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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270842
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Ill-defined frontal boundary still slated to shift south across
the forecast area today as H50 flow gradually becomes more
northwesterly with time. Will need to continue mention
shower/thunderstorm chcs, esp over se MO and wrn KY today as the
front presses south and a weak short wave drifts se into the mid
MS River Valley. However, weak wind fields aloft should preclude
much of a severe risk.

By later today/tonight, dry conditions will return as high
pressure build s in from the north. Models continue to indicate a
weak secondary impulse dropping se into the region on Tues, but
think this will be quite moisture starved and should have little
impact other than an increase in mid clouds and perhaps an
isolated shower or few light sprinkles west of the MS River
tomorrow afternoon.

The brunt of the change to cooler and less humid conditions will
be felt on Wednesday as the Canadian high pressure system slips
southeast into the mid MS River and lower OH Valley regions. Max
temps Wed will likely stay in the upper 70s/lower 80s despite
nearly full sunshine. Will probably see mid 50s to near 60 for
lows Wed night. Rare free late June air conditioning courtesy of
Mother Nature.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM
CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A western ridge/eastern trof pattern in the mid levels will continue
across the CONUS in the extended forecast period. Some timing/
intensity differences existed among the medium range models, but the
consensus is that scattered showers and tstms should increasingly
become common in the PAH forecast area starting early Friday.
Shortwave energy in the cyclonic flow aloft, centered in southern
Canada/the Great Lakes, is forecast to drag a surface frontal
boundary into our vicinity by then. At this time, the boundary is
progged to stall over our area for much of the weekend.

Heavy rainfall could be a factor then, as isentropic lift of moist
air over the boundary, combined with mid level vorticity maximums
moving through, should continue until late Sunday, after which
rainfall should wane from north to south as the mid/upper flow
begins to go anti-cyclonic and the surface boundary moves southward
into AR/TN.

Slightly cooler than average temps will be the rule during the
extended period, brought on by sustained lower thicknesses, but also
plentiful cloudiness, especially in the southern half of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be SHRA/TSRA activity with
possible MVFR cigs/vsbys generally through the first half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 270842
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Ill-defined frontal boundary still slated to shift south across
the forecast area today as H50 flow gradually becomes more
northwesterly with time. Will need to continue mention
shower/thunderstorm chcs, esp over se MO and wrn KY today as the
front presses south and a weak short wave drifts se into the mid
MS River Valley. However, weak wind fields aloft should preclude
much of a severe risk.

By later today/tonight, dry conditions will return as high
pressure build s in from the north. Models continue to indicate a
weak secondary impulse dropping se into the region on Tues, but
think this will be quite moisture starved and should have little
impact other than an increase in mid clouds and perhaps an
isolated shower or few light sprinkles west of the MS River
tomorrow afternoon.

The brunt of the change to cooler and less humid conditions will
be felt on Wednesday as the Canadian high pressure system slips
southeast into the mid MS River and lower OH Valley regions. Max
temps Wed will likely stay in the upper 70s/lower 80s despite
nearly full sunshine. Will probably see mid 50s to near 60 for
lows Wed night. Rare free late June air conditioning courtesy of
Mother Nature.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 307 AM
CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A western ridge/eastern trof pattern in the mid levels will continue
across the CONUS in the extended forecast period. Some timing/
intensity differences existed among the medium range models, but the
consensus is that scattered showers and tstms should increasingly
become common in the PAH forecast area starting early Friday.
Shortwave energy in the cyclonic flow aloft, centered in southern
Canada/the Great Lakes, is forecast to drag a surface frontal
boundary into our vicinity by then. At this time, the boundary is
progged to stall over our area for much of the weekend.

Heavy rainfall could be a factor then, as isentropic lift of moist
air over the boundary, combined with mid level vorticity maximums
moving through, should continue until late Sunday, after which
rainfall should wane from north to south as the mid/upper flow
begins to go anti-cyclonic and the surface boundary moves southward
into AR/TN.

Slightly cooler than average temps will be the rule during the
extended period, brought on by sustained lower thicknesses, but also
plentiful cloudiness, especially in the southern half of the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be SHRA/TSRA activity with
possible MVFR cigs/vsbys generally through the first half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP



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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270759
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The latest surface map features a weak quasi-stationary boundary
aligned from the eastern Great Lakes down to the Oklahoma
panhandle. High pressure is centered across the western Atlantic,
with surface ridging nosed in across Delmarva and into the
southern Appalachians. Aloft, the upper level ridge center remains
across Lousiana, with an upper level low moving across central Ontario,
allowing for cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes.

Organized overnight convection out ahead of the surface front has
all but died off, with still some scattered activity occurring
across the Cumberland Plateau and eastward across Tennessee,
thanks to passing outflow boundaries and orographics. Eastern
Kentucky has remained fairly quiet overnight, besides a few
showers and thunderstorms affecting locations west of I-75 as well
as north of the Mountain Parkway earlier. A very muggy air mass is
in place, with current temperatures ranging from the low to mid
70s.

A weak short wave trough will traverse the cyclonic flow across
the Great Lakes today, allowing for some weak forcing into the
Ohio Valley. This will also help push the surface front southeast
towards the Commonwealth today. Expect numerous to widespread
showers and thunderstorms to blossom across the area, especially
between 15 and 21z. PWATs of near or just above 2 inches continue
to be supported, with moderate instability in place. Will continue
to highlight the possibility of isolated flash flooding as well as
strong wind gusts, especially if some storms can undergo
precipitation loading. Storm motions will be around 10 kts today;
however, the direction also veers with time during the day,
allowing for less of a threat of storms aligning parallel with the
surface boundary, cutting down on the training potential somewhat.

Convection will wind down from northwest to southeast late this
afternoon into this evening. Highs today will be hampered by cloud
cover, generally peaking in the mid 80s. A few upper 80s will be
possible in the northwest late in the day, if clouds can thin
enough. A few spots in the far southeast may also peak in the
upper 80s before convection initiates. Lows tonight will get down
into the mid 60s, with at least some patchy fog likely.

On Tuesday, a secondary cold front and mid to upper level short
wave trough will be moving through the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
Will maintain slight chance pops in the southeast, where enough
low level moisture may linger to allow for a few pop ups during
peak heating. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 80s, although
dew points will be thankfully dropping into the low to mid 60s in
the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

The extended period will start with a few showers and storms
lingering along the Virginia and West Virginia borders, as a cold
front moves off to the east of the area. By early Tuesday evening
eastern Kentucky should be rain free. The rest of the week will
feature a drier and cooler period from Tuesday night through
Friday, as a strong ridge of high pressure settles over the
region. The residents of eastern Kentucky can expect near normal
or slightly below normal temperatures, mostly sunny to partly
cloudy skies, and light winds for the middle part of the week. The
next chance good chance of rain in the extended is expected to
arrive Friday afternoon, as an ill defined frontal boundary drifts
across the area. This boundary will be the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through late Sunday
night. The precipitation should gradually taper off as the front
drifts slowly off to the south and east. Valley fog will also be
possible each night in the moist conditions, particularly near
bodies of water. Temperatures throughout the week are expected to
max out in the low to mid 80s each day except Wednesday, when a
cooler air mass will only allow the mercury to max out in the
upper 70s for most of the area. Overnight lows will be in the 50s
and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Some patchy fog will allow for some MVFR or worse visibilities
overnight, mainly in the deeper river valleys. Did allow for a
small window of this at KSME between 10 and 13z. Most convection
looks to steer clear of the TAF sites through dawn. Precipitation
chances will ramp up during the day, with the best chances
occurring from late morning through the mid-afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This is still a bit early to
try to nail down more exact timing at a given location, so will
stick with VCTS for now. Will refine this timing down a bit more
for the 12z TAF issuance. Convection will gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast by late this afternoon in the early evening
hours. Will generally maintain VFR conditions thereafter; however,
fog may become an issue if there is more substantial clearing late
tonight.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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000
FXUS63 KLMK 270700
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A surface analysis as of early morning showed several boundaries
across central Kentucky and southern Indiana while a more pronounced
surface front was across central Illinois and Indiana. Conditions
were quite muggy with dewpoints in the low 70s. Regional radar
also showed isolated showers with embedded thunder across portions
of the area. This activity has been slowly drifting to the south
and east.

For today, the aforementioned surface front will drop through the
entire area pushing south of the Tennessee border by mid evening.
Ahead of this boundary, the air mass will remain quite humid
characterized by PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. As temperatures
top out in the mid 80s to near 90 today, ample instability will
develop. The weak surface convergence associated with the front
along with weak height falls on the periphery of the upper level
trough will provide forcing for ascent for storm development.
However, deep layer shear is weak so storm organization is expected
to be pulse. Locally strong storms will be possible south of the KY
Parkways and around the Lake Cumberland area mid/late afternoon
before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. North
of the KY Parkways, precipitation chances are less as the bulk of
the front should pass through before convective temperatures are
reached.

A north wind shift later this evening and tonight will slowly bring
drier air into the region. Plan on lows to be in the mid 60s to near
70. The dry air push begins in earnest on Tuesday and plan on highs
in the mid 80s. A passing upper level shortwave through the lower
Great Lakes will bring a reinforcing shot of dry air with another
surface front passage. Limited moisture pooling ahead of it will
keep the forecast dry for now.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

...Low Humidity and Pleasant Summer Weather Mid/Late Week...

The main forecast highlights in the long term are the pleasant, low
humidity days expected Wednesday through Friday followed by a return
to thunderstorm chances and higher humidity this upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be under the influence of
upper level troughing and surface high pressure. The air mass will
anomalously dry with PWATs running below 1 inch, and this will
provide a couple of very pleasant, dry days for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. Plan on highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Wednesday and 80-85 on Thursday. Morning lows will be a few degrees
either side of 60.

For this upcoming weekend, the upper level pattern will flatten out
allowing several disturbances to pass from the central Plains to the
TN/OH Valley. At the surface, higher moisture content returns with
dewpoints back in the upper 60s to low 70s and PWATs 1.3 to 1.8
inches. A west/east surface front may stall out across the area
which could be the focus for a couple rounds of showers and storms.
The greatest chances look to be late Saturday into Saturday night,
possibly lingering into the first part of Sunday. The clouds and
threat of rain will keep high temperatures held in the low/mid 80s
with mild/muggy lows in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A gust front that brought 26kt winds to SDF is continuing to push to
the south and east as indicated by radar. Attempted to time this
wind shift into BWG and LEX, allowing for a slight reduction in
forward motion of the boundary and also in wind velocities
associated with it.

A weak, broad surface trough will slip southward through Kentucky
today. VCSH will accompany the trough this morning at SDF and LEX,
and into this afternoon at BWG. LEX and especially BWG could see
some thunder with this feature. The best chance for any thunder at
SDF will be around or just after sunrise.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270700
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 243 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A surface analysis as of early morning showed several boundaries
across central Kentucky and southern Indiana while a more pronounced
surface front was across central Illinois and Indiana. Conditions
were quite muggy with dewpoints in the low 70s. Regional radar
also showed isolated showers with embedded thunder across portions
of the area. This activity has been slowly drifting to the south
and east.

For today, the aforementioned surface front will drop through the
entire area pushing south of the Tennessee border by mid evening.
Ahead of this boundary, the air mass will remain quite humid
characterized by PWATs in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range. As temperatures
top out in the mid 80s to near 90 today, ample instability will
develop. The weak surface convergence associated with the front
along with weak height falls on the periphery of the upper level
trough will provide forcing for ascent for storm development.
However, deep layer shear is weak so storm organization is expected
to be pulse. Locally strong storms will be possible south of the KY
Parkways and around the Lake Cumberland area mid/late afternoon
before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. North
of the KY Parkways, precipitation chances are less as the bulk of
the front should pass through before convective temperatures are
reached.

A north wind shift later this evening and tonight will slowly bring
drier air into the region. Plan on lows to be in the mid 60s to near
70. The dry air push begins in earnest on Tuesday and plan on highs
in the mid 80s. A passing upper level shortwave through the lower
Great Lakes will bring a reinforcing shot of dry air with another
surface front passage. Limited moisture pooling ahead of it will
keep the forecast dry for now.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

...Low Humidity and Pleasant Summer Weather Mid/Late Week...

The main forecast highlights in the long term are the pleasant, low
humidity days expected Wednesday through Friday followed by a return
to thunderstorm chances and higher humidity this upcoming weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday are expected to be under the influence of
upper level troughing and surface high pressure. The air mass will
anomalously dry with PWATs running below 1 inch, and this will
provide a couple of very pleasant, dry days for southern Indiana and
central Kentucky. Plan on highs in the upper 70s to low 80s on
Wednesday and 80-85 on Thursday. Morning lows will be a few degrees
either side of 60.

For this upcoming weekend, the upper level pattern will flatten out
allowing several disturbances to pass from the central Plains to the
TN/OH Valley. At the surface, higher moisture content returns with
dewpoints back in the upper 60s to low 70s and PWATs 1.3 to 1.8
inches. A west/east surface front may stall out across the area
which could be the focus for a couple rounds of showers and storms.
The greatest chances look to be late Saturday into Saturday night,
possibly lingering into the first part of Sunday. The clouds and
threat of rain will keep high temperatures held in the low/mid 80s
with mild/muggy lows in the mid/upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A gust front that brought 26kt winds to SDF is continuing to push to
the south and east as indicated by radar. Attempted to time this
wind shift into BWG and LEX, allowing for a slight reduction in
forward motion of the boundary and also in wind velocities
associated with it.

A weak, broad surface trough will slip southward through Kentucky
today. VCSH will accompany the trough this morning at SDF and LEX,
and into this afternoon at BWG. LEX and especially BWG could see
some thunder with this feature. The best chance for any thunder at
SDF will be around or just after sunrise.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270545 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are encroaching on our
area from the west, as well as popping up across northeastern
Kentucky. The latest IR satellite shows warming cloud tops, with
outflow boundaries likely weakening as they attempt to make it in
from the northwest. Still, have included some isolated pops
through the night out west and also generally along and north of
the Mountain Parkway to account for any temporary build ups. Lows
around a balmy 70 degrees still look on target. Did make a few
tweaks to account for the latest trends in observations. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Just some minor tweaks to temperatures with this update as
forecast looks on track. A few showers/storms are developing out
in central Kentucky, just north of Glasgow, but not expecting
these storms to make it into our area with any movement on these
storms very slow. Very little steering flow to push these storms
east. Activity to the northwest continues to break up as expected
and that trend is expected to continue based on latest hi-res
model output.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Outside of a few rogue storms popping up to our southeast and
west, the evening is shaping up to be quiet. Earlier activity
across central Kentucky has died off just before it worked into
our forecast area. Watching convection to our northwest. HRRR
continues to show this line weakening as it loses the instability
overnight. Thus, not expecting the line in its current form to
make it this far south. Thus, trimmed back pops a bit through the
overnight hours. As the front pushes south tomorrow morning,
instability should build ahead of the boundary with more robust
convection developing after daybreak Monday. As far as cloud
cover, cut back on it overnight as well with the lack of organized
features. Should see plenty of clearing tonight allowing for a
small ridge valley split.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Some patchy fog will allow for some MVFR or worse visibilities
overnight, mainly in the deeper river valleys. Did allow for a
small window of this at KSME between 10 and 13z. Most convection
looks to steer clear of the TAF sites through dawn. Precipitation
chances will ramp up during the day, with the best chances
occurring from late morning through the mid-afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This is still a bit early to
try to nail down more exact timing at a given location, so will
stick with VCTS for now. Will refine this timing down a bit more
for the 12z TAF issuance. Convection will gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast by late this afternoon in the early evening
hours. Will generally maintain VFR conditions thereafter; however,
fog may become an issue if there is more substantial clearing late
tonight.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270545 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are encroaching on our
area from the west, as well as popping up across northeastern
Kentucky. The latest IR satellite shows warming cloud tops, with
outflow boundaries likely weakening as they attempt to make it in
from the northwest. Still, have included some isolated pops
through the night out west and also generally along and north of
the Mountain Parkway to account for any temporary build ups. Lows
around a balmy 70 degrees still look on target. Did make a few
tweaks to account for the latest trends in observations. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Just some minor tweaks to temperatures with this update as
forecast looks on track. A few showers/storms are developing out
in central Kentucky, just north of Glasgow, but not expecting
these storms to make it into our area with any movement on these
storms very slow. Very little steering flow to push these storms
east. Activity to the northwest continues to break up as expected
and that trend is expected to continue based on latest hi-res
model output.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Outside of a few rogue storms popping up to our southeast and
west, the evening is shaping up to be quiet. Earlier activity
across central Kentucky has died off just before it worked into
our forecast area. Watching convection to our northwest. HRRR
continues to show this line weakening as it loses the instability
overnight. Thus, not expecting the line in its current form to
make it this far south. Thus, trimmed back pops a bit through the
overnight hours. As the front pushes south tomorrow morning,
instability should build ahead of the boundary with more robust
convection developing after daybreak Monday. As far as cloud
cover, cut back on it overnight as well with the lack of organized
features. Should see plenty of clearing tonight allowing for a
small ridge valley split.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

Some patchy fog will allow for some MVFR or worse visibilities
overnight, mainly in the deeper river valleys. Did allow for a
small window of this at KSME between 10 and 13z. Most convection
looks to steer clear of the TAF sites through dawn. Precipitation
chances will ramp up during the day, with the best chances
occurring from late morning through the mid-afternoon as a cold
front approaches from the northwest. This is still a bit early to
try to nail down more exact timing at a given location, so will
stick with VCTS for now. Will refine this timing down a bit more
for the 12z TAF issuance. Convection will gradually diminish from
northwest to southeast by late this afternoon in the early evening
hours. Will generally maintain VFR conditions thereafter; however,
fog may become an issue if there is more substantial clearing late
tonight.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270534
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
134 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated afternoon convection over central Kentucky has dissipated,
and the rest of the evening should be dry. Fairly solid line of
convection along the front, currently draped across central Illinois
and Indiana just north of I-70. Expect these storms to scatter our
or perhaps dissipate after the sun goes down. Still will carry
chance POPs well after midnight for whatever storms do survive.
Forecast updated to clean up pre-1st period wording.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Now - Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed over
portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The airmass is
quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps in the low
90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with marginal mid level
lapse rates. The instability is just about all the storms have going
for them however as weak atmpospheric flow and the lack of any
focused trigger will keep things disorganized through the afternoon.
So far, the stronger updrafts have displayed an ability to become a
bit gusty with small wind bursts displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX
WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a
few wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
will be a concern with any storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm
could occur if any updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow
boundaries, so will have to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Mon Jun 27 2016

A gust front that brought 26kt winds to SDF is continuing to push to
the south and east as indicated by radar. Attempted to time this
wind shift into BWG and LEX, allowing for a slight reduction in
forward motion of the boundary and also in wind velocities
associated with it.

