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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300536 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
136 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS FOR SFC OBSERVATIONS. THIS GENERALLY
TRANSITIONED THE CHANCES FOR A STRAY SHOWER AND OR A THUNDERSTORM IN
THE BIG SANDY REGION OUT TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. SOME LOW AND MID CLOUDS WILL LINGER IN BEHIND THIS AREA AS THE
RATHER ILL DEFINED WARM FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THESE
ARE PROGGED TO THIN OVERNIGHT LEAVING BEHIND MAINLY CIRRUS. AS SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEAR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD FORM IN SEVERAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEST LAID PLANS...

IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE CONVECTION MOVING NORTH FROM WESTERN
VIRGINIA WILL SLIP INTO OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS PER TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12. THEREFORE...HAVE
INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE FORECAST FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS
TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT A NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED HWO. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WAS THE GENESIS OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THAT ARE JUST NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
MOST PLACES DID STAY DRY TODAY SO THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW...THOUGH FOR PLACES THAT DID SEE RAIN
AND THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE HAD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MINIMAL DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS WHILE ALSO ADJUSTING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.
FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW ONCE THE LAST OF THE
CONVECTION FADES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

BEHIND THE FRI EVENING CONVECTION...SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD STILL OCCUR WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND NEAR WHERE
THE HEAVIER RAIN FELL. HOWEVER...RAINFALL WAS VERY LIGHT OR MISSED
THE TAF SITES...SO IFR OR LOWER VIS IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. JKL AND SJS WILL HAVE LINGERING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND THIS SHOULD ALSO LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. LOZ HAD
THE MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WE HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG AT SJS AND LOZ THROUGH 13Z AS BOT HAD AT
LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING
THE DAY ON SAT OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
18Z OR LATER...WHEN VCTS WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP






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000
FXUS63 KLMK 300502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The early morning hours should be pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by mid to late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

Look for prevailing rain showers to end around sundown at SDF/BWG,
and more toward midnight at LEX. Some light showers may linger into
the overnight, with potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300502
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014

The early morning hours should be pretty quiet across the TAF sites
as we await the next plume of gulf moisture ahead of an approaching
wave. In the meantime, expect scattered to broken mid level clouds
streaming overhead, with light SSE winds.

Will notice an increase in surface winds by mid to late morning, and
a shift to more SSW. Low and mid level clouds will increase during
this time, however should stay above the VFR threshold. Will start
prevailing rain shower and VCTS mention by early afternoon at
SDF/BWG, and by mid to late afternoon at LEX. Conditions will likely
drop to at least low MVFR in any storm, however will nail down
better timing with later issuances.

Look for prevailing rain showers to end around sundown at SDF/BWG,
and more toward midnight at LEX. Some light showers may linger into
the overnight, with potential for some MVFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......BJS




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000
FXUS63 KPAH 300459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and possibly a few storms will continue to move across
southeast Missouri overnight...but they will struggle to cross the
Mississippi River as they move into more stable air. As a
disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches our
area...the activity will eventually reach all the taf sites around
12z. Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A
break in the shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the
wake of the upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY












000
FXUS63 KPAH 300459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and possibly a few storms will continue to move across
southeast Missouri overnight...but they will struggle to cross the
Mississippi River as they move into more stable air. As a
disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere approaches our
area...the activity will eventually reach all the taf sites around
12z. Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy. A
break in the shower activity appears likely Saturday evening in the
wake of the upper level disturbance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY











000
FXUS63 KJKL 300155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEST LAID PLANS...

IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE CONVECTION MOVING NORTH FROM WESTERN
VIRGINIA WILL SLIP INTO OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS PER TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12. THEREFORE...HAVE
INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE FORECAST FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS
TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT A NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED HWO. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WAS THE GENESIS OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THAT ARE JUST NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
MOST PLACES DID STAY DRY TODAY SO THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW...THOUGH FOR PLACES THAT DID SEE RAIN
AND THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE HAD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MINIMAL DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS WHILE ALSO ADJUSTING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.
FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW ONCE THE LAST OF THE
CONVECTION FADES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR
WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
LIKELY STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
FOG AT SJS AND LOZ SINCE THEY SAW AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WHEN VCTS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE BEST LAID PLANS...

IT LOOKS LIKE SOME OF THE CONVECTION MOVING NORTH FROM WESTERN
VIRGINIA WILL SLIP INTO OUR CWA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR A STRAY STORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS PER TRENDS AND THE 00Z NAM12. THEREFORE...HAVE
INTRODUCED THEM INTO THE FORECAST FOR FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THIS
TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT A NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED HWO. THE FRESHENED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WAS THE GENESIS OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THAT ARE JUST NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
MOST PLACES DID STAY DRY TODAY SO THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW...THOUGH FOR PLACES THAT DID SEE RAIN
AND THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE HAD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MINIMAL DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS WHILE ALSO ADJUSTING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.
FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW ONCE THE LAST OF THE
CONVECTION FADES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR
WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
LIKELY STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
FOG AT SJS AND LOZ SINCE THEY SAW AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WHEN VCTS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 300125
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300125
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
925 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Updated the forecast to remove POPs for the rest of this evening.
Diurnally driven convection has diminished over our area and we now
sit in a cull before the arrival of convection ahead of an
approaching trough.  Largely the overnight period should remain dry
with scattered showers/storms re-entering southwest IN/west central
KY around sunrise.  Only made minor tweaks to temps/dewpts.  Low
temps still look to bottom out in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300040 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WAS THE GENESIS OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THAT ARE JUST NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
MOST PLACES DID STAY DRY TODAY SO THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW...THOUGH FOR PLACES THAT DID SEE RAIN
AND THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE HAD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MINIMAL DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS WHILE ALSO ADJUSTING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.
FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW ONCE THE LAST OF THE
CONVECTION FADES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR
WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
LIKELY STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
FOG AT SJS AND LOZ SINCE THEY SAW AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WHEN VCTS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300040 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WAS THE GENESIS OF A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
THAT ARE JUST NOW DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA.
MOST PLACES DID STAY DRY TODAY SO THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG
FORMING LATER TONIGHT IS LOW...THOUGH FOR PLACES THAT DID SEE RAIN
AND THE DEEPER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS DAWN.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT WILL BE HAD THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
CHANCES OF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MINIMAL DESPITE THE NEARBY BOUNDARY.
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS WHILE ALSO ADJUSTING THE LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.
FINALLY...TWEAKED THE NEAR TERM GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...
AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS WITH A ZFP AND HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW ONCE THE LAST OF THE
CONVECTION FADES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WITH THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR
WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT
LIKELY STEERING CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES LIKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
FOG AT SJS AND LOZ SINCE THEY SAW AT LEAST A TRACE OF RAIN THIS PAST
EVENING. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST WHEN VCTS WAS ADDED
TO THE TAFS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KPAH 292332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and storms will continue to make it into southeast Missouri
this evening...but they will be moving into more stable air as they
approach the Mississippi River. As a disturbance in the upper levels
of the atmosphere approaches our area...the activity will eventually
reach all the taf sites late tonight and Saturday morning.
Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY










000
FXUS63 KPAH 292332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 00z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Showers and storms will continue to make it into southeast Missouri
this evening...but they will be moving into more stable air as they
approach the Mississippi River. As a disturbance in the upper levels
of the atmosphere approaches our area...the activity will eventually
reach all the taf sites late tonight and Saturday morning.
Instability will be quite weak by that time...so predominantly
showers are expected. Thunder could occur at any time Saturday...but
it was not worth a 12 hour period of thunder in the tafs. Mainly
mvfr vsbys are expected in the more widespread showers...but vsbys
will likely be highly variable since the showers could be heavy.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...MY









000
FXUS63 KLMK 292317
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 292317
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
717 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Convection chances for this evening are pretty much over at the TAF
sites.  Expect VFR conditions overnight with increasing southerly
flow ahead of an approaching trough.  This will create a
mixy atmosphere not conducive to fog.  The next TAF challenge will
be the timing of precipitation accompanying the trough into the area
tomorrow.  The latest model guidance suggests isld-sct showers and
perhaps an isld rumble of thunder may be possible from late morning
through early afternoon.  By mid to late afternoon, we`ll start to
see more organized rounds of convection and MVFR conditions enter
SDF/BWG and then LEX by tomorrow evening.  Expect numerous rounds of
showers and storms late tomorrow through Sunday.  Winds will remain
out of the SSW declining this evening to 3-6 kts overnight, then
increasing to 7-12 kts tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 292015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 292015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 292015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 292015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Shower and thunderstorm coverage should increase from the west late
this afternoon and evening with the approach of an upper level
trough from the plains. Until then, isolated to widely scattered
convection could pop up just about anywhere across our CWA.

Precipitation chances continue to increase area wide through
Saturday night with the upper trough axis remaining to our west
combined with deepening moisture streaming across the region.
Although widespread severe weather is not expected at this time,
precipitable water values will be in excess of 2 inches both
Saturday and Saturday night, so at this time it appears that locally
heavy rainfall will be the primary threat.

Latest model runs are in decent agreement in showing the upper
trough flattening/shearing out and whats left of it moving off to
the east on Sunday, therefore decreased precipitation chances from
the west on Sunday. Sunday night there may be small precipitation
chances from the aforementioned system lingering over our far
southeast counties as well as small precipitation chances over the
western and northwestern sections along the leading edge of a
system moving out of the plains.

Although there will be little change to dewpoints in the short term,
temperatures will return to near normal readings for both Saturday
and Sunday. This scenario will keep relative humidities elevated,
but afternoon heat indices should make outdoor work and other
activities much easier to handle.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

From Monday through Wednesday morning, the WFO PAH forecast area
will be oriented along the southern border of faster westerlies at
the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. This will impress a
sharp north to south baroclinic zone across the WFO PAH forecast
area, leaving the best chances for rain across the northern 1/3 to
1/2 of the area,

From Wednesday afternoon through Friday, a broad west to east high
pressure ridge will build northward, yielding warmer temperatures
aloft and capping the potential for showers and thunderstorms across
the area. There is a slight weakness in the cap along the Interstate
64 corridor Thursday evening, with the potential of isolated
convection overnight.

