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000
FXUS63 KJKL 010758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010758
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 010735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI AND
KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 010735
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NW FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK FRONT
WILL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM CNTRL INTO SEMO
MAY TRIGGER ISOLD CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA. POPS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT SAVE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT
OVER A SMALL PART OF THE KEVV TRI-STATE AREA. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
MONITOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NE 1/3 OF THE AREA WHEN A WEAK
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLD
CONVECTION THEN. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO START OFF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A LARGE
CLOSED LOW SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO. OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ENERGY
SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE AND IMPACTING US BY MID WEEK. THE SIGNAL HAS
BECOME A BIT STRONGER THAT THIS IS A BETTER POSSIBILITY AND MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS FAR AS TIMING IS CONCERNED...BUT
A LOT STILL HAS TO BE RESOLVED BEFORE WE CAN REALLY RAISE POPS INTO
THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

A DECENT LOOKING SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. SOME FINER TUNING WILL EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED TO THE EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT WHEN IT ACTUALLY DOES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...MODELS ARE HINTING AT PRETTY HEFTY QPF
AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THE NEW 00Z ECWMF HAS KIND OF FALLEN OFF THE
BANDWAGON WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL TAKE
A WHILE FOR MODELS TO REALLY GRASP HOW THIS WILL ALL EVOLVE BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE COULD BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
SOMETIME IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
GFS ENESEMBLES ARE PRETTY MESSY AND DO NOT OFFER MUCH HELP WITH THIS
SITUATION EITHER.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY DEPART SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
AND THURSDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE
WEEK SO WILL LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...IT LOOKS PRETTY WARM ON TUESDAY BUT WE
SHOULD COOL DOWN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI AND
KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A LITTLE
MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010705 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010705 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 010703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED QUITE DRY, CONFIRMED BY THE ILN 01.00Z
SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY, PLAN ON SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE HIGHS OBSERVED
FRIDAY. MID AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60, MAKING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

PLAN ON MORE BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A COUPLE
OF DRY, EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD RECENTLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS DONE
WELL IN RECENT VERIFICATION. GFS LESS CONSISTENT BUT SHOWING SIGNS
OF CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF. SO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP.

THOUGH THE PLAINS NLLJ WILL BE WEAK AT FIRST, IT WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO, A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. LOTS OF TIMING CHANGES CAN OCCUR THAT FAR OUT IN THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH, SO THIS MAY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE HIGH END OF
CHANCE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS THE EASTERN TROF FLATTENS A BIT AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO
RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZT
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........ZT



000
FXUS63 KLMK 010703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED QUITE DRY, CONFIRMED BY THE ILN 01.00Z
SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY, PLAN ON SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE HIGHS OBSERVED
FRIDAY. MID AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60, MAKING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

PLAN ON MORE BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A COUPLE
OF DRY, EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD RECENTLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS DONE
WELL IN RECENT VERIFICATION. GFS LESS CONSISTENT BUT SHOWING SIGNS
OF CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF. SO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP.

THOUGH THE PLAINS NLLJ WILL BE WEAK AT FIRST, IT WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO, A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. LOTS OF TIMING CHANGES CAN OCCUR THAT FAR OUT IN THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH, SO THIS MAY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE HIGH END OF
CHANCE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS THE EASTERN TROF FLATTENS A BIT AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO
RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZT
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED QUITE DRY, CONFIRMED BY THE ILN 01.00Z
SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY, PLAN ON SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE HIGHS OBSERVED
FRIDAY. MID AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60, MAKING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

PLAN ON MORE BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A COUPLE
OF DRY, EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD RECENTLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS DONE
WELL IN RECENT VERIFICATION. GFS LESS CONSISTENT BUT SHOWING SIGNS
OF CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF. SO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP.

THOUGH THE PLAINS NLLJ WILL BE WEAK AT FIRST, IT WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO, A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. LOTS OF TIMING CHANGES CAN OCCUR THAT FAR OUT IN THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH, SO THIS MAY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE HIGH END OF
CHANCE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS THE EASTERN TROF FLATTENS A BIT AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO
RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZT
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010703
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

AN EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST TO EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WHILE ALOFT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500
MB HEIGHTS SHOWED TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION REMAINED QUITE DRY, CONFIRMED BY THE ILN 01.00Z
SOUNDING PWAT OF 1.06 INCHES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILED OVER
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

FOR TODAY, PLAN ON SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE SUMMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FIRST DAY OF AUGUST. READINGS WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES, A DEGREE OR TWO WITHIN THE HIGHS OBSERVED
FRIDAY. MID AFTERNOON MIXING WILL BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60, MAKING FOR LOW HUMIDITY AND RATHER PLEASANT SUMMER
CONDITIONS.

