000
FXUS63 KJKL 191407
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL KY PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KY
LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOCAL UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM ON THE
SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODELS HAVE A HANDLE ON THIS SPEED MAX AND
IT LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST BY 18Z AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO NORTHEAST.
THOUGH THE SPEED MAX IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...ITS SHIFT TO THE EAST
COMBINED WITH DESTABILIZATION DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP THE 30 PERCENT RAIN PROBABILITIES IN THE FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE
INCREASED PROBABILITIES ELSEWHERE TO 40 TO 50 PERCENT. THE 06Z METMOS
AND MAVMOS ACTUALLY HAVE HIGHER PROBABILITIES...BUT FOR NOW THOUGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT IS
EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE ALLEN COUNTY KY MESONET HAS ALREADY
REPORTED 1.44 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING WITH RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1
INCH PER HOUR. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. HAVE
UPDATED NDFD AND ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY STAYING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DAMPEN WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATELY...SO WILL
DOWNPLAY THE GIVEN POPS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLEARING LIKELY AND
CONSEQUENTLY FOG. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT BEST GIVEN THE CAPPING THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AT THAT POINT...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT POINT...THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO LINE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OPEN UP
THROUGH THU INTO FRI WHEN IT SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE RIDGING SHOULD BRING CAPPING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD ON AVERAGE NOT BE MORE THAN ISOLATED MON EVENING. RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING ON MON NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM
AND THESE COULD BECOME DENSE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
ON TUE NEAR THE VA LINE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CU. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE AT MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGING DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE LAKES SHOULD
ALSO APPROACH.

ALTHOUGH THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED SLOWER WORKING THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST RESPECTIVELY AND TRACK
THE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WERE CONTINUED INTO WELL INTO FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS WAS IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRIER END TO
THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
PASSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DEPARTED TO THE EAST ENOUGH FOR SAT TO BE DRY.

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
MIDWEEK ON. HOWEVER...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ON AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD YIELD ABOUT AS WARM OF A HEAT INDEX AS HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SPRING. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST OF THESE
SHOULD CLIMB TO NO HIGHER THAN 90. RECORD HIGHS AT JKL AND LOZ WILL
LIKELY END UP APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDED. RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE
AT JKL AND LOZ ARE 85/1987 AND 88/1962 RESPECTIVELY. THE MAV MOS
NUMBERS APPEARED MUCH TOO WARM AND NUMBERS CLOSER TO THE MET/CONSALL
WERE MORE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LIFR TO IFR FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING TO GO WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE CONVECTION DWINDLES THIS EVENING...IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 191102 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
702 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY STAYING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DAMPEN WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATELY...SO WILL
DOWNPLAY THE GIVEN POPS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLEARING LIKELY AND
CONSEQUENTLY FOG. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT BEST GIVEN THE CAPPING THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AT THAT POINT...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT POINT...THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO LINE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OPEN UP
THROUGH THU INTO FRI WHEN IT SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE RIDGING SHOULD BRING CAPPING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD ON AVERAGE NOT BE MORE THAN ISOLATED MON EVENING. RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING ON MON NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM
AND THESE COULD BECOME DENSE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
ON TUE NEAR THE VA LINE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CU. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE AT MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGING DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE LAKES SHOULD
ALSO APPROACH.

ALTHOUGH THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED SLOWER WORKING THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST RESPECTIVELY AND TRACK
THE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WERE CONTINUED INTO WELL INTO FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS WAS IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRIER END TO
THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
PASSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DEPARTED TO THE EAST ENOUGH FOR SAT TO BE DRY.

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
MIDWEEK ON. HOWEVER...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ON AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD YIELD ABOUT AS WARM OF A HEAT INDEX AS HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SPRING. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST OF THESE
SHOULD CLIMB TO NO HIGHER THAN 90. RECORD HIGHS AT JKL AND LOZ WILL
LIKELY END UP APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDED. RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE
AT JKL AND LOZ ARE 85/1987 AND 88/1962 RESPECTIVELY. THE MAV MOS
NUMBERS APPEARED MUCH TOO WARM AND NUMBERS CLOSER TO THE MET/CONSALL
WERE MORE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

LIFR TO IFR FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING TO GO WITH A PREVAILING GROUP AT
THIS TIME. ONCE THE CONVECTION DWINDLES THIS EVENING...IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAWN MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 191041
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 556 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

A broken line of thunderstorms has blossomed over central Tennessee
this morning, however the bulk of the precipitation should remain
south of the state border. Do have mention of an isolated
thunderstorm possible along the southern tier or two of counties
this morning. Otherwise, the only other concern is with transient
patches of dense fog. Scattered mid low/mid level clouds are
limiting more widespread fog formation, however local obs and
webcams are showing enough patches to warrant a Special Weather
Statement. Visibilities may be reduced over short distances,
especially near bodies of water, sheltered valleys, and spots that
received recent rainfall. Conditions should improve by 9 AM EDT/8 AM
CDT.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

The upper level low that has helped plague the area with scattered
showers and a few storms over the weekend is now located over SE
Kentucky. Meanwhile, a weak warm frontal boundary is situated from
central MO to central TN. This brings the boundary across western
Kentucky where some scattered to broken mid level clouds reside.
There are also some very light returns that are resulting in
sprinkles at best near the surface. Models have been depicting light
QPF with this boundary for several days, however think that even the
light QPF is overdone and may go with just some scattered sprinkles
through the morning hours across the southwest CWA, into the central
CWA. Otherwise, expect a dry morning. Will have to continue to
monitor fog development, with some locally dense spots possible. A
few obs have gone down to a half mile at times already. Do think
that the scattered to broken upper level clouds will hurt fog
potential some as we near dawn, so will only mention in the HWO
unless conditions warrant a more significant product.

The upper low is forecast to wobble over eastern Kentucky today
while an upper level ridge axis builds over central and western
portions of the state. A nice subsidence inversion looks to
accompany this ridge as evidenced on forecast soundings across the
western two thirds of the CWA by afternoon. Therefore, will only
keep iso-scattered (30%) pops in the eastern CWA this afternoon
where ridge does not build in until tonight. Will go dry across
western portions of the state as any potential precipitation with
the warm front should be shunted by the inversion. Will see partly
to mostly cloudy skies by afternoon as diurnally driven cu develop,
however will see a warm up. Look for low to mid 80s west and around
80 east.

Any lingering showers or storms will die off with the loss of
heating this evening. Upper ridge will hold over the area keeping
things dry. A light southerly flow will encompass the area which
should keep temps mild so only expecting lows in the mid and upper
60s. Also think the noticeable gradient winds will keep fog
formation potential in check.

Upper ridge axis will hold through the day on Monday as well,
continuing to keep the CWA dry. Will see a continued increase in
temperatures as H85 temps in jump up around 18 C with only partly
cloudy skies and steady SSW wind. Will go nearer the slightly cooler
NAM guidance in the mid and upper 80s. MAV guidance is going with
upper 80s and low 90s in many spots, but with the amount of
greenery, recent rainfall, and at least scattered cu, hard to
imagine we will get that warm. Just an interesting note, a high in
the low 90s at SDF on Monday would put the record of 91 (1934) in
jeopardy. Right now the forecast calls for 89. Stay tuned.

.Long Term (Monday night - Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

A stacked upper low over the mid-Missouri valley at the start of the
long term will slowly drift to the east to the Great Lakes by
Thursday morning and then get absorbed into a deep upper trof
sweeping through southeast Canada.  Correspondingly at the surface,
low pressure will advance from South Dakota to Michigan, pulling its
cold front through the Ohio Valley sometime Thursday or Thursday
evening.  Meanwhile, a large dome of high pressure over the Atlantic
will pump Gulf of Mexico warmth and moisture northward ahead of the
approaching storm system.  The result will be unseasonably
warm, muggy conditions with shower and thunderstorm chances.

Although the best chances for severe storms on Tuesday will remain
to our west, we could still see some strong pulsers here in the
afternoon or evening.  A few strong storms will again be possible on
Wednesday as the Plains system approaches.  Total totals and SWEAT
numbers are actually higher on Tuesday, likely due in part to
steeper mid level lapse rates.  Progged surface instability is also
stronger on Tuesday.  However on Wednesday there will be better
upper level divergence along with a 5H speed max and stronger 850hPa
winds as well.  Wednesday also should have higher 1000-850 RH, which
could serve as moisture to fuel storms but may also cause greater
cloud cover and, as a result, decreased insolation and less surface
based instability.

Canadian high pressure will invade from the north Friday/Saturday,
bringing much drier and cooler air to the region.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term with afternoon
readings peaking in the middle and upper 80s.  Greater RH and shower
coverage on Wednesday should limit high temperatures to around 80.
Thursday through Saturday we`ll enjoy highs in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 640 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

Main concern this morning is with patches of dense fog. LEX will be
the terminal most impacted over next couple of hours as conditions
have dropped below minimums. Do expect improvement by around 9 AM
EDT. Enough mid level clouds have have developed around the BWG area
to improve conditions there. SDF should stay in the MVFR range,
although could briefly drop to IFR over the next hour or so.

Otherwise, a weak upper low will meander around east Kentucky today,
with a weak frontal boundary across the Tennessee Valley. These two
disturbances will provide focus for isolated to scattered showers
and storms today. At this point, confidence is only high enough in
scattered coverage around LEX to warrant mention. VFR conditions will
prevail from mid morning on with a steady SSW wind between 5 and 10
mph this afternoon. Fog may become a concern again tonight, although
surface winds are expected to stay up a bit and could limit fog
production.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BJS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 190957
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
557 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 556 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

A broken line of thunderstorms has blossomed over central Tennessee
this morning, however the bulk of the precipitation should remain
south of the state border. Do have mention of an isolated
thunderstorm possible along the southern tier or two of counties
this morning. Otherwise, the only other concern is with transient
patches of dense fog. Scattered mid low/mid level clouds are
limiting more widespread fog formation, however local obs and
webcams are showing enough patches to warrant a Special Weather
Statement. Visibilities may be reduced over short distances,
especially near bodies of water, sheltered valleys, and spots that
received recent rainfall. Conditions should improve by 9 AM EDT/8 AM
CDT.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

The upper level low that has helped plague the area with scattered
showers and a few storms over the weekend is now located over SE
Kentucky. Meanwhile, a weak warm frontal boundary is situated from
central MO to central TN. This brings the boundary across western
Kentucky where some scattered to broken mid level clouds reside.
There are also some very light returns that are resulting in
sprinkles at best near the surface. Models have been depicting light
QPF with this boundary for several days, however think that even the
light QPF is overdone and may go with just some scattered sprinkles
through the morning hours across the southwest CWA, into the central
CWA. Otherwise, expect a dry morning. Will have to continue to
monitor fog development, with some locally dense spots possible. A
few obs have gone down to a half mile at times already. Do think
that the scattered to broken upper level clouds will hurt fog
potential some as we near dawn, so will only mention in the HWO
unless conditions warrant a more significant product.

The upper low is forecast to wobble over eastern Kentucky today
while an upper level ridge axis builds over central and western
portions of the state. A nice subsidence inversion looks to
accompany this ridge as evidenced on forecast soundings across the
western two thirds of the CWA by afternoon. Therefore, will only
keep iso-scattered (30%) pops in the eastern CWA this afternoon
where ridge does not build in until tonight. Will go dry across
western portions of the state as any potential precipitation with
the warm front should be shunted by the inversion. Will see partly
to mostly cloudy skies by afternoon as diurnally driven cu develop,
however will see a warm up. Look for low to mid 80s west and around
80 east.

Any lingering showers or storms will die off with the loss of
heating this evening. Upper ridge will hold over the area keeping
things dry. A light southerly flow will encompass the area which
should keep temps mild so only expecting lows in the mid and upper
60s. Also think the noticeable gradient winds will keep fog
formation potential in check.

Upper ridge axis will hold through the day on Monday as well,
continuing to keep the CWA dry. Will see a continued increase in
temperatures as H85 temps in jump up around 18 C with only partly
cloudy skies and steady SSW wind. Will go nearer the slightly cooler
NAM guidance in the mid and upper 80s. MAV guidance is going with
upper 80s and low 90s in many spots, but with the amount of
greenery, recent rainfall, and at least scattered cu, hard to
imagine we will get that warm. Just an interesting note, a high in
the low 90s at SDF on Monday would put the record of 91 (1934) in
jeopardy. Right now the forecast calls for 89. Stay tuned.

.Long Term (Monday night - Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

A stacked upper low over the mid-Missouri valley at the start of the
long term will slowly drift to the east to the Great Lakes by
Thursday morning and then get absorbed into a deep upper trof
sweeping through southeast Canada.  Correspondingly at the surface,
low pressure will advance from South Dakota to Michigan, pulling its
cold front through the Ohio Valley sometime Thursday or Thursday
evening.  Meanwhile, a large dome of high pressure over the Atlantic
will pump Gulf of Mexico warmth and moisture northward ahead of the
approaching storm system.  The result will be unseasonably
warm, muggy conditions with shower and thunderstorm chances.

Although the best chances for severe storms on Tuesday will remain
to our west, we could still see some strong pulsers here in the
afternoon or evening.  A few strong storms will again be possible on
Wednesday as the Plains system approaches.  Total totals and SWEAT
numbers are actually higher on Tuesday, likely due in part to
steeper mid level lapse rates.  Progged surface instability is also
stronger on Tuesday.  However on Wednesday there will be better
upper level divergence along with a 5H speed max and stronger 850hPa
winds as well.  Wednesday also should have higher 1000-850 RH, which
could serve as moisture to fuel storms but may also cause greater
cloud cover and, as a result, decreased insolation and less surface
based instability.

Canadian high pressure will invade from the north Friday/Saturday,
bringing much drier and cooler air to the region.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term with afternoon
readings peaking in the middle and upper 80s.  Greater RH and shower
coverage on Wednesday should limit high temperatures to around 80.
Thursday through Saturday we`ll enjoy highs in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

The upper low that has plagued the area with scattered showers is
now over SE Kentucky. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis is
centered over the Mississippi Valley and will progress eastward
toward the the TAF sites through the period. Will watch a weak
boundary stretched across the Tennessee Valley work northeastward
overnight, however only expect scattered to broken clouds around 3-5
K feet with the feature, and perhaps a few very light rain showers
near BWG. Impacts would be negligible. Of more concern, will be the
potential for fog under mostly clear skies and calm winds early on.
Will stick with a fairly low confidence forecast of MVFR
visibilities through dawn at BWG/LEX, before improvement. At this
point, thinking convection will be minimized at the TAF sites later
this afternoon as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead and mid
level cap keeps storms at bay. Will not mention any precipitation at
this point. Otherwise, expect scattered to broken VFR clouds with a
more noticeable SSW wind around 10 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........BJS
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 190824
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
324 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A WARM FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FA MAY HELP FOCUS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INTO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THIS
PM/EVENING...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE LIKE THE GOING 20S COVERING THIS AND
WILL RETAIN THAT WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT.

AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO PRETTY
MUCH SUPPRESS CONVECTION THRU MONDAY. THE TRENDING OF ALL THE
MODELS IS TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT...SO WE
MADE THE NECESSARY TIMING CHANGES FOR THAT...RESULTING IN A SMALL
INTRO POP MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTH/WEST. POPS THEN SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD THE ENSUING 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...PEAKING
TUESDAY NIGHT (INTO WED) IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. NEW SWODYS1-3 IS
IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING/TIMING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE TREND TO A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING SCHEME WHICH BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR
THE NW BORDER OF THE FA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
500MB SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTION ON THIS FEATURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/COLD FRONT IMPACT SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SE
HALF OF THE FA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL WED. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

THE FRONT STILL APPEARS SLATED TO STALL OUT/WASH OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS...MAINLY OVER THE S/SE PART OF THE FA.

GEM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

PATCHY FOG SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT EAST (KEVV/KOWB) WITH
TEMPORARY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING.
INCOMING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN LOW VFR
CIGS FOR ALL...WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD BE ALONG/EAST OF THE INCOMING
RIDGE...BUT MINIMAL ENOUGH TO REFRAIN FROM MENTION. SLYS SHOULD
PICK UP AND START TO GUST SOME TODAY DURING THE DIURNAL MIXING
HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190817
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
417 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY STAYING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DAMPEN WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATELY...SO WILL
DOWNPLAY THE GIVEN POPS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLEARING LIKELY AND
CONSEQUENTLY FOG. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT BEST GIVEN THE CAPPING THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT
IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTH INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY. AT THAT POINT...A LARGE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT POINT...THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO LINE FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS MEANS THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL ONLY SLOWLY
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OPEN UP
THROUGH THU INTO FRI WHEN IT SHOULD GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST OR MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FROM THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LEADS TO TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
PASSAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEPARTS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE RIDGING SHOULD BRING CAPPING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD ON AVERAGE NOT BE MORE THAN ISOLATED MON EVENING. RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING ON MON NIGHT AND AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM
AND THESE COULD BECOME DENSE DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLEARING.
DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED
ON TUE NEAR THE VA LINE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD EXPERIENCE NOT
MUCH MORE THAN A DIURNAL INCREASE IN CU. THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
WILL INCREASE AT MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGING DEPARTS TO THE EAST AND
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WORK INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...THE SFC COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE LAKES SHOULD
ALSO APPROACH.

