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000
FXUS63 KJKL 240058
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 240058
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

UPDATED THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS AND MODEL TRENDS. NO ZONE UPDATES WILL BE REQUIRED. SENT
UPDATES TO THE WEB AND NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 858 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014


VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JJ






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000
FXUS63 KPAH 232325 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
625 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The surface high has really held down warming this afternoon,
despite plenty of sunshine. It will continue to dominate the
region tonight with relatively light east southeast winds and
mostly clear skies expected in most locations. Temperatures will
be tricky, with potential for radiation cooling to drive
temperatures below guidance. With warm advection aloft, will go
close to guidance, and let the evening shift monitor for
potentially cooler temperatures overnight.

Winds will eventually veer to due south by Thursday afternoon, as
the surface high finally loosens its grip on the region. The 12Z
NAM and the high-resolution WRF runs have slowed down the arrival
and progression of the convection through the area Thursday
afternoon and evening, and they have been followed closely for
timing. Just about all 12Z models have a more intense mid/upper
trough swinging through the area Thursday evening. This will
result in greater forcing than expected yesterday, but the quality
of the low-level moisture and lapse rates aloft are still
questionable.

The slightly slower passage of the front will allow a bit more
time for lower 60s surface dewpoints to reach at least southern
portions of the area, but surface-based instability will still be
highly dependent on the forcing to be released. This should result
in a more linear event, with damaging winds the main concern, but
a stray brief tornado cannot be ruled out even within the line or
line segment.

A supercell or two cannot be ruled out initially as
the convection develops over southeast Missouri around 21Z, and
there could also be an embedded supercell structure within the
line or a line segment into the evening. The mid-level storm-
relative flow will still be rather weak, which would be
detrimental to the persistence of any supercell structures, and a
more robust severe weather event.

Look for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over
southeast Missouri between 21Z and 00Z, and then move across the
remainder of the area as a line or series of line segments
through 06Z. In general, the severe weather threat will weaken as
it moves eastward through the evening. Any heavy rainfall should
be short-lived enough to prevent any major flash flooding
potential with this event.

Winds will become west or west northwest behind the front and
remain west or southwest Friday and Friday night. As for
temperatures, will generally side with the warmer MAV guidance for
highs Thursday and Friday. Leaned toward the milder MET guidance
for lows Thursday night and stayed close to guidance for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The extended period will begin with a sharp ridge aloft and srly
boundary layer flow over the PAH forecast area. Srly low level flow
will be on the increase Sun as a large, nearly stacked, low pressure
system approaches from the Central Plains. There will probably be
enough moisture influx/instability/divergence aloft ahead of the
system to trigger scattered tstms by Sun afternoon across much of
the region. The system should progress ewd Sun night, making
rainfall likely, with perhaps scattered lightning. By Mon, ample
vertical motion/moisture influx/instability is forecast to continue
through the day, with the added forcing of a sfc warm front lifting
nwd through the region, and inducing plentiful tstm activity into
Mon evening.

As to the severe weather possibility, at this time, the med range
models were in reasonable agreement that there will be robust wind
shear aloft by daybreak Mon. However, instability is forecast to be
somewhat limited, and the phasing of best lapse rates and best upper
jet winds do not appear to be ideal in the PAH forecast area, but it
should be better just to the west. Still, this does not rule out
some severe tstm development here, especially during Mon afternoon/
evening.

After Monday, the GFS ensemble members began to spread apart a bit
regarding the placement of the mid level and sfc lows, along with
the deterministic runs of the med range models. Tue should yield
showery conditions with the low pressure system somewhere in the
vicinity, with lesser QPF and still some lightning activity as sfc
winds finally turn to the nw late in the day. By Wed, if the model
solutions remain stable, a mid level trof in the nern conus will
have merged with the low over the PAH forecast area, dropping
heights a significant amount, meaning much cooler temps, and
continued cloudy, showery conditions through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 621 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, however
there could be VCTS at KCGI after 22Z. Variable winds aob 5 knots
will pick up out of the south at 10-14 knots with gusts up to
15-22 knots between 16-19Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 232253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
will remain in control tonight and shift east tomorrow as a low
pressure system approaches. Winds will be light and variable
tonight, shifting from northeasterly to southeasterly by tomorrow
morning. Winds will increase to around 10-12 knots through the day
with a few gusts expected at BWG. Clear skies this evening will
become partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a mid to upper level
cloud deck moves in ahead of the system.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 232253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
653 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. High pressure
will remain in control tonight and shift east tomorrow as a low
pressure system approaches. Winds will be light and variable
tonight, shifting from northeasterly to southeasterly by tomorrow
morning. Winds will increase to around 10-12 knots through the day
with a few gusts expected at BWG. Clear skies this evening will
become partly to mostly cloudy overnight as a mid to upper level
cloud deck moves in ahead of the system.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 232005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...HAL






000
FXUS63 KJKL 232005
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND SOME WEAK RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES.
WITH TIME...THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE RIDGING
INCREASES OVER THE ROCKIES. THE TROUGH THAT HAD MOVED EAST OF THE
AREA STALLS OVER THE EAST COAST AND IS ABLE TO PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE BACK ACROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY MONDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT. A STRONG SYSTEM IS WORKING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE HAVE A NEGATIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROUGH...SO THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME A
CONCERN. ONE OF THE FACTORS WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY IT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE IS QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...SO THINGS
COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
USED THE MODEL BLEND FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND THEN NUDGES THEM TOWARD
THE ECMWF AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS. WITH THE TIMING
ISSUES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST...DID NOT WANT TO GO OUT ON A LIMB.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KPAH 232003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The surface high has really held down warming this afternoon,
despite plenty of sunshine. It will continue to dominate the
region tonight with relatively light east southeast winds and
mostly clear skies expected in most locations. Temperatures will
be tricky, with potential for radiation cooling to drive
temperatures below guidance. With warm advection aloft, will go
close to guidance, and let the evening shift monitor for
potentially cooler temperatures overnight.

Winds will eventually veer to due south by Thursday afternoon, as
the surface high finally loosens its grip on the region. The 12Z
NAM and the high-resolution WRF runs have slowed down the arrival
and progression of the convection through the area Thursday
afternoon and evening, and they have been followed closely for
timing. Just about all 12Z models have a more intense mid/upper
trough swinging through the area Thursday evening. This will
result in greater forcing than expected yesterday, but the quality
of the low-level moisture and lapse rates aloft are still
questionable.

The slightly slower passage of the front will allow a bit more
time for lower 60s surface dewpoints to reach at least southern
portions of the area, but surface-based instability will still be
highly dependent on the forcing to be released. This should result
in a more linear event, with damaging winds the main concern, but
a stray brief tornado cannot be ruled out even within the line or
line segment.

A supercell or two cannot be ruled out initially as
the convection develops over southeast Missouri around 21Z, and
there could also be an embedded supercell structure within the
line or a line segment into the evening. The mid-level storm-
relative flow will still be rather weak, which would be
detrimental to the persistence of any supercell structures, and a
more robust severe weather event.

Look for scattered to numerous thunderstorms to develop over
southeast Missouri between 21Z and 00Z, and then move across the
remainder of the area as a line or series of line segments
through 06Z. In general, the severe weather threat will weaken as
it moves eastward through the evening. Any heavy rainfall should
be short-lived enough to prevent any major flash flooding
potential with this event.

Winds will become west or west northwest behind the front and
remain west or southwest Friday and Friday night. As for
temperatures, will generally side with the warmer MAV guidance for
highs Thursday and Friday. Leaned toward the milder MET guidance
for lows Thursday night and stayed close to guidance for lows
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The extended period will begin with a sharp ridge aloft and srly
boundary layer flow over the PAH forecast area. Srly low level flow
will be on the increase Sun as a large, nearly stacked, low pressure
system approaches from the Central Plains. There will probably be
enough moisture influx/instability/divergence aloft ahead of the
system to trigger scattered tstms by Sun afternoon across much of
the region. The system should progress ewd Sun night, making
rainfall likely, with perhaps scattered lightning. By Mon, ample
vertical motion/moisture influx/instability is forecast to continue
through the day, with the added forcing of a sfc warm front lifting
nwd through the region, and inducing plentiful tstm activity into
Mon evening.

As to the severe weather possibility, at this time, the med range
models were in reasonable agreement that there will be robust wind
shear aloft by daybreak Mon. However, instability is forecast to be
somewhat limited, and the phasing of best lapse rates and best upper
jet winds do not appear to be ideal in the PAH forecast area, but it
should be better just to the west. Still, this does not rule out
some severe tstm development here, especially during Mon afternoon/
evening.

After Monday, the GFS ensemble members began to spread apart a bit
regarding the placement of the mid level and sfc lows, along with
the deterministic runs of the med range models. Tue should yield
showery conditions with the low pressure system somewhere in the
vicinity, with lesser QPF and still some lightning activity as sfc
winds finally turn to the nw late in the day. By Wed, if the model
solutions remain stable, a mid level trof in the nern conus will
have merged with the low over the PAH forecast area, dropping
heights a significant amount, meaning much cooler temps, and
continued cloudy, showery conditions through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through
tonight. East northeast winds this afternoon will veer to east
southeast and become light this evening. As a strong storm system
and cold front approaches Thursday, winds will increase from the
south. Some gusts up to near 20kts will be possible at KCGI by
18Z, but elsewhere the gusts should hold off until after 18Z. A
batch of mid clouds will stream across the area tonight, otherwise
skies will generally be clear.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 231923
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
323 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of the region tonight with
upper level clouds on the increase as a disturbance passes to our
north.  Low temperatures should bottom out in the low to mid 40s
across the region.

For Thursday, upper level ridging will push east into the region
helping temps warm well into the 70s.  Temps may approach 80 by the
KY/TN border under mostly sunny skies.  SE-S sfc winds will increase
to 10-15 mph with some gusts near 20 mph possible Thurs afternoon.

Thurs night a low pressure system will push through the upper
Midwest dragging a cold front through the Ohio Valley.  Storms are
expected to erupt along this front to our west Thurs afternoon and
move east into our region late Thurs evening.  Although generally
speaking storm strength and coverage should be on the decline as
storms move into our region, think that some strong storms may be
possible west of I-65 with gusty winds up to 40 mph possible.  As
convection progresses eastward Thurs night, rumbles of thunder will
still be common but any strong storms should diminish.  Convection
should exit the area during the pre-dawn hours Friday morning.  Low
temps should stay mild in the low to mid 50s Thurs night.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Friday...

Cold frontal boundary will be exiting our eastern CWA at daybreak
Friday. Expect gradually clearing skies and a steady west wind with
temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s. A few models are holding
onto some QPF along the I-75 corridor for a few hours on Friday
morning, displaying a slower trend. However, will keep the forecast
dry for now until a more clear and slower trend can be established
since we have had dry going for a few days now.

