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000
FXUS63 KJKL 062350
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. TONIGHT DOES NOT
LOOK AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062350
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. TONIGHT DOES NOT
LOOK AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 062350
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. TONIGHT DOES NOT
LOOK AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062350
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT. TONIGHT DOES NOT
LOOK AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT WITH TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 062325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 062325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062325
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH THIS
EVENING...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CONTINUED DRY AND
VFR CONDITIONS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KPAH 062320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS, PEAKING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 062320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS, PEAKING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 062320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS, PEAKING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 062320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS, PEAKING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 062320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS, PEAKING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 062320
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 520 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS, PEAKING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KLMK 062311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Mostly clear skies anticipated for the entire TAF period. High
pressure will move east over the southern Appalachians, allowing
light southwest winds at or below 5kt for the overnight period.

Southwest winds will increase to around 6 to 10kt for Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 062311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Mostly clear skies anticipated for the entire TAF period. High
pressure will move east over the southern Appalachians, allowing
light southwest winds at or below 5kt for the overnight period.

Southwest winds will increase to around 6 to 10kt for Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 062311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Mostly clear skies anticipated for the entire TAF period. High
pressure will move east over the southern Appalachians, allowing
light southwest winds at or below 5kt for the overnight period.

Southwest winds will increase to around 6 to 10kt for Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 062311
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
611 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 600 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Mostly clear skies anticipated for the entire TAF period. High
pressure will move east over the southern Appalachians, allowing
light southwest winds at or below 5kt for the overnight period.

Southwest winds will increase to around 6 to 10kt for Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 062101
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 062101
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 062101
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 062101
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP OUR REGION DRY WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. MODELS SHOW THE HIGH MOVING EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTHWARD TO GIVE OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE SNOW COVER, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SATURDAY SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S. ON SUNDAY,
EXPECTING CONTINUED SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, OR JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, SO
ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD JUST BE RAIN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WE ANTICIPATE A TRANSITIONAL MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN NEXT
WEEK. A SLOW MOVING TROF FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BECOME SPLIT FROM THE MAIN BRANCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF STATES BY MID WEEK. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWFA. A MID WEEK LULL IS FORECAST...THEN THE
MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE SUITES SUGGEST MOISTURE MAY SURGE TOWARD
THE AREA BY FRIDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
SOUTHERN U.S. UPPER TROF. STILL LOOKING AT MILDER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KJKL 062012
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ON CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY GIVEN A GLANCING BLOW OF SOME CLOUDS SATURDAY
NIGHT...BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT...WITH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS INTO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. A NICE WARMUP
WITH ANOTHER DAY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50. INCREASING CLOUDS
MAY KEEP LOWS A BIT HIGHER SATURDAY NIGHT AROUND 30.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND FRIDAY/SATURDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BREAK
IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS
ALONG WITH A STRONGER SFC SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. HOW THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT WILL BE INTRIGUING
CONSIDERING THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THOUGH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
PRECIP...WHETHER IT BE ALL RAIN (12Z ECMWF) OR A RAIN/WINTRY MIX
(12Z GFS)...LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 061959
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061959
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061959
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061959
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 100 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

We have some very welcome quiet weather in the short term forecast
thanks to general high pressure and a lack of deep moisture in
the region. There could be some patchy valley fog again tomorrow
morning, especially in the southeast. A small storm system will
cross the Great Lakes on Saturday but precipitation associated with
it should stay to our north.

Temperatures tonight are hard to figure since the high will be
moving off to the southeast over the course of the night.  As a
result, low temperatures will likely occur early, and won`t be
nearly as cold as what we saw last night.  Will aim for teens most
locations, and around 20 in central Louisville.

We should see a good warm-up tomorrow with SSW breezes around 10
mph.  Most folks will see afternoon readings in the 40s, with the
Lake Cumberland area possibly hitting 50. Lows Saturday night will
be warmer as well, likely in the middle and upper 20s.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 258 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The long term will begin with quasi-zonal flow aloft. This will
transition to southwesterly by mid week next week. At the surface,
sprawling high pressure will be in place Sunday. This will lead to a
dry day with partly cloudy skies. Temperatures Sunday will climb
into the 40s with temps topping out close to 50 near the KY/TN
border.

Some uncertainty remains in the Monday through Tuesday time frame
regarding the chance for rain from a southern stream system. Some
models keep precipitation confined to the eastern half of the
forecast area Monday night through Tuesday, while others would mean
at least light rain for much of the area. Will go with a blend of
guidance for now. At any rate, precip amounts from this system look
to fairly light at this time, so it does not look like it would
worsen ongoing flooding.

Wednesday through Thursday looks to remain dry with high pressure
building back in. The next system would them begin to move in from
the south Thursday night. This system is far out in the forecast
time frame but bears watching since right now it looks to fairly
slow moving and could potentially bring quite a bit of rain to the
area. This combined with saturated grounds from the recent rains and
snowmelt that is expected this week could bring additional flooding
problems. However, given this system is a week out, things could
change for the better in the coming forecasts.

Temperatures will warm into mid week with highs by Wednesday and
Thursday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows will range from the 30s
to lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 061835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH SUNSHINE IN
FULL FORCE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE
IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH SUNSHINE IN
FULL FORCE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE
IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH SUNSHINE IN
FULL FORCE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE
IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WELL INTO THE 20S AREAWIDE WITH SUNSHINE IN
FULL FORCE. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE
IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 061648
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSEE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1048 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. SSW WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KLMK 061641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 061641
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1141 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

High pressure will keep our weather quiet during this TAF period.  A
weak storm system will cross the Great Lakes but precipitation
associated with it should remain to our north.

There will be some low level moisture in the area tonight, but at
this time it appears that clouds, if any, should remain scattered.

Variable winds today under the high will concentrate from the SSW
tonight into tomorrow as the high moves away.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 061520
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

UPDATED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES A TAD AND ALSO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF
WIND CHILLS AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT PRESENTLY. WITH FULL SUNSHINE
IN EFFECT NOW...LET THE CURRENT SPS EXPIRE FOR SLICK ROADS...SOME
SECONDARY ROADS MAY STAY SLICK...BUT WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT
THROUGH THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEEING A BIT
OF FZFG AT SME BUT THAT SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061240
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEEING A BIT
OF FZFG AT SME BUT THAT SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061240
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEEING A BIT
OF FZFG AT SME BUT THAT SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061240
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VERY COLD AND FROSTY START TO THE DAY. FORECAST IS ON TRACK. ONLY
HAD TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. MOST RIVERS HAVE OR
ARE NEARING CREST...OTHERS ARE DROPPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEEING A BIT
OF FZFG AT SME BUT THAT SHOULD BURN OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER
SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY



000
FXUS63 KLMK 061128
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
628 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds. Have some light vsby
reductions this hour, and MVFR conditions are possible through mid
morning. Models are hinting at perhaps some MVFR clouds around
daybreak Saturday, at least for SDF/LEX, so have put in some clouds
for that period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 061039
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061039
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061039
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061039
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061039
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 061039
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
539 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 530 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

