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000
FXUS63 KPAH 222009
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast through this evening.
As a surface high pressure ridge passes overhead tonight...winds
will become calm. This will be more conducive for ground fog than
the past few nights. Some ifr conditions are possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM






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000
FXUS63 KJKL 221934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO BE DEPARTING THE APPALACHIANS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
THE APPALACHIANS TO START THE PERIOD.

FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER SYSTEM OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE MARITIMES WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR ANOTHER UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO TRACK TOWARD NEW
ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD FRONT WASHING OUT AS
IT APPROACHES THE AREA. THE RIDGE INITIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
DURING THIS TIME AND BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
THE LOWER OH VALLEY AND KY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. THE
SHORTWAVES WORKING THROUGH FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING SHOULD
BRING AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND VALLEY FOG ANTICIPATED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
FROM THE MS VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FROM SUN INTO MON.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THE ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER A BIT WITH THE
DETAILS WITH A SFC LOW TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST
INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THIS TIME...WITH A TRIALING COLD
FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THE LAST COUPLE
OF ECMWF RUNS ARE SHARPER WITH THE SHORTWAVE...OR AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN PART OF IT...AND DEVELOP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF RUNS TRACK WITH LOW WEST
OF THE REGION...BUT VARY FROM RUN TO RUN. MEANWHILE THE LATEST GFS
RUN SHEARS THE FRONT OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD.

CONFIDENCE IN TIMING DECREASES LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH THIS. AS THE
SFC RIDGE REACHES THE EASTERN SEABOARD...RETURN FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS...FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO NEAR 70 IF NOT INTO THE
70S. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE
EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT
CIGS TO RAISE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING SME AND LOZ TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE FOG AND MIST SHOULD STAY IN THE VALLEYS AND
JUST EXPECTING SOME MVFR MIST AS IS RAISES OUT OF THE VALLEYS. EXPECT
THE CLOUD COVER AT JKL AND SJS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND AM
FORECASTING THE STRATUS DECK TO FORM AGAIN NEAR DAWN AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW






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000
FXUS63 KLMK 221912
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost Advisory in Effect for Late Tonight into Thursday Morning...

Upper level ridging aloft and sfc high pressure will move into the
Ohio Valley late tonight providing for good subsidence across the
region.  Clear skies and light winds are expected overnight and
combined with the subsidence, this should provide an ideal rad
cooling night causing sfc temps to fall into the 33-39 degree range
with perhaps valley/sheltered locations dipping closer to the
freezing mark. These temps combined with low level moisture should
result in frost formation.  However, the extent of frost formation
is unknown since current dewpts are running in the 35-40 degree
range and overnight dewpts are not expected to drop below freezing.
This may result in a heavy dew and perhaps some light fog and
prevent frost formation.  Will go ahead and issue a frost advy from
9z-13z late tonight into tomorrow morning though assuming at least
areas of frost will form in rural locations. Those with sensitive
outdoor plants should take precautions to protect them from frost.

After a chilly start Thursday, expect temps to warm into the upper
50s and lower 60s Thurs afternoon.  Upper level clouds will increase
throughout the day.

Thursday night a dry front will approach the area bringing increased
cloudiness.  Low temps will range from the mid 40s west of I-65 to
upper 30s/lower 40s east of I-65.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Main forecast concerns in the long term are a shortwave trough
passing through Friday then the next chance for rain during the
middle of next week.

A shortwave trough that currently resides across the northern
Rockies will advance eastward across the Great Lakes region
Thursday, then dip southeast toward the Ohio River valley on Friday.
22.12z guidance continues to show a spread in regard to its
strength, with the ECMWF the stronger outlier. However, its solution
has trended weaker and flatter compared to the 00z run. Despite the
upper level forcing, high pressure at the surface and the drier
mid-levels are expected to keep sensible weather limited to just
passing mid/high level clouds Friday. Given this trend and
environment, continued a dry forecast Friday for the area.

In the wake of this system, northwest flow aloft will remain in
place through Sunday with the 500 mb ridge axis extending along the
mid-Mississippi River valley. At the surface, a weak front
approaches the region on Saturday and again with very little
moisture in place, it is expected to pass through dry.

Upper level pattern transitions from zonal to southwesterly late in
the weekend through the first part of next week as a deeper
shortwave trough advances through the central Plains. This system
looks to have more moisture return, as it pushes a front through the
region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Still some timing and
placement differences between the 22.12z guidance but a model
consensus of 30 to 50 percent chances spreading west to east Tuesday
through Wednesday, highest on Tuesday night, looks appropriate at
this time. Soundings show little to no instability, so have kept
thunder mention out of the forecast at this point.

Temperature wise, plan on a steady warm up Friday through early next
week, with the exception Sunday as cooler air slides in the wake of
the Saturday frontal passage. Readings will rise above normal with
the warmest day expected Monday with middle 70s common.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221850
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE IS
FLIRTING WITH SETTING A RECORD FOR THE MIN HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR THE
DAY. THE RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IS 51 AND THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE UP THROUGH 2:50 PM IS 50 DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY UP THE EAST COAST AND IS FORECAST TO BE OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY MORNING. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT BUT SHOULD DO LITTLE
MORE THAN BRING SOME INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS.

THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE CLOUD FORECAST. THE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY MORE
PERSISTENT THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE CLOUDS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL
THEN HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS WELL. FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS...FROST HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH NON EXISTENT. THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS HAVE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. WITH AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...THE CHANCE FOR FROST TO FORM IS NORMALLY PRETTY
LOW. WITH ALL THIS IS MIND...JUST PUT SOME PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE
FORECAST FOR VALLY LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I 75. FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH SO THAT FROST WILL
NOT OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

THE EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPPER LOW JUST OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST IS BRINGING WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN KEEPING THINGS CLOUDY AND FAIRLY
DAMP FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE
EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS
CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST TRENDS...EXPECT
CIGS TO RAISE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EXPECTING SME AND LOZ TO
CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. THE FOG AND MIST SHOULD STAY IN THE VALLEYS AND
JUST EXPECTING SOME MVFR MIST AS IS RAISES OUT OF THE VALLEYS. EXPECT
THE CLOUD COVER AT JKL AND SJS TO BE MORE PERSISTENT AND AM
FORECASTING THE STRATUS DECK TO FORM AGAIN NEAR DAWN AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221729
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
129 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 125 PM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The most immediate TAF concern is at LEX this afternoon as low
clouds continue to remain over the TAF site.  They will likely
bounce between SCT and BKN this afternoon just under 2 kft.  These
low clouds look mostly diurnally driven so do expect them to burn
off around or after sunset with conditions returning to VFR at LEX.
All TAF sites stand a chance at MVFR fog tomorrow morning around
sunrise.  Crossover temps and NAM soundings look favorable, however,
believe the light NE wind overnight will allow slight dry air
advection which should limit fog intensity.  Thus, will continue
MVFR vsbys and monitor environmental conditions closely this evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221400
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Updated the forecast to tweak sky cover grids to current satellite
trends.  The Bluegrass should see low clouds through the morning
hours before becoming only partly cloudy.  Also increased high temps
for today since we overachieved on high temps yesterday and mostly
sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected over the region today.
High temps should range from the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions and light N-NE winds are expected through
the valid TAF period, with just a couple of caveats. First issue in
the near term is one last lobe of strato-cu pinwheeling south into
central Kentucky. Expect LEX and possibly SDF to get a barely-VFR
ceiling by issuance time. Can`t rule out high-end MVFR in LEX based
on upstream obs, but will keep it VFR unless it shows its hand
before issuance. Look for clearing by mid-morning at SDF and late
morning at LEX as upper ridging starts to win out.