PLAN ON MORE BENIGN WEATHER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. A COUPLE
OF DRY, EFFICIENT MIXING DAYS SHOULD LIMIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE
SOUTH. ON SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT. ANY INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER SUNDAY
EVENING. PLAN ON ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 259 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A PERSISTENT LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE WEST/TROF EAST PATTERN, RESULTING IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DRY SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN
OVERHEAD RECENTLY WEAKENS AND SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND HAS DONE
WELL IN RECENT VERIFICATION. GFS LESS CONSISTENT BUT SHOWING SIGNS
OF CATCHING UP TO THE ECMWF. SO, THIS FORECAST PACKAGE LEANS A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF CAMP.

THOUGH THE PLAINS NLLJ WILL BE WEAK AT FIRST, IT WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD EACH SUCCESSIVE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH
EASTWARD THAT WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MCS REMNANTS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. ALSO, A SURFACE COOL FRONT THAT WILL COME
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND REMAIN QUASI-
STATIONARY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION. WEDNESDAY NOW LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST DAY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT. LOTS OF TIMING CHANGES CAN OCCUR THAT FAR OUT IN THE LONG
TERM, THOUGH, SO THIS MAY CHANGE. WILL KEEP POPS AT THE HIGH END OF
CHANCE FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
WARMEST DAY AS THE EASTERN TROF FLATTENS A BIT AND ALLOWS HEIGHTS TO
RISE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVER WHAT WE`VE SEEN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........ZT
LONG TERM.........13
AVIATION..........ZT



000
FXUS63 KJKL 010630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT MAINLY TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE TO THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG
WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE
THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT MAINLY TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE TO THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG
WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE
THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT MAINLY TO
INCORPORATE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE TO THE T/TD GRIDS ALONG
WITH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE
THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 010439
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010439
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010439
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 010439
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1239 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE AND A DRIER THAN NORMAL AIR MASS. PLAN ON VFR CONDITIONS
PAST THE CURRENT PERIOD AS WELL, AS WEATHER PRODUCING SYSTEMS STAY
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........ZT




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010230
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE
THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MAY BE SYM AND
SJS...BOTH OF WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 6 AND
12Z ON SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 010230
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS HAVE SET THE STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT OVERNIGHT AND FOG FORMATION IN OUR VALLEYS AND NEAR BODIES
OF WATER. THE ONLY TWEAKS THAT HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS WERE
THE INGEST OF OBS DATA TO ESTABLISH TRENDS. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE
FORECAST IS BEING LEFT AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MAY BE SYM AND
SJS...BOTH OF WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 6 AND
12Z ON SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 312336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MAY BE SYM AND
SJS...BOTH OF WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 6 AND
12Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 312336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MAY BE SYM AND
SJS...BOTH OF WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 6 AND
12Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 312336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MAY BE SYM AND
SJS...BOTH OF WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 6 AND
12Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 312336
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE FORECAST SO FAR THIS EVENING IS RIGHT ON TRACK. CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND LATE NIGHT FOG ARE STILL ON TAP...ALONG
WITH A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAFS SITES FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MAY BE SYM AND
SJS...BOTH OF WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE SOME MVFR FOG BETWEEN 6 AND
12Z ON SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 312239
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
639 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 640 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........RJS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 312238
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. DUE TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE...SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
AROUND SUNRISE. ANY FOG WOULD BE VERY SHALLOW...INDUCED BY THE MOIST
GROUND. WILL ADD MENTION OF MIFG /SHALLOW GROUND FOG/ AT THE KCGI
AND KPAH SITES AROUND SUNRISE. THE KEVV/KOWB AREA SHOULD HAVE A
LITTLE MORE WIND TO INHIBIT FOG. OTHER THAN A FEW HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS IN THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS...CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 312021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 312021
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A RAINFREE SHORT TERM WITH SEASONAL SUMMER
HEAT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
KS/MO BORDER REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE MS/OH RIVER
VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ENSURE A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH SAT. EVEN WHEN THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY...RIDGING WEST OF THE HIGH INTO THE MID MS RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP RETURN FLOW...AND HENCE HUMIDITY LEVEL PRETTY
MUCH AT BAY. HIGHS GENERALLY LOWER PORTION OF THE 90S THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL GIVE US CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES COOLER.  BY THURSDAY, LATEST ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE GFS
AND CANADIAN, AND FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN, AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE
LATE WEEK FORECAST DRY.  GFS AND CANADIAN BRING A SURFACE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA, WHICH WOULD KEEP SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.  KEPT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR NOW UNTIL MODELS SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/FRONTAL PLACEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311944
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT
AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER
QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311944
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT
AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER
QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311917
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311917
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311917
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311917
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST OVER KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  THE SCATTERING OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS THAT DEVELOPED
DURING THE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING HOURS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, LEAVING FEW IF ANY CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL COMBINE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S TO RESULT IN SOME OF THE NICEST WEATHER OF THE
SUMMER FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

