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000
FXUS63 KJKL 062040
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

MSAS WOULD SUGGEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE IN
FROM THE TN VALLEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP THE REGION DRY FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THAT SAID
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. NOW SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHTS WOULD
SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOUR. THIS WILL LEAVE THE EASTERN KY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. NOW HAVING SAID THAT...UNDER BROAD SURFACE HIGH MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND THIS WILL LEAD TO DECENT
RIDGE VALLEY SPLITS. OVERALL WE ALREADY HAD THIS THOUGHT SO ONLY
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

FOR SUNDAY WE WILL SEE ANOTHER NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DAY FOR TEMPS
WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 50S. MOST SPOTS WILL SEE A
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH INCREASING CLOUD LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF
IMPENDING DISTURBANCE. RIGHT NOW NOT THINKING THIS WILL KILL
TEMPS MUCH DUE TO THE LATER ONSET AND SW FLOW. THE BIGGEST WEATHER
THREAT IN THE PERIOD WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DIVES SE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OUT OF THE MIDWEST. OVERALL TRIED TO BETTER TIME OUT THIS
SYSTEM AND RIGHT NOW STUCK WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NEAR THE
BOUNDARY. THERE STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE
CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN...MIX IF RAIN/SNOW...AND SNOW. RIGHT NOW
BASED ON SOUNDINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR WET BULBING AT SOME POINT
WILL KEEP THE ONSET OF THIS RAIN BEFORE SEEING A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AROUND DAWN MONDAY. LOOKING AT LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ONSET FOR MOST JUST GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
WARMER GROUND TEMPS AND MIXING POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO 6 KFT
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE
STORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ



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000
FXUS63 KPAH 062022
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence remains high with upcoming system.

A strong cold front will reach the northwestern border of our CWA
at 18Z on Sunday and should be completely through by 04Z on
Monday. An upper level low will move across the Great Lakes with
impressive northerly flow out of Canada on the backside.

Moisture just begins to reach the system late in the afternoon
Sunday and may squeeze out a few sprinkles over the northern
sections.

Better moisture is available over the central and eastern section
Sunday night. After Midnight, colder temperatures really start to
move in and 850 temps/soundings support at least a rain/snow mix.

Wrap around moisture will be in the form of snow showers on
Monday. With wind gusts over 20 mph, may be a few locally intense
snow squalls especially over the north and east sections. It is
too early to attempt to determine better locations at this time.

By Monday Night, models agree that the deeper moisture will be
generally east of the Mississippi.

Snow ratios increase from about 14 to 1 on Monday to over 20 to 1
Tuesday. Total snow amounts range from a tenth or so near the
Mississippi River to between 1 and 2 inches over parts of Pike and
Spencer counties in southwest Indiana. However, the winds will
blow the light fluffy snow around so it may be quite difficult to
measure therefore the impacts look to be minimal at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

The coldest days of the seven day period will be on Tuesday and
Wednesday. The main upper level trough axis will be to our east to
start out the day on Tuesday, but the core of the coldest air will
be partly over our region. 850 mb temperatures drop down to at least
-15 deg C by 12Z Tuesday morning. Looking at CIPS analog data, the
top analogs suggest we will only see highs in the lower 30s and
maybe even upper 20s in some locales. We will be in between sfc
weather systems as well, with a low pressure system to our east and
an incoming high pressure system from the northwest. This will leave
our region in a fairly stout gradient and make for a rather chilly
morning on Tuesday as cold air advection continues.

The deep upper trough responsible for bringing this frigidness and
cloudiness to the area, will continue moving east Tuesday and
Wednesday which allows upper heights to finally start rising. Before
the deeper moisture departs on Tuesday, there could be some leftover
flurries mainly during the morning over eastern parts of the area.

However, it takes a while for the cold air to vacate. In fact,
Wednesday morning will be even colder than Tuesday morning, with a
little less wind, as the aformentioned sfc high will be on our
doorstep, but there will be enough wind to make temperatures in the
teens feel even worse with wind chills bottoming out in the single
digits. We will likely see highs still only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s on Wednesday as well. As this sfc high builds into the
region for Wednesday, we will maintain quiet weather conditions.

The high will shift east Wednesday evening and winds attempt to
shift around briefly to the southeast in some locations, before a
weak low pressure system passes by mainly to our west. In the upper
levels, the flow remains northwesterly and we will be dealing with a
few minor perturbations from time to time, but each signal noted
so far in the models is not consistent in time or space and too
weak to mention in the forecast right now.

Therefore, will maintain dry weather through Saturday. Temperatures
will get into the 40s for highs by Thursday and Friday in most
locations with lower readings again by Saturday when another cold
Canadian high builds over the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly high
clouds. Southwest winds will become light tonight and increase
during the late morning on Sunday. Some gusts of 16-18kt possible
at all sites after 16z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...PS



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000
FXUS63 KLMK 062018
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
318 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Afternoon satellite imagery and surface observations reveal partly
cloudy skies across the region.  Temperatures were generally in the
upper 40s where clouds were located while areas that had more
sunshine were in the lower 50s.  We expect temperatures to hit their
daily maximums in the next 1-2 hours and then see temperatures fall
back into the lower-mid 40s during the evening hours.  High pressure
will drift off to the east overnight, but the area will see mostly
clear skies.  With high pressure to our east and an approaching
system to the west, we`ll see a light southwesterly flow overnight
which will keep temperatures up a bit.  Overnight lows look to cool
into the mid-upper 20s in the east with mainly upper 20s in the
central (I-65 corridor) and western sections.

We`ll see mid-high level cloudiness spread back into the region late
Sunday afternoon. However, Sunday will be a dry day across the
region.  Surface pressure gradient should also increase as well so
conditions will be breezy.  Afternoon high temperatures should warm
into the upper 40s to lower 50s in the east with mainly lower-mid
50s in the central and southwest sections.

A surface cold front will approach the region from the northwest
Sunday night.  Skies will cloud up quickly during the evening and
some light precipitation should start to break out from NW to SE
during the overnight hours.  Lower boundary layer temperature
structure continues to look warm enough for mostly liquid
precipitation to fall, though can not rule out some light snow
mixing in at times across our far northern southern IN counties.
Overnight lows will likely cool into the lower 30s in most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

...Winter Returns To The Ohio Valley Next Week...

Monday through Wednesday Night...

Global teleconnection pattern of -AO/-NAO/+PNA/-EPO will result in a
colder pattern over the eastern half of North America early next
week.  Driving the amplification is the high latitude ridging over
the western CONUS (+PNA) which will result in an anomalously deep
trough developing over the eastern US.  The global models have been
advertising this for well over a week, though finer details are
starting to become more apparent.  In terms of model trends, the
models continue to have good agreement aloft with the trough
developing and the eventual closing off of the upper low.  The trend
over the last few days however, has the closed low more to our
north/northeast along with the slug of coldest air passing through
the Great Lakes and into the interior northeastern US.

As the upper trough digs in and closes off, we`ll see plenty of low
level moisture and very cold air pouring into the region from the
northwest.  Several perturbations aloft will rotate around the
closed low bringing multiple rounds of precipitation to the region
from Monday through late Tuesday night.  Initial precipitation on
Monday will likely be in the form of rain and snow due to a lack of
sufficient cold air depth near the surface.  This will be a temporary
situation as colder air will mixdown and additional cold air will be
pulled in from the northwest throughout the day.  Precipitation will
likely be in the form of light snow by afternoon and will continue
into Monday night.  With near surface temperatures remaining near
freezing, snowfall accumulations will likely be quite limited during
the day on Monday.  Temperatures will start off the day in the lower
30s and may see a small diurnal rise in the morning hours into the
lower-mid 30s before crashing back into the upper 20s to lower 30s
by evening.

By Monday night and Tuesday, combination of very cold air aloft and
plenty of low-level moisture will result in snow showers across the
region.  Model proximity soundings do show some periods of increase
instability so periods of moderate to occasionally heavy snow
showers will be possible.  In addition to the snow, gusty
northwesterly winds are likely resulting in reduced visibilities at
times along with some blowing snow.  Snow showers will continue into
the day on Tuesday and then start to diminish from west to east
Tuesday night as the upper level low moves off to the east and the
upper trough axis also shifts to the east.

In terms of snowfall potential, there remains a bit of spread in the
deterministic runs on QPF amounts.  In addition, we`re likely to see
a very sharp gradient in precipitation from our western sections to
our eastern sections.  Out across the west (west of I-65), we`re
likely to see a few hundredths of QPF to maybe a tenth, while two to
three tenths of liquid QPF will be possible out in the east.
Combining this with snow ratios starting off at 11-12:1 and then
increasing to 19-20:1 by the end of the period would result in a
gradient of snowfall across the region.

The SREF ensembles are generally lighter in the QPF department as
well with the ARW core members showing higher QPF amounts than the
NMM counterparts.  The ARW cores are likely picking up on the
potential for convective snows. Though, we should note in the last
major snow event that the NMM cores performed much better than the
ARW cores.

Utilizing the above QPF and snow ratios, it appears that a total of
1-2 inches of snowfall will be possible in areas along and west of I-
65...with amounts of 2-3 inches possible east of I-65 out toward the
I-75 corridor.  Given that we`ll be on the SW side of the cyclonic
flow, we expect slightly higher amounts just to our east and
southeast given the orographical lift component.  These anticipated
accumulations are very close to the existing forecast, so forecast
continuity has been preserved.

As for temperatures, the trend in the blended guidance has been
slightly cooler in the most recent runs.  Lows Monday night look to
cool into the lower 20s with highs on Tuesday warming into the mid-
upper 20s.  Lows Wednesday morning will depend on snowpack and if we
see any clearing.  Current model blends suggest lows in the lower-
middle teens at this time.  Highs on Wednesday look to warm into the
lower-mid 20s in the north with mid-upper 20s across the far south
and southwest.


Thursday - Saturday...

