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000
FXUS63 KPAH 311130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
18Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311130
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND
18Z AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KJKL 311106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ADJUSTED MORNING FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ADJUSTED MORNING FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ADJUSTED MORNING FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311106
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ADJUSTED MORNING FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 311100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow will dominate the upper flow today and tonight. Meanwhile, a
dry cold front passes today, extending from a surface low that will
travel from the lower Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic states by this
evening. Ahead of this frontal boundary, steady SW winds will help
to warm things up. With the warmer GFS MOS guidance for highs due to
its recent solid performance during good heating days. This will put
most spots in the low and mid 70s for highs. Will have to watch our
far southern and especially SE CWA near Lake Cumberland late this
afternoon and early evening where just enough moisture convergence
and destabilization could gather ahead of the front to fire of a
stray shower or storm. Won`t forecast any at this time as thinking
is that activity will be just south of the state border. Will
monitor through the day. This scenario is supported by current
hi-res model solutions.

Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates tonight and tomorrow,
along with an upper ridge building into the area. This will continue
to keep things dry. We will be a couple/few degrees cooler tomorrow
as there is a subtle airmass/thickness change behind today`s front.
Should still see upper 60s and low 70s for another very nice Spring
day.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Main challenge is the timing and impact of a late-week cold frontal
passage, and the resulting potential for strong storms. Column
starts out dry enough that Wed night POPs will be slight chance at
best. Deepening SW flow on Thursday will push precipitable water
(PWAT) over 1 inch, so will ramp POPs up to high-end chance over
most of the area with likely POPs over southern Indiana. Best
chances for thunder will be Thursday night with a 40-50 kt low-level
jet overhead. The potential for strong/severe storms will be
modulated by the timing of the fropa, which looks increasingly iffy
for those looking for severe weather. ECMWF is the slowest solution
as it hangs the front up over southern Indiana as a wave rides ENE
along it, which would give us a chance to destabilize before a
Friday fropa. The GFS and NAM (out to 12Z Fri) are faster, with the
front hung up over Kentucky much of the day. This solution would
keep enough clouds and rain in play that we`d remain stable if not
completely undercut. Heavy rain is a more likely scenario, and will
probably become focused where the front hangs up. Best shot at 2+
inch rain totals shows up in southern Indiana based on current
grids, but placement may need to be adjusted. Convective nature of
this system will put even higher totals in play somewhere in the
area. Stay tuned.

Fortunately this system is trending more progressive from one model
run to the next, with precip tapering off Friday night. Canadian
high pressure will bring a cool weekend, albeit not nearly as cold
as this past weekend. Max temps in the 50s on Sat will recover to
near climo for Sunday, with chilly but not frosty temps expected
both mornings.

Next week will begin with flat riding aloft and increasing SW
low-level flow ahead of a system that will take shape over the
Plains. Just enough of a moisture tap to merit low-end chance POPs
on Monday, but confidence in precip is not high. Temps near climo
for one more day.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the
TAF period. WSW winds will pick up in magnitude by late morning
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. A dry cool
front will slide through in the afternoon with winds veering
northwesterly an slowly slackening. Winds will continue to veer
tomorrow evening to a NE direction around 5 mph or less. As far as
cloud cover goes, expect only a few Cu around 4-5 k feet and a few
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 311100
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
700 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow will dominate the upper flow today and tonight. Meanwhile, a
dry cold front passes today, extending from a surface low that will
travel from the lower Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic states by this
evening. Ahead of this frontal boundary, steady SW winds will help
to warm things up. With the warmer GFS MOS guidance for highs due to
its recent solid performance during good heating days. This will put
most spots in the low and mid 70s for highs. Will have to watch our
far southern and especially SE CWA near Lake Cumberland late this
afternoon and early evening where just enough moisture convergence
and destabilization could gather ahead of the front to fire of a
stray shower or storm. Won`t forecast any at this time as thinking
is that activity will be just south of the state border. Will
monitor through the day. This scenario is supported by current
hi-res model solutions.

Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates tonight and tomorrow,
along with an upper ridge building into the area. This will continue
to keep things dry. We will be a couple/few degrees cooler tomorrow
as there is a subtle airmass/thickness change behind today`s front.
Should still see upper 60s and low 70s for another very nice Spring
day.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Main challenge is the timing and impact of a late-week cold frontal
passage, and the resulting potential for strong storms. Column
starts out dry enough that Wed night POPs will be slight chance at
best. Deepening SW flow on Thursday will push precipitable water
(PWAT) over 1 inch, so will ramp POPs up to high-end chance over
most of the area with likely POPs over southern Indiana. Best
chances for thunder will be Thursday night with a 40-50 kt low-level
jet overhead. The potential for strong/severe storms will be
modulated by the timing of the fropa, which looks increasingly iffy
for those looking for severe weather. ECMWF is the slowest solution
as it hangs the front up over southern Indiana as a wave rides ENE
along it, which would give us a chance to destabilize before a
Friday fropa. The GFS and NAM (out to 12Z Fri) are faster, with the
front hung up over Kentucky much of the day. This solution would
keep enough clouds and rain in play that we`d remain stable if not
completely undercut. Heavy rain is a more likely scenario, and will
probably become focused where the front hangs up. Best shot at 2+
inch rain totals shows up in southern Indiana based on current
grids, but placement may need to be adjusted. Convective nature of
this system will put even higher totals in play somewhere in the
area. Stay tuned.

Fortunately this system is trending more progressive from one model
run to the next, with precip tapering off Friday night. Canadian
high pressure will bring a cool weekend, albeit not nearly as cold
as this past weekend. Max temps in the 50s on Sat will recover to
near climo for Sunday, with chilly but not frosty temps expected
both mornings.

Next week will begin with flat riding aloft and increasing SW
low-level flow ahead of a system that will take shape over the
Plains. Just enough of a moisture tap to merit low-end chance POPs
on Monday, but confidence in precip is not high. Temps near climo
for one more day.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 656 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the
TAF period. WSW winds will pick up in magnitude by late morning
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. A dry cool
front will slide through in the afternoon with winds veering
northwesterly an slowly slackening. Winds will continue to veer
tomorrow evening to a NE direction around 5 mph or less. As far as
cloud cover goes, expect only a few Cu around 4-5 k feet and a few
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310844
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
344 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ANOTHER SUNNY AND RATHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NOTHING IN THE WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH
THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. LATE TODAY...AS THE TROUGH
ENCOUNTERS BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...SOME
LOW CLOUDS AND EVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM.
PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN SHOWING
SOME LIGHT QPF ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS BORDERS AROUND 00Z
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MILD START TO THE DAY AND SUNNY
SKIES...HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S. 850 MB TEMPS
ARE STARTING OFF AT OR ABOVE 10 CELSIUS.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL BRING DRIER AIR. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE COOLER THAN GUIDANCE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

ON WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL HOLD THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE ACROSS MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THEREFORE...LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND RATHER WARM TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE EXCEPTION IS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THERE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE REGION AS THE LEADING EDGE OF MOIST AIR CONTINUES PUSHING
NORTHEAST. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS MAY ADD SOME SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND PRECIPITATION WILL APPROACH ON
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME DOWN INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THURSDAY
NIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
60S...AND GFS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z
FRIDAY. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS
/COMBINED WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SLOWING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/
SUPPORTS WPC GUIDANCE OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY 12Z FRIDAY.
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS HIGHEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BEFORE INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MEDIUM TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT LOCATION...BUT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD AN E-W QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE
VICINITY OF OUR CWA. ON FRIDAY A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT
MODEL TRACKS DIFFER...SO AT THIS JUNCTURE IT IS DIFFICULT PINNING
DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN TAKE
THE LOW ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SINCE TYPICALLY THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK...AT THIS
POINT IT`S ANYBODY`S GUESS WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
GREATEST. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF
WOULD PRODUCE GREATER INSTABILITY THEREBY SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. A LITTLE EARLY TO GET INTO TOO MUCH
DETAIL...BUT AT THIS POINT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREATS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MINOR RIDGING ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT AS SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BRINGS
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION COMBINED WITH PERIODIC
IMPULSES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE. WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BE AROUND 30 TO 35 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING...SO GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS OUR REGION. THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALONG THE FRONT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL DROP
SOUTH THROUGH THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE VERY LIMITED...AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ANY LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD BE
TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR EAST. STRONG SURFACE HEATING...AND EVENTUALLY
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL ALLOW FOR A WELL MIXED SURFACE LAYER
AND GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH AN EASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP IN WINDS AS HEATING IS LOST THIS EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR A MODEST RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BY DAWN
ON WEDNESDAY. SUNSHINE AND STRONG HEATING...AND A CESSATION OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION...WILL LEAD TO A DECENT REBOUND IN TEMPS FOR
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TO START OUT THE PERIOD... A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT SEWD DURING THE EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION IN THE EVENING
IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RETURN
FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW WARM...MOIST AIR TO BEGIN FILTERING INTO
THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE 70 DEGREES
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE
IS SOME DECENT WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING
CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN A SERIES
OF SURFACE WAVES TRAVERSE KY. DAYTIME HEATING...ALONG WITH THE
LIFT PROVIDED BY THE SURFACE FRONT WILL ONLY INCREASE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW HOURS...WITH A FAST
TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR DIRECTLY BEHIND AS
YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS LESSON LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A CONSIDERABLE DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL TO THE UPPER 30S
AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE N. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID
50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM/JMW
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