IN THE MEDIUM RANGE, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH A RATHER DRY
START TO THE PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST PERIOD FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE SLIGHTLY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID-UPPER 80S IN THE BLUEGRASS TO THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S IN THE SOUTHWEST.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION.  LATEST MODEL BLENDS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED POP CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...NORTH
OF THE BG/WK PARKWAYS.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS WELL COVERED AND
NOT REALLY MAKING ANY CHANGES HERE.  LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE
MILDER WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 IN MOST LOCATIONS.  MONDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90, ALONG WITH A RETURN OF MUGGY CONDITIONS.

AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORKWEEK, THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RATHER UNSETTLED PATTERN
SETTING UP FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS MID-LEVEL WAVE DROPS FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND EXIT THURSDAY
BRINGING ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY GOOD TEMPORAL TIMING
WITH THE WAVE COMING THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
SPREAD ON THE ACTUAL PATH...WHETHER IT PASSES MORE NORTH OR MORE
SOUTH.  GIVEN THE MODEL BIASES OF THIS SEASON...LIKELY PATH WILL BE
MORE ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
STALLED OUT ACROSS US.  THIS WAVE LOOKS TO PULL OUT THURSDAY WITH A
RETURN OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.  IN GENERAL...HIGHS AT OR BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
LOOK LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
SEE MUCH COOLER READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WHILE LOWER-MID 80S WILL STILL BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS
OF KENTUCKY.

RAINFALL WITH CONVECTION NEXT WEEK MAY BE ON THE HEAVY SIDES AS WELL
WITH A STALLED OUT FRONT AND MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL WAVES PASSING
OVERHEAD.  DISTINCT DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS BETWEEN THE GFS
AND EURO DO EXIST...WITH THE GFS MAINTAINING HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR NORTH...WHILE THE EURO PAINTS THEM RIGHT OVER THE HEART OF THE
OHIO VALLEY.  UTILIZING THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
ROUND OF 2-4 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR
NEXT WEEK.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS IN SOME
AREAS THAT REMAIN QUITE DAMP FROM RECENT RAINS IN THE LAST SEVERAL
WEEKS.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........JBS
LONG TERM.........MJ
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT
AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER
QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY HAS TURNED INTO A BEAUTIFUL SUMMER DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S. DEW POINTS
TODAY ARE AN IMPRESSIVE 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S IN THE VALLEYS AND LOWER 60S ON THE
RIDGES. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS
ANTICIPATED TOWARDS DAWN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SO CAN EXPECT SIMILAR HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
INCREASE IN SOME CLOUD COVER TOMORROW EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
FALLS APART AND PASSES THROUGH OUR AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE
AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT
AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES. TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER
QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311751
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1251 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

FAIR WEATHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...GM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD
GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER
VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD
GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER
VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

TODAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SUNNY AND COMFORTABLE SUMMER DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. HIGHS SHOULD TOP
OUT IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THAT BEING SAID...FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK SO JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD
GRIDS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SCATTERED CU AT 5K FEET BUT
EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR QUITE A COOL AND
CALM NIGHT...AND ALONG WITH CALM WINDS...SOME MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES TOWARDS DAWN. BUT CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE DEEPER
VALLEYS...LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WEATHER WISE...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
- KSDF 311029
WRKAVN

ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........JBS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 311719
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
119 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...
- KSDF 311029
WRKAVN

ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

BENIGN WEATHER FOR THIS TAF PERIOD AS DRY AIR AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAIL.  FEW-SCT CUMULUS TODAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
SETTING SUN, LEAVING LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.  EAST-WEST
AXIS OF SURFACE RIDGE BISECTS KENTUCKY CURRENTLY.  AS THIS DRIFTS
SOUTH, PREDOMINANT WIND FLOW WILL BECOME NW UNDER 5 KTS AT ALL
SITES.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JSD
AVIATION..........JBS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET... SOME
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...
THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AGAIN
LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET... SOME
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...
THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AGAIN
LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET... SOME
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...
THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AGAIN
LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 311435
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1035 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS AND REMOVE FOG FROM THE
ZONES. SHOULD BE A SUNNY AND BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET... SOME
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...
THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AGAIN
LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET... SOME
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...
THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AGAIN
LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 311150 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
T/TD OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO BEEFED UP THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR THE WX GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET... SOME
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SJS AND SYM TAF SITES THROUGH
13Z...ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE
LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT...
THERE COULD BE MORE PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS...AGAIN
LIKELY NOT AFFECTING MOST OF THE ACTUAL TAF SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311143
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 311143
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



000
FXUS63 KPAH 311143
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DRIER AIR IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE...MOSTLY OUT OF
THE NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT QUITE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 311030
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310753 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO EAST KENTUCKY FROM THE WEST. THIS HAS CLEARED THE SKY OF ANY
CLOUDS WHILE THE DRIER AIR IS LIMITING THE FOG DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.
IT IS ALSO SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE WITH READINGS RANGING FROM NEAR 70 ON THE RIDGES TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. DEWPOINTS SHOW A BIT MORE ROOM
FOR TEMPS TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT TO CALM.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS THEY SHOW TROUGHING DEEPENING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND EXTENDING ITS INFLUENCE SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME SLOW AND GENTLE HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY MINOR BITS OF ENERGY MOVING PAST IN BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE NAM IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH LATER
IN THE PERIOD THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS. ACCORDINGLY...WILL FAVOR
MORE OF A MODEL BLEND THAT DISCOUNTS THE NAM/S SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE UNDER THE BENIGN CONTROL OF HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS DEFINITION
SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF DRY AIR. THE REINFORCED HIGH WILL KEEP PLEASANT WEATHER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE COOLER NIGHTS UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SUPPORT SOME LIMITED PATCHY FOG IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING.

USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO SATURDAY.
DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES ONCE THE
INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE
WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST. WITH THE TROUGH STILL DIGGING...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVES OR MAIN TRACK WILL STILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OR OVER THE THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO WILL EXPECT A DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WITH SURFACE HIGH IN PLACE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED
AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST DIGS WITH ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH TO IMPACT THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON TUESDAY SLOWS AND BECOMES A WEST TO
EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS FEATURE THEN
BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THROUGH THE
TUESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY.

THIS DOES POSE A PROBLEM THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE GFS AND EURO ARE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN TIMING BUT THE SUPER BLEND WOULD SUGGEST A
BUSY PERIOD EACH DAY. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER
BLEND SOLUTION BUT ADD SOME DIURNAL TRENDS TO THE FORECAST. THIS
PATTERN IN PLACE DOES MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S MAINLY
TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET...
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SME...SJS...AND SYM TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...THANKS TO
LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310641
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRIDAY 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS
DUE TO MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310641
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRIDAY 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS
DUE TO MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310641
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRIDAY 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS
DUE TO MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KPAH 310641
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT DURING THE SHORT TERM...WITH GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE SFC REFLECTION AS MINOR IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...A SOMEWHAT MORE NOTICEABLE IMPULSE IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO INCREASE THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT A
BIT...ENCOURAGING MORE OF A SRLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE DEWPOINTS. MID LEVEL
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS NRN PARTS OF SRN IL
AND SWRN IND. ELSEWHERE...THERE WILL BE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN
THE CLOUD COVER.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...POSSIBLY MID 90S WEST
OF THE MS RIVER...BUT THE FACT THAT DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY OUT OF THE 70S WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE FOR MORE COMFORTABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 60S...EXCEPT
SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY LOW
CENTERS NEAR THE CANADIAN PACIFIC COAST AND OVER FAR EAST CANADA.
THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE
OVER THE WEST CONUS. EITHER WAY...A QUASI NW FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION. A FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF RUNS VS. THE
OTHER MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS YESTERDAY THAT PUSHED IT ON THROUGH.
THE DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS ARE STILL NOTABLE WITH RESPECT TO PERIODS
OF BETTER MOISTURE/LIFT AND RESULTANT QPF. THIS IS NOT SURPRISING IN
THIS FLOW PATTERN GIVEN THE LACK OF DISCERNIBLE FEATURES ALOFT.
PUTTING DETAILS IN POPS AT THIS POINT IS AN EXERCISE IN FUTILITY.
THUS WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.
UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRIDAY 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS
DUE TO MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
WILL GIVE US A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY WITH WHICH TO END JULY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

A WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON FROM ILLINOIS TO OHIO. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AND BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM GETS THIS FAR
SOUTHEAST THE SUN WILL BE SETTING AND WE`LL BE LOSING WHAT LITTLE
INSTABILITY WE HAD. ALSO, ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL BE SPARSE. SO,
NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED IN THE LMK CWA FROM THIS SYSTEM OTHER THAN
PERHAPS A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN INDIANA.

ON SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL REASSERT ITSELF,
RESULTING IN ANOTHER NICE DAY, QUITE SIMILAR TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

WELL...THE LONG TERM PATTERN IS DRY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A WEAK
FRONT BECOMES ELONGATED ACROSS THE AREA TUE-THU TIME FRAME BRINGING
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE PICTURE.  ALOFT, HERCULEAN RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ROCKIES TO BITTERROOTS AND MOST OF THE WESTERN US
WITH A NORTHWEST PATTERN ALOFT MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL KEEP PLEASANT AIRMASS
OVER NE USA AND EASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA.

SAT NIGHT THRU MONDAY...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE APPALACHIANS
CHANGING WINDS BACK TO SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASING HUMIDITIES ACROSS
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMALS TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
AND THRU TIME THOSE DEW POINTS CREEPING UPWARDS. AFTER A NICE
RESPITE FROM SULTRY SUMMER AIRMASS, PWATS COME BACK OVER 1 INCH ON
MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 89-94 RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.

MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...

NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL HELP BEGIN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM LAKE ERIE TO IND TO SCOTTSBLUFF NATIONAL
MONUMENT.  THIS WILL BRING SOME ISOLD MCS CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS
CLOSE TO THE NE TIER OF COUNTIES IN IN AND PERHAPS NRN BLUEGRASS
COUNTIES.  MAY ADD ISOLATED POPS UP AGAINST ILN AND IND.

TUESDAY LATE DAY THRU FRIDAY...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON
FRONTAL POSITION, AMOUNT OF MOISTURE, ETC. THIS BOUNDARY WILL  SERVE
AS THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. FOR NOW AM KEEPING
CHANCE POPS WED AND THU ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE PATTERN EVOLVES AND THE MODELS
DEAL WITH CONSISTENCY ISSUES.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........13
LONG TERM.........JDG
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310540 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY...TEMP...AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET...
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SME...SJS...AND SYM TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...THANKS TO
LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310540 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY...TEMP...AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET...
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SME...SJS...AND SYM TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...THANKS TO
LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310540 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY...TEMP...AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET...
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SME...SJS...AND SYM TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...THANKS TO
LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310540 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY...TEMP...AND DEWPOINT
GRIDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO
TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A FEW CLOUDS AT 5K FEET...
SOME MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SME...SJS...AND SYM TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...THANKS TO
LARGER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN EVERYWHERE AFTER 13Z...WITH
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13



000
FXUS63 KLMK 310509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 109 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

A DRY ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE AND WILL KEEP THE TAFS VFR THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT, AND FROM THE
NNW AROUND 6-8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT/PAH
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT/PAH
AVIATION..........13




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310400
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS DUE TO
MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SMITH




000
FXUS63 KPAH 310400
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS WIND FIELDS REMAIN
LIGHT IN THE MIDST OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WFO PAH TAF SITES.

UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FORECAST WITH THE FRIDAY
06Z TAF ISSUANCE. CHANGE FOR EACH FORECAST GROUP IN TAF IS DUE TO
MAINLY DUE TO REQUIRED WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION CHANGES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...SMITH