Other issue is the potential for fog just before daybreak Thursday.
MOS guidance shows dense fog at all three terminals, and given that
crossover temps are likely to be reached, can`t discount this
solution. Won`t jump on board with dense fog without seeing what
afternoon mixing does for dewpoints, but will carry a TEMPO for
borderline MVFR/IFR visibilities as a heads-up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......13
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 221124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Today will be another sunny day for most of our region. There may
be some afternoon cumulus clouds again in southwest Indiana and
adjoining areas...but coverage will be less than Tuesday. As for
high temps...will keep forecast highs a little above model
guidance for most areas. Nearly all guidance shows highs will be 5
to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday...even though 850 mb temps
actually warm up a degree or two with another day of full sun.
Guidance showed a cool bias on Tuesday...and this appears to be
the case again today. The exception to this bias is in the
Evansville region...where clouds kept temps close to guidance
Tuesday.

The main forecast concern for tonight is still frost. A surface
ridge axis will be nearly overhead late tonight. Surface winds
will become nearly calm...which is not the case at this current
hour. The ongoing winds are likely keeping temps several degrees
higher than they will be early Thursday morning. Again prefer the
00z ecmwf mos lows...which are colder than other guidance. The in-
house weighted model...which uses the best performing guidance
over recent model cycles...is in excellent agreement with the
ecmwf. This means that many areas will fall into the mid
30s. Frost is likely in outlying and rural areas...so will
continue the mention of patchy frost in zones/grids and hwo. There
is still not enough confidence in a more widespread frost to issue
a Frost Advisory. The day shift will re-evaluate the need for an
advisory for widespread frost.

On Thursday...an increase in mid and high cloudiness will occur
ahead of a weakening shortwave trough moving southeast from the
Upper Mississippi Valley. These clouds will keep temps on the cool
side despite the wind shift into the southwest. The clouds will
persist through Thursday night. The 00z ecmwf is still the outlier
in generating a little light rain across southwest Indiana and
adjoining counties. Will keep the forecast dry...as nearly all
other guidance indicates.

Friday and Friday night will become mainly clear as a large upper
level ridge builds east from the Plains. Low level winds will become
west to southwest...bringing a warming trend.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very little to discuss through most of the long term period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is expected to
produce plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the work week, the upcoming weekend, and the first day of
next week.

The next chance of precipitation is forecast to make its way into
the far western/northwestern portions of our CWA Next Monday night
with the approach of a weather system coming out of the plains.
Confidence in the evolution of this system is rather low at the
moment as latest long range models not in good agreement.

Around midday Monday the GFS and ECMWF are similar in that they show
the driving mechanism behind this system (a short wave) located over
Colorado. Beyond that their solutions really begin to diverge.

The GFS takes the short wave and associated surface low on a track
from Colorado northeast into the Great Lakes region by midday
Tuesday with a cold front trailing southwest into the southern
plains. During the same 24 hours the ECMWF drives the short wave,
surface low, and front almost due east with all of them moving into
the western/northwestern sections of our CWA.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night the GFS shows the frontal
boundary becoming more parallel to the southwest flow aloft thereby
hanging it up over the northwest half of our CWA. In the same time
frame, the ECMWF promptly moves the system across our CWA, then off
to the east.

Either solution means better chances for precipitation across our
CWA on Tuesday, but obviously the evolution of this system will make
all the difference where placement of QPF is concerned. We will
continue to closely monitor future model runs in hopes that
eventually there will be better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Some ground fog at kcgi will burn off quickly after sunrise.
Otherwise...no clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast through this
evening. As a surface high pressure ridge passes overhead
tonight...winds will become calm. This will be more conducive for
ground fog than the past few nights. Some ifr conditions are
possible toward sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY








000
FXUS63 KJKL 221108
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
708 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS MORNING. LOADED IN THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE NEAR-TERM FORECAST TO MAKE SURE
THAT TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH SOME LOWER
MVFR CIGS. EXPECT DRY AIR TO BEGIN INTRUDING FROM THE W...EFFECTIVELY
CUTTING OFF THE CLOUD COVER BEGINNING IN THE SW OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY
A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL SINK SE FROM WV TO THE SEABOARD OF VA AND
NC BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A
SHALLOW RIDGING PATTERN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...AND RIDE ALONG NW
FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NE/RN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP THESE
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES JUST ALONG PIKE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PULL OF WINDS FROM
THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT...LATEST
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE DAY TODAY. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO...BESIDES HIGH WINDS
ALOFT...IS A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARDS AND
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW..AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE HAS BEEN TALK BETWEEN THE OFFICES CONCERNING WHETHER OR NOT TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. GENERAL
CONSENSUS WAS TO PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFTS AND LET THEM DECIDE IF
ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER ADDING IN FROST FOR
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS 37 DEGREES OR LESS...WE STILL SEEM TO
BE A BIT LIMITED ON COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE FAR
NORTH...FAR SOUTH...AND IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ADDING IN
FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTING 38 DEGREES AND UNDER...WOULD PUT MUCH OF
THE AREA IN PATCHY/AREAL COVERAGE AND MATCHED UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WEIGHING BOTH SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO STICK
WITH INCLUDING FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 37 DEGREES OR LESS
OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF SPARSER COVERAGE...SINCE 38 DEGREES SEEMED TO
BE PUSHING THE LIMITS OF BEING TOO WARM FOR ICE TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE PERIOD
STARTS...WITH UNEVENTFUL WX. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING IN
FROM THE NW...AND PASSING OVER ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. SOME
MODEL RUNS HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE DRY...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE USED. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...WE CAN EXPECT BENIGN NW FLOW
ALOFT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN PASS EAST OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY
WX CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING KY FROM THE W OR NW LATE TUESDAY...BUT
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT
PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
MVFR AT TAF SITES BEFORE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS LIFTING
BACK TO LOW END VFR BY 15 TO 18Z. SCATTERING OUT SHOULD OCCUR FIRST
IN THE SOUTHWEST /I.E. SME AND LOZ/ AND WILL OCCUR LAST IN THE FAR
EAST /I.E. SJS/. ONCE DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD AND SKIES BEGIN
CLEARING...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER CLEARING SKIES. BY TONIGHT...SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING LOWERING
CIGS ONCE MORE...BUT HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP CLOUDS SCT
AT BEST. DO EXPECT BOTH FROST AND FOG TO DEVELOP...BUT MOST OF THE
FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
TAF SITES. AS SUCH...CHOSE TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF FOG OUT AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221034
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
634 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Prevailing VFR conditions and light N-NE winds are expected through
the valid TAF period, with just a couple of caveats. First issue in
the near term is one last lobe of strato-cu pinwheeling south into
central Kentucky. Expect LEX and possibly SDF to get a barely-VFR
ceiling by issuance time. Can`t rule out high-end MVFR in LEX based
on upstream obs, but will keep it VFR unless it shows its hand
before issuance. Look for clearing by mid-morning at SDF and late
morning at LEX as upper ridging starts to win out.

