 1000-700 mb
MU CAPES 500-1000 J/kg on the north side of the front. Thus
thunderstorms will definitely need a mention to boot.

A bigger question arises on Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS wants to
shift the upper ridge over top of the forecast area in that time
frame, which would result in the front stalling and lifting back
north as a warm front. On the other hand, ECMWF and even the 12z
Canadian hold the ridge off to our west, keeping us in nw flow aloft
longer. This would result in a much farther push south of the cold
front. Thus, the bust potential on max temps Sunday afternoon is
fairly large. Out of respect for the GFS, will play it closer to the
middle of the road since this is still several days out.

In any event, things looks to become more unsettled next week as the
upper ridge shifts farther east and allows the flow to turn more
swly with time, especially by day 7/Tuesday. In addition,
indications are that an extensive area of low pressure will be
pushing east toward the region. Thus, will increase POPs up into the
high chc category (50 percent or so) for showers and scattered
thunderstorms at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 556 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Cumulus clouds will melt away around sunset, and northwest winds
will become light and variable. There may be a few isolated showers
lingering in the kcgi area til sunset. Much of the night should be
clear and calm. Toward 12z, skies will cloud up as a cold front
approaches. Widespread vfr cigs are expected through the day
Wednesday. As the cold front passes in the morning, there will be
scattered showers, especially in the kevv/kowb areas. Brief mvfr
conditions are likely in showers, mainly in the kevv/kowb areas.
Winds will turn into the northwest and gust around 25 knots behind
the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 032002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FEATURE SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE APPALACHIAN REGION AS THE
BOUNDARY THAT HAD SPARKED SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY NUDGE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH STOUT LOW PRESSURE
EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT.

WITH A FEW BREAKS TODAY IN THE CLOUD COVER...SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DID DEVELOP AND WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS IN THE SOUTH. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES THE AREA TONIGHT A FEW
SHOWERS WILL POP UP AGAIN THE NORTH. THE CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG UNLIKELY. HEADING INTO THE DAY
TOMORROW...A STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL SWING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH A DECENT GRADIENT IN
THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH...WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY WITH THE
FRONT...HOWEVER INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. WILL EXPECT SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT...SOME LOWER FREEZING
HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL. A COLD CORE
LOW STALLING OVERHEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER. IN
FACT...TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 40S AND POSSIBLY SOME UPPER
30S. OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE CLOUDY...COOL...AND A FEW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031956
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
256 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Isolated shower activity over Southeast Missouri and into the
Purchase Area of West Kentucky (as well as extreme Southern
Illinois) should diminish markedly with the loss of insolation
(sunshine) and the passage of the southwest to northeast
elongated low to middle level trough later this afternoon and
this evening. There will be some gradual clearing during the
evening hours as upper level wind flow and thermal profiles modify
with weak ridging in advance of the sharp wave moving toward the
WFO PAH forecast area between midnight and 7 am CDT.

The high resolution short term guidance, as well as the medium
range guidance have been pushing up the onset time for
precipitation to move into the Interstate 64 corridor of Southern
Illinois by as much as 3 hours, bringing the first showers into
the area between 230 am and 330 am CDT. From Wednesday morning and
into the afternoon the low/middle lapse rates are quite
impressive (-8 to -10C/km), along with downdraft CAPEs above 1000
per the NAM-WRF guidance for the aforementioned time period. In
addition, with freezing levels between 5500-6300 ft AGL and -20
isotherm levels 15000-16500 ft AGL...small hail and gusty winds
should be a given, even with low level bulk shears in the 15 to 30
knot range. Don`t like to flip flop in the Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but will have to add a mention of hail and winds back to
that product.

With the fast and sharp passage of the trough axis through the
eastern 1/3rd of the WFO PAH forecast area during the afternoon,
rain should shut off very quickly from northwest to southeast.