Overall, not much change in the forecast thinking through this
portion of the forecast period.  We`ll remain in a broad northwest
flow during the period as a mean trough axis will be parked across
the eastern third of the US.  The core of the cold will be shunted
off to our east, so a moderation in temperatures is expected.  Will
continue to watch for the potential for another fast moving clipper
that may move through the region Thu/Fri.  The GFS is a bit more
aggressive through the period with these systems while the Euro is a
bit weaker.  These systems could bring another period of light snow
along with some additional accumulations.  For now, have trended
temperature forecasts close to the ensemble means to resolve the
differences in the deterministic runs.  Highs Thu-Sat will likely
warm into the 30s in the north with some low 40s in the south,
overnight lows will range from the teens to the lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1210 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle with some mid and
high level cloudiness through the afternoon hours. Expect steady WSW
winds between 5 and 10 mph. Skies will be clear tonight with calm or
a very light SSW wind. Sunday brings increasing mid and upper level
clouds with a steady SSW wind 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........BJS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061738
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1138 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period with mainly high
clouds. Southwest winds will become light tonight and increase
during the late morning on Sunday. Some gusts of 16-18kt possible
at all sites after 16z.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...PS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061720
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING. JUST DEALING WITH
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOADED IN THE LATEST
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS TO BETTER DEAL WITH LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A 5 TO 6 KFT
DECK THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN SCATTERED TO
BROKEN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE THE
STORY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 061711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1211 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1210 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle with some mid and
high level cloudiness through the afternoon hours. Expect steady WSW
winds between 5 and 10 mph. Skies will be clear tonight with calm or
a very light SSW wind. Sunday brings increasing mid and upper level
clouds with a steady SSW wind 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........BJS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 061711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1211 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1210 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle with some mid and
high level cloudiness through the afternoon hours. Expect steady WSW
winds between 5 and 10 mph. Skies will be clear tonight with calm or
a very light SSW wind. Sunday brings increasing mid and upper level
clouds with a steady SSW wind 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........BJS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 061711
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1211 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1210 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF cycle with some mid and
high level cloudiness through the afternoon hours. Expect steady WSW
winds between 5 and 10 mph. Skies will be clear tonight with calm or
a very light SSW wind. Sunday brings increasing mid and upper level
clouds with a steady SSW wind 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........BJS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061550
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK LATE THIS MORNING. JUST DEALING WITH
SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS FROM TIME TO TIME. LOADED IN THE LATEST
HOURLY TEMPS...DEWS...AND WINDS TO BETTER DEAL WITH LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K FEET AGL RANGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061247 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K FEET AGL RANGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061247 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K FEET AGL RANGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061247 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 747 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE DAY...ALTHOUGH SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-6K FEET AGL RANGE WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...BEFORE
CLEARING OUT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KLMK 061141
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
641 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Scattered high-level cirrus clouds prevail across the area this
morning. Scattered mid clouds also could affect SDF at times today.
Otherwise, conditions will be VFR through the forecast period.
Surface winds will be southwest at 4-8 kts today and then south-
southwest at 5 kts or less tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........TWF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 061141
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
641 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Scattered high-level cirrus clouds prevail across the area this
morning. Scattered mid clouds also could affect SDF at times today.
Otherwise, conditions will be VFR through the forecast period.
Surface winds will be southwest at 4-8 kts today and then south-
southwest at 5 kts or less tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 061141
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
641 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 635 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Scattered high-level cirrus clouds prevail across the area this
morning. Scattered mid clouds also could affect SDF at times today.
Otherwise, conditions will be VFR through the forecast period.
Surface winds will be southwest at 4-8 kts today and then south-
southwest at 5 kts or less tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
524 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST DAT FEB 6 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 524 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

High pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Winds should pick up from the south southwest around 5 knots
during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 061124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
524 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST DAT FEB 6 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 524 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

High pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Winds should pick up from the south southwest around 5 knots
during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
524 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 524 AM CST DAT FEB 6 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 524 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

High pressure will produce VFR conditions at all sites through the
period. Winds should pick up from the south southwest around 5 knots
during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 060910
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 060910
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060910
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
310 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 257 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Start of the long term will be dominated by unseasonably cold
conditions as a deep mid/upper lvl trof of low pressure persists
over the eastern part of the CONUS and se Canada. Could be a
touch of light snow/flurries Monday night into Tuesday as the deep
cyclonic flow dips all the way south into the gulf coast states.
Not looking for any big impacts though. The rest of the period
should be precip free as we lose the cyclonic flow aloft and the
main trof axis shifts eastward. Should see a bit of a moderation
back toward normal temps as we head toward next weekend, but will
remain on chilly with highs by Friday still only getting back into
the 40s at most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 060855
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plummets 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE
RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED
ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID
SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPRAWLED ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ALOFT...TROUGHING IS BISECTING THE CONUS
FROM WEST TO EAST. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS
SWINGING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE
IS SPIRALING ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ADVECTING IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS...SOME OF THE COOLER VALLEYS HAVE MANAGED TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S...WHILE THE RIDGETOPS REMAIN IN THE UPPER
20S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE AMPLIFIED
PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PASSING SOUTHERN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR THICKER HIGH
CLOUDS TODAY...WITH SOME LOWER TO MIDDLE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR MOST
TODAY. SOME SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL WORK IN TONIGHT...WITH SKIES
GRADUALLY CLEARING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID
20S IN SHELTERED VALLEYS...TO THE LOWER 30S ON THE RIDGES.

MEANWHILE...A DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT ALIGNED SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BETTER RETURN FLOW AND MOST SUNNY SKIES FOR PART OF THE DAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE LOWER 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF SITES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060827
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
327 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sct-bkn high level cirrus clouds and few-sct mid-level clouds will
prevail through the forecast period, but these will have little/no
impact as conditions remain VFR through the period at SDF, LEX, and
BWG. Light/calm surface winds overnight will be southwest at 4-8 kts
on Saturday then south-southwest at 5 kts or less Saturday night.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060827
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
327 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sfc high pressure and an upper level trough passing well to our
south this weekend will leave the Ohio Valley free of any major
weather concerns.  Expect partly cloudy skies through Sunday with
slightly above normal temps.  Highs today should reach the upper 40s
to lower 50s.  Tonight return flow will increase especially across
our southern Indiana and west central KY counties keeping these
areas a bit more mild in the lower 30s for lows.  East of I-65
expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.  Sunday southwest
winds may turn a bit breezy with highs creeping up into the 50-55
degree range.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 325 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sunday Night - Wednesday...

An anomalously deep trough will get carved out over the eastern U.S.
for the first half of the work week in response to a strong ridge
along the west coast.  A strong northern stream low pressure system
will dive south into the Midwest leading the charge.  This low
pressure will push a cold front through the Ohio Valley Sun night.
There is some model variance as to how quickly precipitation along
the front will commence Sun night.  The GFS is most aggressive with
precipitation starting Sun evening before midnight while the
ECMWF/NAM are less optimistic and lower on precipitation amounts
especially before midnight.  The current forecast reflects a blend
of the mid range models in regards to precip timing and precip
amounts Sun night. With this mind, precipitation should begin as a
light rain late Sun evening and then transition to snow from NW to
SE after midnight.

By sunrise Mon morning, most locations will see light snow.  As the
upper low dives deep into the Midwest, colder air will rush into the
area on Monday.  Temperatures and precip type will be a challenge
for Monday.  The pattern and soundings would support mainly on and
off light snow showers throughout the day on Monday.  However, sfc
temps may rise just enough especially east of I-65 to result in a
change over back to rain/snow mix.  Or perhaps p-type may remain
mostly snow but melting on contact with the sfc as most locations
still look to see highs on Monday above freezing for at least part
of the day.  Will need to fine tune the temp curve and p-types for
Mon as this weather system is better captured by the short range
models.  For now, trended Mon colder and snowier.  Also of note,
soundings Mon afternoon/evening indicate a thin ribbon of
instability well into the dendritic growth zone which could result
in moderate to at times heavy bursts of snow.

We`ll remain in a cold, snow showery pattern Mon night-Wed as the
the upper trough slowly progresses eastward.  P-type looks to be all
light snow Mon night-Wed with snow ratios increasing to 15:1 to 20:1
as a much colder airmass settles in.  Bursts of moderate snow will
again be possible Tues during the day as lapse rates steepen a bit.

Preliminarily, light snow accumulations Mon-Wed look to range around
1 inch to possibly up to around 3 inches total for the 3 day period.
Stay tuned as we tweak the snowfall forecast in coming days.

Tues/Wed look to be the coldest days in the 7 day forecast with
highs only reaching the mid to upper 20s.  Lows look to drop into
the teens.  As previously mentioned, however, these numbers may need
to be adjusted if a decent snow cover can be established.

Thursday - Friday...

Temps look to moderate by the end of the work week back into the 30s
and maybe even lower 40s for highs as the upper trough begins to
move east of the area. Both the 0Z GFS/ECMWF hint at one last
shortwave diving down into the region some time Thu or Fri providing
another round of light snow to the region.  However, big differences
in the progression of the trough/colder air moving east and
shortwave timing exist amongst long range models.  Therefore will
keep Thu/Fri dry for now and side temps toward the model blend.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sct-bkn high level cirrus clouds and few-sct mid-level clouds will
prevail through the forecast period, but these will have little/no
impact as conditions remain VFR through the period at SDF, LEX, and
BWG. Light/calm surface winds overnight will be southwest at 4-8 kts
on Saturday then south-southwest at 5 kts or less Saturday night.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060614 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE
RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED
ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID
SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060614 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE
RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED
ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID
SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060614 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE
RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED
ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID
SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060530
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1230 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

No major weather concerns tonight or Saturday as the region lies
under the influence of weak ridging at the surface and aloft and
with a very dry air mass in place, just expecting increasing high
clouds at times through the period. Plan on lows tonight to fall
into the mid 20s to around 30, coldest in the valleys and across the
Bluegrass region.

Expect a seasonable and dry Saturday with a mix of clouds throughout
the day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to low 50s with
south winds. Saturday night lows will be right around freezing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances,
accumulating snow potential and temperatures next week.

Southwest flow aloft and at the surface on Sunday will allow
temperatures to rise well into the 50s region wide. This is in
advance of the upper trough and surface front that is expected to be
on our northwest fringes by Sunday night.

Weak warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the surface low
will bring a band of precipitation across the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Soundings show that temperatures will be warm enough
initially to support rain to maybe a rain/snow mix in the north as
evaporative cooling effects take place. The main slug of cold air
associated with the upper trough doesn`t arrive until Monday late
morning or afternoon, which is when temperatures begin to crash and
soundings support all snow. Depending on the frontal passage timing
Monday, a non-diurnal temperature curve may be needed (maybe more
so in southwest or south central Indiana).