Other issue is the potential for fog just before daybreak Thursday.
MOS guidance shows dense fog at all three terminals, and given that
crossover temps are likely to be reached, can`t discount this
solution. Won`t jump on board with dense fog without seeing what
afternoon mixing does for dewpoints, but will carry a TEMPO for
borderline MVFR/IFR visibilities as a heads-up.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY
A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL SINK SE FROM WV TO THE SEABOARD OF VA AND
NC BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A
SHALLOW RIDGING PATTERN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...AND RIDE ALONG NW
FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NE/RN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP THESE
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES JUST ALONG PIKE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PULL OF WINDS FROM
THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT...LATEST
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE DAY TODAY. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO...BESIDES HIGH WINDS
ALOFT...IS A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARDS AND
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW..AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE HAS BEEN TALK BETWEEN THE OFFICES CONCERNING WHETHER OR NOT TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. GENERAL
CONSENSUS WAS TO PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFTS AND LET THEM DECIDE IF
ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER ADDING IN FROST FOR
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS 37 DEGREES OR LESS...WE STILL SEEM TO
BE A BIT LIMITED ON COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE FAR
NORTH...FAR SOUTH...AND IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ADDING IN
FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTING 38 DEGREES AND UNDER...WOULD PUT MUCH OF
THE AREA IN PATCHY/AREAL COVERAGE AND MATCHED UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WEIGHING BOTH SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO STICK
WITH INCLUDING FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 37 DEGREES OR LESS
OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF SPARSER COVERAGE...SINCE 38 DEGREES SEEMED TO
BE PUSHING THE LIMITS OF BEING TOO WARM FOR ICE TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE PERIOD
STARTS...WITH UNEVENTFUL WX. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING IN
FROM THE NW...AND PASSING OVER ON FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. SOME
MODEL RUNS HAVE OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SOME LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT LATEST RUNS ARE DRY...AND A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BE USED. ONCE THIS MOVES PAST...WE CAN EXPECT BENIGN NW FLOW
ALOFT WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN PASS EAST OVER THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH DRY
WX CONTINUING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING KY FROM THE W OR NW LATE TUESDAY...BUT
ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E.
KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY
A CUT OFF LOW THAT WILL SINK SE FROM WV TO THE SEABOARD OF VA AND
NC BY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NE
DIRECTION...ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...WITH
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS A
SHALLOW RIDGING PATTERN TRIES TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THIS LOW...AND RIDE ALONG NW
FLOW INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NE/RN MOST PORTION OF THE CWA...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPSLOPE INDUCED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE FAR
EAST. GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST TODAY COULD RESULT IN ENOUGH MOVEMENT TO KEEP THESE
RAIN SHOWER CHANCES JUST ALONG PIKE COUNTY AND POINTS EASTWARD
OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA.

MEANWHILE...THIS SET UP WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG PULL OF WINDS FROM
THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN FACT...LATEST
ECMWF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STRONG JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE DAY TODAY. WHAT THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO...BESIDES HIGH WINDS
ALOFT...IS A STRONG PULL OF CANADIAN TEMPERATURES SOUTHWARDS AND
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE
MUCH DEPENDENT ON THE CLOUD COVER...BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY...WARMING SLIGHTLY BY TOMORROW..AND THE
POTENTIAL OF FROST DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THERE HAS BEEN TALK BETWEEN THE OFFICES CONCERNING WHETHER OR NOT TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. GENERAL
CONSENSUS WAS TO PASS ALONG TO THE DAY SHIFTS AND LET THEM DECIDE IF
ONE IS NEEDED OR NOT. AT THIS POINT...AFTER ADDING IN FROST FOR
LOCATIONS THAT WILL SEE TEMPS 37 DEGREES OR LESS...WE STILL SEEM TO
BE A BIT LIMITED ON COVERAGE...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE FAR
NORTH...FAR SOUTH...AND IN VALLEY LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ADDING IN
FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTING 38 DEGREES AND UNDER...WOULD PUT MUCH OF
THE AREA IN PATCHY/AREAL COVERAGE AND MATCHED UP BETTER WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WEIGHING BOTH SITUATIONS...DECIDED TO STICK
WITH INCLUDING FROST FOR AREAS EXPECTED TO SEE 37 DEGREES OR LESS
OVERNIGHT IN SPITE OF SPARSER COVERAGE...SINCE 38 DEGREES SEEMED TO
BE PUSHING THE LIMITS OF BEING TOO WARM FOR ICE TO FORM.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E.
KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KPAH 220805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday night/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Today will be another sunny day for most of our region. There may
be some afternoon cumulus clouds again in southwest Indiana and
adjoining areas...but coverage will be less than Tuesday. As for
high temps...will keep forecast highs a little above model
guidance for most areas. Nearly all guidance shows highs will be 5
to 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday...even though 850 mb temps
actually warm up a degree or two with another day of full sun.
Guidance showed a cool bias on Tuesday...and this appears to be
the case again today. The exception to this bias is in the
Evansville region...where clouds kept temps close to guidance
Tuesday.

The main forecast concern for tonight is still frost. A surface
ridge axis will be nearly overhead late tonight. Surface winds
will become nearly calm...which is not the case at this current
hour. The ongoing winds are likely keeping temps several degrees
higher than they will be early Thursday morning. Again prefer the
00z ecmwf mos lows...which are colder than other guidance. The in-
house weighted model...which uses the best performing guidance
over recent model cycles...is in excellent agreement with the
ecmwf. This means that many areas will fall into the mid
30s. Frost is likely in outlying and rural areas...so will
continue the mention of patchy frost in zones/grids and hwo. There
is still not enough confidence in a more widespread frost to issue
a Frost Advisory. The day shift will re-evaluate the need for an
advisory for widespread frost.

On Thursday...an increase in mid and high cloudiness will occur
ahead of a weakening shortwave trough moving southeast from the
Upper Mississippi Valley. These clouds will keep temps on the cool
side despite the wind shift into the southwest. The clouds will
persist through Thursday night. The 00z ecmwf is still the outlier
in generating a little light rain across southwest Indiana and
adjoining counties. Will keep the forecast dry...as nearly all
other guidance indicates.