The timing of convection still remains somewhat variable Monday
into Tuesday and this variability may not be resolved until it
sampled adequately in the short range guidance.

Temperatures will remain near climatological values given the zonal
flow aloft and the proximity to the baroclinic zone. The 12km NAM,
SREF, and Canadian guidance appeared to provide the most consistent
timing of the shortwaves early in the week and the building of the
ridge by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 291957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 291957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 291957
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...WITH
ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE PLAINS STATES. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW DOWN NEAR THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE...WITH A WARM FRONT DANGLING EAST SOUTHEAST DOWN INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS SPIRALING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A RETREATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...WITH SOME LOCATIONS
REPORTING IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S. DRIER AIR CAN BE FOUND DEEPER INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE...WHERE SOME DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
INTO THE 50S. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP NEAR
AND AROUND THE WARM FRONT CURRENTLY EASING ITS WAY TO THE NORTH.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH GRADUALLY SWINGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO THIS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF REGION AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AN OVERALL DECREASE IN THE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ONCE AGAIN WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02 TO 03Z...WILL HANG
ONTO A CORRIDOR OF ISOLATED POPS UNTIL THAT TIME. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS
TONIGHT...WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TOWARDS DAWN.

FOR SATURDAY...THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOUCHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK IN SOME
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY EAST...WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS CLOUD COVER.
LATER IN THE DAY...DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET ENSUES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE BLENDED
12 HOUR POPS CAME IN A BIT LEANER OVERALL...HOWEVER WAS A BIT LEARY
TO BACK OFF TOO MUCH WITH SUCH DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTING IN LATE. FOR
NOW...MAINTAINED A GOOD GRADIENT...WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
WEST...AND MUCH LESS IN THE EAST.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN...BRINGING
A GOOD CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINS TO MOST LOCATIONS BY DAWN SUNDAY
MORNING. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EAST. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE
WEAKER SIDE AND OVERALL FORCING IS MODEST...SO HAVE MENTIONED JUST A
CHANCE OF THUNDER. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME...SO HEAVY RAINS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE...AND WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER
PATTERN AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. THE DATA STILL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A LARGE WELL DEFINED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...A LESS
WELL DEFINED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ALSO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...BRINGING WITH IT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A SIGNIFICANT
FEED OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...AND DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS TALL AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES STILL APPEARING IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY DURING PEAK HEATING.
ONCE THE INITIAL TROUGH EXITS TO OUR EAST MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND
MUCH WEAKER ONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND IT. THIS IS WHERE THE
MODELS BECOME A BIT DISJOINTED WITH ONE ANOTHER. THE OVERALL VIEW IS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE MAIN QUESTIONS WILL BE THE TIMING
AND THE EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
BASED ON ALL THIS...BY FAR THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...WHICH IS THE TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES...WITH A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE PRECIP FORECAST AFTER MONDAY
NIGHT. WENT WITH GENERAL THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD DUE TO THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FEED SHOWING UP IN ALL THE MODEL
DATA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MIGHT INCREASE SOME TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK PER THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF. WITH THAT MODEL TYPICALLY BEING
THE MOST RELIABLE...THE SUPERBLEND MODEL DATA INGEST WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE AT OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BOTH DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT TIME PERIODS AS PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS
EACH DAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH NIGHTLY LOWS
COMING IN AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS RULE WILL BE
SUNDAY...WHEN THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 80
DEGREES...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KLMK 291911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main challenge in this TAF issuance is afternoon convection and how
it will impact SDF and LEX. Based on what is still a fledgling cu
field, the effective boundary is roughly over SDF and still south of
LEX. Given recent progress, this boundary should be solidly north of
Louisville by the time it triggers any T-storms. Tougher call at
LEX, as there appears to be a narrow window for storms in the middle
of the afternoon. Once the southerly flow becomes better
established, there is actually less boundary-layer moisture as is
evident in the 12Z OHX sounding. Will start with a couple hours of
VCTS but otherwise just a scattered diurnal cu field.

Not too concerned with fog overnight as southerly flow will keep the
boundary layer somewhat mixy. Precip shield could start to creep
into BWG late morning, and SDF around midday Saturday. Not confident
enough in how solid this area of precip will be, so most likely will
just carry VCTS late in the TAF. LEX should stay VFR and rain-free
through 18Z Sat. Winds will pick up to 10-12 kt with mixing, but do
not expect enough heating to generate much gustiness.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291911
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Warm and unsettled pattern will gain a bit more focus over the next
36 hrs. For now, a summertime regime continues with a weak surface
boundary lifting north across the Ohio Valley. Moisture pooling
along the boundary is responsible for a CAPE axis running from near
SDF to just south of LEX, and just ahead of it there is an enhanced
cu field over the Bluegrass region. Slightly drier air has worked
into south-central Kentucky, as surface dewpoints have dropped to
around 60F.

Any convection this afternoon will be focused along the
aforementioned boundary, so will initialize with isolated T-storms
roughly along and north of I-64. Wind fields have strengthened just
enough that any thunderstorms should be more progressive than the
last couple of days, and the forcing should be out of the area
before sundown.

For Saturday the S/SW flow will deepen and heights will fall as the
sharp upper trof over the Plains opens up and lifts toward the Great
Lakes. Precip chances will increase from west to east through the
day, with likely POPs creeping into south-central KY from the
Pennyrile region late in the day. Otherwise will stay in the chance
range until evening.

Saturated column and modest SW low-level jetting Saturday night will
support likely POPs across the board. Most likely QPF will be around
half an inch in some areas, but models do point to a swath of 1-2
inch rainfall where the best forcing sets up. What little CAPE there
is will become quite tall and skinny, so will limit thunder to
chance. Confidence in the placement of any heavier rainfall is not
high enough to issue a Flood (or Flash Flood) Watch this early, but
later shifts may need to reassess as confidence in the placement of
this heavier rain swath increases.

Above normal temps will continue, but there is real bust potential
on Saturday highs if the precip is quicker moving in than
advertised.


Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...A cloudy and potentially wet Sunday with warmer and more
scattered precipitation for Labor Day...

Upper air pattern early Sunday will feature zonal flow along the
northern tier of the CONUS, with sub-tropical ridging firmly
established near the Georgia coast. Two shortwaves of note: the
first will feature low pressure moving over Michigan early Sunday,
while a stronger shortwave will just be ejecting eastwards of the
northern Rockies.

The Commonwealth and southern Indiana will light right in the middle
of a tropical airmass early Sunday, as an arc of very humid air with
PWATs of greater than 2 inches is forecast to extend from a
disturbance in the western Gulf through the eastern Great Lakes.
Showers, with some embedded thunder will likely continue from
Saturday night right into a good portion of Sunday. Various models
agree with the assessment from the Weather Prediction Center of
substantial rains during this Saturday night-Sunday period with a
swath of widespread 1 to 2 inch rains with possibly locally higher
amounts. Exactly where this falls is still to be determined, with
the NAM showing the heaviest accumulations along the Ohio River with
the latest GFS showing this a bit farther south. Localized runoff
problems may develop where any showers repeatedly move over a
specific location. Highs Sunday may not exceed the lower 80s due to
cloudiness.

By late on Labor Day a surface cyclone associated with this second
wave ejecting from the Rockies will deepen north of Lake Superior.
The Lower Ohio Valley will lie in a humid airmass left over from
Sunday`s disturbance. Temperatures will be warmer, reaching the
upper 80s, with isolated to possibly scattered afternoon to evening
thunderstorms.

By Tuesday, this second cyclone will bring a frontal boundary that
will likely lay along an east/west line somewhere across Indiana and
Illinois. This front will likely weaken and dissipate late Tuesday
or early Wednesday along or north of the Ohio River. Widespread
convection is likely Tuesday north of us. However some organized
storms may reach as far south as southern Indiana during the
afternoon or evening. Only isolated unorganized convection is likely
farther south towards Tennessee Tuesday afternoon and evening. Hot
humid weather will continue Tuesday with highs around 90.

.Wednesday through Friday...

A fast zonal flow will set up Wednesday through Friday with a
relatively robust jet aligned almost exactly over our northern
border with Canada. Strong ridging will become established across
practically the entire southern tier of the CONUS. This pattern will
mimic ones that we occasionally see during the "dog days" of August.
Expect generally light winds with hot humid weather and warm muggy
nights this whole period with highs near 90 and lows at 70 or above.
Isolated thunderstorms may develop each afternoon. However no
organized precipitation is expected.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Main challenge in this TAF issuance is afternoon convection and how
it will impact SDF and LEX. Based on what is still a fledgling cu
field, the effective boundary is roughly over SDF and still south of
LEX. Given recent progress, this boundary should be solidly north of
Louisville by the time it triggers any T-storms. Tougher call at
LEX, as there appears to be a narrow window for storms in the middle
of the afternoon. Once the southerly flow becomes better
established, there is actually less boundary-layer moisture as is
evident in the 12Z OHX sounding. Will start with a couple hours of
VCTS but otherwise just a scattered diurnal cu field.