The closed upper low sets up directly overhead Monday night through
Wednesday with various shortwave troughs pivoting through. Model QPF
looks to be light overall /0.2 to 0.3 over 48 hours/ but with snow
ratios likely in the 15-20:1 range at times, a few inches of
accumulation will be possible over the course of 2 to 3 days. The
highest amounts will likely be from southeast Indiana to the
Bluegrass region in the favored cyclonic flow area. Some travel
impacts are possible at times next week. Beyond Wednesday,
deterministic models vary considerably but hint at another fast
moving shortwave trough coming through northwest flow in the
Thursday/Friday time frame.

As far as POPs, a model consensus continues to come in too low /20
to 30 percent/ so bumped this back up to 40 to 60 percent range.
This probably will need to be increased further Monday night into
Tuesday night.

Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be tricky depending on 1)
cloud cover (especially at night) and 2) potential snow cover. A
model consensus trended somewhat cooler, so have largely stayed with
this idea, especially for the Wednesday-Friday time period. Overall,
the coldest days of the week look to be Tuesday and Wednesday
/highs in the 20s to near freezing/ with the coldest mornings
Wednesday and Thursday /lows in the teens/.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1225 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2016

Sct-bkn high level cirrus clouds and few-sct mid-level clouds will
prevail through the forecast period, but these will have little/no
impact as conditions remain VFR through the period at SDF, LEX, and
BWG. Light/calm surface winds overnight will be southwest at 4-8 kts
on Saturday then south-southwest at 5 kts or less Saturday night.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 060516 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface High pressure will migrate eastward across the Tennessee
Valley with time. This will allow our high temps to moderate
nicely, into the 50s over the weekend.

Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now
spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River
valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level
trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend. This will set the
express train up for a plunge of much colder air to come, in the
longer term. As this transition occurs, chance cat Pops enter the
forecast by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plumments 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060347
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
715 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052333 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface High pressure will migrate eastward across the Tennessee
Valley with time. This will allow our high temps to moderate
nicely, into the 50s over the weekend.

Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now
spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River
valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level
trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend. This will set the
express train up for a plunge of much colder air to come, in the
longer term. As this transition occurs, chance cat Pops enter the
forecast by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plumments 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots in the latter half of the
period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052333 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface High pressure will migrate eastward across the Tennessee
Valley with time. This will allow our high temps to moderate
nicely, into the 50s over the weekend.

Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now
spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River
valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level
trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend. This will set the
express train up for a plunge of much colder air to come, in the
longer term. As this transition occurs, chance cat Pops enter the
forecast by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plumments 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots in the latter half of the
period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052333 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Updated the AVIATION discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface High pressure will migrate eastward across the Tennessee
Valley with time. This will allow our high temps to moderate
nicely, into the 50s over the weekend.

Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now
spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River
valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level
trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend. This will set the
express train up for a plunge of much colder air to come, in the
longer term. As this transition occurs, chance cat Pops enter the
forecast by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plumments 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 533 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots in the latter half of the
period.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KLMK 052314
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
614 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

No major weather concerns tonight or Saturday as the region lies
under the influence of weak ridging at the surface and aloft and
with a very dry air mass in place, just expecting increasing high
clouds at times through the period. Plan on lows tonight to fall
into the mid 20s to around 30, coldest in the valleys and across the
Bluegrass region.

Expect a seasonable and dry Saturday with a mix of clouds throughout
the day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to low 50s with
south winds. Saturday night lows will be right around freezing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances,
accumulating snow potential and temperatures next week.

Southwest flow aloft and at the surface on Sunday will allow
temperatures to rise well into the 50s region wide. This is in
advance of the upper trough and surface front that is expected to be
on our northwest fringes by Sunday night.

Weak warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the surface low
will bring a band of precipitation across the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Soundings show that temperatures will be warm enough
initially to support rain to maybe a rain/snow mix in the north as
evaporative cooling effects take place. The main slug of cold air
associated with the upper trough doesn`t arrive until Monday late
morning or afternoon, which is when temperatures begin to crash and
soundings support all snow. Depending on the frontal passage timing
Monday, a non-diurnal temperature curve may be needed (maybe more
so in southwest or south central Indiana).

The closed upper low sets up directly overhead Monday night through
Wednesday with various shortwave troughs pivoting through. Model QPF
looks to be light overall /0.2 to 0.3 over 48 hours/ but with snow
ratios likely in the 15-20:1 range at times, a few inches of
accumulation will be possible over the course of 2 to 3 days. The
highest amounts will likely be from southeast Indiana to the
Bluegrass region in the favored cyclonic flow area. Some travel
impacts are possible at times next week. Beyond Wednesday,
deterministic models vary considerably but hint at another fast
moving shortwave trough coming through northwest flow in the
Thursday/Friday time frame.

As far as POPs, a model consensus continues to come in too low /20
to 30 percent/ so bumped this back up to 40 to 60 percent range.
This probably will need to be increased further Monday night into
Tuesday night.

Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be tricky depending on 1)
cloud cover (especially at night) and 2) potential snow cover. A
model consensus trended somewhat cooler, so have largely stayed with
this idea, especially for the Wednesday-Friday time period. Overall,
the coldest days of the week look to be Tuesday and Wednesday
/highs in the 20s to near freezing/ with the coldest mornings
Wednesday and Thursday /lows in the teens/.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period, with only
scattered mid and high clouds expected across the Ohio Valley
through Saturday night. SW winds will go nearly calm this evening as
the boundary-layer decouples. Expect winds to pick up again late Sat
morning as mixing deepens, but speeds will stay below 10 kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 052314
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
614 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

No major weather concerns tonight or Saturday as the region lies
under the influence of weak ridging at the surface and aloft and
with a very dry air mass in place, just expecting increasing high
clouds at times through the period. Plan on lows tonight to fall
into the mid 20s to around 30, coldest in the valleys and across the
Bluegrass region.

Expect a seasonable and dry Saturday with a mix of clouds throughout
the day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to low 50s with
south winds. Saturday night lows will be right around freezing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances,
accumulating snow potential and temperatures next week.

Southwest flow aloft and at the surface on Sunday will allow
temperatures to rise well into the 50s region wide. This is in
advance of the upper trough and surface front that is expected to be
on our northwest fringes by Sunday night.

Weak warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the surface low
will bring a band of precipitation across the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Soundings show that temperatures will be warm enough
initially to support rain to maybe a rain/snow mix in the north as
evaporative cooling effects take place. The main slug of cold air
associated with the upper trough doesn`t arrive until Monday late
morning or afternoon, which is when temperatures begin to crash and
soundings support all snow. Depending on the frontal passage timing
Monday, a non-diurnal temperature curve may be needed (maybe more
so in southwest or south central Indiana).

The closed upper low sets up directly overhead Monday night through
Wednesday with various shortwave troughs pivoting through. Model QPF
looks to be light overall /0.2 to 0.3 over 48 hours/ but with snow
ratios likely in the 15-20:1 range at times, a few inches of
accumulation will be possible over the course of 2 to 3 days. The
highest amounts will likely be from southeast Indiana to the
Bluegrass region in the favored cyclonic flow area. Some travel
impacts are possible at times next week. Beyond Wednesday,
deterministic models vary considerably but hint at another fast
moving shortwave trough coming through northwest flow in the
Thursday/Friday time frame.

As far as POPs, a model consensus continues to come in too low /20
to 30 percent/ so bumped this back up to 40 to 60 percent range.
This probably will need to be increased further Monday night into
Tuesday night.

Temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be tricky depending on 1)
cloud cover (especially at night) and 2) potential snow cover. A
model consensus trended somewhat cooler, so have largely stayed with
this idea, especially for the Wednesday-Friday time period. Overall,
the coldest days of the week look to be Tuesday and Wednesday
/highs in the 20s to near freezing/ with the coldest mornings
Wednesday and Thursday /lows in the teens/.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 600 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions will persist through the valid TAF period, with only
scattered mid and high clouds expected across the Ohio Valley
through Saturday night. SW winds will go nearly calm this evening as
the boundary-layer decouples. Expect winds to pick up again late Sat
morning as mixing deepens, but speeds will stay below 10 kt.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 052230
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 052139
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KJKL 052045
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 052045
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KLMK 052016
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
316 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

No major weather concerns tonight or Saturday as the region lies
under the influence of weak ridging at the surface/aloft and with
a very dry air mass in place, just expecting increasing high
clouds at times through the period. Plan on lows tonight to fall
into the mid 20s to around 30, coldest in the valleys and across
the Bluegrass region.

Expect a seasonable and dry Saturday with a mix of clouds throughout
the day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 40s to low 50s with
south winds. Saturday night lows will be right around freezing.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances,
accumulating snow potential and temperatures next week.

Southwest flow aloft and at the surface on Sunday will allow
temperatures to rise into the 50s region wide. This is in advance
of the upper trough and surface front that is expected to be on
our northwest fringes by Sunday night.

Weak warm advection and isentropic lift ahead of the surface low
will bring a band of precipitation across the area Sunday night into
Monday morning. Soundings show that temperatures will be warm enough
initially to support rain to maybe a rain/snow mix in the north as
evaporative cooling effects take place. The main slug of cold air
associated with the upper trough doesn`t arrive until Monday late
morning or afternoon, which is when temperatures begin to crash and
soundings support all snow. Depending on the frontal passage timing
Monday, a non-diurnal temperature curve may be needed (maybe more
so in southwest or south central Indiana).

The closed upper low sets up directly overhead Monday night through
Wednesday with various shortwave troughs pivoting through. Model QPF
looks to be light overall /0.2 to 0.3 over 48 hours/ but with snow
ratios likely in the 15-20:1 range at times, a few inches of
accumulation will be possible over the course of 2 to 3 days. The
highest amounts will likely be from southeast Indiana to the
Bluegrass region in the favored cyclonic flow area. Some travel
impacts are possible at times next week. Beyond Wednesday,
deterministic models vary considerably but hint at another fast
moving shortwave trough coming through northwest flow in the
Thursday/Friday time frame.

As far as POPs, a model consensus continues to come in too low /20
to 30 percent/ so bumped this back up to 40 to 60 percent range.
This probably will need to be increased further Monday night into
Tuesday night.

