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000
FXUS63 KLMK 280241
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Light snow showers have diminished to mainly flurries across the
area.  The back edge of the low clouds was located over southwest
Indiana and west central KY this evening and making slow progress
eastward this evening.  Have delayed taking cloud cover down to
partly cloudy by about 2-4 hrs overnight.  Also, even though the low
clouds will exit the region for a time tonight, a mid deck will move
in with an upper level disturbance passing to our north.  Expect
flurry activity to slowly wind down from west to east overnight as
the low clouds move east of the area.  Low temps in the upper teens
to lower 20s still look on track.

Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to increase snow shower chances to 30% mainly
west of I-65 across southern IN and portions of west central KY
where radar returns have been quite persistent over the last hour or
so.  These light snow showers will create only a dusting of
accumulation at best, but that may be enough to create a few slick
spots especially with temps in the mid and upper 20s this evening.
Therefore will issue an SPS highlighting this threat especially with
holiday travelers out and about.

Issued at 440 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to add scattered flurries through the evening
hours.  Regional radar showed a batch of flurries over southwest
Indiana headed ESE into our region.  Also, there was another batch
of flurries near Cincinnati and into the northern Bluegrass.  Thus,
added the flurry mention through 2z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR cigs and a few snow flurries will impact the TAF sites this
evening through around 4z.  The flurries are too few and far between
to mention in the TAF but MVFR cigs should hold until sfc high
pressure scours out the low clouds later this evening.  VFR
conditions are expected after 4Z with winds becoming light and
variable or calm.  Mid level clouds will arrive closer to sunrise
courtesy of an upper level disturbance passing well to our north.
Winds will become predominantly southerly for tomorrow in return
flow with afternoon wind speeds in the 6-10 kt range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS





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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR AND OBS CONTINUED TO SHOW REPORTS OF ISL
TO SCT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SUPPORT CLOUDS
POSSIBLY STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL UPDATE IF
NECESSARY. IF CLOUDS DO STICK AROUND LONGER...SO TOO COULD THE
FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

AS A  WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS KENTUCKY. TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO...AS
A RESULT OF THESE CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED AREAS OF
SNOW FLURRIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW UP ON RADAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
THESE FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL SKIES FINALLY BEGIN CLEARING
OUT LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW IN TAFS AS THEY
SHOULD POSE NO AVIATIONAL CONCERN...AND MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL AT
KSME AND KLOZ. WINDS WILL SHIFT BETWEEN SW AND NW THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 5KTS
OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR AND OBS CONTINUED TO SHOW REPORTS OF ISL
TO SCT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SUPPORT CLOUDS
POSSIBLY STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL UPDATE IF
NECESSARY. IF CLOUDS DO STICK AROUND LONGER...SO TOO COULD THE
FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

AS A  WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS KENTUCKY. TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO...AS
A RESULT OF THESE CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED AREAS OF
SNOW FLURRIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW UP ON RADAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
THESE FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL SKIES FINALLY BEGIN CLEARING
OUT LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW IN TAFS AS THEY
SHOULD POSE NO AVIATIONAL CONCERN...AND MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL AT
KSME AND KLOZ. WINDS WILL SHIFT BETWEEN SW AND NW THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 5KTS
OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR AND OBS CONTINUED TO SHOW REPORTS OF ISL
TO SCT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SUPPORT CLOUDS
POSSIBLY STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL UPDATE IF
NECESSARY. IF CLOUDS DO STICK AROUND LONGER...SO TOO COULD THE
FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

AS A  WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS KENTUCKY. TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO...AS
A RESULT OF THESE CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED AREAS OF
SNOW FLURRIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW UP ON RADAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
THESE FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL SKIES FINALLY BEGIN CLEARING
OUT LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW IN TAFS AS THEY
SHOULD POSE NO AVIATIONAL CONCERN...AND MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL AT
KSME AND KLOZ. WINDS WILL SHIFT BETWEEN SW AND NW THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 5KTS
OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 280024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
724 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 708 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...RADAR AND OBS CONTINUED TO SHOW REPORTS OF ISL
TO SCT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND
INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING...TAPERING OFF AS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY...BOTH THE LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...SUPPORT CLOUDS
POSSIBLY STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN WAS ORIGINALLY PREDICTED. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND WILL UPDATE IF
NECESSARY. IF CLOUDS DO STICK AROUND LONGER...SO TOO COULD THE
FLURRIES. OTHERWISE...LOADING IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SEEMS
TO BE WELL ON TRACK WITH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 723 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

AS A  WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN PERSISTENT ACROSS KENTUCKY. TAF SITES
SHOULD GENERALLY STAY AT OR ABOVE VFR CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. ALSO...AS
A RESULT OF THESE CLOUDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES...ISOLATED AREAS OF
SNOW FLURRIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW UP ON RADAR THROUGH THE EVENING.
THESE FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST UNTIL SKIES FINALLY BEGIN CLEARING
OUT LATE TONIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF SNOW IN TAFS AS THEY
SHOULD POSE NO AVIATIONAL CONCERN...AND MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL AT
KSME AND KLOZ. WINDS WILL SHIFT BETWEEN SW AND NW THROUGHOUT THE
COURSE OF THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES OVER...BUT SHOULD REMAIN 5KTS
OR LESS. CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK IN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...BUT WILL
REMAIN VFR.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272331
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
631 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to increase snow shower chances to 30% mainly
west of I-65 across southern IN and portions of west central KY
where radar returns have been quite persistent over the last hour or
so.  These light snow showers will create only a dusting of
accumulation at best, but that may be enough to create a few slick
spots especially with temps in the mid and upper 20s this evening.
Therefore will issue an SPS highlighting this threat especially with
holiday travelers out and about.

Issued at 440 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to add scattered flurries through the evening
hours.  Regional radar showed a batch of flurries over southwest
Indiana headed ESE into our region.  Also, there was another batch
of flurries near Cincinnati and into the northern Bluegrass.  Thus,
added the flurry mention through 2z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 630 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

MVFR cigs and a few snow flurries will impact the TAF sites this
evening through around 4z.  The flurries are too few and far between
to mention in the TAF but MVFR cigs should hold until sfc high
pressure scours out the low clouds later this evening.  VFR
conditions are expected after 4Z with winds becoming light and
variable or calm.  Mid level clouds will arrive closer to sunrise
courtesy of an upper level disturbance passing well to our north.
Winds will become predominantly southerly for tomorrow in return
flow with afternoon wind speeds in the 6-10 kt range.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS




  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 272320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Clearing has taken place at KCGI/KPAH and it might be another hour
or two before we get rid of the clouds in our eastern TAF sites. A
band of mid level clouds will stream overhead tonight as weak warm
advection develops on the back side of departing high pressure.
This will pave the way for VFR conditions and more sunshine on
Friday. Northwest winds this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight as the high moves through. Winds will become
southerly on the back side of the high Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 272320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Clearing has taken place at KCGI/KPAH and it might be another hour
or two before we get rid of the clouds in our eastern TAF sites. A
band of mid level clouds will stream overhead tonight as weak warm
advection develops on the back side of departing high pressure.
This will pave the way for VFR conditions and more sunshine on
Friday. Northwest winds this afternoon will become light and
variable tonight as the high moves through. Winds will become
southerly on the back side of the high Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KLMK 272304
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to increase snow shower chances to 30% mainly
west of I-65 across southern IN and portions of west central KY
where radar returns have been quite persistent over the last hour or
so.  These light snow showers will create only a dusting of
accumulation at best, but that may be enough to create a few slick
spots especially with temps in the mid and upper 20s this evening.
Therefore will issue an SPS highlighting this threat especially with
holiday travelers out and about.

Issued at 440 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to add scattered flurries through the evening
hours.  Regional radar showed a batch of flurries over southwest
Indiana headed ESE into our region.  Also, there was another batch
of flurries near Cincinnati and into the northern Bluegrass.  Thus,
added the flurry mention through 2z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 272304
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
604 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 600 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to increase snow shower chances to 30% mainly
west of I-65 across southern IN and portions of west central KY
where radar returns have been quite persistent over the last hour or
so.  These light snow showers will create only a dusting of
accumulation at best, but that may be enough to create a few slick
spots especially with temps in the mid and upper 20s this evening.
Therefore will issue an SPS highlighting this threat especially with
holiday travelers out and about.

Issued at 440 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to add scattered flurries through the evening
hours.  Regional radar showed a batch of flurries over southwest
Indiana headed ESE into our region.  Also, there was another batch
of flurries near Cincinnati and into the northern Bluegrass.  Thus,
added the flurry mention through 2z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 272150
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
450 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 440 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to add scattered flurries through the evening
hours.  Regional radar showed a batch of flurries over southwest
Indiana headed ESE into our region.  Also, there was another batch
of flurries near Cincinnati and into the northern Bluegrass.  Thus,
added the flurry mention through 2z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 272150
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
450 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 440 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Updated the forecast to add scattered flurries through the evening
hours.  Regional radar showed a batch of flurries over southwest
Indiana headed ESE into our region.  Also, there was another batch
of flurries near Cincinnati and into the northern Bluegrass.  Thus,
added the flurry mention through 2z.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 272052
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
252 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
short term, thus confidence is higher than average through
Saturday night.

Clouds have been in abundance this Thanksgiving Day, with the
exception of a few breaks here and there. Visible satellite shows
the back edge of the sky cover near the Mississippi River as of
mid afternoon. Forecast models indicate this clearing trend should
continue to progress eastward across the remainder of the region
through the late afternoon and early evening. As high pressure
moves in and winds subside, temperatures should quickly drop well
into the 20s tonight. Some mid level clouds are forecast to stream
through later in the night, but this should have little impact on
temperatures.

Friday will be warmer than today (but still cold) with much more
sunshine expected. Look for afternoon highs in the mid to upper
40s. A substantial modification in temperatures will occur over
the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and low level
southerly winds increase. Unfortunately, the weekend looks to be
shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening of
the atmosphere below 850 mb late Friday night and early Saturday
morning. With the abundant low level moisture and weak isentropic
lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will be possible by
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. The period will also be
characterized by a non-diurnal temperature trend as temperatures
stage a slow warming trend from late Friday evening into Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Forecast confidence fairly good through Wednesday, but beyond that
not good through the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a
number of precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them
being of the liquid variety except for Monday morning. Details to
follow.

With the approach of a cold frontal boundary, precipitation chances
increase slightly on Sunday. Location of the boundary by 6 PM Sunday
afternoon still slightly different with the GFS being a tad faster,
but the end result should be similar POP-wise.

With the passage of the front, Sunday night into Monday morning both
the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of precipitation along
and behind the front, but due to placement differences of the
boundary, the QPF placement differs as well. As the colder air
filters in behind the front, late Sunday night/early Monday morning
precipitation may fall as freezing rain over the far western and
northwestern sections of our CWA where temperatures may briefly drop
to freezing. With there being some uncertainty with temperatures,
just went with a mix of rain/freezing rain there. Any ice
accumulations are expected to be minor at best. 1000-850MB critical
thicknesses would indicate more of a snow/sleet scenario, but after
looking at a number of Bufkit and AWIPS soundings, don`t see enough
moisture in the ice nucleation layer for snow or sleet. As
temperatures warm slightly Monday afternoon, expect precipitation to
be all liquid.

Precipitation chances may linger Monday evening over the southeast
sections of our CWA, but beyond that through midday Tuesday the
region should remain dry. The development of a wave on the
aforementioned frontal boundary to our south may produce minor
overrunning precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening, so have
schc POPS there.