Not too concerned with fog overnight as southerly flow will keep the
boundary layer somewhat mixy. Precip shield could start to creep
into BWG late morning, and SDF around midday Saturday. Not confident
enough in how solid this area of precip will be, so most likely will
just carry VCTS late in the TAF. LEX should stay VFR and rain-free
through 18Z Sat. Winds will pick up to 10-12 kt with mixing, but do
not expect enough heating to generate much gustiness.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 291733 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...DH/RJP
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 291733 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1233 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Aside from isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms at all
terminals this afternoon, shower and thunderstorms activity will
increase from the west after midnight with the approach of a
frontal boundary. IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys are possible with the
passage of the showers and storms. Outside of any wind gusts
associated with convection, winds will remain out of the southeast
to south AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM/SHORT TERM...DH/RJP
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS...ALIGNING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASES TO THE NORTH. WILL FRESHEN UP
SOME OF THE NEAR TERM SKY COVER AND POPS...AS WELL AS HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
JUST A TOUCH OF STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY AND
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN AND AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
FAINT CU LINE SHOWN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE TN/KY
BORDER REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY ADVERTISED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS...ALIGNING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASES TO THE NORTH. WILL FRESHEN UP
SOME OF THE NEAR TERM SKY COVER AND POPS...AS WELL AS HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
JUST A TOUCH OF STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY AND
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN AND AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
FAINT CU LINE SHOWN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE TN/KY
BORDER REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY ADVERTISED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS...ALIGNING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASES TO THE NORTH. WILL FRESHEN UP
SOME OF THE NEAR TERM SKY COVER AND POPS...AS WELL AS HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
JUST A TOUCH OF STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY AND
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN AND AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
FAINT CU LINE SHOWN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE TN/KY
BORDER REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY ADVERTISED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW SMALL SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO
INITIATE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80
CORRIDORS...ALIGNING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. THE LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AT LEAST THE THREAT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY EASES TO THE NORTH. WILL FRESHEN UP
SOME OF THE NEAR TERM SKY COVER AND POPS...AS WELL AS HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
JUST A TOUCH OF STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY AND
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN AND AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
FAINT CU LINE SHOWN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE TN/KY
BORDER REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY ADVERTISED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 114 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING A THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY DIRECT HIT FROM A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BRING TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE VISIBILITIES...HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO JUST MAINTAIN VCTS AT THE
TAF SITES WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. ONCE THE CONVECTION DIES
OFF THIS EVENING...EXPECT SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...BUT LIKELY STEERING CLEAR
OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AVERAGE OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 291405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALLEY FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING...WITH
JUST A TOUCH OF STRATUS LINGERING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE BIG SANDY AND
CUMBERLAND RIVER BASINS. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH HIGHS
TOPPING OUT IN AND AROUND THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST LOCATIONS. A
FAINT CU LINE SHOWN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE TN/KY
BORDER REVEALS THE PRESENCE OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
CONVECTION ALREADY ADVERTISED. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z
FRIDAY...LEAVING PREVAILING VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED INITIALLY AT LOZ AND SME. SJS
HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN AIRPORT MINS AND VFR...BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE VFR
BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 17Z...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD
EASTERN KY. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR OR LOWER FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL. OF THE
TAF SITES...KSJS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS LIFTING INTO THE AREA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291202 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z
FRIDAY...LEAVING PREVAILING VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED INITIALLY AT LOZ AND SME. SJS
HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN AIRPORT MINS AND VFR...BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE VFR
BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 17Z...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD
EASTERN KY. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR OR LOWER FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL. OF THE
TAF SITES...KSJS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS LIFTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291202 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP A BIT BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH AROUND 9 AM EDT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME OF THE RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE START OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MAY NEED TO BE PUSHED BACK A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LINGERING IFR OR WORSE VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z
FRIDAY...LEAVING PREVAILING VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THE TAF
SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS ANTICIPATED INITIALLY AT LOZ AND SME. SJS
HAS BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN AIRPORT MINS AND VFR...BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE VFR
BY 13Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED...GENERALLY AFTER 17Z...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD
EASTERN KY. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS
COULD EXPERIENCE MVFR OR LOWER FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL. OF THE
TAF SITES...KSJS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME OF THIS LIFTING INTO THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Once MVFR/IFR fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southerly at
5 to 10 knots after 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact western terminals after midnight. Added PROB30 mention at
KCGI and KPAH as a result.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Once MVFR/IFR fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southerly at
5 to 10 knots after 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact western terminals after midnight. Added PROB30 mention at
KCGI and KPAH as a result.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Once MVFR/IFR fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southerly at
5 to 10 knots after 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact western terminals after midnight. Added PROB30 mention at
KCGI and KPAH as a result.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 291146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Once MVFR/IFR fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions are
expected through the forecast period. Winds will become southerly at
5 to 10 knots after 15Z. Showers and thunderstorms may begin to
impact western terminals after midnight. Added PROB30 mention at
KCGI and KPAH as a result.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KLMK 291048
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
648 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Seeing a few light returns just north of our IN counties. These are
developing on the north edge of a theta-e ridge currently over KHNB.
Latest RUC keeps this going on for a few more hours before the
frontal lift dominates the rest of the morning.  Added in some
isolated showers over the west this morning before switching over to
storms this afternoon over the northeast. Rest of forecast pretty
much on track.

Climate Note: BWG received 1.16 inches of rain, bringing their
monthly total to 9.26". This total is the second wettest August on
record for that station. An additional 0.08" over the next 3 days
will tie the record, set back in 1926.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

Those storms should exit to the northeast this evening before
another round comes in from the west late tonight. This action will
be as a low-level jet aids in development over the Bootheel region
that will shift eastward toward daybreak. Precipitable water values
will climb to near 2 inches during the day. The main focus for
heavier storms will be along another front to our northwest, but any
heating over our region should be able to produce scattered storms.
The main problem with these storms will be the torrential rainfall,
given the high atmospheric moisture. Storm motion vectors indicate
enough motion that we should be able to avoid flash flooding, but
areas that receive multiple rounds of storms could see some minor
flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Unsettled Weather Through the Holiday Weekend and into Next Week...

Multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorms are expected through the
long term with storms likely for a portion of the holiday weekend. A
weakening upper level trough will cross the upper Midwest Saturday
and move into the Great Lakes region by Sunday morning. Another
vortmax will track northeast through the upper level flow and into
the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface
southerly flow will remain in place with high pressure centered off
the east coast.

The best chance for showers and storms during the long term will be
right at the beginning on Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
level disturbances move through the area. Wind fields are not overly
impressive, but a few strong storms will be possible with gusty
winds. However, soundings do reveal a very saturated atmosphere with
PWAT values rising to over 2 inches. Long skinny CAPE is also
suggestive of very heavy rain. Storms should be moving somewhat
quicker than previous episodes of heavy rain we have seen this
month. However, given torrential rainfall potential from storms, if
there is any training some minor flooding issues will be possible.
This would particularly be a concern in urban areas.

Another vortmax will set off another round of showers and storms
Monday afternoon. With drier air filtering in at mid levels PWATs
will drop Monday and heavy rainfall should be less of a concern. By
Tuesday a frontal boundary will drop south towards the area from the
north. This boundary looks to get hung up north of the forecast
area, though the models do have some differences in the details
towards the end of the forecast period. Regardless, scattered
showers and storms will be possible through Thursday along and south
of this front.

Temperatures for the most part will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The exception will be Sunday. With all the clouds and precipitation
in the area temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

KBWG had a few clouds go over the last couple of hours, which
generally has kept them in the MVFR range for vsby. Could still get
an hour or two of IFR conditions down there before going VFR the
rest of the day. May see some light showers west of KSDF by late
morning. The best chance for a storm there would be in the mid
afternoon, but chance is still low enough to keep out of TAFs at
this point. Better chance continues to be at KLEX, as a front moves
north across the region and combines with daytime heating to produce
scattered storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 290836
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

Main forecast concern is the potential for showers and thunderstorms
over the Labor Day holiday weekend.

The weak frontal boundary that provided the needed convergence for
scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon is forecast to
shift north of the region today. In its wake, a drier atmospheric
profile and weak capping aloft should reduce the probability and
coverage of precipitation today. However, with multiple models
indicating the approach of weak upper level energy and a still
relatively moist atmosphere, will maintain a slight chance mention
this afternoon in northern and western portions of the area where
convective inhibition is the weakest. Temperatures should reach or
just exceed 90 in most spots. However, drier dew points should keep
heat index readings below the century mark in most areas.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west tonight and Saturday. Additional energy will arrive
from the south Saturday night, which will bring better chances of
showers and thunderstorms to southern and eastern portions of the
area through Sunday.

All in all, models remain in general agreement, but there are
subtle differences. For instance, the ECMWF remains stubbornly slow
in its onset of precipitation tonight and Saturday. This is contrary
to the preferred NAM/GFS. In contrast, the NAM seems too slow in
tapering precipitation off from the west on Sunday, so a GFS/ECMWF
blend is preferred here.

While a few strong storms cannot be ruled out, the main concern
during this time will be locally heavy rain--particularly Saturday
night and Sunday over the southern and eastern 2/3 of the area.
Copious moisture will stream into the region with deep southwest
flow and precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.
Basin average QPF is currently forecast between one half and one
inch areawide. However, the pattern is conducive to training storms,
which could produce multiple inches in one spot if the right
conditions come together. Something to keep in mind if you will be
camping or enjoying the outdoors this holiday weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KJKL 290738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
PREVAILING VFR. AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 8Z AND 13Z. THIS MIGHT DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE AT SJS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 11Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...AS
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
PREVAILING VFR. AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 8Z AND 13Z. THIS MIGHT DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE AT SJS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 11Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...AS
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
PREVAILING VFR. AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 8Z AND 13Z. THIS MIGHT DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE AT SJS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 11Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...AS
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 290738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY THIS MORNING AND EXTENDED NORTH AND
NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY REGION. OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
CALIFORNIA. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA
SOUTH INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS HAS LEFT THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITH THE LEAST CLOUD COVER.