Temperatures will be tricky depending on 1) cloud cover
(especially at night) and 2) potential snow cover. A model
consensus trended somewhat cooler, so have largely stayed with
this idea, especially for the Wednesday-Friday time period.
Overall, the coldest days of the week look to be Tuesday and
Wednesday /highs in the 20s to near freezing/ with the coldest
mornings Wednesday and Thursday /lows in the teens/.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the upcoming TAF period.  A
few high clouds will move in to the region this afternoon and
tonight, but will not impact aviation.  Surface winds this afternoon
will be light with speeds of less than 6 knots.  Directions will be
variable at times, but a predominant south to southwest flow is
expected to develop by late afternoon and continue through the
overnight hours.  VFR conditions will continue on Saturday with a
light southwesterly wind.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........ZT
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KPAH 051901
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
101 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface High pressure will migrate eastward across the Tennessee
Valley with time. This will allow our high temps to moderate
nicely, into the 50s over the weekend.

Meanwhile, a broader troffing action begins aloft, as energy now
spilling out of the southern Rockies dives across the Red River
valley later today, and carves the beginning of a mean upper level
trof over the Mississippi valley this weekend. This will set the
express train up for a plunge of much colder air to come, in the
longer term. As this transition occurs, chance cat Pops enter the
forecast by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plumments 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Local curule suggests scattered MVFR decks may work across
terminals (particularly KEVV/KOWB) later this pm/early
evening...but Satellite imagery suggests differential heating has
slowed the daytime southward progress of said clouds. Otherwise,
time/heights show mid or high cigs developing and prevailing thru
the period, with VFR predominating thru the forecast.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051720
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051720
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1220 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051712
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1212 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

A shortwave ridge overhead today will be replaced by an incoming
shortwave trough tomorrow. Also, a weak surface trough will pass by
just to our north today. However, despite these features, a dry
lower atmosphere will result in just an increase in high clouds this
afternoon through Saturday morning, and some mid clouds Saturday
afternoon.

Highs today will be in the middle 40s, with lows tonight in the 20s.
Lower 50s appear attainable Saturday with southwest breezes possibly
gusting into the teens in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

After a shortwave ridge gives us nice weather for the weekend, a
deep upper trof digging into the eastern United States will bring
chilly and unsettled weather to the LMK CWA for the work week.

A clipper is still expected to cross the Great Lakes region Sunday
night-Monday night, then pull off to the northeast
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker clipper may drop into the Plains behind
the first one, traversing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday
night and Wednesday. These systems plus any pieces of upper level
energy along with sufficient moisture and cold temperatures
necessitate PoPs in the forecast at least Sunday night through
Wednesday morning. The precipitation should start off as mostly rain
Sunday night and Monday, but then will be in the form of light snow
Monday night through Wednesday as cold air pours in from Canada.
Advisory level snows may be possible.

Temperatures are somewhat challenging, especially once the cold
Canadian air invades the area. Wednesday-Thursday numerical GFS
temperature guidance has been steadily warming over the past three
runs, mirroring its increasing 1000-500 thickness trend over that
same number of runs. The ECMWF numerical guidance, on the other
hand, has been on a general cooling trend recently. The EC has been
more consistent with the strength of the eastern trough over its
past few runs. Given the colder EC`s relative consistency and with
the possibility of snow cover, will go on the cold side of guidance
for temperatures from Monday night on. That puts us into the teens
for morning temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, but how much snow
we get will have a big influence on just how low the temperatures
actually go.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1212 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions are expected throughout the upcoming TAF period.  A
few high clouds will move in to the region this afternoon and
tonight, but will not impact aviation.  Surface winds this afternoon
will be light with speeds of less than 6 knots.  Directions will be
variable at times, but a predominant south to southwest flow is
expected to develop by late afternoon and continue through the
overnight hours.  VFR conditions will continue on Saturday with a
light southwesterly wind.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........MJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

AFTER A COLD MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD REBOUND TOWARDS THE 40 DEGREE
MARK TODAY WITH WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. SO
DID A QUICK REFRESH TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST
RECENT OBS. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051507
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051507
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO REMOVE RAIN
FOR ALL OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF MONDAY NIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DURING THIS TIME SHOW THAT PRECIP WILL BE SNOW
DUE TO COMPLETE LACK OF ANY WARM AIR ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPS BEING
NEAR FREEZING OR COLDER. ALSO TRIED TO DO SOME INITIAL FINE TUNING
OF PRECIP TIMING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL/GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051300 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

ANOTHER QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY FINE TUNE THE T AND TD GRIDS
THROUGH THE MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND
COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVER THE AREA.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 051128
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

A shortwave ridge overhead today will be replaced by an incoming
shortwave trough tomorrow. Also, a weak surface trough will pass by
just to our north today. However, despite these features, a dry
lower atmosphere will result in just an increase in high clouds this
afternoon through Saturday morning, and some mid clouds Saturday
afternoon.

Highs today will be in the middle 40s, with lows tonight in the 20s.
Lower 50s appear attainable Saturday with southwest breezes possibly
gusting into the teens in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

After a shortwave ridge gives us nice weather for the weekend, a
deep upper trof digging into the eastern United States will bring
chilly and unsettled weather to the LMK CWA for the work week.

A clipper is still expected to cross the Great Lakes region Sunday
night-Monday night, then pull off to the northeast
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker clipper may drop into the Plains behind
the first one, traversing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday
night and Wednesday. These systems plus any pieces of upper level
energy along with sufficient moisture and cold temperatures
necessitate PoPs in the forecast at least Sunday night through
Wednesday morning. The precipitation should start off as mostly rain
Sunday night and Monday, but then will be in the form of light snow
Monday night through Wednesday as cold air pours in from Canada.
Advisory level snows may be possible.

Temperatures are somewhat challenging, especially once the cold
Canadian air invades the area. Wednesday-Thursday numerical GFS
temperature guidance has been steadily warming over the past three
runs, mirroring its increasing 1000-500 thickness trend over that
same number of runs. The ECMWF numerical guidance, on the other
hand, has been on a general cooling trend recently. The EC has been
more consistent with the strength of the eastern trough over its
past few runs. Given the colder EC`s relative consistency and with
the possibility of snow cover, will go on the cold side of guidance
for temperatures from Monday night on. That puts us into the teens
for morning temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, but how much snow
we get will have a big influence on just how low the temperatures
actually go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions will hold at SDF, LEX, and BWG throughout the
forecast period. Sct to bkn high-level cirrus clouds will move east
into and across Kentucky today, but no low clouds are expected.
Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 mph today then light
southwest tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051128
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
628 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

A shortwave ridge overhead today will be replaced by an incoming
shortwave trough tomorrow. Also, a weak surface trough will pass by
just to our north today. However, despite these features, a dry
lower atmosphere will result in just an increase in high clouds this
afternoon through Saturday morning, and some mid clouds Saturday
afternoon.

Highs today will be in the middle 40s, with lows tonight in the 20s.
Lower 50s appear attainable Saturday with southwest breezes possibly
gusting into the teens in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

After a shortwave ridge gives us nice weather for the weekend, a
deep upper trof digging into the eastern United States will bring
chilly and unsettled weather to the LMK CWA for the work week.

A clipper is still expected to cross the Great Lakes region Sunday
night-Monday night, then pull off to the northeast
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker clipper may drop into the Plains behind
the first one, traversing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday
night and Wednesday. These systems plus any pieces of upper level
energy along with sufficient moisture and cold temperatures
necessitate PoPs in the forecast at least Sunday night through
Wednesday morning. The precipitation should start off as mostly rain
Sunday night and Monday, but then will be in the form of light snow
Monday night through Wednesday as cold air pours in from Canada.
Advisory level snows may be possible.

Temperatures are somewhat challenging, especially once the cold
Canadian air invades the area. Wednesday-Thursday numerical GFS
temperature guidance has been steadily warming over the past three
runs, mirroring its increasing 1000-500 thickness trend over that
same number of runs. The ECMWF numerical guidance, on the other
hand, has been on a general cooling trend recently. The EC has been
more consistent with the strength of the eastern trough over its
past few runs. Given the colder EC`s relative consistency and with
the possibility of snow cover, will go on the cold side of guidance
for temperatures from Monday night on. That puts us into the teens
for morning temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, but how much snow
we get will have a big influence on just how low the temperatures
actually go.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 625 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions will hold at SDF, LEX, and BWG throughout the
forecast period. Sct to bkn high-level cirrus clouds will move east
into and across Kentucky today, but no low clouds are expected.
Winds will be south to southwest at 5-10 mph today then light
southwest tonight.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD START OFF QUIETLY...AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO END THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY TOPPING AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA.
CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE STEADILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY EVENING...AS A STRONG AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BARRELS OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CONUS TO BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
THE FIRST PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY MIX WITH SNOW OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOW TO MID 30S. THE PRECIP SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO ALL RAIN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH WILL ALLOW COLD AIR TO SPILL QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION. THIS CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES CAUSE THE RAIN TO
TRANSITION QUICKLY TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW BY LATE
MONDAY EVENING. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
REGION AND TEMPERATURES FALL TO AROUND FREEZING. SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE PERIODS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN RAIN MAY MIX
WITH THE SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER. THE LAST BIT OF SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKYEARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO DRY AND COLD.

THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY...AS HIGHS ON
THAT DAY ARE ONLY FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES ON FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS ON THAT DAY FORECAST TO MAX OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. THE
COLDEST NIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE MERCURY WILL LIKELY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
MID TO UPPER TEENS BOTH NIGHTS. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050807
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Surface high pressure and a s/wv ridge will result in quiet wx
today. Expect some high clouds at times. Mid level energy/trof
will move SE from the Plains tonight to the Gulf coast by 00z
Sunday. Some clouds, but no precip expected with this system. It
will be mild today through Sunday, seasonably cold at night. Our
next chance of precip will be with a digging H5 trof/low into the
Midwest and Great Lakes region Sunday night. Will carry low chance
PoPs for rain Sunday evening, rain/snow overnight. QPF is rather
light and temps are forecast mostly above 32F. Used a blend of MOS
and existing numbers for highs/lows.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Good synoptic agreement among forecast models and their ensembles
results in higher than average confidence in the long term, though
the specific timing of individual waves in fast cyclonic flow
remains somewhat less certain during the first half of next week.

Upper level energy progged to come onshore into British Columbia and
the Pacific Northwest Friday night is forecast to move across
southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into the Upper
Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper level
pattern across the lower 48 and result in the development of a deep
low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the new
week.

Cold air advection will be in full force by Monday with the passage
of the initial cold front Sunday night. Perturbations streaming
southward in the cyclonic flow on the back side of the upper low
will keep a chance of light precipitation in the forecast across at
least a part of the forecast area into Tuesday.