From this point through the end of the period models still at odds
with each other and couldn`t be more different. On Wednesday the
GFS, as a result of a developing system over the plains, brings the
front to our south back across the area as a warm front but with
limited moisture. With the approach of the plains system it then
paints small precipitation chances over the far western and
northwestern sections of the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday.
During the same time frame, the ECMWF pushes the frontal boundary
off to the southeast US and brings a huge area of high pressure over
the area with no sign of an upstream system. It`s going to be
interesting to see how this one pans out. Thanks to all of the
surrounding offices for their collaboration and input.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the afternoon, though
slow clearing is expected from west to east. Clearing will continue
into the evening, though there is some question as to how quickly
skies will clear at KEVV and KOWB. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the back
side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for VFR
conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Northwest winds this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight as the high moves
through. Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 272008
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 272008
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has set up over the Ohio Valley
as the departing Clipper gives way to a 1036mb Arctic high building
from the Upper Midwest. This setup has kept our weather cloudy and
somewhat raw, with unseasonably cool temps and modest NW breezes.
Surface obs over central Illinois and Indiana have shown light snow
off and on, but the precip on radar has diminished substantially
over the last couple hours.

Some hint of a weak disturbance in the NW flow aloft making its way
across Illinois, and this could be responsible for the snow in that
area. This feature is becoming more sheared out, so at this point
expecting even any flurries to remain to our north and east as it
scoots past this evening. Should be a window of clearing for much
the overnight period, allowing temps to get quite cold before a
mid-level deck works in around daybreak. Normally would lean toward
the warmer end of guidance, but since we are already starting off so
cold, will split the difference with lower/mid 20s in most
locations. Traditional cold spots will likely dip into the teens.

By midday Friday the ridge axis will already be retreating into
eastern Kentucky, but return flow looks quite weak. Mid-level
moisture and associated clouds will hold temps back as well,
especially across the Bluegrass region. Should see the most
substantial moderating trend over south-central Kentucky. Will open
a range from upper 30s in the Bluegrass to mid/upper 40s near
Bowling Green. Moderating trend continues Fri night as SSW return
flow keeps temps up. Will even see a slight non-diurnal trend with a
quick evening drop, then flatline or even rising temps after
midnight.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Saturday - Monday Night...

The Ohio Valley will be sandwiched between a surface high along the
Atlantic coast and low moving from the upper Midwest into eastern
Canada through the weekend. Meanwhile, flow will transition to
southwesterly aloft. The steady southerly flow will allow for milder
temperatures, and an initial shallow layer of moisture to pool into
the area Saturday, gradually increasing in depth through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front trailing from the northern surface
low will slowly work into the area. This will set the stage for
isolated to scattered chances of measurable rain Saturday through
Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. Will see
milder temperatures on Saturday in the low and mid 50s, with Sunday
into the 60s despite heavy cloud cover. Temperatures will be tricky
on Monday due to the timing of the slow frontal passage. Will
mention likely chances for measurable rain on Monday, where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch seems reasonable.

A strong surface high begins to push into the area Monday night,
shunting the front and associated deeper moisture south. Expecting
pretty cool overnight lows by dawn on Tuesday along and north of
I-64, however will continue to leave frozen precipitation off the
table as deep moisture is expected to be gone by the time colder air
arrives.

Tuesday - Thursday...

Low confidence for this portion of the forecast as models continue
to diverge greatly on the upper air pattern through mid week. Do
want to keep the forecast trended toward a drier solution until more
confidence can be gained. That being said, still need to keep some
mention Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly across our east where
lingering low level moisture will be most prevalent and may
interact with a developing central CONUS trough.

Temperatures for Wednesday/Thursday are also low confidence as we
will either be dealing with a warm sector and steady southerly flow
beneath an upper ridge, or under the influence of troughing and a
polar high. Its going to be one or the other, with one solution mild
and the other quite cold. Prefer to lean toward the warmer solution
at this time as it has support from its ensemble mean, its parallel
run, and the NAEFS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 272006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 272006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 272006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 272006
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
306 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FEATURE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
NOW PUSHING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN RANGE. THIS FRONT HAS
BROUGHT SOME COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. UPSTREAM...ANOTHER COLD FRONT AIMS TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA. A MUCH DRIER FRONT LOOKS TO BE ON TAP WITH THIS ONE.
THOUGH...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL BE
WITH THIS FRONT. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BUT
WILL BE FAR FROM ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION TO THIS...THE
COLDER AIR FILTERING IN HAS RESULTED IN FALL TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY AND HAVE TWEAKED DOWN THE HOURLY TEMPS. IN FACT...THE MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY IN MANY LOCATIONS OCCURRED AROUND 11AM THIS MORNING AND AS
OF NOON...HOURLY TEMPS HAVE STEADILY DROPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT DRIER AIR FILTERING IN AND A VERY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER WILL
BRING AN END TO THE FLURRY ACTIVITY. THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL STILL BE
AROUND AND SLOW TO DISSIPATE...BANKED UP AGAINST THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE IN NORTHWEST FLOW BECAUSE OF THIS...LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 20S. IF THERE HAPPENS TO BE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT...AND THIS MAY BE IN THE NORTHWEST OR WEST...LOW TEMPS
WILL RAPIDLY PLUMMET INTO THE TEENS...POSSIBLY MIDDLE TEENS
ESPECIALLY WITH DEW POINTS TONIGHT AT MANY PLACES FORECASTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS.

THIS AIR MASS WILL MODIFY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SWINGS AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA. WITH
THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
LOWER 40S...THOUGH THIS IS STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS...CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WILL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CLOUD COVER APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH TO LESSEN
THE RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN PRETTY SIGNIFICANT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW TEMPS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE A DRY ONE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF DECEMBER. AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT ON RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS WITH MID LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT WE WILL SEE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
GENERATE CLOUDS...AND MOST MODELS REMAIN INSISTENT AT GENERATING
LIGHT QPF ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING
TO SHOW THE MOISTURE REMAINING SHALLOW. SOME VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
WILL BE NEEDED FOR VERY LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AND WEST PART OF THE AREA...BUT NON MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES MAY BE THE MOST ANYONE SEES.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...AND BY LATE
IN THE WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF OFFER COMPLETELY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
FLOW REMAINS NEARLY ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE
SURFACE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT WILL WORK
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM WPC SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA AS WELL. AS A RESULT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY...BUT WITH
BASICALLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THERE WILL
NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE MEAN FLOW AT
MID WEEK AND BEYOND IS IN DOUBT AS GFS PERSISTS WITH A PRIMARILY
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES...WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS AN EASTERN NORTH AMERICAN TROUGH AND A WESTERN RIDGE BY
THURSDAY. CORRESPONDING 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND MOS GUIDANCE ARE IN
STARK CONTRAST WITH THE GFS WARMER AND THE ECMWF COOLER. THE
SUPERBLEND ACCOUNTS FOR SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE FORECAST FOR DAY 6 AND 7 HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AND
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE A BIT WARMER OR QUITE A BIT COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO REALLY WIND DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE FALLING TEMPS RATHER THAN
WARMING TEMPS AS WE HAVE REACH OUR MAX TEMPS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR WORKING IN HAVE CAUSED
TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT BUT A
NEW ZFP WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO REALLY WIND DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE FALLING TEMPS RATHER THAN
WARMING TEMPS AS WE HAVE REACH OUR MAX TEMPS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR WORKING IN HAVE CAUSED
TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT BUT A
NEW ZFP WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO REALLY WIND DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE FALLING TEMPS RATHER THAN
WARMING TEMPS AS WE HAVE REACH OUR MAX TEMPS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR WORKING IN HAVE CAUSED
TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT BUT A
NEW ZFP WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 155 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO REALLY WIND DOWN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR THE FALLING TEMPS RATHER THAN
WARMING TEMPS AS WE HAVE REACH OUR MAX TEMPS EARLIER THIS MORNING.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLDER AIR WORKING IN HAVE CAUSED
TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN SENT OUT BUT A
NEW ZFP WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
119 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. MOST
OF THEM WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AND AGAIN
IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHEAST WILL REINFORCE CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LEAD
TO MVFR CLOUD COVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. WILL
PUT THIS AT THE TAF SITES AND HAVE DECREASING CLOUD COVER LATE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KPAH 271754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.


UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care of
a thin layer of ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the afternoon, though
slow clearing is expected from west to east. Clearing will continue
into the evening, though there is some question as to how quickly
skies will clear at KEVV and KOWB. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the back
side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for VFR
conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Northwest winds this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight as the high moves
through. Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 271754
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1153 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.


UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care of
a thin layer of ice.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR ceilings will persist through much of the afternoon, though
slow clearing is expected from west to east. Clearing will continue
into the evening, though there is some question as to how quickly
skies will clear at KEVV and KOWB. A band of mid level clouds will
stream overhead tonight as weak warm advection develops on the back
side of departing high pressure. This will pave the way for VFR
conditions and more sunshine on Friday. Northwest winds this
afternoon will become light and variable tonight as the high moves
through. Winds will become southerly on the back side of the high
Friday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1226 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep and cyclonically curved NW flow has developed over the Ohio
Valley in the wake of the overnight Clipper. Low cloud deck has hung
in all morning, with persistent MVFR ceilings that have just barely
managed to lift above fuel-alternate thresholds. Expect status quo
through most of the afternoon with high-end MVFR and NW winds around
10 kt.

After sunset look for winds to diminish and ceilings to scatter out.
Another impulse will swing through overnight, but impact will be
minimal as it will only bring in a mid-level ceiling. Light south
winds and VFR conditions expected on Fri.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271542
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271542
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271542
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271542
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

A MORNING OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND SOON BECOMING MIXED WITH RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY CONTINUING IN THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BRIEF BREAK OF CLOUD COVER...NOW AS OF 1515Z OVER THE
OHIO RIVER BORDERING IN AND KY...CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY ASSISTED BY THE PERFECT TRAJECTORY IN
THE WIND FLOW FOR UPSLOPE. THOUGH DESPITE PREVIOUS EVENTS IN THIS
PATTERN...ACTIVITY IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED AND THE ANTICIPATED
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER...WITH A FEW BREAKS THROUGH THE DAY...SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO TEMPER THE HIGH TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED. BECAUSE OF
THIS...HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY A COUPLE
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY WITH A WEAK...THOUGH NOTICEABLE COOLER AIR MASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT AND A SECONDARY FRONT. THIS MENTIONED SECOND FRONT
IS PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTED BY THE MODELS MAKING IT FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
IMPACT EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...ON OF THE FEW MODELS...THE HRRR
AND CURRENT TRENDS MIGHT SUGGEST THIS FRONT BRINGING SOME FLURRIES
AND OR SPRINKLES TO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. AS WELL
ASSISTING ON THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THESE HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL AS A FRESH HWO PROLONGING THE
SNOW A BIT MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271441
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
941 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 935 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Deep NW flow has developed behind exiting Clipper system, leaving us
with a cloudy and somewhat raw day. Near-term guidance suggests
temps won`t rise much, but given upstream breaks in the stratus we
could rise a few degrees if there is well-timed sunshine. Max temps
should lean lower than guidance but only slightly...as mid/upper 30s
look to be on the generous side but still attainable. Updates on the
way to clean up morning snow mentions, as the rest of the day will
be precip-free.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271233
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 271233
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
733 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

JUST UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST MODEL AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND
EVOLUTION OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS MORNING. THE PREFIRST PERIOD
THAT WAS INCLUDED WITH THE 4 AM PACKAGE HAS BEEN REMOVED. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL VARY FROM A DUSTING TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH AND PERHAPS
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW ZONES AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KPAH 271150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care
of a thin layer of ice.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main issue for the TAFs this morning is how quickly the MVFR
ceilings will clear across the region. An area of clearing will
move southeast across the EVV and OWB areas in the next couple of
hours. This should be temporary. Went on the pessimistic side and
have the sites clearing from west to east in the 19Z-01Z
timeframe. There is some guidance that holds onto it much longer
into tonight, so this forecast may not be pessimistic enough.