Friday and Friday night will become mainly clear as a large upper
level ridge builds east from the Plains. Low level winds will become
west to southwest...bringing a warming trend.

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Very little to discuss through most of the long term period.

High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is expected to
produce plenty of sunshine and above normal temperatures through the
rest of the work week, the upcoming weekend, and the first day of
next week.

The next chance of precipitation is forecast to make its way into
the far western/northwestern portions of our CWA Next Monday night
with the approach of a weather system coming out of the plains.
Confidence in the evolution of this system is rather low at the
moment as latest long range models not in good agreement.

Around midday Monday the GFS and ECMWF are similar in that they show
the driving mechanism behind this system (a short wave) located over
Colorado. Beyond that their solutions really begin to diverge.

The GFS takes the short wave and associated surface low on a track
from Colorado northeast into the Great Lakes region by midday
Tuesday with a cold front trailing southwest into the southern
plains. During the same 24 hours the ECMWF drives the short wave,
surface low, and front almost due east with all of them moving into
the western/northwestern sections of our CWA.

Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night the GFS shows the frontal
boundary becoming more parallel to the southwest flow aloft thereby
hanging it up over the northwest half of our CWA. In the same time
frame, the ECMWF promptly moves the system across our CWA, then off
to the east.

Either solution means better chances for precipitation across our
CWA on Tuesday, but obviously the evolution of this system will make
all the difference where placement of QPF is concerned. We will
continue to closely monitor future model runs in hopes that
eventually there will be better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220715
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
315 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Frost likely across the region late tonight...

Cyclonic flow around a stacked low pressure system along the
mid-Atlantic coast is beginning to lose its grip on the Ohio Valley.
One more lobe of low clouds will pinwheel south across the Bluegrass
region this morning, but should give way to pleasant fall conditions
by midday. That will leave us with a temperature forecast for the
balance of the short term, and that is significant due to the
potential for frost tonight.

High pressure centered over Wisconsin this morning will modify
slightly as it builds southeast today, leaving a weaker ridge axis
over Indiana and central Kentucky tonight. This along with clear
skies will mean ideal radiational cooling conditions, allowing temps
to easily drop into the 30s. Look for mainly upper 30s in the cities
and west of I-65, but most rural locations across the Bluegrass
should dip into the mid 30s easily. Can`t even rule out a freeze in
some of the more sheltered valleys. Will go with areas of frost from
the Bluegrass region south to Lake Cumberland, with just patchy
frost across most of the remainder of the area. Based on
coordination with neighboring WFOs, will leave the issuance of any
frost/freeze headlines to the day crew.

Daytime temps will run below climo, but some uncertainty as to just
how much. Temps have overachieved recently, but the shallow cold air
and N-NE flow favors cooler temps. Will still lean toward the warmer
GFS MOS given Tuesday`s overachieving temps to our NW.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

A weak shortwave trof will move through the region at the beginning
of the long term, and may bring a few instances of sprinkles or
light rain to southern Indiana and north central Kentucky late
Thursday night into early Friday morning.  High pressure building to
our south will cut off any substantial moisture supply, though, so
most locations will experience increasing clouds but dry conditions.
Lows Thursday night will mostly be in the 40s, but the eastern
valleys will slip into the upper 30s. Decided to go on the cool side
for high temperatures Friday given expected clouds, but readings
should still peak in the 60s.

Weak surface ridging will give us quiet weather Friday night with
low temperatures in the 40s. On Saturday a cold front will push
through from the northwest, but it will be weakening as it does so
and will be bereft of any deep moisture.  So, the forecast will
remain dry, with highs in the 60s.

Saturday night through Monday night high pressure will travel from
the Red River of the North to Cape Hatteras, continuing our placid
weather.  Low temperatures during this period will moderate from mid
40s to mid 50s, and highs from the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Tuesday a cold front will approach from the west and bring a chance
of showers, especially by afternoon west through north of
Louisville. Highs will reach the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The western edge of a broad area of strato-cu extends across Indiana
and central Kentucky, and has been slowly eroding from the west and
south. LEX is the one sure bet to maintain a ceiling through the
night, but it is initially VFR. However, lower strato-cu with MVFR
ceilings lurks over western Ohio, and models suggest that these
lower clouds could pinwheel southward into LEX shortly before
daybreak. Look for a few hours of MVFR ceiling, but will stay above
fuel-alternate thresholds. SDF will be a last-minute decision
whether we even carry a ceiling.

At BWG the bigger question is fog. Looks like we are well on track
to cross over afternoon dewpoints, but with drier air filtering in
and light north winds that might not stay completely calm, there is
some uncertainty. Believe that there will be fog, but it should be
less dense and less persistent than what we had Tuesday morning.
Will carry a TEMPO for IFR conditions.

Once mixing gets going around mid-morning, look for VFR conditions
and unlimited ceilings for the rest of the TAF period. Light north
winds and diurnal cu will diminish around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220555
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS
DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING
WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK
MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL
CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST
TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E.
KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220555
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS
DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING
WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK
MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL
CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST
TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

A STRATOCU DECK CONTINUES TO PLAGUE EASTERN KY UNDER GENERALLY
NORTHERLY FLOW. CIG READINGS FOR THIS CLOUD COVER CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM MVFR TO VFR...BUT PER THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
GUIDANCE...STILL EXPECT SOME CIG LOWERING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. WENT WITH MVFR CIGS AROUND 10Z IN MOST LOCATIONS...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3KT FEET AGL. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING CLOUD
COVER...EXPECT LOWER CIGS TO HANG AROUND THE FAR EAST LONGER /I.E.
KSJS/ AND SCATTER OUT IN THE SOUTHWEST FASTER THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
OCCURS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY UNDER DRY SKIES. LATE TONIGHT...ANOTHER ROUND OF BORDERLINE MVFR
CIGS WILL BE LIKELY. WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
NNW TO THE NNE AT GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220451
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cloud cover will be the only challenge in the forecast for tonight
and Wednesday. Louisville is on the southwestern edge of a slowly
eroding strato-cu shield that extends all the way back through
Pennsylvania. Skies will slowly become partly cloudy overnight at
Louisville, with mostly clear skies expected at Bowling Green, and
with Lexington probably remaining mostly cloudy through Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The western edge of a broad area of strato-cu extends across Indiana
and central Kentucky, and has been slowly eroding from the west and
south. LEX is the one sure bet to maintain a ceiling through the
night, but it is initially VFR. However, lower strato-cu with MVFR
ceilings lurks over western Ohio, and models suggest that these
lower clouds could pinwheel southward into LEX shortly before
daybreak. Look for a few hours of MVFR ceiling, but will stay above
fuel-alternate thresholds. SDF will be a last-minute decision
whether we even carry a ceiling.

At BWG the bigger question is fog. Looks like we are well on track
to cross over afternoon dewpoints, but with drier air filtering in
and light north winds that might not stay completely calm, there is
some uncertainty. Believe that there will be fog, but it should be
less dense and less persistent than what we had Tuesday morning.
Will carry a TEMPO for IFR conditions.

