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000
FXUS63 KPAH 202349
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Weak surface theta-e convergence, insolation under weakening low
level ridging will continue to support isolated to widely
scattered convection through the late afternoon hours.

The differential heating should diminish as insolation and cirrus
canopy reduce gradients of instability for the remainder of the
afternoon. A vast majority of the instability should shift to the
Southern Pennyrile for the remainder of the afternoon, so rain
chances will likely increase during the middle and late afternoon
hours.

A disjointed zone of differential vorticity will support marginal
lift across the approaching baroclinic zone with the surface
representation indicated with the surface cold front. As the upper
level trough supporting the cold front moves southeast, the trend
will be for the trough to shear out with time, reducing the
potential for focused convection. For now, the PoPs and Weather
have been left in chance category or less.

Stability will build in fairly rapidly during the morning hours,
quickly diminishing any remaining shower activity through Sunday.

Northwest flow and ridging will then dominate, bringing back
seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the official beginning
of the Fall season.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A series of shortwave impulses along the U.S. West Coast will
continue keep a net trough pattern along the Western U.S. at the
beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday). Persistent
downstream ridging and a weak moisture convergence will limit
focused potential for convective activity through the remainder of
the week. With the West Coast blocking pattern in place, rain
chances will be nil through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 649 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. The
passage of a cold front late tonight and early Sunday morning may
bring a few showers, so maintained a vicinity shower mention at all
forecast terminals. Otherwise, southwest winds AOB 10 knots ahead of
the front will shift to the northwest at 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts behind the front.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...RJP





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000
FXUS63 KJKL 202328
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. BY LATE TONIGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD WILL
BEGIN ROLLING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. ASIDE FROM
UPDATING THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DRY AND MILD START TO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DECENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DECENT CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL WARRANT INCREASING
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE EXIT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM EARLY TO LATE EVENING. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE A
MARGINAL WIND THREAT DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ALL THAT WARM TOMORROW. SHOULD SEE A MUCH
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE...CLOUDS MAY
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THIS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
START OFF MOVING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS...AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW ARE AS USUAL MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN THIS FAR OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO THESE DETAILS...AND THIS DOES AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE
LONG WAVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLAM
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS
ON THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...WHICH EVENTUALLY
BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE GFS HAS MORE WEAKNESS ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM...WITH
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...KEEPING THE RIDGE MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES LOOK MORE BENIGN EITHER WAY FOR OUR
REGION FOR NOW.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. READINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY WITH SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS COULD
SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AS THE SHOWERS ROLL THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KJKL 202328
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

QUIET FORECAST ON TAP FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST. BY LATE TONIGHT SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUD WILL
BEGIN ROLLING INTO THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING
INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 12Z TOMORROW. ASIDE FROM
UPDATING THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DRY AND MILD START TO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DECENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DECENT CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL WARRANT INCREASING
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE EXIT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM EARLY TO LATE EVENING. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE A
MARGINAL WIND THREAT DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ALL THAT WARM TOMORROW. SHOULD SEE A MUCH
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE...CLOUDS MAY
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THIS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
START OFF MOVING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS...AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW ARE AS USUAL MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN THIS FAR OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO THESE DETAILS...AND THIS DOES AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE
LONG WAVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLAM
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS
ON THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...WHICH EVENTUALLY
BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE GFS HAS MORE WEAKNESS ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM...WITH
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...KEEPING THE RIDGE MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES LOOK MORE BENIGN EITHER WAY FOR OUR
REGION FOR NOW.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. READINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z SUNDAY WITH SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET AT LOZ AND SME. JKL AND SJS COULD
SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AS THE SHOWERS ROLL THROUGH LATE
TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





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000
FXUS63 KLMK 202309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Cluster of convection east of KBWG will continue to slide off to the
east and weaken over the next hour.  VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals this evening and into the overnight hours with a
breezy southwesterly surface flow continuing.

While KBWG did pick up some precipitation this afternoon, current
thinking is that low-level jet cranking up overnight will prevent
fog formation down that way.  However, will continue to monitor for
a possible amendment later if fog developers.

Surface cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.  Model
time height sections continue to show a light southwesterly flow at
the surface with a low-level jet developing after midnight.
Therefore, will keep LLWS in the TAFs going for this update as
current forecast looks good.  Did add some VCSH at the terminals for
late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday as the cold front swings
through the region.  Surface winds will then shift to the west and
northwest Sunday morning as the cold front slide southeastward
across the region.  Surface wind gusts of 15-20kts will be common at
the terminals on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 202309
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...


Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 709 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Cluster of convection east of KBWG will continue to slide off to the
east and weaken over the next hour.  VFR conditions are expected at
the terminals this evening and into the overnight hours with a
breezy southwesterly surface flow continuing.

While KBWG did pick up some precipitation this afternoon, current
thinking is that low-level jet cranking up overnight will prevent
fog formation down that way.  However, will continue to monitor for
a possible amendment later if fog developers.

Surface cold front will approach from the northwest tonight.  Model
time height sections continue to show a light southwesterly flow at
the surface with a low-level jet developing after midnight.
Therefore, will keep LLWS in the TAFs going for this update as
current forecast looks good.  Did add some VCSH at the terminals for
late tonight and toward daybreak Sunday as the cold front swings
through the region.  Surface winds will then shift to the west and
northwest Sunday morning as the cold front slide southeastward
across the region.  Surface wind gusts of 15-20kts will be common at
the terminals on Sunday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KPAH 202027
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Weak surface theta-e convergence, insolation under weakening low
level ridging will continue to support isolated to widely
scattered convection through the late afternoon hours.

The differential heating should diminish as insolation and cirrus
canopy reduce gradients of instability for the remainder of the
afternoon. A vast majority of the instability should shift to the
Southern Pennyrile for the remainder of the afternoon, so rain
chances will likely increase during the middle and late afternoon hours.

A disjointed zone of differential vorticity will support marginal
lift across the approaching baroclinic zone with the surface
representation indicated with the surface cold front. As the upper
level trough supporting the cold front moves southeast, the trend
will be for the trough to shear out with time, reducing the
potential for focused convection. For now, the PoPs and Weather
have been left in chance category or less.

Stability will build in fairly rapidly during the morning hours,
quickly diminishing any remaining shower activity through Sunday.

Northwest flow and ridging will then dominate, bringing back
seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the official beginning
of the Fall season.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014


A series of shortwave impulses along the U.S. West Coast will
continue keep a net trough pattern along the Western U.S. at the
beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday). Persistent
downstream ridging and a weak moisture convergence will limit
focused potential for convective activity through the remainder of
the week. With the West Coast blocking pattern in place, rain
chances will be nil through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Cu (Cumulus) field well represented under ridge across the WFO PAH
TAF sites near the beginning of the 18z Saturday forecast. With
local convergence and insolation fixed along a KFAM-KCUL line as of
17z, isolated convection may impact the terminal sites this
afternoon. However, given the limited coverage expected at this
time, decided to keep the mention of rain out of the area through
sunset.

Likewise, added a mention of vicinity showers to the forecast for
the peak period of precipitation potential through 18z Sunday. At
this point, am not confident to input more than VFR ceilings in
the proximity of the TAF sites.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 202027
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Weak surface theta-e convergence, insolation under weakening low
level ridging will continue to support isolated to widely
scattered convection through the late afternoon hours.

The differential heating should diminish as insolation and cirrus
canopy reduce gradients of instability for the remainder of the
afternoon. A vast majority of the instability should shift to the
Southern Pennyrile for the remainder of the afternoon, so rain
chances will likely increase during the middle and late afternoon hours.

A disjointed zone of differential vorticity will support marginal
lift across the approaching baroclinic zone with the surface
representation indicated with the surface cold front. As the upper
level trough supporting the cold front moves southeast, the trend
will be for the trough to shear out with time, reducing the
potential for focused convection. For now, the PoPs and Weather
have been left in chance category or less.

Stability will build in fairly rapidly during the morning hours,
quickly diminishing any remaining shower activity through Sunday.