A weak, broad surface trough will slip southward through Kentucky
today. VCSH will accompany the trough this morning at SDF and LEX,
and into this afternoon at BWG. LEX and especially BWG could see
some thunder with this feature. The best chance for any thunder at
SDF will be around or just after sunrise.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270502 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
102 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016

A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are encroaching on our
area from the west, as well as popping up across northeastern
Kentucky. The latest IR satellite shows warming cloud tops, with
outflow boundaries likely weakening as they attempt to make it in
from the northwest. Still, have included some isolated pops
through the night out west and also generally along and north of
the Mountain Parkway to account for any temporary build ups. Lows
around a balmy 70 degrees still look on target. Did make a few
tweaks to account for the latest trends in observations. Updates
have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1050 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Just some minor tweaks to temperatures with this update as
forecast looks on track. A few showers/storms are developing out
in central Kentucky, just north of Glasgow, but not expecting
these storms to make it into our area with any movement on these
storms very slow. Very little steering flow to push these storms
east. Activity to the northwest continues to break up as expected
and that trend is expected to continue based on latest hi-res
model output.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Outside of a few rogue storms popping up to our southeast and
west, the evening is shaping up to be quiet. Earlier activity
across central Kentucky has died off just before it worked into
our forecast area. Watching convection to our northwest. HRRR
continues to show this line weakening as it loses the instability
overnight. Thus, not expecting the line in its current form to
make it this far south. Thus, trimmed back pops a bit through the
overnight hours. As the front pushes south tomorrow morning,
instability should build ahead of the boundary with more robust
convection developing after daybreak Monday. As far as cloud
cover, cut back on it overnight as well with the lack of organized
features. Should see plenty of clearing tonight allowing for a
small ridge valley split.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the overnight hours. A cold
front will bring increasing shower/storm chances by mid to late
Monday morning for all of eastern Kentucky. Torrential rain is
likely with the storms, reducing visibilities. Showers and storms
will continue for much of the area into the early to mid afternoon
hours before exiting south. Thus, expect convection to gradually
decrease from north to south through Monday evening, with VFR
conditions returning.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 270436 AAD
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1136 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Expecting to lose some, if not all, of our convection with loss
of heating by early this evening. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected to increase in our north/northwest
counties late this evening with the approach of a cold front.
Surface observations currently show the front extending from
southern Lake Michigan into northeast Missouri and southeast
Kansas. Models show the front moving into northern portions of the
PAH forecast area around 06z Monday, then reaching the
Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders by around 18z
Monday. Most of the activity will be right along and ahead of the
front. This gives us the highest chances for our northern half of
counties late tonight, and our southern half from daybreak into
early afternoon. Overall models have been quite a bit overdone on
coverage the past couple of days, so kept precip chances at good
chance or lower due to expecting convection to be scattered in
nature. This may need some adjusting if the development is more
widespread.

By Monday night, dry conditions will return, then models show a
weak secondary cold front moving across the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. With little moisture left to work with, ECMWF and GFS
generate just some very light QPF, mainly in our west. Included
some slight chances for showers Tuesday afternoon along and west
of the Mississippi River.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy tonight and early Monday
ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
70 to 75 degree. Highs Monday will reach around 90 degrees, but
dew points will be dropping into the 60s across all but far
southern portions of the PAH forecast area Monday afternoon. Lows
Monday night will be in the upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday in
the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to middle 60s
will give us much more pleasant conditions. Lows Tuesday night in
the upper 50s to middle 60s will actually be several degrees below
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper-level pattern will generally remain in a ridge west/trough
east orientation throughout the extended portions of this forecast.
There is considerable variability amongst the available guidance in
the amplitude of this pattern, which will have an impact on the
timing and strength of disturbances in the cyclonic northwest flow
aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the forecast
area early Wednesday, and may be briefly interrupted by a weak cold
front associated with an upper-level disturbance at some point.
Right now, it appears that this is most likely sometime in the
Friday through Saturday time frame. The 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
both develop a surface low and try to push it eastward through the
region Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is much stronger and
has a swath of major QPF.

Given the uncertainties in timing impulses through the area, we will
have at least small chance PoPs over some portion of the area from
Thursday through Sunday. However, the primary emphasis right now is
on Friday night and Saturday, with a potential drying trend on
Sunday.

As for temperatures, we will start out a category or two below
normal Wednesday and slowly trend warmer into the weekend. Even over
the weekend temperatures will not quite reach normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be SHRA/TSRA activity with
possible MVFR cigs/vsbys generally through the first half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 270250
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1050 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Just some minor tweaks to temperatures with this update as
forecast looks on track. A few showers/storms are developing out
in central Kentucky, just north of Glasgow, but not expecting
these storms to make it into our area with any movement on these
storms very slow. Very little steering flow to push these storms
east. Activity to the northwest continues to break up as expected
and that trend is expected to continue based on latest hi-res
model output.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Outside of a few rogue storms popping up to our southeast and
west, the evening is shaping up to be quiet. Earlier activity
across central Kentucky has died off just before it worked into
our forecast area. Watching convection to our northwest. HRRR
continues to show this line weakening as it loses the instability
overnight. Thus, not expecting the line in its current form to
make it this far south. Thus, trimmed back pops a bit through the
overnight hours. As the front pushes south tomorrow morning,
instability should build ahead of the boundary with more robust
convection developing after daybreak Monday. As far as cloud
cover, cut back on it overnight as well with the lack of organized
features. Should see plenty of clearing tonight allowing for a
small ridge valley split.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the overnight hours. A cold
front will bring increasing shower/storm chances by mid to late
Monday morning for all of eastern Kentucky. Torrential rain is
likely with the storms, reducing visibilities. Showers and storms
will continue for much of the area into the early to mid afternoon
hours before exiting south. Thus, expect convection to gradually
decrease from north to south through Monday evening, with VFR
conditions returning.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 270239
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
939 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Convection having a difficult time developing any coherent
organization this evening. Top of radar detected outflow
boundaries have fallen from 6.5kft to 3.5kft in the past two
hours. There still remains a weak warm air advection profile
(veering wind field) below 3kft per regional radar wind profiles,
especially east of the Wabash/Ohio River that has been feeding
into the Southeast Illinois/Southwest Indiana outflow dominated
thunderstorm complex. Other thunderstorms over extreme southern
Illinois are developing on intersecting thunderstorm outflows from
late this afternoon in Missouri and Kentucky. Some evidence of
capping (warmer temperatures) aloft over West Tennessee, feeding
into Southwest KY, becoming weaker into the Pennyrile region of
West Kentucky. This may lead to a general increase in convection
over West Kentucky through midnight. Am not sure what is feeding
the south central Illinois isolated convection, with the exception
of a SW-NE oriented surface theta-e gradient and subtle dry air
aloft creating some parcel overturning.

The latest runs of the HRRR (CR version) depict the downward trend
of the coverage of thunderstorms and robust updrafts, but continue
to increase the coverage of showers over Southern Illinois from
now through 3 am CDT.

For now, have introduced a lower thunderstorm coverage versus
showers in gridded forecast package through midnight. May extend
that through early morning. Somewhat doubtful for any significant
severe potential overnight, but locally heavy rain will still be a
concern through midnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Expecting to lose some, if not all, of our convection with loss
of heating by early this evening. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected to increase in our north/northwest
counties late this evening with the approach of a cold front.
Surface observations currently show the front extending from
southern Lake Michigan into northeast Missouri and southeast
Kansas. Models show the front moving into northern portions of the
PAH forecast area around 06z Monday, then reaching the
Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders by around 18z
Monday. Most of the activity will be right along and ahead of the
front. This gives us the highest chances for our northern half of
counties late tonight, and our southern half from daybreak into
early afternoon. Overall models have been quite a bit overdone on
coverage the past couple of days, so kept precip chances at good
chance or lower due to expecting convection to be scattered in
nature. This may need some adjusting if the development is more
widespread.

By Monday night, dry conditions will return, then models show a
weak secondary cold front moving across the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. With little moisture left to work with, ECMWF and GFS
generate just some very light QPF, mainly in our west. Included
some slight chances for showers Tuesday afternoon along and west
of the Mississippi River.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy tonight and early Monday
ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
70 to 75 degree. Highs Monday will reach around 90 degrees, but
dew points will be dropping into the 60s across all but far
southern portions of the PAH forecast area Monday afternoon. Lows
Monday night will be in the upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday in
the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to middle 60s
will give us much more pleasant conditions. Lows Tuesday night in
the upper 50s to middle 60s will actually be several degrees below
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper-level pattern will generally remain in a ridge west/trough
east orientation throughout the extended portions of this forecast.
There is considerable variability amongst the available guidance in
the amplitude of this pattern, which will have an impact on the
timing and strength of disturbances in the cyclonic northwest flow
aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the forecast
area early Wednesday, and may be briefly interrupted by a weak cold
front associated with an upper-level disturbance at some point.
Right now, it appears that this is most likely sometime in the
Friday through Saturday time frame. The 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
both develop a surface low and try to push it eastward through the
region Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is much stronger and
has a swath of major QPF.

Given the uncertainties in timing impulses through the area, we will
have at least small chance PoPs over some portion of the area from
Thursday through Sunday. However, the primary emphasis right now is
on Friday night and Saturday, with a potential drying trend on
Sunday.

As for temperatures, we will start out a category or two below
normal Wednesday and slowly trend warmer into the weekend. Even over
the weekend temperatures will not quite reach normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be an increase in SHRA/TSRA
activity with possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Precipitation chances will
begin to diminish from the north starting in the last half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270000
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated afternoon convection over central Kentucky has dissipated,
and the rest of the evening should be dry. Fairly solid line of
convection along the front, currently draped across central Illinois
and Indiana just north of I-70. Expect these storms to scatter our
or perhaps dissipate after the sun goes down. Still will carry
chance POPs well after midnight for whatever storms do survive.
Forecast updated to clean up pre-1st period wording.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Now - Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed over
portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The airmass is
quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps in the low
90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with marginal mid level
lapse rates. The instability is just about all the storms have going
for them however as weak atmpospheric flow and the lack of any
focused trigger will keep things disorganized through the afternoon.
So far, the stronger updrafts have displayed an ability to become a
bit gusty with small wind bursts displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX
WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a
few wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
will be a concern with any storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm
could occur if any updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow
boundaries, so will have to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Afternoon convection was not much better than isolated coverage, and
has now just about dissipated. Decent amount of debris cloudiness
may provide a mid-level deck or even a cirrus ceiling, but otherwise
expecting no restrictions this evening with light/variable winds.

Line of convection across northern Indiana and central Illinois will
push SE, but will be dissipating, or at least scattering out by the
time it reaches SDF well after midnight. Given the diurnally less
favorable environment, the probabilities for precip seem a bit on
the low side, so our SHRA forecast may be a little generous. Will
still carry VCTS for a chunk of Monday morning even if we don`t go
with SHRA, with prevailing VFR conditions expected. Could see brief
reductions to MVFR, or even a little IFR if thunderstorms move over
any terminal.

Cold front will push through during the morning hours, with precip
shutoff ranging from late morning at SDF to mid afternoon at BWG.
Winds will come around to due north for the afternoon, with speeds
just shy of 10 kt. Will maintain a VFR low cu deck with trapped
moisture, and a cirrus ceiling.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 270000
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 755 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated afternoon convection over central Kentucky has dissipated,
and the rest of the evening should be dry. Fairly solid line of
convection along the front, currently draped across central Illinois
and Indiana just north of I-70. Expect these storms to scatter our
or perhaps dissipate after the sun goes down. Still will carry
chance POPs well after midnight for whatever storms do survive.
Forecast updated to clean up pre-1st period wording.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Now - Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed over
portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The airmass is
quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps in the low
90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with marginal mid level
lapse rates. The instability is just about all the storms have going
for them however as weak atmpospheric flow and the lack of any
focused trigger will keep things disorganized through the afternoon.
So far, the stronger updrafts have displayed an ability to become a
bit gusty with small wind bursts displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX
WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a
few wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
will be a concern with any storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm
could occur if any updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow
boundaries, so will have to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Afternoon convection was not much better than isolated coverage, and
has now just about dissipated. Decent amount of debris cloudiness
may provide a mid-level deck or even a cirrus ceiling, but otherwise
expecting no restrictions this evening with light/variable winds.

Line of convection across northern Indiana and central Illinois will
push SE, but will be dissipating, or at least scattering out by the
time it reaches SDF well after midnight. Given the diurnally less
favorable environment, the probabilities for precip seem a bit on
the low side, so our SHRA forecast may be a little generous. Will
still carry VCTS for a chunk of Monday morning even if we don`t go
with SHRA, with prevailing VFR conditions expected. Could see brief
reductions to MVFR, or even a little IFR if thunderstorms move over
any terminal.

Cold front will push through during the morning hours, with precip
shutoff ranging from late morning at SDF to mid afternoon at BWG.
Winds will come around to due north for the afternoon, with speeds
just shy of 10 kt. Will maintain a VFR low cu deck with trapped
moisture, and a cirrus ceiling.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....BJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 262358
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Outside of a few rogue storms popping up to our southeast and
west, the evening is shaping up to be quiet. Earlier activity
across central Kentucky has died off just before it worked into
our forecast area. Watching convection to our northwest. HRRR
continues to show this line weakening as it loses the instability
overnight. Thus, not expecting the line in its current form to
make it this far south. Thus, trimmed back pops a bit through the
overnight hours. As the front pushes south tomorrow morning,
instability should build ahead of the boundary with more robust
convection developing after daybreak Monday. As far as cloud
cover, cut back on it overnight as well with the lack of organized
features. Should see plenty of clearing tonight allowing for a
small ridge valley split.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the overnight hours. A cold
front will bring increasing shower/storm chances by mid to late
Monday morning for all of eastern Kentucky. Torrential rain is
likely with the storms, reducing visibilities. Showers and storms
will continue for much of the area into the early to mid afternoon
hours before exiting south. Thus, expect convection to gradually
decrease from north to south through Monday evening, with VFR
conditions returning.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 262358
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Outside of a few rogue storms popping up to our southeast and
west, the evening is shaping up to be quiet. Earlier activity
across central Kentucky has died off just before it worked into
our forecast area. Watching convection to our northwest. HRRR
continues to show this line weakening as it loses the instability
overnight. Thus, not expecting the line in its current form to
make it this far south. Thus, trimmed back pops a bit through the
overnight hours. As the front pushes south tomorrow morning,
instability should build ahead of the boundary with more robust
convection developing after daybreak Monday. As far as cloud
cover, cut back on it overnight as well with the lack of organized
features. Should see plenty of clearing tonight allowing for a
small ridge valley split.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the overnight hours. A cold
front will bring increasing shower/storm chances by mid to late
Monday morning for all of eastern Kentucky. Torrential rain is
likely with the storms, reducing visibilities. Showers and storms
will continue for much of the area into the early to mid afternoon
hours before exiting south. Thus, expect convection to gradually
decrease from north to south through Monday evening, with VFR
conditions returning.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 262330 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Expecting to lose some, if not all, of our convection with loss
of heating by early this evening. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected to increase in our north/northwest
counties late this evening with the approach of a cold front.
Surface observations currently show the front extending from
southern Lake Michigan into northeast Missouri and southeast
Kansas. Models show the front moving into northern portions of the
PAH forecast area around 06z Monday, then reaching the
Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders by around 18z
Monday. Most of the activity will be right along and ahead of the
front. This gives us the highest chances for our northern half of
counties late tonight, and our southern half from daybreak into
early afternoon. Overall models have been quite a bit overdone on
coverage the past couple of days, so kept precip chances at good
chance or lower due to expecting convection to be scattered in
nature. This may need some adjusting if the development is more
widespread.

By Monday night, dry conditions will return, then models show a
weak secondary cold front moving across the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. With little moisture left to work with, ECMWF and GFS
generate just some very light QPF, mainly in our west. Included
some slight chances for showers Tuesday afternoon along and west
of the Mississippi River.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy tonight and early Monday
ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
70 to 75 degree. Highs Monday will reach around 90 degrees, but
dew points will be dropping into the 60s across all but far
southern portions of the PAH forecast area Monday afternoon. Lows
Monday night will be in the upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday in
the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to middle 60s
will give us much more pleasant conditions. Lows Tuesday night in
the upper 50s to middle 60s will actually be several degrees below
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper-level pattern will generally remain in a ridge west/trough
east orientation throughout the extended portions of this forecast.
There is considerable variability amongst the available guidance in
the amplitude of this pattern, which will have an impact on the
timing and strength of disturbances in the cyclonic northwest flow
aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the forecast
area early Wednesday, and may be briefly interrupted by a weak cold
front associated with an upper-level disturbance at some point.
Right now, it appears that this is most likely sometime in the
Friday through Saturday time frame. The 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
both develop a surface low and try to push it eastward through the
region Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is much stronger and
has a swath of major QPF.

Given the uncertainties in timing impulses through the area, we will
have at least small chance PoPs over some portion of the area from
Thursday through Sunday. However, the primary emphasis right now is
on Friday night and Saturday, with a potential drying trend on
Sunday.