NW flow will dominate the upper flow today and tonight. Meanwhile, a
dry cold front passes today, extending from a surface low that will
travel from the lower Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic states by this
evening. Ahead of this frontal boundary, steady SW winds will help
to warm things up. With the warmer GFS MOS guidance for highs due to
its recent solid performance during good heating days. This will put
most spots in the low and mid 70s for highs. Will have to watch our
far southern and especially SE CWA near Lake Cumberland late this
afternoon and early evening where just enough moisture convergence
and destabilization could gather ahead of the front to fire of a
stray shower or storm. Won`t forecast any at this time as thinking
is that activity will be just south of the state border. Will
monitor through the day. This scenario is supported by current
hi-res model solutions.

Otherwise, surface high pressure dominates tonight and tomorrow,
along with an upper ridge building into the area. This will continue
to keep things dry. We will be a couple/few degrees cooler tomorrow
as there is a subtle airmass/thickness change behind today`s front.
Should still see upper 60s and low 70s for another very nice Spring
day.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Main challenge is the timing and impact of a late-week cold frontal
passage, and the resulting potential for strong storms. Column
starts out dry enough that Wed night POPs will be slight chance at
best. Deepening SW flow on Thursday will push precipitable water
(PWAT) over 1 inch, so will ramp POPs up to high-end chance over
most of the area with likely POPs over southern Indiana. Best
chances for thunder will be Thursday night with a 40-50 kt low-level
jet overhead. The potential for strong/severe storms will be
modulated by the timing of the fropa, which looks increasingly iffy
for those looking for severe weather. ECMWF is the slowest solution
as it hangs the front up over southern Indiana as a wave rides ENE
along it, which would give us a chance to destabilize before a
Friday fropa. The GFS and NAM (out to 12Z Fri) are faster, with the
front hung up over Kentucky much of the day. This solution would
keep enough clouds and rain in play that we`d remain stable if not
completely undercut. Heavy rain is a more likely scenario, and will
probably become focused where the front hangs up. Best shot at 2+
inch rain totals shows up in southern Indiana based on current
grids, but placement may need to be adjusted. Convective nature of
this system will put even higher totals in play somewhere in the
area. Stay tuned.

Fortunately this system is trending more progressive from one model
run to the next, with precip tapering off Friday night. Canadian
high pressure will bring a cool weekend, albeit not nearly as cold
as this past weekend. Max temps in the 50s on Sat will recover to
near climo for Sunday, with chilly but not frosty temps expected
both mornings.

Next week will begin with flat riding aloft and increasing SW
low-level flow ahead of a system that will take shape over the
Plains. Just enough of a moisture tap to merit low-end chance POPs
on Monday, but confidence in precip is not high. Temps near climo
for one more day.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the
TAF period. WSW winds will pick up in magnitude by late morning
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. A dry cool
front will slide through in the afternoon with winds veering
northwesterly an slowly slackening. Winds will continue to veer
tomorrow evening to a NE direction around 5 mph or less. As far as
cloud cover goes, expect only a few Cu around 4-5 k feet and a few
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310528
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL PICK
UP DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. WINDS DIRECTION WILL START FROM THE SW IN THE
MORNING AND TRANSITION TO THE W AND NW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS
WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the
TAF period. WSW winds will pick up in magnitude by late morning
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. A dry cool
front will slide through in the afternoon with winds veering
northwesterly an slowly slackening. Winds will continue to veer
tomorrow evening to a NE direction around 5 mph or less. As far as
cloud cover goes, expect only a few Cu around 4-5 k feet and a few
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310504
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2015

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the
TAF period. WSW winds will pick up in magnitude by late morning
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. A dry cool
front will slide through in the afternoon with winds veering
northwesterly an slowly slackening. Winds will continue to veer
tomorrow evening to a NE direction around 5 mph or less. As far as
cloud cover goes, expect only a few Cu around 4-5 k feet and a few
upper level clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 310447
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE 06Z TUESDAY UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310447
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE 06Z TUESDAY UPDATE...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WFO PAH TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310417
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310417
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310417
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310417
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1217 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

BLENDED LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST...WITH NO CHANGES
OF SUBSTANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AMENDED THE KPAH AND KOWB TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF SITES. CURRENT SHEAR
RUNNING AROUND BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH A MUCH SHALLOWER
LAYER, BUT DECIDED TO ACCOUNT LARGER AREA INDICATED BY THE KPAH
AND KVWX WIND PROFILES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AMENDED THE KPAH AND KOWB TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF SITES. CURRENT SHEAR
RUNNING AROUND BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH A MUCH SHALLOWER
LAYER, BUT DECIDED TO ACCOUNT LARGER AREA INDICATED BY THE KPAH
AND KVWX WIND PROFILES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1021 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AMENDED THE KPAH AND KOWB TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR NON-CONVECTIVE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH DAYBREAK. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER THE SAME FOR THE KCGI AND KEVV TAF SITES. CURRENT SHEAR
RUNNING AROUND BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KNOTS THROUGH A MUCH SHALLOWER
LAYER, BUT DECIDED TO ACCOUNT LARGER AREA INDICATED BY THE KPAH
AND KVWX WIND PROFILES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310253
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310253
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SOUTH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP AT 5 MPH OR MORE SO FAR THIS
EVENING...WHICH HAS HELPED KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING AS
QUICKLY AS EXPECTED. AS A SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST SOUTHEAST FROM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE LOWER 40S OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. ELSEWHERE MOST LOCATIONS JUMPED BACK INTO AT LEAST THE
LOWER 30S WITH THE LOSS OF DEEPER MIXING. THERE ARE MID TO UPPER
40 DEWPOINTS JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SO A
FURTHER INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT IS LIKELY. THE BOTTOM-LINE IS
THAT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE TEMPERATURES
JUST A BIT IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS RESULTS IN
LOW TEMPERATURES BEING INCREASED BY A CATEGORY IN MANY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310236 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1036 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK SO JUST TWEAKED THE SKY COVER AND
T/TD GRIDS PER THE CURRENT OBS AND TENDS. THE UPDATED FORECAST HAS
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310204
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 310204
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 310204
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 310204
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 310204
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 310204
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1004 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1002 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Current forecast is on track for the overnight period.  Did add just
a little bit more cloud cover for the overnight period.  Updated
hourly T/Td`s to bring closer to current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310043 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
843 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

00Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS HAS HELPED TO CLEAR THE SKY LOCALLY THIS EVENING
EVEN AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD SOUTH FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP THE AIR STIRRED UP A BIT
MORE THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LIMITING THE RIDGE TO VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. HAVE MADE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND SKY
COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN THIS PATTERN. ALSO TOOK
INTO ACCOUNT THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE...OBS...AND TRENDS FOR
T AND TD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PASS BY THE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BULK OF THE
CLOUDS AND ANY RAIN STAYING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS SUCH...WILL
ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
WEST WILL BE SETTLING THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT LATE TONIGHT.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 302307
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
707 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down into the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 706 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Clear skies and VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF
period.  Winds will become light and variable overnight.  A dry cold
front will sink south of the Ohio River during the late morning
hours.  We`ll see surface winds shift back to the west and become
breezy during the afternoon.  Wind speeds Tuesday afternoon will be
in the 12-14kt range with gusts up to 20kts being possible.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302255
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 555 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD AS A FLAT RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DOMINATES THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KJKL 302002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 302002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 302002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 302002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 302002
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
402 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A VARIABLE WEATHER PATTERN...WITH MULTIPLE
TROUGHS...SHORTWAVES...AND RIDGES IMPACTING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
OVERALL...EXPECT RATHER ZONAL FLOW TO BE THE BACKDROP...WITH
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES STAYING IN
PLACE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

TO START OUT THE PERIOD...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE AT PLAY. NW FLOW WILL
ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT DRY AIR TO INFILTRATE THE STATE...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO UPPER 60S. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY SHIFT SEWRD DURING THE EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHES A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY
DIRECTION IN THE EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND RETURN FLOW...ALLOWING HIGHER DEW POINTS TO BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE REGION AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY THURSDAY. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT WELL ABOVE
70 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FINALLY REACH JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY
MORNING...DRAGGING A LONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. IF MODELS HOLD
TRUE...EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 0Z
FRIDAY...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY.