Northwest flow and ridging will then dominate, bringing back
seasonable temperatures and dry weather for the official beginning
of the Fall season.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014


A series of shortwave impulses along the U.S. West Coast will
continue keep a net trough pattern along the Western U.S. at the
beginning of the extended forecast period (Tuesday). Persistent
downstream ridging and a weak moisture convergence will limit
focused potential for convective activity through the remainder of
the week. With the West Coast blocking pattern in place, rain
chances will be nil through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Cu (Cumulus) field well represented under ridge across the WFO PAH
TAF sites near the beginning of the 18z Saturday forecast. With
local convergence and insolation fixed along a KFAM-KCUL line as of
17z, isolated convection may impact the terminal sites this
afternoon. However, given the limited coverage expected at this
time, decided to keep the mention of rain out of the area through
sunset.

Likewise, added a mention of vicinity showers to the forecast for
the peak period of precipitation potential through 18z Sunday. At
this point, am not confident to input more than VFR ceilings in
the proximity of the TAF sites.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...Smith







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DRY AND MILD START TO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DECENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DECENT CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL WARRANT INCREASING
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE EXIT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM EARLY TO LATE EVENING. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE A
MARGINAL WIND THREAT DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ALL THAT WARM TOMORROW. SHOULD SEE A MUCH
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE...CLOUDS MAY
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THIS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
START OFF MOVING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS...AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW ARE AS USUAL MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN THIS FAR OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO THESE DETAILS...AND THIS DOES AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE
LONG WAVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLAM
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS
ON THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...WHICH EVENTUALLY
BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE GFS HAS MORE WEAKNESS ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM...WITH
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...KEEPING THE RIDGE MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES LOOK MORE BENIGN EITHER WAY FOR OUR
REGION FOR NOW.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. READINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN US THIS
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A DRY AND MILD START TO THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALREADY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...PROVIDING DECENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. DECENT CONVERGENCE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS BOUNDARY
SHIFTS SOUTH TONIGHT. INSTABILITY MAY WANE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...THE MAIN FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL WARRANT INCREASING
COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD. THE FRONT
WILL BE ON THE EXIT BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM EARLY TO LATE EVENING. IF
ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WE COULD SEE A
MARGINAL WIND THREAT DEVELOP WITH A FEW STORMS. HOWEVER...THIS
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

STAYED ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS AND
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TOMORROW AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ALL THAT WARM TOMORROW. SHOULD SEE A MUCH
COLDER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE COLD ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE SOME CLEARING MAY BE POSSIBLE...CLOUDS MAY
FILL BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS A SECONDARY TROUGH DROPS SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THUS...THIS MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN
TO AFFECT THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
START OFF MOVING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH RIDGING IN THE
PLAINS...AND DEEP TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SMALLER SCALE
FEATURES WITHIN THE BROADER FLOW ARE AS USUAL MORE DIFFICULT TO NAIL
DOWN THIS FAR OUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH
REGARD TO THESE DETAILS...AND THIS DOES AFFECT THE OUTCOME OF THE
LONG WAVE TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SLAM
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HELPING TO
AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE...WHICH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAKNESS
ON THE UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AXIS.

THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS POINT...WITH THE ECMWF PUTTING MORE
EMPHASIS ON THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE DOWNSTREAM...WHICH EVENTUALLY
BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL FORM ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE GFS HAS MORE WEAKNESS ESTABLISHED UPSTREAM...WITH
TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS...KEEPING THE RIDGE MORE
ESTABLISHED IN THE EASTERN CONUS. GIVEN ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...
WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE
RESULTANT SURFACE FEATURES LOOK MORE BENIGN EITHER WAY FOR OUR
REGION FOR NOW.

FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...VERY PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE
PERIOD...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN
THE 40S. READINGS WILL THEN GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS NEARING THE 80 DEGREE MARK BY THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...

Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper Midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...

Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper Midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...

Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper Midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201905
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

SW return flow is well established over the Ohio Valley as high
pressure retreats off the Delmarva coast, and a cold front dives SE
across the Land of Lincoln. Temps have punched into the lower/mid
80s with dewpoints solidly in the 60s, in a definitive last hurrah
for astronomical summer. Modest enhancement in the cu field over
southern Indiana has generated a few isolated showers, but even the
traditional 20 POP is a bit generous to describe their coverage.

The heat of the afternoon will keep the isolated showers in play
until around sunset, and there is enough enhancement in the cu that
north-central Kentucky would be fair game as well. However, there
remains a strong enough mid-level cap that any showers could not
grow very tall, so no mention of thunder.

Low-level jetting overnight will keep temps unseasonably mild. Given
the typical model bias in pre-frontal SW flow, will keep forecast
temps at least a couple degrees warmer than the warmest of the model
guidance. Main bust potential would be anywhere that it rains before
daybreak, as wet-bulb effects would knock temps down closer to model
guidance. Confidence in precip is again quite limited, as model QPF
fields are backing off in response to the track of the upper impulse
remaining to our north. Will go above guidance POPs with 30-40 POP
north and just a slight chance over south central Kentucky, but QPF
looks quite meager.

Best rain chances on Sunday will be across southern Indiana early in
the morning. The cold front could dry up as it pushes southeast, as
the dynamics are not as favorable farther south. Fropa will be
around the time of minimum instability, but with decent mid-level
lapse rates and a 30-40 kt low-level jet at 925mb, will at least
mention isolated thunder. POPs never go above slight chance south of
the Western Kentucky Parkway and west of I-65.

Decent cold air advection will set up behind the front. However with
deep boundary-layer mixing and decreasing cloudiness, we do expect
at least some diurnal temp recovery. Sunday night mins will be above
guidance once again, as the N-NW winds stay up around 5-7 kt.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Upper air pattern will set up Monday through the entire work week to
bring a remarkable stretch of fine late September weather that, all
told, will probably last a full week or more. In fact, 500mb heights
over the northern Ohio Valley from Wednesday onwards will rise to
values more typical of summer than early fall.

Basically, this fundamental shift in the pattern aloft will begin
Tuesday as a deep upper trough develops off of or near the Pacific
Northwest coast. Due to the configuration of the northern
hemispheric flow, this trough will move very little, possibly coming
ashore the Pacific Northwest coast late Friday. Strong 500mb ridging
will develop over Indiana or Ohio Tuesday and will remain nearly
stationary through probably at least Saturday or Sunday of next
week.

Now for the details...

Expect a rain free week with the first real chance of precipitation not
really apparent until a week from tomorrow.

High pressure building across the upper Midwest early Monday will
bring northerly winds and a cool day Monday, despite ample sunshine.
Temperatures Monday will struggle to reach 70, especially across
southern Indiana and the Bluegrass Region. After a clear night with
light northeast winds and good radiational cooling, Tuesday morning
will be chilly, with the coolest early morning lows of the season so
far. Some typically cool sheltered rural locations may approach 40
for a low early Tuesday. Tuesday will warm into the lower 70s under
ample sun and light east winds.

Wednesday through Friday will be mostly clear with a slow warming
trend. Stationary high pressure over Ohio throughout this period
will bring light winds and several days of relatively wide diurnal
temperature swings. Expect warm afternoons with coolish nights.
Highs will warm from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, with lows in the 50s.

Clear to partly cloudy skies, slightly higher humidities and warm
temperatures are anticipated next weekend. Deep layer moisture will
return to the Tennessee Valley with some chance of afternoon or
evening thunderstorms. However, for now, will continue with a dry
forecast as drier air is still expected to hold over the
Commonwealth. Temperatures this weekend will not stay warm, with
highs near or in the lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........JSD
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201831
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS
ENDED AS THE BETTER CU FIELD IS WELL OUT TO OUR WEST. THUS...PLAN TO
GO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL AC HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MID
LEVEL AC HAS A FEW VERTICAL TOWERS ALREADY SEEN FROM THE OFFICE. WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND THUNDER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A THREAT AS
INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201831
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS HAS
ENDED AS THE BETTER CU FIELD IS WELL OUT TO OUR WEST. THUS...PLAN TO
GO DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL AC HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MID
LEVEL AC HAS A FEW VERTICAL TOWERS ALREADY SEEN FROM THE OFFICE. WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND THUNDER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A THREAT AS
INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME
PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING WITH CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 3500 FEET.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accommodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thunderstorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Cu (Cumulus) field well represented under ridge across the WFO PAH
TAF sites near the beginning of the 18z Saturday forecast. With
local convergence and insolation fixed along a KFAM-KCUL line as of
17z, isolated convection may impact the terminal sites this
afternoon. However, given the limited coverage expected at this
time, decided to keep the mention of rain out of the area through
sunset.