ALTHOUGH THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THE GFS RUNS HAVE REMAINED SLOWER WORKING THE SFC
BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SOUTH AND EAST RESPECTIVELY AND TRACK
THE UPPER SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WERE CONTINUED INTO WELL INTO FRI AND FRI NIGHT AS WAS IN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD MEAN A DRIER END TO
THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY WILL HAVE
PASSED FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND EAST AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE
DEPARTED TO THE EAST ENOUGH FOR SAT TO BE DRY.

DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES SHOULD GENERALLY BE SUPPRESSED FROM
MIDWEEK ON. HOWEVER...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE...
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S ON AVERAGE AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD YIELD ABOUT AS WARM OF A HEAT INDEX AS HAS
BEEN EXPERIENCED SO FAR THIS SPRING. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST OF THESE
SHOULD CLIMB TO NO HIGHER THAN 90. RECORD HIGHS AT JKL AND LOZ WILL
LIKELY END UP APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY EXCEEDED. RECORD HIGHS FOR TUE
AT JKL AND LOZ ARE 85/1987 AND 88/1962 RESPECTIVELY. THE MAV MOS
NUMBERS APPEARED MUCH TOO WARM AND NUMBERS CLOSER TO THE MET/CONSALL
WERE MORE APPROPRIATE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOG WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN...AS SKIES ATTEMPT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. SME HAS ALREADY GONE DOWN TO 2 MILES. THE
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL SOME CLOUDS REGENERATING UPSTREAM.
AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SME IN THE IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR
ASSUMING THE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT LOZ AND KEEP VFR AT JKL WHERE WINDS WILL
BE A TOUCH STRONGER. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY MID-
MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDING DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 190658
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.Short Term (Now - Monday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

The upper level low that has helped plague the area with scattered
showers and a few storms over the weekend is now located over SE
Kentucky. Meanwhile, a weak warm frontal boundary is situated from
central MO to central TN. This brings the boundary across western
Kentucky where some scattered to broken mid level clouds reside.
There are also some very light returns that are resulting in
sprinkles at best near the surface. Models have been depicting light
QPF with this boundary for several days, however think that even the
light QPF is overdone and may go with just some scattered sprinkles
through the morning hours across the southwest CWA, into the central
CWA. Otherwise, expect a dry morning. Will have to continue to
monitor fog development, with some locally dense spots possible. A
few obs have gone down to a half mile at times already. Do think
that the scattered to broken upper level clouds will hurt fog
potential some as we near dawn, so will only mention in the HWO
unless conditions warrant a more significant product.

The upper low is forecast to wobble over eastern Kentucky today
while an upper level ridge axis builds over central and western
portions of the state. A nice subsidence inversion looks to accompany
this ridge as evidenced on forecast soundings across the western two
thirds of the CWA by afternoon. Therefore, will only keep
iso-scattered (30%) pops in the eastern CWA this afternoon where
ridge does not build in until tonight. Will go dry across western
portions of the state as any potential precipitation with the warm
front should be shunted by the inversion. Will see partly to mostly
cloudy skies by afternoon as diurnally driven cu develop, however
will see a warm up. Look for low to mid 80s west and around 80
east.

Any lingering showers or storms will die off with the loss of
heating this evening. Upper ridge will hold over the area keeping
things dry. A light southerly flow will encompass the area which
should keep temps mild so only expecting lows in the mid and upper
60s. Also think the noticeable gradient winds will keep fog
formation potential in check.

Upper ridge axis will hold through the day on Monday as well,
continuing to keep the CWA dry. Will see a continued increase in
temperatures as H85 temps in jump up around 18 C with only partly
cloudy skies and steady SSW wind. Will go nearer the slightly cooler
Nam guidance in the mid and upper 80s. Mav guidance is going with
upper 80s and low 90s in many spots, but with the amount of
greenery, recent rainfall, and at least scattered cu, hard to
imagine we will get that warm. Just an interesting note, a high in
the low 90s at SDF on Monday would put the record of 91 (1934) in
jeopardy. Right now the forecast calls for 89. Stay tuned.

.Long Term (Monday night - Saturday)...
Issued at 257 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

A stacked upper low over the mid-Missouri valley at the start of the
long term will slowly drift to the east to the Great Lakes by
Thursday morning and then get absorbed into a deep upper trof
sweeping through southeast Canada.  Correspondingly at the surface,
low pressure will advance from South Dakota to Michigan, pulling its
cold front through the Ohio Valley sometime Thursday or Thursday
evening.  Meanwhile, a large dome of high pressure over the Atlantic
will pump Gulf of Mexico warmth and moisture northward ahead of the
approaching storm system.  The result will be unseasonably
warm, muggy conditions with shower and thunderstorm chances.

Although the best chances for severe storms on Tuesday will remain
to our west, we could still see some strong pulsers here in the
afternoon or evening.  A few strong storms will again be possible on
Wednesday as the Plains system approaches.  Total totals and SWEAT
numbers are actually higher on Tuesday, likely due in part to
steeper mid level lapse rates.  Progged surface instability is also
stronger on Tuesday.  However on Wednesday there will be better
upper level divergence along with a 5H speed max and stronger 850hPa
winds as well.  Wednesday also should have higher 1000-850 RH, which
could serve as moisture to fuel storms but may also cause greater
cloud cover and, as a result, decreased insolation and less surface
based instability.

Canadian high pressure will invade from the north Friday/Saturday,
bringing much drier and cooler air to the region.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the long term with afternoon
readings peaking in the middle and upper 80s.  Greater RH and shower
coverage on Wednesday should limit high temperatures to around 80.
Thursday through Saturday we`ll enjoy highs in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

The upper low that has plagued the area with scattered showers is
now over SE Kentucky. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis is
centered over the Mississippi Valley and will progress eastward
toward the the TAF sites through the period. Will watch a weak
boundary stretched across the Tennessee Valley work northeastward
overnight, however only expect scattered to broken clouds around 3-5
K feet with the feature, and perhaps a few very light rain showers
near BWG. Impacts would be negligible. Of more concern, will be the
potential for fog under mostly clear skies and calm winds early on.
Will stick with a fairly low confidence forecast of MVFR
visibilities through dawn at BWG/LEX, before improvement. At this
point, thinking convection will be minimized at the TAF sites later
this afternoon as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead and mid
level cap keeps storms at bay. Will not mention any precipitation at
this point. Otherwise, expect scattered to broken VFR clouds with a
more noticeable SSW wind around 10 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190646 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY PARKED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY STAYING ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE
AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
DAMPEN WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATELY...SO WILL
DOWNPLAY THE GIVEN POPS THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO POP UP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DWINDLE QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH BETTER CLEARING LIKELY AND
CONSEQUENTLY FOG. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVERHEAD ON MONDAY...WITH HIGHS
REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S. WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT BEST GIVEN THE CAPPING THAT WILL BE
IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY A VERY SLOW TRANSITION. OUR
REGION WILL BE IN A WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR WEST AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WILL BE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DAILY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A RATHER SUPPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS...DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH EASTERN KY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL REGION BLENDED LOAD FOR NDFD
DEPICTS THIS WELL...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PRODUCING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE HANDLED BY THE MODELS...A SLOW PROGRESSION IS
PREFERRED...WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOG WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN...AS SKIES ATTEMPT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. SME HAS ALREADY GONE DOWN TO 2 MILES. THE
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL SOME CLOUDS REGENERATING UPSTREAM.
AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SME IN THE IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR
ASSUMING THE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT LOZ AND KEEP VFR AT JKL WHERE WINDS WILL
BE A TOUCH STRONGER. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY MID-
MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDING DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190556 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

BEEFED UP THE FOG ALONG AND WEST OF I-75...WHERE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED
AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS ARE RESPONDING...OTHERWISE JUST FRESHENED UP
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE AREA
BUT COVERAGE IS ON THE DECREASE NOW AS THE SUN SETS. IT ALSO APPEARS
ANY THREAT OF THUNDER IS OVER. SO...PUSHED ALONG AN UPDATE TO REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO...BEEFED UP THE WORDING ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GOOD
BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS. PATCHY BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS A
GOOD BET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE SHORT TERM IS A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE.
THE GFS SHOWS THIS AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM CLOSED LONGER AND ONLY OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN VA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A TROF THAT DROPS OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS NEB BY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL WAVES WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDER BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MOST THOUGHTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. PCPN WILL BE PERIODIC UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING WHEN WE APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OPEN WAVE AND THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN A DEG OR SO OF THE 80 DEG MARK WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY A VERY SLOW TRANSITION. OUR
REGION WILL BE IN A WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR WEST AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WILL BE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DAILY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A RATHER SUPPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS...DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH EASTERN KY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL REGION BLENDED LOAD FOR NDFD
DEPICTS THIS WELL...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PRODUCING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE HANDLED BY THE MODELS...A SLOW PROGRESSION IS
PREFERRED...WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

FOG WILL BE THE FIRST CONCERN...AS SKIES ATTEMPT TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
ALONG AND WEST OF I-75. SME HAS ALREADY GONE DOWN TO 2 MILES. THE
LATEST IR SATELLITE TRENDS REVEAL SOME CLOUDS REGENERATING UPSTREAM.
AS SUCH...WILL KEEP SME IN THE IFR RANGE BEFORE IMPROVING TO MVFR
ASSUMING THE CLOUDS MAKE A RETURN. WILL MAINTAIN SOME MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT LOZ AND JKL. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY
MID-MORNING...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE WINDING DOWN IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 190457
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Bumped up fog coverage in the grids, as airmass is pretty humid this
hour. Once sky cover breaks up we should quickly turn over to this
fog, with perhaps some low stratus as well. Winds are light out
there as the surface pressure gradients over the region is fairly
light now. Showers now are pretty isolated, so have lowered coverage
for the rest of the night.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An area of low pressure continues to spin across the forecast area
this afternoon. Early morning light showers/drizzle gave way to a
few hours of dry conditions. However, now, with diurnal heating,
scattered showers have developed. Not seeing any lightning, but an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out given the steep lapse
rates aloft. Think the morning cloud cover helped keep instability
down a bit. The heavier rain producing showers should reside across
southeast Indiana and into the Kentucky Blue Grass, with isolated to
scattered showers elsewhere. Temperatures have reached the low to
mid 70s, with some warming still possible for several locations.

The coverage of showers and any storm that may develop will slowly
diminish this evening and tonight, as the upper low moves east. With
the departing low, an upper-level ridge axis will begin to build
across western Kentucky tonight. High resolution models continue to
indicate we will go briefly dry by around midnight through dawn.
Skies should become at least partly cloudy overnight, which will
allow temperatures to drop into the low and mid 60s and perhaps some
patchy fog or low stratus to form. Depending on the amount clearing,
some locally dense fog could develop, especially for locations that
receive rainfall today.

The upper low will move to the central Appalachians Sunday, with the
upper-level ridge axis continuing to build eastward. Expect diurnal
scattered convection across our eastern CWA, associated with the
upper low. Should also see some scattered convection across our
south and southwest with a weak warm front edging into the forecast
area. Heavy rain and of course lightning will be the main threats
with any convection that develops. High temperatures Sunday should
reach the upper 70s across the eastern CWA and low to mid 80s across
the west. Temperatures will drop back into the low and mid 60s under
partly cloudy skies. Once again, could see some patchy fog develop
around dawn Monday.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

The latest multi-model solutions continue to be in fairly good
agreement with a large upper level trough remaining nearly
stationary out over the Plains through the first part of the
forecast period.  With the upper trough to our west, the Ohio Valley
will see a relatively deep southwesterly flow aloft which will also
good moisture advection and continued warm temperatures through the
first half of the week.

Increasing humidity levels will be evident by Monday afternoon as
the southwesterly flow kicks into high gear.  Despite having good
moisture pooling across the region, latest model proximity soundings
do show expanding mid-level height rises across the region.  The
height rises along with a fairly evident capping inversion will
likely keep convection at a relative minimum Monday afternoon.
Highs Monday should top out in the 85-90 degree range.  With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, it will feel like the lower
90s across the region.  Lows Monday night look to cool into the
upper 60s to around 70.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis looks to shift a bit more to the
east.  Correspondingly, mid-level heights lower through the day and
the capping inversion is not as strong as what is indicated for
Monday.  As temperatures warm again into he 85-90 degree range,
we`re likely to see isolated to scattered convection develop during
the afternoon.  Latest data does not have a well defined lifting
mechanism that stands out...other than differential heating and
convective overturning.  Therefore, still am inclined to run low
chance PoPs equally across the forecast area.  Given the elevated
instability on Tuesday, a few of the storms that pop up could be on
the strong side.  The combination of high instability and weak shear
are suggestive of pulse type convection with damaging winds and hail
being a threat.

By midweek, the model solutions suggest that the upper trough axis
will slowly transition eastward from the Plains into the Great Lakes
region.  Corresponding occluding surface cyclone will move from the
Midwest into the Ohio Valley dragging a frontal boundary across the
region.  As this boundary pushes eastward, it will encounter ample
instability and moisture to produce a large area of thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Strong to severe storms will be possible as this front moves
through.  Complex and unresolvable mesoscale interactions at this
time scale preclude defining a particular hazardous weather threat
at this time.  We feel those feature will come into clearer view
over the next few days.

The upper trough will slowly head eastward through the southern
Great Lakes on Thursday with a secondary frontal cruising through on
Thursday bringing yet another round of convection to the region.
Upper trough then looks to push on off to the east on Friday with
mid-level height rises taking place and surface high pressure
building back into the region. This should result in dry conditions
from Friday into Saturday.

Highs Wed/Thu will be cooler due to clouds and precipitation and
readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected with
overnight lows in the 60s.  Cooler temperatures look increasingly
likely on Friday/Saturday with highs in the lower 70s and overnight
lows cooling into the lower 50s.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sun May 19 2013

The upper low that has plagued the area with scattered showers is
now over SE Kentucky. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis is
centered over the Mississippi Valley and will progress eastward
toward the the TAF sites through the period. Will watch a weak
boundary stretched across the Tennessee Valley work northeastward
overnight, however only expect scattered to broken clouds around 3-5
K feet with the feature, and perhaps a few very light rain showers
near BWG. Impacts would be negligible. Of more concern, will be the
potential for fog under mostly clear skies and calm winds early on.
Will stick with a fairly low confidence forecast of MVFR
visibilities through dawn at BWG/LEX, before improvement. At this
point, thinking convection will be minimized at the TAF sites later
this afternoon as the upper level ridge axis moves overhead and mid
level cap keeps storms at bay. Will not mention any precipitation at
this point. Otherwise, expect scattered to broken VFR clouds with a
more noticeable SSW wind around 10 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KLMK 190140
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
940 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Bumped up fog coverage in the grids, as airmass is pretty humid this
hour. Once sky cover breaks up we should quickly turn over to this
fog, with perhaps some low stratus as well. Winds are light out
there as the surface pressure gradients over the region is fairly
light now. Showers now are pretty isolated, so have lowered coverage
for the rest of the night.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An area of low pressure continues to spin across the forecast area
this afternoon. Early morning light showers/drizzle gave way to a
few hours of dry conditions. However, now, with diurnal heating,
scattered showers have developed. Not seeing any lightning, but an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out given the steep lapse
rates aloft. Think the morning cloud cover helped keep instability
down a bit. The heavier rain producing showers should reside across
southeast Indiana and into the Kentucky Blue Grass, with isolated to
scattered showers elsewhere. Temperatures have reached the low to
mid 70s, with some warming still possible for several locations.

The coverage of showers and any storm that may develop will slowly
diminish this evening and tonight, as the upper low moves east. With
the departing low, an upper-level ridge axis will begin to build
across western Kentucky tonight. High resolution models continue to
indicate we will go briefly dry by around midnight through dawn.
Skies should become at least partly cloudy overnight, which will
allow temperatures to drop into the low and mid 60s and perhaps some
patchy fog or low stratus to form. Depending on the amount clearing,
some locally dense fog could develop, especially for locations that
receive rainfall today.