AFTER A DAY OF WARM...MOIST...SOUTHERLY FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN POPPING UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND QPF AS THE FRONT REACHES THE
OHIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME DECENT
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD...BOTH DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED
SHEER...BUT BEST OVERALL FACTORS...INCLUDING CAPE AND LI/S WILL LINE
UP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WHEN SEVERAL SMALLER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS TRAVERSE KY /ATTACHED TO ANOTHER SMALLER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/...DAYTIME HEATING IS IN PLAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR NE...PROVIDING A GOOD AMOUNT
OF LIFT.

A QUICK SHIFT TO THE EAST WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE FRIDAY
EVENING WILL PULL THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MATTER A FEW
HOURS...WITH A FAST TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE AND COLDER NRLY AIR
DIRECTLY BEHIND AS YET ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO
THE REGION. PRECIP WILL QUICKLY EXIT OR DISSIPATE...AND CLOUDS
LESSON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COLDER FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A
CONSIDERABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. SATURDAY MORNING TEMPS WILL FALL
TO THE LOW 40S AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT AND FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE
N. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW
TO MID 50S. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE THE HIGH
EXITS...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW ENTERS ONCE MORE...AND TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CONUS COULD BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
INSTABILITY AND PRECIP BY MONDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURES WESTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEYS
AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A SLACKENING OF THE GRADIENT AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT HEADING INTO TONIGHT. BY TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT
TONIGHT WITH A DIFFERENCE OF 7 DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF
NORTHEAST KENTUCKY. TOWARDS LATER TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE ON THE INCREASE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS...WOULD EXPECT NO
FROST...OR VERY LITTLE TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS NO FOG.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT ON THE THREAT OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN KENTUCKY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THE GFS SOUNDING
HAVE BEEN SHOWING AND THE SREF SHOWING SOME QPF IN THE FAR EAST
AND SOUTH...HAVE PUT SOME SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT...DO NOT THINK ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SOME THUNDER BUT A FEW MAY POP UP
NEAR THE TN BORDER AND SOUTH. GRADIENT WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
BE A BIT STRONG WITH SOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL ASSIST IN MAX TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 70 IN A FEW PLACES.

THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PUSH THIS DISTURBANCE OFF TO
THE EAST AS WELL WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW PLACES.
OVERALL A DRY SHORT TERM FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH A SMALL CHANCE
OF PRECIP ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 301925
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY WITH A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NW AHEAD OF A VERY SUBTLE MID LEVEL S/WV. COMPARED TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...THE MODELS PUSHED THE BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES BACK
TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS IS STILL
THE FARTHEST NORTHEAST. WE THINK SOME ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT ALONG
THE MO/AR/TN/SW KY BORDERS. BUT WILL NOT GO WITH POPS ANY FARTHER
TO THE NE THAN THAT...TO KEEP SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PRIOR
FORECASTS. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
DRY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WE DO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (LATE) INTO
SEMO...LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN BEFORE. HIGHS AND LOWS WILL REMAIN
CLOSE TO OUR EXISTING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS THE NW U.S. WILL RESULT IN AN
UNSETTLED WSW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS THURSDAY. IT SHOULD SETTLE ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE LITTLE UNTIL LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY PARALLELS THE UPPER FLOW. THE OVERALL
FORECAST WILL BE BASED ON A BLEND OF OPS AND ENSEMBLE MEAN OUTPUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DEPART EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. CONVECTIVE CHANCES THEN RETURN FOR
MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AND EXISTING NUMBERS. EVEN
WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE WEEK...NOT LOOKING AT A MAJOR
COOL DOWN BEHIND IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME SW 5-15 KTS BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. JUST
SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KLMK 301844
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down to near 40.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301844
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down to near 40.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301844
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down to near 40.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301844
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
244 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

The jet is currently in a split progressive pattern. Tonight, the
northern branch of the jet will feature a trough exiting New England
and northwesterly flow across the Lower Ohio Valley. At the surface,
a moisture-starved clipper will dive southeast across the upper
midwest tonight, with low pressure moving across northern Ohio
around dawn Tuesday. Deep Gulf moisture will stay confined along an
old frontal boundary stretching from Oklahoma southeast towards
northern Florida.

Skies will stay mostly clear through Tuesday night, with perhaps
some mid-level cloudiness developing this evening through the early
morning hours.

Light southerly winds tonight will become westerly Tuesday afternoon
and freshen to around 12 to 15 mph, as a surface trough associated
with the afore-mentioned clipper approaches. This trough will move
south of the Ohio River late tomorrow, turning winds light northerly
tomorrow night.

After lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s, tomorrows highs will
range from the upper 60s north to the lower to mid 70s south. Clear
skies and light winds will actually allow temperatures early
Wednesday to cool down to near 40.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Well...a gorgeous spring day on Wednesday and then an unsettled
pattern Wed night through Good Friday and into first half of
Saturday. Nice weather for Easter Sunday.  Significant weather
pattern change next week, with trough setting up in the west and
ridge over SE, which will set up progressive series of waves.

Wednesday...

Progressive upper ridge and accompanied sfc ridge will bring a
gorgeous hump day of the work week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday around 70 in most spots.

Wednesday Night

Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow SW component.
Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten over the Ohio
Valley with high near Bermuda. By Wednesday night, some isolated
rain showers will be possible in response to the sly flow/waa.
The GFS and GEM show this but SREF doesn`t show it.

Thu...

A cold front trailing from traversing low over Great Lakes will
approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel to the upper flow
along near our CWA. There is model disagreement in the timing and
placement of this boundary which will decide how much coverage of
showers and storms CWA receives. GFS shows sfc CAPE of 1300 j/kg,
LIS of -4C, TT of 55, and PWATS of 1.3 inches. It also shows
strengthening llvl jet and impressive wind field (and right turning
hodographs).

Leaning toward slower solution and staying on the warmer side  of
the boundary on Thursday (NW 1/3 of CWA much cooler (low to mid 60s)
and wetter than SE CWA (low to mid 70s)). Keeping theme of high
chance to likely POPS of showers/storms.

Thu Night and Good Friday...

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western US trough over
the area. Getting back to storm potential instability looks likely
on Thursday with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with
less in the way of instability. This is all dependent on placement
of the boundary and individual waves.

Right now, my best prognostication is Maddox flash flood frontal
scenario.  Have upped the QPF grids to 2 to 2.5 inches across the
area, but will vary greatly with convective variability.

Fri Night and Sat...
The trough axis looks to finally swing through sometime early
Saturday, ending our precipitation chances from NW to SE.  There
will be heavy rain for sure, mainly south of the BG Parkway.

Saturday PM - Easter...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

Monday...

Southwest flow begins in earnest...and a series of waves will push
through the flow, perhaps a "normal springlike week".  For now left
Day 7 mainly dry and will see how the new model runs come in.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301730
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 129 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS BY
THE AREA WITH THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR JUST SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA TOMORROW. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING
BEFORE DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH...EXPECT WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW
AND GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...A VFR FORECAST IS
EXPECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KLMK 301703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue this afternoon with only some
scattered flat fair weather cumulus continuing through early
afternoon across the Bluegrass Region. Winds will continue from the
northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are on track to peak
generally from near 60 to the mid 60s south.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue this afternoon with only some
scattered flat fair weather cumulus continuing through early
afternoon across the Bluegrass Region. Winds will continue from the
northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are on track to peak
generally from near 60 to the mid 60s south.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue this afternoon with only some
scattered flat fair weather cumulus continuing through early
afternoon across the Bluegrass Region. Winds will continue from the
northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are on track to peak
generally from near 60 to the mid 60s south.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
103 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue this afternoon with only some
scattered flat fair weather cumulus continuing through early
afternoon across the Bluegrass Region. Winds will continue from the
northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are on track to peak
generally from near 60 to the mid 60s south.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

VFR conditions and mostly clear skies are expected through the TAF
period. For this evening and overnight, west winds around 10kt late
this afternoon will diminish and back to the south at around 5kt
after midnight.