Likewise, added a mention of vicinity showers to the forecast for
the peak period of precipitation potential through 18z Sunday. At
this point, am not confident to input more than VFR ceilings in
the proximity of the TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accommodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thunderstorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Cu (Cumulus) field well represented under ridge across the WFO PAH
TAF sites near the beginning of the 18z Saturday forecast. With
local convergence and insolation fixed along a KFAM-KCUL line as of
17z, isolated convection may impact the terminal sites this
afternoon. However, given the limited coverage expected at this
time, decided to keep the mention of rain out of the area through
sunset.

Likewise, added a mention of vicinity showers to the forecast for
the peak period of precipitation potential through 18z Sunday. At
this point, am not confident to input more than VFR ceilings in
the proximity of the TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accommodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thunderstorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Cu (Cumulus) field well represented under ridge across the WFO PAH
TAF sites near the beginning of the 18z Saturday forecast. With
local convergence and insolation fixed along a KFAM-KCUL line as of
17z, isolated convection may impact the terminal sites this
afternoon. However, given the limited coverage expected at this
time, decided to keep the mention of rain out of the area through
sunset.

Likewise, added a mention of vicinity showers to the forecast for
the peak period of precipitation potential through 18z Sunday. At
this point, am not confident to input more than VFR ceilings in
the proximity of the TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KPAH 201742
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accommodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thunderstorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Cu (Cumulus) field well represented under ridge across the WFO PAH
TAF sites near the beginning of the 18z Saturday forecast. With
local convergence and insolation fixed along a KFAM-KCUL line as of
17z, isolated convection may impact the terminal sites this
afternoon. However, given the limited coverage expected at this
time, decided to keep the mention of rain out of the area through
sunset.

Likewise, added a mention of vicinity showers to the forecast for
the peak period of precipitation potential through 18z Sunday. At
this point, am not confident to input more than VFR ceilings in
the proximity of the TAF sites.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith






000
FXUS63 KLMK 201720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Main challenge in this TAF set is the wind and precip impacts
associated with the cold front moving through Sunday morning. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail through the valid TAF period.

SW winds will be around the 12 kt threshold this afternoon with
gusts pushing 20 kt. Should decouple after sundown but will hold
onto 7-9 kt through the night. Low-level jet will really get going
after midnight, with 30 kt WSW winds at 950mb. Will include LLWS in
at least SDF and LEX for the latter part of the night.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are a possibility toward
morning, but confidence is diminishing and probabilities are now too
low to mention in the TAFs.

Look for fropa mid to late morning, with winds coming around to
westerly. Gusts will be close to 20 kt at SDF and LEX with a
well-mixed boundary layer.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 201655
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accomodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thundestorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog should burn off quickly this morning.
Scattered cu bases in the low VFR range and slys will be the rule
today. Clouds increase late in the forecast as a front develops
and moves in from the northwest late tonight and Sunday. Rain
chances refrain this issuance but will likely enter the planning
phase of the forecast next issuance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201655
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accomodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thundestorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog should burn off quickly this morning.
Scattered cu bases in the low VFR range and slys will be the rule
today. Clouds increase late in the forecast as a front develops
and moves in from the northwest late tonight and Sunday. Rain
chances refrain this issuance but will likely enter the planning
phase of the forecast next issuance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201655
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accomodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thundestorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog should burn off quickly this morning.
Scattered cu bases in the low VFR range and slys will be the rule
today. Clouds increase late in the forecast as a front develops
and moves in from the northwest late tonight and Sunday. Rain
chances refrain this issuance but will likely enter the planning
phase of the forecast next issuance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith







000
FXUS63 KPAH 201655
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1155 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Quick update for the remainder of the first period (this
afternoon). Surface-based theta-e convergence and insolation
suggesting a corridor over southern Illinois, Southwest Indiana,
and the southeast corner of the West Kentucky Pennyrile region
suggest some limited shower coverage. A minor adjustment to
PoP/Weather grids to accomodate the precipitation potential this
afternoon. The activity should diminish with the loss of
insolation until forcing with the cold front approaches from the
northwest.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thundestorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog should burn off quickly this morning.
Scattered cu bases in the low VFR range and slys will be the rule
today. Clouds increase late in the forecast as a front develops
and moves in from the northwest late tonight and Sunday. Rain
chances refrain this issuance but will likely enter the planning
phase of the forecast next issuance.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Smith







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201456
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1056 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1040 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The Ohio Valley is getting a brief taste of summer before the
arrival of astronomical fall. High pressure retreating east of the
Delmarva is giving way to SSW return flow, with temps and dewpoints
accordingly on the rise.

Low-level moisture is already supporting a decent cu field over
central Kentucky. However, potential for deep convection is almost
nil due to strong mid-level capping around 750-700mb. There still
exists a potential for some very shallow showers in the heat of the
afternoon, so no changes to the going 20 POPs.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 201419
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF THE MID LEVEL AC HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND
EXPAND THE ISOLATED SHOWERS TO MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MID
LEVEL AC HAS A FEW VERTICAL TOWERS ALREADY SEEN FROM THE OFFICE. WITH
SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY...WE
SHOULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON. EVERYTHING SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLATED AND THUNDER DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A THREAT AS
INSTABILITY IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT IT. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER
CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A SME TO LOZ TO
JKL TO SJS LINE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO
IFR OR MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201153 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A SME TO LOZ TO
JKL TO SJS LINE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO
IFR OR MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201153 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A SME TO LOZ TO
JKL TO SJS LINE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO
IFR OR MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201153 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A SME TO LOZ TO
JKL TO SJS LINE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO
IFR OR MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 201153 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
753 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE TRENDS. THIS LED TO SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS TO START THE PERIOD. ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG
SHOULD BE LIFTING AND DISSIPATING SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY
DONE SO. WX GRIDS WERE UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AND AN UPDATED ZFP AND HWO
WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS
LATER TODAY REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THE NAM HAS BEEN THE MOST
INSISTENT ON ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES FOR TODAY WHILE THE RECENT HRRR
RUNS POINT TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE CWA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO HAD
ACTIVITY EARLIER IN THE MODEL RUN...BETWEEN 8Z AND PRESENT WHICH DID
NOT MATERIALIZE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE HIGHEST 3Z SREF POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 748 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM ANY LINGERING VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH
13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF A SME TO LOZ TO
JKL TO SJS LINE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY
AGAIN EXPERIENCE FOG BETWEEN 3Z AND 12Z WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO
IFR OR MVFR...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 201030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 201030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The region will be situated between high and low pressure today with
a cold front moving through tomorrow. Winds today will be out of the
south to south-southwest and will be in the 9-12 knot range from mid
morning through the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset
tonight but will pick up early tomorrow morning as the cold front
nears. Isolated showers may develop but coverage will be low and should
not have any impact on terminals, so will not mention it in the
TAFs. There will be a better chance for some showers at SDF around
12Z tomorrow. Scattered cu is expected to develop across the region
today.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200813
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
413 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

EARLY THIS MORNING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION WITH RIDGING EAST
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY WAS IN PLACE. ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS PRESENT. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
WERE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE NEAR THE MID
MS VALLEY REGION WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE NEARING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES EXTENDING FROM WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND DOWN
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. FURTHER NORTHWEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...THE LEAD WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL WORK
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
FALL IN THE OH VALLEY REGION WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHWESTERN US.
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US...A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BE CARVED OUT BY THE TWO MAIN SHORTWAVES AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TROUGH BEGINNING TO MERGE INTO IT. THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW WILL TRACK WELL NORTH OF KY...BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL WORK INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TONIGHT AND THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING INTO VA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 4 TO 7KFT RANGE HAVE DEVELOPED
OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. OUTSIDE OF THESE CLOUDS VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY STILL PRESENT AND MAY BE DENSE AT LEAST IN SOME SPOTS ALONG THE
RIVERS AND LARGER STREAMS AND LAKES. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LARGER
NEARER TO THE VA BORDER WHERE A DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS BEEN PRESENT WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AND OBSERVATIONS
SUPPORT ANY FOG BEING MUCH MORE LOCALIZED THERE. THIS FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO LIFT THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN DISSIPATE BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WHERE CLOUDS FORM THIS
FOG WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS WELL.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TOWARD THE
AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE 0Z NAM AND SOME OF THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HRRR ALSO
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. MOS GUIDANCE ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS DOES NOT HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND MODEL CONSENSUS
BLENDS GENERALLY STAYED BELOW SLIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER...WE OPTED TO
GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THESE WESTERN LOCATIONS FOR TODAY...WHICH
WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURROUNDING WFOS.