Friday Night - Sunday...

Shallow northwest flow aloft will gradually transition to a
progressive upper ridge over the weekend. Will watch as a moisture
starved cold front approaches the Ohio Valley Friday night and
stalls out Saturday. Will continue to leave the forecast dry across
our north as deep moisture is limited and the best forcing with the
wave embedded in the NW flow aloft passes to our north. The
progressive upper ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday,
leading to a warmer and continued dry trend to end the weekend.

Temperatures Saturday may end up being tricky depending on where the
frontal boundary actually stalls and then washes out. Regardless,
lower 70s is a reasonable bet across our north with upper 70s
touching 80 across our south. Sunday should be warmer, at least
across our south, if not the whole CWA, however will keep the
gradient in to account for uncertainty in frontal position. Lows 70s
north to around 80 south. Lows will be around 50 Friday night, and
slightly milder in the low and mid 50s Saturday night.

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

Confidence lowers significantly as we start the new work week as
models struggle with the individual details surrounding the
evolution of a complex upper pattern. What can be said with some
confidence is that we will enter a much wetter and cooler setup
heading into mid week as a closed upper low wobbles slowly eastward
against blocking flow downstream. The best chances for showers or
storms will begin to increase by Sunday evening as a reinforced warm
front pushes up through the area from the southeast. This is a
slightly slower trend likely due to the downstream blocking feature.

Generally speaking, it appears the Ohio Valley will be caught in a
baroclinic zone between the closed upper low to our west and gyres
of energy rotating around a closed upper low over the northern
Atlantic. A look at the 500 mb heights reveals one of the more
impressive cols i`ve seen for Monday night Tuesday. At this point,
the Ohio Valley looks to be on the southern side of the col, with
plenty of moisture transport ahead of the main low to our west on
deep southwest flow. Will call for likely chances of showers and
storms during this time. Being on the warm side of the boundary, we
should be able to still see low and even mid 70s, however diurnal
trends may get smaller and smaller each day as we head into mid
week.

Upper low looks to wobble somewhere over eastern CONUS into midweek,
with the center closer to the Ohio Valley. By Wednesday, highs in
the 50s and lows back into the 30s are not out of the question,
along with continued scattered to numerous shower chances.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THERE WAS VERY LITTLE FROST REPORTED THIS MORNING IN EASTERN KY.
HOWEVER...WITH CURRENT DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER
30S...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT...WILL
CONTINUE WITH A FORECAST OF PATCHY FROST. WE EXPECT SHELTERED VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT...BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...AND THIS WOULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR FROST FORMATION. FROST IS MENTIONED IN A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...AND WITH PATCHY NATURE OF ANY FROST TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE NO ADVISORY ISSUED.

FOR THURSDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND THE ENHANCED THREAT FOR WILD FIRES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY WITH SOME SPOTS DOWN TO 20
PERCENT OR EVEN A LITTLE LOWER. HOWEVER...WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER
10 MPH FOR MOST AREAS...AND LOOK ESPECIALLY LIGHT IN THE EAST WHERE
THE LOWEST HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COLD FRONT WHICH
IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY. THE MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TIMING ISSUES AND HOW LONG TO HOLD
ONTO RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM...12Z GEM...AND 00Z ECMWF. USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND HELD ONTO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. STABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A
50 KNOT 8H JET IMPACTING THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...AND SOME UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT AS WELL. COULD HAVE SOME
THUNDER WITH ANY SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WHILE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE IN THE 60 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT...WILL ONLY CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A NEW LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 231736
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
136 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 130 PM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Sfc high pressure will remain in control of our region through the
TAF period.  Expect VFR flying conditions with upper level clouds
gradually increasing tonight and tomorrow from a disturbance to our
north.  Winds will be from the NE today under 7 kts becoming light
and easterly tonight.  Then expect winds to pick up into the 6-8 kt
range from the SE by mid morning tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 231713
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high Pressure ridging south into the FA will maintain dry
conditions into Thursday before the ridge moves east and winds
become southerly and advect moisture into the FA ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The latest GFS keeps slightly drier air in the FA longer than the
previous run but then becomes nearly identical with the previous run
in the eastward progression of precip thereafter/by Thursday evening
with the 500mb trough axis to about Dexter MO 00Z Friday. By 06Z
Friday both it and the weak surface cold front will be east of the
FA. The 00Z ECMWF remains about 3 to 4 hours slower than the GFS and
NAM and will lean toward the faster solution which also lines up
with previous forecasts.

QPF amounts still appear fairly modest with averages of 1/3 to 1/2
inch forecast. The greater amounts are likely across mainly the
northern part of the FA...closer to better upper level dynamics.  In
addition, instability will be fairly decent going into Thursday
evening when the system moves across the FA and for now SPC has a
Slight Risk immediately south of the western half of our FA.

Surface High Pressure will be building across the area late Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the weak cold front. Winds will
quickly back to the southwest Friday as the highest surface pressure
passes to our south. As a result...little change is expected in


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Active weather expected in the long term. Regardless of the
noticeable model variance, with respect the the movement of an
upper low from the Rockies into the central states, and the
positioning of a surface front somewhere across/north of the
area, convection is pretty much a given. It will be just a matter
of timing and coverage. The past two runs of the GFS Ensemble mean
depicts reasonably, best chances should arrive late Sunday into
Sunday night, and shift east across the area early next week with
the approach of the upper low. This is not a classic heavy rain
pattern. But multiple rounds of convection, should they line out
favorably, could result in some heavy rain across the CWFA. Strong
storms cannot be ruled out at some point. Best chance may be
Monday should we destabilize enough. That is when a branch of the
upper jet SE of the parent H5 low moves over top of the area
coincident with potentially decent destabilization. It`s possible
Sunday as well (strong storms), mainly SE Missouri westward, but
wind fields are weaker. Meanwhile, given PoPs were removed for
Saturday, will not flip flop that. Not convinced we won`t see
anything (even if isolated at best), given we destabilize by mid
to late afternoon, esp SW 1/3 of the area and with the front
around. Moisture is certainly marginal, and mid level support is
hard to find. Chances Saturday night should be slight as well, and
primarily limited to the NW 1/2 of the area. Temperatures will
continue to be tricky. A blend approach would seem reasonable to
minimize swings due to model variance. However, hedging warmer
seems to be the appropriate trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the region through
tonight. East northeast winds this afternoon will veer to east
southeast and become light this evening. As a strong storm system
and cold front approaches Thursday, winds will increase from the
south. Some gusts up to near 20kts will be possible at KCGI by
18Z, but elsewhere the gusts should hold off until after 18Z. A
batch of mid clouds will stream across the area tonight, otherwise
skies will generally be clear.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...RLS
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...DRS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231638
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MADE MINOR GRID CHANGES TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS BLENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231638
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MADE MINOR GRID CHANGES TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS BLENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231638
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MADE MINOR GRID CHANGES TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS BLENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KJKL 231638
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

MADE MINOR GRID CHANGES TO INCORPORATE LATEST OBS BLENDING INTO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST. THERE ARE NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...HAL







000
FXUS63 KLMK 231514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 231514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 231514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 231514
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1114 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Updated the forecast to increase afternoon high temps a few
degrees.  Plenty of sunshine is expected today, but cooler drier air
sinking south with sfc high pressure should hold high temps in the
60s for the most part although 70 degrees will be possible over
south central KY.  Went a few degrees over MOS guidance with this
update.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 231202
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
702 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

UPDATE...
Issued at 702 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high Pressure ridging south into the FA will maintain dry
conditions into Thursday before the ridge moves east and winds
become southerly and advect moisture into the FA ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The latest GFS keeps slightly drier air in the FA longer than the
previous run but then becomes nearly identical with the previous run
in the eastward progression of precip thereafter/by Thursday evening
with the 500mb trough axis to about Dexter MO 00Z Friday. By 06Z
Friday both it and the weak surface cold front will be east of the
FA. The 00Z ECMWF remains about 3 to 4 hours slower than the GFS and
NAM and will lean toward the faster solution which also lines up
with previous forecasts.

QPF amounts still appear fairly modest with averages of 1/3 to 1/2
inch forecast. The greater amounts are likely across mainly the
northern part of the FA...closer to better upper level dynamics.  In
addition, instability will be fairly decent going into Thursday
evening when the system moves across the FA and for now SPC has a
Slight Risk immediately south of the western half of our FA.

Surface High Pressure will be building across the area late Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the weak cold front. Winds will
quickly back to the southwest Friday as the highest surface pressure
passes to our south. As a result...little change is expected in
temps Friday.

LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Active weather expected in the long term. Regardless of the
noticeable model variance, with respect the the movement of an
upper low from the Rockies into the central states, and the
positioning of a surface front somewhere across/north of the
area, convection is pretty much a given. It will be just a matter
of timing and coverage. The past two runs of the GFS Ensemble mean
depicts reasonably, best chances should arrive late Sunday into
Sunday night, and shift east across the area early next week with
the approach of the upper low. This is not a classic heavy rain
pattern. But multiple rounds of convection, should they line out
favorably, could result in some heavy rain across the CWFA. Strong
storms cannot be ruled out at some point. Best chance may be
Monday should we destabilize enough. That is when a branch of the
upper jet SE of the parent H5 low moves over top of the area
coincident with potentially decent destabilization. It`s possible
Sunday as well (strong storms), mainly SE Missouri westward, but
wind fields are weaker. Meanwhile, given PoPs were removed for
Saturday, will not flip flop that. Not convinced we won`t see
anything (even if isolated at best), given we destabilize by mid
to late afternoon, esp SW 1/3 of the area and with the front
around. Moisture is certainly marginal, and mid level support is
hard to find. Chances Saturday night should be slight as well, and
primarily limited to the NW 1/2 of the area. Temperatures will
continue to be tricky. A blend approach would seem reasonable to
minimize swings due to model variance. However, hedging warmer
seems to be the appropriate trend.

AVIATION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with only scattered high
clouds expected during the TAF forecast period through this evening
with some increase in mid to high clouds thereafter. Winds will be 5
to 10 knots today and then relax to nearly calm levels tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RS
LONG TERM....CN






000
FXUS63 KJKL 231155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR/GREIF





000
FXUS63 KJKL 231155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE
HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAY/S HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAY/S FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 231050
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Light N-NE winds and clear skies through the day as high pressure
over Wisconsin continues to build south into the Ohio Valley.
Surface ridge axis will work its way into eastern Kentucky this
evening, initially shifting surface winds to easterly but opening
the door for return flow aloft. Could see mid-level ceilings in SDF
and LEX tonight as a warm front sets up to our north, but no
significant operational impacts are expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 230718
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Surface high Pressure ridging south into the FA will maintain dry
conditions into Thursday before the ridge moves east and winds
become southerly and advect moisture into the FA ahead of an
approaching cold front.