A dry cold front will move south of the Ohio River during the early
afternoon hours Tuesday. Light southwest winds during the morning will
increase and veer to the west. After 16z Tuesday, expect west winds
averaging around 12 to 14kt with some higher gusts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301535
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue this afternoon with only some
scattered flat fair weather cumulus continuing through early
afternoon across the Bluegrass Region. Winds will continue from the
northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are on track to peak
generally from near 60 to the mid 60s south.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Expect west northwest winds and VFR conditions today as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, then pick up from the west Tuesday as a cool
front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 301535
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1135 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Mostly clear skies will continue this afternoon with only some
scattered flat fair weather cumulus continuing through early
afternoon across the Bluegrass Region. Winds will continue from the
northwest around 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures are on track to peak
generally from near 60 to the mid 60s south.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Expect west northwest winds and VFR conditions today as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, then pick up from the west Tuesday as a cool
front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 301506
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301506
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301506
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301506
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW CLEARING SKIES
FROM THE WEST AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MO WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH
THESE CHANGES...HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS AND SENT A NEW ZFP TO
LESSEN CLOUD COVER AND TAKE THE REST OF THE SHOWERS OUT IN THE
EAST. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS GOOD TO GO.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301202 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301202 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301202 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301202 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
802 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

RAIN SHOWERS OR LIGHT RAIN IS GRADUALLY EXITING THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH CLEARING NOW WORKING INTO THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE GRADUAL CLEARING DURING THE MORNING...WITH SOME CU
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS...BUT THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

CIGS AND VIS WILL IMPROVE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE
AREA SUCH AS JKL AND SJS THROUGH THE MVFR RANGE AND INTO THE VFR
RANGE THROUGH 16Z AS A COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO
VIRGINIA AND TN. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL AFFECT THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES...AT SYM...LOZ AND SME. WINDS WILL SLACKEN AND BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 18Z AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 301045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Expect west northwest winds and VFR conditions today as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, then pick up from the west Tuesday as a cool
front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Expect west northwest winds and VFR conditions today as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, then pick up from the west Tuesday as a cool
front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Expect west northwest winds and VFR conditions today as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, then pick up from the west Tuesday as a cool
front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 301045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Expect west northwest winds and VFR conditions today as high
pressure builds into the Tennessee Valley. Winds will become light
and variable tonight, then pick up from the west Tuesday as a cool
front approaches the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 300824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE MUCH UNLIKE THE PATTERN OF THE
PAST COUPLE MONTHS. THE MOST NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA. THIS TROUGHING WILL FAVOR A BROAD/LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...THOUGH A VERY PROGRESSIVE LOW
AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE NET RESULT OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE WARMER SPRING
TEMPS...PUNCTUATED BY WEAK/BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF COLDER AIR FROM
CANADA.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
MODIFIED GULF AIR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 60 WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AT OR BELOW
1000 J/KG. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY WITH THE EFFECT OF
DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE AROUND 50 PERCENT ON THURSDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S THURSDAY.

THE MAIN SYSTEM OF INTEREST CONTINUES TO BE THE PROGRESSIVE/LOW
AMPLITUDE 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT WILL CROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIKELY TO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. POPS WILL BE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN A STATE OF FLUX CONCERNING THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER. MOST GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THE FRONT THEN STALLS
AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH
RANGE IS DEPICTED BY THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOW TRACK. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS IN THE WARM SECTOR ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. OF COURSE...THE MODELS ARE
STILL IN A STATE OF FLUX...SO THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL/SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL NOT SETTLED.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM...CLEARING AND COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL ARRIVE BY EARLY SATURDAY. THE WEEKEND APPEARS GENERALLY COOL
AND DRY. THE AIR MASS IN THIS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT BE
AS COOL AS THIS PAST WEEKEND. HOWEVER...FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. DEPENDING ON THE EFFECTS OF THIS WEEKS
WARMER TEMPS ON PLANT GROWTH...ANY FROST COULD HAVE SOME IMPACTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...MY



000
FXUS63 KJKL 300818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC IS WORKING FROM CENTRAL KY INTO EASTERN KY ATTM. BEHIND
THIS FRONT...PLENTY OF CLEARING IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN KY AND
MUCH OF THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE AREA AND THESE ARE NOW GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE GUSTY
WINDS THAT WE HAD EXPERIENCED AS THE SHOWERS ARRIVED AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN HAVE ALSO SLACKENED AS THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET HAS BEEN SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT...AND SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO VA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AS THE
FRONT...THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE SHOWER CHANCES AND THE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO THIN BEHIND IT AS WELL. SOME SHALLOW CU
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MIXING AND
DAYTIME HEATING...BUT IF THESE DEVELOP THESE SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME RATHER SPARSE BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE
WEST BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN RATHER QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHWEST...USHERING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT AS
DRY AS THE AIRMASS THAT WAS EXPERIENCED ON SUNDAY. THIS AIRMASS
SHOULD ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHILE DEWPOINTS
DROP OFF TO AROUND 30 AND PROBABLY BELOW FOR A TIME. THE MAV
NUMBERS AT PRESENT ARE TOO DRY AND ARE LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DEEP MIXING AND UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS
SUGGEST SOME UPPER 20S BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
RH BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME
PLACES A COUPLE OF PERCENT BELOW 30 PERCENT.

THIS INITIALLY DRY AIRMASS AND ANTICIPATED BREAK IN CLOUDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING AND INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION AND SETTLES NEAR THE
UPSTATE SC REGION BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. THIS DECOUPLING SHOULD
OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALSO
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS LEADS
TO A POTENTIAL TRICKY HOURLY TEMPERATURE FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS THAT
GUIDANCE WILL LIKELY NOT HANDLE WELL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS A
MODERATE RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT IS ANTICIPATED...ESPECIALLY
FOR VALLEYS ALONG OR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 64 AND TO THE EAST OF
INTERSTATE 75. SOME LOW TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS... WHILE RIDGETOP AREAS LIKE JKL SHOULD HOLD IN THE
LOWER 40S.

AS THE COLD FRONT DROP SOUTH INTO THE OH VALLEY ON TUESDAY...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD KEEP WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN AVERAGE.
WINDS SHOULD INITIALLY BE FROM A DRY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WEST WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO RECOVER AND DEWPOINTS TO GRADUALLY COME
UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DESPITE DEEP MIXING. RH SHOULD BOTTOM OUT
NOT FAR FROM 30 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE WINDS
SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR POSSIBLY A SHOWER NEAR
THE VA BORDER...OTHERWISE...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ON TUE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER KENTUCKY AFTER A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF TO SET UP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. SOME OF THE DETAILS...INCLUDING QPF
AMOUNTS...ARE STILL A BIT UNCLEAR DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...
BUT IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS COME THROUGH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND
THEN AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COMES ON FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE BETTER SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY.
SO HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE GRIDS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS KENTUCKY...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DOMINATE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KLMK 300712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Weak cold front moving through the region this hour, with showers
out ahead of it and east of the forecast area. High pressure behind
this front will move into the Tennessee Valley by this evening. Then
another front will move through the region Tuesday, as a surface low
crosses well to our north. This front will be even more starved for
moisture than the one going through us now. Will continue
advertising a dry passage.

Despite this morning`s frontal passage, temperatures look to be a
little warmer today than Sunday. Stronger southwesterly flow ahead
of Tuesday`s front should make that day warmer still, with highs
generally around 70.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Tuesday Night - Wednesday...

Surface high pressure and a progressive upper ridge will dominate
the pattern as we enter mid week. This will lead to dry conditions
and pleasant high temperatures on Wednesday just above normal
ranging from 65 to 70 in most spots. Lows Tuesday night/Wednesday
morning will be in the upper 30s north to low and mid 40s elsewhere.

Wednesday Night - Friday Night...