This weather compact system will create a sharp gradient of
clouds and temperatures across the WFO PAH forecast area Wednesday
and Thursday...with the warmest temperatures expected to persist
along and West of the Mississippi River each of those days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Lower confidence has set in regarding the weekend forecast. While
mid/upper level ridging is still expected to gradually slide east
toward the region, both the 12z operational GFS/ECMWF/Canadian
models now advertise a surface cold front pushing south into the
region (almost in back door fashion) Saturday night into Sunday.
This will likely force us to introduce at least some low POPs for
showers and even a few thunderstorms, especially over the north
half of the region, Saturday night. GFS is advertising 1000-700 mb
MU CAPES 500-1000 J/kg on the north side of the front. Thus
thunderstorms will definitely need a mention to boot.

A bigger question arises on Sunday/Sunday night. The GFS wants to
shift the upper ridge over top of the forecast area in that time
frame, which would result in the front stalling and lifting back
north as a warm front. On the other hand, ECMWF and even the 12z
Canadian hold the ridge off to our west, keeping us in nw flow aloft
longer. This would result in a much farther push south of the cold
front. Thus, the bust potential on max temps Sunday afternoon is
fairly large. Out of respect for the GFS, will play it closer to the
middle of the road since this is still several days out.

In any event, things looks to become more unsettled next week as the
upper ridge shifts farther east and allows the flow to turn more
swly with time, especially by day 7/Tuesday. In addition,
indications are that an extensive area of low pressure will be
pushing east toward the region. Thus, will increase POPs up into the
high chc category (50 percent or so) for showers and scattered
thunderstorms at that time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Main challenges with the 18z Tuesday WFO PAH TAFs were duration of
diurnal cold air stratocumulus and the onset and coverage of
showers/thunderstorms and attendant ceilings on Wednesday.
With the transition of ceiling heights over a 1-2kft layer,
selected a mean ceiling height that represented the longest
duration within a time period.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KLMK 031935
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
335 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

Late this afternoon, light rain showers were skirting across our
southeast Indiana/northern Bluegrass counties.  Could still see a
bit more development southward into more of southern Indiana and
northern KY through the evening hours, but shouldn`t be more than a
light sprinkle or shower at best.  Will continue 20-30% POPs for
this evening.

Showers should end toward late evening with mostly dry conditions
overnight.  Skies should become partly cloudy tonight behind this
wave.  Low temps look to bottom out in the upper 40s.

Look for a cold front and upper low to dive into our region for
tomorrow.  Showers and storms are expected to develop along the
front during the morning hours and move into our southern Indiana
counties around mid to late morning.  Convection is expected to
spread ESE through the rest of the forecast area during the day and
then diminish to isld-sct activity by tomorrow evening.  This is a
potent upper low with good forcing for ascent.  As the colder air
associated with it moves into our region and sfc heating takes
place, lapse rates will steepen sharply.  With modest 0-6 km bulk
shear of 25-35 kts and CAPE of 500-1000 j/kg, small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in low topped convection. The best time
for storms with hail would be during the late morning to early
evening hours.  Highs for tomorrow look to reach the upper 50s to
mid 60s with south central KY being the warmest under a longer
period of only partly cloudy skies in the morning/early afternoon.

Wed night/Thu we`ll see lingering shower activity on the NW side of
the upper low mainly focused east of I-65 on Thurs.  Temps will stay
on the cool side with Wed night/Thu night lows in the low to mid 40s
and Thu highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Friday...

Friday looks to be mostly sunny and warmer as the upper low moves
out of our region and up the east coast and upper level ridging
begins to move in from the west.  Highs on Fri look to reach the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Saturday...

Saturday`s forecast is looking a bit more complicated in recent
model runs.  First of all, longer range models are hinting at a weak
wave bringing a brief burst of showery activity Sat morning to the
region.  Both the last few runs of the GFS/ECMWF show this, however,
it is very weak wave and will hold off for now on adding any very
light POPs for Sat morning at this time.

We should then see a dry period for much of the afternoon/early
evening hours with partly cloudy skies.   Temps on Sat
afternoon/early evening should warm into the upper 70s/lower 80s.

Then late Sat evening (after 8pm) a cold front will dive south from
a low pressure system traversing southern Canada bringing scattered
showers/storms into the region for Sat night.  Severe wx is not
expected for Sat night at this time.  Low temps on Sat night should
hold in the mid to upper 50s.