The latest GFS keeps slightly drier air in the FA longer than the
previous run but then becomes nearly identical with the previous run
in the eastward progression of precip thereafter/by Thursday evening
with the 500mb trough axis to about Dexter MO 00Z Friday. By 06Z
Friday both it and the weak surface cold front will be east of the
FA. The 00Z ECMWF remains about 3 to 4 hours slower than the GFS and
NAM and will lean toward the faster solution which also lines up
with previous forecasts.

QPF amounts still appear fairly modest with averages of 1/3 to 1/2
inch forecast. The greater amounts are likely across mainly the
northern part of the FA...closer to better upper level dynamics.  In
addition, instability will be fairly decent going into Thursday
evening when the system moves across the FA and for now SPC has a
Slight Risk immediately south of the western half of our FA.

Surface High Pressure will be building across the area late Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the weak cold front. Winds will
quickly back to the southwest Friday as the highest surface pressure
passes to our south. As a result...little change is expected in
temps Friday.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Active weather expected in the long term. Regardless of the
noticeable model variance, with respect the the movement of an
upper low from the Rockies into the central states, and the
positioning of a surface front somewhere across/north of the
area, convection is pretty much a given. It will be just a matter
of timing and coverage. The past two runs of the GFS Ensemble mean
depicts reasonably, best chances should arrive late Sunday into
Sunday night, and shift east across the area early next week with
the approach of the upper low. This is not a classic heavy rain
pattern. But multiple rounds of convection, should they line out
favorably, could result in some heavy rain across the CWFA. Strong
storms cannot be ruled out at some point. Best chance may be
Monday should we destabilize enough. That is when a branch of the
upper jet SE of the parent H5 low moves over top of the area
coincident with potentially decent destabilization. It`s possible
Sunday as well (strong storms), mainly SE Missouri westward, but
wind fields are weaker. Meanwhile, given PoPs were removed for
Saturday, will not flip flop that. Not convinced we won`t see
anything (even if isolated at best), given we destabilize by mid
to late afternoon, esp SW 1/3 of the area and with the front
around. Moisture is certainly marginal, and mid level support is
hard to find. Chances Saturday night should be slight as well, and
primarily limited to the NW 1/2 of the area. Temperatures will
continue to be tricky. A blend approach would seem reasonable to
minimize swings due to model variance. However, hedging warmer
seems to be the appropriate trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with only scattered high
clouds expected during the TAF forecast period through this evening
with some increase in mid to high clouds thereafter. Winds will be 5
to 10 knots during today and then relax to nearly calm levels
tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KJKL 230715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 230715 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE PATTERN
AS IT SLOWS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. INITIALLY PROGRESSIVE...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RIDGING OVER KENTUCKY WILL GIVE WAY TO A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE
OF TWO MINDS WITH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
AND NAM ARE FASTER AND FLATTER THAN THE CMC AND ECMWF. THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF THIS TROUGH SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER
BLEND. THIS TROUGH DOES GO THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY EVENING
FOLLOWED BY FLAT RIDING MOVING INTO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND.
THIS RIDGE WILL BECOME PUMPED BY SUNDAY MORNING UP BY A DEEP TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IT IS THIS TROUGH THAT WILL
DRIVE THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WELL
INTO NEXT WEEK. AT THE START...THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER WITH THIS LOW THAN THE GFS AND CMC. HOWEVER...FOR THE ECMWF
THAT SPEED IS TRANSLATED MORE NORTH INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE CUTTING
OFF THEIR LOW OVER FAR WEST KANSAS AT 00Z MONDAY. MEANWHILE...EAST
KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY NEAR NORMAL...OR JUST ABOVE...TEMPERATURES TO
START THE NEW WORK WEEK THANKS TO DOWNSTREAM RIDGING. THAT STARTS TO
CHANGE LATER MONDAY AND ON TUESDAY...THOUGH...AS THE LARGE CLOSED
LOW AMBLES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SPREADING HEIGHT FALLS
INTO KENTUCKY ALONG WITH EJECTING BITS OF ENERGY. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH THE GFS HAVING A SEEMINGLY
MORE REASONABLE DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER PAH WHILE THE ECMWF IS CLOSER
TO THE QUAD CITIES. AT THAT POINT...THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS ALMOST
IMMATERIAL WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND SPIRALLY BITS OF ENERGY DOMINATING
THE MID LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NATION...AS THE
PATTERN CRAWLS TO A HALT. FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND IS REASONABLE...BUT WILL ALSO LEAN A TAD TOWARD THE MORE
CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A QUICK SHOT
OF NEEDED RAINFALL. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY...
BUT DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP READINGS ON THE WARM
SIDE OF NORMAL. THE LARGE SFC LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST WILL
ATTEMPT TO LIFT A WARM FRONT NORTH THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY
WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY WEST. A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES
INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SWEEPS ANOTHER FRONT INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO
FOCUS THE BUILDING GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND MAKE FOR A DAMP
AND EVENTUALLY COOL MID WEEK PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE LOW TAKES UP RESIDENCE...NEARLY OVERHEAD. THE
ONLY SILVER LINING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK OF CLOUDY...WET...AND COOL
WX WILL BE THE AFFECT IT HAS ON EASING ANY LINGERING/ROGUE FIRE
CONCERNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD CAME IN REASONABLE FOR THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED...
THOUGH DID MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION LATE
IN THE PERIOD. ALSO FINE TUNED THE LOW TEMP GRIDS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT TO ADD IN MORE RIDGE AND VALLEY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR





000
FXUS63 KJKL 230708
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230708
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230708
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230708
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

A VERY QUIET AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP IN THE SHORT TERM. A
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
TODAY...BUT WE SHOULD EXPERIENCE A NICE WARM UP ANYWAY AS THE COOL
AIR MASS MODIFIED BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. A WEAK WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BRING AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT
LITTLE MORE THAN THAT AS THE BOUNDARY WILL BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS OUR DEEPER VALLEYS
AGAIN DROP IN THE MID 30S. TODAYS HIGHS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT...WITH
READINGS TOPPING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. WITH WINDS HAVING NOT DROPPED
OFF QUITE AS MUCH AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
AREA ALSO STAYED A BIT WARMER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY
ON THE RIDGES. THEREFORE...TODAYS FORECAST HIGHS WERE INCREASED BY A
DEGREE ACROSS THE BOARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DIFFERENCE AND PER THE
WARMER MAVMOS GUIDANCE. WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR...A MODEST RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT WILL AGAIN BE ON TAP FOR
TONIGHT...WITH OUR RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S AND THE
SURROUNDING VALLEYS LIKELY BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 230705
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
305 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Chilly high pressure centered over northeast Wisconsin continues to
build south into the Ohio Valley, but there remains just enough
gradient to maintain a light north breeze. Temps that overachieved
on Tuesday had a long way to drop, and even the coldest of the
mesonet stations in Kentucky are still around 40F. While it is still
possible for a brief sunrise dip to produce some patchy light frost
in the coldest spots, will not continue to play it up as anyone that
would likely take action has already done so.

Main challenge today is the max temp forecast and potential dry air
mix-down. Given what happened on Tuesday and the continued lack of
rainfall, expect temps to once again overachieve and dewpoints to
crash. Went just above the warmest temp guidance and just below the
lowest dewpoint guidance, which yields highs in the mid/upper 60s
and RH values down to 25-30%. However, fire danger issues will be
mitigated by light winds, as we will be hard pressed to see even 10
mph during peak afternoon heating.

Surface ridge slips to our east this evening, and clouds will start
to increase in the return flow. Cloud cover will be most extensive
north of I-64 as an elevated warm front tries to develop over
Indiana, but that feature will remain far enough north (not to
mention sufficiently moisture starved) that precip will not be a
concern. Will then cloud up from the west on Thursday as an upper
trof and associated cold front move into the Mississippi Valley, but
precip chances will hold off until Thursday night. Warm advection
pattern will push temps well above normal, and will again lean on
the warmest guidance.

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

A PV anomaly and associated surface cold front will sweep across the
forecast area Thursday night, with all signs pointing to it being
east of the area by daybreak Friday. Showers with scattered rumbles
of thunder will accompany the frontal passage. Total QPF looks to be
a couple tenths of an inch.

Friday through Saturday night still appears to remain dry. Models
differ on the approach of a weakening front from the north early
Saturday. It may make it into our forecast area, but moisture
convergence and forcing remain north of our area and move east with
the upper-level dynamics before the weakening front reaches our
northern counties. So, will continue with a dry forecast. The front
will hang across our area Saturday and Saturday night, but with no
disturbances traversing the region, we should stay dry. It will
begin to retreat northward Sunday as winds become more southerly
ahead of our next system. High temperatures should top out generally
in the middle 70s Friday and Saturday with overnight lows in the 50s.

A large upper low will gradually migrate eastward from the central
CONUS to the Ohio Valley late Sunday through Tuesday. Clouds will be
on the increase Sunday. We may see some showers and a few storms
late in the day Sunday, particularly across our west if we
destabilize enough in the afternoon. The best precip chances appear
to be from Monday into Tuesday as a front, associated with this
large stacked low, moves through the area. However, with the low
projected to spin across the Ohio Valley for a few days, believe
on-and-off showers with a few rumbles of thunder could linger
through much of the work week.

Temperatures will also begin a cooling trend next week, given the
colder air aloft combined with clouds and precip. High temperatures
will decrease a few degrees each day Sunday through Tuesday, with
middle 60s to low 70s expected by Tuesday. That cooling trend will
continue into the latter half of the work week if the upper low
moves directly over the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 230550
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1250 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014


UPDATE...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

Updated Aviation section for 06Z TAF Issuance.

&&

SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cool dry advection is ongoing across the area today, and the last
of the cu have just about pushed to the southeast. North winds
have been gusting up to 20 mph at times today.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into the area tonight,
and the gradient will relax. However, am not sure whether the
winds will become calm for any prolonged period overnight. With
dewpoints forecast to be well into the 30s and clear skies,
the potential exists for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s
if winds are calm. This brings up the possibility of frost.
Guidance generally keeps temperatures at 40 degrees or in the
lower 40s, so confidence is not great enough to mention even
patchy frost at this time.

Raw model guidance is much more agressive than statistical
guidance in returning low-level moisture across the area on
Wednesday. With easterly low-level winds forecast, decided to lean
heavily toward the statistical guidance, which takes RH`s in the
east down to near 30%. With relatively light winds, this should
not be a major concern for fire weather.

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night, which should result
in a rather mild night. Generally went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night.