Looks like some mid-level ceilings will move into the area mainly
overnight tonight, assuming the low clouds have cleared by then.
Northwest winds will continue to gust into the teens at times this
morning, but should subside gradually through the afternoon, as
the surface high approaches.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 271150
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The snow is down to patches of flurries at this point as expected.
Temperatures have fallen to or below freezing along and north of
the Shawnee Hills in southern Illinois, as well as, across
southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky. Decided to issue a
Special Weather Statement for black ice potential in these areas
through 9 AM. Figure that the sun angle will be high enough by
then, regardless of whether the clouds have broken, to take care
of a thin layer of ice.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 549 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The main issue for the TAFs this morning is how quickly the MVFR
ceilings will clear across the region. An area of clearing will
move southeast across the EVV and OWB areas in the next couple of
hours. This should be temporary. Went on the pessimistic side and
have the sites clearing from west to east in the 19Z-01Z
timeframe. There is some guidance that holds onto it much longer
into tonight, so this forecast may not be pessimistic enough.

Looks like some mid-level ceilings will move into the area mainly
overnight tonight, assuming the low clouds have cleared by then.
Northwest winds will continue to gust into the teens at times this
morning, but should subside gradually through the afternoon, as
the surface high approaches.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 271125
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES FROM TIME TO TIME
EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL VARY FROM MVFR
TO LIFR EARLY TODAY DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW AT ANY
GIVEN LOCATION. THE SNOW SHOULD MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
AROUND 13Z TODAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 271108
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to pull on off the southeast this morning.
Light snow has diminished markedly over central KY in the last
hour.  Only one last band of snow just south of the Ohio River is
left and it will move southeastward through the Bluegrass region
over the next hour.  This band may drop an additional dusting to a
few tenths of an inch of snow as it passes through.  Surface
observations show temperatures at or just below freezing.  This has
kept accumulations limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.  With
temperatures falling below freezing, some isolated slick spots may
still develop on area roadways...especially elevated areas such as
bridges and overpasses.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 271108
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 608 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to pull on off the southeast this morning.
Light snow has diminished markedly over central KY in the last
hour.  Only one last band of snow just south of the Ohio River is
left and it will move southeastward through the Bluegrass region
over the next hour.  This band may drop an additional dusting to a
few tenths of an inch of snow as it passes through.  Surface
observations show temperatures at or just below freezing.  This has
kept accumulations limited to grassy and elevated surfaces.  With
temperatures falling below freezing, some isolated slick spots may
still develop on area roadways...especially elevated areas such as
bridges and overpasses.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 604 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Clipper system continues to head eastward into southeastern KY this
morning.  One last, fast moving band up near the Ohio River will
drop southeastward and through the Bluegrass region in the next
hour...affecting the KLEX terminal.  IFR ceilings will be seen at
KBWG and KLEX for the first few hours of the upcoming TAF period.
However, conditions should improve by 27/14Z.  VFR conditions are
expected at KSDF.  Surface winds this morning will be mainly out of
the northwest at 8-10kts.

Cloudy conditions are expected to continue throughout the day with
ceilings slowly rising from around 035 to around 050 AGL by this
afternoon.  Partial clearing is expected to develop at the terminals
this evening with light northwesterly winds continuing.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KPAH 270857
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
257 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

The light snows are in the process of diminishing and it should be
done by sunrise. Not sure just how much has fallen, but from
pictures and reports on social media, it appears that an inch or a
bit more has fallen over portions of southwest Indiana and
northwest Kentucky overnight. Most of it appears to be on elevated
surfaces, as temperatures have fallen to or just below freezing
only along and north of I-64. Will keep an eye out for reports
after sunrise, and may issue a Special Weather Statement for slick
spots mainly on bridges this morning for holiday travelers.

Although, it appears that our Thanksgiving day will be dry, it
will not be a very nice day overall. Went very conservative in
clearing the low clouds from west to east mainly this afternoon.
With the clouds, gusty northwest winds, and temperatures
struggling to warm through the 30s, it will feel quite cold today.
The surface high will be settling over the area late today, so the
winds will be gradually diminishing this afternoon. Less wind and
more sunshine will make it feel a little better this afternoon.

Good radiational cooling is expected throughout the area tonight,
with the surface high overhead and a dry northwest flow aloft. The
cooler MAV looks better than the milder MET for lows, but it may
not be cold enough. As the flow aloft becomes more zonal, gusty
south winds will develop quickly Friday. The consensus of guidance
looks good for highs.

A tight pressure gradient will persist Friday night through
Saturday. The 00Z models continue to saturate the surface to 850mb
layer quickly late Friday night and keep it saturated through the
day Saturday. Had to fabricate some hefty sky cover grids to do it
justice. With the wind, clouds, and possibly some drizzle, Saturday
is not looking like the most pleasant of days. Trended down just a
bit for highs, but the forecast is still closer to the warmer MAV
guidance. The slightly milder MET guidance looks good for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

Despite a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern during the long term
period, a couple of surface frontal systems will bring changeable
weather.

The first cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Sunday night. This front will be preceded by a strong southwest low
level jet, around 50 knots at 850 mb. Though very dry air will
persist through most of the lower trop, a shallow layer of very high
rh levels is forecast below 850 mb. The 00z gfs and its ensemble
mean generate some very light qpf Saturday night and Sunday, which
is most likely depicting drizzle or sprinkles. Since the moisture
depth is very shallow, pops will be only in the slight chance
category for most of the region through Sunday. The extensive
cloudiness, low sun angle, and weak lapse rates should inhibit
mixing down of the strong winds just above the surface.

The 00z gfs/gefs mean are in agreement that rain will develop along
and behind the front as it moves through the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast Missouri Sunday night. The post-frontal rain will persist
through Monday. Some sleet cannot be ruled out at the tail end of
the event, depending on how quickly the colder air arrives. There
will be a reservoir of arctic air to our north as a 1040 mb high
passes over the upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Will introduce a
mention of sleet in parts of southern IL and southeast MO late
Sunday night into Monday. It appears the sub-freezing layer will be
below 850 mb, too shallow for snow. The new 00z ecmwf is slower with
the front, delaying the onset and departure of precip about 12 hours
longer than the gfs.

As for Tuesday and Wednesday, there should be a brief period of dry
weather before a weak shortwave approaches. There will be only a
short window of opportunity for moisture return ahead of this
system, so pops will be mainly in the slight chance category. Temps
will moderate ahead of the system and its associated cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The bulk of the snow is falling over the KEVV/KOWB areas with snow
flurries or light rain/drizzle falling at KCGI/KPAH. The
precipitation will likely last several hours and come to an end by
around 09Z. MVFR (or lower) conditions will linger overnight into
Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become northwesterly by tonight
and into tomorrow as the low departs. We should start seeing a
break in the ceilings during the afternoon hours.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...RJP/CW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270808
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
AREAL EXTENT OF THE PRECIP. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. EXTENSIVE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z
THIS EVENING BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST. COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY AS WELL...BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR INTRUSION...COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER...WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING BEYOND THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
TODAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE QUITE COLD AS WELL...WITH READINGS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL NOT BE A
WHOLE LOT WARMER...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FURTHER ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA BENEATH A LARGE DOME OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AROUND A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
CHILLY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AS LOWS DIP WELL INTO THE 20S AND PERHAPS
COLD ENOUGH IN SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS TO SEE SOME UPPER TEENS. A
WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH ONLY
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THIS WILL START OUR
WARM UP THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS RECOVER INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON STRONG
LOWER LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD INCREASING CLOUDS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY GET ADVECTED NORTHWARD TO SUPPORT
SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN. MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW WITH VERY
LITTLE IF ANY ICE IN THE CLOUDS...THUS...PLANNING TO GO WITH MORE OF
A CHANCE OF DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THE TIMING IS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS
FRONT...BUT I WOULD TEND TO PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION AS OF
RIGHT NOW AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT. REGARDLESS...PLAN TO BRING
POPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST BET RIGHT NOW FOR RAIN WOULD
BE ON MONDAY AS THIS SEEMS TO BE THE BEST OVERLAP BETWEEN MODELS.
THUS...PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. WHILE SOME
PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE
PLACE BEYOND THIS PERIOD...BUT HAVE GENERALLY GONE TOWARDS A DRIER
FORECAST AS WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE BEYOND
MONDAY IS VERY LOW. OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270807
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270807
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270807
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270807
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

In the near term, compact clipper system continues to slide eastward
across Kentucky this morning.  Most of the precipitation with this
system is now falling in the form of snow as the thermal profile has
cooled sufficiently. Surface temperatures have remained at or above
freezing which has limited accumulations.  Area webcams have shown a
dusting to a light coating on mainly grass and elevated surfaces.

For the remainder of the overnight hours, we expect this band of
snow to continue to pivot off to the east.  The heaviest snow will
generally be confined to areas along and just south of Interstate 64
with areas generally from Elizabethtown to Liberty, Kentucky having
the best chances of seeing light snowfall accumulations.  In
general, it still appears that a light slushy accumulation on grassy
and elevated surfaces will be the most we`ll see with this
activity.  Surface temperatures are expected to bottom out around
32-33 degrees for the remainder of the overnight period.  Some
locations across southern Indiana my drop to around 31 by daybreak.

For today/tonight, the multi-model consensus continues to be in
agreement with the clipper system moving off to the east.  However,
low-level moisture will remain in place across the region to keep
abundant cloudiness around for much of the day.  Afternoon
temperatures look to warm into the 35-37 degree range across the
north with 36-40 degree ranges across the south.  This is a little
cooler than the previous forecast.  Cloudiness will likely linger a
bit into the evening and overnight hours.  With the thermal profile
cooling at all levels, probably will squeeze out a few snow flurries
here and there.  Best chances of this would probably be in our
eastern sections closer to the higher moisture.  Lows tonight will
be chilly with lows dropping into the lower-middle 20s.

For Friday, we`ll see high pressure passing through the region. This
should result in generally partly cloudy skies.  The high should
move off to the east during the afternoon hours allowing more of a
southerly flow to develop.  This will allow temperatures to moderate
a bit with highs in the lower 40s in the north with lower-middle 40s
across the south.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

Milder conditions are in store for the region this weekend as
temperatures are expected to rise above normal by Sunday. Through
the weekend we will be sandwiched between high pressure to the east
and a low pressure system moving out of the upper Midwest and into
eastern Canada. This low pressure system will eventually swing a
cold front through the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday.
Ahead of this front southerly to southwesterly winds will advect in
warmer and moister air this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers
are expected Saturday through Sunday with the better chance for
showers across southern IN and central KY. High temperatures will
warm from the low to mid 50s on Saturday to the low to mid 60s on
Sunday. Lows will be in the upper 40s to low 50s Sunday.

