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000
FXUS63 KPAH 291910
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
210 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

A weak surface trough extended from roughly Mount Carmel to Marion
Illinois to Cape Girardeau and Poplar Bluff Missouri early this
afternoon. Forcing is rather weak, but with surface-based CAPE
values from 2500-3000 J/kg, isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible along and ahead of the trough through the remainder of
the afternoon. A small chance of thunderstorms continues into
early evening-- mainly across portions of southern Indiana and
east of the Land Between the Lakes in western Kentucky.

The remainder of the night into Tuesday, weak ridging aloft will
work its way east from the Plains into the Middle Mississippi and
Lower Ohio Valleys as high pressure take hold at the surface. A
somewhat drier atmospheric profile beneath this ridge should
result in mainly dry conditions through the period, though a few
showers and storms cannot be completely ruled out across the Ozark
foothills of southeast Missouri.

Energy currently over the Pacific Northwest will develop into an
upper level low as it shifts east into the northern Plains. As the
trough south of this low approaches, chances for showers and
thunderstorms will begin to increase in earnest from west to east
by late Tuesday night into mid week.

Temperatures will be quite warm through the near term. Expect
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the lower to mid 60s.
This is in the ballpark of a model consensus blend.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Thunderstorm chances will increase through the middle part of the
week as a cold front pushes SE across the FA. The passage of the
cold front late in the week is somewhat uncertain, at least in its
potentially lingering impacts on the S/SE part of the FA. Will lean
toward the latest GFS solution of slowing the frontal passage and
keeping it close enough to continue low POPs in the S/SE through at
least Thu night. Once a second 500mb trough sweeps through the OH
Valley Friday the front should be far enough south to negate the
need for continued POPs.

Models differ somewhat on timing of another cold front late next
weekend, but thunderstorm chances will be introduced beginning
Sunday as all models have it close enough by then to warrant POPs.
Otherwise the summerlike pattern will transition to cooler/slightly
below normal temps after Wednesday as the impacts of the post
frontal air occur.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR ceilings are expected this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible as a weak surface
trough moves southeast through the area. Southwest winds AOB 10
knots will shift to the northwest behind the trough later this
afternoon and then become light and variable through Monday. VFR
conditions should prevail tonight and Monday, but the formation of
late night patchy fog cannot be ruled out in favored locations.
However, coverage should be less than last night with a somewhat
drier air mass in place.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...RS
AVIATION...RJP



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000
FXUS63 KLMK 291859
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
259 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

It`s warm and humid out there this afternoon with temperatures in
the mid 80s and dewpoints in the mid 60s. The concern for the
remainder of the afternoon will be thunderstorms. Storms have begun
to develop along a weak front moving across southeast IL and central
IN. The region has become relatively unstable with 1000-2000 J/kg of
surface based CAPE. However, wind shear remains weak. Precipitable
water values have decreased during the day, but are still 1.2-1.3
inches. All in all, organized severe weather is not expected.
However, a few storms could become strong. Gusty winds and very
heavy downpours would be the main concern. Storms are expected to
remain scattered in nature. The best coverage will be this afternoon
along and north of the Ohio River. Think that coverage should
decrease as the front heads east into the evening hours. The rain
should exit east central KY by late evening with the rest of the
overnight hours remaining dry.

Memorial day looks to be warm and dry. Though temperatures will be
similar to today, dewpoints are expected to decrease a few degrees
in the wake of the front. Highs will top out in the mid 80s. Dry
weather will continue Monday night with lows in the lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will bring dry weather
for the beginning of the long term period. Tuesday through most of
Wednesday will see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. The main
question will be how hot it will get. Some of the guidance suggests
a high of 90 at SDF on Wednesday. However, increasing clouds and
very green vegetation may work against temps getting that high. For
now will go with highs in the mid to upper 80s across the region for
Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will be in the lower to mid 60s.

Rain chances will be on the increase late Wednesday afternoon into
the nighttime hours as a front approaches and moves into the area.
This front will continue to slowly sink south and east Thursday into
Thursday night. The best shot at showers and storms looks to be
during the day Thursday.

The front looks to stall just south of the KY/TN border on
Friday/Friday night with lingering storm chances across south
central KY. This precipitation should move out by Saturday morning
with a dry start to the weekend. Temperatures Friday and Saturday
will be a bit cooler in the wake of the front. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 70s with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Cumulus clouds around 4 kft have developed over central KY north
thru IN, with a modest SW surface wind of 4-8 kt. As a weak cold
front from the Great Lakes through central IL moves southeast this
afternoon and evening, isolated to scattered convective cells should
develop from OH to southern IN and north-central and northern KY.
With weak forcing but unstable air, coverage should be limited but
any storm could cause brief, isolated wind gusts around 30 kts. SDF
appears to have the best chance given the timing of the front and
best instability, although even here, coverage should be limited and
no more than VCTS. At LEX, any cells may wait til a bit later as
cells begin to weaken, so will carry VCSH for now. Looks like any
activity should remain north and east of BWG. Nevertheless,
conditions will remain VFR except briefly lower in any storm.

For tonight, winds become light NW at SDF and eventually LEX and
light and variable at BWG. By early Tuesday morning, there will
still be residual surface-based moisture as dewpoints remain up.
Thus, at least tempo MVFR fog is possible at BWG and LEX. Conditions
become VFR quickly thereafter on Tuesday with a NNW breeze 5-10 kts.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........TWF



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000
FXUS63 KJKL 291835 AAC
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
235 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Hourly weather grids were updated based on recent radar and
observation trends. However, no substantial changes were needed at
this time. The best chance convection over the next couple of
hours will be from the Big Sandy Region down to the VA border
counties. The convection will be slow moving so some locally heavy
rain will fall from these.

UPDATE Issued at 1058 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Minor adjustments have been made to the hourly grids based on
observations and radar trends. This led to a bit higher pops
across the western part of the CWA just west of JKL over the next
couple of hours where a narrow broken line of showers is moving
slowly east and lowered pops over the next couple of hours along
the VA border as moisture and showers on the outer edges of the
circulation of TD Bonnie is struggling to make it much further
west than I 77 corridor in WV and VA or into portions of NE TN.
Additional isolated to scattered convection should develop during
peak heating as a shortwave trough slowly approaches from the
west. Coverage should be a bit greater than yesterday more in the
scattered range due to some mid level forcing.