As we move through the end of the week, the pattern will become much
more active. Upper flow will flatten out or will take on a shallow
SW component. Meanwhile, the surface pressure gradient will tighten
over the Ohio River Valley in response to a passing low over the
northern Great Lakes and our departed high off the mid Atlantic
Coast. By Wednesday night, some isolated or widely scattered rain
showers will be possible in response to the southerly flow/weak
isentropic lift. Expect milder lows in the 50s. A cold front
trailing from the aforementioned system over the northern Great
Lakes will begin to approach on Thursday, laying out nearly parallel
to the upper flow along or just north of our CWA. There is some
question/ disagreement in timing placement of this boundary which
will ultimately decide how much coverage of showers and
thunderstorms we get. Confidence is higher that we will stay on the
warm side of the boundary on Thursday which will allow for temps in
the low and mid 70s. For now, will call for a chance of
showers/storms.

Shower and storm chances are expected to then persist into Thursday
night and Friday as the nearly stalled frontal boundary hangs near
the area and waves of energy eject out of the western CONUS trough
over our region. The trough axis looks to finally swing through
sometime Friday night, ending our precipitation chances from west to
east.

Will continue to keep an eye on chances for stronger storms Thursday
through Friday as details become more clear. The previous forecast
discussed the scenario where more instability looks likely on Thursday
with less shear. Meanwhile, Friday has better shear with less in the
way of instability. These scenarios still look reasonable, but won`t
get much more specific until details on timing/placement of the
boundary and individual waves become more clear. Temperatures will
be mild during this time on the warm side of the boundary.

Saturday - Sunday...

Cooler and dry conditions return for the weekend as Canadian high
pressure settles over the area. Highs will only be in the 50s on
Saturday with lows back in the upper 30s. Temperatures will quickly
modify back into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300632 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE MEASURING...BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY 0.05 OR LESS. THE CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN VALID.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE VICINITY
OF FLEMINGSBURG...SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FINALLY COMING UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS.
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND AS IT STANDS
NOW SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE ON THROUGH WITH JUST A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOTED
BACK BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FASTER
CLEARING BACK BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL MEAN A FASTER RETURN
OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES REALLY NOT
GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE MORNING...COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...COULD SPELL A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY
PUSHING 60 IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300632 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE MEASURING...BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY 0.05 OR LESS. THE CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN VALID.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE VICINITY
OF FLEMINGSBURG...SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FINALLY COMING UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS.
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND AS IT STANDS
NOW SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE ON THROUGH WITH JUST A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOTED
BACK BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FASTER
CLEARING BACK BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL MEAN A FASTER RETURN
OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES REALLY NOT
GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE MORNING...COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...COULD SPELL A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY
PUSHING 60 IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 300632 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE MEASURING...BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY 0.05 OR LESS. THE CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN VALID.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE VICINITY
OF FLEMINGSBURG...SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FINALLY COMING UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS.
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND AS IT STANDS
NOW SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE ON THROUGH WITH JUST A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOTED
BACK BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FASTER
CLEARING BACK BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL MEAN A FASTER RETURN
OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES REALLY NOT
GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE MORNING...COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...COULD SPELL A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY
PUSHING 60 IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 300632 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION
TRENDS. THIS LED TO NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD DEPART THE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE MEASURING...BUT AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH...AND MOSTLY 0.05 OR LESS. THE CATEGORICAL POPS
THROUGH FOR MEASURABLE RAIN REMAIN VALID.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE VICINITY
OF FLEMINGSBURG...SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FINALLY COMING UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS.
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND AS IT STANDS
NOW SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE ON THROUGH WITH JUST A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOTED
BACK BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FASTER
CLEARING BACK BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL MEAN A FASTER RETURN
OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES REALLY NOT
GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE MORNING...COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...COULD SPELL A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY
PUSHING 60 IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2015

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS WORKING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH ATTM. THE DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WAS INITIALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION IS
KEEPING CIGS IN THE VFR RANGE. WITH VFR CIGS AND VIS OBSERVED
UPSTREAM WHERE THE AIRMASS WAS MORE MOIST AND THE FACT THAT THE
BAND OF SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE FIRST 2 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD AT SYM...JKL...LOZ AND SME AND THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF SJS...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE CIGS AND VIS IN THE
VFR RANGE JUST ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR BREAK THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR CIGS AND OR VIS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT ANY
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 3
TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT INTO SOME
HIGH BASED FLAT CU 12 THROUGH AROUND 17Z...BEFORE MIXING OUT
ALTOGETHER. WINDS WILL BE A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE FIRST 3
HOURS OF THE PERIOD OR SO WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...WITH SOME
SHIFTS TO WEST IN SHOWERS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST BEHIND THE
FRONT...BETWEEN ABOUT 9Z AND 12Z...THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 15Z WITH
SPEEDS AT ALL OF THESE DIRECTIONS UPWARDS OF 10KT. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN AND BECOME VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE IN
THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300612
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
112 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WITH THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED PCPN DEPARTING THE FA...WE`LL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE WORK INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RECOVERING INTO THE 60S FA WIDE TODAY WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURNING.

THE HIGH SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TONIGHT...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. MORE WARMING
TUESDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

UPPER HEIGHTS RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
SOME MOISTURE WILL BE RIDING INTO/TOPPING THIS RIDGE...AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS STATES. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION
TRANSPORT WILL ULTIMATELY RESULT IN SOME CHANCE CATEGORY POPS FOR
US...PARTICULARLY SEMO...DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE RISING
HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE COOLING EFFECT OF INCREASED
CLOUDS/CHANCE OF PCPN AND WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY IN THE 70S
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKING INTO AND ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY WILL SERVE TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING MID AND HIGH CLOUD
CIGS EARLY IN THE DAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT...HIGH
CLOUDS MAY AGAIN DEVELOP/MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR RULES
WILL PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KLMK 300513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300513
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
113 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2015

Narrow band of light rain showers already past the SDF terminal and
soon will be past BWG/LEX as well. Front is not too far behind, with
wind shift to northwesterly. Model forecasts continue to be
optimistic on clearing out these clouds, which are VFR-based anyway,
soon after frontal passage. Satellite imagery agrees with this
thinking as well. Winds will become more variable by late this
afternoon and overnight as high pressure builds into the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 300342
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE VICINITY
OF FLEMINGSBURG...SOUTHWEST TO BOWLING GREEN WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS ARE
FINALLY COMING UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF THESE SHOWERS.
OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND AS IT STANDS
NOW SHOULD BE QUICK TO MOVE ON THROUGH WITH JUST A 2 TO 4 HOUR
WINDOW FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER NOTED
BACK BEHIND THIS LINE OF SHOWERS...SO HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH FASTER
CLEARING BACK BEHIND THE SHOWERS. THIS WILL MEAN A FASTER RETURN
OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING. ON TOP OF ALL OF THIS TEMPERATURES
HAVE STAYED MUCH MILDER TONIGHT AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY THAT WAY
WITH NO REAL PUSH OF COLDER AIR AND PRECIPITATION RATES REALLY NOT
GOOD ENOUGH TO LOWER TEMPERATURES ALL THAT MUCH. TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT MILDER IN THE MORNING...COMBINED WITH MORE
SUNSHINE...COULD SPELL A WARMER DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS EASILY
PUSHING 60 IN MOST AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INITIALLY BE FOUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
KEEP CIGS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE ERODING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE LOWER
CIGS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 300105
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
905 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 300105
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
905 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 300105
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
905 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 904 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Overall, the current forecast remains on track.  Did back off clouds
and precipitation across southern KY as clouds will thicken later
and precipitation will be confined to later periods overnight.  Also
brought PoPs up slightly across southern IN and northern KY to be
more in line with the 3km HRRR runs.  This will lead us to see the
best chances of rain across southern IN for the next several hours
and then across northern/central KY later this evening and into the
early overnight hours.  Precipitation will end well before sunrise,
so have backed off PoPs for the late overnight period.  Otherwise,
other forecast elements look OK and have some small adjustments have
been made here and there.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......13
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 300017
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INITIALLY BE FOUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
KEEP CIGS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE ERODING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE LOWER
CIGS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 300017
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INITIALLY BE FOUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
KEEP CIGS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE ERODING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE LOWER
CIGS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 300017
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 817 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY TONIGHT.
DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL INITIALLY BE FOUND THROUGH THE EVENING AND
KEEP CIGS VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE
BOUNDARY ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS
FALLING TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. THESE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE ERODING BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS...SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH WITH THE LOWER
CIGS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 300004
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 300004
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 300004
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
704 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MAINLY VFR CIGS LEVELS THIS EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO
SE ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BEFORE SUNSET WILL
DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT WNW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 292323
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VERY SHORT TERM UPDATE TO REFLECT MESOSCALE ADJUSTMENT OF
POP/WEATHER FOR LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST AND THE 3KM HRRR NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KLMK 292314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 292314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 292314
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 714 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through sunset at the
terminals and then diminish into the 10-13kt range this evening.
Mid-high level cloudiness will continue to increase across the
region as a frontal boundary drops in from the northwest.  Ceilings
look to remain VFR this evening, but are likely to drop into the
high end of the MVFR range later tonight as the front crosses the
region.  Rainfall does not look particularly impressive at this
point, and visibilities will likely remain AOB VFR levels.  Front
will push across the region overnight allowing winds to shift from
the SW to the NW nit he 30/07-10Z time frame.  Clearing skies and a
return to VFR conditions are expected by 30/12Z and will continue
throughout the day on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 292313
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292313
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292313
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292313
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292313
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 292313
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