THE EASTERN CONUS/NOAM TROUGH SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD BY THE START
OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A RIDGE WILL LINGER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS. AT THAT POINT...A CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN US WILL HAVE SOME DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH IT...BUT THESE SHOULD BE GENERALLY TOO FAR NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN PERIODIC INCREASES IN
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO OPEN UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...AND RETURN MOISTURE IS PROJECTED TO
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY AND THEN INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. AS A NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH...AND A SOME LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY ON MONDAY. THE RESULT
SHOULD MAINLY BE JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

DISTURBANCES SHOULD CONTINUE TO EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THIS TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE HEIGHTS
RISE OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO CHANCES FOR RAIN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS IT STANDS NOW...THU LOOKS TO BE A
BREAK IN BETWEEN RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE IN
THE NEW WEEK...JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD APPEAR TO BE
INCREASING. DURING THAT TIME DEEPER MOISTURE MAY RETURN INTO THE
MS AND OH VALLEY REGION AND THERE COULD ALSO BE A STRONGER SFC
SYSTEM AND HEAVIER RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAN THE EARLY OR MIDWEEK
SYSTEMS.

A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS
STILL EXPECTED...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME...IF AND WHEN PRECIP OCCURS DURING THE PERIOD...IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY



000
FXUS63 KJKL 061018
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AND INDICATE SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TODAY. BUT THIS FEATURE HAS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER...PRODUCING ONLY SOME ADDITIONAL MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS FOR THE AREA LATER TODAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF
OUR AREA TODAY AS WELL. WEAK RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
AND AN INCREASINGLY STRONG MARCH SUN WILL BATTLE WITH EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER FOR GREATEST INFLUENCE ON TEMPERATURES OVER THE COMING
DAYS. THE SNOW PACK WILL WIN OUT TODAY BUT A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW COMBINED WITH THE INCREASINGLY STRONGER MARCH SUN WILL BEGIN
TO EAT AWAY AT AREA SNOW COVER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY
THE RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT WILL GO STRAIGHT INTO AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS...ADDING TO ALREADY ELEVATED FLOWS AND EXTENDING ANY
GRADUAL DROPS IN STAGE LEVELS. SILVER LINING TO FORECAST WOULD
HAVE TO BE THE PROMISE OF RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER AND GRADUALLY
WARMING TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HORIZON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060909
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
409 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 060909
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
409 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Despite a practically non-existent pressure gradient across the
region, several sites 3-5 knots of wind through 2 AM. This wind has
kept us just mixed enough, at least so far, to prevent quick drops
in temperatures. The more sheltered locations, such as the
Cynthiana, Brandenburg, and Richmond mesonet sites, have gone calm
and consequently there temperatures have dropped to several degrees
below 0. We still have a window for temperatures to drop quickly,
and at 3 AM more of the sites are coming in calm, so still have
forecast lows down at or below zero for most sites.

Surface high pressure over us now will sink southeast of the area
tonight and Saturday. Winds will start to pick up out of the south
later this afternoon, bringing a little more moisture into the
region as well as warmer temperatures. Have lows tonight down into
the teens and possibly some single digits. Higher dewpoint air
moving into the region may cause some fog to form over the snowpack,
but not confident enough in this scenario to put more than patchy
fog into the forecast.  For Saturday southwesterly winds will
continue to bring in warmer air, with highs likely in the 40s for
many locations.

.LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
Issued at 400 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015...

The good news in the long term is warming temperatures. The bad news
is that will cause lots of melting, which will keep creeks and
rivers running high, and may cause water problems for low-water
crossings on rural roads.

Another fly in the ointment for the long term is yet another precip
maker coming into the southeast U.S. on the southern branch of the
jet Monday night and Tuesday. The northern extent of this one is
still being battled by the models, with the GEM bringing it north
farther than either the ECMWF or GFS, which has the southern-most
track.  For now will split the difference and go with the
middle-ground Euro, which brings a chance of showers to our southern
through eastern counties.  Unlike the past two rain events, through,
this one appears to be relatively light for us, with expected
rainfall less than 0.10" - at least for now.

With a 500 mb pattern that thinks it`s in the Groundhog Day movie,
another disturbance ejects out of the semi-permanent SW U.S. trof,
into the southeast U.S. by Friday, complete with abundant tropical
moisture.  While still far too early to place any faith on exactly
where this one will track, at least there does not appear to be any
cold air close enough to make us think we`re in Boston, as this one
should remain all rain.

Temperature-wise through the extended, we`ll warm from the 40s on
Sunday to the 50s by Tuesday, and even into the 60s for at least
southern Kentucky by Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be
in the 20s Sunday morning, then moderate 5 degrees upward each night
through the period. With warm air and dewpoints above 32 riding
north over the snowpack, this will likely result in some areas of
nighttime fog each night through the extended.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JBS
Aviation..........RJS





000
FXUS63 KPAH 060813
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY MIST/FZFG IN CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND OVER
SNOWPACK ENVIRON...BUT AIR IS VERY DRY SO IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS THAT IT MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES OCCUR...TEMPO
RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST
LIKELY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE VFR WILL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060813
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY MIST/FZFG IN CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND OVER
SNOWPACK ENVIRON...BUT AIR IS VERY DRY SO IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS THAT IT MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES OCCUR...TEMPO
RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST
LIKELY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE VFR WILL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060813
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY MIST/FZFG IN CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND OVER
SNOWPACK ENVIRON...BUT AIR IS VERY DRY SO IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS THAT IT MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES OCCUR...TEMPO
RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST
LIKELY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE VFR WILL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 060813
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
213 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

PATCHY MIST/FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN
LOW LYING AREAS...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR WIDESPREAD WITH NEARLY ALL
OBS SITES SHOWING GOOD VSBYS. IT`S OUT THERE THOUGH...WITH REDUCED
VSBYS IN BRIEF PATCHES...SO WE`LL MONITOR TO SEE IF IT EXPANDS
BEYOND ISOLATED/PATCHES AS WE DROP TO NEAR RECORD MINS THIS
MORNING.

WITH 1035-1040 MB SURFACE HIGH RIDGED ACROSS TN VALLEY
TODAY...SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND GOOD TEMP RISE TO NEAR
THE 32F MARK. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW/GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND THAT WILL COMMENCE AND CONTINUE THRU THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT`S LOWS LOOK LIKE TEENS MOSTLY AND WITH RETURN FLOW WE
SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
CLIMBING INTO/THRU THE 40S. THE HIGH SHIFTS FAR ENOUGH EAST SUNDAY
THAT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL INTRODUCE
MORE CLOUDS SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN A SMALL CHANCE
OF RAIN...BUT IT SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE ARKANSAS AND
TENNESSE BORDERS IN SOUTHERN MOST SEMO/WKY...AND MAINLY JUST SUN
PM/EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

RATHER QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
ACROSS THE USA. THE MOIST SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL LIKELY
BRING CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AS OUR REGION FROM TIME TO TIME. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOULD STAY MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE FIRST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS. A POSITIVE TILT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN. AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL PRODUCE A COOL EASTERLY WIND FLOW. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL
SEEM VERY MILD COMPARED TO THIS BITTER COLD. THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE KHOP AREA.

FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A RATHER BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY MAY UNDERCUT THE
RIDGE...SPREADING PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. A RATHER STEADY SNOWMELT WILL MOISTEN THE
COLD GROUND...WHICH COULD LEAD TO FOG OR STRATUS FORMATION IN THE
LIGHT WIND REGIME. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING
HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 204 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY MIST/FZFG IN CLEAR SKY/CALM WIND OVER
SNOWPACK ENVIRON...BUT AIR IS VERY DRY SO IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
OUTSIDE THE TERMINALS THAT IT MAY OCCUR. IF IT DOES OCCUR...TEMPO
RESTRICTION TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...MOST
LIKELY AT KCGI. OTHERWISE VFR WILL RULE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS ITS GRIP OVER THE TN VALLEY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060703
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND TO ADD A BIT OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BASED ON HOURLY
TRENDS. DEEP DROP IN LOWS IS NOT MATERIALIZING OVER AREAS WITH
LESS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN SOME LOWS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...RAY




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060703
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE OVERNIGHT LOWS SOME IN THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND TO ADD A BIT OF A RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT BASED ON HOURLY
TRENDS. DEEP DROP IN LOWS IS NOT MATERIALIZING OVER AREAS WITH
LESS SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY
OF SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN SOME LOWS IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY. NO
OTHER CHANGES ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH WE MAY SEE
SOME OCCASIONAL LOWER BASED SC AND VERY BRIEF CIGS AROUND 3K FT
FROM TIME TO TIME...MAINLY AT SYM AND SJS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...
VEERING MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...RAY



000
FXUS63 KLMK 060518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1218 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Glasgow County, and will drift
southwards over the next several hours. Skies should clear before
midnight at Louisville and Lexington.  Light winds, snow cover and
clearing skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with
subzero temperatures possible a most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 060518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1218 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Glasgow County, and will drift
southwards over the next several hours. Skies should clear before
midnight at Louisville and Lexington.  Light winds, snow cover and
clearing skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with
subzero temperatures possible a most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 060518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1218 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Glasgow County, and will drift
southwards over the next several hours. Skies should clear before
midnight at Louisville and Lexington.  Light winds, snow cover and
clearing skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with
subzero temperatures possible a most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060518
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1218 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Glasgow County, and will drift
southwards over the next several hours. Skies should clear before
midnight at Louisville and Lexington.  Light winds, snow cover and
clearing skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with
subzero temperatures possible a most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1215 AM EST Fri Mar 6 2015

Arctic high pressure settling into the Ohio Valley should bring
clear skies and light and variable winds.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060305
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LINGERING FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON WSR-88D RADAR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLURRIES GOING. GIVEN LIGHT
NATURE WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
TEMPS IN SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE FORECAST THUS FAR LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINOR UPDATE
NEEDED FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060305
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LINGERING FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON WSR-88D RADAR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLURRIES GOING. GIVEN LIGHT
NATURE WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
TEMPS IN SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE FORECAST THUS FAR LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINOR UPDATE
NEEDED FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060305
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LINGERING FLURRIES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP ON WSR-88D RADAR THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE SE TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
HAS PROVIDED JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLURRIES GOING. GIVEN LIGHT
NATURE WOULD EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS. HIGH
PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS IS
SETTING THE STAGE FOR COLD NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN KENTUCKY...AS
TEMPS IN SEVERAL SPOTS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE FORECAST THUS FAR LOOKS ON TRACK WITH MINOR UPDATE
NEEDED FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 060223
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Barren County, and will drift southwards
over the next several hours. Skies should clear before midnight at
Louisville and Lexington. Light winds, snow cover and clearing
skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with subzero
temperatures possible at most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060223
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Barren County, and will drift southwards
over the next several hours. Skies should clear before midnight at
Louisville and Lexington. Light winds, snow cover and clearing
skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with subzero
temperatures possible at most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060223
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Barren County, and will drift southwards
over the next several hours. Skies should clear before midnight at
Louisville and Lexington. Light winds, snow cover and clearing
skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with subzero
temperatures possible at most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060223
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Barren County, and will drift southwards
over the next several hours. Skies should clear before midnight at
Louisville and Lexington. Light winds, snow cover and clearing
skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with subzero
temperatures possible at most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 060223
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
923 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 915 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Broken strato-cu has been slow to erode. They extend from near
Louisville southwards through Barren County, and will drift southwards
over the next several hours. Skies should clear before midnight at
Louisville and Lexington. Light winds, snow cover and clearing
skies will promote very cold temperatures overnight with subzero
temperatures possible at most locations.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 060036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 060036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 060036
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
736 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 734 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM THAT
BROUGHT HEAVY SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIP TO THE REGION CONTINUING
TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING...MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS HAS
CONTINUED TO BRING CLEARING SKIES TO THE MUCH OF THE REGION AND
TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE TEENS THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT AS
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS COMBINE WITH SNOWPACK. WSR-88D RADAR
DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME RETURNS ACROSS THE FAR SE PORTIONS
OF EASTERN KY. THESE RETURNS ARE TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY FLURRIES
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXIT AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 052353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 052353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KJKL 052353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 052353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 052353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KJKL 052353
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
653 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MOST SITES ARE QUICKLY CLEARING OUT TO VFR THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SJS IS STILL SEEING
THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW AND WILL QUICKLY COME UP TO MVFR/VFR
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE SNOW MOVES EAST...OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KLMK 052313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 052313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 052313
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
613 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 610 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest bring clear skies
and light winds overnight. Some scattered flat cu will erode just
after sunset. Mostly clear skies will develop tonight and continue
Friday.
North winds will diminish to around 5 mph by midnight and become
calm by dawn.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........JSD






000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052301
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

CLEAR TONIGHT WITH NEAR CALM WINDS. WILL MONITOR FOR SHALLOW
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. BUT FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AND
GUIDANCE NOT SUGGESTING IT YET. BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON SSW WINDS UP TO 10 KTS WITH JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN




000
FXUS63 KPAH 052044
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE PAH FORECAST AREA AT 06Z FRIDAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT SNOW PACK ACROSS THE
REGION, RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE AT ITS PREMIUM. WENT WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM AROUND ZERO IN OUR FAR WEST
COUNTIES, TO -5 TO -10 IN OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WOULD
NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WE GOT EVEN A FEW (OR MORE) DEGREES
COLDER.

