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000
FXUS63 KPAH 221146 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Once early morning fog burns off, VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the forecast period. A slight stir of wind should
lower fog potential tonight as compared to the last several mornings.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP








000
FXUS63 KPAH 221146 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Once early morning fog burns off, VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the forecast period. A slight stir of wind should
lower fog potential tonight as compared to the last several mornings.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP








  [top]

000
FXUS63 KJKL 221145
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE SOME DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW STARTING TO LIFT A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES. HAVE UPDATED
TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
GOOD TO GO. HAVE SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME DISSIPATING
CLOUD COVER AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THIS
DISSIPATION...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WILL
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL TO ADDRESS THE LOW TEMPS IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL IMPACT THE AIR
MASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL IMPEDE CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY
BUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
RECENT RUNS LOOK TO HAVE HANDLED THIS SCENARIO BETTER. WILL GO WITH
AERIAL COVERAGE AGAIN BUT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTHWEST TO
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LOWER OH VALLEY WILL PUSH THROUGH. THIS MAY BE
SCENARIO MAY BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE ENERGY GOING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. NONETHELESS...WILL GO WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SET UP WITH CAPE
VALUES GETTING INTO THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND WHILE THE CAP STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRESENT...THE FORCING AVAILABLE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
IT. THIS AND SPC HAS ASSIGNED A 5% SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THOUGH WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE STEERING FLOW...MAY NEED TO
TAKE THE DURATION OVER AN AREA CONCERN. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE WEAK AS
WELL FOR THIS SET UP SO ANY SEVERE CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED FOR
COLLAPSING CELLS WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH NO SEVERE MENTION BUT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 70S LOOK TOP BE THE CASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THEY ALL DEPICT THE ABNORMAL PATTERN
OF A STRONG FOUR CORNERS REGION RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEXT WEEK...THEY DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE EVOLVING
EASTERN TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...FALLING HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE THE RULE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RETROGRADING LOW TO THE SOUTH PULLS AWAY AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO START THE WEEKEND
WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TEMPORARILY BEFORE THEY FALL AGAIN IN THE FACE
OF A NODE OF THE LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH GEARING UP FOR A DIVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 12 ECMWF KEEPS ITS CORE WAVE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST AND LAGS THE GFS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
CMC AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL PATTERN AS HEIGHTS FALL INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE ECMWF CATCHES UP...WITH THE DEEPER
AND MORE WESTERN TROUGH IDEA OF THE GFS BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. THE BETTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE EXTENDED SUPPORTS
A BLENDED SOLUTION WHILE THE LARGER SPREAD LATER ON LOWERS
CONFIDENCE SO THAT THE ENSEMBLES AND A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
ARE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SERVING AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY PUTTING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A BRIEF VISIT OF
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE DRIER
WEATHER WILL START TO SURGE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION AND BRING WARMTH...MOISTURE...AND BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AT MID
LEVELS...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...AND THE SFC FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS TO ADD A TINGE OF DIURNAL TO
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS A TAD TO REFLECT RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
CU WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING. THE MAIN BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE EAST WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE SO WILL GO WITH OUT
THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES. TONIGHT WILL SEE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FINALLY SETS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
TILL AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221145
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS HAVE SOME DENSE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW STARTING TO LIFT A BIT. LOW TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST PLACES. HAVE UPDATED
TO INPUT THE LATEST OBS INTO THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS
GOOD TO GO. HAVE SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND THE WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME DISSIPATING
CLOUD COVER AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THIS
DISSIPATION...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WILL
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL TO ADDRESS THE LOW TEMPS IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL IMPACT THE AIR
MASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL IMPEDE CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY
BUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
RECENT RUNS LOOK TO HAVE HANDLED THIS SCENARIO BETTER. WILL GO WITH
AERIAL COVERAGE AGAIN BUT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTHWEST TO
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LOWER OH VALLEY WILL PUSH THROUGH. THIS MAY BE
SCENARIO MAY BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE ENERGY GOING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. NONETHELESS...WILL GO WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SET UP WITH CAPE
VALUES GETTING INTO THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND WHILE THE CAP STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRESENT...THE FORCING AVAILABLE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
IT. THIS AND SPC HAS ASSIGNED A 5% SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THOUGH WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE STEERING FLOW...MAY NEED TO
TAKE THE DURATION OVER AN AREA CONCERN. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE WEAK AS
WELL FOR THIS SET UP SO ANY SEVERE CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED FOR
COLLAPSING CELLS WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH NO SEVERE MENTION BUT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 70S LOOK TOP BE THE CASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THEY ALL DEPICT THE ABNORMAL PATTERN
OF A STRONG FOUR CORNERS REGION RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEXT WEEK...THEY DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE EVOLVING
EASTERN TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...FALLING HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE THE RULE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RETROGRADING LOW TO THE SOUTH PULLS AWAY AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO START THE WEEKEND
WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TEMPORARILY BEFORE THEY FALL AGAIN IN THE FACE
OF A NODE OF THE LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH GEARING UP FOR A DIVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 12 ECMWF KEEPS ITS CORE WAVE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST AND LAGS THE GFS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
CMC AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL PATTERN AS HEIGHTS FALL INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE ECMWF CATCHES UP...WITH THE DEEPER
AND MORE WESTERN TROUGH IDEA OF THE GFS BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. THE BETTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE EXTENDED SUPPORTS
A BLENDED SOLUTION WHILE THE LARGER SPREAD LATER ON LOWERS
CONFIDENCE SO THAT THE ENSEMBLES AND A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
ARE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SERVING AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY PUTTING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A BRIEF VISIT OF
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE DRIER
WEATHER WILL START TO SURGE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION AND BRING WARMTH...MOISTURE...AND BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AT MID
LEVELS...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...AND THE SFC FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS TO ADD A TINGE OF DIURNAL TO
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS A TAD TO REFLECT RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
CU WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY TODAY WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING. THE MAIN BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE
TO THE EAST WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE SO WILL GO WITH OUT
THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES. TONIGHT WILL SEE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FINALLY SETS UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
ALL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD HOLD OFF
TILL AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KPAH 221145
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Once early morning fog burns off, VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the forecast period. A slight stir of wind should
lower fog potential tonight as compared to the last several mornings.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 221145
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 645 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Once early morning fog burns off, VFR conditions and light winds will
prevail through the forecast period. A slight stir of wind should
lower fog potential tonight as compared to the last several mornings.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RJP





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 221046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

After the potential for a very brief period of MVFR vsbys early this
morning in light fog, VFR condtions are expected through the period.
Winds will be rather light today out of the SSW with sct cu
developing this afternoon.  There remains a very small chance of a
stray shower/storm affecting KBWG or KLEX, but the chance remains so
small that it does not warrant any mention at this time.

A decaying line of storms will approach KSDF from the northwest
tonight, which may spread a mid/upper cloud deck into northern KY
towards dawn Wednesday.  Otherwise, winds tonight will continue to
be light out of the SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

After the potential for a very brief period of MVFR vsbys early this
morning in light fog, VFR condtions are expected through the period.
Winds will be rather light today out of the SSW with sct cu
developing this afternoon.  There remains a very small chance of a
stray shower/storm affecting KBWG or KLEX, but the chance remains so
small that it does not warrant any mention at this time.

A decaying line of storms will approach KSDF from the northwest
tonight, which may spread a mid/upper cloud deck into northern KY
towards dawn Wednesday.  Otherwise, winds tonight will continue to
be light out of the SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

After the potential for a very brief period of MVFR vsbys early this
morning in light fog, VFR condtions are expected through the period.
Winds will be rather light today out of the SSW with sct cu
developing this afternoon.  There remains a very small chance of a
stray shower/storm affecting KBWG or KLEX, but the chance remains so
small that it does not warrant any mention at this time.

A decaying line of storms will approach KSDF from the northwest
tonight, which may spread a mid/upper cloud deck into northern KY
towards dawn Wednesday.  Otherwise, winds tonight will continue to
be light out of the SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 644 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

After the potential for a very brief period of MVFR vsbys early this
morning in light fog, VFR condtions are expected through the period.
Winds will be rather light today out of the SSW with sct cu
developing this afternoon.  There remains a very small chance of a
stray shower/storm affecting KBWG or KLEX, but the chance remains so
small that it does not warrant any mention at this time.

A decaying line of storms will approach KSDF from the northwest
tonight, which may spread a mid/upper cloud deck into northern KY
towards dawn Wednesday.  Otherwise, winds tonight will continue to
be light out of the SSW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KPAH 220800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Still running the mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after
midnight at each TAF site. Kept the MIFG mention as well, to
account for denser patches of LIFR visibilities due to
microclimate influences...but will re-evaluate this at 06Z
issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate
through the forecast issuance period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN









000
FXUS63 KPAH 220800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
300 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Dry conditions will continue today as the region remains on the
eastern periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Central
and Southern Rockies. With plenty of sunshine and increasing low
level southerly flow, heat and humidity will make a return the
next few days. Highs will average in the lower 90s both today and
Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings will reach into the mid
and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again force a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out remains uncertain. Most models hint at a possible influence
from remnant overnight activity across northern portions of the
area during the morning, with the development of new activity
during the afternoon. However, with 700 mb temperatures around
10C, I remain skeptical of the ability of convective currents to
overcome the mid level capping inversion. It will probably occur
in spots - aided by lift from the approaching cold front. But
coverage may be rather hit and miss. As a result, we will keep
probabilities in the chance category on Wednesday.

After a lingering chance of thunderstorms over southern counties
Wednesday evening, much cooler and drier air will filter into the
region Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure builds south
from Canada. After morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s,
Thursday looks absolutely delightful with highs only in the lower
80s and plenty of sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Still running the mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after
midnight at each TAF site. Kept the MIFG mention as well, to
account for denser patches of LIFR visibilities due to
microclimate influences...but will re-evaluate this at 06Z
issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate
through the forecast issuance period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...CN








000
FXUS63 KJKL 220748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME DISSIPATING
CLOUD COVER AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THIS
DISSIPATION...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WILL
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL TO ADDRESS THE LOW TEMPS IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL IMPACT THE AIR
MASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL IMPEDE CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY
BUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
RECENT RUNS LOOK TO HAVE HANDLED THIS SCENARIO BETTER. WILL GO WITH
AERIAL COVERAGE AGAIN BUT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTHWEST TO
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LOWER OH VALLEY WILL PUSH THROUGH. THIS MAY BE
SCENARIO MAY BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE ENERGY GOING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. NONETHELESS...WILL GO WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SET UP WITH CAPE
VALUES GETTING INTO THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND WHILE THE CAP STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRESENT...THE FORCING AVAILABLE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
IT. THIS AND SPC HAS ASSIGNED A 5% SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THOUGH WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE STEERING FLOW...MAY NEED TO
TAKE THE DURATION OVER AN AREA CONCERN. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE WEAK AS
WELL FOR THIS SET UP SO ANY SEVERE CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED FOR
COLLAPSING CELLS WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH NO SEVERE MENTION BUT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 70S LOOK TOP BE THE CASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THEY ALL DEPICT THE ABNORMAL PATTERN
OF A STRONG FOUR CORNERS REGION RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEXT WEEK...THEY DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE EVOLVING
EASTERN TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...FALLING HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE THE RULE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RETROGRADING LOW TO THE SOUTH PULLS AWAY AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO START THE WEEKEND
WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TEMPORARILY BEFORE THEY FALL AGAIN IN THE FACE
OF A NODE OF THE LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH GEARING UP FOR A DIVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 12 ECMWF KEEPS ITS CORE WAVE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST AND LAGS THE GFS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
CMC AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL PATTERN AS HEIGHTS FALL INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE ECMWF CATCHES UP...WITH THE DEEPER
AND MORE WESTERN TROUGH IDEA OF THE GFS BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. THE BETTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE EXTENDED SUPPORTS
A BLENDED SOLUTION WHILE THE LARGER SPREAD LATER ON LOWERS
CONFIDENCE SO THAT THE ENSEMBLES AND A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
ARE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SERVING AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY PUTTING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A BRIEF VISIT OF
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE DRIER
WEATHER WILL START TO SURGE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION AND BRING WARMTH...MOISTURE...AND BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AT MID
LEVELS...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...AND THE SFC FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS TO ADD A TINGE OF DIURNAL TO
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS A TAD TO REFLECT RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA AND WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT.
LESS RAIN FELL OVER THE AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
GONE WITH MAINLY VFR AT SME AND JKL AND SOME IFR AT SJS AND MVFR AT
LOZ. HEADING INTO TODAY...UNEXPECTED MID LEVEL WARMING WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS HAVE DECIDED
TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE TAFS AND GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE...THOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF A
CELL MOVING OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURES SOME DISSIPATING
CLOUD COVER AS SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NUDGING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE HEIGHT CENTER OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THIS
DISSIPATION...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WILL
ADJUST TEMPERATURES A BIT AS WELL TO ADDRESS THE LOW TEMPS IN THE
MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. HEADING INTO THE DAY...THE MENTIONED RIDGE
AND WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL IMPACT THE AIR
MASS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL IMPEDE CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY
BUT MAINLY IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. MODELS HAVE UNDERESTIMATED
THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS NUDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY BUT
RECENT RUNS LOOK TO HAVE HANDLED THIS SCENARIO BETTER. WILL GO WITH
AERIAL COVERAGE AGAIN BUT WITH MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTHWEST TO
SCATTERED IN THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND LOWER OH VALLEY WILL PUSH THROUGH. THIS MAY BE
SCENARIO MAY BE ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE ENERGY GOING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH AND BECOMES CUT OFF FROM THE MID LEVEL RIDGES OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. NONETHELESS...WILL GO WITH NUMEROUS COVERAGE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE PRESENT WITH THIS SET UP WITH CAPE
VALUES GETTING INTO THE 2500 J/KG RANGE AND WHILE THE CAP STILL LOOKS
TO BE PRESENT...THE FORCING AVAILABLE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME
IT. THIS AND SPC HAS ASSIGNED A 5% SEVERE THREAT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. THOUGH WITH THE SLIGHT INCREASE STEERING FLOW...MAY NEED TO
TAKE THE DURATION OVER AN AREA CONCERN. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE WEAK AS
WELL FOR THIS SET UP SO ANY SEVERE CONCERN WOULD BE ISOLATED FOR
COLLAPSING CELLS WITH NO ORGANIZATION. WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH NO SEVERE MENTION BUT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND DEW POINTS CLIMBING INTO
THE LOW 70S LOOK TOP BE THE CASE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN ONLY FAIR AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THEY ALL DEPICT THE ABNORMAL PATTERN
OF A STRONG FOUR CORNERS REGION RIDGE AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EAST
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEXT WEEK...THEY DIFFER ON THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF THE EVOLVING
EASTERN TROUGH...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
SPECIFICALLY...FALLING HEIGHTS OVER KENTUCKY WILL BE THE RULE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RETROGRADING LOW TO THE SOUTH PULLS AWAY AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM SENDS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA IN
NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS EASTERN TROUGH PULLS AWAY TO START THE WEEKEND
WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TEMPORARILY BEFORE THEY FALL AGAIN IN THE FACE
OF A NODE OF THE LARGE NORTHEAST TROUGH GEARING UP FOR A DIVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE
WITH THIS EVOLUTION WHILE THE 12 ECMWF KEEPS ITS CORE WAVE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST AND LAGS THE GFS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST
CMC AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE GFS. REGARDLESS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL PATTERN AS HEIGHTS FALL INTO
MONDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY...THE ECMWF CATCHES UP...WITH THE DEEPER
AND MORE WESTERN TROUGH IDEA OF THE GFS BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE PATTERN OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEK. THE BETTER AGREEMENT EARLIER IN THE EXTENDED SUPPORTS
A BLENDED SOLUTION WHILE THE LARGER SPREAD LATER ON LOWERS
CONFIDENCE SO THAT THE ENSEMBLES AND A SLIGHT LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
ARE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SERVING AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THIS PART OF
THE STATE LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY PUTTING AN END TO THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DRY AND RELATIVELY COOL WEATHER
FOLLOWS INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND THANKS TO A BRIEF VISIT OF
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE DRIER
WEATHER WILL START TO SURGE NORTH OVER THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE
REGION AND BRING WARMTH...MOISTURE...AND BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES
BACK INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES AT MID
LEVELS...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...AND THE SFC FRONTAL STRUCTURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