Sunday - Tuesday...

An active weather pattern looks on track to start next week. Several
small waves will keep low chances for showers/storms Sun/Mon.  A
better chance for more widespread convection will arrive for Tues as
a low pressure system and cold front approach the Midwest.  Temps
will remain at or slightly above seasonal norms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows a broken deck of strato-cu pivoting
southeast through all sites.  Enough mixing has occurred early this
afternoon which has brought cigs into mainly VFR ranges, but some
brief forays into MVFR may still be possible early this afternoon.
Showers have been slow to pivot into SDF/LEX, but still think enough
will develop late this afternoon to warrant VCSH mention.  Any
impacts from the precipitation will be minimal.

Clouds should decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of heating,
but will still see a SCT/BKN VFR cloud deck sliding through.  An
additional line of showers and associated MVFR cigs will push into
all sites late in the period and into the SDF planning period. Winds
will be out of the WNW through tonight, shifting to the WSW early
Wednesday morning ahead of the next incoming system.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........KJD




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031903
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN
UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A DEEP CLOSED LOW WILL BE PASSING ACROSS KY TO START OFF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...PULLING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR DOWN INTO THE
REGION. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...KEEPING STRONG N TO S FLOW ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION INTO THE DAY SATURDAY...WHILE THE LOW REMAINS
PARKED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

AT THIS POINT...ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY IN
CANADA WILL BEGIN DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW TO OUR EAST WILL BEGIN
TO DISSOLVE AND MERGE INTO THE INCOMING LOW AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WHILE THE UPPER LOW WILL STAY TO OUR
NE...EXPECT THE RETURN OF NW FLOW TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. THE LOW WILL THEN START SHIFTING EASTWARD...WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKING HOLD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

LINGERING PRECIP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND EVEN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SE ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO
LINGERING MOISTURE AND NW TO SE UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. SO
LONG AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW STAY POSITIONED OVER THE
EASTERN COAST...THIS NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THE STRONG N TO S
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PULL IN DEEP CAA...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 50S. AS CONDITIONS BEGIN CLEARING THURSDAY
NIGHT...EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF TO THE LOW TO MID 40S...WITH COLDEST
TEMPS LIKELY IN THE VALLEYS. FRIDAY WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT...BUT
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S IS STILL BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS FOR
THE BEGINNING OF MAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NUDGES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
MOSTLY CLEAR...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE ALLOWED TO RISE INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S AS WINDS BECOME MORE WRLY NEAR THE SURFACE...TAPPING
INTO WARMER GULF FLOW COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW
DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD...
ENTERING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL BE CONTAINED CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NE...STILL EXPECT SOME LOW END CHANCE POPS TO MAKE IT INTO
OUR CWA...MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING ALL THE WAY INTO MONDAY...DESPITE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD. GENERALLY WRLY FLOW...EVEN ALOFT...AT THIS POINT...WILL
CONTINUE TO PULL IN WARMER TEMPS...TAPPING INTO THE GULF MOISTURE
ACROSS TX. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND STARTING OUT THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN
UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to decent model
agreement.

At the beginning of the short term period a closed H5 low was
centered just north of the Great Lakes region. A short wave rotating
around the southwest flank of the low will drop southward across the
lower Ohio valley this afternoon. Due to limited deep layer moisture
QPF should be sparse and limited to the northeast sections of our
CWA.

After a brief respite this evening and most of the overnight hours,
the aforementioned upper low is forecast to drop southward along the
IN/OH border on Wednesday. The leading edge of precipitation
associated with it is forecast to make it into the far northern
sections of our CWA by 12Z (7AM), then spread southward across the
eastern half of our CWA by midday, then begin to diminish from west
to east in the afternoon in the wake of the low. There should be
enough surface based instability Wednesday afternoon over the far
eastern sections to warrant the mention of thunder.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the period. However, temperatures will average
near to just below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fairly good agreement among forecast models through early next week
is counterbalanced by a blocking pattern that starts the long term
and reduces confidence in how the overall pattern evolves over the
weekend.