UPDATED TO SLOW DOWN PRECIPITATION ONSET AS WE REMAIN VERY DRY
PRESENTLY WITH RH`S IN THE TEENS. SOME LIGHT MID LEVEL RETURNS
TRYING TO WORK INTO THE REGION...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO REACH
THE GROUND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HRRR/RAP CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
BETTER DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SURFACE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL GO WITH THIS IDEA FOR THE BETTER POPS
TONIGHT AND GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW



000
FXUS63 KPAH 291948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 291948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291948
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WVAPOR SHOWED A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH
A TRAILING FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS
OF MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN INCREASING AREA
OF RETURNS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THOUGH OVERALL THE AIRMASS IS NOT
THAT RICH WITH MOISTURE. ACTIVITY SCATTERED AND LIGHT AT THIS TIME
AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE BAND MOVES NW/SE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST POPS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE SE PART OF THE CWFA WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
SHOWS UP IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...PRIMARILY WEST KY 01-04Z.
850-750MB COMPUTED LI`S APPROACH ZERO...BUT DO NOT PLAN A THUNDER
MENTION JUST YET. BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF US
LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN QUIET WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. RETURN FLOW/INSTABILITY AND A NW FLOW S/WV...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SE 1/3 OF
THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WE HAD HELD
OFF TO THIS POINT...BUT ENOUGH DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST A SMALL
CHANCE MENTION. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO WEDNESDAY. AS ENERGY...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALL TRY TO PUSH IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME FORM OF
A MID LEVEL WAVE. NAM SEEMS OVERDONE COMPARED TO THE OTHER
MODELS...SPREADING CONVECTION AGGRESSIVELY EAST. THIS TIME OF
YEAR...NEVER CAN BE TOO SURE. WILL USE A COMPROMISE APPROACH FOR
NOW AS THE OTHER MODELS KEEP ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. TEMPS THROUGHOUT WERE A BLEND OF EXISTING NUMBERS AND THE
LATEST MOS OUTPUT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...BUT RECENT MODEL INCONSISTENCY STILL YIELDS ONLY AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY EVENING...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIONED ALONG THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRAPED FROM LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH
OF MINNESOTA ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IN WESTERN KANSAS. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL YIELD AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

CURRENT MODEL PROJECTIONS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BEFORE HEADING EAST INTO OKLAHOMA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO RIDE EAST ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY BEFORE EXITING TO THE EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

IF THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO PLAYS OUT AS FORECAST...THE MAIN CONCERN
LATE IN THE WEEK WOULD LIKELY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW WERE TO MOVE
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF ITS PROJECTED TRACK...THEN STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD ALSO BE A CONCERN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST AS LATER MODEL GUIDANCE WARRANTS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM. DAYTIME READINGS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH NIGHTTIME READINGS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WILL ADD SHOWERS TO TERMINAL FORECAST IF NEED BE. OTHERWISE MOSTLY
VFR CIGS AT SEVERAL LEVELS AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET...SOME GUSTS EVEN 25-30KTS. SW WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH...THEN BECOME LIGHT NW OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW



000
FXUS63 KJKL 291938
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH A RATHER
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE. AFTER A WEAK WAVE PASSES BY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF KENTUCKY ON TUESDAY EVENING...ON THE SOUTHERN
JET...ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST REGION. BOTH THE GFS
AND EURO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST WITH
MOISTURE SURGING NORTH INTO THE TN REGION AND INTO KY BY THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPED WARM FRONT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY BRING
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER STRONGER
WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY. WITH THIS WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND THUNDER.
THE GFS AND EURO ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING WITH THIS FRONT.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND CAME WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WAVE TRACKING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THIS FLOW...THIS IS
THE LIKELY SCENARIO AND THE EURO AGREES WITH THIS. THE BLEND ALSO
CAME IN WITH LIKELY POPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH
MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN FACT...GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF PW THROUGH THIS PERIOD...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR THROUGH THE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY PERIOD.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THIS PERIOD
THOUGH. GOOD REASON TO STICK WITH THE VALUES OF THE MODEL ALL
BLEND...IF NOT SLIGHTLY ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291926
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
326 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW SHIFTING SE OF THE REGION...WITH THE CENTER
NEARING THE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO DEPART...DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THOUGH WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE
SRLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TO BEGIN ADVECTING
IN. DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND...BUT CRITICAL RH VALUES IN THE
MID TEENS IN SOME LOCATIONS...WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...PULLING A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE EASTERN KY BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z TONIGHT.

AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES...HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY
WORK IN...AS WILL UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. HOWEVER...STILL IN THE MINDSET
THAT THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA
WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS THE PRECIP MAKES IT INTO THE AREA.
DESPITE MODELS PAINTING A LARGE AREA OF QPF OVER THE CWA QUICKLY
...EXPECT THINGS TO BE SLOW TO START UP...BEFORE FILLING IN AROUND
6Z AND AFTER. EVEN THEN...WHILE POP COVERAGE WILL BE LIKELY TO
DEFINITE...QPF WILL REMAIN LIGHT. STILL EXPECTING ONLY BETWEEN 0.1
AND 0.2 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT EXIT THE REGION AFTER 12Z...ANOTHER BURST
OF DRY NW AIR WILL PULL INTO THE REGION AND DRY THINGS BACK OUT
AGAIN. FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT
TO BE WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
THE BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

WITH A WARMER HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
A MORE SRLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
BE MILD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TEMPS TONIGHT
...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY MAKE IT BACK INTO THE REGION AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291838
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
238 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will move across the Commonwealth tonight, but with the
air behind it originating from the Pacific, temperatures Monday will
actually rise a few degrees above this afternoon`s temperatures.

Robust northwest flow at 500mb is currently present over the eastern
CONUS. A sharp trough will cross the Great Lakes tonight. Brisk
southerly winds will continue through early this evening across
southern Indiana and the Commonwealth, with some gusts approaching
25 mph. Winds will veer to the northwest behind this boundary for
Monday, generally staying around 10mph or so.

Skies will rather quickly cloud over this evening, and a few hours
of light rain will accompany the front tonight. Precipitation will
start over southern Indiana early this evening and will exit our
southern counties during the early morning hours. Rainfall amounts
will be quite light, with everyone receiving less than one quarter
of an inch. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s across the
Bluegrass to the lower 40s west of Interstate 65.

Skies will clear around dawn Monday, and will continue through
Monday night. Highs Monday will range from the upper 50s across the
Bluegrass and southeastern Indiana to the lower to mid 60s near
Bowling Green.


.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 231 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday/Tuesday night as low
pressure advances front the Great Lakes to the Delaware Valley.
There is very little moisture and only some weak forcing with this
system, and the majority of model solutions have been dry with the
fropa.  While a shower or two can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Kentucky Tuesday evening, will stick with silent Pops for
now.