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310254 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEYS DIPPING
INTO THE 50S. MAINLY ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT
FOR A QUICKER DROP OFF WITHIN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 310009 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. DAYTIME CU IS
DRYING UP...WITH JUST A TOUCH OF HIGH AND THIN CIRRUS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEW POINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE AMPLIFIED.
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME
CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING
NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL
MEANDER TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH
THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A
FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED.
DEW POINTS MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S FOR VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS
GUIDANCE ALSO SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF
THE LARGER CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEW POINTSAND
HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS WILL DIMINISH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 08 AND 13Z...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT ANY IFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL BE MORE RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AFTER 13Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON TAP.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 302255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY AT KBWG.
THAT HIGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........RJS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 302255
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
655 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE SUN
LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IS
ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS
TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT INSTABILITY
CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HAVE A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBY AT KBWG.
THAT HIGH IS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAK NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........RJS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 302008
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 302008
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 302008
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE KS/MO BORDER REGION IS
RIDGING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
IT IS PROVIDING MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT OF RECENT
DAYS...AS WE BEGAN TODAY WITH LOW 60S DEW POINTS. THEY SHOULD HOVER
THERE...OR JUST SLIGHTLY CREEP UPWARD INTO THE MID 60S...BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL STILL BE A WELCOMED RELIEF ON THE INDEX SCALE
WITH AIR TEMPERATURE HIGHS DAILY IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90. NIGHT
TIME LOWS WILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE DEW POINTS...RANGING FROM THE MID
TO PERHAPS UPPER 60S BY THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MOST OF THE SUMMER...THE FORECAST WILL
REVOLVE AROUND SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
STATES. PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES WILL PLAY A GREATER ROLE IN OUR WEATHER THAN RECENT WEEKS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE PLAINS RIDGE. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY...BUT A SHORTWAVE MIGRATING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION COULD BRING PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 64
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
IN THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DRY BIAS IN DEW
POINT FORECASTS THIS SUMMER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE
SOIL MOISTURE FROM NEAR RECORD MONTHLY RAINFALL.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. MODEL TIMING
VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT OVER OUR
REGION TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE 12Z GFS/GEFS...WHICH TAKES THE FRONT SOUTH OF OUR
REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE FRONT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE FASTER GFS/GEFS...HIGH TEMPS
WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

OTHER THAN SOME HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS...CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. DRY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
NEARLY CALM TONIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL REMAIN EXCELLENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KLMK 301928
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE
SUN LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
IS ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT
INSTABILITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REAMINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........MEFFERT




000
FXUS63 KLMK 301928
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
328 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...

NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE SHORT TERM AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN THOUGH TEMPS IN THE AFTN WILL BE QUITE
WARM, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK AND SHOULD REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIRLY PLEASANT EVENINGS ONCE THE
SUN LOWERS.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM WILL COME WITH THE
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IN THE TUE/WED TIME FRAME.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST RIGHT NOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...AS EXTENDED MODELS DIVERGE WITH THIS SOLUTION. WILL
INCREASE POPS INTO THE CHC CAT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES IN THAT
TIME FRAME...BUT WILL NOT GO TOO HIGH UNTIL BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT
IS ESTABLISHED. MID/UPPER LIFT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT
THIS TIME, BUT BULK SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING. THUS, MAY NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS IF DECENT
INSTABILITY CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED.

FRONT WILL LIKELY CLEAR THE REGION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD /THU/,
WHICH WOULD BRING A RETURN TO RAINFREE/COOLER CONDITIONS BY THAT
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF UPDATE)...

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NLY WINDS TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE REAMINS IN CONTROL.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM........MEFFERT
LONG TERM.........MEFFERT
AVIATION..........MEFFERT



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301912
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEWPOINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFIED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER
TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS AM ARE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF THE LARGER
CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. VFR FOG MAY AFFECT LOZ...SME...SJS AND SYM DURING
THE 8Z TO 13Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...THE FOG COULD REDUCE VIS TO
IFR... OR PERHAPS TO AIRPORT MINS AT SOME OF THE NON TAF
LOCATIONS. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...GIVING
WAY TO VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301912
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION AND
EXTENDING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE
SFC...A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE AREA LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY
THIS MORNING...CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. A
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AND IS USHERING DRIER AIR ON NW FLOW. DEWPOINTS
ARE AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN KY...WITH LOW TO MID 50S
OVER PARTS OF INDIANA.

THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFIED. THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND BECOME CENTERED
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH RIDGING NORTH BUILDING NORTH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED LOW WILL MEANDER
TO FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE
AXIS OF THE TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING BY IN THE FLOW SHOULD BRING NOTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS FROM TIME TIME. A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES SHOULD TRACK ACROSS
ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THE TRAILING
MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT POSSIBLY DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES LATE FRI NIGHT.

WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN TONIGHT...COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS...UP TO
10 DEGREES OR MORE COLDER THAN THIS AM ARE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS
MOVING INTO THE NORTH SUGGEST A FEW LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S FOR
VALLEYS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTN PARKWAY. COOP MOS GUIDANCE ALSO
SUPPORTS THOSE NUMBERS. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD
ALSO FAVOR SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING ALONG A FEW OF THE LARGER
CREEKS AND NEAR AREA RIVERS AND LAKES.