The upper low will move to the central Appalachians Sunday, with the
upper-level ridge axis continuing to build eastward. Expect diurnal
scattered convection across our eastern CWA, associated with the
upper low. Should also see some scattered convection across our
south and southwest with a weak warm front edging into the forecast
area. Heavy rain and of course lightning will be the main threats
with any convection that develops. High temperatures Sunday should
reach the upper 70s across the eastern CWA and low to mid 80s across
the west. Temperatures will drop back into the low and mid 60s under
partly cloudy skies. Once again, could see some patchy fog develop
around dawn Monday.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

The latest multi-model solutions continue to be in fairly good
agreement with a large upper level trough remaining nearly
stationary out over the Plains through the first part of the
forecast period.  With the upper trough to our west, the Ohio Valley
will see a relatively deep southwesterly flow aloft which will also
good moisture advection and continued warm temperatures through the
first half of the week.

Increasing humidity levels will be evident by Monday afternoon as
the southwesterly flow kicks into high gear.  Despite having good
moisture pooling across the region, latest model proximity soundings
do show expanding mid-level height rises across the region.  The
height rises along with a fairly evident capping inversion will
likely keep convection at a relative minimum Monday afternoon.
Highs Monday should top out in the 85-90 degree range.  With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, it will feel like the lower
90s across the region.  Lows Monday night look to cool into the
upper 60s to around 70.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis looks to shift a bit more to the
east.  Correspondingly, mid-level heights lower through the day and
the capping inversion is not as strong as what is indicated for
Monday.  As temperatures warm again into he 85-90 degree range,
we`re likely to see isolated to scattered convection develop during
the afternoon.  Latest data does not have a well defined lifting
mechanism that stands out...other than differential heating and
convective overturning.  Therefore, still am inclined to run low
chance PoPs equally across the forecast area.  Given the elevated
instability on Tuesday, a few of the storms that pop up could be on
the strong side.  The combination of high instability and weak shear
are suggestive of pulse type convection with damaging winds and hail
being a threat.

By midweek, the model solutions suggest that the upper trough axis
will slowly transition eastward from the Plains into the Great Lakes
region.  Corresponding occluding surface cyclone will move from the
Midwest into the Ohio Valley dragging a frontal boundary across the
region.  As this boundary pushes eastward, it will encounter ample
instability and moisture to produce a large area of thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Strong to severe storms will be possible as this front moves
through.  Complex and unresolvable mesoscale interactions at this
time scale preclude defining a particular hazardous weather threat
at this time.  We feel those feature will come into clearer view
over the next few days.

The upper trough will slowly head eastward through the southern
Great Lakes on Thursday with a secondary frontal cruising through on
Thursday bringing yet another round of convection to the region.
Upper trough then looks to push on off to the east on Friday with
mid-level height rises taking place and surface high pressure
building back into the region. This should result in dry conditions
from Friday into Saturday.

Highs Wed/Thu will be cooler due to clouds and precipitation and
readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected with
overnight lows in the 60s.  Cooler temperatures look increasingly
likely on Friday/Saturday with highs in the lower 70s and overnight
lows cooling into the lower 50s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Scattered to isolated showers will diminish this evening at SDF and
LEX and end before midnight. Clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected
this evening at BWG. Partly cloudy skies late this evening will
trend towards clearing by early morning as well due to loss of
afternoon heating.

Winds overnight will stay quite light and variable with sustained
winds 5kt or less. Light fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours
at BWG and LEX with MVFR visibilities possible.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies early Sunday, becoming partly
cloudy with VFR ceilings during the afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. These possible
unorganized thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will be difficult to
time. Will put VCSH for a few hours in TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........JSD

000
FXUS63 KJKL 190046
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 846 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND THE AREA
BUT COVERAGE IS ON THE DECREASE NOW AS THE SUN SETS. IT ALSO APPEARS
ANY THREAT OF THUNDER IS OVER. SO...PUSHED ALONG AN UPDATE TO REDUCE
RAIN CHANCES INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
ALSO...BEEFED UP THE WORDING ON THE FOG OVERNIGHT WITH SOME GOOD
BREAKS DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS. PATCHY BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS A
GOOD BET LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE SHORT TERM IS A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE.
THE GFS SHOWS THIS AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM CLOSED LONGER AND ONLY OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN VA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A TROF THAT DROPS OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS NEB BY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL WAVES WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDER BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MOST THOUGHTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. PCPN WILL BE PERIODIC UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING WHEN WE APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OPEN WAVE AND THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN A DEG OR SO OF THE 80 DEG MARK WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY A VERY SLOW TRANSITION. OUR
REGION WILL BE IN A WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR WEST AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WILL BE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DAILY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A RATHER SUPPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS...DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH EASTERN KY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL REGION BLENDED LOAD FOR NDFD
DEPICTS THIS WELL...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PRODUCING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE HANDLED BY THE MODELS...A SLOW PROGRESSION IS
PREFERRED...WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG WILL
THEN BECOME AN INCREASING PROBLEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE FOG DEPENDING ON ULTIMATELY HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
RECENT TRENDS POINT TO HIGHER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SO EXPECT AT
LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. THE
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY
AS WE SAW TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...ABE

000
FXUS63 KJKL 182349
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
749 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE SHORT TERM IS A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE.
THE GFS SHOWS THIS AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM CLOSED LONGER AND ONLY OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN VA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A TROF THAT DROPS OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS NEB BY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL WAVES WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDER BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MOST THOUGHTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. PCPN WILL BE PERIODIC UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING WHEN WE APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OPEN WAVE AND THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN A DEG OR SO OF THE 80 DEG MARK WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY A VERY SLOW TRANSITION. OUR
REGION WILL BE IN A WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR WEST AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WILL BE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DAILY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A RATHER SUPPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS...DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH EASTERN KY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL REGION BLENDED LOAD FOR NDFD
DEPICTS THIS WELL...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PRODUCING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE HANDLED BY THE MODELS...A SLOW PROGRESSION IS
PREFERRED...WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. FOG WILL
THEN BECOME AN INCREASING PROBLEM OVERNIGHT...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT
OF THE FOG DEPENDING ON ULTIMATELY HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE.
RECENT TRENDS POINT TO HIGHER CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT SO EXPECT AT
LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM ALONG WITH SOME STRATUS. THE
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES LATE TONIGHT. WE SHOULD THEN SEE A SIMILAR SITUATION ON SUNDAY
AS WE SAW TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...ABE

000
FXUS63 KLMK 182330
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now - Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An area of low pressure continues to spin across the forecast area
this afternoon. Early morning light showers/drizzle gave way to a
few hours of dry conditions. However, now, with diurnal heating,
scattered showers have developed. Not seeing any lightning, but an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out given the steep lapse
rates aloft. Think the morning cloud cover helped keep instability
down a bit. The heavier rain producing showers should reside across
southeast Indiana and into the Kentucky Blue Grass, with isolated to
scattered showers elsewhere. Temperatures have reached the low to
mid 70s, with some warming still possible for several locations.

The coverage of showers and any storm that may develop will slowly
diminish this evening and tonight, as the upper low moves east. With
the departing low, an upper-level ridge axis will begin to build
across western Kentucky tonight. High resolution models continue to
indicate we will go briefly dry by around midnight through dawn.
Skies should become at least partly cloudy overnight, which will
allow temperatures to drop into the low and mid 60s and perhaps some
patchy fog or low stratus to form. Depending on the amount clearing,
some locally dense fog could develop, especially for locations that
receive rainfall today.

The upper low will move to the central Appalachians Sunday, with the
upper-level ridge axis continuing to build eastward. Expect diurnal
scattered convection across our eastern CWA, associated with the
upper low. Should also see some scattered convection across our
south and southwest with a weak warm front edging into the forecast
area. Heavy rain and of course lightning will be the main threats
with any convection that develops. High temperatures Sunday should
reach the upper 70s across the eastern CWA and low to mid 80s across
the west. Temperatures will drop back into the low and mid 60s under
partly cloudy skies. Once again, could see some patchy fog develop
around dawn Monday.


.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

The latest multi-model solutions continue to be in fairly good
agreement with a large upper level trough remaining nearly
stationary out over the Plains through the first part of the
forecast period.  With the upper trough to our west, the Ohio Valley
will see a relatively deep southwesterly flow aloft which will also
good moisture advection and continued warm temperatures through the
first half of the week.

Increasing humidity levels will be evident by Monday afternoon as
the southwesterly flow kicks into high gear.  Despite having good
moisture pooling across the region, latest model proximity soundings
do show expanding mid-level height rises across the region.  The
height rises along with a fairly evident capping inversion will
likely keep convection at a relative minimum Monday afternoon.
Highs Monday should top out in the 85-90 degree range.  With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, it will feel like the lower
90s across the region.  Lows Monday night look to cool into the
upper 60s to around 70.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis looks to shift a bit more to the
east.  Correspondingly, mid-level heights lower through the day and
the capping inversion is not as strong as what is indicated for
Monday.  As temperatures warm again into he 85-90 degree range,
we`re likely to see isolated to scattered convection develop during
the afternoon.  Latest data does not have a well defined lifting
mechanism that stands out...other than differential heating and
convective overturning.  Therefore, still am inclined to run low
chance PoPs equally across the forecast area.  Given the elevated
instability on Tuesday, a few of the storms that pop up could be on
the strong side.  The combination of high instability and weak shear
are suggestive of pulse type convection with damaging winds and hail
being a threat.

By midweek, the model solutions suggest that the upper trough axis
will slowly transition eastward from the Plains into the Great Lakes
region.  Corresponding occluding surface cyclone will move from the
Midwest into the Ohio Valley dragging a frontal boundary across the
region.  As this boundary pushes eastward, it will encounter ample
instability and moisture to produce a large area of thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Strong to severe storms will be possible as this front moves
through.  Complex and unresolvable mesoscale interactions at this
time scale preclude defining a particular hazardous weather threat
at this time.  We feel those feature will come into clearer view
over the next few days.

The upper trough will slowly head eastward through the southern
Great Lakes on Thursday with a secondary frontal cruising through on
Thursday bringing yet another round of convection to the region.
Upper trough then looks to push on off to the east on Friday with
mid-level height rises taking place and surface high pressure
building back into the region. This should result in dry conditions
from Friday into Saturday.

Highs Wed/Thu will be cooler due to clouds and precipitation and
readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected with
overnight lows in the 60s.  Cooler temperatures look increasingly
likely on Friday/Saturday with highs in the lower 70s and overnight
lows cooling into the lower 50s.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 725 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Scattered to isolated showers will diminish this evening at SDF and
LEX and end before midnight. Clear to partly cloudy skies are
expected
this evening at BWG. Partly cloudy skies late this evening will
trend towards clearing by early morning as well due to loss of
afternoon heating.

Winds overnight will stay quite light and variable with sustained
winds 5kt or less. Light fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours
at BWG and LEX with MVFR visibilities possible.

Expect partly to mostly sunny skies early Sunday, becoming partly
cloudy with VFR ceilings during the afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. These possible
unorganized thunderstorms Sunday afternoon will be difficult to
time. Will put VCSH for a few hours in TAFs.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........JSD

000
FXUS63 KPAH 182319
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
619 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WITH WHATS LEFT OF AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SCENARIO TONIGHT THAT STILL MAKES NO
SENSE...BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING (FOR THE MOST PART) THE SAME
THING. THEY SHOW A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS OUR
CWA...AN H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A NW-SE ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION/QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND/OR NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. NORMALLY A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD TENDS TO
SQUASH/SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP...DECIDED TO KEEP SMALL POPS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE.

DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...IT WILL ALLOW PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS NEARER TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
00Z WEDNESDAY...MOVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
THURSDAY.  GEM IS BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING.  GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND
LESS DEFINED WITH PRECIP ENDING BECAUSE IT DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW
WHICH SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.  THIS GFS SOLUTION IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
RUN...AND PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT QPF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS
CONTINUING FOR OUR EASTERN THIRD OF COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.  MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE TIME PERIODS.

GEM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  GFS ALSO SHOWS
THIS FEATURE...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER BUILDING IT SOUTH AND THUS HANGS
ON TO LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.  LEANED TOWARD TO THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

MOS GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO BRING MVFR FOG IN BY SUNSET AT MOST
SITES. WAS NOT READY TO GO THAT FAR BUT CONSIDERING LAST NIGHTS
FOG WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED IT. IN CONTRAST TO NORMAL MOS
ACTUALLY BRINGS PAH EVV AND OWB DOWN EARLIER AND INTO IFR CAT
OVNGT. INTRODUCED MVFR FOG AND TEMPO SOME IFR FOG AFTER 6Z. WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TIMING AND INTENSITY. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVNGT AND A BIT GUSTY AT KCGI AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH

000
FXUS63 KPAH 182010
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
310 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

WITH WHATS LEFT OF AN UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR
CWA...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SCENARIO TONIGHT THAT STILL MAKES NO
SENSE...BUT ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING (FOR THE MOST PART) THE SAME
THING. THEY SHOW A NW-SE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS OUR
CWA...AN H5 RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A NW-SE ORIENTED
BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION/QPF DEVELOPING ALONG AND/OR NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. NORMALLY A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD TENDS TO
SQUASH/SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH THE
PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO
CRANK OUT A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP...DECIDED TO KEEP SMALL POPS
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING JUST IN CASE.

DONT EXPECT ANY PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH THE
RIDGE HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...IT WILL ALLOW PRECIP
CHANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS NEARER TO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ALL SHOW A SURFACE LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
00Z WEDNESDAY...MOVING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 00Z
THURSDAY.  GEM IS BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AND PRECIP TIMING.  GFS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND
LESS DEFINED WITH PRECIP ENDING BECAUSE IT DEVELOPS A SECOND LOW
WHICH SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.  THIS GFS SOLUTION IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS
RUN...AND PREFERRED TO LEAN TOWARD A ECMWF/GEM SOLUTION.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT QPF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  WENT WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR THE ENTIRE PAH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY POPS
CONTINUING FOR OUR EASTERN THIRD OF COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.  MODELS
INDICATE THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FA FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...SO KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE TIME PERIODS.

GEM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.  GFS ALSO SHOWS
THIS FEATURE...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER BUILDING IT SOUTH AND THUS HANGS
ON TO LIGHT PRECIP IN THE AREA INTO FRIDAY.  LEANED TOWARD TO THE
MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS AND WENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THE HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHERLY
FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING.  MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE
MAINLY AT KCGI BETWEEN 08Z AND 13Z.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED AFTER 13Z AT ALL SITES.  WINDS WILL BE FROM LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RST

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181912
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
311 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.Short Term (Now - Sunday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An area of low pressure continues to spin across the forecast area
this afternoon. Early morning light showers/drizzle gave way to a
few hours of dry conditions. However, now, with diurnal heating,
scattered showers have developed. Not seeing any lightning, but an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out given the steep lapse
rates aloft. Think the morning cloud cover helped keep instability
down a bit. The heavier rain producing showers should reside across
southeast Indiana and into the Kentucky Blue Grass, with isolated to
scattered showers elsewhere. Temperatures have reached the low to
mid 70s, with some warming still possible for several locations.

The coverage of showers and any storm that may develop will slowly
diminish this evening and tonight, as the upper low moves east. With
the departing low, an upper-level ridge axis will begin to build
across western Kentucky tonight. High resolution models continue to
indicate we will go briefly dry by around midnight through dawn.
Skies should become at least partly cloudy overnight, which will
allow temperatures to drop into the low and mid 60s and perhaps some
patchy fog or low stratus to form. Depending on the amount clearing,
some locally dense fog could develop, especially for locations that
receive rainfall today.

The upper low will move to the central Appalachians Sunday, with the
upper-level ridge axis continuing to build eastward. Expect diurnal
scattered convection across our eastern CWA, associated with the
upper low. Should also see some scattered convection across our
south and southwest with a weak warm front edging into the forecast
area. Heavy rain and of course lightning will be the main threats
with any convection that develops. High temperatures Sunday should
reach the upper 70s across the eastern CWA and low to mid 80s across
the west. Temperatures will drop back into the low and mid 60s under
partly cloudy skies. Once again, could see some patchy fog develop
around dawn Monday.

.Long Term (Monday - Saturday)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

The latest multi-model solutions continue to be in fairly good
agreement with a large upper level trough remaining nearly
stationary out over the Plains through the first part of the
forecast period.  With the upper trough to our west, the Ohio Valley
will see a relatively deep southwesterly flow aloft which will also
good moisture advection and continued warm temperatures through the
first half of the week.