DURING THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THOUGH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL DEPART TO
THE EAST TODAY. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS WELL. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
INCREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD ON SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE DEPARTED SFC HIGH AND THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL HAVE A BIT OF A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT EARLY ON SATURDAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE AND TODAY...SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR
ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BEFORE SUNRISE...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A
COUPLE OF SPOTS. THE HARLAN AIRPORT KI35 HAS THE LOWEST VIS AT
PRESENT. HOWEVER...ANY DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD WITH
THE PASSING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND SOME MIXINESS WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SFC HIGH. OTHERWISE...THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A WARM FRONT AND
COMBINE WITH A WEAK APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD GENERALLY ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
SHRA AND TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
ON SATURDAY...LEAVING THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR. A WARM AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN ALL LEVELS LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS PW IS ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES OR
MORE IN MOST PLACES LATE. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR SAT REMAINS VERY
LIMITED AND THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z GFS ACTUALLY HAVE SFC DEWPOINTS
DECREASING FOR A WHILE ON SATURDAY POSSIBLY FROM THE DOWNSLOPE LOW
LEVEL COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. IN ADDITION...THERE IS ALSO A MID LEVEL
CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS WELL. ANY CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE LATE
IN THE DAY OR EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. TEMPERATURES ON SAT SHOULD APPROACH
OR REACH 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON ADVERTISING A FAIRLY SHARP
TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THUS...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH WE WILL SEE BETTER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AROUND THIS PERIOD. WE MAY SEE A LULL FROM
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ON SATURDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. PW`S WILL CLIMB TO 1.8 TO 2 INCHES
DURING THIS PERIOD..YIELDING THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THESE VALUES ARE NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE AUGUST.
FORTUNATELY...STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT SLOW
MOVING STORMS. MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND ANY TRAINING STORMS
WHICH MAY OCCUR. REGARDLESS...STORM WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS WITH GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT BY LATE SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASING. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...WITH EASTERN KENTUCKY RESIDING ON THE
NORTH EDGE OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DOME. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA
SUSCEPTIBLE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERALS OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK.
THUS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER MAY STAY UNSETTLED WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AND PERHAPS BEYOND. THIS WARRANTS AT LEAST CHANCE POPS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. DOES NOT APPEAR WE WILL SEE ANY
FORCING QUITE AS STRONG AS THIS WEEKEND...BUT ANY WEAK SHORTWAVE
THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS. GIVEN THE TENDENCY
FOR BETTER COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS THIS TIME OF
YEAR...PLAN TO GO WITH A DIURNAL TREND WITH POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY STAY NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
PREVAILING VFR. AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 8Z AND 13Z. THIS MIGHT DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE AT SJS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 11Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...AS
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 290704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

Those storms should exit to the northeast this evening before
another round comes in from the west late tonight. This action will
be as a low-level jet aids in development over the Bootheel region
that will shift eastward toward daybreak. Precipitable water values
will climb to near 2 inches during the day. The main focus for
heavier storms will be along another front to our northwest, but any
heating over our region should be able to produce scattered storms.
The main problem with these storms will be the torrential rainfall,
given the high atmospheric moisture. Storm motion vectors indicate
enough motion that we should be able to avoid flash flooding, but
areas that receive multiple rounds of storms could see some minor
flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Unsettled Weather Through the Holiday Weekend and into Next Week...

Multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorms are expected through the
long term with storms likely for a portion of the holiday weekend. A
weakening upper level trough will cross the upper Midwest Saturday
and move into the Great Lakes region by Sunday morning. Another
vortmax will track northeast through the upper level flow and into
the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface
southerly flow will remain in place with high pressure centered off
the east coast.

The best chance for showers and storms during the long term will be
right at the beginning on Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
level disturbances move through the area. Wind fields are not overly
impressive, but a few strong storms will be possible with gusty
winds. However, soundings do reveal a very saturated atmosphere with
PWAT values rising to over 2 inches. Long skinny CAPE is also
suggestive of very heavy rain. Storms should be moving somewhat
quicker than previous episodes of heavy rain we have seen this
month. However, given torrential rainfall potential from storms, if
there is any training some minor flooding issues will be possible.
This would particularly be a concern in urban areas.

Another vortmax will set off another round of showers and storms
Monday afternoon. With drier air filtering in at mid levels PWATs
will drop Monday and heavy rainfall should be less of a concern. By
Tuesday a frontal boundary will drop south towards the area from the
north. This boundary looks to get hung up north of the forecast
area, though the models do have some differences in the details
towards the end of the forecast period. Regardless, scattered
showers and storms will be possible through Thursday along and south
of this front.

Temperatures for the most part will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The exception will be Sunday. With all the clouds and precipitation
in the area temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

First concern is fog formation down at KBWG early this morning.
Already have MVFR conditions now, and vsby trend forecasts give a
good shot at IFR if not LIFR by daybreak. Bust potential could come
from a deck of clouds along the KY/TN border this hour, so will have
to see if that maintains itself on the way to the terminal.

KLEX did not get rain today, and consequently, the vsby is still at
10 miles this hour. With a solid east wind, have backed off on fog
potential there and gone with a tempo group for a few hours around
daybreak.

Next up will be dealing with scattered storms forming as a warm
front lifts north across the region today. The best chance for
development will be where this front coincides with peak heating.
Think this will happen over the Bluegrass later this afternoon. Have
enough confidence to go Prob30 for now, even though statistical
guidance is low. Cannot rule out development near KSDF, but think
chances are just a bit lower there so kept it out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
304 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

Weak frontal boundary is roughly located along our southern border
this hour. This boundary is forecast to lift northward today, with a
wind shift from easterly ahead of it to southerly behind it. Lift
along this front as well as instability from late afternoon heating
should produce isolated to scattered storms, with the best chance
over southern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of Kentucky. The
stronger storms will produce brief gusty winds and heavy rain.

Those storms should exit to the northeast this evening before
another round comes in from the west late tonight. This action will
be as a low-level jet aids in development over the Bootheel region
that will shift eastward toward daybreak. Precipitable water values
will climb to near 2 inches during the day. The main focus for
heavier storms will be along another front to our northwest, but any
heating over our region should be able to produce scattered storms.
The main problem with these storms will be the torrential rainfall,
given the high atmospheric moisture. Storm motion vectors indicate
enough motion that we should be able to avoid flash flooding, but
areas that receive multiple rounds of storms could see some minor
flooding, especially in poor drainage areas.

Temperatures will continue above normal this period.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Unsettled Weather Through the Holiday Weekend and into Next Week...

Multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorms are expected through the
long term with storms likely for a portion of the holiday weekend. A
weakening upper level trough will cross the upper Midwest Saturday
and move into the Great Lakes region by Sunday morning. Another
vortmax will track northeast through the upper level flow and into
the Lower Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday. At the surface
southerly flow will remain in place with high pressure centered off
the east coast.

The best chance for showers and storms during the long term will be
right at the beginning on Saturday night and Sunday as the upper
level disturbances move through the area. Wind fields are not overly
impressive, but a few strong storms will be possible with gusty
winds. However, soundings do reveal a very saturated atmosphere with
PWAT values rising to over 2 inches. Long skinny CAPE is also
suggestive of very heavy rain. Storms should be moving somewhat
quicker than previous episodes of heavy rain we have seen this
month. However, given torrential rainfall potential from storms, if
there is any training some minor flooding issues will be possible.
This would particularly be a concern in urban areas.

Another vortmax will set off another round of showers and storms
Monday afternoon. With drier air filtering in at mid levels PWATs
will drop Monday and heavy rainfall should be less of a concern. By
Tuesday a frontal boundary will drop south towards the area from the
north. This boundary looks to get hung up north of the forecast
area, though the models do have some differences in the details
towards the end of the forecast period. Regardless, scattered
showers and storms will be possible through Thursday along and south
of this front.

Temperatures for the most part will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.
The exception will be Sunday. With all the clouds and precipitation
in the area temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 80s. Lows
will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

First concern is fog formation down at KBWG early this morning.
Already have MVFR conditions now, and vsby trend forecasts give a
good shot at IFR if not LIFR by daybreak. Bust potential could come
from a deck of clouds along the KY/TN border this hour, so will have
to see if that maintains itself on the way to the terminal.

KLEX did not get rain today, and consequently, the vsby is still at
10 miles this hour. With a solid east wind, have backed off on fog
potential there and gone with a tempo group for a few hours around
daybreak.

Next up will be dealing with scattered storms forming as a warm
front lifts north across the region today. The best chance for
development will be where this front coincides with peak heating.
Think this will happen over the Bluegrass later this afternoon. Have
enough confidence to go Prob30 for now, even though statistical
guidance is low. Cannot rule out development near KSDF, but think
chances are just a bit lower there so kept it out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 290640
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS63 KPAH 290640
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 135 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

The first half of the long term forecast period looks much the
same, wet/active with daily Pops. This occurs as the flow
transitions from the mean ridge, to a more zonal flow pattern, as
a long wave trof/associated boundary lay out somewhere across the
mid MS/lower OH river valley.

Toward the back half of the long term forecast period, upper level
heights rise in response to broader ridging across the southern
U.S., and the net effect is to shunt pcpn chances out of our area.
We`ll thus taper from mid to high chance cat pops early in the
week, to slgt chance mentions or negligible pops by the end of the
week.

Temps won`t deviate much thru the period, averaging highs in the
upper 80s/around 90, and lows around 70/lower 70s, through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290601 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
EXTENDED NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY
REGION. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA SOUTH
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY
THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING. HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT OBSERVATION DATA.

SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
OVERNIGHT...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS. HOWEVER...
IT SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AGAIN TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
PREVAILING VFR. AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 8Z AND 13Z. THIS MIGHT DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE AT SJS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 11Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...AS
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290601 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
201 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
EXTENDED NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND THE OH VALLEY
REGION. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. MEANWHILE...A BOUNDARY IS STALLED OUT FROM SOUTHEAST VA SOUTH
INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND EAST TN AND THEN NORTHWEST TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS POINT AROUND THE RIDGE...ESPECIALLY
THE FAR WEST AND THE NORTH. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE SFC HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER RIDGE
DOMINATING. HOURLY TEMPS...DEWPOINTS AND WINDS WERE FRESHENED UP
BASED ON THE RECENT OBSERVATION DATA.