As for temperatures, we will start out a category or two below
normal Wednesday and slowly trend warmer into the weekend. Even over
the weekend temperatures will not quite reach normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be an increase in SHRA/TSRA
activity with possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Precipitation chances will
begin to diminish from the north starting in the last half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 262330 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
630 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Expecting to lose some, if not all, of our convection with loss
of heating by early this evening. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected to increase in our north/northwest
counties late this evening with the approach of a cold front.
Surface observations currently show the front extending from
southern Lake Michigan into northeast Missouri and southeast
Kansas. Models show the front moving into northern portions of the
PAH forecast area around 06z Monday, then reaching the
Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders by around 18z
Monday. Most of the activity will be right along and ahead of the
front. This gives us the highest chances for our northern half of
counties late tonight, and our southern half from daybreak into
early afternoon. Overall models have been quite a bit overdone on
coverage the past couple of days, so kept precip chances at good
chance or lower due to expecting convection to be scattered in
nature. This may need some adjusting if the development is more
widespread.

By Monday night, dry conditions will return, then models show a
weak secondary cold front moving across the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. With little moisture left to work with, ECMWF and GFS
generate just some very light QPF, mainly in our west. Included
some slight chances for showers Tuesday afternoon along and west
of the Mississippi River.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy tonight and early Monday
ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
70 to 75 degree. Highs Monday will reach around 90 degrees, but
dew points will be dropping into the 60s across all but far
southern portions of the PAH forecast area Monday afternoon. Lows
Monday night will be in the upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday in
the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to middle 60s
will give us much more pleasant conditions. Lows Tuesday night in
the upper 50s to middle 60s will actually be several degrees below
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper-level pattern will generally remain in a ridge west/trough
east orientation throughout the extended portions of this forecast.
There is considerable variability amongst the available guidance in
the amplitude of this pattern, which will have an impact on the
timing and strength of disturbances in the cyclonic northwest flow
aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the forecast
area early Wednesday, and may be briefly interrupted by a weak cold
front associated with an upper-level disturbance at some point.
Right now, it appears that this is most likely sometime in the
Friday through Saturday time frame. The 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
both develop a surface low and try to push it eastward through the
region Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is much stronger and
has a swath of major QPF.

Given the uncertainties in timing impulses through the area, we will
have at least small chance PoPs over some portion of the area from
Thursday through Sunday. However, the primary emphasis right now is
on Friday night and Saturday, with a potential drying trend on
Sunday.

As for temperatures, we will start out a category or two below
normal Wednesday and slowly trend warmer into the weekend. Even over
the weekend temperatures will not quite reach normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions for the most part through the period, however with
the approach of a front, there will be an increase in SHRA/TSRA
activity with possible MVFR cigs/vsbys. Precipitation chances will
begin to diminish from the north starting in the last half of the
period. Winds out of the southwest AOB 10 knots will swing around
to the north behind the front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 262304
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
704 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed
over portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The
airmass is quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps
in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with
marginal mid level lapse rates. The instability is just about all
the storms have going for them however as weak atmpospheric flow
and the lack of any focused trigger will keep things disorganized
through the afternoon. So far, the stronger updrafts have
displayed an ability to become a bit gusty with small wind bursts
displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only
in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a few wind gusts, brief heavy
rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will be a concern with any
storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm could occur if any
updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow boundaries, so will have
to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Afternoon convection was not much better than isolated coverage, and
has now just about dissipated. Decent amount of debris cloudiness
may provide a mid-level deck or even a cirrus ceiling, but otherwise
expecting no restrictions this evening with light/variable winds.

Line of convection across northern Indiana and central Illinois will
push SE, but will be dissipating, or at least scattering out by the
time it reaches SDF well after midnight. Given the diurnally less
favorable environment, the probabilities for precip seem a bit on
the low side, so our SHRA forecast may be a little generous. Will
still carry VCTS for a chunk of Monday morning even if we don`t go
with SHRA, with prevailing VFR conditions expected. Could see brief
reductions to MVFR, or even a little IFR if thunderstorms move over
any terminal.

Cold front will push through during the morning hours, with precip
shutoff ranging from late morning at SDF to mid afternoon at BWG.
Winds will come around to due north for the afternoon, with speeds
just shy of 10 kt. Will maintain a VFR low cu deck with trapped
moisture, and a cirrus ceiling.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 262304
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
704 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed
over portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The
airmass is quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps
in the low 90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with
marginal mid level lapse rates. The instability is just about all
the storms have going for them however as weak atmpospheric flow
and the lack of any focused trigger will keep things disorganized
through the afternoon. So far, the stronger updrafts have
displayed an ability to become a bit gusty with small wind bursts
displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only
in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a few wind gusts, brief heavy
rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will be a concern with any
storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm could occur if any
updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow boundaries, so will have
to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Afternoon convection was not much better than isolated coverage, and
has now just about dissipated. Decent amount of debris cloudiness
may provide a mid-level deck or even a cirrus ceiling, but otherwise
expecting no restrictions this evening with light/variable winds.

Line of convection across northern Indiana and central Illinois will
push SE, but will be dissipating, or at least scattering out by the
time it reaches SDF well after midnight. Given the diurnally less
favorable environment, the probabilities for precip seem a bit on
the low side, so our SHRA forecast may be a little generous. Will
still carry VCTS for a chunk of Monday morning even if we don`t go
with SHRA, with prevailing VFR conditions expected. Could see brief
reductions to MVFR, or even a little IFR if thunderstorms move over
any terminal.

Cold front will push through during the morning hours, with precip
shutoff ranging from late morning at SDF to mid afternoon at BWG.
Winds will come around to due north for the afternoon, with speeds
just shy of 10 kt. Will maintain a VFR low cu deck with trapped
moisture, and a cirrus ceiling.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 262054
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 454 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The initial cold front of the short term period should be to our
southeast by Tuesday morning, along with its precip. A secondary
cold front dropping southeast through the Midwest is expected to
move through our local area on Tuesday and Tuesday evening.
However, forecast models disagree on the extent of drying which
will occur with the first front. The GFS and ECMWF both show the
most significant drop in dew points occurring with the first
front, while the NAM holds onto much more low level moisture until
the second front passes. That being the case, the NAM develops
substantial instability ahead of the second front on Tuesday, with
scattered thunderstorms occurring. Although the NAM is generally
not favored at longer range, it sometimes can do a better job
picking up details near the surface, and it will not be completely
discounted at this point. Have included a slight chance of
showers/thunderstorms over the southern and southeastern portions
of the forecast area ahead of the front on Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Even the NAM has lower dew points eventually arriving behind the
second front (but still not as dry as the GFS and ECMWF), and a
dry forecast has been used beginning late Tuesday night. Sprawling
surface high pressure will pass by to our north underneath an
upper level trough at midweek. This will result in pleasant
conditions by summertime standards. In fact, forecast soundings
from both the GFS and ECMWF suggest surface dew points falling to
near 50 deg F or lower Wednesday into Friday. This would allow for
cool morning lows, especially in valleys. Sunshine would also
result in warm afternoons and large diurnal ranges.

The persisting eastern CONUS upper trough allows yet another cold
front to drop southeast into the area next weekend, but it`s
unclear how quickly it will exit. Moisture return is indicated
along the front, and it is shown lingering longest over our
southern counties. Precip has been included areawide Friday night
into Sunday, with the highest POP in the south. Even so, the POP
is held to no higher than chance category at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

All sites are starting the TAF period VFR for cigs and vis this
afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of long term lowering
through the afternoon and tonight. There is a chance that some
storms could sneak in near LOZ/SME this afternoon. This hour WSR-
88D radar has shown more showers develop along and near the I-75
corridor and MRMS would suggest we are managing to get some ice
now. That said did start SME/LOZ with VCTS but other sites the
uncertainty was that to keep out till later tonight. Therefore did
opt to add VCTS later tonight, as cold front inches closer to the
region and some of the meso models have this thought. Do think
there could be a break toward dawn before activity picks up again
at the end of the TAF period. This as the cold front is expected
to cross the region late Monday and went -SHRA/VCTS by 16z to 17z.
Not expecting winds to be a factor, but if a site sees a storm
gusty winds are not out of the question.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KPAH 262005
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
305 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Expecting to lose some, if not all, of our convection with loss
of heating by early this evening. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is then expected to increase in our north/northwest
counties late this evening with the approach of a cold front.
Surface observations currently show the front extending from
southern Lake Michigan into northeast Missouri and southeast
Kansas. Models show the front moving into northern portions of the
PAH forecast area around 06z Monday, then reaching the
Missouri/Arkansas and Kentucky/Tennessee borders by around 18z
Monday. Most of the activity will be right along and ahead of the
front. This gives us the highest chances for our northern half of
counties late tonight, and our southern half from daybreak into
early afternoon. Overall models have been quite a bit overdone on
coverage the past couple of days, so kept precip chances at good
chance or lower due to expecting convection to be scattered in
nature. This may need some adjusting if the development is more
widespread.

By Monday night, dry conditions will return, then models show a
weak secondary cold front moving across the PAH forecast area on
Tuesday. With little moisture left to work with, ECMWF and GFS
generate just some very light QPF, mainly in our west. Included
some slight chances for showers Tuesday afternoon along and west
of the Mississippi River.

Conditions will remain warm and muggy tonight and early Monday
ahead of the cold front. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
70 to 75 degree. Highs Monday will reach around 90 degrees, but
dew points will be dropping into the 60s across all but far
southern portions of the PAH forecast area Monday afternoon. Lows
Monday night will be in the upper 60s, then highs on Tuesday in
the middle to upper 80s with dew points in the lower to middle 60s
will give us much more pleasant conditions. Lows Tuesday night in
the upper 50s to middle 60s will actually be several degrees below
seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The upper-level pattern will generally remain in a ridge west/trough
east orientation throughout the extended portions of this forecast.
There is considerable variability amongst the available guidance in
the amplitude of this pattern, which will have an impact on the
timing and strength of disturbances in the cyclonic northwest flow
aloft.

At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the forecast
area early Wednesday, and may be briefly interrupted by a weak cold
front associated with an upper-level disturbance at some point.
Right now, it appears that this is most likely sometime in the
Friday through Saturday time frame. The 12Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF
both develop a surface low and try to push it eastward through the
region Friday night and Saturday. The ECMWF is much stronger and
has a swath of major QPF.

Given the uncertainties in timing impulses through the area, we will
have at least small chance PoPs over some portion of the area from
Thursday through Sunday. However, the primary emphasis right now is
on Friday night and Saturday, with a potential drying trend on
Sunday.

As for temperatures, we will start out a category or two below
normal Wednesday and slowly trend warmer into the weekend. Even over
the weekend temperatures will not quite reach normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated to scattered showers/tstorms have popped up over the
area and will continue into the early evening hrs, possibly
affecting any of the TAF sites. Overall coverage should decrease
toward sunset, but with incoming frontal system some storms may
continue into the late evening/overnight hrs with best chances
appearing to be northern half of the area including KEVV/KOWB. As
the front sinks south, better chances of -TSRA will migrate toward
KCGI/KPAH tmrw morning. SW winds generally below 10 kts today will
become light and variable this evening/overnight before gradually
switching around to the NNE tmrw morning behind the front. MVFR
conditions are possible for short periods of time within any of
the storms.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261930
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

available shortly...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

All sites are starting the TAF period VFR for cigs and vis this
afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of long term lowering
through the afternoon and tonight. There is a chance that some
storms could sneak in near LOZ/SME this afternoon. This hour WSR-
88D radar has shown more showers develop along and near the I-75
corridor and MRMS would suggest we are managing to get some ice
now. That said did start SME/LOZ with VCTS but other sites the
uncertainty was that to keep out till later tonight. Therefore did
opt to add VCTS later tonight, as cold front inches closer to the
region and some of the meso models have this thought. Do think
there could be a break toward dawn before activity picks up again
at the end of the TAF period. This as the cold front is expected
to cross the region late Monday and went -SHRA/VCTS by 16z to 17z.
Not expecting winds to be a factor, but if a site sees a storm
gusty winds are not out of the question.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261930
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

WSR-88D radar is picking up on a area of slow moving showers and
thunderstorms west of I-75 as expected this afternoon. None of
the meso models have had a great handle on the timing of the
convection overall, but the SPC SSEO page was indicating the
higher chance across this area this afternoon. This all seems
reasonable given the better moisture return in this area with
PWATS running 1.5 to 1.7 inches and generally dryer as you move
east of I-75. These storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall with dual pol estimates of around a inch per hour
in some of these storms. Also radar indicating many of these
storms are low centroid and are slow moving given little steering
flow. Most of the data including the SSEO would suggest a lull in
precip in the early evening ahead of the boundary that will aid in
firing off additional convection later tonight. However the SSEO
has much less of a signal overall at this time, so went no more
than scattered activity overnight. It is expected to be a muggy
night given the moisture return with dewpoints in the upper 60s to
70.

Now front is progged to progress across the region through the day
into Monday. This should be enough forcing to lead to more
numerous showers and storms. Right now the better chance looks
like it will reside across the southeastern half of the region,
but again kept with most spots seeing numerous showers and storms.
We will have sufficient lift along the front, MUCAPE on the order
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and PWAT values nearing the 2 inch, but we
will lack severely in the shear side given bulk shear values are
expected to run 20 knots at best. That said SPC does have the far
SE in a marginal severe risk but agree with them that this will
be more pulse like storm situation. The bigger threat overall will
be the potential for isolated flash flooding, given the PWATS are
running upwards of 2 inches and weak steering flow aloft. The FFG
has had time to recover from past weeks storms about 3 days ago.
Did opt to hold off on a flash flood watch given the higher
guidance and uncertainty on afternoon and overnight convection.
However have opted to continue to highlight this threat in the HWO
product. Monday night we will see a overall clearing trend as
front dives SE across the region, with isolated coverage as we
move through the night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

available shortly...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

All sites are starting the TAF period VFR for cigs and vis this
afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of long term lowering
through the afternoon and tonight. There is a chance that some
storms could sneak in near LOZ/SME this afternoon. This hour WSR-
88D radar has shown more showers develop along and near the I-75
corridor and MRMS would suggest we are managing to get some ice
now. That said did start SME/LOZ with VCTS but other sites the
uncertainty was that to keep out till later tonight. Therefore did
opt to add VCTS later tonight, as cold front inches closer to the
region and some of the meso models have this thought. Do think
there could be a break toward dawn before activity picks up again
at the end of the TAF period. This as the cold front is expected
to cross the region late Monday and went -SHRA/VCTS by 16z to 17z.
Not expecting winds to be a factor, but if a site sees a storm
gusty winds are not out of the question.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261901
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Now - Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed over
portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The airmass is
quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps in the low
90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with marginal mid level
lapse rates. The instability is just about all the storms have going
for them however as weak atmpospheric flow and the lack of any
focused trigger will keep things disorganized through the afternoon.
So far, the stronger updrafts have displayed an ability to become a
bit gusty with small wind bursts displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX
WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a
few wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
will be a concern with any storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm
could occur if any updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow
boundaries, so will have to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals this
afternoon.  Morning soundings suggest convective temperatures of 90-
91 this afternoon...so once we hit those temps, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will fire.  With little shear
available, they will primarily be heavy rain and lightning
producers.  The best chances for afternoon convection look to be
across central and east-central KY.  For that reason, we`ll carry
some VCTS at KLEX this afternoon.  Generally light and variable
winds will become more southerly and then southwesterly late in the
day.  A diurnally driven Cu field with bases around 4-5kFT AGL are
expected.

For tonight, cold front will push in from the northwest so a period
of VCTS will be inserted for all the terminals.  Frontal boundary
looks to clear KSDF late tonight allowing winds to shift to the
north/northwest, while KBWG and KLEX remain southwesterly.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261901
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
301 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Now - Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered coverage (20-30%) of storms has developed over
portions of central and eastern KY this afternoon. The airmass is
quite unstable (2000-3000 J/KG of SB CAPE) given temps in the low
90s and dew points in the low 70s combined with marginal mid level
lapse rates. The instability is just about all the storms have going
for them however as weak atmpospheric flow and the lack of any
focused trigger will keep things disorganized through the afternoon.
So far, the stronger updrafts have displayed an ability to become a
bit gusty with small wind bursts displayed on the SDF TDWR and LVX
WSR-88D. Gusts were likely only in the 30-40 mph range. Along with a
few wind gusts, brief heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning
will be a concern with any storm. Suppose a rogue pulse severe storm
could occur if any updraft is enhanced by colliding outflow
boundaries, so will have to monitor through the afternoon.

As we move into the late evening and overnight, expect storms that
fired along a frontal boundary to our NW to move into the region.
Best coverage will be across our southern IN couties (especially the
northern tier) where likely Pops are expected. Elsewhere, across
southern IN and northern KY, expect scattered coverage (30-40%) of
showers and storms through the overnight. A few of the evening
storms across southern IN could be a bit stronger with a very
isolated wind or hail threat along with heavy rain and lightning.

Frontal boundary should be roughly along the Ohio River just after
daybreak on Monday, and will only slowly slide south through the
day. This will put the focus for scattered showers and storms across
Kentucky through the day, waning in coverage near Lake Cumberland by
early evening. Not real impressed with potential for severe as
instability will be lower given less heating, and wind fields will
remain weak. Expect a dry forecast by Monday night with the frontal
boundary and any precipitation off to our SE.

Expect a mild night with moisture pooling ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary and added cloud cover. Lows should only drop to the
70-75 degree range. Monday will not be as hot with highs mostly in
the mid and upper 80s. Lows Monday night drop off into the 65 to 70
range.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...

Upper troughing will hold over the NE half of the CONUS on Tuesday.
A shortwave embedded within the overall trough will pivot over the
eastern Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated cold front
swinging through the Ohio River Valley. Deeper moisture will be
limited with this frontal passage, so will continue with a dry
forecast although some models suggest a few very isolated late
showers may be possible. Will hold with a forecast of temps in the
low to mid 80s with partly to mostly sunny skies. No big deal either
A nice airmass change looks to occur behind the front with
cooler/drier weather for mid week.

Tuesday night into Thursday Night...

Dry NW flow aloft and strong surface high pressure will control our
sensible weather until late in the week. A cooler and more
comfortable airmass will usher in with highs in the upper 70s and
low 80s on Wednesday. Low 80s are expected on Thursday. With the
drier dew points in place, overnight lows will also be noticeably
cooler. Look for upper 50s and low 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, with a trend toward the low to mid 60s by Thursday night.

Friday through Sunday...