THE CR GRID LOAD PROVIDED A DECENT START TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS TO ADD A TINGE OF DIURNAL TO
THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION. ALSO...TWEAKED THE LOW TEMPERATURE
GRIDS A TAD TO REFLECT RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA AND WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT.
LESS RAIN FELL OVER THE AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
GONE WITH MAINLY VFR AT SME AND JKL AND SOME IFR AT SJS AND MVFR AT
LOZ. HEADING INTO TODAY...UNEXPECTED MID LEVEL WARMING WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS HAVE DECIDED
TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE TAFS AND GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE...THOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF A
CELL MOVING OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220722
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
322 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday night)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an amplified ridge
across the western CONUS, with a trough across the northern Great
Lakes.  There is also a weak cutoff upper low across the Southeast.
The Great Lakes trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, driving a surface cold front southeast through
the region.

Temperatures and humidity will certainly be on the rise today as an
area of high pressure shifts east of the region.  This will allow
for light southerly flow to commence this afternoon.  Given a good
deal of sunshine (especially across north-central KY and southern
IN) and generally dry ground conditions, we should warm efficiently
this afternoon.  Really the only deterrent will be generally weak
turbulent mixing (winds in the ML around 5 knots).  Therefore, think
temperatures should warm into the 90s across most locations, with
some of the typically warmer areas possibly touching the mid 90s.
Heat indices will climb into the upper 90s to near 100 degrees at
times this afternoon.

The other story today will be convective chances across southern and
central KY.  There will be a weak deformation zone around 850-700mb
that will develop across southern and central KY this afternoon,
emanating out of the Southeast cutoff low.  In addition, low-level
moisture will be on the increase across south-central KY, which will
aid in afternoon instability.  However, am struggling to find any
surface triggers to help focus convection.  Therefore, think
coverage will remain quite sparse.  There will likely be a thin
southwest to northeast line of convection that develops along this
def zone with little additional coverage elsewhere.  Do not expect
any of these storms to be overly strong (most may actually be just
showers), with just some heavier rains, lightning and winds to
around 40mph being the main threats in any isolated storm.

Any lingering convection will dissipate by sunset.  Additional
convection will develop today across IL/WI along the approaching
cold front and drop southeast tonight into IN.  It appears that this
activity will likely weaken and dissipate before it gets to our
southern IN counties by daybreak Wednesday, thus will continue with
a dry forecast tonight.  Overnight lows will be in the lower 70s.

Guidance has trended quicker with this cold front slated to move
through on Wednesday.  Model consensus places the cold front near
the Ohio Valley by Wednesday afternoon.  Therefore, have focused the
best pop chances along and south of the Ohio River Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night.  Still am not impressed with any
organized severe potential with this system, as weak winds aloft
will yield deep-layer shear <25 knots and 0-3km shear will be <10
knots.  Steep low-level lapse rates coupled with 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE may yield a few stronger storms capable of some gusty winds
(perhaps a marginally severe storm), but agree with SPC in keeping
the region out of a Slight Risk.  Locally heavy rains will also be
possible given PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches.  Given the quicker
arrival of the front, have knocked highs down a degree or two which
puts them in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The front will push through the region Wednesday night, allowing for
drier air to filter into southern IN and northern KY.  Convection
will continue along the front across southern KY through the late
evening, but will likely decrease in coverage overnight.  Overnight
lows will be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Upper troffing looks to continue over the eastern United States
throughout the long term as the Rockies ridge remains to our west
and south.  Looking beyond this long term period the upper trof in
the east appears to get reinforced even further.  So, extreme heat
appears to not be in the cards for the rest of July.

At the surface, high pressure will build in behind the departing mid
week cold front.  Some lingering showers may still be found in the
Lake Cumberland region before we dry out completely in the
afternoon.  This high will be of Canadian origin and will bring
another spell of pleasant summer weather to the region. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be around the lower 80s with
lows Friday morning in the lower 60s and upper 50s.

Friday night weak low pressure will organize over the mid Missouri
Valley with a weak surface trof reaching east.  Models are hinting
at a possible MCS developing along and north of the trof. Mid level
flow suggests any MCS that develops would move primarily to the east
and would mostly stay to our north over Illinois and Indiana.  Will
include a small PoP in our southern Indiana and far north central
Kentucky counties that will be closest to the system late Friday
night.

The picture becomes murkier as we get into the weekend. Overall,
we`ll have northwest flow aloft with the aforementioned upper
troffing along with possible weak surface systems.  As a result,
we`ll continue with scattered PoPs in the forecast through the
weekend and into Monday.  Highs will be in the 80s and lows mostly
in the 60s, though Sunday morning we may have some difficulty
dropping below 70.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
129 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHERE SOME CLOUD
COVER LINGERS...TEMPS ARE DROPPING A BIT SLOWER DUE TO INSULATION AND
WHERE THEY ARE DROPPING A BIT FASTER SUCH AS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE THAT
AREA HAS CLEARED OUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY STILL POP UP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE. HAVE SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING FEATURE...AND WILL
HOLD ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ENSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND HAVE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA AND WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT.
LESS RAIN FELL OVER THE AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
GONE WITH MAINLY VFR AT SME AND JKL AND SOME IFR AT SJS AND MVFR AT
LOZ. HEADING INTO TODAY...UNEXPECTED MID LEVEL WARMING WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS HAVE DECIDED
TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE TAFS AND GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE...THOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF A
CELL MOVING OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
129 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

UPDATED FOR THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WHERE SOME CLOUD
COVER LINGERS...TEMPS ARE DROPPING A BIT SLOWER DUE TO INSULATION AND
WHERE THEY ARE DROPPING A BIT FASTER SUCH AS THE BLUEGRASS WHERE THAT
AREA HAS CLEARED OUT. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY STILL POP UP IN THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THERE. HAVE SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING FEATURE...AND WILL
HOLD ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ENSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND HAVE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WITH CLOUD COVER HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA AND WEAK SOUTHEAST
FLOW...FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME GREATER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS TONIGHT.
LESS RAIN FELL OVER THE AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AS WELL. HAVE
GONE WITH MAINLY VFR AT SME AND JKL AND SOME IFR AT SJS AND MVFR AT
LOZ. HEADING INTO TODAY...UNEXPECTED MID LEVEL WARMING WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS MORE ISOLATED ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THIS HAVE DECIDED
TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM THE TAFS AND GO WITH A LOW CONFIDENCE...THOUGH
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME STORMS THIS AFTERNOON BUT LITTLE CHANCE OF A
CELL MOVING OVER A TAF SITE. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH A WEAK SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 220452
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2014

Some scattered clouds around FL050 have recently developed across
portions of central KY.  These clouds will affect all terminals for
the next few hours, which will likely help to inhibit fog formation
to some extent.  Given decent low-level moisture in place and light
winds, still think that KLEX and KBWG may briefly drop into MVFR
vsbys toward sunrise, with the best chance at KLEX.

Otherwise, the remainder of the day will feature VFR flying
conditions at all terminals under partly cloudy skies and light
southwesterly winds.  A stray shower or storm is possible at KLEX or
KBWG, but coverage is expected to be too sparse to warrant any
mention at this time.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 220320 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING FEATURE...AND WILL
HOLD ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ENSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND HAVE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALLER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO
NIGHTFALL...WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SJS AFTER 04Z. LIFR OR WORSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THAT LOCATION...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FETCH. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF BY AROUND 13Z...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARRANTING VCTS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220320 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING FEATURE...AND WILL
HOLD ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ENSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND HAVE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALLER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO
NIGHTFALL...WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SJS AFTER 04Z. LIFR OR WORSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THAT LOCATION...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FETCH. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF BY AROUND 13Z...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARRANTING VCTS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220320 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING FEATURE...AND WILL
HOLD ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ENSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND HAVE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALLER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO
NIGHTFALL...WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SJS AFTER 04Z. LIFR OR WORSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THAT LOCATION...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FETCH. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF BY AROUND 13Z...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARRANTING VCTS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220320 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE HANGING ON IN THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING FEATURE...AND WILL
HOLD ONTO A FEW SHOWERS FOR ANOTHER HOUR...BEFORE DRY WEATHER ENSUES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
AND HAVE JUST FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALLER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO
NIGHTFALL...WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SJS AFTER 04Z. LIFR OR WORSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THAT LOCATION...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FETCH. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF BY AROUND 13Z...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARRANTING VCTS AT ALL SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220039 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
839 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALLER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO
NIGHTFALL...WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SJS AFTER 04Z. LIFR OR WORSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THAT LOCATION...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FETCH. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF BY AROUND 13Z...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARRANTING VCTS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220039 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
839 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS STILL DOTTING
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST TERRAIN. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. DID DIAL BACK THE POPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH SOONER GIVEN THE TREND OF DIMINISHING CU.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH 04Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. FOG
WILL BECOME A CONCERN OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALLER AMOUNT OF
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND HIGHER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS HEADING INTO
NIGHTFALL...WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
SJS AFTER 04Z. LIFR OR WORSE FOG STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
FOR THAT LOCATION...GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FETCH. ONCE THE FOG
BURNS OFF BY AROUND 13Z...SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WARRANTING VCTS AT ALL SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






000
FXUS63 KPAH 212332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The last vestiges of deep layer dry atmosphere from aloft to the
surface boundary layer continue to shrink from both the west and
east as the influence of the high pressure ridge continues to wane
with time. A minimum in precipitable water values (around an inch)
covers Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Purchase area
of West Kentucky this afternoon. With the most stable air over the
WFO PAH forecast area, sharp thermal and moisture gradients are
building up over Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West
Kentucky.

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), as well as the current
runs of the 3km HRRR, 13km RAP, and 12km NAM-WRF appear to depict
the transitional nature of the temperature and dewpoints across the
local area fairly well and were used as a template for any forecast
adjustments with this package.

The central U.S. middle to upper level tropospheric ridge weakens
only briefly tonight through early Tuesday before building back
across the area.  However, boundary layer southerly flow is becoming
established, increasing surface dewpoints over the area with time.

Added a mention of overnight to early morning fog to grids for
tonight, as wind, moisture, sky conditions will be conducive for
development.

The next shortwave riding down the northern limb of the ridge around
the eastern Canada closed low should alter lapse rates enough to
support at least scattered convection late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, prefer the slower timing of the SREF for
the onset of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. The
highest PoP`s were left over western Kentucky where deeper low level
moisture and instability will be well established by Wednesday.

Given the increase in temperatures and dewpoints, will add a mention
of afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range on
Tuesday and Wednesday, a marked difference from this past week and
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Much drier and cooler air will looks to filter into the region
from nw to se during the day Thursday, as a clod front conts
pushing south through the TN Valley. Another unusual cold frontal
passage for this time of year, but certainly will come welcomed.

Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry and unseasonably cool
as surface high pressure overspreads the area. However, precipitation
chances make their way back into the forecast by the start of the
weekend as low pressure forms over the Plains and lift a warm
front back north into the region. The presence of the boundary
and a series of ripples of energy in nw flow aloft will provide
the focus for occasional shower and thunderstorm development.
Timing of these impulses will be difficult at best this far out
in time tho...so will need to broad brush with chancy pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Still running the mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after
midnight at each TAF site. Kept the MIFG mention as well, to
account for denser patches of LIFR visibilities due to
microclimate influences...but will re-evaluate this at 06Z
issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate
through the forecast issuance period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 212332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The last vestiges of deep layer dry atmosphere from aloft to the
surface boundary layer continue to shrink from both the west and
east as the influence of the high pressure ridge continues to wane
with time. A minimum in precipitable water values (around an inch)
covers Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Purchase area
of West Kentucky this afternoon. With the most stable air over the
WFO PAH forecast area, sharp thermal and moisture gradients are
building up over Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West
Kentucky.