AFTER THE COLD START FRIDAY MORNING, SOUTH WINDS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN OUR EXTREME EASTERN
COUNTIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING SO
DRASTICALLY, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. THE WARM WINDS
OVER THE SNOW PACK COULD LEAD TO SOME FOG ISSUES, AND THIS WILL
BE SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT FOR TOMORROW`S PACKAGE. THE WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S, AND LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST U.S. SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW
FOR A LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERN...HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A QUASI ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
BRUSHING THE AREA. BETTER RAIN CHANCES SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF US.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...CN




000
FXUS63 KLMK 052019
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 052019
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 052019
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 052019
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
319 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday Night)...
Issued at 318 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Bitter Cold Tonight...

Once the high clouds in the east move out, and scattered flat
diurnal cu dissipate, arctic high pressure advancing from the mid
Mississippi Valley to the Tennessee Valley will provide us with
mostly clear/partly cloudy skies, light winds, and COLD temperatures
through the short term.

The main question is how cold to go tonight.  We have up to 25
inches of fresh snow pack.  The high moving in is of arctic origin
and will be located directly overhead right at the climatologically
coldest time of day early Friday morning.  Winds will be nearly
calm.  Skies should be mostly clear.  This high is progged to be
slightly stronger than the high that took some locations into the
-20s on February 20.  Low temperatures upstream this morning under
the high in the northern Plains were in the teens below zero, with
only a few inches of snow on the ground there.

Sky cover is the biggest source for bust potential tonight.  Model
data are showing low level moisture hanging around through the
night, but given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds
associated with it upstream, will lean towards less cloudiness in
the forecast.

Given all that, will go for negative teens tonight along the stripe
of deepest snow cover, which also happens to be located with where
the northeast-southwest elongated high is expected to line up at
dawn.  Can`t rule out a few -20s in the very coldest spots, such as
the Kentucky Mesonet stations in the counties of Ohio, Hardin,
Franklin, and Harrison.

Outside of the band of deepest snow, will still go with single digit
subzero readings.

We`ve never seen temperatures this cold in March before, so there is
no small amount of trepidation with this forecast.  It`s never easy
to forecast all-time monthly record lows.  If we get more clouds
than currently predicted, then lows have the potential of being much
warmer...possibly "just" around zero.

The high will be a slow mover on Friday, so we really won`t get into
any return flow during the day.  As a result, and given the very
cold start to the day (even if not as cold as currently forecast),
we went well below guidance for highs, especially in the snowiest
areas.  Will go for low to mid 20s.  We`ll have plenty of March sun,
which has done a good job of warming temperatures a few degrees this
afternoon even with the snow.

Friday night lows will probably be in the evening, then steadying
out overnight and possibly rising a bit in southern Indiana.  For
now will go with single digits over the deepest snow pack and teens
elsewhere.

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Warmer weather on the way!...

In contrast to weather conditions the past couple of days, the
extended forecast looks quite benign, with a significant warm up by
the middle of next week. Snow will melt, and spring will seem
closer.

This weekend, northwest flow aloft will prevail which will keep
temperatures below normal (normal highs for this time of year are in
the lower to mid 50s), especially given the ambient deep snow cover.
Nevertheless, there will be some moderation with afternoon readings
topping out mostly in the 30s Saturday (except lower 40s near the
Tennessee border), and in the 40s Sunday afternoon. This is a few
degrees below model statistical guidance.

A southern stream system over TX and the Gulf Coast states Sunday
and Sunday night could bring limited moisture northward into the
Tennessee Valley. Models generally keep precip just south of
Kentucky Sunday night and Monday so will go with a dry forecast in
most areas. Based on thermal trends, if any precip does fall, it
should be scattered light rain showers.

During the first half of next week, flow aloft relaxes and becomes
more westerly. This will create some downsloping flow and warmer air
across the Plains states. Some of that air should begin to work
eastward toward the Ohio Valley by mid next week. As a result, dry
weather is expected Monday thru Thursday in central Kentucky and
southern Indiana with a continued warming trend. High temps should
be in the 40s Monday (perhaps 50 near the Tennessee line), in the
50s Tuesday, mid 50s to lower 60s Wednesday, and probably in the 60s
Thursday if the forecast pattern holds.

The GFS and ECMWF show the next good chance for precip, in the form
of rain, to be Friday into next weekend (faster ECMWF) or next
weekend (slower GFS).

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........13
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 052004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL ALSO WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 052004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL ALSO WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 052004
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ONE LAST BAND OF SNOW IS JUST ABOUT TO SLIP SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA MAINLY SEEING JUST FLURRIES NOW. SKIES ARE
CLEARING...BUT JUST A TAD SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A COLD
NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER. WE HAVE THE
FRESH SNOW...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW ZERO
IN MOST PLACES WITH SOME AREAS UNDER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK IN THE
NORTH POSSIBLY REACHING THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. ANY SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATION COULD REACH THE TEENS BELOW ZERO AS WELL. WITH THE WET
AND SNOW COVERED ROADS...WILL CONTINUE AN SPS THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING ADDRESSING THE SLICK ROADS AND REFREEZING
TONIGHT.

SUNSHINE WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE ON FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE COLD
START...BEST WE CAN DO FOR HIGHS WILL BE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WE SHOULD RADIATE WELL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
AGAIN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. FORTUNATELY...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING RIVERS TO
RECEDE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WHERE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IS FORECASTING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOWPACK...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64 WHERE 10-
15 INCHES OF SNOW HAS FALLEN. SO HAVE KEPT THIS IN MIND AND ADJUSTED
TEMPS DOWN A BIT DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE BIGGER STORY FOR NEXT WEEK IS A BIG WARM UP FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE REGION...AND
ALONG WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WILL HELP TEMPS MODERATE BACK
TO SEASONABLE LEVELS. AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL ALLOW FOR A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF IT
SHOULD FALL AS RAIN. KEEP IN MIND THAT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT AS
TO WHEN AND HOW MUCH RAIN WE WILL RECEIVE SO HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS DURING THAT TIME FRAME.

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOWER 60S ON WEDNESDAY... A GRADUAL SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL ALSO WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051752
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Will let the remaining WSW`s expire on time.  Just some scattered
flurries expected from here on out.

Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051752
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Will let the remaining WSW`s expire on time.  Just some scattered
flurries expected from here on out.

Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051752
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Will let the remaining WSW`s expire on time.  Just some scattered
flurries expected from here on out.

Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051752
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1252 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Will let the remaining WSW`s expire on time.  Just some scattered
flurries expected from here on out.

Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13






000
FXUS63 KJKL 051746
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

SNOW HAS EXPANDED A BIT AS IT HAS PUSHED ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FOR 3 MORE
HOURS (UNTIL 4 PM)...MAINLY FOR SOUTEAST KENTUCKY...WHERE
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE WINDS MAY HELP HOLD THE SNOW IN A BIT LONGER.
THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ELSEWHERE. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH EXTENDING THE WARNING...WILL ALSO ADJUST POPS AND
WEATHER ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SNOW WILL ALSO WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...LINGERING THE LONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP VFR CONDITIONS FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
KYZ086>088-107-109-110-112>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 051733
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051733
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051733
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051733
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1233 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Arctic high pressure moving in from the northwest will continue to
eat away at the cloudiness across the region this afternoon. Some
flat cu can be expected, and may briefly form an MVFR ceiling before
lifting to low-end VFR.

Models show low level moisture lingering through the night, but
given the strength of the high and the lack of clouds upstream, will
refrain from any low ceilings. Will include a scattered layer though.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......13





000
FXUS63 KPAH 051730
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 051730
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

STRATO-CU DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR NOT SEEING
MUCH ON SATELLITE. SOME NOTED CLOSE TO KSTL AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST.
OTHERWISE NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT SEEING FOG IN THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN A
LITTLE SNOW MELT TODAY AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL MONITOR.
IF IT HAPPENED IT WOULD PROBABLY BE SHALLOW.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KLMK 051409
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051409
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 909 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Measurable snow is expected to taper to flurries between 15Z and 18Z
as dry air continues to invade from the northwest.  Will cancel the
WSW over southern IN and Trimble County at this time, where just
flurries are falling.

Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands have a steady eastward progression on radar,
following the moisture plume and forcing aloft as they shift east.
Latest high report is 19" at Falls of Rough in Breckinridge County.
Have updated products for this latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>031-033>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
     082.

IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........13/RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 051250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051250
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051209
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051209
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051126
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands are the precip in general now has a steady
eastward progression on radar, following the moisture plume and
forcing aloft as they shift east. Latest high report is 19" at Falls
of Rough in Breckinridge county. Have updated products for this
latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051126
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands are the precip in general now has a steady
eastward progression on radar, following the moisture plume and
forcing aloft as they shift east. Latest high report is 19" at Falls
of Rough in Breckinridge county. Have updated products for this
latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 051126
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
626 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 620 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Best frontogenetic forcing is shifting east now, enhanced EPV values
just behind that forcing is helping to spur on one more band from
west of Louisville down to Beaver Dam, where they need no more snow.
The stronger band now runs from Lexington southwest to Bowling
Green. Both bands are the precip in general now has a steady
eastward progression on radar, following the moisture plume and
forcing aloft as they shift east. Latest high report is 19" at Falls
of Rough in Breckinridge county. Have updated products for this
latest thinking.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........RJS
Short Term.....RJS
Long Term......BJS
Aviation.......RJS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 051124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME LINGERING MVFR
AT KOWB BEFORE SNOW EXITS THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM AROUND NOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. KPAH/KCGI SHOULD HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT
KEVV/KOWB LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

IN...NONE.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KPAH 051124
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 523 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME LINGERING MVFR
AT KOWB BEFORE SNOW EXITS THAT AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM AROUND NOON AND PERSIST INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. KPAH/KCGI SHOULD HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS...BUT
KEVV/KOWB LOOK TO BE MORE SCATTERED. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY...THEN
BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.

MO...NONE.

IN...NONE.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051121
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
621 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 051118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 051118
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
618 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 615 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

A major winter storm is winding down at the TAF sites, although BWG
and LEX still have a few more hours of light to moderate snow to
deal with. SDF will be finishing the snow shortly after this
forecast goes valid. Expect visibilities to continue to be 1/2 to 1
SM in snow, with visibilities likely hanging around 1-2 SM in BR
after snow ends well into the day. Ceilings are expected to be in
the IFR or low MVFR range in snow, improving to mostly above fuel
alternate later today. SDF has already gone into the high MVFR range
and is expected to stay there before going back to VFR later this
afternoon.

Otherwise, expect light northerly winds to persist through the day
with any lingering stratocu scattering out this evening as Arctic
high pressure builds into the area.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KJKL 051014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 051014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 051014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY



000
FXUS63 KPAH 050816
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
216 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF FOR SNOW REMOVAL
CREWS AS WELL AS THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

THE EXISTING DEEP SNOWPACK WILL HINDER THE WARMING TREND...AT
LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERALLY KEPT FORECAST TEMPS BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. TEMPS WILL GET ABOVE
FREEZING ON BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SLOW MELTING OF
THE SNOW.

THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL DOMINATE
OUR REGION. A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY BRING SOME CLOUDINESS...BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MODEL GUIDANCE TO SUGGEST PRECIPITATION.

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NATION. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE
AT THIS POINT...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WILL MOVE NORTH INTO OUR LATITUDE. PRECIP COULD POSSIBLY
SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS WEST KENTUCKY BY MID WEEK. WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN PARTS OF WEST KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY.
SNOWMELT SHOULD BE RATHER QUICK AS STRONG MARCH SUNSHINE COMBINES
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DH
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...MY




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050759
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050759
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 245 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Snow Continues Early This Morning...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

Had an impressive couple of bands moving slowly over the region
overnight. So far the highest total is 16" in Radcliff, in Hardin
county, with several foot+ reports. Would not be surprised to have
many more reports as people wake up this morning. Snow will start to
taper off over the morning hours as the plume of moisture shifts
slowly east. Will keep the Winter Storm Warning up at least through
daybreak. Day shift may be able to transition it over to a
Traveler`s Advisory for slick and snow-covered roads.

Skies will clear tonight with winds going light and variable as well
as high pressure moves into the Ohio Valley. With the snowpack in
place temperatures still look on track for near record lows. Have
gone well below guidance and may not be low enough with this
forecast.

Winds will become more southerly by Friday afternoon, and under a
good March sunshine, we should get close to the freezing mark, but
given the snow pack in place kept the forecast under for most
locations.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015...

...Spring is coming...Snowmelt in earnest...

Friday Night - Saturday...

Well...the major winter storm has long passed and wide area of
surface high pressure will dominate with dry conditions. The
challenge of the long term is forecasting temperatures over the
snowpack.  Some places have 12-20 inches in the mesoscale bands.

Lowered Temperatures even though we will have return flow with light
southerly winds.  This could set up a eerie fog scenario with
advection fog set up on cold thickness snowpack with high liquid
water equivalent.

Expect low temps Sat to range between 10-13 degrees, but adjusted
low lying snowpack areas.  Highs on Sat afternoon to rise above
freezing into the mid and upper 30s.

Sunday - Thursday...
Agree with the previous forecaster that the GFS tries to bring a
very small amount of precip into our area from a disturbance passing
to our north on Sunday, but moisture profiles seem too shallow for
precipitation.  Thus, will continue with increased clouds and no
POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20-30% POPs in that time frame.  One thing
that long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week! Snowmelt
will occur in earnest!  Spring will soon be upon us.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Short Term........RJS
Long Term.........JDG
Aviation..........BJS






000
FXUS63 KPAH 050757
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
157 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 152 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE PENNYRILE...WHERE UP TO A FOOT HAS FALLEN IN
SOME LOCATIONS AND AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE INCHES LOOK POSSIBLE
BEFORE IT TAPERS OFF. RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE CLEARLY AND OBS
REVEAL DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SHARPLY INCREASING WHERE THE SNOW
TAPERS SHARPLY FROM SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE IT ENDS. ANTICIPATE ALL THIS WILL COME TO A CLOSE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL RETAIN THE CURRENT EXPIRE TIME AND CANCEL
WEST TO EAST AS WE SEE THESE TRENDS UNFOLD.