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHANCE DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AND THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THAT MATTER WILL COME AS THE TROUGH
BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THE COLD
FRONT ENTERS EASTERN KY. THIS COLD FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A BAND OF SCATTERED OR BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION AS IT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY DURING THE DAYTIME.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY REACH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TOWARD DAWN...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE COLD FRONT GENERALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME GUSTY
WINDS...PENDING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN T IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING MORE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAKER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN POWELL COUNTY AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS
VALLEY FOG AT PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE LIKING...BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY
AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN BE DENSE
GENERALLY ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ESPECIALLY RIVERS
AND LARGER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA SO OUTSIDE OF WHERE
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP THERE TOWARD DAWN.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM...SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND SOME PRIOR BUT NOT
THE MOST RECENT RAP RUN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SCHEDULED MORNING FORECAST RELEASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200725
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN T IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING MORE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAKER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN POWELL COUNTY AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS
VALLEY FOG AT PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE LIKING...BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY
AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN BE DENSE
GENERALLY ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ESPECIALLY RIVERS
AND LARGER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA SO OUTSIDE OF WHERE
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP THERE TOWARD DAWN.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM...SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND SOME PRIOR BUT NOT
THE MOST RECENT RAP RUN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SCHEDULED MORNING FORECAST RELEASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE REGION AS OF 0Z MONDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE ENDING TIME
OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NW EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY 0Z...AND FINALLY THE SE JUST AFTER 6Z MONDAY. LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL INSTABILITY FOR THE
PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...QUICKLY DISSIPATING AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING...AND ONCE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PASSED. AS
SUCH...THUNDER WAS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST PAST 0Z...AND HAS
ALSO BEEN INCLUDED BY SURROUNDING OFFICES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING. DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO YANK MENTION OF THUNDER
COMPLETELY AT 0Z...SO KEPT MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER WITH
CHANCE POPS THROUGH 3Z...WHICH CONSEQUENTLY IS ABOUT THE SAME TIME
CHANCE POPS EXIT THE REGION ANYWAYS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD
FOG EVENT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OR PERHAPS A LOW STRATUS EVENT. THE
EXTENT OF EITHER OF THESE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. DECIDED TO
INCREASE CLOUDS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT
DID NOT MENTION FOG AT THIS TIME.

AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY WILL FIND
ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN...WITH
STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO THE REGION. AS
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT TO
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AIRMASS MODIFICATION...NAMELY THE LESSENING OF
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT/NW FLOW AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TAKES FULL
CONTROL...WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS
HIT ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK AGAIN UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE...WITH SUCH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN CONTROL...THERE WILL BE
LITTLE CONCERN FOR CLOUDS...LET ALONE PRECIP CHANCES. ALL IN ALL IT
LOOKS TO BE A GORGEOUS AUTUMN-LIKE WEEK AHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

The area will be in between high pressure to the northeast and low
pressure to the northwest today. Winds will be out of the south to
southwest through the day, ushering in warmer and more moist air. Most
of the models this morning suggest that weak isentropic lift will be
enough to help a few showers develop this morning and afternoon
across, mainly central Kentucky. Went ahead and added in very low
chance pops for today to cover this. With the warm air advection
today, highs will reach into the lower to mid 80s.

The aforementioned low pressure system will track northeast along
the US-Canadian border through the remainder of the period. A cold
front associated with this system will approach tonight and move
through the area during the day on Sunday. Any showers that develop
today look to dissipate by around 00Z. The next round of showers and
possibly storms ahead of the front will move into southern Indiana
after midnight. These look to weaken and dissipate as they head
towards the Ohio River. Models then do suggest some redevelopment
across south and east central Kentucky during the afternoon Sunday.
Thus there is the possibility that some of the region may get gapped
with this system.

Temperatures will remain mild tonight with lows in the middle to
upper 60s. Highs tomorrow will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s
before the colder and drier air behind the front moves in late
tomorrow afternoon into the evening hours.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

Large high pressure over the Central Plains will be filtering into
the region Sunday night, in the wake of a cold front that may leave
some lingering light rain showers into the evening, mainly across
our southeastern counties. The axis of an upper trough will swing
through late Sunday night, allowing for much lower thicknesses
across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures Monday should rise only to
around 70, even as skies clear out.

That surface high will be centered over the IN/OH/KY region Tuesday
morning, meaning light winds through the night and more ideal
radiational cooling. Lows should dip into the 40s for most places.

The rest of the period should be quiet with a steady warm up. The
surface high will shift east and get reinforced by another high over
SE Canada. A weakness in that ridge may allow an inverted trough to
set up over the Appalachians from the middle of the week on, but
this trough should only serve as the focus for some clouds. Ridging
aloft should keep us dry. By Friday, lows should be in the 50s with
highs around 80.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........RJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KPAH 200609
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
109 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thundestorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog should burn off quickly this morning.
Scattered cu bases in the low VFR range and slys will be the rule
today. Clouds increase late in the forecast as a front develops
and moves in from the northwest late tonight and Sunday. Rain
chances refrain this issuance but will likely enter the planning
phase of the forecast next issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KPAH 200609
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
109 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A summer like day is on tap today to start the weekend, with
temperatures warming nicely thru the 80s in advance of a
developing weather system to our north and west. This front will
sweep into the area later tonight and make passage on Sunday,
bringing with it a chance or even good chance of rain, in the form
of showers and thundestorms.

After passage, temperatures look to cool back to more seasonal
early autumn like level to start the ensuing workweek.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

High pressure over the eastern U.S. will be the dominant weather
feature through the period. Additionally, a prominent ridge at 700mb
coupled with a persistent, dry air mass locked in over the area
means dry weather with temperatures near to slightly above normal.
Not much in the way of cloud cover.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 105 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

Patchy pre dawn fog should burn off quickly this morning.
Scattered cu bases in the low VFR range and slys will be the rule
today. Clouds increase late in the forecast as a front develops
and moves in from the northwest late tonight and Sunday. Rain
chances refrain this issuance but will likely enter the planning
phase of the forecast next issuance.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200555 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THIS LED TO SLIGHTLY COLDER MIN T IN A COUPLE OF SPOTS ACROSS
THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING MORE FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WAS WEAKER. WE HAVE RECEIVED A SPOTTER REPORT OF DENSE FOG
NEAR THE RED RIVER IN POWELL COUNTY AND 11-3.9 SAT IMAGERY SUPPORTS
VALLEY FOG AT PRESENT IN PARTS OF THE LIKING...BIG SANDY...KENTUCKY
AND RED RIVER VALLEYS. SOME OF THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN BE DENSE
GENERALLY ALONG THE LARGER CREEKS AND STREAMS AND ESPECIALLY RIVERS
AND LARGER LAKES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO RELAX A BIT
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA SO OUTSIDE OF WHERE
SOME CLOUDS DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR...VALLEY FOG SHOULD ALSO
DEVELOP THERE TOWARD DAWN.

SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH...BUT IT DOES HAVE SUPPORT
FROM THE NAM...SOME OF THE RECENT HRRR RUNS AND SOME PRIOR BUT NOT
THE MOST RECENT RAP RUN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS POTENTIAL
FOR THE SCHEDULED MORNING FORECAST RELEASE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

ASIDE FROM VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING...AND THEN LIFTING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
DURING THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FOG IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW ITS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP
VALLEYS AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
BEGIN TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN...SUCH AS MVFR AT
SJS IF WINDS SLACKEN AND POSSIBLY MVFR AT SME WHERE THE CURRENT
DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS LOW BUT THERE ARE SCT CLOUDS AS WELL. THE
LARGER RECENT OBSERVED DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF 7 AT LOZ POINTS TOWARD
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS BEING IN THE VFR RANGE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200500
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued AT 1159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high pressure
will result in the persistence of VFR conditions at all forecast
terminals through the period. Light and variable winds overnight
will pick up out of the south AOB 10 knots after 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 200500
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued AT 1159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Revised aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high pressure
will result in the persistence of VFR conditions at all forecast
terminals through the period. Light and variable winds overnight
will pick up out of the south AOB 10 knots after 14Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RJP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 200446
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200446
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200446
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 200446
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1246 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Cirrus is
streaming across the region tonight. However, some lower cloud
around 5 kft have developed across central TN and the models
continue to suggest a scattered to broken deck developing across
central KY over the next few hours. Given we are only seeing high
clouds now, will keep the low clouds scattered. Winds will remain
light overnight and will shift to SSW at all sites by morning.
Scattered cu is expected through the day. Winds will increase to
9-12 knots from mid morning through the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 200229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 200229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 200227
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 200142
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
942 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 940 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Only made minor changes to hourly forecast grids based on current
conditions.  Of note...some of the 18Z models are indicating an area
of isld showers may develop along the Ohio River due to weak
isentropic lift after sunrise.  Will not add POPs at this time, but
it may be worth considering if 0Z runs indicate the same.  Otherwise
expect a mostly clear night with some strato-cu developing late.
Low temps will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period as we enter return flow
on the back side of departing high pressure.  A few things of note
to watch though.  First of all, models keep hinting at the
development of a strato-cu deck over TN late tonight that may advect
into our area from the south.  If this happens, a cig between 3-4
kft may become established at the TAF sites during the early morning
hours.  Have remained optimistic with a sct deck at this time
though.  Also, a LLJ of around 30 kts is progged to develop late
tonight which may cause borderline LLWS.  Felt that this threat was
too minimal to include in the TAFs at this time.

Sfc winds should remain ESE through the night decreasing to around
or below 5 kts after sunset.  Winds will veer more SSW for tomorrow
afternoon increasing to 8-12 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....JSD
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 192329
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 192323
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
723 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms may develop to our north late Saturday.
However, this boundary will be crossing the Ohio during the morning
hours, with little surface-based instability present. Scattered
convection over southern Indiana very early Sunday will likely be
weakening. The NAM especially hints at a possible re-development of
convection along our southern counties during the afternoon hours
right before the cold front clears the state. Think that the best
chances of any substantial precipitation will be north across
central and possibly southern Indiana, and to our south along our
Ky/Tn border. Highs Sunday will range from the lower 80s south to
the mid 70s north.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 720 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected this TAF period as we enter return flow
on the back side of departing high pressure.  A few things of note
to watch though.  First of all, models keep hinting at the
development of a strato-cu deck over TN late tonight that may advect
into our area from the south.  If this happens, a cig between 3-4
kft may become established at the TAF sites during the early morning
hours.  Have remained optimistic with a sct deck at this time
though.  Also, a LLJ of around 30 kts is progged to develop late
tonight which may cause borderline LLWS.  Felt that this threat was
too minimal to include in the TAFs at this time.

Sfc winds should remain ESE through the night decreasing to around
or below 5 kts after sunset.  Winds will veer more SSW for tomorrow
afternoon increasing to 8-12 kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 191922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 191922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 191922
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 191907
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191907
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191901
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191901
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191901
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191901
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
201 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Still not much to discuss in the short term. Departing high pressure
at the surface and ridging aloft will keep most, if not all the
region, dry through Saturday.

The only fly in the ointment on Saturday is a small possibility of
showers and thunderstorms generally over the Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky. Southerly flow around the departing high will
begin to pull Gulf moisture back into the southeast sections of the
CWA Saturday morning. Soundings in these areas Saturday afternoon
indicate plenty of instability with little to no inhibition.
Limiting factors will be weak speed and directional wind shear and
lack of deep moisture. Above 850 MB forecast soundings are fairly
dry.

Saturday night the approach of a short wave will flatten the upper
ridge allowing for the approach and passage of a cold front. Showers
and thunderstorm are expected to develop generally along and ahead
of the front starting late Saturday night and continuing into
Sunday. With each run models have become less and less excited with
precipitation coverage, QPF, etc. associated with the fropa. At this
time it appears the fropa will be uneventful for the most part.

By Sunday night all precipitation should be south and east of our
CWA as a cooler and drier airmass overspreads the region.

Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through Sunday,
then begin to drop back to below normal in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

High confidence in the extended.

Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of this
weekends storm system. By early in the work week high pressure aloft
takes control of the weather. This should result in a dry forecast
for the week. Also winds will be northerly or have a northerly
component becoming more easterly by mid week. This should provide
very low humidity with temperatures falling slightly below normal
early in the week and slowly warm to near normal mid to late week.
A very uneventful forecast next week with comfortable temperatures
and humidity for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191900
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridging currently centered over New England extends
southwest along the Ohio River through Missouri. This ridge has
brought quite dry easterly winds to the Commonwealth and pristine,
almost cloud-free skies that will likely continue at least through
the evening hours.

Winds will veer to the south tonight and to the south southwest
Saturday as return flow sets up as this ridge axis sags southwards
into the Tennessee Valley. Skies will initially stay clear this
evening, but forecast soundings hint at a possibility of some
strato-cu developing and advecting north during the early morning
hours tomorrow. Despite south winds Saturday, deep moisture will not
really arrive until late afternoon or during the evening.
Temperatures early tomorrow will only fall into the upper 50s to the
lower 60s. Expect a warm day Saturday under partly cloudy skies with
highs reaching the lower 80s. Indeed, Saturday will be our warmest
day in well over a week.

A quick moving disturbance moving along the U.S - Canadian border
will amplify a bit as it cross the western Great Lakes Sunday
morning. By late Sunday, this feature will move across western New
England. Both the NAM and the GFS bring its associated cold front
south of the Ohio River during the late morning hours Sunday.

Scattered showers and storms will develop to our north Saturday,
possibly as one or more lines of storms. However, this convection
will be weakening as it outruns better forcing and instability as it
approaches southern Indiana early Sunday morning. Temperatures
will stay quite warm Saturday night, only falling into the mid to
upper 60s as southerly surface winds will stay up.


.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Sunday - Sunday Night...

The only rain chances in the long term will occur on Sunday as a
trough swings through the Great Lakes region, and the trailing cold
front slides through our CWA. Will continue to mention scattered
coverage of showers and a few storms along and ahead of this front
during the day. Deep moisture ahead of the front isn`t impressive
enough to warrant higher coverage. There has been a considerable
trend toward faster timing over the past 24 hours, so will actually
go dry for the Sunday night timeframe. Temperatures will be a bit
tricky on Sunday due to the frontal passage, however most spots
should find their way to the upper 70s to around 80.

Monday - Friday...

Surface high pressure will settle into the region on Monday behind
the departing front. Meanwhile, the departing upper trough axis will
push east. This will bring a cool down along with some developing
stratocu. Highs will only top out in the upper 60s and low 70s.
Monday night will bring lows into the 45-50 range.

We`ll be under the influence of an expansive upper level ridge and
surface high pressure Tuesday through Friday. Dry conditions will
persist with temperatures slowly trending back toward the 80 degree
mark by Thursday and Friday. After Tuesday night in the upper 40s to
around 50, overnight lows will mainly range in the mid 50s for the
remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JSD
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 191737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191737
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF
VALLEY FOG. AT THIS TIME...MINIMAL IMPACT IS EXPECTED AT THE TAF
SITES FROM THIS FOG...BUT IF THE FOG ENDS UP BEING A BIT MORE
ROBUST...SOME IMPACTS COULD BE FELT LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG WILL BURN
OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...KAS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191726
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
126 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.


