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000
FXUS63 KLMK 261907
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Weather for the short term period will be dry but cool with
temperatures below normal for this time of year. Aloft a large
trough will slowly shift eastward across the eastern CONUS. At the
surface high pressure will be ridging in from the north.

Clouds across southern KY should continue to clear this afternoon.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight. Some clouds may develop
across the northern Bluegrass tomorrow as a wave moves through the
flow aloft. These should clear tomorrow night. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 40s with a few sheltered
locations dropping into the upper 30s. Highs Monday will be in the
lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Synoptic pattern by midweek is expected to feature a lingering
trough across the eastern CONUS while a split flow lies from the
central Plains. At the surface, weak high pressure to our north will
keep a drier and seasonably cool air mass in place. By late Tuesday
into Wednesday, a southern stream system is poised to track along
the Gulf coast states and the main forecast concern is how far north
precipitation spreads into the forecast area.

The 26.12z GFS/ECMWF are in similar agreement showing precipitation
spreading as far north as the Ohio River Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday morning. The GEM solution is further south, confining
precipitation along/south of the KY border. Given the trends,
introduced slight chances of rain showers for the southern 1/3 to
1/2 of the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday morning. This
system isn`t overly moist as PWATs remain 1 inch or less.

Following this system, the forecast by the end of the upcoming work
week is looking very pleasant as upper level ridging moves over the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will allow
a slow but steady moderation in temperatures. Plan on highs to range
in the upper 60s to near 70 Thursday/Friday, low to mid 70s Saturday
and upper 70s on Sunday. Morning lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Sunny
to mostly sunny skies look to prevail each day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Drier air continues to work its way in from the north this
afternoon. Skies have become mostly clear at LEX and SDF. Ceiling
have begun to lift at BWG and are expected to scatter out over the
next couple of hours. Skies will be mostly clear through the
remainder of the TAF period with just some cirrus moving in Monday
morning. Winds out the north will become light and variable to calm
overnight, then pick up out of the north again tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261907
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Weather for the short term period will be dry but cool with
temperatures below normal for this time of year. Aloft a large
trough will slowly shift eastward across the eastern CONUS. At the
surface high pressure will be ridging in from the north.

Clouds across southern KY should continue to clear this afternoon.
Mostly clear skies are expected overnight. Some clouds may develop
across the northern Bluegrass tomorrow as a wave moves through the
flow aloft. These should clear tomorrow night. Lows tonight and
tomorrow night will be in the lower to mid 40s with a few sheltered
locations dropping into the upper 30s. Highs Monday will be in the
lower to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Synoptic pattern by midweek is expected to feature a lingering
trough across the eastern CONUS while a split flow lies from the
central Plains. At the surface, weak high pressure to our north will
keep a drier and seasonably cool air mass in place. By late Tuesday
into Wednesday, a southern stream system is poised to track along
the Gulf coast states and the main forecast concern is how far north
precipitation spreads into the forecast area.

The 26.12z GFS/ECMWF are in similar agreement showing precipitation
spreading as far north as the Ohio River Wednesday afternoon into
early Thursday morning. The GEM solution is further south, confining
precipitation along/south of the KY border. Given the trends,
introduced slight chances of rain showers for the southern 1/3 to
1/2 of the forecast area Wednesday into Thursday morning. This
system isn`t overly moist as PWATs remain 1 inch or less.

Following this system, the forecast by the end of the upcoming work
week is looking very pleasant as upper level ridging moves over the
lower Ohio Valley with high pressure at the surface. This will allow
a slow but steady moderation in temperatures. Plan on highs to range
in the upper 60s to near 70 Thursday/Friday, low to mid 70s Saturday
and upper 70s on Sunday. Morning lows in the upper 40s to 50s. Sunny
to mostly sunny skies look to prevail each day.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Drier air continues to work its way in from the north this
afternoon. Skies have become mostly clear at LEX and SDF. Ceiling
have begun to lift at BWG and are expected to scatter out over the
next couple of hours. Skies will be mostly clear through the
remainder of the TAF period with just some cirrus moving in Monday
morning. Winds out the north will become light and variable to calm
overnight, then pick up out of the north again tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........ZT
Aviation..........EER





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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261811
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 261811
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 261811
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM



000
FXUS63 KPAH 261811
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
111 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

FOR AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NE WINDS AOB 10 KTS. NO OPERATIONAL CONCERNS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM


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000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261755 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
155 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

CLEARING OUT OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MORE NORTHWEST LOCATIONS SUCH AS SYM
AND JKL ARE CURRENTLY VFR...WITH SME...LOZ AND SJS ALL EXPERIENCING
MVFR BUT SHOULD SOON EXPERIENCE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT. SAT TRENDS
INDICATE THAT SJS SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE TO VFR OF THESE
THREE...WITH SME AND LOZ DOING THE SAME WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS.
NON TAF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE FIRST 3 TO 4 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. ONCE VFR BEGINS...IT
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CU AND OR
STRATOCU SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE REGION AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO
VFR CIGS NEAR 5KFT AT SYM...SJS AND JKL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AVERAGING 10KT
OR LESS MAINLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KLMK 261658
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Drier air continues to work its way in from the north this
afternoon. Skies have become mostly clear at LEX and SDF. Ceiling
have begun to lift at BWG and are expected to scatter out over the
next couple of hours. Skies will be mostly clear through the
remainder of the TAF period with just some cirrus moving in Monday
morning. Winds out the north will become light and variable to calm
overnight, then pick up out of the north again tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261658
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Drier air continues to work its way in from the north this
afternoon. Skies have become mostly clear at LEX and SDF. Ceiling
have begun to lift at BWG and are expected to scatter out over the
next couple of hours. Skies will be mostly clear through the
remainder of the TAF period with just some cirrus moving in Monday
morning. Winds out the north will become light and variable to calm
overnight, then pick up out of the north again tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261658
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Drier air continues to work its way in from the north this
afternoon. Skies have become mostly clear at LEX and SDF. Ceiling
have begun to lift at BWG and are expected to scatter out over the
next couple of hours. Skies will be mostly clear through the
remainder of the TAF period with just some cirrus moving in Monday
morning. Winds out the north will become light and variable to calm
overnight, then pick up out of the north again tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261658
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1258 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Drier air continues to work its way in from the north this
afternoon. Skies have become mostly clear at LEX and SDF. Ceiling
have begun to lift at BWG and are expected to scatter out over the
next couple of hours. Skies will be mostly clear through the
remainder of the TAF period with just some cirrus moving in Monday
morning. Winds out the north will become light and variable to calm
overnight, then pick up out of the north again tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 261522 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1122 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261522 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1122 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE...SFC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES NOSING INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE LEADING TO CLEARING OUT OF
THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALSO WORKING ACROSS
THE AREA ABOVE THESE ATTM. THESE MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO
THIN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH A FEW RELATIVELY HIGH BASED AND
SHALLOW CU LINGERING WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

DRIER LOW LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WORK SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. THIS DRIER AIR ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF TONIGHT...MAY ALLOW FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEY
LOCATIONS TO POSSIBLY COOL A BIT MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME
ISOLATED OR PATCHY FROST IN A COLD SPOT OR TWO. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE EVALUATED AS THE 12Z MODEL SUITE ARRIVES FOR
THE AFTERNOON ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KPAH 261118 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 15-17Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTH NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...SMITH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 261118 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IFR/MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR BETWEEN 15-17Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH TO
NORTH NORTHEAST AOB 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...SMITH
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 261052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