Our next storm system is still on track to move through the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The guidance has been rock solid
on this timing for a few days now, so the main question now is
coverage. We will be on the southern edge of the mid and upper
level storm system and it will be approaching rather quickly. This
will not allow much time for southerly return flow of moisture
into the area. A look at 12Z NAM and GFS soundings across the area
indicate that moisture and instability will be lacking, and may
struggle to get together along or ahead of the front. However, figure
that the forcing will be strong enough to overcome the lack of
moisture and instability to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

The wind field will be impressive from the surface to 3km, with
enough SRH to support rotating updrafts. The problem is the mid
and upper level flow is relatively weak, resulting in weak storm-
relative flow. This could lead to outflow dominated storms, and a
tug of war between the tendency for rotating updrafts and outflow
dominated storms. A few storms may briefly approach severe limits
with damaging downburst winds the main threat. However, would not
expect a persistent severe threat with any individual storms.
Figure the main convective zone will run north to south right
through the middle of the area at 00Z Friday.

Will leave a small PoP in the far east after 06Z, but it may be
out of the area by then. Certainly should have nothing left by 12Z
Friday.

LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

At the beginning of the period weak high pressure at the surface and
rising heights aloft should be enough to keep things dry Friday and
Friday night. According to the Canadian model, precipitation
chances make their way back into the CWA on Saturday as a frontal
boundary sags southward into the lower Ohio valley. During the same
time period the GFS and ECMWF show no discernible surface boundary
and an intensification of the upper ridge to our west thus keeping
the precipitation at bay a little longer. Decided to go with the
majority and not bring precipitation into our area on Saturday.

Saturday night a storm system begins to take shape over the central
plains. Depending on which model solution you buy into, this will
either keep the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area or lift
a warm front northeast toward our CWA along with a slight weakening
of the upper ridging.  Either way it should provide better
precipitation chances for our area, it`s just that the orientation
of the precipitation will vary per model solution.

Precipitation chances increase even more Sunday, Sunday night, and
into Monday as the aforementioned system begins to move out of the
plains and keeps an E-W quasi-stationary frontal trough/boundary
across our CWA. Model solutions still a bit different on track and
placement of the upper level and surface features with the
approaching system, but precipitation chances should be elevated
regardless.

As the surface low and associated front with this system slowly push
across our area Monday night, precipitation chances may diminish
from west to east. Hard to say how things are going to pan out on
Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a huge dry slot and higher pressure being
pulled into our area keeping it dry while the GFS shows a pinwheel
effect and drags precipitation along and north of the low southward
back across the CWA. Either scenario looks feasible so decided to go
with chc POPS area wide. No doubt these later periods will need to
be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday but should be
below normal on Tuesday.

AVIATION...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with only scattered
high clouds expected during the planning period portion of the
forecast. Winds will remain nearly calm at night and be 5 to 10
knots during the day.

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RS
LONG TERM....CN
AVIATION...RS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS STILL BLOWING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE RIDGES SHOULD STAY QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF OUR DEEPER VALLEYS COULD STILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FROST IN PLAY. AT THIS TIME...THE FORMATION OF FROST DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE AS PROMISING AS IT DID EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF OUR VALLEYS...THE POSSIBILITY IS
STILL THERE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

FORECAST STILL PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. LATEST OBS SHOW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS STILL BLOWING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
OVERHEAD...THE RIDGES SHOULD STAY QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE
ADJACENT VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF OUR DEEPER VALLEYS COULD STILL
DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY EARLY THIS MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY
OF PATCHY FROST IN PLAY. AT THIS TIME...THE FORMATION OF FROST DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE AS PROMISING AS IT DID EARLIER TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 30S IN SOME OF OUR VALLEYS...THE POSSIBILITY IS
STILL THERE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE ON TAP THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ASIDE FROM THAT...IT SHOULD BE SMOOTH
SAILING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR







000
FXUS63 KLMK 230453
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1253 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

Still a decent northerly gradient across central Kentucky as of 04Z,
keeping winds up around 10 kt. Expect the winds to diminish to 6 kt
or less within the next 2-3 hrs, with light N-NE winds and clear
skies continuing through at least late afternoon as high pressure
ridges into the area from the Great Lakes. Warm advection ahead of
the next system could bring in a mid-level ceiling late Wednesday
evening, but believe it will be late enough that it was only worthy
of inclusion at SDF.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........RAS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 230320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1020 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cool dry advection is ongoing across the area today, and the last
of the cu have just about pushed to the southeast. North winds
have been gusting up to 20 mph at times today.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into the area tonight,
and the gradient will relax. However, am not sure whether the
winds will become calm for any prolonged period overnight. With
dewpoints forecast to be well into the 30s and clear skies,
the potential exists for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s
if winds are calm. This brings up the possibility of frost.
Guidance generally keeps temperatures at 40 degrees or in the
lower 40s, so confidence is not great enough to mention even
patchy frost at this time.

Raw model guidance is much more agressive than statistical
guidance in returning low-level moisture across the area on
Wednesday. With easterly low-level winds forecast, decided to lean
heavily toward the statistical guidance, which takes RH`s in the
east down to near 30%. With relatively light winds, this should
not be a major concern for fire weather.

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night, which should result
in a rather mild night. Generally went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night.

Our next storm system is still on track to move through the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The guidance has been rock solid
on this timing for a few days now, so the main question now is
coverage. We will be on the southern edge of the mid and upper
level storm system and it will be approaching rather quickly. This
will not allow much time for southerly return flow of moisture
into the area. A look at 12Z NAM and GFS soundings across the area
indicate that moisture and instability will be lacking, and may
struggle to get together along or ahead of the front. However, figure
that the forcing will be strong enough to overcome the lack of
moisture and instability to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

The wind field will be impressive from the surface to 3km, with
enough SRH to support rotating updrafts. The problem is the mid
and upper level flow is relatively weak, resulting in weak storm-
relative flow. This could lead to outflow dominated storms, and a
tug of war between the tendency for rotating updrafts and outflow
dominated storms. A few storms may briefly approach severe limits
with damaging downburst winds the main threat. However, would not
expect a persistent severe threat with any individual storms.
Figure the main convective zone will run north to south right
through the middle of the area at 00Z Friday.

Will leave a small PoP in the far east after 06Z, but it may be
out of the area by then. Certainly should have nothing left by 12Z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

At the beginning of the period weak high pressure at the surface and
rising heights aloft should be enough to keep things dry Friday and
Friday night. According to the Canadian model, precipitation
chances make their way back into the CWA on Saturday as a frontal
boundary sags southward into the lower Ohio valley. During the same
time period the GFS and ECMWF show no discernible surface boundary
and an intensification of the upper ridge to our west thus keeping
the precipitation at bay a little longer. Decided to go with the
majority and not bring precipitation into our area on Saturday.

Saturday night a storm system begins to take shape over the central
plains. Depending on which model solution you buy into, this will
either keep the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area or lift
a warm front northeast toward our CWA along with a slight weakening
of the upper ridging.  Either way it should provide better
precipitation chances for our area, it`s just that the orientation
of the precipitation will vary per model solution.

Precipitation chances increase even more Sunday, Sunday night, and
into Monday as the aforementioned system begins to move out of the
plains and keeps an E-W quasi-stationary frontal trough/boundary
across our CWA. Model solutions still a bit different on track and
placement of the upper level and surface features with the
approaching system, but precipitation chances should be elevated
regardless.

As the surface low and associated front with this system slowly push
across our area Monday night, precipitation chances may diminish
from west to east. Hard to say how things are going to pan out on
Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a huge dry slot and higher pressure being
pulled into our area keeping it dry while the GFS shows a pinwheel
effect and drags precipitation along and north of the low southward
back across the CWA. Either scenario looks feasible so decided to go
with chc POPS area wide. No doubt these later periods will need to
be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday but should be
below normal on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1019 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

High pressure will keep VFR conditions prevalant, with only some
scattered high clouds expected during the planning period portion
of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KJKL 230314
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230314
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230314
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230314
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1113 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1114 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ADJUSTED THE TEMPERATURES AGAIN DUE TO THE HIGHER WIND SPEEDS. STILL
EXPECTING THEM TO EVENTUALLY DROP OFF AND DECOUPLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KJKL 230020
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. THE SHOWERS HAVE ALL MOVED OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE
EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. THE WINDS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DIE
DOWN TONIGHT AND SO THE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOW TO DROP
BECAUSE OF THE MIXING. EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIE DOWN AND THE TEMPS
TO START DROPPING FASTER OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 820 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SKIES HAVE CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. EXPECT VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JJ







000
FXUS63 KLMK 222305
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Clear skies are anticipated tonight with north northwest winds
initially at around 11kt lessening to northerly at around 5kt by
dawn. VFR flying conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening
with only a few stray cirrus. Winds will shift to the northeast and
remain at or below 7kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 222305
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Clear skies are anticipated tonight with north northwest winds
initially at around 11kt lessening to northerly at around 5kt by
dawn. VFR flying conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening
with only a few stray cirrus. Winds will shift to the northeast and
remain at or below 7kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 222305
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Clear skies are anticipated tonight with north northwest winds
initially at around 11kt lessening to northerly at around 5kt by
dawn. VFR flying conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening
with only a few stray cirrus. Winds will shift to the northeast and
remain at or below 7kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 222305
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Clear skies are anticipated tonight with north northwest winds
initially at around 11kt lessening to northerly at around 5kt by
dawn. VFR flying conditions expected Wednesday and Wednesday evening
with only a few stray cirrus. Winds will shift to the northeast and
remain at or below 7kt Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 222037
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW
40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER MOSTLY
CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ENSUE AS A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE JUST TO OUR EAST AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PASSING OVER AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING FAIR WEATHER
ON THURSDAY. A LARGE BUT FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS WILL BE MOVING EAST ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT...WITH THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING SOME
DISCREPANCY AT THIS POINT...AND A BLEND WAS USED...WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY.

DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. ONE THING AT ODDS IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR WHICH MAKES IT IN DURING THE
WEEKEND...AND THE SUBSEQUENT POSITION OF THE FRONT WHEN IT STALLS.
THIS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES...AND TO SOME EXTENT
FOR THE POP AS WELL...SINCE THE GREATEST POP SHOULD BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

A POTENT SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST ON FRIDAY WILL ROLL
EAST...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO FORM A CLOSED
UPPER LOW OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONUS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
ALSO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THIS. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM THEN SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. MODELS DO AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...BUT SHOW SO MUCH RANGE
IN THE DETAILS THAT ONLY A GENERALIZED FORECAST CAN BE GIVEN AT THIS
POINT. HAVE USED AN INCREASE IN POPS AS TIME GOES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KPAH 221958
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
258 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Cool dry advection is ongoing across the area today, and the last
of the cu have just about pushed to the southeast. North winds
have been gusting up to 20 mph at times today.