Another cold front approaches and slowly passes as we head into the
weekend. This will bring an increased chance for showers and storms
along and ahead of the front. The front will slow up over our region
Friday night through Saturday night as it becomes nearly parallel to
the upper flow, but should be pretty well through our region by
Sunday. will keep isolated to scattered pops mainly each afternoon
and evening during this time, with focus only over far southern KY
by Sunday. Saturday looks to be the day with best coverage of
storms, with Friday and Sunday more likely dry than not for most
locations. Temps also moderate during this time with highs in the
mid 80s and lows in the mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals this
afternoon.  Morning soundings suggest convective temperatures of 90-
91 this afternoon...so once we hit those temps, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will fire.  With little shear
available, they will primarily be heavy rain and lightning
producers.  The best chances for afternoon convection look to be
across central and east-central KY.  For that reason, we`ll carry
some VCTS at KLEX this afternoon.  Generally light and variable
winds will become more southerly and then southwesterly late in the
day.  A diurnally driven Cu field with bases around 4-5kFT AGL are
expected.

For tonight, cold front will push in from the northwest so a period
of VCTS will be inserted for all the terminals.  Frontal boundary
looks to clear KSDF late tonight allowing winds to shift to the
north/northwest, while KBWG and KLEX remain southwesterly.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........BJS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KPAH 261745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Updated Aviation Discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The PAH forecast area will continue to be under the influence of a
mid level ridge today, meaning a warm, moist, unstable atmosphere.
An added component for triggering more showers and tstms again
today will be approaching mid level shortwave energy in the
westerlies across the Midwest, and its attendant surface cold
front, which should be knocking on our northwest door tonight.
This combined with increasing low level moisture advection today
should allow showers and tstms to develop generally from west to
east possibly as early as 11-12Z. Some tstms may be strong to
severe in the afternoon due mainly to the robust low level lapse
rates, which will tend to increase updraft/downdraft intensities.
Outside of storms and their outflows, heat indices are expected
to exceed 100 everywhere today, and may peak at 105 in isolated
areas. Will address this with an SPS.

As mid level heights continue to fall tonight, and drier, cooler
air wedges under the existing airmass, PoPs will peak at around
50% in the northern half of the PAH forecast area. This trend
will continue into Monday for the southern half as the airmass
change continues. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The remainder of the short term will be dry and steadily cooler
under northwesterly flow aloft. A possible exception to dry
conditions will be Tuesday afternoon, when parts of the southern
half of the region may actually receive measurable rainfall, as a
reinforcing shot of cool, dense, high pressure air associated with
a Great Lakes shortwave surges in to our region from the north.
This signal has been present in mainly the GFS model data for days
now, and is presently shown in more than one model.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see, at least for a few days, an
end to the heat and humidity. Confidence remains high that we will
be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from
near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will
be very comfortable.

By later Thursday into Friday/Saturday, models tend to diverge in
their solutions, and confidence wanes. The 00z operational GFS and
the 00z Canadian models want to bring another cold front through
during the day Friday, and then dries out the atmosphere with
another cooler area of Canadian high pressure over the weekend.
ECMWF wants to hang the front up over the area and paints a warmer
and much wetter start to the weekend. Given the expected mid/upper
nwly flow, I tend to think the front would have a decent chc of
pushing on through. However, given the time of year and respect for
the EC out in time, will probably need to go with a model blend for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Isolated to scattered showers/tstorms have popped up over the
area and will continue into the early evening hrs, possibly
affecting any of the TAF sites. Overall coverage should decrease
toward sunset, but with incoming frontal system some storms may
continue into the late evening/overnight hrs with best chances
appearing to be northern half of the area including KEVV/KOWB. As
the front sinks south, better chances of -TSRA will migrate toward
KCGI/KPAH tmrw morning. SW winds generally below 10 kts today will
become light and variable this evening/overnight before gradually
switching around to the NNE tmrw morning behind the front. MVFR
conditions are possible for short periods of time within any of
the storms.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...SP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261733
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
133 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1136 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Ongoing forecast looks good at this hour with temps already in the
upper 80s touching 90. Temps topping out in the 91 to 95 range
should be common this afternoon, and with dew points in the lower
70s heat indices will rise into the low 100s. Special Weather
Statement highlighting heat indices looks good.

Second forecast concern for this afternoon will be isolated to
widely scattered shower and storm activity. A few cells have already
popped on radar, and expect coverage to increase a bit over the next
1 to 2 hours. A lack of deep shear and a focused forcing mechanism
will limit organization this afternoon, however a period of brief
heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will be common with any
storm. A few of the storms could become gusty later this afternoon
and evening with the strongest updrafts. Better organization of
storms is expected late evening into the overnight ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday evening into
Monday...

Today...
Another hot and humid day is on tap for Sunday before a
cold front pushes through the region late Sunday night. Currently, a
warm front extends from the upper midwest through western Illinois
and southward along I-24 toward HOP.  As this front continues to
move northeastward, dewpoints will creep up into the low 70`s across
the CWA. Steep low level lapse rates will allow temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 90`s. This combined with muggy dewpoints
will push heat indices to 98-103 in the afternoon.
Currently have a web article posted about the heat and humidity
today and the weather story will address both storm chances and heat
and humidity.

A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible as the warm front
approaches during the mid afternoon. Although coverage will only be
around 20%, agree with SPC`s placement of marginal risk basically
along and north of I-64 as the any stronger storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds, very heavy rain, and CG strikes.
Soundings look like a classic hot sultry airmass with the the
potential for wet microbursts and a torrential downpour.

Tonight...
By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Threats associated with
these storms will be the same as they were in the afternoon, with
DCAPE values around 1000 J/KG. PWATS around 2" will allow storms to
produce very heavy rainfall. Additionally, light wind fields will
not allow storms to move much. This activity will slowly push across
southern Indiana by 00z and will reach the Ohio River around 04z and
continue to weaken as it progresses southward through daybreak
Monday.

Monday and Monday evening...

Scattered showers and storms will still be possible Monday morning
and then only across the the southern 1/2 of the CWA Monday. These
storms will not be as stout as the Sunday storms with more cloud
cover and less instability along the frontal zone. Cloud cover will
keep temps 5-8 degrees cooler keeping high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range for the most part.

Clouds will hang around behind the front before gradually clearing
from north to south. These slightly cooler readings with dewpoints
falling back in the 60`s will make for a more comfortable night
sleeping.

Kept very low POPS in Monday evening across the far southern tier
which matches up well with BNA and JKL.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...
The extended period will feature an mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A secondary cold
front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday ushering in much
cooler and more substantial drier air. Some models suggest there
could be very isolated showers and thunderstorms along this front,
but will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures will be in the low
to mid 80`s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Thursday...

A 594m ridge takes control over the Beehive State allowing a
refreshing trough across much of the eastern US. A transponding
surface high pressure builds behind the front, giving way to a very
nice midweek. The 1000-500mb thickness Tuesday night looks to be
around 565m and moves very little for Wednesday. Our northern
counties likely won`t see 80 degrees for highs while the rest of the
area will be around 80.

Low temps will remain cool in the mid to upper 50`s with some deep
valleys dropping into the lower 50`s Wednesday and Thursday morning
across N-NE areas. To put this in perspective, average normal high
temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday through Sunday...

Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80`s by Friday before
our next chance of precip moves in from the west on Friday and
Saturday with low POPs being introduced at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals this
afternoon.  Morning soundings suggest convective temperatures of 90-
91 this afternoon...so once we hit those temps, isolated to
scattered showers and storms will fire.  With little shear
available, they will primarily be heavy rain and lightning
producers.  The best chances for afternoon convection look to be
across central and east-central KY.  For that reason, we`ll carry
some VCTS at KLEX this afternoon.  Generally light and variable
winds will become more southerly and then southwesterly late in the
day.  A diurnally driven Cu field with bases around 4-5kFT AGL are
expected.

For tonight, cold front will push in from the northwest so a period
of VCTS will be inserted for all the terminals.  Frontal boundary
looks to clear KSDF late tonight allowing winds to shift to the
north/northwest, while KBWG and KLEX remain southwesterly.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....MED/JDG
Long Term......MED/JDG
Aviation.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261721
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
121 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Vis Sat indicating a few CU have developed across portions of
eastern KY this afternoon. The best overall development has been
to the west and southwest across portions of central KY and
Cumberland Plateau region of TN. The plateau region has seen a
few showers develop, but these showers have struggled to get tall
enough to see much in the way of lightning. Overall think forecast
grids are doing well did modify the afternoon temps a bit just
given we were running lower than actual on some of the hourly
temp data. Therefore took temps closer to some of the model
blends guidance data.

UPDATE Issued at 955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Vis sat indicating that the mostly river valley fog has burnt off
this morning and we are left with sunny skies. Therefore will
update the zones to delete the morning fog wording. The latest
HRRR is still showing some convection firing up this afternoon
west of I-75 and the SSEO showing best chances along and near the
I-75 corridor late this afternoon. Therefore will continue with
pops that we have going at this point mainly west of I-75.
Overall forecast grids are on track this morning but did update
with latest obs/trends.

UPDATE Issued at 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Latest low-light visible satellite reveals fog along the river
valleys. This will be burning off in the next hour or so, with
some webcams already showing some improvement. Have merely
freshened up the temperatures and dew points to better jive with
the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Surface high pressure is currently focused across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states, with an area of low pressure centered
across southern Manitoba. A cold front extends south into
Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states.
Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex
region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario.
Eastern Kentucky is enjoying a mostly clear night, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s across most
locations, with some patchy river valley fog present.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with
plenty of heat and humidity in offing today, as highs return to
around 90 degrees, while dew points creep up into the upper 60s,
making it feel like the mid 90s. The surface cold front will draw
closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop
ups west of I-75. Tonight will be balmy, with lows only making it
down to around 70 degrees. Scattered convection will threaten the
area during the overnight as the front moves in from the
northwest. Pops will peak during the day on Monday as the boundary
gradually pushes southeast across our area. High PWATs and
freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so,
will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers. Additionally,
some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The extended period is still on track to start out wet, as a cold
front slowly departs the area Monday night and Tuesday. The
precipitation should be mostly confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area, and will slowly taper off Monday night and Tuesday.
Once the front is gone, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through the end of the week. There is
some uncertainty amongst the models as to whether or not we could
see another shot of rain on Friday, confidence in this scenario
panning out is so low at this time, that the decision was made to
leave Friday dry for now. The next chance for rain for eastern
Kentucky as of now looks to be during the upcoming weekend,
beginning Friday night, as an area of low pressure is progged to
move across the lower Tennessee valley. High temperatures
throughout the week are forecast to be around normal for the time
of year, with daily highs in the 80s. The one exception to this
looks to be Wednesday, when we may see highs only make it to
around 80 across the area. With low cloud cover and light winds
expected, we could see several nights of below normal
temperatures. A few nights will feature lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, while a few other nights during the upcoming work week
could also see lows in the mid to upper 60s, which would be
slightly above normal for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

All sites are starting the TAF period VFR for cigs and vis this
afternoon. Not expecting much in the way of long term lowering
through the afternoon and tonight. There is a chance that some
storms could sneak in near LOZ/SME this afternoon. This hour WSR-
88D radar has shown more showers develop along and near the I-75
corridor and MRMS would suggest we are managing to get some ice
now. That said did start SME/LOZ with VCTS but other sites the
uncertainty was that to keep out till later tonight. Therefore did
opt to add VCTS later tonight, as cold front inches closer to the
region and some of the meso models have this thought. Do think
there could be a break toward dawn before activity picks up again
at the end of the TAF period. This as the cold front is expected
to cross the region late Monday and went -SHRA/VCTS by 16z to 17z.
Not expecting winds to be a factor, but if a site sees a storm
gusty winds are not out of the question.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261635
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1235 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Vis Sat indicating a few CU have developed across portions of
eastern KY this afternoon. The best overall development has been
to the west and southwest across portions of central KY and
Cumberland Plateau region of TN. The plateau region has seen a
few showers develop, but these showers have struggled to get tall
enough to see much in the way of lightning. Overall think forecast
grids are doing well did modify the afternoon temps a bit just
given we were running lower than actual on some of the hourly
temp data. Therefore took temps closer to some of the model
blends guidance data.

UPDATE Issued at 955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Vis sat indicating that the mostly river valley fog has burnt off
this morning and we are left with sunny skies. Therefore will
update the zones to delete the morning fog wording. The latest
HRRR is still showing some convection firing up this afternoon
west of I-75 and the SSEO showing best chances along and near the
I-75 corridor late this afternoon. Therefore will continue with
pops that we have going at this point mainly west of I-75.
Overall forecast grids are on track this morning but did update
with latest obs/trends.

UPDATE Issued at 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Latest low-light visible satellite reveals fog along the river
valleys. This will be burning off in the next hour or so, with
some webcams already showing some improvement. Have merely
freshened up the temperatures and dew points to better jive with
the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Surface high pressure is currently focused across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states, with an area of low pressure centered
across southern Manitoba. A cold front extends south into
Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states.
Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex
region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario.
Eastern Kentucky is enjoying a mostly clear night, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s across most
locations, with some patchy river valley fog present.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with
plenty of heat and humidity in offing today, as highs return to
around 90 degrees, while dew points creep up into the upper 60s,
making it feel like the mid 90s. The surface cold front will draw
closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop
ups west of I-75. Tonight will be balmy, with lows only making it
down to around 70 degrees. Scattered convection will threaten the
area during the overnight as the front moves in from the
northwest. Pops will peak during the day on Monday as the boundary
gradually pushes southeast across our area. High PWATs and
freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so,
will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers. Additionally,
some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The extended period is still on track to start out wet, as a cold
front slowly departs the area Monday night and Tuesday. The
precipitation should be mostly confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area, and will slowly taper off Monday night and Tuesday.
Once the front is gone, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through the end of the week. There is
some uncertainty amongst the models as to whether or not we could
see another shot of rain on Friday, confidence in this scenario
panning out is so low at this time, that the decision was made to
leave Friday dry for now. The next chance for rain for eastern
Kentucky as of now looks to be during the upcoming weekend,
beginning Friday night, as an area of low pressure is progged to
move across the lower Tennessee valley. High temperatures
throughout the week are forecast to be around normal for the time
of year, with daily highs in the 80s. The one exception to this
looks to be Wednesday, when we may see highs only make it to
around 80 across the area. With low cloud cover and light winds
expected, we could see several nights of below normal
temperatures. A few nights will feature lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, while a few other nights during the upcoming work week
could also see lows in the mid to upper 60s, which would be
slightly above normal for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

IFR or worse fog will burn off in the deeper river valleys by
around 13z. VFR conditions look to generally hold through the
period. Few to scattered cumulus will develop during the day in
the 4-5k feet agl range. Isolated convection will also threaten
south of a line from KSME to KI35 during peak heating. Expect the
areal coverage to be limited enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now. As we head into tonight, rain chances will begin to increase
from the west as a cold front approaches the area. Have carried
VCTS at all sites. Light and variable winds will engage out of
the south and southwest at around 5 kts by the mid-morning hours,
before diminishing once again by dusk.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261539
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1139 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1136 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Ongoing forecast looks good at this hour with temps already in the
upper 80s touching 90. Temps topping out in the 91 to 95 range
should be common this afternoon, and with dew points in the lower
70s heat indices will rise into the low 100s. Special Weather
Statement highlighting heat indices looks good.

Second forecast concern for this afternoon will be isolated to
widely scattered shower and storm activity. A few cells have already
popped on radar, and expect coverage to increase a bit over the next
1 to 2 hours. A lack of deep shear and a focused forcing mechanism
will limit organization this afternoon, however a period of brief
heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning will be common with any
storm. A few of the storms could become gusty later this afternoon
and evening with the strongest updrafts. Better organization of
storms is expected late evening into the overnight ahead of an
approaching frontal boundary.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday evening into
Monday...

Today...
Another hot and humid day is on tap for Sunday before a
cold front pushes through the region late Sunday night. Currently, a
warm front extends from the upper midwest through western Illinois
and southward along I-24 toward HOP.  As this front continues to
move northeastward, dewpoints will creep up into the low 70`s across
the CWA. Steep low level lapse rates will allow temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 90`s. This combined with muggy dewpoints
will push heat indices to 98-103 in the afternoon.
Currently have a web article posted about the heat and humidity
today and the weather story will address both storm chances and heat
and humidity.

A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible as the warm front
approaches during the mid afternoon. Although coverage will only be
around 20%, agree with SPC`s placement of marginal risk basically
along and north of I-64 as the any stronger storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds, very heavy rain, and CG strikes.
Soundings look like a classic hot sultry airmass with the the
potential for wet microbursts and a torrential downpour.

Tonight...
By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Threats associated with
these storms will be the same as they were in the afternoon, with
DCAPE values around 1000 J/KG. PWATS around 2" will allow storms to
produce very heavy rainfall. Additionally, light wind fields will
not allow storms to move much. This activity will slowly push across
southern Indiana by 00z and will reach the Ohio River around 04z and
continue to weaken as it progresses southward through daybreak
Monday.

Monday and Monday evening...

Scattered showers and storms will still be possible Monday morning
and then only across the the southern 1/2 of the CWA Monday. These
storms will not be as stout as the Sunday storms with more cloud
cover and less instability along the frontal zone. Cloud cover will
keep temps 5-8 degrees cooler keeping high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range for the most part.

Clouds will hang around behind the front before gradually clearing
from north to south. These slightly cooler readings with dewpoints
falling back in the 60`s will make for a more comfortable night
sleeping.

Kept very low POPS in Monday evening across the far southern tier
which matches up well with BNA and JKL.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...
The extended period will feature an mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A secondary cold
front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday ushering in much
cooler and more substantial drier air. Some models suggest there
could be very isolated showers and thunderstorms along this front,
but will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures will be in the low
to mid 80`s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Thursday...

A 594m ridge takes control over the Beehive State allowing a
refreshing trough across much of the eastern US. A transponding
surface high pressure builds behind the front, giving way to a very
nice midweek. The 1000-500mb thickness Tuesday night looks to be
around 565m and moves very little for Wednesday. Our northern
counties likely won`t see 80 degrees for highs while the rest of the
area will be around 80.