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), as well as the current
runs of the 3km HRRR, 13km RAP, and 12km NAM-WRF appear to depict
the transitional nature of the temperature and dewpoints across the
local area fairly well and were used as a template for any forecast
adjustments with this package.

The central U.S. middle to upper level tropospheric ridge weakens
only briefly tonight through early Tuesday before building back
across the area.  However, boundary layer southerly flow is becoming
established, increasing surface dewpoints over the area with time.

Added a mention of overnight to early morning fog to grids for
tonight, as wind, moisture, sky conditions will be conducive for
development.

The next shortwave riding down the northern limb of the ridge around
the eastern Canada closed low should alter lapse rates enough to
support at least scattered convection late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, prefer the slower timing of the SREF for
the onset of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. The
highest PoP`s were left over western Kentucky where deeper low level
moisture and instability will be well established by Wednesday.

Given the increase in temperatures and dewpoints, will add a mention
of afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range on
Tuesday and Wednesday, a marked difference from this past week and
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Much drier and cooler air will looks to filter into the region
from nw to se during the day Thursday, as a clod front conts
pushing south through the TN Valley. Another unusual cold frontal
passage for this time of year, but certainly will come welcomed.

Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry and unseasonably cool
as surface high pressure overspreads the area. However, precipitation
chances make their way back into the forecast by the start of the
weekend as low pressure forms over the Plains and lift a warm
front back north into the region. The presence of the boundary
and a series of ripples of energy in nw flow aloft will provide
the focus for occasional shower and thunderstorm development.
Timing of these impulses will be difficult at best this far out
in time tho...so will need to broad brush with chancy pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Still running the mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after
midnight at each TAF site. Kept the MIFG mention as well, to
account for denser patches of LIFR visibilities due to
microclimate influences...but will re-evaluate this at 06Z
issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate
through the forecast issuance period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 212332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The last vestiges of deep layer dry atmosphere from aloft to the
surface boundary layer continue to shrink from both the west and
east as the influence of the high pressure ridge continues to wane
with time. A minimum in precipitable water values (around an inch)
covers Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Purchase area
of West Kentucky this afternoon. With the most stable air over the
WFO PAH forecast area, sharp thermal and moisture gradients are
building up over Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West
Kentucky.

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), as well as the current
runs of the 3km HRRR, 13km RAP, and 12km NAM-WRF appear to depict
the transitional nature of the temperature and dewpoints across the
local area fairly well and were used as a template for any forecast
adjustments with this package.

The central U.S. middle to upper level tropospheric ridge weakens
only briefly tonight through early Tuesday before building back
across the area.  However, boundary layer southerly flow is becoming
established, increasing surface dewpoints over the area with time.

Added a mention of overnight to early morning fog to grids for
tonight, as wind, moisture, sky conditions will be conducive for
development.

The next shortwave riding down the northern limb of the ridge around
the eastern Canada closed low should alter lapse rates enough to
support at least scattered convection late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, prefer the slower timing of the SREF for
the onset of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. The
highest PoP`s were left over western Kentucky where deeper low level
moisture and instability will be well established by Wednesday.

Given the increase in temperatures and dewpoints, will add a mention
of afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range on
Tuesday and Wednesday, a marked difference from this past week and
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Much drier and cooler air will looks to filter into the region
from nw to se during the day Thursday, as a clod front conts
pushing south through the TN Valley. Another unusual cold frontal
passage for this time of year, but certainly will come welcomed.

Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry and unseasonably cool
as surface high pressure overspreads the area. However, precipitation
chances make their way back into the forecast by the start of the
weekend as low pressure forms over the Plains and lift a warm
front back north into the region. The presence of the boundary
and a series of ripples of energy in nw flow aloft will provide
the focus for occasional shower and thunderstorm development.
Timing of these impulses will be difficult at best this far out
in time tho...so will need to broad brush with chancy pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Still running the mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after
midnight at each TAF site. Kept the MIFG mention as well, to
account for denser patches of LIFR visibilities due to
microclimate influences...but will re-evaluate this at 06Z
issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate
through the forecast issuance period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KPAH 212332
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
632 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The last vestiges of deep layer dry atmosphere from aloft to the
surface boundary layer continue to shrink from both the west and
east as the influence of the high pressure ridge continues to wane
with time. A minimum in precipitable water values (around an inch)
covers Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Purchase area
of West Kentucky this afternoon. With the most stable air over the
WFO PAH forecast area, sharp thermal and moisture gradients are
building up over Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West
Kentucky.

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), as well as the current
runs of the 3km HRRR, 13km RAP, and 12km NAM-WRF appear to depict
the transitional nature of the temperature and dewpoints across the
local area fairly well and were used as a template for any forecast
adjustments with this package.

The central U.S. middle to upper level tropospheric ridge weakens
only briefly tonight through early Tuesday before building back
across the area.  However, boundary layer southerly flow is becoming
established, increasing surface dewpoints over the area with time.

Added a mention of overnight to early morning fog to grids for
tonight, as wind, moisture, sky conditions will be conducive for
development.

The next shortwave riding down the northern limb of the ridge around
the eastern Canada closed low should alter lapse rates enough to
support at least scattered convection late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, prefer the slower timing of the SREF for
the onset of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. The
highest PoP`s were left over western Kentucky where deeper low level
moisture and instability will be well established by Wednesday.

Given the increase in temperatures and dewpoints, will add a mention
of afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range on
Tuesday and Wednesday, a marked difference from this past week and
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Much drier and cooler air will looks to filter into the region
from nw to se during the day Thursday, as a clod front conts
pushing south through the TN Valley. Another unusual cold frontal
passage for this time of year, but certainly will come welcomed.

Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry and unseasonably cool
as surface high pressure overspreads the area. However, precipitation
chances make their way back into the forecast by the start of the
weekend as low pressure forms over the Plains and lift a warm
front back north into the region. The presence of the boundary
and a series of ripples of energy in nw flow aloft will provide
the focus for occasional shower and thunderstorm development.
Timing of these impulses will be difficult at best this far out
in time tho...so will need to broad brush with chancy pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Still running the mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after
midnight at each TAF site. Kept the MIFG mention as well, to
account for denser patches of LIFR visibilities due to
microclimate influences...but will re-evaluate this at 06Z
issuance. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate
through the forecast issuance period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KLMK 212303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dewpoint dropped enough at KBWG to reduce the MVFR conditions from
prevailing to tempo with this package. KLEX did not drop as much,
but latest high-res guidance is showing a layer of stratus
developing at 5-6 kft around midnight that would slow the
progression of any potential fog development. For now, have pushed
back the timing of MVFR conditions to 09Z there. Worse conditions
are possible should this cloud cover not develop. Outside of these
chances Tuesday morning, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 212303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dewpoint dropped enough at KBWG to reduce the MVFR conditions from
prevailing to tempo with this package. KLEX did not drop as much,
but latest high-res guidance is showing a layer of stratus
developing at 5-6 kft around midnight that would slow the
progression of any potential fog development. For now, have pushed
back the timing of MVFR conditions to 09Z there. Worse conditions
are possible should this cloud cover not develop. Outside of these
chances Tuesday morning, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 212303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dewpoint dropped enough at KBWG to reduce the MVFR conditions from
prevailing to tempo with this package. KLEX did not drop as much,
but latest high-res guidance is showing a layer of stratus
developing at 5-6 kft around midnight that would slow the
progression of any potential fog development. For now, have pushed
back the timing of MVFR conditions to 09Z there. Worse conditions
are possible should this cloud cover not develop. Outside of these
chances Tuesday morning, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 212303
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
703 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 700 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Dewpoint dropped enough at KBWG to reduce the MVFR conditions from
prevailing to tempo with this package. KLEX did not drop as much,
but latest high-res guidance is showing a layer of stratus
developing at 5-6 kft around midnight that would slow the
progression of any potential fog development. For now, have pushed
back the timing of MVFR conditions to 09Z there. Worse conditions
are possible should this cloud cover not develop. Outside of these
chances Tuesday morning, expect VFR conditions.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 212036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY MAY BE RATHER MEAGER AS MID
LEVEL WARM AIR SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION COULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY ISOALTED COVERAGE EXPECTED AT BEST...WE DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER OR ANY PRECIP AT THE TAF TIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL
BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
THROUGH 6Z. IFR OR POSSIBLY VIS BELOW AIRPORT MINS IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 212036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION...WITH THE RIDGING EXTENDING TOWARD THE MID MS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION. ANOTHER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WAS DEPARTING
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE WORKING ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS
ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION. A WARM
AND RATHER MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION...HOWEVER...MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IS LIMITING COVERAGE THUS FAR.

THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER TO
THE MS DELTA REGION. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO PARTS OF CANADA WHILE A TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE TOWARD THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO EASTERN CANADA. AS THIS OCCURS...
A SFC LOW WILL TRACK FROM THE DAKOTAS TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODELS STILL INDICATE AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA COULD DEVELOP THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT CU FIELD IS
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND COVERAGE MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN THAT.
POPS WERE LOWERED FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING COMPARED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND JUST
ISOLATED OVER THE REGION OF THE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATING
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LOW COULD LEAD TO THE THREAT OF CONVECTION
FOR A LITTLE WHILE AFTER 0Z NEAR THE VA BORDER. OTHERWISE...OVERNIGHT...
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY ALONG WITH THE MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS EXPECTED...FOG
SHOULD AGAIN FORM. THE FOG MAY AGAIN BECOME DENSE IN THE RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND EAST INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE SOUTHERN OR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. UPPER LOW.
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE CONSIDERABLE CU FORMATION ON TUE...BUT SOME MID
LEVEL WARM AIR MAY LINGER...AND AGAIN LIMIT CONVECTION. THE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OR PERHAPS ON THE OUT EDGE OF SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY ROTATE AROUND THE
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR HIGHER
CHANCES AND BETTER COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. WINDS SHOULD AGAIN BE RATHER LIGHT ON TUE NIGHT AND WITH
A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PATCHY POSSIBLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KY MAY BE RATHER MEAGER AS MID
LEVEL WARM AIR SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD. CONVECTION COULD AGAIN DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WITH ONLY ISOALTED COVERAGE EXPECTED AT BEST...WE DID NOT INCLUDE
THUNDER OR ANY PRECIP AT THE TAF TIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL
BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY ANY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL
THROUGH 6Z. IFR OR POSSIBLY VIS BELOW AIRPORT MINS IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 6Z AND 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 212007
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The last vestiges of deep layer dry atmosphere from aloft to the
surface boundary layer continue to shrink from both the west and
east as the influence of the high pressure ridge continues to wane
with time. A minimum in precipitable water values (around an inch)
covers Southeast Missouri, Southern Illinois, and the Purchase area
of West Kentucky this afternoon. With the most stable air over the
WFO PAH forecast area, sharp thermal and moisture gradients are
building up over Southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of West
Kentucky.

The Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), as well as the current
runs of the 3km HRRR, 13km RAP, and 12km NAM-WRF appear to depict
the transitional nature of the temperature and dewpoints across the
local area fairly well and were used as a template for any forecast
adjustments with this package.

The central U.S. middle to upper level tropospheric ridge weakens
only briefly tonight through early Tuesday before building back
across the area.  However, boundary layer southerly flow is becoming
established, increasing surface dewpoints over the area with time.

Added a mention of overnight to early morning fog to grids for
tonight, as wind, moisture, sky conditions will be conducive for
development.

The next shortwave riding down the northern limb of the ridge around
the eastern Canada closed low should alter lapse rates enough to
support at least scattered convection late Tuesday night into
Wednesday. At this time, prefer the slower timing of the SREF for
the onset of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the shortwave. The
highest PoP`s were left over western Kentucky where deeper low level
moisture and instability will be well established by Wednesday.

Given the increase in temperatures and dewpoints, will add a mention
of afternoon heat index values in the 95 to 100 degree range on
Tuesday and Wednesday, a marked difference from this past week and
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Much drier and cooler air will looks to filter into the region
from nw to se during the day Thursday, as a clod front conts
pushing south through the TN Valley. Another unusual cold frontal
passage for this time of year, but certainly will come welcomed.

Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry and unseasonably cool
as surface high pressure overspreads the area. However, precipitation
chances make their way back into the forecast by the start of the
weekend as low pressure forms over the Plains and lift a warm
front back north into the region. The presence of the boundary
and a series of ripples of energy in nw flow aloft will provide
the focus for occasional shower and thunderstorm development.
Timing of these impulses will be difficult at best this far out
in time tho...so will need to broad brush with chancy pops for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The moisture and wind gradient associated with the narrow ridge
axis oriented northeast to southwest across the area is allowing
the intrusion and development of diurnally-based 3-5kft
few/scattered/locally broken cloud bases/ceilings along the Ohio
and Wabash River valleys and Southeast Missouri.

Kept a mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after midnight at
each TAF site. Introduced MIFG to account for denser patches of
LIFR visibilities due to microclimate influences.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate through the
forecast issuance period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KJKL 211935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS FORM ILN...OHX...AND RNK ALL HAVE A RATHER
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEAR 600 MB. 12Z NAM AND ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AND MOIST THAT PARCELS AND THUS
CU MIGHT BE ABLE TO RISE PAST THIS WARM AIR FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO POINTS MORE TOWARDS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY JUST MIX
OUT BY EVENING.

THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. RECENT HRRR RUN AND RECENT RAP RUNS ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER ON. THE 9Z SREF HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE CURRENT WARM
MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
END UP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OR POSSIBLY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE
TN AND VA BORDER COUNTIES FROM WHITLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST TO PIKE.
ATTM...WE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS AND CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TRENDS WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 211935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS FORM ILN...OHX...AND RNK ALL HAVE A RATHER
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEAR 600 MB. 12Z NAM AND ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AND MOIST THAT PARCELS AND THUS
CU MIGHT BE ABLE TO RISE PAST THIS WARM AIR FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO POINTS MORE TOWARDS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY JUST MIX
OUT BY EVENING.

THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. RECENT HRRR RUN AND RECENT RAP RUNS ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER ON. THE 9Z SREF HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE CURRENT WARM
MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
END UP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OR POSSIBLY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE
TN AND VA BORDER COUNTIES FROM WHITLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST TO PIKE.
ATTM...WE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS AND CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TRENDS WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE MID TERM WILL FOCUS AROUND A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS FLOWING SOUTHERLY UP UNTIL THIS POINT
WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO A MORE WRLY DIRECTION JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WELL AS THE INCOMING LIFTING SOURCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH CAPES WELL ABOVE
2000 J/KG AFTER 12Z...AND GOOD MID LEVEL DRY AIR...COULD BE A GOOD
SCENARIO FOR SOME DECENT CONVECTION. MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ABOUT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SOME DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION POPPING
UP ACROSS EASTERN KY AFTER 12Z AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY TRAVERSES KY...EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. LOSS OF MID LEVEL
DRY AIR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL CUT DOWN ON SOME OF THE BEST
CONVECTION AND HAIL POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT IT TO RETURN AGAIN BY
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXIT TO OUR SE. THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE
CONVECTION MAY LINGER IN THE FAR SE...OVERALL DRIER AIR SHOULD
FILTER IN AND CUT OFF ANY REMAINING PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY.

TEMPS WEDNESDAY LEADING INTO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE WARM
AND HUMID...WITH HIGHS TIPPING 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. BY THURSDAY HOWEVER...COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN
THANKS TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH...WITH HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 80.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SW
CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS
IN OUR WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH WILL WORK TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED BY LATE THE PERIOD...EXPECT SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TO RIDE
ALONG THE TROUGH AND BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN KY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. CHANCES SHOULD THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK
INTO THE MID 80S WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES BY THE WEEKEND...THEN
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES THE PRECIP
CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211927 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 211927 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.  Also some patchy fog will be possible
tonight.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 211916
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
316 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Upper level ridging will continue to build in from the west through
Tues.  This will result in hot, humid conditions over the area.
High pressure at the sfc will keep the hot, humid airmass relatively
stagnant and unhealthy for sensitive groups on Tues.  Thus an Air
Quality Alert has been issued for the Louisville Metro area for Tues.

Temperatures will warm slightly for tomorrow with afternoon highs
expected to reach the 88-94 degree range.  Although the airmass will
be warmer than today, we won`t see strong southerly sfc flow and the
hottest temps in the ridge axis are expected to remain to our west
so will stray away from mid 90s for highs.  Low temperatures look to
be in the upper 60s and lower 70s tonight and then solidly in the
lower 70s for Tues night.

There is a 20-30% chance for some afternoon/evening convection on
Tues mainly south of a line from Bowling Green to Lexington. Capping
will be weaker in this location and energy from an upper low over
the Gulf states may spur convection as far north as the KY/TN
border.  Any storms that do form are not expected to be organized or
severe.  The best storms may contain wind gusts up to 40 mph and
briefly heavy rainfall.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The start of the long term will feature a strong ridge across the
western CONUS with a trough across the east. This pattern will
continue through the long term, though the trough across the east
will begin to deepen towards the end of the period while the axis of
the western ridge shifts westward.

Precipitation chances will be on the increase Wednesday. For the
daytime there will be two features that will bring precipitation to
central KY and southern IN. The first is a weak wave that will move
across south and east central KY. This will spark showers and
thunderstorms during the morning hours across southern and eastern
portions of the forecast area. At the surface a cold front will
approach and move through the area Wednesday into Thursday night.
Storms will develop along and ahead of this front. These will move
in to southern IN during the late morning into the afternoon and
spread across central KY from the afternoon into the evening. A weak
low will ride northeast along the front from the evening into the
overnight hours. This will help enhance shower and thunderstorm
coverage. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be
plenty of instability but shear will be weak with this system, so
organized severe weather is not expected. Heavy rain with some
ponding of water will be possible as PWATS rise to 1.8-1.9 inches.

Precipitation chances will decrease from west to east on Thursday as
the front continues southeast. Dry and less humid conditions are
expected Thursday night through Friday night in the wake of the
front.

The next chance for showers and storms will begin Saturday as
another front moves into the area. Rain chances will continue into
Sunday as disturbances round the base of the deepening upper level
trough. Beyond the long term it continues to look like we will see
another significant cooldown midweek next week with highs
potentially in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211728
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
128 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording.  Fog is quickly
dissipating over the Bluegrass region late this morning.  Expect
mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temps soaring into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The main TAF challenge with be reduced vsbys in light fog tonight at
BWG and LEX.  According to the latest MOS guidance and model
soundings, enough low level moisture should still exist for fog
formation under light winds and a weak inversion.  Went with MVFR
vsbys at both sites for this TAF forecast, but think that LEX vsby
may go down to IFR especially after having dense fog there this
morning.  Some guidance suggests this as well while other guidance
remains more optimistic, therefore, will keep forecasted vsby in the
low end MVFR cat for now.  Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will remain easterly this afternoon and then southerly for
tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 211725
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Dry conditions will continue through early week as an upper level
ridge centered over the Central and Southern Rockies builds east
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak upper level low/trough
that has lingered over eastern portions of the area will be
shunted into the southern U.S. during this time. As a result,
expect more sunshine and less cloud cover through Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures will also result. Expect upper 80s today, then lower
90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings tomorrow
and Wednesday will reach into the mid and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again bring a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out is uncertain at this point. Most models hint at a possible
influence from remnant overnight activity across northern portions
of the area during the morning. Then by afternoon, I am not
entirely confident the mid level cap will be eroded as models
currently suggest. As a result, we will keep probabilities in the
chance category on Wednesday for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The upper level ridge responsible for dry, hot, and humid conditions
in the short term portion of the forecast will have begun to
retrograde back to the west at the beginning of the long term
period. As a result, this puts our region back in northwest flow
aloft which typically delivers cooler and less humid conditions with
an occasional frontal passage, which is not a common occurrence in
the latter half of July in the mid latitudes, but certainly a
welcomed one.

Anyway, the long term period begins with the passage of the first of
multiple frontal boundaries that will impact the region`s weather
during the period. With the passage of the first boundary, with
decent upper support and moisture, precipitation chances will be
very good Wednesday night, especially over the southeast half of our
CWA. Precipitation chances will taper off from the northwest on
Thursday in the wake of the front.

At this time Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry as surface
high pressure overspreads the area. Precipitation chances make their
way back into the forecast starting Friday night as the
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front
across our area in response to a developing weather system over the
central plains. The presence of the boundary and a series of ripples
of energy in the upper flow will provide the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the end of the
period as the frontal boundary associated with the developing system
along with upper support and decent moisture approaches and
ultimately crosses our area on Sunday. Even with two cold frontal
passages in the long term, the latest SPC day 4-8 outlook shows no
threat for severe storms at this time.

Beyond Thursday temperatures and dewpoints moderate back to near
normal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The moisture and wind gradient associated with the narrow ridge
axis oriented northeast to southwest across the area is allowing
the intrusion and development of diurnally-based 3-5kft
few/scattered/locally broken cloud bases/ceilings along the Ohio
and Wabash River valleys and Southeast Missouri.

Kept a mention of VFR/upper MVFR visibilities after midnight at
each TAF site. Introduced MIFG to account for denser patches of
LIFR visibilities due to microclimate influences.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue to dominate through the
forecast issuance period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211454
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording.  Fog is quickly
dissipating over the Bluegrass region late this morning.  Expect
mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temps soaring into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS/AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 211454
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1054 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1055 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Updated the forecast to remove morning fog wording.  Fog is quickly
dissipating over the Bluegrass region late this morning.  Expect
mostly sunny skies this afternoon with high temps soaring into the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......KJD
Aviation.......RAS/AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 211439 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1039 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS FORM ILN...OHX...AND RNK ALL HAVE A RATHER
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEAR 600 MB. 12Z NAM AND ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AND MOIST THAT PARCELS AND THUS
CU MIGHT BE ABLE TO RISE PAST THIS WARM AIR FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO POINTS MORE TOWARDS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY JUST MIX
OUT BY EVENING.

THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. RECENT HRRR RUN AND RECENT RAP RUNS ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER ON. THE 9Z SREF HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE CURRENT WARM
MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
END UP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OR POSSIBLY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE
TN AND VA BORDER COUNTIES FROM WHITLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST TO PIKE.
ATTM...WE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS AND CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TRENDS WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 211439 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1039 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATION...SATELLITE
AND RADAR TRENDS. 12Z RAOBS FORM ILN...OHX...AND RNK ALL HAVE A RATHER
WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS NEAR 600 MB. 12Z NAM AND ITS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY WARM AND MOIST THAT PARCELS AND THUS
CU MIGHT BE ABLE TO RISE PAST THIS WARM AIR FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO POINTS MORE TOWARDS A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF CU DEVELOPING 15Z TO 19Z...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY JUST MIX
OUT BY EVENING.

THE 12Z NAM HAS THE ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN. RECENT HRRR RUN AND RECENT RAP RUNS ALSO HAVE VERY
LIMITED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LATER ON. THE 9Z SREF HAS THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. WITH THE CURRENT WARM
MID LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO LARGELY PERSIST...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MAY
END UP LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST OR POSSIBLY NIL OUTSIDE OF THE
TN AND VA BORDER COUNTIES FROM WHITLEY EAST AND NORTHEAST TO PIKE.
ATTM...WE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE FOR AFTERNOON POPS AND CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

OVERALL...TODAY WILL CONTINUE THE WARMING TRENDS WITH RATHER HUMID
CONDITIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KPAH 211131
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Dry conditions will continue through early week as an upper level
ridge centered over the Central and Southern Rockies builds east
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak upper level low/trough
that has lingered over eastern portions of the area will be
shunted into the southern U.S. during this time. As a result,
expect more sunshine and less cloud cover through Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures will also result. Expect upper 80s today, then lower
90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings tomorrow
and Wednesday will reach into the mid and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again bring a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out is uncertain at this point. Most models hint at a possible
influence from remnant overnight activity across northern portions
of the area during the morning. Then by afternoon, I am not
entirely confident the mid level cap will be eroded as models
currently suggest. As a result, we will keep probabilities in the
chance category on Wednesday for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The upper level ridge responsible for dry, hot, and humid conditions
in the short term portion of the forecast will have begun to
retrograde back to the west at the beginning of the long term
period. As a result, this puts our region back in northwest flow
aloft which typically delivers cooler and less humid conditions with
an occasional frontal passage, which is not a common occurrence in
the latter half of July in the mid latitudes, but certainly a
welcomed one.

Anyway, the long term period begins with the passage of the first of
multiple frontal boundaries that will impact the region`s weather
during the period. With the passage of the first boundary, with
decent upper support and moisture, precipitation chances will be
very good Wednesday night, especially over the southeast half of our
CWA. Precipitation chances will taper off from the northwest on
Thursday in the wake of the front.

At this time Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry as surface
high pressure overspreads the area. Precipitation chances make their
way back into the forecast starting Friday night as the
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front
across our area in response to a developing weather system over the
central plains. The presence of the boundary and a series of ripples
of energy in the upper flow will provide the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the end of the
period as the frontal boundary associated with the developing system
along with upper support and decent moisture approaches and
ultimately crosses our area on Sunday. Even with two cold frontal
passages in the long term, the latest SPC day 4-8 outlook shows no
threat for severe storms at this time.

Beyond Thursday temperatures and dewpoints moderate back to near
normal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Once patchy fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period. High pressure will keep light
and variable winds in place.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 211131
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Dry conditions will continue through early week as an upper level
ridge centered over the Central and Southern Rockies builds east
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak upper level low/trough
that has lingered over eastern portions of the area will be
shunted into the southern U.S. during this time. As a result,
expect more sunshine and less cloud cover through Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures will also result. Expect upper 80s today, then lower
90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings tomorrow
and Wednesday will reach into the mid and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again bring a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out is uncertain at this point. Most models hint at a possible
influence from remnant overnight activity across northern portions
of the area during the morning. Then by afternoon, I am not
entirely confident the mid level cap will be eroded as models
currently suggest. As a result, we will keep probabilities in the
chance category on Wednesday for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The upper level ridge responsible for dry, hot, and humid conditions
in the short term portion of the forecast will have begun to
retrograde back to the west at the beginning of the long term
period. As a result, this puts our region back in northwest flow
aloft which typically delivers cooler and less humid conditions with
an occasional frontal passage, which is not a common occurrence in
the latter half of July in the mid latitudes, but certainly a
welcomed one.

Anyway, the long term period begins with the passage of the first of
multiple frontal boundaries that will impact the region`s weather
during the period. With the passage of the first boundary, with
decent upper support and moisture, precipitation chances will be
very good Wednesday night, especially over the southeast half of our
CWA. Precipitation chances will taper off from the northwest on
Thursday in the wake of the front.

At this time Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry as surface
high pressure overspreads the area. Precipitation chances make their
way back into the forecast starting Friday night as the
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front
across our area in response to a developing weather system over the
central plains. The presence of the boundary and a series of ripples
of energy in the upper flow will provide the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the end of the
period as the frontal boundary associated with the developing system
along with upper support and decent moisture approaches and
ultimately crosses our area on Sunday. Even with two cold frontal
passages in the long term, the latest SPC day 4-8 outlook shows no
threat for severe storms at this time.

Beyond Thursday temperatures and dewpoints moderate back to near
normal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 630 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Once patchy fog burns off early this morning, VFR conditions will
prevail through the forecast period. High pressure will keep light
and variable winds in place.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 211118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS/AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 211118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
718 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 715 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge in this forecast cycle is how quickly fog will
dissipate this morning, especially at LEX where we are starting off
socked in below all field mins. Area webcams show that the fog bank
is not very deep, so expect it to burn off fairly quickly as the sun
rises, most likely a bit faster than advertised by GFS LAMP. Brief
MVFR vis at BWG and SDF will continue for the next hour or so.