UPDATE Issued at 720 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Did a quick update to add in a potential for isolated
thunderstorms in the morning portion of the forecast. Also removed
fog from the grids and adjusted T/Td/Sky/PoPs per the latest
observations and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers, along with a freshened set of zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

07z SFC analysis shows relative high pressure over East Kentucky
early this morning as low pressure is found off to the northwest
as well as to the southeast associated with landfalling Tropical
Storm Bonnie. Mainly just some mid and high level clouds are
around the CWA - some loosely connected to the tropical system.
This is likely helping to keep the fog at bay for most places this
morning, though not enough to limit the development of a ridge to
valley temperature split. As such, readings vary from the low 60s
in the more sheltered valleys of the east to the upper 60s on the
ridges. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are in the muggy category for
another night, running from the low to mid 60s. Winds are light
and variable with a clean radar scope at this hour.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict general ridge conditions
through the southeast, but one that has been hollowed out by the
arrival of the tropical storm into the Carolinas. At the same
time as the mid level energy arrives from the tropics, a trough
will brush by Kentucky to the northwest resulting in a gradual
decrease in heights for the area into Monday. Again the mesoscale
will be the more dominant driver of the weather details with the
higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 favored for forecast specifics.

Sensible weather will feature a bit of valley fog around this
morning followed by another warm day. The models suggest that the
best chances for convection will be over the eastern portion of
the CWA and that makes sense with the higher terrain helping to
initiate convection in an environment with little lower level
shear, but ample instability. The downstream influence of T.S.
Bonnie, resulting from from its broad region of uplift around its
core and areas of subsidence/enhancement spreading out from the
center, though weakening with distance, may be enough to give
the east an extra shot at convection later today. Accordingly,
have given the highest PoPs to those parts and lesser amounts to
the west. The NAM12 depicts this well and the gridded forecast -
pretty much followed suit. Another concern, affecting the area
later in the day and into the night, is a weak front sliding
southeast into the Ohio Valley possibly initiating more storms
thanks mainly to the inherent instability. This boundary could
bring isolated to scattered storms to the area well into the
night as it settles into far southeast Kentucky late tonight.
Have kept a small chance for this in the forecast along with a
potential renewal of convection in the far southeast on Monday,
while the rest of the area enjoys a pleasant, warm, and dry
Memorial Day.

Again used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for
most of the weather elements with small to moderate adjustments
to temperatures at night for ridge to valley splits. Also, upped
temps a notch today and Monday. As for PoPs, ended up lower to
the MAV guidance thinking that the best chances will be further
east today compared to the MET offering.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

The first part of the long term period will be mostly dry as surface
high pressure builds into East Kentucky Monday evening. The only
exception will be along the southeast Kentucky border where a few
afternoon showers may pop up as a cold front exits the region. The
dry, but warm weather will persist through Wednesday. Moisture and
humidity will then begin increasing again as a low pressure system
approaches the region. This system will bring a cold front into East
Kentucky by Thursday afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase throughout the day, as the front approaches, with the best
chance for thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon and evening. If
this ideal timing holds true, there will be a chance for at least
some strong storms. The frontal boundary may stall somewhere in the
region Thursday night through at least Friday, keeping the weather
unsettled. There is a chance that an upper level shortwave trough
will move through Kentucky on Saturday, kicking the frontal boundary
south of the area. However, confidence is low this far out in the
forecast on where the boundary will set up and for how long.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through
Thursday. A cold front will move through most of the region by
Thursday evening, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal
values. This cool airmass will allow afternoon high temperatures to
stay in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures each night will be in
the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Convection is currently working across the eastern portion of the
area. This will affect locations near SJS and also non TAF site
PBX with some brief MVFR or IFR over the next hour or two.
Otherwise, additional isolated activity is possible through
around sunset or perhaps later if any convection can manage to
develop along a rather weak cold front approaching from the west.
Outside of this, VFR is anticipated with one exception, fog
tonight into early on Monday. Since JKL received rain earlier and
SJS did as well, fog possibly into the IFR range and possibly at
least briefly below airport mins can be expected for a time in the
6Z to 14Z period. Guidance also brings generally IFR fog to LOZ
and SME and MVFR fog to SYM. Outside of any stronger showers or
thunderstorms, winds to remain light, at around 5 kts or less,
throughout the period.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 291750
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Some scattered clouds early this a.m. otherwise mostly clear. A
weak surface "cold" front was to our west. The models bring this
weak boundary south and east into the FA, to near the Ohio River
into SEMO around 00z. Will carry small PoPs for convection mainly
across the SE 1/2 of the CWFA this afternoon and evening, ending
by midnight. The boundary will be south of the area after midnight
with dry weather to follow into the 1st half of Memorial Day. In
the afternoon, still looking at the possibility for convection
across the Ozark Foothill region of SEMO. As the upper level flow
backs, and return flow sets up Monday night through Tuesday, PoPs
for convection will slowly expand east across the area, though
only low chance category for now. Model blend was NAM/EC. We
incorporated HiRes data for convective trends this afternoon and
evening. Temps were a blend of existing numbers and MOS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Medium confidence on the cold front passage late in the week. Fairly
high confidence there will be periods of storms through at least
mid week.

Models are in good agreement with southwest flow persisting over the
heartland with several perturbations in the flow. The best chance of
rain will arrive Wednesday afternoon through Thursday as a cold
front hangs up and slowly pushes through the heartland. The
residence time of the front is likely in response to the slow
eastward progression of an upper level along the eastern seaboard.
Friday is when the models start to diverge with their solutions. The
GFS continues to develop a closed low over the Arklatex area with
associated precip chances which has been the case for the last
several runs but it develops it a little faster than previous runs.
The Canadian which did not do this before is now starting to develop
this closed low over the mid Mississippi Valley which is not at all
like its previous runs which resembled the ECMWF solutions. The much
more stable...but not necessarily correct...ECMWF keeps the trough
open but stationary. It still develops a closed low over the mid
Mississippi Valley but holds off until Sunday night into Monday
before returning rain chances to the area. Weighted the ECMWF much
more due to its stability. However did leave some slgt chc pops in
Thursday night into Friday which goes against the ECMWF solutions. I
would expect any blends to continue to yield these low pops in the
extended through the convective season which introduces much more
error than cool weather stratiform synoptic scenarios. As for
temperatures expect a cooling trend through the extended as the
trough overtakes the heartland.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Scattered to occasionally broken VFR ceilings are expected this
afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms remain possible as a weak surface
trough moves southeast through the area. Southwest winds AOB 10
knots will shift to the northwest behind the trough later this
afternoon and then become light and variable through Monday. VFR
conditions should prevail tonight and Monday, but the formation of
late night patchy fog cannot be ruled out in favored locations.
However, coverage should be less than last night with a somewhat
drier air mass in place.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KLMK 291557
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1157 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1155 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