Once mixing gets going around mid-morning, look for VFR conditions
and unlimited ceilings for the rest of the TAF period. Light north
winds and diurnal cu will diminish around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220451
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1251 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cloud cover will be the only challenge in the forecast for tonight
and Wednesday. Louisville is on the southwestern edge of a slowly
eroding strato-cu shield that extends all the way back through
Pennsylvania. Skies will slowly become partly cloudy overnight at
Louisville, with mostly clear skies expected at Bowling Green, and
with Lexington probably remaining mostly cloudy through Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

The western edge of a broad area of strato-cu extends across Indiana
and central Kentucky, and has been slowly eroding from the west and
south. LEX is the one sure bet to maintain a ceiling through the
night, but it is initially VFR. However, lower strato-cu with MVFR
ceilings lurks over western Ohio, and models suggest that these
lower clouds could pinwheel southward into LEX shortly before
daybreak. Look for a few hours of MVFR ceiling, but will stay above
fuel-alternate thresholds. SDF will be a last-minute decision
whether we even carry a ceiling.

At BWG the bigger question is fog. Looks like we are well on track
to cross over afternoon dewpoints, but with drier air filtering in
and light north winds that might not stay completely calm, there is
some uncertainty. Believe that there will be fog, but it should be
less dense and less persistent than what we had Tuesday morning.
Will carry a TEMPO for IFR conditions.

Once mixing gets going around mid-morning, look for VFR conditions
and unlimited ceilings for the rest of the TAF period. Light north
winds and diurnal cu will diminish around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 220435
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 220435
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Surface high pressure will dominate the region through the 06Z TAF
period. Clear skies and light northeast winds will be the rule.
Still cannot rule out some patchy ground fog at KCGI, or a few cu,
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220314 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1114 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO JIVE BETTER WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS
DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING
WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK
MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL
CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST
TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH 06Z...AS A STRATOCU
DECK GRADUALLY LOWERS FROM 5K FEET AGL DOWN TO THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL
RANGE. BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3K FEET AGL. THIS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WHERE THIS DECK MAY HANG IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 WILL
BE MORE ON THE FRINGES OF THE DECK...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE NNW TO THE NNE AT
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220035 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN WEAK RADAR RETURNS THIS EVENING SO HAVE REDUCED POPS
DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE EASTERN-MOST
COUNTIES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HAVE ALSO INCREASED SKY
COVER ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BASED ON RECENT IR IMAGERY. COINCIDING
WELL WITH WHAT IS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...MODELS SHOW GOOD LL
MOISTURE STICKING AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.

GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER...HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY WHERE THE COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE STRONGEST...BLACK
MOUNTAIN/S 00Z OB WAS 38 DEGREES. IN ADDITION...HAVE REMOVED ALL
CHANCES FOR FROST GIVEN CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S. IF CLOUD COVER IS PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND TEMPS STAY IN THE LOW 40S...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR FROST
TO FORM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 835 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH 06Z...AS A STRATOCU
DECK GRADUALLY LOWERS FROM 5K FEET AGL DOWN TO THE 3 TO 4K FEET AGL
RANGE. BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...EXPECT AN MVFR DECK TO DEVELOP...RANGING
FROM 1 TO 3K FEET AGL. THIS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WHERE THIS DECK MAY HANG IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. LOCATIONS NEAR AND WEST OF I-75 WILL
BE MORE ON THE FRINGES OF THE DECK...WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING
EARLIER IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL RANGE FROM THE NNW TO THE NNE AT
AROUND 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KLMK 212343
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
743 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated both Forecast and Aviation Discussions...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cloud cover will be the only challenge in the forecast for tonight
and Wednesday. Louisville is on the southwestern edge of a slowly
eroding strato-cu shield that extends all the way back through
Pennsylvania. Skies will slowly become partly cloudy overnight at
Louisville, with mostly clear skies expected at Bowling Green, and
with Lexington probably remaining mostly cloudy through Wednesday
morning.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

The western edge of an expansive area of strato-cu lies near
Louisville and will only erode to the northeast a little bit
overnight.

Clear skies tonight expected at BWG and mostly sunny skies are on
tap for Wednesday.

Mostly cloudy skies this evening at SDF will give way to partly
cloudy skies after midnight. Partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday.

For LEX, ceilings will be slowest to lift. Mostly cloudy skies for
tonight through early Wednesday are expected with ceilings remaining
above the MVFR threshold. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop at
LEX by late morning.

Northerly winds will continue tonight and Wednesday at around 5 to
8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 212336
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
636 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 636 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

With surface high pressure entrenched over the region, light
northeast winds and clear skies will be the rule throughout the
00Z TAF period. The exceptions are a few cu that may flirt with
KEVV and KOWB later this evening, as well as the usual late night
fog potential at KCGI, if winds can die off enough there.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

The western edge of an expansive area of strato-cu lies near
Louisville and will only erode to the northeast a little bit
overnight.

Clear skies tonight expected at BWG and mostly sunny skies are on
tap for Wednesday.

Mostly cloudy skies this evening at SDF will give way to partly
cloudy skies after midnight. Partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday.

For LEX, ceilings will be slowest to lift. Mostly cloudy skies for
tonight through early Wednesday are expected with ceilings remaining
above the MVFR threshold. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop at
LEX by late morning.

Northerly winds will continue tonight and Wednesday at around 5 to
8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 212308
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
708 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 700 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

The western edge of an expansive area of strato-cu lies near
Louisville and will only erode to the northeast a little bit
overnight.

Clear skies tonight expected at BWG and mostly sunny skies are on
tap for Wednesday.

Mostly cloudy skies this evening at SDF will give way to partly
cloudy skies after midnight. Partly cloudy skies expected Wednesday.

For LEX, ceilings will be slowest to lift. Mostly cloudy skies for
tonight through early Wednesday are expected with ceilings remaining
above the MVFR threshold. Partly cloudy skies will likely develop at
LEX by late morning.

Northerly winds will continue tonight and Wednesday at around 5 to
8kt.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211929
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
329 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Frost potential increasing for Wednesday Night...

Latest water vapor imagery overlaid with 500 mb heights shows
cyclonic flow with deep upper level trough across the eastern CONUS.
Altostratus deck exists across much of IN and central into eastern
KY thanks to cooler air aloft steepening lower level lapse rates. As
surface heating wanes later this afternoon, the periphery of this
cloud deck, which is more cellular, is expected to dissipate as main
upper level cyclonic flow shifts to the east.

At the surface, high pressure centered across Wisconsin will begin
to slowly shift southeastward toward the area tonight, which is
expected to keep the western forecast area mostly clear. However,
clouds will be slow to erode across the eastern areas thanks to the
influence from the upper level trough. Plan on seasonably cool
temperatures tonight with lows ranging across the area from the
upper 30s to lower 40s.

For Wednesday, look for pleasant but seasonably cool October
conditions as high pressure centers itself across the Ohio River
valley. Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected with highs ranging
from the upper 50s in the east to lower 60s across the southwest
forecast area. Winds will be light and out of the north.