Starting with Friday, an omega block type upper level pattern should
be in place, with a highly amplified ridge over the central U.S.
flanked by two cut-off lows on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least the
first half of the weekend. The end result will be dry weather with
seasonably warm temperatures.

As early as Saturday night and Sunday, forecast models begin to
break down the omega blocking pattern as the formation of a deep
upper level low over southeastern Canada kicks the Atlantic low to
the east and suppresses the upper level ridge over the Heartland.
Energy from the Pacific low begins to stream eastward across the
Plains as a weak cold front drops southward into the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

This initially results in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
along the Interstate 64 corridor during the latter half of the
weekend. The chance shifts south and east to encompass the entire
forecast area by Monday and Monday night. Later forecasts will
likely need some adjustment as they shed more light on how quickly
the pattern evolves.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to warm from the mid 70s on Friday into the upper 70s
and lower 80s over the weekend. Lows should moderate from the mid
50s Friday night into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Main challenges with the 18z Tuesday WFO PAH TAFs were duration of
diurnal cold air stratocumulus and the onset and coverage of
showers/thunderstorms and attendant ceilings on Wednesday.
With the transition of ceiling heights over a 1-2kft layer,
selected a mean ceiling height that represented the longest
duration within a time period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to decent model
agreement.

At the beginning of the short term period a closed H5 low was
centered just north of the Great Lakes region. A short wave rotating
around the southwest flank of the low will drop southward across the
lower Ohio valley this afternoon. Due to limited deep layer moisture
QPF should be sparse and limited to the northeast sections of our
CWA.

After a brief respite this evening and most of the overnight hours,
the aforementioned upper low is forecast to drop southward along the
IN/OH border on Wednesday. The leading edge of precipitation
associated with it is forecast to make it into the far northern
sections of our CWA by 12Z (7AM), then spread southward across the
eastern half of our CWA by midday, then begin to diminish from west
to east in the afternoon in the wake of the low. There should be
enough surface based instability Wednesday afternoon over the far
eastern sections to warrant the mention of thunder.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the period. However, temperatures will average
near to just below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fairly good agreement among forecast models through early next week
is counterbalanced by a blocking pattern that starts the long term
and reduces confidence in how the overall pattern evolves over the
weekend.

Starting with Friday, an omega block type upper level pattern should
be in place, with a highly amplified ridge over the central U.S.
flanked by two cut-off lows on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least the
first half of the weekend. The end result will be dry weather with
seasonably warm temperatures.

As early as Saturday night and Sunday, forecast models begin to
break down the omega blocking pattern as the formation of a deep
upper level low over southeastern Canada kicks the Atlantic low to
the east and suppresses the upper level ridge over the Heartland.
Energy from the Pacific low begins to stream eastward across the
Plains as a weak cold front drops southward into the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

This initially results in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
along the Interstate 64 corridor during the latter half of the
weekend. The chance shifts south and east to encompass the entire
forecast area by Monday and Monday night. Later forecasts will
likely need some adjustment as they shed more light on how quickly
the pattern evolves.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to warm from the mid 70s on Friday into the upper 70s
and lower 80s over the weekend. Lows should moderate from the mid
50s Friday night into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Main challenges with the 18z Tuesday WFO PAH TAFs were duration of
diurnal cold air stratocumulus and the onset and coverage of
showers/thunderstorms and attendant ceilings on Wednesday.
With the transition of ceiling heights over a 1-2kft layer,
selected a mean ceiling height that represented the longest
duration within a time period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to decent model
agreement.

At the beginning of the short term period a closed H5 low was
centered just north of the Great Lakes region. A short wave rotating
around the southwest flank of the low will drop southward across the
lower Ohio valley this afternoon. Due to limited deep layer moisture
QPF should be sparse and limited to the northeast sections of our
CWA.

After a brief respite this evening and most of the overnight hours,
the aforementioned upper low is forecast to drop southward along the
IN/OH border on Wednesday. The leading edge of precipitation
associated with it is forecast to make it into the far northern
sections of our CWA by 12Z (7AM), then spread southward across the
eastern half of our CWA by midday, then begin to diminish from west
to east in the afternoon in the wake of the low. There should be
enough surface based instability Wednesday afternoon over the far
eastern sections to warrant the mention of thunder.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the period. However, temperatures will average
near to just below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fairly good agreement among forecast models through early next week
is counterbalanced by a blocking pattern that starts the long term
and reduces confidence in how the overall pattern evolves over the
weekend.