The showers across the Bluegrass region of KY have mostly moved off
to the east. Dry conditions are expected for at least the next few
hours. Thereafter, storms should begin to develop across southern IN
by mid afternoon along a cold front pushing into the region. Models
have quite a bit of instability developing across the region this
afternoon. Wind fields will be weak, but some stronger pulse storms
are possible along the front as it pushes through the region this
afternoon and evening. The forecast was updated to reflect the
current thinking with regard to pops.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Well...muggy airmass will continue for another day across the Ohio
Valley with a break in the humidity levels on Memorial Day into Tue.

Forecast Challenge...POPS today...

Metwatch...

Currently PPINE on radar with high level clouds streaming from far
outer spiral feeder bands from TS Bonnie just off CHS. Temps in the
upper 60s with dew points in the low to mid 60s and light SE winds.
Herculean backbuilding MCS (2) over TX is something to behold, some
folks are getting copious rain in the Lone Star State.

Today and This Evening...

There are two areas to watch for convection...the first is the weak
outflow from Bonnie in the higher moisture channels. The water vapor
channel imagery shows the deeper moisture transport swinging north
thru GA thru the Cumberland Plateau and into the I 75 corridor. The
HRR has been trying to develop convection as early as 08-09z, but
not buying it that timeframe, but after daybreak this should be a
focusing mechanism.

The second area will be ahead and along a weak front making its trek
through the Ohio Valley. Isolated Showers and storms are expected to
develop ahead of the front by lunchtime and increase to scattered
during the mid and late afternoon. So 20-40% pops for this afternoon
look fairly reasonable. No organized severe weather is expected, but
isolated stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are not
out of the question. The MUCAPE climbs to 1000 j/kg but wind fields
are weak. PWATs are lower than yesterday but still 1.25 inches will
be a factor with such weak mid level steering currents.

The one odd model is the NAM which develops nothing on the front
until 00Z and then explodes the entire line over the CWA. For now am
following the SREF and then will be in mesoscale model mode for the
first 12-18 hours.

Highs will top out in the mid 80s with dew points climbing into the
mid 60s, and for a 3-4 hour timeframe ahead of the front into the
upper 60s in some spots before falling.

Tonight thru Mon Night...

The front is not expected to bring much cooler air with it, but
Monday will see a slight drop in dewpoints. As high pressure builds
in, these should bring dry weather and clearing skies. Plan to
have a dry forecast.

Lows will be in the mid 60s and Highs on Memorial Day in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

...Dry 1st half of the week...
...Nrn trough and meandering upper lows bringing unsettled wx
pattern Thu-Sat...

Tue-Wed...

Well...the upper level pattern has weak sw zonal flow with potent
low over the Dakotas and a weaker upper low moving out of AZ/NM.
This will maintain a dry forecast and bring lots of daytime cerulean
sky and star gazing Tue night.  The forecast soundings show strong
daytime mixing each afternoon with steep llvl lapse rates and nearly
dry adiabatic up to 8k.  Plan to raise high temps on Tue to 85-90
across the CWA. 90 is my pick number for SDF on Tue. Lows will be in
the low to mid 60s.

Wed night and Thu

Clouds start really increasing ahead of deep closed low over Isle
Royale NP MI of Lake Superior. Lots of energy will form an elongated
trough axis and push it eastward toward the Ohio Valley.
This feature could act to funnel better moisture up from the GLFMEX
and the from the SSW and sweep a surface front across the area. This
is the type of pattern which will produce very heavy rain, such as
in TX/LA as the low meanders.  Like the Superblend of likely POPs on
Thu with good moisture and forcing. Could be a stormy day.

Thu Night-Weekend

GFS and ECM developing large scale ridge over the 4 Corners and
almost an unusual Omega Blocking pattern with low off of srn CA and
another off of SE TX.  This will keep CWA under a NW flow pattern
which will yield cooler temps, more cloud cover, and sporadic
precip. Temps will be near normal to slightly below normal during
parts of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

TAF weather will remain quiet with VFR conditions (other than some
early morning fog at BWG) and winds under 10 knots expected through
the period. A broken area of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this
evening coincident with a weak surface front, upper level
divergence, and diurnal instability. The front will also bring winds
around to the northwest but at low speeds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....JDG
Long Term......JDG
Aviation.......13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 291046
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
646 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

Well...muggy airmass will continue for another day across the Ohio
Valley with a break in the humidity levels on Memorial Day into Tue.

Forecast Challenge...POPS today...

Metwatch...

Currently PPINE on radar with high level clouds streaming from far
outer spiral feeder bands from TS Bonnie just off CHS. Temps in the
upper 60s with dew points in the low to mid 60s and light SE winds.
Herculean backbuilding MCS (2) over TX is something to behold, some
folks are getting copious rain in the Lone Star State.

Today and This Evening...

There are two areas to watch for convection...the first is the weak
outflow from Bonnie in the higher moisture channels. The water vapor
channel imagery shows the deeper moisture transport swinging north
thru GA thru the Cumberland Plateau and into the I 75 corridor. The
HRR has been trying to develop convection as early as 08-09z, but
not buying it that timeframe, but after daybreak this should be a
focusing mechanism.

The second area will be ahead and along a weak front making its trek
through the Ohio Valley. Isolated Showers and storms are expected to
develop ahead of the front by lunchtime and increase to scattered
during the mid and late afternoon. So 20-40% pops for this afternoon
look fairly reasonable. No organized severe weather is expected, but
isolated stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are not
out of the question. The MUCAPE climbs to 1000 j/kg but wind fields
are weak. PWATs are lower than yesterday but still 1.25 inches will
be a factor with such weak mid level steering currents.