INGESTED THE LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS THIS MORNING. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED
ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE EXITING THE AREA
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD
SHAPE AS IS WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MVFR BY AROUND 13Z AND TO VFR BY AROUND 20Z. THE TAF GRIDS WERE
UPDATED AND A WORK TAF WAS SAVED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KLMK 261045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The low cigs experienced overnight will improve through this morning
at all sites as drier air and VFR conditions build into the region.
VFR cigs have already pushed into KSDF and should be into KLEX
within the next hour or two.  The drier air will be slower to work
into KBWG, but cigs should slowly rise through the morning hours,
going VFR by the early afternoon.  Otherwise, winds today will be
out of the north, going light and variable tonight as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The low cigs experienced overnight will improve through this morning
at all sites as drier air and VFR conditions build into the region.
VFR cigs have already pushed into KSDF and should be into KLEX
within the next hour or two.  The drier air will be slower to work
into KBWG, but cigs should slowly rise through the morning hours,
going VFR by the early afternoon.  Otherwise, winds today will be
out of the north, going light and variable tonight as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 261045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The low cigs experienced overnight will improve through this morning
at all sites as drier air and VFR conditions build into the region.
VFR cigs have already pushed into KSDF and should be into KLEX
within the next hour or two.  The drier air will be slower to work
into KBWG, but cigs should slowly rise through the morning hours,
going VFR by the early afternoon.  Otherwise, winds today will be
out of the north, going light and variable tonight as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 261045
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 645 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The low cigs experienced overnight will improve through this morning
at all sites as drier air and VFR conditions build into the region.
VFR cigs have already pushed into KSDF and should be into KLEX
within the next hour or two.  The drier air will be slower to work
into KBWG, but cigs should slowly rise through the morning hours,
going VFR by the early afternoon.  Otherwise, winds today will be
out of the north, going light and variable tonight as high pressure
builds into the region.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260836
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 436 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND CONSIDERING THE
AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR FROST
BY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FROST IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER EASTERN VALLEYS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...ANYTHING WHICH FALLS DURING THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE SOME RAIN FOR OUR LOCAL AREA. THE
FIRST OF THESE ORIGINATES FROM A CURRENT WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. THE
SOUTHERN END IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AN UPPER LOW WHICH WILL
INITIALLY CREEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW
IT BEING PICKED UP BY THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AHEAD OF A NORTHERN
STREAM IMPULSE DIVING SOUTH INTO THE CONUS AT MIDWEEK. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WOULD TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST AND
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THE SYSTEM WOULD EXTEND
AS FAR NW AS KY...POSSIBLY CAUSING RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE NORTHERN STREAM
IMPULSE MOVES SOUTH TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS BENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF AND
THE ECMWF HAVING BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. WITH THAT
SAID...THE EVENTS ARE STILL AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OFF AND RELY ON AN
INTERACTION OF SYSTEMS TAKING PLACE. ONLY LOW POPS WILL BE USED AT
THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE BUILDS THAT THINGS WILL ACTUALLY PAN
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260737
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
237 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN IMPRESSIVE AND COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NATION. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN HAS AN
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE ON THE WEST COAST AND A DEEP CLOSED LOW IN
THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION, THERE IS A COMPLEX
REX BLOCK WITH A RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A DEEPENING
CLOSED LOW EVOLVING IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THESE FEATURES, THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA WILL INITIALLY BE IN A COL BETWEEN WITH THESE
SYSTEMS, LIMITING THE OVERALL OVERTURNING OF THE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
THIS SHOULD RETARD THE MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE NORTH AS DEEPER
HIGH PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DESERT SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST BY MOST
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TO WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME OVER THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE MOISTURE WILL BE
SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA, LIMITING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER BY TUESDAY. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA ESSENTIALLY DRY IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT ONLY
AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS MODELS STILL SHOWING A FEW
INCONSISTENCIES.

DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH A SYSTEM MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH MAY CLIP THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR CWA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT WILL HAPPEN
SO WILL KEEP DRY.

BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD
KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MODELS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE AND
RIPPLES OF H5 ENERGY GENERATING LIGHT QPF APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SATURDAY THE GFS SHOWS QPF MAKING IT INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS
OF OUR CWA WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME THE ECMWF ONLY SHOWS A SMALL INCREASE IN 1000-500MB
MOISTURE...NO FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO QPF...SO WILL KEEP
DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 260701
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

The synoptic pattern early this morning features split flow aloft,
with an amplifying trough over the eastern CONUS.  This trough and
the associated northwest flow will be the main player in the short
term period, bringing seasonably cool conditions but dry weather.

The area of low pressure that brought the severe weather yesterday
continues to push well east of the region as it fills in.  In its
wake, northerly winds are advecting in drier air into the
Commonwealth.  Therefore, despite a few isolated showers very early
this morning, think any precipitation will come to an end by dawn.
Clouds will hang tough through the morning hours, but should begin
to mix out late this morning into the afternoon as we mix to 4-5k
feet.  Therefore, do expect to see some sunshine this afternoon
which will help push highs into the low and mid 60s despite the
northerly winds.

For tonight, the surface gradient will relax a bit, allowing winds
to go light.  Skies will be clear, so think that there will be
pretty good conditions for radiational cooling.  There should be
just enough of a gradient to keep winds from going calm everywhere.
Given these factors, think that the typically cool/sheltered
locations will likely drop into the mid/upper 30s, but most
locations will remain in the upper 30s/lower 40s.  There may be some
patchy frost in the typically cooler/sheltered locations, but at
this time the frost does not look widespread enough to warrant any
headlines.  The day shift will take another look and update this
thinking as needed.

Otherwise, skies will start out mostly sunny on Monday.  A trough
will be diving through the north/northwest flow aloft on Monday
across portions of Ohio and eastern KY.  Model forecast soundings
suggest there will be enough low-level moisture with this feature to
produce some strato-cu, mainly across the northern Bluegrass region
in the afternoon.  Therefore, temperatures there will be in the
upper 50s/low 60s, with mid 60s expected elsewhere under more
sunshine.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

Blocky and fairly amplified pattern will continue for most of the
upcoming week, with a fairly persistent eastern CONUS trof and split
flow to the west. Main challenge comes around midweek, as a southern
stream system makes its way across the Deep South, and a northern
stream impulse dives into the Great Lakes. In order to get even
light precip in the Ohio Valley, we would need to see some phasing
between these two systems. At this time, it appears that the
southern stream system will scoot past to our south on Wednesday,
and only warrants a 20-30 POP mainly in the Lake Cumberland region.
Northern stream system dives SE behind it, and GFS and ECMWF both
hint at a Fujiwhara interaction that could force the northern stream
low`s trajectory far enough west to bring precip into east-central
Kentucky on Thursday. Will not include a POP just yet but it bears
watching. By Friday and Saturday, the quiet weather pattern
continues as an upper ridge starts to build in from the Plains,
allowing temps to recover to exceedingly pleasant levels for the
first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260700
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL DATA...THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z. AFTER THAT...EXPECT MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION WILL BE WILL THINGS COOL OFF ENOUGH
FOR FROST TO FORM? BASED ON THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA THE ANSWER TO
THAT QUESTION WOULD BE YES FOR AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE FROST SUNDAY NIGHT WILL DEPEND
LARGELY ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS AND WHETHER OR NOT THE WIND
LAYS DOWN ENOUGH TO FAVOR FROST. WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL
INVOLVED WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...DECIDED TO LEAVE FROST
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DID GO AHEAD AND LOWER
SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TO LINE UP WITH THE LATEST COOP MOS DATA.

FOR TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES...READINGS WILL LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL...DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER THAT WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT
THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCALES...WITH A FEW PLACES PERHAPS ONLY
FALLING TO 40 OR 41. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE ON TAP. THIS
IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT TODAYS HIGHS TO BE...ACCOUNTING FOR THE
EXPECTED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 260530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 260530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 260530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KJKL 260530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE IFR TO LIFR CIGS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS. AN REMAINING RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE WELL EAST OF ALL THE
TAF SITES BY 11 OR 12Z. THE CLOUDS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BREAK UP
AROUND 12Z TODAY AS WELL...AND SHOULD SCATTER OUT NICELY BY 21 OR
22Z. WINDS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME FOG
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN...
THE FOG SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KPAH 260516
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF
SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...
BECOMING VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN ERODING BY SUNSET. NORTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



000
FXUS63 KLMK 260448
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260448
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260448
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260448
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260448
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260448
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1245 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2015

IFR conditions are expected throughout much of the overnight before
conditions improve with daytime mixing tomorrow.  The surface low
has pushed southeast into eastern KY and TN, bringing northerly
winds and low clouds in its wake.  This northerly wind shift and the
lower cigs have not quite made it into KBWG yet, but should before
06Z.

Otherwise, conditions will improve through the day today as the
latest guidance suggests we should mix out the low clouds by the
late morning/early afternoon.  Could see them lift into a cu deck in
the afternoon, but bases should be VFR.  Winds will continue out of
the north around 10 knots.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 260243
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO WORK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY.
GIVEN THE WATCH EXPIRES AT 11 PM...WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED IT FOR
AN HOUR TO CAPTURE THE REMAINING CONVECTION AS IT EXITS THE AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT HAS GONE AWAY...STILL A
THREAT FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS TO CONTAIN SOME DAMAGING WINDS OR
PERHAPS A STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME LARGER HAIL. IN
FACT...JUST A LITTLE BIT AGO...A REPORT OF A 61 MPH WIND GUST WAS
RECEIVED OUT OF RUSSELL COUNTY. THUS...STILL WATCHING THE WIND
THREAT CLOSELY. SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT
WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 260230
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of boundary /
warm front that currently is draped south of the Louisville /
Lexington metro areas. Environment along/south of the boundary
characterized by MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50
kt effective shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but
expecting storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our
west to make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has
deeper CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/
so damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 260230
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of boundary /
warm front that currently is draped south of the Louisville /
Lexington metro areas. Environment along/south of the boundary
characterized by MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50
kt effective shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but
expecting storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our
west to make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has
deeper CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/
so damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KLMK 260230
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 926 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Last of the strong to severe storms have pushed out of the forecast
area and air mass has stabilized due to previous storms and loss of
daytime heating. Severe threat has ended for the night and the
remaining portions of the severe thunderstorm watch have been
cancelled.