Once the morning fog is gone expect VFR conditions and diurnal cu
until we do it all over again in the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday.
Expect any fog formation to occur a bit later without the immediate
influence of precip and taking a few hrs longer to cross over
afternoon dewpoints. At this time will just include a TEMPO for MVFR
vis at BWG and LEX just before daybreak Tue.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS/AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 211042
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211042
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211042
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 211042
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
642 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE AREA HAS DISSIPATED THIS MORNING SO HAVE
TAKEN THEM OUT AND ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. DENSE FOG
STILL APPEARS TO BE LINGERING IN SOME SPOTS SO WILL LEAVE IT IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. HAVE LOADED THE LATEST OBS
AND UPDATED THE ZFP TO TAKE OUT SPRINKLES AND UPDATE THIS MORNINGS
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FOR THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60 DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN NOW...WITH THIS
JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER
THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

EXPECT THE LINGERING FOG TO LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE IN QUESTION AND SHOWING
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT THE TAF SITES IS NOT
POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE TAFS BUT MENTION THE
PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. FOG WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL BE DENSE IN SOME
AREAS...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO PUT
BELOW IFR VISIBILITY VALUES IN THE TAFS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER








000
FXUS63 KJKL 210828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN
NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN
NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN
NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210828
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN
NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. ON TUESDAY EVENING SE KY
WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SE CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH. FEATURES WILL BE WEAK...AND ANY
CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHOULD BE POORLY ORGANIZED SHOULD SHOW A STRONG
DIURNAL TREND. HAVE CARRIED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR ANY PRECIP WHICH
MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING IN OUR SE COUNTIES.

ON WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NE
CONUS WILL SEND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SE INTO KY. THE FRONT WILL
SLOWLY TRANSITION ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...EMERGING OVER VA AND THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED ENHANCEMENT OF POPS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OVER THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BEFORE DRIER
AIR FINALLY MAKES IT WAY IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.

BY SUNDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AGAIN CARRY A MORE HUMID AIR MASS
BACK INTO THE REGION. AT THE SAME TIME...WHAT WILL BECOME A
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN
NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210743
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
343 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A VERY WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOKS TO BE THE
SCENARIO FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 07Z
FEATURE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS. THIS IS MAINLY
WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. WHERE THIS HAS OCCURRED...MAY NEED
SOME HEADLINE ISSUED FRO THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. CLOUD COVER
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY PERSISTENT INTO THE MORNING OVER THE EAST. LOWS
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING ALONG WITH MID 60
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE MORNING. EVEN
NOW...WITH THIS JUICY AIR MASS...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE STILL
DEVELOPING MAINLY OVER THE EAST.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SCENARIO LIES WITH A PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW
THAT WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS FEATURE ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO INTO THE APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS ALONG
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLIDING EAST INTO THE
BAHAMAS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO LEAVE EASTERN KENTUCKY UNDER VERY WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...LOOKING AT THE LOWER LEVELS...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM AGREE
WITH QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE WITH CAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 J/KG BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THIS WITH PWATS
IN THE 1.50 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE BOTH DAYS AND WEAK FLOW WILL LEAD TO
SOME CONCERNS WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THE ONE
SAVING GRACE HERE IS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE IS STILL CENTERED OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES BUT SOME ENERGY FROM THE LOW ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE
LOOKS TO MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN CHAIN AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH A GOOD TRIGGER HERE KEEPS FROM GOING
LIKELY POPS BUT STILL WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FROM WEST TO
EAST AND GOING WITH AERIAL COVERAGE BOTH DAYS AS WITH THE TYPE OF
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...NOT MUCH SUPPORT IS NEEDED FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. MAY NEED TO MENTION SOME THREAT OF SLOW MOVING
STORMS IN THE HWO...MAINLY FOR TUESDAY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT MAKING IT
INTO THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210741
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Dry conditions will continue through early week as an upper level
ridge centered over the Central and Southern Rockies builds east
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak upper level low/trough
that has lingered over eastern portions of the area will be
shunted into the southern U.S. during this time. As a result,
expect more sunshine and less cloud cover through Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures will also result. Expect upper 80s today, then lower
90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings tomorrow
and Wednesday will reach into the mid and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again bring a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out is uncertain at this point. Most models hint at a possible
influence from remnant overnight activity across northern portions
of the area during the morning. Then by afternoon, I am not
entirely confident the mid level cap will be eroded as models
currently suggest. As a result, we will keep probabilities in the
chance category on Wednesday for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The upper level ridge responsible for dry, hot, and humid conditions
in the short term portion of the forecast will have begun to
retrograde back to the west at the beginning of the long term
period. As a result, this puts our region back in northwest flow
aloft which typically delivers cooler and less humid conditions with
an occasional frontal passage, which is not a common occurrence in
the latter half of July in the mid latitudes, but certainly a
welcomed one.

Anyway, the long term period begins with the passage of the first of
multiple frontal boundaries that will impact the region`s weather
during the period. With the passage of the first boundary, with
decent upper support and moisture, precipitation chances will be
very good Wednesday night, especially over the southeast half of our
CWA. Precipitation chances will taper off from the northwest on
Thursday in the wake of the front.

At this time Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry as surface
high pressure overspreads the area. Precipitation chances make their
way back into the forecast starting Friday night as the
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front
across our area in response to a developing weather system over the
central plains. The presence of the boundary and a series of ripples
of energy in the upper flow will provide the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the end of the
period as the frontal boundary associated with the developing system
along with upper support and decent moisture approaches and
ultimately crosses our area on Sunday. Even with two cold frontal
passages in the long term, the latest SPC day 4-8 outlook shows no
threat for severe storms at this time.

Beyond Thursday temperatures and dewpoints moderate back to near
normal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The fog was a little slower showing up tonight vs last night.
However KPAH and KCGI vsbys are falling with clear skies and calm
winds reported across the area so kept mvfr fog and some ifr fog
between midnight until shortly after sunrise. Then burn it off
rapidly by 15z with some light winds starting to pick up at that
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KH









000
FXUS63 KPAH 210741
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
241 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Dry conditions will continue through early week as an upper level
ridge centered over the Central and Southern Rockies builds east
into the Mid Mississippi Valley. The weak upper level low/trough
that has lingered over eastern portions of the area will be
shunted into the southern U.S. during this time. As a result,
expect more sunshine and less cloud cover through Tuesday. Warmer
temperatures will also result. Expect upper 80s today, then lower
90s Tuesday and Wednesday. Afternoon heat index readings tomorrow
and Wednesday will reach into the mid and possibly upper 90s.

A southward push in the jet stream will once again bring a cold
front into the region on Wednesday. The front will bring our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Exactly how Wednesday plays
out is uncertain at this point. Most models hint at a possible
influence from remnant overnight activity across northern portions
of the area during the morning. Then by afternoon, I am not
entirely confident the mid level cap will be eroded as models
currently suggest. As a result, we will keep probabilities in the
chance category on Wednesday for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

The upper level ridge responsible for dry, hot, and humid conditions
in the short term portion of the forecast will have begun to
retrograde back to the west at the beginning of the long term
period. As a result, this puts our region back in northwest flow
aloft which typically delivers cooler and less humid conditions with
an occasional frontal passage, which is not a common occurrence in
the latter half of July in the mid latitudes, but certainly a
welcomed one.

Anyway, the long term period begins with the passage of the first of
multiple frontal boundaries that will impact the region`s weather
during the period. With the passage of the first boundary, with
decent upper support and moisture, precipitation chances will be
very good Wednesday night, especially over the southeast half of our
CWA. Precipitation chances will taper off from the northwest on
Thursday in the wake of the front.

At this time Thursday night and Friday appear to be dry as surface
high pressure overspreads the area. Precipitation chances make their
way back into the forecast starting Friday night as the
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts back northward as a warm front
across our area in response to a developing weather system over the
central plains. The presence of the boundary and a series of ripples
of energy in the upper flow will provide the focus for shower and
thunderstorm development.

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast through the end of the
period as the frontal boundary associated with the developing system
along with upper support and decent moisture approaches and
ultimately crosses our area on Sunday. Even with two cold frontal
passages in the long term, the latest SPC day 4-8 outlook shows no
threat for severe storms at this time.

Beyond Thursday temperatures and dewpoints moderate back to near
normal levels by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The fog was a little slower showing up tonight vs last night.
However KPAH and KCGI vsbys are falling with clear skies and calm
winds reported across the area so kept mvfr fog and some ifr fog
between midnight until shortly after sunrise. Then burn it off
rapidly by 15z with some light winds starting to pick up at that
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KH








000
FXUS63 KLMK 210709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window, and
most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit BWG as
hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower dewpoints
that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a similar theme of
prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm enough to limit
impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
309 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 305 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Near-term issue will be fog through the morning commute. Patchy fog
has developed over portions of the Bluegrass region and some other
typical fog-prone areas, especially where rain fell on Sunday
afternoon. Fog is locally dense but still not overly widespread or
persistent based on METARs and area webcams. At this point a Dense
Fog Advisory seems unlikely, but will continue to monitor trends and
could very well go with a Special Weather Statement.

Once we get through the next few hours, a strengthening upper ridge
over the southern Rockies will be the main player in our weather for
the next couple days. Max temps and precip chances will hinge on
just how far east that ridge can build into the Ohio Valley. Temps
should top out close to 90 this afternoon, and lower/mid 90s will be
on tap Tuesday afternoon as the ridge builds in even stronger. With
dewpoints in the upper 60s, heat index will creep up near 100F on
Tuesday afternoon. Main fly in the ointment, especially for south-
central Kentucky, will be the weak upper low that is progged to
close off over the Deep South. PWATs struggling toward 1.5 inches
are underwhelming for mid-July. Will keep a dry forecast for today,
and bring a 20-30 POP into the Lake Cumberland area on Tuesday
afternoon, but even that may be a bit generous.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature an amplified ridge across the western CONUS, with a
downstream trough attempting to build into the Great Lakes region.
This upper trough will amplify into the Ohio Valley through the long
term period, allowing for cooler conditions and unsettled weather to
return to the Ohio Valley.

Ahead of the aforementioned trough and associated surface front,
Wednesday has the potential to get quite warm as 850mb temps climb
to near 20C.  However, will have to watch two separate areas of
possible convection Wednesday afternoon.  One area will be pushing
into southern IN along a surface front from the north.  A secondary
region of convective potential will be across the Lake Cumberland
region, where a weakening cutoff upper low across the Southeast will
sling a weak PV anomaly north into southern KY.  Given only weak
capping, think this feature may be enough to spark storms across
south-central KY.  In between these two convective regions, partly
cloudy skies should allow temperatures to climb into the 90s,
perhaps into the mid 90s if convection and convective debris hold
off for much of the day.

The upper trough and associated surface front will push through the
region late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.   As mentioned
above, convection will likely develop across central IN ahead of
this front early Wednesday afternoon, spreading south into southern
IN/KY through the evening and overnight hours.  At this time, am not
overly impressed with any organized severe potential.  Winds fields
are quite weak, with 0-6km shear <20 knots.  0-3km shear looks less
than 10 knots, which means any congealing cold pools will have a
tough time remaining tied to their parent convection.  While a few
strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds are
possible given MLCAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg and steep low-level lapse
rates (especially if low to mid 90 temps are realized), this system
does not appear to pose an organized severe threat at this time.

After some lingering showers/storms Thursday, conditions will begin
to dry out from north to south as yet another cool airmass settles
into the region.  Temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s, with dewpoints in the lower 60s.

Uncertainty increases into the upcoming weekend as guidance is
struggling with the timing of the next trough diving into the Ohio
Valley.  For now, will continue with a general model blend which
brings precipitation chances back into the region Saturday into
Sunday.  This system will have better mid-level flow to work with,
so will have to watch this system for the potential of organized
convection over the coming days.  Highs will be in the mid 80s for
the weekend.

Just outside of the long term period, it appears as if another
substantial cool down is in store for the Ohio Valley as the trough
really carves into the eastern CONUS behind the weekend system.
Highs may be similar to what we saw this past week, confined to the
70s.  Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window, and
most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit BWG as
hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower dewpoints
that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a similar theme of
prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm enough to limit
impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........KJD
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 210538
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME DECREASING CLOUD COVER. HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE
FEW SPRINKLES. THIS SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH LONGER WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SETTING IN. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL CONVINCED THAT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS PAST AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

RELATIVELY BUSY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN A FEW
AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT ACTIVITY IS FINALLY DISSIPATING
AND EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SO FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY
DAWN. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE POPS AND
BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS...CHANGES WOUND UP BEING MINOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE KTS AT BEST. SO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD MEAN HYDRO
ISSUES IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO
INCOMING SHIFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210538
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT ALONG WITH
SOME DECREASING CLOUD COVER. HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE
FEW SPRINKLES. THIS SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH LONGER WITH THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES SETTING IN. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. STILL CONVINCED THAT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
WILL DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN THIS PAST AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. UPLOADED THE LATEST OBS AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

RELATIVELY BUSY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN A FEW
AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT ACTIVITY IS FINALLY DISSIPATING
AND EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SO FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY
DAWN. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE POPS AND
BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS...CHANGES WOUND UP BEING MINOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE KTS AT BEST. SO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD MEAN HYDRO
ISSUES IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO
INCOMING SHIFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING TEMPS...FOG WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED. WITH THIS...HAVE PUT SOME BELOW IFR VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE MORNING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT BE A CONCERN TO
THE TAF SITES. HEADING INTO TOMORROW...FOG SHOULD LIFT BY 14 AND 15Z.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COVERAGE AT THIS POINT APPEARS TO BE
IN QUESTION AND SHOWING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS APPEARING AT
THE TAF SITES IS NOT POSSIBLE. WILL LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
TAFS BUT MENTION THE PRESENCE IN THE AFD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210525
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window,
and most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit
BWG as hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower
dewpoints that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a
similar theme of prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm
enough to limit impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around
daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210525
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
125 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 AM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

Main challenge is potential for overnight fog formation. Skies have
cleared and winds have gone nearly calm, with favorable radiational
cooling conditions expected to continue. Most concerned about LEX,
where temp is already close to the afternoon dewpoint, and over a
half inch of rain fell late Sunday afternoon. Latest GFS LAMP
guidance has backed off a bit from previous runs, but still
confident that restrictions to vis will occur. As this discussion
was about to be sent, LEX came in with IFR visibility, so will
initialize accordingly closer to the end of the issuance window,
and most likely include a TEMPO for LIFR vis. Didn`t quite hit
BWG as hard and confidence a bit lower due to some slightly lower
dewpoints that mixed down Sunday afternoon, but stuck with a
similar theme of prevailing MVFR/TEMPO IFR. SDF should stay warm
enough to limit impacts to a couple hrs of MVFR vis around
daybreak.