Starting with Friday, an omega block type upper level pattern should
be in place, with a highly amplified ridge over the central U.S.
flanked by two cut-off lows on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least the
first half of the weekend. The end result will be dry weather with
seasonably warm temperatures.

As early as Saturday night and Sunday, forecast models begin to
break down the omega blocking pattern as the formation of a deep
upper level low over southeastern Canada kicks the Atlantic low to
the east and suppresses the upper level ridge over the Heartland.
Energy from the Pacific low begins to stream eastward across the
Plains as a weak cold front drops southward into the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

This initially results in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
along the Interstate 64 corridor during the latter half of the
weekend. The chance shifts south and east to encompass the entire
forecast area by Monday and Monday night. Later forecasts will
likely need some adjustment as they shed more light on how quickly
the pattern evolves.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to warm from the mid 70s on Friday into the upper 70s
and lower 80s over the weekend. Lows should moderate from the mid
50s Friday night into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Main challenges with the 18z Tuesday WFO PAH TAFs were duration of
diurnal cold air stratocumulus and the onset and coverage of
showers/thunderstorms and attendant ceilings on Wednesday.
With the transition of ceiling heights over a 1-2kft layer,
selected a mean ceiling height that represented the longest
duration within a time period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031736
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016



.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to decent model
agreement.

At the beginning of the short term period a closed H5 low was
centered just north of the Great Lakes region. A short wave rotating
around the southwest flank of the low will drop southward across the
lower Ohio valley this afternoon. Due to limited deep layer moisture
QPF should be sparse and limited to the northeast sections of our
CWA.

After a brief respite this evening and most of the overnight hours,
the aforementioned upper low is forecast to drop southward along the
IN/OH border on Wednesday. The leading edge of precipitation
associated with it is forecast to make it into the far northern
sections of our CWA by 12Z (7AM), then spread southward across the
eastern half of our CWA by midday, then begin to diminish from west
to east in the afternoon in the wake of the low. There should be
enough surface based instability Wednesday afternoon over the far
eastern sections to warrant the mention of thunder.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the period. However, temperatures will average
near to just below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fairly good agreement among forecast models through early next week
is counterbalanced by a blocking pattern that starts the long term
and reduces confidence in how the overall pattern evolves over the
weekend.

Starting with Friday, an omega block type upper level pattern should
be in place, with a highly amplified ridge over the central U.S.
flanked by two cut-off lows on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least the
first half of the weekend. The end result will be dry weather with
seasonably warm temperatures.

As early as Saturday night and Sunday, forecast models begin to
break down the omega blocking pattern as the formation of a deep
upper level low over southeastern Canada kicks the Atlantic low to
the east and suppresses the upper level ridge over the Heartland.
Energy from the Pacific low begins to stream eastward across the
Plains as a weak cold front drops southward into the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

This initially results in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
along the Interstate 64 corridor during the latter half of the
weekend. The chance shifts south and east to encompass the entire
forecast area by Monday and Monday night. Later forecasts will
likely need some adjustment as they shed more light on how quickly
the pattern evolves.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to warm from the mid 70s on Friday into the upper 70s
and lower 80s over the weekend. Lows should moderate from the mid
50s Friday night into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Main challenges with the 18z Tuesday WFO PAH TAFs were duration of
diurnal cold air stratocumulus and the onset and coverage of
showers/thunderstorms and attendant ceilings on Wednesday.
With the transition of ceiling heights over a 1-2kft layer,
selected a mean ceiling height that represented the longest
duration within a time period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...Smith




000
FXUS63 KLMK 031729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Light showery activity to our north late this morning should
gradually drift south into our region with new convective develop
expected in afternoon cu as well.  Thus, will continue isld-sct
showers for today mainly over southern IN and north central KY. Made
some slight tweaks to temps, but overall they remain the same with
highs in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows a broken deck of strato-cu pivoting
southeast through all sites.  Enough mixing has occurred early this
afternoon which has brought cigs into mainly VFR ranges, but some
brief forays into MVFR may still be possible early this afternoon.
Showers have been slow to pivot into SDF/LEX, but still think enough
will develop late this afternoon to warrant VCSH mention.  Any
impacts from the precipitation will be minimal.