The better chance for rain will come on Sunday night into Monday.
Models are actually in less agreement tonight than last night with
the timing of the front. The newest ECMWF came in much slower with
the front and highest precipitation chances. Will go somewhere in
the middle between it and the GFS for now with 40-50% chances for
precip both Sunday night and Monday. Rain chances will continue into
Monday night, particularly lingering across the Lake Cumberland
region. Despite temps falling into the 30s overnight, think this
precip will be all rain as a pronounced warm layer aloft can be seen
in soundings.

Forecast confidence is lower for Tuesday and Wednesday as model
solutions diverge. A weak disturbance looks to move up from the
southwest Tuesday bringing another round of light showers with a
weak front possibly moving through Tuesday night. Wednesday does
look to be drier, though this will be dependent on high pressure
building in. Temps will drop back down below normal Tuesday but may
rebound to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The bulk of the snow is falling over the KEVV/KOWB areas with snow
flurries or light rain/drizzle falling at KCGI/KPAH. The
precipitation will likely last several hours and come to an end by
around 09Z. MVFR (or lower) conditions will linger overnight into
Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become northwesterly by tonight
and into tomorrow as the low departs. We should start seeing a
break in the ceilings during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 270535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The bulk of the snow is falling over the KEVV/KOWB areas with snow
flurries or light rain/drizzle falling at KCGI/KPAH. The
precipitation will likely last several hours and come to an end by
around 09Z. MVFR (or lower) conditions will linger overnight into
Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become northwesterly by tonight
and into tomorrow as the low departs. We should start seeing a
break in the ceilings during the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
FIRST...THE POPS. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...TONED BACK SOME OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWED FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ONGOING FORECASTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IT SHOWED TEMPS RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING NEAR
DAWN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WAS CREATING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EVEN WHEN BLENDING IN THE
LATEST NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS. ENDED UP ADJUSTING THE DIURNAL CURVE
FOR A MORE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

AS SUCH...THIS CHANGED THE WEATHER TYPES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY IT ALLOWED FOR BETTER MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...FELT THAT SNOW TOTALS
ULTIMATELY SEEMED REASONABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE CHANGED. STILL
EXPECTING BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DAWN WHEN TEMPS ARE THE
COLDEST. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DYING DOWN AND MOVING
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WORK TO QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT HAS
ACCUMULATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEW POINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WET BULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WET BULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

LOZ AND SME ARE ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
JKL AND SJS CAN EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR BETWEEN 7 AND 8Z AS AN AREA
OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SNOW AT THE TAF SITES AROUND 8Z. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END
AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL AROUND 14Z. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR WITH CIGS OF 3-4K BY 15 OR 16Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 270501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270501
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1201 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1200 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014

A clipper system will continue to slide across southern Kentucky
tonight bringing precipitation and low ceilings to mainly the KBWG
terminal overnight.  Some light rain/snow may impact the KSDF
terminal later this morning...between 27/05-11Z...while KLEX looks
to remain pretty much dry.  Northeasterly surface winds will
continue at KSDF and KLEX in the near term and then shift to the
northwest/west as the clipper moves on off to the east.

Main aviation impacts will be further south at KBWG where ceilings
will likely oscillate between MVFR and IFR throughout the night
while visibilities generally remain MVFR due to light rain and
snow.  The precipitation looks to remain a mix in the near term but
will become all snow after 27/07Z.  Low ceilings are likely to
continue at KBWG through sunrise.

It appears that quite a bit of cloudiness will linger during the
daytime hours in the wake of the passing clipper system. KBWG should
see a return to VFR conditions after 27/14Z with continued improving
conditions at KSDF/KLEX throughout the day.  Surface winds will
remain out of the NW at 8-10kts and then start to slacken by evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 270405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
FIRST...THE POPS. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...TONED BACK SOME OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWED FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ONGOING FORECASTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IT SHOWED TEMPS RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING NEAR
DAWN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WAS CREATING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EVEN WHEN BLENDING IN THE
LATEST NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS. ENDED UP ADJUSTING THE DIURNAL CURVE
FOR A MORE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

AS SUCH...THIS CHANGED THE WEATHER TYPES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY IT ALLOWED FOR BETTER MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...FELT THAT SNOW TOTALS
ULTIMATELY SEEMED REASONABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE CHANGED. STILL
EXPECTING BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DAWN WHEN TEMPS ARE THE
COLDEST. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DYING DOWN AND MOVING
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WORK TO QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT HAS
ACCUMULATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
FIRST...THE POPS. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...TONED BACK SOME OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWED FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ONGOING FORECASTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IT SHOWED TEMPS RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING NEAR
DAWN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WAS CREATING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EVEN WHEN BLENDING IN THE
LATEST NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS. ENDED UP ADJUSTING THE DIURNAL CURVE
FOR A MORE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

AS SUCH...THIS CHANGED THE WEATHER TYPES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY IT ALLOWED FOR BETTER MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...FELT THAT SNOW TOTALS
ULTIMATELY SEEMED REASONABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE CHANGED. STILL
EXPECTING BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DAWN WHEN TEMPS ARE THE
COLDEST. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DYING DOWN AND MOVING
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WORK TO QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT HAS
ACCUMULATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 270405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
FIRST...THE POPS. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...TONED BACK SOME OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWED FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ONGOING FORECASTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IT SHOWED TEMPS RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING NEAR
DAWN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WAS CREATING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EVEN WHEN BLENDING IN THE
LATEST NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS. ENDED UP ADJUSTING THE DIURNAL CURVE
FOR A MORE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

AS SUCH...THIS CHANGED THE WEATHER TYPES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY IT ALLOWED FOR BETTER MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...FELT THAT SNOW TOTALS
ULTIMATELY SEEMED REASONABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE CHANGED. STILL
EXPECTING BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DAWN WHEN TEMPS ARE THE
COLDEST. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DYING DOWN AND MOVING
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WORK TO QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT HAS
ACCUMULATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 270405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1104 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

SEVERAL CHANGES WERE MADE BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND TRENDS.
FIRST...THE POPS. OVERALL...THE RAINFALL COVERAGE SEEMS TO MATCH UP
WELL WITH THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR POPS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT REACHED AS FAR NORTH AS WAS ORIGINALLY EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT...TONED BACK SOME OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ONCE MORE PRECIP MOVES
INTO THE AREA...ALLOWED FOR SOME SLIGHT CHANCES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

ALSO...LOOKING AT THE ONGOING FORECASTED DIURNAL CURVE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...IT SHOWED TEMPS RISING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE DROPPING NEAR
DAWN. MEANWHILE...CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING TEMPERATURES
EITHER REMAINING STEADY OR DROPPING ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WAS CREATING
SOME DISCREPANCIES IN THE NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AND WOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...EVEN WHEN BLENDING IN THE
LATEST NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONS. ENDED UP ADJUSTING THE DIURNAL CURVE
FOR A MORE STEADY DOWNWARD TREND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

AS SUCH...THIS CHANGED THE WEATHER TYPES SOMEWHAT THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY IT ALLOWED FOR BETTER MATCHING UP WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES FOR CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW. BUT GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE
OF THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS SNOW WILL MIX
WITH RAIN THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT...FELT THAT SNOW TOTALS
ULTIMATELY SEEMED REASONABLE AND DID NOT NEED TO BE CHANGED. STILL
EXPECTING BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND DAWN WHEN TEMPS ARE THE
COLDEST. BUT AT THIS POINT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DYING DOWN AND MOVING
OUT...AND DAYTIME TEMPS WILL WORK TO QUICKLY MELT ANYTHING THAT HAS
ACCUMULATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 270145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 270145
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 845 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Overall the forecast is in good shape.  Only significant change
made at this time is to ramp PoPs up to 100% where precipitation is
currently falling or is imminent.  Did increase PoPs just a bit
along the northern edge of the band as well. PoP changes were based
off of mesoscale model data and current radar information.

Clipper low at 01Z was centered between Paducah and Evansville, with
a surface trof reaching northwestward into Illinois.  This system
will move quickly eastward across the region tonight.  Light rain
has been falling ahead of the clipper, with light snow behind it in
the colder air.

The rain/snow line has been creeping slowly but steadily
southeastward, and the freezing level aloft has been lowering very
slowly over the past few hours as indicated by radar.  So, some
light snow is still expected after midnight across portions of
central and south central Kentucky.  There still appears to be only
minor impact, though, with warm surface temperatures, warm boundary
layer temperatures, and the fact that the snow will be falling
during the late night/pre-dawn hours.  Nevertheless, something to
keep an eye on for anyone out traveling overnight in central
Kentucky.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262356
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA...WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THICKENING
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE CLOUDS ARE
HIGH...BUT ARE COVERING A LARGE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...SO WENT AHEAD
AND INCLUDED BKN CLOUDS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.
CURRENTLY...TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS 10 TO 20 DEGREES. ALTHOUGH WE ARE
GETTING A FEW RADAR RETURNS IN THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE CWA...IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT ANY OF THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS. AND GIVEN THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES...ONCE
PRECIP DOES FALL...IT SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z...IF NOT LONGER IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THEN HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
THEREAFTER UNTIL WARMING AGAIN AFTER DAY BREAK. HOWEVER...ACCORDING
TO THE LATEST WPC WINTER WEATHER ACCUMULATION FORECAST ISSUED AROUND
1630Z...2 TO 4 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. IN OTHER WORDS...SOME GOOD WET BULBING PROCESSES ARE GOING
TO HAVE TO TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING IN ORDER FOR THIS TO PAN OUT. AS
SUCH...THERE HASN/T BEEN ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO CHANGE THE CURRENT
FORECAST SNOW TOTALS. STILL EXPECT WHAT DOES FALL TO MAINLY
ACCUMULATE ON THE GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES...AND TURN INTO A
SLUSHY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ON THE ROADWAYS BEFORE QUICKLY MELTING
OFF.

WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION UPSTREAM AS THIS
SYSTEM NEARS AND BEGINS IMPACTING THE REGION...IN CASE ANY
MODIFICATIONS TO THE CURRENT SNOW/RAIN FORECAST NEED TO BE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF/JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262324
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262324
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 624 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

A weakening clipper located near PAH at 00Z will slide quickly
across southern Kentucky tonight, bringing precipitation and low
ceilings to BWG while leaving SDF and LEX largely unscathed.  Could
see a few sprinkles or flurries at the northern TAF sites, and some
model data suggest the possibility of an intermittent MVFR ceiling
at SDF from 06Z to 10Z, but otherwise those TAF sites will remain
VFR for the forecast period. Variable winds this evening will become
northwest in the 5 to 10 knot range after midnight and continue that
way into the daylight hours Thursday.