By mid-morning the fog should dissipate, leaving VFR conditions with
only scattered diurnal cu and light ENE winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......RAS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210436
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Updated for 06z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

H5 ridging will begin bulging farther east into the region during
the next 24 hours or so. This will result in plenty of daytime sun
and little if any threat of rain. It will also result in a warming
trend that will last through the end of the short term (Tuesday)
Temperatures and dewpoints will rise to more normal levels Monday
afternoon, which means afternoon temps near 90 with heat index
values in the mid 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, should be lower to
mid 90s with heat indices close to 100 or so.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Though it should not be widespread, it could be
locally dense, especially toward dawn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The ECE/GFS/NAEFS ensemble means were in good agreement in the
extended period. The mid/upper ridge in the swrn CONUS, with trofs
in the nwrn CONUS and ern CONUS, will be suppressed mid-period by
the nwrn trof as it moves along the Canadian border. By the end of
next weekend, a long wave mid/upper trof may dominate the ern CONUS,
providing yet another cool down for the PAH forecast area.

On the ern periphery of the dominant high, the PAH forecast area
will see scattered development of showers and tstms mainly Wed
afternoon with the highest PoPs in the nrn half of the region. Wed
night, the convection will transition to the sern half as a shrtwv
trof rounds the ridge and merges with a "weakness" in the heights
over the Deep South. A cold front/sfc trof will also be driven sewd
by the shrtwv energy. However, the deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF
runs differ somewhat as to the nwrn extent of the mid level
"weakness", and therefore PoPs may linger over the sern half of the
region during the day Thu.

The influence of the dominant high should return for Thu night/Fri,
then the long wave pattern is expected to amplify, sweeping another
cold front into our region by Sun. Subtle shrtwv energy may help to
enhance deep moist convection in the nwrn counties Fri night, then
the entire region Sat, followed by the front Sun, which should
provide another interval of pcpn.

Temps will be noticeably cooler late Thu, along with lower
dewpoints. A warming trend can be expected until the very end of the
period (Sun, Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The fog was a little slower showing up tonight vs last night.
However KPAH and KCGI vsbys are falling with clear skies and calm
winds reported across the area so kept mvfr fog and some ifr fog
between midnight until shortly after sunrise. Then burn it off
rapidly by 15z with some light winds starting to pick up at that
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 210436
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1136 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Updated for 06z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

H5 ridging will begin bulging farther east into the region during
the next 24 hours or so. This will result in plenty of daytime sun
and little if any threat of rain. It will also result in a warming
trend that will last through the end of the short term (Tuesday)
Temperatures and dewpoints will rise to more normal levels Monday
afternoon, which means afternoon temps near 90 with heat index
values in the mid 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, should be lower to
mid 90s with heat indices close to 100 or so.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Though it should not be widespread, it could be
locally dense, especially toward dawn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The ECE/GFS/NAEFS ensemble means were in good agreement in the
extended period. The mid/upper ridge in the swrn CONUS, with trofs
in the nwrn CONUS and ern CONUS, will be suppressed mid-period by
the nwrn trof as it moves along the Canadian border. By the end of
next weekend, a long wave mid/upper trof may dominate the ern CONUS,
providing yet another cool down for the PAH forecast area.

On the ern periphery of the dominant high, the PAH forecast area
will see scattered development of showers and tstms mainly Wed
afternoon with the highest PoPs in the nrn half of the region. Wed
night, the convection will transition to the sern half as a shrtwv
trof rounds the ridge and merges with a "weakness" in the heights
over the Deep South. A cold front/sfc trof will also be driven sewd
by the shrtwv energy. However, the deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF
runs differ somewhat as to the nwrn extent of the mid level
"weakness", and therefore PoPs may linger over the sern half of the
region during the day Thu.

The influence of the dominant high should return for Thu night/Fri,
then the long wave pattern is expected to amplify, sweeping another
cold front into our region by Sun. Subtle shrtwv energy may help to
enhance deep moist convection in the nwrn counties Fri night, then
the entire region Sat, followed by the front Sun, which should
provide another interval of pcpn.

Temps will be noticeably cooler late Thu, along with lower
dewpoints. A warming trend can be expected until the very end of the
period (Sun, Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The fog was a little slower showing up tonight vs last night.
However KPAH and KCGI vsbys are falling with clear skies and calm
winds reported across the area so kept mvfr fog and some ifr fog
between midnight until shortly after sunrise. Then burn it off
rapidly by 15z with some light winds starting to pick up at that
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...KH






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

RELATIVELY BUSY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN A FEW
AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT ACTIVITY IS FINALLY DISSIPATING
AND EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SO FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY
DAWN. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE POPS AND
BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS...CHANGES WOUND UP BEING MINOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE KTS AT BEST. SO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD MEAN HYDRO
ISSUES IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO
INCOMING SHIFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210405
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

RELATIVELY BUSY NIGHT WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EVEN A FEW
AREAS THAT SAW SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. BUT ACTIVITY IS FINALLY DISSIPATING
AND EXPECT MUCH QUIETER WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT SO FOG LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET BY
DAWN. THE FOG COULD BE DENSE IN A FEW LOCATIONS WHERE RAIN FELL
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE POPS AND
BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS...CHANGES WOUND UP BEING MINOR.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...
HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS...ON THE ORDER OF A
COUPLE KTS AT BEST. SO ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD MEAN HYDRO
ISSUES IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WILL PASS ON CONCERNS TO
INCOMING SHIFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KLMK 210157
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210157
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210157
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KLMK 210157
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
957 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 948 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Skies have been continuing to clear out across the forecast area
with some clouds lingering in portions of southern and eastern KY.
This, along with very light to calm winds and plenty of low-level
moisture sticking around yields a decent chance for patchy fog
throughout central KY and southern IN. The better chances for fog
development (outside of prone locations) will be concentrated to
locations that received rain today, particularly in the Bluegrass
region. Increasing confidence exists for areas of fog to develop in
and around rivers, valleys, and other prone spots and have updated
the forecast as such. As for temperatures, have bumped lows down a
degree or two to account for radiational cooling expected under the
mostly clear skies. Dewpoints have also been adjusted accordingly.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........lg
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg






000
FXUS63 KJKL 210140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210140
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THERE IS A VERY
GRADUAL DECREASE IN ACTIVITY. BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT NATURE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DECIDED
TO INTRODUCE ISOLD THUNDER FOR THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THE UPDATE.
OTHERWISE BROUGHT GRIDS INTO LINE WITH HOURLY TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY







000
FXUS63 KJKL 210024
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 824 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING HAS KICKED OFF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GENERALLY
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM KEKQ TO KSYM. LONDON AND JACKSON HAD
SHOWERS PASS OVER THE TERMINALS. CONSIDERING TIME OF OCCURRENCE AND
THE FACT THAT WE ARE WELL INTO THE EARLY EVENING NOW...EXPECT FOG
MAY FORM A BIT EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE MIGHT SUGGEST AT LONDON
AND JACKSON. MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ALL AIRPORTS DOWN INTO LIFR
TERRITORY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY DUE TO FOG. WITH
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...SEE NO REASON TO DOUBT MODEL GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE FIRST 8 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF
THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY








000
FXUS63 KLMK 202344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg





000
FXUS63 KLMK 202344
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
744 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 738 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Fog and low ceilings will be the big concern for aviation interests
by the pre-dawn hours on Monday. Satellite imagery and current obs
are showing clearing skies across much of central KY and southern
IN. Clouds are continuing to stream across TN and eastern KY but
they are expected to remain well outside of impacting the area
terminals. With plenty of low-level moisture remaining in place
through tomorrow, clearing skies, and very light to calm winds
overnight, IFR to possibly LIFR conditions are anticipated at BWG
and LEX, particularly LEX given the rain received there this
afternoon. As for SDF, MVFR conditions are anticipated for the early
Monday morning hours but IFR conditions can`t be ruled out entirely.
Will need to monitor trends and update as necessary throughout the
night to see just how low visbys/ceilings go.

Once the fog/low ceilings clear tomorrow morning, expect a fair day
with the development of an afternoon CU field as an elongated area
of high pressure/ridging moves into the Ohio Valley. Winds will be
generally light and out of the NE on Monday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........lg






000
FXUS63 KJKL 202309
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW








000
FXUS63 KJKL 202309
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

QUICK UPDATE FOR THE UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY REGION IN COMBINATION WITH
FAVORABLE DIURNAL HEATING IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LATE DAY INCREASE.
ONE PARTICULAR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OVER THE BLUEGRASS HAS MANAGED TO
STRENGTHEN INTO THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...CLUSTERS HAVE MANAGED TO
PRODUCE A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA THAT ARE KICKING OFF
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS. INCREASED POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING TO LINE UP WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. TWEAKED GRIDS FOR
HOURLY OBS AS WELL. WITH EXTREMELY ISOLD NATURE OF THUNDER LEFT
MENTION OF OUT OF THE ZONE PACKAGE...PREFERRING TO MENTION IN OUR
GRAPHICAL-NOWCAST PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIR MASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIR MASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 202236
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Updated for 00z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

H5 ridging will begin bulging farther east into the region during
the next 24 hours or so. This will result in plenty of daytime sun
and little if any threat of rain. It will also result in a warming
trend that will last through the end of the short term (Tuesday)
Temperatures and dewpoints will rise to more normal levels Monday
afternoon, which means afternoon temps near 90 with heat index
values in the mid 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, should be lower to
mid 90s with heat indices close to 100 or so.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Though it should not be widespread, it could be
locally dense, especially toward dawn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The ECE/GFS/NAEFS ensemble means were in good agreement in the
extended period. The mid/upper ridge in the swrn CONUS, with trofs
in the nwrn CONUS and ern CONUS, will be suppressed mid-period by
the nwrn trof as it moves along the Canadian border. By the end of
next weekend, a long wave mid/upper trof may dominate the ern CONUS,
providing yet another cool down for the PAH forecast area.

On the ern periphery of the dominant high, the PAH forecast area
will see scattered development of showers and tstms mainly Wed
afternoon with the highest PoPs in the nrn half of the region. Wed
night, the convection will transition to the sern half as a shrtwv
trof rounds the ridge and merges with a "weakness" in the heights
over the Deep South. A cold front/sfc trof will also be driven sewd
by the shrtwv energy. However, the deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF
runs differ somewhat as to the nwrn extent of the mid level
"weakness", and therefore PoPs may linger over the sern half of the
region during the day Thu.

The influence of the dominant high should return for Thu night/Fri,
then the long wave pattern is expected to amplify, sweeping another
cold front into our region by Sun. Subtle shrtwv energy may help to
enhance deep moist convection in the nwrn counties Fri night, then
the entire region Sat, followed by the front Sun, which should
provide another interval of pcpn.

Temps will be noticeably cooler late Thu, along with lower
dewpoints. A warming trend can be expected until the very end of the
period (Sun, Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Major update to existing tafs. Fog is the main concern with
surface high centered over the area...calm winds...and cross over
temps are expected to be prominent across the taf sites. The
reason KEVV and KOWB did not bottom out last night is they had
wind. That is not expected to be the case tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 202236
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Updated for 00z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

H5 ridging will begin bulging farther east into the region during
the next 24 hours or so. This will result in plenty of daytime sun
and little if any threat of rain. It will also result in a warming
trend that will last through the end of the short term (Tuesday)
Temperatures and dewpoints will rise to more normal levels Monday
afternoon, which means afternoon temps near 90 with heat index
values in the mid 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, should be lower to
mid 90s with heat indices close to 100 or so.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Though it should not be widespread, it could be
locally dense, especially toward dawn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The ECE/GFS/NAEFS ensemble means were in good agreement in the
extended period. The mid/upper ridge in the swrn CONUS, with trofs
in the nwrn CONUS and ern CONUS, will be suppressed mid-period by
the nwrn trof as it moves along the Canadian border. By the end of
next weekend, a long wave mid/upper trof may dominate the ern CONUS,
providing yet another cool down for the PAH forecast area.

On the ern periphery of the dominant high, the PAH forecast area
will see scattered development of showers and tstms mainly Wed
afternoon with the highest PoPs in the nrn half of the region. Wed
night, the convection will transition to the sern half as a shrtwv
trof rounds the ridge and merges with a "weakness" in the heights
over the Deep South. A cold front/sfc trof will also be driven sewd
by the shrtwv energy. However, the deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF
runs differ somewhat as to the nwrn extent of the mid level
"weakness", and therefore PoPs may linger over the sern half of the
region during the day Thu.

The influence of the dominant high should return for Thu night/Fri,
then the long wave pattern is expected to amplify, sweeping another
cold front into our region by Sun. Subtle shrtwv energy may help to
enhance deep moist convection in the nwrn counties Fri night, then
the entire region Sat, followed by the front Sun, which should
provide another interval of pcpn.

Temps will be noticeably cooler late Thu, along with lower
dewpoints. A warming trend can be expected until the very end of the
period (Sun, Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Major update to existing tafs. Fog is the main concern with
surface high centered over the area...calm winds...and cross over
temps are expected to be prominent across the taf sites. The
reason KEVV and KOWB did not bottom out last night is they had
wind. That is not expected to be the case tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...KH






000
FXUS63 KJKL 202025
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. IN BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. A SHORTWAVE OR SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO BE
WORKING FROM THE US CANADIAN BORDER/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES AT THAT TIME.