SOME AREAS OF VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED OR ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
OVERNIGHT...AND MIGHT BECOME DENSE IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS. HOWEVER...
IT SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AGAIN TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
PREVAILING VFR. AT THE TAF SITES...MAINLY MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED FOR A
FEW HOURS BETWEEN ABOUT 8Z AND 13Z. THIS MIGHT DROP INTO THE IFR
RANGE AT SJS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND 11Z. OTHERWISE...ONCE THE
FOG DISSIPATES... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 16Z...AS
A BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH RETURNS NORTH AS WARM
FRONT. VIS AND OR CIGS COULD DROP BRIEFLY TO IFR OR LOWER IN ANY
LOCATION THAT IS DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY ANY TSRA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection has faded with the loss of daytime heating. Forecasts
have been updated to remove essentially all POPs for the rest of the
night. The lone exception is from roughly Jasper to Brandenburg,
where another boundary is still trying to generate convection along
the edge of the higher-PWAT air mass. Believe that this will either
dissipate or move slowly west into southwest Indiana by midnight.

Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Surface boundary near the KY/TN border has interacted with a
moisture-rich air mass over western Kentucky. Slow-moving storms
have produced torrential rainfall and a few marginal severe and
sub-severe gusts,mainly near the Ford and Cumberland Parkways.
Forecast tweaks the last couple hrs have been to tighten the
gradient in POPs, with high-end scattered to low-end likely around
BWG and points to the south and west.

Similar to last night, expect this convection to dissipate fairly
quickly after sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

First concern is fog formation down at KBWG early this morning.
Already have MVFR conditions now, and vsby trend forecasts give a
good shot at IFR if not LIFR by daybreak. Bust potential could come
from a deck of clouds along the KY/TN border this hour, so will have
to see if that maintains itself on the way to the terminal.

KLEX did not get rain today, and consequently, the vsby is still at
10 miles this hour. With a solid east wind, have backed off on fog
potential there and gone with a tempo group for a few hours around
daybreak.

Next up will be dealing with scattered storms forming as a warm
front lifts north across the region today. The best chance for
development will be where this front coincides with peak heating.
Think this will happen over the Bluegrass later this afternoon. Have
enough confidence to go Prob30 for now, even though statistical
guidance is low. Cannot rule out development near KSDF, but think
chances are just a bit lower there so kept it out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 290520
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection has faded with the loss of daytime heating. Forecasts
have been updated to remove essentially all POPs for the rest of the
night. The lone exception is from roughly Jasper to Brandenburg,
where another boundary is still trying to generate convection along
the edge of the higher-PWAT air mass. Believe that this will either
dissipate or move slowly west into southwest Indiana by midnight.

Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Surface boundary near the KY/TN border has interacted with a
moisture-rich air mass over western Kentucky. Slow-moving storms
have produced torrential rainfall and a few marginal severe and
sub-severe gusts,mainly near the Ford and Cumberland Parkways.
Forecast tweaks the last couple hrs have been to tighten the
gradient in POPs, with high-end scattered to low-end likely around
BWG and points to the south and west.

Similar to last night, expect this convection to dissipate fairly
quickly after sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Fri Aug 29 2014

First concern is fog formation down at KBWG early this morning.
Already have MVFR conditions now, and vsby trend forecasts give a
good shot at IFR if not LIFR by daybreak. Bust potential could come
from a deck of clouds along the KY/TN border this hour, so will have
to see if that maintains itself on the way to the terminal.

KLEX did not get rain today, and consequently, the vsby is still at
10 miles this hour. With a solid east wind, have backed off on fog
potential there and gone with a tempo group for a few hours around
daybreak.

Next up will be dealing with scattered storms forming as a warm
front lifts north across the region today. The best chance for
development will be where this front coincides with peak heating.
Think this will happen over the Bluegrass later this afternoon. Have
enough confidence to go Prob30 for now, even though statistical
guidance is low. Cannot rule out development near KSDF, but think
chances are just a bit lower there so kept it out for now.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 290440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 290440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 290440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KPAH 290440
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR fog expected at all sites by 09z, with drops to IFR possible.
Light to calm winds overnight will become south around 6 kts by 15z
with VFR conditions through the day. Isolated shra possible in the
afternoon, with shra/tstm chances increasing from the west after
00z, but chances are too low to include in TAFS at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KJKL 290206
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1006 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED AGAIN TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 290152
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
952 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection has faded with the loss of daytime heating. Forecasts
have been updated to remove essentially all POPs for the rest of the
night. The lone exception is from roughly Jasper to Brandenburg,
where another boundary is still trying to generate convection along
the edge of the higher-PWAT air mass. Believe that this will either
dissipate or move slowly west into southwest Indiana by midnight.

Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Surface boundary near the KY/TN border has interacted with a
moisture-rich air mass over western Kentucky. Slow-moving storms
have produced torrential rainfall and a few marginal severe and
sub-severe gusts, mainly near the Ford and Cumberland Parkways.
Forecast tweaks the last couple hrs have been to tighten the
gradient in POPs, with high-end scattered to low-end likely around
BWG and points to the south and west.

Similar to last night, expect this convection to dissipate fairly
quickly after sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Initial challenge will be any lingering convection around BWG. Will
make that call at press time based on radar trends, and if anything
does impact the field directly it will go IFR. Otherwise prevailing
VFR across the board through the evening.

Other challenge is fog potential toward daybreak. Expect BWG and LEX
to see restricted visibilities after midnight, going down to at
least MVFR. Will hit BWG a little harder, and depending on how much
more it continues to rain there, may even go with IFR for at least a
couple hrs near daybreak.

Surface boundary currently near the KY/TN line is progged to wave
north on Friday, and will bring our winds up out of the south in the
afternoon. Speeds will remain below 10 kt, with scattered diurnal
cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 290152
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
952 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection has faded with the loss of daytime heating. Forecasts
have been updated to remove essentially all POPs for the rest of the
night. The lone exception is from roughly Jasper to Brandenburg,
where another boundary is still trying to generate convection along
the edge of the higher-PWAT air mass. Believe that this will either
dissipate or move slowly west into southwest Indiana by midnight.

Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Surface boundary near the KY/TN border has interacted with a
moisture-rich air mass over western Kentucky. Slow-moving storms
have produced torrential rainfall and a few marginal severe and
sub-severe gusts, mainly near the Ford and Cumberland Parkways.
Forecast tweaks the last couple hrs have been to tighten the
gradient in POPs, with high-end scattered to low-end likely around
BWG and points to the south and west.

Similar to last night, expect this convection to dissipate fairly
quickly after sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Initial challenge will be any lingering convection around BWG. Will
make that call at press time based on radar trends, and if anything
does impact the field directly it will go IFR. Otherwise prevailing
VFR across the board through the evening.

Other challenge is fog potential toward daybreak. Expect BWG and LEX
to see restricted visibilities after midnight, going down to at
least MVFR. Will hit BWG a little harder, and depending on how much
more it continues to rain there, may even go with IFR for at least a
couple hrs near daybreak.

Surface boundary currently near the KY/TN line is progged to wave
north on Friday, and will bring our winds up out of the south in the
afternoon. Speeds will remain below 10 kt, with scattered diurnal
cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
846 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 290046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
846 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR VALLEYS OF
LARGE STREAMS. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...LEAVING
VFR. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 282311
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 282311
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

UPDATED TO BLEND LATEST OBS INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS...WITHOUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KLMK 282243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Surface boundary near the KY/TN border has interacted with a
moisture-rich air mass over western Kentucky. Slow-moving storms
have produced torrential rainfall and a few marginal severe and
sub-severe gusts,mainly near the Ford and Cumberland Parkways.
Forecast tweaks the last couple hrs have been to tighten the
gradient in POPs, with high-end scattered to low-end likely around
BWG and points to the south and west.

Similar to last night, expect this convection to dissipate fairly
quickly after sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Initial challenge will be any lingering convection around BWG. Will
make that call at press time based on radar trends, and if anything
does impact the field directly it will go IFR. Otherwise prevailing
VFR across the board through the evening.

Other challenge is fog potential toward daybreak. Expect BWG and LEX
to see restricted visibilities after midnight, going down to at
least MVFR. Will hit BWG a little harder, and depending on how much
more it continues to rain there, may even go with IFR for at least a
couple hrs near daybreak.

Surface boundary currently near the KY/TN line is progged to wave
north on Friday, and will bring our winds up out of the south in the
afternoon. Speeds will remain below 10 kt, with scattered diurnal
cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 282243
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
643 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Surface boundary near the KY/TN border has interacted with a
moisture-rich air mass over western Kentucky. Slow-moving storms
have produced torrential rainfall and a few marginal severe and
sub-severe gusts,mainly near the Ford and Cumberland Parkways.
Forecast tweaks the last couple hrs have been to tighten the
gradient in POPs, with high-end scattered to low-end likely around
BWG and points to the south and west.

Similar to last night, expect this convection to dissipate fairly
quickly after sunset.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Initial challenge will be any lingering convection around BWG. Will
make that call at press time based on radar trends, and if anything
does impact the field directly it will go IFR. Otherwise prevailing
VFR across the board through the evening.

Other challenge is fog potential toward daybreak. Expect BWG and LEX
to see restricted visibilities after midnight, going down to at
least MVFR. Will hit BWG a little harder, and depending on how much
more it continues to rain there, may even go with IFR for at least a
couple hrs near daybreak.

Surface boundary currently near the KY/TN line is progged to wave
north on Friday, and will bring our winds up out of the south in the
afternoon. Speeds will remain below 10 kt, with scattered diurnal
cu.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 281955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigtate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281955
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
255 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary bisecting our CWA from NW-SE
should begin to dissipate through the evening hours.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain in the same general area
overnight, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front during
the day. This will place our region in the warm sector, but widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the far
northern and western sections where capping will be weakest.