Low temps will remain cool in the mid to upper 50`s with some deep
valleys dropping into the lower 50`s Wednesday and Thursday morning
across N-NE areas. To put this in perspective, average normal high
temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday through Sunday...

Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80`s by Friday before
our next chance of precip moves in from the west on Friday and
Saturday with low POPs being introduced at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Well...VFR conditions right now and will for most of the day.
However humid and unstable airmass will set the stage for isolate
afternoon tsra, and thermals for aviators in the pattern. The
airmass tonight will even be juicier in advance of a cold front
which will move through set for FROPA just after daybreak in SDF Mon
and late morning at LEX and late Monday at BWG.

As winds swing around from SE to SW today, this low level moisture
will work its way into the TAF sites, and with surface heating,
SCT035-045 should develop no later than 16Z.
Initial cloud formation could be in high end MVFR range, but should
not be enough to form a CIG before bases rise.

Forecast soundings show instability is sufficient for convection
today, with PWATS and dry mid level entrainment setting the stage
for isolated wet microbursts. POPS will be low but if any airport
should see one expect torrential downpours and very gusty winds with
mvfr VSBYS.

Will at least have TSRA vncty late day at SDF.



SDF. LEX should stay out of precip this forecast period.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........BJS
Short Term.....MED/JDG
Long Term......MED/JDG
Aviation.......JDG




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261355
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Vis sat indicating that the mostly river valley fog has burnt off
this morning and we are left with sunny skies. Therefore will
update the zones to delete the morning fog wording. The latest
HRRR is still showing some convection firing up this afternoon
west of I-75 and the SSEO showing best chances along and near the
I-75 corridor late this afternoon. Therefore will continue with
pops that we have going at this point mainly west of I-75.
Overall forecast grids are on track this morning but did update
with latest obs/trends.

UPDATE Issued at 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Latest low-light visible satellite reveals fog along the river
valleys. This will be burning off in the next hour or so, with
some webcams already showing some improvement. Have merely
freshened up the temperatures and dew points to better jive with
the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Surface high pressure is currently focused across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states, with an area of low pressure centered
across southern Manitoba. A cold front extends south into
Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states.
Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex
region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario.
Eastern Kentucky is enjoying a mostly clear night, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s across most
locations, with some patchy river valley fog present.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with
plenty of heat and humidity in offing today, as highs return to
around 90 degrees, while dew points creep up into the upper 60s,
making it feel like the mid 90s. The surface cold front will draw
closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop
ups west of I-75. Tonight will be balmy, with lows only making it
down to around 70 degrees. Scattered convection will threaten the
area during the overnight as the front moves in from the
northwest. Pops will peak during the day on Monday as the boundary
gradually pushes southeast across our area. High PWATs and
freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so,
will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers. Additionally,
some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The extended period is still on track to start out wet, as a cold
front slowly departs the area Monday night and Tuesday. The
precipitation should be mostly confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area, and will slowly taper off Monday night and Tuesday.
Once the front is gone, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through the end of the week. There is
some uncertainty amongst the models as to whether or not we could
see another shot of rain on Friday, confidence in this scenario
panning out is so low at this time, that the decision was made to
leave Friday dry for now. The next chance for rain for eastern
Kentucky as of now looks to be during the upcoming weekend,
beginning Friday night, as an area of low pressure is progged to
move across the lower Tennessee valley. High temperatures
throughout the week are forecast to be around normal for the time
of year, with daily highs in the 80s. The one exception to this
looks to be Wednesday, when we may see highs only make it to
around 80 across the area. With low cloud cover and light winds
expected, we could see several nights of below normal
temperatures. A few nights will feature lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, while a few other nights during the upcoming work week
could also see lows in the mid to upper 60s, which would be
slightly above normal for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

IFR or worse fog will burn off in the deeper river valleys by
around 13z. VFR conditions look to generally hold through the
period. Few to scattered cumulus will develop during the day in
the 4-5k feet agl range. Isolated convection will also threaten
south of a line from KSME to KI35 during peak heating. Expect the
areal coverage to be limited enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now. As we head into tonight, rain chances will begin to increase
from the west as a cold front approaches the area. Have carried
VCTS at all sites. Light and variable winds will engage out of
the south and southwest at around 5 kts by the mid-morning hours,
before diminishing once again by dusk.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261355
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Vis sat indicating that the mostly river valley fog has burnt off
this morning and we are left with sunny skies. Therefore will
update the zones to delete the morning fog wording. The latest
HRRR is still showing some convection firing up this afternoon
west of I-75 and the SSEO showing best chances along and near the
I-75 corridor late this afternoon. Therefore will continue with
pops that we have going at this point mainly west of I-75.
Overall forecast grids are on track this morning but did update
with latest obs/trends.

UPDATE Issued at 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Latest low-light visible satellite reveals fog along the river
valleys. This will be burning off in the next hour or so, with
some webcams already showing some improvement. Have merely
freshened up the temperatures and dew points to better jive with
the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Surface high pressure is currently focused across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states, with an area of low pressure centered
across southern Manitoba. A cold front extends south into
Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states.
Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex
region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario.
Eastern Kentucky is enjoying a mostly clear night, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s across most
locations, with some patchy river valley fog present.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with
plenty of heat and humidity in offing today, as highs return to
around 90 degrees, while dew points creep up into the upper 60s,
making it feel like the mid 90s. The surface cold front will draw
closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop
ups west of I-75. Tonight will be balmy, with lows only making it
down to around 70 degrees. Scattered convection will threaten the
area during the overnight as the front moves in from the
northwest. Pops will peak during the day on Monday as the boundary
gradually pushes southeast across our area. High PWATs and
freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so,
will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers. Additionally,
some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The extended period is still on track to start out wet, as a cold
front slowly departs the area Monday night and Tuesday. The
precipitation should be mostly confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area, and will slowly taper off Monday night and Tuesday.
Once the front is gone, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through the end of the week. There is
some uncertainty amongst the models as to whether or not we could
see another shot of rain on Friday, confidence in this scenario
panning out is so low at this time, that the decision was made to
leave Friday dry for now. The next chance for rain for eastern
Kentucky as of now looks to be during the upcoming weekend,
beginning Friday night, as an area of low pressure is progged to
move across the lower Tennessee valley. High temperatures
throughout the week are forecast to be around normal for the time
of year, with daily highs in the 80s. The one exception to this
looks to be Wednesday, when we may see highs only make it to
around 80 across the area. With low cloud cover and light winds
expected, we could see several nights of below normal
temperatures. A few nights will feature lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, while a few other nights during the upcoming work week
could also see lows in the mid to upper 60s, which would be
slightly above normal for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

IFR or worse fog will burn off in the deeper river valleys by
around 13z. VFR conditions look to generally hold through the
period. Few to scattered cumulus will develop during the day in
the 4-5k feet agl range. Isolated convection will also threaten
south of a line from KSME to KI35 during peak heating. Expect the
areal coverage to be limited enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now. As we head into tonight, rain chances will begin to increase
from the west as a cold front approaches the area. Have carried
VCTS at all sites. Light and variable winds will engage out of
the south and southwest at around 5 kts by the mid-morning hours,
before diminishing once again by dusk.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 261215
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
715 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The PAH forecast area will continue to be under the influence of a
mid level ridge today, meaning a warm, moist, unstable atmosphere.
An added component for triggering more showers and tstms again
today will be approaching mid level shortwave energy in the
westerlies across the Midwest, and its attendant surface cold
front, which should be knocking on our northwest door tonight.
This combined with increasing low level moisture advection today
should allow showers and tstms to develop generally from west to
east possibly as early as 11-12Z. Some tstms may be strong to
severe in the afternoon due mainly to the robust low level lapse
rates, which will tend to increase updraft/downdraft intensities.
Outside of storms and their outflows, heat indices are expected
to exceed 100 everywhere today, and may peak at 105 in isolated
areas. Will address this with an SPS.

As mid level heights continue to fall tonight, and drier, cooler
air wedges under the existing airmass, PoPs will peak at around
50% in the northern half of the PAH forecast area. This trend
will continue into Monday for the southern half as the airmass
change continues. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The remainder of the short term will be dry and steadily cooler
under northwesterly flow aloft. A possible exception to dry
conditions will be Tuesday afternoon, when parts of the southern
half of the region may actually receive measurable rainfall, as a
reinforcing shot of cool, dense, high pressure air associated with
a Great Lakes shortwave surges in to our region from the north.
This signal has been present in mainly the GFS model data for days
now, and is presently shown in more than one model.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see, at least for a few days, an
end to the heat and humidity. Confidence remains high that we will
be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from
near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will
be very comfortable.

By later Thursday into Friday/Saturday, models tend to diverge in
their solutions, and confidence wanes. The 00z operational GFS and
the 00z Canadian models want to bring another cold front through
during the day Friday, and then dries out the atmosphere with
another cooler area of Canadian high pressure over the weekend.
ECMWF wants to hang the front up over the area and paints a warmer
and much wetter start to the weekend. Given the expected mid/upper
nwly flow, I tend to think the front would have a decent chc of
pushing on through. However, given the time of year and respect for
the EC out in time, will probably need to go with a model blend for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 715 AM CDT SUN Jun 26 2016

Southwest winds generally below 10 knots will prevail through the
daylight hours today under VFR conditions. However, isolated to
scattered showers/tstms are expected to develop across the region at
least by late morning, possibly briefly affecting TAF sites during
the daylight hours. A frontal boundary will begin to enter the
region by around sunset, eventually switching light winds to the
north over most of the region. As a result, chances of a shower or
tstm at the TAF sites should increase after 00Z, with MVFR
conditions possible for short intervals overnight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 261215
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
715 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 715 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The PAH forecast area will continue to be under the influence of a
mid level ridge today, meaning a warm, moist, unstable atmosphere.
An added component for triggering more showers and tstms again
today will be approaching mid level shortwave energy in the
westerlies across the Midwest, and its attendant surface cold
front, which should be knocking on our northwest door tonight.
This combined with increasing low level moisture advection today
should allow showers and tstms to develop generally from west to
east possibly as early as 11-12Z. Some tstms may be strong to
severe in the afternoon due mainly to the robust low level lapse
rates, which will tend to increase updraft/downdraft intensities.
Outside of storms and their outflows, heat indices are expected
to exceed 100 everywhere today, and may peak at 105 in isolated
areas. Will address this with an SPS.

As mid level heights continue to fall tonight, and drier, cooler
air wedges under the existing airmass, PoPs will peak at around
50% in the northern half of the PAH forecast area. This trend
will continue into Monday for the southern half as the airmass
change continues. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The remainder of the short term will be dry and steadily cooler
under northwesterly flow aloft. A possible exception to dry
conditions will be Tuesday afternoon, when parts of the southern
half of the region may actually receive measurable rainfall, as a
reinforcing shot of cool, dense, high pressure air associated with
a Great Lakes shortwave surges in to our region from the north.
This signal has been present in mainly the GFS model data for days
now, and is presently shown in more than one model.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see, at least for a few days, an
end to the heat and humidity. Confidence remains high that we will
be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from
near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will
be very comfortable.

By later Thursday into Friday/Saturday, models tend to diverge in
their solutions, and confidence wanes. The 00z operational GFS and
the 00z Canadian models want to bring another cold front through
during the day Friday, and then dries out the atmosphere with
another cooler area of Canadian high pressure over the weekend.
ECMWF wants to hang the front up over the area and paints a warmer
and much wetter start to the weekend. Given the expected mid/upper
nwly flow, I tend to think the front would have a decent chc of
pushing on through. However, given the time of year and respect for
the EC out in time, will probably need to go with a model blend for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 715 AM CDT SUN Jun 26 2016

Southwest winds generally below 10 knots will prevail through the
daylight hours today under VFR conditions. However, isolated to
scattered showers/tstms are expected to develop across the region at
least by late morning, possibly briefly affecting TAF sites during
the daylight hours. A frontal boundary will begin to enter the
region by around sunset, eventually switching light winds to the
north over most of the region. As a result, chances of a shower or
tstm at the TAF sites should increase after 00Z, with MVFR
conditions possible for short intervals overnight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261141 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Latest low-light visible satellite reveals fog along the river
valleys. This will be burning off in the next hour or so, with
some webcams already showing some improvement. Have merely
freshened up the temperatures and dew points to better jive with
the current trends in observations, otherwise the forecast remains
on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Surface high pressure is currently focused across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states, with an area of low pressure centered
across southern Manitoba. A cold front extends south into
Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states.
Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex
region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario.
Eastern Kentucky is enjoying a mostly clear night, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s across most
locations, with some patchy river valley fog present.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with
plenty of heat and humidity in offing today, as highs return to
around 90 degrees, while dew points creep up into the upper 60s,
making it feel like the mid 90s. The surface cold front will draw
closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop
ups west of I-75. Tonight will be balmy, with lows only making it
down to around 70 degrees. Scattered convection will threaten the
area during the overnight as the front moves in from the
northwest. Pops will peak during the day on Monday as the boundary
gradually pushes southeast across our area. High PWATs and
freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so,
will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers. Additionally,
some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The extended period is still on track to start out wet, as a cold
front slowly departs the area Monday night and Tuesday. The
precipitation should be mostly confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area, and will slowly taper off Monday night and Tuesday.
Once the front is gone, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through the end of the week. There is
some uncertainty amongst the models as to whether or not we could
see another shot of rain on Friday, confidence in this scenario
panning out is so low at this time, that the decision was made to
leave Friday dry for now. The next chance for rain for eastern
Kentucky as of now looks to be during the upcoming weekend,
beginning Friday night, as an area of low pressure is progged to
move across the lower Tennessee valley. High temperatures
throughout the week are forecast to be around normal for the time
of year, with daily highs in the 80s. The one exception to this
looks to be Wednesday, when we may see highs only make it to
around 80 across the area. With low cloud cover and light winds
expected, we could see several nights of below normal
temperatures. A few nights will feature lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, while a few other nights during the upcoming work week
could also see lows in the mid to upper 60s, which would be
slightly above normal for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

IFR or worse fog will burn off in the deeper river valleys by
around 13z. VFR conditions look to generally hold through the
period. Few to scattered cumulus will develop during the day in
the 4-5k feet agl range. Isolated convection will also threaten
south of a line from KSME to KI35 during peak heating. Expect the
areal coverage to be limited enough to keep out of the TAFs for
now. As we head into tonight, rain chances will begin to increase
from the west as a cold front approaches the area. Have carried
VCTS at all sites. Light and variable winds will engage out of
the south and southwest at around 5 kts by the mid-morning hours,
before diminishing once again by dusk.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261029
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
629 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Well... forecast is in good shape, but looking more in-depth at
high resolution models, it still appears that isolated POPs are
warranted beginning at 16z with a boundary lifting northeastward.
However, for this evening and tonight, models pointing to more
organized convection across the both and northeastern areas and a
distinct hint that some of the area may be gapped tonight along and
ahead of the cold front due to the time and better forcing to the
northeast.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday evening into
Monday...

Today...
Another hot and humid day is on tap for Sunday before a
cold front pushes through the region late Sunday night. Currently, a
warm front extends from the upper midwest through western Illinois
and southward along I-24 toward HOP.  As this front continues to
move northeastward, dewpoints will creep up into the low 70`s across
the CWA. Steep low level lapse rates will allow temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 90`s. This combined with muggy dewpoints
will push heat indices to 98-103 in the afternoon.
Currently have a web article posted about the heat and humidity
today and the weather story will address both storm chances and heat
and humidity.

A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible as the warm front
approaches during the mid afternoon. Although coverage will only be
around 20%, agree with SPC`s placement of marginal risk basically
along and north of I-64 as the any stronger storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds, very heavy rain, and CG strikes.
Soundings look like a classic hot sultry airmass with the the
potential for wet microbursts and a torrential downpour.

Tonight...
By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Threats associated with
these storms will be the same as they were in the afternoon, with
DCAPE values around 1000 J/KG. PWATS around 2" will allow storms to
produce very heavy rainfall. Additionally, light wind fields will
not allow storms to move much. This activity will slowly push across
southern Indiana by 00z and will reach the Ohio River around 04z and
continue to weaken as it progresses southward through daybreak
Monday.

Monday and Monday evening...

Scattered showers and storms will still be possible Monday morning
and then only across the the southern 1/2 of the CWA Monday. These
storms will not be as stout as the Sunday storms with more cloud
cover and less instability along the frontal zone. Cloud cover will
keep temps 5-8 degrees cooler keeping high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range for the most part.

Clouds will hang around behind the front before gradually clearing
from north to south. These slightly cooler readings with dewpoints
falling back in the 60`s will make for a more comfortable night
sleeping.

Kept very low POPS in Monday evening across the far southern tier
which matches up well with BNA and JKL.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...
The extended period will feature an mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A secondary cold
front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday ushering in much
cooler and more substantial drier air. Some models suggest there
could be very isolated showers and thunderstorms along this front,
but will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures will be in the low
to mid 80`s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Thursday...

A 594m ridge takes control over the Beehive State allowing a
refreshing trough across much of the eastern US. A transponding
surface high pressure builds behind the front, giving way to a very
nice midweek. The 1000-500mb thickness Tuesday night looks to be
around 565m and moves very little for Wednesday. Our northern
counties likely won`t see 80 degrees for highs while the rest of the
area will be around 80.

Low temps will remain cool in the mid to upper 50`s with some deep
valleys dropping into the lower 50`s Wednesday and Thursday morning
across N-NE areas. To put this in perspective, average normal high
temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday through Sunday...

Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80`s by Friday before
our next chance of precip moves in from the west on Friday and
Saturday with low POPs being introduced at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Well...VFR conditions right now and will for most of the day.
However humid and unstable airmass will set the stage for isolate
afternoon tsra, and thermals for aviators in the pattern. The
airmass tonight will even be juicier in advance of a cold front
which will move through set for FROPA just after daybreak in SDF Mon
and late morning at LEX and late Monday at BWG.

As winds swing around from SE to SW today, this low level moisture
will work its way into the TAF sites, and with surface heating,
SCT035-045 should develop no later than 16Z.
Initial cloud formation could be in high end MVFR range, but should
not be enough to form a CIG before bases rise.