Models are still not in the best agreement on lower boundary layer
temperatures Monday, which will make a difference between rain and
snow. At this time, we maintain the mention of both on Monday.
However, I still would not be surprised to see a lowering of
forecast temperatures as the period draws closer, which would result
in primarily snow. Anything that falls Monday night and Tuesday
should be in the form of a powdery light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out Monday into Tuesday.
Minor impacts from this system should be primarily east of the
Mississippi River on Monday, then migrating into just southwest
Indiana and the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky by Tuesday.

The upper low should be departing the region by Tuesday night and
Wednesday, but continued cold northwest flow will likely stick
around through much of the week. Nonetheless, some deamplification
in the northwest flow pattern should result in a moderating trend by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 207 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

VFR conditions with variable high cloud cover. West winds
5-10 kts today, light tonight.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050806
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
306 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 1221 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

A shortwave ridge overhead today will be replaced by an incoming
shortwave trough tomorrow. Also, a weak surface trough will pass by
just to our north today. However, despite these features, a dry
lower atmosphere will result in just an increase in high clouds this
afternoon through Saturday morning, and some mid clouds Saturday
afternoon.

Highs today will be in the middle 40s, with lows tonight in the 20s.
Lower 50s appear attainable Saturday with southwest breezes possibly
gusting into the teens in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 305 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

After a shortwave ridge gives us nice weather for the weekend, a
deep upper trof digging into the eastern United States will bring
chilly and unsettled weather to the LMK CWA for the work week.

A clipper is still expected to cross the Great Lakes region Sunday
night-Monday night, then pull off to the northeast
Tuesday/Wednesday. A weaker clipper may drop into the Plains behind
the first one, traversing the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday
night and Wednesday. These systems plus any pieces of upper level
energy along with sufficient moisture and cold temperatures
necessitate PoPs in the forecast at least Sunday night through
Wednesday morning. The precipitation should start off as mostly rain
Sunday night and Monday, but then will be in the form of light snow
Monday night through Wednesday as cold air pours in from Canada.
Advisory level snows may be possible.

Temperatures are somewhat challenging, especially once the cold
Canadian air invades the area. Wednesday-Thursday numerical GFS
temperature guidance has been steadily warming over the past three
runs, mirroring its increasing 1000-500 thickness trend over that
same number of runs. The ECMWF numerical guidance, on the other
hand, has been on a general cooling trend recently. The EC has been
more consistent with the strength of the eastern trough over its
past few runs. Given the colder EC`s relative consistency and with
the possibility of snow cover, will go on the cold side of guidance
for temperatures from Monday night on. That puts us into the teens
for morning temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, but how much snow
we get will have a big influence on just how low the temperatures
actually go.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions prevail at SDF, LEX, and BWG TAF sites at this time,
and this will continue through the forecast period. The sky is clear
now, and only some high-level cirrus clouds are expected on Friday.
Winds overnight will be light and variable, becoming south to
southwest on Friday at 5-10 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........13
Aviation..........TWF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
HIGH IS CLEARING THE SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...
ALSO BRINGING AN END TO SOME LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST.
CLEAR SKIES SPREADING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS...WILL SUPPORT AN EXTRA DROP OFF IN TEMPS FOR THE VALLEYS
TOWARD DAWN. AS IT STANDS NOW...READINGS VARY FROM THE MID 20S IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EAST AND OVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION TO THE UPPER
20S ON THE RIDGES AND LOCATIONS STILL UNDER THE CLOUDS ALONG AND
NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND
20 DEGREES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...CURRENTLY.

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE SHORT TERM AS THEY ALL TAKE ANOTHER BOTTOMING OUT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH AND UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
TODAY. THIS LEAVES EAST KENTUCKY IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING
TODAY AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT...
MAINLY SOUTHERN STREAM...TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WAVE BECOMES MORE ISOLATED FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AS IT DIVES TO THE GULF COAST AND STARTS TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS SHOW LIMITED
SEPARATION FROM EACH OTHER AT THIS TIME STEP WITH THE GFS THE
WEAKEST AND CANADIAN A CLOSE MATCH TO THE ECMWF. MEANWHILE...THE
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY WITH ONLY A WEAK STREAM OF ENERGY SET TO DRIFT OVER THE
STATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT A GENERAL BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST...
WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR NEAR TERM DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY UNDER THE CONTROL...A TERM USED LOOSELY...OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. IN FACT...GIVEN SOME LIMITED ENERGY ALOFT AND THE WAVE
PASSING TO THE SOUTH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES FOR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST
GRIDS FOR NOW. WHAT WE WILL HAVE IS MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH READINGS REACHING THE UPPER 40S AND
LOW 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE FAIRLY CLOUDY SKIES. FOR
TODAY...GOOD SUNSHINE...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...WILL ERASE A
CHILLY START TO THE DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S MOST PLACES
ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND FOR T/TD/WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE
FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH SATURDAY. DID ADJUST THE MIN TEMPS
A TAD THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT FOR MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM LOW...SINGLE DIGITS...IN LINE
WITH MOS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH THEY MAY BE A
HAIR TOO LOW FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER...POPS...
AND WX FOR THE DIMINISHING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH EMPHASIS ON SOME EXTRA
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND THE
WINDS GO CALM. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE OUTSIDE OF REFINING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CURVES. CLOUDS ARE NOT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
CLEARING IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE EAST...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
AFTER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE
CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER
VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER...POPS...
AND WX FOR THE DIMINISHING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH EMPHASIS ON SOME EXTRA
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND THE
WINDS GO CALM. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE OUTSIDE OF REFINING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CURVES. CLOUDS ARE NOT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
CLEARING IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE EAST...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
AFTER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE
CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER
VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF



000
FXUS63 KJKL 050630 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO FINE TUNE SKY COVER...POPS...
AND WX FOR THE DIMINISHING FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WITH EMPHASIS ON SOME EXTRA
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE FAR EAST AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR AND THE
WINDS GO CALM. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND
WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE OUTSIDE OF REFINING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CURVES. CLOUDS ARE NOT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
CLEARING IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE EAST...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
AFTER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE
CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER
VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A DECK OF 4-5KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE FROM
THESE NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS. THIS ALL
CLEARS OFF BY DAWN WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN PREVALENT THROUGH THE
TAF FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BY DAWN...CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY UNDER WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS/GREIF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050509
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1209 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Clouds have pretty much exited the Bluegrass region, and the rest of
the night looks clear. Current forecast is on track, but a quick
update coming to clean up evening wording in the east.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Large area of low clouds will continue to slowly move out of the
region this afternoon and this evening.  The clearing line is just
west of I-65 now with mostly sunny skies noted across the western
third of KY.  Temperatures remained in the lower 30s in the cloud
cover, but have rebounded slightly across far western KY in the
sunshine.  Given the slower clearing trend, we`re likely to see our
highs for the day in the next hour or so.  We`ll probably see a few
ice pellets or snow flurries across the north-central and east-
central sections as the clouds clear out.  Temperatures this evening
will drop into the upper 20s.  With expected clearing overnight and
light winds, we`ll see overnight minimum temps drop into the lower
20s out across the Bluegrass region with 24-27 degrees elsewhere
across the district.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday as a weak front pushes
through the region.  However, moisture will be very lacking and only
a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s in
the west.  High pressure will then build into the region for Friday
night with lows cooling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

At the beginning of the period, we`ll see an upper trough cross the
region on Saturday.  This feature will cut off across the deep south
and spawn a coastal storm just off the Carolinas early Sunday
morning.  Moisture will be rather scant, so we`re just expecting
some cloudy skies as this feature pushes through the region.  Highs
Saturday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 and overnight
lows will cool into the lower 30s by Sunday morning.  Clouds will be
on the increase by Sunday as the next wave approaches from the
northwest.  Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s region wide.

By Sunday night, the global models are in general agreement with a
strong upper trough dropping out of the Midwest and then closing off
across the Ohio Valley in the Monday through Tuesday night time
frame.  While the models agree with the trough closing off, there
remains considerable differences in how far south the low tracks and
cuts off before heading off to the east by early Wednesday.  The
Euro and Canadian runs are more north/northeast with their tracks,
keeping the best moisture and colder air to our north and east.
Meanwhile, the GFS solutions continues to be the most wound up,
stronger, and furthest south and southwest in the guidance envelope.

Using a blend of the Euro/GEM/GFS keeps the ongoing forecast rather
consistent though it does warrant an increase in precipitation
chances and cloud cover.  Precipitation is likely to break out
Sunday night across the region.  Some warm air advection on the
south side of the system will likely keep precipitation in a mixed
state (Rain/Snow) through much of the night as temperatures remain
around the freezing mark.  Temperatures will see a diurnal spike on
Monday with upper 30s but then temperatures should crash during the
evening hours and then remaining cold through Tuesday night.  Lows
Monday night will drop into the lower-mid 20s with highs on Tuesday
only warming into the mid-upper 20s.  Tuesday night lows will cool
into the teens.

With these temperatures forecasts in mind, predominant precipitation
type will be in the form of snow Monday night through Tuesday night.
QPF amounts are not overly impressive compared to a dynamic synoptic
system with a good moisture feed off the Gulf or the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, with a very cold temperature profile in place in the
troposphere, snow ratios will be in the 17-22:1 range, so with even
light QPF amounts, a couple of inches of snow will be possible by
the time the precipitation ends late Tuesday night.