Precipitation chances area wide increase starting Friday night as a
weather system approaches from the plains. As this system draws
closer to our CWA Friday night, precipitation chances will increase
from the west. Unfortunately precipitation coverage will be highest
Saturday and Saturday night which will likely put some what of a
damper on plans for the holiday weekend.

Through the short term period and beyond, even though heat index
values are expected to remain below advisory levels, persons across
the lower Ohio valley still need to take all of the necessary
precautions to mitigtate the effects from high heat and humidity
over the upcoming holiday weekend and through at least the middle of
next week as temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s through the period along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

At the beginning of the extended forecast period, the closed low
over the northern Intermountain Region shears northeast into the
western Great Lakes on Saturday, followed by a weak split flow early
Sunday.

From Sunday evening onward, a series of shortwaves spread along the
Central and Northern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley into
a faster baroclinic flow. The WFO PAH forecast area is briefly
inserted into the faster flow on Monday. leading to slight higher
chances of rain across the northern half of the WFO PAH forecast
area.

Unlike Wednesday`s model runs, the latest model runs have shifted
the faster flow further north on Tuesday, building the southern U.S.
ridge into the area a little earlier and faster than previously
forecast. With this in mind, reduced PoP coverage during the latter
part of Tuesday and kept measurable PoPs out of a majority of the
forecast area on Wednesday and Thursday as the ridge dominate the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 255 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...Smith








000
FXUS63 KJKL 281931
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281931
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY REIGNS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. BROAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE PLAINS HAS A WARM
FRONT BRANCHED OUT TO THE ESE...BECOMING MORE STATIONARY AND ILL-
DEFINED ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS POISED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH CRUISING INTO THE PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP ALONG
THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE COMMONWEALTH...WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY HAS BUILT UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SO FAR...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DOTTED PORTIONS OF THE
CUMBERLAND VALLEY WITHIN EASTERN KENTUCKY.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DAMPENS AND RIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...REACHING NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP
PLENTY OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO THE START OF
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH THE THREAT OF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION...
MAINLY DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL WIND DOWN QUICKLY
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE INSTABILITY. FOG WILL LIKELY
SET IN ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE
VALLEYS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE
FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S. FOR FRIDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 90 DEGREE MARK...WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION THREATENING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE A MORE BALMY
NIGHT...WITH VALLEY FOG AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE EXTENDED WILL BEGIN WITH A BROAD BUT WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE MODELS HAVE A RATHER POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT
APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS. THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL PROVIDE OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THIS NEXT WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE
THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE THAT ARE LIKELY TO STREAM INTO THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...AND THE SLOWNESS OF THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE AREA. BASED ON THE CURRENT DATA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL OUT
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND MUCH LESS WELL DEFINED
BOUNDARY WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE ORIGINAL
FRONT FROM THE WEEKEND. THE ISSUE WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY IS TIMING
AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WHICH THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE HANDLING
QUITE DIFFERENTLY. IN FACT...DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE
ECMWF STALLS OUT ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE BOUNDARY. THE GFS...HOWEVER...KEEPS ITS BOUNDARY
MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH...ALONG WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. THAT BEING SAID...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WAS USED FOR SYSTEM
EVOLUTION AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT...A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS WAS USED
TO CREATE THE NEW FORECAST...WITH LOWER THAN MEXMOS VALUES FOR POPS
EACH OF THOSE DAYS AND NIGHTS DO TO THE UNCERTAINTY. THE BEST TIME
FRAME FOR RAIN LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO
THE STALLED FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO START THE PERIOD AS THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
PREDICTING BETWEEN 1.8 TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND A TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. BASED ON THIS TYPE OF INSTABILITY PROFILE...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE A LITTLE LESS THAN WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN NORMAL DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
EACH OF THE PASSING WEATHER SYSTEMS AND THE LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM
MOIST AIR THAT WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 70. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS
RULE WOULD BE SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD SEE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD AND LONG LASTING
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KLMK 281927
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Currently through this evening:

Storms have already begun to erupt across portions of southern and
western KY and are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through around sunset this evening. Moisture tongue draped across
western KY and digging into central KY is visible on the CIMSS
NearCast model and depicted in dewpoint surface obs. Latest SPC
MesoAnalysis shows the more significant DCAPE values to the south of
the TN/KY border but certainly cannot rule out
downbursts/microbursts still occurring with some of the taller
storms. OHX sounding at 12Z this morning had just over 2000 J/kg of
CAPE; 18Z GFSBufr sounding has over 3000 J/kg of CAPE in southern
KY, which lines up with the MesoAnalysis. In other words, plenty of
instability for these storms to work with, in conjunction with the
aforementioned moisture. Wind fields and shear are on the weak side,
and thus far, storms have very little motion to them, which combined
with the heavy to torrential rainfall threat, could lead to some
localized flooding concerns. Any storms that develop this
afternoon/this evening will dissipate after sunset.

Overnight through early Friday morning:

Skies will clear out for the most part overnight, winds will go
light to calm, and lingering low-level moisture (especially in areas
where rain had fallen) will equate to fog potential, particularly in
and around prone locations. Fog should remain on the lighter and
patchier side. Morning lows will range from the mid 60s in the
Bluegrass region to around the 70 degree mark in the Louisville
Metro and southwestern KY. No mentionable precip is in the forecast.

Friday through Friday night:

Weak frontal boundary currently laid out across southern KY will
lift back northward tomorrow as a warm front. This boundary will
serve as a primary focus for convection but as we`ve seen today,
leftover boundaries abounded and will likely see a similar setup
tomorrow. While there is moderate confidence in convection tomorrow
(again isolated to scattered in nature), model soundings are showing
much drier mid-level air filtering in and a cap that could limit
convection. With the warm front expected to lift north and southerly
flow kicking in, this mid-level dry air could be overdone.
Instability is also depicted as being a bit less as compared to
today but will have steep low-level lapse rates again. One thing to
keep in mind is that for the most part, deterministic models have
had a difficult time capturing the details and evolution of these
smaller scale pulse events and in some cases, underdone what has
actually happened over the last couple of days. Storms could once
again pose the threat of strong to possibly damaging winds. Any
development will once again wane after sunset as they lose diurnal
heating.

Highs tomorrow will be similar to today, ranging from the upper 80s
to the lower 90s. Dewpoints will again mimic today, generally in the
60s to 70s, although guidance is suggesting the higher values will
be in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. Lows overnight Friday
will be near or slightly above normal for this time of year, ranging
from the mid 60s in the Bluegrass to around 70 degrees elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Multiple Rounds of Precipitation Possible this Holiday Weekend...

An upper level trough and sfc low pressure will move east across the
Great Lakes region Sat/Sun with a slow moving sfc trough to approach
the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Precipitation will begin ahead of
this trough on Sat gradually spreading eastward throughout the day.
Soundings depict enough wind shear for perhaps some organized
multicell clusters of storms on Sat.  However, instability may be a
limiting factor depending on cloud cover early in the day Saturday.
The Bluegrass would be the best area for instability to build during
the day Sat and perhaps the best region for any strong storms to
develop.

The main rounds of rain will arrive for Sat night/Sun as multiple
disturbances move NE through the Ohio Valley ahead of the trough in
a warm, moisture rich environment.  With PWATs near 2 inches and a
deep warm cloud layer Sat night/Sun, multiple rounds of
showers/storms may cause minor flooding issues.

For the beginning of next week, convection chances will continue
although models vary quite a bit on exact timing.  The tail end of
this trough could linger long enough to cause on and off
precipitation Sun night/Monday according to most long range models.
However, convection timing does vary a bit among 12z models and
from run to run.  The next feature to cause yet more rounds of
convection will be a frontal boundary progged to lay out some where
over the Midwest for midweek next week.

Temperatures in the long term will stay near normal with highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s most
days.  The one day that could be significantly cooler is Sunday as
multiple rounds of rain throughout the day may limit the diurnal
rise to the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection is already beginning to develop across portions of
southwestern KY and this activity is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Given the isolated
to scattered nature of the storms expected (much like yesterday),
have introduced VCTS into the BWG TAF through the remainder of the
afternoon and will update for approaching storms as necessary. This
convection is anticipated to stay south and west of the SDF and LEX
terminals, although not completely out of the question for some
vicinity activity to pop-up. However, chances in and around those
two terminals appear to be lower and confidence in direct impacts is
low.

Winds are generally out of the NE this afternoon and are expected to
become variable and light or calm in the overnight period at all
three sites. Light fog could once again develop by the pre-dawn
hours across the region with BWG having the best chances if rain
falls in the area. For now, have gone with low-end MVFR and will
wait to see how close precip falls around the terminal. LEX should
also see MVFR, regardless if rain doesn`t fall in that area. SDF is
expected to either teeter MVFR/VFR or maintain VFR conditions unless
rain dictates otherwise.