.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 115 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2014

No inclement weather is expected for the upcoming TAF period. High
pressure will move east towards the mid-Atlantic states. East winds
of 5 to 9kt this afternoon will veer southerly and lessen to around
5kt by morning. By Saturday afternoon, south southwest winds will
increase to around 7 to 10kts.

Clear skies will continue through the early morning hours Saturday.
Forecast soundings hint at the development of scattered to possibly
even broken strato-cu above the MVFR threshold during the pre-dawn
hours on Saturday. Partly cloudy skies and VFR conditions are
anticipated for Saturday.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191718
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191718
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191718
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191718
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

With the exception of MVFR fog at KCGI between 08-12Z, high
pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Easterly winds AOB 5 knots will either go calm or light
and variable after 01Z, then pick up out of the south AOB 6 knots
after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191608
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191608
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191608
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......






000
FXUS63 KLMK 191608
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1208 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 1200 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Made little change to the forecast for the late morning update.
Forecast soundings show very little or no fair weather cumulus
developing this afternoon, ensuring that today will stay practically
cloud free. East winds will continue through the afternoon, at
around 6 to 9 mph. Expect a clear night with winds backing to light
southerly by morning, temperatures early Saturday will run several
degrees warmer that those of earlier today.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......EER
Aviation.......






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL IS QUIET THIS MORNING WITH A BEAUTIFUL MORNING ONGOING. LAST OF
THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES EXCEPT TO REFINE PRECIPITATION CHANCES BASED ON LATEST HI RES
MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS WAS ONLY TO TRIM SOME AREAS OUT OF THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS ON
TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KPAH 191157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
656 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 656 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through
tonight. Winds will be light through the period. East northeast
winds today will gradually veer to southeast tonight. Some
scattered 4-6kft clouds will linger in the vicinity of KCGI and
KPAH through the period. IFR fog at the beginning of the period at
KCGI will dissipate by 14Z. Figure there will be enough wind to
keep fog out of the forecast late tonight. Some guidance is
advertising lower VFR ceilings pushing northwest toward the
terminals late tonight. This would be most likely at KOWB and KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 191157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
656 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 656 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through
tonight. Winds will be light through the period. East northeast
winds today will gradually veer to southeast tonight. Some
scattered 4-6kft clouds will linger in the vicinity of KCGI and
KPAH through the period. IFR fog at the beginning of the period at
KCGI will dissipate by 14Z. Figure there will be enough wind to
keep fog out of the forecast late tonight. Some guidance is
advertising lower VFR ceilings pushing northwest toward the
terminals late tonight. This would be most likely at KOWB and KPAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 191145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 191145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
OBSERVATIONS. THIS LED TO VERY LITTLE CHANGE...JUST A FRESHENING UP
OF THE HOURLY TEMP AND DEWPOINT CURVES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
VALLEY FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES HAS LIKELY
ALREADY BEGUN TO LIFT AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 9 AM. THE 6Z
GFS AND NAM SUGGESTED THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY SHOWER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEAR THE VA OR WV BORDER. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO
INDICATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER FROM HARLAN
COUNTY NORTHEAST TO PIKE COUNTY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NEXT TIER OF
COUNTIES TO THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM MAINLY VALLEY FOG LIFTING AND DISSIPATING THROUGH ABOUT 13Z...
VFR SHOULD PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE
EXCEPTIONS TO THIS IS THE IFR OR MVFR FOG IN A FEW SPOTS INITIALLY
IMPROVING TO VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP BETWEEN
17Z AND 23Z...AND MAINLY VALLEY FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE MVFR OR
IFR IS POSSIBLE. FOR THE FOG LATE IN THE PERIOD...SJS AND SME APPEAR
TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF DROPPING TO IFR AMONG THE TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 191046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 191046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 191046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 191046
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
646 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

High pressure moving from the Great Lakes into southern New England
will provide VFR conditions across the region.  Mostly sunny skies
and a light northeasterly to easterly surface wind will be seen at
the terminals this morning through the afternoon hours.  VFR
conditions will continue into the evening and overnight hours with
winds shifting more to the south as the night wears on.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KPAH 190841
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
341 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A weak surface trough will push north and west into the region
today. This will allow light northeast winds to veer to east
southeast today and eventually southeast tonight. Some IFR fog may
periodically impact KCGI early this morning. With increasing
moisture and light winds expected late tonight, some patchy IFR or
lower fog will be possible, mainly at KCGI, but possibly at KPAH,
too. A few cu will be possible across the area today. Some lower
VFR ceilings may impact KOWB late tonight, as the low-level
moisture increases from the southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 190841
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
341 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A weak surface trough will push north and west into the region
today. This will allow light northeast winds to veer to east
southeast today and eventually southeast tonight. Some IFR fog may
periodically impact KCGI early this morning. With increasing
moisture and light winds expected late tonight, some patchy IFR or
lower fog will be possible, mainly at KCGI, but possibly at KPAH,
too. A few cu will be possible across the area today. Some lower
VFR ceilings may impact KOWB late tonight, as the low-level
moisture increases from the southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 190841
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
341 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A weak surface trough will push north and west into the region
today. This will allow light northeast winds to veer to east
southeast today and eventually southeast tonight. Some IFR fog may
periodically impact KCGI early this morning. With increasing
moisture and light winds expected late tonight, some patchy IFR or
lower fog will be possible, mainly at KCGI, but possibly at KPAH,
too. A few cu will be possible across the area today. Some lower
VFR ceilings may impact KOWB late tonight, as the low-level
moisture increases from the southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KPAH 190841
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
341 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A light northeast wind and some at least scattered 5-6kft clouds
are helping to keep fog development at bay through 08Z. KCGI and
KMDH have seen visibilities drop to IFR levels periodically since
midnight, but figure if dense fog develops it will be very
localized and likely short-lived. Have no plans for a Special
Weather Statement or mention in the HWO at this time, but will
continue to monitor.

The 00Z models are in agreement that high pressure will dominate
at the surface and aloft today and tonight. There will be a minor
trough at the surface that will lift north and west late today and
tonight on the periphery of the larger-scale high. This will lead
to an increase in low-level moisture, at least in the southern
half of the area.

The models have trended a bit more humid for Saturday, with
dewpoints climbing into the middle and upper 60s ahead of the cold
front. They also continue to keep the cold front well north of the
area through the day, and there should not be much more than some
cu through the day. The lone exception, if the NAM and NMM WRF are
correct, is some isolated convection in a zone from KPAH to near
KEVV and KOWB in the afternoon. NAM soundings show significant
CAPE, over 3000J/Kg, with steep low-level lapse rates and a lot of
dry air in the mid and upper levels. Wind fields are weak, but
some pulsy storms may be able to produce some wind gusts 40kts or
more in this environment, if a storm can develop. Inserted a
slight chance PoP for this possibility. Some of this activity
may linger into the evening, but convection associated with the
cold front is not likely to reach the area until after midnight,
if at all.

The trend for this system is definitely progressive and drier,
with convection generally traversing the area from 06Z-18Z Sunday.
The NAM holds up the front just a bit, and generates a nice area
of convection in the afternoon from the Bootheel through much of
west Kentucky. Given the sharp, amplified mid/upper systems
accompanying the front in the 12Z GFS and ECMWF, really cannot see
the front hanging up. That said, will not cut the PoPs too fine on
Sunday, and just keep one 12-hour PoP for the whole day. PoPs are
generally 30-40% with the best PoPs over the Evansville Tri State
in the overnight hours and early Sunday. There just is not enough
low-level moisture for this system to work with. None of the
models is currently bringing any of the tropical remnants into the
region, so locally heavy rainfall is not that much of a concern
either.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

Surface high pressure will build across the region Sunday night
and Monday in the wake of the weekend storm system. There is some
minor discrepancy between the GFS and ECMWF in how much cold
advection will occur with the northerly winds through Monday. The
GFS is warmer, and that seems reasonable, given the rather short
period of significant advections into the region.