Surface high pressure will nose southward into the area tonight,
and the gradient will relax. However, am not sure whether the
winds will become calm for any prolonged period overnight. With
dewpoints forecast to be well into the 30s and clear skies,
the potential exists for temperatures to drop into the upper 30s
if winds are calm. This brings up the possibility of frost.
Guidance generally keeps temperatures at 40 degrees or in the
lower 40s, so confidence is not great enough to mention even
patchy frost at this time.

Raw model guidance is much more agressive than statistical
guidance in returning low-level moisture across the area on
Wednesday. With easterly low-level winds forecast, decided to lean
heavily toward the statistical guidance, which takes RH`s in the
east down to near 30%. With relatively light winds, this should
not be a major concern for fire weather.

Southeast winds will increase Wednesday night, which should result
in a rather mild night. Generally went above guidance for lows
Wednesday night.

Our next storm system is still on track to move through the area
Thursday afternoon and evening. The guidance has been rock solid
on this timing for a few days now, so the main question now is
coverage. We will be on the southern edge of the mid and upper
level storm system and it will be approaching rather quickly. This
will not allow much time for southerly return flow of moisture
into the area. A look at 12Z NAM and GFS soundings across the area
indicate that moisture and instability will be lacking, and may
struggle to get together along or ahead of the front. However, figure
that the forcing will be strong enough to overcome the lack of
moisture and instability to generate scattered to numerous
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front.

The wind field will be impressive from the surface to 3km, with
enough SRH to support rotating updrafts. The problem is the mid
and upper level flow is relatively weak, resulting in weak storm-
relative flow. This could lead to outflow dominated storms, and a
tug of war between the tendency for rotating updrafts and outflow
dominated storms. A few storms may briefly approach severe limits
with damaging downburst winds the main threat. However, would not
expect a persistent severe threat with any individual storms.
Figure the main convective zone will run north to south right
through the middle of the area at 00Z Friday.

Will leave a small PoP in the far east after 06Z, but it may be
out of the area by then. Certainly should have nothing left by 12Z
Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

At the beginning of the period weak high pressure at the surface and
rising heights aloft should be enough to keep things dry Friday and
Friday night. According to the Canadian model, precipitation
chances make their way back into the CWA on Saturday as a frontal
boundary sags southward into the lower Ohio valley. During the same
time period the GFS and ECMWF show no discernible surface boundary
and an intensification of the upper ridge to our west thus keeping
the precipitation at bay a little longer. Decided to go with the
majority and not bring precipitation into our area on Saturday.

Saturday night a storm system begins to take shape over the central
plains. Depending on which model solution you buy into, this will
either keep the aforementioned frontal boundary in the area or lift
a warm front northeast toward our CWA along with a slight weakening
of the upper ridging.  Either way it should provide better
precipitation chances for our area, it`s just that the orientation
of the precipitation will vary per model solution.

Precipitation chances increase even more Sunday, Sunday night, and
into Monday as the aforementioned system begins to move out of the
plains and keeps an E-W quasi-stationary frontal trough/boundary
across our CWA. Model solutions still a bit different on track and
placement of the upper level and surface features with the
approaching system, but precipitation chances should be elevated
regardless.

As the surface low and associated front with this system slowly push
across our area Monday night, precipitation chances may diminish
from west to east. Hard to say how things are going to pan out on
Tuesday. The ECMWF shows a huge dry slot and higher pressure being
pulled into our area keeping it dry while the GFS shows a pinwheel
effect and drags precipitation along and north of the low southward
back across the CWA. Either scenario looks feasible so decided to go
with chc POPS area wide. No doubt these later periods will need to
be adjusted as we draw closer to the event.

Temperatures will remain above normal through Monday but should be
below normal on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly
winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 20-22 knots will become light
and variable after 01Z, then pick back up out of the northeast aob
10 knots after 15Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KJKL 221933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLER WILL ENSUE AS
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLER WILL ENSUE AS
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLER WILL ENSUE AS
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221933
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

CURRENT CONDITIONS AS OF 19Z FEATURE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HANGING
AROUND THE AREA AS THE FRONT STILL LIES JUST TO THE WEST AS IT BEGINS
TO CROSS THE I-75 CORRIDOR. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY BRING AN END TO
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. OBS UPSTREAM HAVE DEWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S MOVING INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. THIS
AIRMASS WILL BE MOVING IN OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TONIGHT AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLUEGRASS AND IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS.
THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH AN SPS MENTIONING THE FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT. THIS WILL MOSTLY BE THE VALLEYS AS SOME OF THE RIDGE TONIGHT
WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER WINDS...AND WILL SHOW A BIT OF A RIDGE
VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT BUT ONLY AROUND A 5 DEGREE DIFFERENCE.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY DID NOT PROVIDE
MUCH OF A SOAKING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE TODAY AND
SO THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TONIGHT WILL NOT RECOVER MUCH ABOVE
70 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES. AS WELL...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW QUITE A DRY
POCKET OF AIR ALOFT TOMORROW TO MIX DOWN AND WHILE WE WILL LIKELY NOT
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ABOVE...RH WILL STILL BE DOWN INTO THE
CRITICAL VALUES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND SO WILL MENTION FIRE WEATHER
IN THE SPS AS WELL. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT...WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
KEEP SKY COVER MOSTLY CLEAR. THE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AS LOW TEMPS WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW 40S ON THE RIDGES AND INTO THE LOW 30S IN SOME OF THE DEEPER
VALLEYS. THE RIDGE SHIFTING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER
MOSTLY CLEAR AND ANOTHER NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLER WILL ENSUE AS
A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT OF 10 DEGREES WILL BE IN PLACE. FROST ALSO LOOKS
TO BE ANOTHER THREAT THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221925
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221925
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

A cold front has passed through the region today.  Behind it, we can
expect gusty northerly winds (up to 25 mph) late this afternoon and
early evening with winds declining after sunset.

Skies should clear this evening as a drier, colder airmass works
into the region under sfc high pressure.  A decent rad cooling night
looks to be in store although winds will stay slightly elevated
aloft with 3-8 mph northerly sfc winds which will limit the cooling
somewhat.  Still overnight temps look to be quite chilly for this
time of year dipping into the upper 30s and lower 40s.  Sheltered
locations and typical cool spots in the Bluegrass region may reach
the mid 30s with patchy frost formation possible.  Thus, will
mention in an SPS the patchy frost potential.

Perhaps of greater concern will be an enhanced wildfire danger for
Wednesday afternoon.  Dry air aloft looks to mix down to the sfc
resulting in relative humidity values dropping into the mid 20
percent range.  Already dry ground fuels (5-8%) combined with low
humidity values will pose a risk for any fires to rapidly spread out
of control.  NNE winds will remain fairly tame in the 5-10 mph.
Still, think that an SPS mention for enhanced wildfire danger is in
order for tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

Other than that, tomorrow looks to be mostly sunny with high
temperatures ranging throughout the 60s.

Wed night dry conditions will continue with upper level clouds
increasing.  Low temperatures will rebound into the 40s as ridging
and warmer air arrives.

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This period begins dry as the aforementioned surface high moves off
toward the eastern seaboard and upper-level ridging across the south
moves along with it. By late Thursday night into early Friday, a
trough scooting across the Midwest and its associated surface
boundary quickly traverses through with models generally agreeing
that the precip will have exited by midday Friday. The ECMWF is the
outlier for PoPs Friday as it`s a bit slower clearing central
Kentucky and southern Indiana out. However the timing ends up
playing out, once the precip exits off to the east on Friday, expect
one more round of dry conditions through the middle of the
weekend.

As mentioned in the previous forecast, Sunday onward looks
to be rather unsettled as an upper low spins across the center of
the country. At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is depicted
on the 12z GFS and ECMWF to drape just north of the forecast area,
oriented east-west across the center of Indiana. Meanwhile, a
surface low associated with the upper low deepens and seemingly
wants to ride the track of where the boundary lays out late Monday
night through Tuesday. While the 12Z ECMWF has come into better
agreement with the 12Z GFS, there are still noticeable differences
temporally and spatially when considering how this system will
evolve. Therefore, have kept just chance PoPs from Sunday through
Tuesday until we get closer to that time frame and can grab a better
handle. It likely won`t rain during the entire time frame but since
we are approaching an unsettled weather pattern that won`t be
arriving until at least 5 days from today, the uncertainties force
PoP wording during the 12-hour time periods for early next week.
Given face value of the 12z model runs, late Monday through Tuesday
look to have the highest chances at this time. With respect to
thunder possibilities, model soundings point toward the same time
frame of late Monday through Tuesday and have indicated as such in
this forecast update.

Temperatures to start the long-term will be near to slightly above
normal with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s on
Thursday through Saturday. The corresponding low temps will respond
similarly with mid to upper 50s Thursday night, lower 50s Friday
night, and then upper 40s across the north and lower 50s across the
south Saturday night. The temperature forecast then gets a bit more
tricky as cloud cover and precip could certainly play havoc until
the real airmass change comes through in the middle of next week.
Generally speaking though, cooler temps can be anticipated from
Sunday onward, especially as that upper low approaches the region.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........lg
Aviation..........AMS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AS WELL DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
AS WELL. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST ABOUT DONE AS THE FRONT IS JUST
OFF TO THE WEST AND IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. TEMPS HAVE WARMED
NICELY INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST AREAS AND ADJUSTED THE HOURLY
TEMPS SLIGHTLY. AS WELL DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED
AS WELL. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS JUST ABOUT DONE AS THE FRONT IS JUST
OFF TO THE WEST AND IS ABOUT TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THE GRIDS HAVE
BEEN SENT TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

SHOWERS AND IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER







000
FXUS63 KPAH 221718 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the
PAH forecast area. Based on timing and model guidance, the cold
front and any associated isolated showers should exit southeast
portions of the fa by 16z. Clearing skies are expected through the
morning, though the cu rule implies we could see some fair weather
cu across our eastern counties this afternoon. North winds will
help bring in some cooler air, and temperatures will reach near
seasonal readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and an upper level
ridge over the region will keep conditions dry and seasonal into
Wednesday. Very dry air in place over the area will lead to mostly
clear skies through Wednesday. Winds will gradually shift back to
the south late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will
aid in increasing moisture across the area ahead of our next
weather system.