Forecast soundings show instability is sufficient for convection
today, with PWATS and dry mid level entrainment setting the stage
for isolated wet microbursts. POPS will be low but if any airport
should see one expect torrential downpours and very gusty winds with
mvfr VSBYS.

Will at least have TSRA vncty late day at SDF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JDG
Short Term.....MED/JDG
Long Term......MED/JDG
Aviation.......JDG




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261029
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
629 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Well... forecast is in good shape, but looking more in-depth at
high resolution models, it still appears that isolated POPs are
warranted beginning at 16z with a boundary lifting northeastward.
However, for this evening and tonight, models pointing to more
organized convection across the both and northeastern areas and a
distinct hint that some of the area may be gapped tonight along and
ahead of the cold front due to the time and better forcing to the
northeast.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday evening into
Monday...

Today...
Another hot and humid day is on tap for Sunday before a
cold front pushes through the region late Sunday night. Currently, a
warm front extends from the upper midwest through western Illinois
and southward along I-24 toward HOP.  As this front continues to
move northeastward, dewpoints will creep up into the low 70`s across
the CWA. Steep low level lapse rates will allow temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 90`s. This combined with muggy dewpoints
will push heat indices to 98-103 in the afternoon.
Currently have a web article posted about the heat and humidity
today and the weather story will address both storm chances and heat
and humidity.

A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible as the warm front
approaches during the mid afternoon. Although coverage will only be
around 20%, agree with SPC`s placement of marginal risk basically
along and north of I-64 as the any stronger storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds, very heavy rain, and CG strikes.
Soundings look like a classic hot sultry airmass with the the
potential for wet microbursts and a torrential downpour.

Tonight...
By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Threats associated with
these storms will be the same as they were in the afternoon, with
DCAPE values around 1000 J/KG. PWATS around 2" will allow storms to
produce very heavy rainfall. Additionally, light wind fields will
not allow storms to move much. This activity will slowly push across
southern Indiana by 00z and will reach the Ohio River around 04z and
continue to weaken as it progresses southward through daybreak
Monday.

Monday and Monday evening...

Scattered showers and storms will still be possible Monday morning
and then only across the the southern 1/2 of the CWA Monday. These
storms will not be as stout as the Sunday storms with more cloud
cover and less instability along the frontal zone. Cloud cover will
keep temps 5-8 degrees cooler keeping high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range for the most part.

Clouds will hang around behind the front before gradually clearing
from north to south. These slightly cooler readings with dewpoints
falling back in the 60`s will make for a more comfortable night
sleeping.

Kept very low POPS in Monday evening across the far southern tier
which matches up well with BNA and JKL.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...
The extended period will feature an mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A secondary cold
front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday ushering in much
cooler and more substantial drier air. Some models suggest there
could be very isolated showers and thunderstorms along this front,
but will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures will be in the low
to mid 80`s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Thursday...

A 594m ridge takes control over the Beehive State allowing a
refreshing trough across much of the eastern US. A transponding
surface high pressure builds behind the front, giving way to a very
nice midweek. The 1000-500mb thickness Tuesday night looks to be
around 565m and moves very little for Wednesday. Our northern
counties likely won`t see 80 degrees for highs while the rest of the
area will be around 80.

Low temps will remain cool in the mid to upper 50`s with some deep
valleys dropping into the lower 50`s Wednesday and Thursday morning
across N-NE areas. To put this in perspective, average normal high
temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday through Sunday...

Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80`s by Friday before
our next chance of precip moves in from the west on Friday and
Saturday with low POPs being introduced at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Well...VFR conditions right now and will for most of the day.
However humid and unstable airmass will set the stage for isolate
afternoon tsra, and thermals for aviators in the pattern. The
airmass tonight will even be juicier in advance of a cold front
which will move through set for FROPA just after daybreak in SDF Mon
and late morning at LEX and late Monday at BWG.

As winds swing around from SE to SW today, this low level moisture
will work its way into the TAF sites, and with surface heating,
SCT035-045 should develop no later than 16Z.
Initial cloud formation could be in high end MVFR range, but should
not be enough to form a CIG before bases rise.

Forecast soundings show instability is sufficient for convection
today, with PWATS and dry mid level entrainment setting the stage
for isolated wet microbursts. POPS will be low but if any airport
should see one expect torrential downpours and very gusty winds with
mvfr VSBYS.

Will at least have TSRA vncty late day at SDF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JDG
Short Term.....MED/JDG
Long Term......MED/JDG
Aviation.......JDG




000
FXUS63 KPAH 260835
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
335 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The PAH forecast area will continue to be under the influence of a
mid level ridge today, meaning a warm, moist, unstable atmosphere.
An added component for triggering more showers and tstms again
today will be approaching mid level shortwave energy in the
westerlies across the Midwest, and its attendant surface cold
front, which should be knocking on our northwest door tonight.
This combined with increasing low level moisture advection today
should allow showers and tstms to develop generally from west to
east possibly as early as 11-12Z. Some tstms may be strong to
severe in the afternoon due mainly to the robust low level lapse
rates, which will tend to increase updraft/downdraft intensities.
Outside of storms and their outflows, heat indices are expected
to exceed 100 everywhere today, and may peak at 105 in isolated
areas. Will address this with an SPS.

As mid level heights continue to fall tonight, and drier, cooler
air wedges under the existing airmass, PoPs will peak at around
50% in the northern half of the PAH forecast area. This trend
will continue into Monday for the southern half as the airmass
change continues. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The remainder of the short term will be dry and steadily cooler
under northwesterly flow aloft. A possible exception to dry
conditions will be Tuesday afternoon, when parts of the southern
half of the region may actually receive measurable rainfall, as a
reinforcing shot of cool, dense, high pressure air associated with
a Great Lakes shortwave surges in to our region from the north.
This signal has been present in mainly the GFS model data for days
now, and is presently shown in more than one model.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see, at least for a few days, an
end to the heat and humidity. Confidence remains high that we will
be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from
near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will
be very comfortable.

By later Thursday into Friday/Saturday, models tend to diverge in
their solutions, and confidence wanes. The 00z operational GFS and
the 00z Canadian models want to bring another cold front through
during the day Friday, and then dries out the atmosphere with
another cooler area of Canadian high pressure over the weekend.
ECMWF wants to hang the front up over the area and paints a warmer
and much wetter start to the weekend. Given the expected mid/upper
nwly flow, I tend to think the front would have a decent chc of
pushing on through. However, given the time of year and respect for
the EC out in time, will probably need to go with a model blend for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, although
with the approach of a frontal system VCTS possible at all sites
starting around 17-18Z and prob30 TSRA from 00Z through the end
of the period. Some model indications are that showers/tstms could
affect the KCGI TAF as early as 14Z. Light and variable winds
early this morning will pick up out of the south southwest AOB 10
knots after 15Z.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP/DB




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260735
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Surface high pressure is currently focused across New England and
the Mid-Atlantic states, with an area of low pressure centered
across southern Manitoba. A cold front extends south into
Minnesota and then southwest into the southern Plains states.
Aloft, an upper level high remain parked just east of the Arklatex
region, with a cutoff low spiraling towards western Ontario.
Eastern Kentucky is enjoying a mostly clear night, with
temperatures dipping into the mid to upper 60s across most
locations, with some patchy river valley fog present.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with
plenty of heat and humidity in offing today, as highs return to
around 90 degrees, while dew points creep up into the upper 60s,
making it feel like the mid 90s. The surface cold front will draw
closer today, with enough moisture return to allow for a few pop
ups west of I-75. Tonight will be balmy, with lows only making it
down to around 70 degrees. Scattered convection will threaten the
area during the overnight as the front moves in from the
northwest. Pops will peak during the day on Monday as the boundary
gradually pushes southeast across our area. High PWATs and
freezing levels, along with storm motions of around 10 kts or so,
will yield the threat of locally heavy rainers. Additionally,
some of the storms may produce strong wind gusts. Will continue
to highlight these threats in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The extended period is still on track to start out wet, as a cold
front slowly departs the area Monday night and Tuesday. The
precipitation should be mostly confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area, and will slowly taper off Monday night and Tuesday.
Once the front is gone, a ridge of high pressure is forecast to
settle over the region, bringing warm and dry weather to eastern
Kentucky from Tuesday night through the end of the week. There is
some uncertainty amongst the models as to whether or not we could
see another shot of rain on Friday, confidence in this scenario
panning out is so low at this time, that the decision was made to
leave Friday dry for now. The next chance for rain for eastern
Kentucky as of now looks to be during the upcoming weekend,
beginning Friday night, as an area of low pressure is progged to
move across the lower Tennessee valley. High temperatures
throughout the week are forecast to be around normal for the time
of year, with daily highs in the 80s. The one exception to this
looks to be Wednesday, when we may see highs only make it to
around 80 across the area. With low cloud cover and light winds
expected, we could see several nights of below normal
temperatures. A few nights will feature lows in the upper 50s and
lower 60s, while a few other nights during the upcoming work week
could also see lows in the mid to upper 60s, which would be
slightly above normal for some locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. Some IFR or worse
fog will likely form through 11z, before dissipating by 13z. This
will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Few to
scattered cumulus will develop during the day in the 4-5k feet agl
range. Isolated convection will also threaten south of a line from
KSME and KI35 during peak heating. Expect the areal coverage to
be limited enough to not mention in the TAF for now. Light and
variable winds will engage out of the southwest at around 5 kts
by mid-morning Sunday.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 260715
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday evening into
Monday...

Today...
Another hot and humid day is on tap for Sunday before a
cold front pushes through the region late Sunday night. Currently, a
warm front extends from the upper midwest through western Illinois
and southward along I-24 toward HOP.  As this front continues to
move northeastward, dewpoints will creep up into the low 70`s across
the CWA. Steep low level lapse rates will allow temperatures to
climb into the low to mid 90`s. This combined with muggy dewpoints
will push heat indices to 98-103 in the afternoon.
Currently have a web article posted about the heat and humidity
today and the weather story will address both storm chances and heat
and humidity.

A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible as the warm front
approaches during the mid afternoon. Although coverage will only be
around 20%, agree with SPC`s placement of marginal risk basically
along and north of I-64 as the any stronger storms will be capable
of producing damaging winds, very heavy rain, and CG strikes.
Soundings look like a classic hot sultry airmass with the the
potential for wet microbursts and a torrential downpour.

Tonight...
By Sunday evening, showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Threats associated with
these storms will be the same as they were in the afternoon, with
DCAPE values around 1000 J/KG. PWATS around 2" will allow storms to
produce very heavy rainfall. Additionally, light wind fields will
not allow storms to move much. This activity will slowly push across
southern Indiana by 00z and will reach the Ohio River around 04z and
continue to weaken as it progresses southward through daybreak
Monday.

Monday and Monday evening...

Scattered showers and storms will still be possible Monday morning
and then only across the the southern 1/2 of the CWA Monday. These
storms will not be as stout as the Sunday storms with more cloud
cover and less instability along the frontal zone. Cloud cover will
keep temps 5-8 degrees cooler keeping high temperatures in the 85 to
90 range for the most part.

Clouds will hang around behind the front before gradually clearing
from north to south. These slightly cooler readings with dewpoints
falling back in the 60`s will make for a more comfortable night
sleeping.

Kept very low POPS in Monday evening across the far southern tier
which matches up well with BNA and JKL.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Sun Jun 26 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

Tuesday...
The extended period will feature an mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. A secondary cold
front will push through the Ohio Valley Tuesday ushering in much
cooler and more substantial drier air. Some models suggest there
could be very isolated showers and thunderstorms along this front,
but will keep forecast dry for now. Temperatures will be in the low
to mid 80`s on Tuesday.

Tuesday night into Thursday...

A 594m ridge takes control over the Beehive State allowing a
refreshing trough across much of the eastern US. A corresponding
surface high pressure builds behind the front, giving way to a
very nice midweek. The 1000-500mb thickness Tuesday night looks to
be around 565m and moves very little for Wednesday. Our northern
counties likely won`t see 80 degrees for highs while the rest of
the area will be around 80.

Low temps will remain cool in the mid to upper 50`s with some deep
valleys dropping into the lower 50`s Wednesday and Thursday morning
across N-NE areas. To put this in perspective, average normal high
temperatures for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal
lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday through Sunday...

Temperatures will return to the mid to upper 80`s by Friday before
our next chance of precip moves in from the west on Friday and
Saturday with low POPs being introduced at the moment.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Clear skies at all TAF sites at present time, but juicier air will
move back in today in advance of a cold front set to move through
beyond this 24-hr forecast time frame.

A large area of 70+ dew points lies to the south and west of central
KY at 05Z.  As winds swing around from SE to SW today, this low
level moisture will work its way into the TAF sites, and with
surface heating, SCT035-045 should develop no later than 16Z.
Initial cloud formation could be in high end MVFR range, but should
not be enough to form a CIG before bases rise.

Forecast soundings show instability is sufficient for convection
today, but dynamic forcing is lacking and despite the Gulf opening
up, light winds will limit the amount of moisture, so only isolated
SHRA and TS expected, so have included VCSH at BWG, with a PROB30
for thunder at SDF.  LEX should stay out of precip this forecast
period.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MED/JDG
Long Term.........MED/JDG
Aviation..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 260551
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday...

 A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY
and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to
near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For
tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the
mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western
forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak
but not enough to include in the forecast at this time.

On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will
import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result
in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100
west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated
diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern
areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating.

For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great
Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the
Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along
and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate
southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central
KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based
instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability
will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great.
Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower
and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are
progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest
instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e.,
some storms could produce high rainfall rates.

On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances
diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and
rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still
rise appreciably through the 80s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern
states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any
residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area
Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s.

A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our
area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany
the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an
appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high
pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley
behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly
cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then
only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating
back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the
period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures
for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop
into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of
June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in
store Tuesday through Friday next week.

By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated
thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Clear skies at all TAF sites at present time, but juicier air will
move back in today in advance of a cold front set to move through
beyond this 24-hr forecast time frame.

A large area of 70+ dew points lies to the south and west of central
KY at 05Z.  As winds swing around from SE to SW today, this low
level moisture will work its way into the TAF sites, and with
surface heating, SCT035-045 should develop no later than 16Z.
Initial cloud formation could be in high end MVFR range, but should
not be enough to form a CIG before bases rise.

Forecast soundings show instability is sufficient for convection
today, but dynamic forcing is lacking and despite the Gulf opening
up, light winds will limit the amount of moisture, so only isolated
SHRA and TS expected, so have included VCSH at BWG, with a PROB30
for thunder at SDF.  LEX should stay out of precip this forecast
period.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 260551
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
151 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday...

 A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY
and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to
near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For
tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the
mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western
forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak
but not enough to include in the forecast at this time.

On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will
import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result
in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100
west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated
diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern
areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating.

For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great
Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the
Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along
and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate
southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central
KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based
instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability
will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great.
Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower
and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are
progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest
instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e.,
some storms could produce high rainfall rates.

On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances
diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and
rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still
rise appreciably through the 80s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern
states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any
residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area
Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s.

A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our
area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany
the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an
appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high
pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley
behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly
cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then
only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating
back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the
period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures
for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop
into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of
June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in
store Tuesday through Friday next week.

By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated
thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 150 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2016

Clear skies at all TAF sites at present time, but juicier air will
move back in today in advance of a cold front set to move through
beyond this 24-hr forecast time frame.

A large area of 70+ dew points lies to the south and west of central
KY at 05Z.  As winds swing around from SE to SW today, this low
level moisture will work its way into the TAF sites, and with
surface heating, SCT035-045 should develop no later than 16Z.
Initial cloud formation could be in high end MVFR range, but should
not be enough to form a CIG before bases rise.

Forecast soundings show instability is sufficient for convection
today, but dynamic forcing is lacking and despite the Gulf opening
up, light winds will limit the amount of moisture, so only isolated
SHRA and TS expected, so have included VCSH at BWG, with a PROB30
for thunder at SDF.  LEX should stay out of precip this forecast
period.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260548 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
148 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 148 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

The forecast remains on track. Freshened up the hourly
temperatures and dew points to align better with the current
trends in observations.

UPDATE Issued at 1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Temperatures have cooled a little quicker than expected this
evening, but expecting this trend to slow as dewpoints remain in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Patchy river valley fog still in play
tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies
overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said,
not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development
tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into
the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across
portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater
rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still
looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday
morning in a decoupled environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period. Some IFR or worse
fog will likely form through 11z, before dissipating by 13z. This
will be more restricted to the deeper river valleys. Few to
scattered cumulus will develop during the day in the 4-5k feet agl
range. Isolated convection will also threaten south of a line from
KSME and KI35 during peak heating. Expect the areal coverage to
be limited enough to not mention in the TAF for now. Light and
variable winds will engage out of the southwest at around 5 kts
by mid-morning Sunday.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 260438 AAB
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with
loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early
tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the
northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances
through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a
little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but
generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north
and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our
best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday
with the passage of the cold front.

Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front.
Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on
Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will
keep heat indices below 100 degrees.

Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off
to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew
points will be dropping off Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO
PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel
flow.  A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the
flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the
area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This
adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for
intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing
associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the
northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over
Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West
Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal
convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday,
the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will
lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, although
with the approach of a frontal system VCTS possible at all sites
starting around 17-18Z and prob30 TSRA from 00Z through the end
of the period. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 10 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260248
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1048 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Temperatures have cooled a little quicker than expected this
evening, but expecting this trend to slow as dewpoints remain in
the mid 60s to low 70s. Patchy river valley fog still in play
tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies
overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said,
not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development
tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into
the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across
portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater
rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still
looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday
morning in a decoupled environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday
afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper
river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the
low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far
eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall
Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a
better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher
elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub-
VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this
evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining
near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward
Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to
warrant nil mention pre-00Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 260152
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
952 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Dewpoint boundary draped near or just SW of Interstate 24 sparked
convection over western Kentucky earlier, but that has mostly
dissipated and will not be a factor this far east overnight. Still
expecting dewpoints to recover into the lower 70s in many places on
Sunday. Forecast is pretty well on track, but with heat index values
expected to exceed 100 degrees along and west of I-65, will ratchet
up the emphasis on heat in our messaging.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday...