STILL FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN OVERHEAD AND ANCHORS ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY BY 12Z FRIDAY. AS A RESULT...WINDS WILL DIMINISH...SO
THE EFFECTIVE TEMPS/WIND CHILLS NEAR ZERO WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED AS
SUCH ON THE HWO. RECORD LOWS LOOK TO BE UNTOUCHED UNLESS IT COOLS
ABOUT 5F OR MORE FROM OUR EXISTING FORECAST LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ILZ090-091-093-094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MOZ112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     KYZ001>022.

&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KLMK 050605
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

SPC Mesoanalysis page still has a good band of frontogenesis at 700
mb with EPV colocated and this region is where the heaviest returns
are on radar. Initial two band structure has morphed into one
broader and slightly weaker band. Still getting plenty of heavy snow
reports in that band with a foot likely in several spots. Louisville
may yet see a little more snow as another surge of moisture comes in
here from southern Illinois.

Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD/RJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050605
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

SPC Mesoanalysis page still has a good band of frontogenesis at 700
mb with EPV colocated and this region is where the heaviest returns
are on radar. Initial two band structure has morphed into one
broader and slightly weaker band. Still getting plenty of heavy snow
reports in that band with a foot likely in several spots. Louisville
may yet see a little more snow as another surge of moisture comes in
here from southern Illinois.

Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD/RJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050605
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

SPC Mesoanalysis page still has a good band of frontogenesis at 700
mb with EPV colocated and this region is where the heaviest returns
are on radar. Initial two band structure has morphed into one
broader and slightly weaker band. Still getting plenty of heavy snow
reports in that band with a foot likely in several spots. Louisville
may yet see a little more snow as another surge of moisture comes in
here from southern Illinois.

Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD/RJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050605
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
105 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 100 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

SPC Mesoanalysis page still has a good band of frontogenesis at 700
mb with EPV colocated and this region is where the heaviest returns
are on radar. Initial two band structure has morphed into one
broader and slightly weaker band. Still getting plenty of heavy snow
reports in that band with a foot likely in several spots. Louisville
may yet see a little more snow as another surge of moisture comes in
here from southern Illinois.

Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD/RJS
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Updates/Mesoscale....JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Updates/Mesoscale....JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Updates/Mesoscale....JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Updates/Mesoscale....JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Updates/Mesoscale....JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050544
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1244 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow is setting up from Breckinridge
through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall rates of over one inch
per hour will be experienced under this band as it sags southeast
towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy snow continue along and south
of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along the Ohio will likely continue
through at least midnight and probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 1240 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

Impactful winter storm ongoing across the TAF sites. Persistent
moderate to heavy snow continues to slide NE under a powerful upper
level jet. Visibilities have mostly been around 1/4 to 1/2 mile
range in heavy snow, with ceilings below the IFR threshold.

SDF will be the first to see improvement, and will likely waffle in
and out of 1/2 to 2 miles as it lingers on the northern edge of the
precipitation shield. Expect to improve to low MVFR by 08z with a
continued steady north wind. Have light snow ending just after
daybreak, with a return to higher MVFR ceilings. Expect to go VFR
by early this evening.

LEX and BWG still have several more hours of 1/2-1 SM moderate to
heavy snow and IFR ceilings before conditions improve to light snow
around daybreak. Expect snow to end around early to mid afternoon
with MVFR conditions persisting at least through sunset. Steady
north winds will persist through the forecast period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ this afternoon
     FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Updates/Mesoscale....JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS






000
FXUS63 KJKL 050537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION
LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC
MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED
AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER
ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME.
DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF
THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD
AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS
RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF
SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD
SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND
QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO
CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON
TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH.
HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGH HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 050537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION
LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC
MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED
AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER
ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME.
DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF
THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD
AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS
RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF
SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD
SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND
QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO
CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON
TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH.
HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGH HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 050537
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION
LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC
MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED
AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER
ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME.
DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF
THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD
AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS
RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF
SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD
SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND
QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO
CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON
TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH.
HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGH HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050444
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1144 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Complex winter system moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into
early tomorrow which will continue to bring flight conditions as low
as VLIFR.

KSDF:
Already got observations of 1/4sm in +SN.  Think that moderate to at
times heavy snow will continue through 10Z.  Snow should lighten
after 10Z with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end
around 13Z at SDF with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the
daylight hours tomorrow.

KLEX:
Have had reports of -SNPL in the Lexington area so expected LEX to
be in the transition zone for the next hour or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate to at times heavy
snow will occur between 1Z to 12Z.  Snow should lighten after 12Z
with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around
15Z at LEX with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight
hours tomorrow.

KBWG:
Believe precip will change from -RA to -SNPL very soon in the
Bowling Green area so will start the TAF with a mix.  Expected BWG
to be in the transition zone through 2Z or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate snow will occur
between 4Z to 11Z.  Snow should lighten after 11Z with flight
conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around 14Z at BWG
with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight hours
tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the north through the period between 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Mesoscale......JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 050444
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1144 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1130 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Intense mesoscale band of snow up to 1.5 inches per hour continues
at 1130 pm EST from Hardinsburg through just south of Fort Knox
through Shelbyville through Frankfort. This band is only very slowly
moving southeast. It is under this band and across the Bluegrass
Region that some storm total snowfall amounts of a foot or more are
possible.

Snow is beginning to lessen over southern Indiana and only an inch
or so of additional snow is likely from Dubois through northern
Scott County. The edge of the very heavy snow is right along the
Ohio River and will slowly sag southeast through 1am EST.


.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Complex winter system moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into
early tomorrow which will continue to bring flight conditions as low
as VLIFR.

KSDF:
Already got observations of 1/4sm in +SN.  Think that moderate to at
times heavy snow will continue through 10Z.  Snow should lighten
after 10Z with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end
around 13Z at SDF with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the
daylight hours tomorrow.

KLEX:
Have had reports of -SNPL in the Lexington area so expected LEX to
be in the transition zone for the next hour or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate to at times heavy
snow will occur between 1Z to 12Z.  Snow should lighten after 12Z
with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around
15Z at LEX with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight
hours tomorrow.