Fortunately at BWG, the worst conditions will occur overnight when
there is little if any activity at the airport.  Ceilings will
gradually lower this evening and become MVFR, with light rain moving
in this evening changing to light snow late this evening into the
pre dawn hours.  There are some IFR and even LIFR ceilings and
visibilities upstream, but with the weakening state of the incoming
disturbance will keep BWG MVFR for now, though will take ceilings
below 2000 feet.  Conditions should rapidly improve by sunup as the
clipper leaves, though some residual moisture will create scattered
(maybe broken at times) clouds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........13





000
FXUS63 KPAH 262321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Band of rain/snow moving through the area. Any additional activity
at KCGI/KPAH should be tapering off but lingering rain/snow could
continue for a few more hours. At KEVV/KOWB, precipitation is
knocking at the door and will start out as rain but quickly
transition to RASN to eventually all snow. Visibilities and cigs
will come down to MVFR. The precipitation will likely last several
hours and come to an end close to midnight or so. MVFR conditions
will linger overnight into Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become
northwesterly by tonight and into tomorrow as the low departs. We
should start seeing a break in the ceilings during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW






000
FXUS63 KPAH 262321
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
521 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 520 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Band of rain/snow moving through the area. Any additional activity
at KCGI/KPAH should be tapering off but lingering rain/snow could
continue for a few more hours. At KEVV/KOWB, precipitation is
knocking at the door and will start out as rain but quickly
transition to RASN to eventually all snow. Visibilities and cigs
will come down to MVFR. The precipitation will likely last several
hours and come to an end close to midnight or so. MVFR conditions
will linger overnight into Thanksgiving morning. Winds will become
northwesterly by tonight and into tomorrow as the low departs. We
should start seeing a break in the ceilings during the afternoon
hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CW
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP/CW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 262102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 262102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 262102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 262102
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
302 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Main concern is the potential for light wintry precipitation through
the evening as a clipper system makes passage. Latest radar time
lapse indicates light precipitation covering the middle of the
forecast area. The precipitation started out as a mix of light rain
and light snow over southeast Missouri this morning. However, as
temperatures warmed, most of the precipitation has changed over to
rain this afternoon. That said, some snow flakes likely remain mixed
in across northern portions of southern Illinois.

As we progress through the late afternoon and evening, more of the
rain is forecast to become mixed with and transition over to light
snow as colder air filters in from the northwest. Snow accumulation
should remain on the light side - generally less than a half inch -
across southwest Indiana, northwest Kentucky, and southern Illinois
along and north of the Shawnee Hills. Any accumulation should be
most prominent on grassy and elevated surfaces. Lingering snow
will taper off west to east later this evening and overnight.

Behind the departing system, high pressure will build in for
Thanksgiving and Black Friday. While plenty of low clouds will be
around Thanksgiving morning, a trend towards more sunshine is
expected during the afternoon and especially Friday. Thanksgiving
Day will be quite cold as temperatures start off in the upper 20s
and lower 30s and only reach afternoon highs in the mid to upper
30s. Lows in the 20s Thursday night will be followed by milder
readings in the mid to upper 40s on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Forecast confidence better in the first few 12 hour blocks of the
long term period, then drops off due to model differences through
the remainder of the period. Even so, there are a number of
precipitation possibilities during the period, all of them being of
the liquid variety.

The long term period starts off with high pressure at the surface
and west northwest flow aloft. On Saturday southerly winds will
moisten up the lower levels (AOB 700MB) and there will be decent
upglide on the I295 isentropic surface, so there might be patches of
sprinkles or drizzle over all but the far western and northwestern
sections.

Precipitation chances increase slightly Saturday night with
deepening moisture and the approach of a frontal system from the
northwest. A slight increase in POPS expected on Sunday as the front
draws even closer. Model timing on this feature not good. At 6 PM
Sunday the GFS has the front bisecting our CWA from NE-SW while the
ECMWF has it barely entering the western portions. Either way the
proximity of the boundary should generate an increase in POPS.

Sunday night both the GFS and the ECMWF generate a NE-SW band of
post-frontal precipitation, but due to placement of the boundary,
the bands of QPF differ as well. The GFS shows the best chances over
the southeast two thirds of the CWA, especially along and near the
KY/TN border whereas the ECMWF focuses the best chances over the
northwest two thirds of the area.

Precipitation chances should continue into Monday as a short wave
approaching from the southern plains induces a wave on the boundary
to our south thereby producing overrunning precipitation over the
area. Placement of QPF once again differs between models. Depending
on how much QPF there is over the northwest sections Monday
afternoon and how quickly the colder air filters in, a little snow
could be mixed with the rain in that area, but will leave all liquid
for the time being.

Monday night the flow aloft will veer around to the northwest enough
to push the aforementioned boundary and moisture out of all but the
far southeast sections of our CWA. Right now it appears Tuesday will
be dry although there could be small chances near the far southeast
corner of our CWA, but will keep dry for now.

From Tuesday night through the end of the period long term models
couldn`t be more different. Tuesday night the GFS brings an E-W
frontal boundary southward toward our region, keeps the boundary to
our north, then moves it back to the north as a warm front as a
strong storm system prepares to eject northeast out of the plains on
Wednesday. To be honest, at this point it`s difficult determining
what the ECMWF is thinking. It indicates a dry frontal passage
Tuesday night with surface high pressure overspreading the region on
Wednesday. For the sake of continuity and collaboration, will follow
Superblend output fairly closely which indicates precipitation
chances over all or part of our CWA both Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KJKL 262015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 262015 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...SOME SLUSHY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
PARTS OF EAST KENTUCKY...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS EAST KENTUCKY IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. TO THE EAST...A COASTAL LOW IS NOW PASSING NORTH OF CAPE
HATTERAS...WHILE A MORE MODERATE STRENGTH SFC LOW IS LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI ON ITS PATH SOUTHEAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. IN
THE GAP BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS ENOUGH CLEARING TOOK PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE AREA THAT TEMPERATURES CLIMBED INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FOUND IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S...THOUGH WITH SOME 30S IN THE FAR EAST.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...NOW THAT THE GFS IS
BREAKING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NAM...ALOFT WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT. THEY ALL SHOW THE
ENERGY...ASSOCIATED WITH EASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE TROUGH IN
PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME...A SECONDARY BATCH OF
ENERGY WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH WILL RIDE SOUTHEAST FROM THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...THOUGH SHEARING AS IT PASSES
BY KENTUCKY TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. FOLLOWING THIS...THE WHOLE TROUGH
BODILY MOVES OUT OF THE REGION AND RISING HEIGHTS FOLLOW. HAVE
FOLLOWED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION THE
FORECAST WITH SOME CAUTIOUS FAVORING OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12
AND HRRR FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS OVERTAKE
THE SKY AND LOWER WITH TIME. A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AND INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE.
THIS WILL BRING WITH IT A NARROW BAND OF PCPN CAPABLE OF BECOMING
SNOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED WETBULB EFFECT WHEN IT STARTS COMING DOWN
MODERATELY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR 32 DEGREES AT THEIR COLDEST LIKELY PREVENTING MUCH
ACCUMULATION ON ANYTHING MORE THAN GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES AND
THEN MAINLY ON THE RIDGES AS THE VALLEYS REMAIN A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. THIS IS A DISTURBINGLY SIMILAR SITUATION AS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE THE HEAVIER PCPN STAYED JUST OFF TO THE EAST.
THESE SMALL SCALE DETAILS MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN MARGINAL
SITUATIONS AS THIS. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A HEAVIER BURST OR TWO
OF SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON THE ROADS. THIS
SHOULD NOT LAST LONG...THOUGH...AS ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE 40S AND 50S AND WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL WITH THE PCPN TONIGHT. HAVE
ISSUED AN SPS TO DEAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW
THAT SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT ON TRAVELERS TONIGHT. THE LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN PULLS OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAINLY TO LOWER
THE RIDGES IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PCPN AND ANTICIPATED
WETBULBING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DRIER MAV
AND WETTER MET NUMBERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN
MATCHED THEIR DRY CONSENSUS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT WITH A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES OUT
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY...AND THEN STALL OUT IN
OUR VICINITY AS THE SPONSORING UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
A SECOND TROUGH WILL THEN FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRACK AND PASS BY TO OUR
NORTH MIDWEEK. FORECAST MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS
SHORTWAVE AND THE RESULTING IMPACT IT WILL HAVE ON THE FRONT
AND FORECASTER CONFIDENCE DROPS BELOW AVERAGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A MODERATING TREND OVER THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY...THE WARMING TEMPS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE
FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. BEYOND MONDAY...TEMPS AND RAIN CHANCES
ARE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE MODEL DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT. SIDING WITH A MODEL BLEND YIELDS NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AND
A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262003
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set will be the impact and extent of the
Clipper system passing across Kentucky overnight. Confidence is
fairly high that there will be at least minor impact in BWG, and
little or no impact in LEX, while SDF is a bit more uncertain.

Greatest forcing will be across BWG from roughly 04-10Z, and the
column will be cool enough to support snow. Most likely scenario is
high-end MVFR ceiling and vis with light snow, but could briefly go
fuel-alternate or even IFR. Not confident enough in the timing to
include a TEMPO. SDF and LEX will be a bit far north to get in on
significant precip, but will carry VCSH for a few hrs overnight with
ceilings just barely VFR.

Modest cold advection will increase NW winds to around 10 kt on
Thursday morning. However, mixing will not be too deep so gust
potential is limited, and cig/vis recover to VFR across the board.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262003
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set will be the impact and extent of the
Clipper system passing across Kentucky overnight. Confidence is
fairly high that there will be at least minor impact in BWG, and
little or no impact in LEX, while SDF is a bit more uncertain.

Greatest forcing will be across BWG from roughly 04-10Z, and the
column will be cool enough to support snow. Most likely scenario is
high-end MVFR ceiling and vis with light snow, but could briefly go
fuel-alternate or even IFR. Not confident enough in the timing to
include a TEMPO. SDF and LEX will be a bit far north to get in on
significant precip, but will carry VCSH for a few hrs overnight with
ceilings just barely VFR.

Modest cold advection will increase NW winds to around 10 kt on
Thursday morning. However, mixing will not be too deep so gust
potential is limited, and cig/vis recover to VFR across the board.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262003
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set will be the impact and extent of the
Clipper system passing across Kentucky overnight. Confidence is
fairly high that there will be at least minor impact in BWG, and
little or no impact in LEX, while SDF is a bit more uncertain.

Greatest forcing will be across BWG from roughly 04-10Z, and the
column will be cool enough to support snow. Most likely scenario is
high-end MVFR ceiling and vis with light snow, but could briefly go
fuel-alternate or even IFR. Not confident enough in the timing to
include a TEMPO. SDF and LEX will be a bit far north to get in on
significant precip, but will carry VCSH for a few hrs overnight with
ceilings just barely VFR.

Modest cold advection will increase NW winds to around 10 kt on
Thursday morning. However, mixing will not be too deep so gust
potential is limited, and cig/vis recover to VFR across the board.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 262003
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Minor Snow Accumulations Possible Overnight...

Warm advection precip shield is fairly well established along the
Mississippi River, as a Clipper low dives SE across Iowa. Clouds are
already on the increase west of I-65, and temps have climbed solidly
into the 40s. Main challenge in this forecast will be the impacts of
any snow produced by this Clipper as it swings through the Ohio
Valley.

Expect precip to reach our far southwest counties, including the
Bowling Green area and the Natcher Parkway, around sunset or shortly
thereafter. May take some time to overcome dry low-level air, but we
are warm enough that it will start off primarily as rain.

Precip will continue to spread east as the evening wears on, with
the better chances south of a line from Jasper to Elizabethtown to
Jamestown. Temps aloft are cool enough that the changeover to snow
will occur with surface air temps above freezing. Good model
agreement on decent QPF with this system, perhaps even pushing a
quarter inch of liquid along the TN border. However, warm temps will
limit accumulation, and impacts will be further mitigated by ground
and pavement temps in the 40s and 50s. The sweet spot for snow
accumulation actually appears to be near the Cumberland Parkway,
where we could approach 1 inch before it melts away quickly after
the precip shuts off. Will detail this in a Special Weather
Statement, and reserve the right to hoist a Winter Weather Advisory
if the snowfall rates upstream suggest there will be a greater
impact.