Clouds should decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of heating,
but will still see a SCT/BKN VFR cloud deck sliding through.  An
additional line of showers and associated MVFR cigs will push into
all sites late in the period and into the SDF planning period. Winds
will be out of the WNW through tonight, shifting to the WSW early
Wednesday morning ahead of the next incoming system.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD




000
FXUS63 KLMK 031729
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
129 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Light showery activity to our north late this morning should
gradually drift south into our region with new convective develop
expected in afternoon cu as well.  Thus, will continue isld-sct
showers for today mainly over southern IN and north central KY. Made
some slight tweaks to temps, but overall they remain the same with
highs in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 127 PM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest satellite imagery shows a broken deck of strato-cu pivoting
southeast through all sites.  Enough mixing has occurred early this
afternoon which has brought cigs into mainly VFR ranges, but some
brief forays into MVFR may still be possible early this afternoon.
Showers have been slow to pivot into SDF/LEX, but still think enough
will develop late this afternoon to warrant VCSH mention.  Any
impacts from the precipitation will be minimal.

Clouds should decrease in coverage tonight with the loss of heating,
but will still see a SCT/BKN VFR cloud deck sliding through.  An
additional line of showers and associated MVFR cigs will push into
all sites late in the period and into the SDF planning period. Winds
will be out of the WNW through tonight, shifting to the WSW early
Wednesday morning ahead of the next incoming system.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......KJD




000
FXUS63 KLMK 031455
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1055 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1050 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Light showery activity to our north late this morning should
gradually drift south into our region with new convective develop
expected in afternoon cu as well.  Thus, will continue isld-sct
showers for today mainly over southern IN and north central KY. Made
some slight tweaks to temps, but overall they remain the same with
highs in the low to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest IR imagery and GOES-R MVFR/IFR probabilities show an area of
IFR stratus across southwest to central Indiana slowly dropping
south into north central Kentucky. This will most likely impact SDF
and LEX through the morning hours with low ceilings. There are some
visibility restrictions but feel the main aviation challenge is
ceilings. Expect this deck to continue for a few hours but slowly
lifting as the initial upper level system passes the area.

Plan on light west/northwest winds today and mostly VFR conditions
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible but will continue to leave out of TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......ZT




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031408
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031408
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1008 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031116 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to decent model
agreement.

At the beginning of the short term period a closed H5 low was
centered just north of the Great Lakes region. A short wave rotating
around the southwest flank of the low will drop southward across the
lower Ohio valley this afternoon. Due to limited deep layer moisture
QPF should be sparse and limited to the northeast sections of our
CWA.

After a brief respite this evening and most of the overnight hours,
the aforementioned upper low is forecast to drop southward along the
IN/OH border on Wednesday. The leading edge of precipitation
associated with it is forecast to make it into the far northern
sections of our CWA by 12Z (7AM), then spread southward across the
eastern half of our CWA by midday, then begin to diminish from west
to east in the afternoon in the wake of the low. There should be
enough surface based instability Wednesday afternoon over the far
eastern sections to warrant the mention of thunder.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the period. However, temperatures will average
near to just below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fairly good agreement among forecast models through early next week
is counterbalanced by a blocking pattern that starts the long term
and reduces confidence in how the overall pattern evolves over the
weekend.

Starting with Friday, an omega block type upper level pattern should
be in place, with a highly amplified ridge over the central U.S.
flanked by two cut-off lows on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least the
first half of the weekend. The end result will be dry weather with
seasonably warm temperatures.