Issued at 720 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of boundary /
warm front that currently is draped south of the Louisville /
Lexington metro areas. Environment along/south of the boundary
characterized by MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50
kt effective shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but
expecting storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our
west to make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has
deeper CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/
so damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS




000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KJKL 252354
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SPC ISSUED A WATCH EARLIER FOR OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. WARM FRONT
CONTINUES TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH AND IS EVEN SHOWING UP ON LOCAL
RADARS. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE OFF ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH
AN MCS TAKING SHAPE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WHILE INSTABILITY IS A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED...THIS SHOULD NOT MATTER AS STORMS BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED ON COLD POOLS FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A TORNADO WITH THE 0-3KM SHEAR CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. ANY
TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE QUICK SPIN UPS ALONG NOTCHES IN THE LINE
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN A GOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY...WITH A HAIL THREAT JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 754 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ROLL ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN AN HOUR
WHEN THE BEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING IN THE TAFS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. CIGS MAY GO
NEAR OR BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AND STAY THERE WELL INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WE MAY SEE VFR BY THE END OF THE DAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAIN ON THIS POTENTIAL AS THE CLOUDS COULD BE FAIRLY STUBBORN
THIS TIME AROUND.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



000
FXUS63 KLMK 252315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussion Update...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of warm front
that currently is draped south of the Louisville / Lexington metro
areas. Environment along/south of the boundary characterized by
MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50 kt effective
shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but expecting
storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our west to
make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has deeper
CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/ so
damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussion Update...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of warm front
that currently is draped south of the Louisville / Lexington metro
areas. Environment along/south of the boundary characterized by
MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50 kt effective
shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but expecting
storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our west to
make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has deeper
CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/ so
damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussion Update...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of warm front
that currently is draped south of the Louisville / Lexington metro
areas. Environment along/south of the boundary characterized by
MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50 kt effective
shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but expecting
storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our west to
make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has deeper
CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/ so
damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussion Update...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of warm front
that currently is draped south of the Louisville / Lexington metro
areas. Environment along/south of the boundary characterized by
MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50 kt effective
shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but expecting
storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our west to
make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has deeper
CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/ so
damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussion Update...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of warm front
that currently is draped south of the Louisville / Lexington metro
areas. Environment along/south of the boundary characterized by
MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50 kt effective
shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but expecting
storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our west to
make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has deeper
CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/ so
damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT






000
FXUS63 KLMK 252315
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
715 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Mesoscale and Aviation Discussion Update...

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 710 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Convection has finally erupted along and just north of warm front
that currently is draped south of the Louisville / Lexington metro
areas. Environment along/south of the boundary characterized by
MUCAPE of 1000 to 1500 J/kg in a zone of 40 to 50 kt effective
shear. Storm mode mainly supercellular initially but expecting
storm mergers and an approaching bowing segment to our west to
make this a MCS over time. South-central KY air mass has deeper
CAPE profile along with drier mid levels /DCAPE 1000+ J/kg/ so
damaging wind threat should increase over time. Behind these
storms, wind shift to the north as the surface low passes will end
higher end storm threat locally by mid-evening.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 707 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Warm front / boundary stretched west to east across central KY this
evening and SDF/LEX will remain north of it through tonight. High
confidence of IFR ceilings in northeast flow. Elevated thunderstorms
will ride over the boundary, impacting SDF/LEX through about 02z. In
addition to lightning, hail is possible with these storms.

At BWG, south of the warm front, will likely see strong/severe
thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds as a cluster of
storms to the northwest move in. Storm threat will subside by 02z or
so.

Winds will turn to the north/northwest as the surface low passes.
Wrap around stratus in the 1-2 kft range will linger through
tomorrow. Gusty north winds possible late morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........ZT
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......TWF
Aviation.......ZT





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251956
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
356 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME CLEARING SKIES IN
THE SOUTH AND SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO OHIO. WENT
A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH WITH THE NORTH
REMAINING WITH CLOUDS A BIT LONGER BUT THIS WILL CREATE A HEATING
DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WITH
THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z
AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT LIKE THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BUT
RATHER MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST
THIS. WILL STILL KEEP THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS
WELL. AT THIS TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION
IN WESTERN KY IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH
THIS DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH
THE BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND
SOUTH. THEN HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE LOW OFF TO THE WEST WILL
FINALLY TRACK EAST WITH A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF TONIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE AREA. ALL PRECIP...AND
ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END AFTER 06Z.

THE MID LEVEL WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
ON SUNDAY...WITH THE REGION IN NW CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE SFC LOW WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING TO THE
SOUTHEAST...BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER
NEAR 850 MB FOR SOME FLAT CU WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON ON ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD
THE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE MEANDER
BACK CLOSER TO THE NORTHEAST US COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD
AND REMAIN THERE INTO MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY GETTING
KICKED EAST BY A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA. ONE DISTURBANCE WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW.
THIS SHOULD BRING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CU TO THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY THE EAST ALONG WITH A SPRINKLE OR A STRAY SHOWER. ONCE
THIS SHORTWAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST...A PERIOD OF HEIGHT RISES AND
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO EARLY ON WED. THIS SHOULD
YIELD DRY WEATHER FROM LATE MON EVENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND INCONSISTENCIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...HOWEVER...WITH THE 12Z GFS TAKING A NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH AT MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS TAKES A MID LEVEL
WAVE TO OUR SOUTH. DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...THE GFS
BUILDS MID LEVEL RIDGING TOWARD THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WITH
CORRESPONDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS YIELDS DRY
AND WARM WEATHER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...IF IT WERE
TO VERIFY. BUT...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
SHORTWAVES FROM MID WEEK INTO EARLY ON FRIDAY...AND DEVELOPS AND
TAKES A CLOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND THEN EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE APPALACHIANS AND THEN TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THU NIGHT. THIS WOULD BE A WETTER...CLOUDIER...AND COLDER SCENARIO
FROM MIDWEEK...WED INTO THU NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER TO END THE
PERIOD.

GIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
MODEL BLEND WHICH IS MORE OR LESS MIDDLE OF THE ROAD. THIS HAVE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FROM WED INTO THU
NIGHT. THIS ALSO WAS A COLDER FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS IN PARTICULAR
FOR THE PERIOD FROM WED INTO FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FIELD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KLMK 251913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251913
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
313 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night)...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

The warm front continues to creep northward this afternoon and now
lies just to the north of a Richmond, KY to Shepherdsville, KY to
Tell City, IN line. South of this line clouds have scattered out and
temperatures have quickly risen into the lower to mid 70s. The area
will quickly become unstable as temperatures continue to rise. Along
the warm front bulk shear values and storm relative helicity values
continue to rise.

Though the radar is relatively quiet right now, storms are expected
to quickly begin to develop in the 4-5 PM EDT time range. Think
there will be two different potential rounds of severe weather this
afternoon and evening. The first will be along and just to the north
of the warm front beginning in the 4-5 PM time frame. Any storms
that form to the north of the front could potentially have large
hail thanks to steep mid level lapse rates. Storms that form more
along and just to the south of the front could be supercells capable
of producing very large hail bigger than golf balls and possibly a
few tornadoes.

As the surface low associated with this system moves into central KY
a second area of storms will form near the triple point and along
the trailing frontal boundary. These storms look to move into south
central KY around 23-00Z. A few of these storms could be supercells,
but some bowing segments will be possible as well. Thus, there is
more of a threat of wind damage across south central KY. As this
area moves eastward through the evening it could lose some of its
punch as instability will be waning at that time. However, the severe
threat could persist into eastern KY.

Most of the strong storms should move out of the forecast area by
02-03Z with some light showers lingering into the overnight hours.
Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night, falling into
the lower 40s to lower 50s. Sunday and Sunday night will be dry.
Highs will be in the 60s with lows in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Benign weather pattern is expected for much of the extended forecast
period. Overall flow aloft will be somewhat blocky and amplified
with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S. and ridging in
the central U.S. However, a mid-level low will meander east over the
southern Plains to the south of the ridge. Models suggest this
system will move east into the Gulf Coast states by mid next week,
when GFS and ECMWF begin to differ in phasing potential with a
shortwave digging southeastward in the northern stream. GFS keeps
the systems separate while ECMWF tries to phase things leading to a
chance of showers over eastern parts of south-central KY. At this
time, favor a GFS non-phased solution, but will keep a chance of
showers over our far southeast counties in central KY mid week.
Otherwise, looks like dry weather should prevail through the period.

Early next week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and mid-upper 60s
Wednesday. Expect lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Tuesday morning
and in the 40s Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

For late next week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide
east resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs in at least the lower 70s Friday and throughout the
70s on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........TWF
Aviation..........EER





000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251849
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
149 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR ERN MO INTO
SRN IL IN THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
AN ALIGNMENT OF FAVORABLE FACTORS SUGGESTING A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESP
ALONG/EAST OF THE MS RIVER.