FRIDAY SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS
AND HUMIDITIES COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN MOST LOCATIONS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TO TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
VALLEYS...WHERE THE DRIER AIR WILL BE A TAD SLOWER TO MOVE
IN...AND LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER COMPARED TO
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BIT OF VALLEY FOG
LATE TONIGHT. VFR FOG MAY AFFECT LOZ...SME...SJS AND SYM DURING
THE 8Z TO 13Z WINDOW. HOWEVER...THE FOG COULD REDUCE VIS TO
IFR... OR PERHAPS TO AIRPORT MINS AT SOME OF THE NON TAF
LOCATIONS. ANY FOG SHOULD LIFT AND DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...GIVING
WAY TO VFR IN ALL LOCATIONS TO END THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301846
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MONDAY KEEPING OUR
FORECAST DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY. MODELS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THIS FRONT FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AND
THIS LOWERS FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. WHILE THE GFS INDICATES A QUICK
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRY
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE GEM AND ECMWF INDICATE A
STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH OR OVERHEAD WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A MODEL BLEND GIVES SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND THAT SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
NEXT WEEK WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT CENTERED WELL TO OUR WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301535 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301535 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND TOWARD THE
CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS. DRIER AIR HAS BEGUN TO FILTER IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE OH VALLEY. WITH THE FRONT DEPARTING...THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR CONVECTION HAS ENDED. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE VA
BORDER ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO CU AND MIX OUT...FROM THE
TN VALLEY REGION AND FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY... WITH REMAINING HOURLY GRIDS ALSO FRESHENED UP BASED
ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301311 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

HOURLY POPS...AS WELL AS TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS WERE UPDATED
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. BEHIND THIS
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION.

OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 301122
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CLOUDS WERE A BIT MORE EXTENSIVE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED FOR THIS
MORNING...AND HAVE SLOWED THE CLEARING PROCESS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

EARLY THIS MORNING A COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM NEAR KBNA TO
KCMH...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. IT WILL PASS THROUGH THE JKL
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. IT WILL ARRIVE AT AN UNFAVORABLE TIME
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT IT WILL NOT BE RULED OUT...AND A
20 PERCENT POP WAS USED. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND ALLOW FOR COOLER LOW TEMPS ON
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SOME VALLEYS PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE MAIN FEATURES
AND LONGWAVE PATTERN ALOFT DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONTINENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH...RUNNING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES...BUT A STRENGTHENING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY IN NORTHWEST FLOW BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. THIS WAVE PASSES THROUGH
EAST KENTUCKY BY EARLY MONDAY...THOUGH ADDITIONAL BITS OF ENERGY
WILL TRAIL BEHIND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS MOVE THE CANADIAN
TROUGH TO THE EAST A BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. DESPITE THIS...
THOUGH...THE LATTER MODEL DOES BRING HIGHER HEIGHTS INTO KENTUCKY
FOR WEDNESDAY AS ITS HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW IS MORE SHALLOW THAN THE
OTHERS. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD AND
GREATER UNCERTAINTY LATER ON WILL FAVOR A GENERAL BLEND SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED RESPITE FROM THE WORST
HUMIDITY OF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE HIGHER MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION AT BAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER FRONT HELPS TO TRIGGER MORE IN THE
WAY OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL
NEARBY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK...KEEPING A THREAT OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE CR GRID BLEND CAME IN REASONABLY WELL WITH THE BULK OF ANY
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE POPS AND SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...DID ADJUST THE LOWS A BIT EACH
NIGHT TO CAPTURE MINOR TO MODERATE TERRAIN EFFECTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

CONDITIONS VARIED FROM LIFR TO VFR EARLY THIS MORNING....BUT WERE
MAINLY IFR AND MVFR. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR GENERALLY FROM NW TO
SE TODAY...WITH VFR EXPECTED JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. GOOD CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN LAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH JUST A BIT OF VALLEY FOG LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB



000
FXUS63 KPAH 301113
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE PAH
FORECAST AREA. PERSISTENT NWRLY FLOW ALOFT AND NRLY/NWRLY SFC
WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NOTICEABLE DROP IN DEWPOINTS FROM THE TEPID
70S TO THE LOWER 60S...AND A MODERATION OF TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL
REMAIN STABLE...IN THE LOWER 90S SOUTH AND UPPER 80S NORTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING PUNCH OF DRIER AIR EARLY SAT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS...A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...AND SOME POOLING
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. NO MEASURABLE PCPN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FEATURE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEN THE
OPS ECMWF DIVERGES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM AND ECENS/GEFS/GEPS/JMA/NAEFS MEANS WANT TO
BUILD/KEEP A MORE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE WEST 1/2 OF THE U.S. WITH
STRONGER NW FLOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR REGION DAYS 6-7. HOWEVER THE
ECMWF WANTS WANTS TO BRING ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
RIDGE...AND NEVER ALLOW IT TO BUILD AS FAR NORTH. IT PROJECTS SOME
OF THAT ENERGY WILL HEAD ESE TOWARD THE REGION. THE RESULT IS LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TUE/WED...QUICKER RETURN
FLOW AND MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE WNW. THE GFS AND AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE GEM SUGGEST MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS AND MORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE TUE/WED. WPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
ECMWF/ECENS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY.

WE WILL BLEND THE SOLUTIONS AND NOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THE ECMWF
PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEIGHT WILL BE GIVEN
THE OTHER MODEL DEPICTIONS. SO IN TERMS OF POPS...HAVE IT DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF PROMINENT
FEATURES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT (ACKNOWLEDGING WE CAN NEVER RULE OUT
ISOLD CONVECTION / 10 PERCENT). THE MODELS BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY. AGAIN THE GFS/GEM HAVE A GREATER SOUTHWARD PUSH
THAN THE ECMWF. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT. THE
REASON FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A FUNCTION OF MINOR WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF OPS MODEL.

TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF MOS AS WELL SINCE WE ARE NOT COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTING THE ECMWF. ITS MOS VALUES ARE WARMER FROM TUESDAY ON VS.
THE COOLER MEX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN TERMS OF WHICH MODEL WILL PAN
OUT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. NRLY SFC
WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER
AIR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DB




000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 301032
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

A rather benign and seasonal period is in store for the Ohio Valley
through the next couple of days.  A strong surface ridge will remain
in place, bringing mostly sunny skies and northerly winds today.
These northerly winds will usher in slightly cooler temperatures and
a much drier airmass.  In fact, some areas may see dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s this afternoon during peak mixing, which will
feel quite nice given the high humidity values (dewpoints in the
mid/upper 70s) we`ve experienced over the past few days.  Highs
today will be in the mid to upper 80s.

For tonight, skies will remain mostly clear and winds will go mostly
calm as surface ridging continues to nudge into the region.  These
conditions should support a night of pretty good radiational
cooling.  Therefore, will go on the lower end of guidance for low
temperatures which puts them in the low to mid 60s.  Some of the
typically cooler spots may even dip into the 50s tonight!

Friday will nearly be a carbon copy of today.  Mostly sunny skies
will persist with highs once again topping out in the mid and upper
80s, with the typically warm spots (the Louisville metro) pushing
towards 90.  The good news is that dewpoints will once again be very
comfortable as readings will remain in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

As stated in previous discussions, the long term will be dominated
by a western ridge and eastern trof. This will keep our temperatures
from getting out of hand, but will make precipitation forecasts
tricky in the northwest flow regime. In general, though, Gulf and
Atlantic moisture will be suppressed to our south and east, and
Pacific moisture will remain to the north. With southern Indiana and
central Kentucky sitting in between these moisture sources, a drier
rather than wetter forecast is the way to go at this time.

On Saturday a weak cool front will sweep through. Will stick with a
dry forecast due to a lack of moisture in the column, the fact that
the front will be weak and getting weaker, and no obvious upper
shortwave trof to help spark storms.

There has been no run-to-run consistency within the GFS regarding
the passage of a cold front Monday night/Tuesday. The ECMWF has been
showing a steady trend of speeding up fropa, which is also what
happened in the days leading up to the fropa last night. So, will
introduce PoPs into Monday night and keep them going into Tuesday.
This front looks to be our best shot at rain during the long term.
In addition to slightly higher moisture availability, there will be
some upper level divergence to assist in convective development.

It looks like mid/upper flow will become more active next week so
will continue chance PoPs into Wednesday.

Highs each day will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s
with afternoon heat index readings not much worse than air
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 30 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.  A cold front
has now pushed through all sites, bringing much drier low-level air
in its wake.  Therefore, expect just a few passing clouds today with
northerly winds around 10 knots.  Winds will die down tonight with
the setting sun, but the dry low-level airmass will keep things VFR.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........KJD






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