A few showers will again be possible late Wednesday night as a warm
front lifts across the area. A complex weather system, or, more
likely, series of systems, will affect us Thursday through Friday
night.  The details are still very murky, but in general it looks
like we`ll have one round of showers and thunderstorms come through
Thursday/Thursday night and then another Friday/Friday night.  Of
the two days, Friday may stand a better shot at any strong storms
given better energy aloft and better moisture availability.
However, widespread clouds and rain may limit instability.  The
better surface-based instability will actually occur on Thursday,
and sounding progs for that day show some mid-level dry air
available.  Obviously, though, it`s much too early to say anything
definitive.  Just something interesting to watch.

The weekend looks cool but pleasant as high pressure rolls from the
central Plains to the Carolina coast.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 291750
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE SE OF THE REGION...WITH
RETURN FLOW HAVING SHIFTED WINDS TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE. BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KY FROM THE
WEST...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS EASTERN KY FROM
NW TO SE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A QUICK DECREASE
IN CIGS FROM VFR TO MVFR BETWEEN 0 AND 2Z THIS EVENING...AND
POTENTIALLY DOWN TO IFR AS THE RAIN SETS IN OVERNIGHT. RAIN SHOULD
BE QUITE LIGHT IN NATURE...WITH LITTLE EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF VIS
RESTRICTIONS /GENERALLY MVFR OR HIGHER/...THOUGH SOME FOG MAY
DEVELOP AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECT CIGS TO SLOWLY
MIX BACK OUT TO VFR AFTER 12Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW




000
FXUS63 KLMK 291704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 291704
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
104 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Updated Aviation and Forecast Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Brisk southerly winds averaging 12 to 15kt with gusts up to 23kt
will continue through early evening before diminishing to around
10kt and veering to the southwest. After midnight, winds will switch
to the northwest, while remaining at or below 10kt.

High and mid-level clouds will lower and thicken early this evening
ahead of a surface trough. VFR ceilings will lower to high end MVFR
as light rain develops at SDF and LEX in the 9pm to 1am timeframe.
At BWG, expect light rain around 11pm to 3am. Rainfall rates will
not significantly reduce visibilities.

MVFR ceilings will continue until skies clear from north to south
near dawn Monday morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291549
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1149 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep conditions
mostly clear and VFR for the first half of this forecast cycle,
before conditions deteriorate this evening and overnight ahead of a
cold front.

Surface high pressure centered over the area now will scoot off to
the east through the day with SE winds gradually veering to SSW and
increasing in magnitude through the day. In fact, expect 10 to 15
mph SSW winds with gusts up around 25 mph at times this afternoon.
Upper clouds will also begin to overspread the area this afternoon,
with bkn VFR ceilings beginning early this evening at SDF/LEX. Rain
showers are then expected between 8 and 10 PM EDT at SDF/LEX and
around Midnight EDT at BWG with some periods in MVFR in vis/cigs
possible. Cold front passes overnight with veering winds to WNW and
some lingering stratocu that could flirt with MVFR thresholds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291549
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1149 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep conditions
mostly clear and VFR for the first half of this forecast cycle,
before conditions deteriorate this evening and overnight ahead of a
cold front.

Surface high pressure centered over the area now will scoot off to
the east through the day with SE winds gradually veering to SSW and
increasing in magnitude through the day. In fact, expect 10 to 15
mph SSW winds with gusts up around 25 mph at times this afternoon.
Upper clouds will also begin to overspread the area this afternoon,
with bkn VFR ceilings beginning early this evening at SDF/LEX. Rain
showers are then expected between 8 and 10 PM EDT at SDF/LEX and
around Midnight EDT at BWG with some periods in MVFR in vis/cigs
possible. Cold front passes overnight with veering winds to WNW and
some lingering stratocu that could flirt with MVFR thresholds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291549
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1149 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep conditions
mostly clear and VFR for the first half of this forecast cycle,
before conditions deteriorate this evening and overnight ahead of a
cold front.

Surface high pressure centered over the area now will scoot off to
the east through the day with SE winds gradually veering to SSW and
increasing in magnitude through the day. In fact, expect 10 to 15
mph SSW winds with gusts up around 25 mph at times this afternoon.
Upper clouds will also begin to overspread the area this afternoon,
with bkn VFR ceilings beginning early this evening at SDF/LEX. Rain
showers are then expected between 8 and 10 PM EDT at SDF/LEX and
around Midnight EDT at BWG with some periods in MVFR in vis/cigs
possible. Cold front passes overnight with veering winds to WNW and
some lingering stratocu that could flirt with MVFR thresholds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 291549
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1149 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1140 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Winds will pick up from the south southwest early this afternoon as
a sharp surface trough now across Illinois approaches. Skies will
quickly cloud over across southwest Indiana by mid afternoon, and by
late afternoon across locations southeast of the Ohio River. A few
hours of light showers are still expected to spread across southern
Indiana early this evening, and the rest of the Commonwealth
overnight. Skies will clear Monday morning from northwest to
southeast Monday morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Early This Morning...

Temperatures will mostly start out in the 20s this morning, although
a few eastern cool spots will be in the upper teens. At this point,
it doesn`t look like the LEX/FFT minimum temperature records will be
broken early this morning.

Today...

Surface high pressure center over the area now will quickly slide
southeast to the Carolina Coast by early afternoon today. Meanwhile,
a progressive upper ridge axis will slide southeast over the region
by this evening. This pattern will set the stage for a mostly dry
Sunday, before chances for showers increase ahead of a cold front
later in the afternoon and early evening along and north of I-64.
Skies will start out mostly sunny today with a steady south wind
between 10 and 15 mph, gusting up around 25 mph at times. Cloud
cover will increase, especially in the afternoon signaling the
approaching system. Before this occurs, a marked warm up will occur
with temperatures reaching the low and mid 50s in most spots. Upper
50s to around 60 are possible in our far SW.

One other note worth mentioning will be fire weather concern. Some
data suggests that dew points will be slow to recover across the
southeastern half of the CWA this afternoon as some drier air mixes
back down. This will yield minimum relative humidity values near
critical thresholds. Meanwhile, southerly winds will be between 10
to 15 mph with a few gusts up around 25 mph. A look at Raws sites in
our southeast show that minimum 10 hour fuel moistures did get down
around 8-9 percent yesterday so another day of drying will likely
get them around criteria. Overall, its a pretty marginal setup along
with a fairly short window this afternoon as upper clouds spill in.
So, will just mention in FWF and monitor.

Tonight - Monday...

Although showers are possible across southern Indiana and north
central Kentucky from mid afternoon through early evening, the bulk
of the rain will fall overnight where likely chances will be
mentioned for a tenth of an inch or two of rainfall. Conditions
should be dry by Monday morning with skies quickly clearing behind
the passing cold front and high pressure building back in. Won`t see
a big cool down from this frontal passage as airmass is from a
Pacific origin. In fact, highs on Monday will likely be a couple/few
degrees warmer than Sunday. Look for mainly upper 50s and low 60s.


.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

High pressure will start off over the Tennessee Valley Monday
evening. That high will shift east as a weak cool front drops into
the Midwest Tuesday. Models had been dry with this feature, but the
latest GFS is starting to show some light QPF across south central
KY and the new NAM has some light returns in our southeast Tuesday
night. Ongoing forecast has been dry, and some of the better
performing models for pops in this mid-range period continue to
argue this way, so will keep them dry for now.

Forecast models are coming into better agreement on the next system
to affect the region for the end of the work week. Our region should
be solidly in the warm sector Thursday, with breezy south winds
bringing temperatures well above normal. That heating combined with
increasing moisture over the region should lead to scattered to
numerous thunderstorms. The latest GFS then brings the front into
the region Thursday night, whereas the GEM/12Z Euro hang it up to
our northwest as another disturbance developing over the central
Plains slows it down. The somewhat zonal flow aloft would lean more
toward the slower solution, until that next disturbance comes in to
kick the front forward. The new Euro coming in generally agrees with
this scenario as well.

The 12Z European has that next system as a fairly vigorous one, with
a deepening surface low moving across the Midwest during the day
Friday. That said, the new Euro has backed off on this vigorous
solution. Still, this system would be one to watch given the
potential for strong dynamics if such a system were to pass nearby.
Regardless behind it, we should see a cool down likely back to below
normal again for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2015

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will keep conditions
mostly clear and VFR for the first half of this forecast cycle,
before conditions deteriorate this evening and overnight ahead of a
cold front.