KBWG:
Believe precip will change from -RA to -SNPL very soon in the
Bowling Green area so will start the TAF with a mix.  Expected BWG
to be in the transition zone through 2Z or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate snow will occur
between 4Z to 11Z.  Snow should lighten after 11Z with flight
conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around 14Z at BWG
with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight hours
tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the north through the period between 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Mesoscale......JDG
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050346
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow was setting up from
Breckinridge County through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall
rates of over one inch per hour will be experienced under this
band as it sags southeast towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy
snow continues along and south of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along
the Ohio River will likely continue through at least midnight and
probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Complex winter system moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into
early tomorrow which will continue to bring flight conditions as low
as VLIFR.

KSDF:
Already got observations of 1/4sm in +SN.  Think that moderate to at
times heavy snow will continue through 10Z.  Snow should lighten
after 10Z with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end
around 13Z at SDF with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the
daylight hours tomorrow.

KLEX:
Have had reports of -SNPL in the Lexington area so expected LEX to
be in the transition zone for the next hour or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate to at times heavy
snow will occur between 1Z to 12Z.  Snow should lighten after 12Z
with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around
15Z at LEX with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight
hours tomorrow.

KBWG:
Believe precip will change from -RA to -SNPL very soon in the
Bowling Green area so will start the TAF with a mix.  Expected BWG
to be in the transition zone through 2Z or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate snow will occur
between 4Z to 11Z.  Snow should lighten after 11Z with flight
conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around 14Z at BWG
with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight hours
tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the north through the period between 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 050346
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1046 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1040 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

At 1040 pm...a band of intense snow was setting up from
Breckinridge County through Fort Knox through Frankfort. Snowfall
rates of over one inch per hour will be experienced under this
band as it sags southeast towards Bardstown and Lexington. Heavy
snow continues along and south of the Ohio River. Heavy snow along
the Ohio River will likely continue through at least midnight and
probably longer.

Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Complex winter system moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into
early tomorrow which will continue to bring flight conditions as low
as VLIFR.

KSDF:
Already got observations of 1/4sm in +SN.  Think that moderate to at
times heavy snow will continue through 10Z.  Snow should lighten
after 10Z with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end
around 13Z at SDF with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the
daylight hours tomorrow.

KLEX:
Have had reports of -SNPL in the Lexington area so expected LEX to
be in the transition zone for the next hour or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate to at times heavy
snow will occur between 1Z to 12Z.  Snow should lighten after 12Z
with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around
15Z at LEX with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight
hours tomorrow.

KBWG:
Believe precip will change from -RA to -SNPL very soon in the
Bowling Green area so will start the TAF with a mix.  Expected BWG
to be in the transition zone through 2Z or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate snow will occur
between 4Z to 11Z.  Snow should lighten after 11Z with flight
conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around 14Z at BWG
with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight hours
tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the north through the period between 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 050253
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
953 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION
LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC
MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED
AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER
ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME.
DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF
THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD
AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS
RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF
SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD
SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND
QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO
CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON
TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH.
HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. MOST SITES HAVE FALLEN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME SITES FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT MOST SITES...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX FROM NW TO SE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVERNIGHT AS SITES TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW THEY WILL SEE
QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VIS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ



000
FXUS63 KLMK 050253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Complex winter system moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into
early tomorrow which will continue to bring flight conditions as low
as VLIFR.

KSDF:
Already got observations of 1/4sm in +SN.  Think that moderate to at
times heavy snow will continue through 10Z.  Snow should lighten
after 10Z with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end
around 13Z at SDF with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the
daylight hours tomorrow.

KLEX:
Have had reports of -SNPL in the Lexington area so expected LEX to
be in the transition zone for the next hour or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate to at times heavy
snow will occur between 1Z to 12Z.  Snow should lighten after 12Z
with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around
15Z at LEX with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight
hours tomorrow.

KBWG:
Believe precip will change from -RA to -SNPL very soon in the
Bowling Green area so will start the TAF with a mix.  Expected BWG
to be in the transition zone through 2Z or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate snow will occur
between 4Z to 11Z.  Snow should lighten after 11Z with flight
conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around 14Z at BWG
with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight hours
tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the north through the period between 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 050253
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
953 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

DID A UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO TRY TO KEEP UP WITH THE TRANSITION
LINE TONIGHT. THIS LINE HAS SOME WHAT LINED UP WITH THE WSR-88D CC
MOMENTS. MUCH OF THE TRANSITION HAS BEEN FROM RAIN TO SNOW AND/OR
SLEET MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO FREEZING RAIN BEING REPORTED
AT THIS POINT. IN FACT WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF AREAS GENERALLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM STANTON...CAMPTON...TO WEST LIBERTY SEEING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES. THIS COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE
STUCK WITH AMOUNTS WE HAVE...HOWEVER THESE AMOUNTS MAY NEED TO BE
UPDATED IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN A QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW IN
FUTURE UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 717 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE THIS EVENING. WSR-88D
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WE ARE SEEING A CHANGE OVER
ACROSS OUR FAR NW COUNTIES THIS HOUR. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE
TUNED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TRANSITION LINE COULD CHANGE OVERTIME.
DID OPT TO UPDATE THE TRANSITION LINE A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS
UPDATE TO REFLECT UPSTREAM OBS AND TRENDS. ALSO CONTINUING TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALLS AS A MIX...WITH SITES NORTH OF
THE REGION SEEING A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW. THIS COULD
AFFECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES AS THIS STORM
SYSTEM CREEPS SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE UPDATED TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS
TO LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AS
EVIDENCE BY WINDS GOING NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES FALLING
ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF NOW...MOST OF THIS IS
RAIN. HOWEVER...JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF SOME SLEET JUST NORTH IN
LEWIS COUNTY. THIS SEEMS TO BE MATCHING UP WELL WITH REPORTS OF
SLEET OCCURRING FIRST WITH THE INITIAL TRANSITION. GOING TO GO
WITH A MORE LIBERAL AREA OF SLEET/RAIN THIS EVENING AS WE COULD
SEE A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING SLEET. FREEZING RAIN
LOOKS TO BE A SHORT DURATION IF IT OCCURS AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW 32 TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AS THIS HAPPENS WE SHOULD THEN SEE A
QUICK TRANSITION TO SNOW. THIS IS BASICALLY HOW THINGS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM TODAY. BASED ON THE CHANGEOVER TIMES AND
QPF...IT LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND ICE FORECAST ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. THUS...NO
CHANGES EXPECTED WITH HEADLINES AND WILL LET EVERYTHING RIDE AS IS
FOR NOW. NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH MAY BE DIMINISHED BY LATER ON
TONIGHT AS EVERYTHING TRANSITIONS OVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THURSDAY...BUT WILL COME TO AN END
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EARLY DAY HIGH.
HOWEVER...SOME SUNSHINE MAY PEAK THROUGH BY MID
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A BRIEF JUMP UPWARDS WITH TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS THE STORM SYSTEM AND ANY
LINGERING PRECIP DEPARTS. IN FACT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BUT THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE THE TEMPS FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PLUNGE TO
NEAR 0 DEGREES. WITH FRESH SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND IN THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TEMPS COULD REACH 5 BELOW ZERO IN THESE LOCATIONS. HIGHS
ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVERHEAD....WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.
SOME SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE LOWER TEENS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...TEMPERATURES START MODERATING BACK TOWARDS SEASONABLE LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND BUT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL HIT THE 50S BY MONDAY...AND EVEN
POSSIBLY 60 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK... LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MODEL DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DURING THOSE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAKE AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. MOST SITES HAVE FALLEN TO IFR THIS EVENING AND WOULD
EXPECT MOST SITES WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND THROUGH THE
NIGHT...WITH SOME SITES FALLING TO LIFR AT TIMES. RIGHT NOW THE
RAIN CONTINUES AT MOST SITES...HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX FROM NW TO SE AS WE GO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL THEN EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVERNIGHT AS SITES TRANSITION TO MORE SNOW THEY WILL SEE
QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VIS. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM SLIDES EAST.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...DJ