Temps will remain just above freezing even where it snows, albeit
with minimal daytime recovery on Thanksgiving Day. Afternoon highs
still unseasonably chilly, as well as the Thursday night lows as we
get into favorable radiational cooling conditions.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Friday - Friday Night...

A surface high pressure will slide off the to our east on Friday
with light southerly flow returning on the back side. Meanwhile,
benign NW flow aloft will hold. This will yield a dry forecast with
milder temperatures in the low and mid 40s. A few upper 40s are
possible SW. Southerly flow will increase on Friday night as a
surface low moves into the upper Midwest, resulting in lows a full
10-15 degrees milder than Thursday night. Look for low 30s NE to
upper 30s SW.

Saturday - Monday...

Upper level flow will flatten out as we progress through the
weekend, even taking on a slight SW flow by Sunday. Will include
mention of a chance of sprinkles on Saturday as moisture in the
1000-850 mb layer pools into the area on steady SW flow. This
moisture combined with a weak isentropic component may be able to
squeeze out a few drops. Otherwise, expect continued warming
temperatures mainly on the advective component. Saturdays highs
should be in the 50s.

Slightly deeper moisture arrives Saturday night and Sunday, pooling
just ahead of a passing cold front that extends from a system moving
into eastern Canada. Will continue mention of some isolated to
scattered measurable rain chances during this time, however not
enough deep moisture to go much higher with Pops. Temps continue to
trend milder during this time with lows Saturday night in the 47-52
range and highs on Sunday in the 60 to 65 range. Again, this will
purely be on an advective component as cloud cover should be pretty
extensive.

Will continue to mention the best chances for rain on Sunday night
Monday as the front (nearly parallel to the upper flow) slowly
passes. Temperatures will be tricky during this time, and obviously
still mild south and east of the boundary versus much cooler north
and west of the boundary.

Monday Night - Wednesday...

Model solutions diverge as we head into the new work week. However,
most solutions indicate we will have a drying period as the front
tries to push east and surface high of Canadian origin slides across
our north. Can`t rule out some lingering light showers on Tuesday as
low level moisture lingers around the stalled front just to our SE.
Have tried to indicate some cold nights across our north with Monday
night dipping just below freezing north of the I-64 corridor. Will
stay in the mid and upper 30s south. High temperatures will be
dependent on how much progress SE the front makes it.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set will be the impact and extent of the
Clipper system passing across Kentucky overnight. Confidence is
fairly high that there will be at least minor impact in BWG, and
little or no impact in LEX, while SDF is a bit more uncertain.

Greatest forcing will be across BWG from roughly 04-10Z, and the
column will be cool enough to support snow. Most likely scenario is
high-end MVFR ceiling and vis with light snow, but could briefly go
fuel-alternate or even IFR. Not confident enough in the timing to
include a TEMPO. SDF and LEX will be a bit far north to get in on
significant precip, but will carry VCSH for a few hrs overnight with
ceilings just barely VFR.

Modest cold advection will increase NW winds to around 10 kt on
Thursday morning. However, mixing will not be too deep so gust
potential is limited, and cig/vis recover to VFR across the board.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATION.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A ZONE UPDATE
TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATION.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A ZONE UPDATE
TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATION.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A ZONE UPDATE
TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261825 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO RAISE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO
FINE TUNED THE HOURLY T/TD/SKY GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATION.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS WITH A ZONE UPDATE
TO FOLLOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE CIGS START TO DROP...PARTICULARLY AT THE SOUTHERN SITES. EXPECT
AN AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW TO SLIDE THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND VALLEY
OVERNIGHT WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF DROPPING VIS AND CIGS INTO THE MVFR
AND IFR RANGES AS THE SNOW DEVELOPS AND PASSES THROUGH. THE SME AND
LOZ SITES WILL LIKELY SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...THOUGH IF THE PCPN
IS NOT ABLE TO WET BULB TO SNOW EFFECTIVELY...AT LEAST THE VIS WILL
NOT BE AS LOW AS CURRENTLY FORECASTED. EXPECT THE CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES...
BUT CIGS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR AT MOST SITES THROUGH THE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE PICKING UP
A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC LOW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KPAH 261815
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261815
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261815
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 261815
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1214 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1214 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

Light rain will spread east across the forecast terminals this
afternoon, with MVFR ceilings following a few hours after the rain
begins. Rain will mix with snow this evening before tapering off
prior to or around midnight. MVFR conditions will linger overnight
into Thanksgiving morning. Southeast winds less than 10 knots ahead
of an approaching surface low will become northwesterly by tonight
as the low departs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261515 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261515 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNNING UP THE CAROLINA
COAST. THIS IS NOT DEEPENING OR EXPANDING AS MUCH AS THE MODELS...
EXCEPT THE HRRR...HAD SUGGESTED YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...THE PCPN
SHIELD...AND CERTAINLY THE HEAVIER AMOUNTS FROM IT...STAYED JUST
EAST OF THE JKL CWA LEAVING MOST OF THE ADVISORY AREA WITH POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN AT WORST. WITHOUT THE HEAVIER RATES THE SUB FREEZING
DEWPOINTS WERE NOT ABLE TO WET-BULB THE TEMPERATURE DOWN EFFECTIVELY
IN MOST PLACES. CERTAINLY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S ON
BLACK MOUNTAIN AND DORTON SOME OF THIS FELL AS SNOW...BUT I DOUBT
THAT ANY MORE THAN AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRED EVEN ON THE
HIGHEST PEAKS. A REPORT OUT OF PHELPS INDICATED SNOW WAS OCCURRING
THERE WITH THE RIDGES TINGED WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT A FAR CRY
FROM THE NAM SUGGESTIONS OF THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED AROUND SUNRISE TO CLEAR OUT THE
ADVISORIES AND REMOVE MOST OF THE SNOW WORDING. HAVE SINCE UPDATED TO
FINE TUNE TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY PER THE LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261235
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261235
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261235
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 261235
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY. OBS
AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THAT PAST FEW HOURS HAVE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SNOW HAS BEEN FALLING IN THE COUNTIES THAT WERE
INCLUDED OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. CURRENT RADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT IS CURRENTLY ONGOING WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. THE
FORECAST GRIDS...ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT...AND HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ADVISORY CANCELLATION.
WILL BE ISSUING THE UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KPAH 261212
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 612 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

High/mid level clouds will spread across TAF sites through 18z.
Rain will spread east across late this morning into this afternoon
along with MVFR cigs/vsbys. Rain will mix with snow between 23z-
02z, changing to snow at KEVV/KOWB around 02z. MVFR conditions
will continue overnight, with precip ending between 03z-08z. E/NE
winds around 5 kts will gradually become NW overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST






000
FXUS63 KPAH 261212
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 612 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

High/mid level clouds will spread across TAF sites through 18z.
Rain will spread east across late this morning into this afternoon
along with MVFR cigs/vsbys. Rain will mix with snow between 23z-
02z, changing to snow at KEVV/KOWB around 02z. MVFR conditions
will continue overnight, with precip ending between 03z-08z. E/NE
winds around 5 kts will gradually become NW overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...RST







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261152
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261152
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261152
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 261152
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 651 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA...THE TAF SITES WILL
LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY....AS THE STORM SYSTEM
THAT WAS FORECAST TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN OUR HIGHER TERRAIN
IS TRACKING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 2Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH TIME MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS WILL
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE THE MVFR CONDITIONS AFTER 3 OR 4Z. A SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE TAF SITES
AFTER 2Z THIS EVENING...LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
BASED ON CURRENT DATA...THE TAF SITES COULD SEE MVFR CONDITIONS...OR
PERHAPS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR...DURING ANY SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 261119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at the terminals
as we sit between weather systems.  The next weather system in the
form of an Alberta clipper will drop southeastward into the region
late this afternoon and this evening.  As this system approaches it
will bring clouds and precipitation in the form of rain.  Based on
the latest data, the best precipitation chances look to be at KBWG
through the period...with just more scattered rain showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  As the column cools tonight, the rain is expected to mix
with and change over to snow before diminishing by early Thursday
morning.  Primarily VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX,
however, it appears that a period of MVFR conditions will be likely
at KBWG mainly between 27/04-10Z.  Conditions look to improve by
27/10-12Z at all the terminals as the clipper system pulls on off to
th east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at the terminals
as we sit between weather systems.  The next weather system in the
form of an Alberta clipper will drop southeastward into the region
late this afternoon and this evening.  As this system approaches it
will bring clouds and precipitation in the form of rain.  Based on
the latest data, the best precipitation chances look to be at KBWG
through the period...with just more scattered rain showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  As the column cools tonight, the rain is expected to mix
with and change over to snow before diminishing by early Thursday
morning.  Primarily VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX,
however, it appears that a period of MVFR conditions will be likely
at KBWG mainly between 27/04-10Z.  Conditions look to improve by
27/10-12Z at all the terminals as the clipper system pulls on off to
th east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at the terminals
as we sit between weather systems.  The next weather system in the
form of an Alberta clipper will drop southeastward into the region
late this afternoon and this evening.  As this system approaches it
will bring clouds and precipitation in the form of rain.  Based on
the latest data, the best precipitation chances look to be at KBWG
through the period...with just more scattered rain showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  As the column cools tonight, the rain is expected to mix
with and change over to snow before diminishing by early Thursday
morning.  Primarily VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX,
however, it appears that a period of MVFR conditions will be likely
at KBWG mainly between 27/04-10Z.  Conditions look to improve by
27/10-12Z at all the terminals as the clipper system pulls on off to
th east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261119
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 619 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at the terminals
as we sit between weather systems.  The next weather system in the
form of an Alberta clipper will drop southeastward into the region
late this afternoon and this evening.  As this system approaches it
will bring clouds and precipitation in the form of rain.  Based on
the latest data, the best precipitation chances look to be at KBWG
through the period...with just more scattered rain showers at KLEX
and KSDF.  As the column cools tonight, the rain is expected to mix
with and change over to snow before diminishing by early Thursday
morning.  Primarily VFR conditions are expected at KSDF and KLEX,
however, it appears that a period of MVFR conditions will be likely
at KBWG mainly between 27/04-10Z.  Conditions look to improve by
27/10-12Z at all the terminals as the clipper system pulls on off to
th east.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KPAH 260854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 260854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 260854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 260854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
254 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

NAM, ECMWF and GEM are in good agreement on the timing of our
approaching weather system, which overall slows down the onset and
ending of precipitation today into tonight by 3 to 6 hours. GFS is
a faster outlier. Based on current radar and good agreement of the
models, prefer the slower solutions. Precip will spread across
southeast Missouri into portions of southwest Illinois and far
west Kentucky by 18z, possibly starting as a rain/snow mix. Rain
will spread across the entire PAH forecast area through mid
afternoon.

Soundings and thicknesses indicate rain mixing with then changing
to snow across our northern half of counties during the late
afternoon and early evening hours. We could see a few tenths of
snow accumulation mainly across portions of southern Illinois
along and north of Route 13, southwest Indiana and northwest
Kentucky during the evening when temperatures drop to around
freezing. Our southern counties should become a rain/snow mix
during the evening before ending, with no accumulation expected.
Precip will end from west to east from late evening into the early
morning hours.

High pressure will slide across the Mississippi valley Thursday
into Thursday night, moving over the southeast U.S. on Friday.
Thanksgiving day will be dry and chilly with high temperatures in
the 30s to lower 40s with lows that night in the 20s. Winds will
shift back to the south on Friday and become breezy, starting a
nice warm up. Highs will climb back into the middle 40s to lower
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

The medium range models continue to indicate a cold frontal passage
through the entire area Sunday night with a good chance of mainly
light rain Sunday night and Monday. There is considerable divergence
heading into Tuesday/Day 7.