Surface high pressure centered over the area now will scoot off to
the east through the day with SE winds gradually veering to SSW and
increasing in magnitude through the day. In fact, expect 10 to 15
mph SSW winds with gusts up around 25 mph at times this afternoon.
Upper clouds will also begin to overspread the area this afternoon,
with bkn VFR ceilings beginning early this evening at SDF/LEX. Rain
showers are then expected between 8 and 10 PM EDT at SDF/LEX and
around Midnight EDT at BWG with some periods in MVFR in vis/cigs
possible. Cold front passes overnight with veering winds to WNW and
some lingering stratocu that could flirt with MVFR thresholds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......RJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 291520
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH AROUND 14Z...BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BREAKS. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5 TO 10KT AND
BECOME AROUND 14Z...ESPECIALLY AT SME AND SYM. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
0Z TO 3Z...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH. VIS AND OR CIGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY/JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 291520
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH AROUND 14Z...BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BREAKS. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5 TO 10KT AND
BECOME AROUND 14Z...ESPECIALLY AT SME AND SYM. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
0Z TO 3Z...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH. VIS AND OR CIGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY/JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 291520
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH AROUND 14Z...BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BREAKS. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5 TO 10KT AND
BECOME AROUND 14Z...ESPECIALLY AT SME AND SYM. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
0Z TO 3Z...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH. VIS AND OR CIGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY/JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 291520
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS TO MAKE SURE THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST WAS WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF ONGOING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR TEMPS AND DEW POINTS AS WE HEAD INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND RH VALUES ARE IN A DECLINING STATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. KENTUCKY MESONET INDICATING
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER TEENS THIS
MORNING. WE HAVE SEEN A RECORD LOW TEMP HERE AT JKL AS WELL.
TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. FORECAST PACKAGE ONLY
REQUIRED A FEW TWEAKS TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TWO ISSUES TO DEAL WITH...FIRST BEING VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. SECOND CONCERNS THE PASSAGE OF A SFC COLD FRONTAL
SYSTEM TONIGHT.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES. COMBINED THIS WILL
ALLOW VERY DRY AIR TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE SFC...ALL WHILE TEMPERATURES MAKE A STRONG
REBOUND. AS A RESULT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS
BY THIS AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL SEND A SFC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REGION.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP A BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EAT AWAY AT SOME OF
THE MODEL/S ADVERTISED QPF VALUES. CONSEQUENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING
ONE OF THOSE RELATIVELY HIGH POP...LOW QPF EVENTS. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MONDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY...CONSIDERING THAT THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR MASS BEHIND
THIS FRONT IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...TEMPERATURES WILL TURN OUT TO BE
WARMER BEHIND THE SYSTEM THAN AHEAD. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT TROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WESTERN US RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND EASTERN AK...WITH A
TROUGH FROM THE PLAINS INTO EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN US.
THE AXIS OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN CANADA
SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES AND THEN SOUTH TO THE EAST OF
FL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROJECTED TO BE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA AT THAT TIME AS WILL A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
GULF OF AK SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE
WEST OF THE US AND CANADIAN COAST.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE PATTERN WILL HAVE A ZONAL FLAVOR WITH THE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND NORTHEASTERN STATES BECOMING MORE
BROAD AND THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE WEST COAST SHIFTING TO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH INITIALLY WEST OF THE BAJA
OF CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO GET KICKED INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THE TROUGH WORKING INTO THE WESTERN US. THIS BY WED
EVENING...THE 0Z GFS AND 0Z CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGE AXIS TO HAVE
MOVED TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES WITH SOME MODEL
VARIABILITY WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION. AT THAT POINT...HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE FALLING OVER THE PLAINS REGION. WED NIGHT INTO THU...THE
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROJECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES NORTH INTO ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC WITH UNCERTAINTY INCREASING IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH
MOVING AT THAT POINT FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM THE 0Z GFS AND
0Z ECMWF IS FOR THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO GENERALLY PASS SOUTH OF
EASTERN KY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...BUT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMING MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES LEADING TO A WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR MASS MOVING IN. THE CONSENSUS IS ALSO FOR THE TROUGH TO MOVE
FURTHER EAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AS WELL AS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NEAR THE OH VALLEY REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. JUST
BEYOND THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH
EASTERN CANADIAN TO EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING.

THIS PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE WEATHER DUE TO
THE QUASI ZONAL PATTERN. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY
REGION...WHICH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MON NIGHT INTO
TUE. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION.ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT...BUT BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AT THAT POINT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST NOSING INTO THE AREA FOR
A TIME. MEANWHILE...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
RATHER QUICKLY NEAR THE US CANADIAN BORDER TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FROM WED INTO WED NIGHT...A WARM FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN KY. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
THU INTO FRI...WITH ANTHER WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND
TRACKING FROM THE PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY REGION THU INTO EARLY
FRIDAY AND THEN FURTHER NORTHEAST WHICH MAY SLOW DOWN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD. DURING THIS
PERIOD...FROM LATE WED NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE TWO PERIODS
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES POSSIBLY MAX OUT...FROM THU NIGHT INTO
EARLY ON FRIDAY AND THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THE FIRST
ROUND WOULD BE WITH SOME INSENTROPIC LIFT AND POSSIBLY SOME JET
INTERACTION AND THE SECOND ROUND NEAR AND AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH SOME UPPER JET DYNAMICS.
MOISTURE INCREASES SUCH THAT THUNDER HAS BEEN INCLUDED FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...BUT CHANCES ARE PROBABLY BEST THU NIGHT AS WINDS
THROUGH THE COLUMN INCREASE AND WITH PW INCREASING SOME GOOD RAINERS
AND POSSIBLY A STRONG STORM OR TWO. CHANCES MAY ALSO PEAK AT SOME
POINT ON FRIDAY...PENDING THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND FROM TUE INTO THU OR FRI
AS 850 MB TEMPS CLIMB FROM NOT FAR FROM 0C AT PRESENT TO 10 TO 12C
BY THU INTO FRIDAY. A DROP IN 850 MB TEMPS SHOULD DROP AS THE TROUGH
MOVES IN LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY DOWN
TO AROUND -5C...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AND TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT THROUGH AROUND 14Z...BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BREAKS. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER EAST SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 5 TO 10KT AND
BECOME AROUND 14Z...ESPECIALLY AT SME AND SYM. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
0Z TO 3Z...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS THROUGH. VIS AND OR CIGS
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MVFR RANGE AS THE AREA OF SHOWERS MOVES
THROUGH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY/JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 291421
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
921 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

CLEANED UP THE HOURLY POP GRIDS AND BROUGHT TEMPERATURES UP FASTER
THROUGH 17Z THAN FORECAST. THE DIURNAL TREND HAS BEEN TOO SLOW
CAPTURING THE INCREASINGLY RAPID WARM UPS WE ARE SEEING WITH THE
INCREASED SUN ANGLE IN THE EARLY MORNING. THIS ALSO RESULTED IN
ADJUSTMENTS TO RH (LOWER) FOR THOSE WITH FIRE WEATHER INTERESTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE APPALACHIANS WILL SLIDE EAST OVER
THE ATLANTIC...AS A SHORT WAVE DRIVES A COLD FRONT INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AND WORK THEIR WAY
SOUTH ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE
NEARLY COMPLETELY MADE PASSAGE BY 06Z...WITH SHOWERS EFFECTIVELY
ENDING BY/AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID MISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT`S DEPARTURE MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP
TEMPS THAT WERE IN THE 50S SUNDAY...RECOVER INTO THE 60S FOR
MONDAY. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO
NUDGE THE MERCURY UPWARDS TOWARD 70 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY HIGHS.
LOWS LIKEWISE WILL MODERATE FROM THE 30S TONIGHT TO 40S TOMORROW
NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION...SO FOR NOW WE WILL LEAVE TUESDAY DRY IN THE
FORECAST...BUT A SMALL POP MAY EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

A QUASI-ZONAL/LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE CONUS
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS IS A SHARP DEPARTURE FROM THE VERY
PERSISTENT WEST COAST RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN OF THE PAST
COUPLE MONTHS. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A LOW-AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS
THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE SPECIFIC DETAILS...A LOW-AMPLITUDE 500 MB RIDGE WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF THIS RIDGE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS FEATURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED 500 MB RIDGE SHOULD BRING RATHER
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL PASS EAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
KENTUCKY. THE MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. A
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL RAISE BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL LAG FAR TO
OUR WEST OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
PRECIP COVERAGE. WILL KEEP POPS MAINLY IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. POPS
WI