000
FXUS63 KLMK 050253
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
953 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 940 pm EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Freezing rain and sleet continues along a line along the Cumberland
Parkway. Snow has had a difficult time moving south of a Bowling
Green to Madison County line. Eventually, mixed precipitation will
change over to snow. Sleet accumulations along the Bluegrass Parkway
may exceed 1/2 inch before changing over to snow towards midnight.

Issued at 820 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Will let the areal flood warnings and flood advisories expire. Rain
has changed over to snow across much of the advised area. Main stem
rivers  such as the Kentucky and Green will still rise over the next
several days.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday Night)...
Issued at 301 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Winter Storm Still on Track Tonight...
...Bitter Cold Friday Morning...

First, though, will likely go ahead and let the Flood Watch expire
on time at 7pm EST/6pm CST.  Only light rainfall amounts are
expected for the rest of the afternoon/evening and any ongoing minor
flooding can be handled with short term products.

Cold air is coming into the region as arctic high pressure enters
the from the northwest.  The rain changed to sleet and then snow
earlier this afternoon north of the Ohio River, with the changeover
continuing to move to the southeast late this afternoon and this
evening.  Frontogenetical forcing, our location near the right
entrance region of the upper jet, deep moisture, significant
isothermal layer and good dendritic growth on soundings, and some
weak low level instability all point to widespread snow tonight.
Snow amounts are never easy to nail down, but in general, after
chatting with neighboring offices, we have remained fairly
consistent with the amounts we`ve been advertising since last night.
There will be some banding with this event, and anyone getting
caught under a band will see strong snowfall rates and, as a result,
higher amounts.  The best chance for heavy banding appears to be
roughly from the northern Blue Grass through the Nolin and Rough
River Lake areas.

We have pulled back a bit on glaze in the south tonight.  In
southern Indiana the changeover has been primarily from rain to
sleet to snow, and model progs in southern Kentucky this evening
support that idea.  Some ice will still be possible, but should be
less than a tenth of an inch.

Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the teens...perhaps
around 20 in the Lake Cumberland region.

On Thursday the storm system will pull off as the arctic high
advances from Iowa to Illinois.  In southern Indiana significant
snow should be done before the sun rises, with snow tapering off
from northwest to southeast during the early and mid morning hours
in Kentucky.  Could see a few lingering flurries into the afternoon
as clouds slowly break up.  With clouds in the sky and snow on the
ground, and northerly surface winds, went cooler than guidance for
highs.  Didn`t goo *too* cool, though, since we could get some
partial March sunshine in the afternoon.  Given this, temps landed
in the lower and middle 20s for highs.

Tomorrow night that high will continue to invade, and will be
centered right over the Ohio River at 12Z.  This will lead to calm
winds and mostly clear skies.  With those factors plus deep fresh
snowcover, went well below guidance for lows, keeping in line with
previous forecasts in the single digits either side of 0. That`s
about 30 degrees colder than normal.

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

...Spring-like Temperatures On the Way...

Friday - Saturday...

Sfc high pressure will settle into the region for Friday/Saturday
resulting in dry conditions.  The main forecast challenge will then
be temperatures over the snowpack.  After a potentially record
setting cold Fri morning, temperatures will struggle to reach the
mid to upper 20s Friday afternoon with perhaps some locations over
far south central KY in the Lake Cumberland region reaching lower
30s.  If the Lake Cumberland region receives a thicker snowfall,
they may not make it out of the upper 20s Fri afternoon either.

Friday night into Saturday, temperatures look to moderate some as
troughing/NW flow flattens over the Ohio Valley.  Expect low temps
Sat to range between 10-17 degrees and highs on Sat afternoon to
rise above freezing into the mid and upper 30s with some locations
potentially reaching 40 degrees.

Although sunshine on Friday should help melt snow off of dark
surfaces like pavement, Saturday should be a better melting day area
wide as temps rise above freezing.

Sunday - Wednesday...

The GFS tries to bring a very small amount of precip into our area
from a disturbance passing to our north on Sunday, but moisture
profiles seem too shallow for precipitation.  Thus, will continue
with increased clouds and no POPs.

The bigger story for next week is a big warm up for the Ohio Valley
taking temperatures back to around normal.  The upper level pattern
will flatten over the CONUS early next week helping temps to
moderate over our region as thicknesses steadily rise.  In addition
a more active southern stream should help push warm air into the
Ohio Valley starting Tues.  Some rain chances look to occur in the
Tues-Thurs time frame next week although models are in disagreement
as to when and how much rain we will receive mid week next week.
Therefore will continue 20% POPs in that time frame.  One thing that
long range models are in agreement with is high temperatures
reaching the 50s and perhaps low 60s Tues-Thurs next week!

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 620 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2015

Complex winter system moving through the Ohio Valley tonight into
early tomorrow which will continue to bring flight conditions as low
as VLIFR.

KSDF:
Already got observations of 1/4sm in +SN.  Think that moderate to at
times heavy snow will continue through 10Z.  Snow should lighten
after 10Z with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end
around 13Z at SDF with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the
daylight hours tomorrow.

KLEX:
Have had reports of -SNPL in the Lexington area so expected LEX to
be in the transition zone for the next hour or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate to at times heavy
snow will occur between 1Z to 12Z.  Snow should lighten after 12Z
with flight conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around
15Z at LEX with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight
hours tomorrow.

KBWG:
Believe precip will change from -RA to -SNPL very soon in the
Bowling Green area so will start the TAF with a mix.  Expected BWG
to be in the transition zone through 2Z or so before becoming
predominantly moderate snow.  Think that moderate snow will occur
between 4Z to 11Z.  Snow should lighten after 11Z with flight
conditions improving to MVFR.  Snow should end around 14Z at BWG
with MVFR cigs continuing through much of the daylight hours
tomorrow.

Winds will be out of the north through the period between 5-10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Thursday FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

$$

Update.........JSD
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......JSD






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