The one odd model is the NAM which develops nothing on the front
until 00Z and then explodes the entire line over the CWA. For now am
following the SREF and then will be in mesoscale model mode for the
first 12-18 hours.

Highs will top out in the mid 80s with dew points climbing into the
mid 60s, and for a 3-4 hour timeframe ahead of the front into the
upper 60s in some spots before falling.

Tonight thru Mon Night...

The front is not expected to bring much cooler air with it, but
Monday will see a slight drop in dewpoints. As high pressure builds
in, these should bring dry weather and clearing skies. Plan to
have a dry forecast.

Lows will be in the mid 60s and Highs on Memorial Day in the mid 80s.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

...Dry 1st half of the week...
...Nrn trough and meandering upper lows bringing unsettled wx
pattern Thu-Sat...

Tue-Wed...

Well...the upper level pattern has weak sw zonal flow with potent
low over the Dakotas and a weaker upper low moving out of AZ/NM.
This will maintain a dry forecast and bring lots of daytime cerulean
sky and star gazing Tue night.  The forecast soundings show strong
daytime mixing each afternoon with steep llvl lapse rates and nearly
dry adiabatic up to 8k.  Plan to raise high temps on Tue to 85-90
across the CWA. 90 is my pick number for SDF on Tue. Lows will be in
the low to mid 60s.

Wed night and Thu

Clouds start really increasing ahead of deep closed low over Isle
Royale NP MI of Lake Superior. Lots of energy will form an elongated
trough axis and push it eastward toward the Ohio Valley.
This feature could act to funnel better moisture up from the GLFMEX
and the from the SSW and sweep a surface front across the area. This
is the type of pattern which will produce very heavy rain, such as
in TX/LA as the low meanders.  Like the Superblend of likely POPs on
Thu with good moisture and forcing. Could be a stormy day.

Thu Night-Weekend

GFS and ECM developing large scale ridge over the 4 Corners and
almost an unusual Omega Blocking pattern with low off of srn CA and
another off of SE TX.  This will keep CWA under a NW flow pattern
which will yield cooler temps, more cloud cover, and sporadic
precip. Temps will be near normal to slightly below normal during
parts of next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 646 AM EDT Sun May 29 2016

TAF weather will remain quiet with VFR conditions (other than some
early morning fog at BWG) and winds under 10 knots expected through
the period. A broken area of showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this
evening coincident with a weak surface front, upper level
divergence, and diurnal instability. The front will also bring winds
around to the northwest but at low speeds.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........JDG
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281954
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
354 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

As of mid afternoon, the region remains on the western edge of a
ridge centered over the Atlantic that extends west into the Mid
Atlantic States and Mid Ohio Valley region. West of the area, a
trough extended from the Dakotas/Upper MS Valley region south
toward the Arklatex region. In addition, a couple of rather weak
shortwave troughs were moving from the MS Valley region toward the
Lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region. TD TWO continues to inch
closer to the South Carolina coastline late this afternoon.

Tonight into Sunday, the trough is expected to approach the Great
Lakes on Ohio Valley region and lead to a bit of height falls late
tonight. In addition, the upper level system associated with TD
TWO is expected to be drawn northwest inland of the Carolinas/GA
in response to the trough passing to the north. However, the model
consensus does not pick up or merge it with this upper trough and
this upper level disturbance should meander over the Southeast
through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the shortwave generally
passing north of the area through the Great lakes and toward the
Northeast by the end of the period should send a cold front toward
the region late in the period.

Very isolated convection has developed so far this afternoon and
recent trends point toward much of the cu field having mixed out.
In addition, this mixing has brought dewpoints back down into the
lower 60s is several locations. Recent short term model runs such
as as the HRRR have less convection this evening across the area
and this seems very reasonable given the recent trends. With that
in mind, we have isolated chances through early evening across
central and eastern locations and scattered chances across the
west closer to the slowly approaching wave and boundary.

With the loss of daytime heating, the convection should generally
dissipate around sunset this evening, if not before. A stray
shower or two cannot be ruled out in the warm sector overnight.
Valley fog will again be a threat, especially if clouds can
scatter out for a while. The few locations that received rain may
also experience fog.

Daytime heating and the wave passing by to the north and
northwest as well as the boundary approaching should lead to
isolated to scattered convection on Sunday. The threat for
convection will linger into Sunday evening, but wane around or
shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Fog should
again develop in the valleys on Sunday night and where rain
occurs on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Confidence has increased that we will see a longer stretch of dry
weather from Monday through Wednesday night.  A cold front will be
slipping southeast to start the day on Monday, with perhaps a few
pop up showers possible along the boundary before it departs
southeast by midday. High pressure will then center itself over the
area late Monday through Tuesday. Slightly less humidity will also
be seen through the early portion of the week making for a fairly
pleasant memorial day and Tuesday.  By Wednesday, moisture starts to
return as we see return flow kick in.  However, still missing a
trigger for convection through Wednesday afternoon so coverage will
remain very sparse. Best chances may be for convection to form along
a ridge axis, but may still see a weak mid level cap preventing
convection from getting organized or seeing much thunder. Any
convection will diminish Wednesday evening setting the stage for a
quiet night. The period of more tranquil weather will likely come to
an end by Thursday as a shortwave trough pushes a frontal boundary
into the Ohio river valley. Return flow should increase ahead of
this front bring ample moisture into the region. This coupled with
forcing aloft should allow for increased coverage in showers and
storms by Thursday evening. Still a ways out, but there may be just
enough shear in place to support a low end severe event for the
area. Still plenty of time for this to evolve, but since it may be
the most noteworthy thing in the extended, probably worth
mentioning. The boundary may stall somewhere in the region for the
rest of the week, keeping the weather unsettled, but confidence is
low on placement of the boundary pending the convection on Thursday.
Regardless, will carry chance pops through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Overall temperatures will remain mild with highs into the 80s each
day and lows in the 60s.  We could see some lows into the 50s Monday
night and Tuesday night with the slightly less humid airmass.
However, that won`t be the case later in the week as humidity
returns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Outside of heavier showers and any thunderstorms as well as fog
between 6z and 14z, VFR should prevail. Isolated to scattered
convection is anticipated, mainly through 0Z and then again late
in the period after 9Z. As previously noted, the renewed
potential for fog later tonight, should mainly be dictated by
places that experience any rain this afternoon or evening and the
typically favored valley locations. Winds will remain light
through the period outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281852
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Isolated to scattered showers with a few lightning strikes have
developed this afternoon. For the remainder of the afternoon into
the early evening, there could be some additional storm development.
Surface based instability has developed, but there is no well
defined trigger for storms. Models continue to try to develop too
much precipitation. So 20-40% pops for this afternoon look fairly
reasonable. No organized severe weather is expected, but isolated
stronger storms with gusty winds and heavy rainfall are not out of
the question. Showers and storms are then expected to wane through
the evening.