Wednesday night into Thursday looks to be the coolest night of the
entire forecast period as the surface high will be positioned over
the forecast area. This will provide ideal radiational cooling
conditions and Thursday morning lows are expected to dip into the
lower to middle 30s. With light winds and the seasonably cool
airmass in place, patchy to areas of frost look likely. The favored
areas appear to be the eastern forecast area where temperatures may
approach the freezing mark. Otherwise, lows look to vary from the
lower to middle 30s. Frost advisories may be needed for Wednesday
night into Thursday morning across portions of the forecast area if
confidence continues to increase.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

After a chilly start to the day temperatures will remain on the cool
side Thursday, topping out in the lower 60s despite quite a bit of
sunshine. For Thursday night into Friday a shortwave will drop
southeast through the northwesterly flow aloft. Precipitation with
this system will be weakening as it approaches the area. However,
most of the models now show at least a slight chance for showers
across southern IN and north central KY Thursday night so will
increase pops to around 20% in this area. The strength of the
shortwave varies from model to model and if it does trend towards
the stronger side, a chance for light showers may eventually need to
be added for Friday as well.

Beyond Friday, upper level ridging will be building in across the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will bring
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with warming temperatures
through Monday. Highs Friday will be in the lower to mid 60s while
Monday`s highs look to be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows will
increase from the lower to mid 40s Friday morning to the lower to
mid 50s Tuesday morning. The next chance for rain will come Tuesday
into Tuesday night as a front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Latest visible satellite shows large expanse of altostratus with
bases in the 4 to 5 kft range with cyclonic flow at the surface and
aloft. For SDF, plan on VFR conditions throughout the period with
cloud deck dissipating later this evening. LEX will remain closer to
stronger cyclonic flow and likely to remain within stratus deck
through the night. Forecast guidance suggests a possibility of
broken ceilings lowering to MVFR but confidence was not high enough
at this time to include. At BWG, trended previous forecast of IFR
fog to MVFR as guidance suggests winds may remain high enough to
preclude fog development. Cooler and drier air thanks to northerly
flow on Wednesday from late morning into the afternoon is expected
to keep skies clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZBT
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZBT






000
FXUS63 KJKL 211922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FAIRLY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD...THUS
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS A QUICK
SUMMARY...LOOKS LIKE THIS FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL...THAN
ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE PERIOD WILL START AS A STRONG RIDGE SLOWLY PUSHES ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PROVIDING PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS BY SATURDAY WILL CLIMB BACK TO AROUND 60. A FAST
MOVING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH AND SHARPNESS OF
THE TROUGH WITH THE ECMWF CONTINUING TO BE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
ITS COUNTERPARTS. FOR NOW...OPTING TO STAY WITH THE DRY FORECAST AND
WAIT FOR SOME BETTER AGREEMENT. MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED...SO ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD BE MORE IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES. THIS WAVE MAY
PRODUCE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. HOWEVER...AS THE WAVE
EXITS THIS WEEKEND...STRONG RIDGING WILL START ITS MARCH INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY NEXT MONDAY WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AND MAYBE EVEN CLOSE TO 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY. THE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE LOWER AT NIGHT AND HIGHER DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO THE FORECAST CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TODAY. THINKING WAS THE LOZ AND SME WOULD SEE THE MOST
CLEARING AND BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG AND MVFR. JKL AND SJS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AND MVFR CIGS AS THEY
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EXPECT VFR AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KPAH 211907
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
207 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will dominate the weather for the
next 36 to 48 hours, through Wednesday night. Main forecast
challenge will be determining frost potential late at night...esp
Wednesday night, when the ridge should be closest. Will go with
patch frost for now to get the ball rolling, but there may be a
need for an advisory in later forecast, esp east of the MS River.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures can be expected Friday
behind a weak upper level trof. Models continue to show an upper
level ridge building north across the Rockies and Plains states and
slowly sliding east through the weekend.  The region will see plenty
of sunshine with both highs and lows 4 to 10 degrees above normal.

The upper ridge will move east of the PAH forecast area Monday.
Models show a surface low over the Central Plains Monday, moving
northeast into the Great Lakes region by 12z Tuesday. The 00z ECMWF
was draping and hanging up the associated cold front across our
region Tuesday into mid week and generating almost no QPF.  However,
the 12z ECMWF now matches up well with the latest GFS, which takes
the front across the PAH fa pretty quickly late Monday night and
Tuesday and generates fairly widespread and more significant QPF.
Went with some slight chance pops for our west/northwest counties
Monday night, and across the entire PAH fa for Tuesday.  Held back
on more significant pops until models show more consistent timing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy fog may form again very late tonight...primarily at
kcgi. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail as high pressure
presses south from Canada.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VARIABLE CLOUDINESS AND
GENERALLY COOL AND DAMP WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES AT TIMES. STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE PATCHY FROST IN SOME OF THE ISOLATED
VALLEYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF A LINE FROM FLEMING TO
BELL COUNTY. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE CLOUDS
AND THE WINDS. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT AT ALL...THEN THE FROST
IS VERY UNLIKELY. ALSO...THE WINDS NEED TO DIE DOWN. THERE IS SOME
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE EXTENT OF THE CLOUDINESS OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THE AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
IS OVER LAKE EIRE. A SURFACE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. IT HAS NOT AMOUNTED TO MUCH MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT AND CLOUDS.
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
AND THEN WEST VIRGINA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA GENERALLY CLOUDY. THE
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE LOWER AT NIGHT AND HIGHER DURING THE DAY.
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL
TEND TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE...SO THE FORECAST CERTAINTY IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE TODAY. THINKING WAS THE LOZ AND SME WOULD SEE THE MOST
CLEARING AND BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SOME FOG AND MVFR. JKL AND SJS
WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES AND MVFR CIGS AS THEY
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW CENTER. EXPECT VFR AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211740
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
140 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Removed morning rain shower chances.  Still believe there may be a
brief window of opportunity for sprinkles over southeast Indiana and
the northern Bluegrass region during the afternoon hours, but not
expecting any location to receive more that a trace of precip so
removed 20% POP.  According to the latest short range model guidance
and satellite trends, low clouds should continue to sink south into
our region throughout the day providing for a mostly cloudy day over
most areas.  The only exception may be in the Bowling Green area
which will be on the edge of the stratus deck.  Right now think BWG
will stay mostly sunny but some low clouds could work into area.
Updated the temp forecast to reflect the changes in cloud cover
going colder over most of the forecast region.  Highs should end up
in the mid 50 to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 PM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Latest visible satellite shows large expanse of altostratus and
bases in the 4 to 5 kft range with cyclonic flow at the surface
and aloft. For SDF, plan on VFR conditions throughout the period
with cloud deck dissipating later this evening. LEX will remain
closer to stronger cyclonic flow and likely to remain within
stratus deck through the night. Forecast guidance suggests a
possibility of broken ceilings lowering to MVFR but confidence was
not high enough at this time to include. At BWG, trended previous
forecast of IFR fog to MVFR as guidance suggests winds may remain
high enough to preclude fog development. Cooler and drier air
thanks to northerly flow on Wednesday from late morning into the
afternoon is expected to keep skies clear.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......ZBT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211410
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Removed morning rain shower chances.  Still believe there may be a
brief window of opportunity for sprinkles over southeast Indiana and
the northern Bluegrass region during the afternoon hours, but not
expecting any location to receive more that a trace of precip so
removed 20% POP.  According to the latest short range model guidance
and satellite trends, low clouds should continue to sink south into
our region throughout the day providing for a mostly cloudy day over
most areas.  The only exception may be in the Bowling Green area
which will be on the edge of the stratus deck.  Right now think BWG
will stay mostly sunny but some low clouds could work into area.
Updated the temp forecast to reflect the changes in cloud cover
going colder over most of the forecast region.  Highs should end up
in the mid 50 to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211410
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1010 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1005 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Removed morning rain shower chances.  Still believe there may be a
brief window of opportunity for sprinkles over southeast Indiana and
the northern Bluegrass region during the afternoon hours, but not
expecting any location to receive more that a trace of precip so
removed 20% POP.  According to the latest short range model guidance
and satellite trends, low clouds should continue to sink south into
our region throughout the day providing for a mostly cloudy day over
most areas.  The only exception may be in the Bowling Green area
which will be on the edge of the stratus deck.  Right now think BWG
will stay mostly sunny but some low clouds could work into area.
Updated the temp forecast to reflect the changes in cloud cover
going colder over most of the forecast region.  Highs should end up
in the mid 50 to mid 60s this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 211138
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy ground fog at kcgi will burn off shortly after sunrise.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will form by midday and then
dissipate by sunset. Some patchy fog may form again very late
tonight...primarily at kcgi. Winds will be north 5 to 10 knots
today...then nearly calm tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KPAH 211138
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy ground fog at kcgi will burn off shortly after sunrise.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will form by midday and then
dissipate by sunset. Some patchy fog may form again very late
tonight...primarily at kcgi. Winds will be north 5 to 10 knots
today...then nearly calm tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW









000
FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211054
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front slowly making its way SE across Kentucky is quite
difficult to pick out in the surface obs. Strato-cu deck ihas pushed
into LEX and will soon get into SDF, but higher than previously
advertised and will stay solidly VFR. Main challenge this morning
will be how long the fog stays in BWG.

Even high-resolution guidance has struggled to catch on to the fog
at BWG. Will fall back on a bit of climo in keeping restrictions to
vis through 14-15Z, but will be a last-minute call as to just how
poor visibility will be. First guess would be prevailing IFR/MVFR
with TEMPO for vis dropping to field mins.

Once the fog dissipates at BWG expect VFR through the day, but will
keep a strato-cu ceiling in SDF and LEX. Winds will be NNW behind
the front, but the cold advection push is weak enough that speeds
will hold just under 10 kt. Skies will clear and winds will decouple
after sunset. Cooler and drier air will continue to filter in, but
drying will be just slow enough that we will keep a TEMPO for IFR
visibility at BWG toward daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 210830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210830
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 210823
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KLMK 210712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210712
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Cold front is progressing slowly through the Ohio Valley overnight,
with surface winds still out of the WSW over nearly the entire state
of Kentucky. Decent strato-cu shield is evident over the northern
half of Indiana and much of Ohio as the low levels are modified by
Lake Michigan.

As the day progresses, the front will push SE across the region, and
deep NNW flow will develop. Most of the column will be quite dry,
but the fetch off of Lake Michigan will draw a shallow ribbon of
moisture into southeastern Indiana and the Bluegrass region of
Kentucky. Will include a brief window late this morning for a
shallow light shower or two to develop, but both coverage and QPF
will be minimal. Clouds and cold advection will really hold temps
back, and we can expect a decent range from NE to SW. Most of the
Bluegrass region will struggle to crack 60, while south central KY
will be up to 10 degrees warmer.

Expect clearing skies tonight and plenty of sunshine on Wednesday as
the surface ridge builds from the NW while the upper ridge builds
from the SW. Light north winds overnight will keep temps from
bottoming out, so will favor the slightly milder NAM MOS for lows
tonight. Wednesday will run even cooler with the shallow cold air
mass tightening its hold, with upper 50s across the board.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

In contrast to the last few days of multiple frontal passages, the
long term pattern will settle down, with little if any rain chances
and temperatures starting off near normal then steadily rising. The
GFS does have a weak front passing us Thursday night and Friday. As
with the last few systems, models fade precip chances away before
getting here, but wonder if we will be able to squeeze out a
hundredth of an inch in a few spots. The latest SREF hints at this
chances, and will trend up just a little in pops, but stay under 20
percent. That front will slow the rise in temps for one day, but
Saturday and Sunday ridging will build into the region. On Monday
southerly winds will pick up ahead of a cold front across the
Central Plains. This front will hold off getting in here until just
beyond this forecast period.

The only other thing to mention in this forecast is the chance for
frost Thursday morning. Most of the model guidance places the center
of a surface high near our region by daybreak.  Forecast lows should
be in the 30s areawide, with our Bluegrass counties at least
dropping into the mid 30s. Thus expect at least areas of frost there
with patchy frost farther west. Would not be surprised to see the
next couple of forecasts come in a little cooler, with a frost
advisory possible for portions of our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 115 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210619
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 218 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL GUIDANCE TO MAKE SURE THE WINDS
AND TEMPS WERE WELL REFLECTED IN THE ONGOING FORECAST. A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT/S WAY ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTION
OF THE CWA. WHILE THE ONGOING FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS TRANSITION...DID MAKE A SMALL UPDATE TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF ONE SHOWER WHICH HAS PRODUCED
SEVERAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE COLD
FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA...MAKING IT/S WAY EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION...WITH A AREA OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA FOLLOWING THIS FLOW OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
144 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
144 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 140 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Weak cold front is slow to progress past the Ohio River, but will
gradually push south across Kentucky overnight. Light SW winds will
veer to NW or even N by daybreak. Main source of uncertainty is how
far south the strato-cu deck over Indiana and Ohio can build. At
this point expect it to build into SDF and LEX, but BWG will remain
mostly clear. Kept the ceilings VFR, but just barely so at LEX. Even
if LEX does go MVFR expect it to stay above fuel-alternate
thresholds.