Models show a low pressure system over western Iowa by 12z Thursday.
The associated cold front will move across the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Thursday into Thursday evening.  NAM is
drier and a little faster than GFS and ECMWF, and only produces
around a tenth or less of QPF. GFS and ECMWF produce more in the
quarter to half inch range. With fairly limited moisture return
ahead of the front, will stay on the lower end with QPF amounts.
As for precip chances, models bring precip into far west portions
of the PAH fa between 12z and 18z Thursday, and included slight to
to chance pops for portions of mainly southeast Missouri Thursday
morning. By Thursday afternoon, models show precip becoming fairly
widespread across the western two thirds of the PAH fa, and went
with slight chance pops east to likely pops west. Thursday
evening, the front should be moving across eastern portions of the
fa, and went with likely pops east to slight chance west. After
00z, kept just some slight chance pops in our far east counties.

Models are showing LIs anywhere from 0 to -5 and CAPE values of
800 to 1400 J/kg, mainly Thursday afternoon. SPC has our entire region
in a Day 3 see text. Combined with the potential for quite a bit of
sunshine/heating before clouds/precip spread across the area,
there will be some potential for a few strong to severe storms
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Low confidence continues with respect to the evolution of an
increasingly active and somewhat amplified mid tropospheric flow
pattern in the long term. How this pattern unfolds will also
determine how far south a frontal boundary will make it before
stalling and/or wavering somewhere across the region Saturday
through Monday. The models are showing extreme run to run
inconsistencies. Yesterday, the ECMWF was farther north with the
front, more warm sector for us, while a consensus of the
GFS/GEM/UKMET were much farther south with the front. The 00z GFS
(with the trend seen in the last 4 runs) is now much farther north
with the front, and warm sector for us, a complete flip flop, while
the ECMWF shows a farther southward progression of the front,
stalling it somewhere across our region. Needless to say, this could
spell out into elevated statistical MAE`s with temps and dew points.
We used a blend of previous numbers, and the latest ECMWF values, as
it seems a compromise of solutions, would be to fall somewhere in
between the wide array of possibilities, for now.

Meanwhile, with the increasingly active mid level flow pattern and
presence of the frontal boundary, chances of convection will be in
the forecast Saturday through Monday, after a dry Friday. Pattern
recognition suggests convection is highly likely. However, to
minimize timing errors and factor in coverage uncertainty, will
continue with mid chance PoPs (40-50 percent or so max) in the
Sunday through Monday time frame, as an upper low over the central
CONUS is forecast to move toward the area. Just slight chance PoPs
for now Saturday through Saturday night, warranted by the presence
of the front, and modest moisture and instability seen in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period. Northerly
winds at 10-12 knots gusting up to 20-22 knots will become light
and variable after 01Z, then pick back up out of the northeast aob
10 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...JP







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221707 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221707 AAA
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
107 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue for a short
time before rising and scattering out.  VFR conditions will then be
the rule for the rest of the TAF period as sfc high pressure settles
into the area for tonight and tomorrow.  Expect clear skies
overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For tomorrow some upper
level clouds will begin to work into the region with winds shifting
to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue until 19-21Z
before moving southeast of the area and scattering out.  VFR
conditions will then be the rule for the rest of the TAF period as
sfc high pressure settles into the area for tonight and tomorrow.
Expect clear skies overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For
tomorrow some upper level clouds will begin to work into the region
with winds shifting to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221657
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1257 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1250 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

The cold front was through BWG/SDF as of 1630Z and passing through
LEX.  Expect winds to veer to the NW at LEX within the next hour.
Just behind this front, expect MVFR cigs to continue until 19-21Z
before moving southeast of the area and scattering out.  VFR
conditions will then be the rule for the rest of the TAF period as
sfc high pressure settles into the area for tonight and tomorrow.
Expect clear skies overnight with north winds under 7 kts.  For
tomorrow some upper level clouds will begin to work into the region
with winds shifting to the NE and remaining under 7kts.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......AMS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 221455
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221455
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE FIRST BOUT OF SHOWERS HAVE PASSED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AT THIS
TIME THE COLD FRONT STILL LIES TO THE WEST AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING...WHAT LITTLE TAKES PLACE DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME INSTABILITY AND HAVE KEPT SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
ZONES FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THUNDER IS STILL A QUESTIONABLE
POSSIBILITY DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE
TAKEN PRECIP OUT OF THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE BLUEGRASS AND
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST. HAVE ISSUED
A NEW ZFP AND SENT THE GRIDS TO NDFD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KLMK 221326
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221326
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
926 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Updated the forecast to move rain showers out of the Lake Cumberland
region faster this morning.  This is the end of the rain shower
activity for the day.  The cold front was just south of the Ohio
River as of 13Z.  The front will continue to move SE through the
region this morning shifting winds to the NW.  Winds will pick up to
10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph this afternoon.  Cooler air
filtering in behind the front should limit high temps to the upper
60s and lower 70s despite mostly sunny skies expected this afternoon.

Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........AMS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 221145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 221145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

STILL WAITING ON THE THUNDER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MAIN LINE OF
RAIN IS CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY CURRENTLY...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
HRRR. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDER FOLLOWED BY LOWER POPS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO FINE
TUNED THE T AND TD GRIDS THROUGH MID MORNING BASED ON THE CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL SPLIT TIME WITH SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH. HAVE YANKED
THE THUNDER CHANCES AS THE SHOWERS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH SIGNS OF
BEING TOO ROBUST...SO FAR. TO COVER LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND WHEN THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT GOES
THROUGH HAVE INCLUDED A VCSH MENTION IN THE TAFS. DRY AIR WILL THEN
FILTER IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING TO AN
END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AT 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST THIS
MORNING...BECOMING MORE NORTH WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF





000
FXUS63 KLMK 221052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 221052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Forecast has been updated to clean up the pre-1st period wording, as
showers along and ahead of the cold front continue to have a tough
time holding together. Scattered showers look like a good call
across south-central Kentucky until the mid-morning fropa, while
isolated may be generous for areas north of the Parkways.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 650 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

This morning`s fropa will take place in two parts, with the main
forecast question being ceilings in between the two phases. Initial
wind shift and end of precip chances will happen within the next
couple hours, while the dewpoint discontinuity and leading edge of
some gusty NNW winds lags back north of I-70.

Isolated to scattered showers ahead of the initial wind shift will
be of minimal concern. Best chance at precip the next couple hrs
will be near BWG, and that only warrants VCSH at best. Ceiling and
vis in the showers will remain VFR.

The rest of the morning will be characterized by light W-NW winds
and trapped low-level moisture. High confidence in MVFR ceilings,
now that we are starting to see a lot more strato-cu over central
Indiana, and another pocket over western Kentucky. However,
confidence is much lower regarding whether ceilings will drop below
fuel-alternate thresholds. It will be a last-minute call on how low
we go, with the prime time for MVFR conditions occurring between
roughly 13-18Z, which does catch quite a bit of inbound traffic at
SDF.

By early afternoon, the drier air will spill in, with conditions
improving to VFR but NW wind gusts kicking up to around 20 kt.
Gustiness should subside around sunset.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....RAS
Long Term......MJP
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 220816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
316 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Latest surface analysis shows the cold front just northwest of the
PAH forecast area. Based on timing and model guidance, the cold
front and any associated isolated showers should exit southeast
portions of the fa by 16z. Clearing skies are expected through the
morning, though the cu rule implies we could see some fair weather
cu across our eastern counties this afternoon. North winds will
help bring in some cooler air, and temperatures will reach near
seasonal readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and an upper level
ridge over the region will keep conditions dry and seasonal into
Wednesday. Very dry air in place over the area will lead to mostly
clear skies through Wednesday. Winds will gradually shift back to
the south late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will
aid in increasing moisture across the area ahead of our next
weather system.

Models show a low pressure system over western Iowa by 12z Thursday.
The associated cold front will move across the middle Mississippi
and lower Ohio valleys Thursday into Thursday evening.  NAM is
drier and a little faster than GFS and ECMWF, and only produces
around a tenth or less of QPF. GFS and ECMWF produce more in the
quarter to half inch range. With fairly limited moisture return
ahead of the front, will stay on the lower end with QPF amounts.
As for precip chances, models bring precip into far west portions
of the PAH fa between 12z and 18z Thursday, and included slight to
to chance pops for portions of mainly southeast Missouri Thursday
morning. By Thursday afternoon, models show precip becoming fairly
widespread across the western two thirds of the PAH fa, and went
with slight chance pops east to likely pops west. Thursday
evening, the front should be moving across eastern portions of the
fa, and went with likely pops east to slight chance west. After
00z, kept just some slight chance pops in our far east counties.

Models are showing LIs anywhere from 0 to -5 and CAPE values of
800 to 1400 J/kg, mainly Thursday afternoon. SPC has our entire region
in a Day 3 see text. Combined with the potential for quite a bit of
sunshine/heating before clouds/precip spread across the area,
there will be some potential for a few strong to severe storms
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

Low confidence continues with respect to the evolution of an
increasingly active and somewhat amplified mid tropospheric flow
pattern in the long term. How this pattern unfolds will also
determine how far south a frontal boundary will make it before
stalling and/or wavering somewhere across the region Saturday
through Monday. The models are showing extreme run to run
inconsistencies. Yesterday, the ECMWF was farther north with the
front, more warm sector for us, while a consensus of the
GFS/GEM/UKMET were much farther south with the front. The 00z GFS
(with the trend seen in the last 4 runs) is now much farther north
with the front, and warm sector for us, a complete flip flop, while
the ECMWF shows a farther southward progression of the front,
stalling it somewhere across our region. Needless to say, this could
spell out into elevated statistical MAE`s with temps and dew points.
We used a blend of previous numbers, and the latest ECMWF values, as
it seems a compromise of solutions, would be to fall somewhere in
between the wide array of possibilities, for now.