STRONG HEATING IS RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION BENEATH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CU FIELDS INCREASING ACROSS CNTRL/E-CNTRL
MO WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES EXIST. MEANWHILE...A GRADUAL
BREAKUP OF CLOUDS IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS
WILL CONTINUE TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S.

ELEVATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY DEVELOPING SW OF ST. LOUIS AND SHOULD
ONLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. MULTIPLE
SUPERCELLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TREK EWD THEN SEWD ALONG A SFC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN ADDITION
TO LARGE HAIL.

ONCE THE SFC LOW AND FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION LATER THIS
EVENING...A NICE SPELL OF WEATHER SHOULD FINISH OUT MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDWEST. MAY BE A BIT CHILLY AT NIGHT
SUN/MON..WITH TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...DAYTIME TEMPS SHOULD END UP WELL INTO THE 60S.



.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

ECMWF SHOWS A WEAK FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING, PRODUCING VERY MINOR QPF, BUT BOTH GFS AND THE
CANADIAN KEEP US DRY FOR THIS PERIOD.  PREFER TO GO WITH THE DRY
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

MODELS THEN SHOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BEING
REINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL WEDNESDAY AND SEASONAL THURSDAY, THEN TREND
A LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK
TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...RST



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251829
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
229 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO FURTHER ADJUST THE POPS AND SKY COVER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WENT A BIT SLOWER ON ERODING CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH THE NORTH REMAINING WITH CLOUDS BUT THIS WILL CREATE A
HEATING DIFFERENTIAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS. WITH THIS...EXPECTING SEVERE CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFTER 21Z AND MOST LIKELY FROM THE WEST. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT
LIKE THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
KENTUCKY. HAVE UPDATED THE POPS TO SUGGEST THIS. WILL STILL KEEP
THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES IN PLACE AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME...WARMING CONTINUES IN THE SOUTH AND CONVECTION IN WESTERN KY
IS NEAR OR BEGINNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT...WOULD EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE EAST WITH THE
BEST ENVIRONMENT CONVERGING OVER THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY AND SOUTH.
A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT AND NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA BUT IFR
AND BELOW CIGS AND VIS REMAIN AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS WARM FRONT SLOWLY NUDGES
NORTH...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BELOW FEILD MINS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THUNDER NEAR
EACH STATION THROUGH 06Z. AFTERWARD...LOW CIGS AND VIS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Overall tranquil weather pattern expected for much of the extended
forecast period. Average flow aloft pattern will be somewhat blocky
and amplified with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S.
and ridging in the central U.S. However, an mid-level low will
meander east over the southern Plains to the south of the ridge.
Models suggest that this system will move east into the Gulf Coast
states and weaken mid to late next week, and not phase with a
northern stream shortwave rotating southeast over the upper Ohio
Valley. As a result, dry weather should prevail through the period.

With cool surface high pressure to the north of our area early in
the week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s Monday afternoon, low-mid 60s Tuesday, and mid-upper
60s Wednesday. Expect lows in the lower 40s in many areas Tuesday
morning (possibly upper 30s in valleys), and 40s Wednesday morning.

For late week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide east
resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs expected in the 70s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251709
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
109 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Overall tranquil weather pattern expected for much of the extended
forecast period. Average flow aloft pattern will be somewhat blocky
and amplified with troughs over the northeastern and western U.S.
and ridging in the central U.S. However, an mid-level low will
meander east over the southern Plains to the south of the ridge.
Models suggest that this system will move east into the Gulf Coast
states and weaken mid to late next week, and not phase with a
northern stream shortwave rotating southeast over the upper Ohio
Valley. As a result, dry weather should prevail through the period.

With cool surface high pressure to the north of our area early in
the week, temperatures will be below normal with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s Monday afternoon, low-mid 60s Tuesday, and mid-upper
60s Wednesday. Expect lows in the lower 40s in many areas Tuesday
morning (possibly upper 30s in valleys), and 40s Wednesday morning.

For late week into next weekend, the ridge aloft should slide east
resulting in continued dry weather and a moderating trend, with
afternoon highs expected in the 70s Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 107 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Ceilings lowered to IFR at SDF and LEX this morning as they
remain north of the warm front. This front should stay to the south
of both these terminals. Therefore do not see much improvement in
ceilings, except for perhaps a few hours late this afternoon when
storms are expected to develop. These storms will be hit and miss,
but any that do develop could produce hail. The storms will weaken
after sunset with some showers lingering into the overnight hours in
the wake of a low pressure system crossing the area. IFR ceilings
are expected to persist through much of the night, beginning to lift
around dawn. Winds will shift to northerly to northeasterly as the
low moves through.

BWG is south of the warm front. Ceilings through the afternoon will
likely bounce back and forth between MVFR and VFR as clouds scatter
out from time to time. Strong to possibly severe storms will develop
late this afternoon in the vicinity of BWG. These will move out by
mid to late evening as a cold front moves through. IFR ceilings are
expected to develop in the wake of the front and persist into the
morning hours tomorrow.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......EER





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A SWATH OF SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. AT THIS
TIME...THE WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AND SLOWLY MOVING NORTH AND IS
POSITIONED JUST NORTH ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER. CLOUD COVER AT THIS
TIME IS QUITE EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH...SOME PEAKS OF
CLEARING ARE OCCURRING TO THE WEST AND A FEW PEAKS TO THE SOUTH.
HOWEVER...ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST SEEMS TO BE
KEEPING CLOUD COVER STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TIMED A BIT OF CLEARING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY BUT IF THE CLOUD COVER MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
CONTINUES...SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DRASTICALLY LIMITED INTO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATER THIS EVENING...THE HRRR HINTS AT
AN MCS DEVELOPMENT AND MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH THE SURFACE LOW BY 00Z TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE EVENT MAY
BE TRANSITIONING INTO A HYDRO EVENT. HAVE UPDATED THE ZFP TO TIME
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND THE PROGRESSION OF
THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE DAY. IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WILL SAY ALOT ABOUT WHAT TRANSPIRES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KLMK 251332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251332
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
932 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 930 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Latest guidance including the latest SPC Day 1 Outlook continues to
trend the severe threat slightly to the north. No big changes have
been made to the grids, but have tried to trend the pop forecast a
bit towards the latest hi-res model guidance. Also nudged the area
where severe storms are mentioned slightly further to the north. The
ongoing precipitation has not had any lightning associated with it
so far. However, think we could still see some isolated flashes
through the late morning hours.

Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER/KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 251213
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 13 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

BLENDED EARLY MORNING OBS INTO THE FORECAST. NO SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...VFR CONDITIONS
WERE STILL PRESENT AT MOST LOCATIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. THE
EXCEPTION WAS IN THE FAR SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND KEKQ
AND KSME...WHERE MVFR CEILINGS HAD DEVELOPED. THE MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS MORNING...WITH SOME
IFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...LARGELY MVFR CAN BE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...EXCEPT FOR IFR FROM AROUND THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY NORTHWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FOR A TIME
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. SOME
OF THESE MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL
SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT...AND PRECIPITATION WILL START
TO TAPER OFF LATE. HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251135 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 00-05Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH/FIRE WX
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251135 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 00-05Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH/FIRE WX
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 251135 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
635 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STORM SYSTEM IN THIS TAF
PERIOD...CIGS/VSBYS WILL RANGE FROM IFR TO VFR ALONG WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 00-05Z. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AOB 10
KNOTS EARLY WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH
GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH/FIRE WX
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP




000
FXUS63 KLMK 251052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 251052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 251052
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
652 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage this morning, bringing MVFR vsbys at
cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording given
some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated through the morning hours.

A warm front will sharpen and lift northeast into the area today.
Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can be expected at
all sites.  The latest guidance suite continues to suggest this
front will likely stall just to the south of KSDF and KLEX, meaning
low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the day,
especially at KLEX. KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and
mix down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into
this evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over
central KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough
elevated instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as
well with this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the
TAF period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

12Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Low at KSDF and KLEX
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 251023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 251023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 251023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 251023
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
623 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 621 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, as it is
largely on track.  Still expecting rain showers to continue to
blossom over the region, especially along and north of I-64 this
morning.  This is all in response to a low-level jet and isentropic
ascent veering into the region.  May see a few rumbles of thunder
especially as we get into the late morning hours, but no severe
weather is expected through noon.