High pressure builds from the north during the daytime on Tuesday,
but without a strong push will keep wind speeds just under 10 kt.
VFR strato-cu ceiling will persist at SDF and LEX, but could scatter
out later in the afternoon. Light north winds and clearing skies
expected in the evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 210449
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1149 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front has turned light winds to the northwest this
evening. A secondary wind shift is working southward and may veer
winds to due north and spread some scattered 6kft clouds over KEVV
and eventually KOWB by daybreak. Guidance is less bullish for fog
at KCGI, but winds are likely to go calm and the dewpoint is
holding close to 50, so will leave the fog forecast alone there. No
fog expected elsewhere. North winds will increase a bit with
mixing Tuesday, and there will be a pretty thick cu field,
especially east of the Mississippi. A periodic lower VFR ceiling
will be possible.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210335 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS PICKED UP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ON RADAR...WITH
EVEN SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES FROM TIME TO TIME. A DECENT CLUSTER IS
HEADING INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND HAVE BEEFED UP POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CLUSTER...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT
HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA...WHERE IT IS A BIT MORE STABLE.
CLEARING HAS ALSO BEEN MORE PROLIFIC THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG AND A QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES...SOME OF WHICH
HAVE DIPPED BELOW THE FORECAST LOWS. HAVE DROPPED THE LOWS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE COOLER READINGS. THESE SHOULD REBOUND AS THICKER CLOUDS MOVE
IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...SO HAVE BLENDED THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO SOME OF THE MODEL DATA WHICH CAPTURES THIS
BEST. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM/GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KLMK 210058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210058
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
858 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 840 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

Isolated showers have developed along a weak frontal boundary moving
south along the Ohio River. The most concentrated area of rain is
actually right over Louisville, soon to move into Shelby and Spencer
counties. Currently, only some light sprinkles are apparent over the
Bluegrass and west central Kentucky. Showers will move southeast of
Louisville well before nine thirty this evening. For the rest of
this evening, southern Indiana will stay dry with isolated showers
continuing across central Kentucky and eventually, the southern
Bluegrass if these showers currently exiting Louisville hold
together.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210019 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210019 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH 03Z. ALSO
HAVE ALLOWED FOR A LONGER LULL IN PRECIP BETWEEN THE PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS WHICH HAVE NOW MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIP NOW MOVING INTO WESTERN KY BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
TONIGHT... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AN UPPER LOW
WILL STAY NEAR THE AREA KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. THE FRONT UPSTREAM...IS LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGEST
PORTION WILL MISS THE AREA. JUST KEPT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST FROM NOW. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT...HOWEVER BY NEAR DAWN ON WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
PATCHY FROST AGAIN IN THE VALLEYS. STAYED VERY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
MODELS FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 819 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS
WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD ON THROUGH AROUND 06Z...BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER INTO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORY FROM 06 TO 12Z. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH LOW CEILINGS
LIKELY HANGING AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN









000
FXUS63 KPAH 202342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front is attempting to push through the TAF sites
early this evening. Would not rule out a stray light shower at
KOWB until the front passes there in the next 2 hours. Behind the
front, skies will be clear with light north northwest winds. Winds
may die off enough at KCGI for some shallow fog development there
overnight. North winds will pick up a bit with mixing Tuesday
afternoon, but gusts should be very limited. A decent cu field
will develop by afternoon. It should be thickest at KEVV and KOWB,
where a ceiling condition is not out of the question. It appears
that the solid ~6kft clouds near Lake Michigan will pass to the
north and east, so will not forecast ceilings at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 202342
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
642 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Seasonably chilly high pressure will take over for this time
period. With nearly clear conditions expected, the dry air will
likely warm to the warmer end of the forecast model envelope. Night
times may be a little cooler than guidance tho. Could actually be
some light frost by the mid week time frame in normally colder
locations.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Models show an upper level ridge over the region will gradually
break down Thursday. This will allow a weak trof to move across the
middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys Thursday night into
Friday.  Latest ECMWF produces a smattering of minimal QPF in our
area, but the previous ECMWF along with the latest GFS and GEM keep
our region dry.  Dry weather will continue into the weekend as huge
ridge of high pressure builds over a majority of the U.S.  The ridge
will gradually slide east of our area by early next week, but the
dry conditions should persist into Monday.

Winds will shift to the south Thursday, and temperatures will
gradually warm into the weekend.  Slightly below to near seasonal
readings can be expected Thursday and Friday, then temperatures will
level off a few degrees above normal for the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A weak cold front is attempting to push through the TAF sites
early this evening. Would not rule out a stray light shower at
KOWB until the front passes there in the next 2 hours. Behind the
front, skies will be clear with light north northwest winds. Winds
may die off enough at KCGI for some shallow fog development there
overnight. North winds will pick up a bit with mixing Tuesday
afternoon, but gusts should be very limited. A decent cu field
will develop by afternoon. It should be thickest at KEVV and KOWB,
where a ceiling condition is not out of the question. It appears
that the solid ~6kft clouds near Lake Michigan will pass to the
north and east, so will not forecast ceilings at this time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 202313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 202313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
713 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

An upper level trough will deepen across the northeastern CONUS
through the long term, eventually becoming a cutoff low. A cold
front associated with this system will move through the area
tonight. In addition, a couple of PV anomalies rotating around the
base of the trough will bring slight chances for light showers.

The first chance for showers will be late this afternoon into this
evening. Mesoscale models, which have been doing well the past
couple of days, suggest a broken line of showers will develop along
or near the river this evening and shift off to the southeast,
moving out of the forecast area by around 03-04Z. Showers should be
light and measurable precipitation low, so will keep only 20%
chances in the grids. The next disturbance tomorrow morning will
affect mainly southern IN and north central KY. Again, will keep
only a 20% chance in the forecast. Dry conditions are expected from
tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid 40s to lower 50s. Cold
air advection will keep temperatures on the cooler side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected. Tuesday morning
will see cooler temps with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 305 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A departing upper low and sfc high pressure will keep us cool and
dry for the middle of this week.  Expect high temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s Wed/Thurs.  Thurs morning looks to be the coolest with
sfc ridging and a light NE flow pulling in cooler air from the
departing low.  Lows look to range from the mid 30s to around 40
with frost possible.  Friday lows will be a tad warmer ranging from
the mid/upper 30s east of I-65 to lower 40s west of I-65.  Expect
increased cloudiness as an upper trough passes through the region
Friday.

Ridging aloft will move in from the Plains this weekend with another
area of sfc high pressure.  This will keep conditions dry with a
warm up in temps through the beginning of next week.  With h85 temps
rebounding back into the 10-14 degree C range, sfc highs should be
in mid 60s to low 70s Fri/Sat and then solidly into the lower 70s
for Sun/Mon.  Night time lows will jump back into the mid 40s to
lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 705 PM EDT Mon Oct 20 2014

A weak cold front will move south of the Ohio River around 9 pm EDT.
Ahead of this boundary, southwest winds will be diminishing towards
5kt before they switch to the northwest at around 5 to 7kt towards
midnight. By Tuesday afternoon, expect north northwest winds around
7 to 9kt.

A few sprinkles may develop late this evening as this boundary moves
through. However any one of them will not affect ceilings or
visibilities at any terminal.

Broken strato-cu will build back in, particularly at LEX and SDF
during the early morning hours, with variably cloudy skies expected
Tuesday. However any broken ceilings will remain above 3k feet,
giving VFR ceilings.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........JSD





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