The upper low/trough axis is forecast to lift out on Wednesday which
will bring an end to the precipitation along with clearing skies.
Temperatures will be dependent on snowcover.  Since we believe that
we`ll have some on the ground, we have trimmed back temperatures
slightly with highs in the mid-upper 20s for Wednesday.  Very cold
conditions are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning if we
have sufficient clearing.  Raw model data supports lows in the lower
teens, but single digit lows would be more likely if we have
snowpack and clear skies.  Highs Thursday will modify slightly with
low-mid 30s expected, though these might still be too generous if
a light snowpack remains.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions prevail at SDF, LEX, and BWG TAF sites at this time,
and this will continue through the forecast period. Thy sky is clear
now, and only some high-level cirrus clouds are expected on Friday.
Winds overnight will be light and variable, becoming south to
southwest on Friday at 5-10 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......TWF




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050509
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1209 AM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Clouds have pretty much exited the Bluegrass region, and the rest of
the night looks clear. Current forecast is on track, but a quick
update coming to clean up evening wording in the east.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Large area of low clouds will continue to slowly move out of the
region this afternoon and this evening.  The clearing line is just
west of I-65 now with mostly sunny skies noted across the western
third of KY.  Temperatures remained in the lower 30s in the cloud
cover, but have rebounded slightly across far western KY in the
sunshine.  Given the slower clearing trend, we`re likely to see our
highs for the day in the next hour or so.  We`ll probably see a few
ice pellets or snow flurries across the north-central and east-
central sections as the clouds clear out.  Temperatures this evening
will drop into the upper 20s.  With expected clearing overnight and
light winds, we`ll see overnight minimum temps drop into the lower
20s out across the Bluegrass region with 24-27 degrees elsewhere
across the district.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday as a weak front pushes
through the region.  However, moisture will be very lacking and only
a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s in
the west.  High pressure will then build into the region for Friday
night with lows cooling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

At the beginning of the period, we`ll see an upper trough cross the
region on Saturday.  This feature will cut off across the deep south
and spawn a coastal storm just off the Carolinas early Sunday
morning.  Moisture will be rather scant, so we`re just expecting
some cloudy skies as this feature pushes through the region.  Highs
Saturday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 and overnight
lows will cool into the lower 30s by Sunday morning.  Clouds will be
on the increase by Sunday as the next wave approaches from the
northwest.  Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s region wide.

By Sunday night, the global models are in general agreement with a
strong upper trough dropping out of the Midwest and then closing off
across the Ohio Valley in the Monday through Tuesday night time
frame.  While the models agree with the trough closing off, there
remains considerable differences in how far south the low tracks and
cuts off before heading off to the east by early Wednesday.  The
Euro and Canadian runs are more north/northeast with their tracks,
keeping the best moisture and colder air to our north and east.
Meanwhile, the GFS solutions continues to be the most wound up,
stronger, and furthest south and southwest in the guidance envelope.

Using a blend of the Euro/GEM/GFS keeps the ongoing forecast rather
consistent though it does warrant an increase in precipitation
chances and cloud cover.  Precipitation is likely to break out
Sunday night across the region.  Some warm air advection on the
south side of the system will likely keep precipitation in a mixed
state (Rain/Snow) through much of the night as temperatures remain
around the freezing mark.  Temperatures will see a diurnal spike on
Monday with upper 30s but then temperatures should crash during the
evening hours and then remaining cold through Tuesday night.  Lows
Monday night will drop into the lower-mid 20s with highs on Tuesday
only warming into the mid-upper 20s.  Tuesday night lows will cool
into the teens.

With these temperatures forecasts in mind, predominant precipitation
type will be in the form of snow Monday night through Tuesday night.
QPF amounts are not overly impressive compared to a dynamic synoptic
system with a good moisture feed off the Gulf or the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, with a very cold temperature profile in place in the
troposphere, snow ratios will be in the 17-22:1 range, so with even
light QPF amounts, a couple of inches of snow will be possible by
the time the precipitation ends late Tuesday night.

The upper low/trough axis is forecast to lift out on Wednesday which
will bring an end to the precipitation along with clearing skies.
Temperatures will be dependent on snowcover.  Since we believe that
we`ll have some on the ground, we have trimmed back temperatures
slightly with highs in the mid-upper 20s for Wednesday.  Very cold
conditions are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning if we
have sufficient clearing.  Raw model data supports lows in the lower
teens, but single digit lows would be more likely if we have
snowpack and clear skies.  Highs Thursday will modify slightly with
low-mid 30s expected, though these might still be too generous if
a light snowpack remains.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1205 AM EST Fri Feb 5 2016

VFR conditions prevail at SDF, LEX, and BWG TAF sites at this time,
and this will continue through the forecast period. Thy sky is clear
now, and only some high-level cirrus clouds are expected on Friday.
Winds overnight will be light and variable, becoming south to
southwest on Friday at 5-10 mph.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......TWF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 050233
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
933 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 930 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Clouds have pretty much exited the Bluegrass region, and the rest of
the night looks clear. Current forecast is on track, but a quick
update coming to clean up evening wording in the east.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Large area of low clouds will continue to slowly move out of the
region this afternoon and this evening.  The clearing line is just
west of I-65 now with mostly sunny skies noted across the western
third of KY.  Temperatures remained in the lower 30s in the cloud
cover, but have rebounded slightly across far western KY in the
sunshine.  Given the slower clearing trend, we`re likely to see our
highs for the day in the next hour or so.  We`ll probably see a few
ice pellets or snow flurries across the north-central and east-
central sections as the clouds clear out.  Temperatures this evening
will drop into the upper 20s.  With expected clearing overnight and
light winds, we`ll see overnight minimum temps drop into the lower
20s out across the Bluegrass region with 24-27 degrees elsewhere
across the district.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday as a weak front pushes
through the region.  However, moisture will be very lacking and only
a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s in
the west.  High pressure will then build into the region for Friday
night with lows cooling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

At the beginning of the period, we`ll see an upper trough cross the
region on Saturday.  This feature will cut off across the deep south
and spawn a coastal storm just off the Carolinas early Sunday
morning.  Moisture will be rather scant, so we`re just expecting
some cloudy skies as this feature pushes through the region.  Highs
Saturday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 and overnight
lows will cool into the lower 30s by Sunday morning.  Clouds will be
on the increase by Sunday as the next wave approaches from the
northwest.  Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s region wide.

By Sunday night, the global models are in general agreement with a
strong upper trough dropping out of the Midwest and then closing off
across the Ohio Valley in the Monday through Tuesday night time
frame.  While the models agree with the trough closing off, there
remains considerable differences in how far south the low tracks and
cuts off before heading off to the east by early Wednesday.  The
Euro and Canadian runs are more north/northeast with their tracks,
keeping the best moisture and colder air to our north and east.
Meanwhile, the GFS solutions continues to be the most wound up,
stronger, and furthest south and southwest in the guidance envelope.

Using a blend of the Euro/GEM/GFS keeps the ongoing forecast rather
consistent though it does warrant an increase in precipitation
chances and cloud cover.  Precipitation is likely to break out
Sunday night across the region.  Some warm air advection on the
south side of the system will likely keep precipitation in a mixed
state (Rain/Snow) through much of the night as temperatures remain
around the freezing mark.  Temperatures will see a diurnal spike on
Monday with upper 30s but then temperatures should crash during the
evening hours and then remaining cold through Tuesday night.  Lows
Monday night will drop into the lower-mid 20s with highs on Tuesday
only warming into the mid-upper 20s.  Tuesday night lows will cool
into the teens.

With these temperatures forecasts in mind, predominant precipitation
type will be in the form of snow Monday night through Tuesday night.
QPF amounts are not overly impressive compared to a dynamic synoptic
system with a good moisture feed off the Gulf or the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, with a very cold temperature profile in place in the
troposphere, snow ratios will be in the 17-22:1 range, so with even
light QPF amounts, a couple of inches of snow will be possible by
the time the precipitation ends late Tuesday night.

The upper low/trough axis is forecast to lift out on Wednesday which
will bring an end to the precipitation along with clearing skies.
Temperatures will be dependent on snowcover.  Since we believe that
we`ll have some on the ground, we have trimmed back temperatures
slightly with highs in the mid-upper 20s for Wednesday.  Very cold
conditions are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning if we
have sufficient clearing.  Raw model data supports lows in the lower
teens, but single digit lows would be more likely if we have
snowpack and clear skies.  Highs Thursday will modify slightly with
low-mid 30s expected, though these might still be too generous if
a light snowpack remains.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 550 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Only outstanding question is when the VFR strato-cu ceiling will
clear out of LEX. Based on current trends expect that to be an hour
or two after the valid TAF time. BWG and SDF have already cleared,
but will initialize with a light NW breeze, then go light/variable
by late evening as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Clear
skies will continue for the remainder of the period, with light SW
flow developing late Fri morning once the ridge axis pushes to our
east.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........RAS
Short Term.....MJ
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......RAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050019
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
719 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE OUTSIDE OF REFINING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
CURVES. CLOUDS ARE NOT STARTING TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY. THIS
CLEARING IS STILL MAKING DECENT PROGRESS TO THE EAST...SO WE
SHOULD EXPECT MOST AREAS TO CLEAR OUT BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY
AFTER.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE
CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER
VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HOLD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...NOTABLE CLEARING IS SEEN ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND WILL WORK ITS WAY EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL MEAN CLOUDS
DECREASING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH THE TAF
FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042248
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
548 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Large area of low clouds will continue to slowly move out of the
region this afternoon and this evening.  The clearing line is just
west of I-65 now with mostly sunny skies noted across the western
third of KY.  Temperatures remained in the lower 30s in the cloud
cover, but have rebounded slightly across far western KY in the
sunshine.  Given the slower clearing trend, we`re likely to see our
highs for the day in the next hour or so.  We`ll probably see a few
ice pellets or snow flurries across the north-central and east-
central sections as the clouds clear out.  Temperatures this evening
will drop into the upper 20s.  With expected clearing overnight and
light winds, we`ll see overnight minimum temps drop into the lower
20s out across the Bluegrass region with 24-27 degrees elsewhere
across the district.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday as a weak front pushes
through the region.  However, moisture will be very lacking and only
a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s in
the west.  High pressure will then build into the region for Friday
night with lows cooling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

At the beginning of the period, we`ll see an upper trough cross the
region on Saturday.  This feature will cut off across the deep south
and spawn a coastal storm just off the Carolinas early Sunday
morning.  Moisture will be rather scant, so we`re just expecting
some cloudy skies as this feature pushes through the region.  Highs
Saturday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 and overnight
lows will cool into the lower 30s by Sunday morning.  Clouds will be
on the increase by Sunday as the next wave approaches from the
northwest.  Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s region wide.

By Sunday night, the global models are in general agreement with a
strong upper trough dropping out of the Midwest and then closing off
across the Ohio Valley in the Monday through Tuesday night time
frame.  While the models agree with the trough closing off, there
remains considerable differences in how far south the low tracks and
cuts off before heading off to the east by early Wednesday.  The
Euro and Canadian runs are more north/northeast with their tracks,
keeping the best moisture and colder air to our north and east.
Meanwhile, the GFS solutions continues to be the most wound up,
stronger, and furthest south and southwest in the guidance envelope.