Increasing humidity levels will be evident by Monday afternoon as
the southwesterly flow kicks into high gear.  Despite having good
moisture pooling across the region, latest model proximity soundings
do show expanding mid-level height rises across the region.  The
height rises along with a fairly evident capping inversion will
likely keep convection at a relative minimum Monday afternoon.
Highs Monday should top out in the 85-90 degree range.  With
dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70, it will feel like the lower
90s across the region.  Lows Monday night look to cool into the
upper 60s to around 70.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis looks to shift a bit more to the
east.  Correspondingly, mid-level heights lower through the day and
the capping inversion is not as strong as what is indicated for
Monday.  As temperatures warm again into he 85-90 degree range,
we`re likely to see isolated to scattered convection develop during
the afternoon.  Latest data does not have a well defined lifting
mechanism that stands out...other than differential heating and
convective overturning.  Therefore, still am inclined to run low
chance PoPs equally across the forecast area.  Given the elevated
instability on Tuesday, a few of the storms that pop up could be on
the strong side.  The combination of high instability and weak shear
are suggestive of pulse type convection with damaging winds and hail
being a threat.

By midweek, the model solutions suggest that the upper trough axis
will slowly transition eastward from the Plains into the Great Lakes
region.  Corresponding occluding surface cyclone will move from the
Midwest into the Ohio Valley dragging a frontal boundary across the
region.  As this boundary pushes eastward, it will encounter ample
instability and moisture to produce a large area of thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes southward into the lower Mississippi Valley.
Strong to severe storms will be possible as this front moves
through.  Complex and unresolvable mesoscale interactions at this
time scale preclude defining a particular hazardous weather threat
at this time.  We feel those feature will come into clearer view
over the next few days.

The upper trough will slowly head eastward through the southern
Great Lakes on Thursday with a secondary frontal cruising through on
Thursday bringing yet another round of convection to the region.
Upper trough then looks to push on off to the east on Friday with
mid-level height rises taking place and surface high pressure
building back into the region. This should result in dry conditions
from Friday into Saturday.

Highs Wed/Thu will be cooler due to clouds and precipitation and
readings in the upper 70s to the lower 80s are expected with
overnight lows in the 60s.  Cooler temperatures look increasingly
likely on Friday/Saturday with highs in the lower 70s and overnight
lows cooling into the lower 50s.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Upper low moving across the area continues to bring extensive cloud
cover and scattered showers to our region. Ceilings at the TAF sites
are fluctuating between MVFR and VFR. Anticipate mainly VFR
conditions. Showers should increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with the LEX and SDF areas having the best coverage, at
least for the next couple of hours. Coverage should be less around
BWG. Not seeing any lighting early this afternoon, but cannot rule
it out for later. However, given the cloud cover this morning,
thunderstorms might be more isolated. Showers and clouds should
decrease with loss of heating. Could see a mix of reduced visibility
and/or low stratus form in the pre-dawn hours. Winds will remain
southeasterly through the evening before become light and variable
overnight. Winds will be more south-southwesterly Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MJP
Long Term........MJ
Aviation.........MJP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181832
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE SHORT TERM IS A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE.
THE GFS SHOWS THIS AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM CLOSED LONGER AND ONLY OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN VA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A TROF THAT DROPS OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS NEB BY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL WAVES WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDER BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MOST THOUGHTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. PCPN WILL BE PERIODIC UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING WHEN WE APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OPEN WAVE AND THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN A DEG OR SO OF THE 80 DEG MARK WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER THE
PLAINS THE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO ONLY A VERY SLOW TRANSITION. OUR
REGION WILL BE IN A WARM MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING TO OUR WEST AS THEY
ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW. WILL BE UNABLE TO RULE OUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF CONVECTION DAILY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A RATHER SUPPRESSED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH FAIRLY
HIGH DEWPOINTS...DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL ONLY SLOWLY APPROACH EASTERN KY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL REGION BLENDED LOAD FOR NDFD
DEPICTS THIS WELL...WITH THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PRODUCING THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WITH HIGH CHANCE
PROBABILITIES LINGERING IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE EVOLVING UPPER AIR PATTERN AND
SURFACE FRONT ARE HANDLED BY THE MODELS...A SLOW PROGRESSION IS
PREFERRED...WITH THE FRONT NOT BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL
SATURDAY. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL THEN BE ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181824
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
224 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE SHORT TERM IS A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE AREA DRIFTING ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH UNDER A GENERAL RIDGE.
THE GFS SHOWS THIS AS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
SYSTEM CLOSED LONGER AND ONLY OPENS THE WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN VA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS A TROF THAT DROPS OUT OF THE NRN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY AND ONLY MAKES IT AS FAR EAST AS NEB BY MONDAY
MORNING. AT THE SFC...SEVERAL WAVES WILL ROTATE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH EACH WAVE.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES...THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDER BUT THE CLOUD COVER AND DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE
MOST THOUGHTS OF SEVERE WEATHER. PCPN WILL BE PERIODIC UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING WHEN WE APPEAR TO BE BETWEEN THE DEPARTING OPEN WAVE AND THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP PUSH
HIGH TEMPS A BIT WARMER EACH DAY WHILE THE CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DROPPING BELOW THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY HIGHS WILL
BE WITHIN A DEG OR SO OF THE 80 DEG MARK WHILE HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
EASILY CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MON INTO MON EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES
IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED WILL PASS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP A BIT AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IS
BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD PER LATEST ECMWF RUN OR MEANDERS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS OR MID ATLANTIC STATES
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT POSSIBLY NOT EXIT THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z
GFS FOR TRENDS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOAD
WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. POPS FROM LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WERE
LOWERED 10 OR SO PERCENT ON AVERAGE FROM THE GRID LOAD THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING SOME CAPPING. HOWEVER...EVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND
THUS CHANCES FOR PRECIP REALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY IN ANY
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT THE LOWEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A BIT SUPPRESSED BY ANTICIPATED PERIODIC
CLOUD CLOUD COVER...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SYSTEM WORK ACROSS THE
AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181747
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
145 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

A weak surface low is currently spinning across western Kentucky,
with quite a bit of cloud cover stretched across central Kentucky
and southern Indiana. Most of the morning rain showers have departed
northward, but more should develop for this afternoon. As mentioned
in the short-term discussion, the best chance of showers will be
from southeast Indiana southeastward through the Blue Grass of
Kentucky. There are a few breaks in the cloud cover, but that is
quickly filling in. Not sure we will see much areal coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon if we cannot get more heating, but will
give it a little more time to see if anything can develop. Have
backed off on precip coverage and thunder in the near-term forecast
before increasing chances for this afternoon. Also tweaked the
temperatures. The cloud cover is limiting warming just a bit, but
several locations have already reached the lower 70s. So, mid to
upper 70s still look reasonable.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Sunday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Currently, the center of the upper low appears to be across north
central Tennessee. There is a band of light to moderate showers
moving northeast from south central Kentucky associated with a
TROWAL ahead of the upper low. This feature is clearly identified on
300 K isentropic analysis. There is also a PWAT maxima along this
axis around 1.5 inches. Have forecast this feature to slowly move
NNE through the early morning hours and pivoting to a more WNW-ESE
orientation as it nears the I-64 corridor. Will watch along this
boundary through the late morning into the afternoon as this will be
the best focus for scattered showers and storms. Right now have the
highest concentration of showers and storms along a line from
Madison, IN to Lexington, KY to Jackson, KY this afternoon. Further
southwest will only include an isolated chance of a shower and
thunderstorm as a batch of drier air evident on water vapor imagery
slides east southeast across south central Kentucky behind the upper
low. Cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, however as
this area will see the best heating later today.

Overall, most areas that see a shower or storm should expect a tenth
to a quarter of an inch. However, areas along the line mentioned
above might expect between a quarter and three quarters of an inch
of rain. A bit concerned about individual heavy rainers as 1.5"
PWATs are impressive and forecast soundings indicate tall and skinny
profiles with little in the way of flow through the column. However,
thinking forecast soundings may be a little overdone. Will monitor
through the day.

High temperatures should range into the mid and upper 70s today,
with a few spots around BWG around 80.

As we move into the this evening and tonight, best coverage along
the axis mentioned above will gradually diminish as upper low starts
to move east. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis will begin to
build in across western KY. Will go briefly dry by around midnight
through dawn as this occurs. Do expect skies to become at least
partly
cloudy through the overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the
low and mid 60s.

Sunday will see an increase in diurnally driven convection once
again with focus in the eastern CWA nearest the meandering upper low
and in the SW CWA where a weak warm frontal boundary will be
positioned. Again, expecting only scattered coverage. Environment
will likely be more unstable so will have to watch for heavier rain,
and cloud to ground lightning. Highs on Sunday should range in the
upper 70s east to low to mid 80s west.

.Long Term (Sunday night - Friday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An upper trof will sit over the Plains for much of the week before
finally starting to drift to the east Thursday/Friday.
Accordingly, surface low pressure and its attendant features will
also initially remain off to our west and north before beginning a
slow eastward trek.

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeast United States will
continue to pump warm and muggy air northward into the Tennessee and
Ohio valleys.  Upper level ridging, a sufficient cap, and lack of a
strong trigger should keep us dry Monday.  On Tuesday the cap
appears to weaken enough that some afternoon convection may be able
to sprout.

By Wednesday the Plains storm system will begin to edge far enough
east that thunderstorm chances will be a little better than on
Tuesday, especially by afternoon and evening.

Thursday and Friday we`ll still be in the warm and muggy air mass
with the upper trof passing by to our north and possibly a weak
surface boundary in the region.  Thunderstorm chances will be less
on Thursday than they were on Wednesday, and less still on Friday,
but can`t be completely ruled out.

We could see a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon, if we can get
enough sunshine for destabilization.  Better chances for strong
storms exist on Wednesday as we get positioned under the right
entrance region of a small upper jet and winds increase in the mid
and lower levels as well.  However, lapse rates are still not very
impressive and clouds may hamper surface instability.  Nevertheless,
if we`re going to get strong storms this week, right now Wednesday
looks like the best chance.

As for temperatures, models are wanting to bring some very warm
readings in for highs on Monday...into the lower 90s, which is 15
degrees above normal and near record levels.  However over the past
couple of days clouds have done a very good job keeping temperatures
down.  We won`t see as much cloudiness on Monday as we have
recently, but still would like to shade the forecast a little cooler
than guidance (which agrees with ensemble numbers), keeping MaxT in
the middle and upper 80s for now.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the lower and middle 80s
with more clouds and showers than what we see on Monday.  Highs
Thursday/Friday may only be in the 75 to 80 degree range with the
upper trof passing by.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Upper low moving across the area continues to bring extensive cloud
cover and scattered showers to our region. Ceilings at the TAF sites
are fluctuating between MVFR and VFR. Anticipate mainly VFR
conditions. Showers should increase in coverage through the
afternoon, with the LEX and SDF areas having the best coverage, at
least for the next couple of hours. Coverage should be less around
BWG. Not seeing any lighting early this afternoon, but cannot rule
it out for later. However, given the cloud cover this morning,
thunderstorms might be more isolated. Showers and clouds should
decrease with loss of heating. Could see a mix of reduced visibility
and/or low stratus form in the pre-dawn hours. Winds will remain
southeasterly through the evening before become light and variable
overnight. Winds will be more south-southwesterly Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........MJP
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........MJP

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181739
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
139 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND PCPN IS SPARCE WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPS IN LINE SO LITTLE INSTABILITY AND CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO
EXPAND WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON SO LIKELY POPS STILL A GOOD
CALL. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND ZONES TO REMOVE FOG AND
REDUCE POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DIALED DOWN ON THE THUNDER THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN RADAR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE TN/KY
LINE IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...SLOWLY NUDGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND PROVIDING A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE COME IN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS UNLESS SOME
STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DAMPENS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT A QUICKER PACE AFTER SUNDOWN. ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER POPS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WITH LESS IN THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKER
FORCING...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AMPLE...SO STORM INTERACTION MAY
WIND UP ALLOWING FOR DECENT AREAL COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 70S TODAY...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MON INTO MON EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES
IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED WILL PASS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP A BIT AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IS
BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD PER LATEST ECMWF RUN OR MEANDERS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS OR MID ATLANTIC STATES
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT POSSIBLY NOT EXIT THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z
GFS FOR TRENDS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOAD
WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. POPS FROM LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WERE
LOWERED 10 OR SO PERCENT ON AVERAGE FROM THE GRID LOAD THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING SOME CAPPING. HOWEVER...EVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND
THUS CHANCES FOR PRECIP REALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY IN ANY
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT THE LOWEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A BIT SUPPRESSED BY ANTICIPATED PERIODIC
CLOUD CLOUD COVER...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SYSTEM WORK ACROSS THE
AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG IN THE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181511 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1111 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1111 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND PCPN IS SPARCE WITH THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER.
TEMPS IN LINE SO LITTLE INSTABILITY AND CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDER WILL
BE SLIGHT AND LIMITED TO LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PCPN COVERAGE TO
EXPAND WITH WARMER TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON SO LIKELY POPS STILL A GOOD
CALL. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND ZONES TO REMOVE FOG AND
REDUCE POPS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DIALED DOWN ON THE THUNDER THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN RADAR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE TN/KY
LINE IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...SLOWLY NUDGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND PROVIDING A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE COME IN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS UNLESS SOME
STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DAMPENS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT A QUICKER PACE AFTER SUNDOWN. ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER POPS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WITH LESS IN THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKER
FORCING...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AMPLE...SO STORM INTERACTION MAY
WIND UP ALLOWING FOR DECENT AREAL COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 70S TODAY...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MON INTO MON EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES
IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED WILL PASS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP A BIT AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IS
BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD PER LATEST ECMWF RUN OR MEANDERS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS OR MID ATLANTIC STATES
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT POSSIBLY NOT EXIT THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z
GFS FOR TRENDS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOAD
WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. POPS FROM LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WERE
LOWERED 10 OR SO PERCENT ON AVERAGE FROM THE GRID LOAD THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING SOME CAPPING. HOWEVER...EVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND
THUS CHANCES FOR PRECIP REALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY IN ANY
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT THE LOWEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A BIT SUPPRESSED BY ANTICIPATED PERIODIC
CLOUD CLOUD COVER...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SYSTEM WORK ACROSS THE
AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181511
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1110 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 1110 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

A weak surface low is currently spinning across western Kentucky,
with quite a bit of cloud cover stretched across central Kentucky
and southern Indiana. Most of the morning rain showers have departed
northward, but more should develop for this afternoon. As mentioned
in the short-term discussion, the best chance of showers will be
from southeast Indiana southeastward through the Blue Grass of
Kentucky. There are a few breaks in the cloud cover, but that is
quickly filling in. Not sure we will see much areal coverage of
thunderstorms this afternoon if we cannot get more heating, but will
give it a little more time to see if anything can develop. Have
backed off on precip coverage and thunder in the near-term forecast
before increasing chances for this afternoon. Also tweaked the
temperatures. The cloud cover is limiting warming just a bit, but
several locations have already reached the lower 70s. So, mid to
upper 70s still look reasonable.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Sunday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Currently, the center of the upper low appears to be across north
central Tennessee. There is a band of light to moderate showers
moving northeast from south central Kentucky associated with a
TROWAL ahead of the upper low. This feature is clearly identified on
300 K isentropic analysis. There is also a PWAT maxima along this
axis around 1.5 inches. Have forecast this feature to slowly move
NNE through the early morning hours and pivoting to a more WNW-ESE
orientation as it nears the I-64 corridor. Will watch along this
boundary through the late morning into the afternoon as this will be
the best focus for scattered showers and storms. Right now have the
highest concentration of showers and storms along a line from
Madison, IN to Lexington, KY to Jackson, KY this afternoon. Further
southwest will only include an isolated chance of a shower and
thunderstorm as a batch of drier air evident on water vapor imagery
slides east southeast across south central Kentucky behind the upper
low. Cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, however as
this area will see the best heating later today.

Overall, most areas that see a shower or storm should expect a tenth
to a quarter of an inch. However, areas along the line mentioned
above might expect between a quarter and three quarters of an inch
of rain. A bit concerned about individual heavy rainers as 1.5"
PWATs are impressive and forecast soundings indicate tall and skinny
profiles with little in the way of flow through the column. However,
thinking forecast soundings may be a little overdone. Will monitor
through the day.

High temperatures should range into the mid and upper 70s today,
with a few spots around BWG around 80.

As we move into the this evening and tonight, best coverage along
the axis mentioned above will gradually diminish as upper low starts
to move east. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis will begin to
build in across western KY. Will go briefly dry by around midnight
through dawn as this occurs. Do expect skies to become at least
partly
cloudy through the overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the
low and mid 60s.

Sunday will see an increase in diurnally driven convection once
again with focus in the eastern CWA nearest the meandering upper low
and in the SW CWA where a weak warm frontal boundary will be
positioned. Again, expecting only scattered coverage. Environment
will likely be more unstable so will have to watch for heavier rain,
and cloud to ground lightning. Highs on Sunday should range in the
upper 70s east to low to mid 80s west.