Meanwhile, with the increasingly active mid level flow pattern and
presence of the frontal boundary, chances of convection will be in
the forecast Saturday through Monday, after a dry Friday. Pattern
recognition suggests convection is highly likely. However, to
minimize timing errors and factor in coverage uncertainty, will
continue with mid chance PoPs (40-50 percent or so max) in the
Sunday through Monday time frame, as an upper low over the central
CONUS is forecast to move toward the area. Just slight chance PoPs
for now Saturday through Saturday night, warranted by the presence
of the front, and modest moisture and instability seen in the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 316 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR clouds should move southeast with clearing skies across the TAF
sites between 12z and 16z. A few fair weather cumulus may develop
mainly at KEVV and KOWB.  Winds will be out of the northwest at 10
to 15 kts with a few higher gusts, becoming light north to
northeast after 00z.  No vsby restrictions expected.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...RST





000
FXUS63 KJKL 220740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 220740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 220740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 220740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING KENTUCKY FROM A
PARENT LOW CROSSING THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FRONT BENEATH HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS. SO FAR...ACTUAL
MEASUREMENT BY THE SHOWERS HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY...BUT A FEW
PROMISING CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF INTERSTATE CORRIDOR ON
RADAR. DESPITE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THE PERSISTENT CLOUD
COVER...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AREA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ESTABLISH A
SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY DIFFERENCE AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS ARE SITTING
IN THE MID 50S WHILE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES. THIS
SHOULD EVEN OUT AS THE AIR SATURATES LATER THIS NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN SHOWER COVERAGE. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO THE LOWER 50S
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH SOME 40S ARE FOUND ON THE RIDGES AND IN
THE FAR EAST. MEANWHILE...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AREA.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A
DEVELOPING TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST OHIO VALLEY LATER
TODAY PROMPTING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST ENERGY
WITH THIS TROUGH STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KENTUCKY...WITH
SOME WEAKER AMOUNTS PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE NORTHEAST
TROUGH DOES EXIT THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO BUILD
BACK OVER KENTUCKY AMIDST RIDGING INBOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
WITH THE AGREEMENT ALOFT...HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FOR WEATHER DETAILS
HAVE LEANED MORE HEAVILY ON THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DAMP AND COOLER DAY AS THE FRONT
GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN OF NOTE WILL BE RIGHT WITH THE BOUNDARY/S PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING. THE THERMAL PROFILE STILL LOOKS UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH NOON ACROSS THE AREA SO WILL KEEP
THAT IN THE FORECAST. EVEN SO...THE LACK OF ANY ORGANIZATION WILL KEEP
ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TO A MORE GARDEN VARIETY LEVEL AND ALSO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOAKING RAINS FOR ALL BUT A FEW SPOTS. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT AND EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE CLOUDS.
THE DECENT CAA BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT WILL COMPOUND RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS TO SEND TEMPERATURES THERE INTO
THE MIDDLE 30S. THIS...COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAVE THEM
VULNERABLE TO PATCHY FROST BY DAWN. HAVE ADDED THIS TO THE WX GRIDS
AND WILL CONTINUE ITS MENTION IN THE HWO. FOR WEDNESDAY...AFTER A
CHILLY START...READINGS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S MOST PLACES...
THOUGH THE ARRIVAL OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY WILL DO LITTLE
TO HELP TEMPS RISE IN THE AFTERNOON.

STARTED OUT WITH THE BC/CONSSHORT GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPS...
DEWPOINTS...AND WIND GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
FOLLOWED BY THE BC/CONSALL THEREAFTER. THE DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
LOWER FOR MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY FOR EXTRA DRY AIR
MIXDOWN. DID MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CONSALL FOR LOWS
TONIGHT AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO THE
MOS GUIDANCE TODAY AND ALSO WITH ITS LOW SINGLE DIGIT VALUES TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND ACROSS THE CONUS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS DISPLAYED SOME SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EXACT
TIMING...BUT OVERALL AGREEMENT WAS SOLID. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FAIRLY INTENSE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...ALONG WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL
DATA...IT APPEARS THAT THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE IN AND OFF ITSELF. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE WELL
DEFINED ENOUGH...AND HAVE ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE TO TAP INTO...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WITH A VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH STEERING IT...THE SURFACE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT BEING SAID...ADJUSTED THE FORECAST GRIDS
TO REFLECT ABOUT A 20 HOUR PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS MODEST INSTABILITY AT BEST DURING FRONTAL
PASSAGE...SO THUNDER SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. TEMPERATURES IN OUR
DEEPEST VALLEYS COULD DROP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME FROST FORMATION
AROUND THE AREA. BASED ON HOW WARM IT HAS BEEN LATELY...AND HOW WARM
IT WILL BE LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF PATCHY VALLEY FROST IN THE GRIDS FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

A SECOND WEATHER IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE ISSUE WITH THIS
SYSTEM LIES IN THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO THE
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. AS IT STANDS...THE GFS
MODEL IS PRODUCING STRONG AND MORE SLOWLY EVOLVING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAN THE ECMWF. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE
ECMWF...EASTERN KENTUCKY COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON MONDAY. THE GFS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HOLDS OFF ON INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOLUTION FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO
GO WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS...GFS AND ECWMF...TO TRY AND
ACCOUNT FOR THE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM. THAT BEING
SAID...THE FORECAST SOLUTION FOR LATE SATURDAY ONWARD IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE...WITH A SLIGHT BIAS TOWARD THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE
ECMWF SOLUTION. THAT BEING SAID...WENT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND
FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE A MEANDERING
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING
ALONG IT FROM TIME TO TIME. WITH INSTABILITY ONCE AGAIN
LIMITED...DECIDED TO GO WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS...SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL LIKELY BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE GULF OPENS UP AS WE BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF A PASSING CYCLONE. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL BE COMMON ON THESE DAYS. ONCE THE SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION AND THE SURFACE FRONTS STALLS OUT
ACROSS THE AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT A COOLER DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. HIGHS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD
WILL AVERAGE MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND SHOULD HOVER AROUND NORMAL VALUES
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 220659
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Cold front continues to make steady progress across Illinois and
Indiana, with scattered showers ahead of it. Expect fropa just
before daybreak in the Hoosier National Forest, a bit after sunrise
near the I-65 corridor, and around mid-morning from the Bluegrass
region to Lake Cumberland. Will carry the dreaded 50 POP, or
certainly no more than 60 ahead of the front, even though coverage
at any given time will be no more than scattered.

Precip chances come to a quick end after fropa, but low strato-cu
will linger behind the front for a few hours as low-level moisture
remains trapped. Cold air advection notwithstanding, temps will
recover to near 70 this afternoon with some clearing, and the
benefit of an unseasonably mild start. NW winds could be a bit on
the gusty side as high pressure builds from the Great Lakes.

Biggest question tonight is how effectively the winds decouple, and
how cold we get as a result. Surface ridge axis makes it roughly to
I-65, but the high center should remain over eastern WI or Lake
Michigan, far enough north to keep our temps from crashing. Coldest
temps will be mid/upper 30s over the Bluegrass, with just enough of
a north breeze to limit frost formation. Will still carry mention of
patchy frost over the Bluegrass, mainly in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday temps will run solidly below normal as the low-level
thermal trof takes its sweet time moving out. Went near or just
above the milder GFS MOS, which is in line with the raw model
consensus.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Surface high pressure will be sliding to our east Wednesday night,
with southerly winds ramping up Thursday. A ridge axis aloft will
move across the area, so expect a dry Wednesday night and Thursday.
Southerly winds and ridging aloft will allow temperatures Thursday
afternoon to reach the upper 70s to low 80s. Clouds will increase
during the day as a PV anomaly and associated surface cold front
approach from the west. Should start to see showers and scattered
thunderstorms enter our western counties Thursday evening and sweep
across the forecast area overnight. The precip should be east of our
area by daybreak Friday.

Friday through Saturday will generally be dry. Cannot rule out an
isolated shower or storm Saturday afternoon with another front
sweeping through the area. However, moisture convergence and forcing
is slated to stay to our north, so will keep things dry for now.
Temperatures will cool down into the middle 70s for Friday and upper
60s to lower 70s for Saturday, as the front sags southward.

The frontal boundary will become quasi-stationary somewhere across
the Ohio or Tennessee Valley Saturday night through Monday, with a
few PV anomalies passing across the area during this time frame. The
exact location of this stalled frontal boundary remains a mystery
given the spread amongst guidance, but some signals indicate it
being oriented west-east across roughly central Kentucky. This will
lead to an unsettled period for the entire forecast area,
particularly Sunday through at least Monday with on-and-off
scattered showers and thunderstorms. With clouds and precip across
the area, temperatures will generally top out in the middle to upper
60s Sunday and Monday. Could be some lower to middle 70s across
southern Kentucky, but that will depend on the location of the front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Approaching cold front currently extends from roughly LAN to LAF to
just south of STL, with scattered showers out ahead of it. Believe
that any precip through the overnight period will be intermittent
enough that VCSH will cover it. The timing of fropa so close to
sunrise is problematic, as that is favorable to trap enough
low-level moisture to bring down ceilings. Took all three central
Kentucky TAF sites down to high-end MVFR after 09-10Z, with fropa
slated for 12-14Z.

Behind the front, NW winds will pick up, with MVFR ceilings lowering
into fuel-alternate. Confidence is limited because these lower
ceilings have yet to develop upstream, but this forecast is fairly
well in line with GFS and not as pessimistic as the IFR ceilings
advertised by the overly bullish NAM.

As mixing deepens in the afternoon, expect ceilings to lift and
scatter out by around 18Z. NW winds will be a bit more frisky, with
gusts near 20 kt through the latter half of the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RAS
Long Term.........MJP
Aviation..........RAS







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BUT NOT
MUCH IS MEASURING. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END OF CHANCE UNTIL
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONT GETS NEAR...AND ALSO WE
WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...FINE TUNED
THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY BUT NOT
MUCH IS MEASURING. HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW END OF CHANCE UNTIL
CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN WHEN THE ACTUAL FRONT GETS NEAR...AND ALSO WE
WILL STILL SEE A CHANCE FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. ALSO...FINE TUNED
THE T AND TD GRIDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON THE
LATEST OBS...TRENDS...AND CONSSHORT GUIDANCE. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO SOME MVFR CIGS AND VIS
TOWARDS DAWN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ON THROUGH THE AREA. REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS...DOWN TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...ALONG WITH A
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM. DRY AIR WILL THEN FILTER IN LATER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS RISING TO VFR
AGAIN BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST
UNTIL RIGHT WITH THE FRONT...AROUND DAWN...WHEN THEY WILL PICK UP AT
10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE WEST...BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF







000
FXUS63 KLMK 220509
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 958 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Did a quick update to adjust PoPs slightly.  Initial band of showers
now pushing into the region...mainly along and west of I-65.  These
will continue to move eastward and into the eastern
sections/Bluegrass region later this evening.  Not overly confident
on thunderstorms overnight...thus have removed the mention in the
forecast.  Though...a rumble or two can not be ruled out in a
stronger shower that moves through.  Surface front still located out
to our west.  Frontal passage still looks on target after sunrise
Tuesday morning. Also adjusted temperatures upward slightly.  Much
of the guidance was a little aggressive on the diurnal fall in
temps.  Adjusted temps close to the short term multi-model consensus
for the overnight period.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

A cold front will approach the area tonight.  Ahead of it, showers
and isolated t-storms will be possible.  We`ve had light radar
returns over the area throughout the afternoon, but most of the
precip has been virga with maybe a lucky sprinkle reaching the
ground under the best radar returns.  Most precip has remained aloft
due to very dry low levels.  However, as we get into the late
afternoon/evening hours, low level moisture will increase allowing
showers to reach the ground.  Rain showers will continue on and off
throughout the night with most places seeing at least a sprinkle or
shower.  Thunderstorm chances are in question as we`re not seeing a
whole lot of lightning activity downstream.  However, most model
soundings do indicate some elevated instability overnight so will
continue an isld t-storm mention.  Due to such a dry airmass in
place already, overnight temps will likely fall into the low-mid 60s
as the atmosphere saturates with overall night time lows bottoming
out in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

For Tuesday, the cold front will pass through the region early in
the morning with showers and isld t-storms gradually pushing east of
the area through the morning hours.  Skies will turn sunny from NW
to SE during the afternoon hours.  Expect cooler afternoon high
temps in the mid 60s to around 70.  Also, NW winds will be a bit
gusty (up to 25 mph gusts) in a tight pressure gradient behind the
frontal passage Tues afternoon.