 A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY
and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to
near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For
tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the
mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western
forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak
but not enough to include in the forecast at this time.

On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will
import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result
in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100
west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated
diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern
areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating.

For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great
Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the
Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along
and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate
southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central
KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based
instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability
will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great.
Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower
and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are
progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest
instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e.,
some storms could produce high rainfall rates.

On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances
diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and
rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still
rise appreciably through the 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern
states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any
residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area
Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s.

A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our
area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany
the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an
appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high
pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley
behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly
cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then
only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating
back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the
period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures
for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop
into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of
June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in
store Tuesday through Friday next week.

By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated
thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Only anticipated restriction is MVFR visibility in BWG for a few hrs
around daybreak. Moisture return already seems to be underway there,
but temps do not appear poised to radiate down to the current
dewpoint, so will not take it down any lower. Drier column over SDF
and LEX will keep those terminals VFR.

SW winds will pick up by midday Sun with deeper mixing, but remain
just shy of 10 kt. Will limit clouds to diurnal cu and/or developing
cirrus. Approaching cold front will get closer to SDF in the
planning period, but not high enough probabilities to warrant any
precip in the TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....TWF
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260006
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies
overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said,
not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development
tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into
the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across
portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater
rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still
looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday
morning in a decoupled environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday
afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper
river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the
low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far
eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall
Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a
better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher
elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub-
VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this
evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining
near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward
Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to
warrant nil mention pre-00Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260006
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Dissipation of diurnal cumulus field will yield clear skies
overnight as surface ridge moves off to the east. That being said,
not anticipating much in the way of widespread fog development
tonight as crossover temperatures were largely able to drop into
the low-mid 60s this afternoon. Exception to this was across
portions of northeastern and far eastern Kentucky where greater
rainfall amounts were observed Thursday. Patchy development still
looks probable in deeper river valleys overnight into Sunday
morning in a decoupled environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 806 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

VFR conditions expected to persist this evening through Sunday
afternoon. Patchy fog looks to be largely confined to deeper
river valleys as crossover temperatures were able to mix into the
low-mid 60s Saturday afternoon. Portions of northeast and far
eastern Kentucky, who experienced greater amounts of rainfall
Thursday, remained slightly more moist thus perhaps leading to a
better chance of lowering visibilities occurring at higher
elevations. Nonetheless, potential looks to be rather low for sub-
VFR visibilities at this time. Light east/southeast winds this
evening will veer southwesterly Sunday afternoon while remaining
near or below 5 knots. Thunderstorms will begin to nudge eastward
Sunday afternoon, but look to remain low enough in coverage to
warrant nil mention pre-00Z.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 252310 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with
loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early
tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the
northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances
through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a
little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but
generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north
and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our
best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday
with the passage of the cold front.

Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front.
Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on
Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will
keep heat indices below 100 degrees.

Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off
to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew
points will be dropping off Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO
PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel
flow.  A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the
flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the
area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This
adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for
intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing
associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the
northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over
Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West
Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal
convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday,
the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will
lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms early this evening expected to
continue to weaken/dissipate with no impact to the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected at all sites through the period, although VCTS
possible at all sites starting around 17-18Z with the approach of
a frontal system. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up
out of the south southwest AOB 10 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 252310 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
610 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with
loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early
tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the
northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances
through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a
little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but
generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north
and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our
best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday
with the passage of the cold front.

Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front.
Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on
Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will
keep heat indices below 100 degrees.

Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off
to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew
points will be dropping off Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO
PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel
flow.  A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the
flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the
area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This
adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for
intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing
associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the
northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over
Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West
Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal
convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday,
the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will
lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Diurnal showers and thunderstorms early this evening expected to
continue to weaken/dissipate with no impact to the TAF sites. VFR
conditions expected at all sites through the period, although VCTS
possible at all sites starting around 17-18Z with the approach of
a frontal system. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up
out of the south southwest AOB 10 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 252303
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
703 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday...

 A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY
and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to
near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For
tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the
mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western
forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak
but not enough to include in the forecast at this time.

On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will
import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result
in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100
west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated
diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern
areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating.

For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great
Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the
Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along
and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate
southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central
KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based
instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability
will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great.
Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower
and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are
progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest
instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e.,
some storms could produce high rainfall rates.

On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances
diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and
rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still
rise appreciably through the 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern
states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any
residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area
Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s.

A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our
area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany
the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an
appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high
pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley
behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly
cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then
only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating
back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the
period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures
for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop
into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of
June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in
store Tuesday through Friday next week.

By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated
thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Only anticipated restriction is MVFR visibility in BWG for a few hrs
around daybreak. Moisture return already seems to be underway there,
but temps do not appear poised to radiate down to the current
dewpoint, so will not take it down any lower. Drier column over SDF
and LEX will keep those terminals VFR.

SW winds will pick up by midday Sun with deeper mixing, but remain
just shy of 10 kt. Will limit clouds to diurnal cu and/or developing
cirrus. Approaching cold front will get closer to SDF in the
planning period, but not high enough probabilities to warrant any
precip in the TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 252303
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
703 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday...

 A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY
and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to
near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For
tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the
mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western
forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak
but not enough to include in the forecast at this time.

On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will
import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result
in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100
west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated
diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern
areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating.

For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great
Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the
Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along
and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate
southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central
KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based
instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability
will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great.
Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower
and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are
progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest
instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e.,
some storms could produce high rainfall rates.

On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances
diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and
rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still
rise appreciably through the 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern
states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any
residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area
Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s.

A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our
area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany
the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an
appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high
pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley
behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly
cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then
only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating
back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the
period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures
for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop
into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of
June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in
store Tuesday through Friday next week.

By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated
thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Only anticipated restriction is MVFR visibility in BWG for a few hrs
around daybreak. Moisture return already seems to be underway there,
but temps do not appear poised to radiate down to the current
dewpoint, so will not take it down any lower. Drier column over SDF
and LEX will keep those terminals VFR.

SW winds will pick up by midday Sun with deeper mixing, but remain
just shy of 10 kt. Will limit clouds to diurnal cu and/or developing
cirrus. Approaching cold front will get closer to SDF in the
planning period, but not high enough probabilities to warrant any
precip in the TAF.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 252109
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 509 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

A cold front will be moving into the region from the northwest as
the period starts. Ample moisture is expected to arrive ahead of
the front to support showers and thunderstorms. Coverage should
peak with daytime heating as the front moves through, and likely
pops have been used area wide. Shear does not look impressive, but
instability could be in the neighborhood of 2K J/Kg, and a few
gusty storms can not be ruled out. The bigger threat could be
heavy rainfall, since steering currents will be relatively weak
and precipitable H2O is expected to peak near 2". Most of the
precip will move out Monday evening as the effective front and
deep moisture settle to our south.

Drier air will take a while to make its way in at the surface, but
as surface high pressure slowly moves in from the northwest under
an amplifying eastern CONUS trough, a more comfortable air mass
should finally be realized by midweek. It looks like it will then
hang around through the remainder of the week, but will eventually
start to modify. The ECMWF does generate some light precip, mainly
Friday night and Saturday, as the upper trough deepens and a
poorly resolved cold front approaches. The GFS and the GFS
ensemble hold off on most of this precip, and have opted for
silent 10 percent pops in the local forecast at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT.
Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than
is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain
limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft.
Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead
to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the
coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end
MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the
sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense
fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds
through the period will remain light and variable.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KPAH 252017
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with
loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early
tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the
northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances
through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a
little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but
generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north
and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our
best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday
with the passage of the cold front.

Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front.
Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on
Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will
keep heat indices below 100 degrees.

Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off
to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew
points will be dropping off Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO
PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel
flow.  A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the
flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the
area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This
adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for
intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing
associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the
northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over
Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West
Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal
convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday,
the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will
lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Continued with VCTS at KCGI and KPAH until 23z, then convection
should dissipate. Expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites
overnight into Sunday morning. A very small chance of showers and
storms will be possible late in the TAF period at KCGI and KEVV
with the approach of a cold front, but chances are too small to
include in the TAFs. Southwest winds around 7 kts will become
light overnight, then increase to around 5 kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KPAH 252017
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
317 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models show a quick decrease in convection by this evening with
loss of daytime heating. Should remain quiet tonight into early
tomorrow morning, then an approaching cold front from the
northwest will gradually increase shower and thunderstorm chances
through the day Sunday into Sunday night. GFS and Canadian are a
little faster and indicate more coverage than the ECMWF, but
generally solutions are in okay agreement. Went with slight to low
chance pops for showers and thunderstorms in southern Illinois and
southeast Missouri by late Sunday morning, then good chances north
and west to slight chances southeast by late Sunday afternoon. Our
best chances across the region will be Sunday night into Monday
with the passage of the cold front.

Conditions will remain hot and muggy ahead of the cold front.
Sunday high temperatures will again reach the lower 90s with heat
indices in the 100 to 105 degree range. Cloud cover/convection on
Monday will drop high temperatures back a few degrees, which will
keep heat indices below 100 degrees.

Dry conditions will return by Monday night with the cold front off
to our south. As drier air begins to infiltrate the area, dew
points will be dropping off Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

At the beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday) the WFO
PAH forecast area is just south of the NW to SE oriented midlevel
flow.  A low ejecting from the Great Lakes toward Maine sharpens the
flow aloft, allowing for 1) channeled vorticity advection into the
area and slight cold air advection from the northeast. This
adjustment will take place on Wednesday, setting the stage for
intermittent disturbances to pass across the area. The forcing
associated with these passing vorticity maxes embedded in the
northwest flow will serve to sharpen the theta-e gradient over
Southeast Missouri, Southwest Illinois and the Purchase area of West
Kentucky by Thursday, leading to isolated/scattered diurnal
convection. As the flow becomes more zonal on Friday into Saturday,
the frequency of vort max interactions will take place. This will
lead to more scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms to end
the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Continued with VCTS at KCGI and KPAH until 23z, then convection
should dissipate. Expect VFR conditions across all TAF sites
overnight into Sunday morning. A very small chance of showers and
storms will be possible late in the TAF period at KCGI and KEVV
with the approach of a cold front, but chances are too small to
include in the TAFs. Southwest winds around 7 kts will become
light overnight, then increase to around 5 kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RST




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251930
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface analysis indicates high pressure centered across the Mid
Atlantic with broad surface high stretching south into the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. This along with rising heights will lead
to tranquil conditions across eastern Kentucky. We have seen some
diurnally driven CU this afternoon but these will die off as we
loose the afternoon heating. Speaking of heating as 592 height has
spread back northeast and we have seen temperatures warm back into
the mid to upper 80s. Therefore overall forecast looks on track
through the evening.

Tonight the surface high will continue to control as it gradual
shift south and east. Models seem to be less robust on the fog
potential tonight and therefore scaled that back from previous
night. Right now seems like best chances will be in the deeper
river valleys. Otherwise temps are expected to bottom out in the
mid to upper 60s.

Sunday into Sunday night attention begins to focus on a generally
weak front that will slowly progress east through the latter part
of the short term period. Sunday as surface high moves east
additional return flow sets in and we see continued warm air
advection. Temps respond by topping out in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Overall most spots should remain dry on Sunday, but can not
rule out some slight pops in the west/SW due to the rising PWATS
on Sunday afternoon. The GFS would suggest the potential for some
Cumberland Plateau development and these would have the potential
to migrate into the Cumberland River area. Right now the models
are a bit all over the place with precip going into Sunday night.
Right now will lean on a blend approach given the uncertainty, but
the PWATS do increase going toward 12Z which would translate to
decent potential for pops. Blend stuck with chance and for now
that would seem to be the best way tot go. Temps should remain
uniform Sunday given increase in cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Available shortly...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT.
Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than
is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain
limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft.
Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead
to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the
coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end
MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the
sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense
fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds
through the period will remain light and variable.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251915
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
315 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Hot on Sunday...thunderstorms possible Sunday night into Monday...

 A warm mostly sunny afternoon is in progress across central KY
and south-central IN. Temperatures currently range in the mid 80s to
near 90 and will rise a couple/few more degrees late this afternoon.
Surface dewpoints generally are mid 60s east and upper 60s west. For
tonight, expect a mostly clear sky with light wind and lows in the
mid to upper 60s over the Bluegrass to lower 70s in our western
forecast area. There could be patchy light fog or haze by daybreak
but not enough to include in the forecast at this time.

On Sunday, surface winds will become south to southwest which will
import more humidity across the region. Expect afternoon highs in
the lower to mid 90s, along with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s
over the Bluegrass region to lower 70s elsewhere. This will result
in maximum afternoon heat indices from 95 to 100 east to around 100
west. Skies will be partly sunny. In the heat of the day, isolated
diurnal thunderstorms could develop mainly over western and northern
areas. Any stray storms should then dissipate in the evening with
loss of heating.

For Sunday night, a shortwave moving east across the northern Great
Lakes states will support a cold front moving southeast over the
Ohio Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that develop along
and south of the front to our north Sunday afternoon will propagate
southeast into southern IN late Sunday evening and parts of central
KY overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Surface-based
instability will diminish nocturnally but some elevated instability
will still exist. Also, wind/shear fields will not be great.
Therefore, severe storms are not expected with mainly general shower
and thunderstorm activity expected. Precipitable water values are
progged to rise to around 2 inches, so this combined with modest
instability/CAPE will make for efficient rainfall producers, i.e.,
some storms could produce high rainfall rates.

On Monday, the front will continue to settle southeast across the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are
expected, especially over central KY, with precipitation chances
diminishing as the day wears on over southern IN. The clouds and
rain will keep temperatures down somewhat, although should still
rise appreciably through the 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Much cooler with low humidity mid to late week...

The extended period will feature an average mid-level trough
position over the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley and eastern
states. The front on Monday will clear the region Monday night. Any
residual showers over far southeastern parts of our forecast area
Monday evening will move out quickly. Expect lows in the 60s.

A stronger secondary cold front then will move into and through our
area from the north on Tuesday. A band of some clouds may accompany
the front but it should move through dry. This front will bring an
appreciable change in temperatures and humidity. With surface high
pressure building in and remaining in control over the Ohio Valley
behind this front, dry weather will prevail with a clear to partly
cloudy sky from Tuesday though Friday.

High temperatures Tuesday should be in the lower and mid 80s, then
only in the upper 70s and lower 80s Wednesday, before moderating
back into the lower and mid 80s Friday afternoon. Low temperatures
should range from the mid 50s to lower 60s in most areas during the
period. To put this in perspective, average normal high temperatures
for this time of year are in the upper 80s with normal lows in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Besides the cooler temperatures, surface dewpoints also will drop
into the 50s by Wednesday which is anonymously low for the end of
June. Bottom line, some very pleasant early summer weather is in
store Tuesday through Friday next week.

By next Saturday, some moisture should return with isolated
thunderstorms possible and highs in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming forecast
period.  Light and variable winds will be seen at the terminals this
afternoon.  A diurnal Cu field will likely develop around FL040-060
but dissipate around sunset.  Clear skies and light winds are
expected tonight.  A period of MVFR vsbys will be possible at KBWG
between 26/08-12Z.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........TWF
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251732
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Fog has cleared and now we have some afternoon CU based on obs and
vis sat. These will remain fair weather CU, given surface high
pressure skirting the region. Also stout inversion seen in the
model sounding data will likely aid in inhibiting much in the way
of vertical growth. Other than the clouds the warm temps will
continue to build across the region, as the 591 height line creeps
NE across the Ohio Valley. No major changes needed this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog
has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly
sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing
into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the
grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect
the clearing of the fog.

UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Sites this afternoon are VFR with scattered CU at or around 4 KFT.
Some of the sites have been reporting a bit more cloud cover than
is realistically been seen. These CU are expected to remain
limited in their vertical growth given inversion layer aloft.
Otherwise we look to clear out once again tonight which could lead
to more fog potential, but we are not looking for quite the
coverage or density seen yesterday. Did opt to add some high end
MVFR VIS overnight and toward dawn just based on some of the
sounding data. The areas that are at most risk for patchy dense
fog tonight will be the deeper river valleys. Overall winds
through the period will remain light and variable.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251712
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this
morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of
south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this
afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints
exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should
slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern
Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have
raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in
some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon.
Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast
tonight or Sunday at this time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances
late Sunday.

Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass
today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be
over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY.  The positives for
the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main
inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution
models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be
watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops.

For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS
at press time.

For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper
80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to
moist ground from this past weeks rains.

The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in
the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep
area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties.

Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Sunday...

Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down
as 560m low over Big Sky Country.  This will drive a cold front
towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding
long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z.  Plan to
do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most
of the precip til Sunday evening.

Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower
90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing
into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with
low 100s across southern KY.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday...
...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week...

Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch
PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic
Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the
stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered
convection from 22-09z.

Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely
heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very
reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are
extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry
airmass, localized flooding is possible.

Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn
CWA.

Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms
especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA.  Highs Monday look
to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover.  overnight
lows in the lower 70s.

Tue-Thu...

After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much
drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop
precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out
dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes
you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees
below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday...
Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will
keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low
the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the
desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and
better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be
in the 50s.

Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster)

The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part
of the week.  The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out
west and a baggy trough axis in the east.  This will place the Ohio
Valley in a notorious northwest flow.  During this time, we`ll have
to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge
and then riding down into the Ohio Valley.  While there has been a
constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday,
the models really struggle with these type flow regimes.
Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time.
Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July
with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming forecast
period.  Light and variable winds will be seen at the terminals this
afternoon.  A diurnal Cu field will likely develop around FL040-060
but dissipate around sunset.  Clear skies and light winds are
expected tonight.  A period of MVFR vsbys will be possible at KBWG
between 26/08-12Z.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....JDG
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251712
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
112 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this
morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of
south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this
afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints
exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should
slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern
Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have
raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in
some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon.
Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast
tonight or Sunday at this time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances
late Sunday.

Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass
today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be
over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY.  The positives for
the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main
inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution
models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be
watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops.

For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS
at press time.

For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper
80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to
moist ground from this past weeks rains.

The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in
the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep
area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties.

Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Sunday...

Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down
as 560m low over Big Sky Country.  This will drive a cold front
towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding
long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z.  Plan to
do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most
of the precip til Sunday evening.

Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower
90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing
into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with
low 100s across southern KY.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday...
...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week...

Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch
PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic
Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the
stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered
convection from 22-09z.

Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely
heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very
reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are
extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry
airmass, localized flooding is possible.

Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn
CWA.

Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms
especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA.  Highs Monday look
to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover.  overnight
lows in the lower 70s.

Tue-Thu...

After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much
drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop
precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out
dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes
you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees
below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday...
Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will
keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low
the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the
desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and
better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be
in the 50s.

Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster)

The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part
of the week.  The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out
west and a baggy trough axis in the east.  This will place the Ohio
Valley in a notorious northwest flow.  During this time, we`ll have
to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge
and then riding down into the Ohio Valley.  While there has been a
constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday,
the models really struggle with these type flow regimes.
Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time.
Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July
with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through much of the upcoming forecast
period.  Light and variable winds will be seen at the terminals this
afternoon.  A diurnal Cu field will likely develop around FL040-060
but dissipate around sunset.  Clear skies and light winds are
expected tonight.  A period of MVFR vsbys will be possible at KBWG
between 26/08-12Z.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....JDG
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......MJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251641
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1241 PM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Fog has cleared and now we have some afternoon CU based on obs and
vis sat. These will remain fair weather CU, given surface high
pressure skirting the region. Also stout inversion seen in the
model sounding data will likely aid in inhibiting much in the way
of vertical growth. Other than the clouds the warm temps will
continue to build across the region, as the 591 height line creeps
NE across the Ohio Valley. No major changes needed this update.

UPDATE Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog
has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly
sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing
into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the
grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect
the clearing of the fog.

UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR
conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing
during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again
tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted
to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the
period as well.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251435
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1035 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this
morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of
south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this
afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints
exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should
slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern
Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have
raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in
some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon.
Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast
tonight or Sunday at this time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances
late Sunday.

Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass
today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be
over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY.  The positives for
the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main
inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution
models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be
watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops.

For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS
at press time.

For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper
80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to
moist ground from this past weeks rains.

The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in
the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep
area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties.

Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Sunday...

Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down
as 560m low over Big Sky Country.  This will drive a cold front
towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding
long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z.  Plan to
do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most
of the precip til Sunday evening.

Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower
90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing
into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with
low 100s across southern KY.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday...
...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week...

Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch
PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic
Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the
stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered
convection from 22-09z.

Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely
heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very
reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are
extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry
airmass, localized flooding is possible.

Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn
CWA.

Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms
especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA.  Highs Monday look
to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover.  overnight
lows in the lower 70s.

Tue-Thu...

After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much
drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop
precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out
dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes
you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees
below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday...
Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will
keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low
the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the
desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and
better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be
in the 50s.

Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster)

The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part
of the week.  The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out
west and a baggy trough axis in the east.  This will place the Ohio
Valley in a notorious northwest flow.  During this time, we`ll have
to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge
and then riding down into the Ohio Valley.  While there has been a
constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday,
the models really struggle with these type flow regimes.
Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time.
Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July
with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light
patchy fog may be possible for BWG and LEX, but will quickly burn
off in the next hour or two.

For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at
FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. For tonight, expect clear
conditions with light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....JDG
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......KJD




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251435
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1035 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A sunny sky exists over much of central KY and south-central IN this
morning, with the exception of some clouds over western parts of
south-central KY. This area should remain partly sunny this
afternoon with a mostly sunny sky elsewhere. Lower surface dewpoints
exist over northern KY, and some of this lower humidity air should
slip into the eastern parts of south-central IN and the northern
Bluegrass. However, it should remain fairly humid elsewhere. Have
raised maximum high temperatures this afternoon a degree or two in
some areas so it will definitely be a very warm afternoon.
Conditions should remain dry. No real changes to the forecast
tonight or Sunday at this time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances
late Sunday.

Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass
today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be
over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY.  The positives for
the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main
inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution
models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be
watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops.

For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS
at press time.

For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper
80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to
moist ground from this past weeks rains.

The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in
the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep
area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties.

Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Sunday...

Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down
as 560m low over Big Sky Country.  This will drive a cold front
towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding
long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z.  Plan to
do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most
of the precip til Sunday evening.

Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower
90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing
into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with
low 100s across southern KY.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday...
...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week...

Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch
PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic
Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the
stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered
convection from 22-09z.

Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely
heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very
reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are
extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry
airmass, localized flooding is possible.

Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn
CWA.

Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms
especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA.  Highs Monday look
to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover.  overnight
lows in the lower 70s.

Tue-Thu...

After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much
drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop
precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out
dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes
you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees
below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday...
Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will
keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low
the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the
desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and
better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be
in the 50s.

Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster)

The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part
of the week.  The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out
west and a baggy trough axis in the east.  This will place the Ohio
Valley in a notorious northwest flow.  During this time, we`ll have
to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge
and then riding down into the Ohio Valley.  While there has been a
constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday,
the models really struggle with these type flow regimes.
Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time.
Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July
with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light
patchy fog may be possible for BWG and LEX, but will quickly burn
off in the next hour or two.

For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at
FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. For tonight, expect clear
conditions with light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........TWF
Short Term.....JDG
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......KJD




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251412
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog
has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly
sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing
into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the
grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect
the clearing of the fog.

UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR
conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing
during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again
tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted
to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the
period as well.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251412
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Vis sat and regional webcams this morning indicate most of the fog
has lifted or burnt off this morning. We are left with mostly
sunny skies in the wake of the fog and temperatures are climbing
into the mid to upper 70s. This update only minor changes to the
grids were needed, but did update zone forecast/HWO to reflect
the clearing of the fog.

UPDATE Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR
conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing
during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again
tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted
to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the
period as well.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest
to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through
the region and become diffuse during the day. This boundary will
be motivated by a minor vort max skipping through the otherwise
anticyclonic flow aloft. Most of the energy associated with the
vort will be during the morning hours, after which the models
indicate the feature will damp out as it moves eastward. The front
will be the focus for some low level lift in a moist and unstable
atmosphere (3-4k j/kg CAPE). Therefore, widely scattered to
scattered showers and tstms should develop by late morning mainly
west of the MS River, but also possibly in southwestern IL and the
Purchase area of KY. However, by late afternoon, the coverage of
deep moist convection should diminish rapidly with the loss of
upper support. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out
after 00Z, but we will continue to hold PoPs below the mentionable
level (15%) for tonight.

As the atmosphere destabilizes again during the day Sunday, a
northern stream shortwave centered in southern Canada is forecast
to be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This will tend to lower
mid level heights to our north and push a surface boundary toward
the PAH forecast area. Scattered showers and tstms should be
expected Sunday, mainly for southeastern MO, southern IL, and
southwestern IN. A storm or two could be strong there.

The frontal boundary will sink southward partially through the
region Sunday night, providing focus for deep moist convection to
continue mainly ahead of it, albeit with a slowly stabilizing
atmosphere. Slight to chance PoPs were maintained. As
significantly drier, cooler air deepens behind the front Monday,
pcpn will end rapidly from north to south. The southern half of
our region has the highest PoPs then, up to 50%.

Surface dewpoints are expected to surge back into the lower 70s by
late today, even in southwestern IN. Expect lows in the tepid
middle 70s this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 90s,
dropping off a bit Monday. Heat indices will probably exceed 100
for the southwestern half of the region today, and the whole
region Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100
meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a
corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude.

Confidence is high that we will be experiencing below normal temps
by mid week, with high temps from near 80 to the lower half of the
80s. Likewise, humidity levels will be very comfortable. By
Thursday, the models continue to dive a vigorous short wave of
energy across the Missouri/mid Mississippi River Valley regions
within broad nwly flow aloft. Thinking is that most of the energy
(and hence pops) will stay generally west and south of our area, and
the atmosphere will be quite dry in the lower levels. Hence, will
keep rain/shower chances on the low side, generally less than 30
percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions can be expected in the next 24 hrs at the TAF sites.
As a weak warm front bisecting the region moves northeastward today,
light winds will gain a southerly component. Though there may be
some showers/tstms in the western half of the region, probabilities
were not high enough to include in the KCGI/KPAH TAFs.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 251140
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak warm front, bisecting the PAH forecast area from northwest
to southeast early today, is expected to move northeastward through
the region and become diffuse during the day. This boundary will
be motivated by a minor vort max skipping through the otherwise
anticyclonic flow aloft. Most of the energy associated with the
vort will be during the morning hours, after which the models
indicate the feature will damp out as it moves eastward. The front
will be the focus for some low level lift in a moist and unstable
atmosphere (3-4k j/kg CAPE). Therefore, widely scattered to
scattered showers and tstms should develop by late morning mainly
west of the MS River, but also possibly in southwestern IL and the
Purchase area of KY. However, by late afternoon, the coverage of
deep moist convection should diminish rapidly with the loss of
upper support. An isolated shower or tstm cannot be ruled out
after 00Z, but we will continue to hold PoPs below the mentionable
level (15%) for tonight.

As the atmosphere destabilizes again during the day Sunday, a
northern stream shortwave centered in southern Canada is forecast
to be in the vicinity of the Great Lakes. This will tend to lower
mid level heights to our north and push a surface boundary toward
the PAH forecast area. Scattered showers and tstms should be
expected Sunday, mainly for southeastern MO, southern IL, and
southwestern IN. A storm or two could be strong there.

The frontal boundary will sink southward partially through the
region Sunday night, providing focus for deep moist convection to
continue mainly ahead of it, albeit with a slowly stabilizing
atmosphere. Slight to chance PoPs were maintained. As
significantly drier, cooler air deepens behind the front Monday,
pcpn will end rapidly from north to south. The southern half of
our region has the highest PoPs then, up to 50%.

Surface dewpoints are expected to surge back into the lower 70s by
late today, even in southwestern IN. Expect lows in the tepid
middle 70s this weekend, with highs in the lower half of the 90s,
dropping off a bit Monday. Heat indices will probably exceed 100
for the southwestern half of the region today, and the whole
region Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see H5 heights drop almost 100
meters by 12Z Tuesday, with the 1000-500 mb thermal field showing a
corresponding thinning by a similar magnitude.

Confidence is high that we will be experiencing below normal temps
by mid week, with high temps from near 80 to the lower half of the
80s. Likewise, humidity levels will be very comfortable. By
Thursday, the models continue to dive a vigorous short wave of
energy across the Missouri/mid Mississippi River Valley regions
within broad nwly flow aloft. Thinking is that most of the energy
(and hence pops) will stay generally west and south of our area, and
the atmosphere will be quite dry in the lower levels. Hence, will
keep rain/shower chances on the low side, generally less than 30
percent.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR conditions can be expected in the next 24 hrs at the TAF sites.
As a weak warm front bisecting the region moves northeastward today,
light winds will gain a southerly component. Though there may be
some showers/tstms in the western half of the region, probabilities
were not high enough to include in the KCGI/KPAH TAFs.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251118 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR
conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing
during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again
tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted
to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the
period as well.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251118 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Freshened up the hourly temperatures, dew points, and sky cover to
align better with the current trends in observations, otherwise
the forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

Surface high pressure is currently residing across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley regions, with the remnant weak frontal boundary
draped from western Tennessee down across northern Alabama and
Georgia. Aloft, a stout upper level ridge is parked near the
Arklatex region, with an upper level low making its way across the
Continental Divide.

The weekend is shaping up to be mostly dry and very warm across
eastern Kentucky, as the upper level ridge will be building in
across the region. Today will feature a foggy start, before
plenty of sunshine breaks through by the mid-morning and through
the rest of the day. Highs will top out in the upper 80s, with
perhaps a few spots reaching the 90 degree mark. Tonight will
feature mostly clear skies, and temperatures similar to early this
morning, generally mid 60s. The fog will also likely be less
extensive.

Sunday will see highs of around 90 degrees. A bit more moisture
will also be returning as a cold front moves southeast into the
Ohio Valley. The models continue to suggest a few pop ups near the
Cumberland Plateau, so will keep some slight chances going late in
the day near that area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

The extended period of the forecast will have alternating wet and
dry periods. The period Sunday night through Monday night will
feature scattered showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary
moves across the area. The best chance for rain should be Monday
afternoon and evening while the front is moving through. Showers and
storms will then taper off Monday night, and should be out of the
area by 12 or 13Z on Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure is then
forecast to settle over the region during the middle of the week,
bring dry and pleasant weather to eastern Kentucky from Tuesday
through Thursday. The models diverge a bit with the type of weather
will be having from Thursday night onward, so that portion of the
forecast should be taken with a grain of salt for now. The ECMWF
tries to bring some precipitation back into our area on Wednesday,
but the GFS is keeping us dry. Decided to go dry for Wednesday per
the surrounding offices. The forecast becomes quite uncertain for
the period Thursday night through Friday night. The models are not
really producing much QPF across our area, but both models are
bringing a large scale upper trough across the Ohio and Tennessee
valley regions during this time. If enough moisture is available as
the trough moves past, a few showers and storms may fire as it moves
through. Therefore, a slight chance of rain was included in the
forecast to end to upcoming work week.

Temperatures during the week will be warm, but not as hot as what we
saw last week on several days. Daily highs will average in the low
to mid 80s each day except for Wednesday. On Wednesday we should see
slightly cooler conditions as the passage of the cold front on
Tuesday will usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.
Highs on Wednesday may only make it into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
Overnight lows will vary from the mid to upper 50s to the low to mid
60s most nights. The one exception will be Sunday night, when may
see the mercury only fall to around 70 across the area, as Sunday
looks to be a very warm day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

LIFR or worse fog will burn off by around 13z this morning. VFR
conditions will then take hold, with a few cumulus developing
during the day at 5-6k feet agl. Fog will likely form again
tonight between 06 and 13z; however, this will be more restricted
to the deeper river valleys. Winds will remain light through the
period as well.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251043
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Well...Short term concerns are fog this morning and storms chances
late Sunday.

Surface high pressure over CLE will usher in slightly drier airmass
today. UPS crossover method for fog shows the best potential will be
over the Bluegrass Region and far southern KY.  The positives for
the fog are clear skies...moist llvls...light winds and the main
inhibitor is the Friday strong mixing out. The high resolution
models show the LTE 1 mile vsby is over the LEX area. Will be
watching web cams...obs and enhanced fog loops.

For now, not planning on headline, but likely will reissue the SPS
at press time.

For the rest of today...a dry day with zeniths today in the upper
80s to the lower 90s. The MOS numbers seem a tad high due to
moist ground from this past weeks rains.

The high resolution models are initiating scattered convection in
the late afternoon across our southwestern KY (I-24), but will keep
area dry but will have 14 pops in Logan to Ohio Counties.

Lows Saturday night will cool into the upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Sunday...

Mid-level ridge from Show State to Land of 10K Lakes will break down
as 560m low over Big Sky Country.  This will drive a cold front
towards the Ohio valley. The new 00z models show the ridge holding
long enough to delay majority of precip til at least 18z.  Plan to
do a bunch of tweaking to the POPs and weather grids and hit most
of the precip til Sunday evening.

Highs Sunday and Monday look to warm into the upper 80s to the lower
90s with overnight lows in the lower 70s. With dew points climbing
into the lower 70s...heat indices will climb to around 100,,,with
low 100s across southern KY.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

...Round of Strong Storms Possible Sunday Night into Monday...
...Much Cooler and drier Weather Expected for Mid to Late Week...

Well...by Sunday evening...classic summer time set up with 2 inch
PWATs...MUCAPEs around 3K J/kg and weak wind field. Deterministic
Models diverge with some taking most of the energy to the N with the
stronger mid level winds and gap KY but others develops scattered
convection from 22-09z.

Should be a few strong to severe storms with wind and extremely
heavy rain the threats. The current SPC outlook looks very
reasonable especially considering DCAPE of 1000j/kg. Wind fields are
extremely light in the entire column and combined with sultry
airmass, localized flooding is possible.

Looks like chc-sct pops Sunday evening especially across the nrn
CWA.

Monday the front slowly sags and will add another day of storms
especially for the srn and ern 1/2 of the CWA.  Highs Monday look
to warm into the upper 80s with abundant cloud cover.  overnight
lows in the lower 70s.

Tue-Thu...

After the front goes through the region, we`ll see cooler and much
drier weather return to the region. The 1000-500mb thickness drop
precipitously as amplifying ridge across the silver state out
dominates out west. Dew points will be dropping into the 50s (yes
you read that right, the 50s) with afternoon highs 7 to 12 degrees
below normal. Soundings would yield around 80 on Wednesday...
Possibly 75 to 80 across northeastern areas. The upper trough will
keep us cooler and drier through Thursday with a big Hudson Bay low
the dominating feature for the east coast with torrid air across the
desert southwest. Low temperatures will bottom out in the valley and
better drainage areas such as Frankfort and Cynthiana. Lows will be
in the 50s.

Fri-weekend (from previous forecaster)

The forecast becomes more challenging as we head into the later part
of the week.  The overall flow pattern will be one with a ridge out
west and a baggy trough axis in the east.  This will place the Ohio
Valley in a notorious northwest flow.  During this time, we`ll have
to watch for perturbations moving along the periphery of the ridge
and then riding down into the Ohio Valley.  While there has been a
constant signal from the Euro of one these arriving around Thursday,
the models really struggle with these type flow regimes.
Nonetheless, we will keep chance PoPs in the forecast at this time.
Temperatures will remain below normal for late June and early July
with highs mainly in the lower 80s with overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light
patchy fog may be possible for BWG and LEX, but will quickly burn
off in the next hour or two.

For today, winds are light out of the ENE. Scattered diurnal CU at
FL040-060 are expected this afternoon. For tonight, expect clear
conditions with light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JDG/JD
Long Term.........JDG/JD
Aviation..........KJD/JD




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