.Long Term (Sunday night - Friday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An upper trof will sit over the Plains for much of the week before
finally starting to drift to the east Thursday/Friday.
Accordingly, surface low pressure and its attendant features will
also initially remain off to our west and north before beginning a
slow eastward trek.

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeast United States will
continue to pump warm and muggy air northward into the Tennessee and
Ohio valleys.  Upper level ridging, a sufficient cap, and lack of a
strong trigger should keep us dry Monday.  On Tuesday the cap
appears to weaken enough that some afternoon convection may be able
to sprout.

By Wednesday the Plains storm system will begin to edge far enough
east that thunderstorm chances will be a little better than on
Tuesday, especially by afternoon and evening.

Thursday and Friday we`ll still be in the warm and muggy air mass
with the upper trof passing by to our north and possibly a weak
surface boundary in the region.  Thunderstorm chances will be less
on Thursday than they were on Wednesday, and less still on Friday,
but can`t be completely ruled out.

We could see a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon, if we can get
enough sunshine for destabilization.  Better chances for strong
storms exist on Wednesday as we get positioned under the right
entrance region of a small upper jet and winds increase in the mid
and lower levels as well.  However, lapse rates are still not very
impressive and clouds may hamper surface instability.  Nevertheless,
if we`re going to get strong storms this week, right now Wednesday
looks like the best chance.

As for temperatures, models are wanting to bring some very warm
readings in for highs on Monday...into the lower 90s, which is 15
degrees above normal and near record levels.  However over the past
couple of days clouds have done a very good job keeping temperatures
down.  We won`t see as much cloudiness on Monday as we have
recently, but still would like to shade the forecast a little cooler
than guidance (which agrees with ensemble numbers), keeping MaxT in
the middle and upper 80s for now.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the lower and middle 80s
with more clouds and showers than what we see on Monday.  Highs
Thursday/Friday may only be in the 75 to 80 degree range with the
upper trof passing by.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Upper low moving across the area continues to bring extensive cloud
cover and scattered light rains to our region. BWG has yet to drop
into the IFR range, although is making progress as latest obs have
been more solidly into the low MVFR range. Will carry IFR ceilings
through around midday, before improvement to MVFR occurs.

LEX will be in the best position to see numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms today as an area of convergence occurs NE of
the upper level disturbance. Have depicted the best time for -TSRA
to occur in the TAFs.

SDF will likely see scattered showers and storms through the day,
although overall coverage should be less and will hold off on
nailing down a specific time until confidence is higher. Will only
mention VCTS for now. Otherwise, expect there could be a brief
period of MVFR ceilings just after sunrise, with conditions
improving again by midday. Overall, expect light easterly and
southeasterly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........MJP
Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 181146 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
746 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DIALED DOWN ON THE THUNDER THROUGH THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST
TRENDS IN RADAR. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS ACCORDING TO THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE TN/KY
LINE IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...SLOWLY NUDGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND PROVIDING A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE COME IN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS UNLESS SOME
STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DAMPENS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT A QUICKER PACE AFTER SUNDOWN. ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER POPS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WITH LESS IN THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKER
FORCING...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AMPLE...SO STORM INTERACTION MAY
WIND UP ALLOWING FOR DECENT AREAL COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 70S TODAY...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MON INTO MON EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES
IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED WILL PASS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP A BIT AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IS
BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD PER LATEST ECMWF RUN OR MEANDERS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS OR MID ATLANTIC STATES
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT POSSIBLY NOT EXIT THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z
GFS FOR TRENDS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOAD
WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. POPS FROM LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WERE
LOWERED 10 OR SO PERCENT ON AVERAGE FROM THE GRID LOAD THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING SOME CAPPING. HOWEVER...EVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND
THUS CHANCES FOR PRECIP REALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY IN ANY
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT THE LOWEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A BIT SUPPRESSED BY ANTICIPATED PERIODIC
CLOUD CLOUD COVER...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SYSTEM WORK ACROSS THE
AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH
TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 181129
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term (Now - Sunday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Currently, the center of the upper low appears to be across north
central Tennessee. There is a band of light to moderate showers
moving northeast from south central Kentucky associated with a
TROWAL ahead of the upper low. This feature is clearly identified on
300 K isentropic analysis. There is also a PWAT maxima along this
axis around 1.5 inches. Have forecast this feature to slowly move
NNE through the early morning hours and pivoting to a more WNW-ESE
orientation as it nears the I-64 corridor. Will watch along this
boundary through the late morning into the afternoon as this will be
the best focus for scattered showers and storms. Right now have the
highest concentration of showers and storms along a line from
Madison, IN to Lexington, KY to Jackson, KY this afternoon. Further
southwest will only include an isolated chance of a shower and
thunderstorm as a batch of drier air evident on water vapor imagery
slides east southeast across south central Kentucky behind the upper
low. Cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, however as
this area will see the best heating later today.

Overall, most areas that see a shower or storm should expect a tenth
to a quarter of an inch. However, areas along the line mentioned
above might expect between a quarter and three quarters of an inch
of rain. A bit concerned about individual heavy rainers as 1.5"
PWATs are impressive and forecast soundings indicate tall and skinny
profiles with little in the way of flow through the column. However,
thinking forecast soundings may be a little overdone. Will monitor
through the day.

High temperatures should range into the mid and upper 70s today,
with a few spots around BWG around 80.

As we move into the this evening and tonight, best coverage along
the axis mentioned above will gradually diminish as upper low starts
to move east. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis will begin to
build in across western KY. Will go briefly dry by around midnight
through dawn as this occurs. Do expect skies to become at least
partly
cloudy through the overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the
low and mid 60s.

Sunday will see an increase in diurnally driven convection once
again with focus in the eastern CWA nearest the meandering upper low
and in the SW CWA where a weak warm frontal boundary will be
positioned. Again, expecting only scattered coverage. Environment
will likely be more unstable so will have to watch for heavier rain,
and cloud to ground lightning. Highs on Sunday should range in the
upper 70s east to low to mid 80s west.

.Long Term (Sunday night - Friday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An upper trof will sit over the Plains for much of the week before
finally starting to drift to the east Thursday/Friday.
Accordingly, surface low pressure and its attendant features will
also initially remain off to our west and north before beginning a
slow eastward trek.

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeast United States will
continue to pump warm and muggy air northward into the Tennessee and
Ohio valleys.  Upper level ridging, a sufficient cap, and lack of a
strong trigger should keep us dry Monday.  On Tuesday the cap
appears to weaken enough that some afternoon convection may be able
to sprout.

By Wednesday the Plains storm system will begin to edge far enough
east that thunderstorm chances will be a little better than on
Tuesday, especially by afternoon and evening.

Thursday and Friday we`ll still be in the warm and muggy air mass
with the upper trof passing by to our north and possibly a weak
surface boundary in the region.  Thunderstorm chances will be less
on Thursday than they were on Wednesday, and less still on Friday,
but can`t be completely ruled out.

We could see a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon, if we can get
enough sunshine for destabilization.  Better chances for strong
storms exist on Wednesday as we get positioned under the right
entrance region of a small upper jet and winds increase in the mid
and lower levels as well.  However, lapse rates are still not very
impressive and clouds may hamper surface instability.  Nevertheless,
if we`re going to get strong storms this week, right now Wednesday
looks like the best chance.

As for temperatures, models are wanting to bring some very warm
readings in for highs on Monday...into the lower 90s, which is 15
degrees above normal and near record levels.  However over the past
couple of days clouds have done a very good job keeping temperatures
down.  We won`t see as much cloudiness on Monday as we have
recently, but still would like to shade the forecast a little cooler
than guidance (which agrees with ensemble numbers), keeping MaxT in
the middle and upper 80s for now.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the lower and middle 80s
with more clouds and showers than what we see on Monday.  Highs
Thursday/Friday may only be in the 75 to 80 degree range with the
upper trof passing by.

&&

.Aviation (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 720 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Upper low moving across the area continues to bring extensive cloud
cover and scattered light rains to our region. BWG has yet to drop
into the IFR range, although is making progress as latest obs have
been more solidly into the low MVFR range. Will carry IFR ceilings
through around midday, before improvement to MVFR occurs.

LEX will be in the best position to see numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms today as an area of convergence occurs NE of
the upper level disturbance. Have depicted the best time for -TSRA
to occur in the TAFs.

SDF will likely see scattered showers and storms through the day,
although overall coverage should be less and will hold off on
nailing down a specific time until confidence is higher. Will only
mention VCTS for now. Otherwise, expect there could be a brief
period of MVFR ceilings just after sunrise, with conditions
improving again by midday. Overall, expect light easterly and
southeasterly winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KPAH 180927
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
427 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THE CLEARED SKIES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE NEARBY MS RIVER
COUNTIES IN SW IL/FAR SW KY. DEPENDING UPON THE SKY COVER...IT
COULD FURTHER PROTRUDE EASTWARD...BUT LATEST 11-3.9U IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS (PATCHY DRIZZLE/MIST) WILL MORE OR LESS
PERSIST FURTHER EAST. COLLABORATED/ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN PTNS AFOREMENTIONED.

WITH THE OPEN WAVED LOW MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD/EASTWARD UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...LINGERING HIGH MRH PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST
WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE DAYTIME TODAY. MEAN
500 MB RIDGE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW`S DEPARTURE...AND SHOULD PROCLUDE MOST ACTIVITY IN THE
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY PAINTING A RIBBON OF LINGERING HIGHER
MRH WITH LIGHT QPF ON THE LEE OF THE RIDGE...SO WE`VE MAINTAINED
OUR GOING SLGT CHANCE MENTION THERE FOR NOW.

AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST MONDAY...HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR
WEST WILL HELP DEVELOP/EAST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE FA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR ALONG/AHEAD OF ITS
APPROACH...WHICH TOUCHES INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MON-MON
NITE VISA VI SWODY3.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

A 500MB SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE GENERALLY IDENTIFIED BY THE MODELS MOVING NE
ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN
HIGHER RH AND DYNAMIC FIELDS OVER SOUTHEAST MO VS. FARTHER SE INTO
THE FA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FA
WILL BE SLUGGISH BEFORE IT POSSIBLY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE FA
IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT OVER THE WEST/SE MO/SW IL AND TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NEAR AND
E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM...SOME DECENT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
EXCESSIVE..TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR.

REGARDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
THEREAFTER...THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL POSSIBLY FAVOR
SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...MORE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU/FRI WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

IFR VSBYS IN DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR AT KCGI. MVFR CIGS ARE PREVALENT
FURTHER EAST AT KEVV/KOWB AND MAY INCLUDE PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR MIST REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR CAT AS WELL. KPAH RESTS BESTWEEN
AND WILL FLUX FROM IFR TO MVFR CIGS. DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE
CLEARING LINE MOVES...VSBYS COULD DETERIORATE IN DEVELOPING FOG AS
WELL. AFTER DAYBREAK CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND VFR RULES SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AM...ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SLGT
CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS IS BEST EAST (KEVV/KOWB) BUT TOO LITTLE TO
MENTION AS A PREVAILING CONDITION AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ084-088-
     092-093.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>004.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 180834
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
434 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE TN/KY
LINE IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...SLOWLY NUDGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND PROVIDING A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE COME IN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS UNLESS SOME
STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DAMPENS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT A QUICKER PACE AFTER SUNDOWN. ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER POPS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WITH LESS IN THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKER
FORCING...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AMPLE...SO STORM INTERACTION MAY
WIND UP ALLOWING FOR DECENT AREAL COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 70S TODAY...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE REGION AND
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION. FURTHER WEST...A TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MON INTO MON EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW. A FEW SHORTWAVES
IN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ROTATING AROUND THE CLOSED WILL PASS
GENERALLY TO THE WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY THROUGH
MIDWEEK. EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO OPEN UP A BIT AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IS
BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD PER LATEST ECMWF RUN OR MEANDERS
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS OR MID ATLANTIC STATES
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW. AT THE SFC...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT POSSIBLY NOT EXIT THE CWA BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS POINT...THE FORECAST LEANS A BIT TOWARD THE 0Z ECMWF AND 0Z
GFS FOR TRENDS LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS GRID LOAD
WAS GENERALLY FOLLOWED. POPS FROM LATE MON INTO MON NIGHT WERE
LOWERED 10 OR SO PERCENT ON AVERAGE FROM THE GRID LOAD THE RIDGE
SHOULD BRING SOME CAPPING. HOWEVER...EVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF
THE ECMWF VERIFIES THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY...AND
THUS CHANCES FOR PRECIP REALLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY IN ANY
PERIOD. AT THIS POINT THE LOWEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE FROM LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS INTO TUESDAY.

DIURNAL RANGES WILL BE A BIT SUPPRESSED BY ANTICIPATED PERIODIC
CLOUD CLOUD COVER...RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AND SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM TIME TO TIME. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER SYSTEM WORK ACROSS THE
AREA LATER IN THE PERIOD...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...BESIDES SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING SEEN THROUGH DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KPAH 180817
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
317 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED UNDER THE CLEARED SKIES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI...AND SHOULD EXPAND TO INCLUDE NEARBY MS RIVER
COUNTIES IN SW IL/FAR SW KY. DEPENDING UPON THE SKY COVER...IT
COULD FURTHER PROTRUDE EASTWARD...BUT LATEST 11-3.9U IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE LOW CLOUDS (PATCHY DRIZZLE/MIST) WILL MORE OR LESS
PERSIST FURTHER EAST. COLLABORATED/ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN PTNS AFOREMENTIONED.

WITH THE OPEN WAVED LOW MOVING FURTHER NORTHWARD/EASTWARD UP THE
OHIO VALLEY TODAY...LINGERING HIGH MRH PARTICULARLY IN OUR EAST
WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY SHOWERS/STORMS TO FIRE DAYTIME TODAY. MEAN
500 MB RIDGE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW`S DEPARTURE...AND SHOULD PROCLUDE MOST ACTIVITY IN THE
SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT TIME FRAME. HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENTLY PAINTING A RIBBON OF LINGERING HIGHER
MRH WITH LIGHT QPF ON THE LEE OF THE RIDGE...SO WE`VE MAINTAINED
OUR GOING SLGT CHANCE MENTION THERE FOR NOW.

AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST MONDAY...HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR
WEST WILL HELP DEVELOP/EAST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE FA LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING
THIS SYSTEM IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR ALONG/AHEAD OF ITS
APPROACH...WHICH TOUCHES INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES MON-MON
NITE VISA VI SWODY3.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

A 500MB SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
A WEAK SHORT WAVE GENERALLY IDENTIFIED BY THE MODELS MOVING NE
ACROSS THE FA TUESDAY. THIS WILL YIELD THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES IN
HIGHER RH AND DYNAMIC FIELDS OVER SOUTHEAST MO VS. FARTHER SE INTO
THE FA. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT`S EASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS THE FA
WILL BE SLUGGISH BEFORE IT POSSIBLY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE FA
IN THE THU/FRI TIME FRAME. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
APPROACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE FA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND MOVE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TUE AND TUE
NIGHT OVER THE WEST/SE MO/SW IL AND TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NEAR AND
E OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GIVEN THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE
MID/LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM...SOME DECENT...BUT PROBABLY NOT
EXCESSIVE..TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR.

REGARDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
THEREAFTER...THE DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY WILL POSSIBLY FAVOR
SOME CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER...MORE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE WILL BE DETERMINED AS
MODEL CONSISTENCY IMPROVES.

A GRADUAL COOLING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY THU/FRI WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

IFR VSBYS IN DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR AT KCGI. MVFR CIGS ARE PREVALENT
FURTHER EAST AT KEVV/KOWB AND MAY INCLUDE PERIODS OF LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR MIST REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR CAT AS WELL. KPAH RESTS BESTWEEN
AND WILL FLUX FROM IFR TO MVFR CIGS. DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE
CLEARING LINE MOVES...VSBYS COULD DETERIORATE IN DEVELOPING FOG AS
WELL. AFTER DAYBREAK CONDITIONS IMPROVE AND VFR RULES SHOULD
DEVELOP BY LATE AM...ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED. SLGT
CHANCE SHOWERS/STORMS IS BEST EAST (KEVV/KOWB) BUT TOO LITTLE TO
MENTION AS A PREVAILING CONDITION AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ084-088-
     092-093.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ001>004.

&&

$$

000
FXUS63 KJKL 180755 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ITS WHEELS NEAR THE TN/KY
LINE IN THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE NEXT
36 HOURS...SLOWLY NUDGING THIS FEATURE EASTWARD AND PROVIDING A
CONTINUED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. POPS HAVE COME IN LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL FOR TODAY AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. PWATS WILL BE
AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND STORM MOTIONS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS UNLESS SOME
STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF MINOR FLOODING
OF LOW LYING AREAS.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DAMPENS TONIGHT...CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AT A QUICKER PACE AFTER SUNDOWN. ON SUNDAY...THE BETTER POPS
WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST WITH LESS IN THE WEST. DESPITE THE WEAKER
FORCING...INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE AMPLE...SO STORM INTERACTION MAY
WIND UP ALLOWING FOR DECENT AREAL COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE DAY.
AGAIN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN.