The 06Z NAM has come in further north with the warm frontal
placement late this afternoon, which would bring the I-64 corridor
more into play for severe potential.  However, the latest runs of
the HRRR continue to show the warm front stalling south of I-64 and
very close to the current forecast position.  Given the HRRR has a
decent handle on ongoing convection, and the support of the other
hi-res guidance in regards to expected frontal position this
afternoon, see no need to adjust things further north based on the
06Z NAM quite yet.  Will continue to monitor trends through the
morning hours and especially the 12Z guidance suite.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....KJD
Long Term......RAS
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250811
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR SW...WITH SUPER CELLS POSSIBLY
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
TORNADOES. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH TRAINING OF
CELLS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHERE THIS MAY SET UP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN. ANY HYDRO PROBLEMS LIKELY WOULD NOT ARISE UNTIL THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE OPTED TO LET DAY SHIFT EXAMINE THE 12Z RUN
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON A FFA.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE TO OUR SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL END ON
SUNDAY MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP DURING THE DAY FROM NW TO
SE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT
THIS AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE
EIGHT BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT
DIFFICULT FOR THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT
BREAK BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP



000
FXUS63 KPAH 250809
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE WITHIN THE FIRST 12 TO 18
HOURS (TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING)...TIED TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW AND WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TIMING OF SEVERE WEATHER IS MODERATE TO
HIGH FOR EXPANSION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE FOR PLACEMENT...MAINLY DUE TO ANTECEDENT
RAINFALL...OR THE LACK THEREOF...BETWEEN NOW AND 15Z (10 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING. THAT COULD THROW A SLIGHT WRENCH IN THE INITIATION
POINT FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

FROM A FORECAST INITIALIZATION STANDPOINT...THE 4KM NAM-WRF (ARW
VERSION) IS DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. OVERALL...THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE (12KM) SEEMED TO HAVE A
GRASP ON THE GENERATION AND PROPAGATION OF THE CONVECTION THROUGH
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA. MUST ASSUME THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE ENHANCED RISK AREA OUTLINED IN THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK
MAY SHOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE 00Z SATURDAY NAM-WRF MODEL OUTPUT.

IN REVIEWING THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FROM THE NAM-WRF GUIDANCE
FAMILY AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...THERE MAY BE A
SMALL WINDOW...MAINLY BETWEEN 15Z-17Z SATURDAY...WHERE STORMS MAY
FLARE UP OVER SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND OVER NORTHWEST KENTUCKY...AS
CAPE...HELICITY...AND A GRADIENT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-70
KNOTS BRIEFLY PHASE. THIS MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATE SEVERE STORM
BEFORE THE CAP BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH.

HOWEVER...RECENT AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CAP WILL
BE SHORT LIVED...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 18Z-21Z SATURDAY. THERE SHOULD
BE AN EXPLOSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE WFO
PAH FORECAST AREA. DURING THIS TIME...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
DROPS TO NEAR ZERO. DECENT CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG2 WILL BE AVERAGE
OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST...UP TO 3000 J/KG2 WILL
BE CENTERED OVER WEST KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
RESPECTABLE...0-3KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR RANGE SPANS MAINLY BETWEEN
35-55 KNOTS DURING THE EVENT...WITH THE HIGHEST...45-65 KNOTS
TIEDL CLOSELY TO AN EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS...RUNNING FROM THE I-64
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. THE VORTICITY GENERATION PARAMETER (VGP)
BECOMES QUITE IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 18Z SAT THROUGH 00Z SUN...IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...SUGGESTING DECENT UPDRAFT STRENGTH FOR
HAIL. THE 05-06Z SATURDAY RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING THAT MAXIMUM
UPDRAFT HELICITY AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES INCREASE MARKEDLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM AVA TO CARMI ILLINOIS BETWEEN 19Z-20Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF -20C HEIGHTS
SUGGEST SHARPENING LAPSE RATES FOR HAIL GENERATION IN THIS AREA.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...COULD BE BRIEF...BUT ISOLATED CHANCE FOR
SEVERE OVER A COUPLE OF SPOTS IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST
KENTUCKY...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A CARBONDALE TO CALHOUN
KENTUCKY LINE LATE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
IMPACT STARTING UP IN SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS ON OR AFTER 19Z...THEN
WORKING EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
ABOUT 01Z IN THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST KENTUCKY. RATHER THAN
GET TO PICKY ON COVERAGE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...DEFINED SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN GRIDS FOR THE PERIOD FROM 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 01Z
SUNDAY FOR ALL GRIDS THAT CONTAINED THUNDERSTORMS.

KEPT A MENTION OF TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TODAY...BUT SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 76-78 DEGREES MAY BE MORE
REASONABLE GIVEN ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER.

INCORPORTATED A BLEND OF NAM-WRF/HRRR GUIDANCE FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER ELEMENTS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THEN
ADDED IN ECMWF/GFS INTO THE LONGER TERM.

THE KEY TO ANY CHANGES IN THE ENHANCEMENT AND INITAL LOCATION OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REALLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE
STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION GRADIENT (WARM FRONT AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT) IS FOCUSED THIS MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

MEDIUM FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DISPARITY.

THE ONLY WEATHER OF ANY CONSEQUENCE IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO
HINGE UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST
TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HOLD FAST TO THEIR SOLUTIONS WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORM SYSTEM IS CONCERNED...IE THE GFS TRACK BRINGS
THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS
APPROXIMATELY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION SKIRTING BY TO
THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. FOR POPS IN THOSE TWO PERIODS JUST CONTINUED
WITH A BLEND WHICH ONLY IMPACTS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

NOT SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A BROAD
H5 TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH A SMATTERING OF PRECIPITATION OVER OUR
ENTIRE CWA. THE ECMWF SHOWS AN H5 TROUGH DROPPING DUE SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION PULLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. THE CANADIAN SHOWS AN H5
TROUGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH NO PRECIPITATIN FORECAST. KINDA WENT
WITH A GFS/ECMWF HYBRID FOR MAINLY SCHC POPS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND RIDGING ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
READINGS STARTING OFF THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL WILL GRADUALLY WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

(THIS DISCUSSION WAS EDITED TO REMOVE OUTDATED REFERENCES).

CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV
AND KOWB. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE
THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE
MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IS THE MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSE ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE...WITH EVENTS JUST BEGINNING TO
UNFOLD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT IS BEHIND SCHEDULE AS BASED
ON THE 00Z MODELS...WITH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER MS AND AL
POSSIBLY FOILING THE OUTCOME. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS IT
WILL STILL HAPPEN...BUT MAY BE MORE FOCUSE ON OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ONCE THIS PASSES...IT WILL BE A WAITING GAME FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS OUR AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THERE WILL BE LARGE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY PRESENT IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES...WITH WEAKER
AND MORE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FURTHER NORTHEAST. SHEAR WILL BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. DRY MID
LEVEL AIR IS ALSO EXPECTED IN OUR SW. THIS WILL PRESENT A THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KLMK 250755
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250755
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250755
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250755
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
355 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 345 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Severe Weather Likely This Afternoon and Evening...

Overview
========
The current synoptic setup features a split-flow regime across the
CONUS.  The Ohio Valley will be affected by a PV anomaly currently
across eastern Kansas and western MO, which will push through the
region late this afternoon into tonight.

In response to the ejecting PV anomaly out of the southwest flow
aloft, a surface low has formed across portions of eastern KS.  This
low will slide east today, but will begin to fill as the overall
system encounters confluent flow over the Ohio Valley.  A very sharp
warm front associated with this low pressure system will develop
across the Ohio Valley today.

This Morning
============
With the ejecting wave, isentropic ascent has increased across the
region this morning.  This has led to showers breaking out across
the Ohio Valley, and the radar should continue to blossom through
the morning hours as a low-level jet of 40-50 knots veers into the
region towards sunrise.  Forecast soundings show limited elevated
instability, so severe weather is not expected.  Just some showers
with a few embedded rumbles of thunder appears likely.

This Afternoon/Evening
======================
The placement of the aforementioned sharp warm front will be
absolutely critical to how far north the severe weather threat gets
this afternoon/evening.  The 25/00Z guidance shifted this front
south just a bit from previous runs, which would take much of the
I-64 corridor out of the main severe risk.  Will cautiously trend
the forecast towards this more southern solution given the support
on almost guidance members, but still am a bit weary this front
could end up surging further north, especially if there is less
showers/storm coverage this morning than expected (less convective
enhancement to the front).  This warm front will be the main player
that we will continue to monitor through the day.

At this point, expect the front to align itself roughly along a line
from Owensboro, to north of Elizabethtown, over towards Lebanon
by late this afternoon.  To the south of it, a warm and unstable
airmass is likely to materialize given temperatures rising to near
80 and dewpoints in the middle 60s.  This low-level environment
coupled with very steep lapse rates aloft will support MLCAPEs
anywhere from 1500-3000 J/kg, with much of that CAPE residing within
the hail growth zone (-10 to -30C).

The evolution of the convection could be rather complex.  There
seems to be a decent signal in the hi-res guidance that the strong
warm front may lead to convective initiation, which will likely be
initially discrete in nature.  Given 0-6km shear well over 50 knots,
these will be supercellular, if they are to form. The aforementioned
instability coupled with deep-layer shear will lead to a large hail
threat, with golf ball to even baseball-sized hail not out of the
question in some of these storms.  Bunker`s RM storm motion vectors
place the motion of these potential supercells almost parallel to
the warm front, which is worrisome because any storm that forms
along this front will have access to enhanced helicity, given the
backed surface winds.  Therefore, think there is an enhanced tornado
threat right along this boundary wherever it happens to set up,
perhaps more of a threat than SPC is currently highlighting with
their 5% Tornado risk.