THROUGH TUE NIGHT...INTO WED...THE PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY A BIT AROUND MIDWEEK WITH THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING A BIT OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE TREKKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD ROTATE AROUND
A CLOSED LOW OVER CANADA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. DURING THIS PERIOD...THE SOUTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY WEST. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF WEST
NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS SHOULD COMBINATION SHOULD SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE REGION ON WED INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA WED
NIGHT INTO THU. THE GFS RUNS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND FASTER THAN THE ECMWF RUNS. THIS LEADS TO A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF MOIST AND PRECIP CHANCES FROM THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. ALSO FROM THU INTO THE WEEKEND...THE PATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO
FLATTEN OUT AGAIN AS A RATHER ROBUST UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WORK
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST GRADUALLY EAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...
THIS UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
PATTERN AGAIN AMPLIFYING OR RETURNING TO A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INITIALLY SHOULD BE GENERALLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UPPER
LOW POSSIBLY ENHANCING CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. THEN AS THE SHORTWAVES APPROACH AND SEND THE COLD FRONT
TOWARD AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION...UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED
FORM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU EVENING. HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WERE
USED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BOUNDARY FOR GOOD CONVERGE OF
CONVECTION. THE MODEL CONSENSUS BLEND WAS USED FOR POPS ON THU NIGHT
INTO FRI. THE GFS MODEL RUNS IN GENERAL ARE DRIER THROUGH THIS PERIOD...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS WETTER AS IT HAS THE BOUNDARY CLOSER TO THE AREA
THAT PERIOD.

DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS POSSIBLE TO START THE
WEEKEND ON SATURDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...BUT ANY
PASSING DISTURBANCE COULD INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THEN AS THE
TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE INTO WED...BUT
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THU INTO SAT.
THE BIGGEST DEPARTURES OF ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES WILL OCCUR WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS ON THU...AND IN HIGHS IN GENERAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201950
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
250 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

H5 ridging will begin bulging farther east into the region during
the next 24 hours or so. This will result in plenty of daytime sun
and little if any threat of rain. It will also result in a warming
trend that will last through the end of the short term (Tuesday)
Temperatures and dewpoints will rise to more normal levels Monday
afternoon, which means afternoon temps near 90 with heat index
values in the mid 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, should be lower to
mid 90s with heat indices close to 100 or so.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Though it should not be widespread, it could be
locally dense, especially toward dawn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The ECE/GFS/NAEFS ensemble means were in good agreement in the
extended period. The mid/upper ridge in the swrn CONUS, with trofs
in the nwrn CONUS and ern CONUS, will be suppressed mid-period by
the nwrn trof as it moves along the Canadian border. By the end of
next weekend, a long wave mid/upper trof may dominate the ern CONUS,
providing yet another cool down for the PAH forecast area.

On the ern periphery of the dominant high, the PAH forecast area
will see scattered development of showers and tstms mainly Wed
afternoon with the highest PoPs in the nrn half of the region. Wed
night, the convection will transition to the sern half as a shrtwv
trof rounds the ridge and merges with a "weakness" in the heights
over the Deep South. A cold front/sfc trof will also be driven sewd
by the shrtwv energy. However, the deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF
runs differ somewhat as to the nwrn extent of the mid level
"weakness", and therefore PoPs may linger over the sern half of the
region during the day Thu.

The influence of the dominant high should return for Thu night/Fri,
then the long wave pattern is expected to amplify, sweeping another
cold front into our region by Sun. Subtle shrtwv energy may help to
enhance deep moist convection in the nwrn counties Fri night, then
the entire region Sat, followed by the front Sun, which should
provide another interval of pcpn.

Temps will be noticeably cooler late Thu, along with lower
dewpoints. A warming trend can be expected until the very end of the
period (Sun, Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

High pressure to remain in control throughout the period. May
experience another bout of patchy fog late at night thru sunrise.
Should be shallow and patchy...but locally dense at times.
Otherwise, possibly some vfr cigs in the afternoon hours.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201921
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

A broad area of high pressure at the surface will stretch along the
northeastern seaboard back into Kentucky through the short term.
Aloft the trough over the area will shift eastward tonight. Ridging
building across the western CONUS will edge closer to the area with
heights rising aloft.

A few showers remain across the Bluegrass this afternoon. These will
slowly continue to work their way eastward and should move out of
the area by evening. Clouds will begin to dissipate tonight with
partly cloudy skies expected by morning. Ample low level moisture
will remain in place across the region, however. With light winds
and clearing skies, some patchy fog may develop after midnight. Lows
tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

For tomorrow went ahead and removed precipitation chances from the
forecast. With the ridge building aloft and capping over the area,
think that any showers or storms will stay east of the area. Dry
conditions will continue Monday night. We will be warming up some
more tomorrow with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 expected.
Lows tomorrow night will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s in urban
areas.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Upper level ridging looks to bring hot temperatures to the Ohio
Valley during the first few days of the long term period.  Expect
temps to top out in the low to mid 90s both Tues and Wed with night
time lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.  Ridging will provide a
strong cap over much of the area Tues suppressing any t-storm
activity although the cap will be noticeably weaker in the Lake
Cumberland region according to model soundings and thus a few storms
aren`t out of the question Tues afternoon/evening in that area.

The next solid rain/t-storm chance will arrive late Wed afternoon
into Wed night as an upper trough and cold front dive southeast into
the Ohio Valley.  Isolated to scattered storms look possible Wed
afternoon ahead of the main complex of storms along the cold front.
Sfc instability has the potential to rise to decent levels with the
hot air mass in place but cloud cover from afternoon storms or
storms upstream may limit the amount of instability available for
the main complex of convection arriving Wed night along the cold
front.  At this point, strong storms still look possible late Wed
into Wed night.  However, the evolution of pre-frontal storms and
downstream convection may play a significant role in determining the
strength of storms in our area Wed night.  The main threats from any
strong storms that do develop would be gusty winds, small hail, and
briefly heavy rainfall.

Convection should exit the area early in the day Thurs with high
temps dropping back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Friday looks to be a pleasant day with mostly dry conditions across
the area and partly cloudy skies.  A stray shower or storm may be
possible over south central KY depending on how far south the cold
front settles and if it wobbles back north a bit on Friday.  Overall
though think that the precip chances will remain to our south and
east with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s over the Ohio
Valley.

A significant upper trough looks to make its way into the upper
Midwest for next weekend.  Convection will probably occur with
boundaries and waves associated with this feature, but model
solutions vary widely on the finer details including timing.  Thus
will keep POPs low at this time due to a low confidence forecast.
Temperatures look to remain below normal through next weekend with
highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Ceilings have improved through the morning with MVFR to VFR
conditions at all sites. They are expected to continue to lift this
afternoon with VFR ceilings prevailing at all sites within the next
few hours. Some lower clouds could develop again late tonight.
However, they are not expected to be as widespread or as low as this
morning. Will keep scattered wording in the TAFs for SDF and BWG.
LEX stands a better chance for having an MVFR ceiling, so will go
with broken there.

Winds through the period will be light and variable as high pressure
remains in control. Some light fog will be possible at all sites
towards dawn tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 201920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201920
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE EXPECTATION OF ANOTHER
STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SETTING UP OVERNIGHT...FOG SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. INCLUDED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...WITH AREAS OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS COULD SEE DENSE
FOG...ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL DURING THE DAY TODAY.

THEN FOR TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL
PATTERN TO TAKE OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING
DURING THE DAY/ WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
CONVECTION WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND
PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID LEVEL INVERSION ON THE
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH MORE CLEARING EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED
FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THEN FOR
TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL PATTERN TO TAKE
OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY/
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID
LEVEL INVERSION ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH
MORE CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THEN FOR
TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL PATTERN TO TAKE
OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY/
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID
LEVEL INVERSION ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH
MORE CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THEN FOR
TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL PATTERN TO TAKE
OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY/
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID
LEVEL INVERSION ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH
MORE CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201913
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER JUST OFF TO OUR SOUTH HAS CONTROLLED
TODAY/S WEATHER...BRINGING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND
DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. DURING
THE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS FINALLY BEGAN PUSHING TO THE NE...WHILE
SMALL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS STARTED POPPING UP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER MIDDLE TN...WILL QUICKLY
DROP SOUTHWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PULLING THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE WITH IT. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY EVENING.
BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

THOUGH CLOUD COVER COULD LINGER IN SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...OTHERS
CAN EXPECT SOME DECENT CLEARING. LOWS WILL REGULATE AROUND
NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION. THEN FOR
TOMORROW...EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME DIURNAL PATTERN TO TAKE
OVER. AIRMASS MODIFICATION /ALONG WITH SOME CLEARING DURING THE DAY/
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S. CONVECTION WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WITH LITTLE FORCING. CHOSE TO KEEP ONLY
ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...GIVEN
THE LACK OF A GOOD WIND PROFILE...INSTABILITY...AND A DECENT MID
LEVEL INVERSION ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. EXPECT CONVECTION
TO DIE OUT IN THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH
MORE CLEARING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPS SHOULD DROP
BACK DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S...WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN WHAT IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A rather quiet weather pattern will persist through Tuesday night
with a steady moderation in temperatures through the period. The
weak upper level trough that has lingered over the region the past
several days will finally be shoved east by a building ridge
centered over the Central and Southern Rockies. This should help to
decrease the abundant cloud cover that continues to linger over
portions of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky.

As far as temperatures are concerned, prefer a bias-corrected
guidance blend during the day with a lean towards cooler MOS at
night. The NAM remains too cool, so the forecast is more
representative of a GFS/ECMWF blend. All in all, temperatures
will warm from the mid 80s today into the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Increasing humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Models in decent agreement in their handling of two separate weather
systems in the long term period, so forecast confidence above
average.

The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front
which will tap into deeper moisture and produce showers and
thunderstorms. Due to lack of deep layer flow, the boundary will
take its time crossing the area, consequently precipitation chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with the passage of
the front, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast on Thursday.

High pressure at the surface in the wake of the front should keep
the region dry Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation chances will
return Friday night as an area of low pressure developing over the
plains lifts the aforementioned front back to the north and east as
a warm front. With the front lingering across the area, the approach
of surface low pressure, and a series of upper level disturbances
diving southeast through the flow, precipitation chances should
continue through the end of the period.

With the exception of Thursday and Friday, temperatures and
dewpoints will be near normal through the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

High pressure to remain in control throughout the period. May
experience another bout of patchy fog late at night thru sunrise.
Should be shallow and patchy...but locally dense at times.
Otherwise, possibly some vfr cigs in the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A rather quiet weather pattern will persist through Tuesday night
with a steady moderation in temperatures through the period. The
weak upper level trough that has lingered over the region the past
several days will finally be shoved east by a building ridge
centered over the Central and Southern Rockies. This should help to
decrease the abundant cloud cover that continues to linger over
portions of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky.

As far as temperatures are concerned, prefer a bias-corrected
guidance blend during the day with a lean towards cooler MOS at
night. The NAM remains too cool, so the forecast is more
representative of a GFS/ECMWF blend. All in all, temperatures
will warm from the mid 80s today into the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Increasing humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Models in decent agreement in their handling of two separate weather
systems in the long term period, so forecast confidence above
average.

The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front
which will tap into deeper moisture and produce showers and
thunderstorms. Due to lack of deep layer flow, the boundary will
take its time crossing the area, consequently precipitation chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with the passage of
the front, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast on Thursday.

High pressure at the surface in the wake of the front should keep
the region dry Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation chances will
return Friday night as an area of low pressure developing over the
plains lifts the aforementioned front back to the north and east as
a warm front. With the front lingering across the area, the approach
of surface low pressure, and a series of upper level disturbances
diving southeast through the flow, precipitation chances should
continue through the end of the period.

With the exception of Thursday and Friday, temperatures and
dewpoints will be near normal through the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

High pressure to remain in control throughout the period. May
experience another bout of patchy fog late at night thru sunrise.
Should be shallow and patchy...but locally dense at times.
Otherwise, possibly some vfr cigs in the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A rather quiet weather pattern will persist through Tuesday night
with a steady moderation in temperatures through the period. The
weak upper level trough that has lingered over the region the past
several days will finally be shoved east by a building ridge
centered over the Central and Southern Rockies. This should help to
decrease the abundant cloud cover that continues to linger over
portions of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky.

As far as temperatures are concerned, prefer a bias-corrected
guidance blend during the day with a lean towards cooler MOS at
night. The NAM remains too cool, so the forecast is more
representative of a GFS/ECMWF blend. All in all, temperatures
will warm from the mid 80s today into the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Increasing humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Models in decent agreement in their handling of two separate weather
systems in the long term period, so forecast confidence above
average.

The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front
which will tap into deeper moisture and produce showers and
thunderstorms. Due to lack of deep layer flow, the boundary will
take its time crossing the area, consequently precipitation chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with the passage of
the front, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast on Thursday.

High pressure at the surface in the wake of the front should keep
the region dry Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation chances will
return Friday night as an area of low pressure developing over the
plains lifts the aforementioned front back to the north and east as
a warm front. With the front lingering across the area, the approach
of surface low pressure, and a series of upper level disturbances
diving southeast through the flow, precipitation chances should
continue through the end of the period.

With the exception of Thursday and Friday, temperatures and
dewpoints will be near normal through the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

High pressure to remain in control throughout the period. May
experience another bout of patchy fog late at night thru sunrise.
Should be shallow and patchy...but locally dense at times.
Otherwise, possibly some vfr cigs in the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201835
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

A rather quiet weather pattern will persist through Tuesday night
with a steady moderation in temperatures through the period. The
weak upper level trough that has lingered over the region the past
several days will finally be shoved east by a building ridge
centered over the Central and Southern Rockies. This should help to
decrease the abundant cloud cover that continues to linger over
portions of southwest Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky.

As far as temperatures are concerned, prefer a bias-corrected
guidance blend during the day with a lean towards cooler MOS at
night. The NAM remains too cool, so the forecast is more
representative of a GFS/ECMWF blend. All in all, temperatures
will warm from the mid 80s today into the lower 90s by Tuesday.
Increasing humidity will result in peak afternoon heat index
readings in the mid to upper 90s by Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Models in decent agreement in their handling of two separate weather
systems in the long term period, so forecast confidence above
average.