The period will begin with broad zonal flow over the entire country,
and good southerly flow in the low-levels. This leads to a
significant increase in low-level moisture Saturday into Sunday. As
the front approaches there will be a saturated layer generally from
the surface through or just below 700mb for the front to work with.
Model soundings today are not as supportive of instability beneath
the mid-level inversion as yesterday, so would expect areas of
measurable drizzle or light rain. Given the lack of significant mid
and upper-level forcing, will keep the PoPs at or below 50% near the
front Sunday night and Monday.

The flow aloft will continue to be very progressive next week.
Behind the front, a 1040+mb surface high will push eastward across
the Great Lakes, providing just a glancing blow to our region.
Monday will likely be a bit below normal, but we could be in return
flow by early Tuesday. The GFS and ECMWF diverge considerably in
timing the next mid/upper-level disturbance and cold front through
our region next week. The bottom-line is that there is very low
confidence for Tuesday and beyond. Although the GFS and ECMWF agree
with a Sunday night cold frontal passage, they are 180 degrees
different with the low-level flow by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260832
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 330 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Wintry Mix Tonight and Early Thursday Morning...

In the near term, quiet weather was noted across the forecast area
this morning.  On IR satellite this morning, a classic baroclinic
leaf structure was observed over our area.  This feature has led to
mostly cloudy skies over the eastern half of the state while the
western sections of the state have remained mostly clear.  Within
the cloudy areas, temperatures were generally in the mid-upper 30s.
However, in the clear areas, temperatures had fallen off into
lower-middle 20s.  Over the next few hours, we expect the cloudiness
in the east to lift eastward. This should allow temperatures out in
the central sections to fall into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

For today, we`ll start off dry across the region as high pressure
pushes eastward and away from the region.  Clouds will be on the
increase throughout the day as a fast moving clipper system will
approach from the northwest/west.  Highs this afternoon will likely
warm into the lower 40s in the north with mid-upper 40s across the
south.  As the clipper approaches, strong mid-level frontogenesis
will increase within the tight gradient of the jet streak
approaching aloft.  This will allow precipitation to streak in from
the west late this afternoon.  At this time, it appears that the
best chances of rain this afternoon will be out across our
southwestern half of the forecast area, with lesser chance up across
the Bluegrass region.

For tonight, the latest guidance continue to be in general agreement
with swinging the clipper through the region.  There continues to be
some variability in the track of the system.  The NAM guidance is
still on the southern side of the envelope while the GFS solutions
are a little more north.  Tracks aside, the challenge here will be
where and/if a narrow band of heavier precipitation develops just
north of the eventual surface track.  Low-level thermal profiles
continue to start off warm with precipitation starting off as mainly
rain.  However, as heavier precipitation develops this may result in
some colder air being dragged down and pushing the profile cold
enough to produce snow...despite surface temps above 32.  Wetbulb
temps still look to be just above freezing through much of the event
as well.

At this time, we believe that we`ll see a band of moderate
precipitation move across our southern half of the forecast area
this evening. As mentioned above, a very narrow band of moderate to
even heavy precipitation may develop.  As the evening wears on, we
should see all precipitation change over to snow by midnight and
then taper off from west to east during the late night hours.
Surface temperatures are likely to remain in the lower-middle 30s
(and above freezing) for much of the event.  So despite it snowing,
the relatively warm ground and expected surface temperatures will
likely limit overall accumulations...to mainly elevated and grassy
surfaces.  The best chances of snow accumulations would be along and
south of I-64...mainly in a swath from Owensboro to Somerset.  For
now, plan on going with an inch or less of accumulation.  However,
upcoming shifts will need to monitor upstream data and later runs to
see if additional changes to the forecast will be required.

For Thursday, some lingering snow flurries will be possible in the
morning before skies start to clear in the afternoon from west to
east. It will be a cold Thanksgiving with highs only warming into
the mid-upper 30s across the region.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 247 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

The long term will begin Thursday night with high pressure building
in from the west. Temperatures will be chilly with lows in the lower
to mid 20s. The high pressure will shift east of the area Friday
bringing a return to southerly winds.

Southerly flow will continue into the weekend as the high pressure
remains just off the eastern seaboard. Meanwhile, a low pressure
system will move out of the upper Midwest and across the Great Lakes
region. The cold front associated with this looks to slowly move
through Sunday night into Monday. With warm and moist air flowing
into the region ahead of this front, scattered showers will be
possible Saturday night and Sunday. The best chance for rain will
be Sunday night and Monday as the front moves through. A few showers
may hang around Monday night as the front continues to slowly sink
southward. However, Tuesday itself looks to be dry with high
pressure ridging in from the north.

Temperatures will warm quite nicely this weekend. While highs on
Friday will be in the 40s, by Sunday they look to top out in the
lower 60s. Lows Sunday morning will fall only into the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Temperatures Monday will be tricky with the cold front
moving through and cooler air filtering in behind it. At least a
part of the area should see some warming through the day, however.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 260800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

PRECIPITATION ONSET ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AS THE EAST COAST WEATHER SYSTEM WE
FORECAST IS TRACKING A BIT FURTHER TO OUR EAST. THE LATEST MODEL
DATA STILL SUGGESTS...HOWEVER...THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOW WILL
STILL FALL IN OUR HIGH TERRAIN COUNTIES ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST WEST OF THERE
BETWEEN 9 AND 15Z THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO OUR EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SHOULD FINALLY EXIT THE AREA
COMPLETELY BETWEEN 19 AND 20Z TODAY. AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING
A SECOND ROUND OF RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW TO OUR AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA IS SUGGESTING THIS SECOND
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE WARMER THAN THE ONE THAT WILL BRING SNOW TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING...WHICH IS WHY A RAIN SNOW MIX WAS FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE DERIVED FROM
THE LATEST CONSMOS DATA AND SHOULD RISE QUICKLY TO QUICKLY MELT OFF
ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL AROUND THE AREA THIS MORNING. TODAYS HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO KEEP THURSDAYS HIGHS FROM WARMING TO TODAYS FORECAST
HIGHS...SO MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY SHOULD ONLY MAKE IT TO AROUND 40.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

ZONAL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARMER AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT ON DEVELOPING SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS WEEKEND..ALLOWING FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN
SEEMS TO SUGGEST IT MAY STAY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THIS RAIN WILL ONLY STAY NORTH FOR SO LONG. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT DEVELOPING AND PUSHING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MORE PERSISTENT
LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE
CERTAINLY GOING HIGHER WITH POPS...BUT MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SOMEWHAT LOW. GIVEN THE PATTERN...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST PLACES WILL SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION TO START THE WEEK. IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS
SHOULD DRY OUT HEADING INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF PUSHES
ANOTHER TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...SUGGESTING ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN. WHILE
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD FEATURE TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH
WILL BE A NICE CHANGE OF PACE...AND ALSO HELP TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION ALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1229 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 7Z.
AFTER THAT THE AIRPORTS WILL BEGIN TO EXPERIENCES MVFR CIGS AS LOW
LEVEL CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE COLDER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT
AND CHANGES ALL PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW. THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AT JKL AND SJS. ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS...SOME FOG MAY ALSO FORM
AT JKL AND SJS. THE COMBINATION OF BOTH PHENOMENA COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR OR EVEN LIFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH AIRPORTS. LOZ
WILL BE ON THE FURTHERS WESTERN EXTEND OF ANY PRECIPITATION...AND
SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT WORST IN WHATEVER PRECIPITATION
IS ABLE TO AFFECT THAT AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...SME LOOKS TO BE IN THE
CLEAR AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED...BUT COULD EXPERIENCE
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR FOG...ALSO THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDING AT THE AFFECTED AIRPORTS BETWEEN
11 AND 13Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH BROKEN
TO OVERCAST COVERAGE EXPECTED EVEN AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR KYZ087-088-110-
113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 260508
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

We will continue to enjoy quiet weather tonight.  The forecast is in
good shape and no major changes are needed.

Taking a quick peek ahead to tomorrow night`s clipper...  Over its
last five runs the GFS has trended slower with onset in the west,
and over its past three runs has suppressed the main precipitation
farther south into southern Kentucky.  The entire region will still
probably see some precipitation, but the best chances appear to be
concentrating over the southern half of Kentucky.  The system will
be weakening as it enters the region.

The precipitation will begin as light rain in the evening before
transitioning to light snow for the overnight hours.  The ground
will be warm (and possibly wet) after having experienced afternoon
air temperatures peaking in the middle 40s.  Also, near-surface
temperatures through the night will mostly be in the middle 30s,
possibly dipping into the lower 30s by morning.  So, even areas that
do get several hours of light snow should see minimal impact.
Overall most locations should see less than an inch and mostly in
grassy areas.  Of course, if a narrow band develops and trains from
northwest to southeast, then locally higher amounts could be
realized.

The most likely timing for any accumulating snow will be between
midnight and dawn, which is another factor leading to the thinking
that impact from this system will not be great.

Of course, winter weather can change quickly, so be sure to keep up
with the latest forecasts, especially if you`re planning to travel
Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260508
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1007 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

We will continue to enjoy quiet weather tonight.  The forecast is in
good shape and no major changes are needed.

Taking a quick peek ahead to tomorrow night`s clipper...  Over its
last five runs the GFS has trended slower with onset in the west,
and over its past three runs has suppressed the main precipitation
farther south into southern Kentucky.  The entire region will still
probably see some precipitation, but the best chances appear to be
concentrating over the southern half of Kentucky.  The system will
be weakening as it enters the region.

The precipitation will begin as light rain in the evening before
transitioning to light snow for the overnight hours.  The ground
will be warm (and possibly wet) after having experienced afternoon
air temperatures peaking in the middle 40s.  Also, near-surface
temperatures through the night will mostly be in the middle 30s,
possibly dipping into the lower 30s by morning.  So, even areas that
do get several hours of light snow should see minimal impact.
Overall most locations should see less than an inch and mostly in
grassy areas.  Of course, if a narrow band develops and trains from
northwest to southeast, then locally higher amounts could be
realized.

The most likely timing for any accumulating snow will be between
midnight and dawn, which is another factor leading to the thinking
that impact from this system will not be great.

Of course, winter weather can change quickly, so be sure to keep up
with the latest forecasts, especially if you`re planning to travel
Wednesday night.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 302 PM EST TUE Nov 25 2014

...Wintry mix possible late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features broad troughing across
much of the CONUS, making for temperatures continuing to run below
normal.  A clipper system will dive southeast through the trough
aloft tomorrow into tomorrow night, bringing the potential for a
wintry mix to portions of the region.

Conditions will remain tranquil tonight as high pressure settles
into the region.  High clouds passing across portions of eastern KY
will likely help keep temperatures up a bit there, otherwise most
other locations should dip into the mid and upper 20s.

Wednesday will start off dry as high pressure slowly drifts east of
the region.  However, attention will quickly turn to the northwest
as a clipper system dives southeast through portions of the Midwest
and into the Ohio Valley.  The left-exit region of the upper jet
will help induce a tightening mid-level thermal gradient, which
should lead to a frontogenetically induced band of precipitation.