FOR TEMPERATURES...STUCK WITH A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS
RECOVERING TO THE MID 70S TODAY...AND UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...BESIDES SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING SEEN THROUGH DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 180653
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.Short Term (Now - Sunday)...
Issued at 252 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Currently, the center of the upper low appears to be across north
central Tennessee. There is a band of light to moderate showers
moving northeast from south central Kentucky associated with a
TROWAL ahead of the upper low. This feature is clearly identified on
300 K isentropic analysis. There is also a PWAT maxima along this
axis around 1.5 inches. Have forecast this feature to slowly move
NNE through the early morning hours and pivoting to a more WNW-ESE
orientation as it nears the I-64 corridor. Will watch along this
boundary through the late morning into the afternoon as this will be
the best focus for scattered showers and storms. Right now have the
highest concentration of showers and storms along a line from
Madison, IN to Lexington, KY to Jackson, KY this afternoon. Further
southwest will only include an isolated chance of a shower and
thunderstorm as a batch of drier air evident on water vapor imagery
slides east southeast across south central Kentucky behind the upper
low. Cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm, however as
this area will see the best heating later today.

Overall, most areas that see a shower or storm should expect a tenth
to a quarter of an inch. However, areas along the line mentioned
above might expect between a quarter and three quarters of an inch
of rain. A bit concerned about individual heavy rainers as 1.5"
PWATs are impressive and forecast soundings indicate tall and skinny
profiles with little in the way of flow through the column. However,
thinking forecast soundings may be a little overdone. Will monitor
through the day.

High temperatures should range into the mid and upper 70s today,
with a few spots around BWG around 80.

As we move into the this evening and tonight, best coverage along
the axis mentioned above will gradually diminish as upper low starts
to move east. Meanwhile, an upper level ridge axis will begin to
build in across western KY. Will go briefly dry by around midnight
through dawn as this occurs. Do expect skies to become at least
partly
cloudy through the overnight, allowing temperatures to drop into the
low and mid 60s.

Sunday will see an increase in diurnally driven convection once
again with focus in the eastern CWA nearest the meandering upper low
and in the SW CWA where a weak warm frontal boundary will be
positioned. Again, expecting only scattered coverage. Environment
will likely be more unstable so will have to watch for heavier rain,
and cloud to ground lightning. Highs on Sunday should range in the
upper 70s east to low to mid 80s west.

.Long Term (Sunday night - Friday)...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

An upper trof will sit over the Plains for much of the week before
finally starting to drift to the east Thursday/Friday.
Accordingly, surface low pressure and its attendant features will
also initially remain off to our west and north before beginning a
slow eastward trek.

Atlantic high pressure ridging into the southeast United States will
continue to pump warm and muggy air northward into the Tennessee and
Ohio valleys.  Upper level ridging, a sufficient cap, and lack of a
strong trigger should keep us dry Monday.  On Tuesday the cap
appears to weaken enough that some afternoon convection may be able
to sprout.

By Wednesday the Plains storm system will begin to edge far enough
east that thunderstorm chances will be a little better than on
Tuesday, especially by afternoon and evening.

Thursday and Friday we`ll still be in the warm and muggy air mass
with the upper trof passing by to our north and possibly a weak
surface boundary in the region.  Thunderstorm chances will be less
on Thursday than they were on Wednesday, and less still on Friday,
but can`t be completely ruled out.

We could see a few strong storms Tuesday afternoon, if we can get
enough sunshine for destabilization.  Better chances for strong
storms exist on Wednesday as we get positioned under the right
entrance region of a small upper jet and winds increase in the mid
and lower levels as well.  However, lapse rates are still not very
impressive and clouds may hamper surface instability.  Nevertheless,
if we`re going to get strong storms this week, right now Wednesday
looks like the best chance.

As for temperatures, models are wanting to bring some very warm
readings in for highs on Monday...into the lower 90s, which is 15
degrees above normal and near record levels.  However over the past
couple of days clouds have done a very good job keeping temperatures
down.  We won`t see as much cloudiness on Monday as we have
recently, but still would like to shade the forecast a little cooler
than guidance (which agrees with ensemble numbers), keeping MaxT in
the middle and upper 80s for now.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday should be in the lower and middle 80s
with more clouds and showers than what we see on Monday.  Highs
Thursday/Friday may only be in the 75 to 80 degree range with the
upper trof passing by.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Upper low moving across the area continues to bring extensive cloud
cover and scattered light rains to our region. A round of showers is
currently moving through BWG, however expect LEX to be the only
other concern for precipitation as we move toward dawn. Coverage of
showers still remains sparse enough to only carry VCSH. The
threat for thunder still looks isolated enough to keep out of the
TAFs this go around. Latest high-res models show a push of extra
low-level moisture moving into KBWG early this morning, and possibly
SDF around daybreak, so have kept in previous forecaster`s thinking
of at least IFR cigs overnight at BWG. Do have ceilings just above
fuel alternate through the late morning as SDF. It will take some
time to lift those bases in the morning, and expect additional
showers to develop at the same time. Those chances should fade with
loss of heating this afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......BJS
Long Term........13
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 180621 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
221 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

INCREASED THE POPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN
THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS...OTHERWISE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST WAS NEEDED BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
60S PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN TO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH AND AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-75 THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF I-75...VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
POINT TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. IN FACT...STORMS OCCURRING
OVER THE TRI-CITIES OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF HIGHER SBCAPE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BIG SANDY REGION. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT HOLD
TOGETHER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FIRE UP THIS
EVENING AND THEN WANE AFTER SUNDOWN.

WENT AHEAD AND FINE TUNED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS. ALSO...TRENDED POPS HIGHER
FOR SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ON SATURDAY WITH STORM MOTIONS PROGGED TO
BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE ECMWF OVERALL...WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...USED A BLEND OF THE TWO TO
FORMULATE THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. OVERALL...THE MEXMOS POPS
DID LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PERIODS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. WENT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. BEFORE THAT...A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD KEEP
THE FRONT AT BAY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT OCCASIONALLY
MEANDERING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEXMOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 221 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TODAY...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS. TEMPORARY IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...BESIDES SOME PATCHY
FOG BEING SEEN THROUGH DAWN...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN

000
FXUS63 KLMK 180449
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Tweaked grids toward current obs. Still have a fairly juicy airmass
in place with precipitable waters ranging from 1.4-1.6 inches, as
per latest SPC mesonanalysis. It will not take much for some light
rain/drizzle to come out of this airmass. Patchy fog will be an
issue as well, though no one location received lots of rain, as was
the case last night by this time. A look at the water vapor imagery
indicates some drier air working its way into the region by
daybreak. Have trimmed pops by daybreak over the west some in
response to this drier air. Updated products will be out shortly.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Pulled thunderstorm wording from the activity tonight. Not seeing
any lightning across our region this hour, and persistent cloud
cover has kept us from being able to generate anything more than
light rain showers. Areas to our north were able to warm up today,
and thus a nice band of storms developed across central IN/southwest
OH. Cannot rule out additional scattered activity through the night,
with the upper low moving right across us. Kept in patchy fog for
the night, given that more areas received rainfall today than
yesterday, albeit lighter totals.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Saturday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Combination of satellite imagery and observations reveal an area of
surface low pressure over eastern AR/western TN with the upper low
spinning slowly into far western Kentucky.  Out ahead of this
system, widespread cloud cover was noted over the region with a
large area of light to moderate rain across the southern half of
Kentucky.  Given the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, lapse
rates are rather poor resulting in little, if any, instability.
Therefore, not expecting much in the way of thunderstorm development
across the region this afternoon...though can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder or two.  We currently think the bulk of the thunderstorm
development will be just to our north along a line from near Cincy
to Indy and points northward.  Temperatures were being modulated by
the cloud cover and precipitation.  Readings ranged from the upper
60s to around 70 in the south with lower-middle 70s in the north.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect widespread cloudiness to
continue.  Band of widespread showers across southern Kentucky will
continue to slowly advect northward.  Temperatures will not change
all that much over the next few hours with lower-middle 70s in
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with upper 60s to around 70
in the south.

For tonight, the multi-model short term consensus is in pretty good
agreement with the upper low moving slowly across the middle Ohio
Valley.  Associated surface low pressure will likely move across
southern TN overnight with the bulk of convection occurring just
ahead of this low.  Shower activity across Kentucky and southern
Indiana will diminish after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating.  Isolated showers will probably continue overnight, but
widely isolated at best.  With plenty of low-level moisture around
and winds becoming light as the upper low passes overhead, expect
another round of patchy dense fog to develop overnight.  The fog
will be most dense in areas that received rainfall this afternoon.
In tonight`s case, the most widespread fog would probably be across
southern Kentucky.  Lows tonight will remain mild with readings in
the 60-65 degree range.

On Saturday, the upper low will continue to slowly pull on to the
east.  Combination of differential heating and a moist airmass will
likely result in scattered convection redeveloping during the late
morning and into the afternoon.  At this juncture, it is difficult
to delineate an area at more risk for convective development.  It
appears that convective coverage may be more favored over the east
which would be in closer proximity to the upper low feature.  Severe
weather does not look likely at this point given the expected
widespread cloud cover and generally poor low-mid level lapse
rates.  Any storm that does form will be capable of producing very
heavy rains...gusty winds and possibly some small hail.  High
temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 70s.

By Saturday night, the upper level low should continue to move on
off to the east.  We should see convection wane again with the loss
of heating.  Thus, will keep higher PoPs in the forecast for the
evening and then let things diminish overnight.  Patchy fog will be
a possibility again with lows in the 60-65 degree range.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

The upper low that moves over our forecast area Saturday should move
to the central Appalachians Sunday, with an upper level ridge axis
building in across western Kentucky. The upper low will still have
influence over eastern Kentucky, which includes portions of our
eastern CWA. Expect diurnally driven convection with afternoon
heating. High temperatures Sunday should range from the mid and
upper 70s in the eastern CWA to low and mid 80s in the west.

The upper ridge will strengthen over the Ohio Valley at the start of
the new work week. This will aid in capping the environment, which
will produce the best chance at mostly dry conditions Monday and
most of Tuesday. Tuesday will bring a return of scattered shower and
storm chances, but looks to be later in the day and mainly across
our northern forecast area, as a central CONUS trough approaches.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s, with
overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

As the central CONUS trough slowly progresses eastward, a more
active weather period will take place midweek. A surface low will
track through the Great Lakes, and the trailing cold front will push
into our CWA. Numerous showers and storms will be possible ahead of
the front from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With
increasing speed shear expected with the stronger trough aloft, some
stronger storms are possible. High temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, generally upper 70s to lower
80s with the additional cloud cover and rain.

Models are still having a difficult time deciding when that front
will push through the forecast area, but it appears to pass some
time during the day Thursday. This will keep scattered showers and
storms in the forecast for a little longer, but dry weather should
return Friday as the upper trough axis pushes east of the forecast
area. Temperatures should top out in the middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sat May 18 2013

Upper low moving across the area continues to bring extensive cloud
cover and scattered light rains to our region. A round of showers is
currently moving through BWG, however expect LEX to be the only
other concern for precipitation as we move toward dawn. Coverage of
showers still remains sparse enough to only carry VCSH. The
threat for thunder still looks isolated enough to keep out of the
TAFs this go around. Latest high-res models show a push of extra
low-level moisture moving into KBWG early this morning, and possibly
SDF around daybreak, so have kept in previous forecaster`s thinking
of at least IFR cigs overnight at BWG. Do have ceilings just above
fuel alternate through the late morning as SDF. It will take some
time to lift those bases in the morning, and expect additional
showers to develop at the same time. Those chances should fade with
loss of heating this afternoon/evening.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........BJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 180222
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SOME ADDITIONAL FINE TUNING OF THE FORECAST WAS NEEDED BASED ON
RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND OBS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...ALONG WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPS SEEM ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER
60S PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN TO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH AND AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-75 THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF I-75...VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
POINT TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. IN FACT...STORMS OCCURRING
OVER THE TRI-CITIES OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF HIGHER SBCAPE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BIG SANDY REGION. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT HOLD
TOGETHER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FIRE UP THIS
EVENING AND THEN WANE AFTER SUNDOWN.

WENT AHEAD AND FINE TUNED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS. ALSO...TRENDED POPS HIGHER
FOR SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ON SATURDAY WITH STORM MOTIONS PROGGED TO
BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE ECWMF OVERALL...WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...USED A BLEND OF THE TWO TO
FORMULATE THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. OVERALL...THE MEXMOS POPS
DID LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PERIODS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. WENT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. BEFORE THAT...A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD KEEP
THE FRONT AT BAY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT OCCASIONALLY
MEANDERING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEXMOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF JKL TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN OVER THE
AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. FOG WILL BE THE
OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND DENSE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ABE

000
FXUS63 KLMK 180108
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
907 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 905 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Tweaked grids toward current obs. Still have a fairly juicy airmass
in place with precipitable waters ranging from 1.4-1.6 inches, as
per latest SPC mesonanalysis. It will not take much for some light
rain/drizzle to come out of this airmass. Patchy fog will be an
issue as well, though no one location received lots of rain, as was
the case last night by this time. A look at the water vapor imagery
indicates some drier air working its way into the region by
daybreak. Have trimmed pops by daybreak over the west some in
response to this drier air. Updated products will be out shortly.

Issued at 535 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Pulled thunderstorm wording from the activity tonight. Not seeing
any lightning across our region this hour, and persistent cloud
cover has kept us from being able to generate anything more than
light rain showers. Areas to our north were able to warm up today,
and thus a nice band of storms developed across central IN/southwest
OH. Cannot rule out additional scattered activity through the night,
with the upper low moving right across us. Kept in patchy fog for
the night, given that more areas received rainfall today than
yesterday, albeit lighter totals.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Saturday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Combination of satellite imagery and observations reveal an area of
surface low pressure over eastern AR/western TN with the upper low
spinning slowly into far western Kentucky.  Out ahead of this
system, widespread cloud cover was noted over the region with a
large area of light to moderate rain across the southern half of
Kentucky.  Given the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, lapse
rates are rather poor resulting in little, if any, instability.
Therefore, not expecting much in the way of thunderstorm development
across the region this afternoon...though can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder or two.  We currently think the bulk of the thunderstorm
development will be just to our north along a line from near Cincy
to Indy and points northward.  Temperatures were being modulated by
the cloud cover and precipitation.  Readings ranged from the upper
60s to around 70 in the south with lower-middle 70s in the north.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect widespread cloudiness to
continue.  Band of widespread showers across southern Kentucky will
continue to slowly advect northward.  Temperatures will not change
all that much over the next few hours with lower-middle 70s in
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with upper 60s to around 70
in the south.

For tonight, the multi-model short term consensus is in pretty good
agreement with the upper low moving slowly across the middle Ohio
Valley.  Associated surface low pressure will likely move across
southern TN overnight with the bulk of convection occurring just
ahead of this low.  Shower activity across Kentucky and southern
Indiana will diminish after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating.  Isolated showers will probably continue overnight, but
widely isolated at best.  With plenty of low-level moisture around
and winds becoming light as the upper low passes overhead, expect
another round of patchy dense fog to develop overnight.  The fog
will be most dense in areas that received rainfall this afternoon.
In tonight`s case, the most widespread fog would probably be across
southern Kentucky.  Lows tonight will remain mild with readings in
the 60-65 degree range.

On Saturday, the upper low will continue to slowly pull on to the
east.  Combination of differential heating and a moist airmass will
likely result in scattered convection redeveloping during the late
morning and into the afternoon.  At this juncture, it is difficult
to delineate an area at more risk for convective development.  It
appears that convective coverage may be more favored over the east
which would be in closer proximity to the upper low feature.  Severe
weather does not look likely at this point given the expected
widespread cloud cover and generally poor low-mid level lapse
rates.  Any storm that does form will be capable of producing very
heavy rains...gusty winds and possibly some small hail.  High
temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 70s.

By Saturday night, the upper level low should continue to move on
off to the east.  We should see convection wane again with the loss
of heating.  Thus, will keep higher PoPs in the forecast for the
evening and then let things diminish overnight.  Patchy fog will be
a possibility again with lows in the 60-65 degree range.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

The upper low that moves over our forecast area Saturday should move
to the central Appalachians Sunday, with an upper level ridge axis
building in across western Kentucky. The upper low will still have
influence over eastern Kentucky, which includes portions of our
eastern CWA. Expect diurnally driven convection with afternoon
heating. High temperatures Sunday should range from the mid and
upper 70s in the eastern CWA to low and mid 80s in the west.