Another weak disturbance may lead to isolated shower/storm
development early tomorrow morning across north central KY and
southern IN. However, most location should stay dry through the
morning. From the late afternoon through evening hours, a weak front
will make its way through the lower Ohio Valley. Showers and storms
are expected to develop along this front in the afternoon and
accompany it as it crosses the area.

The front is not expected to bring much cooler air with it, but
Monday will see a slight drop in dewpoints. As high pressure builds
in, these should bring dry weather and clearing skies. The dry
weather looks to last into Monday night.

Temperatures will remain similar the next couple days with highs in
the lower to mid 80s and lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

The upper level pattern Tuesday and Wednesday is expected to remain
similar featuring a baggy, weak zonal flow with the stronger
shortwaves staying out to the west and north over the Plains states.
This should continue to provide above normal temperatures and
relatively dry conditions across southern Indiana and central
Kentucky. Highs are forecast to top out in the mid/upper 80s with a
mild/muggy morning in the 60s to near 70.

By Thursday through the end of next week, the forecast models are
suggesting that a closed low over the Northern Plains and energy
coming out of the Rockies will form an elongated trough axis and
push it eastward toward the lower Ohio Valley. This feature could
act to funnel better moisture up through the deep South and sweep a
surface front across the area. Given the limited confidence and run
to run variability, will hold the model consensus POPs down to high-
end chance (40 to 50 percent) until guidance agrees on this idea
more. But it`s possible that the latter portions of next week could
be a bit more stormy than in the short term.

Temperatures are still expected to run above late May and early June
normals, especially at night where abundant low-level moisture may
hold readings up around 70.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 PM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. There
continues to be the chance for showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon. Rain chances should increase a bit during the afternoon
hours, but still think the showers/storms will be fairly widely
spaced. Thus, will continue to mention VCSH and amend if a
thunderstorm looks to impact any of the terminals. Southerly winds
around 10-12 knots will continue this afternoon.

Winds will relax tonight and any showers that develop this afternoon
are expected to move out. Mostly dry conditions are expected after
00-01Z.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281802 AAC
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
202 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and
trends. This led to very little change in forecast high temperatures,
but pops were adjusted based on radar and short term model trends.
This led to scattered pops over the western counties and slight
chance for southeastern locations.

UPDATE Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and
trends. The ZFP was updated to remove the valley fog as the valley
fog has dissipated in all locations over the past hour or so.
Recent HRRR runs continue to have a bit more convection at midday
into the early afternoon across the southeast counties where
convection occurred on Friday. Cu fields will continue to be
monitored in that area for the need for some slight pop
adjustments. Overall, the previous forecast was on target and no
significant changes were needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Just a quick update to touch up the T and Td grids per the latest
obs and trends. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

07z SFC analysis shows that eastern Kentucky is in an area of
relative high pressure while seasonably deep low pressure is found
over the plains states, to the west. Despite the high in place,
conditions remain rather muggy and prone to convection, though the
activity over the area ended earlier in the evening while it
continued through central Kentucky a few hours longer. The thicker
mid and high level clouds over eastern Kentucky are starting to
erode, but so far this has delayed the development of fog this
night, though clearer patches in the far east will likely allow
for it there earlier than the rest of the area. Many places under
the thicker clouds are having a balmy night with temperatures in
the low 70s while mid and upper 60s are seen elsewhere. Dewpoints,
meanwhile, are in the muggy low to mid 60s throughout the CWA with
winds light from the southeast. Will monitor the clearing and any
subsequent fog development through the rest of the night for
possible inclusion in the HWO and/or an SPS.

The models are in good agreement aloft and synoptically through
the short term forecast, though mesoscale features will have a
bigger effect on the forecast than any particular long wave system
in this pattern. As it stands, East Kentucky will be in the midst
of mid level ridging with intrusions from short wave energy
brushing by to the northwest in conjunction with a trough lifting
north-northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. At the
same time, energy associated with a possible landfalling
depression or tropical storm on Sunday may progress northeast
enough to affect far eastern parts of the forecast area. Given the
model similarity have gone with a blended solution, but leaned
toward the details from the HRRR and NAM12 most heavily.

Sensible weather will feature a mainly diurnally driven convective
cycle over the area with the northwestern parts of the area
favored today. However, the best chances tonight will fall to the
eastern parts of the CWA and this continues into the day Sunday
loosely related to the tropical system approaching the South
Carolina coast. Otherwise, look for patchy valley fog late tonight
and early both mornings. Generally light winds will provide little
cooling both afternoons as readings peak in the low to mid 80s
along with sticky humidity levels. Any storms that develop
through the weekend should have plenty of instability to help them
sprout as well as moderate PWATs to yield a potential for heavy
rains. Will add this mention to the forthcoming HWO.

Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of
the weather elements with minor adjustments to temperatures at
night anticipating a small ridge to valley split outside of areas
of lingering showers or thick clouds. Also, upped temps a notch
today and Sunday seeing the guidance as overly influenced by
relatively small chances of rain. As for PoPs, ended up on the
low side of all the guidance owing to a lack of organization to
the convection both today and Sunday and expecting mainly spotty
coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough will be passing well to our
north at the start of the period. East Kentucky will be influenced
by general troughiness on Monday before ridging builds into the
area Monday night. The upper ridge is expected to shift off to the
east and strengthen turning the flow to the southwest by
Wednesday. This southwest flow will help usher in additional
moisture. A northern stream trough will make its way towards the
Ohio Valley during the latter half of the week with rounds of
energy lifting into Kentucky along the upper level trough axis
through the remainder of the period.