The long term period starts off with the approach of a cold front
which will tap into deeper moisture and produce showers and
thunderstorms. Due to lack of deep layer flow, the boundary will
take its time crossing the area, consequently precipitation chances
continue Wednesday night into Thursday. However, with the passage of
the front, precipitation chances will taper off from northwest to
southeast on Thursday.

High pressure at the surface in the wake of the front should keep
the region dry Thursday night and Friday. Precipitation chances will
return Friday night as an area of low pressure developing over the
plains lifts the aforementioned front back to the north and east as
a warm front. With the front lingering across the area, the approach
of surface low pressure, and a series of upper level disturbances
diving southeast through the flow, precipitation chances should
continue through the end of the period.

With the exception of Thursday and Friday, temperatures and
dewpoints will be near normal through the rest of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 130 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

High pressure to remain in control throughout the period. May
experience another bout of patchy fog late at night thru sunrise.
Should be shallow and patchy...but locally dense at times.
Otherwise, possibly some vfr cigs in the afternoon hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GM







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201756
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE
FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND
WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201756
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE
FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND
WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

EXTENSIVE FOG...LOW CIGS...AND SLOW MOVING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERED
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN KY...BUT ARE SO LIGHT THEY SHOULD POSE LITTLE
TO NO THREAT AT TAF STIES. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO END DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION ONCE MORE TODAY...AND A GOOD SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...EXPECT FOG TO
BE THE MAIN CONCERN ONCE MORE TONIGHT. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT LIKE
LAST NIGHT SOME AIRPORTS MAY FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINS...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. ONCE FOG BURNS OFF IN THE LATE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Ceilings have improved through the morning with MVFR to VFR
conditions at all sites. They are expected to continue to lift this
afternoon with VFR ceilings prevailing at all sites within the next
few hours. Some lower clouds could develop again late tonight.
However, they are not expected to be as widespread or as low as this
morning. Will keep scattered wording in the TAFs for SDF and BWG.
LEX stands a better chance for having an MVFR ceiling, so will go
with broken there.

Winds through the period will be light and variable as high pressure
remains in control. Some light fog will be possible at all sites
towards dawn tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201700
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
100 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1258 PM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Ceilings have improved through the morning with MVFR to VFR
conditions at all sites. They are expected to continue to lift this
afternoon with VFR ceilings prevailing at all sites within the next
few hours. Some lower clouds could develop again late tonight.
However, they are not expected to be as widespread or as low as this
morning. Will keep scattered wording in the TAFs for SDF and BWG.
LEX stands a better chance for having an MVFR ceiling, so will go
with broken there.

Winds through the period will be light and variable as high pressure
remains in control. Some light fog will be possible at all sites
towards dawn tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 201603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1203 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE
FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND
WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE ALSO SHOWERS AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS THEN BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY DAWN ON MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1203 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE
FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND
WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE ALSO SHOWERS AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS THEN BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY DAWN ON MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1203 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE
FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND
WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE ALSO SHOWERS AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS THEN BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY DAWN ON MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201603
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1203 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY. THESE
SHOWERS SHOWED VERY SLOW PROGRESSION THROUGH THE MORNING...BUT HAVE
FINALLY STARTED MAKING A PUSH TO THE NE. THE MOST IMPACTED AREA SO
FAR HAS BEEN ALONG THE VA BORDER IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN...WHERE A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. NOW THAT THE MOVEMENT HAS FINALLY STARTED SPEEDING UP...THEY
HAVE ALSO SHOWN A BIT OF A DIMINISHING TREND. WE HAVE SEEN AN
INCREASE IN BOTH CIG HEIGHTS AND VIS...WITH FOG FINALLY BURNING OFF
WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THE REGION. UPDATED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR MORE SCATTERED POTENTIAL NEAR THE JKL BORDER OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR POPS AND
WEATHER. LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...WINDS...AND
DEW POINTS AS WELL...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING CONDITIONS WERE WELL
REFLECTED IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE ALSO SHOWERS AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS THEN BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY DAWN ON MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201321
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

LIFR cigs have pushed into KLEX and KBWG early this morning as
an unseasonably cool airmass interacts with copious low-level
moisture.  KSDF has even gone high-end IFR as some light rain
overnight has helped cigs to slowly lower.  Given only light winds
expected today and no real entrainment of drier air, think these low
clouds will be slow to mix out, with KBWG and KLEX likely not going
VFR until this afternoon.  However, it appears that by this
afternoon all sites should return to VFR.  A stray shower is
possible at any site this morning into early this afternoon, with
the best coverage likely occurring near KLEX.

Conditions may once again deteriorate tonight, with light fog and/or
low cigs possible once again, especially towards KLEX.  Given the
uncertainty in the amount of available low-level moisture, will
leave restrictions out of KBWG and KSDF for now, but they may be
needed in coming forecast packages.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201321
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
921 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Light shower continue to develop across east central Kentucky ahead
of a weak surface low. Coverage of showers has increased a bit this
morning, so raised the precipitation chances just a bit in the area
for the next few hours. Also removed any mention of fog from the
forecast. Otherwise, just minor edits were made to bring the
forecast in line with current observations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

The synoptic pattern early this morning features an upper trough
across the Great Lakes region extending into the Ohio Valley, with
an upstream ridge located off the West Coast.  This trough will
begin to finally lose its grip over the Ohio Valley through the
short term period, leading to a warming trend for the start of the
workweek.

The latest surface analysis shows a weak inverted surface trough
located from southwest to northeast, bisecting the state of
Kentucky.  An approaching shortwave trough visible on WV imagery has
led to the development of a weak surface low across southern KY
along the aforementioned trough.  To the northwest of this surface
low, showers have recently increased in coverage along a weak 850mb
front.

These light showers will continue through the remainder of the
morning hours into the afternoon, before tapering off from west to
east throughout the day as the shortwave trough passes through and
the surface low weakens and meanders east.  It appears the best
coverage of these showers will be to the north and east of the weak
low, which puts the Lake Cumberland region and the Northern
Bluegrass at the greatest risk (30% coverage).  Forecast soundings
in these areas continue to support a very isolated risk of a
thunderstorm early this afternoon, thus will continue thunder
mention in the forecast.  Highs today will be quite tricky, as
NAM/GFS guidance differs quite a bit on the depth of the low-level
moisture.  Given the general pattern we`ve been stuck in and no real
entrainment of drier low-level air, have leaned toward the cloudier
NAM solution.  This keeps clouds around through much of the day
across the Northern Bluegrass, which should once again help hold
highs down in the upper 70s to perhaps a few lower 80s.  Further
west towards the I-65 corridor, a few peaks of sunshine this
afternoon should help temperatures rebound into the low to mid 80s.

The upper-level trough will finally begin to lose its grip on the
Ohio Valley tonight, which should allow for a drier forecast.
Cannot rule out a stray shower over near the I-75 corridor along the
stubborn inverted surface trough, but the potential looks too low to
warrant mention in the forecast at this time.  Overnight lows will
be in the mid 60s.

Things will begin to warm up on Monday, as 850mb temperatures warm
to around 17-18C.  In addition, sunshine looks to finally break out
in earnest Monday afternoon.  However, it appears as if winds will
remain quite light and easterly, which will temper the warm up a
bit, thus highs in the mid to upper 80s seem reasonable, with a few
of the typical warm spots touching 90.  Will continue to leave a
very slight chance of a thunderstorm near the surface trough across
the far eastern CWA, but this may be able to removed in the next
forecast package as it appears the threat is trending further
east.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

Main synoptic influence Tuesday into Wednesday will be the hot ridge
building over the Rockies. Better model agreement with each
successive run that the ridge axis will extend eastward somewhere
near 38N, with strong capping over our northern and western
counties, especially on Tuesday. Will keep trending the forecast to
reflect this, pushing highs solidly into the lower 90s, with the
heat island of Metro Louisville creeping into the mid 90s. Heat
indices will be close to 100. Will also keep suppressing the POPs
farther south and east, with chance POPs limited to Lake Cumberland
and even holding the slight chance south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways.

Pattern amplifies on Wednesday with heights falling as a NW flow
impulse pushes the cold front toward the Ohio Valley. Should be just
about as hot as Tuesday, but with better chances of precip,
especially late in the day over southern Indiana.

Best shot at showers and storms will be Wednesday night with the
cold front. Will carry high-end chance POPs with confidence in
timing being the main limiting factor. There will be strong
instability ahead of the front and decent mid-level winds, but
nocturnal timing is not as favorable for severe storms. Dynamics are
just enough to support some organization, so can`t completely rule
out a few strong storms. Will continue to mention in HWO.

Latter part of the week will be marked by east coast trofiness and
NW flow over the Ohio Valley. Temps will run a few degrees below
normal Thu-Sat, especially by day. Surface high over the Great Lakes
will provide at least a day of dry wx and comfortable humidity
levels on Friday. Rain chances return on Saturday as the next system
takes shape in a flattening NW flow.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 648 AM EDT Sun Jul 20 2014

LIFR cigs have pushed into KLEX and KBWG early this morning as
an unseasonably cool airmass interacts with copious low-level
moisture.  KSDF has even gone high-end IFR as some light rain
overnight has helped cigs to slowly lower.  Given only light winds
expected today and no real entrainment of drier air, think these low
clouds will be slow to mix out, with KBWG and KLEX likely not going
VFR until this afternoon.  However, it appears that by this
afternoon all sites should return to VFR.  A stray shower is
possible at any site this morning into early this afternoon, with
the best coverage likely occurring near KLEX.

Conditions may once again deteriorate tonight, with light fog and/or
low cigs possible once again, especially towards KLEX.  Given the
uncertainty in the amount of available low-level moisture, will
leave restrictions out of KBWG and KSDF for now, but they may be
needed in coming forecast packages.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE ALSO SHOWERS AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS THEN BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY DAWN ON MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

UPDATED THE POPS AND WEATHER TO BETTER ACCOMMODATE ONGOING CONDITIONS
WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF EASTERN KY.
ALSO...FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BEING AIDED BY THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AS IT RAINS. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG INTO THE LATE MORNING HOURS...THOUGH EXPECT IT MIGHT
ACTUALLY LINGER A BIT LONGER IN A FEW LOCATIONS. ALSO UPDATED POPS
AND WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA. THIS ALSO MATCHED UP A BIT
BETTER WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT THE CURRENT
DATA AND MONITOR THE RADAR TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER UPDATES WILL NEED TO
BE MADE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 659 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON EARLY MORNING CONDITIONS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING POPS. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS...AND HAVE DROPPED MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
HAVE RAISED POPS FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE WHICH BROUGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY DEPARTED TO
THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...WE WERE LEFT WITH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS UNDERLYING A WEAK RESIDUAL MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND AREA OF DRIZZLE LINGERED EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THIS ENVIRONMENT.

THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS RISING AND TEMPS ALOFT SLOWLY WARMING. MID
LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
WARMING AS PARTIAL SUNSHINE RETURNS. ANY PRECIP SHOULD BECOME LARGELY
DIURNAL IN NATURE. A WARM LAYER AT 650-700 MB WILL TRY TO KEEP DEEP
CONVECTION CAPPED. WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CAP BEING
BROKEN...BUT WITH WEATHER FEATURES BEING VERY WEAK AND WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN POORLY ORGANIZED. WITH THESE
CONSIDERATIONS...THE POP IS LIMITED TO NO MORE THAN 20-30 PERCENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE TAKING AN
OVERALL GRADUAL AMPLIFICATION AS TIME GOES ON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AN OVERALL DEEPENING
OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS TROUGH OVER THE EAST DOES
FILL A BIT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE EXTENDED BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AN
OVERALL DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED ENSUES. THE AFOREMENTIONED FILLING OF THE TROUGH IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD RESULTS IN A PIECE OF ENERGY BEING CUT OFF FROM
THE MAIN FLOW BY THE HEIGHT CENTERS OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A CUT OFF CLOSED LOW ALONG THE LA AND MS GULF
COAST. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE A FOCAL POINT FOR PRECIP THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. FEATURING A COUPLE STRONG WAVES THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. HOWEVER...WHILE THE MODELS
DO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT...PARTICULARLY THE EURO HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THIS WAVE AS IT IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE
PREVIOUS RUNS BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KICK
THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE OUT TO SEA. HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND...A STRONG CLOSED LOW DROPS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY REGION. THIS LOOKS TO
IMPACT THE OH VALLEY TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AND JUST
BEYOND. MODEL TRENDS LATELY HAVE BEEN SHOWING THESE POTENT
SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW AND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING THEM RUN TO
RUN...WILL BE INTERESTING IF THE MODELS FOLLOW SUIT WITH THIS
FEATURE.

FOR SOME SPECIFICS...THE SOUTHERLY WARM AND MOIST FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO STILL BE ON TRACK AND
WITH THE PINCHED OFF LOW OVER THE GULF STATES...THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP WILL BE ON TAP EVERY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT STILL POISED TO MOVE
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRECIP. SO STAYED WITH THE HIGH POPS INHERITED FROM THE
MODEL ALL BLEND ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE TREND OF THE MODELS
WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST MAKES IT DIFFICULT
TO GET INTO ANY SPECIFICS WITH SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY THE
STRONG LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN
MIND...KEPT A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
EXTENDED WITH INCREASED CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
FRONT. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE COOL AND DRY DAY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP. THE MENTIONED STRONG LOW LIES
JUST OUTSIDE THE 7 DAY WINDOW BUT BEARS SOME WATCHING. THE COOLER
AIR MASS SET TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE ENOUGH TO DROP MAX
TEMPS 5 TO 7 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014

CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY MVFR EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME POCKETS
OF IFR AND VFR. THERE WERE ALSO SHOWERS AFFECTING MANY LOCATIONS. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD SHOW AN OVERALL DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH CEILINGS THEN BREAKING UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON TO ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEATING TAKES PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION TO
WARRANT INCLUSION IN TAFS. EXTENSIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD IFR BY DAWN ON MONDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL






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