Using a blend of the Euro/GEM/GFS keeps the ongoing forecast rather
consistent though it does warrant an increase in precipitation
chances and cloud cover.  Precipitation is likely to break out
Sunday night across the region.  Some warm air advection on the
south side of the system will likely keep precipitation in a mixed
state (Rain/Snow) through much of the night as temperatures remain
around the freezing mark.  Temperatures will see a diurnal spike on
Monday with upper 30s but then temperatures should crash during the
evening hours and then remaining cold through Tuesday night.  Lows
Monday night will drop into the lower-mid 20s with highs on Tuesday
only warming into the mid-upper 20s.  Tuesday night lows will cool
into the teens.

With these temperatures forecasts in mind, predominant precipitation
type will be in the form of snow Monday night through Tuesday night.
QPF amounts are not overly impressive compared to a dynamic synoptic
system with a good moisture feed off the Gulf or the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, with a very cold temperature profile in place in the
troposphere, snow ratios will be in the 17-22:1 range, so with even
light QPF amounts, a couple of inches of snow will be possible by
the time the precipitation ends late Tuesday night.

The upper low/trough axis is forecast to lift out on Wednesday which
will bring an end to the precipitation along with clearing skies.
Temperatures will be dependent on snowcover.  Since we believe that
we`ll have some on the ground, we have trimmed back temperatures
slightly with highs in the mid-upper 20s for Wednesday.  Very cold
conditions are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning if we
have sufficient clearing.  Raw model data supports lows in the lower
teens, but single digit lows would be more likely if we have
snowpack and clear skies.  Highs Thursday will modify slightly with
low-mid 30s expected, though these might still be too generous if
a light snowpack remains.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 550 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Only outstanding question is when the VFR strato-cu ceiling will
clear out of LEX. Based on current trends expect that to be an hour
or two after the valid TAF time. BWG and SDF have already cleared,
but will initialize with a light NW breeze, then go light/variable
by late evening as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Clear
skies will continue for the remainder of the period, with light SW
flow developing late Fri morning once the ridge axis pushes to our
east.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042248
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
548 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Large area of low clouds will continue to slowly move out of the
region this afternoon and this evening.  The clearing line is just
west of I-65 now with mostly sunny skies noted across the western
third of KY.  Temperatures remained in the lower 30s in the cloud
cover, but have rebounded slightly across far western KY in the
sunshine.  Given the slower clearing trend, we`re likely to see our
highs for the day in the next hour or so.  We`ll probably see a few
ice pellets or snow flurries across the north-central and east-
central sections as the clouds clear out.  Temperatures this evening
will drop into the upper 20s.  With expected clearing overnight and
light winds, we`ll see overnight minimum temps drop into the lower
20s out across the Bluegrass region with 24-27 degrees elsewhere
across the district.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday as a weak front pushes
through the region.  However, moisture will be very lacking and only
a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s in
the west.  High pressure will then build into the region for Friday
night with lows cooling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

At the beginning of the period, we`ll see an upper trough cross the
region on Saturday.  This feature will cut off across the deep south
and spawn a coastal storm just off the Carolinas early Sunday
morning.  Moisture will be rather scant, so we`re just expecting
some cloudy skies as this feature pushes through the region.  Highs
Saturday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 and overnight
lows will cool into the lower 30s by Sunday morning.  Clouds will be
on the increase by Sunday as the next wave approaches from the
northwest.  Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s region wide.

By Sunday night, the global models are in general agreement with a
strong upper trough dropping out of the Midwest and then closing off
across the Ohio Valley in the Monday through Tuesday night time
frame.  While the models agree with the trough closing off, there
remains considerable differences in how far south the low tracks and
cuts off before heading off to the east by early Wednesday.  The
Euro and Canadian runs are more north/northeast with their tracks,
keeping the best moisture and colder air to our north and east.
Meanwhile, the GFS solutions continues to be the most wound up,
stronger, and furthest south and southwest in the guidance envelope.

Using a blend of the Euro/GEM/GFS keeps the ongoing forecast rather
consistent though it does warrant an increase in precipitation
chances and cloud cover.  Precipitation is likely to break out
Sunday night across the region.  Some warm air advection on the
south side of the system will likely keep precipitation in a mixed
state (Rain/Snow) through much of the night as temperatures remain
around the freezing mark.  Temperatures will see a diurnal spike on
Monday with upper 30s but then temperatures should crash during the
evening hours and then remaining cold through Tuesday night.  Lows
Monday night will drop into the lower-mid 20s with highs on Tuesday
only warming into the mid-upper 20s.  Tuesday night lows will cool
into the teens.

With these temperatures forecasts in mind, predominant precipitation
type will be in the form of snow Monday night through Tuesday night.
QPF amounts are not overly impressive compared to a dynamic synoptic
system with a good moisture feed off the Gulf or the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, with a very cold temperature profile in place in the
troposphere, snow ratios will be in the 17-22:1 range, so with even
light QPF amounts, a couple of inches of snow will be possible by
the time the precipitation ends late Tuesday night.

The upper low/trough axis is forecast to lift out on Wednesday which
will bring an end to the precipitation along with clearing skies.
Temperatures will be dependent on snowcover.  Since we believe that
we`ll have some on the ground, we have trimmed back temperatures
slightly with highs in the mid-upper 20s for Wednesday.  Very cold
conditions are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning if we
have sufficient clearing.  Raw model data supports lows in the lower
teens, but single digit lows would be more likely if we have
snowpack and clear skies.  Highs Thursday will modify slightly with
low-mid 30s expected, though these might still be too generous if
a light snowpack remains.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 550 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Only outstanding question is when the VFR strato-cu ceiling will
clear out of LEX. Based on current trends expect that to be an hour
or two after the valid TAF time. BWG and SDF have already cleared,
but will initialize with a light NW breeze, then go light/variable
by late evening as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Clear
skies will continue for the remainder of the period, with light SW
flow developing late Fri morning once the ridge axis pushes to our
east.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 042248
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
548 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Large area of low clouds will continue to slowly move out of the
region this afternoon and this evening.  The clearing line is just
west of I-65 now with mostly sunny skies noted across the western
third of KY.  Temperatures remained in the lower 30s in the cloud
cover, but have rebounded slightly across far western KY in the
sunshine.  Given the slower clearing trend, we`re likely to see our
highs for the day in the next hour or so.  We`ll probably see a few
ice pellets or snow flurries across the north-central and east-
central sections as the clouds clear out.  Temperatures this evening
will drop into the upper 20s.  With expected clearing overnight and
light winds, we`ll see overnight minimum temps drop into the lower
20s out across the Bluegrass region with 24-27 degrees elsewhere
across the district.

Dry conditions are expected for Friday as a weak front pushes
through the region.  However, moisture will be very lacking and only
a slight increase in cloud cover is expected.  High temperatures
will range from the lower-mid 40s in the east with mid-upper 40s in
the west.  High pressure will then build into the region for Friday
night with lows cooling into the upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 322 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

At the beginning of the period, we`ll see an upper trough cross the
region on Saturday.  This feature will cut off across the deep south
and spawn a coastal storm just off the Carolinas early Sunday
morning.  Moisture will be rather scant, so we`re just expecting
some cloudy skies as this feature pushes through the region.  Highs
Saturday will warm into the upper 40s to around 50 and overnight
lows will cool into the lower 30s by Sunday morning.  Clouds will be
on the increase by Sunday as the next wave approaches from the
northwest.  Highs Sunday look to top out in the upper 40s to the
lower 50s region wide.

By Sunday night, the global models are in general agreement with a
strong upper trough dropping out of the Midwest and then closing off
across the Ohio Valley in the Monday through Tuesday night time
frame.  While the models agree with the trough closing off, there
remains considerable differences in how far south the low tracks and
cuts off before heading off to the east by early Wednesday.  The
Euro and Canadian runs are more north/northeast with their tracks,
keeping the best moisture and colder air to our north and east.
Meanwhile, the GFS solutions continues to be the most wound up,
stronger, and furthest south and southwest in the guidance envelope.

Using a blend of the Euro/GEM/GFS keeps the ongoing forecast rather
consistent though it does warrant an increase in precipitation
chances and cloud cover.  Precipitation is likely to break out
Sunday night across the region.  Some warm air advection on the
south side of the system will likely keep precipitation in a mixed
state (Rain/Snow) through much of the night as temperatures remain
around the freezing mark.  Temperatures will see a diurnal spike on
Monday with upper 30s but then temperatures should crash during the
evening hours and then remaining cold through Tuesday night.  Lows
Monday night will drop into the lower-mid 20s with highs on Tuesday
only warming into the mid-upper 20s.  Tuesday night lows will cool
into the teens.

With these temperatures forecasts in mind, predominant precipitation
type will be in the form of snow Monday night through Tuesday night.
QPF amounts are not overly impressive compared to a dynamic synoptic
system with a good moisture feed off the Gulf or the Atlantic.
Nonetheless, with a very cold temperature profile in place in the
troposphere, snow ratios will be in the 17-22:1 range, so with even
light QPF amounts, a couple of inches of snow will be possible by
the time the precipitation ends late Tuesday night.

The upper low/trough axis is forecast to lift out on Wednesday which
will bring an end to the precipitation along with clearing skies.
Temperatures will be dependent on snowcover.  Since we believe that
we`ll have some on the ground, we have trimmed back temperatures
slightly with highs in the mid-upper 20s for Wednesday.  Very cold
conditions are likely Wednesday night and Thursday morning if we
have sufficient clearing.  Raw model data supports lows in the lower
teens, but single digit lows would be more likely if we have
snowpack and clear skies.  Highs Thursday will modify slightly with
low-mid 30s expected, though these might still be too generous if
a light snowpack remains.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 550 PM EST Thu Feb 4 2016

Only outstanding question is when the VFR strato-cu ceiling will
clear out of LEX. Based on current trends expect that to be an hour
or two after the valid TAF time. BWG and SDF have already cleared,
but will initialize with a light NW breeze, then go light/variable
by late evening as high pressure settles over the Ohio Valley. Clear
skies will continue for the remainder of the period, with light SW
flow developing late Fri morning once the ridge axis pushes to our
east.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........RAS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 042223
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
423 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A wavy mid/upper pattern is expected to continue across the CONUS
in the near term. A trof axis will move eastward away from the PAH
forecast area today, and will be followed by ridging and high
pressure at the surface for Friday. Saturday will bring yet
another trof axis through our region. Lack of moist return flow
should preclude any measurable pcpn with these systems in the
short term.