As early as Saturday night and Sunday, forecast models begin to
break down the omega blocking pattern as the formation of a deep
upper level low over southeastern Canada kicks the Atlantic low to
the east and suppresses the upper level ridge over the Heartland.
Energy from the Pacific low begins to stream eastward across the
Plains as a weak cold front drops southward into the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

This initially results in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
along the Interstate 64 corridor during the latter half of the
weekend. The chance shifts south and east to encompass the entire
forecast area by Monday and Monday night. Later forecasts will
likely need some adjustment as they shed more light on how quickly
the pattern evolves.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to warm from the mid 70s on Friday into the upper 70s
and lower 80s over the weekend. Lows should moderate from the mid
50s Friday night into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

With the exception of possible MVFR cigs at KCGI/KPAH between
12-15Z, VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the
period. West to northwest winds AOB 10 knots will become light and
variable after 02Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 031116 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
616 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to decent model
agreement.

At the beginning of the short term period a closed H5 low was
centered just north of the Great Lakes region. A short wave rotating
around the southwest flank of the low will drop southward across the
lower Ohio valley this afternoon. Due to limited deep layer moisture
QPF should be sparse and limited to the northeast sections of our
CWA.

After a brief respite this evening and most of the overnight hours,
the aforementioned upper low is forecast to drop southward along the
IN/OH border on Wednesday. The leading edge of precipitation
associated with it is forecast to make it into the far northern
sections of our CWA by 12Z (7AM), then spread southward across the
eastern half of our CWA by midday, then begin to diminish from west
to east in the afternoon in the wake of the low. There should be
enough surface based instability Wednesday afternoon over the far
eastern sections to warrant the mention of thunder.

Beyond that rising heights aloft and high pressure at the surface
should keep the region dry with slowly moderating temperatures
through the end of the period. However, temperatures will average
near to just below normal through the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

Fairly good agreement among forecast models through early next week
is counterbalanced by a blocking pattern that starts the long term
and reduces confidence in how the overall pattern evolves over the
weekend.

Starting with Friday, an omega block type upper level pattern should
be in place, with a highly amplified ridge over the central U.S.
flanked by two cut-off lows on both the Pacific and Atlantic coasts.
This pattern is expected to remain in place through at least the
first half of the weekend. The end result will be dry weather with
seasonably warm temperatures.

As early as Saturday night and Sunday, forecast models begin to
break down the omega blocking pattern as the formation of a deep
upper level low over southeastern Canada kicks the Atlantic low to
the east and suppresses the upper level ridge over the Heartland.
Energy from the Pacific low begins to stream eastward across the
Plains as a weak cold front drops southward into the Middle
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

This initially results in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
along the Interstate 64 corridor during the latter half of the
weekend. The chance shifts south and east to encompass the entire
forecast area by Monday and Monday night. Later forecasts will
likely need some adjustment as they shed more light on how quickly
the pattern evolves.

Used a blend of model guidance for temperatures through the period.
Readings will generally be near or just above seasonal norms. Highs
are forecast to warm from the mid 70s on Friday into the upper 70s
and lower 80s over the weekend. Lows should moderate from the mid
50s Friday night into the upper 50s and lower 60s over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 3 2016

With the exception of possible MVFR cigs at KCGI/KPAH between
12-15Z, VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the
period. West to northwest winds AOB 10 knots will become light and
variable after 02Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...RJP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031102
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 031102
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE PRESENTLY...WITH
SOME PLACES...MAINLY ON RIDGES REPORTING FAIRLY THICK FOG...WHILE
OTHERS ARE LIMITED TO MAINLY IFR CIGS. MEANWHILE...SOME OTHERS ARE
SITTING WITH MVFR OR VFR CONDITIONS. CLEARLY A LARGE RANGE OUT
THERE THIS MORNING AND WE COULD GO IN AND OUT OF THESE VARIOUS
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND IS
THAT WE SHOULD REACH GENERALLY MVFR FOR MOST AREAS BY MID TO LATE
MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS
WILL START LOWERING TONIGHT...REACHING BACK INTO THE MVFR
CATEGORY. SOME IFR MAY BE POSSIBLE VERY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 031032
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
632 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

...Showery and Cooler Through Mid Week...

An upper trough with several vort maxes rotating through will
dominate the short term forecast period. This will result in a
showery and cooler than normal period of weather.