Further south (across far southern KY, near TN border), strong
mixing coupled with the fact that the surface low will be filling
will lead to more veered surface winds, which should cut down
somewhere on the effective SRH.  However, with westerly low-level
jet expected to strengthen towards 26/00Z, hodographs will be
long/curved enough to support an isolated tornado threat early this
evening in areas south of the warm front.  Coverage of these storms
not tied to the warm front will likely be rather isolated, given a
lack of convergence and the presence of a weak cap in the warm
sector.

By a bit later this evening, the actual surface low will push into
west-central KY.  Near the triple point of this low, enhanced
convergence will likely lead to a more concentrated area of
convection, perhaps a mix of bowing segments and supercells which
will push into the I-65 corridor toward 02-04Z.  By this time,
daytime instability should be beginning to wane, but still think
this second round will carry a severe threat of large hail, damaging
winds, and isolated tornadoes as it pushes southeast across
south-central KY.

Bust Potential
==============
There remains some potential bust factors with this setup.  The
first and most obvious, is the morning convection.  We will need
this to clear out and some sunshine to break out south of the warm
front this afternoon for us to destabilize.  Given the general
guidance agreement, do have pretty high confidence this will occur
and we will become quite unstable across southern KY late this
afternoon.

The other potential bust factor will if discrete development will
occur late this afternoon/early evening.  Warm fronts can be tricky
in initiating surface-based convection, so we could go through the
day not seeing much becoming sustained along the front.  In
addition, the weak cap could hold through the rest of the warm
sector giving very little coverage of discrete convection until the
more concentrated line of storms approaches with the surface low
well after peak heating.

Summary
=======
While there is bust potential, have fairly high confidence in severe
weather this afternoon and evening.  Think the main threats will be
hail and damaging winds, but an enhanced tornado threat will be
found right along the warm front.  This is something we will
continue to monitor closely this afternoon.  Even north of the warm
front in Lexington and Louisville, forecast soundings show quite a
bit of elevated instability above the stable boundary layer, so
severe hail will certainly be a possibility even in areas north of
the warm front.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected from Sunday most of the
way through next week. Upper pattern looks fairly blocky as the main
player is an eastern CONUS trof that keeps getting reinforced.
Around mid-week a bowling-ball closed low in the southern stream
will push across the Deep South, with precip chances in the Ohio
Valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Timing is still a bit
uncertain, and the ECMWF is more bullish in phasing this system with
a northern stream disturbance, so will just paint low-end chance
POPs for Wednesday and Wednesday night. Temps will run below climo
for most of this period.

Toward the end of the week, upper ridging over the Plains starts to
build into the Ohio Valley. Look for dry weather and exceedingly
pleasant temps with highs in the 70s and lows either side of 50 just
in time for the first weekend in May.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........RAS
Aviation..........KJD






000
FXUS63 KJKL 250735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250735
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED. THE PERIOD IS
SET TO BEGIN WITH A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PATTERN
IS THEN FORECAST TO CHANGE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS BOTH
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER SYSTEMS MAKE THEIR WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND GULF COAST REGIONS. THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...AND THEREFORE WOULD HAVE
TO GREATER INFLUENCE ON AREA WEATHER MID WEEK. AS IT STANDS...A
ROUGHLY 60 40 BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WAS USED TO CREATE
THE FORECAST FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BRING MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHWARD AND PHASE WITH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS LOW. THE GFS DOES DIFFER SLIGHTLY FROM THE
ECMWF MODEL DURING THIS PERIOD...AS ITS NORTHERN STREAM LOW PUSHES
ON EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AS OPPOSED TO PHASING WITH THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AS THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING. THAT BEING
SAID...THIS IS WHERE THE USUALLY MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL
SOLUTION WAS FAVORED. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DIFFERING MODEL
SOLUTIONS...DECIDED TO STAY WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS...WITH 40 BEING THE HIGH END DURING THE WET PERIOD. FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE DRY AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM WEATHER
SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST AND ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
AND THE FACT THAT THIS WEEKENDS TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WELLBELOW
NORMAL DUE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. WHAT THIS
AMOUNTS TO IS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL STARTING OFF BEHIND THE EIGHT
BALL TO START THE WEEK TEMPERATURE WISE...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
THINGS TO WARM UP AS MUCH AS NORMAL DUE TO THE SHORT BREAK BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KJKL 250602
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...TEMPS HAVE NOT DROPPED OFF
AS QUICKLY AS WAS FORECAST. HAVE RAISED OVERNIGHT FORECAST MIN
TEMPS A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN VALLEYS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT TAF ISSUANCE...BUT WILL DEGRADE TO
MVFR FROM SW TO NE BETWEEN ABOUT 06Z AND 14Z AS RAIN DEVELOPS. IFR
IS ALSO EXPECTED AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. STEADY
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM SW TO NE DURING THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE REPLACED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEY WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE IN THE DAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME LOCATIONS MAY DESCEND BACK TO IFR WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



000
FXUS63 KLMK 250521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KLMK 250521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250521
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
121 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 118 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2015

Deteriorating conditions will push in through the TAF period, as an
area of low pressure approaches from the west.  Showers will
continue to expand in coverage early this morning, bringing MVFR
vsbys at cigs at times to all terminals.  Will leave in VCTS wording
given some marginal elevated instability, but think any thunderstorm
activity will be rather isolated.  Winds will be out of east at 5-10
knots through the remainder of the overnight period.

A warm front, now located over MO/AR will lift northeast through the
morning hours.  Just north of this front, a period of IFR cigs can
be expected at all sites.  In fact, the latest guidance suite
suggests this front will likely stall to the south of KSDF and KLEX,
meaning low cigs may persist in these locations through much of the
day.  Will trend the forecast toward the pessimistic side to account
for this trend.  KBWG will likely scour out this afternoon and mix
down SSW wind gusts around 25 knots.  Late this afternoon into this
evening, severe thunderstorms are expected to break out over central
KY, mainly affecting KBWG.  However, there is enough elevated
instability to warrant VCTS wording at KSDF and KLEX as well with
this activity.  Winds will turn more northerly late in the TAF
period as the area of low pressure pushes to the southeast.

06Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : Medium
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......KJD





000
FXUS63 KJKL 250250 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 250250 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

DID AN UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE POPS AND WX THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT BASED ON THE NEWEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
CURRENT RADAR/OBS. ALSO MATCHED UP THE HOURLY T AND TD GRIDS PER
THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS...WHERE A 5 DEGREE OR SO RIDGE TO VALLEY
SPLIT CURRENTLY EXISTS IN THE EAST. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG WITH THE ISSUANCE OF A FRESHENED
SET OF ZONES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF



000
FXUS63 KLMK 250107
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in the first six hours
of the TAF period.  A warm frontal boundary will lift northward
toward the region late tonight.  Widespread showers with some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 25/06Z at KBWG
and after 25/07-08Z at KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds will remain out
of the southeast this evening and into the overnight hours.  With
the frontal boundary and precipitation approaching, ceilings will
drop into the MVFR levels late tonight as well.  Current thinking is
that we should stay above IFR thresholds late tonight and through
early Saturday morning.  However, there is a slight chance that we
could see brief drops to IFR levels.

We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish and move
northward and should generally clear the terminals after noon EDT
Saturday.  A temporary break in the precipitation looks likely with
ceilings scouring out in the afternoon.  Best shots of VFR look to
be down in the KBWG area Saturday afternoon, but we could have MVFR
ceilings hang in around KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds Saturday
afternoon will be stout out of the SW with sustained speeds of
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts being possible.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon
as a low pressure system pushes in from the NW.  This will likely
bring a round of strong/severe storms to the terminals in the 25/21Z
through 26/03Z time frame.

00Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : High
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250107
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in the first six hours
of the TAF period.  A warm frontal boundary will lift northward
toward the region late tonight.  Widespread showers with some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 25/06Z at KBWG
and after 25/07-08Z at KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds will remain out
of the southeast this evening and into the overnight hours.  With
the frontal boundary and precipitation approaching, ceilings will
drop into the MVFR levels late tonight as well.  Current thinking is
that we should stay above IFR thresholds late tonight and through
early Saturday morning.  However, there is a slight chance that we
could see brief drops to IFR levels.

We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish and move
northward and should generally clear the terminals after noon EDT
Saturday.  A temporary break in the precipitation looks likely with
ceilings scouring out in the afternoon.  Best shots of VFR look to
be down in the KBWG area Saturday afternoon, but we could have MVFR
ceilings hang in around KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds Saturday
afternoon will be stout out of the SW with sustained speeds of
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts being possible.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon
as a low pressure system pushes in from the NW.  This will likely
bring a round of strong/severe storms to the terminals in the 25/21Z
through 26/03Z time frame.

00Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : High
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ






000
FXUS63 KLMK 250107
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in the first six hours
of the TAF period.  A warm frontal boundary will lift northward
toward the region late tonight.  Widespread showers with some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 25/06Z at KBWG
and after 25/07-08Z at KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds will remain out
of the southeast this evening and into the overnight hours.  With
the frontal boundary and precipitation approaching, ceilings will
drop into the MVFR levels late tonight as well.  Current thinking is
that we should stay above IFR thresholds late tonight and through
early Saturday morning.  However, there is a slight chance that we
could see brief drops to IFR levels.

We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish and move
northward and should generally clear the terminals after noon EDT
Saturday.  A temporary break in the precipitation looks likely with
ceilings scouring out in the afternoon.  Best shots of VFR look to
be down in the KBWG area Saturday afternoon, but we could have MVFR
ceilings hang in around KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds Saturday
afternoon will be stout out of the SW with sustained speeds of
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts being possible.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon
as a low pressure system pushes in from the NW.  This will likely
bring a round of strong/severe storms to the terminals in the 25/21Z
through 26/03Z time frame.

00Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : High
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KLMK 250107
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Forecast Update...
Updated 907 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

In the near term, some patchy light rain and/or sprinkles will
continue to move across southern KY this evening associated with a
weak mid-level wave pushing eastward.  With dry air in place, a lot
of this precipitation on the radar is not likely hitting the ground,
but is going towards saturating up the column.  Speaking of dry air,
we still have a ton of it across southern Indiana and over portions
of north-central/east-central KY.  Did have to lower dewpoint
forecasts a bit this evening across our northeastern half as the
model blends are still a bit too fast moistening things up.  Further
to the southwest, moisture is beginning to pool and dewpoints in the
lower 40s have already moved into southwest KY.  The column is
expected to moisten considerably overnight.

No real changes on the overnight forecast.  Short term guidance
continues to show the warm front pushing into the region overnight.
Forcing along the warm front is expected to produce widespread
shower activity late tonight into Saturday morning.  No severe
weather is expected, but model soundings do show a little bit of
elevated instability late tonight, so some embedded thunderstorms
are not out of the question.

As for the severe weather threat for Saturday...

Late afternoon guidance continues to show that the warm front will
stall out somewhere along the I-64 corridor in southern Indiana and
northern Kentucky.  The northward placement of this feature
continues to be one of the critical cruxes of the forecast as the
short term and high resolution runs continue to oscillate with
their position of this feature.

What we do know is that in areas south of this boundary, the
multi-model consensus continues to show that some drier mid-level
air will punch into the region tomorrow afternoon resulting in skies
scouring out.  With good insolation, temperatures will likely rise
into the mid-upper 70s with dewpoints pushing into the mid-upper
60s.  The NAM solutions continue to be a little more aggressive with
the moisture allowing dewpoints to rise into the low 70s across
southern KY.  So with temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s, we`re looking at CAPE values of 1500-2700 J/Kg across the
region.  Model proximity soundings continue to show strongly veered
winds and long/sweeping low-level hodographs suggestive of deep
layer shear adequate for supporting rotating updrafts.  Thus, it
still appears that cluster of storms (most likely supercells) will
be possible across much of central KY tomorrow afternoon.

One notable concern is that LCL heights are not all that low across
southern KY tomorrow.  The LCL heights do come downward as one heads
northward toward the warm front.  Thus, the combination of shear and
high instability across southern KY tomorrow may result in more of a
very large hail threat with a slightly lower tornado threat.  We did
see a similar LCL height stratification similar to this back in the
March 2012 outbreak (with tornadic supercells in the vicinity of the
warm front, with large hailers down across south-central KY).

Along and just south of the warm front, is where the main concern
still resides.  This area will have the the shear, instability, and
low LCL heights that may result in more of a tornadic threat, along
with the very large hail and damaging winds. Again, placement of the
actual warm frontal boundary will be the forecast challenge here.

The high resolution model simulations suggest that convection would
likely redevelop in the warm sector along and south of the warm
front tomorrow afternoon.  Model soundings suggest convective
temperatures of 74-77 degrees should get things going which would
probably be in the 3-4PM time frame, highly dependent on the amount
of insolation during the afternoon.

Areas north of the warm frontal boundary (north parts of southern IN
and far northern KY) will likely remain much more stable along with
being much cooler (highs in the upper 50s/lower 60s vs. upper 70s)
with more stratiform rains possible.  However, the northern areas
are not out of the severe weather threat as the warm frontal
placement could end up being further north placing more of the area
in a severe weather risk.

While there is still some uncertainty in the overall evolution of
this system, we want to stress its a good idea to remain vigilant of
the weather tomorrow afternoon and evening.  Residents of southern
IN and central KY should review their severe weather plans and be
ready to put those plans into action before severe weather strikes.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in the first six hours
of the TAF period.  A warm frontal boundary will lift northward
toward the region late tonight.  Widespread showers with some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 25/06Z at KBWG
and after 25/07-08Z at KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds will remain out
of the southeast this evening and into the overnight hours.  With
the frontal boundary and precipitation approaching, ceilings will
drop into the MVFR levels late tonight as well.  Current thinking is
that we should stay above IFR thresholds late tonight and through
early Saturday morning.  However, there is a slight chance that we
could see brief drops to IFR levels.

We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish and move
northward and should generally clear the terminals after noon EDT
Saturday.  A temporary break in the precipitation looks likely with
ceilings scouring out in the afternoon.  Best shots of VFR look to
be down in the KBWG area Saturday afternoon, but we could have MVFR
ceilings hang in around KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds Saturday
afternoon will be stout out of the SW with sustained speeds of
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts being possible.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon
as a low pressure system pushes in from the NW.  This will likely
bring a round of strong/severe storms to the terminals in the 25/21Z
through 26/03Z time frame.

00Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : High
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......MJ
Aviation.......MJ





000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KJKL 242355 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CLINGING ON IN THE FAR EAST
IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POISED TO
BRING SVR WX TO KY LATER ON SATURDAY...FROM THE WEST. THIS
WESTERN LOW/S WARM FRONT WILL SWING TOWARD THE AREA BY DAWN...
AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHWEST INITIALLY THEN LIFTING DEEPER INTO
EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE PCPN WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
NIGHT AS THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY SLOWLY SATURATES...
DESPITE THE HRRR/NAM12 INDICATIONS. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...EXPECT
THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO DROP OFF QUICKLY FOLLOWING SUNSET...EVEN
WITH THE THIN HIGH CLOUDS NOW IN PLACE OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE...
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...MUCH WARMER THAN
LAST NIGHT. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO NUDGE TEMPS IN THE
EASTERN VALLEYS DOWN A BIT...BUT EXPECT THEM TO MIX OUT BY DAWN AS
THE AIR SATURATES AND SHOWERS PUSH OVER THIS PART OF THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT FOR SATURDAY...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THERE IS ALSO A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL DEPENDING ON THE TRACKS OF THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS AND/OR AN
MCS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THAT
CERTAINLY LOOKS POSSIBLE. THESE UPDATED GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR TOWARD DAWN. ALTHOUGH A STORM OR TWO WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL ARRIVAL AND PROGRESS OF THE WARM
FRONT...THE BETTER THREAT WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. DURING THIS
TIME...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY
REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE STORM. FOR THIS...WENT WITH VCTS BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z WITH
LATER UPDATES BETTER ABLE TO REFINE TIMING OF THE WORST
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SWITCHING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND
PICKING UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF




000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS




000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS



000
FXUS63 KPAH 242345
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
645 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SEMO INTO WEST KY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL ENERGY. SHOULD BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TSRA. EXPECT A LULL SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE WARM FRONT SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHWEST INDIANA. IT IS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THAT CONVECTION WILL REFIRE AND LIKELY BECOME SEVERE. POPS WILL
LOWER FARTHER SOUTH WHERE LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LACK OF
SURFACE FOCUS SHOULD START TO LIMIT COVERAGE...THOUGH STORMS
FARTHER IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
SEVERE AS WELL. MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS IN AN ENHANCED OUTLOOK
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. ALL SEVERE WEATHER MODES POSSIBLE
FROM MIDDAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...INCLUDING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHERN IL AT 00Z WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST...WITH GRADUAL
DIMINISHING POPS SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MEDIUM OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR THE EXTENDED.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SKIRT ALONG
THE KY TN BORDER MID WEEK WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
GULF STATES. WITH LOW CAPES AT BEST AND POSITIVE LI`S WOULD NOT
EXPECT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION SHOWALTERS REMAIN
POSITIVE AND K INDICES PEAKING IN THE MID 20S WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION EITHER. PW`S ARE ALSO WELL UNDER
AN INCH SO DO NOT PLAN ON MODERATE OR HEAVY RAIN. WIND PROFILES ARE
NOT IMPRESSIVE EITHER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE WILL
WAIT AND SEE WHAT THE EXTENDED INIT AND COLLABORATION YIELDS BEFORE
FINAL EDITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LOW AND CLOUDS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK WILL RISE TO NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY AND ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS OVER ARKANSAS AND NW TN WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE SLOWLY NE THIS EVENING LIKELY IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH BY
MID EVENING BEFORE OVERSPREADING KEVV AND KOWB BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. VSBYS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR AT LEAST AT KEVV AND KOWB.
RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD LIFT NE OF KCGI AND KPAH AROUND LATE THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY N OF KEVV AND KOWB BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY PARTICULARLY AT KCGI AND KPAH. SATURDAY AFTERNOON IS THE
MAIN TIME OF CONCERN FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RLS




000
FXUS63 KLMK 242316
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
716 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Saturday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

...Severe Weather Possible Saturday Afternoon and Evening...