Both models begin to build a ridge of high pressure aloft over the
region as early as Monday afternoon. This will result in high
pressure at the surface and aloft that will persist through the
work week. Look for temperatures to drop just a bit below normal
Monday and possibly Tuesday, but highs should be back into the 80s
for Wednesday through the remainder of the week. Would expect the
forecast to trend warmer with time for the early part of the week,
and possibly through the entire week. There will be a very dry
airmass in place, so guidance may be under-estimating the diurnal
range through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 340 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A weak surface trough will push north and west into the region
today. This will allow light northeast winds to veer to east
southeast today and eventually southeast tonight. Some IFR fog may
periodically impact KCGI early this morning. With increasing
moisture and light winds expected late tonight, some patchy IFR or
lower fog will be possible, mainly at KCGI, but possibly at KPAH,
too. A few cu will be possible across the area today. Some lower
VFR ceilings may impact KOWB late tonight, as the low-level
moisture increases from the southeast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190807
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
407 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THROUGH TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. MEANWHILE A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WORKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER QUEBEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TO NEAR
CAPE COD THIS EVENING AND THEN OFF THE NORTHEAST US COAST TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST...AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND THEN SHIFT WEST AND
WEAKEN TONIGHT. TO THE EAST OF THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS...A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THIS SFC
HIGH INTO THE APPALACHIANS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT...RATHER BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR THE
VA BORDER.

ON SATURDAY THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE LOWER OH VALLEY AS THE RIDGE RETREATS WEST AND
BUILDS TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
APPROACH THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ONCE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES...A GENERAL WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS TO THE EAST. SOME
MOISTURE SHOULD BE DRAWN WEST AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH LEADING TO
CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA FORM MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THIS MAY BECOME DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS BELOW THE MID LEVEL CAP. THE NAM IS GENERALLY THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS AMONG THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE END OF THE
THE 5Z HRRR RUN GENERALLY KEEPS THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE REGION
THROUGH 20Z.

DIURNAL CU SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...BUT MODELS KEEP THE LAYER
NEAR 800 TO 850 MB RATHER MOIST TONIGHT. SOME STRATOCU NEAR THE LEVEL
WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. PATCHY VALLEY FOG SHOULD STILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE VA BORDER COUNTIES. MEANWHILE
DURING THE EVENING WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS HIGHEST NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EXPOSED RIDGETOPS SUCH AS THE
FLATWOODS AREA OF PIKE COUNTY...PORTIONS OF THE CREST OF PINE
MOUNTAINS AND BLACK MOUNTAINS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS...WITH VALLEYS FURTHER NORTHWEST LIKELY DECOUPLED. HIGHER
ANTICIPATED DEWPOINTS...A LARGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW CLOUDS SHOULD BRING WARMER MIN T TONIGHT. SOUTH TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN...MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE
LOW TO MID 80S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 190720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 190720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 190720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 190720
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Morning IR and surface observations show clear skies across southern
Indiana and central Kentucky this morning.  Temperatures ranged from
the upper 40s to the lower 50s in the north with middle to upper 50s
across the south.  We expect clear skies to continue with a light
northeasterly wind. The surface winds are expected to remain
elevated enough to keep fog production minimized.  Some valley fog
will still be possible, but it looks to remain limited.

Sprawling high pressure will move into southern New England today
and result in another mostly sunny and mild day across the Ohio
Valley.  A look at the last 5 days of model verification statistic
shows that the model output is still exhibiting a warm bias of 2-3
degrees on daily maximum temperatures.  With that said, have gone
below guidance again with afternoon temperatures warming into the
upper 70s across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky.  Upper 70s
to around 80 will be possible down across southern KY.

For tonight, winds are expected to shift more to the south and
southwest which will set the stage for return flow.  This should
keep temperatures mild again with dewpoints slowly rising throughout
the night and into Saturday morning.  Overnight lows will not be as
cool with middle-upper 50s across southern Indiana and northern
Kentucky and mainly lower 60s across southern Kentucky.

Saturday will feature a continued southwesterly wind flow on the
back side of a departing high pressure system.  However, a moist
mid-level flow and warm air advection scheme will likely result in
mid-high level cloudiness streaming into the region from the
southwest.  While model data suggests highs warming into the middle
80s, we continue to take into account the warm biases of late.
Therefore, will be undercutting the guidance by a few degrees.
Afternoon highs will likely run into the upper 70s to the lower 80s
across southern Indiana and into the lower 80s across southern KY.
We could potentially see a stronger gradient of
temperature...especially to our southwest where mid-upper 80s are
not out of the question...especially if less clouds develop than
forecast.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

The long term will begin with an upper level trough dropping into
the Great Lakes region. An associated surface low will remain just
north of the US/Canada border as it pulls off to the northeast
through the weekend. This will swing a cold front through during the
day on Sunday.

The latest model runs have sped this system up quite a bit. The
latest guidance suggests rain will begin to enter the forecast area
late Saturday night and may spread into central Kentucky by daybreak
on Sunday. The front looks to clear the forecast area by Sunday
evening with most of the rain exiting by 00Z Monday. Will keep a few
showers in the far east Sunday evening, but this period may actually
be dry. Temperatures will be a bit tricky with the rain chances and
front moving through. For now will go with highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front and will drift
across the region and move off to the east through the remainder of
the long term. Aloft a ridge will build across the area from Tuesday
on. This will result in a dry forecast. After a big cool down on
Monday, temperatures will gradually warm through the week. Monday`s
highs will be in the lower 70s while upper 70s to lower 80s can be
expected by Thursday. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These will warm to the middle 50s by Friday morning.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 190707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OFF ON 0Z SUNDAY WITH A DEEPENING
TROUGH IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY
MORNING...QUICKLY PUSHING LOWERING HEIGHTS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SE TOWARDS KY AS WELL...AND REACH THE OHIO RIVER JUST
AFTER 0Z SUNDAY. MODELS ARE FINALLY COMING INTO A MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR TIMING OF THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT...WITH
POPS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF THE CWA AS EARLY AS 12Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINING CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXITING SE OF THE REGION BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z MONDAY.
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL ONLY SUPPORTING MARGINAL
INSTABILITY FOR THE PRECIP ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT...THOUGH IT HAS
IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FROM RUN TO RUN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT IDEA FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AROUND AND JUST AFTER 18Z...THEN
DROPPING OFF QUICKLY AS A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SETS UP AFTER 0Z
MONDAY AND WINDS QUICKLY TURN MORE NRLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS LEADING UP TO THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING ENOUGH
WAA TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK FOR DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE FRONT QUICKLY DEPARTS SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT...KY
WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
PATTERN...WITH STRONG NW FLOW BRINGING MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIR INTO
THE REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD...DRY AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL. YET HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO
THE LOW 70S THANKS TO THIS CANADIAN AIR MASS. TUESDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FINALLY MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND
LESSONS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT/STRONGEST NWRLY WINDS. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL SLOWLY ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...HOWEVER WE LIKELY WON/T SEE TEMPS HIT
ABOVE THE 80 DEGREE MARK UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190551 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190551 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
151 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HOURLY GRIDS...SKY COVER...AS WELL AS WEATHER GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE AND OBSERVATION TRENDS. THIS GENERALLY
KEEPS MOST OF THE FOG OVERNIGHT ALONG OR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MTN
PARKWAY CORRIDOR. ALSO...SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS WERE RUNNING A DEGREE
OR TWO COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF SPOTS
ALREADY NEAR THEIR FORECAST MINS. OPTED TO LOWER MIN T A DEGREE OR
TWO IN SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM GENERALLY VALLEY FOG THAT MAY LIFT ONTO SOME OF THE
ADJACENT RIDGETOP LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BIG SANDY REGION.
SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE PATCHY DENSE AND VI`S BELOW AIRPORT MI NS IS
POSSIBLE AT SJS. OTHERWISE...FOG SHOULD BE MVFR OR VFR AT THE TAF
SITES DURING THE 8Z TO 13Z PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THIS VFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 16Z AND
22Z ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
A LOZ TO JKL TO SJS LINE. WHERE THESE SHOWERS OCCUR...BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
118 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued 935 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Updated the forecast to refresh hourly grids with obs.  Overall the
forecast looks fine with a dry, cool night ahead.  Expect mostly
clear skies with low temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

A tranquil and mild weather pattern will continue to finish out the
work week. Easterly low-level gradient has become more pronounced
today with high pressure over northern Michigan, and will keep the
boundary layer just mixy enough the next couple of nights that fog
will not be a concern. That leaves us with a temp forecast, and we
expect to see a gradual moderating trend as the surface high
retreats into New England, and the upper pattern becomes more zonal.
Given recent trends where much of the guidance has been too warm and
the NAM MOS has performed fairly well, will again lean on the low
end of the guidance envelope. Should see a decent spread in temps
tonight between the Louisville heat island and the cooler valleys,
but developing return flow Friday night should be just enough to
keep temps a bit more uniform.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The long term will begin with southerly flow and warmer temperatures
as high pressure over New England slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and rise into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon. This
will be the warmest day of the long term.