At the surface, a tropical disturbance will slowly move northward
along the Carolina coastline on Monday. In previous model runs, this
disturbance moved a bit further inland. But the most recent runs of
both the GFS and ECMWF keep the feature along the coastline. This
may allow for a couple of dry days in East Kentucky during the first
half of next week, mainly Monday night through Tuesday. High
pressure will build into the region these days potentially keeping
daytime shower activity at bay. However, rain will return for the
second half of the week as a cold front approaches the region. More
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible along
and ahead of the front starting Wednesday afternoon. Active weather
will continue through the end of the period and into the following
weekend as another potential surface low pressure system forms in
the Gulf and lifts into our area by Saturday.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through
the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through the
region on Friday, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal
values. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 155 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Outside of heavier showers and any thunderstorms as well as fog
between 6z and 14z, VFR should prevail. Isolated to scattered
convection is anticipated, mainly through 0Z and then again late
in the period after 9Z. As previously noted, the renewed
potential for fog later tonight, should mainly be dictated by
places that experience any rain this afternoon or evening and the
typically favored valley locations. Winds will remain light
through the period outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 281747
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Revised aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Will carry a chance of convection today, best chances east of the
MS River as a weak mid level disturbance moves across the area. We
are still warm sector ahead of a front to our west. Would not
rule out an isolated shra/tsra tonight, but overall, very low
PoPs. Will keep it mainly dry for now and monitor. The flow at H7
veers around to WNW Sunday with a disturbance forecast to move
across the area. Have a chance of convection in Sunday, as a band
of moisture moves through with an unstable atmosphere forecast.
Dry Sunday night, then PoPs Memorial Day/Night should be confined
to the Ozark Foothill region as a mid level s/wv ridge builds
across the area, keeping most of the area dry. Temps will be a
blend of existing numbers and MOS. Model preference is a blend of
the EC/GEM.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Medium to low confidence on timing of pieces of energy rotating
through on the southwest flow and cold front passage late in the
week. Fairly high confidence there will be periods of storms but
with plenty of dry periods along the way.

The models and ensembles are in fair to good agreement on the upper
level high over the southeast slowly retreating southeast at the
start of the extended. This combined with the fact the Gulf remains
wide open with abundant low level moisture flowing into the
heartland...will result in increasing storm chances as we head
through the middle of next week. However the models including the
GFS ECMWF and Canadian agree on a cold front moving through as early
as Thursday. The ECMWF takes it well southeast of the area resulting
in dry conditions. The GFS and Canadian have slightly different
upper air solutions with the GFS hangs a cut off upper low over the
area while the Canadian and ECMWF keep over the great lakes region.
With recent performance of the GFS and the more stable ECMWF...have
opted to lean toward the ECMWF solution. However...last week it
brought said front through this weekend about a week ago. Now it
leaning toward Thursday which is almost a week later than originally
forecast early last week. So confidence is shaky at best with the
synoptic scenario but thats the best we have available at this time.
Temperature show a cooling trend through the week as the high shifts
away from the region slightly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Mainly VFR condition are forecast through the near term. The
potential for thunderstorms is highest over eastern terminals
(KEVV/KOWB) this afternoon as a weak disturbance passes through.
More thunderstorm activity expected to develop near KSTL may impact
parts of the area tonight as it progresses to the southeast, but
confidence is too low to include a mention in the TAFs at this time.
Southerly winds gusting up to 20 mph this afternoon will become
light tonight, then veer to the west on Sunday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KJKL 281449 AAB
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1049 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Hourly grids have been updated based on recent observations and
trends. The ZFP was updated to remove the valley fog as the valley
fog has dissipated in all locations over the past hour or so.
Recent HRRR runs continue to have a bit more convection at midday
into the early afternoon across the southeast counties where
convection occurred on Friday. Cu fields will continue to be
monitored in that area for the need for some slight pop
adjustments. Overall, the previous forecast was on target and no
significant changes were needed at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Just a quick update to touch up the T and Td grids per the latest
obs and trends. These grids have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

07z SFC analysis shows that eastern Kentucky is in an area of
relative high pressure while seasonably deep low pressure is found
over the plains states, to the west. Despite the high in place,
conditions remain rather muggy and prone to convection, though the
activity over the area ended earlier in the evening while it
continued through central Kentucky a few hours longer. The thicker
mid and high level clouds over eastern Kentucky are starting to
erode, but so far this has delayed the development of fog this
night, though clearer patches in the far east will likely allow
for it there earlier than the rest of the area. Many places under
the thicker clouds are having a balmy night with temperatures in
the low 70s while mid and upper 60s are seen elsewhere. Dewpoints,
meanwhile, are in the muggy low to mid 60s throughout the CWA with
winds light from the southeast. Will monitor the clearing and any
subsequent fog development through the rest of the night for
possible inclusion in the HWO and/or an SPS.

The models are in good agreement aloft and synoptically through
the short term forecast, though mesoscale features will have a
bigger effect on the forecast than any particular long wave system
in this pattern. As it stands, East Kentucky will be in the midst
of mid level ridging with intrusions from short wave energy
brushing by to the northwest in conjunction with a trough lifting
north-northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. At the
same time, energy associated with a possible landfalling
depression or tropical storm on Sunday may progress northeast
enough to affect far eastern parts of the forecast area. Given the
model similarity have gone with a blended solution, but leaned
toward the details from the HRRR and NAM12 most heavily.

Sensible weather will feature a mainly diurnally driven convective
cycle over the area with the northwestern parts of the area
favored today. However, the best chances tonight will fall to the
eastern parts of the CWA and this continues into the day Sunday
loosely related to the tropical system approaching the South
Carolina coast. Otherwise, look for patchy valley fog late tonight
and early both mornings. Generally light winds will provide little
cooling both afternoons as readings peak in the low to mid 80s
along with sticky humidity levels. Any storms that develop
through the weekend should have plenty of instability to help them
sprout as well as moderate PWATs to yield a potential for heavy
rains. Will add this mention to the forthcoming HWO.

Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of
the weather elements with minor adjustments to temperatures at
night anticipating a small ridge to valley split outside of areas
of lingering showers or thick clouds. Also, upped temps a notch
today and Sunday seeing the guidance as overly influenced by
relatively small chances of rain. As for PoPs, ended up on the
low side of all the guidance owing to a lack of organization to
the convection both today and Sunday and expecting mainly spotty
coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough will be passing well to our
north at the start of the period. East Kentucky will be influenced
by general troughiness on Monday before ridging builds into the
area Monday night. The upper ridge is expected to shift off to the
east and strengthen turning the flow to the southwest by
Wednesday. This southwest flow will help usher in additional
moisture. A northern stream trough will make its way towards the
Ohio Valley during the latter half of the week with rounds of
energy lifting into Kentucky along the upper level trough axis
through the remainder of the period.

At the surface, a tropical disturbance will slowly move northward
along the Carolina coastline on Monday. In previous model runs, this
disturbance moved a bit further inland. But the most recent runs of
both the GFS and ECMWF keep the feature along the coastline. This
may allow for a couple of dry days in East Kentucky during the first
half of next week, mainly Monday night through Tuesday. High
pressure will build into the region these days potentially keeping
daytime shower activity at bay. However, rain will return for the
second half of the week as a cold front approaches the region. More
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible along
and ahead of the front starting Wednesday afternoon. Active weather
will continue through the end of the period and into the following
weekend as another potential surface low pressure system forms in
the Gulf and lifts into our area by Saturday.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through
the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through the
region on Friday, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal
values. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Still some traces of MVFR fog will be possible for the next hour
or so, otherwise the TAF sites will likely be VFR for most of the
time. Scattered convection will be around this afternoon into the
evening with a renewed potential for fog later tonight, but mainly
dictated by places that saw any rain during the day. Have added
some prevailing MVFR in the more western and northern locations.
Light south to southeast winds will gradually veer to the
southwest through the day.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 281336
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
936 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 934 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

A few light showers continue to develop this morning across the
region. Some of these are east of where the pops were, so the hourly
grids were updated to reflect current trends. Mesoscale models still
are suggesting that more showers and thunderstorms will develop from
mid day into the afternoon. Given the current guidance, pops were
increased a bit across the Lake Cumberland region. Otherwise, the
forecast remains generally on track.

Issued at 615 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Still having a difficult time generating precip in this juicy air
mass, so shower and T-storm chances may be slightly delayed compared
to the previous forecast. Precip over the lower Mississippi Valley
has failed to materialize, with radars not tapping much more than a
mid-level deck lifting into the Missouri Bootheel and western
Tennessee. Patchy light rain is also noted in a few spots on an axis
of higher precipitable water that is oriented north-south through
Alabama and Middle Tennessee into central Kentucky.

Still believe chance POPs are on track, but not looking for much
QPF out of it. Grids updated to show slower timing and less morning
thunder potential, but zones remain unchanged.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Amplified upper pattern continues to maintain a weak, but quite warm
and humid southerly flow into the Ohio Valley. However, coverage of
any showers and storms has been limited due to the lack of lifting
mechanisms both at the surface and aloft. We have seen a fairly
narrow plume of showers since late evening in central Kentucky but
that is fading. Upstream convective activity is still limited, but
we are starting to see a smattering of showers in the Lower
Mississippi Valley, with an upper impulse being thrown out of a
convective complex along the western Gulf Coast.

Based on hi-res and legacy model data, would look for these showers
to blossom as they lift NE toward the Ohio Valley today, bringing a
solid chance for showers and T-storms to the area mainly during the
afternoon hours. Confidence is still limited as it still doesn`t
look like a well-organized rain shield, but it`s more than just
popcorn storms, so will ramp POPs to 50% at most. Not expecting any
organized severe storms as the flow remains quite weak, but it`s
juicy enough for the odd pulse storm to produce gusty winds, and
brief locally heavy rain could result in short-fuse flood concerns.
Temps continue above normal but clouds and precip will limit
diurnal ranges.

This impulse kicks through this evening, and the upper pattern
starts to flatten out as the deep trof over the Plains lifts into
the western Great Lakes. One more impulse will swing through on
Sunday as the trof gets picked up in the westerlies, so will
continue a 20-30 POP through Sunday, with temps just a couple
degrees warmer than today thanks to more sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Weak and zonal flow aloft will set up by Memorial Day, with faster
westerlies across the Great Lakes and shortwave ridging over the
Ohio Valley. Low-level air mass remains warm and humid, but
precipitable water decreases to around 1 inch for Monday and
Tuesday, so will stick with the theme of a couple of dry days.
Should still get a decent amount of cu, so will limit max temps to
the upper 80s.

Upper pattern starts to amplify again from midweek onward, but we`ll
again be relying more on the available moisture than the strength of
any dynamics for our precip chances. As such, confidence in the
timing of anything remains limited, so will roll with a model
consensus of scattered coverage for most of the latter half of the
week. Temps remain above normal through the period, especially at
night as cooling will be limited by clouds and abundant low-level
moisture.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 643 AM EDT Sat May 28 2016

Generally VFR through the TAF period. Primarily a SCT/BKN mid deck
and southerly winds staying up around 5-10 knots today.

Showers will be possible just about any time in this very humid
atmosphere. Will continue with VCSH in the TAFs. Thunder isn`t out
of the question...best chances would be diurnally driven this
afternoon.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......13




000
FXUS63 KJKL 280745
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

07z SFC analysis shows that eastern Kentucky is in an area of
relative high pressure while seasonably deep low pressure is found
over the plains states, to the west. Despite the high in place,
conditions remain rather muggy and prone to convection, though the
activity over the area ended earlier in the evening while it
continued through central Kentucky a few hours longer. The thicker
mid and high level clouds over eastern Kentucky are starting to
erode, but so far this has delayed the development of fog this
night, though clearer patches in the far east will likely allow
for it there earlier than the rest of the area. Many places under
the thicker clouds are having a balmy night with temperatures in
the low 70s while mid and upper 60s are seen elsewhere. Dewpoints,
meanwhile, are in the muggy low to mid 60s throughout the CWA with
winds light from the southeast. Will monitor the clearing and any
subsequent fog development through the rest of the night for
possible inclusion in the HWO and/or an SPS.