For tomorrow, winds will become primarily southerly as warm, moist
air advects into the region in front of a large-scale system
approaching the Ohio Valley over the holiday weekend. Another
afternoon CU field is expected to develop by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........lg
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281808 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE STRATUS DECK HAS PROVEN TO BE AS FORMIDABLE AS ONE SEEN DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
EROSION AND THINNING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT WILL HAVE TO HAVE
FURTHER REFINE THE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONSEQUENTLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...READINGS HAVE
SPIKED TO AS WARM AS THE 87 DEGREE MARK...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KEKQ. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281808 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE STRATUS DECK HAS PROVEN TO BE AS FORMIDABLE AS ONE SEEN DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
EROSION AND THINNING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT WILL HAVE TO HAVE
FURTHER REFINE THE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONSEQUENTLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...READINGS HAVE
SPIKED TO AS WARM AS THE 87 DEGREE MARK...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KEKQ. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281808 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE STRATUS DECK HAS PROVEN TO BE AS FORMIDABLE AS ONE SEEN DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
EROSION AND THINNING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT WILL HAVE TO HAVE
FURTHER REFINE THE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONSEQUENTLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...READINGS HAVE
SPIKED TO AS WARM AS THE 87 DEGREE MARK...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KEKQ. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281808 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE STRATUS DECK HAS PROVEN TO BE AS FORMIDABLE AS ONE SEEN DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
EROSION AND THINNING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT WILL HAVE TO HAVE
FURTHER REFINE THE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONSEQUENTLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...READINGS HAVE
SPIKED TO AS WARM AS THE 87 DEGREE MARK...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KEKQ. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

MVFR STRATOCU WILL SCATTER OUT AND LIFT THROUGH 19Z. A FEW SHOWERS
AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE SEEN GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND HIGHWAY 80 CORRIDORS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. GIVEN THE ISOLATED AREAL COVERAGE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT
ANY CONVECTIVE MENTION AT LOZ AND SME. ANY ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY AROUND 01Z...WITH FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 05 AND
10Z. HAVE KEPT THINGS MVFR FOR THE TAF SITES...AS WINDS WILL BE
VEERING AROUND TO A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. IFR OR WORSE FOG
IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. THE FOG WILL BE
BURNING OFF BY AROUND 13Z FRIDAY...WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
THREATENING ONCE AGAIN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Have updated the forecast for this afternoon to include scattered
thunderstorm mention across the south and west and isolated across
the north and east. With plenty of moisture to work with today and
plentiful boundaries in and around the forecast area, shouldn`t take
much to fire up convection once again. Look for a similar situation
to yesterday afternoon/evening but with the focus across
south-central KY. Expect strong to possibly damaging winds and heavy
to torrential rain.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normal fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection is already beginning to develop across portions of
southwestern KY and this activity is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Given the isolated
to scattered nature of the storms expected (much like yesterday),
have introduced VCTS into the BWG TAF through the remainder of the
afternoon and will update for approaching storms as necessary. This
convection is anticipated to stay south and west of the SDF and LEX
terminals, although not completely out of the question for some
vicinity activity to pop-up. However, chances in and around those
two terminals appear to be lower and confidence in direct impacts is
low.

Winds are generally out of the NE this afternoon and are expected to
become variable and light or calm in the overnight period at all
three sites. Light fog could once again develop by the pre-dawn
hours across the region with BWG having the best chances if rain
falls in the area. For now, have gone with low-end MVFR and will
wait to see how close precip falls around the terminal. LEX should
also see MVFR, regardless if rain doesn`t fall in that area. SDF is
expected to either teeter MVFR/VFR or maintain VFR conditions unless
rain dictates otherwise.

For tomorrow, winds will become primarily southerly as warm, moist
air advects into the region in front of a large-scale system
approaching the Ohio Valley over the holiday weekend. Another
afternoon CU field is expected to develop by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......lg





000
FXUS63 KLMK 281739
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
139 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Have updated the forecast for this afternoon to include scattered
thunderstorm mention across the south and west and isolated across
the north and east. With plenty of moisture to work with today and
plentiful boundaries in and around the forecast area, shouldn`t take
much to fire up convection once again. Look for a similar situation
to yesterday afternoon/evening but with the focus across
south-central KY. Expect strong to possibly damaging winds and heavy
to torrential rain.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normal fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Convection is already beginning to develop across portions of
southwestern KY and this activity is expected to increase in
coverage and intensity over the next few hours. Given the isolated
to scattered nature of the storms expected (much like yesterday),
have introduced VCTS into the BWG TAF through the remainder of the
afternoon and will update for approaching storms as necessary. This
convection is anticipated to stay south and west of the SDF and LEX
terminals, although not completely out of the question for some
vicinity activity to pop-up. However, chances in and around those
two terminals appear to be lower and confidence in direct impacts is
low.

Winds are generally out of the NE this afternoon and are expected to
become variable and light or calm in the overnight period at all
three sites. Light fog could once again develop by the pre-dawn
hours across the region with BWG having the best chances if rain
falls in the area. For now, have gone with low-end MVFR and will
wait to see how close precip falls around the terminal. LEX should
also see MVFR, regardless if rain doesn`t fall in that area. SDF is
expected to either teeter MVFR/VFR or maintain VFR conditions unless
rain dictates otherwise.

For tomorrow, winds will become primarily southerly as warm, moist
air advects into the region in front of a large-scale system
approaching the Ohio Valley over the holiday weekend. Another
afternoon CU field is expected to develop by Friday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KPAH 281718 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281718 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281718 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281718 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Aside from IFR/MVFR cigs and/or vsbys at the TAF sites between
09-12Z, VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast
period. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the heat of
the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to mention
explicitly with this package. Calm to light and variable winds
through most of the period will pick up out of the south AOB 5
knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281629 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE STRATUS DECK HAS PROVEN TO BE AS FORMIDABLE AS ONE SEEN DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
EROSION AND THINNING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT WILL HAVE TO HAVE
FURTHER REFINE THE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONSEQUENTLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...READINGS HAVE
SPIKED TO AS WARM AS THE 87 DEGREE MARK...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KEKQ. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281629 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE STRATUS DECK HAS PROVEN TO BE AS FORMIDABLE AS ONE SEEN DURING
THE WINTER SEASON. THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS DO SHOW SOME
EROSION AND THINNING OVER THE PAST HOUR...BUT WILL HAVE TO HAVE
FURTHER REFINE THE SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONSEQUENTLY
TEMPERATURE TRENDS. OUTSIDE THE THICKER CLOUD COVER...READINGS HAVE
SPIKED TO AS WARM AS THE 87 DEGREE MARK...CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED AT
KEKQ. UPDATES WILL BE FORTHCOMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281345
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
945 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 941 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Have updated the forecast for this afternoon to include scattered
thunderstorm mention across the south and west and isolated across
the north and east. With plenty of moisture to work with today and
plentiful boundaries in and around the forecast area, shouldn`t take
much to fire up convection once again. Look for a similar situation
to yesterday afternoon/evening but with the focus across
south-central KY. Expect strong to possibly damaging winds and heavy
to torrential rain.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normal fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Light fog that has developed at the TAF sites this morning will
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. For the remainder of the day
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light and generally out
of the east through the day. Scattered cu will develop this
afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will develop across south central
KY this afternoon in the vicinity of a front. However, the chance of
any one affecting BWG is low so will keep the forecast dry for now.
For tonight expect that light fog will form once again as winds
become light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281331 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281331 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281331 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281331 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A CONTINUOUS STRATUS LAYER HAS ENSHROUDED NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING. VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED IN THE
VALLEYS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS REPORTING A MILE OR ABOVE NOW. HAVE
BEEFED UP THE SKY COVER ACROSS THIS AREA AND ALSO ACCORDINGLY
TEMPERED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE. THIS DECK WILL GRADUALLY BURN
OFF THROUGH AROUND 11 AM. HAVE ALSO RESERVED THE ISOLATED POPS UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDS. THE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL
BE OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED JUST
EAST OF OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS/ HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281125
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast period at
all terminals. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the
heat of the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to
mention explicitly with this package. Easterly winds through the
period will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281125
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast period at
all terminals. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the
heat of the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to
mention explicitly with this package. Easterly winds through the
period will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281125
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast period at
all terminals. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the
heat of the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to
mention explicitly with this package. Easterly winds through the
period will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 281125
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

VFR conditions will prevail during much of the forecast period at
all terminals. Widely scattered thunderstorms may develop in the
heat of the afternoon, but anticipated coverage is too little to
mention explicitly with this package. Easterly winds through the
period will remain light.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 281106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF
OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/
HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 281106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

SO FAR FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS.
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA HAS
DEVELOPED AFTER SOME PASSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST OF
OUR BORDER. OTHERWISE...FOG DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS/
HAS LED TO VV CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. FOG IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF LIFTING AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE LAST HOUR...AND AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS MORNINGS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
BURN OFF THROUGH 10AM. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO THE
ONGOING NEAR TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE ONGOING TEMPERATURES...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

EXPECT FOG TO BURN OFF BETWEEN 12 AND 14Z AT TAF SITES ONCE MORE
THIS MORNING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS TAKING HOLD. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KY LAST NIGHT...WILL BECOME
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN AND
VA BORDERS. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT
MENTION OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 281037
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normall fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Light fog that has developed at the TAF sites this morning will
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. For the remainder of the day
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light and generally out
of the east through the day. Scattered cu will develop this
afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will develop across south central
KY this afternoon in the vicinity of a front. However, the chance of
any one affecting BWG is low so will keep the forecast dry for now.
For tonight expect that light fog will form once again as winds
become light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281037
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normall fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Light fog that has developed at the TAF sites this morning will
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. For the remainder of the day
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light and generally out
of the east through the day. Scattered cu will develop this
afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will develop across south central
KY this afternoon in the vicinity of a front. However, the chance of
any one affecting BWG is low so will keep the forecast dry for now.
For tonight expect that light fog will form once again as winds
become light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281037
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normall fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Light fog that has developed at the TAF sites this morning will
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. For the remainder of the day
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light and generally out
of the east through the day. Scattered cu will develop this
afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will develop across south central
KY this afternoon in the vicinity of a front. However, the chance of
any one affecting BWG is low so will keep the forecast dry for now.
For tonight expect that light fog will form once again as winds
become light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 281037
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
637 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normall fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 635 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Light fog that has developed at the TAF sites this morning will
dissipate an hour or two after sunrise. For the remainder of the day
VFR conditions are expected. Winds will be light and generally out
of the east through the day. Scattered cu will develop this
afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will develop across south central
KY this afternoon in the vicinity of a front. However, the chance of
any one affecting BWG is low so will keep the forecast dry for now.
For tonight expect that light fog will form once again as winds
become light and variable.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN
BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION
OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW





000
FXUS63 KJKL 280836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO ANY
CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN TRACK GENERALLY
TO OUR NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. WEAKER
DISTURBANCES INITIALLY OVER TX OR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THEM ARE PROGGED TO
WORK AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY
REGION FROM SAT INTO SUN NIGHT. THE PATTERN WILL GENERALLY THEN
EVOLVE TO A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO
THE PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THIS TROUGH TO FINALLY SWING EAST
TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK
OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE
OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE WORKING NORTH AND SHOULD EXIT
TO THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INITIAL SHORTWAVE WORKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION GETS INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND THE WARM FRONT DEPARTS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...AND TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY
STRETCHING OUT WEST TO EAST BY THE INCREASINGLY WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION
TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THESE DISTURBANCES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.

AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD
BE THE LEAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. BY SAT EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AND PEAK SUNDAY AS
THE DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WORK OVERHEAD. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND TWO INCHES...IF
NOT ABOVE TWO INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO INCHES INTO
MONDAY. PWATS MAY LOWER SOME IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY PER RECENT GUIDANCE...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARER TO TWO INCHES CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER IN ADVANCE OF
THE SLOWLY APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
REMAINS A CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
FROM SAT EVENING INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD ON TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AS THE NEXT FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION.
DRIER AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS LOW...AND WE HAVE CONTINUED TO
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN
BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION
OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE/JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KPAH 280748
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

Hot and humid weather will persist into Friday. However, conditions
should not be quite as oppressive as the last several days. Today,
temperatures will be just a few degrees lower than yesterday with
heat index readings averaging in the upper 90s to perhaps around
100 in a few spots. Heat index readings will be several degrees
lower on Friday as drier air mixes down through the column. Higher
humidity will return Saturday, but temperatures will be lower
given the added cloud cover and chance for precipitation. As a
result, it looks like we can put the long standing Heat Advisory
to rest for the time being.

As for the overall pattern, upper level ridging over the Southeast
will persist through the near term--albeit with a slight eastward
drift. At the surface, a weak cold front that dropped into the
forecast area yesterday will shift back to the north by Friday.
The presence of this boundary may touch off isolated to scattered
thunderstorms as the atmosphere destabilizes this afternoon. Mainly
dry conditions will take hold late tonight and Friday, though a
rogue storm cannot be ruled  out near Interstate 64 and the Ozark
foothills Friday afternoon.

An upper level trough over the Central Plains will shift east into
the Mississippi Valley by Saturday. Its approach will heighten the
influx of Gulf moisture on increasing southerly flow. As a result,
the potential for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase
from the west Friday night into Saturday. While a few strong storms
cannot be ruled out, the main concern during this time will be
locally heavy rain with deep unidirectional southwest flow and
precipitable water values in the vicinity of 2 inches.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.
Widely separated daytime convection will be too isolated to
mention explicitly with this package.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO
ANY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN
BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION
OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 280731
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
331 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT LAST NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION...AND A BROADER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVED IN BEHIND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. THIS BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO
LOSE STRENGTH AND STALL OUT JUST S OF KY BY LATE IN THE DAY TODAY.
THE EXISTENCE OF THE BOUNDARY AND WARM/HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ENOUGH TO SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME...WHILE
INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL QUICKLY BRING AN END TO
ANY CONVECTION BY THIS EVENING.

OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUIET WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND. BY TOMORROW...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL MAKE SHIFT BACK
NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT...ATTACHED TO SURFACE LOW QUICKLY MOVING
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS STATES. BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...A SURGE OF WARMER...MOIST...GULF AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY...WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS CAUSING HEAT
INDEXES TO PEAK A FEW DEGREES HIGHER. THE FRONT WILL STILL BE
WEAK...BUT THE INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
KY BY THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH A BROAD TROUGH STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH IS PROGGED
TO FINALLY SWING EAST TO OUR NORTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
OUR FLOW FLATTENING BACK OUT. BEFORE THAT HAPPENS...A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE BLUEGRASS STATE.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING INTO OUR REGION
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL PUSH BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM MAY FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS BOUNDARY
MOVES BACK THROUGH AND DAYTIME HEATING TAKES PLACE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND
TOWARD THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...IN ADDITION TO THE PASSING OF DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...WILL FUEL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY APPEAR LIKE THE BEST DAYS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AND HIGHS APPROACHING 90.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AND THEN PEAK ON SUNDAY. PWATS
INCREASE TO OVER TWO INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN AROUND TWO
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS A
CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD. DRIER AIR IS PROGGED TO BEGIN ADVECTING
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT FINALLY
SAGS INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS
LOW...SO WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF KJKL TONIGHT. EXPECT
SOME IFR OR WORSE FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. FOG WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. WITH THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING
STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA TODAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON NEAR THE TN
BORDER. ALTHOUGH IT IS A SLIGHT CHANCE...WENT AHEAD AND KEPT MENTION
OF VCTS IN KLOZ AND KSME TAF FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SKIES SHOULD QUICKLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...ALTHOUGH FOG IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A RETURN /ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS/ ONCE MORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 280719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normall fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

A weak front will continue to sink south overnight. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight at all TAF sites. With plenty
of low level moisture, light fog is expected to form. Will keep SDF
in the MVFR range. LEX and BWG may drop to IFR for a period towards
daybreak, so will keep a TEMPO group in for both of these sites to
account for this. Fog will dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. Cu
will develop late morning into the afternoon. Isolated
showers/storms are expected to develop across south central KY this
afternoon. However, confidence is low for them affecting BWG, so
will keep mention of precip out of the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 280719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

Typical summertime conditions are expected through the short term
period. Aloft the region will remain on the northwestern side of a
500 mb ridge through Friday. At the surface a weak front will
continue to slowly sink southward towards the KY/TN border this
morning and eventually stall out along or just south of this border.
This front will then begin to lift back northward as a warm front
late tonight through Friday.

We will start out with some patchy fog this morning, particularly in
normall fog prone locations and in areas that saw rain yesterday
afternoon and evening. This will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
With the moist and unstable airmass remaining in place isolated to
widely scattered storms are expected to develop once again this
afternoon. These storms look to fire near the front, so the best
chance will be across southern and western portions of the forecast
area. A few stronger storms could be possible with strong winds
being the main threat, similar to yesterday. Any storms will
dissipate near sunset. Friday will again see afternoon storm
development. However, the main area of concern for Friday will be
southern Indiana and north central KY along the warm front.

Temperatures will remain around or just above seasonal normals.
Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows mainly in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. The Bluegrass region may be just a bit
cooler tonight in the mid 60s as slightly lower dewpoint air filters
in behind the front.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

High pressure along the U.S. east coast will combine with increasing
southwesterly winds aloft to bring us back to a period of above
normal rain chances, perhaps bringing us close to all-time record
total rainfall for the month of August at our climate sites. KBWG,
currently at fourth all-time August, needs another 1.24" to reach
that level, whereas KLEX, currently third, would need 1.98". KSDF is
farther back in the list, currently in 8th. A little less than an
inch will get them in the Top 5. A trough to our west will serve as
the focus for storms during the day Saturday. Will have a little
higher chances west of I-65.

Small scale disturbances moving through the southwest flow will
determine how widespread the coverage is beyond that period, from
Saturday night through Sunday night. Have gone into the likely range
based on precipitable water values and the likelihood of these
disturbances along the front. Temperatures should be well above
normal Saturday, with continued muggy conditions. Sunday looks to be
a little cooler with the better rain chances.

As we start the new work week, a more focused upper trough will move
in from the Central Plains. It may stay far enough away during the
day Monday to keep us more with scattered airmass thunderstorms that
day. By Tuesday the 12Z Euro had the front stalling east to west
across our region, which would mean trouble for possible flooding
concerns. The new Euro looks fairly similar. The new GFS stalled the
front just to our north for Tuesday, whereas the GEM pushes the
front to the south. Certainly something to watch given our
antecedent rainfalls for August.

For temperatures the rest of the period, will keep them above
normal, but trend back some for midweek, owing to the chance the
front could be stalled over the region keeping readings down.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2014

A weak front will continue to sink south overnight. Winds will be
light and variable to calm overnight at all TAF sites. With plenty
of low level moisture, light fog is expected to form. Will keep SDF
in the MVFR range. LEX and BWG may drop to IFR for a period towards
daybreak, so will keep a TEMPO group in for both of these sites to
account for this. Fog will dissipate an hour or two after sunrise.

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. Cu
will develop late morning into the afternoon. Isolated
showers/storms are expected to develop across south central KY this
afternoon. However, confidence is low for them affecting BWG, so
will keep mention of precip out of the TAF at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KPAH 280635
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain begin to shift
slowly eastward on Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary just to the north of our CWA
should begin to dissipate with the setting of the sun or shortly
thereafter.

The frontal boundary is forecast to sag slowly southwestward
overnight into our CWA and be bisecting our area from NW-SE by 12Z
(7 AM) Thursday, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front
during the day. In the process, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the northeastern two thirds of our CWA and
continue into the evening hours.

On Friday we will be in the warm sector but widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the far northeast sections
where capping will be weakest, and over the far western sections
with the approach of a weather system developing over the central
plains. As this system draws closer to our CWA Friday night,
precipitation chances will increase from the west.

Right now the thinking is to NOT extend the Heat Advisory past 7 PM
this evening. The heat Index may reach 100 degrees in a couple of
spots Thursday afternoon, but not widespread enough to continue with
the advisory. If later guidance comes in with temperatures and/or
dew points a tad higher, a new advisory may become necessary. A lot
is going to depend on cloud cover Thursday and any convection that
develops.

Beyond Thursday the combination of cloud cover and precipitation
should keep heat indices below 100 degrees, but not that far. Even
though heat indices (widespread) are not expected to reach advisory
criteria beyond today, persons across the lower Ohio valley still
need to take all of the necessary precautions to protect themselves
from high heat and humidity over the upcoming holiday weekend and
through at least the middle of next week as temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period
along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.
Widely separated daytime convection will be too isolated to
mention explicitly with this package.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






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