An upper level trough and surface low will move across the
northeastern CONUS through the second half of the weekend and into
the early work week. This will drag a cold front through on Sunday
into Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves through. There may be a few storms
pre-dawn Sunday in southern Indiana. Rain chances will increase
through the morning as the front moves through. The best chance
looks to be in the afternoon as temps warm and the region becomes
somewhat unstable. Rain should end by Monday morning with clouds
clearing out by mid day. Temperatures will fall through this period.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s while Monday`s
highs are expected to reach only in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will
fall from the 60s to the 50s.

Monday - Thursday...

High pressure will build in at the surface behind the front. Aloft
an upper level trough will be replaced by ridging by midweek.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the lower 70s (possibly 60s)
and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will then see a gradual
warming trend the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals for the remainder of
overnight period.  Light northeasterly winds are expected to stay up
overnight preventing widespread fog formation.  However, can`t rule
out some patchy fog in the typical low-lying and fog prone locations
towards sunrise.  VFR conditions are expected during the day on
Friday with a light easterly wind.  Winds should shift more to the
southeast during the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 190203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 190203
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

FORECAST WAS ON TRACK. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO WINDS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKY COVER HAS DECREASED MORE THAN WAS FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AND
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR REDUCED SKY COVER TONIGHT. SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
QUICKLY...AND HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE THIS INTO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRAVERSE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING UP A PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO WARM HEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
WARMER WEATHER COMBINED WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW
THE INVERSION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY COULD AID IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BY ALL MEANS ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL BE VERY HIT OR MISS WITH MOST AREAS STAYING DRY. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD SETTLE BELOW LAST NIGHTS TEMPERATURES GIVEN BETTER CLEARING
TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE A BETTER REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AS
HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 80S
TOMORROW. GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES TOMORROW...LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL ALSO TURN A BIT MILDER AS DEW POINTS CLIMB HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH TO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA LATE SUNDAY. BEHIND
IT A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE
REGION. MODELS DO DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BUT THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO WASH
OUT AS IT APPROACHES OUR AREA...AND IN A BACK DOOR FASHION. THIS
SECOND FRONTAL ZONE...OR MORE PROPERLY THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BEHIND IT ACTS MORE TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS AS THE AIR MASSES
MERGE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IF ANY WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND BOUNDARY OTHER THAN SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER.

FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO TALK ABOUT THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHEN THE WEATHER LOOKS SO SPECTACULAR NEXT WEEK. WITH
RESPECT TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...SUNDAYS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH TO WARRANT THUNDER BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL
ATTM. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. IN GENERAL OUR WEATHER WILL
BE FAIR WITH PLEASANTLY WARM 70S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS AND CHILLY...
SEASONALLY APPROPRIATE 50S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. PERFECT WEATHER...
CAMPING ANYONE?

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 709 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...HAL








000
FXUS63 KLMK 190139
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
939 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 935 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Updated the forecast to refresh hourly grids with obs.  Overall the
forecast looks fine with a dry, cool night ahead.  Expect mostly
clear skies with low temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

A tranquil and mild weather pattern will continue to finish out the
work week. Easterly low-level gradient has become more pronounced
today with high pressure over northern Michigan, and will keep the
boundary layer just mixy enough the next couple of nights that fog
will not be a concern. That leaves us with a temp forecast, and we
expect to see a gradual moderating trend as the surface high
retreats into New England, and the upper pattern becomes more zonal.
Given recent trends where much of the guidance has been too warm and
the NAM MOS has performed fairly well, will again lean on the low
end of the guidance envelope. Should see a decent spread in temps
tonight between the Louisville heat island and the cooler valleys,
but developing return flow Friday night should be just enough to
keep temps a bit more uniform.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The long term will begin with southerly flow and warmer temperatures
as high pressure over New England slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and rise into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon. This
will be the warmest day of the long term.

An upper level trough and surface low will move across the
northeastern CONUS through the second half of the weekend and into
the early work week. This will drag a cold front through on Sunday
into Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves through. There may be a few storms
pre-dawn Sunday in southern Indiana. Rain chances will increase
through the morning as the front moves through. The best chance
looks to be in the afternoon as temps warm and the region becomes
somewhat unstable. Rain should end by Monday morning with clouds
clearing out by mid day. Temperatures will fall through this period.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s while Monday`s
highs are expected to reach only in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will
fall from the 60s to the 50s.

Monday - Thursday...

High pressure will build in at the surface behind the front. Aloft
an upper level trough will be replaced by ridging by midweek.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the lower 70s (possibly 60s)
and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will then see a gradual
warming trend the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period with sfc high
pressure controlling the region.  The latest model guidance
indicates a weak LLJ around BWG around sunrise which should provide
enough mixiness to prevent fog formation.  NE winds have stayed up
this evening as well causing a light dry air advection.  NE winds
will decrease to 3-5 kts overnight, then become more easterly for
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 190139
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
939 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 935 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Updated the forecast to refresh hourly grids with obs.  Overall the
forecast looks fine with a dry, cool night ahead.  Expect mostly
clear skies with low temps in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

A tranquil and mild weather pattern will continue to finish out the
work week. Easterly low-level gradient has become more pronounced
today with high pressure over northern Michigan, and will keep the
boundary layer just mixy enough the next couple of nights that fog
will not be a concern. That leaves us with a temp forecast, and we
expect to see a gradual moderating trend as the surface high
retreats into New England, and the upper pattern becomes more zonal.
Given recent trends where much of the guidance has been too warm and
the NAM MOS has performed fairly well, will again lean on the low
end of the guidance envelope. Should see a decent spread in temps
tonight between the Louisville heat island and the cooler valleys,
but developing return flow Friday night should be just enough to
keep temps a bit more uniform.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

Saturday - Sunday Night...

The long term will begin with southerly flow and warmer temperatures
as high pressure over New England slowly shifts to the east.
Temperatures on Saturday morning will start out in the upper 50s to
lower 60s and rise into the lower to mid 80s by the afternoon. This
will be the warmest day of the long term.

An upper level trough and surface low will move across the
northeastern CONUS through the second half of the weekend and into
the early work week. This will drag a cold front through on Sunday
into Sunday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
accompany the front as it moves through. There may be a few storms
pre-dawn Sunday in southern Indiana. Rain chances will increase
through the morning as the front moves through. The best chance
looks to be in the afternoon as temps warm and the region becomes
somewhat unstable. Rain should end by Monday morning with clouds
clearing out by mid day. Temperatures will fall through this period.
Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s while Monday`s
highs are expected to reach only in the lower to mid 70s. Lows will
fall from the 60s to the 50s.

Monday - Thursday...

High pressure will build in at the surface behind the front. Aloft
an upper level trough will be replaced by ridging by midweek.
Tuesday will remain cool with highs in the lower 70s (possibly 60s)
and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. We will then see a gradual
warming trend the next couple of days.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2014

VFR conditions are forecast for this TAF period with sfc high
pressure controlling the region.  The latest model guidance
indicates a weak LLJ around BWG around sunrise which should provide
enough mixiness to prevent fog formation.  NE winds have stayed up
this evening as well causing a light dry air advection.  NE winds
will decrease to 3-5 kts overnight, then become more easterly for
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......AMS





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