Severe weather still looks to be a good bet for Saturday afternoon
as a mid level wave and its attendant surface low move through the
lower Ohio Valley. For tonight moisture will be on the increase as a
warm front moves in from the south. Some light showers will be
possible before midnight in association with a weak wave moving
through. However, the better chance for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will be after midnight through mid morning as the warm
front pushes north. These thunderstorms are not expected to be
severe at this time but could produce brief heavy rainfall.

The warm front will stall out across central Kentucky tomorrow
as the surface low drops southeast towards the area. Models continue
to indicate we should have a dry slot punching in south of the
front. This could lead to some clearing with temperatures warming
into the mid to upper 70s. In addition, moisture will continue to
pool south of the front with dewpoints rising into the lower 60s.
Through the afternoon the atmosphere will become unstable south of
the front with CAPE values rising to 1000-1500+ J/kg. Strong mid
level winds will result in effective shear of 50-60 knots. In
addition, helicity values will rise to 250+ m2/s2, with higher
values near the stalled front.

All in all, supercells will be the preferred storm mode with this
system. Very large hail and damaging winds could be present with any
supercell. Some of the storms could produce tornadoes as well,
particularly in the vicinity of the front. There is still some
uncertainty as to where exactly this front will end up. Currently
the NAM is the outlier and furthest to the south, so am leaning away
from its solution slightly. Currently it looks like the highest
threat for strong severe storms will be along and south of the I-64
corridor. However, a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
north of there. These storms look to begin to develop around 3-4 pm
EDT and continue through around 10-11 pm.

In addition to the severe threat, there is some concern with heavy
rainfall potentially leading to some flash flooding. This would be
particularly a concern along the front and just to the north of it
where we could have some training of cells. The best chance for this
would be across southern IN and north central KY. This area has been
the wettest so far this month, so this will bear watching carefully
tomorrow as well.

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

High impact weather is expected to be well south and east of the
region by Sunday morning.  However, a trailing mid-level wave and
cold front will swing through the region and bring an end to the
rainy weather.  It appears that the previous forecast remains on
track with precipitation ending by midday Sunday with high pressure
building into the region.  High pressure at the surface combined
with a northwesterly flow aloft will provide cool and dry weather
for the early part of next week.  Rather deep troughing is expected
to remain over the far eastern US as a series of upper level waves
rotate within a larger gyre aloft.  This closed upper low will
eventually move off to the east by midweek or so.  Temperatures
early next week will remain below seasonal normals with highs in the
upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Overnight lows will cool into the upper
30s to the lower 40s.

Around midweek, closed low coming out of the southern stream will
weaken and become an open wave as it gets into the southern Plains.
As this southern wave move eastward, a stronger northern stream wave
will continue to dive south rather sharply and may phase with that
southern stream system.  Should this occur, we would see rather
cloudy and showery conditions from Wednesday into early Thursday
before ridging builds back in from the west.  As we get into the
latter half of the week, the global ensemble guidance suggest that
ridging will build in from the west as a deep closed low moves off
the US east coast.  This will keep the Ohio Valley in a dry NW flow
with temperatures starting off cool but slowly moderating through
the end of the week.  Unseasonably cool temperatures will be the
rule on Wednesday with highs in the low-mid 60s, but we should see
near normal temps (upper 60s to lower 70s) return by Thursday and
continue into Friday.  Overnight lows look to be generally in the
mid-upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 715 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2015

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals in the first six hours
of the TAF period.  A warm frontal boundary will lift northward
toward the region late tonight.  Widespread showers with some
embedded thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 25/06Z at KBWG
and after 25/07-08Z at KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds will remain out
of the southeast this evening and into the overnight hours.  With
the frontal boundary and precipitation approaching, ceilings will
drop into the MVFR levels late tonight as well.  Current thinking is
that we should stay above IFR thresholds late tonight and through
early Saturday morning.  However, there is a slight chance that we
could see brief drops to IFR levels.

We expect shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish and move
northward and should generally clear the terminals after noon EDT
Saturday.  A temporary break in the precipitation looks likely with
ceilings scouring out in the afternoon.  Best shots of VFR look to
be down in the KBWG area Saturday afternoon, but we could have MVFR
ceilings hang in around KSDF and KLEX.  Surface winds Saturday
afternoon will be stout out of the SW with sustained speeds of
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts being possible.

Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon
as a low pressure system pushes in from the NW.  This will likely
bring a round of strong/severe storms to the terminals in the 25/21Z
through 26/03Z time frame.

00Z TAF Forecaster Confidence
=============================
Ceilings    : Medium
Visibilities: Medium
Winds       : High
=============================

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........EER
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........MJ






000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER



000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER




000
FXUS63 KJKL 241952
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST TODAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER AT THIS TIME IS BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OUT WEST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT NEARLY UNIFORM WITH SOUTHERLY
WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST AS A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
IN THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING
SHOWERS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTERWARD.

HEADING INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS SATURDAY MORNING...THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND THIS MAY LEAD TO A FEW EARLY NON SEVERE STORMS AND
MAY NEED TO ADD THUNDER TO THE TONIGHT PERIOD OF THE HWO. HEADING
INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AFTER EARLIER RAINFALL HAS MOVED
THROUGH...SOME CLEARING SKIES AND RECOVERING ENERGY AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL THEN OCCUR WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE AROUND
1000 TO 1500 J/KG OVER SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY BY THE 18Z TIME
FRAME. THIS ALSO WITH SOME 60 KNOT SFC TO 6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ROTATING STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DUE TO THIS
THREAT SPC HAS PUT THE SOUTHERN AREA IN AN ENHANCED THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND HAVE PUT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN
SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT IN DETAIL. THE ONLY THREAT THAT IS A
BIT QUESTIONABLE TOMORROW WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THOUGH
THE LAST HEAVY RAINFALL WAS LONG ENOUGH AGO THAT MOST PLACES HAVE
BEEN ALLOWED TO DRAIN AND DRY OUT. AS WELL...GREEN HAS GONE INTO
FULL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ALLEVIATING THE RUNOFF POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...THE DISCRETE SUPER CELL POTENTIAL WILL ADD TO THE THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS IF AN MCS DEVELOPS BY LATE IN THE
EVENING ON SATURDAY. MAY NEED TO EVALUATE THIS DURING THE NEXT
MODEL RUN.

HEADING INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS RIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH ANOTHER STRONG SHOT OF RAINFALL WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH
TO INITIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HAVE ADJUSTED THE QPF FOR THE
00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR THIS RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESSENING BY 06Z TO 12Z RANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE EVENT
WILL BE WINDING DOWN. FOR NOW...WILL HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE AND
FLOOD THREAT IN THE HWO AND MAY NEED AN SPS TO FURTHER HIGHLIGHT
THIS. THE ZFP WILL HAVE SEVERE POTENTIAL AND HEAVY RAINFALL
MENTIONED AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

ANY REMAINING RAINFALL SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE SFC LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSH EAST OF KY. BEHIND THIS...
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AS DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING...ALLOWING FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY TO RECEIVE A BREAK FROM THE
WET WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK.  THIS IS DUE TO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND TN VALLEYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A LARGE CUTOFF LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM TX ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EWD ITS
ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO GET WRAPPED INTO A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF RUNS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE ECMWF
SOLUTION HAS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR
TO THAT OF THE GFS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE LOW CUT
OFF AND SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH...CREATING QUITE A
BIT MORE PRECIP THAN THE GFS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK.  WITH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTING IN THIS PART OF
THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO KEEP PRECIP IN DURING THE WED/THURS TIME
FRAME...AND STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND STAY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS AND IN THE 40S FOR LOWS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. DURING THE
DRIER PERIODS...TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR
TOWARD DAWN. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP...SOME OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE. WITH THESE
STORMS...CONDITIONS CAN BE TEMPORARILY REDUCED TO NEAR ALTERNATE
MINS OR BELOW DEPENDING ON THE SEVERITY OF THE STORM. SO HAVE
LOWERED VIS TO ALTERNATE MINS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES WITH VCTS
BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER



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