Skies will be clear tonight with light and variable winds, thus
temps should drop well into the 20s everywhere, unlike last night
when clouds hung over the eastern third of the region and held
temps up there. As the air mass slowly modifies, a gradual
warming trend can be expected starting Friday, lasting through the
weekend. Highs should exceed 50 at many locations by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Fairly high confidence in the major trends through the extended
portion of the forecast. A warm day Sunday, then a developing upper-
level trough will bring in much cooler air for Monday through the
end of the forecast. Confidence in the timing and location of light
precipitation Sunday night through Tuesday is quite a bit lower, but
any precipitation should definitely be light after Sunday evening.

Winds will be increasing from the southwest Sunday as the lead
mid/upper-level trough dives southeast from the upper midwest.
Clouds will be on the increase as well, but temperatures should
climb into the 50s throughout the region.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement in generating some modest
QPF mainly over west Kentucky Sunday evening, and then pushing it
east of the area overnight into early Monday. With the cold
advection not really going yet in the evening, most of this
precipitation should fall as rain. The entire column will be cooling
quickly with the arrival of the first upper low/trough by 12Z
Monday, so if precipitation lingers overnight, it could change over
to snow.

The models are not in very good agreement in timing the best surge
of the cold air across the region, but the consensus is for high
temperatures on Monday in the lower 40s over much of the area. This
may be a bit optimistic, and if so, instead of a mix of rain and
snow, any precipitation Monday may very well fall as light snow.
With the good cooling off the surface, melting will only occur in
the boundary layer, if it is warm/deep enough to get the job done.

Any QPF Monday night and Tuesday should fall as snow throughout the
area. Once again any QPF beyond early Monday should be light, so
accumulations will be hard to find. We will continue to monitor, but
at this time it does not look like an impactful precipitation event.
However, the cold air will really settle in Tuesday night and
Wednesday, when lows will be in the teens and wind chills will
drop into the single digits above zero throughout the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Time/height cross sections show some high clouds tomorrow.
Satellite suggests some mid cloud could creep in too, mainly
north. Winds will be nil tonight, then average 5-10 kts tmrw from
the west, diminishing and becoming variable late in the day.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042223
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
423 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A wavy mid/upper pattern is expected to continue across the CONUS
in the near term. A trof axis will move eastward away from the PAH
forecast area today, and will be followed by ridging and high
pressure at the surface for Friday. Saturday will bring yet
another trof axis through our region. Lack of moist return flow
should preclude any measurable pcpn with these systems in the
short term.

Skies will be clear tonight with light and variable winds, thus
temps should drop well into the 20s everywhere, unlike last night
when clouds hung over the eastern third of the region and held
temps up there. As the air mass slowly modifies, a gradual
warming trend can be expected starting Friday, lasting through the
weekend. Highs should exceed 50 at many locations by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Fairly high confidence in the major trends through the extended
portion of the forecast. A warm day Sunday, then a developing upper-
level trough will bring in much cooler air for Monday through the
end of the forecast. Confidence in the timing and location of light
precipitation Sunday night through Tuesday is quite a bit lower, but
any precipitation should definitely be light after Sunday evening.

Winds will be increasing from the southwest Sunday as the lead
mid/upper-level trough dives southeast from the upper midwest.
Clouds will be on the increase as well, but temperatures should
climb into the 50s throughout the region.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement in generating some modest
QPF mainly over west Kentucky Sunday evening, and then pushing it
east of the area overnight into early Monday. With the cold
advection not really going yet in the evening, most of this
precipitation should fall as rain. The entire column will be cooling
quickly with the arrival of the first upper low/trough by 12Z
Monday, so if precipitation lingers overnight, it could change over
to snow.

The models are not in very good agreement in timing the best surge
of the cold air across the region, but the consensus is for high
temperatures on Monday in the lower 40s over much of the area. This
may be a bit optimistic, and if so, instead of a mix of rain and
snow, any precipitation Monday may very well fall as light snow.
With the good cooling off the surface, melting will only occur in
the boundary layer, if it is warm/deep enough to get the job done.

Any QPF Monday night and Tuesday should fall as snow throughout the
area. Once again any QPF beyond early Monday should be light, so
accumulations will be hard to find. We will continue to monitor, but
at this time it does not look like an impactful precipitation event.
However, the cold air will really settle in Tuesday night and
Wednesday, when lows will be in the teens and wind chills will
drop into the single digits above zero throughout the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Time/height cross sections show some high clouds tomorrow.
Satellite suggests some mid cloud could creep in too, mainly
north. Winds will be nil tonight, then average 5-10 kts tmrw from
the west, diminishing and becoming variable late in the day.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 042223
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
423 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A wavy mid/upper pattern is expected to continue across the CONUS
in the near term. A trof axis will move eastward away from the PAH
forecast area today, and will be followed by ridging and high
pressure at the surface for Friday. Saturday will bring yet
another trof axis through our region. Lack of moist return flow
should preclude any measurable pcpn with these systems in the
short term.

Skies will be clear tonight with light and variable winds, thus
temps should drop well into the 20s everywhere, unlike last night
when clouds hung over the eastern third of the region and held
temps up there. As the air mass slowly modifies, a gradual
warming trend can be expected starting Friday, lasting through the
weekend. Highs should exceed 50 at many locations by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Fairly high confidence in the major trends through the extended
portion of the forecast. A warm day Sunday, then a developing upper-
level trough will bring in much cooler air for Monday through the
end of the forecast. Confidence in the timing and location of light
precipitation Sunday night through Tuesday is quite a bit lower, but
any precipitation should definitely be light after Sunday evening.

Winds will be increasing from the southwest Sunday as the lead
mid/upper-level trough dives southeast from the upper midwest.
Clouds will be on the increase as well, but temperatures should
climb into the 50s throughout the region.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement in generating some modest
QPF mainly over west Kentucky Sunday evening, and then pushing it
east of the area overnight into early Monday. With the cold
advection not really going yet in the evening, most of this
precipitation should fall as rain. The entire column will be cooling
quickly with the arrival of the first upper low/trough by 12Z
Monday, so if precipitation lingers overnight, it could change over
to snow.

The models are not in very good agreement in timing the best surge
of the cold air across the region, but the consensus is for high
temperatures on Monday in the lower 40s over much of the area. This
may be a bit optimistic, and if so, instead of a mix of rain and
snow, any precipitation Monday may very well fall as light snow.
With the good cooling off the surface, melting will only occur in
the boundary layer, if it is warm/deep enough to get the job done.

Any QPF Monday night and Tuesday should fall as snow throughout the
area. Once again any QPF beyond early Monday should be light, so
accumulations will be hard to find. We will continue to monitor, but
at this time it does not look like an impactful precipitation event.
However, the cold air will really settle in Tuesday night and
Wednesday, when lows will be in the teens and wind chills will
drop into the single digits above zero throughout the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 420 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Time/height cross sections show some high clouds tomorrow.
Satellite suggests some mid cloud could creep in too, mainly
north. Winds will be nil tonight, then average 5-10 kts tmrw from
the west, diminishing and becoming variable late in the day.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KJKL 042221
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 521 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

RADAR RETURNS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH AND WITH A SUBTLE
TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE
AERIAL COVERAGE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING. STILL LOOKS LIKE THE
BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS WILL MOVE ON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BUT UNTIL THE
CLEARING GETS HERE...THE THREAT OF A FEW FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE.
WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT LATE...WE SHOULD SEE A CHILLY NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS INTO THE TEENS. MAY HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE COLDER
VALLEYS A BIT LATER ON AS A FEW PLACES COULD REACH INTO THE TEENS.
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO INCLUDE FLURRIES AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN
CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM/JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 042059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN
CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM/JMW



000
FXUS63 KJKL 042059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN
CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM/JMW




000
FXUS63 KJKL 042059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN
CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM/JMW




000
FXUS63 KPAH 042054
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

A wavy mid/upper pattern is expected to continue across the CONUS
in the near term. A trof axis will move eastward away from the PAH
forecast area today, and will be followed by ridging and high
pressure at the surface for Friday. Saturday will bring yet
another trof axis through our region. Lack of moist return flow
should preclude any measurable pcpn with these systems in the
short term.

Skies will be clear tonight with light and variable winds, thus
temps should drop well into the 20s everywhere, unlike last night
when clouds hung over the eastern third of the region and held
temps up there. As the air mass slowly modifies, a gradual
warming trend can be expected starting Friday, lasting through the
weekend. Highs should exceed 50 at many locations by Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Fairly high confidence in the major trends through the extended
portion of the forecast. A warm day Sunday, then a developing upper-
level trough will bring in much cooler air for Monday through the
end of the forecast. Confidence in the timing and location of light
precipitation Sunday night through Tuesday is quite a bit lower, but
any precipitation should definitely be light after Sunday evening.

Winds will be increasing from the southwest Sunday as the lead
mid/upper-level trough dives southeast from the upper midwest.
Clouds will be on the increase as well, but temperatures should
climb into the 50s throughout the region.

The 12Z models are in reasonable agreement in generating some modest
QPF mainly over west Kentucky Sunday evening, and then pushing it
east of the area overnight into early Monday. With the cold
advection not really going yet in the evening, most of this
precipitation should fall as rain. The entire column will be cooling
quickly with the arrival of the first upper low/trough by 12Z
Monday, so if precipitation lingers overnight, it could change over
to snow.

The models are not in very good agreement in timing the best surge
of the cold air across the region, but the consensus is for high
temperatures on Monday in the lower 40s over much of the area. This
may be a bit optimistic, and if so, instead of a mix of rain and
snow, any precipitation Monday may very well fall as light snow.
With the good cooling off the surface, melting will only occur in
the boundary layer, if it is warm/deep enough to get the job done.

Any QPF Monday night and Tuesday should fall as snow throughout the
area. Once again any QPF beyond early Monday should be light, so
accumulations will be hard to find. We will continue to monitor, but
at this time it does not look like an impactful precipitation event.
However, the cold air will really settle in Tuesday night and
Wednesday, when lows will be in the teens and wind chills will
drop into the single digits above zero throughout the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 254 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

Northwesterly winds up to about 10 kts through the rest of the day
will become light and variable tonight, but with primarily a
south-southeasterly direction. After daybreak Friday, winds are
expected to veer more westerly and pick up a bit again.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...DB




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