Tuesday night expect clear skies with high pressure sinking south
into the Ohio Valley.  The cold airmass and decent rad cooling
conditions will likely result in temps dropping into the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the area.  Although low level moisture is in
question, some locations over the Bluegrass that drop into the mid
30s may experience patchy frost.  Sheltered locations would stand
the best chance at any frost formation.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Wednesday - Thursday...

Ridging from a surface high centered over the Great Lakes will be in
place over the Ohio Valley Wednesday, sliding east of the area
through Thursday. Meanwhile, a progressive upper ridge will build
over the area, then slide east by Thursday evening. This pattern
will result in dry conditions, with temperatures making a recovery
from Tuesday`s cold front. Highs on Wednesday look to range from 63
to 68, with the warmer temps being across the west closer to the
building upper ridge/increasing thicknesses. Wednesday night should
be slightly milder than Tuesday night, with lows mostly in the low
and mid 40s. A few of the cooler eastern valleys might drop into the
upper 30s closer to the surface high. A few of the models try and
depict some very light rain associated with isentropic lift over a
warm front across southeastern IN, but will not bite on these very
small chances attm. Thursday will see a nice increase in
temperatures as thicknesses rise and a steady southerly flow takes
hold. Mainly upper 70s above guidance looks like a good call under
this pattern, as has been the case recently.

Thursday Night...

A progressive shortwave and its associated surface low will cut
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes Thursday night.
Meanwhile, the trailing cold front will approach our region. Look
for pretty solid coverage of showers and scattered thunderstorms
Thursday night ahead of this feature. Have continued mention of
likely Pops. Looks like the best dynamics will scoot to our north so
not concerned about severe potential at this time. A few of the
stronger storms may be able to produce some gusty winds, brief heavy
rain, and cloud to ground lightning.

Friday - Saturday...

The cold front passes through quickly and have all of the
precipitation chances east of our area by dawn on Friday morning. We
look to go into a fairly benign zonal flow, gradually transitioning
to shallow northwest flow by Saturday morning. Will go dry through
this period, although very small chances of a shower or storm can`t
be ruled out as a moisture starved front drops south toward the Ohio
Valley. Look for highs in the low and mid 70s on the warm side of
this boundary as we head into the weekend.

Saturday Night - Monday...

Complicated forecast to end the weekend and start the new week as
forecast models diverge in solutions. The problem appears to lie in
how amplified an omega block gets over the central CONUS and its
impact on the resulting downstream flow over our region. The latest
ECMWF seems to have some support from the GFS ensemble mean in less
amplified flow, which would allow the frontal boundary to stall out
near our region as it becomes nearly parrallel to the upper flow.
The GFS is much more amplified with the omega block and the
downstream flow, allowing the front to progress through our area and
well south. The ECMWF solution would be much warmer/wetter, while
the cooler/drier.

Pretty much have to pick a path at this point. Will side with the
warmer/wetter ECMWF and its supporting cast. This will lead to
gradually increasing shower and storm chances late Saturday night
along and north of the Ohio River, with several waves riding along
this boundary through at least Monday. As the front hangs out or
very slowly slides south across our area, expect temperatures to
become slighly cooler each day. Highs Sunday should generally be in
the mid/upper 60s, with Monday in the low to mid 60s.

Please note that if it becomes more clear that the more amplified
solution will work out. Look for big changes to the forecast in the
direction of cooler/drier during this time.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014

Approaching cold front currently extends from roughly LAN to LAF to
just south of STL, with scattered showers out ahead of it. Believe
that any precip through the overnight period will be intermittent
enough that VCSH will cover it. The timing of fropa so close to
sunrise is problematic, as that is favorable to trap enough
low-level moisture to bring down ceilings. Took all three central
Kentucky TAF sites down to high-end MVFR after 09-10Z, with fropa
slated for 12-14Z.

Behind the front, NW winds will pick up, with MVFR ceilings lowering
into fuel-alternate. Confidence is limited because these lower
ceilings have yet to develop upstream, but this forecast is fairly
well in line with GFS and not as pessimistic as the IFR ceilings
advertised by the overly bullish NAM.

As mixing deepens in the afternoon, expect ceilings to lift and
scatter out by around 18Z. NW winds will be a bit more frisky, with
gusts near 20 kt through the latter half of the afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RAS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 220234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES
WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM...AS WELL IS ITS
LOCATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT...WILL DRIVE THE PREVAILING
WIND...VIS...AND CIG CONDITIONS...SO UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH ANY AIRPORTS. DRY AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS
RISING TO VFR AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES
WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM...AS WELL IS ITS
LOCATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT...WILL DRIVE THE PREVAILING
WIND...VIS...AND CIG CONDITIONS...SO UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH ANY AIRPORTS. DRY AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS
RISING TO VFR AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES
WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM...AS WELL IS ITS
LOCATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT...WILL DRIVE THE PREVAILING
WIND...VIS...AND CIG CONDITIONS...SO UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH ANY AIRPORTS. DRY AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS
RISING TO VFR AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







000
FXUS63 KJKL 220234
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPECKLE WEST AND CENTRAL KY AS THEY
SLOWLY MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW...THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION HAS BEEN TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR ANY THUNDER TO DEVELOP.
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FIRST...WITH THE LACK OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS...DECIDED TO
TAKE OUT ANY MENTION OF ISOLATED TSRA UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...ANY ONGOING SHOWERS COULD WORK TO COOL THE LLVLS...AND
ALLEVIATE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION...MAKING IT EASIER FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HELP TO
SPARK ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

ALSO...SINCE PRECIP IS ONGOING...DECIDED TO CHANGE THE WEATHER GRIDS
FROM PROBABILITY TO COVERAGE...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL THE TIMING FOR
THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH TOMORROW STILL SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
THOUGH WILL BE CURIOUS AS TO IF THIS SPOTTY SHOWER PATTERN WILL
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT...OR IF POPS WILL NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED DOWN LATER IN THE NIGHT. HOPEFULLY AS THE BOUNDARY NEARS AND
RH VALUES INCREASE...WE WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN THE PRECIP
ACTIVITY AS WELL. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE BEST MOISTURE MOVING
INTO EASTERN KY BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z. REGARDLESS...BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND FORECASTED QPF...ULTIMATELY DECIDED TO TAKE OUT ANY
MENTION OF MODERATE RAINFALL. THOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW HEAVIER
ISOLATED CELLS...OVERALL EXPECT THIS TO BE A SMALL AMOUNTING EVENT.
THIS MAY NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 736 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK SO FAR. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE INCOMING FRONT AND RESULTING RAIN/TSRA CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION AS IT GETS CLOSER...IN CASE ANY UPDATES NEED TO BE MADE AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR
TEMPS...WINDS...AND DEW POINTS...TO MAKE SURE ONGOING FORECAST LINED
UP WITH ONGOING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST. WARM TEMPS HAVE REALLY
DRIED OUT SOME OF THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST
WITH RH DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. ALSO...WE HAVE
HAD A BIT MORE MIXING AS SOME ISOLATED RIDGE TOPS HAVE REACHED 15
MPH. GIVEN THE FACT THAT WE HAVE HAD OUR DEWS NOT RESPONDING WELL TO
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE MOS SEEMINGLY AGREEING WITH THE LOWER
DEWS...HAVE LOWERED THEM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND EVEN LOWERED THE
QPF EXPECTED FROM THE ONCOMING FRONT TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP WILL ARRIVE BY 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOCATIONS. THOUGH
THE ACTIVITY WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...SOME INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT
FOR SOME THUNDER TONIGHT SO HAVE PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS
MAY GET MORE THAN A COUPLE TENTHS OF RAINFALL BUT THE OVERALL DRY
PATTERN WILL LIMIT THIS.

THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE QUITE COOLER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR WITH THE TEMPS OVER THE BLUEGRASS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL STILL A FACTOR AS WELL WITH THE DEWS DROPPING INTO
THE 30S AS WELL. THE OVERALL FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE BASED UPON
THE IMPACT OF THE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING FRONT AS THE SOAKING PROVIDED WILL FACTOR IN HOW LOW RH WILL
DROP INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. ALSO THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH THE
LOCATIONS WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT BEFORE THE START OF
THE WEEKEND. TRANSIENT RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND MOVE
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE THU INTO THU NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
MAIN TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DAKOTAS AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON THU NIGHT AND THEN INTO
EASTERN CANADA TO START THE WEEKEND. AT THE SFC...A SFC LOW SHOULD
TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM WED
NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. THIS LOW AND THE LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SEND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THU NIGHT INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY.
MODELS THEN HANDLE THIS TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN CANADA INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN US AND THE EVENTUAL PATTERN LATE IN THE PERIOD BOTH
IN TIMING AND AMPLIFICATION. THEREFORE...FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EACH AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON WED. THEN A STRUNG
OUT COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PASS QUICKLY THROUGH OUR AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GENERATED QPF IS LEAN...AS
IS INSTABILITY...AND ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH
60 PERCENT POPS AND ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS THE
FRONT PASSES. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...FORECAST MODELS THEN PAINT
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...THE CR DATA GRID LOAD BLENDING
MODEL DATA AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CONTINUED TO BE REASONABLE
UNTIL THERE IS MORE MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE PATTERN. THIS BLEND
RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
RETURN TO CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT MON APR 21 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO DROP CEILINGS ACROSS THE TAF SITES AROUND 10Z TOMORROW
MORNING. EXPECT REDUCED VISIBILITY AND LOWER CEILINGS INTO IFR RANGES
WITH THE SHOWERS FROM 10Z THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM...AS WELL IS ITS
LOCATION IN PROXIMITY TO THE AIRPORT...WILL DRIVE THE PREVAILING
WIND...VIS...AND CIG CONDITIONS...SO UPDATES MAY NEED TO BE MADE AS
STORMS DEVELOP AND APPROACH ANY AIRPORTS. DRY AIR WILL THEN BEGIN TO
FILTER IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AND CIGS
RISING TO VFR AGAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW







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