Current water vapor imagery shows the next feature dropping into the
upper Wabash River Valley at this hour, with some very light showers
slowly dropping through central IN. Previous forecast and current hi
res models agree that isolated to widely scattered showers will drop
into southern IN around daybreak and slowly pivot through our region
mainly along and north of I-64 through the day, then into central KY
by late afternoon. Moisture is not very deep, so will go with low
chances for measurable rain. Under mostly cloudy skies and steady NW
surface wind, temperatures will struggle. Expect highs only in the
low to mid 60s in many spots.

Isolated light rain showers will linger in the Blue Grass region
through the evening hours, with a lull in precipitation elsewhere.
Will forecast a dry period in the pre-dawn hours, however this will
be short-lived ahead of a potent Vort diving into the region for
Wednesday. Lows tonight should be in the upper 40s.

Anomalous upper low dives toward our region through Wednesday, and
will be the focus for numerous rain showers and scattered
thunderstorms in the afternoon. Given mid level lapse rates and very
low freezing levels (6-7 K feet), some hail is possible in
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. If a few breaks in the clouds are
realized during the afternoon, then potential for a few marginally
severe hailers isn`t out of the question. In addition, any surface
heating will result in better potential to mix into stronger winds
aloft in the afternoon. Will forecast gusts up to around 25 mph for
now, but deeper mixing could warrant gusts over 30 mph. Again, the
limiting factor at this time appears to be cloud cover. Expect highs
in the low to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Wednesday Night - Thursday...

Anomalous closed upper low will be sliding through the region
Wednesday night and Thursday, with enough lingering moisture to
squeeze out isolated to widely scattered showers in our east. As one
would expect with anomalous upper low, temperatures will be well
below normal under heavy cloud cover and steady cold advection. Lows
Wednesday night should drop into the 40 to 45 range, with highs on
Thursday mostly in the mid and upper 50s. Spots near Bowling Green
should sneak into the low 60s.

Thursday Night - Friday Night...

The overall upper pattern slowly slides east to end the week, with
closed upper low spinning over the mid Atlantic Coast and upper
ridge axis sliding to the central CONUS. This will put the Ohio
Valley under enough influence of high pressure to return dry
conditions and begin to warm up a bit. Thursday night lows will
still be chilly in the low to mid 40s. Friday highs will mostly be
in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies and increasing
heights/thicknesses. Friday night lows will be slightly milder
in the low 50s.

Saturday...

Upper ridge axis breaks down on Saturday in response to a shortwave
moving into the Great Lakes region. The trend with this features is
stronger/faster to the point where it could have a minimal impact on
the Saturday evening forecast along and north of the Ohio River.
Data suggest that enough moisture could pool ahead of a surface
frontal boundary sagging into our area to produce isolated to widely
scatterd showers or a storm. This tends to be overdone by models a
lot of the time, especially when moving into an antecedent dry
airmass. That being said, the faster trend is worth noting/watching.
Overall, the Saturday forecast will be dry with highs around 80.
We`ll be watching for a few showers across southern IN by late
afternoon and early evening.

Saturday Night - Monday...

The Ohio Valley will be situated under persistent NW flow aloft
between central CONUS ridge axis and New England troughing to end
the weekend. The aforementioned frontal boundary will stall over or
near our area nearly parallel to the upper flow. With this feature
in the area, expect that isolated to scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible, mainly each afternoon and evening.
Temperatures are always tricky when trying to nail down the exact
position of a frontal boundary, but with most of the region expected
to be on the warm side, upper 70s and low 80s seem reasonable.
Southern IN would have the best shot at mid 70s for highs.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EDT Tue May 3 2016

Latest IR imagery and GOES-R MVFR/IFR probabilities show an area of
IFR stratus across southwest to central Indiana slowly dropping
south into north central Kentucky. This will most likely impact SDF
and LEX through the morning hours with low ceilings. There are some
visibility restrictions but feel the main aviation challenge is
ceilings. Expect this deck to continue for a few hours but slowly
lifting as the initial upper level system passes the area.

Plan on light west/northwest winds today and mostly VFR conditions
this afternoon and evening. Isolated to widely scattered showers are
possible but will continue to leave out of TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........ZT




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