The upper ridge will strengthen over the Ohio Valley at the start of
the new work week. This will aid in capping the environment, which
will produce the best chance at mostly dry conditions Monday and
most of Tuesday. Tuesday will bring a return of scattered shower and
storm chances, but looks to be later in the day and mainly across
our northern forecast area, as a central CONUS trough approaches.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s, with
overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

As the central CONUS trough slowly progresses eastward, a more
active weather period will take place midweek. A surface low will
track through the Great Lakes, and the trailing cold front will push
into our CWA. Numerous showers and storms will be possible ahead of
the front from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With
increasing speed shear expected with the stronger trough aloft, some
stronger storms are possible. High temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, generally upper 70s to lower
80s with the additional cloud cover and rain.

Models are still having a difficult time deciding when that front
will push through the forecast area, but it appears to pass some
time during the day Thursday. This will keep scattered showers and
storms in the forecast for a little longer, but dry weather should
return Friday as the upper trough axis pushes east of the forecast
area. Temperatures should top out in the middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Upper low continues to bring extensive cloud cover and light rains
to our region. Those clouds this afternoon mainly have been VFR, but
with nightfall and a continued very moist airmass for mid May,
expect lower ceilings to develop. Cannot rule out continued showers,
but the threat for thunder still looks isolated enough to keep out
of the TAFs this go around. Latest high-res models show a push of
extra low-level moisture moving into KBWG late tonight, so have kept
in previous forecaster`s thinking of at least IFR cigs overnight. It
will take some time to lift those bases in the morning, and expect
additional showers to develop at the same time. Those chances should
fade with loss of heating Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Updates..........RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 172321
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
721 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN TO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH AND AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-75 THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF I-75...VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
POINT TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. IN FACT...STORMS OCCURRING
OVER THE TRI-CITIES OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF HIGHER SBCAPE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BIG SANDY REGION. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT HOLD
TOGETHER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FIRE UP THIS
EVENING AND THEN WANE AFTER SUNDOWN.

WENT AHEAD AND FINE TUNED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS. ALSO...TRENDED POPS HIGHER
FOR SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ON SATURDAY WITH STORM MOTIONS PROGGED TO
BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE ECWMF OVERALL...WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...USED A BLEND OF THE TWO TO
FORMULATE THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. OVERALL...THE MEXMOS POPS
DID LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PERIODS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. WENT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. BEFORE THAT...A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD KEEP
THE FRONT AT BAY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT OCCASIONALLY
MEANDERING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEXMOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 721 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A THREAT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF JKL TONIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FILLING BACK IN OVER THE
AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING HEAVY RAINERS. FOG WILL BE THE
OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT...BUT PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP
IT FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND DENSE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...ABE

000
FXUS63 KLMK 172316
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
716 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Pulled thunderstorm wording from the activity tonight. Not seeing
any lightning across our region this hour, and persistent cloud
cover has kept us from being able to generate anything more than
light rain showers. Areas to our north were able to warm up today,
and thus a nice band of storms developed across central IN/southwest
OH. Cannot rule out additional scattered activity through the night,
with the upper low moving right across us. Kept in patchy fog for
the night, given that more areas received rainfall today than
yesterday, albeit lighter totals.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Saturday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Combination of satellite imagery and observations reveal an area of
surface low pressure over eastern AR/western TN with the upper low
spinning slowly into far western Kentucky.  Out ahead of this
system, widespread cloud cover was noted over the region with a
large area of light to moderate rain across the southern half of
Kentucky.  Given the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, lapse
rates are rather poor resulting in little, if any, instability.
Therefore, not expecting much in the way of thunderstorm development
across the region this afternoon...though can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder or two.  We currently think the bulk of the thunderstorm
development will be just to our north along a line from near Cincy
to Indy and points northward.  Temperatures were being modulated by
the cloud cover and precipitation.  Readings ranged from the upper
60s to around 70 in the south with lower-middle 70s in the north.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect widespread cloudiness to
continue.  Band of widespread showers across southern Kentucky will
continue to slowly advect northward.  Temperatures will not change
all that much over the next few hours with lower-middle 70s in
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with upper 60s to around 70
in the south.

For tonight, the multi-model short term consensus is in pretty good
agreement with the upper low moving slowly across the middle Ohio
Valley.  Associated surface low pressure will likely move across
southern TN overnight with the bulk of convection occurring just
ahead of this low.  Shower activity across Kentucky and southern
Indiana will diminish after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating.  Isolated showers will probably continue overnight, but
widely isolated at best.  With plenty of low-level moisture around
and winds becoming light as the upper low passes overhead, expect
another round of patchy dense fog to develop overnight.  The fog
will be most dense in areas that received rainfall this afternoon.
In tonight`s case, the most widespread fog would probably be across
southern Kentucky.  Lows tonight will remain mild with readings in
the 60-65 degree range.

On Saturday, the upper low will continue to slowly pull on to the
east.  Combination of differential heating and a moist airmass will
likely result in scattered convection redeveloping during the late
morning and into the afternoon.  At this juncture, it is difficult
to delineate an area at more risk for convective development.  It
appears that convective coverage may be more favored over the east
which would be in closer proximity to the upper low feature.  Severe
weather does not look likely at this point given the expected
widespread cloud cover and generally poor low-mid level lapse
rates.  Any storm that does form will be capable of producing very
heavy rains...gusty winds and possibly some small hail.  High
temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 70s.

By Saturday night, the upper level low should continue to move on
off to the east.  We should see convection wane again with the loss
of heating.  Thus, will keep higher PoPs in the forecast for the
evening and then let things diminish overnight.  Patchy fog will be
a possibility again with lows in the 60-65 degree range.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

The upper low that moves over our forecast area Saturday should move
to the central Appalachians Sunday, with an upper level ridge axis
building in across western Kentucky. The upper low will still have
influence over eastern Kentucky, which includes portions of our
eastern CWA. Expect diurnally driven convection with afternoon
heating. High temperatures Sunday should range from the mid and
upper 70s in the eastern CWA to low and mid 80s in the west.

The upper ridge will strengthen over the Ohio Valley at the start of
the new work week. This will aid in capping the environment, which
will produce the best chance at mostly dry conditions Monday and
most of Tuesday. Tuesday will bring a return of scattered shower and
storm chances, but looks to be later in the day and mainly across
our northern forecast area, as a central CONUS trough approaches.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s, with
overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

As the central CONUS trough slowly progresses eastward, a more
active weather period will take place midweek. A surface low will
track through the Great Lakes, and the trailing cold front will push
into our CWA. Numerous showers and storms will be possible ahead of
the front from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With
increasing speed shear expected with the stronger trough aloft, some
stronger storms are possible. High temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, generally upper 70s to lower
80s with the additional cloud cover and rain.

Models are still having a difficult time deciding when that front
will push through the forecast area, but it appears to pass some
time during the day Thursday. This will keep scattered showers and
storms in the forecast for a little longer, but dry weather should
return Friday as the upper trough axis pushes east of the forecast
area. Temperatures should top out in the middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 715 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Upper low continues to bring extensive cloud cover and light rains
to our region. Those clouds this afternoon mainly have been VFR, but
with nightfall and a continued very moist airmass for mid May,
expect lower ceilings to develop. Cannot rule out continued showers,
but the threat for thunder still looks isolated enough to keep out
of the TAFs this go around. Latest high-res models show a push of
extra low-level moisture moving into KBWG late tonight, so have kept
in previous forecaster`s thinking of at least IFR cigs overnight. It
will take some time to lift those bases in the morning, and expect
additional showers to develop at the same time. Those chances should
fade with loss of heating Saturday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........RJS

000
FXUS63 KJKL 172246
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
646 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPPER LOW TO OUR WEST WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN TO THE MEAN FLOW AS IT
TRACKS ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTH AND AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-75 THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF I-75...VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING BUT HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS
POINT TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEE NO REASON TO ARGUE. IN FACT...STORMS OCCURRING
OVER THE TRI-CITIES OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE MAY HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY
CONTINUE TO TRAVEL NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF HIGHER SBCAPE EXTENDING
NORTHWARD INTO THE BIG SANDY REGION. EVEN IF THEY DO NOT HOLD
TOGETHER...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY FIRE UP THIS
EVENING AND THEN WANE AFTER SUNDOWN.

WENT AHEAD AND FINE TUNED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND NEAR TERM MODELS. ALSO...TRENDED POPS HIGHER
FOR SATURDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN ON SATURDAY WITH STORM MOTIONS PROGGED TO
BE LESS THAN 5 KNOTS AND PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE ECWMF OVERALL...WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...USED A BLEND OF THE TWO TO
FORMULATE THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. OVERALL...THE MEXMOS POPS
DID LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PERIODS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. WENT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. BEFORE THAT...A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD KEEP
THE FRONT AT BAY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT OCCASIONALLY
MEANDERING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEXMOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KPAH 172237
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
537 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION ONLY.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AS AN H5 LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RIPPLES OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THAT THEY SHOW A
NW-SE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/QPF. ORDINARILY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD IT
TENDS TO SQUASH/SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS WERE
CRANKING OUT PRECIP...DECIDED TO ADD IT.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...
PRECIP MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BEFORE ENDING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...IT WILL
ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE NEXT WEATHER
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST AT 00Z TUESDAY.  ECMWF IS FASTER BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  12Z GFS IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...SHOWING WIDESPREAD QPF WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 06Z GFS MATCHED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE 00Z
AND LATEST ECMWF RUN...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WENT WITH SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
OUR FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY POPS
EAST TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST BY WEDNESDAY.  THOUGH TIMING IS NOT TOO
CERTAIN...MODELS ARE AT LEAST IN AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF SLOWLY
TRUDGES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFTER THURSDAY...LATEST ECMWF HAS DEVIATED QUITE A BIT FROM ITS
PREVIOUS SOLUTION.  THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS
RUNS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST AND LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH KEEPS THE PAH FA ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF.  PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS FOR NOW...KEEPING THE AREA IN A DRY AND COOLER
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER DIURNAL.
THEREFORE GOT RID OF CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS COULD LEAD TO
FASTER AND MORE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT HAVE PREDOMINANT
RESTRICTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT ONLY MVFR FOR NOW. WILL MONITOR
CLOSELY FOR UPDATES ON VSBY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
AVIATION...KH

000
FXUS63 KLMK 172138
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
538 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 535 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Pulled thunderstorm wording from the activity tonight. Not seeing
any lightning across our region this hour, and persistent cloud
cover has kept us from being able to generate anything more than
light rain showers. Areas to our north were able to warm up today,
and thus a nice band of storms developed across central IN/southwest
OH. Cannot rule out additional scattered activity through the night,
with the upper low moving right across us. Kept in patchy fog for
the night, given that more areas received rainfall today than
yesterday, albeit lighter totals.

&&

.Short Term (Now - Saturday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Combination of satellite imagery and observations reveal an area of
surface low pressure over eastern AR/western TN with the upper low
spinning slowly into far western Kentucky.  Out ahead of this
system, widespread cloud cover was noted over the region with a
large area of light to moderate rain across the southern half of
Kentucky.  Given the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, lapse
rates are rather poor resulting in little, if any, instability.
Therefore, not expecting much in the way of thunderstorm development
across the region this afternoon...though can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder or two.  We currently think the bulk of the thunderstorm
development will be just to our north along a line from near Cincy
to Indy and points northward.  Temperatures were being modulated by
the cloud cover and precipitation.  Readings ranged from the upper
60s to around 70 in the south with lower-middle 70s in the north.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect widespread cloudiness to
continue.  Band of widespread showers across southern Kentucky will
continue to slowly advect northward.  Temperatures will not change
all that much over the next few hours with lower-middle 70s in
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with upper 60s to around 70
in the south.

For tonight, the multi-model short term consensus is in pretty good
agreement with the upper low moving slowly across the middle Ohio
Valley.  Associated surface low pressure will likely move across
southern TN overnight with the bulk of convection occurring just
ahead of this low.  Shower activity across Kentucky and southern
Indiana will diminish after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating.  Isolated showers will probably continue overnight, but
widely isolated at best.  With plenty of low-level moisture around
and winds becoming light as the upper low passes overhead, expect
another round of patchy dense fog to develop overnight.  The fog
will be most dense in areas that received rainfall this afternoon.
In tonight`s case, the most widespread fog would probably be across
southern Kentucky.  Lows tonight will remain mild with readings in
the 60-65 degree range.

On Saturday, the upper low will continue to slowly pull on to the
east.  Combination of differential heating and a moist airmass will
likely result in scattered convection redeveloping during the late
morning and into the afternoon.  At this juncture, it is difficult
to delineate an area at more risk for convective development.  It
appears that convective coverage may be more favored over the east
which would be in closer proximity to the upper low feature.  Severe
weather does not look likely at this point given the expected
widespread cloud cover and generally poor low-mid level lapse
rates.  Any storm that does form will be capable of producing very
heavy rains...gusty winds and possibly some small hail.  High
temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 70s.

By Saturday night, the upper level low should continue to move on
off to the east.  We should see convection wane again with the loss
of heating.  Thus, will keep higher PoPs in the forecast for the
evening and then let things diminish overnight.  Patchy fog will be
a possibility again with lows in the 60-65 degree range.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

The upper low that moves over our forecast area Saturday should move
to the central Appalachians Sunday, with an upper level ridge axis
building in across western Kentucky. The upper low will still have
influence over eastern Kentucky, which includes portions of our
eastern CWA. Expect diurnally driven convection with afternoon
heating. High temperatures Sunday should range from the mid and
upper 70s in the eastern CWA to low and mid 80s in the west.

The upper ridge will strengthen over the Ohio Valley at the start of
the new work week. This will aid in capping the environment, which
will produce the best chance at mostly dry conditions Monday and
most of Tuesday. Tuesday will bring a return of scattered shower and
storm chances, but looks to be later in the day and mainly across
our northern forecast area, as a central CONUS trough approaches.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s, with
overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

As the central CONUS trough slowly progresses eastward, a more
active weather period will take place midweek. A surface low will
track through the Great Lakes, and the trailing cold front will push
into our CWA. Numerous showers and storms will be possible ahead of
the front from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With
increasing speed shear expected with the stronger trough aloft, some
stronger storms are possible. High temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, generally upper 70s to lower
80s with the additional cloud cover and rain.

Models are still having a difficult time deciding when that front
will push through the forecast area, but it appears to pass some
time during the day Thursday. This will keep scattered showers and
storms in the forecast for a little longer, but dry weather should
return Friday as the upper trough axis pushes east of the forecast
area. Temperatures should top out in the middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Upper level low pressure is forecast to slowly translate eastward
across the forecast area during the upcoming TAF period.  This will
bring scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the
terminals this afternoon and into the evening hours.  This
afternoon, best chances of rain will be down at the KBWG terminal
where MVFR vsbys are expected as rain shield lifts out of
Tennessee.  At KSDF and KLEX, more isolated-scattered showers will
be possible as the afternoon wears on.  Several bans will translate
northward, so periods of rain showers will be possible at those
terminals.  VFR conditions should prevail mostly at
KSDF/KLEX...though a very temporary drop to MVFR is possible as the
rain bands move through.  Winds this afternoon will remain out of
the south at 5-10 knots.

Tonight, convection and shower activity will probably taper off due
to the loss of heating.  With the upper level low moving over head,
expect winds to slacken off.  With a rather moist profile in place
at the surface, probably will see clouds build down and fog
develop.  There is an increasing likelihood of IFR vsbys and cigs
down at KBWG overnight after 18/05Z.   Further north at KSDF and
KLEX, vsbys/cigs will probably drop down into the MVFR range after
18/05-06Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........RJS
Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........MJ

000
FXUS63 KPAH 172012
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
312 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AS AN H5 LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR CWA TONIGHT...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND RIPPLES OF ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW MAY PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THAT THEY SHOW A
NW-SE ORIENTED SFC TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS OUR CWA...AN H5 RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA...AND A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/QPF. ORDINARILY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD IT
TENDS TO SQUASH/SUPPRESS ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH
THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROUGH AND THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS WERE
CRANKING OUT PRECIP...DECIDED TO ADD IT.

WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...
PRECIP MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BEFORE ENDING.
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...IT WILL
ALLOW PRECIP CHANCES TO MAKE THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA AS THE NEXT WEATHER
APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST AT 00Z TUESDAY.  ECMWF IS FASTER BRINGING THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  12Z GFS IS
ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER...SHOWING WIDESPREAD QPF WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 06Z GFS MATCHED A LITTLE BETTER WITH THE 00Z
AND LATEST ECMWF RUN...SO WILL LEAN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION...AND WENT WITH SMALL POPS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
OUR FAR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY...WITH INCREASING POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR MOST OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LIKELY POPS
EAST TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST BY WEDNESDAY.  THOUGH TIMING IS NOT TOO
CERTAIN...MODELS ARE AT LEAST IN AGREEMENT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN
THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.  KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF SLOWLY
TRUDGES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

AFTER THURSDAY...LATEST ECMWF HAS DEVIATED QUITE A BIT FROM ITS
PREVIOUS SOLUTION.  THE 00Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS
RUNS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE 12Z ECMWF IS FARTHER EAST AND LESS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH KEEPS THE PAH FA ON THE EASTERN
SIDE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROF.  PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS AND
PREVIOUS ECMWF RUNS FOR NOW...KEEPING THE AREA IN A DRY AND COOLER
PATTERN FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

MVFR CIGS OVER KCGI AND KPAH ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD TO KEVV AND KOWB. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT...SO MVFR TO IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY...ALONG WITH AT LEAST MVFR VSBYS.  VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER SUNRISE...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO LOW
VFR.  WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 00Z...THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...JP
LONG TERM/AVIATION...RST

000
FXUS63 KLMK 171922
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.Short Term (Now - Saturday Night)...
Issued at 321 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Combination of satellite imagery and observations reveal an area of
surface low pressure over eastern AR/western TN with the upper low
spinning slowly into far western Kentucky.  Out ahead of this
system, widespread cloud cover was noted over the region with a
large area of light to moderate rain across the southern half of
Kentucky.  Given the widespread cloud cover and precipitation, lapse
rates are rather poor resulting in little, if any, instability.
Therefore, not expecting much in the way of thunderstorm development
across the region this afternoon...though can`t rule out a rumble of
thunder or two.  We currently think the bulk of the thunderstorm
development will be just to our north along a line from near Cincy
to Indy and points northward.  Temperatures were being modulated by
the cloud cover and precipitation.  Readings ranged from the upper
60s to around 70 in the south with lower-middle 70s in the north.

For the remainder of the afternoon, expect widespread cloudiness to
continue.  Band of widespread showers across southern Kentucky will
continue to slowly advect northward.  Temperatures will not change
all that much over the next few hours with lower-middle 70s in
southern Indiana and northern Kentucky with upper 60s to around 70
in the south.

For tonight, the multi-model short term consensus is in pretty good
agreement with the upper low moving slowly across the middle Ohio
Valley.  Associated surface low pressure will likely move across
southern TN overnight with the bulk of convection occurring just
ahead of this low.  Shower activity across Kentucky and southern
Indiana will diminish after sunset due to the loss of daytime
heating.  Isolated showers will probably continue overnight, but
widely isolated at best.  With plenty of low-level moisture around
and winds becoming light as the upper low passes overhead, expect
another round of patchy dense fog to develop overnight.  The fog
will be most dense in areas that received rainfall this afternoon.
In tonight`s case, the most widespread fog would probably be across
southern Kentucky.  Lows tonight will remain mild with readings in
the 60-65 degree range.

On Saturday, the upper low will continue to slowly pull on to the
east.  Combination of differential heating and a moist airmass will
likely result in scattered convection redeveloping during the late
morning and into the afternoon.  At this juncture, it is difficult
to delineate an area at more risk for convective development.  It
appears that convective coverage may be more favored over the east
which would be in closer proximity to the upper low feature.  Severe
weather does not look likely at this point given the expected
widespread cloud cover and generally poor low-mid level lapse
rates.  Any storm that does form will be capable of producing very
heavy rains...gusty winds and possibly some small hail.  High
temperatures will warm into the mid-upper 70s.

By Saturday night, the upper level low should continue to move on
off to the east.  We should see convection wane again with the loss
of heating.  Thus, will keep higher PoPs in the forecast for the
evening and then let things diminish overnight.  Patchy fog will be
a possibility again with lows in the 60-65 degree range.

.Long Term (Sunday - Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

The upper low that moves over our forecast area Saturday should move
to the central Appalachians Sunday, with an upper level ridge axis
building in across western Kentucky. The upper low will still have
influence over eastern Kentucky, which includes portions of our
eastern CWA. Expect diurnally driven convection with afternoon
heating. High temperatures Sunday should range from the mid and
upper 70s in the eastern CWA to low and mid 80s in the west.

The upper ridge will strengthen over the Ohio Valley at the start of
the new work week. This will aid in capping the environment, which
will produce the best chance at mostly dry conditions Monday and
most of Tuesday. Tuesday will bring a return of scattered shower and
storm chances, but looks to be later in the day and mainly across
our northern forecast area, as a central CONUS trough approaches.
High temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 80s, with
overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 60s.

As the central CONUS trough slowly progresses eastward, a more
active weather period will take place midweek. A surface low will
track through the Great Lakes, and the trailing cold front will push
into our CWA. Numerous showers and storms will be possible ahead of
the front from late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With
increasing speed shear expected with the stronger trough aloft, some
stronger storms are possible. High temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday will be a few degrees cooler, generally upper 70s to lower
80s with the additional cloud cover and rain.

Models are still having a difficult time deciding when that front
will push through the forecast area, but it appears to pass some
time during the day Thursday. This will keep scattered showers and
storms in the forecast for a little longer, but dry weather should
return Friday as the upper trough axis pushes east of the forecast
area. Temperatures should top out in the middle 70s Friday
afternoon.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Upper level low pressure is forecast to slowly translate eastward
across the forecast area during the upcoming TAF period.  This will
bring scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the
terminals this afternoon and into the evening hours.  This
afternoon, best chances of rain will be down at the KBWG terminal
where MVFR vsbys are expected as rain shield lifts out of
Tennessee.  At KSDF and KLEX, more isolated-scattered showers will
be possible as the afternoon wears on.  Several bans will translate
northward, so periods of rain showers will be possible at those
terminals.  VFR conditions should prevail mostly at
KSDF/KLEX...though a very temporary drop to MVFR is possible as the
rain bands move through.  Winds this afternoon will remain out of
the south at 5-10 knots.

Tonight, convection and shower activity will probably taper off due
to the loss of heating.  With the upper level low moving over head,
expect winds to slacken off.  With a rather moist profile in place
at the surface, probably will see clouds build down and fog
develop.  There is an increasing likelihood of IFR vsbys and cigs
down at KBWG overnight after 18/05Z.   Further north at KSDF and
KLEX, vsbys/cigs will probably drop down into the MVFR range after
18/05-06Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Short Term.......MJ
Long Term........MJP
Aviation.........MJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 171900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICATE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. THE GFS WAS A BIT MORE ACTIVE THAN THE ECWMF OVERALL...WITH
TIMING DIFFERENCES ALSO SHOWING UP BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID...USED A BLEND OF THE TWO TO
FORMULATE THE FORECAST THIS TIME AROUND. OVERALL...THE MEXMOS POPS
DID LOOK PRETTY GOOD FOR THE PERIODS THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE
INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. WENT PERHAPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
HIGHEST POPS IN THE MOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED.
THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WOULD APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME
FRAME. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE CULPRIT OF ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD...ONCE THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. BEFORE THAT...A STUBBORN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COULD KEEP
THE FRONT AT BAY TO THE NORTH...WITH THE FRONT OCCASIONALLY
MEANDERING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RUN
CLOSE TO THE MOS NUMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD...BUT DECIDED TO GO
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE MEXMOS DATA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KJKL 171819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICTE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN
AND SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE GIVEN
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE A THREAT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CULMINATE INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE JUST USED
A BLEND OF THE OUTCOMES...WHICH YIELDS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOLID CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE SLOW TO EXIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KJKL 171735 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH NE ACROSS THE AREA. CLOUD COVER TOO
EXTENSIVE FOR MUCH HEATING AND SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND.
STILL EXPECT FCST HIGHS TO BE CLOSE UT HEATING HAS LIMITED THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE RAIN. UPDATED GRIDS WITH CURRENT OBS AND
ZONES TO REDUCE CHANCE OF THUNDER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE SW. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND ZONES TO REMOVE
FOG AND MORNING WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. SINCE THE AIR OVER EASTERN
FAIRLY UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS IT DOES...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL PIN WHEEL
AROUND IT AND HELP TO SPAWN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MAIN LOW WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ONLY HAD TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN
AND SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE GIVEN
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE A THREAT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CULMINATE INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE JUST USED
A BLEND OF THE OUTCOMES...WHICH YIELDS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOLID CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE SLOW TO EXIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DUSTY

000
FXUS63 KLMK 171719
AFDLMK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Forecast Update...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Did a quick update to raise PoPs significantly down across southern
Kentucky.  Fairly steady batch of rain showers with some embedded
thunder is forecast to mainly affect southern Kentucky over the next
few hours.  Further north, extensive cloud cover will keep
instability on the low side and will probably preclude significant
convective development.  As moisture moves northward, expect periods
of rain showers to affect much of the forecast area through the
afternoon hours.  With all the clouds and precipitation, have
lowered afternoon temperatures slightly across the region.  Temps
likely to stay in the upper 60s to the lower 70s across southern
Kentucky and in the lower-mid 70s across central Kentucky and
southern Indiana.


Update issued at 940 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Well, a complicated forecast this morning.  Upper Low over the
KY/MO/TN border with vort lobes rotating around low.  Current radar
trends having scattered showers over SWRN CWA.  High Res short range
models (especially the ARW) showing this precip over SW advecting
north and east throughout the day.  Increased POPS over the SW to
likely throughout the day.  Another wave of precip over N MS and
will move more eastward and affect AL, while 3rd area of potential
pcpn should form along clearing axis south of QSTNRY front acrs
central IN and SWRN OH and push to the east away from CWA.

The patchy dense fog has lifted, and the current grid update
reflects new POPS and WX today.

With so much cloud cover over the central and northern area,
thinking is there will not be much precip until SWRN CWA precip
moves north until early this afternoon. Temps will be challenging
with lots of mid deck cloud cover. There are a few breaks in the
clouds so will leave temps alone for now.

&&

.Short Term (Today - Saturday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Early this morning an upper level low was slowly spinning eastward
into the mid Mississippi River Valley.  At the sfc, a frontal
boundary was stalled over northern IL/IN.  The Ohio Valley was
sitting in between these weather systems in a very moist environment
with subtle vort waves pushing eastward from the upper low kicking
off morning showers over southwest IN and east central KY.  Expect
this light activity to continue during the pre-dawn hours.  Also,
light fog has formed over portions over southern Indiana and
northern KY where it rained yesterday.  Expect light fog to continue
throughout the pre-dawn hours.  Think that increasing winds aloft
and a mixy atmosphere may prevent widespread dense fog.  However,
will continue to monitor.

Around and after sunrise, the better bands of showers over western
KY/TN will push northeast into our area and overspread the region.
T-storms will become more common over the area by mid morning and
last through the afternoon.  By late morning or early afternoon,
high-res models indicate that t-storms will erupt ahead of the main
line of convection pushing northeast through the morning hours.
This will likely happen in a moist convergence zone as it did
yesterday morning/early afternoon.  With the upper level low pushing
into the Ohio Valley this afternoon/evening, felt confident enough
to go with 60% POPs later in the day.  Storm strength for today
still looks marginal with the best storms containing small hail
and/or gusty winds up to around 40 mph.

Tonight the forecast gets a little tricky with some of the models
pushing the upper low farther to the south and east.  However, the
majority of models and ensembles indicate the upper low will linger
over the Ohio Valley providing bands of showers with embedded
t-storms throughout the night, therefore, will go with 40% POPs for
much of the night.

Saturday the upper low will slowly start to exit the area but still
provide plenty of convection over the area before it does so.
Soundings for Fri night/Sat indicate a very warm, moist environment
with PWATs reaching the 1.5-1.7 inch range.  Thus, would expect some
heavy rainers Fri night/Sat which may lead to some minor flooding
issues if t-storms and/or steady moderate rains train over the same
areas.

Temperatures should remain in the mid to upper 70s for highs today
and Saturday given the anticipated rains and cloud cover.  Lows
tonight will bottom out in the low to mid 60s.

.Long Term (Saturday Night - Thursday)...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Saturday Night - Sunday Evening...

The weak upper level low will continue to gradually move east to
around the I-75 corridor by early Sunday morning. This will keep
scattered convection going through the late evening and overnight
across eastern portions of the CWA, although with lower overall
coverage than during the daylight hours. West of the I-65 corridor,
expect just isolated coverage of showers or storms, likely becoming
compltetly dry in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday. Mostly cloudy skies
should rule across all but the far western CWA through the night,
and therefore will keep low temperatures in the low to mid 60s.

By Sunday, the upper low should move to the central Appalachian
spine with an upper level ridge axis building in across western
Kentucky. Upper low will still have influence over eastern portions
of the CWA and expect a diurnally driven uptick in convection during
the afternoon hours. Coverage east of I-65 should generally be
30-50%. Should see a bit of a warmup on Sunday across western
portions of the CWA where low to mid 80s will be possible. Will keep
temps in the upper 70s to the east closer to the upper low. Any
lingering isolated convection in the east may last until the late
evening on Sunday night.

Sunday Night - Tuesday...

The beginning of the new week looks to offer the best chance at
mostly dry conditions as the Ohio Valley will be under the influence
of an upper level ridge. This ridge will work to block upstream
flow, resulting in a closed upper low over the Dakotas and a
generally slower arrival of the next chance of significant
precipitation. Will continue to go dry for the early Monday morning
to Monday night time frame as an inversion associated with the upper
level ridging should limit convective potential. Models have
inconsistently depicted some convection firing along a weak warm
front on Monday afternoon, however placement has been erratic and
with the expected inversion in place will continue to leave forecast
dry. Will continue to monitor trends. Monday will continue the
warming trend with highs solidly in the mid 80s. Monday night should
be more mild with lows only in the upper 60s as southerly flow takes
hold.

Tuesday will bring a return to scattered shower and storm chances as
the central CONUS trough begins to make progress eastward. However,
the overall trend is slower making Tuesday an overall nicer forecast
than previous solutions. Best chances for mainly afternoon/evening
storms will be over the northwestern CWA closest to the cold front
associated with the system. Only expecting coverage in the 20-40%
range under the WAA regime. Highs on Tuesday should again be in the
mid 80s.

Tuesday Night - Thursday...

A more active period of weather looks to take place through mid week
as the associated central CONUS trough begins to open up and eject
to the eastern CONUS. It will drag the surface low through the Great
Lakes, and its associated cold front through the CWA sometime
Wednesday night. Expect numerous showers and storms ahead of this
front from late Tuesday night through at least Wednesday evening.
Have continued 60% chances during this time frame. May have to watch
for stronger storms as stronger westerlies combine with what is
expected to be a moderately unstable airmass. Highs Wednesday will
be in the upper 70s.

Models diverge in solutions by Thursday with how progressive the
frontal boundary is. At this point, prefer the less agressive
solution which keeps the slower front near the region, and scattered
showers and storms still possible.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Fri May 17 2013

Upper level low pressure is forecast to slowly translate eastward
across the forecast area during the upcoming TAF period.  This will
bring scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the
terminals this afternoon and into the evening hours.  This
afternoon, best chances of rain will be down at the KBWG terminal
where MVFR vsbys are expected as rain shield lifts out of
Tennessee.  At KSDF and KLEX, more isolated-scattered showers will
be possible as the afternoon wears on.  Several bans will translate
northward, so periods of rain showers will be possible at those
terminals.  VFR conditions should prevail mostly at
KSDF/KLEX...though a very temporary drop to MVFR is possible as the
rain bands move through.  Winds this afternoon will remain out of
the south at 5-10 knots.

Tonight, convection and shower activity will probably taper off due
to the loss of heating.  With the upper level low moving over head,
expect winds to slacken off.  With a rather moist profile in place
at the surface, probably will see clouds build down and fog
develop.  There is an increasing likelihood of IFR vsbys and cigs
down at KBWG overnight after 18/05Z.   Further north at KSDF and
KLEX, vsbys/cigs will probably drop down into the MVFR range after
18/05-06Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
$$


Update...........MJ
Short Term.......AMS
Long Term........BJS
Aviation.........MJ

000
FXUS63 KJKL 171718
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

FOG HAS BURNED OFF AND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING
FROM THE SW. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT OBS AND ZONES TO REMOVE
FOG AND MORNING WORDING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BEEN TAPERING OFF. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE. A BAND OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS
PINWHEELING AROUND THE LOW AND WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING. SINCE THE AIR OVER EASTERN
FAIRLY UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A
QUASI STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM. AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST. AS IT DOES...SPOKES OF ENERGY WILL PIN WHEEL
AROUND IT AND HELP TO SPAWN SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MAIN LOW WILL NOT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. ONLY HAD TO MAKE SOME SMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN
AND SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE GIVEN
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE A THREAT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CULMINATE INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE JUST USED
A BLEND OF THE OUTCOMES...WHICH YIELDS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOLID CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE SLOW TO EXIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DUSTY