The models are in good agreement aloft and synoptically through
the short term forecast, though mesoscale features will have a
bigger effect on the forecast than any particular long wave system
in this pattern. As it stands, East Kentucky will be in the midst
of mid level ridging with intrusions from short wave energy
brushing by to the northwest in conjunction with a trough lifting
north-northeast into the western Great Lakes on Sunday. At the
same time, energy associated with a possible landfalling
depression or tropical storm on Sunday may progress northeast
enough to affect far eastern parts of the forecast area. Given the
model similarity have gone with a blended solution, but leaned
toward the details from the HRRR and NAM12 most heavily.

Sensible weather will feature a mainly diurnally driven convective
cycle over the area with the northwestern parts of the area
favored today. However, the best chances tonight will fall to the
eastern parts of the CWA and this continues into the day Sunday
loosely related to the tropical system approaching the South
Carolina coast. Otherwise, look for patchy valley fog late tonight
and early both mornings. Generally light winds will provide little
cooling both afternoons as readings peak in the low to mid 80s
along with sticky humidity levels. Any storms that develop
through the weekend should have plenty of instability to help them
sprout as well as moderate PWATs to yield a potential for heavy
rains. Will add this mention to the forthcoming HWO.

Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for most of
the weather elements with minor adjustments to temperatures at
night anticipating a small ridge to valley split outside of areas
of lingering showers or thick clouds. Also, upped temps a notch
today and Sunday seeing the guidance as overly influenced by
relatively small chances of rain. As for PoPs, ended up on the
low side of all the guidance owing to a lack of organization to
the convection both today and Sunday and expecting mainly spotty
coverage.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

At upper levels, a shortwave trough will be passing well to our
north at the start of the period. East Kentucky will be influenced
by general troughiness on Monday before ridging builds into the
area Monday night. The upper ridge is expected to shift off to the
east and strengthen turning the flow to the southwest by
Wednesday. This southwest flow will help usher in additional
moisture. A northern stream trough will make its way towards the
Ohio Valley during the latter half of the week with rounds of
energy lifting into Kentucky along the upper level trough axis
through the remainder of the period.

At the surface, a tropical disturbance will slowly move northward
along the Carolina coastline on Monday. In previous model runs, this
disturbance moved a bit further inland. But the most recent runs of
both the GFS and ECMWF keep the feature along the coastline. This
may allow for a couple of dry days in East Kentucky during the first
half of next week, mainly Monday night through Tuesday. High
pressure will build into the region these days potentially keeping
daytime shower activity at bay. However, rain will return for the
second half of the week as a cold front approaches the region. More
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will be possible along
and ahead of the front starting Wednesday afternoon. Active weather
will continue through the end of the period and into the following
weekend as another potential surface low pressure system forms in
the Gulf and lifts into our area by Saturday.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side, in the lower 80s, through
the first half of the work week. A cold front will move through the
region on Friday, allowing temperatures to cool down to below normal
values. Low temperatures each night will be in the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Some MVFR fog will be possible through the rest of the night,
though mostly cloudy skies and light southeast winds should limit
it to just in the valleys and areas that saw heavier rainfall.
Any fog will burn off by around 12z, with a return of scattered
convection for Saturday afternoon. Light south to southeast winds
will gradually veer to the southwest through Saturday.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 280132
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
932 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 930 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Have only a few more cells out there this evening, but with
boundaries moving around the area cannot rule out additional
isolated development through midnight. After that, an upper jet now
over Iowa and Missouri will strengthen towards daybreak, placing our
western zones into a more favorable area for additional development.
Combined with a plume of moisture increasing precipitable waters
into the 1.6-1.8 inch range, and we should see at least scattered
coverage west of I-65 by daybreak. The latest local WRF is handling
the current convective development along the KY/TN border well and
it favors more development west of I-65 as well. Thus have issued
a zone update out.

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

GOES-R Convective Initiation product caught on the band of showers
now around KBWG, moving north. The product did not do as well over
Lake Cumberland where a few other small cells have developed.
Adjusted the pop forecast to account for these bands of favored
areas over the near term.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM Fri May 27 2016

The latest analysis showed high pressure at the surface and aloft
off the Carolina coast while a closed low was located in the front
range of the Colorado Rockies. Rich Gulf moisture was streaming
northward from Texas through the mid-Mississippi Valley where
convection has been firing up most of the day. Locally, southerly
winds prevailed with readings up in the mid 80s and a mix of sun and
clouds and so far dry conditions.

Despite the juicy air mass, a lack of a surface trigger or upper
level wave has kept the local area dry so far. And we`re expecting a
mainly dry evening, minus some isolated to scattered showers or
storms lifting northward off the Cumberland plateau. Additional
showers may try to develop across western KY and TN and spread east
into the area later this evening, but confidence on that happening
isn`t high.

Otherwise, plan on another muggy night with lows in the mid 60s to
near 70.

For Saturday, models continue to show an upper level impulse
swinging through the lower Ohio Valley. This should aid in a higher
coverage of showers and storms, though it certainly won`t be a
washout day. Plenty of clouds will hold temps in check, so most
locations will top out in the lower/mid 80s, but depending on timing
a few spots west of I-65 could stay in the 70s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

By late this weekend into Memorial Day, the upper level pattern will
become more zonal. This lack of forcing aloft will limit
precipitation chances, but will still honor the moist air mass with
20 to 30 percent chances for diurnal pop-up showers/storms. Temps
will be solidly above normal, but it will be difficult to get enough
sunshine to crack the 90 degree mark in this pattern.

Heading into the middle to latter portions of next week, we`ll begin
to see amplification in the upper pattern such that a few impulses
may begin to affect the area. The 12z models don`t offer a lot of
confidence that far out, so will side with a model consensus which
advertises 20 to 40 percent chances Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures will likely remain above seasonal normals in the 80s to
perhaps near 90 in a few spots across southern Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 PM EDT Fri May 27 2016

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A few
spotty showers and isolated storms have popped up across southern
KY.  A few of these may pass near BWG or LEX yet this evening, but
they will be very brief and localized.  Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions tonight with just a SCT/BKN high deck and southerly winds
staying up around 5-8 knots.

The latest guidance continues to suggest that Saturday may be mainly
dry, with just a few isolated to widely scattered showers/storms
like we are seeing today.  Therefore, will continue with just VCSH
wording at all sites after 18Z tomorrow.  VCTS may need to be added
at some point once trends in convective coverage and timing become
more clear.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....ZT
Long Term......ZT
Aviation.......KJD




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