The main forecast challenge will be both with the exact track of
this narrow precip band, along with the thermal profiles beneath
it.  The latest guidance continues its trend of dipping the bulk of
the precipitation further south into central and southern KY.  This
is not a huge surprise given that this northward placement is a
known bias in most numerical guidance.  With better convergence of
the model solutions, have gone ahead and upped pops across portions
of southern KY, while dropping them slightly for portions of
southern IN/northern KY.  The hardest challenge with this event will
be low-level thermal profiles.  The good news is that it appears
surface wet bulb temperatures will remain above zero through the
event.  However, if we get heavy enough rates, it could wet bulb the
column down just enough to set up a very narrow band of moderate
snow.  Looking at the forcing, it appears to be weakening as it
enters the Ohio Valley, given a weakening upper-level jet structure
and the fgen response.  Therefore, while a band of moderate
precipitation will likely still move across portions of
central/southern KY, not sold it will be long-lived enough to wet
bulb the column and give widespread snow.  Given the surface low
will also be weakening as it moves into the region, surface cold air
advection will likely not play too much of a role either.

Bottom line is that this event will start as rain and remain mostly
as rain.  However, rates may become just enough to wet bulb the
column and allow for some wet snow to mix in.  If this does occur, a
moderate burst of snow could drop a few tenths of an inch of
accumulation briefly, before melting again once rates decrease.
All-in-all, not much, if any, impacts are expected from this event.

Ahead of the system, highs will climb into the low to mid 40s
tomorrow (warming ground/road temps ahead of this event).  Behind
this system, overnight lows tomorrow night will dip into the upper
20s and lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2014

Thanksgiving Day may just be the coldest day of the long term.
Models had been divergent on a cold front coming into the region for
the weekend, but now they stall the front to our north Saturday and
Sunday before slowly pushing it through at some point early next
work week. That will mean an above normal forecast for temperatures
this weekend, but also a better chance for rains starting Saturday
night. The front will be to our north, but warm/moist air riding
near that front would promote showers and storms over an extended
period of time, at least into Monday. A lot will depend on the
location of that front Monday and Tuesday, so will lean towards
climatology and start decreasing pops by Day 7 (Tuesday).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1207 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

VFR conditions are expected overnight as we will remain in between
weather systems.  High ceilings are expected along and east of I-65
overnight as well advertised east coast storm gets organized and
moves northeast.  These high clouds will move out toward morning.
Winds overnight are expected to be light and variable at KBWG with
a light northeasterly wind at KSDF and KLEX.  Next weather system
will be a fast moving clipper that will dive into the region from
the west later today.  This will bring clouds to the region by
evening with rain showers moving into areas mainly west of I-65 by
evening.  A relatively warm boundary layer will keep precipitation
in the form of rain at the start of the event, but colder air
flowing in behind the system will result in change over to snow by
Thursday morning.  More details on tonight`s system will be
forthcoming in the 26/12Z TAF package later this morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 260437
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1137 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO INCREASED THE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY IN THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA...BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE RETURNS.
CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS UPDATE AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS. THE
LATEST NAM12 SEEMS TO HAVE COME IN WITH SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIP THAN
THAT OF THE 18Z RUN...WHICH SEEMS TO ACTUALLY MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN
THE STRONG UPTICK IN MOISTURE AT 18Z /SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
ERRONEOUS/. EVEN MORE CONFUSING IS THE LATEST HRRR RUN WHICH IS STILL ONLY
BRINGING PRECIP INTO PIKE AND LETCHER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA REMAINS DRY. THIS SEEMS A BIT EXTREME AS WELL IN
COMPARISON TO THE 6 HOURS MODELS. GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY...ENDED
UP JUST KEEPING SNOW TOTALS THE SAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES INTO THE
REGION...THIS WILL BE THE TIME TO ASSESS THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO THAT OF THE MODEL RUNS...AND ADJUST AMOUNTS /QFP AND
SNOW/ UP OR DOWN AS NEEDED. FORECASTED TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE FREEZING LINE. ANY SHIFT A COUPLE DIRECTIONS ONE
WAY OR ANOTHER COULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MORE OR LESS SNOW IN
A PARTICULAR LOCATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 725 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

DID AN UPDATED MAINLY TO FRESHEN UP THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST
OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BUMPED UP THE SKY COVER QUICKER THROUGH THE
EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD IN QUICKLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
18Z RUNS HAVE COME IN WITH BEEFIER THOUGHTS ON SNOW AS BOTH THE GFS
AND NAM12 TAKE THE PCPN FURTHER WEST. THE GFS SEEMS TOO WARM AT THE
SFC FOR MUCH SNOW OR ACCUMULATION FOR LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF OUR
CURRENT ADVISORY WITH ITS LATEST RUN. THE NAM12...ON THE OTHER
HAND...APPEARS TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE QPF AND THEREFORE SNOW OVER OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF FACTORS THAT WOULD HAMPER
THIS OCCURRENCE WITH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH CUTTING OFF SOME OF THE
BEST MOISTURE FROM BEING TRANSPORTED INTO KENTUCKY AS CLEANLY AS
ENVISIONED BY THE OFF SYNOPTIC TIME RUN. NEVERTHELESS WILL BE
MONITORING THE RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR SIGNS THAT THE
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. TO THAT THOUGHT...THE LATEST HRRR
RUNS HAVE TRENDED ITS PCPN SHIELD FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL
A FAR CRY FROM THE 6 HOURLY MODELS. THE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT
TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVER FAR EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL INFLUENCING THE WEATHER OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS PROVIDED PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS. THESE
CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH GOOD DRYING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS SENT
TEMPERATURES WELL UP INTO THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 64 ARE LAGGING IN THE UPPER 40S. OF
NOTE ON THE SFC CHART IS AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
NORTHERN FLORIDA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SEABOARD.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THEY ALL TAKE A STRONG SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY BOTTOMING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...A
COMPACT WAVE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF
THIS BUT THE CORE OF THE ENERGY IS FURTHER SOUTH IN THE NAM...
ECMWF...AND GEM WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS. WILL FAVOR THIS MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK AS SEEN IN THE CONSENSUS. IN GENERAL HAVE LEANED MOST
CLOSELY TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS OF THE NAM12 AND HRRR...
THOUGH THE HRRR PCPN FIELDS SEEM TOO FAR SOUTHEAST AND SLOW LATER
TONIGHT.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUICK INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE LATER THIS
EVENING. LOWER CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL START TO SPILL OVER THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS AND MOVE INTO OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WET BULB DOWN WHEN THE PCPN MOVES IN
AND TRANSITION THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST BUT
EVENTUALLY DOWN IN THE VALLEYS...AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER WHERE AS MUCH AS A
QUARTER TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF LIQUID WILL LIKELY OCCUR. THIS WILL
PROBABLY AMOUNT TO BETWEEN TWO AND THREE INCHES OF WET SNOW IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ABOVE 2000 FEET AND AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
ELSEWHERE. HIGHER RIDGES BELOW 2000 FEET CAN EXPECT TO PICK UP
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE SET UP THIS AREA
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH NOON WEDNESDAY
FOR THIS PASSING EVENT. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE ADVISORY WILL ALSO ISSUE AN
SPS ADDRESSING THIS MARGINAL CONCERN. OTHERWISE...THE COASTAL PULLS
OUT LATER WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF VISIT BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR EAST
KENTUCKY IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...THE NEXT DEVELOPING LOW WORKS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER THAT NIGHT CARVING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES INTO DAWN THURSDAY. THIS TOO WILL BRING SOME RAIN OR SNOW
TO PARTS OF THE AREA WITH SOME SLUSHY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE MAINLY ON RIDGES AND GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR T/TD/WINDS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE SOME
MORE SIGNIFICANT TERRAIN BASED ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN
THE EXPECTED SNOW AREAS OF THE FAR EAST. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION WITH BEST POP CHANCES
ACROSS THE SE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH QPF THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY
AT THIS POINT. THIS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST ALLOWING FOR NW/W FLOW TO
SETUP ACROSS THE REGION AND THEREFORE HELD SLIGHT CHANCE IN FAR SE
INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT
THURSDAY AND GENERALLY CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST BRINGING RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EASTERN
KY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S SATURDAY. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WE DO PRESENT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE QUESTION REALLY BECOMES HOW QUICKLY DOES THIS
BOUNDARY MOVE SOUTH...THAT SAID THE 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
MOVING THIS FRONT SOUTH THAN THE 12Z GFS. RIGHT NOW WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL KEEP BLEND POPS FOR THE MOST PART BUT WOULD THINK
THESE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP ONCE MODELS COME INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT. SATURDAY HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S WITH TEMPERATURES MODIFYING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING THOUGH
CIGS WILL TAKE SHAPE AND START TO LOWER DOWN TO 10K FEET BY
MIDNIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MOISTURE AND
LOWER CLOUDS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT...WITH CIGS FALLING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE IN THE EAST BY 08Z. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE A GRADIENT IN THOSE LOWER CIGS WITH THE LOWEST (IFR/MVFR) IN THE
EAST...TRAILING BACK TO VFR IN THE WEST...THROUGH MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL ALSO SEE PRECIPITATION SPREAD INTO THE AREA...
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...AS A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW...LIKELY BECOMING ALL SNOW IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS SNOW WILL
RESTRICT VISIBILITIES LATER TONIGHT AS WELL...PARTICULARLY AT KSJS
WHERE VIS COULD BE BELOW A MILE AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.
THE SNOW AND ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL END FOR THE TAF SITES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ087-088-
110-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KPAH 260353
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
953 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

The primary forecast challenge in the near term is the Pre
Thanksgiving Day system...and whether or not it will yield any
wintry pcpn (snow). Its timing is ideal for an all liquid event,
as is the maintenance of lower trop southerlies thru the duration
of the pcpn event. Both these scenarios would suggest an otherwise
melting of falling pcpn to liquid by the time it reaches the
ground largely in the 15z Wed thru 03Z Thu time frame.

In concert with this thinking, WWD graphic shows 1" approaching
but not intruding into our northwest CWA, and then, departing but
not expanding from our southeast CWA.

The key will be if there is any change to the current modeling in
timing of the system that keeps it all (or mostly all) liquid for
us. If this occurs, or the track goes a little further south, then
we would anticipate a light dusting possible, esp for northern,
and far eastern (northeastern) counties mainly Wed evening.
However again, the trending of the models suggests this scenario
playing out is trending the opposite direction (i.e. not playing
out).

As a result, we`ll keep a nearly all liquid event but be mindful
of the aforementioned and monitor its progress and subsequent
modeling. Before and after the event are apropos with little
change to the going forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

Models remain relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average through Monday.

The period will start off cold Friday morning with northwest flow
between an upper level trough in the east and ridging out west.
However, a substantial modification in temperatures will transpire
Friday into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal and
low level winds shift to southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend looks
to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid moistening
of the atmosphere below 800 mb. With the abundant low level moisture
and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle activity will
be possible Saturday night into Sunday. Highs will average in the
upper 50s to lower 60s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.

Some uncertainty creeps into the forecast by Monday night and
Tuesday. The ECMWF indicates a brief return to dry weather while the
GFS suggests light rain or drizzle will continue to be possible.
Collaborative consensus with neighboring offices was to keep the
initialized blend in tact--retaining a slight chance of light rain
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

VFR conditions will persist tonight through Wednesday morning.
Wednesday afternoon cigs will lower, with precip developing rapidly
across the region. Should be all rain at KPAH and KCGI, with low end
MVFR forecast for now, though limited IFR may have to be introduced.
Latest data suggest a mix or snow change over toward dark (00z or
so) farther NE toward KEVV and KOWB. Have that mix mention in as a
result. Light wind forecast overall, straight forward in the next
set of TAFs.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$










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